Search results for: causality analysis
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 27167

Search results for: causality analysis

25907 Uncertainty and Optimization Analysis Using PETREL RE

Authors: Ankur Sachan

Abstract:

The ability to make quick yet intelligent and value-added decisions to develop new fields has always been of great significance. In situations where the capital expenses and subsurface risk are high, carefully analyzing the inherent uncertainties in the reservoir and how they impact the predicted hydrocarbon accumulation and production becomes a daunting task. The problem is compounded in offshore environments, especially in the presence of heavy oils and disconnected sands where the margin for error is small. Uncertainty refers to the degree to which the data set may be in error or stray from the predicted values. To understand and quantify the uncertainties in reservoir model is important when estimating the reserves. Uncertainty parameters can be geophysical, geological, petrophysical etc. Identification of these parameters is necessary to carry out the uncertainty analysis. With so many uncertainties working at different scales, it becomes essential to have a consistent and efficient way of incorporating them into our analysis. Ranking the uncertainties based on their impact on reserves helps to prioritize/ guide future data gathering and uncertainty reduction efforts. Assigning probabilistic ranges to key uncertainties also enables the computation of probabilistic reserves. With this in mind, this paper, with the help the uncertainty and optimization process in petrel RE shows how the most influential uncertainties can be determined efficiently and how much impact so they have on the reservoir model thus helping in determining a cost effective and accurate model of the reservoir.

Keywords: uncertainty, reservoir model, parameters, optimization analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 597
25906 Comparative Analysis of the Computer Methods' Usage for Calculation of Hydrocarbon Reserves in the Baltic Sea

Authors: Pavel Shcherban, Vlad Golovanov

Abstract:

Nowadays, the depletion of hydrocarbon deposits on the land of the Kaliningrad region leads to active geological exploration and development of oil and natural gas reserves in the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea. LLC 'Lukoil-Kaliningradmorneft' implements a comprehensive program for the development of the region's shelf in 2014-2023. Due to heterogeneity of reservoir rocks in various open fields, as well as with ambiguous conclusions on the contours of deposits, additional geological prospecting and refinement of the recoverable oil reserves are carried out. The key element is use of an effective technique of computer stock modeling at the first stage of processing of the received data. The following step uses information for the cluster analysis, which makes it possible to optimize the field development approaches. The article analyzes the effectiveness of various methods for reserves' calculation and computer modelling methods of the offshore hydrocarbon fields. Cluster analysis allows to measure influence of the obtained data on the development of a technical and economic model for mining deposits. The relationship between the accuracy of the calculation of recoverable reserves and the need of modernization of existing mining infrastructure, as well as the optimization of the scheme of opening and development of oil deposits, is observed.

Keywords: cluster analysis, computer modelling of deposits, correction of the feasibility study, offshore hydrocarbon fields

Procedia PDF Downloads 145
25905 Analysis of Steles with Libyan Inscriptions of Grande Kabylia, Algeria

Authors: Samia Ait Ali Yahia

Abstract:

Several steles with Libyan inscriptions were discovered in Grande Kabylia (Algeria), but very few researchers were interested in these inscriptions. Our work is to list, if possible all these steles in order to do a descriptive study of the corpus. The steles analysis will be focused on the iconographic and epigraphic level and on the different forms of Libyan characters in order to highlight the alphabet used by the Grande Kabylia.

Keywords: epigraphy, stele, Libyan inscription, Grande Kabylia

Procedia PDF Downloads 197
25904 Ghost Frequency Noise Reduction through Displacement Deviation Analysis

Authors: Paua Ketan, Bhagate Rajkumar, Adiga Ganesh, M. Kiran

Abstract:

Low gear noise is an important sound quality feature in modern passenger cars. Annoying gear noise from the gearbox is influenced by the gear design, gearbox shaft layout, manufacturing deviations in the components, assembly errors and the mounting arrangement of the complete gearbox. Geometrical deviations in the form of profile and lead errors are often present on the flanks of the inspected gears. Ghost frequencies of a gear are very challenging to identify in standard gear measurement and analysis process due to small wavelengths involved. In this paper, gear whine noise occurring at non-integral multiples of gear mesh frequency of passenger car gearbox is investigated and the root cause is identified using the displacement deviation analysis (DDA) method. DDA method is applied to identify ghost frequency excitations on the flanks of gears arising out of generation grinding. Frequency identified through DDA correlated with the frequency of vibration and noise on the end-of-line machine as well as vehicle level measurements. With the application of DDA method along with standard lead profile measurement, gears with ghost frequency geometry deviations were identified on the production line to eliminate defective parts and thereby eliminate ghost frequency noise from a vehicle. Further, displacement deviation analysis can be used in conjunction with the manufacturing process simulation to arrive at suitable countermeasures for arresting the ghost frequency.

Keywords: displacement deviation analysis, gear whine, ghost frequency, sound quality

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25903 A Critical Discourse Analysis: Embedded Inequalities in the UK Disability Social Security System

Authors: Cara Williams

Abstract:

In 2006, the UK Labour government published a Green Paper introducing Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) as a replacement for Incapacity Benefit (IB), as well as a new Work Capability Assessment (WCA); signalling a controversial political and economic shift in disability welfare policy. In 2016, the Conservative government published Improving Lives: The Work, Health, and Disability Green Paper, as part of their social reform agenda, evidently to address the ‘injustice’ of the ‘disability employment gap’. This paper contextualises ESA in the wider ideology and rhetoric of ‘welfare to work’, ‘dependency’ and ‘responsibility’. Using the British ‘social model of disability’ as a theoretical framework, the study engages in a critical discourse analysis of these two Green Papers. By uncovering the medicalised conceptions embedded in the texts, the analysis has revealed ESA is linked with late capitalisms concern with the ‘disability category’.

Keywords: disability, employment, social security, welfare

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25902 Tamper Resistance Evaluation Tests with Noise Resources

Authors: Masaya Yoshikawa, Toshiya Asai, Ryoma Matsuhisa, Yusuke Nozaki, Kensaku Asahi

Abstract:

Recently, side-channel attacks, which estimate secret keys using side-channel information such as power consumption and compromising emanations of cryptography circuits embedded in hardware, have become a serious problem. In particular, electromagnetic analysis attacks against cryptographic circuits between information processing and electromagnetic fields, which are related to secret keys in cryptography circuits, are the most threatening side-channel attacks. Therefore, it is important to evaluate tamper resistance against electromagnetic analysis attacks for cryptography circuits. The present study performs basic examination of the tamper resistance of cryptography circuits using electromagnetic analysis attacks with noise resources.

Keywords: tamper resistance, cryptographic circuit, hardware security evaluation, noise resources

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25901 Document-level Sentiment Analysis: An Exploratory Case Study of Low-resource Language Urdu

Authors: Ammarah Irum, Muhammad Ali Tahir

Abstract:

Document-level sentiment analysis in Urdu is a challenging Natural Language Processing (NLP) task due to the difficulty of working with lengthy texts in a language with constrained resources. Deep learning models, which are complex neural network architectures, are well-suited to text-based applications in addition to data formats like audio, image, and video. To investigate the potential of deep learning for Urdu sentiment analysis, we implemented five different deep learning models, including Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory (BiLSTM), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Convolutional Neural Network with Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory (CNN-BiLSTM), and Bidirectional Encoder Representation from Transformer (BERT). In this study, we developed a hybrid deep learning model called BiLSTM-Single Layer Multi Filter Convolutional Neural Network (BiLSTM-SLMFCNN) by fusing BiLSTM and CNN architecture. The proposed and baseline techniques are applied on Urdu Customer Support data set and IMDB Urdu movie review data set by using pre-trained Urdu word embedding that are suitable for sentiment analysis at the document level. Results of these techniques are evaluated and our proposed model outperforms all other deep learning techniques for Urdu sentiment analysis. BiLSTM-SLMFCNN outperformed the baseline deep learning models and achieved 83%, 79%, 83% and 94% accuracy on small, medium and large sized IMDB Urdu movie review data set and Urdu Customer Support data set respectively.

Keywords: urdu sentiment analysis, deep learning, natural language processing, opinion mining, low-resource language

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25900 Design and Analysis of a Rear Bumper of an Automobile with a Hybrid Polymer Composite of Oil Palm Empty Fruit Bunch Fiber/Banana Fibres

Authors: S. O. Ologe, U. P. Anaidhuno, Duru C. A.

Abstract:

This research investigated the design and analysis of a rear bumper of an automobile with a hybrid polymer composite of OPEBF/Banana fibre. OPEBF/Banana fibre hybrid polymers composite is of low cost, lightweight, as well as possesses satisfactory mechanical properties. In this research work, hybrid composites have been developed using the hand layup technique based on the percentage combination of OPEBF/Banana fibre at 10:90, 20:80, 30:70, 40:60, 50:50. 60:40, 70:30. 20:80, 90:10, 95:5. The mechanical properties in the context of compressive strength of 65MPa, a flexural strength of 20MPa, and impact strength of 3.25Joule were observed, and the simulation analysis on the induction of 500N load at the factor of safety of 3 was observed to have displayed a good strength suitable for automobile bumper with the advantages of weight reduction.

Keywords: OPEBF, Banana, fibre, hybrid

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25899 Definite Article Errors and Effect of L1 Transfer

Authors: Bimrisha Mali

Abstract:

The present study investigates the type of errors English as a second language (ESL) learners produce using the definite article ‘the’. The participants were provided a questionnaire on the learner's ability test. The questionnaire consists of three cloze tests and two free composition tests. Each participant's response was received in the form of written data. A total of 78 participants from three government schools participated in the study. The participants are high-school students from Rural Assam. Assam is a north-eastern state of India. Their age ranged between 14-15. The medium of instruction and the communication among the students take place in the local language, i.e., Assamese. Pit Corder’s steps for conducting error analysis have been followed for the analysis procedure. Four types of errors were found (1) deletion of the definite article, (2) use of the definite article as modifiers as adjectives, (3) incorrect use of the definite article with singular proper nouns, (4) substitution of the definite article by the indefinite article ‘a’. Classifiers in Assamese that express definiteness is used with nouns, adjectives, and numerals. It is found that native language (L1) transfer plays a pivotal role in the learners’ errors. The analysis reveals the learners' inability to acquire the semantic connotation of definiteness in English due to native language (L1) interference.

Keywords: definite article error, l1 transfer, error analysis, ESL

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25898 Analytical Modelling of Surface Roughness during Compacted Graphite Iron Milling Using Ceramic Inserts

Authors: Ş. Karabulut, A. Güllü, A. Güldaş, R. Gürbüz

Abstract:

This study investigates the effects of the lead angle and chip thickness variation on surface roughness during the machining of compacted graphite iron using ceramic cutting tools under dry cutting conditions. Analytical models were developed for predicting the surface roughness values of the specimens after the face milling process. Experimental data was collected and imported to the artificial neural network model. A multilayer perceptron model was used with the back propagation algorithm employing the input parameters of lead angle, cutting speed and feed rate in connection with chip thickness. Furthermore, analysis of variance was employed to determine the effects of the cutting parameters on surface roughness. Artificial neural network and regression analysis were used to predict surface roughness. The values thus predicted were compared with the collected experimental data, and the corresponding percentage error was computed. Analysis results revealed that the lead angle is the dominant factor affecting surface roughness. Experimental results indicated an improvement in the surface roughness value with decreasing lead angle value from 88° to 45°.

Keywords: CGI, milling, surface roughness, ANN, regression, modeling, analysis

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25897 Surface Roughness Prediction Using Numerical Scheme and Adaptive Control

Authors: Michael K.O. Ayomoh, Khaled A. Abou-El-Hossein., Sameh F.M. Ghobashy

Abstract:

This paper proposes a numerical modelling scheme for surface roughness prediction. The approach is premised on the use of 3D difference analysis method enhanced with the use of feedback control loop where a set of adaptive weights are generated. The surface roughness values utilized in this paper were adapted from [1]. Their experiments were carried out using S55C high carbon steel. A comparison was further carried out between the proposed technique and those utilized in [1]. The experimental design has three cutting parameters namely: depth of cut, feed rate and cutting speed with twenty-seven experimental sample-space. The simulation trials conducted using Matlab software is of two sub-classes namely: prediction of the surface roughness readings for the non-boundary cutting combinations (NBCC) with the aid of the known surface roughness readings of the boundary cutting combinations (BCC). The following simulation involved the use of the predicted outputs from the NBCC to recover the surface roughness readings for the boundary cutting combinations (BCC). The simulation trial for the NBCC attained a state of total stability in the 7th iteration i.e. a point where the actual and desired roughness readings are equal such that error is minimized to zero by using a set of dynamic weights generated in every following simulation trial. A comparative study among the three methods showed that the proposed difference analysis technique with adaptive weight from feedback control, produced a much accurate output as against the abductive and regression analysis techniques presented in this.

Keywords: Difference Analysis, Surface Roughness; Mesh- Analysis, Feedback control, Adaptive weight, Boundary Element

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25896 Analysis on the Building Energy Performance of a Retrofitted Residential Building with RETScreen Expert Software

Authors: Abdulhameed Babatunde Owolabi, Benyoh Emmanuel Kigha Nsafon, Jeung-Soo Huh

Abstract:

Energy efficiency measures for residential buildings in South Korea is a national issue because most of the apartments built in the last decades were constructed without proper energy efficiency measures making the energy performance of old buildings to be very poor when compared with new buildings. However, the adoption of advanced building technologies and regulatory building codes are effective energy efficiency strategies for new construction. There is a need to retrofits the existing building using energy conservation measures (ECMs) equipment’s in order to conserve energy and reduce GHGs emissions. To achieve this, the Institute for Global Climate Change and Energy (IGCCE), Kyungpook National University (KNU), Daegu, South Korea employed RETScreen Expert software to carry out measurement and verification (M&V) analysis on an existing building in Korea by using six years gas consumption data collected from Daesung Energy Co., Ltd in order to determine the building energy performance after the introduction of ECM. Through the M&V, energy efficiency is attained, and the resident doubt was reduced. From the analysis, a total of 657 Giga Joules (GJ) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) was consumed at the rate of 0.34 GJ/day having a peak in the year 2015, which cost the occupant the sum of $10,821.

Keywords: energy efficiency, measurement and verification, performance analysis, RETScreen experts

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25895 End-User Behavior: Analysis of Their Role and Impacts on Energy Savings Achievements

Authors: Margarida Plana

Abstract:

End-users behavior has become one of the main aspects to be solved on energy efficiency projects. Especially on the residential sector, the end-users have a direct impact that affects the achievement of energy saving’s targets. This paper is focused on presenting and quantify the impact of end-users behavior on basis of the analysis of real projects’ data. The analysis study which is the role of buiding’s occupants and how their behavior can change the success of energy efficiency projects how to limit their impact. The results obtained show two main conclusions. The first one is easiest to solve: we need to control and limit the end-users interaction with the equipment operation to be able to reach the targets fixed. The second one: as the plugged equipment are increasing exponentially on the residential sector, big efforts of disseminations are needed in order to explain to citizens the impact of their day by day actions through dissemination campaigns.

Keywords: end-users impacts, energy efficiency, energy savings, impact limitations

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25894 Thermodynamic Modeling of Three Pressure Level Reheat HRSG, Parametric Analysis and Optimization Using PSO

Authors: Mahmoud Nadir, Adel Ghenaiet

Abstract:

The main purpose of this study is the thermodynamic modeling, the parametric analysis, and the optimization of three pressure level reheat HRSG (Heat Recovery Steam Generator) using PSO method (Particle Swarm Optimization). In this paper, a parametric analysis followed by a thermodynamic optimization is presented. The chosen objective function is the specific work of the steam cycle that may be, in the case of combined cycle (CC), a good criterion of thermodynamic performance analysis, contrary to the conventional steam turbines in which the thermal efficiency could be also an important criterion. The technologic constraints such as maximal steam cycle temperature, minimal steam fraction at steam turbine outlet, maximal steam pressure, minimal stack temperature, minimal pinch point, and maximal superheater effectiveness are also considered. The parametric analyses permitted to understand the effect of design parameters and the constraints on steam cycle specific work variation. PSO algorithm was used successfully in HRSG optimization, knowing that the achieved results are in accordance with those of the previous studies in which genetic algorithms were used. Moreover, this method is easy to implement comparing with the other methods.

Keywords: combined cycle, HRSG thermodynamic modeling, optimization, PSO, steam cycle specific work

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25893 Evaluation Metrics for Machine Learning Techniques: A Comprehensive Review and Comparative Analysis of Performance Measurement Approaches

Authors: Seyed-Ali Sadegh-Zadeh, Kaveh Kavianpour, Hamed Atashbar, Elham Heidari, Saeed Shiry Ghidary, Amir M. Hajiyavand

Abstract:

Evaluation metrics play a critical role in assessing the performance of machine learning models. In this review paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of performance measurement approaches for machine learning models. For each category, we discuss the most widely used metrics, including their mathematical formulations and interpretation. Additionally, we provide a comparative analysis of performance measurement approaches for metric combinations. Our review paper aims to provide researchers and practitioners with a better understanding of performance measurement approaches and to aid in the selection of appropriate evaluation metrics for their specific applications.

Keywords: evaluation metrics, performance measurement, supervised learning, unsupervised learning, reinforcement learning, model robustness and stability, comparative analysis

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25892 Iot Device Cost Effective Storage Architecture and Real-Time Data Analysis/Data Privacy Framework

Authors: Femi Elegbeleye, Omobayo Esan, Muienge Mbodila, Patrick Bowe

Abstract:

This paper focused on cost effective storage architecture using fog and cloud data storage gateway and presented the design of the framework for the data privacy model and data analytics framework on a real-time analysis when using machine learning method. The paper began with the system analysis, system architecture and its component design, as well as the overall system operations. The several results obtained from this study on data privacy model shows that when two or more data privacy model is combined we tend to have a more stronger privacy to our data, and when fog storage gateway have several advantages over using the traditional cloud storage, from our result shows fog has reduced latency/delay, low bandwidth consumption, and energy usage when been compare with cloud storage, therefore, fog storage will help to lessen excessive cost. This paper dwelt more on the system descriptions, the researchers focused on the research design and framework design for the data privacy model, data storage, and real-time analytics. This paper also shows the major system components and their framework specification. And lastly, the overall research system architecture was shown, its structure, and its interrelationships.

Keywords: IoT, fog, cloud, data analysis, data privacy

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25891 Asymptotic Analysis of the Viscous Flow through a Pipe and the Derivation of the Darcy-Weisbach Law

Authors: Eduard Marusic-Paloka

Abstract:

The Darcy-Weisbach formula is used to compute the pressure drop of the fluid in the pipe, due to the friction against the wall. Because of its simplicity, the Darcy-Weisbach formula became widely accepted by engineers and is used for laminar as well as the turbulent flows through pipes, once the method to compute the mysterious friction coefficient was derived. Particularly in the second half of the 20th century. Formula is empiric, and our goal is to derive it from the basic conservation law, via rigorous asymptotic analysis. We consider the case of the laminar flow but with significant Reynolds number. In case of the perfectly smooth pipe, the situation is trivial, as the Navier-Stokes system can be solved explicitly via the Poiseuille formula leading to the friction coefficient in the form 64/Re. For the rough pipe, the situation is more complicated and some effects of the roughness appear in the friction coefficient. We start from the Navier-Stokes system in the pipe with periodically corrugated wall and derive an asymptotic expansion for the pressure and for the velocity. We use the homogenization techniques and the boundary layer analysis. The approximation derived by formal analysis is then justified by rigorous error estimate in the norm of the appropriate Sobolev space, using the energy formulation and classical a priori estimates for the Navier-Stokes system. Our method leads to the formula for the friction coefficient. The formula involves resolution of the appropriate boundary layer problems, namely the boundary value problems for the Stokes system in an infinite band, that needs to be done numerically. However, theoretical analysis characterising their nature can be done without solving them.

Keywords: Darcy-Weisbach law, pipe flow, rough boundary, Navier law

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25890 Sensitivity Analysis of Prestressed Post-Tensioned I-Girder and Deck System

Authors: Tahsin A. H. Nishat, Raquib Ahsan

Abstract:

Sensitivity analysis of design parameters of the optimization procedure can become a significant factor while designing any structural system. The objectives of the study are to analyze the sensitivity of deck slab thickness parameter obtained from both the conventional and optimum design methodology of pre-stressed post-tensioned I-girder and deck system and to compare the relative significance of slab thickness. For analysis on conventional method, the values of 14 design parameters obtained by the conventional iterative method of design of a real-life I-girder bridge project have been considered. On the other side for analysis on optimization method, cost optimization of this system has been done using global optimization methodology 'Evolutionary Operation (EVOP)'. The problem, by which optimum values of 14 design parameters have been obtained, contains 14 explicit constraints and 46 implicit constraints. For both types of design parameters, sensitivity analysis has been conducted on deck slab thickness parameter which can become too sensitive for the obtained optimum solution. Deviations of slab thickness on both the upper and lower side of its optimum value have been considered reflecting its realistic possible ranges of variations during construction. In this procedure, the remaining parameters have been kept unchanged. For small deviations from the optimum value, compliance with the explicit and implicit constraints has been examined. Variations in the cost have also been estimated. It is obtained that without violating any constraint deck slab thickness obtained by the conventional method can be increased up to 25 mm whereas slab thickness obtained by cost optimization can be increased only up to 0.3 mm. The obtained result suggests that slab thickness becomes less sensitive in case of conventional method of design. Therefore, for realistic design purpose sensitivity should be conducted for any of the design procedure of girder and deck system.

Keywords: sensitivity analysis, optimum design, evolutionary operations, PC I-girder, deck system

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25889 Air Quality Analysis Using Machine Learning Models Under Python Environment

Authors: Salahaeddine Sbai

Abstract:

Air quality analysis using machine learning models is a method employed to assess and predict air pollution levels. This approach leverages the capabilities of machine learning algorithms to analyze vast amounts of air quality data and extract valuable insights. By training these models on historical air quality data, they can learn patterns and relationships between various factors such as weather conditions, pollutant emissions, and geographical features. The trained models can then be used to predict air quality levels in real-time or forecast future pollution levels. This application of machine learning in air quality analysis enables policymakers, environmental agencies, and the general public to make informed decisions regarding health, environmental impact, and mitigation strategies. By understanding the factors influencing air quality, interventions can be implemented to reduce pollution levels, mitigate health risks, and enhance overall air quality management. Climate change is having significant impacts on Morocco, affecting various aspects of the country's environment, economy, and society. In this study, we use some machine learning models under python environment to predict and analysis air quality change over North of Morocco to evaluate the climate change impact on agriculture.

Keywords: air quality, machine learning models, pollution, pollutant emissions

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25888 Evaluation of Applicability of High Strength Stirrup for Prestressed Concrete Members

Authors: J.-Y. Lee, H.-S. Lim, S.-E. Kim

Abstract:

Recently, the use of high-strength materials is increasing as the construction of large structures and high-rise structures increases. This paper presents an analysis of the shear behavior of prestressed concrete members with various types of materials by simulating a finite element (FE) analysis. The analytical results indicated that the shear strength and shear failure mode were strongly influenced by not only the shear reinforcement ratio but also the yield strength of shear reinforcement and the compressive strength of concrete. Though the yield strength of shear reinforcement increased the shear strength of prestressed concrete members, there was a limit to the increase in strength because of the change of shear failure modes. According to the results of FE analysis on various parameters, the maximum yield strength of the steel stirrup that can be applied to prestressed concrete members was about 860 MPa.

Keywords: prestressed concrete members, high strength reinforcing bars, high strength concrete, shear behavior

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25887 Value Analysis of Islamic Banking and Conventional Banking to Measure Value Co-Creation

Authors: Amna Javed, Hisashi Masuda, Youji Kohda

Abstract:

This study examines the value analysis in Islamic and conventional banking services in Pakistan. Many scholars have focused on co-creation of values in services but mainly economic values not non-economic. As Islamic banking is based on Islamic principles that are more concerned with non-economic values (well-being, partnership, fairness, trust worthy, and justice) than economic values as money in terms of interest. This study is important to know the providers point of view about the co-created values, because, it may be more sustainable and appropriate for today’s unpredictable socioeconomic environment. Data were collected from 4 banks (2 Islamic and 2 conventional banks). Text mining technique is applied for data analysis, and values with 100% occurrences in Islamic banking are chosen. The results reflect that Islamic banking is more centric towards non-economic values than economic values and it promotes team work and partnership concept by applying Islamic spirit and trust worthiness concept.

Keywords: economic values, Islamic banking, non-economic values, value system

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25886 Design Patterns for Emergency Management Processes

Authors: Tomáš Ludík, Jiří Barta, Josef Navrátil

Abstract:

Natural or human made disasters have a significant negative impact on the environment. At the same time there is an extensive effort to support management and decision making in emergency situations by information technologies. Therefore the purpose of the paper is to propose a design patterns applicable in emergency management, enabling better analysis and design of emergency management processes and therefore easier development and deployment of information systems in the field of emergency management. It will be achieved by detailed analysis of existing emergency management legislation, contingency plans, and information systems. The result is a set of design patterns focused at emergency management processes that enable easier design of emergency plans or development of new information system. These results will have a major impact on the development of new information systems as well as to more effective and faster solving of emergencies.

Keywords: analysis and design, Business Process Modelling Notation, contingency plans, design patterns, emergency management

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25885 Adapting Tools for Text Monitoring and for Scenario Analysis Related to the Field of Social Disasters

Authors: Svetlana Cojocaru, Mircea Petic, Inga Titchiev

Abstract:

Humanity faces more and more often with different social disasters, which in turn can generate new accidents and catastrophes. To mitigate their consequences, it is important to obtain early possible signals about the events which are or can occur and to prepare the corresponding scenarios that could be applied. Our research is focused on solving two problems in this domain: identifying signals related that an accident occurred or may occur and mitigation of some consequences of disasters. To solve the first problem, methods of selecting and processing texts from global network Internet are developed. Information in Romanian is of special interest for us. In order to obtain the mentioned tools, we should follow several steps, divided into preparatory stage and processing stage. Throughout the first stage, we manually collected over 724 news articles and classified them into 10 categories of social disasters. It constitutes more than 150 thousand words. Using this information, a controlled vocabulary of more than 300 keywords was elaborated, that will help in the process of classification and identification of the texts related to the field of social disasters. To solve the second problem, the formalism of Petri net has been used. We deal with the problem of inhabitants’ evacuation in useful time. The analysis methods such as reachability or coverability tree and invariants technique to determine dynamic properties of the modeled systems will be used. To perform a case study of properties of extended evacuation system by adding time, the analysis modules of PIPE such as Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets (GSPN) Analysis, Simulation, State Space Analysis, and Invariant Analysis have been used. These modules helped us to obtain the average number of persons situated in the rooms and the other quantitative properties and characteristics related to its dynamics.

Keywords: lexicon of disasters, modelling, Petri nets, text annotation, social disasters

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25884 Discovering Causal Structure from Observations: The Relationships between Technophile Attitude, Users Value and Use Intention of Mobility Management Travel App

Authors: Aliasghar Mehdizadeh Dastjerdi, Francisco Camara Pereira

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The increasing complexity and demand of transport services strains transportation systems especially in urban areas with limited possibilities for building new infrastructure. The solution to this challenge requires changes of travel behavior. One of the proposed means to induce such change is multimodal travel apps. This paper describes a study of the intention to use a real-time multi-modal travel app aimed at motivating travel behavior change in the Greater Copenhagen Region (Denmark) toward promoting sustainable transport options. The proposed app is a multi-faceted smartphone app including both travel information and persuasive strategies such as health and environmental feedback, tailoring travel options, self-monitoring, tunneling users toward green behavior, social networking, nudging and gamification elements. The prospective for mobility management travel apps to stimulate sustainable mobility rests not only on the original and proper employment of the behavior change strategies, but also on explicitly anchoring it on established theoretical constructs from behavioral theories. The theoretical foundation is important because it positively and significantly influences the effectiveness of the system. However, there is a gap in current knowledge regarding the study of mobility-management travel app with support in behavioral theories, which should be explored further. This study addresses this gap by a social cognitive theory‐based examination. However, compare to conventional method in technology adoption research, this study adopts a reverse approach in which the associations between theoretical constructs are explored by Max-Min Hill-Climbing (MMHC) algorithm as a hybrid causal discovery method. A technology-use preference survey was designed to collect data. The survey elicited different groups of variables including (1) three groups of user’s motives for using the app including gain motives (e.g., saving travel time and cost), hedonic motives (e.g., enjoyment) and normative motives (e.g., less travel-related CO2 production), (2) technology-related self-concepts (i.e. technophile attitude) and (3) use Intention of the travel app. The questionnaire items led to the formulation of causal relationships discovery to learn the causal structure of the data. Causal relationships discovery from observational data is a critical challenge and it has applications in different research fields. The estimated causal structure shows that the two constructs of gain motives and technophilia have a causal effect on adoption intention. Likewise, there is a causal relationship from technophilia to both gain and hedonic motives. In line with the findings of the prior studies, it highlights the importance of functional value of the travel app as well as technology self-concept as two important variables for adoption intention. Furthermore, the results indicate the effect of technophile attitude on developing gain and hedonic motives. The causal structure shows hierarchical associations between the three groups of user’s motive. They can be explained by “frustration-regression” principle according to Alderfer's ERG (Existence, Relatedness and Growth) theory of needs meaning that a higher level need remains unfulfilled, a person may regress to lower level needs that appear easier to satisfy. To conclude, this study shows the capability of causal discovery methods to learn the causal structure of theoretical model, and accordingly interpret established associations.

Keywords: travel app, behavior change, persuasive technology, travel information, causality

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25883 Thermal Analysis of Friction Stir Welded Dissimilar Materials with Different Preheating Conditions

Authors: Prashant S. Humnabad

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The objective of this work is to carry out a thermal heat transfer analysis to obtain the time dependent temperature field in welding process friction stir welded dissimilar materials with different preheating temperature. A series of joints were made on four mm thick aluminum and steel plates. The temperature used was 100ºC, 150ºC and 200ºC. The welding operation was performed with different rotational speeds and traverse speed (1000, 1400 and 2000 rmp and 16, 20 and 25 mm/min..). In numerical model, the welded plate was modeled as the weld line is the symmetric line. The work-piece has dimensions of 100x100x4 mm. The obtained result was compared with experimental result, which shows good agreement and within the acceptable limit. The peak temperature at the weld zone increases significantly with respect to increase in process time.

Keywords: FEA, thermal analysis, preheating, friction stir welding

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25882 Multivariate Genome-Wide Association Studies for Identifying Additional Loci for Myopia

Authors: Qiao Fan, Xiaobo Guo, Junxian Zhu, Xiaohu Ding, Ching-Yu Cheng, Tien-Yin Wong, Mingguang He, Heping Zhang, Xueqin Wang

Abstract:

A systematic, simultaneous analysis of multiple phenotypes in genome-wide association studies (GWASs) draws a great attention to integrate the signals from single phenotypes with increased power. However, lacking an interpretable and efficient multivariate GWAS analysis impede the application of such approach. In this study, we propose to decompose the multivariate model into a series of simple univariate models. This transformation illuminates what exactly the individual trait contributes to the significant signals from the multivariate analyses. By employing our approach in the analysis of three myopia-related endophenotypes from the Singapore Malay Eye Study (SIMES), we identify novel candidate loci which were successfully validated in an independent Guangzhou Twin Eye Study (GTES).

Keywords: GWAS multivariate, multiple traits, myopia, association

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25881 Prevalence Of Listeria And Salmonella Contamination In Fda Recalled Foods

Authors: Oluwatofunmi Musa-Ajakaiye, Paul Olorunfemi M.D MPH, John Obafaiye

Abstract:

Introduction: The U.S Food and Drug Administration (FDA) reports the public notices for recalled FDA-regulated products over periods of time. It study reviewed the primary reasons for recalls of products of various types over a period of 7 years. Methods: The study analyzed data provided in the FDA’s archived recalls for the years 2010-2017. It identified the various reasons for product recalls in the categories of foods, beverages, drugs, medical devices, animal and veterinary products, and dietary supplements. Using SPSS version 29, descriptive statistics and chi-square analysis of the data were performed. Results (numbers, percentages, p-values, chi-square): Over the period of analysis, a total of 931 recalls were reported. The most frequent reason for recalls was undeclared products (36.7%). The analysis showed that the most recalled product type in the data set was foods and beverages, representing 591 of all recalled products (63.5%).In addition, it was observed that foods and beverages represent 77.2% of products recalled due to the presence of microorganisms. Also, a sub-group analysis of recall reasons of food and beverages found that the most prevalent reason for such recalls was undeclared products (50.1%) followed by Listeria (17.3%) then Salmonella (13.2%). Conclusion: This analysis shows that foods and beverages have the greatest percentages of total recalls due to the presence of undeclared products listeria contamination and Salmonella contamination. The prevalence of Salmonella and Listeria contamination suggests that there is a high risk of microbial contamination in FDA-approved products and further studies on the effects of such contamination must be conducted to ensure consumer safety.

Keywords: food, beverages, listeria, salmonella, FDA, contamination, microbial

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25880 Non-Linear Static Pushover Analysis of 15 Storied Reinforced Concrete Building Structure with Shear Wall

Authors: Hamid Nikzad, Shinta Yoshitomi

Abstract:

In this paper, nonlinear static pushover analysis is performed on 15 storied RC building structure with a shear wall to evaluate the seismic performance of the building. Section sizes of the members are obtained based on structural optimization method utilizing MATLAB frame optimizer, then the structure is simulated and designed in ETABS program conforming ACI 318-14 design code. The pushover curve has been generated by pushing the top node of the structure to the limited target displacement. Members failure due to the formation of plastic hinges, considering shear wall-frame structure was observed and the result of this study is presented based on current regulation of FEMA356, ASCE7-10, and ACI 318-14 design criteria

Keywords: structural optimization, linear static analysis, ETABS, MATLAB, RC moment frame, RC shear wall structures

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25879 Pushover Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Beam-Column Joint Strengthening with Ultra High Performance Concrete

Authors: Abdulsamee Halahla, Emad Allout

Abstract:

The purpose of this research is to study the behavior of exterior beam-column joints (BCJs) strengthened with ultra-high performance concrete (UHPC), in terms of the shear strength and maximum displacement using pushover analysis at the tip of the beam. A finite element (F.E) analysis was performed to study three main parameters – the level of the axial load in the column (N), the beam shear reinforcement (Av/s)B, and the effect of using UHPC. The normal concrete at the studied joint region was replaced by UHPC. The model was verified by using experimental results taken from the literature. The results showed that the UHPC contributed to the transference of the plastic hinge from the joint to the beam-column interface. In addition, the strength of the UHPC-strengthened joints was enhanced dramatically from 8% to 38% for the joints subjected to 12.8MPa and zero axial loads, respectively. Moreover, the UHPC contributed in improving the maximum deflection. This improvement amounted to 1% and 176% for the joints subjected to zero and 12.8MPa axial load, respectively.

Keywords: ultra high performance concrete, ductility, reinforced concrete joints, finite element modeling, nonlinear behavior; pushover analysis

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25878 Empirical Investigation of Bullwhip Effect with Sensitivity Analysis in Supply Chain

Authors: Shoaib Yousaf

Abstract:

The main purpose of this research is to the empirical investigation of the bullwhip effect under sensitivity analysis in the two-tier supply chain. The simulation modeling technique has been applied in this research as a research methodology to see the sensitivity analysis of the bullwhip effect in the rice industry of Pakistan. The research comprises two case studies that have been chosen as a sample. The results of this research have confirmed that reduction in production delay reduces the bullwhip effect, which conforms to the time compressing paradigm and the significance of the reduction in production delay to lessen demand amplification. The result of this research also indicates that by increasing the value of time to adjust inventory decreases the bullwhip effect. Furthermore, by decreasing the value of alpha increases the damping effect of the exponential smoother, it is not surprising that it also reduces the bullwhip effect. Moreover, by reducing the value of time to work in progress also reduces the bullwhip effect. This research will help practitioners and operation managers to reduces the major costs of their products in three ways. They can reduce their i) inventory levels, ii) better utilize their capacity and iii) improve their forecasting techniques. However, this study is based on two tier supply chain, while in reality the supply chain has got many tiers. Hence, future work will be extended across more than two-tier supply chains.

Keywords: bullwhip effect, rice industry, supply chain dynamics, simulation, sensitivity analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 118