Search results for: prediction equations

Authors: Vasujeet Singh, Pruthiviraj Nemalipuri, Vivek Vitankar, Harish Chandra Das

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For the correct prediction of thermal and hydraulic performance (bed voidage, suspension density, pressure drop, heat transfer, and combustion kinetics), one should incorporate the correct parameters in the computational fluid dynamics simulation of a fluidized bed gasifier. Scarcity of fossil fuels, and to fulfill the energy demand of the increasing population, researchers need to shift their attention to the alternative to fossil fuels. The current research work focuses on hydrodynamics behavior and gasification of sawdust inside a 2D industrial scale FBG using the Eulerian-Eulerian multifluid model. The present numerical model is validated with experimental data. Further, this model extended for the prediction of gasification characteristics of sawdust by incorporating eight heterogeneous moisture release, volatile cracking, tar cracking, tar oxidation, char combustion, CO₂ gasification, steam gasification, methanation reaction, and five homogeneous oxidation of CO, CH₄, H₂, forward and backward water gas shift (WGS) reactions. In the result section, composition of gasification products is analyzed, along with the hydrodynamics of sawdust and sand phase, heat transfer between the gas, sand and sawdust, reaction rates of different homogeneous and heterogeneous reactions is being analyzed along the height of the domain.

Keywords: devolatilization, Eulerian-Eulerian, fluidized bed gasifier, mathematical modelling, sawdust gasification

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Authors: Jemai Rabeb, Benhmidene Ali, Hidouri Khaoula, Chaouachi Bechir

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The diffusion-absorption refrigeration cycle consists of a generator bubble pump, an absorber, an evaporator and a condenser, and usually operates with ammonia/water/ hydrogen or helium as the working fluid. The aim of this paper is to study the stability problem a bubble pump. In fact instability can caused a reduction of bubble pump efficiency. To achieve this goal, we have simulated the behaviour of two-phase flow in a bubble pump by using a drift flow model. Equations of a drift flow model are formulated in the transitional regime, non-adiabatic condition and thermodynamic equilibrium between the liquid and vapour phases. Equations resolution allowed to define void fraction, and liquid and vapour velocities, as well as pressure and mixing enthalpy. Ammonia-water mixing is used as working fluid, where ammonia mass fraction in the inlet is 0.6. Present simulation is conducted out for a heating flux of 2 kW/m² to 5 kW/m² and bubble pump tube length of 1 m and 2.5 mm of inner diameter. Simulation results reveal oscillations of vapour and liquid velocities along time. Oscillations decrease with time and with heat flux. For sufficient time the steady state is established, it is characterised by constant liquid velocity and void fraction values. However, vapour velocity does not have the same behaviour, it increases for steady state too. On the other hand, pressure drop oscillations are studied.

Keywords: bubble pump, drift flow model, instability, simulation

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Authors: Sang-Woo Kim, Young-Seon Lee

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An important concern in metal forming, even at elevated temperatures, is whether a desired deformation can be accomplished without any failure of the material. A detailed understanding of the critical condition for crack initiation provides not only the workability limit of a material but also a guide-line for process design. This paper describes the utilization of ductile fracture criteria in conjunction with the finite element method (FEM) for predicting the onset of fracture in warm metal working processes of magnesium alloy sheets. Critical damage values for various ductile fracture criteria were determined from uniaxial tensile tests and were expressed as the function of strain rate and temperature. In order to find the best criterion for failure prediction, Erichsen cupping tests under isothermal conditions and FE simulations combined with ductile fracture criteria were carried out. Based on the plastic deformation histories obtained from the FE analyses of the Erichsen cupping tests and the critical damage value curves, the initiation time and location of fracture were predicted under a bi-axial tensile condition. The results were compared with experimental results and the best criterion was recommended. In addition, the proposed methodology was used to predict the onset of fracture in non-isothermal deep drawing processes using an irregular shaped blank, and the results were verified experimentally.

Keywords: magnesium, AZ31 alloy, ductile fracture, FEM, sheet forming, Erichsen cupping test

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Authors: N. R. Badurally Adam, S. R. Monebhurrun, M. Z. Dauhoo, A. Khoodaruth

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Transport energy demand is vital for the economic growth of any country. Globalisation and better standard of living plays an important role in transport energy demand. Recently, transport energy demand in Mauritius has increased significantly, thus leading to an abuse of natural resources and thereby contributing to global warming. Forecasting the transport energy demand is therefore important for controlling and managing the demand. In this paper, we develop a model to predict the transport energy demand. The model developed is based on a system of five stochastic differential equations (SDEs) consisting of five endogenous variables: fuel price, population, gross domestic product (GDP), number of vehicles and transport energy demand and three exogenous parameters: crude birth rate, crude death rate and labour force. An interval of seven years is used to avoid any falsification of result since Mauritius is a developing country. Data available for Mauritius from year 2003 up to 2009 are used to obtain the values of design variables by applying genetic algorithm. The model is verified and validated for 2010 to 2012 by substituting the values of coefficients obtained by GA in the model and using particle swarm optimisation (PSO) to predict the values of the exogenous parameters. This model will help to control the transport energy demand in Mauritius which will in turn foster Mauritius towards a pollution-free country and decrease our dependence on fossil fuels.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, modeling, particle swarm optimization, stochastic differential equations, transport energy demand

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Authors: Ali Benali Djouher Leila

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Labiovelarization of velar consonants and labials is a very widespread phenomenon. It is attested in all the major northern Berber dialects. Only the Tuareg is totally unaware of it. But, even within the large Berber-speaking regions of the north, it is very unstable: it may be completely absent in certain dialects (such as the Bougie region in Kabylie), and its extension and frequency can vary appreciably between the dialects which know it. Some dialects of Great Kabylia or the Chleuh domain, for example, "labiovélarize" more than others from the same region. Thus, in Great Kabylia, the adjective "large" will be pronounced: amqqwran with the At Yiraten and amqqran with the At Yanni, a few kilometers away. One of the problems with them is deciding whether it is one or two phonemes. All the criteria used by linguists in this kind of case lead to the conclusion that they are unique phonemes (a phoneme and not a succession of two phonemes, / k + w /, for example). The phonetic and phonological criteria are moreover clearly confirmed by the morphological data since, in the system of verbal alternations, these complex segments are treated as single phonemes: agree, "to draw, to fetch water," akwer, "to fly," have exactly the same morphology as as "jealous," arem" taste," Ames, "dirty" or afeg, "steal" ... verbs with two radical consonants (type aCC). At the level of notation, both scientific and usual, it is, therefore, necessary to represent the labiovélarized by a single letter, possibly accompanied by a diacritic. In fact, actual practices are diverse. - The scientific representation of type does not seem adequate for current use because its realization is easy only on a microcomputer. The Berber Documentation File used a small ° (of n °) above the writing line: k °, g ° ... which has the advantage of being easy to achieve since it is part of general typographical conventions in Latin script and that it is present on a typewriter keyboard. Mouloud Mammeri, then the Berber Study Group of Vincennes (Tisuraf review), and a majority of Kabyle practitioners over the last twenty years have used the succession "consonant +" semi-vowel / w / "(CW) on the same line of writing; for all the reasons explained previously, this practice is not a good solution and should be abandoned, especially as it particularizes Kabyle in the Berber ensemble. In this study, we were interested in two velar consonants, / g / and / k /, labiovellarized: / gw / and the / kw / (we adopted the addition of the "w") for the representation for ease of writing in graphical mode. It is a question of trying to characterize these four consonants in order to see if they have different places of articulation and if they are distinct (if these velars are distinct from their labiovellarized counterpart). This characterization is done using locus equations.

Keywords: berber consonants;, labiovelarization, locus equations, acoustical caracterization, kabylian dialect, algerian language

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Authors: Hammad Majeed, Hanna Knuutila, Magne Hilestad, Hallvard Svendsen

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Formation of aerosols can cause serious complications in industrial exhaust gas CO2 capture processes. SO3 present in the flue gas can cause aerosol formation in an absorption based capture process. Small mist droplets and fog formed can normally not be removed in conventional demisting equipment because their submicron size allows the particles or droplets to follow the gas flow. As a consequence of this aerosol based emissions in the order of grams per Nm3 have been identified from PCCC plants. In absorption processes aerosols are generated by spontaneous condensation or desublimation processes in supersaturated gas phases. Undesired aerosol development may lead to amine emissions many times larger than what would be encountered in a mist free gas phase in PCCC development. It is thus of crucial importance to understand the formation and build-up of these aerosols in order to mitigate the problem.Rigorous modelling of aerosol dynamics leads to a system of partial differential equations. In order to understand mechanics of a particle entering an absorber an implementation of the model is created in Matlab. The model predicts the droplet size, the droplet internal variable profiles and the mass transfer fluxes as function of position in the absorber. The Matlab model is based on a subclass method of weighted residuals for boundary value problems named, orthogonal collocation method. The model comprises a set of mass transfer equations for transferring components and the essential diffusion reaction equations to describe the droplet internal profiles for all relevant constituents. Also included is heat transfer across the interface and inside the droplet. This paper presents results describing the basic simulation tool for the characterization of aerosols formed in CO2 absorption columns and gives examples as to how various entering droplets grow or shrink through an absorber and how their composition changes with respect to time. Below are given some preliminary simulation results for an aerosol droplet composition and temperature profiles. Results: As an example a droplet of initial size of 3 microns, initially containing a 5M MEA, solution is exposed to an atmosphere free of MEA. Composition of the gas phase and temperature is changing with respect to time throughout the absorber.

Keywords: amine solvents, emissions, global climate change, simulation and modelling, aerosol generation

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Authors: Charlene N. T. Mfangnia, Henri E. Z. Tonnang, Berge Tsanou, Jeremy Herren

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Microsporidia MB is a recently discovered symbiont capable of blocking the transmission of Plasmodium from mosquitoes to humans. The symbiont can spread both horizontally and vertically among the mosquito population. This dual transmission gives the symbiont the ability to invade the mosquito population. The replacement of the mosquito population by the population of symbiont-infected mosquitoes then appears as a promising strategy for malaria control. In this context, the present study uses differential equations to model the transmission dynamics of Microsporidia MB in the population of female Anopheles mosquitoes. Long-term propagation scenarios of the symbiont, such as extinction, persistence or total infection, are obtained through the determination of the target and basic reproduction numbers, the equilibria, and the study of their stability. The stability is illustrated numerically, and the contribution of vertical and horizontal transmission in the spread of the symbiont is assessed. Data obtained from laboratory experiments are then used to explain the low prevalence observed in nature. The study also shows that the male death rate, the mating rate and the attractiveness of MB-positive mosquitoes are the factors that most influence the transmission of the symbiont. In addition, the introduction of temperature and the study of bifurcations show the significant influence of the environmental condition in the propagation of Microsporidia MB. This finding proves the necessity of taking into account environmental variables for the potential establishment of the symbiont in a new area.

Keywords: differential equations, stability analysis, malaria, microsporidia MB, horizontal transmission, vertical transmission, numerical illustration

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Authors: Benaliouche Hana, Abdessemed Djamal, Meniai Abdessalem, Lesage Geoffroy, Heran Marc

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This paper presents a dynamic mathematical model of activated sludge which is able to predict the formation and degradation kinetics of SMP (Soluble microbial products) in membrane bioreactor systems. The model is based on a calibrated version of ASM1 with the theory of production and degradation of SMP. The model was calibrated on the experimental data from MBR (Mathematical modeling Membrane bioreactor) pilot plant. Analytical expressions have been developed, describing the concentrations of the main state variables present in the sludge matrix, with the inclusion of only six additional linear differential equations. The objective is to present a new dynamic mathematical model of activated sludge capable of predicting the formation and degradation kinetics of SMP (UAP and BAP) from the submerged membrane bioreactor (BRMI), operating at low organic load (C / N = 3.5), for two sludge retention times (SRT) fixed at 40 days and 60 days, to study their impact on membrane fouling, The modeling study was carried out under the steady-state condition. Analytical expressions were then validated by comparing their results with those obtained by simulations using GPS-X-Hydromantis software. These equations made it possible, by means of modeling approaches (ASM1), to identify the operating and kinetic parameters and help to predict membrane fouling.

Keywords: Activated Sludge Model No. 1 (ASM1), mathematical modeling membrane bioreactor, soluble microbial products, UAP, BAP, Modeling SMP, MBR, heterotrophic biomass

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Authors: Intan Maisarah Abd Rahim, Herlina Abdul Rahim, Rashidah Ghazali

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Diabetes is a medical condition that can lead to various diseases such as stroke, heart disease, blindness and obesity. In clinical practice, the concern of the diabetic patients towards the blood glucose examination is rather alarming as some of the individual describing it as something painful with pinprick and pinch. As for some patient with high level of glucose level, pricking the fingers multiple times a day with the conventional glucose meter for close monitoring can be tiresome, time consuming and painful. With these concerns, several non-invasive techniques were used by researchers in measuring the glucose level in blood, including ultrasonic sensor implementation, multisensory systems, absorbance of transmittance, bio-impedance, voltage intensity, and thermography. This paper is discussing the application of the near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy as a non-invasive method in measuring the glucose level and the implementation of the linear system identification model in predicting the output data for the NIR measurement. In this study, the wavelengths considered are at the 1450 nm and 1950 nm. Both of these wavelengths showed the most reliable information on the glucose presence in blood. Then, the linear Autoregressive Moving Average Exogenous model (ARMAX) model with both un-regularized and regularized methods was implemented in predicting the output result for the NIR measurement in order to investigate the practicality of the linear system in this study. However, the result showed only 50.11% accuracy obtained from the system which is far from the satisfying results that should be obtained.

Keywords: diabetes, glucose level, linear, near-infrared, non-invasive, prediction system

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Authors: Mohamed Abdelwahed

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We propose an optimization algorithm for the geometric control of fluid flow. The used approach is based on the topological sensitivity analysis method. It consists in studying the variation of a cost function with respect to the insertion of a small obstacle in the domain. Some theoretical and numerical results are presented in 2D and 3D.

Keywords: sensitivity analysis, topological gradient, shape optimization, stokes equations

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Authors: Francys Souza, Alberto Ohashi, Dorival Leao

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We present a general solution for finding the ε-optimal controls for non-Markovian stochastic systems as stochastic differential equations driven by Brownian motion, which is a problem recognized as a difficult solution. The contribution appears in the development of mathematical tools to deal with modeling and control of non-Markovian systems, whose applicability in different areas is well known. The methodology used consists to discretize the problem through a random discretization. In this way, we transform an infinite dimensional problem in a finite dimensional, thereafter we use measurable selection arguments, to find a control on an explicit form for the discretized problem. Then, we prove the control found for the discretized problem is a ε-optimal control for the original problem. Our theory provides a concrete description of a rather general class, among the principals, we can highlight financial problems such as portfolio control, hedging, super-hedging, pairs-trading and others. Therefore, our main contribution is the development of a tool to explicitly the ε-optimal control for non-Markovian stochastic systems. The pathwise analysis was made through a random discretization jointly with measurable selection arguments, has provided us with a structure to transform an infinite dimensional problem into a finite dimensional. The theory is applied to stochastic control problems based on path-dependent stochastic differential equations, where both drift and diffusion components are controlled. We are able to explicitly show optimal control with our method.

Keywords: dynamic programming equation, optimal control, stochastic control, stochastic differential equation

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Authors: Jairson Barbosa Rodrigues, Paulo Romero Martins Maciel, Germano Crispim Vasconcelos

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This paper presents an investigation of the performance impacts regarding the variation of five factors (input data size, node number, cores, memory, and disks) when applying a distributed implementation of Naïve Bayes for text classification of a large Corpus on the Spark big data processing framework. Problem: The algorithm's performance depends on multiple factors, and knowing before-hand the effects of each factor becomes especially critical as hardware is priced by time slice in cloud environments. Objectives: To explain the functional relationship between factors and performance and to develop linear predictor models for time and cost. Methods: the solid statistical principles of Design of Experiments (DoE), particularly the randomized two-level fractional factorial design with replications. This research involved 48 real clusters with different hardware arrangements. The metrics were analyzed using linear models for screening, ranking, and measurement of each factor's impact. Results: Our findings include prediction models and show some non-intuitive results about the small influence of cores and the neutrality of memory and disks on total execution time, and the non-significant impact of data input scale on costs, although notably impacts the execution time.

Keywords: big data, design of experiments, distributed machine learning, natural language processing, spark

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Authors: Alireza Dantism

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Presently, describing the function of a protein sequence is one of the most common problems in biology. Usually, this problem can be facilitated by studying the three-dimensional structure of proteins. In the absence of a protein structure, comparative modeling often provides a useful three-dimensional model of the protein that is dependent on at least one known protein structure. Comparative modeling predicts the three-dimensional structure of a given protein sequence (target) mainly based on its alignment with one or more proteins of known structure (templates). Comparative modeling consists of four main steps 1. Similarity between the target sequence and at least one known template structure 2. Alignment of target sequence and template(s) 3. Build a model based on alignment with the selected template(s). 4. Prediction of model errors 5. Optimization of the built model There are many computer programs and web servers that automate the comparative modeling process. One of the most important advantages of these servers is that it makes comparative modeling available to both experts and non-experts, and they can easily do their own modeling without the need for programming knowledge, but some other experts prefer using programming knowledge and do their modeling manually because by doing this they can maximize the accuracy of their modeling. In this study, a web-based tool has been designed to predict the tertiary structure of proteins using PHP and Python programming languages. This tool is called EasyModel. EasyModel can receive, according to the user's inputs, the desired unknown sequence (which we know as the target) in this study, the protein sequence file (template), etc., which also has a percentage of similarity with the primary sequence, and its third structure Predict the unknown sequence and present the results in the form of graphs and constructed protein files.

Keywords: structural bioinformatics, protein tertiary structure prediction, modeling, comparative modeling, modeller

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Authors: Omar Dib, Rita Yaacoub, Luc Eveleigh, Nathalie Locquet, Hussein Dib, Ali Bassal, Christophe B. Y. Cordella

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The potential of front-face fluorescence coupled with chemometric techniques, namely parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) and multiple linear regression (MLR) as a rapid analysis tool to characterize Lebanese virgin olive oils was investigated. Fluorescence fingerprints were acquired directly on 102 Lebanese virgin olive oil samples in the range of 280-540 nm in excitation and 280-700 nm in emission. A PARAFAC model with seven components was considered optimal with a residual of 99.64% and core consistency value of 78.65. The model revealed seven main fluorescence profiles in olive oil and was mainly associated with tocopherols, polyphenols, chlorophyllic compounds and oxidation/hydrolysis products. 23 MLR regression models based on PARAFAC scores were generated, the majority of which showed a good correlation coefficient (R > 0.7 for 12 predicted variables), thus satisfactory prediction performances. Acid values, peroxide values, and Delta K had the models with the highest predictions, with R values of 0.89, 0.84 and 0.81 respectively. Among fatty acids, linoleic and oleic acids were also highly predicted with R values of 0.8 and 0.76, respectively. Factors contributing to the model's construction were related to common fluorophores found in olive oil, mainly chlorophyll, polyphenols, and oxidation products. This study demonstrates the interest of front-face fluorescence as a promising tool for quality control of Lebanese virgin olive oils.

Keywords: front-face fluorescence, Lebanese virgin olive oils, multiple Linear regressions, PARAFAC analysis

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Authors: Muhammad Ahnaf Zahin, Yaw Adu-Gyamfi

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Bus transit is a crucial component of transportation networks, especially in urban areas. Any intelligent transportation system must have accurate real-time information on bus travel times since it minimizes waiting times for passengers at different stations along a route, improves service reliability, and significantly optimizes travel patterns. Bus agencies must enhance the quality of their information service to serve their passengers better and draw in more travelers since people waiting at bus stops are frequently anxious about when the bus will arrive at their starting point and when it will reach their destination. For solving this issue, different models have been developed for predicting bus travel times recently, but most of them are focused on smaller road networks due to their relatively subpar performance in high-density urban areas on a vast network. This paper develops a deep learning-based architecture using a single-step multi-station forecasting approach to predict average bus travel times for numerous routes, stops, and trips on a large-scale network using heterogeneous bus transit data collected from the GTFS database. Over one week, data was gathered from multiple bus routes in Saint Louis, Missouri. In this study, Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural network was followed to predict the mean vehicle travel times for different hours of the day for multiple stations along multiple routes. Historical time steps and prediction horizon were set up to 5 and 1, respectively, which means that five hours of historical average travel time data were used to predict average travel time for the following hour. The spatial and temporal information and the historical average travel times were captured from the dataset for model input parameters. As adjacency matrices for the spatial input parameters, the station distances and sequence numbers were used, and the time of day (hour) was considered for the temporal inputs. Other inputs, including volatility information such as standard deviation and variance of journey durations, were also included in the model to make it more robust. The model's performance was evaluated based on a metric called mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The observed prediction errors for various routes, trips, and stations remained consistent throughout the day. The results showed that the developed model could predict travel times more accurately during peak traffic hours, having a MAPE of around 14%, and performed less accurately during the latter part of the day. In the context of a complicated transportation network in high-density urban areas, the model showed its applicability for real-time travel time prediction of public transportation and ensured the high quality of the predictions generated by the model.

Keywords: gated recurrent unit, mean absolute percentage error, single-step forecasting, travel time prediction.

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Authors: Michael A. Kraus, Navid Pourmoghaddam, Martin Botz, Jens Schneider, Geralt Siebert

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Fragmentation analysis of tempered glass gives insight into the quality of the tempering process and defines a certain degree of safety as well. Different standard such as the European EN 12150-1 or the American ASTM C 1048/CPSC 16 CFR 1201 define a minimum number of fragments required for soda-lime safety glass on the basis of fragmentation test results for classification. This work presents an approach for the glass breakage pattern prediction using a Voronoi Tesselation over Random Fields. The random Voronoi tessellation is trained with and validated against data from several breakage patterns. The fragments in observation areas of 50 mm x 50 mm were used for training and validation. All glass specimen used in this study were commercially available soda-lime glasses at three different thicknesses levels of 4 mm, 8 mm and 12 mm. The results of this work form a Bayesian framework for the training and prediction of breakage patterns of tempered soda-lime glass using a Voronoi Random Field Tesselation. Uncertainties occurring in this process can be well quantified, and several statistical measures of the pattern can be preservation with this method. Within this work it was found, that different Random Fields as basis for the Voronoi Tesselation lead to differently well fitted statistical properties of the glass breakage patterns. As the methodology is derived and kept general, the framework could be also applied to other random tesselations and crack pattern modelling purposes.

Keywords: glass breakage predicition, Voronoi Random Field Tessellation, fragmentation analysis, Bayesian parameter identification

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Authors: Goodness Onwuka, Khaled Abou-El-Hossein

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Borosilicate-crown (BK7) glass has found broad application in the optic and automotive industries and the growing demands for nanometric surface finishes is becoming a necessity in such applications. Thus, it has become paramount to optimize the parameters influencing the surface roughness of this precision lens. The research was carried out on a 4-axes Nanoform 250 precision lathe machine with an ultra-high precision grinding spindle. The experiment varied the machining parameters of feed rate, wheel speed and depth of cut at three levels for different combinations using Box Behnken design of experiment and the resulting surface roughness values were measured using a Taylor Hobson Dimension XL optical profiler. Acoustic emission monitoring technique was applied at a high sampling rate to monitor the machining process while further signal processing and feature extraction methods were implemented to generate the input to a neural network algorithm. This paper highlights the training and development of a back propagation neural network prediction algorithm through careful selection of parameters and the result show a better classification accuracy when compared to a previously developed response surface model with very similar machining parameters. Hence artificial neural network algorithms provide better surface roughness prediction accuracy in the ultra-high precision grinding of BK7 glass.

Keywords: acoustic emission technique, artificial neural network, surface roughness, ultra-high precision grinding

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Authors: Naduni Ranasinghe

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E-learning environments are getting more popular than any other due to the impact of COVID19. Even though e-learning is one of the best solutions for the teaching-learning process in the academic process, it’s not without major challenges. Nowadays, machine learning approaches are utilized in the analysis of how behavioral factors lead to better adoption and how they related to better performance of the students in eLearning environments. During the pandemic, we realized the academic process in the eLearning approach had a major issue, especially for the performance of the students. Therefore, an approach that investigates student behaviors in eLearning environments using a data-intensive machine learning approach is appreciated. A hybrid approach was used to understand how each previously told variables are related to the other. A more quantitative approach was used referred to literature to understand the weights of each factor for adoption and in terms of performance. The data set was collected from previously done research to help the training and testing process in ML. Special attention was made to incorporating different dimensionality of the data to understand the dependency levels of each. Five independent variables out of twelve variables were chosen based on their impact on the dependent variable, and by considering the descriptive statistics, out of three models developed (Random Forest classifier, SVM, and Decision tree classifier), random forest Classifier (Accuracy – 0.8542) gave the highest value for accuracy. Overall, this work met its goals of improving student performance by identifying students who are at-risk and dropout, emphasizing the necessity of using both static and dynamic data.

Keywords: academic performance prediction, e learning, learning analytics, machine learning, predictive model

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Authors: ShuJiang Jiang

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The interaction of turbulence with airfoil is an important noise source in many engineering fields, including helicopters, turbofan, and contra-rotating open rotor engines, where turbulence generated in the wake of upstream blades interacts with the leading edge of downstream blades and produces aerodynamic noise. One approach to study turbulence-airfoil interaction noise is to model the oncoming turbulence as harmonic gusts. A compact noise source produces a dipole-like sound directivity pattern. However, when the acoustic wavelength is much smaller than the airfoil chord length, the airfoil needs to be treated as a non-compact source, and the gust-airfoil interaction becomes more complicated and results in multiple lobes generated in the radiated sound directivity. Capturing the short acoustic wavelength is a challenge for numerical simulations. In this work, simulations are performed for gust-airfoil interaction at different Mach numbers, using a high-fidelity direct Computational AeroAcoustic (CAA) approach based on a spectral/hp element method, verified by a CAA benchmark case. It is found that the squared sound pressure varies approximately as the 5th power of Mach number, which changes slightly with the observer location. This scaling law can give a better sound prediction than the flat-plate theory for thicker airfoils. Besides, another prediction method, based on the flat-plate theory and CAA simulation, has been proposed to give better predictions than the scaling law for thicker airfoils.

Keywords: aeroacoustics, gust-airfoil interaction, CFD, CAA

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Authors: Yuexi Xiong, Jingwu He

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The structural components in an energy facility such as steam turbine machines are operated under high stress and elevated temperature in an endured time period and thus the creep deformation and creep rupture failure are important issues that need to be addressed in the design of such components. There are numerous creep models being used for creep analysis that have both advantages and disadvantages in terms of accuracy and efficiency. The Isochronous Creep Analysis is one of the simplified approaches in which a full-time dependent creep analysis is avoided and instead an elastic-plastic analysis is conducted at each time point. This approach has been established based on the rupture dependent creep equations using the well-known Larson-Miller parameter. In this paper, some fundamental aspects of creep deformation and the rupture dependent creep models are reviewed and the analysis procedures using isochronous creep curves are discussed. Four rupture failure criteria are examined from creep fundamental perspectives including criteria of Stress Damage, Strain Damage, Strain Rate Damage, and Strain Capability. The accuracy of these criteria in predicting creep life is discussed and applications of the creep analysis procedures and failure predictions of simple models will be presented. In addition, a new failure criterion is proposed to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of the existing criteria. Comparisons are made between the existing criteria and the new one using several examples materials. Both strain increase and stress relaxation form a full picture of the creep behaviour of a material under high temperature in an endured time period. It is important to bear this in mind when dealing with creep problems. Accordingly there are two sets of rupture dependent creep equations. While the rupture strength vs LMP equation shows how the rupture time depends on the stress level under load controlled condition, the strain rate vs rupture time equation reflects how the rupture time behaves under strain-controlled condition. Among the four existing failure criteria for rupture life predictions, the Stress Damage and Strain Damage Criteria provide the most conservative and non-conservative predictions, respectively. The Strain Rate and Strain Capability Criteria provide predictions in between that are believed to be more accurate because the strain rate and strain capability are more determined quantities than stress to reflect the creep rupture behaviour. A modified Strain Capability Criterion is proposed making use of the two sets of creep equations and therefore is considered to be more accurate than the original Strain Capability Criterion.

Keywords: creep analysis, high temperature mateials, rapture evalution, steam turbine machines

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Authors: Jatindra Lahkar

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The effect of chemical reaction on laminar mixed convection flow and heat and mass transfer along a vertical unsteady stretching sheet is investigated, in the presence of heat generation/absorption with variable viscosity and viscous dissipation. The governing non-linear partial differential equations are reduced to ordinary differential equations using similarity transformation and solved numerically using the fourth order Runge-Kutta method along with shooting technique. The effects of various flow parameters on the velocity, temperature and concentration distributions are analyzed and presented graphically. Skin-friction coefficient, Nusselt number and Sherwood number are derived at the sheet. It is observed that the influence of chemical reaction, the fluid flow along the sheet accelerate with the increase of chemical reaction parameter, on the other hand, temperature of the fluid increases with increase of chemical reaction parameter but concentration of the fluid reduces with it. The boundary layer decreases on the surface of the sheet for all values of unsteadiness parameter, increasing values of the chemical reaction parameter. The increases in the values of Sc cause the species concentration and its boundary layer thickness to decrease resulting in less induced flow and higher fluid temperatures. This is depicted in the decreases in the velocity and species concentration and increases in the fluid temperature as Sc increases.

Keywords: chemical reaction, heat generation/absorption, magnetic number, unsteadiness, variable viscosity

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Authors: Rafal Bryk, Holger Schmidt, Thomas Mull, Ingo Ganzmann, Oliver Herbst

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Prediction of the two-phase water mixture level during fast depressurization of the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) resulting from an accident scenario is an important issue from the view point of the reactor safety. Since the level swell may influence the behavior of some passive safety systems, it has been recognized that an assumption which at the beginning may be considered as a conservative one, not necessary leads to a conservative result. This paper discusses outcomes obtained during simulations of the water dynamics and heat transfer during sudden depressurization of a vessel filled up to a certain level with liquid water under saturation conditions and with the rest of the vessel occupied by saturated steam. In case of the pressure decrease e.g. due to the main steam line break, the liquid water evaporates abruptly, being a reason thereby, of strong transients in the vessel. These transients and the sudden emergence of void in the region occupied at the beginning by liquid, cause elevation of the two-phase mixture. In this work, several models calculating the water collapse and swell levels are presented and validated against experimental data. Each of the models uses different approach to calculate void fraction. The object-oriented models were developed with the Modelica modelling language and the OpenModelica environment. The models represent the RPV of the Integral Test Facility Karlstein (INKA) – a dedicated test rig for simulation of KERENA – a new Boiling Water Reactor design of Framatome. The models are based on dynamic mass and energy equations. They are divided into several dynamic volumes in each of which, the fluid may be single-phase liquid, steam or a two-phase mixture. The heat transfer between the wall of the vessel and the fluid is taken into account. Additional heat flow rate may be applied to the first volume of the vessel in order to simulate the decay heat of the reactor core in a similar manner as it is simulated at INKA. The comparison of the simulations results against the reference data shows a good agreement.

Keywords: boiling water reactor, level swell, Modelica, RPV depressurization, thermal-hydraulics

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Authors: Benedictus Asriparusa, Lathifah Al Hakimi, Aulia Husada

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A large amount of energy is being wasted by the release of natural gas associated with the oil industry. This release interrupts the environment particularly atmosphere layer condition globally which contributes to global warming impact. This research presents an overview of the methods employed by researchers in PT. Chevron Pacific Indonesia in the Minas area to determine a new prediction method of measuring and reducing gas flaring and its emission. The method emphasizes advanced research which involved analytical studies, numerical studies, modeling, and computer simulations, amongst other techniques. A flaring system is the controlled burning of natural gas in the course of routine oil and gas production operations. This burning occurs at the end of a flare stack or boom. The combustion process releases emissions of greenhouse gases such as NO2, CO2, SO2, etc. This condition will affect the chemical composition of air and environment around the boundary layer mainly during transition season. Transition season in Indonesia is absolutely very difficult condition to predict its pattern caused by the difference of two air mass conditions. This paper research focused on transition season in 2013. A simulation to create the new pattern of the pollutants distribution is needed. This paper has outlines trends in gas flaring modeling and current developments to predict the dominant variables in the pollutants distribution. A Fluent model is used to simulate the distribution of pollutants gas coming out of the stack, whereas WRF model output is used to overcome the limitations of the analysis of meteorological data and atmospheric conditions in the study area. Based on the running model, the most influence factor was wind speed. The goal of the simulation is to predict the new pattern based on the time of fastest wind and slowest wind occurs for pollutants distribution. According to the simulation results, it can be seen that the fastest wind (last of March) moves pollutants in a horizontal direction and the slowest wind (middle of May) moves pollutants vertically. Besides, the design of flare stack in compliance according to EPA Oil and Gas Facility Stack Parameters likely shows pollutants concentration remains on the under threshold NAAQS (National Ambient Air Quality Standards).

Keywords: flare motion, new prediction, pollutants distribution, transition season, WRF model

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Authors: Tatiana G. Smirnova, Stan G. Benjamin

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Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) was a land-surface component in several generations of operational weather prediction models at the National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It was designed for short-range weather predictions with an emphasis on severe weather and originally was intentionally simple to avoid uncertainties from poorly known parameters. Nevertheless, the RUC LSM, when coupled with the hourly-assimilating atmospheric model, can produce a realistic evolution of time-varying soil moisture and temperature, as well as the evolution of snow cover on the ground surface. This result is possible only if the soil/vegetation/snow component of the coupled weather prediction model has sufficient skill to avoid long-term drift. RUC LSM was first implemented in the operational NCEP Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) weather model in 1998 and later in the Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF)-based Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR). Being available to the international WRF community, it was implemented in operational weather models in Austria, New Zealand, and Switzerland. Based on the feedback from the US weather service offices and the international WRF community and also based on our own validation, RUC LSM has matured over the years. Also, a sea-ice module was added to RUC LSM for surface predictions over the Arctic sea-ice. Other modifications include refinements to the snow model and a more accurate specification of albedo, roughness length, and other surface properties. At present, RUC LSM is being tested in the regional application of the Unified Forecast System (UFS). The next generation UFS-based regional Rapid Refresh FV3 Standalone (RRFS) model will replace operational RAP and HRRR at NCEP. Over time, RUC LSM participated in several international model intercomparison projects to verify its skill using observed atmospheric forcing. The ESM-SnowMIP was the last of these experiments focused on the verification of snow models for open and forested regions. The simulations were performed for ten sites located in different climatic zones of the world forced with observed atmospheric conditions. While most of the 26 participating models have more sophisticated snow parameterizations than in RUC, RUC LSM got a high ranking in simulations of both snow water equivalent and surface temperature. However, ESM-SnowMIP experiment also revealed some issues in the RUC snow model, which will be addressed in this paper. One of them is the treatment of grid cells partially covered with snow. RUC snow module computes energy and moisture budgets of snow-covered and snow-free areas separately by aggregating the solutions at the end of each time step. Such treatment elevates the importance of computing in the model snow cover fraction. Improvements to the original simplistic threshold-based approach have been implemented and tested both offline and in the coupled weather model. The detailed description of changes to the snow cover fraction and other modifications to RUC soil and snow parameterizations will be described in this paper.

Keywords: land-surface models, weather prediction, hydrology, boundary-layer processes

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Authors: Ahmad Fahim Nasiry, Shigeo Honma

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We examine two-dimensional oil displacement by water in a petroleum reservoir. The pore fluid is immiscible, and the porous media is homogenous and isotropic in the horizontal direction. Buckley-Leverett theory and a combination of Laplacian and Darcy’s law are used to study the fluid flow through porous media, and the Laplacian that defines the dispersion and diffusion of fluid in the sand using heavy oil is discussed. The reservoir is homogenous in the horizontal direction, as expressed by the partial differential equation. Two main factors which are observed are the water saturation and pressure distribution in the reservoir, and they are evaluated for predicting oil recovery in two dimensions by a physical and mathematical simulation model. We review the numerical simulation that solves difficult partial differential reservoir equations. Based on the numerical simulations, the saturation and pressure equations are calculated by the iterative alternating direction implicit method and the iterative alternating direction explicit method, respectively, according to the finite difference assumption. However, to understand the displacement of oil by water and the amount of water dispersion in the reservoir better, an interpolated contour line of the water distribution of the five-spot pattern, that provides an approximate solution which agrees well with the experimental results, is also presented. Finally, a computer program is developed to calculate the equation for pressure and water saturation and to draw the pressure contour line and water distribution contour line for the reservoir.

Keywords: numerical simulation, immiscible, finite difference, IADI, IDE, waterflooding

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Authors: Sara ElElimy, Samir Moustafa

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Mobile network operators start to face many challenges in the digital era, especially with high demands from customers. Since mobile network operators are considered a source of big data, traditional techniques are not effective with new era of big data, Internet of things (IoT) and 5G; as a result, handling effectively different big datasets becomes a vital task for operators with the continuous growth of data and moving from long term evolution (LTE) to 5G. So, there is an urgent need for effective Big data analytics to predict future demands, traffic, and network performance to full fill the requirements of the fifth generation of mobile network technology. In this paper, we introduce data science techniques using machine learning and deep learning algorithms: the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Bayesian-based curve fitting, and recurrent neural network (RNN) are employed for a data-driven application to mobile network operators. The main framework included in models are identification parameters of each model, estimation, prediction, and final data-driven application of this prediction from business and network performance applications. These models are applied to Telecom Italia Big Data challenge call detail records (CDRs) datasets. The performance of these models is found out using a specific well-known evaluation criteria shows that ARIMA (machine learning-based model) is more accurate as a predictive model in such a dataset than the RNN (deep learning model).

Keywords: big data analytics, machine learning, CDRs, 5G

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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Construction projects are complex and often subject to significant cost overruns due to the multifaceted nature of the activities involved. Accurate cost estimation is crucial for effective budget planning and resource allocation. Traditional methods for predicting overruns often rely on expert judgment or analysis of historical data, which can be time-consuming, subjective, and may fail to consider important factors. However, with the increasing availability of data from construction projects, machine learning techniques can be leveraged to improve the accuracy of overrun predictions. This study applied machine learning algorithms to enhance the prediction of cost overruns in a case study of a construction project. The methodology involved the development and evaluation of two machine learning models: Random Forest and Neural Networks. Random Forest can handle high-dimensional data, capture complex relationships, and provide feature importance estimates. Neural Networks, particularly Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), are capable of automatically learning and modeling complex, non-linear relationships between input features and the target variable. These models can adapt to new data, reduce human bias, and uncover hidden patterns in the dataset. The findings of this study demonstrate that both Random Forest and Neural Networks can significantly improve the accuracy of cost overrun predictions compared to traditional methods. The Random Forest model also identified key cost drivers and risk factors, such as changes in the scope of work and delays in material delivery, which can inform better project risk management. However, the study acknowledges several limitations. First, the findings are based on a single construction project, which may limit the generalizability of the results to other projects or contexts. Second, the dataset, although comprehensive, may not capture all relevant factors influencing cost overruns, such as external economic conditions or political factors. Third, the study focuses primarily on cost overruns, while schedule overruns are not explicitly addressed. Future research should explore the application of machine learning techniques to a broader range of projects, incorporate additional data sources, and investigate the prediction of both cost and schedule overruns simultaneously.

Keywords: cost prediction, machine learning, project management, random forest, neural networks

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Authors: Ankit Sinha, Soham Banerjee, Pratik Chattopadhyay

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Automated product recognition in retail stores is an important real-world application in the domain of Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition. In this paper, we consider the problem of automatically identifying the classes of the products placed on racks in retail stores from an image of the rack and information about the query/product images. We improve upon the existing approaches in terms of effectiveness and memory requirement by developing a two-stage object detection and recognition pipeline comprising of a Faster-RCNN-based object localizer that detects the object regions in the rack image and a ResNet-18-based image encoder that classifies the detected regions into the appropriate classes. Each of the models is fine-tuned using appropriate data sets for better prediction and data augmentation is performed on each query image to prepare an extensive gallery set for fine-tuning the ResNet-18-based product recognition model. This encoder is trained using a triplet loss function following the strategy of online-hard-negative-mining for improved prediction. The proposed models are lightweight and can be connected in an end-to-end manner during deployment to automatically identify each product object placed in a rack image. Extensive experiments using Grozi-32k and GP-180 data sets verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: retail stores, faster-RCNN, object localization, ResNet-18, triplet loss, data augmentation, product recognition

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Authors: Zhaoan Wang

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Research in predictive maintenance modeling has improved in the recent years to predict failures and needed maintenance with high accuracy, saving cost and improving manufacturing efficiency. However, classic prediction models provide little valuable insight towards the most important features contributing to the failure. By analyzing and quantifying feature importance in predictive maintenance models, cost saving can be optimized based on business goals. First, multiple classifiers are evaluated with cross-validation to predict the multi-class of failures. Second, predictive performance with features provided by different feature selection algorithms are further analyzed. Third, features selected by different algorithms are ranked and combined based on their predictive power. Finally, linear explainer SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) is applied to interpret classifier behavior and provide further insight towards the specific roles of features in both local predictions and global model behavior. The results of the experiments suggest that certain features play dominant roles in predictive models while others have significantly less impact on the overall performance. Moreover, for multi-class prediction of machine failures, the most important features vary with type of machine failures. The results may lead to improved productivity and cost saving by prioritizing sensor deployment, data collection, and data processing of more important features over less importance features.

Keywords: automated supply chain, intelligent manufacturing, predictive maintenance machine learning, feature engineering, model interpretation

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Authors: Milica Karadzic, Lidija Jevric, Sanja Podunavac-Kuzmanovic, Strahinja Kovacevic, Anamarija Mandic, Katarina Penov Gasi, Marija Sakac, Aleksandar Okljesa, Andrea Nikolic

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The present paper deals with chromatographic lipophilicity prediction of newly synthesized steroid derivatives. The prediction was achieved using in silico generated molecular descriptors and quantitative structure-retention relationship (QSRR) methodology with the artificial neural networks (ANN) approach. Chromatographic lipophilicity of the investigated compounds was expressed as retention factor value logk. For QSRR modeling, a feedforward back-propagation ANN with gradient descent learning algorithm was applied. Using the novel sum of ranking differences (SRD) method generated ANN models were ranked. The aim was to distinguish the most consistent QSRR model that can be found, and similarity or dissimilarity between the models that could be noticed. In this study, SRD was performed with average values of retention factor value logk as reference values. An excellent correlation between experimentally observed retention factor value logk and values predicted by the ANN was obtained with a correlation coefficient higher than 0.9890. Statistical results show that the established ANN models can be applied for required purpose. This article is based upon work from COST Action (TD1305), supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology).

Keywords: artificial neural networks, liquid chromatography, molecular descriptors, steroids, sum of ranking differences

Procedia PDF Downloads 319