Search results for: decision matrix
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6053

Search results for: decision matrix

4793 From Manipulation to Citizen Control: A Case Study Revealing the Level of Participation in the Citizen Participatory Audit

Authors: Mark Jason E. Arca, Jay Vee R. Linatoc, Rex Francis N. Lupango, Michael Joe A. Ramirez

Abstract:

Participation promises an avenue for citizens to take part in governance, but it does not necessarily mean effective participation. The proper integration of participants in the decision-making process should be properly addressed to ensure effectiveness. This study explores the integration of the participants in the decision-making process to reveal the level of participation in the Solid Waste Management audit done by the Citizen Participatory Audit (CPA), a program under the supervision of the Commission on Audit. Specifically, this study will use the experience of participation to identify emerging themes that will help reveal the level of participation through the integrated ladder of participation. The researchers used key informant interviews to gather necessary data from the actors of the program. The findings revealed that the level of participation present in the CPA is at the Placation level, a level below the program’s targeted level of participation. The study also allowed the researchers to reveal facilitating factors in the program that contributed to a better understanding of the practice of participation.

Keywords: citizen participation, culture of participation, ladder of participation, level of participation

Procedia PDF Downloads 407
4792 Wound Healing Potential and Comparison of Mummy Substance Effect on Adipose and Wharton’s Jelly-Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells Co-Cultured with Human Fibroblast

Authors: Sepideh Hassanpour Khodaei

Abstract:

Background/Objectives: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of mummy substances on two issues of proliferation and production of matrix protein synthesis in wound healing. Methods: The methodology used for this aim involves isolating mesenchymal stem cells and human fibroblasts procured at Pastor Institute, Iran. The cells were treated with mummy substances separately and co-cultured between ASCs and WJSCs, and fibroblasts. Proliferation was assessed by Ki67 method in monolayer conditions. Synthesis of components of extracellular matrix (ECM) such as collagen type I, type III, and fibronectin 1 (FN1) was determined by qPCR. Results: The effects of adipocyte stem cells (ASCs), Wharton Jelly Stem Cells (WJSCs), and Mummy material on fibroblast proliferation and migration were evaluated. The present finding underlined the importance of Mummy material, ASCs, and WJSCs in the proliferation and migration of fibroblast cells. Furthermore, the expression of collagen I, III, and FN1 was increased in the presence of the above material and cells. Conclusion: This study presented an effective in vitro method for the healing process. Hence, the prospect of utilizing Mummy material and stem cell-based therapies in wound healing as a therapeutic approach is promising.

Keywords: mummy material, wound healing, adipose tissue, Wharton’s jelly

Procedia PDF Downloads 101
4791 An Observer-Based Direct Adaptive Fuzzy Sliding Control with Adjustable Membership Functions

Authors: Alireza Gholami, Amir H. D. Markazi

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In this paper, an observer-based direct adaptive fuzzy sliding mode (OAFSM) algorithm is proposed. In the proposed algorithm, the zero-input dynamics of the plant could be unknown. The input connection matrix is used to combine the sliding surfaces of individual subsystems, and an adaptive fuzzy algorithm is used to estimate an equivalent sliding mode control input directly. The fuzzy membership functions, which were determined by time consuming try and error processes in previous works, are adjusted by adaptive algorithms. The other advantage of the proposed controller is that the input gain matrix is not limited to be diagonal, i.e. the plant could be over/under actuated provided that controllability and observability are preserved. An observer is constructed to directly estimate the state tracking error, and the nonlinear part of the observer is constructed by an adaptive fuzzy algorithm. The main advantage of the proposed observer is that, the measured outputs is not limited to the first entry of a canonical-form state vector. The closed-loop stability of the proposed method is proved using a Lyapunov-based approach. The proposed method is applied numerically on a multi-link robot manipulator, which verifies the performance of the closed-loop control. Moreover, the performance of the proposed algorithm is compared with some conventional control algorithms.

Keywords: adaptive algorithm, fuzzy systems, membership functions, observer

Procedia PDF Downloads 198
4790 A Network Optimization Study of Logistics for Enhancing Emergency Preparedness in Asia-Pacific

Authors: Giuseppe Timperio, Robert De Souza

Abstract:

The combination of factors such as temperamental climate change, rampant urbanization of risk exposed areas, political and social instabilities, is posing an alarming base for the further growth of number and magnitude of humanitarian crises worldwide. Given the unique features of humanitarian supply chain such as unpredictability of demand in space, time, and geography, spike in the number of requests for relief items in the first days after the calamity, uncertain state of logistics infrastructures, large volumes of unsolicited low-priority items, a proactive approach towards design of disaster response operations is needed to achieve high agility in mobilization of emergency supplies in the immediate aftermath of the event. This paper is an attempt in that direction, and it provides decision makers with crucial strategic insights for a more effective network design for disaster response. Decision sciences and ICT are integrated to analyse the robustness and resilience of a prepositioned network of emergency strategic stockpiles for a real-life case about Indonesia, one of the most vulnerable countries in Asia-Pacific, with the model being built upon a rich set of quantitative data. At this aim, a network optimization approach was implemented, with several what-if scenarios being accurately developed and tested. Findings of this study are able to support decision makers facing challenges related with disaster relief chains resilience, particularly about optimal configuration of supply chain facilities and optimal flows across the nodes, while considering the network structure from an end-to-end in-country distribution perspective.

Keywords: disaster preparedness, humanitarian logistics, network optimization, resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 170
4789 Genetic Algorithm Optimization of a Small Scale Natural Gas Liquefaction Process

Authors: M. I. Abdelhamid, A. O. Ghallab, R. S. Ettouney, M. A. El-Rifai

Abstract:

An optimization scheme based on COM server is suggested for communication between Genetic Algorithm (GA) toolbox of MATLAB and Aspen HYSYS. The structure and details of the proposed framework are discussed. The power of the developed scheme is illustrated by its application to the optimization of a recently developed natural gas liquefaction process in which Aspen HYSYS was used for minimization of the power consumption by optimizing the values of five operating variables. In this work, optimization by coupling between the GA in MATLAB and Aspen HYSYS model of the same process using the same five decision variables enabled improvements in power consumption by 3.3%, when 77% of the natural gas feed is liquefied. Also on inclusion of the flow rates of both nitrogen and carbon dioxide refrigerants as two additional decision variables, the power consumption decreased by 6.5% for a 78% liquefaction of the natural gas feed.

Keywords: stranded gas liquefaction, genetic algorithm, COM server, single nitrogen expansion, carbon dioxide pre-cooling

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4788 On-line Control of the Natural and Anthropogenic Safety in Krasnoyarsk Region

Authors: T. Penkova, A. Korobko, V. Nicheporchuk, L. Nozhenkova, A. Metus

Abstract:

This paper presents an approach of on-line control of the state of technosphere and environment objects based on the integration of Data Warehouse, OLAP and Expert systems technologies. It looks at the structure and content of data warehouse that provides consolidation and storage of monitoring data. There is a description of OLAP-models that provide a multidimensional analysis of monitoring data and dynamic analysis of principal parameters of controlled objects. The authors suggest some criteria of emergency risk assessment using expert knowledge about danger levels. It is demonstrated now some of the proposed solutions could be adopted in territorial decision making support systems. Operational control allows authorities to detect threat, prevent natural and anthropogenic emergencies and ensure a comprehensive safety of territory.

Keywords: decision making support systems, emergency risk assessment, natural and anthropogenic safety, on-line control, territory

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4787 Risk and Emotion: Measuring the Effect of Emotion and Other Visceral Factors on Decision Making under Risk

Authors: Michael Mihalicz, Aziz Guergachi

Abstract:

Background: The science of modelling choice preferences has evolved over centuries into an interdisciplinary field contributing to several branches of Microeconomics and Mathematical Psychology. Early theories in Decision Science rested on the logic of rationality, but as it and related fields matured, descriptive theories emerged capable of explaining systematic violations of rationality through cognitive mechanisms underlying the thought processes that guide human behaviour. Cognitive limitations are not, however, solely responsible for systematic deviations from rationality and many are now exploring the effect of visceral factors as the more dominant drivers. The current study builds on the existing literature by exploring sleep deprivation, thermal comfort, stress, hunger, fear, anger and sadness as moderators to three distinct elements that define individual risk preference under Cumulative Prospect Theory. Methodology: This study is designed to compare the risk preference of participants experiencing an elevated affective or visceral state to those in a neutral state using nonparametric elicitation methods across three domains. Two experiments will be conducted simultaneously using different methodologies. The first will determine visceral states and risk preferences randomly over a two-week period by prompting participants to complete an online survey remotely. In each round of questions, participants will be asked to self-assess their current state using Visual Analogue Scales before answering a series of lottery-style elicitation questions. The second experiment will be conducted in a laboratory setting using psychological primes to induce a desired state. In this experiment, emotional states will be recorded using emotion analytics and used a basis for comparison between the two methods. Significance: The expected results include a series of measurable and systematic effects on the subjective interpretations of gamble attributes and evidence supporting the proposition that a portion of the variability in human choice preferences unaccounted for by cognitive limitations can be explained by interacting visceral states. Significant results will promote awareness about the subconscious effect that emotions and other drive states have on the way people process and interpret information, and can guide more effective decision making by informing decision-makers of the sources and consequences of irrational behaviour.

Keywords: decision making, emotions, prospect theory, visceral factors

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4786 Hybrid Subspace Approach for Time Delay Estimation in MIMO Systems

Authors: Mojtaba Saeedinezhad, Sarah Yousefi

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a hybrid subspace approach for Time Delay Estimation (TDE) in multivariable systems. While several methods have been proposed for time delay estimation in SISO systems, delay estimation in MIMO systems were always a big challenge. In these systems the existing TDE methods have significant limitations because most of procedures are just based on system response estimation or correlation analysis. We introduce a new hybrid method for TDE in MIMO systems based on subspace identification and explicit output error method; and compare its performance with previously introduced procedures in presence of different noise levels and in a statistical manner. Then the best method is selected with multi objective decision making technique. It is shown that the performance of new approach is much better than the existing methods, even in low signal-to-noise conditions.

Keywords: system identification, time delay estimation, ARX, OE, merit ratio, multi variable decision making

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4785 Buffer Allocation and Traffic Shaping Policies Implemented in Routers Based on a New Adaptive Intelligent Multi Agent Approach

Authors: M. Taheri Tehrani, H. Ajorloo

Abstract:

In this paper, an intelligent multi-agent framework is developed for each router in which agents have two vital functionalities, traffic shaping and buffer allocation and are positioned in the ports of the routers. With traffic shaping functionality agents shape the traffic forward by dynamic and real time allocation of the rate of generation of tokens in a Token Bucket algorithm and with buffer allocation functionality agents share their buffer capacity between each other based on their need and the conditions of the network. This dynamic and intelligent framework gives this opportunity to some ports to work better under burst and more busy conditions. These agents work intelligently based on Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithm and will consider effective parameters in their decision process. As RL have limitation considering much parameter in its decision process due to the volume of calculations, we utilize our novel method which invokes Principle Component Analysis (PCA) on the RL and gives a high dimensional ability to this algorithm to consider as much as needed parameters in its decision process. This implementation when is compared to our previous work where traffic shaping was done without any sharing and dynamic allocation of buffer size for each port, the lower packet drop in the whole network specifically in the source routers can be seen. These methods are implemented in our previous proposed intelligent simulation environment to be able to compare better the performance metrics. The results obtained from this simulation environment show an efficient and dynamic utilization of resources in terms of bandwidth and buffer capacities pre allocated to each port.

Keywords: principal component analysis, reinforcement learning, buffer allocation, multi- agent systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 511
4784 A Closed-Loop Design Model for Sustainable Manufacturing by Integrating Forward Design and Reverse Design

Authors: Yuan-Jye Tseng, Yi-Shiuan Chen

Abstract:

In this paper, a new concept of closed-loop design model is presented. The closed-loop design model is developed by integrating forward design and reverse design. Based on this new concept, a closed-loop design model for sustainable manufacturing by integrated evaluation of forward design, reverse design, and green manufacturing using a fuzzy analytic network process is developed. In the design stage of a product, with a given product requirement and objective, there can be different ways to design the detailed components and specifications. Therefore, there can be different design cases to achieve the same product requirement and objective. Thus, in the design evaluation stage, it is required to analyze and evaluate the different design cases. The purpose of this research is to develop a model for evaluating the design cases by integrated evaluation of forward design, reverse design, and green manufacturing models. A fuzzy analytic network process model is presented for integrated evaluation of the criteria in the three models. The comparison matrices for evaluating the criteria in the three groups are established. The total relational values among the three groups represent the total relational effects. In application, a super matrix can be created and the total relational values can be used to evaluate the design cases for decision-making to select the final design case. An example product is demonstrated in this presentation. It shows that the model is useful for integrated evaluation of forward design, reverse design, and green manufacturing to achieve a closed-loop design for sustainable manufacturing objective.

Keywords: design evaluation, forward design, reverse design, closed-loop design, supply chain management, closed-loop supply chain, fuzzy analytic network process

Procedia PDF Downloads 663
4783 Biobased Facade: Illuminated Natural Fibre Polymer with Cardboard Core

Authors: Ralf Gliniorz, Carolin Petzoldt, Andreas Ehrlich, Sandra Gelbrich, Lothar Kroll

Abstract:

The building envelope is integral part of buildings, and renewable resources have a key role in energy consumption. So our aim was the development and implementation of a free forming facade system, consisting of fibre-reinforced polymer, which is built up of commercial biobased resin systems and natural fibre reinforcement. The field of application is aimed in modern architecture, like the office block 'Fachagentur Nachwachsende Rohstoffe e.V.' with its oak wood recyclate facade. The build-up of our elements is a classically sandwich-structured composite: face sheets as fibre-reinforced composite using polymer matrix, here a biobased epoxy, and natural fibres. The biobased core consists of stuck cardboard structure (BC-flute). Each element is manufactured from two shells in a counterpart, via hand lay-up laminate. These natural fibre skins and cardboard core have adhered 'wet-on-wet'. As a result, you get the effect of translucent face sheets with matrix illumination. Each created pixel can be controlled in RGB-colours and form together a screen at buildings. A 10 x 5 m² area 'NFP-BIO' with 25 elements is planned as a reference object in Chemnitz. The resolution is about 100 x 50 pixels. Specials are also the efficient technology of production and the possibility to extensively 3D-formed elements for buildings, replacing customary facade systems, which can give out information or advertising.

Keywords: biobased facade, cardboard core, natural fibre skins, sandwich element

Procedia PDF Downloads 206
4782 An Empirical Investigation of Factors Influencing Construction Project Selection Processes within the Nigeria Public Sector

Authors: Emmanuel U. Unuafe, Oyegoke T. Bukoye, Sandhya Sastry, Yanqing Duan

Abstract:

Globally, there is increasing interest in project management due to a shortage in infrastructure services supply capability. Hence, it is of utmost importance that organisations understand that choosing a particular project over another is an opportunity cost – tying up the organisations resources. In order to devise constructive ways to bring direction, structure, and oversight to the process of project selection has led to the development of tools and techniques by researchers and practitioners. However, despite the development of various frameworks to assist in the appraisal and selection of government projects, failures are still being recorded with government projects. In developing countries, where frameworks are rarely used, the problems are compounded. To improve the situation, this study will investigate the current practice of construction project selection processes within the Nigeria public sector in order to inform theories of decision making from the perspective of developing nations and project management practice. Unlike other research around construction projects in Nigeria this research concentrate on factors influencing the selection process within the Nigeria public sector, which has received limited study. The authors report the findings of semi-structured interviews of top management in the Nigerian public sector and draw conclusions in terms of decision making extant theory and current practice. Preliminary results from the data analysis show that groups make project selection decisions and this forces sub-optimal decisions due to pressure on time, clashes of interest, lack of standardised framework for selecting projects, lack of accountability and poor leadership. Consequently, because decision maker is usually drawn from different fields, religious beliefs, ethnic group and with different languages. The choice of a project by an individual will be greatly influence by experience, political precedence than by realistic investigation as well as his understanding of the desired outcome of the project, in other words, the individual’s ideology and their level of fairness.

Keywords: factors influencing project selection, public sector construction project selection, projects portfolio selection, strategic decision-making

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4781 Optimization Model for Support Decision for Maximizing Production of Mixed Fresh Fruit Farms

Authors: Andrés I. Ávila, Patricia Aros, César San Martín, Elizabeth Kehr, Yovana Leal

Abstract:

Planning models for fresh products is a very useful tool for improving the net profits. To get an efficient supply chain model, several functions should be considered to get a complete simulation of several operational units. We consider a linear programming model to help farmers to decide if it is convenient to choose what area should be planted for three kinds of export fruits considering their future investment. We consider area, investment, water, productivity minimal unit, and harvest restrictions to develop a monthly based model to compute the average income in five years. Also, conditions on the field as area, water availability, and initial investment are required. Using the Chilean costs and dollar-peso exchange rate, we can simulate several scenarios to understand the possible risks associated to this market. Also, this tool help to support decisions for government and individual farmers.

Keywords: mixed integer problem, fresh fruit production, support decision model, agricultural and biosystems engineering

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4780 Probability Fuzzy Aggregation Operators in Vehicle Routing Problem

Authors: Anna Sikharulidze, Gia Sirbiladze

Abstract:

For the evaluation of unreliability levels of movement on the closed routes in the vehicle routing problem, the fuzzy operators family is constructed. The interactions between routing factors in extreme conditions on the roads are considered. A multi-criteria decision-making model (MCDM) is constructed. Constructed aggregations are based on the Choquet integral and the associated probability class of a fuzzy measure. Propositions on the correctness of the extension are proved. Connections between the operators and the compositions of dual triangular norms are described. The conjugate connections between the constructed operators are shown. Operators reflect interactions among all the combinations of the factors in the fuzzy MCDM process. Several variants of constructed operators are used in the decision-making problem regarding the assessment of unreliability and possibility levels of movement on closed routes.

Keywords: vehicle routing problem, associated probabilities of a fuzzy measure, choquet integral, fuzzy aggregation operator

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4779 Tensile and Direct Shear Responses of Basalt-Fibre Reinforced Composite Using Alkali Activate Binder

Authors: S. Candamano, A. Iorfida, L. Pagnotta, F. Crea

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Basalt fabric reinforced cementitious composites (FRCM) have attracted great attention because they result in being effective in structural strengthening and eco-efficient. In this study, authors investigate their mechanical behavior when an alkali-activated binder, with tuned properties and containing high amounts of industrial by-products, such as ground granulated blast furnace slag, is used. Reinforcement is made up of a balanced, coated bidirectional fabric made out of basalt fibres and stainless steel micro-wire, with a mesh size of 8x8 mm and an equivalent design thickness equal to 0.064 mm. Mortars mixes have been prepared by maintaining constant the water/(reactive powders) and sand/(reactive powders) ratios at 0.53 and 2.7 respectively. Tensile tests were carried out on composite specimens of nominal dimensions equal to 500 mm x 50 mm x 10 mm, with 6 embedded rovings in the loading direction. Direct shear tests (DST), aimed to the stress-transfer mechanism and failure modes of basalt-FRCM composites, were carried out on brickwork substrate using an externally bonded basalt-FRCM composite strip 10 mm thick, 50 mm wide and a bonded length of 300 mm. Mortars exhibit, after 28 days of curing, a compressive strength of 32 MPa and a flexural strength of 5.5 MPa. Main hydration product is a poorly crystalline CASH gel. The constitutive behavior of the composite has been identified by means of direct tensile tests, with response curves showing a tri-linear behavior. The first linear phase represents the uncracked (I) stage, the second (II) is identified by crack development and the third (III) corresponds to cracked stage, completely developed up to failure. All specimens exhibit a crack pattern throughout the gauge length and failure occurred as a result of sequential tensile failure of the fibre bundles, after reaching the ultimate tensile strength. The behavior is mainly governed by cracks development (II) and widening (III) up to failure. The main average values related to the stages are σI= 173 MPa and εI= 0.026% that are the stress and strain of the transition point between stages I and II, corresponding to the first mortar cracking; σu = 456 MPa and εu= 2.20% that are the ultimate tensile strength and strain, respectively. The tensile modulus of elasticity in stage III is EIII= 41 GPa. All single-lap shear test specimens failed due to composite debonding. It occurred at the internal fabric-to-matrix interface, and it was the result of fracture of the matrix between the fibre bundles. For all specimens, transversal cracks were visible on the external surface of the composite and involved only the external matrix layer. This cracking appears when the interfacial shear stresses increase and slippage of the fabric at the internal matrix layer interface occurs. Since the external matrix layer is bonded to the reinforcement fabric, it translates with the slipped fabric. Average peak load around 945 N, peak stress around 308 MPa, and global slip around 6 mm were measured. The preliminary test results allow affirming that Alkali Activated Binders can be considered a potentially valid alternative to traditional mortars in designing FRCM composites.

Keywords: alkali activated binders, basalt-FRCM composites, direct shear tests, structural strengthening

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4778 The Importance of Effectively Communicating Science and Economics to the Public (Layman)

Authors: Puran Prasad Adhikari

Abstract:

Considering the fact that when we are able to communicate science and economics effectively to broader nonprofessional audiences, it promotes a great understanding of its wider relevance to society and encourages more informed and confident decision-making at all levels, from the government to communities to individuals. The study has been conducted. This study is aimed to examine the understanding of the general public of economics and the basic sciences functioning in our surroundings in our day-to-day life. Data was gathered through historical documents related to science communication and through interviews with the public. The statistical result shows that there is a great lack of knowledge in the general public about the basic sciences and how economics impacts their life daily. The difficulties faced by the public include the view that these things can only be understood by professionals and it is beyond their capacity to grasp these concepts, the use of technical words and jargon by the professionals, and the lack of the medium to understand even if they want to learn it. The result further indicates that the lack of this basic knowledge also leads to bad decision-making, which causes frustration and anxiety. The result shows the great correlation between the confidence level of a person and the knowledge of basic science and economics. The factor behind this was the right decision-making capacity of the individual, which boosts the happy hormones of the individual. So indirectly, we found the correlation between mental health and the understanding of science and economics. The public wants to have a basic understanding and concepts of these topics, but they complain that there is no effective medium through which they can gain the understanding; the medium which is available is full of jargon and technical terms directed to professional and highly educated which they consider is beyond their reach. So, communicating the basic concepts to the general public is of great importance in the 21st century for the overall progress of society. The professional one can make this possible by considering the level of public understanding and making the communication and the programs comprehensible to the layman. Various means can be used to make this successful and effective, e.g., cartoon guide books, Q&A with the layman, animations use, and daily life examples. This study’s implication will help educators of high-level institutions and policymakers improve general public [layman] access to comprehensible knowledge.

Keywords: layman, comprehensible, decision making, frustration, confidence

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4777 Credit Risk Assessment Using Rule Based Classifiers: A Comparative Study

Authors: Salima Smiti, Ines Gasmi, Makram Soui

Abstract:

Credit risk is the most important issue for financial institutions. Its assessment becomes an important task used to predict defaulter customers and classify customers as good or bad payers. To this objective, numerous techniques have been applied for credit risk assessment. However, to our knowledge, several evaluation techniques are black-box models such as neural networks, SVM, etc. They generate applicants’ classes without any explanation. In this paper, we propose to assess credit risk using rules classification method. Our output is a set of rules which describe and explain the decision. To this end, we will compare seven classification algorithms (JRip, Decision Table, OneR, ZeroR, Fuzzy Rule, PART and Genetic programming (GP)) where the goal is to find the best rules satisfying many criteria: accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. The obtained results confirm the efficiency of the GP algorithm for German and Australian datasets compared to other rule-based techniques to predict the credit risk.

Keywords: credit risk assessment, classification algorithms, data mining, rule extraction

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4776 Heart Ailment Prediction Using Machine Learning Methods

Authors: Abhigyan Hedau, Priya Shelke, Riddhi Mirajkar, Shreyash Chaple, Mrunali Gadekar, Himanshu Akula

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The heart is the coordinating centre of the major endocrine glandular structure of the body, which produces hormones that profoundly affect the operations of the body, and diagnosing cardiovascular disease is a difficult but critical task. By extracting knowledge and information about the disease from patient data, data mining is a more practical technique to help doctors detect disorders. We use a variety of machine learning methods here, including logistic regression and support vector classifiers (SVC), K-nearest neighbours Classifiers (KNN), Decision Tree Classifiers, Random Forest classifiers and Gradient Boosting classifiers. These algorithms are applied to patient data containing 13 different factors to build a system that predicts heart disease in less time with more accuracy.

Keywords: logistic regression, support vector classifier, k-nearest neighbour, decision tree, random forest and gradient boosting

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4775 Subjective Probability and the Intertemporal Dimension of Probability to Correct the Misrelation Between Risk and Return of a Financial Asset as Perceived by Investors. Extension of Prospect Theory to Better Describe Risk Aversion

Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

Abstract:

From a theoretical point of view, the relationship between the risk associated with an investment and the expected value are directly proportional, in the sense that the market allows a greater result to those who are willing to take a greater risk. However, empirical evidence proves that this relationship is distorted in the minds of investors and is perceived exactly the opposite. To deepen and understand the discrepancy between the actual actions of the investor and the theoretical predictions, this paper analyzes the essential parameters used for the valuation of financial assets with greater attention to two elements: probability and the passage of time. Although these may seem at first glance to be two distinct elements, they are closely related. In particular, the error in the theoretical description of the relationship between risk and return lies in the failure to consider the impatience that is generated in the decision-maker when events that have not yet happened occur in the decision-making context. In this context, probability loses its objective meaning and in relation to the psychological aspects of the investor, it can only be understood as the degree of confidence that the investor has in the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event. Moreover, the concept of objective probability does not consider the inter-temporality that characterizes financial activities and does not consider the condition of limited cognitive capacity of the decision maker. Cognitive psychology has made it possible to understand that the mind acts with a compromise between quality and effort when faced with very complex choices. To evaluate an event that has not yet happened, it is necessary to imagine that it happens in your head. This projection into the future requires a cognitive effort and is what differentiates choices under conditions of risk and choices under conditions of uncertainty. In fact, since the receipt of the outcome in choices under risk conditions is imminent, the mechanism of self-projection into the future is not necessary to imagine the consequence of the choice and the decision makers dwell on the objective analysis of possibilities. Financial activities, on the other hand, develop over time and the objective probability is too static to consider the anticipatory emotions that the self-projection mechanism generates in the investor. Assuming that uncertainty is inherent in valuations of events that have not yet occurred, the focus must shift from risk management to uncertainty management. Only in this way the intertemporal dimension of the decision-making environment and the haste generated by the financial market can be cautioned and considered. The work considers an extension of the prospectus theory with the temporal component with the aim of providing a description of the attitude towards risk with respect to the passage of time.

Keywords: impatience, risk aversion, subjective probability, uncertainty

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4774 A Hybrid Multi-Criteria Hotel Recommender System Using Explicit and Implicit Feedbacks

Authors: Ashkan Ebadi, Adam Krzyzak

Abstract:

Recommender systems, also known as recommender engines, have become an important research area and are now being applied in various fields. In addition, the techniques behind the recommender systems have been improved over the time. In general, such systems help users to find their required products or services (e.g. books, music) through analyzing and aggregating other users’ activities and behavior, mainly in form of reviews, and making the best recommendations. The recommendations can facilitate user’s decision making process. Despite the wide literature on the topic, using multiple data sources of different types as the input has not been widely studied. Recommender systems can benefit from the high availability of digital data to collect the input data of different types which implicitly or explicitly help the system to improve its accuracy. Moreover, most of the existing research in this area is based on single rating measures in which a single rating is used to link users to items. This paper proposes a highly accurate hotel recommender system, implemented in various layers. Using multi-aspect rating system and benefitting from large-scale data of different types, the recommender system suggests hotels that are personalized and tailored for the given user. The system employs natural language processing and topic modelling techniques to assess the sentiment of the users’ reviews and extract implicit features. The entire recommender engine contains multiple sub-systems, namely users clustering, matrix factorization module, and hybrid recommender system. Each sub-system contributes to the final composite set of recommendations through covering a specific aspect of the problem. The accuracy of the proposed recommender system has been tested intensively where the results confirm the high performance of the system.

Keywords: tourism, hotel recommender system, hybrid, implicit features

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4773 Ecosystem Services and Human Well-Being: Case Study of Tiriya Village, Bastar India

Authors: S. Vaibhav Kant Sahu, Surabhi Bipin Seth

Abstract:

Human well-being has multiple constituents including the basic material for a good life, freedom and choice, health, good social relations, and security. Poverty is also multidimensional and has been defined as the pronounced deprivation of well-being. Dhurwa tribe of Bastar (India) have symbiotic relation with nature, it provisions ecosystem service such as food, fuel and fiber; regulating services such as climate regulation and non-material benefits such as spiritual or aesthetic benefits and they are managing their forest from ages. The demand for ecosystem services is now so great that trade-off among services become rule. Aim of study to explore evidences for linkages between ecosystem services and well-being of indigenous community, how much it helps them in poverty reduction and interaction between them. Objective of study was to find drivers of change and evidence concerning link between ecosystem, human development and sustainability, evidence in decision making does it opt for multi sectoral objectives. Which means human well-being as the central focus for assessment, while recognizing that biodiversity and ecosystems also have intrinsic value. Ecosystem changes that may have little impact on human well-being over days or weeks may have pronounced impacts over years or decades; so assessments needed to be conducted at spatial and temporal scales under social, political, economic scales to have high-resolution data. Researcher used framework developed by Millennium ecosystem assessment; since human action now directly or unknowingly virtually alter ecosystem. Researcher used ethnography study to get primary qualitative data, secondary data collected from panchayat office. The responses were transcribed and translated into English, as interview held in Hindi and local indigenous language. Focus group discussion were held with group of 10 women at Tiriya village. Researcher concluded with well-being is not just gap between ecosystem service supply but also increases vulnerability. Decision can have consequences external to the decision framework these consequences are called externalities because they are not part of the decision-making calculus.

Keywords: Bastar, Dhurwa tribe, ecosystem services, millennium ecosystem assessment, sustainability

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4772 Theoretical Analysis of Photoassisted Field Emission near the Metal Surface Using Transfer Hamiltonian Method

Authors: Rosangliana Chawngthu, Ramkumar K. Thapa

Abstract:

A model calculation of photoassisted field emission current (PFEC) by using transfer Hamiltonian method will be present here. When the photon energy is incident on the surface of the metals, such that the energy of a photon is usually less than the work function of the metal under investigation. The incident radiation photo excites the electrons to a final state which lies below the vacuum level; the electrons are confined within the metal surface. A strong static electric field is then applied to the surface of the metal which causes the photoexcited electrons to tunnel through the surface potential barrier into the vacuum region and constitutes the considerable current called photoassisted field emission current. The incident radiation is usually a laser beam, causes the transition of electrons from the initial state to the final state and the matrix element for this transition will be written. For the calculation of PFEC, transfer Hamiltonian method is used. The initial state wavefunction is calculated by using Kronig-Penney potential model. The effect of the matrix element will also be studied. An appropriate dielectric model for the surface region of the metal will be used for the evaluation of vector potential. FORTRAN programme is used for the calculation of PFEC. The results will be checked with experimental data and the theoretical results.

Keywords: photoassisted field emission, transfer Hamiltonian, vector potential, wavefunction

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4771 Epistemic Emotions during Cognitive Conflict: Associations with Metacognitive Feelings in High Conflict Scenarios

Authors: Katerina Nerantzaki, Panayiota Metallidou, Anastasia Efklides

Abstract:

The aim of the study was to investigate: (a) changes in the intensity of various epistemic emotions during cognitive processing in a decision-making task and (b) their associations with metacognitive feelings of difficulty and confidence. One hundred and fifty-two undergraduate university students were asked individually to read in the e-prime environment decision-making scenarios about moral dilemmas concerning self-driving cars, which differed in the level of conflict they produced, and then to make a choice between two options. Further, the participants were asked to rate on a four-point scale four epistemic emotions (surprise, curiosity, confusion, and wonder) and two metacognitive feelings (feeling of difficulty and feeling of confidence) after making their choice in each scenario. Changes in cognitive processing due to the level of conflict affected differently the intensity of the specific epistemic emotions. Further, there were interrelations of epistemic emotions with metacognitive feelings.

Keywords: confusion, curiosity, epistemic emotions, metacognitive experiences, surprise

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4770 Valorization of Plastic and Cork Wastes in Design of Composite Materials

Authors: Svetlana Petlitckaia, Toussaint Barboni, Paul-Antoine Santoni

Abstract:

Plastic is a revolutionary material. However, the pollution caused by plastics damages the environment, human health and the economy of different countries. It is important to find new ways to recycle and reuse plastic material. The use of waste materials as filler and as a matrix for composite materials is receiving increasing attention as an approach to increasing the economic value of streams. In this study, a new composite material based on high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and polypropylene (PP) wastes from bottle caps and cork powder from unused cork (virgin cork), which has a high capacity for thermal insulation, was developed. The composites were prepared with virgin and modified cork. The composite materials were obtained through twin-screw extrusion and injection molding. The composites were produced with proportions of 0 %, 5 %, 10 %, 15 %, and 20 % of cork powder in a polymer matrix with and without coupling agent and flame retardant. These composites were investigated in terms of mechanical, structural and thermal properties. The effect of cork fraction, particle size and the use of flame retardant on the properties of composites were investigated. The properties of samples elaborated with the polymer and the cork were compared to them with the coupling agent and commercial flame retardant. It was observed that the morphology of HDPE/cork and PP/cork composites revealed good distribution and dispersion of cork particles without agglomeration. The results showed that the addition of cork powder in the polymer matrix reduced the density of the composites. However, the incorporation of natural additives doesn’t have a significant effect on water adsorption. Regarding the mechanical properties, the value of tensile strength decreases with the addition of cork powder, ranging from 30 MPa to 19 MPa for PP composites and from 19 MPa to 17 MPa for HDPE composites. The value of thermal conductivity of composites HDPE/cork and PP/ cork is about 0.230 W/mK and 0.170 W/mK, respectively. Evaluation of the flammability of the composites was performed using a cone calorimeter. The results of thermal analysis and fire tests show that it is important to add flame retardants to improve fire resistance. The samples elaborated with the coupling agent and flame retardant have better mechanical properties and fire resistance. The feasibility of the composites based on cork and PP and HDPE wastes opens new ways of valorizing plastic waste and virgin cork. The formulation of composite materials must be optimized.

Keywords: composite materials, cork and polymer wastes, flammability, modificated cork

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4769 Mixed Matrix Membranes Based on [M₂(DOBDC)] (M = Mg, Co, Ni) and Polydimethylsiloxane for CO₂/N₂ Separation

Authors: Hyunuk Kim, Yang No Yun, Muhammad Sohail, Jong-Ho Moon, Young Cheol Park

Abstract:

Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs), which are emerging absorbents assembled from metal ions and organic ligands, have attracted attention for their permanent porosity and design of tunable pore size. These microporous materials showed interesting properties for CO₂ storage and separation. In particular, MOFs with high surface area and open metal sites showed the remarkable adsorption capacity and selectivity for CO₂. [Mg₂ (DOBDC)] (DOBDC = 2,5-dioxidobenzene-1,4-dicarboxylate) (MOF-74 or CPO-27) is a well-known absorbent showing an exceptionally high CO₂ sorption capacity at low partial pressure and room temperature. In this work, we synthesized [M₂(DOBDC)(DMF)₂] (M = Mg, Co, Ni) and determined their single-crystal structures by X-ray crystallography. The removal of coordinated guest molecules generates Lewis acidic sites and showed high CO₂ adsorption affinity. Both CO₂ adsorption capacity and surface area are much higher than reported values in literature. To fabricate MMMs, microcrystalline [M₂ (DOBDC)(DMF)₂] was synthesized by microwave reaction and dispersed in PDMS solution. The MMMs with a various amount of [M₂ (DOBDC)(DMF) ₂] in PDMS were fabricated by a solution casting method. [M₂ (DOBDC)(DMF)₂]@PDMS membrane showed higher CO2 permeability and CO₂/N₂ selectivity than those of PDMS. Therefore, we believe that MMMs combining polymer and MOFs provide new materials for CO₂ separation technology.

Keywords: metal-organic frameworks, mixed matrix membrane, CO2/N2 separation, polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS)

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4768 Customer Data Analysis Model Using Business Intelligence Tools in Telecommunication Companies

Authors: Monica Lia

Abstract:

This article presents a customer data analysis model using business intelligence tools for data modelling, transforming, data visualization and dynamic reports building. Economic organizational customer’s analysis is made based on the information from the transactional systems of the organization. The paper presents how to develop the data model starting for the data that companies have inside their own operational systems. The owned data can be transformed into useful information about customers using business intelligence tool. For a mature market, knowing the information inside the data and making forecast for strategic decision become more important. Business Intelligence tools are used in business organization as support for decision-making.

Keywords: customer analysis, business intelligence, data warehouse, data mining, decisions, self-service reports, interactive visual analysis, and dynamic dashboards, use cases diagram, process modelling, logical data model, data mart, ETL, star schema, OLAP, data universes

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4767 Significance of Life Values in Relationship: A Detailed Analysis of Teenage Population

Authors: Preeti Nakhat

Abstract:

Background: Values are essential part of one's life. They are inculcated since the early years of life and shape the personality of the individual. They play a tremendous role in decision making. Teenagers are seen perplexed about the values of their life. The challenge faced by majority of the teenage population in choosing between a positive and negative value is high. The values they adopt remain throughout their life and in every decision, hence it is a crucial topic of research. Research Methodology: This research aimed at finding out the value conflict of teenagers in relations. Hypothesis of the study are: H₀- There is no significant association between the life values and value conflict of higher secondary students; H₁– There is a significant association between the life values and value conflict of higher secondary students. For the same, the standardized tool, value conflict scale by R. L. Bhardwaj has been used. The tool consists 24 questions of different life situations with multiple choice options. Findings: There is 96% variation in value conflict due to evasion vs. fortitude, dependence vs. self-reliance, selfishness vs. probity, hate vs. love, fear vs. assertion and pragmatism vs. idealism life values. There is a positive association between all the life values and value conflict of higher secondary school students. Percentages of association are: 0.17% between value conflict and evasion vs. fortitude value, 0.16% between value conflict and dependence vs. self-reliance value, 0.17% between value conflict and selfishness vs. probity value, 0.16% between value conflict and hate vs. love value, 0.17% between value conflict and fear vs. assertion, 0.17% between value conflict and pragmatism vs. idealism value. Discussions: The dilemma faced by the students regarding value conflict is high. Bewilderment of being honest or lying, of loving or hating family and friends, being pragmatic or idealistic in life decision, being selfish or selfless is seen among the students. It is the challenge for the future. Teaching of values with a practical aspect should be added in the school curriculum.

Keywords: dilemma, conflict, school, values

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4766 Therapeutic Evaluation of Bacopa Monnieri Extract on Liver Fibrosis in Rats

Authors: Yu Wen Wang, Shyh Ming Kuo, Hsia Ying Cheng, Yu Chiuan Wu

Abstract:

Liver fibrosis is caused by the activation of hepatic stellate cells in the liver to secrete excessive and deposition of extracellular matrix. In recent years, many treatment strategies have been developed to reduce the activation of hepatic stellate cells and therefore to increase the decomposition of extracellular matrix. Bacopa monnieri, an herbaceous plant of the scrophulariaceae, containing saponins and glycosides, which with antioxidant, anti-inflammation, pain relief and free radical scavenging characteristics. This study was to evaluate the inhibition of hepatic stellate cell activity by Bacopa monnieri extract and its therapeutic potential in treating thioacetamide-induced liver fibrosis in rats. The results showed that the IC50 of Bacopa monnieri extract was 0.39 mg/mL. Bacopa monnieri extract could effectively reduce H2O2-induced hepatic stellate cells inflammation. In the TAA-induced liver fibrosis animal studies, albumin secretion recovered to normal level after treated with Bacopa monnieri extract for 2-w, and fibrosis related proteins, α-SMA and TGF-1levels decreased indicating the extract exerted therapeutic effect on the liver fibrosis. However, inflammatory factors TNF- obviously decreased after 4-w treatment. In summary, we could successfully extract the main component-Bacopaside I from the plant and acquired a potential therapy using this component in treating TAA-induced liver fibrosis in rat.

Keywords: anti-inflammatory, Bacopa monnieri, fibrosis, hepatic stellate cells, water extract

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4765 The Location Problem of Electric Vehicle Charging Stations: A Case Study of Istanbul

Authors: Müjde Erol Genevois, Hatice Kocaman

Abstract:

Growing concerns about the increasing consumption of fossil energy and the improved recognition of environmental protection require sustainable road transportation technology. Electric vehicles (EVs) can contribute to improve environmental sustainability and to solve the energy problem with the right infrastructure. The problem of where to locate electric vehicle charging station can be grouped as decision-making problems because of including many criteria and alternatives that have to be considered simultaneously. The purpose of this paper is to present an integrated AHP and TOPSIS model to rank the optimal sites of EVs charging station in Istanbul, Turkey. Ten different candidate points and three decision criteria are identified. The performances of each candidate points with respect to criteria are obtained according to AHP calculations. These performances are used as an input for TOPSIS method to rank the candidate points. It is obtained accurate and robust results by integrating AHP and TOPSIS methods.

Keywords: electric vehicle charging station (EVCS), AHP, TOPSIS, location selection

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4764 Research on Pilot Sequence Design Method of Multiple Input Multiple Output Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing System Based on High Power Joint Criterion

Authors: Linyu Wang, Jiahui Ma, Jianhong Xiang, Hanyu Jiang

Abstract:

For the pilot design of the sparse channel estimation model in Multiple Input Multiple Output Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (MIMO-OFDM) systems, the observation matrix constructed according to the matrix cross-correlation criterion, total correlation criterion and other optimization criteria are not optimal, resulting in inaccurate channel estimation and high bit error rate at the receiver. This paper proposes a pilot design method combining high-power sum and high-power variance criteria, which can more accurately estimate the channel. First, the pilot insertion position is designed according to the high-power variance criterion under the condition of equal power. Then, according to the high power sum criterion, the pilot power allocation is converted into a cone programming problem, and the power allocation is carried out. Finally, the optimal pilot is determined by calculating the weighted sum of the high power sum and the high power variance. Compared with the traditional pilot frequency, under the same conditions, the constructed MIMO-OFDM system uses the optimal pilot frequency for channel estimation, and the communication bit error rate performance obtains a gain of 6~7dB.

Keywords: MIMO-OFDM, pilot optimization, compressed sensing, channel estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 142