Search results for: macroeconomics models

Authors: Justin-Herve Noubissi, Jean Claude Kamgang, Eric Ramat, Januarius Asongu, Christophe Cambier

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The goal of our study is to analyse the impact of climatic factors in malaria transmission taking into account migration between Douala and Yaoundé, two cities of Cameroon country. We show how variations of climatic factors such as temperature and relative humidity affect the malaria spread. We propose a meta-population model of the dynamic transmission of malaria that evolves in space and time and that takes into account temperature and relative humidity and the migration between Douala and Yaoundé. We also integrate the variation of environmental factors as events also called mathematical impulsion that can disrupt the model evolution at any time. Our modelling has been done using the Discrete EVents System Specification (DEVS) formalism. Our implementation has been done on Virtual Laboratory Environment (VLE) that uses DEVS formalism and abstract simulators for coupling models by integrating the concept of DEVS.

Keywords: compartmental models, DEVS, discrete events, meta-population model, VLE

Procedia PDF Downloads 555

Authors: Ganga K. V. Prakhya, V. Karthigeyan

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The paper describes the influences of the fluid and structure interaction in concrete structures that support large oil platforms in the North Sea. The dynamic interaction of the fluid both in 2D and 3D are demonstrated through a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis in the event of explosion following a gas leak inside of the concrete column. The structural response characteristics of the column in water under dynamic conditions are quite complex involving axial, radial and circumferential modes. Fluid structure interaction (FSI) modelling showed that there are some frequencies of the column in water which are not found for a column in air. For example, it was demonstrated that one of the axial breathing modes can never be simulated without the use of FSI models. The occurrence of a shift in magnitude and time of pressure from explosion following gas leak along the height of the shaft not only excited the modes of vibration involving breathing (axial), bending and squashing (radial) modes but also magnified the forces in the column. FSI models revealed that dynamic effects resulted in dynamic amplification of loads. The results are summarized from a detailed study that was carried out by the first author for the Offshore Safety Division of Health & Safety Executive United Kingdom.

Keywords: concrete, explosion, fluid structure interaction, offshore structures

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Authors: Asaiel Alohaly

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A theoretical framework for corporate governance is needed to bridge the gap between the corporate governance of private companies and State-owned Enterprises (SOEs). The two dominant models, being shareholder and stakeholder, do not always address the specific requirements and challenges posed by ‘hybrid’ companies; namely, previously national bodies that have been privatised bffu t where the government retains significant control or holds a majority of shareholders. Thus, an exploratory theoretical study is needed to identify how ‘hybrid’ companies should be defined and why the state model should be acknowledged since it is the less conspicuous model in comparison with the shareholder and stakeholder models. This research focuses on ‘the state model of corporate governance to understand the complex ownership, control pattern, goals, and corporate governance of these hybrid companies. The significance of this research lies in the fact that there is a limited available publication on the state model. The outcomes of this research are as follows. It became evident that the state model exists in the ecosystem. However, corporate governance theories have not extensively covered this model. Though, there is a lot being said about it by OECD and the World Bank. In response to this gap between theories and industry practice, this research argues for the state model, which proceeds from an understanding of the institutionally embedded character of hybrid companies where the government is either a majority of the total shares or a controlling shareholder.

Keywords: corporate governance, control, shareholders, state model

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Authors: Retius Chifurira

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Logistic regression model is the most used regression model to predict meteorological drought probabilities. When the dependent variable is extreme, the logistic model fails to adequately capture drought probabilities. In order to adequately predict drought probabilities, we use the generalized linear model (GLM) with the quantile function of the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) as the link function. The method maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters of the generalized extreme value (GEV) regression model. We compare the performance of the logistic and the GEV regression models in predicting drought probabilities for Zimbabwe. The performance of the regression models are assessed using the goodness-of-fit tests, namely; relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and relative mean absolute error (RMAE). Results show that the GEV regression model performs better than the logistic model, thereby providing a good alternative candidate for predicting drought probabilities. This paper provides the first application of GLM derived from extreme value theory to predict drought probabilities for a drought-prone country such as Zimbabwe.

Keywords: generalized extreme value distribution, general linear model, mean annual rainfall, meteorological drought probabilities

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Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

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This study is an attempt to obtain reliable data on the natural history of breast cancer growth. We analyze the opportunities for using classical mathematical models (exponential and logistic tumor growth models, Gompertz and von Bertalanffy tumor growth models) to try to describe growth of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases of human breast cancer. The research aim is to improve predicting accuracy of breast cancer progression using an original mathematical model referred to CoMPaS and corresponding software. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoMPaS which reflects relations between the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; 3) analyzing the CoMPaS scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. The foundation of the CoMPaS is the exponential tumor growth model, which is described by determinate nonlinear and linear equations. The CoMPaS corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for the primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for the secondary distant metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for the secondary distant metastases. The CoMPaS is validated on clinical data of 10-years and 15-years survival depending on the tumor stage and diameter of the primary tumor. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer growth models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. The CoMPaS model and predictive software: a) fit to clinical trials data; b) detect different growth periods of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; c) make forecast of the period of the secondary distant metastases appearance; d) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; e) can improve forecasts on survival of breast cancer and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoMPaS: the number of doublings for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of the secondary distant metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of the secondary distant metastases. The CoMPaS enables, for the first time, to predict ‘whole natural history’ of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on the primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoMPaS describes correctly the primary tumor growth of IA, IIA, IIB, IIIB (T1-4N0M0) stages without metastases in lymph nodes (N0); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and inception of the secondary distant metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical model, metastases in lymph nodes, primary tumor, survival

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Authors: Faramarz Khoshnoudian, Saeed Vosoughiyan

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The main goal of this article is to clarify the soil-structure interaction (SSI) effects on the seismic performance of steel moment resisting frame buildings which are rested on soft soil and equipped with viscous fluid dampers (VFDs). For this purpose, detailed structural models of a ten-story SMRF with VFDs excluding and including the SSI are constructed first. In order to simulate the dynamic response of the foundation, in this paper, the simple cone model is applied. Then, the nonlinear time-history analysis of the models is conducted using three kinds of earthquake excitations with different intensities. The analysis results have demonstrated that the SSI effects on the seismic performance of a structure equipped with VFDs and supported by rigid foundation on soft soil need to be considered. Also VFDs designed based on rigid foundation hypothesis fail to achieve the expected seismic objective while SSI goes into effect.

Keywords: nonlinear time-history analysis, soil-structure interaction, steel moment resisting frame building, viscous fluid dampers

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Authors: Chih-Hua Chang

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This study uses a three-dimensional (3D) fully nonlinear model to simulate the wave generation problem caused by the movement of the seabed. The numerical model is first simplified into two dimensions and then compared with the existing two-dimensional (2D) experimental data and the 2D numerical results of other shallow-water wave models. Results show that this model is different from the earlier shallow-water wave models, with the phase being closer to the experimental results of wave propagation. The results of this study are also compared with those of the 3D experimental results of other researchers. Satisfactory results can be obtained in both the waveform and the flow field. This study assesses the application of the model to simulate the wave caused by the circular (radius r0) terrain rising or falling (moving distance bm). The influence of wave-making parameters r0 and bm are discussed. This study determines that small-range (e.g., r0 = 2, normalized by the static water depth), rising, or sinking terrain will produce significant wave groups in the far field. For large-scale moving terrain (e.g., r0 = 10), uplift and deformation will potentially generate the leading solitary-like waves in the far field.

Keywords: seismic wave, wave generation, far-field waves, seabed deformation

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Authors: Marius Gavrilescu, Sabina-Adriana Floria, Florin Leon, Silvia Curteanu, Costel Anton

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Natural sciences provide a wide range of experimental data whose related problems require study and modeling beyond the capabilities of conventional methodologies. Such problems have solution spaces whose complexity and high dimensionality require correspondingly complex regression methods for proper characterization. In this context, we propose an optimization method which consists in a hybrid dual optimizer setup: a global optimizer based on a modified variant of the popular Imperialist Competitive Algorithm (ICA), and a local optimizer based on a gradient descent approach. The ICA is modified such that intermediate solution populations are more quickly and efficiently pruned of low-fitness individuals by appropriately altering the assimilation, revolution and competition phases, which, combined with an initialization strategy based on low-discrepancy sampling, allows for a more effective exploration of the corresponding solution space. Subsequently, gradient-based optimization is used locally to seek the optimal solution in the neighborhoods of the solutions found through the modified ICA. We use this combined approach to find the optimal configuration and weights of a fully-connected neural network, resulting in regression models used to characterize the process of obtained bricks using silicon-based materials. Installations in the raw ceramics industry, i.e., bricks, are characterized by significant energy consumption and large quantities of emissions. Thus, the purpose of our approach is to determine by simulation the working conditions, including the manufacturing mix recipe with the addition of different materials, to minimize the emissions represented by CO and CH4. Our approach determines regression models which perform significantly better than those found using the traditional ICA for the aforementioned problem, resulting in better convergence and a substantially lower error.

Keywords: optimization, biologically inspired algorithm, regression models, bricks, emissions

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Authors: Nadjet Taoualit, Zoubida Chemat, Djamel-Eddine Hadj-Boussaad

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This study aims the removal of copper Cu (II) contained in wastewater by adsorption on a perfect synthesized mud. It is the materials Hydroxides Double Lamellar, HDL, prepared and synthesized by co-precipitation method at constant pH, which requires a simple titration assembly, with an inexpensive and available material in the laboratory, and also allows us better control of the composition of the reaction medium, and gives well crystallized products. A characterization of the adsorbent proved essential. Thus a range of physic-chemical analysis was performed including: FTIR spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction… The adsorption of copper ions was investigated in dispersed medium (batch). A systematic study of various parameters (amount of support, contact time, initial copper concentration, temperature, pH…) was performed. Adsorption kinetic data were tested using pseudo-first order, pseudo-second order, Bangham's equation and intra-particle diffusion models. The equilibrium data were analyzed using Langmuir, Freundlich, Tempkin and other isotherm models at different doses of HDL. The thermodynamics parameters were evaluated at different temperatures. The results have established good potentiality for the HDL to be used as a sorbent for the removal of Copper from wastewater.

Keywords: adsoption, copper, HDL, isotherm

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Authors: Saba Ebrahimi, Saeed Ahmadian, Hedie Ashrafi

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Selecting appropriate patients for surgery is one of the main issues in thoracic surgery (TS). Both short-term and long-term risks and benefits of surgery must be considered in the patient selection criteria. There are some limitations in the existing datasets of TS patients because of missing values of attributes and imbalanced distribution of survival classes. In this study, a novel ensemble architecture of deep learning networks is proposed based on stacking different linear and non-linear layers to deal with imbalance datasets. The categorical and numerical features are split using different layers with ability to shrink the unnecessary features. Then, after extracting the insight from the raw features, a novel biased-kernel layer is applied to reinforce the gradient of the minority class and cause the network to be trained better comparing the current methods. Finally, the performance and advantages of our proposed model over the existing models are examined for predicting patient survival after thoracic surgery using a real-life clinical data for lung cancer patients.

Keywords: deep learning, ensemble models, imbalanced classification, lung cancer, TS patient selection

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Authors: S. De Curtis, L. Delle Rose, S. Moretti, K. Yagyu

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Supersymmetry and compositeness are the two prevalent paradigms providing both a solution to the hierarchy problem and motivation for a light Higgs boson state. An open door towards the solution is found in the context of 2-Higgs Doublet Models (2HDMs), which are necessary to supersymmetry and natural within compositeness in order to enable Electro-Weak Symmetry Breaking. In scenarios of compositeness, the two isospin doublets arise as pseudo Nambu-Goldstone bosons from the breaking of SO(6). By calculating the Higgs potential at one-loop level through the Coleman-Weinberg mechanism from the explicit breaking of the global symmetry induced by the partial compositeness of fermions and gauge bosons, we derive the phenomenological properties of the Higgs states and highlight the main signatures of this Composite 2-Higgs Doublet Model at the Large Hadron Collider. These include modifications to the SM-like Higgs couplings as well as production and decay channels of heavier Higgs bosons. We contrast the properties of this composite scenario to the well-known ones established in supersymmetry, with the MSSM being the most notorious example. We show how 2HDM spectra of masses and couplings accessible at the Large Hadron Collider may allow one to distinguish between the two paradigms.

Keywords: beyond the standard model, composite Higgs, supersymmetry, Two-Higgs Doublet Model

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Authors: Marina Sofia, Alexios Giannakopoulos, Antonia Touloudi, Dimitris C Chatzopoulos, Zoi Athanasakopoulou, Vassiliki Spyrou, Charalambos Billinis

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Fertility of dairy cattle can be affected by heat stress when the ambient temperature increases above 30°C and the relative humidity ranges from 35% to 50%. The present study was conducted on dairy cattle farms during summer months in Greece and aimed to identify the serological profile against pathogens that could affect fertility and to associate the positive serological results at herd level with temperature factors. A total of 323 serum samples were collected from clinically healthy dairy cows of 8 herds, located in Central and Northern Greece. ELISA tests were performed to detect antibodies against selected pathogens that affect fertility, namely Chlamydophila abortus, Coxiella burnetii, Neospora caninum, Toxoplasma gondii and Infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitis Virus (IBRV). Eleven climatic variables were derived from the WorldClim version 1.4. and ArcGIS V.10.1 software was used for analysis of the spatial information. Five different MaxEnt models were applied to associate the temperature variables with the locations of seropositive Chl. abortus, C. burnetii, N. caninum, T. gondii and IBRV herds (one for each pathogen). The logistic outputs were used for the interpretation of the results. ROC analyses were performed to evaluate the goodness of fit of the models’ predictions. Jackknife tests were used to identify the variables with a substantial contribution to each model. The seropositivity rates of pathogens varied among the 8 herds (0.85-4.76% for Chl. abortus, 4.76-62.71% for N. caninum, 3.8-43.47% for C. burnetii, 4.76-39.28% for T. gondii and 47.83-78.57% for IBRV). The variables of annual temperature range, mean diurnal range and maximum temperature of the warmest month gave a contribution to all five models. The regularized training gains, the training AUCs and the unregularized training gains were estimated. The mean diurnal range gave the highest gain when used in isolation and decreased the gain the most when it was omitted in the two models for seropositive Chl.abortus and IBRV herds. The annual temperature range increased the gain when used alone and decreased the gain the most when it was omitted in the models for seropositive C. burnetii, N. caninum and T. gondii herds. In conclusion, antibodies against Chl. abortus, C. burnetii, N. caninum, T. gondii and IBRV were detected in most herds suggesting circulation of pathogens that could cause infertility. The results of the spatial analyses demonstrated that the annual temperature range, mean diurnal range and maximum temperature of the warmest month could affect positively the possible pathogens’ presence. Acknowledgment: This research has been co‐financed by the European Regional Development Fund of the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship and Innovation, under the call RESEARCH–CREATE–INNOVATE (project code: T1EDK-01078).

Keywords: dairy cows, seropositivity, spatial analysis, temperature factors

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Authors: Nozar Kishi, Babak Kamrani, Filmon Habte

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Natural hazards such as earthquakes and tropical storms, are very frequent and highly destructive in Japan. Japan experiences, every year on average, more than 10 tropical cyclones that come within damaging reach, and earthquakes of moment magnitude 6 or greater. We have developed stochastic catastrophe models to address the risk associated with the entire suite of damaging events in Japan, for use by insurance, reinsurance, NGOs and governmental institutions. KCC’s (Karen Clark and Company) catastrophe models are procedures constituted of four modular segments: 1) stochastic events sets that would represent the statistics of the past events, hazard attenuation functions that could model the local intensity, vulnerability functions that would address the repair need for local buildings exposed to the hazard, and financial module addressing policy conditions that could estimates the losses incurring as result of. The events module is comprised of events (faults or tracks) with different intensities with corresponding probabilities. They are based on the same statistics as observed through the historical catalog. The hazard module delivers the hazard intensity (ground motion or wind speed) at location of each building. The vulnerability module provides library of damage functions that would relate the hazard intensity to repair need as percentage of the replacement value. The financial module reports the expected loss, given the payoff policies and regulations. We have divided Japan into regions with similar typhoon climatology, and earthquake micro-zones, within each the characteristics of events are similar enough for stochastic modeling. For each region, then, a set of stochastic events is developed that results in events with intensities corresponding to annual occurrence probabilities that are of interest to financial communities; such as 0.01, 0.004, etc. The intensities, corresponding to these probabilities (called CE, Characteristics Events) are selected through a superstratified sampling approach that is based on the primary uncertainty. Region specific hazard intensity attenuation functions followed by vulnerability models leads to estimation of repair costs. Extensive economic exposure model addresses all local construction and occupancy types, such as post-linter Shinand Okabe wood, as well as concrete confined in steel, SRC (Steel-Reinforced Concrete), high-rise.

Keywords: typhoon, earthquake, Japan, catastrophe modelling, stochastic modeling, stratified sampling, loss model, ERM

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Authors: Qian Huiya, Feng Lin

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The progressive collapse of reinforced concrete (RC) structures will cause huge casualties and property losses. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the ability of structures against progressive collapse accurately. This paper numerically investigated the effect of storey number on the mechanism and quantitative contribution of the Vierendeel action (VA) in progressive collapse under corner column removal scenario. First, finite element (FE) models of multi-storey RC frame structures were developed using LS-DYNA. Then, the accuracy of the modeling technique was validated by test results conducted by the authors. Last, the validated FE models were applied to investigated the structural behavior of the RC frames with different storey numbers from one to six storeys. Results found the multi-storey substructure formed additional plastic hinges at the beam ends near the corner column in the second to top storeys, and at the lower end of the corner column in the first storey. The average ultimate resistance of each storey of the multi-storey substructures were increased by 14.0% to 18.5% compared with that of the single-storey substructure experiencing no VA. The contribution of VA to the ultimate resistance was decreased with the increase of the storey number.

Keywords: progressive collapse, reinforced concrete structure, storey number, Vierendeel action

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Authors: Kostas Kouvaris, Anastasia Eleftheriou, Georgios A. Sarantitis, Apostolos Chondronasios

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To achieve the objective of almost zero carbon energy solutions by 2050, the EU needs to accelerate the development of integrated, highly efficient and environmentally friendly solutions. In this direction, district heating and cooling (DHC) emerges as a viable and more efficient alternative to conventional, decentralized heating and cooling systems, enabling a combination of more efficient renewable and competitive energy supplies. In this paper, we develop a forecasting tool for near real-time local weather and thermal energy demand predictions for an entire DHC network. In this fashion, we are able to extend the functionality and to improve the energy efficiency of the DHC network by predicting and adjusting the heat load that is distributed from the heat generation plant to the connected buildings by the heat pipe network. Two case-studies are considered; one for Vransko, Slovenia and one for Montpellier, France. The data consists of i) local weather data, such as humidity, temperature, and precipitation, ii) weather forecast data, such as the outdoor temperature and iii) DHC operational parameters, such as the mass flow rate, supply and return temperature. The external temperature is found to be the most important energy-related variable for space conditioning, and thus it is used as an external parameter for the energy demand models. For the development of the forecasting tool, we use state-of-the-art deep neural networks and more specifically, recurrent networks with long-short-term memory cells, which are able to capture complex non-linear relations among temporal variables. Firstly, we develop models to forecast outdoor temperatures for the next 24 hours using local weather data for each case-study. Subsequently, we develop models to forecast thermal demand for the same period, taking under consideration past energy demand values as well as the predicted temperature values from the weather forecasting models. The contributions to the scientific and industrial community are three-fold, and the empirical results are highly encouraging. First, we are able to predict future thermal demand levels for the two locations under consideration with minimal errors. Second, we examine the impact of the outdoor temperature on the predictive ability of the models and how the accuracy of the energy demand forecasts decreases with the forecast horizon. Third, we extend the relevant literature with a new dataset of thermal demand and examine the performance and applicability of machine learning techniques to solve real-world problems. Overall, the solution proposed in this paper is in accordance with EU targets, providing an automated smart energy management system, decreasing human errors and reducing excessive energy production.

Keywords: machine learning, LSTMs, district heating and cooling system, thermal demand

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Authors: Eun Mi Ryu, Ah Young An, Ji Yeon Kang, Yeong Soo Shin, Hee Sun Kim

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As the number of fire incidents has been increased, fire incidents significantly damage economy and human lives. Especially when high strength reinforced concrete is exposed to high temperature due to a fire, deterioration occurs such as loss in strength and elastic modulus, cracking, and spalling of the concrete. Therefore, it is important to understand risk of structural safety in building structures by studying structural behaviors and rehabilitation of fire damaged high strength concrete structures. This paper aims at investigating rehabilitation effect on fire damaged high strength concrete beams using experimental and analytical methods. In the experiments, flexural specimens with high strength concrete are exposed to high temperatures according to ISO 834 standard time temperature curve. After heated, the fire damaged reinforced concrete (RC) beams having different cover thicknesses and fire exposure time periods are rehabilitated by removing damaged part of cover thickness and filling polymeric mortar into the removed part. From four-point loading test, results show that maximum loads of the rehabilitated RC beams are 1.8~20.9% higher than those of the non-fire damaged RC beam. On the other hand, ductility ratios of the rehabilitated RC beams are decreased than that of the non-fire damaged RC beam. In addition, structural analyses are performed using ABAQUS 6.10-3 with same conditions as experiments to provide accurate predictions on structural and mechanical behaviors of rehabilitated RC beams. For the rehabilitated RC beam models, integrated temperature–structural analyses are performed in advance to obtain geometries of the fire damaged RC beams. After spalled and damaged parts are removed, rehabilitated part is added to the damaged model with material properties of polymeric mortar. Three dimensional continuum brick elements are used for both temperature and structural analyses. The same loading and boundary conditions as experiments are implemented to the rehabilitated beam models and nonlinear geometrical analyses are performed. Structural analytical results show good rehabilitation effects, when the result predicted from the rehabilitated models are compared to structural behaviors of the non-damaged RC beams. In this study, fire damaged high strength concrete beams are rehabilitated using polymeric mortar. From four point loading tests, it is found that such rehabilitation is able to make the structural performance of fire damaged beams similar to non-damaged RC beams. The predictions from the finite element models show good agreements with the experimental results and the modeling approaches can be used to investigate applicability of various rehabilitation methods for further study.

Keywords: fire, high strength concrete, rehabilitation, reinforced concrete beam

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Authors: Byl Farney Cunha Junior

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In this work the dynamic three-dimensional analysis of a 47-story building located in Goiania city when subjected to wind loads generated using both the Wind Brazilian code, NBR6123 (ABNT, 1988) and the Synthetic-Wind method is realized. To model the frames three different methodologies are used: the shear building model and both bi and three-dimensional finite element models. To start the analysis, a plane frame is initially studied to validate the shear building model and, in order to compare the results of natural frequencies and displacements at the top of the structure the same plane frame was modeled using the finite element method through the SAP2000 V10 software. The same steps were applied to an idealized 20-story spacial frame that helps in the presentation of the stiffness correction process applied to columns. Based on these models the two methods used to generate the Wind loads are presented: a discrete model proposed in the Wind Brazilian code, NBR6123 (ABNT, 1988) and the Synthetic-Wind method. The method uses the Davenport spectrum which is divided into a variety of frequencies to generate the temporal series of loads. Finally, the 47- story building was analyzed using both the three-dimensional finite element method through the SAP2000 V10 software and the shear building model. The models were loaded with Wind load generated by the Wind code NBR6123 (ABNT, 1988) and by the Synthetic-Wind method considering different wind directions. The displacements and internal forces in columns and beams were compared and a comparative study considering a situation of a full elevated reservoir is realized. As can be observed the displacements obtained by the SAP2000 V10 model are greater when loaded with NBR6123 (ABNT, 1988) wind load related to the permanent phase of the structure’s response.

Keywords: finite element method, synthetic wind, tall buildings, shear building

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Authors: Neziha Jaouedi, Noureddine Boujnah, Mohamed Salim Bouhlel

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In the framework of human machine interaction systems enhancement, we focus throw this paper on human behavior analysis and action recognition. Human behavior is characterized by actions and reactions duality (movements, psychological modification, verbal and emotional expression). It’s worth noting that many information is hidden behind gesture, sudden motion points trajectories and speeds, many research works reconstructed an information retrieval issues. In our work we will focus on motion extraction, tracking and action recognition using wavelet network approaches. Our contribution uses an analysis of human subtraction by Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) and body movement through trajectory models of motion constructed from kalman filter. These models allow to remove the noise using the extraction of the main motion features and constitute a stable base to identify the evolutions of human activity. Each modality is used to recognize a human action using wavelets of derived beta distributions approach. The proposed approach has been validated successfully on a subset of KTH and UCF sports database.

Keywords: feautures extraction, human action classifier, wavelet neural network, beta wavelet

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Authors: X. Wang, T. J. Craft, H. Iacovides

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When handling the near-wall regions of turbulent flows, it is necessary to account for the viscous effects which are important over the thin near-wall layers. Low-Reynolds- number turbulence models do this by including explicit viscous and also damping terms which become active in the near-wall regions, and using very fine near-wall grids to properly resolve the steep gradients present. In order to overcome the cost associated with the low-Re turbulence models, a more advanced wall function approach has been implemented within OpenFoam and tested together with a standard log-law based wall function in the prediction of flows which involve 2-D shock wave/turbulent boundary layer interactions (SWTBLIs). On the whole, from the calculation of the impinging shock interaction, the three turbulence modelling strategies, the Lauder-Sharma k-ε model with Yap correction (LS), the high-Re k-ε model with standard wall function (SWF) and analytical wall function (AWF), display good predictions of wall-pressure. However, the SWF approach tends to underestimate the tendency of the flow to separate as a result of the SWTBLI. The analytical wall function, on the other hand, is able to reproduce the shock-induced flow separation and returns predictions similar to those of the low-Re model, using a much coarser mesh.

Keywords: SWTBLIs, skin-friction, turbulence modeling, wall function

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Authors: Daniel Tscharnuter, Eliza Truszkiewicz, Gerald Pinter

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High-quality surfaces of plastic parts can be achieved in a very cost-effective manner using in-mold processes, where e.g. scratch resistant or high gloss polymer films are pre-formed and subsequently receive their support structure by injection molding. The pre-forming may be done by high-pressure forming. In this process, a polymer sheet is heated and subsequently formed into the mold by pressurized air. Due to the heat transfer to the cooled mold the polymer temperature drops below its glass transition temperature. This ensures that the deformed microstructure is retained after depressurizing, giving the sheet its final formed shape. The development of a forming process relies heavily on the experience of engineers and trial-and-error procedures. Repeated mold design and testing cycles are however both time- and cost-intensive. It is, therefore, desirable to study the process using reliable computer simulations. Through simulations, the construction of the mold and the effect of various process parameters, e.g. temperature levels, non-uniform heating or timing and magnitude of pressure, on the deformation of the polymer sheet can be analyzed. Detailed knowledge of the deformation is particularly important in the forming of polymer films with integrated electro-optical functions. Care must be taken in the placement of devices, sensors and electrical and optical paths, which are far more sensitive to deformation than the polymers. Reliable numerical prediction of the deformation of the polymer sheets requires sophisticated material models. Polymer films are often either transversely isotropic or orthotropic due to molecular orientations induced during manufacturing. The anisotropic behavior affects the resulting strain field in the deformed film. For example, parts of the same shape but different strain fields may be created by varying the orientation of the film with respect to the mold. The numerical simulation of the high-pressure forming of such films thus requires material models that can capture the nonlinear anisotropic mechanical behavior. There are numerous commercial polymer grades for the engineers to choose from when developing a new part. The effort required for comprehensive material characterization may be prohibitive, especially when several materials are candidates for a specific application. We, therefore, propose a class of models for compressible hyperelasticity, which may be determined from basic experimental data and which can capture key features of the mechanical response. Invariant-based hyperelastic models with a reduced number of invariants are formulated in a semi-numerical way, such that the models are determined from a single uniaxial tensile tests for isotropic materials, or two tensile tests in the principal directions for transversely isotropic or orthotropic materials. The simulation of the high pressure forming of an orthotropic polymer film is finally done using an orthotropic formulation of the hyperelastic model.

Keywords: hyperelastic, anisotropic, polymer film, thermoforming

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Authors: Fatma Al-Maadheed

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Following an ethnographic approach this study explored bilingual programmes offered by two types of primary schools in Qatar: international and Independent schools. Qatar with its unique linguistic and socio-economic situation launched a new initiative for educatiobnal development in 2001 but with hardly any research linked to theses changes. The study reveals that the Qatari bilingual schools context was one of heteroglossia, with three codes in operation: Modern Standard Arabic, Colloquial Arabic dialects and English. The two schools adopted different models of bilingualism. The international school adopted a strict separation policy between the two languages following a monoglossic belief. The independent school was found to apply a flexible language policy. The study also highlighted the daily challnges produced from the diglossia situation in Qatar, the difference between students and teacher dialect as well as acquiring literacy in the formal language. In addition to an abscence of a clear language policy in Schools, the study brought attention to the instructional methods utilised in language teaching which are mostly associated with successful bilingual education.

Keywords: diglossia, instructional methods, language policy, qatari primary schools

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Authors: Y. Fekir, K. Mederbal, M. A. Hamadouche, D. Anteur

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The soil erosion by water has become one of the biggest problems of the environment in the world, threatening the majority of countries. There are several models to evaluate erosion. These models are still a simplified representation of reality. They permit the analysis of complex systems, measurements are complementary to allow an extrapolation in time and space and may combine different factors. The empirical model of soil loss proposed by Wischmeier and Smith (Universal Soil Loss Equation), is widely used in many countries. He considers that erosion is a multiplicative function of five factors: rainfall erosivity (the R factor) the soil erodibility factor (K), topography (LS), the erosion control practices (P) and vegetation cover and agricultural practices (C). In this work, we tried to develop a tool based on Web GIS functionality to evaluate soil losses caused by erosion taking into account five factors. This tool allows the user to integrate all the data needed for the evaluation (DEM, Land use, rainfall ...) in the form of digital layers to calculate the five factors taken into account in the USLE equation (R, K, C, P, LS). Accordingly, and after treatment of the integrated data set, a map of the soil losses will be achieved as a result. We tested the proposed tool on a watershed basin located in the weste of Algeria where a dataset was collected and prepared.

Keywords: USLE, erosion, web gis, Algeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 332

Authors: Murat Colak, Berkay Cakir Saridogan

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Since the dawn of modern corporations, almost every single employee has been working in the same loop, which contains three basic steps: going to work, providing the needs for the work, and getting back home. Only a small amount of people were able to break that standard and live outside the box. As the 2019 pandemic hit the Earth and most companies shut down their physical offices, that loop had to change for everyone. This means that the old management styles had to be significantly re-arranged to the "work from home" type of business methods. The methods include online conferences and meetings, time and task tracking using algorithms, globalization of the work, and, most importantly, remote working. After the global epidemic started, even the tech giants were concerned. Now, it can be seen those technology companies have an incredible step-up in their shares compared to the other companies because they know how to manage such situations even better than every other industry. This study aims to take the old traditional management styles in big companies and compare them with the post-covid methods (2019-2022). As a result of this comparison made using the annual reports and shared statistics, this study aims to explain why the winners of this crisis are the technology companies.

Keywords: Covid-19, technology companies, business models, remote work

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Seyed-Ahmad Shahidi, Salemeh Kazemzadeh, Mehdi Sharifi Soltani, Azade Ghorbani-HasanSaraei

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The kinetics of colour changes of American Pokeweed extract, due to concentration by various heating methods was studied. Three different heating/evaporation processes were employed for production of American Pokeweed extract concentrate. The American Pokeweed extract was concentrated to a final 40 °Brix from an initial °Brix of 4 by microwave heating, rotary vacuum evaporator and evaporating at atmospheric pressure. The final American Pokeweed extract concentration of 40 °Brix was achieved in 188, 216 and 320 min by using microwave, rotary vacuum and atmospheric heating processes, respectively. The colour change during concentration processes was investigated. Total colour differences, Hunter L, a and b parameters were used to estimate the extent of colour loss. All Hunter colour parameters decreased with time. The zero-order, first-order and a combined kinetics model were applied to the changes in colour parameters. All models were found to describe the L, a and b-data adequately. Results indicated that variation in TCD followed both first-order and combined kinetics models. This model implied that the colour formation and pigment destruction occurred during concentration processes of American Pokeweed extract.

Keywords: American pokeweed, colour, concentration, kinetics

Procedia PDF Downloads 499

Authors: Emanuele Peggi

Abstract:

The regulation of competitive takeover bids is one of the most problematic issues of any legislation on takeovers since it concerns a particular type of market, that of corporate control, whose peculiar characteristic is that companies represent "assets" unique of their kind, for each of which there will be a relevant market characterized by the presence of different subjects interested in acquiring control. Firstly, this work aims to analyze, from a comparative point of view, the regulation of takeover bids in competitive scenarios, characterized by the presence of multiple takeover bids for the same target company, and contribute to the debate on the impact that various solutions adopted in some legal systems examined (Italy, UK, and USA) have had on the efficiency of the market for corporate control. Secondly, the different auction models identified by the economic literature and their possible applications to corporate acquisitions in competitive scenarios will be examined, as well as the consequences that the application of each of them causes on the efficiency of the market for corporate control and the interests of the target shareholders. The scope is to study the possibility of attributing to the management of the target company the power to design the auction in order to better protect the interests of shareholders through the adoption of ad hoc models according to the specific context. and in particular on the ground of their assessment of the buyer's risk profile.

Keywords: takeovers, auction theory, shareholders, target company

Procedia PDF Downloads 176

Authors: Tomasz Komornicki

Abstract:

The primary aim of the presentation is to try to model border traffic and, at the same time to explain on which economic variables the intensity of border traffic depended in the long term. For this purpose, long series of traffic data on the Polish borders were used. Models were estimated for three variants of explanatory variables: a) for total arrivals and departures (total movement of Poles and foreigners), b) for arrivals and departures of Poles, and c) for arrivals and departures of foreigners. Each of the defined explanatory variables in the models appeared as the logarithm of the natural number of persons. Data from 1994-2017 were used for modeling (for internal Schengen borders for the years 1994-2007). Information on the number of people arriving in and leaving Poland was collected for a total of 303 border crossings. On the basis of the analyses carried out, it was found that one of the main factors determining border traffic is generally differences in the level of economic development (GDP) and the condition of the economy (level of unemployment) and the degree of border permeability. Also statistically significant for border traffic are differences in the prices of goods (fuels, tobacco, and alcohol products) and services (mainly basic ones, e.g., hairdressing services). Such a relationship exists mainly on the eastern border (border traffic determined largely by differences in the prices of goods) and on the border with Germany (in the first analysed period, border traffic was determined mainly by the prices of goods, later - after Poland's accession to the EU and the Schengen area - also by the prices of services). The models also confirmed differences in the set of factors shaping the volume and structure of border traffic on the Polish borders resulting from general geopolitical conditions, with the year 2007 being an important caesura, after which the classical population mobility factors became visible. The results obtained were additionally related to changes in traffic that occurred as a result of the CPOVID-19 pandemic and as a result of the Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Keywords: border, modal structure, transport, Ukraine

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: M. C. A. Leite, B. Chen-Charpentier, F. Agusto

Abstract:

A long-term goal of sustainable forest management is a relatively stable source of wood and a stable forest age-class structure has become the goal of many forest management practices. In the absence of disturbances, this forest management goal could easily be achieved. However, in the face of recurring insect outbreaks and other disruptive processes forest planning becomes more difficult, requiring knowledge of the effects on the forest of a wide variety of environmental factors (e.g., habitat heterogeneity, fire size and frequency, harvesting, insect outbreaks, and age distributions). The association between distinct forest disturbances and the potential effect on forest dynamics is a complex matter, particularly when evaluated over time and at large scale, and is not well understood. However, gaining knowledge in this area is crucial for a sustainable forest management. Mathematical modeling is a tool that can be used to broader the understanding in this area. In this talk we will introduce mathematical models formulation incorporating the effect of insect outbreaks either as a single disturbance in the forest population dynamics or coupled with other disturbances: either wildfire or harvesting. The results and ecological insights will be discussed.

Keywords: age-structured forest population, disturbances interaction, harvesting insects outbreak dynamics, mathematical modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 527

Authors: Zhong Ma, Zhuping Wang, Congxin Liu, Xiangzeng Liu

Abstract:

Satellite imagery classification is a challenging problem with many practical applications. In this paper, we designed a deep convolution neural network (DCNN) to classify the satellite imagery. The contributions of this paper are twofold — First, to cope with the large-scale variance in the satellite image, we introduced the inception module, which has multiple filters with different size at the same level, as the building block to build our DCNN model. Second, we proposed a genetic algorithm based method to efficiently search the best hyper-parameters of the DCNN in a large search space. The proposed method is evaluated on the benchmark database. The results of the proposed hyper-parameters search method show it will guide the search towards better regions of the parameter space. Based on the found hyper-parameters, we built our DCNN models, and evaluated its performance on satellite imagery classification, the results show the classification accuracy of proposed models outperform the state of the art method.

Keywords: satellite imagery classification, deep convolution network, genetic algorithm, hyper-parameter optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 302

Authors: Fantazi Walid, Ezzedine Tahar, Bargaoui Zoubeida

Abstract:

This research presents the main ideas to implement an intelligent system composed by communicating wireless sensors measuring environmental data linked to drought indicators (such as air temperature, soil moisture , etc...). On the other hand, the setting up of a spatio temporal database communicating with a Web mapping application for a monitoring in real time in activity 24:00 /day, 7 days/week is proposed to allow the screening of the drought parameters time evolution and their extraction. Thus this system helps detecting surfaces touched by the phenomenon of drought. Spatio-temporal conceptual models seek to answer the users who need to manage soil water content for irrigating or fertilizing or other activities pursuing crop yield augmentation. Effectively, spatio-temporal conceptual models enable users to obtain a diagram of readable and easy data to apprehend. Based on socio-economic information, it helps identifying people impacted by the phenomena with the corresponding severity especially that this information is accessible by farmers and stakeholders themselves. The study will be applied in Siliana watershed Northern Tunisia.

Keywords: WSN, database spatio-temporal, GIS, web mapping, indicator of drought

Procedia PDF Downloads 494

Authors: John Morales, Armando Guzman

Abstract:

Protection relay algorithms play a crucial role in Electric Power System stability, where, it is clear that lightning strokes produce the mayor percentage of faults and outages of Transmission Lines (TLs) and Distribution Feeders (DFs). In this context, it is imperative to develop novel protection relay algorithms. However, in order to get this aim, Electric Power Systems (EPS) network have to be simulated as real as possible, especially the lightning phenomena, and EPS elements that affect their behavior like direct and indirect lightning, insulator string, overhead line, soil ionization and other. However, researchers have proposed new protection relay algorithms considering common faults, which are not produced by lightning strokes, omitting these imperative phenomena for the transmission line protection relays behavior. Based on the above said, this paper presents the possibilities of using the Alternative Transient Program ATP-Draw for the modeling and simulation of some models to make lightning stroke studies, especially for protection relays, which are developed through Transient Analysis of Control Systems (TACS) and MODELS language corresponding to the ATP-Draw.

Keywords: back-flashover, faults, flashover, lightning stroke, modeling of lightning, outages, protection relays

Procedia PDF Downloads 316