Search results for: housing price prediction

Authors: Lucas Viani, Benedetta Mennucci, Soo Young Park, Johannes Gierschner

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Organic semiconductors have attracted the attention of the scientific community in the past decades due to their unique physicochemical properties, allowing new designs and alternative device fabrication methods. Until today, organic electronic devices are largely based on conjugated polymers mainly due to their easy processability. In the recent years, due to moderate ET and CT efficiencies and the ill-defined nature of polymeric systems the focus has been shifting to small conjugated molecules with well-defined chemical structure, easier control of intermolecular packing, and enhanced CT and ET properties. It has led to the synthesis of new small molecules, followed by the growth of their crystalline structure and ultimately by the device preparation. This workflow is commonly followed without a clear knowledge of the ET and CT properties related mainly to the macroscopic systems, which may lead to financial and time losses, since not all materials will deliver the properties and efficiencies demanded by the current standards. In this work, we present a theoretical workflow designed to predict the key properties of ET of these new materials prior synthesis, thus speeding up the discovery of new promising materials. It is based on quantum mechanical, hybrid, and classical methodologies, starting from a single molecule structure, finishing with the prediction of its packing structure, and prediction of properties of interest such as static and averaged excitonic couplings, and exciton diffusion length.

Keywords: organic semiconductor, organic crystals, energy transport, excitonic couplings

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Authors: Jiin Jeong, Taekwang Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

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The target microgrid in this paper is isolated from the large central power system and is assumed to consist of wind generators, photovoltaic power generators, an energy storage system (ESS), a diesel power generator, the community load, and a dump load. The operation of such a microgrid can be hazardous because of the uncertain prediction of power supply and demand and especially due to the high fluctuation of the output from the wind generators. In this paper, we propose an iterative replanning method for determining the appropriate level of diesel generation and the charging/discharging cycles of the ESS for the upcoming one-hour horizon. To cope with the uncertainty of the estimation of supply and demand, the one-hour plan is built repeatedly in the regular interval of one minute by rolling the one-hour horizon. Since the plan should be built with a sufficiently large safe margin to avoid any possible black-out, some energy waste through the dump load is inevitable. In our approach, the level of safe margin is optimized through learning from the past experience. The simulation experiments show that our method combined with the margin optimization can reduce the dump load compared to the method without such optimization.

Keywords: microgrid, operation planning, power efficiency optimization, supply and demand prediction

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Authors: Claire Xu, Welton Wang, Manasvi Pinnaka, Anqi Pan, Michael Han

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Hospitalizations account for one-third of the total health care spending in the US. Early risk detection and intervention can reduce this high cost and increase the satisfaction of both patients and physicians. Due to the lack of awareness of the potential arising risks in home environment, the opportunities for patients to seek early actions of clinical visits are dramatically reduced. This research aims to offer a highly personalized remote patients monitoring and risk assessment AI framework to identify the potentially preventable hospitalization for both acute as well as chronic diseases. A hybrid-AI framework is trained with data from clinical setting, patients surveys, as well as online databases. 20+ risk factors are analyzed ranging from activities, biometric info, demographic info, socio-economic info, hospitalization history, medication info, lifestyle info, etc. The AI model yields high performance of 87% accuracy and 88 sensitivity with 20+ features. This hybrid-AI framework is proven to be effective in identifying the potentially preventable hospitalization. Further, the high indicative features are identified by the models which guide us to a healthy lifestyle and early intervention suggestions.

Keywords: hospitalization prevention, machine learning, remote patient monitoring, risk prediction

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Authors: G. Singer, M. Golan

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Providing students with learning disabilities (LD) with extra time to grant them equal access to the exam is a necessary but insufficient condition to compensate for their LD; there should also be a clear indication that the additional time was actually used. For example, if students with LD use more time than students without LD and yet receive lower grades, this may indicate that a different accommodation is required. If they achieve higher grades but use the same amount of time, then the effectiveness of the accommodation has not been demonstrated. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the effect of including parameters related to LD and extended exam time, along with other commonly-used characteristics (e.g., student background and ability measures such as high-school grades), on the ability of ordinal decision-tree algorithms to predict exam performance. We use naturally-occurring data collected from hundreds of undergraduate engineering students. The sub-goals are i) to examine the improvement in prediction accuracy when the indicator of exam performance includes 'actual time used' in addition to the conventional indicator (exam grade) employed in most research; ii) to explore the effectiveness of extended exam time on exam performance for different courses and for LD students with different profiles (i.e., sets of characteristics). This is achieved by using the patterns (i.e., subgroups) generated by the algorithms to identify pairs of subgroups that differ in just one characteristic (e.g., course or type of LD) but have different outcomes in terms of exam performance (grade and time used). Since grade and time used to exhibit an ordering form, we propose a method based on ordinal decision-trees, which applies a weighted information-gain ratio (WIGR) measure for selecting the classifying attributes. Unlike other known ordinal algorithms, our method does not assume monotonicity in the data. The proposed WIGR is an extension of an information-theoretic measure, in the sense that it adjusts to the case of an ordinal target and takes into account the error severity between two different target classes. Specifically, we use ordinal C4.5, random-forest, and AdaBoost algorithms, as well as an ensemble technique composed of ordinal and non-ordinal classifiers. Firstly, we find that the inclusion of LD and extended exam-time parameters improves prediction of exam performance (compared to specifications of the algorithms that do not include these variables). Secondly, when the indicator of exam performance includes 'actual time used' together with grade (as opposed to grade only), the prediction accuracy improves. Thirdly, our subgroup analyses show clear differences in the effect of extended exam time on exam performance among different courses and different student profiles. From a methodological perspective, we find that the ordinal decision-tree based algorithms outperform their conventional, non-ordinal counterparts. Further, we demonstrate that the ensemble-based approach leverages the strengths of each type of classifier (ordinal and non-ordinal) and yields better performance than each classifier individually.

Keywords: actual exam time usage, ensemble learning, learning disabilities, ordinal classification, time extension

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Authors: Shenlun Chen, Leonard Wee

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Tumor grading is an essential reference for colorectal cancer (CRC) staging and survival prognostication. The widely used World Health Organization (WHO) grading system defines histological grade of CRC adenocarcinoma based on the density of glandular formation on whole slide images (WSI). Tumors are classified as well-, moderately-, poorly- or un-differentiated depending on the percentage of the tumor that is gland forming; >95%, 50-95%, 5-50% and <5%, respectively. However, manually grading WSIs is a time-consuming process and can cause observer error due to subjective judgment and unnoticed regions. Furthermore, pathologists’ grading is usually coarse while a finer and continuous differentiation grade may help to stratifying CRC patients better. In this study, a deep learning based automatic differentiation grading algorithm was developed and evaluated by survival analysis. Firstly, a gland segmentation model was developed for segmenting gland structures. Gland regions of WSIs were delineated and used for differentiation annotating. Tumor regions were annotated by experienced pathologists into high-, medium-, low-differentiation and normal tissue, which correspond to tumor with clear-, unclear-, no-gland structure and non-tumor, respectively. Then a differentiation prediction model was developed on these human annotations. Finally, all enrolled WSIs were processed by gland segmentation model and differentiation prediction model. The differentiation grade can be calculated by deep learning models’ prediction of tumor regions and tumor differentiation status according to WHO’s defines. If multiple WSIs were possessed by a patient, the highest differentiation grade was chosen. Additionally, the differentiation grade was normalized into scale between 0 to 1. The Cancer Genome Atlas, project COAD (TCGA-COAD) project was enrolled into this study. For the gland segmentation model, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) reached 0.981 and accuracy reached 0.932 in validation set. For the differentiation prediction model, ROC reached 0.983, 0.963, 0.963, 0.981 and accuracy reached 0.880, 0.923, 0.668, 0.881 for groups of low-, medium-, high-differentiation and normal tissue in validation set. Four hundred and one patients were selected after removing WSIs without gland regions and patients without follow up data. The concordance index reached to 0.609. Optimized cut off point of 51% was found by “Maxstat” method which was almost the same as WHO system’s cut off point of 50%. Both WHO system’s cut off point and optimized cut off point performed impressively in Kaplan-Meier curves and both p value of logrank test were below 0.005. In this study, gland structure of WSIs and differentiation status of tumor regions were proven to be predictable through deep leaning method. A finer and continuous differentiation grade can also be automatically calculated through above models. The differentiation grade was proven to stratify CAC patients well in survival analysis, whose optimized cut off point was almost the same as WHO tumor grading system. The tool of automatically calculating differentiation grade may show potential in field of therapy decision making and personalized treatment.

Keywords: colorectal cancer, differentiation, survival analysis, tumor grading

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Authors: Stefanie J. Huber, Tobias Schmidt

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Cross-country differences in homeownership rates are large and very persistent over time, ranging between 35% in Switzerland to 80% in Spain. In this project, we test the hypothesis that these cross-country differences are driven by cultural tastes. To isolate the effect of culture from the effects of institutions and economic factors, we investigate the homeownership attitudes of second-generation immigrants in the United States. We find robust evidence that cross-country differences in cultural preferences are an important explanatory factor for the observed persistent differences in homeownership rates across countries.

Keywords: housing markets, homeownership rates, country heterogeneity, preferences, cultural transmission, migration

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Authors: Alice V. Brown, Patrick Egan, Dorothy Bagshaw, Jackie Oakley, Emma Vieira, Louise Southalan, Duc Dau, Lucy Spanswick, Lindey Andrews, Mandy Wilson, Jocelyn Jones

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Western Australia has recently adopted a 10-year plan to end homelessness across its State, with sections of the plan focused particularly on the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population. In 2022, we engaged with 70-90 Aboriginal people experiencing homelessness in Perth, Western Australia, through qualitative interviews and creative methods, listening to their experiences of homelessness and their views on how services, State plans, and policies could better support them. This research was driven by the Aboriginal community through a Community Ownership Group of 16 Aboriginal Elders, elected by Elders’ groups, from across the Perth metropolitan area. The Community Ownership Group met every six weeks across the 15-month project timeline to guide the research team, endorse methods chosen, and provide richer context to research findings to ensure they adequately represent the experiences of Aboriginal people. These meetings were audio-recorded when possible and documented through meeting notes, verbal and visual minutes, and film, providing insights into homelessness from the perspective of Aboriginal Elders. In this paper, we compare the views of those experiencing homelessness with the views of the Aboriginal Elders -many of whom have experienced homelessness firsthand- and literature regarding how those experiencing homelessness can be better supported. We detail the ‘survival-directed thinking’ of those we engaged with who was in the throes of homelessness, leading them to focus more on immediate solutions such as food and housing. We then compare these narratives to Elders’ views that have been more regularly focused on connection to culture and long-term plans for healing homelessness, alongside immediate outreach -views also reflected in the literature. Through these comparisons, we highlight the importance of engaging both with those currently experiencing homelessness as well as with Aboriginal Elders as important cultural caretakers and authorities. We demonstrate how these varied voices uncover both long and short-term perspectives on how homelessness can be better managed in policy and service provision. We also highlight the potential role Aboriginal Elders can play in supporting the Aboriginal homeless community and their transition into housing.

Keywords: Aboriginal and Torres strait islander peoples, aboriginal elders, homelessness, community-led research

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Authors: Laxuman Thakuri

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Community-based forest management is often glorified as one of the best forest management alternatives in the developing countries like Nepal. It is also believed that the transfer of forest management authorities to local communities is decisive to take efficient decisions, maximize the forest benefits and improve the people’s livelihood. The community forestry of Nepal also aims to maximize the forest benefits; share them among the user households and improve their livelihood. However, how the local communities fix the price of forest products and local pricing made by the forest user groups affects to equitable forest benefits-sharing among the user households and their livelihood improvement objectives, the answer is largely silent among the researchers and policy-makers alike. This study examines local pricing system of forest products in the lowland community forestry and its effects on equitable benefit-sharing and livelihood improvement objectives. The study discovered that forest user groups fixed the price of forest products based on three criteria: i) costs incur in harvesting, ii) office operation costs, and iii) livelihood improvement costs through community development and income generating activities. Since user households have heterogeneous socio-economic conditions, the forest user groups have been applied low pricing strategy even for high-value forest products that the access of socio-economically worse-off households can be increased. However, the results of forest products distribution showed that as a result of low pricing strategy the access of socio-economically better-off households has been increasing at higher rate than worse-off and an inequality situation has been created. Similarly, the low pricing strategy is also found defective to livelihood improvement objectives. The study suggests for revising the forest products pricing system in community forest management and reforming the community forestry policy as well.

Keywords: community forestry, forest products pricing, equitable benefit-sharing, livelihood improvement, Nepal

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Authors: Arun Goel

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The present paper attempts to investigate the prediction of air entrainment rate and aeration efficiency of a free over-fall jets issuing from a triangular sharp crested weir by using regression based modelling. The empirical equations, support vector machine (polynomial and radial basis function) models and the linear regression techniques were applied on the triangular sharp crested weirs relating the air entrainment rate and the aeration efficiency to the input parameters namely drop height, discharge, and vertex angle. It was observed that there exists a good agreement between the measured values and the values obtained using empirical equations, support vector machine (Polynomial and rbf) models, and the linear regression techniques. The test results demonstrated that the SVM based (Poly & rbf) model also provided acceptable prediction of the measured values with reasonable accuracy along with empirical equations and linear regression techniques in modelling the air entrainment rate and the aeration efficiency of a free over-fall jets issuing from triangular sharp crested weir. Further sensitivity analysis has also been performed to study the impact of input parameter on the output in terms of air entrainment rate and aeration efficiency.

Keywords: air entrainment rate, dissolved oxygen, weir, SVM, regression

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Authors: Ya Lv

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This article presents the application of the semi-analytic method (SAM) in the thermal management solution (TMS) of the energy storage system (ESS). The TMS studied in this work is fluid cooling. In fluid cooling, both effective heat conduction and heat convection are indispensable due to the heat transfer from solid to fluid. Correspondingly, an efficient TMS requires a design investigation of the following parameters: fluid inlet temperature, ESS initial temperature, fluid flow rate, working c rate, continuous working time, and materials properties. Their variation induces a change of thermal performance in the battery module, which is usually evaluated by numerical simulation. Compared to complicated computation resources and long computation time in simulation, the SAM is developed in this article to predict the thermal influence within a few seconds. In SAM, a fast prediction model is reckoned by combining numerical simulation with theoretical/empirical equations. The SAM can explore the thermal effect of boundary parameters in both steady-state and transient heat transfer scenarios within a short time. Therefore, the SAM developed in this work can simplify the design cycle of TMS and inspire more possibilities in TMS design.

Keywords: semi-analytic method, fast prediction model, thermal influence of boundary parameters, energy storage system

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Authors: Syed Atif Hassan, Luv Mehta, Syed Asif Hassan

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Hit song science is a field of investigation wherein machine learning techniques are applied to music tracks in order to extract such features from audio signals which can capture information that could explain the popularity of respective tracks. Record companies invest huge amounts of money into recruiting fresh talents and churning out new music each year. Gaining insight into the basis of why a song becomes popular will result in tremendous benefits for the music industry. This paper aims to extract basic musical and more advanced, acoustic features from songs while also taking into account external factors that play a role in making a particular song popular. We use a dataset derived from popular Spotify playlists divided by genre. We use ten genres (blues, classical, country, disco, hip-hop, jazz, metal, pop, reggae, rock), chosen on the basis of clear to ambiguous delineation in the typical sound of their genres. We feed these features into three different classifiers, namely, SVM with RBF kernel, a deep neural network, and a recurring neural network, to build separate predictive models and choosing the best performing model at the end. Predicting song popularity is particularly important for the music industry as it would allow record companies to produce better content for the masses resulting in a more competitive market.

Keywords: classifier, machine learning, music tracks, popularity, prediction

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Authors: Sanja O. Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Lidija R. Jevrić, Strahinja Z. Kovačević

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Benzimidazoles are a group of compounds with significant antibacterial, antifungal and anticancer activity. The studied compounds consist of the main benzimidazole structure with different combinations of substituens. This study is based on the two-dimensional and three-dimensional molecular modeling and calculation of molecular descriptors (physicochemical and lipophilicity descriptors) of structurally diverse benzimidazoles. Molecular modeling was carried out by using ChemBio3D Ultra version 14.0 software. The obtained 3D models were subjected to energy minimization using molecular mechanics force field method (MM2). The cutoff for structure optimization was set at a gradient of 0.1 kcal/Åmol. The obtained set of molecular descriptors was used in principal component analysis (PCA) of possible similarities and dissimilarities among the studied derivatives. After the molecular modeling, the quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) analysis was applied in order to get the mathematical models which can be used in prediction of pKb values of structurally similar benzimidazoles. The obtained models are based on statistically valid multiple linear regression (MLR) equations. The calculated cross-validation parameters indicate the high prediction ability of the established QSPR models. This study is financially supported by COST action CM1306 and the project No. 114-451-347/2015-02, financially supported by the Provincial Secretariat for Science and Technological Development of Vojvodina.

Keywords: benzimidazoles, chemometrics, molecular modeling, molecular descriptors, QSPR

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Authors: Jing Zhao, Dayong Liu, Shihao Wang, Xinghua Zhu, Delong Li

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Uhumanned Underwater Vehicles generally operate in the deep sea, which has its own unique working conditions. Lithium-ion power batteries should have the necessary stability and endurance for use as an underwater vehicle’s power source. Therefore, it is essential to accurately forecast how long lithium-ion batteries will last in order to maintain the system’s reliability and safety. In order to model and forecast lithium battery Remaining Useful Life (RUL), this research suggests a model based on Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive noise-Temporal Convolutional Net (CEEMDAN-TCN). In this study, two datasets, NASA and CALCE, which have a specific gap in capacity data fluctuation, are used to verify the model and examine the experimental results in order to demonstrate the generalizability of the concept. The experiments demonstrate the network structure’s strong universality and ability to achieve good fitting outcomes on the test set for various battery dataset types. The evaluation metrics reveal that the CEEMDAN-TCN prediction performance of TCN is 25% to 35% better than that of a single neural network, proving that feature expansion and modal decomposition can both enhance the model’s generalizability and be extremely useful in industrial settings.

Keywords: lithium-ion battery, remaining useful life, complete EEMD with adaptive noise, temporal convolutional net

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Authors: M. Abou-Amouna, A. Radwan, L. Al-kuwari, A. Hammuda, K. Al-Khalifa

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There is growing concern over increasing incidences of road accidents and consequent loss of human life in Qatar. In light to the future planned event in Qatar, World Cup 2022; Qatar should put into consideration the future deaths caused by road accidents, and past trends should be considered to give a reasonable picture of what may happen in the future. Qatar roads should be arranged and paved in a way that accommodate high capacity of the population in that time, since then there will be a huge number of visitors from the world. Qatar should also consider the risk issues of road accidents raised in that period, and plan to maintain high level to safety strategies. According to the increase in the number of road accidents in Qatar from 1995 until 2012, an analysis of elements affecting and causing road accidents will be effectively studied. This paper aims to identify and criticize the factors that have high effect on causing road accidents in the state of Qatar, and predict the total number of road accidents in Qatar 2022. Alternative methods are discussed and the most applicable ones according to the previous researches are selected for further studies. The methods that satisfy the existing case in Qatar were the multiple linear regression model (MLR) and artificial neutral network (ANN). Those methods are analyzed and their findings are compared. We conclude that by using MLR the number of accidents in 2022 will become 355,226 accidents, and by using ANN 216,264 accidents. We conclude that MLR gave better results than ANN because the artificial neutral network doesn’t fit data with large range varieties.

Keywords: road safety, prediction, accident, model, Qatar

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Authors: Melody Yin

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Concussions impact a large amount of adolescents; they make up as much as half of the diagnosed concussions in America. This research proposes a hybrid machine learning model based on the combination of human/knowledge-based domains and computer-generated feature rankings to improve the accuracy of diagnosing sports related concussion (SRC). Using a data set of symptoms collected on the sideline post-SRC events, the symptom selection criteria method has been developed by using Google AutoML's important score function to identify the top 10 symptom features. In addition, symptom domains have been introduced as another parameter, categorizing the symptoms into physical, cognitive, sleep, and emotional domains. The hybrid machine learning model has been trained with a combination of the top 10 symptoms and 4 domains. From the results, the hybrid model was the best performer for symptom resolution time prediction in 2 and 4-week thresholds. This research is a proof of concept study in the use of domains along with machine learning in order to improve concussion prediction accuracy. It is also possible that the use of domains can make the model more efficient due to reduced training time. This research examines the use of a hybrid method in predicting sports-related concussion. This achievement is based on data preprocessing, using a hybrid method to select criteria to achieve high performance.

Keywords: hybrid model, machine learning, sports related concussion, symptom resolution time

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Authors: Chia-Jung Li, Kuan-Hao Tsui

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As women age, the quality of their oocytes deteriorates irreversibly, leading to reduced fertility. To better understand the role of Ferroptosis-related genes in ovarian aging, we employed a multi-omics analysis approach, including spatial transcriptomics, single-cell RNA sequencing, human ovarian pathology, and clinical biopsies. Our study identified excess lipid peroxide accumulation in aging germ cells, metal ion accumulation via oxidative reduction, and the interaction between ferroptosis and cellular energy metabolism. We used multi-histological prediction of ferroptosis key genes to evaluate 75 patients with ovarian aging insufficiency and then analyzed changes in hub genes after supplementing with DHEA, Ubiquinol CoQ10, and Cleo-20 T3 for two months. Our results demonstrated a significant increase in TFRC, GPX4, NCOA4, and SLC3A2, which were consistent with our multi-component prediction. We theorized that these supplements increase the mitochondrial tricarboxylic acid cycle (TCA) or electron transport chain (ETC), thereby increasing antioxidant enzyme GPX4 levels and reducing lipid peroxide accumulation and ferroptosis. Overall, our findings suggest that supplementation intervention significantly improves IVF outcomes in senescent cells by enhancing metal ion and energy metabolism and enhancing oocyte quality in aging women.

Keywords: multi-omics, nutrients, ferroptosis, ovarian aging

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Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

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Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightly-distressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models, are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the two-stage model incorporating financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors has the lowest misclassification error rate. The two-stage model is more accurate than the one-stage model as its distressed cut-off indicators are adjusted according to the macroeconomic-based credit cycle index.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy

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Authors: Jongsung Kim, Daegun Han, Myungjin Lee, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim

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Recently, the frequency and magnitude of natural disasters are gradually increasing due to climate change. Especially in Korea, large-scale damage caused by heavy rainfall frequently occurs due to rapid urbanization. Therefore, this study proposed a Heavy rain Damage Risk Index (HDRI) using PSR (Pressure – State - Response) structure for heavy rain risk assessment. We constructed pressure index, state index, and response index for the risk assessment of each local government in Gyeonggi-do province, and the evaluation indices were determined by principal component analysis. The indices were standardized using the Z-score method then HDRIs were obtained for 31 local governments in the province. The HDRI is categorized into three classes, say, the safest class is 1st class. As the results, the local governments of the 1st class were 15, 2nd class 7, and 3rd class 9. From the study, we were able to identify the risk class due to the heavy rainfall for each local government. It will be useful to develop the heavy rainfall prediction function by risk class, and this was performed in this issue. Also, this risk class could be used for the decision making for efficient disaster management. Acknowledgements: This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2017R1A2B3005695).

Keywords: natural disaster, heavy rain risk assessment, HDRI, PSR

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Authors: C. E. Sutton, A. Varvani-Farahani

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Fatigue damage and life prediction of particle metal matrix composites (PMMCs) under uniaxial and multiaxial loading conditions were investigated. Three PMM composite materials of Al6061/Al2O3/20p-T6, Al6061/Al2O3/22p-T6 and Al6061/SiC/17w-T6 tested under tensile, torsion, and combined tension-torsion fatigue cycling were evaluated with various fatigue damage models. The fatigue damage models of Smith-Watson-Topper (S. W. T.), Ellyin, Brown-Miller, Fatemi-Socie, and Varvani were compared for their capability to assess the fatigue damage of materials undergoing various loading conditions. Fatigue life predication results were then evaluated by implementing material-dependent coefficients that factored in the effects of the particle reinforcement in the earlier developed Varvani model. The critical plane-energy approach incorporated the critical plane as the plane of crack initiation and early stage of crack growth. The strain energy density was calculated on the critical plane incorporating stress and strain components acting on the plane. This approach successfully evaluated fatigue damage values versus fatigue lives within a narrower band for both uniaxial and multiaxial loading conditions as compared with other damage approaches studied in this paper.

Keywords: fatigue damage, life prediction, critical plane approach, energy approach, PMM composites

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Authors: Ahmed M. AlHasem

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The Kuwaiti society has long been aware of climatic changes and their annual dates and trying to link them to astronomy in an attempt to forecast the future weather conditions. The reason for this concern is that many of the economic, social and living activities of the society depend deeply on the nature of the weather conditions directly and indirectly. In other words, Kuwaiti society, like the case of many human societies, has in the past tried to predict climatic conditions by linking them to astronomy or popular statements to indicate the timing of climate changes. Accordingly, this study was devoted to scientific investigation based on the statistical analysis of climatic data to show the accuracy and compatibility of some of the most important elements of the cultural heritage in relation to climate change and to relate it scientifically to precise climatic measurements for decades. The research has been divided into 10 topics, each topic has been focused on one legacy, whether by linking climate changes to the appearance/disappearance of star or a popular statement inherited through generations, through explain the nature and timing and thereby statistical analysis to indicate the proportion of accuracy based on official climatic data since 1962. The study's conclusion is that the relationship is weak and, in some cases, non-existent between the popular heritage and the actual climatic data. Therefore, it does not have a dependable relationship and a reliable scientific prediction between both the popular heritage and the forecast of weather conditions.

Keywords: astronomy, cultural heritage, statistical analysis, weather prediction

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Authors: Dchieche Amina, Aboulaich Rajae

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Profit and loss sharing suggests an equitable sharing of risks and profits between the parts involved in a financial transaction. Salam is a contract in which advance payment is made for goods to be delivered at a future date. The purpose of this work is to price a new contract for profit and loss sharing based on Salam contract, using Khiyar Al Ghabn which is an agreement of choice in case of misrepresent facts.

Keywords: Islamic finance, shariah compliance, profit and loss sharing, derivatives, risks, hedging, salam contract

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Authors: Shih-Wen Hsiao, Yi-Cheng Tsao

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In the field of reverse engineering and creative industries, applying 3D scanning process to obtain geometric forms of the objects is a mature and common technique. For instance, organic objects such as faces and nonorganic objects such as products could be scanned to acquire the geometric information for further application. However, although the data resolution of 3D scanning device is increasing and there are more and more abundant complementary applications, the penetration rate of 3D scanning for the public is still limited by the relative high price of the devices. On the other hand, Kinect, released by Microsoft, is known for its powerful functions, considerably low price, and complete technology and database support. Therefore, related studies can be done with the applying of Kinect under acceptable cost and data precision. Due to the fact that Kinect utilizes optical mechanism to extracting depth information, limitations are found due to the reason of the straight path of the light. Thus, various angles are required sequentially to obtain the complete 3D information of the object when applying a single Kinect for 3D scanning. The integration process which combines the 3D data from different angles by certain algorithms is also required. This sequential scanning process costs much time and the complex integration process often encounter some technical problems. Therefore, this paper aimed to apply multiple Kinects simultaneously on the field of developing a rapid 3D mannequin scan platform and proposed suggestions on the number and angles of Kinects. In the content, a method of establishing the coordination based on the relation between mannequin and the specifications of Kinect is proposed, and a suggestion of angles and number of Kinects is also described. An experiment of applying multiple Kinect on the scanning of 3D mannequin is constructed by Microsoft API, and the results show that the time required for scanning and technical threshold can be reduced in the industries of fashion and garment design.

Keywords: 3D scan, depth sensor, fashion and garment design, mannequin, multiple Kinect sensor

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Authors: Muhammad Ali

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Cyber-attacks and anomaly detection on the Internet of Things (IoT) infrastructure is emerging concern in the domain of data-driven intrusion. Rapidly increasing IoT risk is now making headlines around the world. denial of service, malicious control, data type probing, malicious operation, DDos, scan, spying, and wrong setup are attacks and anomalies that can affect an IoT system failure. Everyone talks about cyber security, connectivity, smart devices, and real-time data extraction. IoT devices expose a wide variety of new cyber security attack vectors in network traffic. For further than IoT development, and mainly for smart and IoT applications, there is a necessity for intelligent processing and analysis of data. So, our approach is too secure. We train several machine learning models that have been compared to accurately predicting attacks and anomalies on IoT systems, considering IoT applications, with ANOVA-based feature selection with fewer prediction models to evaluate network traffic to help prevent IoT devices. The machine learning (ML) algorithms that have been used here are KNN, SVM, NB, D.T., and R.F., with the most satisfactory test accuracy with fast detection. The evaluation of ML metrics includes precision, recall, F1 score, FPR, NPV, G.M., MCC, and AUC & ROC. The Random Forest algorithm achieved the best results with less prediction time, with an accuracy of 99.98%.

Keywords: machine learning, analysis of variance, Internet of Thing, network security, intrusion detection

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Authors: Walid Moudani

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The healthcare environment is generally perceived as being information rich yet knowledge poor. However, there is a lack of effective analysis tools to discover hidden relationships and trends in data. In fact, valuable knowledge can be discovered from application of data mining techniques in healthcare system. In this study, a proficient methodology for the extraction of significant patterns from the coronary heart disease warehouses for heart attack prediction, which unfortunately continues to be a leading cause of mortality in the whole world, has been presented. For this purpose, we propose to enumerate dynamically the optimal subsets of the reduced features of high interest by using rough sets technique associated to dynamic programming. Therefore, we propose to validate the classification using Random Forest (RF) decision tree to identify the risky heart disease cases. This work is based on a large amount of data collected from several clinical institutions based on the medical profile of patient. Moreover, the experts’ knowledge in this field has been taken into consideration in order to define the disease, its risk factors, and to establish significant knowledge relationships among the medical factors. A computer-aided system is developed for this purpose based on a population of 525 adults. The performance of the proposed model is analyzed and evaluated based on set of benchmark techniques applied in this classification problem.

Keywords: multi-classifier decisions tree, features reduction, dynamic programming, rough sets

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Authors: Sagri Sharma

Abstract:

Analysis of diseases integrating multi-factors increases the complexity of the problem and therefore, development of frameworks for the analysis of diseases is an issue that is currently a topic of intense research. Due to the inter-dependence of the various parameters, the use of traditional methodologies has not been very effective. Consequently, newer methodologies are being sought to deal with the problem. Supervised Learning Algorithms are commonly used for performing the prediction on previously unseen data. These algorithms are commonly used for applications in fields ranging from image analysis to protein structure and function prediction and they get trained using a known dataset to come up with a predictor model that generates reasonable predictions for the response to new data. Gene expression profiles generated by DNA analysis experiments can be quite complex since these experiments can involve hypotheses involving entire genomes. The application of well-known machine learning algorithm - Support Vector Machine - to analyze the expression levels of thousands of genes simultaneously in a timely, automated and cost effective way is thus used. The objectives to undertake the presented work are development of a methodology to identify genes relevant to Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) from gene expression dataset utilizing supervised learning algorithms and statistical evaluations along with development of a predictive framework that can perform classification tasks on new, unseen data.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, biomarker, gene expression datasets, hepatocellular carcinoma, machine learning, supervised learning algorithms, support vector machine

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Authors: Ahmad Shahin, Walid Moudani, Ali Bekraki

Abstract:

This research aims at presenting a predictive data mining model to handle an accurate diagnosis of acute appendicitis with patients for the purpose of maximizing the health service quality, minimizing morbidity/mortality, and reducing cost. However, acute appendicitis is the most common disease which requires timely accurate diagnosis and needs surgical intervention. Although the treatment of acute appendicitis is simple and straightforward, its diagnosis is still difficult because no single sign, symptom, laboratory or image examination accurately confirms the diagnosis of acute appendicitis in all cases. This contributes in increasing morbidity and negative appendectomy. In this study, the authors propose to generate an accurate model in prediction of patients with acute appendicitis which is based, firstly, on the segmentation technique associated to ABC algorithm to segment the patients; secondly, on applying fuzzy logic to process the massive volume of heterogeneous and noisy data (age, sex, fever, white blood cell, neutrophilia, CRP, urine, ultrasound, CT, appendectomy, etc.) in order to express knowledge and analyze the relationships among data in a comprehensive manner; and thirdly, on applying dynamic programming technique to reduce the number of data attributes. The proposed model is evaluated based on a set of benchmark techniques and even on a set of benchmark classification problems of osteoporosis, diabetes and heart obtained from the UCI data and other data sources.

Keywords: healthcare management, acute appendicitis, data mining, classification, decision tree

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Authors: Akm Shahidullah

Abstract:

This paper assessed the medicinal plants production and related entrepreneurial and management aspects with a focus to understand the present medicinal plants-based supply chain of Bangladesh. It delineated the overall supply chain and the extent of benefit that the plant-producingagrientrepreneursderive out of the existing system of the chain. The key objective was to put forward innovative supply chain strategiesthatcan leverage the benefit of the rural farmer-entrepreneur of medicinal plants. A field-based investigation was carried out in the Natore district of northwest Bangladesh, where a total of 225 farmers and households from eight villages were engaged in the production of medicinal plant species. The research had a survey with the agrientrepreneurs of two of those villages and focus group discussions at a union level to gather information about the price, buyers, seasonality, and overall supply infrastructure and trading mechanisms of the plant products. The research also gathered explanations on the overall supply chain system of the plants and plant-based processed products through key informant interviews with the local and regional selling agents, stockists, wholesalers, and secondary processors. The findings revealed that, in the existing supply chain system, the primary and wholesale secondary markets were mostly dominated by middlemen who cause market distortions and inflated prices due to a lack of coordination between the primary producers and secondary processors. The discoordination and inefficiencies in the supply chain system could be offset by the producer-processor relationship integration that could result in a multitude of benefits to both the parties in terms of price, quality, lead time, and overall control of the supply chain. Therefore, to ensure the growth of medicinal plants production, the industry users, secondary processors, and policy stakeholders should ensure that the primary producers get the fair share of the benefit; the producer-processor relationship integration in the supply chain offers to ensure that fairness with maximum producer surplus.

Keywords: medicinal-plants, agrientrepreneur, supply chain, relationship integration, Bangladesh

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Authors: Alexander Hedlund, Anna-Karin Stengard, Olof Björkqvist

Abstract:

A step towards reducing greenhouse gases and energy consumption is to collaborate with the energy system between several industries. This work is based on a case study on integration of pulp and paper mills with a district heating system in Sundsvall, Sweden. Present research shows that it is possible to make a significant reduction in the electricity demand in the mechanical pulping process. However, the profitability of the efficiency measures could be an issue, as the excess steam recovered from the refiners decreases with the electricity consumption. A consequence will be that the fuel demand for steam production will increase. If the fuel price is similar to the electricity price it would reduce the profit of such a project. If the paper mill can be integrated with a district heating system, it is possible to upgrade excess heat from a nearby kraft pulp mill to process steam via the district heating system in order to avoid the additional fuel need. The concept is investigated by using a simulation model describing both the mass and energy balance as well as the operating margin. Three scenarios were analyzed: reference, electricity reduction and energy substitution. The simulation show that the total input to the system is lowest in the Energy substitution scenario. Additionally, in the Energy substitution scenario the steam from the incineration boiler covers not only the steam shortage but also a part of the steam produced using the biofuel boiler, the cooling tower connected to the incineration boiler is no longer needed and the excess heat can cover the whole district heating load during the whole year. The study shows a substantial economic advantage if all stakeholders act together as one system. However, costs and benefits are unequally shared between the actors. This means that there is a need for new business models in order to share the system costs and benefits.

Keywords: energy system, cooperation, simulation method, excess heat, district heating

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Authors: Ajai Singh

Abstract:

Simulation of hydrological processes at the watershed outlet through modelling approach is essential for proper planning and implementation of appropriate soil conservation measures in Damodar Barakar catchment, Hazaribagh, India where soil erosion is a dominant problem. This study quantifies the parametric uncertainty involved in simulation of stream flow using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a watershed scale model and Radial Basis Neural Network (RBNN), an artificial neural network model. Both the models were calibrated and validated based on measured stream flow and quantification of the uncertainty in SWAT model output was assessed using ‘‘Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm’’ (SUFI-2). Though both the model predicted satisfactorily, but RBNN model performed better than SWAT with R2 and NSE values of 0.92 and 0.92 during training, and 0.71 and 0.70 during validation period, respectively. Comparison of the results of the two models also indicates a wider prediction interval for the results of the SWAT model. The values of P-factor related to each model shows that the percentage of observed stream flow values bracketed by the 95PPU in the RBNN model as 91% is higher than the P-factor in SWAT as 87%. In other words the RBNN model estimates the stream flow values more accurately and with less uncertainty. It could be stated that RBNN model based on simple input could be used for estimation of monthly stream flow, missing data, and testing the accuracy and performance of other models.

Keywords: SWAT, RBNN, SUFI 2, bootstrap technique, stream flow, simulation

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Authors: Adrizal, Irsan Ryanto, Sri Juwita, Adika Sugara, Tino Bapirco

Abstract:

The objective of the research was to study the influence of the inclusion of the cabbage waste into a buffalo rations made of sugarcane waste on the feed formula and characteristic of complete feed silage. Research carried out a two-stage i.e. the feed formulation and experiment of making complete feed silage. Feed formulation is done by linear programming. Data input is the price of feed stuffs and their nutrient contents as well as requirements for rations, while the output is the use of each feed stuff and the price of complete feed. The experiment of complete feed silage was done by a completely random design 4 x 4. The treatments were 4 inclusion levels of the cabbage waste i.e. 0%,(T1) 5%(T2), 10%(T3) and 15% (T4), with 4 replications. The result of feed formulation for T1 was cabbage (0%), sugarcane top (17.9%), bagasse (33.3%), Molasses (5.0%), cabagge (0%), Thitonia sp (10.0%), rice brand (2.7%), palm kernel cake (20.0%), corn meal (9.1%), bond meal (1.5%) and salt (0.5%). The formula of T2 was cabagge (5%), sugarcane top (1.7%), bagasse (45.2%), Molasses (5.0%), , Thitonia sp (10.0%), rice brand (3.6%), palm kernel cake (20.0%), corn meal (7.5%), bond meal (1.5%) and salt (0.5%). The formula of T3 was cabbage (10%), sugarcane top (0%), bagasse (45.3%), Molasses (5.0%), Thitonia sp (10.0%), rice brand (3.8%), palm kernel cake (20.0%), corn meal (3.9%), bond meal (1.5%) and salt(0.5%). The formula of T4 was cabagge (15.0%), sugarcane top (0%), bagasse (44.1%), Molasses (5.0%), Thitonia sp (10.0%), rice brand (3.9%), palm kernel cake (20.0%), corn meal (0%), bond meal (1.5%) and salt (0.5%). An increase in the level of inclusion of the cabbage waste can decrease the cost of rations. The cost of rations (IDR/kg on DM basis) were 1442, 1367, 1333, and 1300 respectively. The rations formula were not significantly (P > 0.05) influent the on fungal colonies, smell, texture and color of the complete ration silage, but the pH increased significantly (P < 0.05). It concluded that inclusion of cabbage waste can minimize the cost of buffalo ration, without decreasing the silage quality of complete feed.

Keywords: buffalo, cabbage, complete feed, sillage characteristic, sugarcane waste

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