Search results for: fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA)

Authors: Onu Theresa Chinyere

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The study evaluates the perceived effect of climate change on nutritional status of women in Nigeria. Five research questions and two hypotheses were formulated to guide the study. The study adopted a survey and experimental study research design. One thousand two hundred and fifty one (1,250) respondents were selected from different State in Nigeria using multistage sampling technique. The instruments used to collect data were questionnaire and personal interview on socio economic characteristics of respondents, while Anthropometric data (height and weight) were also used. The data was analyzed using t-test statistic, decided at 50% level of significance. The study found that most states in Nigeria experience high winds, warmer and frequent hot days and night over most land areas, droughts and tides during climate change events. The respondent unanimously agree that climate change causes reduction in food yields, decline in food availability/supply, negatively affecting soil quality, carbon fertilization, decreases flexibilities in technology choices to strengthen food production. The Anthropometric analysis shows that out of 1250 women sampled, 560 (44.8%) maintain normal weight, while 405 (32.40%) women were found to be underweight, since their body mass index is less that 18.5. There were few cases of obesity among the surveyed women since only 80 out of 1250 which represent 6.4% of the women were obese. Bases on the findings, the following recommendations were made-local fertilizer should be encouraged to boost foods yield especially during climate change: women should imbibe the culture of preservation or reservoir that will help in mitigating the effects of climate on food intake and nutritional status, especially during the crisis period, among others.

Keywords: climate change, nutrition anthropometric analysis, obesity culture, environment and women among others

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Authors: Akane Uda, Ami Tabata, Mi An, Misa Komaki, Ryotaro Ito, Mayumi Inoue, Takehiro Sasai, Yusuke Kusano, Toshihiro Kato

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Early intervention is recommended for children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), and an increasing number of children have received support and intervention before school age in recent years. In this study, we systematically reviewed preschool interventions focused on repetitive behaviors observed in children with ASD, which are often observed at younger ages. Inclusion criteria were as follows : (1) Child of preschool status (age ≤ 7 years) with a diagnosis of ASD (including autism, Asperger's, and pervasive developmental disorder) or a parent (caregiver) with a preschool child with ASD, (2) Physician-confirmed diagnosis of ASD (autism, Asperger's, and pervasive developmental disorder), (3) Interventional studies for repetitive behaviors, (4) Original articles published within the past 10 years (2012 or later), (5) Written in English and Japanese. Exclusion criteria were as follows: (1) Systematic reviews or meta-analyses, (2) Conference reports or books. We carefully scrutinized databases to remove duplicate references and used a two-step screening process to select papers. The primary screening included close scrutiny of titles and abstracts to exclude articles that did not meet the eligibility criteria. During the secondary screening, we carefully read the complete text to assess eligibility, which was double-checked by six members at the laboratory. Disagreements were resolved through consensus-based discussion. Our search yielded 304 papers, of which nine were included in the study. The level of evidence was as follows: three randomized controlled trials (level 2), four pre-post studies (level 4b), and two case reports (level 5). Seven articles selected for this study described the effectiveness of interventions. Interventions for repetitive behaviors in preschool children with ASD were categorized as five interventions that directly involved the child and four educational programs for caregivers and parents. Studies that directly intervened with children used early intensive intervention based on applied behavior analysis (Early Start Denver Model, Early Intensive Behavioral Intervention, and the Picture Exchange Communication System) and individualized education based on sensory integration. Educational interventions for caregivers included two methods; (a) education regarding combined methods and practices of applied behavior analysis in addition to classification and coping methods for repetitive behaviors, and (b) education regarding evaluation methods and practices based on children’s developmental milestones in play. With regard to the neurophysiological basis of repetitive behaviors, environmental factors are implicated as possible contributors. We assumed that applied behavior analysis was shown to be effective in reducing repetitive behaviors because analysis focused on the interaction between the individual and the environment. Additionally, with regard to educational interventions for caregivers, the intervention was shown to promote behavioral change in children based on the caregivers' understanding of the classification of repetitive behaviors and the children’s developmental milestones in play and adjustment of the person-environment context led to a reduction in repetitive behaviors.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, early intervention, repetitive behaviors, systematic review

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Authors: S. Pirrello

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Sydney’s booming real estate market has pushed property developers to invest in historically “no-go” areas, which were previously too expensive to develop. These areas are usually near rivers where the sites are underlain by deep alluvial and estuarine sediments. In these ground conditions, conventional bored pile techniques are often not competitive. Contiguous Flight Auger (CFA) and Drilled Displacement (DD) Piles techniques are on the other hand suitable for these ground conditions. This paper deals with the design and construction challenges encountered with these piling techniques for a series of high-rise towers in Sydney’s West. The advantages of DD over CFA piles such as reduced overall spoil with substantial cost savings and achievable rock sockets in medium strength bedrock are discussed. Design performances were assessed with PIGLET. Pile performances are validated in two stages, during constructions with the interpretation of real-time data from the piling rigs’ on-board computer data, and after construction with analyses of results from high strain pile dynamic testing (PDA). Results are then presented and discussed. High Strain testing data are presented as Case Pile Wave Analysis Program (CAPWAP) analyses.

Keywords: contiguous flight auger (CFA) , DEFPIG, case pile wave analysis program (CAPWAP), drilled displacement piles (DD), pile dynamic testing (PDA), PIGLET, PLAXIS, repute, pile performance

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Authors: Parisa Mansour

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Introduction: Early diagnosis of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is extremely important to isolate and treat patients in time, thus preventing the spread of the disease, improving prognosis and reducing mortality. High-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) chest imaging and artificial intelligence (AI)-based analysis of HRCT chest images can play a central role in the treatment of patients with COVID-19. Objective: To investigate different chest HRCT findings in different stages of COVID-19 pneumonia and to evaluate the potential role of artificial intelligence in the quantitative assessment of lung parenchymal involvement in COVID-19 pneumonia. Materials and Methods: This retrospective observational study was conducted between May 1, 2020 and August 13, 2020. The study included 2169 patients with COVID-19 who underwent chest HRCT. HRCT images showed the presence and distribution of lesions such as: ground glass opacity (GGO), compaction, and any special patterns such as septal thickening, inverted halo, mark, etc. HRCT findings of the breast at different stages of the disease (early: andlt) 5 days, intermediate: 6-10 days and late stage: >10 days). A CT severity score (CTSS) was calculated based on the extent of lung involvement on HRCT, which was then correlated with clinical disease severity. Use of artificial intelligence; Analysis of CT pneumonia and quot; An algorithm was used to quantify the extent of pulmonary involvement by calculating the percentage of pulmonary opacity (PO) and gross opacity (PHO). Depending on the type of variables, statistically significant tests such as chi-square, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and post hoc tests were applied when appropriate. Results: Radiological findings were observed in HRCT chest in 1438 patients. A typical pattern of COVID-19 pneumonia, i.e., bilateral peripheral GGO with or without consolidation, was observed in 846 patients. About 294 asymptomatic patients were radiologically positive. Chest HRCT in the early stages of the disease mostly showed GGO. The late stage was indicated by such features as retinal enlargement, thickening and the presence of fibrous bands. Approximately 91.3% of cases with a CTSS = 7 were asymptomatic or clinically mild, while 81.2% of cases with a score = 15 were clinically severe. Mean PO and PHO (30.1 ± 28.0 and 8.4 ± 10.4, respectively) were significantly higher in the clinically severe categories. Conclusion: Because COVID-19 pneumonia progresses rapidly, radiologists and physicians should become familiar with typical TC chest findings to treat patients early, ultimately improving prognosis and reducing mortality. Artificial intelligence can be a valuable tool in treating patients with COVID-19.

Keywords: chest, HRCT, covid-19, artificial intelligence, chest HRCT

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Authors: Chitralekha Ngangbam, Aniruddha Mondal, Naorem Khelchand Singh

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Aluminium (Al) doped In2O3 (Indium Oxide) nanocolumn array was synthesized by glancing angle deposition (GLAD) technique on Si (n-type) substrate for photodetector application. The sample was characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The average diameter of the nanocolumn was calculated from the top view of the SEM image and found to be ∼80 nm. The length of the nanocolumn (~500 nm) was calculated from cross sectional SEM image and it shows that the nanocolumns are perpendicular to the substrate. The EDX analysis confirmed the presence of Al (Aluminium), In (Indium), O (Oxygen) elements in the samples. The XRD patterns of the Al-doped In2O3 nanocolumn show the presence of different phases of the Al doped In2O3 nanocolumn i.e. (222) and (622). Three different peaks were observed from the PL analysis of Al doped In2O3 nanocolumn at 365 nm, 415 nm and 435 nm respectively. The peak at PL emission at 365 nm can be attributed to the near band gap transition of In2O3 whereas the peaks at 415 nm and 435 nm can be attributed to the trap state emissions due to oxygen vacancies and oxygen–indium vacancy centre in Al doped In2O3 nanocolumn. The current-voltage (I–V) characteristics of the Al doped In2O3 nanocolumn based detector was measured through the Au Schottky contact. The devices were then examined under the halogen light (20 W) illumination for photocurrent measurement. The Al-doped In2O3 nanocolumn based optical detector showed high conductivity and low turn on voltage at 0.69 V under white light illumination. A maximum photoresponsivity of 82 A/W at 380 nm was observed for the device. The device shows a high internal gain of ~267 at UV region (380 nm) and ∼127 at visible region (760 nm). Also the rise time and fall time for the device at 650 nm is 0.15 and 0.16 sec respectively which makes it suitable for fast response detector.

Keywords: glancing angle deposition, nanocolumn, semiconductor, photodetector, indium oxide

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Authors: Ibrahim A. Adeniran, Rui F. Zhu, Man S. Wong

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Owing to the insufficiency in the spatial representativeness and continuity of in situ temperature measurements from weather stations (WS), the use of temperature measurement from WS for large-range diurnal analysis in heterogenous landscapes has been limited. This has made the accurate estimation of land surface temperature (LST) from remotely sensed data more crucial. Moreover, the study of dynamic interaction between the atmosphere and the physical surface of the Earth could be enhanced at both annual and diurnal scales by using optimal LST data derived from satellite sensors. The tradeoff between the spatial and temporal resolution of LSTs from satellite’s thermal infrared sensors (TIRS) has, however, been a major challenge, especially when high spatiotemporal LST data are recommended. It is well-known from existing literature that polar satellites have the advantage of high spatial resolution, while geostationary satellites have a high temporal resolution. Hence, this study is aimed at designing a framework for the cross-comparison of LST data from polar and geostationary satellites in a heterogeneous landscape. This could help to understand the relationship between the LST estimates from the two satellites and, consequently, their integration in diurnal LST analysis. Landsat-8 satellite data will be used as the representative of the polar satellite due to the availability of its long-term series, while the Himawari-8 satellite will be used as the data source for the geostationary satellite because of its improved TIRS. For the study area, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HK SAR) will be selected; this is due to the heterogeneity in the landscape of the region. LST data will be retrieved from both satellites using the Split window algorithm (SWA), and the resulting data will be validated by comparing satellite-derived LST data with temperature data from automatic WS in HK SAR. The LST data from the satellite data will then be separated based on the land use classification in HK SAR using the Global Land Cover by National Mapping Organization version3 (GLCNMO 2013) data. The relationship between LST data from Landsat-8 and Himawari-8 will then be investigated based on the land-use class and over different seasons of the year in order to account for seasonal variation in their relationship. The resulting relationship will be spatially and statistically analyzed and graphically visualized for detailed interpretation. Findings from this study will reveal the relationship between the two satellite data based on the land use classification within the study area and the seasons of the year. While the information provided by this study will help in the optimal combination of LST data from Polar (Landsat-8) and geostationary (Himawari-8) satellites, it will also serve as a roadmap in the annual and diurnal urban heat (UHI) analysis in Hong Kong SAR.

Keywords: automatic weather station, Himawari-8, Landsat-8, land surface temperature, land use classification, split window algorithm, urban heat island

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Authors: Stephan Printz, Kristina Lahl, René Vossen, Sabina Jeschke

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Strategic investment decisions are characterized by high innovation potential and long-term effects on the competitiveness of enterprises. Due to the uncertainty and risks involved in this complex decision making process, the need arises for well-structured support activities. A method that considers cost and the long-term added value is the cost-benefit effectiveness estimation. One of those methods is the “profitability estimation focused on benefits – PEFB”-method developed at the Institute of Management Cybernetics at RWTH Aachen University. The method copes with the challenges associated with strategic investment decisions by integrating long-term non-monetary aspects whilst also mapping the chronological sequence of an investment within the organization’s target system. Thus, this method is characterized as a holistic approach for the evaluation of costs and benefits of an investment. This participation-oriented method was applied to business environments in many workshops. The results of the workshops are a library of more than 96 cost aspects, as well as 122 benefit aspects. These aspects are preprocessed and comparatively analyzed with regards to their alignment to a series of risk levels. For the first time, an accumulation and a distribution of cost and benefit aspects regarding their impact and probability of occurrence are given. The results give evidence that the PEFB-method combines precise measures of financial accounting with the incorporation of benefits. Finally, the results constitute the basics for using information technology and data science for decision support when applying within the PEFB-method.

Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria decision, profitability estimation focused on benefits, risk and uncertainty analysis

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Authors: M. Chukhryaeva, R. Skhalyakho, J. Kagazegeva, E. Pocheshkhova, L. Yepiskopossyan, O. Balanovsky, E. Balanovska

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The Middle East is crossroad of different populations at different times. The Kurds are of particular interest in this region. Historical sources suggested that the origin of the Kurds is associated with Medes. Therefore, it was especially interesting to compare gene pool of Kurds with other supposed descendants of Medes-Tats. Yezidis are ethno confessional group of Kurds. Yezidism as a confessional teaching was formed in the XI-XIII centuries in Iraq. Yezidism has caused reproductively isolation of Yezidis from neighboring populations for centuries. Also, isolation helps to retain Yezidian caste system. It is unknown how the history of Yezidis affected its genу pool because it has never been the object of researching. We have examined the Y-chromosome variation in Yezidis and Kurdish males to understand their gene pool. We collected DNA samples from 90 Yezidi males and 24 Kurdish males together with their pedigrees. We performed Y-STR analysis of 17 loci in the samples collected (Yfiler system from Applied Biosystems) and analysis of 42 Y-SNPs by real-time PCR. We compared our data with published data from other Kurdish groups and from European, Caucasian, and West Asian populations. We found that gene pool of Yezidis contains haplogroups common in the Middle East (J-M172(xM67,M12)- 24%, E-M35(xM78)- 9%) and in South Western Asia (R-M124- 8%) and variant with wide distribution area - R-M198(xM458- 9%). The gene pool of Kurdish has higher genetic diversity than Yezidis. Their dominants haplogroups are R-M198- 20,3 %, E-M35- 9%, J-M172- 9%. Multidimensional scaling also shows that the Kurds and Yezidis are part of the same frontier Asian cluster, which, in addition, included Armenians, Iranians, Turks, and Greeks. At the same time, the peoples of the Caucasus and Europe form isolated clusters that do not overlap with the Asian clusters. It is noteworthy that Kurds from our study gravitate towards Tats, which indicates that most likely these two populations are descendants of ancient Medes population. Multidimensional scaling also reveals similarity between gene pool of Yezidis, Kurds with Armenians and Iranians. The analysis of Yezidis pedigrees and their STR variability did not reveal a reliable connection between genetic diversity and caste system. This indicates that the Yezidis caste system is a social division and not a biological one. Thus, we showed that, despite many years of isolation, the gene pool of Yezidis retained a common layer with the gene pool of Kurds, these populations have common spectrum of haplogroups, but Yezidis have lower genetic diversity than Kurds. This study received primary support from the RSF grant No. 16-36-00122 to MC and grant No. 16-06-00364 to EP.

Keywords: gene pool, haplogroup, Kurds, SNP and STR markers, Yezidis

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Authors: Masoud Safdari, Jacob Fish

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Despite vast amount of existing theoretical knowledge, the implementation of a universal multiscale modeling, analysis, and simulation software framework remains challenging. Existing multiscale software and solutions are often domain-specific, closed-source and mandate a high-level of experience and skills in both multiscale analysis and programming. Furthermore, tools currently existing for Atomistic-to-Continuum (AtC) multiscaling are developed with the assumptions such as accessibility of high-performance computing facilities to the users. These issues mentioned plus many other challenges have reduced the adoption of multiscale in academia and especially industry. In the current work, we introduce Multiscale Hub (MsHub), an effort towards making AtC more accessible through cloud services. As a joint effort between academia and industry, MsHub provides a universal web-enabled framework for practical multiscaling. Developed on top of universally acclaimed scientific programming language Python, the package currently provides an open-source, comprehensive, easy-to-use framework for AtC coupling. MsHub offers an easy to use interface to prominent molecular dynamics and multiphysics continuum mechanics packages such as LAMMPS and MFEM (a free, lightweight, scalable C++ library for finite element methods). In this work, we first report on the design philosophy of MsHub, challenges identified and issues faced regarding its implementation. MsHub takes the advantage of a comprehensive set of tools and algorithms developed for AtC that can be used for a variety of governing physics. We then briefly report key AtC algorithms implemented in MsHub. Finally, we conclude with a few examples illustrating the capabilities of the package and its future directions.

Keywords: atomistic, continuum, coupling, multiscale

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Authors: Suphitcha Charoen-Amornkitt, Chokeanand Bussracumpakorn

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The tendency of the Karen backstrap weaving succession has gradually decreased due to the difficulty of weaving techniques and the relocation of the young generation. The Yang Nam Klat Nuea community, Nong Ya Plong District, Phetchaburi, is a Pwo Karen community that is seriously confronted with a lack of cultural heritage. Thus, a group of weavers was formed to revive the knowledge of weaving. However, they have been gradually confronted with culture assimilation to mainstream culture from the desire for marketing acceptance and imperative and forced the extinction of culture due to the disappearance of weaving details and techniques. Although there are practical solutions, i.e., product development, community improvement, knowledge improvement, and knowledge transfer, to inherit the Karen weaving culture, people in the community cannot fulfill their deep intention about the weaving inheritance as most solutions have focused on developing the commercial products and making the income instead of inheriting their knowledge. This research employed qualitative user research with an in-depth user interview to study communal knowledge transfer succession based on the internal involved parties, i.e., four expert weavers, three young weavers, and three 4th generation villagers. The purpose is to explore the correlation and mindset of villagers towards the culture with specific issues, including the psychology of culture, core knowledge and learning methods, cultural inheritance, and cultural engagement. As a result, the existing models of knowledge management mostly focused on tangible strategies, which can notice progress in short terms, such as direct teaching and consistent practicing. At the same time, the motivation and passion of inheritors were abolished while the research found that the young generation who profoundly connected with the textile culture will have a more significant intention to continue the culture. Therefore, this research suggests both internal and external solutions to treat the community. Regarding the internal solutions, family, weaving group, and school have an important role to participate with young villagers by encouraging activities to support the cultivating of Karen’s history, understanding their identities, and adapting the culture as a part of daily life. At the same time, collecting all of the knowledge in the archives, e.g., recorded video, instruction, and books, can crucially prevent the culture from extinction. Regarding the external solutions, this study suggests that working with social media will enhance the intimacy of textile culture, while the community should relieve the roles in marketing competition and start to drive cultural experiences to create a new market position. In conclusion, this research intends to explore the causes and motivation to support the transfer of the culture to the 4th generation villagers and to raise awareness of the diversity of culture in society. With these suggestions and the desire to improve pride and confidence in culture, the community agrees that strengthening the relationships between the young villagers and the weaving culture can bring attention and interest back to the weaving culture.

Keywords: Pwo Karen textile culture, backstrap weaving succession, cultural inheritance, knowledge transfer, knowledge management

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Authors: Ranjith Menon, Abathar Aladi, Hans-Christean Nahser, Maneesh Bhojak, Sacha Nevin, Paul Eldridge

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Background: Spontaneous subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) accounts for approximately 5% of all strokes. Patients with spontaneous SAH (as shown by CT or lumbar puncture) undergo investigations to identify or exclude an underlying structural cause, typically cerebral aneurysm. However in 10 - 20% of cases, no structural cause is found. This includes more than one imaging modality (intracranial MRA, CTA, 4DCTA and/or DSA) and in some spinal MRI. Objective: To determine; 1) If an underlying structural or vascular cause can be identified in non-aneurysmal SAH patients by comparing different imaging modalities at presentation and at follow-up. 2) If MRI spine in patients with non-aneurysmal SAH reveals an underlying SAH cause. 3)The functional outcome at discharge. Results: We performed a retrospective analysis of all non-traumatic SAH patients admitted to the Walton centre from January 2009 to December 2015. There were 1457 patients with non-traumatic SAH admitted to the Walton centre of whom 21.8% (n=300) patients were diagnosed with non-aneurysmal SAH. Males were 65.6% and females were 43.3%. The presenting symptoms were sudden onset headache (93.6%), the focal neurological deficit (12%), loss of consciousness (10.6%) and others (6%). About 285 patients received 2 modalities of imaging (CTA & DSA), 192 received 3 modalities of imaging (CTA, MRA & DSA) and 137 received MRI spine (51/137 whole spine). The modified Rankin Score at discharge were: mRS 0 = 292 (97.33%), mRS 1-2 = 6, mRS 6 = 1 (cardiac arrest in IHD patient) and unknown in 1. Follow-up imaging at 3 to 6 months in 190 (63.3%) patients did not identify an underlying cause. Conclusion: This retrospective analysis concludes that non-aneurysmal SAH has a good functional outcome. A single imaging modality (CTA (4DCTA) or MRA or DSA) was adequate to exclude an underlying cause of SAH and a delayed imaging failed to identify a cause. Routinely performing MRI spine in this group of patients appears not to be necessary according to this evidence.

Keywords: stroke, non-aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage, neuroimaging, modified rankin score

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Authors: Ali panahi-Kosar Khosravi

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Earthquake resilience is one of the most important theoretical and practical concepts in crisis management. Over the past few decades, the rapid growth of urban areas and developing lower urban areas (especially in developing countries) have made them more vulnerable to human and natural crises. Therefore, the resilience of urban communities, especially low-income and unhealthy neighborhoods, is of particular importance. The present study seeks to assess and evaluate the resilience of neighborhoods in the center of district 6 of Tabriz in terms of awareness, knowledge and personal skills, social and psychological capital, managerial-institutional, and the ability to return to appropriate and sustainable conditions. The research method in this research is descriptive-analytical. The authors used library and survey methods to collect information and a questionnaire to assess resilience. The statistical population of this study is the total households living in the four neighborhoods of Shanb Ghazan, Khatib, Gharamalek, and Abuzar alley. Three hundred eighty-four families from four neighborhoods were selected based on the Cochran formula using a simple random sampling method. A one-sample t-test, simple linear regression, and structural equations were used to test the research hypotheses. Findings showed that only two social and psychological awareness and capital indicators in district 6 of Tabriz had a favorable and approved status. Therefore, considering the multidimensional concept of resilience, district 6 of Tabriz is in an unfavorable resilience situation. Also, the findings based on the analysis of variance indicated no significant difference between the neighborhoods of district 6 in terms of resilience, and most neighborhoods are in an unfavorable situation.

Keywords: resilience, statistical analysis, earthquake, district 6 of tabriz

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Authors: Massimiliano Frezza, Sergio Bianchi, Augusto Pianese

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Introduced by Shannon in 1948 in the field of information theory as the average rate at which information is produced by a stochastic set of data, the concept of entropy has gained much attention as a measure of uncertainty and unpredictability associated with a dynamical system, eventually depicted by a stochastic process. In particular, the Shannon entropy measures the degree of order/disorder of a given signal and provides useful information about the underlying dynamical process. It has found widespread application in a variety of fields, such as, for example, cryptography, statistical physics and finance. In this regard, many contributions have employed different measures of entropy in an attempt to characterize the financial time series in terms of market efficiency, market crashes and/or financial crises. The Shannon entropy has also been considered as a measure of the risk of a portfolio or as a tool in asset pricing. This work investigates the theoretical link between the Shannon entropy and the multifractional Brownian motion (mBm), stochastic process which recently is the focus of a renewed interest in finance as a driving model of stochastic volatility. In particular, after exploring the current state of research in this area and highlighting some of the key results and open questions that remain, we show a well-defined relationship between the Shannon (log)entropy and the memory function H(t) of the mBm. In details, we allow both the length of time series and time scale to change over analysis to study how the relation modify itself. On the one hand, applications are developed after generating surrogates of mBm trajectories based on different memory functions; on the other hand, an empirical analysis of several international stock indexes, which confirms the previous results, concludes the work.

Keywords: Shannon entropy, multifractional Brownian motion, Hurst–Holder exponent, stock indexes

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Authors: Watcharapong Yaowarat, Thanee Kaewthummanukul, Waruntorn Jongrungrotsakul

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Noise-induced hearing loss, the most significant occupational and safety problem among the working population, can be effectively prevented through hearing protection devices (HPDs) use. This study aimed to examine whether the following factors, perceived benefits, perceived barriers, perceived self-efficacy, and interpersonal and situational influences about using hearing protection could predict HPD use among 132 qualified workers in production lines at Kaolin Mineral Dressing factories, Uttaradit and Lampang provinces. Data collection was undertaken from August to September 2020 according to the interview form developed by Yaruang et al. (2010), which was assured by a panel of experts and its reliability value was at an acceptable level. Data analysis was performed using logistic regression analysis. The results revealed that only the situational factor of using hearing protection could predict HPD use, which accounted for 21.80 percent of the total variance for HPD use. It was also found that the study sample who had a score for the situational factors on using hearing protection greater than or equal to the median was 4.16 times more likely to use HPDs than those who had lower median scores. (OR = 4.16, p < .05). The results, thus, indicate that organization policies addressing worker health along with enhancing a supportive environment for HPD use, in particular, the provision of various HPDs, are of great importance. Therefore, occupational health nurses and related health teams should enhance workers’ use of HPDs effectively through knowledge dissemination by adopting strategies appropriate to the workplace context leading to an achievement of worker health policy focusing on work safety.

Keywords: predicting factors, hearing protection device, factors predicting hearing protection device use, kaolin mineral dressing factories

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Authors: Jason Gica, Yi-Hsieng Samuel Wu, Deng-Jye Yang, Yi-Chen Chen

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Mycotoxins, harmful secondary metabolites produced by certain fungi species, pose significant risks to animals and humans worldwide. Their stable properties lead to contamination during grain harvesting, transportation, and storage, as well as in processed food products. The prevalence of mycotoxin contamination has attracted significant attention due to its adverse impact on food safety and global trade. The secondary contamination pathway from animal products has been identified as an important route of exposure, posing health risks for livestock and humans consuming contaminated products. Pork, one of the highly consumed meat products in Taiwan according to the National Food Consumption Database, plays a critical role in the nation's diet and economy. Given its substantial consumption, pork processing products are a significant component of the food supply chain and a potential source of mycotoxin contamination. This study is paramount for formulating effective regulations and strategies to mitigate mycotoxin-related risks in the food supply chain. By establishing a reliable analytical method, this research contributes to safeguarding public health and enhancing the quality of pork processing products. The findings will serve as valuable guidance for policymakers, food industries, and consumers to ensure a safer food supply chain in the face of emerging mycotoxin challenges. An innovative and efficient analytical approach is proposed using Ultra-High Performance Liquid Chromatography coupled with Temperature Control Fluorescence Detector Light (UHPLC-TCFLD) to determine multiple mycotoxins in pork meat samples due to its exceptional capacity to detect multiple mycotoxins at the lowest levels of concentration, making it highly sensitive and reliable for comprehensive mycotoxin analysis. Additionally, its ability to simultaneously detect multiple mycotoxins in a single run significantly reduces the time and resources required for analysis, making it a cost-effective solution for monitoring mycotoxin contamination in pork processing products. The research aims to optimize the efficient mycotoxin QuEChERs extraction method and rigorously validate its accuracy and precision. The results will provide crucial insights into mycotoxin levels in pork processing products.

Keywords: multiple-mycotoxin analysis, pork processing products, QuEChERs, UHPLC-TCFLD, validation

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Authors: B. L. Ho, L. Shi, D. F. Wang, V. C. T. Mok

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The brain’s functional connectivity while temporally non-stationary does express consistency at a macro spatial level. The study of stable resting state connectivity patterns hence provides opportunities for identification of diseases if such stability is severely perturbed. A mathematical model replicating the brain’s spatial connections will be useful for understanding brain’s representative geometry and complements the empirical model where it falls short. Empirical computations tend to involve large matrices and become infeasible with fine parcellation. However, the proposed analytical model has no such computational problems. To improve replicability, 92 subject data are obtained from two open sources. The proposed methodology, inspired by financial theory, uses multivariate regression to find relationships of every cortical region of interest (ROI) with some pre-identified hubs. These hubs acted as representatives for the entire cortical surface. A variance-covariance framework of all ROIs is then built based on these relationships to link up all the ROIs. The result is a high level of match between model and empirical correlations in the range of 0.59 to 0.66 after adjusting for sample size; an increase of almost forty percent. More significantly, the model framework provides an intuitive way to delineate between systemic drivers and idiosyncratic noise while reducing dimensions by more than 30 folds, hence, providing a way to conduct attribution analysis. Due to its analytical nature and simple structure, the model is useful as a standalone toolkit for network dependency analysis or as a module for other mathematical models.

Keywords: functional magnetic resonance imaging, multivariate regression, network hubs, resting state functional connectivity

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Authors: Ivan D. Ortega, Juan D. Castro, Alberto Pertuz, Manuel Martinez

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One of the problems considered when scientists talk about climate change is the necessity of utilizing renewable sources of energy, on this category there are many approaches to the problem, one of them is wind energy and wind turbines whose designs have frequently changed along many years trying to achieve a better overall performance on different conditions. From that situation, we get the two main types known today: Vertical and Horizontal axis wind turbines, which have acronyms VAWT and HAWT, respectively. This research aims to understand how well suited a composite material, which is still in development, made with natural origin fibers is for its implementation on vertical axis wind turbines blades under certain wind loads. The study consisted on acquiring the mechanical properties of the materials to be used which where bactris guineenis, also known as pama de lata in Colombia, and adhesive that acts as the matrix which had not been previously studied to the point required for this project. Then, a simplified 3D model of the airfoil was developed and tested under some preliminary loads using finite element analysis (FEA), these loads were acquired in the Colombian Chicamocha Canyon. Afterwards, a more realistic pressure profile was obtained using computational fluid dynamics which took into account the 3D shape of the complete blade and its rotation. Finally, the blade model was subjected to the wind loads using what is known as one way fluidstructure interaction (FSI) and its behavior analyzed to draw conclusions. The observed overall results were positive since the material behaved fairly as expected. Data suggests the material would be really useful in this kind of applications in small to medium size turbines if it is given more attention and time to develop.

Keywords: CFD, FEA, FSI, natural fiber, VAWT

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Authors: K. Shimola, M. Krishnaveni

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This paper examines vulnerability assessment of water resources in a semi-arid basin using the 4-step approach. The vulnerability assessment framework is developed to study the water resources vulnerability which includes the creation of GIS-based vulnerability maps. These maps represent the spatial variability of the vulnerability index. This paper introduces the 4-step approach to assess vulnerability that incorporates a new set of indicators. The approach is demonstrated using a framework composed of a precipitation data for (1975–2010) period, temperature data for (1965–2010) period, hydrological model outputs and the water resources GIS data base. The vulnerability assessment is a function of three components such as exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The current water resources vulnerability is assessed using GIS based spatio-temporal information. Rainfall Coefficient of Variation, monsoon onset and end date, rainy days, seasonality indices, temperature are selected for the criterion ‘exposure’. Water yield, ground water recharge, evapotranspiration (ET) are selected for the criterion ‘sensitivity’. Type of irrigation and storage structures are selected for the criterion ‘Adaptive capacity’. These indicators were mapped and integrated in GIS environment using overlay analysis. The five sub-basins, namely Arjunanadhi, Kousiganadhi, Sindapalli-Uppodai and Vallampatti Odai, fall under medium vulnerability profile, which indicates that the basin is under moderate stress of water resources. The paper also explores prioritization of sub-basinwise adaptation strategies to climate change based on the vulnerability indices.

Keywords: adaptive capacity, exposure, overlay analysis, sensitivity, vulnerability

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Authors: Andrew Green, Jiaming Liu, Kellathur Srinivasan, Raymond Chua

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Introduction: The size of Singapore’s online health product (HP) market (e-commerce) is largely unknown. However, it is recognized that a large majority comes from overseas and thus, unregulated. As buying HP from unauthorized sources significantly compromises public health safety, understanding e-commerce users’ demographics and their perceptions on online HP purchasing becomes a pivotal first step to form a basis for recommendations in Singapore’s pharmacovigilance efforts. Objective: To assess the prevalence of online HP purchasing behaviour among Singaporean e-commerce users. Methodology: This is a cross-sectional study targeting Singaporean e-commerce users recruited from various local websites and online forums. Participants were not randomized into study arms but instead stratified by random sampling method based on participants’ age. A self-administered anonymous questionnaire was used to explore participants' demographics, online HP purchasing behaviour, knowledge and attitude. The association of different variables with online HP purchasing behaviour was analysed using logistic regression statistics. Main outcome measures: Prevalence of HP e-commerce users in Singapore (%) and variables that contribute to the prevalence (adjusted prevalent ratio). Results: The study recruited 372 complete and valid responses. The prevalence of online HP consumers among e-commerce users in Singapore is estimated to be 55.9% (1.7 million consumers). Online purchasing of complementary HP (46.9%) was the most prevalent, followed by medical devices (21.6%) and Western medicine (20.5%). Multivariate analysis showed that age is an independent variable that correlates with the likelihood of buying HP online. The prevalence of HP e-commerce users is highest in the 35-44 age group (64.1%) and lowest among the 16-24 age group (36.4%). The most bought HP through the internet are vitamins and minerals (21.5%), non-herbal (15.9%), herbal (13.9%), weight loss (8.7%) and sports (8.4%) supplements. While the top 3 products are distributed equally between the genders, there is a skew towards female respondents (12.4% in females vs. 4.9% in males) for weight loss supplements and towards males (13.2% in males vs. 3.7% in females) for sports supplements. Even though online consumers are in the younger age brackets, our study found that up to 72.0% of HP bought online are bought for others (buyer’s family and/or friends). Multivariate analysis showed a statistically significant association between purchasing HP through online means and the perceptions that 'internet is safe' (adjusted Prevalence Ratio=1.15, CI 1.03-1.28), 'buying HP online is time saving' (PR=1.17, CI 1.01-1.36), and 'recognition of HP brand' (PR=1.21 CI 1.06-1.40). Conclusions: This study has provided prevalence data for online HP market in Singapore, and has allowed the country’s regulatory body to formulate a targeted pharmacovigilance approach to this growing problem.

Keywords: e-commerce, pharmaceuticals, pharmacovigilance, Singapore

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Authors: Oya A. Urucu, Aslı B. Çiğil, Hatice Birtane, Ece K. Yetimoğlu, Memet Vezir Kahraman

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Chlorpyrifos is an organophosphorus pesticide which can be found in environmental water samples. The efficiency and reuse of a molecularly imprinted polymer (chlorpyrifos - MIP) were investigated for the selective removal of chlorpyrifos residues. MIP was prepared with UV curing thiol-ene polymerization technology by using multifunctional thiol and ene monomers. The thiol-ene curing reaction is a radical induced process, however unlike other photoinitiated polymerization processes, this polymerization process is a free-radical reaction that proceeds by a step-growth mechanism, involving two main steps; a free-radical addition followed by a chain transfer reaction. It assures a very rapidly formation of a uniform crosslinked network with low shrinkage, reduced oxygen inhibition during curing and excellent adhesion. In this study, thiol-ene based UV-curable polymeric materials were prepared by mixing pentaerythritol tetrakis(3-mercaptopropionate), glyoxal bis diallyl acetal, polyethylene glycol diacrylate (PEGDA) and photoinitiator. Chlorpyrifos was added at a definite ratio to the prepared formulation. Chemical structure and thermal properties were characterized by FTIR and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), respectively. The pesticide analysis was performed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The influences of some analytical parameters such as pH, sample volume, amounts of analyte concentration were studied for the quantitative recoveries of the analyte. The proposed MIP method was applied to the determination of chlorpyrifos in river and tap water samples. The use of the MIP provided a selective and easy solution for removing chlorpyrifos from the water.

Keywords: molecularly imprinted polymers, selective removal, thilol-ene, uv-curable polymer

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Authors: Ranitha Guna Selvi D, Ramakrishnan R, Mohideen Abdul Kader

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Purpose: To study the role of Vision centers in managing preventable blindness through refractive error correction in Rural South India. Methods: A retrospective analysis of patients attending 15 Vision centers in Rural South India from a period of January 2021 to December 2021 was done. Medical records of 10,85,81 patients both new and reviewed, 79,562 newly registered patients and 29,019 review patient’s from15 Vision centers were included for data analysis. All the patients registered at the vision center underwent basic eye examination, including visual acuity, IOP measurement, Slit-lamp examination, retinoscopy, Fundus examination etc. Results: A total of 1,08,581 patients were included in the study. Of the total 1,08,581 patients, 79,562 were newly registered patients at Vision center and 29,019 were review patients. Males were 52,201(48.1%) and Females were 56,308(51.9) among them. The mean age of all examined patients was 41.03 ± 20.9 years (Standard deviation) and ranged from 01 – 113 years. Presenting mean visual acuity was 0.31 ± 0.5 in the right eye and 0.31 ± 0.4 in the left eye. Of the 1,08,581 patients 22,770 patients had refractive error in right eye and 22,721 patients had uncorrected refractive error in left eye. Glass prescription was given to 17,178 (15.8%) patients. 8,109 (7.5%) patients were referred to the base hospital for specialty clinic expert opinion or for cataract surgery. Conclusion: Vision center utilizing teleconsultation for comprehensive eye screening unit is a very effective tool in reducing the avoidable visual impairment caused due to uncorrected refractive error. Vision Centre model is believed to be efficient as it facilitates early detection and management of uncorrected refractive errors.

Keywords: refractive error, uncorrected refractive error, vision center, vision technician, teleconsultation

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Authors: Adewale Oladapo, C. A. Afolami

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The study analyzed the effect of micro credit access on poverty reduction among small scale women entrepreneurs in Ondo state, Nigeria. Primary data were collected in a cross-sectional survey of 100 randomly selected woman entrepreneurs. These were drawn in multistage sampling process covering four local government areas (LGAS). Data collected include socio economics characteristics of respondents, access to micro credit, sources of micro credit, and constraints faced by the entrepreneur in sourcing for micro credit. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Foster, Greer and Thorbecke (FGT) index of poverty measure, Gini coefficients and probit regression analysis. The study found that respondents sampled for the survey were within the age range of 31-40 years with mean age 38.6%. Mostly (56.0%) of the respondents were educated to the tune of primary school. Majority (87.0%) of the respondents were married with fairly large household size of (4-5). The poverty index analysis revealed that most (67%) of the sample respondents were poor. The result of the Probit regression analyzed showed that income was a significant variable in micro credit access, while the result of the Gini coefficient revealed a very high income inequality among the respondents. The study concluded that most of the respondents were poor and return on investment (income) was an important variable that increased the chance of respondents in sourcing for micro-credit loan and recommended that income realized by entrepreneur should be properly documented to facilitate loan accessibility.

Keywords: entrepreneurs, income, micro-credit, poverty

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Nouf Aljohani

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The research project described in this presentation focuses on designing and evaluating oral tasks related to students’ needs and levels to foster communication and negotiation of meaning for a group of female Saudi university students. The significance of the current research project lies in its contribution to determining the usefulness of synchronous technology-mediated interactive group discussion in improving different speaking strategies through using synchronous technology. Also, it discovers how to optimize learning outcomes, expand evaluation for online learning tasks and engaging students’ experience in evaluating synchronous interactive tools and tasks. The researcher used SpeakApps, a synchronous technology, that allows the students to practice oral interaction outside the classroom. Such a course of action was considered necessary due to low English proficiency among Saudi students. According to the author's knowledge, the main factor that causes poor speaking skills is that students do not have sufficient time to communicate outside English language classes. Further, speaking and listening course contents are not well designed to match the Saudi learning context. The methodology included designing speaking tasks to match the educational setting; a CALL framework for designing and evaluating tasks; participant involvement in evaluating these tasks in each online session; and an investigation of the factors that led to the successful implementation of Task-based Language Teaching (TBLT) and using SpeakApps. The analysis and data were drawn from the technology acceptance model surveys, a group interview, teachers’ and students’ weekly reflections, and discourse analysis of students’ interactions.

Keywords: CALL evaluation, synchronous technology, speaking skill, task-based language teaching

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Authors: Yogi Sirodz Gaos, Irvan Wiradinata

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In the 500 kW Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plant in Indonesia, an AFT (according to the Tubular Exchanger Manufacturers Association – TEMA) type shell and tube heat exchanger device is used as a pre-heating system for the ORC’s hot water circulation system. The pre-heating source is a waste heat recovery of the brine water, which is tapped from a geothermal power plant. The brine water itself has 5 MWₜₕ capacities, with average temperature of 170ᵒC, and 7 barg working pressure. The aim of this research is to examine the performance of the heat exchanger in the ORC system in a 500 kW ORC power plant. The data for this research were collected during the commissioning on the middle of December 2016. During the commissioning, the inlet temperature and working pressure of the brine water to the shell and tube type heat exchanger was 149ᵒC, and 4.4 barg respectively. Furthermore, the ΔT for the hot water circulation of the ORC system to the heat exchanger was 27ᵒC, with the inlet temperature of 140ᵒC. The pressure in the hot circulation system was dropped slightly from 7.4ᵒC to 7.1ᵒC. The flow rate of the hot water circulation was 80.5 m³/h. The presentation and discussion of a case study on the performance of the heat exchanger on the 500 kW ORC system is presented as follows: (1) the heat exchange duty is 2,572 kW; (2) log mean temperature of the heat exchanger is 13.2ᵒC; (3) the actual overall thermal conductivity is 1,020.6 W/m².K (4) the required overall thermal conductivity is 316.76 W/m².K; and (5) the over design for this heat exchange performance is 222.2%. An analysis of the heat exchanger detailed engineering design (DED) is briefly discussed. To sum up, this research concludes that the shell and tube heat exchangers technology demonstrated a good performance as pre-heating system for the ORC’s hot water circulation system. Further research need to be conducted to examine the performance of heat exchanger system on the ORC’s hot water circulation system.

Keywords: shell and tube, heat exchanger, organic Rankine cycle, performance, commissioning

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Authors: Natasha Correa Vitória Bandeira, Lais Cordeiro Soares, Claudineia Brazil, Luciane Teresa Salvi

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The intense rain event that occurred between February 16 and 18, 2018, in the city of Barcarena in Pará, located in the North region of Brazil, demonstrates the importance of analyzing this type of event. The metropolitan mesoregion of Belem was severely punished by rains much above the averages normally expected for that time of year; this phenomenon affected, in addition to the capital, the municipalities of Barcarena, Murucupi and Muruçambá. Resulting in a great flood in the rivers of the region, whose basins were affected with great intensity of precipitation, causing concern for the local population because in this region, there are located companies that accumulate ore tailings, and in this specific case, the dam of any of these companies, leaching the ore to the water bodies of the Murucupi River Basin. This article aims to characterize this phenomenon through a special analysis of the distribution of rainfall, using data from atmospheric soundings, satellite images, radar images and data from the GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project), in addition to rainfall stations located in the study region. The results of the work demonstrated a dissociation between the data measured in the meteorological stations and the other forms of analysis of this extreme event. Monitoring carried out solely on the basis of data from pluviometric stations is not sufficient for monitoring and/or diagnosing extreme weather events, and investment by the competent bodies is important to install a larger network of pluviometric stations sufficient to meet the demand in a given region.

Keywords: extreme precipitation, great flood, GPCP, ore dam

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Authors: S. B. Rathna Kumar, Pranjali A Ujwane, Panchanan Mohanty

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The present study aimed to develop a battery for assessing speech recognition performance by adults in Marathi. A total of four word lists were developed by considering word frequency, word familiarity, words in common use, and phonemic balance. Each word list consists of 25 words (15 monosyllabic words in CVC structure and 10 monosyllabic words in CVCV structure). Equivalence analysis and performance-intensity function testing was carried using the four word lists on a total of 150 native speakers of Marathi belonging to different regions of Maharashtra (Vidarbha, Marathwada, Khandesh and Northern Maharashtra, Pune, and Konkan). The subjects were further equally divided into five groups based on above mentioned regions. It was found that there was no significant difference (p > 0.05) in the speech recognition performance between groups for each word list and between word lists for each group. Hence, the four word lists developed were equally difficult for all the groups and can be used interchangeably. The performance-intensity (PI) function curve showed semi-linear function, and the groups’ mean slope of the linear portions of the curve indicated an average linear slope of 4.64%, 4.73%, 4.68%, and 4.85% increase in word recognition score per dB for list 1, list 2, list 3 and list 4 respectively. Although, there is no data available on speech recognition tests for adults in Marathi, most of the findings of the study are in line with the findings of research reports on other languages. The four word lists, thus developed, were found to have sufficient reliability and validity in assessing speech recognition performance by adults in Marathi.

Keywords: speech recognition performance, phonemic balance, equivalence analysis, performance-intensity function testing, reliability, validity

Procedia PDF Downloads 356

Authors: Denis Jordan, Daniel Golkowski, Mathias Lukas, Katharina Merz, Caroline Mlynarcik, Max Maurer, Valentin Riedl, Stefan Foerster, Eberhard F. Kochs, Andreas Bender, Ruediger Ilg

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Introduction: So far, clinical assessments that rely on behavioral responses to differentiate coma states or even predict outcome in coma patients are unreliable, e.g. because of some patients’ motor disabilities. The present study was aimed to provide prognosis in coma patients using markers from electroencephalogram (EEG), blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and [18F]-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET). Unsuperwised principal component analysis (PCA) was used for multimodal integration of markers. Methods: Approved by the local ethics committee of the Technical University of Munich (Germany) 20 patients (aged 18-89) with severe brain damage were acquired through intensive care units at the Klinikum rechts der Isar in Munich and at the Therapiezentrum Burgau (Germany). At the day of EEG/fMRI/PET measurement (date I) patients (<3.5 month in coma) were grouped in the minimal conscious state (MCS) or vegetative state (VS) on the basis of their clinical presentation (coma recovery scale-revised, CRS-R). Follow-up assessment (date II) was also based on CRS-R in a period of 8 to 24 month after date I. At date I, 63 channel EEG (Brain Products, Gilching, Germany) was recorded outside the scanner, and subsequently simultaneous FDG-PET/fMRI was acquired on an integrated Siemens Biograph mMR 3T scanner (Siemens Healthineers, Erlangen Germany). Power spectral densities, permutation entropy (PE) and symbolic transfer entropy (STE) were calculated in/between frontal, temporal, parietal and occipital EEG channels. PE and STE are based on symbolic time series analysis and were already introduced as robust markers separating wakefulness from unconsciousness in EEG during general anesthesia. While PE quantifies the regularity structure of the neighboring order of signal values (a surrogate of cortical information processing), STE reflects information transfer between two signals (a surrogate of directed connectivity in cortical networks). fMRI was carried out using SPM12 (Wellcome Trust Center for Neuroimaging, University of London, UK). Functional images were realigned, segmented, normalized and smoothed. PET was acquired for 45 minutes in list-mode. For absolute quantification of brain’s glucose consumption rate in FDG-PET, kinetic modelling was performed with Patlak’s plot method. BOLD signal intensity in fMRI and glucose uptake in PET was calculated in 8 distinct cortical areas. PCA was performed over all markers from EEG/fMRI/PET. Prognosis (persistent VS and deceased patients vs. recovery to MCS/awake from date I to date II) was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) including bootstrap confidence intervals (CI, *: p<0.05). Results: Prognosis was reliably indicated by the first component of PCA (AUC=0.99*, CI=0.92-1.00) showing a higher AUC when compared to the best single markers (EEG: AUC<0.96*, fMRI: AUC<0.86*, PET: AUC<0.60). CRS-R did not show prediction (AUC=0.51, CI=0.29-0.78). Conclusion: In a multimodal analysis of EEG/fMRI/PET in coma patients, PCA lead to a reliable prognosis. The impact of this result is evident, as clinical estimates of prognosis are inapt at time and could be supported by quantitative biomarkers from EEG, fMRI and PET. Due to the small sample size, further investigations are required, in particular allowing superwised learning instead of the basic approach of unsuperwised PCA.

Keywords: coma states and prognosis, electroencephalogram, entropy, functional magnetic resonance imaging, machine learning, positron emission tomography, principal component analysis

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Authors: Wajih Abbassi, Zouhaier Ben Khelifa

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The present research points towards the empirical validation of three options valuation models, the ad-hoc Black-Scholes model as proposed by Berkowitz (2001), the constant elasticity of variance model of Cox and Ross (1976) and the Kou jump-diffusion model (2002). Our empirical analysis has been conducted on a sample of 26,974 options written on three indexes, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 that were negotiated during the year 2007 just before the sub-prime crisis. We start by presenting the theoretical foundations of the models of interest. Then we use the technique of trust-region-reflective algorithm to estimate the structural parameters of these models from cross-section of option prices. The empirical analysis shows the superiority of the Kou jump-diffusion model. This superiority arises from the ability of this model to portray the behavior of market participants and to be closest to the true distribution that characterizes the evolution of these indices. Indeed the double-exponential distribution covers three interesting properties that are: the leptokurtic feature, the memory less property and the psychological aspect of market participants. Numerous empirical studies have shown that markets tend to have both overreaction and under reaction over good and bad news respectively. Despite of these advantages there are not many empirical studies based on this model partly because probability distribution and option valuation formula are rather complicated. This paper is the first to have used the technique of nonlinear curve-fitting through the trust-region-reflective algorithm and cross-section options to estimate the structural parameters of the Kou jump-diffusion model.

Keywords: jump-diffusion process, Kou model, Leptokurtic feature, trust-region-reflective algorithm, US index options

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Authors: Bakytzhan Bimbetov, Abay Zhangabilov, Saule Aitbaeva, Galymzhan Meirambekov

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Mare’s milk (saumal) contains in total about 40 biological components necessary for the human body. The most significant among them are amino acids, fats, carbohydrates, enzymes (lysozyme, amylase), more minerals and vitamins which are well balanced with each other. In Kazakhstan, Company "Eurasia Invest Ltd.” produces a freeze-dried saumal in form of powder by the use of modern German innovative technology by means of evaporating at low temperature (-35°C) with an appropriate pasteurization. Research of freeze-dried biomilk for the qualitative content showed that main ingredients of freshly drown milk are being preserved. We are currently studying medical and dietary properties of freeze-dried mare's milk for diseases of the digestive system, including for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and liver cirrhosis (LC) viral etiology. The studied group consisted of 14 patients with NASH, and 7 patients with LC viral etiology of Class A severity degree as per Child-Pugh. Patients took freeze-dried saumal, preliminary dissolved in boiled warm water (24 g. powder per 200 ml water) 3-4 times a day for a month in conjunction with basic therapy. The results were compared to a control group (11 patients with NASH and LC) who received only basic therapy without mare’s milk. Results of preliminary research showed an improvement of subjective and objective conditions of all patients, but more significant improvement of clinical symptoms and syndromes were observed in the treatment group compared to the control one. Patients with NASH significantly over time compared to the beginning of therapy decreased asthenic and dyspeptic syndromes (p<0,01). Hepatomegaly, identified on the basis of ultrasound prior to treatment was observed in 92,8±2,4% of patients, and after combination therapy hepatomegaly the rate decreased by 14,3%, amounting to 78,5±2,8%. Patients with LC also noted the improvement of asthenic (p<0,01) and dyspeptic (p<0,05) syndromes and hemorrhagic syndrome (nosebleeds and bleeding gums when brushing your teeth, p<0,05), and jaundice. Laboratory study also showed improvement in the research group, but more significant changes were observed in the experimental group. Group of patients with NASH showed a significant improvement of index in cytolysis in conjunction with a combination therapy (p<0,05). In the control group, these indicators were also improved, but they were not statistically reliable (p>0,05). Markers of liver failure were additionally studied during the study of laboratory parameters in patients with liver cirrhosis, in particular, bilirubin, albumin and prothrombin index (PTI). Combined therapy with the use of basic treatment and mare's milk showed a significant improvement in cytolysis and bilirubin (p<0,05). In our opinion, a very important and interesting fact is that, in conjunction with basic therapy, the use of mare's milk revealed an improvement of liver function in the form of normalized PTI and albumin in patients with liver cirrhosis viral etiology. Results of this work have shown therapeutic efficiency of the use of mare's milk in complex treatment of patients with liver disease and require further in-depth study.

Keywords: liver cirrhosis, non-alcohol steatohepatitis, saumal, mare’s milk

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Authors: Donghun Jeong, Somyoung Shin, Yeoil Yun

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A large-scale traffic accident refers to an accident in which more than three people die or more than thirty people are dead or injured. In order to prevent a large-scale traffic accident from causing a big loss of lives or establish effective improvement measures, it is important to analyze accident situations in-depth and understand the effects of major accident variables on an accident. This study aims to analyze the contribution of individual accident variables to accident results, based on the accurate reconstruction of traffic accidents using PC-Crash’s Multi-Body, which is an accident reconstruction program, and simulation of each scenario. Multi-Body system of PC-Crash accident reconstruction program is used for multi-body accident reconstruction that shows motions in diverse directions that were not approached previously. MB System is to design and reproduce a form of body, which shows realistic motions, using several bodies. Targeting the 'freight truck cargo drop accident around the Changwon Tunnel' that happened in November 2017, this study conducted a simulation of the freight truck cargo drop accident and analyzed the contribution of individual accident majors. Then on the basis of the driving speed, cargo load, and stacking method, six scenarios were devised. The simulation analysis result displayed that the freight car was driven at a speed of 118km/h(speed limit: 70km/h) right before the accident, carried 196 oil containers with a weight of 7,880kg (maximum load: 4,600kg) and was not fully equipped with anchoring equipment that could prevent a drop of cargo. The vehicle speed, cargo load, and cargo anchoring equipment were major accident variables, and the accident contribution analysis results of individual variables are as follows. When the freight car only obeyed the speed limit, the scattering distance of oil containers decreased by 15%, and the number of dropped oil containers decreased by 39%. When the freight car only obeyed the cargo load, the scattering distance of oil containers decreased by 5%, and the number of dropped oil containers decreased by 34%. When the freight car obeyed both the speed limit and cargo load, the scattering distance of oil containers fell by 38%, and the number of dropped oil containers fell by 64%. The analysis result of each scenario revealed that the overspeed and excessive cargo load of the freight car contributed to the dispersion of accident damage; in the case of a truck, which did not allow a fall of cargo, there was a different type of accident when driven too fast and carrying excessive cargo load, and when the freight car obeyed the speed limit and cargo load, there was the lowest possibility of causing an accident.

Keywords: accident reconstruction, large-scale traffic accident, PC-Crash, MB system

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