Search results for: modelling

Authors: Panos Xenos, Milton Nektarios, John Yfantopoulos

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Background: Policy makers, professional organizations and payers have introduced a variety of initiatives and reforms for the health systems worldwide, aimed at improving hospital efficiency. Their efforts are concentrated in two main categories: to constrain increasing healthcare costs and to enhance quality of services provided. Research Objectives: This study examines the efficiency of 112 Greek public hospitals for the year 2009, evaluates the importance of bootstrapping techniques and investigates the effect of contextual factors on hospital efficiency. Furthermore, the effect of qualitative evidence, on hospital efficiency is explored using data from 28 large hospitals. Methods: We applied Data Envelopment Analysis, augmented by bootstrapping techniques, to estimate efficiency scores. In order to measure the effect of environmental factors on hospital efficiency we used Tobit regression analysis. The significance of our models is evaluated using statistical tests to compare distributions. Results: The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test between the original and the bootstrap-corrected efficiency indicates that their distributions are significantly different (p-value<0.01). The environmental factors, that seem to influence efficiency, are Occupancy Rating and the ratio between Outpatient Visits and Inpatient Days. Results indicate that the inclusion of the quality variable in DEA modelling generates statistically significant variations in efficiency scores (p-value<0.05). Conclusions: The inclusion of quality variables and the use of bootstrap resampling in efficiency analysis impose a statistically significant effect on the distribution of efficiency scores. As a policy conclusion we highlight the importance of these methods on hospital efficiency analysis and, by implication, on healthcare resource allocation.

Keywords: hospitals, efficiency, quality, data envelopment analysis, Greek public hospital sector

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Authors: Raymond E. Raguindin

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Objective: This research studied the teaching improvement of daycare workers in imitation, joint attention, and language activities using the play-based early intervention training program in Cabanatuan City, Nueva Ecija. Methods: Focus group discussions were developed to explore the attitude, beliefs, and practices of daycare workers. Results: Findings of the study revealed that daycare workers have existing knowledge and experience in teaching children with autism. Their workshops on managing inappropriate behaviors of children with autism resulting in a general positive perception of accepting and teaching children with autism in daycare centers. Play based activities were modelled and participated in by daycare workers. These include demonstration, modelling, prompting and providing social reinforcers as reward. Five lectures and five training days were done to implement the training program. Daycare workers’ levels of skill in teaching imitation, joint attention and language were gathered before and after the participation in the training program. Findings suggest significant differences between pre-test and post test scores. They have shown significant improvement in facilitating imitation, joint attention, and language children with autism after the play-based early intervention training. They were able to initiate and sustain imitation, joint attention, and language activities with adequate knowledge and confidence. Conclusions: 1. Existing attitudes and beliefs greatly influenced the positive delivery mode of instruction. 2. Teacher-directed approach to improve attention, imitation, joint attention, and language of children with autism can be acquired by daycare workers. 3. Teaching skills and experience can be used as reference and basis for identifying future training needs.

Keywords: early intervention, imitation, joint attention, language

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Authors: F. Longo, G. Granello, G. Tecchio, F. Da Porto

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Unreinforced masonry (URM) infill walls are widely used throughout the world, also in seismic prone regions, as partitions in reinforced concrete building frames. Even if they do not represent structural elements, they can dramatically affect both strength and stiffness of RC structures by acting as a diagonal strut, modifying shear and displacements distribution along the building height, with uncertain consequences on structural safety. In the last decades, many refined models have been developed to describe infill walls effect on frame structural behaviour, but generally restricted to in-plane actions. Only very recently some new approaches were implemented to consider in-plane/out-of-plane interaction of URM infill walls in progressive collapse simulations. In the present work, a particularly promising macro-model was adopted for the progressive collapse analysis of infilled RC frames. The model allows to consider the bi-directional interaction in terms of displacement and strength capacity for URM infills, and to remove the infill contribution when the URM wall is supposed to fail during the analysis process. The model was calibrated on experimental data regarding two different URM panels thickness, modelling with particular care the post-critic softening branch. A frame specimen set representing the most common Italian structures was built considering two main normative approaches: a traditional design philosophy, corresponding to structures erected between 50’s-80’s basically designed to support vertical loads, and a seismic design philosophy, corresponding to current criteria that take into account horizontal actions. Non-Linear Static analyses were carried out on the specimen set and some preliminary evaluations were drawn in terms of different performance exhibited by the RC frame when the contemporary effect of the out-of-plane damage is considered for the URM infill.

Keywords: infill Panels macromodels, in plane-out of plane interaction, RC frames, URM infills

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Authors: K. S. Sivakumaran, Bo Chen

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The floor beams of steel buildings, cold-formed steel floor joists, in particular, often require large web openings, which may affect their shear capacities. A cost effective way to mitigate the detrimental effects of such openings is to weld/fasten reinforcements. A difficulty associated with an experimental investigation to establish suitable reinforcement schemes for openings in shear zone is that moment always coexists with the shear, and thus, it is impossible to create pure shear state in experiments, resulting in moment influenced results. However, finite element analysis can be conveniently used to investigate the pure shear behaviour of webs including webs with reinforced opening. This paper presents that the details associated with the finite element analysis of thick/thin-plates (representing the web of hot-rolled steel beam, and the web of a cold-formed steel member) having a large reinforced openings. The study considered thin simply supported rectangular plates subjected to inplane shear loadings until failure (including post-buckling behaviour). The plate was modelled using geometrically non-linear quadrilateral shell elements, and non-linear stress-strain relationship based on experiments. Total Lagrangian (TL) with large displacement/small strain formulation was used for such analysis. The model also considered the initial geometric imperfections. This study considered three reinforcement schemes, namely, flat, lip, and angle reinforcements. This paper discusses the modelling considerations and presents the results associated with the various reinforcement schemes under consideration. The paper briefly compares the analysis results with the experimental results.

Keywords: cold-formed steel, finite element analysis, opening, reinforcement, shear resistance

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Authors: Omer Altaf, Liam Wotherspoon, Rolando Orense

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The Wairau Plains are located in the northeast of the South Island of New Zealand, with alluvial deposits of fine-grained silts and sands combined with low-lying topography suggesting the presence of liquefiable deposits over significant portions of the region. Liquefaction manifestations were observed in past earthquakes, including the 1848 Marlborough and 1855 Wairarapa earthquakes, and more recently during the 2013 Lake Grassmere and 2016 Kaikōura earthquakes. Therefore, a good understanding of the deposits that may be susceptible to liquefaction is important for land use planning in the region and to allow developers and asset owners to appropriately address their risk. For this purpose, multiple approaches have been employed to develop regional-scale maps showing the liquefaction vulnerability categories for the region. After applying semi-qualitative criteria linked to geologic age and deposit type, the higher resolution surface mapping of geomorphologic characteristics encompassing the Wairau River and the Opaoa River was used for screening. A detailed basin geologic model developed for groundwater modelling was analysed to provide a higher level of resolution than the surface-geology based classification. This is used to identify the thickness of near-surface gravel deposits, providing an improved understanding of the presence or lack of potentially non-liquefiable crust deposits. This paper describes the methodology adopted for this project and focuses on the influence of geomorphic characteristics and analysis of the detailed geologic basin model on the liquefaction classification of the Lower Wairau Plains.

Keywords: liquefaction, earthquake, cone penetration test, mapping, liquefaction-induced damage

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Authors: Omolara Lade, David Oloke

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The approach to water management worldwide is currently in transition, with a shift from centralised infrastructures to greater consideration of decentralised technologies, such as rainwater harvesting (RWH). However, in Nigeria, implementation of sustainable water management, such as RWH systems, is inefficient and social, environmental and technical barriers, concerns and knowledge gaps exist, which currently restrict its widespread utilisation. This inefficiency contributes to water scarcity, water-borne diseases, and loss of lives and property due to flooding. Meanwhile, several RWH technologies have been developed to improve SWM through both demand and storm-water management. Such technologies involve the use of reinforced concrete cement (RCC) storage tanks, surface water reservoirs and ground-water recharge pits as storage systems. A framework was developed to assess the significance and extent of water management problems, match the problems with existing RWH-based solutions and develop a robust ready-to-use decision support tool that can quantify the costs and benefits of implementing several RWH-based storage systems. The methodology adopted was the mixed method approach, involving a detailed literature review, followed by a questionnaire survey of household respondents, Nigerian Architects and Civil Engineers and focus group discussion with stakeholders. 18 selection attributes have been defined and three alternatives have been identified in this research. The questionnaires were analysed using SPSS, excel and selected statistical methods to derive weightings of the attributes for the tool. Following this, three case studies were modelled using RainCycle software. From the results, the MDA model chose RCC tank as the most appropriate storage system for RWH.

Keywords: rainwater harvesting, modelling, hydraulic assessment, whole life cost, decision support system

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Authors: Usama Mohamed, Sam Booth, Aliysn J. Nedoma

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As part of the transition to electric vehicles, there has been a recent increase in demand for battery manufacturing. Cathodes typically account for approximately 50% of the total lithium-ion battery cell cost and are a pivotal factor in determining the viability of new industrial infrastructure. Cathodes which offer lower costs whilst maintaining or increasing performance, such as nickel-rich layered cathodes, have a significant competitive advantage when scaling up the manufacturing process. This project evaluates the techno-economic value proposition of an integrated industrial scale cathode active material (CAM) production process, closing the mass and energy balances, and optimizing the operation conditions using a sensitivity analysis. This is done by developing a process model of a co-precipitation synthesis route using Aspen Plus software and validated based on experimental data. The mechanism chemistry and equilibrium conditions were established based on previous literature and HSC-Chemistry software. This is then followed by integrating the energy streams, adding waste recovery and treatment processes, as well as testing the effect of key parameters (temperature, pH, reaction time, etc.) on CAM production yield and emissions. Finally, an economic analysis estimating the fixed and variable costs (including capital expenditure, labor costs, raw materials, etc.) to calculate the cost of CAM ($/kg and $/kWh), total plant cost ($) and net present value (NPV). This work sets the foundational blueprint for future research into sustainable industrial scale processes for CAM manufacturing.

Keywords: cathodes, industrial production, nickel-rich layered cathodes, process modelling, techno-economic analysis

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Authors: Hajar Hajmohammadi, Paul Pfeffer, Anna De Simoni, Jim Cole, Chris Griffiths, Sally Hull, Benjamin Heydecker

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Background: There is strong interest in the relationship between short-term air pollution exposure and human health. Most studies in this field focus on serious health effects such as death or hospital admission, but air pollution exposure affects many people with less severe impacts, such as exacerbations of respiratory conditions. A lack of quantitative analysis and inconsistent findings suggest improved methodology is needed to understand these effectsmore fully. Method: We developed a time series regression model to quantify the relationship between daily NOₓ concentration and Asthma exacerbations requiring oral steroids from primary care settings. Explanatory variables include daily NOₓ concentration measurements extracted from 8 available background and roadside monitoring stations in east London and daily ambient temperature extracted for London City Airport, located in east London. Lags of NOx concentrations up to 21 days (3 weeks) were used in the model. The dependent variable was the daily number of oral steroid courses prescribed for GP registered patients with asthma in east London. A mixed distribution model was then fitted to the significant lags of the regression model. Result: Results of the time series modelling showed a significant relationship between NOₓconcentrations on each day and the number of oral steroid courses prescribed in the following three weeks. In addition, the model using only roadside stations performs better than the model with a mixture of roadside and background stations.

Keywords: air pollution, time series modeling, public health, road transport

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Authors: R. Bakr, M. Elmeligy, A. Ibrahim

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When the building loads are relatively small, challenges are often facing the foundation design especially when inappropriate soil conditions exist. These may be represented in the existence of soft soil in the upper layers of soil while sandy soil or firm cohesive soil exist in the deeper layers. In such cases, the design becomes infeasible if the piles are extended to the deeper layers, especially when there are sandy layers existing at shallower depths underlain by stiff clayey soil. In this research, models of piles terminated in sand underlain by clay soils are numerically simulated by different modelling theories. Finite element software, Plaxis 3-D Foundation was used to evaluate the pile behavior under different loading scenarios. The standard static load test according to ASTM D-1143 was simulated and compared with the real-life loading scenario. The results showed that the pile behavior obtained from the current static load test do not realistically represent that obtained from real-life loading. Attempts were carried out to capture the proper numerical loading scenario that simulates the pile behavior in real-life loading including the long-term effect. A modified method based on this research findings is proposed for the static pile loading tests. Field loading tests were carried out to validate the new method. Results obtained from both numerical and field tests by using the modified method prove that this method is more accurate in predicting the pile behavior in sand soil underlain by clay more than the current standard static load.

Keywords: numerical simulation, static load test, pile behavior, sand underlain with clay, creep

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Authors: Lian Song, Shao-Bo Kang, Bo Yang

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Concrete filled steel tubular (CFST) structure has been widely used in construction practices due to its superior performances under various loading conditions. However, limited studies are available when this type of structure is subjected to impact or explosive loads. Current methods in relevant design codes are not specific for preventing progressive collapse of CFST structures. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out numerical simulations on CFST structure under impact loads. In this study, finite element analyses are conducted on the mechanical behaviour of composite frames which composed of CFST columns and steel beams subject to impact loading. In the model, CFST columns are simulated using finite element software ABAQUS. The model is verified by test results of solid and hollow CFST columns under lateral impacts, and reasonably good agreement is obtained through comparisons. Thereafter, a multi-scale finite element modelling technique is developed to evaluate the behaviour of a five-storey three-span planar composite frame. Alternate path method and direct simulation method are adopted to perform the dynamic response of the frame when a supporting column is removed suddenly. In the former method, the reason for column removal is not considered and only the remaining frame is simulated, whereas in the latter, a specific impact load is applied to the frame to take account of the column failure induced by vehicle impact. Comparisons are made between these two methods in terms of displacement history and internal force redistribution, and design recommendations are provided for the design of CFST structures under impact loads.

Keywords: planar composite frame, collapse analysis, impact loading, direct simulation method, alternate path method

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Authors: Esha Saha, Pradip Kumar Ray

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A hospital inventory comprises of a large number and great variety of items for the proper treatment and care of patients, such as pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, surgical items, etc. Improper management of these items, i.e. stockouts, may lead to delay in treatment or other fatal consequences, even death of the patient. So, generally the hospitals tend to overstock items to avoid the risk of stockout which leads to unnecessary investment of money, difficulty in storing, more expiration and wastage, etc. Thus, in such challenging environment, it is necessary for hospitals to follow an inventory policy considering the stochasticity of demand in a hospital. Statistical analysis captures the correlation of patient condition based on bed occupancy with the patient demand which changes stochastically. Due to the dependency on bed occupancy, the markov model is developed that helps to map the changes in demand of hospital inventory based on the changes in the patient condition represented by the movements of bed occupancy states (acute care state, rehabilitative state and long-care state) during the length-of-stay of patient in a hospital. An inventory policy is developed for a hospital based on the fulfillment of patient demand with the objective of minimizing the frequency and quantity of placement of orders of inventoried items. The analytical structure of the model based on probability calculation is provided to show the optimal inventory-related decisions. A case-study is illustrated in this paper for the development of hospital inventory model based on patient demand for multiple inpatient pharmaceutical items. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the impact of inventory-related parameters on the developed optimal inventory policy. Therefore, the developed model and solution approach may help the hospital managers and pharmacists in managing the hospital inventory in case of stochastic demand of inpatient pharmaceutical items.

Keywords: bed occupancy, hospital inventory, markov model, patient condition, pharmaceutical items

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Authors: Ashkan Ebadi, Adam Krzyzak

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Recommender systems, also known as recommender engines, have become an important research area and are now being applied in various fields. In addition, the techniques behind the recommender systems have been improved over the time. In general, such systems help users to find their required products or services (e.g. books, music) through analyzing and aggregating other users’ activities and behavior, mainly in form of reviews, and making the best recommendations. The recommendations can facilitate user’s decision making process. Despite the wide literature on the topic, using multiple data sources of different types as the input has not been widely studied. Recommender systems can benefit from the high availability of digital data to collect the input data of different types which implicitly or explicitly help the system to improve its accuracy. Moreover, most of the existing research in this area is based on single rating measures in which a single rating is used to link users to items. This paper proposes a highly accurate hotel recommender system, implemented in various layers. Using multi-aspect rating system and benefitting from large-scale data of different types, the recommender system suggests hotels that are personalized and tailored for the given user. The system employs natural language processing and topic modelling techniques to assess the sentiment of the users’ reviews and extract implicit features. The entire recommender engine contains multiple sub-systems, namely users clustering, matrix factorization module, and hybrid recommender system. Each sub-system contributes to the final composite set of recommendations through covering a specific aspect of the problem. The accuracy of the proposed recommender system has been tested intensively where the results confirm the high performance of the system.

Keywords: tourism, hotel recommender system, hybrid, implicit features

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Authors: Getiye Dejenu Kibret, Daniel Demant, Andrew Hayen

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Introduction: In Ethiopia, more than half of newborn babies do not have access to Emergency Obstetric and Neonatal Care (EmONC) services. Understanding the effect of distance to health facilities on service use and neonatal survival is crucial to recommend policymakers and improve resource distribution. We aimed to investigate the effect of distance to health services on maternal service use and neonatal mortality. Methods: We implemented a data linkage method based on geographic coordinates and calculated straight-line (Euclidean) distances from the Ethiopian 2016 demographic and health survey clusters to the closest health facility. We computed the distance in ESRI ArcGIS Version 10.3 using the geographic coordinates of DHS clusters and health facilities. Generalised Structural Equation Modelling (GSEM) was used to estimate the effect of distance on neonatal mortality. Results: Poor geographic accessibility to health facilities affects maternal service usage and increases the risk of newborn mortality. For every ten kilometres (km) increase in distance to a health facility, the odds of neonatal mortality increased by 1.33% (95% CI: 1.06% to 1.67%). Distance also negatively affected antenatal care, facility delivery and postnatal counselling service use. Conclusions: A lack of geographical access to health facilities decreases the likelihood of newborns surviving their first month of life and affects health services use during pregnancy and immediately after birth. The study also showed that antenatal care use was positively associated with facility delivery service use and that both positively influenced postnatal care use, demonstrating the interconnectedness of the continuum of care for maternal and neonatal care services. Policymakers can leverage the findings from this study to improve accessibility barriers to health services.

Keywords: acessibility, distance, maternal health service, neonatal mortality

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Authors: Roman Kulikov, Svetlana Kolesnikova

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Last decade Cloud Computing technologies have been rapidly becoming ubiquitous. Each year more and more organizations, corporations, internet services and social networks trust their business sensitive information to Public Cloud. The data storage in Public Cloud is protected by security mechanisms such as firewalls, cryptography algorithms, backups, etc.. In this way, however, only outsider attacks can be prevented, whereas virtualization tools can be easily compromised by insider. The protection of Public Cloud’s critical elements from internal intruder remains extremely challenging. A hypervisor, also called a virtual machine manager, is a program that allows multiple operating systems (OS) to share a single hardware processor in Cloud Computing. One of the hypervisor's functions is to enforce access control policies. Furthermore, it prevents guest OS from disrupting each other and from accessing each other's memory or disk space. Hypervisor is the one of the most critical and vulnerable elements in Cloud Computing infrastructure. Nevertheless, it has been poorly protected from being compromised by insider. By exploiting certain vulnerabilities, privilege escalation can be easily achieved in insider attacks on hypervisor. In this way, an internal intruder, who has compromised one process, is able to gain control of the entire virtual machine. Thereafter, the consequences of insider attacks in Public Cloud might be more catastrophic and significant to virtual tools and sensitive data than of outsider attacks. So far, almost no preventive security countermeasures have been developed. There has been little attention paid for developing models to assist risks mitigation strategies. In this paper formal model of insider attacks on hypervisor is designed. Our analysis identifies critical hypervisor`s vulnerabilities that can be easily compromised by internal intruder. Consequently, possible conditions for successful attacks implementation are uncovered. Hence, development of preventive security countermeasures can be improved on the basis of the proposed model.

Keywords: insider attack, public cloud, cloud computing, hypervisor

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Authors: Maryam Shirmohammadi, Prasad K. D. V. Yarlagadda, YuanTong Gu

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The mechanical damage on the agricultural crop during and after harvesting can create high volume of damage on tissue. Uniaxial compression and tensile loading were performed on flesh and peel samples of pumpkin. To investigate the structural changes on the tissue, Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) was used to capture the cellular structure change before and after loading on tissue for tensile, compression and indentation tests. To obtain required mechanical properties of tissue for the finite element analysis (FEA) model, laser measurement sensors were used to record the lateral displacement of tissue under the compression loading. Uniaxial force versus deformation data were recorded using Universal Testing Machine for both tensile and compression tests. The experimental Results were employed to develop a material model with failure criteria. The results obtained by the simulation were compared with those obtained by experiments. Note that although modelling food materials’ behaviour is not a new concept however, majority of previous studies focused on elastic behaviour and damages under linear limit, this study, however, has developed FEA models for tensile and compressive loading of pumpkin flesh and peel samples using, as the first study, both elastic and elasto-plastic material types. In addition, pumpkin peel and flesh tissues were considered as two different materials with different properties under mechanical loadings. The tensile and compression loadings were used to develop the material model for a composite structure for FEA model of mechanical peeling of pumpkin as a tough skinned vegetable.

Keywords: compressive and tensile response, finite element analysis, poisson’s ratio, elastic modulus, elastic and plastic response, rupture and bio-yielding

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Authors: K. Bhojnadh, M. Fiddler, D. Cheshire

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An investigation into the Kutta effect on the trailing edge of a subsonic aerofoil was conducted which led to an analysis using Ansys Fluent to determine the effect of flow separation over a NACA 0012 aerofoil. This aerofoil was subjected to oscillations to create an unsteady flow over the aerofoil, therefore, creating turbulence, with unsteady aerodynamics playing a key role to determine the flow regimes when the aerofoil is subjected to different angles of attack along with varying Reynolds numbers. Many theories were evolved to determine the flow parameters of a 2-D aerofoil in these unsteady conditions because they behave unpredictably at the trailing edge when subjected to a different angle of attack. The shear area observed in the boundary layer at the trailing edge tends towards an unsteady turbulent flow even at small angles of attack, creating drag as the flow separates, reducing the aerodynamic performance of aerofoil. In this paper, research was conducted to determine the effect of Kutta circulation over the aerofoil and the effect of that circulation in reducing the effect of pressure and boundary layer distribution over the aerofoil. The effect of circulation is observed by using Ansys Fluent by using varying flow parameters and differential schemes to observe the flow behaviour on the aerofoil. Initially, steady flow analysis was conducted on the aerofoil to determine the effect of circulation, and it was noticed that the effect of circulation could only be properly observed when the aerofoil is subjected to oscillations. Therefore, that was modelled by using Ansys user-defined functions, which define the motion of the aerofoil by creating a dynamic mesh on the aerofoil. Initial results were observed, and further development of the dynamic mesh functions in Ansys is taking place. This research will determine the overall basic principles of unsteady flow aerodynamics applied to the investigation of Kutta related circulation, and gives an indication regarding the generation of vortices which is discussed further in this paper.

Keywords: circulation, flow seperation, turbulence modelling, vortices

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Authors: Z. B. Ibrahim, N. Ismail, K. I. Othman

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Fuzzy Differential Equations (FDEs) play an important role in modelling many real life phenomena. The FDEs are used to model the behaviour of the problems that are subjected to uncertainty, vague or imprecise information that constantly arise in mathematical models in various branches of science and engineering. These uncertainties have to be taken into account in order to obtain a more realistic model and many of these models are often difficult and sometimes impossible to obtain the analytic solutions. Thus, many authors have attempted to extend or modified the existing numerical methods developed for solving Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) into fuzzy version in order to suit for solving the FDEs. Therefore, in this paper, we proposed the development of a fuzzy version of three-point block method based on Block Backward Differentiation Formulas (FBBDF) for the numerical solution of first order FDEs. The three-point block FBBDF method are implemented in uniform step size produces three new approximations simultaneously at each integration step using the same back values. Newton iteration of the FBBDF is formulated and the implementation is based on the predictor and corrector formulas in the PECE mode. For greater efficiency of the block method, the coefficients of the FBBDF are stored at the start of the program. The proposed FBBDF is validated through numerical results on some standard problems found in the literature and comparisons are made with the existing fuzzy version of the Modified Simpson and Euler methods in terms of the accuracy of the approximated solutions. The numerical results show that the FBBDF method performs better in terms of accuracy when compared to the Euler method when solving the FDEs.

Keywords: block, backward differentiation formulas, first order, fuzzy differential equations

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Authors: Mehdi Habibagahi, Shami Nejadi, Ata Aminfar

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A significant degradation factor that impacts the durability of concrete structures is the alkali-silica reaction. Engineers are frequently charged with the challenges of conducting a thorough safety assessment of concrete structures that have been impacted by ASR. The alkali-silica reaction has a major influence on the structural capacities of structures. In most cases, the reduction in compressive strength, tensile strength, and modulus of elasticity is expressed as a function of free expansion and crack widths. Predicting the effect of ASR on flexural strength is also relevant. In this paper, a nonlinear three-dimensional (3D) finite-element model was proposed to describe the flexural strength degradation induced byASR.Initial strains, initial stresses, initial cracks, and deterioration of material characteristics were all considered ASR factors in this model. The effects of ASR on structural performance were evaluated by focusing on initial flexural stiffness, force–deformation curve, and load-carrying capacity. Degradation of concrete mechanical properties was correlated with ASR growth using material test data conducted at Tech Lab, UTS, and implemented into the FEM for various expansions. The finite element study revealed a better understanding of the ASR-affected RC beam's failure mechanism and capacity reduction as a function of ASR expansion. Furthermore, in this study, decreasing of the residual mechanical properties due to ASRisreviewed, using as input data for the FEM model. Finally, analysis techniques and a comparison of the analysis and the experiment results are discussed. Verification is also provided through analyses of reinforced concrete beams with behavior governed by either flexural or shear mechanisms.

Keywords: alkali-silica reaction, analysis, assessment, finite element, nonlinear analysis, reinforced concrete

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Authors: M. Rahou, A. J. Andrews, G. Rosengarten

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One of the main challenges in high-temperature solar thermal applications transfer concentrated solar radiation to the load with minimum energy loss and maximum overall efficiency. The use of a solar concentrator in conjunction with bundled optical fibres has potential advantages in terms of transmission energy efficiency, technical feasibility and cost-effectiveness compared to a conventional heat transfer system employing heat exchangers and a heat transfer fluid. In this paper, a theoretical and computer simulation method is described to estimate the net solar radiation transmission from a solar concentrator into and through optical fibres to a thermal application at the end of the fibres over distances of up to 100 m. A key input to the simulation is the angular distribution of radiation intensity at each point across the aperture plane of the optical fibre. This distribution depends on the optical properties of the solar concentrator, in this case, a parabolic mirror with a small secondary mirror with a common focal point and a point-focus Fresnel lens to give a collimated beam that pass into the optical fibre bundle. Since solar radiation comprises a broad band of wavelengths with very limited spatial coherence over the full range of spectrum only ray tracing models absorption within the fibre and reflections at the interface between core and cladding is employed, assuming no interference between rays. The intensity of the radiation across the exit plane of the fibre is found by integrating across all directions and wavelengths. Results of applying the simulation model to a parabolic concentrator and point-focus Fresnel lens with typical optical fibre bundle will be reported, to show how the energy transmission varies with the length of fibre.

Keywords: concentrated radiation, fibre bundle, parabolic dish, fresnel lens, transmission

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Authors: Asim Alsharif, Christophe Pinna, Hassan Ghadbeigi

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The development of next-generation advanced high strength steels (AHSS) used in the automotive industry requires a better understanding of local deformation and damage development at the scale of their microstructures. This work is focused on dual-phase DP1000 steels and involves micro-mechanical tensile testing inside a scanning electron microscope (SEM) combined with digital image correlation (DIC) to quantify the heterogeneity of deformation in both ferrite and martensite and its evolution up to fracture. Natural features of the microstructure are used for the correlation carried out using Davis LaVision software. Strain localization is observed in both phases with tensile strain values up to 130% and 110% recorded in ferrite and martensite respectively just before final fracture. Damage initiation sites have been observed during deformation in martensite but could not be correlated to local strain values. A finite element (FE) model of the microstructure has then been developed using Abaqus to map stress distributions over representative areas of the microstructure by forcing the model to deform as in the experiment using DIC-measured displacement maps as boundary conditions. A MATLAB code has been developed to automatically mesh the microstructure from SEM images and to map displacement vectors from DIC onto the FE mesh. Results show a correlation of damage initiation at the interface between ferrite and martensite with local principal stress values of about 1700MPa in the martensite phase. Damage in ferrite is now being investigated, and results are expected to bring new insight into damage development in DP steels.

Keywords: advanced high strength steels, digital image correlation, finite element modelling, micro-mechanical testing

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Authors: Alilu Getahun Sulito

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Exceptional floods are now prevalent in many places in Ethiopia, resulting in a large number of human deaths and property destruction. Lake Boyo watershed, in particular, had also traditionally been vulnerable to flash floods throughout the Boyo watershed. The goal of this research is to create flood and inundation maps for the Boyo Catchment. The integration of Geographic information system(GIS) technology and the hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) were utilized as methods to attain the objective. The peak discharge was determined using Fuller empirical methodology for intervals of 5, 10, 15, and 25 years, and the results were 103.2 m3/s, 158 m3/s, 222 m3/s, and 252 m3/s, respectively. River geometry, boundary conditions, manning's n value of varying land cover, and peak discharge at various return periods were all entered into HEC-RAS, and then an unsteady flow study was performed. The results of the unsteady flow study demonstrate that the water surface elevation in the longitudinal profile rises as the different periods increase. The flood inundation charts clearly show that regions on the right and left sides of the river with the greatest flood coverage were 15.418 km2 and 5.29 km2, respectively, flooded by 10,20,30, and 50 years. High water depths typically occur along the main channel and progressively spread to the floodplains. The latest study also found that flood-prone areas were disproportionately affected on the river's right bank. As a result, combining GIS with hydraulic modelling to create a flood inundation map is a viable solution. The findings of this study can be used to care again for the right bank of a Boyo River catchment near the Boyo Lake kebeles, according to the conclusion. Furthermore, it is critical to promote an early warning system in the kebeles so that people can be evacuated before a flood calamity happens. Keywords: Flood, Weira River, Boyo, GIS, HEC- GEORAS, HEC- RAS, Inundation Mapping

Keywords: Weira River, Boyo, GIS, HEC- GEORAS, HEC- RAS, Inundation Mapping

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Authors: Martins Y. Otache, John J. Musa, Abayomi I. Kuti, Mustapha Mohammed

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The performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) is contingent on a host of factors, for instance, the network optimisation scheme. In view of this, the study examined the general implications of the ANN training optimisation algorithm on its forecast performance. To this end, the Bayesian regularisation (Br), Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), and the adaptive learning gradient descent: GDM (with momentum) algorithms were employed under different ANN structural configurations: (1) single-hidden layer, and (2) double-hidden layer feedforward back propagation network. Results obtained revealed generally that the gradient descent with momentum (GDM) optimisation algorithm, with its adaptive learning capability, used a relatively shorter time in both training and validation phases as compared to the Levenberg- Marquardt (LM) and Bayesian Regularisation (Br) algorithms though learning may not be consummated; i.e., in all instances considering also the prediction of extreme flow conditions for 1-day and 5-day ahead, respectively especially using the ANN model. In specific statistical terms on the average, model performance efficiency using the coefficient of efficiency (CE) statistic were Br: 98%, 94%; LM: 98 %, 95 %, and GDM: 96 %, 96% respectively for training and validation phases. However, on the basis of relative error distribution statistics (MAE, MAPE, and MSRE), GDM performed better than the others overall. Based on the findings, it is imperative to state that the adoption of ANN for real-time forecasting should employ training algorithms that do not have computational overhead like the case of LM that requires the computation of the Hessian matrix, protracted time, and sensitivity to initial conditions; to this end, Br and other forms of the gradient descent with momentum should be adopted considering overall time expenditure and quality of the forecast as well as mitigation of network overfitting. On the whole, it is recommended that evaluation should consider implications of (i) data quality and quantity and (ii) transfer functions on the overall network forecast performance.

Keywords: streamflow, neural network, optimisation, algorithm

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Authors: Iveta Ludviga, Agita Kalvina

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This paper aims to link together the concepts of job satisfaction, work engagement, trust, job meaningfulness and loyalty to the organisation focusing on specific type of employment–academic jobs. The research investigates the relationships between job satisfaction, work engagement and loyalty as well as the impact of trust and job meaningfulness on the work engagement and loyalty. The survey was conducted in one of the largest Latvian higher education institutions and the sample was drawn from academic staff (n=326). Structured questionnaire with 44 reflective type questions was developed to measure toe constructs. Data was analysed using SPSS and Smart-PLS software. Variance based structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) technique was used to test the model and to predict the most important factors relevant to employee engagement and loyalty. The first order model included two endogenous constructs (loyalty and intention to stay and recommend, and employee engagement), as well as six exogenous constructs (feeling of fair treatment and trust in management; career growth opportunities; compensation, pay and benefits; management; colleagues; teamwork; and finally job meaningfulness). Job satisfaction was developed as second order construct and both: first and second order models were designed for data analysis. It was found that academics are more engaged than satisfied with their work and main reason for that was found to be job meaningfulness, which is significant predictor for work engagement, but not for job satisfaction. Compensation is not significantly related to work engagement, but only to job satisfaction. Trust was not significantly related neither to engagement, nor to satisfaction, however, it appeared to be significant predictor of loyalty and intentions to stay with the University. This paper revealed academic jobs as specific kind of employment where employees can be more engaged than satisfied and highlighted the specific role of job meaningfulness in the University settings.

Keywords: job satisfaction, job meaningfulness, higher education, work engagement

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Authors: Svetlana Cojocaru, Mircea Petic, Inga Titchiev

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Humanity faces more and more often with different social disasters, which in turn can generate new accidents and catastrophes. To mitigate their consequences, it is important to obtain early possible signals about the events which are or can occur and to prepare the corresponding scenarios that could be applied. Our research is focused on solving two problems in this domain: identifying signals related that an accident occurred or may occur and mitigation of some consequences of disasters. To solve the first problem, methods of selecting and processing texts from global network Internet are developed. Information in Romanian is of special interest for us. In order to obtain the mentioned tools, we should follow several steps, divided into preparatory stage and processing stage. Throughout the first stage, we manually collected over 724 news articles and classified them into 10 categories of social disasters. It constitutes more than 150 thousand words. Using this information, a controlled vocabulary of more than 300 keywords was elaborated, that will help in the process of classification and identification of the texts related to the field of social disasters. To solve the second problem, the formalism of Petri net has been used. We deal with the problem of inhabitants’ evacuation in useful time. The analysis methods such as reachability or coverability tree and invariants technique to determine dynamic properties of the modeled systems will be used. To perform a case study of properties of extended evacuation system by adding time, the analysis modules of PIPE such as Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets (GSPN) Analysis, Simulation, State Space Analysis, and Invariant Analysis have been used. These modules helped us to obtain the average number of persons situated in the rooms and the other quantitative properties and characteristics related to its dynamics.

Keywords: lexicon of disasters, modelling, Petri nets, text annotation, social disasters

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Authors: Murtala Gada Abubakar, Aliyu T. Umar

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A substantial part of Nigeria is part of semi-arid areas of the world, underlain by basement complex (hard) rocks which are very poor in both transmission and storage of appreciable quantity of water. Recently, a growing attention is being paid on the need to develop water resources in these areas largely due to concerns about increasing droughts and the need to maintain water security challenges. While there is ample body of knowledge that captures the hydrological behaviours of the sedimentary part, reported research which unambiguously illustrates water distribution in the basement complex of the Sokoto basin remains sparse. Considering the growing need to meet the water requirements of those living in this region necessitated the call for accurate water balance estimations that can inform a sustainable planning and development to address water security challenges for the area. To meet this task, a one-dimensional soil water balance model was developed and utilised to assess the state of water distribution within the Sokoto basin basement complex using measured meteorological variables and information about different landscapes within the complex. The model simulated the soil water storage and rates of input and output of water in response to climate and irrigation where applicable using data from 2001 to 2010 inclusive. The results revealed areas within the Sokoto basin basement complex that are rich and deficient in groundwater resource. The high potential areas identified includes the fadama, the fractured rocks and the cultivated lands, while the low potential areas are the sealed surfaces and non-fractured rocks. This study concludes that the modelling approach is a useful tool for assessing the hydrological behaviour and for better understanding the water resource availability within a basement complex.

Keywords: basement complex, hydrological processes, Sokoto Basin, water security

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Authors: Fatemeh Daneshvartarigh

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New technologies and applications have radically altered construction techniques in recent years. In order to anticipate how the building will act, perform, and appear, these technologies encompass a wide range of visualization, simulation, and analytic tools. These new technologies and applications have a considerable impact on completing construction projects in today's (architecture, engineering and construction)AEC industries. The rate of changes in BIM-related topics is different worldwide, and it depends on many factors, e.g., the national policies of each country. Therefore, there is a need for comprehensive research focused on a specific area with common characteristics. Therefore, one of the necessary measures to increase the use of this new approach is to examine the challenges and obstacles facing it. In this research, based on the Delphi method, at first, the background and related literature are reviewed. Then, using the knowledge obtained from the literature, a primary questionnaire is generated and filled by experts who are selected using snowball sampling. It covered the experts' attitudes towards implementing BIM in renovation projects and their view of the benefits and obstacles in this regard. By analyzing the primary questionnaire, the second group of experts is selected among the participants to be interviewed. The results are analyzed using Theme analysis. Six themes, including Management support, staff resistance, client willingness, Cost of software and implementation, the difficulty of implementation, and other reasons, are obtained. Then a final questionnaire is generated from the themes and filled by the same group of experts. The result is analyzed by the Fuzzy Delphi method, showing the exact ranking of the obtained themes. The final results show that management support, staff resistance, and client willingness are the most critical barrier to BIM usage in renovation projects.

Keywords: building information modeling, BIM, BIM implementation, BIM barriers, BIM in renovation

Procedia PDF Downloads 166

Authors: Phakamani Xaba, Robert Huberts, Bilainu Oboirien

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The present study was aimed at developing & comparing two neural-network-based predictive models to predict shelf-life/product age of South African margarine using free fatty acid (FFA), water droplet size (D3.3), water droplet distribution (e-sigma), moisture content, peroxide value (PV), anisidine valve (AnV) and total oxidation (totox) value as input variables to the model. Brick margarine products which had varying ages ranging from fresh i.e. week 0 to week 47 were sourced. The brick margarine products which had been stored at 10 & 25 °C and were characterized. JMP and MATLAB models to predict shelf-life/ margarine age were developed and their performances were compared. The key performance indicators to evaluate the model performances were correlation coefficient (CC), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) relative to the actual data. The MATLAB-developed model showed a better performance in all three performance indicators. The correlation coefficient of the MATLAB model was 99.86% versus 99.74% for the JMP model, the RMSE was 0.720 compared to 1.005 and the MAPE was 7.4% compared to 8.571%. The MATLAB model was selected to be the most accurate, and then, the number of hidden neurons/ nodes was optimized to develop a single predictive model. The optimized MATLAB with 10 neurons showed a better performance compared to the models with 1 & 5 hidden neurons. The developed models can be used by margarine manufacturers, food research institutions, researchers etc, to predict shelf-life/ margarine product age, optimize addition of antioxidants, extend shelf-life of products and proactively troubleshoot for problems related to changes which have an impact on shelf-life of margarine without conducting expensive trials.

Keywords: margarine shelf-life, predictive modelling, neural networks, oil oxidation

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Authors: Bernardo C. P. Albuquerque, Darym J. F. Campos

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Increasing our ability to solve complex engineering problems is directly related to the processing capacity of computers. By means of such equipments, one is able to fast and accurately run numerical algorithms. Besides the increasing interest in numerical simulations, probabilistic approaches are also of great importance. This way, statistical tools have shown their relevance to the modelling of practical engineering problems. In general, statistical approaches to such problems consider that the random variables involved follow a normal distribution. This assumption tends to provide incorrect results when skew data is present since normal distributions are symmetric about their means. Thus, in order to visualize and quantify this aspect, 9 statistical distributions (symmetric and skew) have been considered to model a hypothetical slope stability problem. The data modeled is the friction angle of a superficial soil in Brasilia, Brazil. Despite the apparent universality, the normal distribution did not qualify as the best fit. In the present effort, data obtained in consolidated-drained triaxial tests and saturated direct shear tests have been modeled and used to analytically derive the probability density function (PDF) of the safety factor of a hypothetical slope based on Mohr-Coulomb rupture criterion. Therefore, based on this analysis, it is possible to explicitly derive the failure probability considering the friction angle as a random variable. Furthermore, it is possible to compare the stability analysis when the friction angle is modelled as a Dagum distribution (distribution that presented the best fit to the histogram) and as a Normal distribution. This comparison leads to relevant differences when analyzed in light of the risk management.

Keywords: statistical slope stability analysis, skew distributions, probability of failure, functions of random variables

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Authors: Radek Richtr, Petr Pauš

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Social media nowadays connects people more tightly and intensively than ever, but simultaneously, some sort of social distance, incomprehension, lost of social integrity appears. People can be strongly connected to the person on the other side of the world but unaware of neighbours in the same district or street. The Stoa is a type of application from the ”serious games” genre- it is research augmented reality experiment masked as a gaming environment. In the Stoa environment, the player can plant and grow virtual (organic) structure, a Pillar, that represent the whole suburb. Everybody has their own idea of what is an acceptable, admirable or harmful visual intervention in the area they live in; the purpose of this research experiment is to find and/or define residents shared subconscious spirit, genius loci of the Pillars vicinity, where residents live in. The appearance and evolution of Stoa’s Pillars reflect the real world as perceived by not only the creator but also by other residents/players, who, with their actions, refine the environment. Squares, parks, patios and streets get their living avatar depictions; investors and urban planners obtain information on the occurrence and level of motivation for reshaping the public space. As the project is in product conceptual design phase, the function is one of its most important factors. Function-based modelling makes design problem modular and structured and thus decompose it into sub-functions or function-cells. Paper discuss the current conceptual model for Stoa project, the using of different organic structure textures and models, user interface design, UX study and project’s developing to the final state.

Keywords: augmented reality, urban computing, interaction design, mixed reality, social engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 228

Authors: Biruk Wolde, Atalay Ayele, Yonatan Garkabo, Trufat Hailmariam, Zemenu Germewu

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A comprehensive three-dimensional (3D) geological modeling and engineering geological characterization of shallow subsurface soils and rocks are essential for a wide range of geotechnical and seismological engineering applications, particularly in urban environments. The spatial distribution and geological variation of the shallow subsurface of Addis Ababa city have not been studied so far in terms of geological and geotechnical modeling. This study aims at the construction of a 3D geological model, as well as provides awareness into the engineering geological characteristics of shallow subsurface soil and rock of Addis Ababa city. The 3D geological model was constructed by using more than 1500 geotechnical boreholes, well-drilling data, and geological maps. A well-known geostatistical kriging 3D interpolation algorithm was applied to visualize the spatial distribution and geological variation of the shallow subsurface. Due to the complex nature of geological formations, vertical and lateral variation of the geological profiles horizons-solid command has been selected via the Groundwater Modelling System (GMS) graphical user interface software. For the engineering geological characterization of typical soils and rocks, both index and engineering laboratory tests have been used. The geotechnical properties of soil and rocks vary from place to place due to the uneven nature of subsurface formations observed in the study areas. The constructed model ascertains the thickness, extent, and 3D distribution of the important geological units of the city. This study is the first comprehensive research work on 3D geological modeling and subsurface characterization of soils and rocks in Addis Ababa city, and the outcomes will be important for further future research on subsurface conditions in the city. Furthermore, these findings provide a reference for developing a geo-database for the city.

Keywords: 3d geological modeling, addis ababa, engineering geology, geostatistics, horizons-solid

Procedia PDF Downloads 98