Search results for: pose estimation
1153 Rural Households' Sources of Water and Willingness to Pay for Improved Water Services in South-West, Nigeria
Authors: Alaba M. Dare, Idris A. Ayinde, Adebayo M. Shittu, Sam O. Sam-Wobo
Abstract:
Households' source of water is one of the core development indicators recently gaining pre-eminence in Nigeria. This study examined rural households' sources of water, Willingness to Pay (WTP) and factors influencing mean WTP. A cross-sectional survey which involved the use of questionnaire was used. A dichotomous choice (DC) with follow up was used as elicitation method. A multi-stage random sampling technique was used to select 437 rural households. Descriptive statistics and Tobit model were used for data estimation. The result revealed that about 70% fetched from unimproved water sources. Most (74.4%) respondents showed WTP for improved water sources. Age (p < 0.01), sex (p < 0.01), education (p < 0.01), occupation (p < 0.01), income (p < 0.01), price of water (P < 0.01), quantity of water (p < 0.01), household size (p < 0.01) and distance (p < 0.01) to existing water sources significantly influenced rural households' WTP for these services. The inference from this study showed that rural dweller sources of water is highly primitive and deplorable. Governments and stakeholders should prioritize the provision of rural water at an affordable price by rural dwellers.Keywords: households, source of water, willingness to pay (WTP), tobit model
Procedia PDF Downloads 3681152 Segmentation of Piecewise Polynomial Regression Model by Using Reversible Jump MCMC Algorithm
Authors: Suparman
Abstract:
Piecewise polynomial regression model is very flexible model for modeling the data. If the piecewise polynomial regression model is matched against the data, its parameters are not generally known. This paper studies the parameter estimation problem of piecewise polynomial regression model. The method which is used to estimate the parameters of the piecewise polynomial regression model is Bayesian method. Unfortunately, the Bayes estimator cannot be found analytically. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed to solve this problem. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain that converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of piecewise polynomial regression model parameter. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of piecewise polynomial regression model.Keywords: piecewise regression, bayesian, reversible jump MCMC, segmentation
Procedia PDF Downloads 3611151 Towards an Eastern Philosophy of Religion: on the Contradictory Identity of Philosophy and Religion
Authors: Carlo Cogliati
Abstract:
The study of the relationship of philosophical reason with the religious domain has been very much a concern for many of the Western philosophical and theological traditions. In this essay, I will suggest a proposal for an Eastern philosophy of religion based on Nishida’s contradictory identity of the two: philosophy soku hi (is, and yes is not) religion. This will pose a challenge to the traditional Western contents and methods of the discipline. This paper aims to serve three purposes. First, I will critically assess Charlesworth’s typology of the relation between philosophy and religion in the West: philosophy as/for/against/about/after religion. I will also engage Harrison’s call for a global philosophy of religion(s) and argue that, although it expands the scope and the range of the questions to address, it is still Western in its method. Second, I will present Nishida’s logic of absolutely contradictory self-identity as the instrument to transcend the dichotomous pair of identity and contradiction: ‘A is A’ and ‘A is not A’. I will then explain how this ‘concrete’ logic of the East, as opposed to the ‘formal’ logic of the West, exhibits at best the bilateral dynamic relation between philosophy and religion. Even as Nishida argues for the non-separability of the two, he is also aware and committed to their mutual non-reducibility. Finally, I will outline the resulting new relation between God and creatures. Nishida in his philosophy soku hi religion replaces the traditional Western dualistic concept of God with the Eastern non-dualistic understanding of God as “neither transcendent nor immanent, and at the same time both transcendent and immanent.” God is therefore a self-identity of contradiction, nowhere and yet everywhere present in the world of creatures. God as absolute being is also absolute nothingness: the world of creatures is the expression of God’s absolute self-negation. The overreaching goal of this essay is to offer an alternative to traditional Western approaches to philosophy of religion based on Nishida’s logic of absolutely contradictory self-identity, as an example of philosophical and religious counter(influence). The resulting relationship between philosophy and religion calls for a revision of traditional concepts and methods. The outcome is not to reformulate the Eastern predilection to not sharply distinguish philosophical thought from religious enlightenment rather to bring together philosophy and religion in the place of identity and difference.Keywords: basho, Nishida Kitaro, shukyotetsugaku, soku hi, zettai mujunteki jikodoitsu no ronri
Procedia PDF Downloads 1801150 Performance-Based Quality Evaluation of Database Conceptual Schemas
Authors: Janusz Getta, Zhaoxi Pan
Abstract:
Performance-based quality evaluation of database conceptual schemas is an important aspect of database design process. It is evident that different conceptual schemas provide different logical schemas and performance of user applications strongly depends on logical and physical database structures. This work presents the entire process of performance-based quality evaluation of conceptual schemas. First, we show format. Then, the paper proposes a new specification of object algebra for representation of conceptual level database applications. Transformation of conceptual schemas and expression of object algebra into implementation schema and implementation in a particular database system allows for precise estimation of the processing costs of database applications and as a consequence for precise evaluation of performance-based quality of conceptual schemas. Then we describe an experiment as a proof of concept for the evaluation procedure presented in the paper.Keywords: conceptual schema, implementation schema, logical schema, object algebra, performance evaluation, query processing
Procedia PDF Downloads 2831149 Energy Communities from Municipality Level to Province Level: A Comparison Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model
Authors: Amro Issam Hamed Attia Ramadan, Marco Zappatore, Pasquale Balena, Antonella Longo
Abstract:
Considering the energetic crisis that is hitting Europe, it becomes more and more necessary to change the energy policies to depend less on fossil fuels and replace them with energy from renewable sources. This has triggered the urge to use clean energy not only to satisfy energy needs and fulfill the required consumption but also to decrease the danger of climatic changes due to harmful emissions. Many countries have already started creating energetic communities based on renewable energy sources. The first step to understanding energy needs in any place is to perfectly know the consumption. In this work, we aim to estimate electricity consumption for a municipality that makes up part of a rural area located in southern Italy using forecast models that allow for the estimation of electricity consumption for the next ten years, and we then apply the same model to the province where the municipality is located and estimate the future consumption for the same period to examine whether it is possible to start from the municipality level to reach the province level when creating energy communities.Keywords: ARIMA, electricity consumption, forecasting models, time series
Procedia PDF Downloads 1601148 Analysis of Exponential Distribution under Step Stress Partially Accelerated Life Testing Plan Using Adaptive Type-I Hybrid Progressive Censoring Schemes with Competing Risks Data
Authors: Ahmadur Rahman, Showkat Ahmad Lone, Ariful Islam
Abstract:
In this article, we have estimated the parameters for the failure times of units based on the sampling technique adaptive type-I progressive hybrid censoring under the step-stress partially accelerated life tests for competing risk. The failure times of the units are assumed to follow an exponential distribution. Maximum likelihood estimation technique is used to estimate the unknown parameters of the distribution and tampered coefficient. Confidence interval also obtained for the parameters. A simulation study is performed by using Monte Carlo Simulation method to check the authenticity of the model and its assumptions.Keywords: adaptive type-I hybrid progressive censoring, competing risks, exponential distribution, simulation, step-stress partially accelerated life tests
Procedia PDF Downloads 3371147 Economic and Environmental Benefits of the Indium Recycling from the Waste Liquid Crystal Displays in China
Authors: Wu Yufeng, Gu Yifan, Wang Hengguang, Gongyu, Zuo Tieyong
Abstract:
Indium is one the scarce resources which can be only used less than 30 years, and more than 70% of the indium is used for the production of the LCD. The benefit of recycling Indium from waste LCD is large. Take the LCD-TV for example, the yield of which was close to 90 million units in 2010. If it was available to recycle the indium effectively, the yield of the secondary-indium could reach up to 110 metric ton, which accounted for one third of the primary indium production in China. And compared with the dispersion and long process extraction of the primary indium resources, secondary indium concentrates in the waste LCD, the exploitation has great economic and environmental benefits. However, the potential benefits were indefinite, resulting in China’s government did not pay enough attention to the indium recycling industry. In our study, an estimation model was constructed to analyze the potential of the indium in the waste LCD. The different types of LCD were detected to find out the content of indium. Then, the potential of the indium in the waste LCD was estimated in China. Furthermore, the pollution emissions of the product process of the primary and secondary indium was analyzed respectively to calculate the economic and environmental benefits of the indium recycling from the waste LCD in China.Keywords: indium recycling, waste liquid crystal displays, benefits, China
Procedia PDF Downloads 4121146 The Curse of Oil: Unpacking the Challenges to Food Security in the Nigeria's Niger Delta
Authors: Abosede Omowumi Babatunde
Abstract:
While the Niger Delta region satisfies the global thirst for oil, the inhabitants have not been adequately compensated for the use of their ancestral land. Besides, the ruthless exploitation and destruction of the natural environment upon which the inhabitants of the Niger Delta depend for their livelihood and sustenance by the activities of oil multinationals, pose major threats to food security in the region and by implication, Nigeria in general, Africa, and the world, given the present global emphasis on food security. This paper examines the effect of oil exploitation on household food security, identify key gaps in measures put in place to address the changes to livelihoods and food security and explore what should be done to improve the local people access to sufficient, safe and culturally acceptable food in the Niger Delta. Data is derived through interviews with key informants and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) conducted with respondents in the local communities in the Niger Delta states of Delta, Bayelsa and Rivers as well as relevant extant studies. The threat to food security is one important aspect of the human security challenges in the Niger Delta which has received limited scholarly attention. In addition, successive Nigerian governments have not meaningfully addressed the negative impacts of oil-induced environmental degradation on traditional livelihoods given the significant linkages between environmental sustainability, livelihood security, and food security. The destructive impact of oil pollution on the farmlands, crops, economic trees, creeks, lakes, and fishing equipment is so devastating that the people can no longer engage in productive farming and fishing. Also important is the limited access to modern agricultural methods for fishing and subsistence farming as fishing and farming are done using mostly crude implements and traditional methods. It is imperative and urgent to take stock of the negative implications of the activities of oil multinationals for environmental and livelihood sustainability, and household food security in the Niger Delta.Keywords: challenges, food security, Nigeria's Niger delta, oil
Procedia PDF Downloads 2431145 Estimation of Global and Diffuse Solar Radiation Studies of Islamabad, Capital City of Pakistan
Authors: M. Akhlaque Ahmed, Maliha Afshan, Adeel Tahir
Abstract:
Global and diffuse solar radiation studies have been carried out for the Capital city of Pakistan, Islamabad ( latitude 330 43’N and Longitude 370 71’E) to assess the solar potential of the area. The global and diffuse solar radiation were carried out using sunshine hour data for the above-mentioned area. Monthly total solar radiation is calculated through regression constants a and b through declination angle of the sun and sunshine hours and KT that is cloudiness index are used to calculate the diffuse solar radiation. Result obtained shows variation in the direct and diffuse component of solar radiation in summer and winter months for Islamabad. Diffuse solar radiation was found maximum in July, i.e., 32% whereas direct or beam radiation was found to be high in April to June, i.e., 73%. During July, August, and December, the sky was found cloudy. From the result, it appears that with the exception of monsoon month July and August the solar energy can be utilized very efficiently throughout the year in Islamabad.Keywords: global radiation, Islamabad, diffuse radiation, sky condition, sunshine hour
Procedia PDF Downloads 1601144 Effect of Specimen Thickness on Probability Distribution of Grown Crack Size in Magnesium Alloys
Authors: Seon Soon Choi
Abstract:
The fatigue crack growth is stochastic because of the fatigue behavior having an uncertainty and a randomness. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the probability distribution of a grown crack size at a specific fatigue crack propagation life for maintenance of structure as well as reliability estimation. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the grown crack size at a specified fatigue life in a rolled magnesium alloy under different specimen thickness conditions. Fatigue crack propagation experiments are carried out in laboratory air under three conditions of specimen thickness using AZ31 to investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior. The goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of a grown crack size under different specimen thickness conditions is performed by Anderson-Darling test. The effect of a specimen thickness on variability of a grown crack size is also investigated.Keywords: crack size, fatigue crack propagation, magnesium alloys, probability distribution, specimen thickness
Procedia PDF Downloads 4911143 An Interpretable Data-Driven Approach for the Stratification of the Cardiorespiratory Fitness
Authors: D.Mendes, J. Henriques, P. Carvalho, T. Rocha, S. Paredes, R. Cabiddu, R. Trimer, R. Mendes, A. Borghi-Silva, L. Kaminsky, E. Ashley, R. Arena, J. Myers
Abstract:
The continued exploration of clinically relevant predictive models continues to be an important pursuit. Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) portends clinical vital information and as such its accurate prediction is of high importance. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to develop a data-driven model, based on computational intelligence techniques and, in particular, clustering approaches, to predict CRF. Two prediction models were implemented and compared: 1) the traditional Wasserman/Hansen Equations; and 2) an interpretable clustering approach. Data used for this analysis were from the 'FRIEND - Fitness Registry and the Importance of Exercise: The National Data Base'; in the present study a subset of 10690 apparently healthy individuals were utilized. The accuracy of the models was performed through the computation of sensitivity, specificity, and geometric mean values. The results show the superiority of the clustering approach in the accurate estimation of CRF (i.e., maximal oxygen consumption).Keywords: cardiorespiratory fitness, data-driven models, knowledge extraction, machine learning
Procedia PDF Downloads 2771142 Estimation of Functional Response Model by Supervised Functional Principal Component Analysis
Authors: Hyon I. Paek, Sang Rim Kim, Hyon A. Ryu
Abstract:
In functional linear regression, one typical problem is to reduce dimension. Compared with multivariate linear regression, functional linear regression is regarded as an infinite-dimensional case, and the main task is to reduce dimensions of functional response and functional predictors. One common approach is to adapt functional principal component analysis (FPCA) on functional predictors and then use a few leading functional principal components (FPC) to predict the functional model. The leading FPCs estimated by the typical FPCA explain a major variation of the functional predictor, but these leading FPCs may not be mostly correlated with the functional response, so they may not be significant in the prediction for response. In this paper, we propose a supervised functional principal component analysis method for a functional response model with FPCs obtained by considering the correlation of the functional response. Our method would have a better prediction accuracy than the typical FPCA method.Keywords: supervised, functional principal component analysis, functional response, functional linear regression
Procedia PDF Downloads 621141 The Impact of Board of Directors on CEO Compensation: Evidence from the UK
Authors: Saleh Alagla, Murya Habbash
Abstract:
The paper investigates whether the board of directors plays a monitoring role or not in CEO compensation for the UK firms during the eve of the recent financial crisis, 2004-2008. The use of heteroscedastic and autocorrelated error consistent estimation of the panel data shows, surprisingly, that four board characteristics variables are found to play a significant role in increasing the level of CEO compensation. This insightful result would suggest evidence of the managerial power theory in general and the cronyism hypothesis in particular. Moreover, the interesting evidence supporting managerial power perspective is that CEO-Chair duality reduces long-term compensation while increasing short-term compensation, thus suggesting that CEOs are risk averse who prefer short-term compensation to long-term compensation. Finally, consistent with the agency perspective board size is found to increase all compensation variables as expected.Keywords: corporate governance, CEO compensation, board of directors, internal governance mechanisms, agency theory, managerial power theory, cronyism hypothesis
Procedia PDF Downloads 7901140 Engaging the Terrorism Problematique in Africa: Discursive and Non-Discursive Approaches to Counter Terrorism
Authors: Cecil Blake, Tolu Kayode-Adedeji, Innocent Chiluwa, Charles Iruonagbe
Abstract:
National, regional and international security threats have dominated the twenty-first century thus far. Insurgencies that utilize “terrorism” as their primary strategy pose the most serious threat to global security. States in turn adopt terrorist strategies to resist and even defeat insurgents who invoke the legitimacy of statehood to justify their action. In short, the era is dominated by the use of terror tactics by state and non-state actors. Globally, there is a powerful network of groups involved in insurgencies using Islam as the bastion for their cause. In Africa, there are Boko Haram, Al Shabaab and Al Qaeda in the Maghreb representing Islamic groups utilizing terror strategies and tactics to prosecute their wars. The task at hand is to discover and to use multiple ways of handling the present security threats, including novel approaches to policy formulation, implementation, monitoring and evaluation that would pay significant attention to the important role of culture and communication strategies germane for discursive means of conflict resolution. In other to achieve this, the proposed research would address inter alia, root causes of insurgences that predicate their mission on Islamic tenets particularly in Africa; discursive and non-discursive counter-terrorism approaches fashioned by African governments, continental supra-national and regional organizations, recruitment strategies by major non-sate actors in Africa that rely solely on terrorist strategies and tactics and sources of finances for the groups under study. A major anticipated outcome of this research is a contribution to answers that would lead to the much needed stability required for development in African countries experiencing insurgencies carried out by the use of patterned terror strategies and tactics. The nature of the research requires the use of triangulation as the methodological tool.Keywords: counter-terrorism, discourse, Nigeria, security, terrorism
Procedia PDF Downloads 4761139 Economic Loss due to Ganoderma Disease in Oil Palm
Authors: K. Assis, K. P. Chong, A. S. Idris, C. M. Ho
Abstract:
Oil palm or Elaeis guineensis is considered as the golden crop in Malaysia. But oil palm industry in this country is now facing with the most devastating disease called as Ganoderma Basal Stem Rot disease. The objective of this paper is to analyze the economic loss due to this disease. There were three commercial oil palm sites selected for collecting the required data for economic analysis. Yield parameter used to measure the loss was the total weight of fresh fruit bunch in six months. The predictors include disease severity, change in disease severity, number of infected neighbor palms, age of palm, planting generation, topography, and first order interaction variables. The estimation model of yield loss was identified by using backward elimination based regression method. Diagnostic checking was conducted on the residual of the best yield loss model. The value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used to measure the forecast performance of the model. The best yield loss model was then used to estimate the economic loss by using the current monthly price of fresh fruit bunch at mill gate.Keywords: ganoderma, oil palm, regression model, yield loss, economic loss
Procedia PDF Downloads 3751138 System Security Impact on the Dynamic Characteristics of Measurement Sensors in Smart Grids
Authors: Yiyang Su, Jörg Neumann, Jan Wetzlich, Florian Thiel
Abstract:
Smart grid is a term used to describe the next generation power grid. New challenges such as integration of renewable and decentralized energy sources, the requirement for continuous grid estimation and optimization, as well as the use of two-way flows of energy have been brought to the power gird. In order to achieve efficient, reliable, sustainable, as well as secure delivery of electric power more and more information and communication technologies are used for the monitoring and the control of power grids. Consequently, the need for cybersecurity is dramatically increased and has converged into several standards which will be presented here. These standards for the smart grid must be designed to satisfy both performance and reliability requirements. An in depth investigation of the effect of retrospectively embedded security in existing grids on it’s dynamic behavior is required. Therefore, a retrofitting plan for existing meters is offered, and it’s performance in a test low voltage microgrid is investigated. As a result of this, integration of security measures into measurement architectures of smart grids at the design phase is strongly recommended.Keywords: cyber security, performance, protocols, security standards, smart grid
Procedia PDF Downloads 3091137 Radar Track-based Classification of Birds and UAVs
Authors: Altilio Rosa, Chirico Francesco, Foglia Goffredo
Abstract:
In recent years, the number of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) has significantly increased. The rapid development of commercial and recreational drones makes them an important part of our society. Despite the growing list of their applications, these vehicles pose a huge threat to civil and military installations: detection, classification and neutralization of such flying objects become an urgent need. Radar is an effective remote sensing tool for detecting and tracking flying objects, but scenarios characterized by the presence of a high number of tracks related to flying birds make especially challenging the drone detection task: operator PPI is cluttered with a huge number of potential threats and his reaction time can be severely affected. Flying birds compared to UAVs show similar velocity, RADAR cross-section and, in general, similar characteristics. Building from the absence of a single feature that is able to distinguish UAVs and birds, this paper uses a multiple features approach where an original feature selection technique is developed to feed binary classifiers trained to distinguish birds and UAVs. RADAR tracks acquired on the field and related to different UAVs and birds performing various trajectories were used to extract specifically designed target movement-related features based on velocity, trajectory and signal strength. An optimization strategy based on a genetic algorithm is also introduced to select the optimal subset of features and to estimate the performance of several classification algorithms (Neural network, SVM, Logistic regression…) both in terms of the number of selected features and misclassification error. Results show that the proposed methods are able to reduce the dimension of the data space and to remove almost all non-drone false targets with a suitable classification accuracy (higher than 95%).Keywords: birds, classification, machine learning, UAVs
Procedia PDF Downloads 2081136 Mechanical Properties and Microstructural Analysis of Al6061-Red Mud Composites
Authors: M. Gangadharappa, M. Ravi Kumar, H. N. Reddappa
Abstract:
The mechanical properties and morphological analysis of Al6061-Red mud particulate composites were investigated. The compositions of the composite include a matrix of Al6061 and the red mud particles of 53-75 micron size as reinforcement ranging from 0% to 12% at an interval of 2%. Stir casting technique was used to fabricate Al6061-Red mud composites. Density measurement, estimation of percentage porosity, tensile properties, fracture toughness, hardness value, impact energy, percentage elongation and percentage reduction in area. Further, the microstructures and SEM examinations were investigated to characterize the composites produced. The result shows that a uniform dispersion of the red mud particles along the grain boundaries of the Al6061 alloy. The tensile strength and hardness values increases with the addition of Red mud particles, but there is a slight decrease in the impact energy values, values of percentage elongation and percentage reduction in area as the reinforcement increases. From these results of investigation, we concluded that the red mud, an industrial waste can be used to enhance the properties of Al6061 alloy for engineering applications.Keywords: Al6061, red mud, tensile strength, hardness and microstructures
Procedia PDF Downloads 5551135 Method for Evaluating the Monetary Value of a Customized Version of the Digital Twin for the Additive Manufacturing
Authors: Fabio Oettl, Sebastian Hoerbrand, Tobias Wittmeir, Johannes Schilp
Abstract:
By combining the additive manufacturing (AM)- process with digital concepts, like the digital twin (DT) or the downsized and basing concept of the digital part file (DPF), the competitiveness of additive manufacturing is enhanced and new use cases like decentral production are enabled. But in literature, one can´t find any quantitative approach for valuing the usage of a DT or DPF in AM. Out of this fact, such an approach will be developed within this paper in order to further promote or dissuade the usage of these concepts. The focus is set on the production as an early lifecycle phase, which means that the AM-production process gets analyzed regarding the potential advantages of using DPF in AM. These advantages are transferred to a monetary value with this approach. By calculating the costs of the DPF, an overall monetary value is a result. Thereon a tool, based on a simulation environment is constructed, where the algorithms are transformed into a program. The results of applying this tool show that an overall value of 20,81 € for the DPF can be realized for one special use case. For the future application of the DPF there is the recommendation to integrate especially sustainable information because out of this, a higher value of the DPF can be expected.Keywords: additive manufacturing, digital concept costs, digital part file, digital twin, monetary value estimation
Procedia PDF Downloads 1921134 Regression for Doubly Inflated Multivariate Poisson Distributions
Authors: Ishapathik Das, Sumen Sen, N. Rao Chaganty, Pooja Sengupta
Abstract:
Dependent multivariate count data occur in several research studies. These data can be modeled by a multivariate Poisson or Negative binomial distribution constructed using copulas. However, when some of the counts are inflated, that is, the number of observations in some cells are much larger than other cells, then the copula based multivariate Poisson (or Negative binomial) distribution may not fit well and it is not an appropriate statistical model for the data. There is a need to modify or adjust the multivariate distribution to account for the inflated frequencies. In this article, we consider the situation where the frequencies of two cells are higher compared to the other cells, and develop a doubly inflated multivariate Poisson distribution function using multivariate Gaussian copula. We also discuss procedures for regression on covariates for the doubly inflated multivariate count data. For illustrating the proposed methodologies, we present a real data containing bivariate count observations with inflations in two cells. Several models and linear predictors with log link functions are considered, and we discuss maximum likelihood estimation to estimate unknown parameters of the models.Keywords: copula, Gaussian copula, multivariate distributions, inflated distributios
Procedia PDF Downloads 1511133 Predicting Indonesia External Debt Crisis: An Artificial Neural Network Approach
Authors: Riznaldi Akbar
Abstract:
In this study, we compared the performance of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model with back-propagation algorithm in correctly predicting in-sample and out-of-sample external debt crisis in Indonesia. We found that exchange rate, foreign reserves, and exports are the major determinants to experiencing external debt crisis. The ANN in-sample performance provides relatively superior results. The ANN model is able to classify correctly crisis of 89.12 per cent with reasonably low false alarms of 7.01 per cent. In out-of-sample, the prediction performance fairly deteriorates compared to their in-sample performances. It could be explained as the ANN model tends to over-fit the data in the in-sample, but it could not fit the out-of-sample very well. The 10-fold cross-validation has been used to improve the out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results also offer policy implications. The out-of-sample performance could be very sensitive to the size of the samples, as it could yield a higher total misclassification error and lower prediction accuracy. The ANN model could be used to identify past crisis episodes with some accuracy, but predicting crisis outside the estimation sample is much more challenging because of the presence of uncertainty.Keywords: debt crisis, external debt, artificial neural network, ANN
Procedia PDF Downloads 4321132 Modeling Food Popularity Dependencies Using Social Media Data
Authors: DEVASHISH KHULBE, MANU PATHAK
Abstract:
The rise in popularity of major social media platforms have enabled people to share photos and textual information about their daily life. One of the popular topics about which information is shared is food. Since a lot of media about food are attributed to particular locations and restaurants, information like spatio-temporal popularity of various cuisines can be analyzed. Tracking the popularity of food types and retail locations across space and time can also be useful for business owners and restaurant investors. In this work, we present an approach using off-the shelf machine learning techniques to identify trends and popularity of cuisine types in an area using geo-tagged data from social media, Google images and Yelp. After adjusting for time, we use the Kernel Density Estimation to get hot spots across the location and model the dependencies among food cuisines popularity using Bayesian Networks. We consider the Manhattan borough of New York City as the location for our analyses but the approach can be used for any area with social media data and information about retail businesses.Keywords: Web Mining, Geographic Information Systems, Business popularity, Spatial Data Analyses
Procedia PDF Downloads 1091131 Multi-Disciplinary Optimisation Methodology for Aircraft Load Prediction
Authors: Sudhir Kumar Tiwari
Abstract:
The paper demonstrates a methodology that can be used at an early design stage of any conventional aircraft. This research activity assesses the feasibility derivation of methodology for aircraft loads estimation during the various phases of design for a transport category aircraft by utilizing potential of using commercial finite element analysis software, which may drive significant time saving. Early Design phase have limited data and quick changing configuration results in handling of large number of load cases. It is useful to idealize the aircraft as a connection of beams, which can be very accurately modelled using finite element analysis (beam elements). This research explores the correct approach towards idealizing an aircraft using beam elements. FEM Techniques like inertia relief were studied for implementation during course of work. The correct boundary condition technique envisaged for generation of shear force, bending moment and torque diagrams for the aircraft. The possible applications of this approach are the aircraft design process, which have been investigated.Keywords: multi-disciplinary optimization, aircraft load, finite element analysis, stick model
Procedia PDF Downloads 3441130 Estimation of Respiratory Parameters in Pressure Controlled Ventilation System with Double Lungs on Secretion Clearance
Authors: Qian Zhang, Dongkai Shen, Yan Shi
Abstract:
A new mechanical ventilator with automatic secretion clearance function can improve the secretion clearance safely and efficiently. However, in recent modeling studies on various mechanical ventilators, it was considered that human had one lung, and the coupling effect of double lungs was never illustrated. In this paper, to expound the coupling effect of double lungs, a mathematical model of a ventilation system of a bi-level positive airway pressure (BiPAP) controlled ventilator with secretion clearance was set up. Moreover, an experimental study about the mechanical ventilation system of double lungs on BiPAP ventilator was conducted to verify the mathematical model. Finally, the coupling effect of double lungs of the mathematical ventilation was studied by simulation and orthogonal experimental design. This paper adds to previous studies and can be referred to optimization methods in medical researches.Keywords: double lungs, coupling effect, secretion clearance, orthogonal experimental design
Procedia PDF Downloads 5961129 Absorbed Dose Estimation of 177Lu-DOTATOC in Adenocarcinoma Breast Cancer Bearing Mice
Authors: S. Zolghadri, M. Mousavi-Daramoroudi, H. Yousefnia, F. Abbasi-Davani
Abstract:
In this study, the absorbed dose of human organs after injection of 177Lu-DOTATOC was studied based on the biodistribution of the complex in adenocarcinoma breast cancer bearing mice. For this purpose, the biodistribution of the radiolabelled complex was studied and compartmental modeling was applied to calculate the absorbed dose with high precision. As expected, 177Lu-DOTATOC illustrated a notable specific uptake in tumor and pancreas, organs with high level of somatostatin receptor on their surface and the effectiveness of the radio-conjugate for targeting of the breast adenocarcinoma tumors was indicated. The elicited results of modeling were the exponential equations, and those are utilized for obtaining the cumulated activity data by taking their integral. The results also exemplified that non-target absorbed-doses such as the liver, spleen and pancreas were approximately 0.008, 0.004, and 0.039, respectively. While these values were so much lower than target (tumor) absorbed-dose, it seems due to this low toxicity, this complex is a good agent for therapy.Keywords: ¹⁷⁷Lu, breast cancer, compartmental modeling, dosimetry
Procedia PDF Downloads 1381128 Observer-Based Control Design for Double Integrators Systems with Long Sampling Periods and Actuator Uncertainty
Authors: Tomas Menard
Abstract:
The design of control-law for engineering systems has been investigated for many decades. While many results are concerned with continuous systems with continuous output, nowadays, many controlled systems have to transmit their output measurements through network, hence making it discrete-time. But it is well known that the sampling of a system whose control-law is based on the continuous output may render the system unstable, especially when this sampling period is long compared to the system dynamics. The control design then has to be adapted in order to cope with this issue. In this paper, we consider systems which can be modeled as double integrator with uncertainty on the input since many mechanical systems can be put under such form. We present a control scheme based on an observer using only discrete time measurement and which provides continuous time estimation of the state, combined with a continuous control law, which stabilized a system with second-order dynamics even in the presence of uncertainty. It is further shown that arbitrarily long sampling periods can be dealt with properly setting the control scheme parameters.Keywords: dynamical system, control law design, sampled output, observer design
Procedia PDF Downloads 1801127 Estimation of Subgrade Resilient Modulus from Soil Index Properties
Authors: Magdi M. E. Zumrawi, Mohamed Awad
Abstract:
Determination of Resilient Modulus (MR) is quite important for characterizing materials in pavement design and evaluation. The main focus of this study is to develop a correlation that predict the resilient modulus of subgrade soils from simple and easy measured soil index properties. To achieve this objective, three subgrade soils representing typical Khartoum soils were selected and tested in the laboratory for measuring resilient modulus. Other basic laboratory tests were conducted on the soils to determine their physical properties. Several soil samples were prepared and compacted at different moisture contents and dry densities and then tested using resilient modulus testing machine. Based on experimental results, linear relationship of MR with the consistency factor ‘Fc’ which is a combination of dry density, void ratio and consistency index had been developed. The results revealed that very good linear relationship found between the MR and the consistency factor with a coefficient of linearity (R2) more than 0.9. The consistency factor could be used for the prediction of the MR of compacted subgrade soils with precise and reliable results.Keywords: Consistency factor, resilient modulus, subgrade soil, properties
Procedia PDF Downloads 1811126 Personalized Intervention through Causal Inference in mHealth
Authors: Anna Guitart Atienza, Ana Fernández del Río, Madhav Nekkar, Jelena Ljubicic, África Periáñez, Eura Shin, Lauren Bellhouse
Abstract:
The use of digital devices in healthcare or mobile health (mHealth) has increased in recent years due to the advances in digital technology, making it possible to nudge healthy behaviors through individual interventions. In addition, mHealth is becoming essential in poor-resource settings due to the widespread use of smartphones in areas where access to professional healthcare is limited. In this work, we evaluate mHealth interventions in low-income countries with a focus on causal inference. Counterfactuals estimation and other causal computations are key to determining intervention success and assisting in empirical decision-making. Our main purpose is to personalize treatment recommendations and triage patients at the individual level in order to maximize the entire intervention's impact on the desired outcome. For this study, collected data includes mHealth individual logs from front-line healthcare workers, electronic health records (EHR), and external variables data such as environmental, demographic, and geolocation information.Keywords: causal inference, mHealth, intervention, personalization
Procedia PDF Downloads 1201125 A Review on Bioremediation of Waste Effluent Associated with Pulp and Paper Industry
Authors: Adamu Muhammed Tukur
Abstract:
Pulp and paper industry is one of the fastest growing industries due to an increased demand in paper products. For it to satisfy this ever increasing demand, it adopts new technological innovations some of which are proved to affect our environment negatively. Global consumption of paper has increased by 400% in the last four decades and this suggests that more research is required to assess the impact of industrial effluents to our environment and public health. Paper products are generally biodegradable, however, the processes involved in its production which involve the use of mainly bleaching agents and other non-biodegradable substances pose serious problem to the environment. There are more than 250 chemicals released in paper mill waste and some are xenobiotics. Different methods such as physical and chemical methods can be adopted for the remediation of the effluents but are proved to be costly and not safe to the environment. On the other hand, biological method is shown to be less costly and environmentally friendly. Microorganisms and their enzymes have shown a promising future for bioremediation of effluents related to paper mill. Many studies prove that one of the major pollutants in the paper mill effluent is phenol especially its chlorinated derivatives. Pentachlorophenol is extremely hazardous to living cells and therefore need to be removed from the environment. Microorganisms including bacteria and fungi have the potential to degrade phenolic compounds e.g. Bacillus stearothermiphilus, Pseudomonas putida, Coricus versicolor, Sphingomonas chlorophenolica, Fusarium sp, Bacillus subtilis and P. aeroginosa. Enzymes used for the degradation include phenol hydrooxylase, polyphenoloxylase, laccase, peroxidase among others. Lignin is another important pollutant and is resistant to microbial degradation but it has been proved that certain bacteria and fungi like can degrade it. Among the fungi white-rot fungi like Fomes lividus and Trametes vesicolor are the most important bioremediators. This review focused on use of microorganism to reduce or eradicate pollutants released from the paper industry. It can serve as a review for further research to be conducted especially in the field of Biotechnology.Keywords: bioremediation, pulp and paper, pentachlorophenol, environment
Procedia PDF Downloads 3131124 Power Generation through Water Vapour: An Approach of Using Sea/River/Lake Water as Renewable Energy Source
Authors: Riad
Abstract:
As present world needs more and more energy in a low cost way, it needs to find out the optimal way of power generation. In the sense of low cost, renewable energy is one of the greatest sources of power generation. Water vapour of sea/river/lake can be used for power generation by using the greenhouse effect in a large flat type water chamber floating on the water surface. The water chamber will always be kept half filled. When water evaporates by sunlight, the high pressured gaseous water will be stored in the chamber. By passing through a pipe and by using aerodynamics it can be used for power generation. The water level of the chamber is controlled by some means. As a large amount of water evaporates, an estimation can be highlighted, approximately 3 to 4 thousand gallons of water evaporates from per acre of surface (this amount will be more by greenhouse effect). This large amount of gaseous water can be utilized for power generation by passing through a pipe. This method can be a source of power generation.Keywords: renewable energy, greenhouse effect, water chamber, water vapour
Procedia PDF Downloads 346