Search results for: decision model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 19587

Search results for: decision model

18327 An Inquiry on 2-Mass and Wheeled Mobile Robot Dynamics

Authors: Boguslaw Schreyer

Abstract:

In this paper, a general dynamical model is derived using the Lagrange formalism. The two masses: sprang and unsprang are included in a six-degree of freedom model for a sprung mass. The unsprung mass is included and shown only in a simplified model, although its equations have also been derived by an author. The simplified equations, more suitable for the computer model of robot’s dynamics are also shown.

Keywords: dynamics, mobile, robot, wheeled mobile robots

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18326 Optimization Based Obstacle Avoidance

Authors: R. Dariani, S. Schmidt, R. Kasper

Abstract:

Based on a non-linear single track model which describes the dynamics of vehicle, an optimal path planning strategy is developed. Real time optimization is used to generate reference control values to allow leading the vehicle alongside a calculated lane which is optimal for different objectives such as energy consumption, run time, safety or comfort characteristics. Strict mathematic formulation of the autonomous driving allows taking decision on undefined situation such as lane change or obstacle avoidance. Based on position of the vehicle, lane situation and obstacle position, the optimization problem is reformulated in real-time to avoid the obstacle and any car crash.

Keywords: autonomous driving, obstacle avoidance, optimal control, path planning

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18325 Determination of the Bank's Customer Risk Profile: Data Mining Applications

Authors: Taner Ersoz, Filiz Ersoz, Seyma Ozbilge

Abstract:

In this study, the clients who applied to a bank branch for loan were analyzed through data mining. The study was composed of the information such as amounts of loans received by personal and SME clients working with the bank branch, installment numbers, number of delays in loan installments, payments available in other banks and number of banks to which they are in debt between 2010 and 2013. The client risk profile was examined through Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, one of the decision tree classification methods. At the end of the study, 5 different types of customers have been determined on the decision tree. The classification of these types of customers has been created with the rating of those posing a risk for the bank branch and the customers have been classified according to the risk ratings.

Keywords: client classification, loan suitability, risk rating, CART analysis

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18324 Designing a Cricket Team Selection Method Using Super-Efficient DEA and Semi Variance Approach

Authors: Arnab Adhikari, Adrija Majumdar, Gaurav Gupta, Arnab Bisi

Abstract:

Team formation plays an instrumental role in the sports like cricket. Existing literature reveals that most of the works on player selection focus only on the players’ efficiency and ignore the consistency. It motivates us to design an improved player selection method based on both player’s efficiency and consistency. To measure the players’ efficiency measurement, we employ a modified data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique namely ‘super-efficient DEA model’. We design a modified consistency index based on semi variance approach. Here, we introduce a new parameter called ‘fitness index’ for consistency computation to assess a player’s fitness level. Finally, we devise a single performance score using both efficiency score and consistency score with the help of a linear programming model. To test the robustness of our method, we perform a rigorous numerical analysis to determine the all-time best One Day International (ODI) Cricket XI. Next, we conduct extensive comparative studies regarding efficiency scores, consistency scores, selected team between the existing methods and the proposed method and explain the rationale behind the improvement.

Keywords: decision support systems, sports, super-efficient data envelopment analysis, semi variance approach

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18323 Yaw Angle Effect on the Aerodynamic Performance of Rear-Roof Spoiler of Hatchback Vehicle

Authors: See-Yuan Cheng, Kwang-Yhee Chin, Shuhaimi Mansor

Abstract:

Rear-roof spoiler is commonly used for improving the aerodynamic performance of road vehicles. This study aims to investigate the effect of yaw angle on the effectiveness of strip-type rear-roof spoiler in providing lower drag and lift coefficients of a hatchback model. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method was used. The numerically obtained results were compared to the experimental data for validation of the CFD method. At increasing yaw angle, both the drag and lift coefficients of the model were to increase. In addition, the effectiveness of spoiler was deteriorated. These unfavorable effects were due to the formation of longitudinal vortices around the side edges of the model that had caused the surface pressure of the model to drop. Furthermore, there were significant crossflow structures developed behind the model at larger yaw angle, which were associated with the drop in the surface pressure of the rear section of the model and cause the drag coefficient to rise.

Keywords: Ahmed model, aerodynamics, spoiler, yaw angle

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18322 Enhance Concurrent Design Approach through a Design Methodology Based on an Artificial Intelligence Framework: Guiding Group Decision Making to Balanced Preliminary Design Solution

Authors: Loris Franchi, Daniele Calvi, Sabrina Corpino

Abstract:

This paper presents a design methodology in which stakeholders are assisted with the exploration of a so-called negotiation space, aiming to the maximization of both group social welfare and single stakeholder’s perceived utility. The outcome results in less design iterations needed for design convergence while obtaining a higher solution effectiveness. During the early stage of a space project, not only the knowledge about the system but also the decision outcomes often are unknown. The scenario is exacerbated by the fact that decisions taken in this stage imply delayed costs associated with them. Hence, it is necessary to have a clear definition of the problem under analysis, especially in the initial definition. This can be obtained thanks to a robust generation and exploration of design alternatives. This process must consider that design usually involves various individuals, who take decisions affecting one another. An effective coordination among these decision-makers is critical. Finding mutual agreement solution will reduce the iterations involved in the design process. To handle this scenario, the paper proposes a design methodology which, aims to speed-up the process of pushing the mission’s concept maturity level. This push up is obtained thanks to a guided negotiation space exploration, which involves autonomously exploration and optimization of trade opportunities among stakeholders via Artificial Intelligence algorithms. The negotiation space is generated via a multidisciplinary collaborative optimization method, infused by game theory and multi-attribute utility theory. In particular, game theory is able to model the negotiation process to reach the equilibria among stakeholder needs. Because of the huge dimension of the negotiation space, a collaborative optimization framework with evolutionary algorithm has been integrated in order to guide the game process to efficiently and rapidly searching for the Pareto equilibria among stakeholders. At last, the concept of utility constituted the mechanism to bridge the language barrier between experts of different backgrounds and differing needs, using the elicited and modeled needs to evaluate a multitude of alternatives. To highlight the benefits of the proposed methodology, the paper presents the design of a CubeSat mission for the observation of lunar radiation environment. The derived solution results able to balance all stakeholders needs and guaranteeing the effectiveness of the selection mission concept thanks to its robustness in valuable changeability. The benefits provided by the proposed design methodology are highlighted, and further development proposed.

Keywords: concurrent engineering, artificial intelligence, negotiation in engineering design, multidisciplinary optimization

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18321 Recognizing Customer Preferences Using Review Documents: A Hybrid Text and Data Mining Approach

Authors: Oshin Anand, Atanu Rakshit

Abstract:

The vast increment in the e-commerce ventures makes this area a prominent research stream. Besides several quantified parameters, the textual content of reviews is a storehouse of many information that can educate companies and help them earn profit. This study is an attempt in this direction. The article attempts to categorize data based on a computed metric that quantifies the influencing capacity of reviews rendering two categories of high and low influential reviews. Further, each of these document is studied to conclude several product feature categories. Each of these categories along with the computed metric is converted to linguistic identifiers and are used in an association mining model. The article makes a novel attempt to combine feature attraction with quantified metric to categorize review text and finally provide frequent patterns that depict customer preferences. Frequent mentions in a highly influential score depict customer likes or preferred features in the product whereas prominent pattern in low influencing reviews highlights what is not important for customers. This is achieved using a hybrid approach of text mining for feature and term extraction, sentiment analysis, multicriteria decision-making technique and association mining model.

Keywords: association mining, customer preference, frequent pattern, online reviews, text mining

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18320 European and Scandinavian Tourists' Perceptions and Desire to Travel in Ranong Province

Authors: Wipanee Maen-In

Abstract:

The objectives of the research are i) to study the motivations of european and scandinavian tourists who select Ranong province as their destinations ii) to study their perception towards the Ranong Province and iii) to study the visitors’ decision making while visiting Ranong Province. The samples of the study are 220 European and Scandinavian tourists’ visitors at the Ranong by accidental sampling and in clouding online questionnaires for 53 sampling. The data analysis includes Percentage, Frequency and One-way ANOVA. The findings from the research are the motivation level of the visitors is considered prominent, the average score of the motivational factors ranks higher than the average of the pull factors to visit the Ranong province when considering the factors analysis, the research shows that the reason that most tourists visit the Ranong is for relaxation while the purity of the natural mineral hot springs is the most important pull factor.

Keywords: European and Scandinavian, Ranong province, tourists’ perceptions, visitors’ decision making

Procedia PDF Downloads 232
18319 Service Blueprint for Improving Clinical Guideline Adherence via Mobile Health Technology

Authors: Y. O’Connor, C. Heavin, S. O’ Connor, J. Gallagher, J. Wu, J. O’Donoghue

Abstract:

Background: To improve the delivery of paediatric healthcare in resource-poor settings, Community Health Workers (CHW) have been provided with a paper-based set of protocols known as Community Case Management (CCM). Yet research has shown that CHW adherence to CCM guidelines is poor, ultimately impacting health service delivery. Digitising the CCM guidelines via mobile technology is argued in extant literature to improve CHW adherence. However, little research exist which outlines how (a) this process can be digitised and (b) adherence could be improved as a result. Aim: To explore how an electronic mobile version of CCM (eCCM) can overcome issues associated with the paper-based CCM protocol (poor adherence to guidelines) vis-à-vis service blueprinting. This service blueprint will outline how (a) the CCM process can be digitised using mobile Clinical Decision Support Systems software to support clinical decision-making and (b) adherence can be improved as a result. Method: Development of a single service blueprint for a standalone application which visually depicts the service processes (eCCM) when supporting the CHWs, using an application known as Supporting LIFE (Low cost Intervention For disEase control) as an exemplar. Results: A service blueprint is developed which illustrates how the eCCM solution can be utilised by CHWs to assist with the delivery of healthcare services to children. Leveraging smartphone technologies can (a) provide CHWs with just-in-time data to assist with their decision making at the point-of-care and (b) improve CHW adherence to CCM guidelines. Conclusions: The development of the eCCM opens up opportunities for the CHWs to leverage the inherent benefit of mobile devices to assist them with health service delivery in rural settings. To ensure that benefits are achieved, it is imperative to comprehend the functionality and form of the eCCM service process. By creating such a service blueprint for an eCCM approach, CHWs are provided with a clear picture regarding the role of the eCCM solution, often resulting in buy-in from the end-users.

Keywords: adherence, community health workers, developing countries, mobile clinical decision support systems, CDSS, service blueprint

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18318 Investigated Optimization of Davidson Path Loss Model for Digital Terrestrial Television (DTTV) Propagation in Urban Area

Authors: Pitak Keawbunsong, Sathaporn Promwong

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This paper presents an investigation on the efficiency of the optimized Davison path loss model in order to look for a suitable path loss model to design and planning DTTV propagation for small and medium urban areas in southern Thailand. Hadyai City in Songkla Province is chosen as the case study to collect the analytical data on the electric field strength. The optimization is conducted through the least square method while the efficiency index is through the statistical value of relative error (RE). The result of the least square method is the offset and slop of the frequency to be used in the optimized process. The statistical result shows that RE of the old Davidson model is at the least when being compared with the optimized Davison and the Hata models. Thus, the old Davison path loss model is the most accurate that further becomes the most optimized for the plan on the propagation network design.

Keywords: DTTV propagation, path loss model, Davidson model, least square method

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18317 Employee Assessment Systems in the Structures of Corporate Groups

Authors: D. Bąk-Grabowska, K. Grzesik, A. Iwanicka, A. Jagoda

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The process of human resources management in the structures of corporate groups demonstrates certain specificity, resulting from the division of decision-making and executive competencies, which occurs within these structures between a parent company and its subsidiaries. The subprocess of employee assessment is considered crucial, since it provides information for the implementation of personnel function. The empirical studies conducted in corporate groups, within which at least one company is located in Poland, confirmed the critical significance of employee assessment systems in the process of human resources management in corporate groups. Parent companies, most often, retain their decision-making authority within the framework of the discussed process and introduce uniform employee assessment and personnel controlling systems to subsidiary companies. However, the instruments for employee assessment applied in corporate groups do not present such specificity.

Keywords: corporate groups, employee periodical assessment system, holding, human resources management

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18316 Research on Online Consumption of College Students in China with Stimulate-Organism-Reaction Driven Model

Authors: Wei Lu

Abstract:

With the development of information technology in China, network consumption is becoming more and more popular. As a special group, college students have a high degree of education and distinct opinions and personalities. In the future, the key groups of network consumption have gradually become the focus groups of network consumption. Studying college students’ online consumption behavior has important theoretical significance and practical value. Based on the Stimulus-Organism-Response (SOR) driving model and the structural equation model, this paper establishes the influencing factors model of College students’ online consumption behavior, evaluates and amends the model by using SPSS and AMOS software, analyses and determines the positive factors of marketing college students’ consumption, and provides an effective basis for guiding and promoting college student consumption.

Keywords: college students, online consumption, stimulate-organism-reaction driving model, structural equation model

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18315 IT and Security Experts' Innovation and Investment Front for IT-Entrepreneurship in Pakistan

Authors: Ahmed Mateen, Zhu Qingsheng, Muhammad Awais, Muhammad Yahya Saeed

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This paper targets the rising factor of entrepreneurship innovation, which lacks in Pakistan as compared to the other countries or the regions like China, India, and Malaysia, etc. This is an exploratory and explanatory study. Major aspects have identified as the direction for the policymakers while highlighting the issues in true spirit. IT needs to be considered not only as a technology but also as itself growing as a new community. IT management processes are complex and broad, so generally requires extensive attention to the collective aspects of human variables, capital and technology. In addition, projects tend to have a special set of critical success factors, and if these are processed and given attention, it will improve the chances of successful implementation. This is only possible with state of the art intelligent decision support systems and accumulating IT staff to some extent in decision processes. This paper explores this issue carefully and discusses six issues to observe the implemented strength and possible enhancement.

Keywords: security and defense forces, IT-incentives, big IT-players, IT-entrepreneurial-culture

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18314 Tax Competition and Partial Tax Coordination under Fiscal Decentralization

Authors: Patricia Sanz-Cordoba, Bernd Theilen

Abstract:

This article analyzes the conditions where decentralization and partial tax harmonization in a coalition of asymmetric jurisdictions plays a role in the fight of fiscal competition (i.e. the race to bottom). Starting from a centralized economies, we use the ZM-W model to analyze the fiscal competition and coordination among three countries. We find that the asymmetry of jurisdictions facilitates partial tax harmonization between jurisdictions when these asymmetries are not too large. Furthermore, when the asymmetries are large enough, the level of labor tax plays an important role in the decision of decentralize capital tax. Accordingly, decentralization is achievable when labor tax is low. This result indicates that decentralization and partial tax harmonization between jurisdictions can be possible results in order to fight the negative externalities from fiscal competition, and more in the European Union countries where the asymmetries are substantial.

Keywords: centralization, decentralization, fiscal competition, partial tax harmonization

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18313 The Relationship between Confidence, Accuracy, and Decision Making in a Mobile Review Program

Authors: Carla Van De Sande, Jana Vandenberg

Abstract:

Just like physical skills, cognitive skills grow rusty over time unless they are regularly used and practiced, so academic breaks can have negative consequences on student learning and success. The Keeping in School Shape (KiSS) program is an engaging, accessible, and cost-effective intervention that harnesses the benefits of retrieval practice by using technology to help students maintain proficiency over breaks from school by delivering a daily review problem via text message or email. A growth mindset is promoted through feedback messages encouraging students to try again if they get a problem wrong and to take on a challenging problem if they get a problem correct. This paper reports on the relationship between confidence, accuracy, and decision-making during the implementation of the KiSS Program at a large university during winter break for students enrolled in an engineering introductory Calculus course sequence.

Keywords: growth mindset, learning loss, on-the-go learning, retrieval practice

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18312 Cognitive Characteristics of Industrial Workers in Fuzzy Risk Assessment

Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Sang-Hun Byun

Abstract:

Risk assessment is carried out in most industrial plants for accident prevention, but there exists insufficient data for statistical decision making. It is commonly said that risk can be expressed as a product of consequence and likelihood of a corresponding hazard factor. Eventually, therefore, risk assessment involves human decision making which cannot be objective per se. This study was carried out to comprehend perceptive characteristics of human beings in industrial plants. Subjects were shown a set of illustrations describing scenes of industrial plants, and were asked to assess the risk of each scene with not only linguistic variables but also numeric scores in the aspect of consequence and likelihood. After that, their responses were formulated as fuzzy membership functions, and compared with those of university students who had no experience of industrial works. The results showed that risk level of industrial workers were lower than those of any other groups, which implied that the workers might generally have a tendency to neglect more hazard factors in their work fields.

Keywords: fuzzy, hazard, linguistic variable, risk assessment

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18311 Development of an Image-Based Biomechanical Model for Assessment of Hip Fracture Risk

Authors: Masoud Nasiri Sarvi, Yunhua Luo

Abstract:

Low-trauma hip fracture, usually caused by fall from standing height, has become a main source of morbidity and mortality for the elderly. Factors affecting hip fracture include sex, race, age, body weight, height, body mass distribution, etc., and thus, hip fracture risk in fall differs widely from subject to subject. It is therefore necessary to develop a subject-specific biomechanical model to predict hip fracture risk. The objective of this study is to develop a two-level, image-based, subject-specific biomechanical model consisting of a whole-body dynamics model and a proximal-femur finite element (FE) model for more accurately assessing the risk of hip fracture in lateral falls. Required information for constructing the model is extracted from a whole-body and a hip DXA (Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry) image of the subject. The proposed model considers all parameters subject-specifically, which will provide a fast, accurate, and non-expensive method for predicting hip fracture risk.

Keywords: bone mineral density, hip fracture risk, impact force, sideways falls

Procedia PDF Downloads 536
18310 A Quantitative Model for Replacement of Medical Equipment Based on Technical and Environmental Factors

Authors: Ghadeer Mohammad Said El-Sheikh, Samer Mohamad Shalhoob

Abstract:

Medical equipment operation state is a valid reflection of health care organizations' performance, where such equipment highly contributes to the quality of healthcare services on several levels in which quality improvement has become an intrinsic part of the discourse and activities of health care services. In healthcare organizations, clinical and biomedical engineering departments play an essential role in maintaining the safety and efficiency of such equipment. One of the most challenging topics when it comes to such sophisticated equipment is the lifespan of medical equipment, where many factors will impact such characteristics of medical equipment through its life cycle. So far, many attempts have been made in order to address this issue where most of the approaches are kind of arbitrary approaches and one of the criticisms of existing approaches trying to estimate and understand the lifetime of a medical equipment lies under the inquiry of what are the environmental factors that can play into such a critical characteristic of a medical equipment. In an attempt to address this shortcoming, the purpose of our study rises where in addition to the standard technical factors taken into consideration through the decision-making process by a clinical engineer in case of medical equipment failure, the dimension of environmental factors shall be added. The investigations, researches and studies applied for the purpose of supporting the decision making process by a clinical engineers and assessing the lifespan of healthcare equipment’s in the Lebanese society was highly dependent on the identification of technical criteria’s that impacts the lifespan of a medical equipment where the affecting environmental factors didn’t receive the proper attention. The objective of our study is based on the need for introducing a new well-designed plan for evaluating medical equipment depending on two dimensions. According to this approach, the equipment that should be replaced or repaired will be classified based on a systematic method taking into account two essential criteria; the standard identified technical criteria and the added environmental criteria.

Keywords: technical, environmental, healthcare, characteristic of medical equipment

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18309 Physical Education Teacher's Interpretation toward Teaching Games for Understanding Model

Authors: Soni Nopembri

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to evaluate the implementation of teaching games for Understanding model by conducting action to physical education teacher who have got long teaching experience. The research applied Participatory Action Research. The subjects of this research were 19 physical education teachers who had got training of Teaching Games for Understanding. Data collection was conducted intensively through a questionnaire, in-depth interview, Focus Group Discussion (FGD), observation, and documentation. The collected data was analysis zed qualitatively and quantitatively. The result showed that physical education teachers had got an appropriate interpretation on TGfU model. Some indicators that were the focus of this research indicated this points; they are: (1) physical education teachers had good understanding toward TGfU model, (2) PE teachers’ competence in applying TGfU model on Physical Education at school were adequate, though some improvement were needed, (3) the influence factors in the implementation of TGfU model, in sequence, were teacher, facilities, environment, and students factors, (4) PE teachers’ perspective toward TGfU model were positively good, although some teachers were less optimistic toward the development of TGfU model in the future.

Keywords: TGfU, physical education teacher, teaching games, FGD

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18308 Geomechanical Numerical Modeling of Well Wall in Drilling with Finite Difference Method

Authors: Marzieh Zarei

Abstract:

Well instability is one of the most fundamental challenges faced by the oil and gas industry. Well wall stability analysis is a gap to be filled in the oil industry. The collection of static data such as well logging leads to the construction of a geomechanical numerical model, which will help in assessing the probable risks in future drilling. In this paper, geomechanical model was designed, and mechanical properties of the rock was determined at all points of the model. It was found the safe mud window was determined and the minimum and maximum mud pressures were determined in the ranges of 70-60 MPa and 110-100 MPa, respectively.

Keywords: geomechanics, numerical model, well stability, in-situ stress, underbalanced drilling

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18307 Need for Cognition: An Important, Neglected Personality Variable in the Development of Spirituality Within the Context of Twelve Step Recovery from Addictive Disorders

Authors: Paul E. Priester

Abstract:

The Twelve Step approach to recovery from substance use and addictive disorders is considered an evidence-based model that assists many who recover from a chronic, progressive, fatal disease. Two key processes that contribute to the success of obtaining recovery from substance use disorders (SUD) are meeting engagement and the development of spiritual beliefs. Beyond establishing that there is a positive relationship between the development of spiritual beliefs in recovery from SUD’s, there has been a paucity of research exploring individual differences among individuals in this development of spiritual beliefs. One such personality variable that deserves exploration is that of the need for cognition. The need for cognition is a personality variable that explains the cognitive style of individuals. Individuals with a high need for cognition enjoy examining the complexities of a situation before coming to a conclusion. While individuals with a low need for cognition do not value or spend time cognitively dissecting a situation or decision. It is important to point out that a high need for cognition does not necessarily imply a high level of cognitive ability. Indeed, one could make the argument that a low need for cognition individual is not “wasting” cognitive energy in perseverating the multitude of aspects of a particular decision. This paper will present two case studies demonstrating the development of spiritual beliefs that enabled long-term recovery from SUD. The first case study presents an agnostic individual with a low need for cognition cognitive style in his development of spirituality in support of his recovery from alcoholism within the context of Alcoholics Anonymous. The second case study represents an adamant atheist with a high need for cognition cognitive style. This second individual is an intravenous cocaine addict and alcoholic who recovers through the development of spirituality within the contexts of Alcoholics Anonymous and Narcotics Anonymous. The two case studies will be contrasted with each other, noting how the individuals’ cognitive style mediated the development of spirituality that supported their long-term recovery from alcoholism and addiction.

Keywords: spirituality, twelve step recovery, need for cognition, individual differences in recovery from addictions

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18306 Cooperative Spectrum Sensing Using Hybrid IWO/PSO Algorithm in Cognitive Radio Networks

Authors: Deepa Das, Susmita Das

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Cognitive Radio (CR) is an emerging technology to combat the spectrum scarcity issues. This is achieved by consistently sensing the spectrum, and detecting the under-utilized frequency bands without causing undue interference to the primary user (PU). In soft decision fusion (SDF) based cooperative spectrum sensing, various evolutionary algorithms have been discussed, which optimize the weight coefficient vector for maximizing the detection performance. In this paper, we propose the hybrid invasive weed optimization and particle swarm optimization (IWO/PSO) algorithm as a fast and global optimization method, which improves the detection probability with a lesser sensing time. Then, the efficiency of this algorithm is compared with the standard invasive weed optimization (IWO), particle swarm optimization (PSO), genetic algorithm (GA) and other conventional SDF based methods on the basis of convergence and detection probability.

Keywords: cognitive radio, spectrum sensing, soft decision fusion, GA, PSO, IWO, hybrid IWO/PSO

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18305 Study of the Protection of Induction Motors

Authors: Bencheikh Abdellah

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In this paper, we present a mathematical model dedicated to the simulation breaks bars in a three-phase cage induction motor. This model is based on a mesh circuit representing the rotor cage. The tested simulation allowed us to demonstrate the effectiveness of this model to describe the behavior of the machine in a healthy state, failure.

Keywords: AC motors, squirrel cage, diagnostics, MATLAB, SIMULINK

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18304 Dynamic Model of Heterogeneous Markets with Imperfect Information for the Optimization of Company's Long-Time Strategy

Authors: Oleg Oborin

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This paper is dedicated to the development of the model, which can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of long-term corporate strategies and identify the best strategies. The theoretical model of the relatively homogenous product market (such as iron and steel industry, mobile services or road transport) has been developed. In the model, the market consists of a large number of companies with different internal characteristics and objectives. The companies can perform mergers and acquisitions in order to increase their market share. The model allows the simulation of long-time dynamics of the market (for a period longer than 20 years). Therefore, a large number of simulations on random input data was conducted in the framework of the model. After that, the results of the model were compared with the dynamics of real markets, such as the US steel industry from the beginning of the XX century to the present day, and the market of mobile services in Germany for the period between 1990 and 2015.

Keywords: Economic Modelling, Long-Time Strategy, Mergers and Acquisitions, Simulation

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18303 Life Prediction Method of Lithium-Ion Battery Based on Grey Support Vector Machines

Authors: Xiaogang Li, Jieqiong Miao

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As for the problem of the grey forecasting model prediction accuracy is low, an improved grey prediction model is put forward. Firstly, use trigonometric function transform the original data sequence in order to improve the smoothness of data , this model called SGM( smoothness of grey prediction model), then combine the improved grey model with support vector machine , and put forward the grey support vector machine model (SGM - SVM).Before the establishment of the model, we use trigonometric functions and accumulation generation operation preprocessing data in order to enhance the smoothness of the data and weaken the randomness of the data, then use support vector machine (SVM) to establish a prediction model for pre-processed data and select model parameters using genetic algorithms to obtain the optimum value of the global search. Finally, restore data through the "regressive generate" operation to get forecasting data. In order to prove that the SGM-SVM model is superior to other models, we select the battery life data from calce. The presented model is used to predict life of battery and the predicted result was compared with that of grey model and support vector machines.For a more intuitive comparison of the three models, this paper presents root mean square error of this three different models .The results show that the effect of grey support vector machine (SGM-SVM) to predict life is optimal, and the root mean square error is only 3.18%. Keywords: grey forecasting model, trigonometric function, support vector machine, genetic algorithms, root mean square error

Keywords: Grey prediction model, trigonometric functions, support vector machines, genetic algorithms, root mean square error

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18302 Modelling Export Dynamics in the CSEE Countries Using GVAR Model

Authors: S. Jakšić, B. Žmuk

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The paper investigates the key factors of export dynamics for a set of Central and Southeast European (CSEE) countries in the context of current economic and financial crisis. In order to model the export dynamics a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model is defined. As opposed to models which model each country separately, the GVAR combines all country models in a global model which enables obtaining important information on spill-over effects in the context of globalization and rising international linkages. The results of the study indicate that for most of the CSEE countries, exports are mainly driven by domestic shocks, both in the short run and in the long run. This study is the first application of the GVAR model to studying the export dynamics in the CSEE countries and therefore the results of the study present an important empirical contribution.

Keywords: export, GFEVD, global VAR, international trade, weak exogeneity

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18301 A Qualitative Study to Analyze Clinical Coders’ Decision Making Process of Adverse Drug Event Admissions

Authors: Nisa Mohan

Abstract:

Clinical coding is a feasible method for estimating the national prevalence of adverse drug event (ADE) admissions. However, under-coding of ADE admissions is a limitation of this method. Whilst the under-coding will impact the accurate estimation of the actual burden of ADEs, the feasibility of the coded data in estimating the adverse drug event admissions goes much further compared to the other methods. Therefore, it is necessary to know the reasons for the under-coding in order to improve the clinical coding of ADE admissions. The ability to identify the reasons for the under-coding of ADE admissions rests on understanding the decision-making process of coding ADE admissions. Hence, the current study aimed to explore the decision-making process of clinical coders when coding cases of ADE admissions. Clinical coders from different levels of coding job such as trainee, intermediate and advanced level coders were purposefully selected for the interviews. Thirteen clinical coders were recruited from two Auckland region District Health Board hospitals for the interview study. Semi-structured, one-on-one, face-to-face interviews using open-ended questions were conducted with the selected clinical coders. Interviews were about 20 to 30 minutes long and were audio-recorded with the approval of the participants. The interview data were analysed using a general inductive approach. The interviews with the clinical coders revealed that the coders have targets to meet, and they sometimes hesitate to adhere to the coding standards. Coders deviate from the standard coding processes to make a decision. Coders avoid contacting the doctors for clarifying small doubts such as ADEs and the name of the medications because of the delay in getting a reply from the doctors. They prefer to do some research themselves or take help from their seniors and colleagues for making a decision because they can avoid a long wait to get a reply from the doctors. Coders think of ADE as a small thing. Lack of time for searching for information to confirm an ADE admission, inadequate communication with clinicians, along with coders’ belief that an ADE is a small thing may contribute to the under-coding of the ADE admissions. These findings suggest that further work is needed on interventions to improve the clinical coding of ADE admissions. Providing education to coders about the importance of ADEs, educating clinicians about the importance of clear and confirmed medical records entries, availing pharmacists’ services to improve the detection and clear documentation of ADE admissions, and including a mandatory field in the discharge summary about external causes of diseases may be useful for improving the clinical coding of ADE admissions. The findings of the research will help the policymakers to make informed decisions about the improvements. This study urges the coding policymakers, auditors, and trainers to engage with the unconscious cognitive biases and short-cuts of the clinical coders. This country-specific research conducted in New Zealand may also benefit other countries by providing insight into the clinical coding of ADE admissions and will offer guidance about where to focus changes and improvement initiatives.

Keywords: adverse drug events, clinical coders, decision making, hospital admissions

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18300 Civic E-Participation in Central and Eastern Europe: A Comparative Analysis

Authors: Izabela Kapsa

Abstract:

Civic participation is an important aspect of democracy. The contemporary model of democracy is based on citizens' participation in political decision-making (deliberative democracy, participatory democracy). This participation takes many forms of activities like display of slogans and symbols, voting, social consultations, political demonstrations, membership in political parties or organizing civil disobedience. The countries of Central and Eastern Europe after 1989 are characterized by great social, economic and political diversity. Civil society is also part of the process of democratization. Civil society, funded by the rule of law, civil rights, such as freedom of speech and association and private ownership, was to play a central role in the development of liberal democracy. Among the many interpretations of concepts, defining the concept of contemporary democracy, one can assume that the terms civil society and democracy, although different in meaning, nowadays overlap. In the post-communist countries, the process of shaping and maturing societies took place in the context of a struggle with a state governed by undemocratic power. State fraud or repudiation of the institution is a representative state, which in the past was the only way to manifest and defend its identity, but after the breakthrough became one of the main obstacles to the development of civil society. In Central and Eastern Europe, there are many obstacles to the development of civil society, for example, the elimination of economic poverty, the implementation of educational campaigns, consciousness-related obstacles, the formation of social capital and the deficit of social activity. Obviously, civil society does not only entail an electoral turnout but a broader participation in the decision-making process, which is impossible without direct and participative democratic institutions. This article considers such broad forms of civic participation and their characteristics in Central and Eastern Europe. The paper is attempts to analyze the functioning of electronic forms of civic participation in Central and Eastern European states. This is not accompanied by a referendum or a referendum initiative, and other forms of political participation, such as public consultations, participative budgets, or e-Government. However, this paper will broadly present electronic administration tools, the application of which results from both legal regulations and increasingly common practice in state and city management. In the comparative analysis, the experiences of post-communist bloc countries will be summed up to indicate the challenges and possible goals for further development of this form of citizen participation in the political process. The author argues that for to function efficiently and effectively, states need to involve their citizens in the political decision-making process, especially with the use of electronic tools.

Keywords: Central and Eastern Europe, e-participation, e-government, post-communism

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18299 Simplified 3R2C Building Thermal Network Model: A Case Study

Authors: S. M. Mahbobur Rahman

Abstract:

Whole building energy simulation models are widely used for predicting future energy consumption, performance diagnosis and optimum control.  Black box building energy modeling approach has been heavily studied in the past decade. The thermal response of a building can also be modeled using a network of interconnected resistors (R) and capacitors (C) at each node called R-C network. In this study, a model building, Case 600, as described in the “Standard Method of Test for the Evaluation of Building Energy Analysis Computer Program”, ASHRAE standard 140, is studied along with a 3R2C thermal network model and the ASHRAE clear sky solar radiation model. Although building an energy model involves two important parts of building component i.e., the envelope and internal mass, the effect of building internal mass is not considered in this study. All the characteristic parameters of the building envelope are evaluated as on Case 600. Finally, monthly building energy consumption from the thermal network model is compared with a simple-box energy model within reasonable accuracy. From the results, 0.6-9.4% variation of monthly energy consumption is observed because of the south-facing windows.

Keywords: ASHRAE case study, clear sky solar radiation model, energy modeling, thermal network model

Procedia PDF Downloads 146
18298 Understanding Help Seeking among Black Women with Clinically Significant Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms

Authors: Glenda Wrenn, Juliet Muzere, Meldra Hall, Allyson Belton, Kisha Holden, Chanita Hughes-Halbert, Martha Kent, Bekh Bradley

Abstract:

Understanding the help seeking decision making process and experiences of health disparity populations with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is central to development of trauma-informed, culturally centered, and patient focused services. Yet, little is known about the decision making process among adult Black women who are non-treatment seekers as they are, by definition, not engaged in services. Methods: Audiotaped interviews were conducted with 30 African American adult women with clinically significant PTSD symptoms who were engaged in primary care, but not in treatment for PTSD despite symptom burden. A qualitative interview guide was used to elucidate key themes. Independent coding of themes mapped to theory and identification of emergent themes were conducted using qualitative methods. An existing quantitative dataset was analyzed to contextualize responses and provide a descriptive summary of the sample. Results: Emergent themes revealed that active mental avoidance, the intermittent nature of distress, ambivalence, and self-identified resilience as undermining to help seeking decisions. Participants were stuck within the help-seeking phase of ‘recognition’ of illness and retained a sense of “it is my decision” despite endorsing significant social and environmental negative influencers. Participants distinguished ‘help acceptance’ from ‘help seeking’ with greater willingness to accept help and importance placed on being of help to others. Conclusions: Elucidation of the decision-making process from the perspective of non-treatment seekers has implications for outreach and treatment within models of integrated and specialty systems care. The salience of responses to trauma symptoms and stagnation in the help seeking recognition phase are findings relevant to integrated care service design and community engagement.

Keywords: culture, help-seeking, integrated care, PTSD

Procedia PDF Downloads 235