Search results for: shocks

Authors: M. Madheswaran, A. R. Prashant, S. Ramakrishna, V. Ramesh Naidu, P. Govindan, P. Aravindakshan

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Shock Response spectrum (SRS) tests are one of the tests that are conducted on some critical systems of spacecraft as part of environmental testing. The SRS tests are conducted to simulate the pyro shocks that occur during launch phases as well as during deployment of spacecraft appendages. Some of the methods to carryout SRS tests are pyro technique method, impact hammer method, drop shock method and using electro dynamic shakers. The pyro technique, impact hammer and drop shock methods are open loop tests, whereas SRS testing using electrodynamic shaker is a controlled closed loop test. SRS testing using electrodynamic shaker offers various advantages such as simple test set up, better controllability and repeatability. However, it is important to devise a a proper test methodology so that safety of the electro dynamic shaker and that of test specimen are not compromised. This paper discusses the challenges that are involved in conducting SRS tests, shaker validation and the necessary precautions to be considered. Approach involved in choosing various test parameters like synthesis waveform, spectrum convergence level, etc., are discussed. A case study of SRS test conducted on an optical payload of Indian Geo stationary spacecraft is presented.

Keywords: maxi-max spectrum, SRS (shock response spectrum), SDOf (single degree of freedom), wavelet synthesis

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Authors: Gabriele Iannotta

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This paper investigates credit cycles by means of an experiment based on a Kiyotaki & Moore (1997) model with heterogeneous expectations. The aim is to examine how a credit squeeze caused by high lender-level risk perceptions affects the real prices of a collateralised asset, with a special focus on the macroeconomic implications of rising price volatility in terms of total welfare and the number of bankruptcies that occur. To do that, a learning-to-forecast experiment (LtFE) has been run where participants are asked to predict the future price of land and then rewarded based on the accuracy of their forecasts. The setting includes one lender and five borrowers in each of the twelve sessions split between six control groups (G1) and six treatment groups (G2). The only difference is that while in G1 the lender always satisfies borrowers’ loan demand (bankruptcies permitting), in G2 he/she closes the entire credit market in case three or more bankruptcies occur in the previous round. Experimental results show that negative risk-driven supply shocks amplify the volatility of collateral prices. This uncertainty worsens the agents’ ability to predict the future value of land and, as a consequence, the number of defaults increases and the total welfare deteriorates.

Keywords: Behavioural Macroeconomics, Credit Cycle, Experimental Economics, Heterogeneous Expectations, Learning-to-Forecast Experiment

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Authors: Yun-Ru Tsai, Jo-Hui Lin

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The cultural interactions between tourists and destination communities have received increased attention. Tourists play an important role in constructing a rewarding intercultural experience and cultural understanding. Cultural literacy is the ability for tourists to negotiate different cultures, this research aimed to develop a measurement of Tourist Cultural Literacy (TCL), the result provides a theoretical framework to assess how tourists interact with different cultural destinations. A pilot qualitative research was conducted in order to generate the initial items. In this study, the procedure of developing the TCL scale was divided into two parts. First, an exploratory factor analysis was conducted, a 25-item TCL scale was developed and six factors were identified: cultural sensitivity, appreciation of the culture, respect for the culture, knowledge of the culture, participate in the culture, and empathy for the culture. Second, confirmatory factor analyses and structural equation modeling were employed, the six-factor model was verified, and was proven to have good fit, reliability, convergent validity, discriminant validity, and criterion-related validity. The study provides managerial implications for tourist management and education, the popularization of TCL might increase the respect and understanding between tourists and local societies as well as decrease the cultural shocks and negative social-cultural impacts derived from tourism activities, thereby reducing the maintenance cost of management and allowing tourists to obtain a better cultural experience. Future research suggestions are also provided.

Keywords: cultural literacy, cultural tourism, scale development, tourism contact

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Authors: Robert P. Dufresne, Hamid Arabzadeh

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The current study investigates the effectiveness of a new form of permanent baseboard insulators with an umbrella action, hereinafter referred to as Coronary Insulator, in supporting and protecting the assembly of electrodes immersed in an electrolytic cell and in increasing the lifespan of the lateral sides of the electrolytic cell, in both electro-winning and electro-refinery method. The advantages of using a coronary insulator in addition to the top capping board (equipotential insulator) were studied compared to the conventional assembly of an electrolytic cell. Then, a thermal imaging technique was utilized during high-temperature thermal (heat transfer) tests for sample cell walls with and without coronary insulators in their assembly to show the effectiveness of coronary insulators in protecting the cell wall under extreme conditions. It was shown that, unlike the conventional assembly, which is highly prone to damages to the cell wall under thermal shocks, the presence of coronary insulator can significantly increase the level of protection of the cell due to their ultra-high thermal and chemical resistance, as well as decreasing the replacement frequency of insulators to almost zero. Besides, the results of the study showed that the test assembly with the coronary insulator provides better consistency in positioning and, subsequently, better contact, compared to the conventional method, which reduces the chance of electric short-circuit in the system.

Keywords: capping board, coronary insulator, electrolytic cell, thermal shock.

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Authors: Manoj Malviya, Shubham Shinde

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The present study focuses on the determination of torsional stiffness of a space frame chassis and comparison of elements used in the Finite Element Analysis of frame. The study also discusses various concepts and design aspects of a space frame chassis with the emphasis on their applicability in BAJA SAE vehicles. Torsional stiffness is a very important factor that determines the chassis strength, vehicle control, and handling. Therefore, it is very important to determine the torsional stiffness of the vehicle before designing an optimum chassis so that it should not fail during extreme conditions. This study determines the torsional stiffness of frame with respect to suspension shocks, roll-stiffness and anti-roll bar rates. A spring model is developed to study the effects of suspension parameters. The engine greatly contributes to torsional stiffness, and therefore, its effects on torsional stiffness need to be considered. Deflections in the tire have not been considered in the present study. The proper element shape should be selected to analyze the effects of various loadings on chassis while implementing finite element methods. The study compares the accuracy of results and computational time for different element types. Shape functions of these elements are also discussed. Modelling methodology is discussed for the multibody analysis of chassis integrated with suspension arms and engine. Proper boundary conditions are presented so as to replicate the real life conditions.

Keywords: space frame chassis, torsional stiffness, multi-body analysis of chassis, element selection

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Authors: C. Bala Prashanth Reddy, B. Abhinay, C. Sreekar, D. V. Shobhana Priscilla

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The project aims in designing an emergency pacemaker which is capable of giving shocks to a human heart which has stopped working suddenly. A pacemaker is a machine commonly used by cardiologists. This machine is used in order to shock a human’s heart back into usage. The way the heart works is that there are small cells called pacemakers sending electrical pulses to cardiac muscles that tell the heart when to pump blood. When these electrical pulses stop, the heart stops beating. When this happens, a pacemaker is used to shock the heart muscles and the pacemakers back into action. The way this is achieved is by rubbing the two panels of the pacemaker together to create an adequate electrical current, and then the heart gets back to the normal state. The project aims in designing a system which is capable of continuously displaying the heart beat and blood pressure of a person on LCD. The concerned doctor gets the heart beat and also the blood pressure details continuously through the GSM Modem in the form of SMS alerts. In case of abnormal condition, the doctor sends message format regarding the amount of electric shock needed. Automatically the microcontroller gives the input to the pacemaker which in turn gives the shock to the patient. Heart beat monitor and display system is a portable and a best replacement for the old model stethoscope which is less efficient. The heart beat rate is calculated manually using stethoscope where the probability of error is high because the heart beat rate lies in the range of 70 to 90 per minute whose occurrence is less than 1 sec, so this device can be considered as a very good alternative instead of a stethoscope.

Keywords: missing R wave, PWM, demand pacemaker, heart

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Authors: Desta Brhanu Gebrehiwot

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The purpose of this review was to analyze the overall or combined effect of scholarly studies conducted on the impacts of Food for work (FFW) and Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) on farm households’ livelihood (agricultural investment on the adoption of fertilizer, food security, livestock holding, nutrition and its’ disincentive effect) in Ethiopia. In addition, to make a critical assessment of the internal and external validity of the existing studies, the review also indicates the possibility to redesign the program. The method of selecting eligible studies for review was PICOS (Participants, Intervention, Comparison, Outcomes, and Settings) framework. The method of analysis was the fixed effects model under Meta-Analysis. The findings of this systematic review confirm the overall or combined positive significant impact of PSNP on fertilizer adoption (combined point estimate=0.015, standard error=0.005, variance=0.000, lower limit 0.004 up to the upper limit=0.026, z-value=2.726, and p-value=0.006). And the program had a significant positive impact on the child nutrition of rural households and had no significant disincentive effect. However, the program had no significant impact on livestock holdings. Thus, PSNP is important for households whose livelihood depends on rain-fed agriculture and are exposed to rainfall shocks. Thus, better to integrate the program into the national agricultural policy. In addition, most of the studies suggested that PSNP needs more attention to the design and targeting issued in order to be effective and efficient in social protection.

Keywords: meta-analysis, fixed effect model, PSNP, rural-livelihood, Ethiopia

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Authors: Rahmoune Abdelhaq

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Systemic risk is a key concern for central banks charged with safeguarding overall financial stability. In this work, we investigate how systemic risk is affected by the structure of the financial system. We construct banking systems that are composed of a number of banks that are connected by interbank linkages. We then vary the key parameters that define the structure of the financial system — including its level of capitalization, the degree to which banks are connected, the size of interbank exposures and the degree of concentration of the system — and analyses the influence of these parameters on the likelihood of contagious (knock-on) defaults. First, we find that the better-capitalized banks are, the more resilient is the banking system against contagious defaults and this effect is non-linear. Second, the effect of the degree of connectivity is non-monotonic, that is, initially a small increase in connectivity increases the contagion effect; but after a certain threshold value, connectivity improves the ability of a banking system to absorb shocks. Third, the size of interbank liabilities tends to increase the risk of knock-on default, even if banks hold capital against such exposures. Fourth, more concentrated banking systems are shown to be prone to larger systemic risk, all else equal. In an extension to the main analysis, we study how liquidity effects interact with banking structure to produce a greater chance of systemic breakdown. We finally consider how the risk of contagion might depend on the degree of asymmetry (tier) inherent in the structure of the banking system. A number of our results have important implications for public policy, which this paper also draws out. This paper also discusses why bank risk management is needed to get the optimal one.

Keywords: financial stability, contagion, liquidity risk, optimal risk

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Authors: P. Abtahi, B. Samali

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Façade panels of various shapes, weights, and connections usually act as a barrier between the indoor and outdoor environments. They also play a major role in enhancing the aesthetics of building structures. They are attached by different types of connections to the primary structure or inner panels in double skin façade skins. Structural buildings designed to withstand seismic shocks have been undergoing a critical appraisal in recent years, with the emphasis changing from ‘strength’ to ‘performance’. Performance based design and analysis have found their way into research, development, and practice of earthquake engineering, particularly after the 1994 Northridge and 1995 Kobe earthquakes. The design performance of facades as non-structural elements has now focused mainly on evaluating the damage sustained by façade frames with fixed connections, not movable ones. This paper will review current design standards for structural buildings, including the performance of structural and non-structural components during earthquake excitations in order to overview and evaluate the damage assessment and behaviour of various façade systems in building structures during seismic activities. The proposed solutions for each facade system will be discussed case by case to evaluate their potential for incorporation with newly designed connections. Finally, Double-Skin-Facade systems can potentially be combined with movable facade technology, although other glazing systems would require minor to major changes in their design before being integrated into the system.

Keywords: building performance, earthquake engineering, glazing system, movable façade technology

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Authors: Shu-Han Hsu, Jiho Yoon, Chwen Sheu

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With the rapidly growing of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency, various industries which include tourism has added in cryptocurrency as the payment method of their transaction. More and more tourism companies accept payments in digital currency for flights, hotel reservations, transportation, and more. For travellers and tourists, using cryptocurrency as a payment method has become a way to circumvent costs and prevent risks. Understanding volatility dynamics and interdependencies between standard currency and cryptocurrency is important for appropriate financial risk management to assist policy-makers and investors in marking more informed decisions. The purpose of this paper has been to understand and explain the risk spillover effects between six major cryptocurrencies and the top ten most traded standard currencies. Using data for the daily closing price of cryptocurrencies and currency exchange rates from 7 August 2015 to 10 December 2019, with 1,133 observations. The diagonal BEKK model was used to analyze the co-volatility spillover effects between cryptocurrency returns and exchange rate returns, which are measures of how the shocks to returns in different assets affect each other’s subsequent volatility. The empirical results show there are co-volatility spillover effects between the cryptocurrency returns and GBP/USD, CNY/USD and MXN/USD exchange rate returns. Therefore, currencies (British Pound, Chinese Yuan and Mexican Peso) and cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Tether, Litecoin and Stellar) are suitable for constructing a financial portfolio from an optimal risk management perspective and also for dynamic hedging purposes.

Keywords: blockchain, co-volatility effects, cryptocurrencies, diagonal BEKK model, exchange rates, risk spillovers

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Authors: Anil Giri, Kyle Lovercamp, Sankalp Sharma

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Farm level incomes fluctuate significantly due to extreme weather events such as drought. In the light of recent extreme weather events it is important to understand the implications of extreme weather events, flood and drought, on farm level incomes. This study examines the variation in farm level incomes for the United States in drought and no- drought years. Factoring heterogeneity in different enterprises (crop, livestock) and geography this paper analyzes the impact of drought in farm level incomes at state and national level. Livestock industry seems to be affected more by the lag in production of input feed for production, crops, as preliminary results show. Furthermore, preliminary results also show that while crop producers are not affected much due to drought, as price and quantity effect worked on opposite direction with same magnitude, that was not the case for livestock and horticulture enterprises. Results also showed that even when price effect was not as high the crop insurance component helped absorb much of shock for crop producers. Finally, the effect was heterogeneous for different states more on the coastal states compared Midwest region. This study should generate a lot of interest from policy makers across the world as some countries are actively seeking to increase subsidies in their agriculture sector. This study shows how subsidies absorb the shocks for one enterprise more than others. Finally, this paper should also be able to give an insight to economists to design/recommend policies such that it is optimal given the production level of different enterprises in different countries.

Keywords: farm level income, United States, crop, livestock

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Authors: Takhul Bakhtiar

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In South Sulawesi Province, there is an active Walanae Fault causing this area to frequently experience earthquakes. This study aims to determine the level of seismicity of the earthquake in order to obtain the potential for earthquakes in the future. The estimation of the potential for earthquakes is then made a scenario model determine the estimated level of shocks as an effort to mitigate earthquake disasters in the region. The method used in this study is the Gutenberg Richter Method through the statistical likelihood approach. This study used earthquake data in the South Sulawesi region in 1972 - 2022. The research location is located at the coordinates of 3.5° – 5.5° South Latitude and 119.5° – 120.5° East Longitude and divided into two segments, namely the northern segment at the coordinates of 3.5° – 4.5° South Latitude and 119,5° – 120,5° East Longitude then the southern segment with coordinates of 4.5° – 5.5° South Latitude and 119,5° – 120.5° East Longitude. This study uses earthquake parameters with a magnitude > 1 and a depth < 50 km. The results of the analysis show that the potential for earthquakes in the next ten years with a magnitude of M = 7 in the northern segment is estimated at 98.81% with an estimated shock level of VI-VII MMI around the cities of Pare-Pare, Barru, Pinrang and Soppeng then IV - V MMI in the cities of Bulukumba, Selayar, Makassar and Gowa. In the southern segment, the potential for earthquakes in the next ten years with a magnitude of M = 7 is estimated at 32.89% with an estimated VI-VII MMI shock level in the cities of Bulukumba, Selayar, Makassar and Gowa, then III-IV MMI around the cities of Pare-Pare, Barru, Pinrang and Soppeng.

Keywords: Gutenberg Richter, likelihood method, seismicity, shakemap and MMI scale

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Authors: Gordana Kordić, Petra Palić

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The European countries that during the past two decades based their exchange rate regimes on currency board arrangement (CBA) are usually analysed from the perspective of corner solution choice’s stabilisation effects. There is an open discussion on the positive and negative background of a strict exchange rate regime choice, although it should be seen as part of the transition process towards the monetary union membership. The focus of the paper is on the Baltic countries that after two decades of a rigid exchange rate arrangement and strongly influenced by global crisis are finishing their path towards the euro zone. Besides the stabilising capacity, the CBA is highly vulnerable regime, with limited developing potential. The rigidity of the exchange rate (and monetary) system, despite the ensured credibility, do not leave enough (or any) space for the adjustment and/or active crisis management. Still, the Baltics are in a process of recovery, with fiscal consolidation measures combined with (painful and politically unpopular) measures of internal devaluation. Today, two of them (Estonia and Latvia) are members of euro zone, fulfilling their ultimate transition targets, but de facto exchanging one fixed regime with another. The paper analyses the challenges for the CBA in unstable environment since the fixed regimes rely on imported stability and are sensitive to external shocks. With limited monetary instruments, these countries were oriented to the fiscal policies and used a combination of internal devaluation and tax policy measures. Despite their rather quick recovery, our second goal is to analyse the long term influence that the measures had on the national economy.

Keywords: currency board arrangement, internal devaluation, exchange rate regime, great recession

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Authors: Inese Tenberga

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Undoubtedly, the focus of the present capitalist system of finance has shifted from the concept of productivity of money to the ‘cult of money’, which is characterized by such notions as speculative activity, squander, self-profit, vested interest, etc. The author is certain that a civilized society cannot follow this economic path any longer and therefore suggests that one solution would be to integrate the Islamic financial model in the banking sector of the EU to overcome its economic vulnerability and structurally transform its economies or build resilience against shocks and crisis. The researcher analyses the Islamic financial model, which is providing the basis for the concept of non-productivity of money, and proposes to consider it as a new paradigm of economic thinking. The author argues that it seeks to establish a broad-based economic well-being with an optimum rate of economic growth, socio-economic justice, equitable distribution of income and wealth. Furthermore, the author analyses and proposes to use the experience of member states of the Islamic Development Bank for the formation of a new EU interest free banking. It is offered to create within the EU banking system a credit sector and investment sector respectively. As a part of the latter, it is recommended to separate investment banks specializing in speculative investments and non­speculative investment banks. Meanwhile, understanding of the idea of Islamic banking exclusively from the perspective of the manner of yielding profit that differs from credit banking, without considering the legal, social, ethical guidelines of Islam impedes to value objectively the advantages of this type of financial activities at the non-Islamic jurisdictions. However, the author comes to the conclusion the imperative of justice and virtue, which is inherent to all of us, exists regardless of religion. The author concludes that the global community should adopt the experience of the Muslim countries and focus on the Islamic banking model.

Keywords: credit sector, EU banking system, investment sector, Islamic banking

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Authors: Michele Catalano, Jacopo Di Domenico, Luca Riccetti, Andrea Teglio

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We develop a data-driven agent based model (ABM) for the Italian economy. We calibrate the model for the initial condition and parameters. As a preliminary step, we replicate the Monte-Carlo simulation for the Austrian economy. Then, we evaluate the dynamic properties of the model: the long-run equilibrium and the allocative efficiency in terms of disequilibrium patterns arising in the search and matching process for final goods, capital, intermediate goods, and credit markets. In this perspective, we use a randomized initial condition approach. We perform a robustness analysis perturbing the system for different parameter setups. We explore the empirical properties of the model using a rolling window forecast exercise from 2010 to 2022 to observe the model’s forecasting ability in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. We perform an analysis of the properties of the model with a different number of agents, that is, with different scales of the model compared to the real economy. The model generally displays transient dynamics that properly fit macroeconomic data regarding forecasting ability. We stress the model with a large set of shocks, namely interest policy, fiscal policy, and exogenous factors, such as external foreign demand for export. In this way, we can explore the most exposed sectors of the economy. Finally, we modify the technology mix of the various sectors and, consequently, the underlying input-output sectoral interdependence to stress the economy and observe the long-run projections. In this way, we can include in the model the generation of endogenous crisis due to the implied structural change, technological unemployment, and potential lack of aggregate demand creating the condition for cyclical endogenous crises reproduced in this artificial economy.

Keywords: agent-based models, behavioral macro, macroeconomic forecasting, micro data

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Authors: B. N. Emenyeonu

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Initially identified as sensationalism in the eras of yellow journalism and tabloidization, the inclusion of news which shocks or provokes strong emotional responses among readers, viewers, and browsers has not only remained a persistent feature of journalism but has also seemingly escalated in the current climate of digital and social media. Whether in the relentless revelation of scandals in high places, profiles on people displaced by sporadic wars or natural disasters, gruesome accounts of trucks plowing into pedestrians in a city centre, or the coverage of mourners paying tributes to victims of a mass shooting, mainstream, and digital media are often awash with tragedy, tears, and trauma. While it may aim at inspiring sympathy, outrage, or even remedial reactions, it would appear that the deluge of grief and misery in the news merely generates in the audience a feeling that borders on hearing or seeing too much to care or act. This feeling also appears to be accentuated by the dizzying diffusion of social media news and views, most of whose authenticity is not easily verifiable. Through a survey of 400 regular consumers of news and an in-depth interview of 10 news managers in selected media organizations across the Middle East, this study therefore investigates public attitude to the profusion of bad news in mainstream and digital media. Among other targets, it examines whether the profusion of bad news generates empathy fatigue among the audience and, if so, whether there is any association between biographic variables (profession, age, and gender) and an inclination to empathy fatigue. It also seeks to identify which categories of bad news and media are most likely to drag the audience into indifference. In conclusion, the study discusses the implications of the findings for mass-mediated advocacies such as campaigns against conflicts, corruption, nuclear threats, terrorism, gun violence, sexual crimes, and human trafficking, among other threats to humanity.

Keywords: digital media, empathy fatigue, media campaigns, news selection

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Authors: Farhad Reyazat, Richard Werner

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This paper contributes to the existent literature by developing a framework that explains how to monitor potential threats to banking sector stability. The study explores structural vulnerabilities at the country level, but also look at bilateral exposures within a network context. The study contributes in analysing of the European banking systemic risk at aggregated level, which integrates the characteristics of bank size, and interconnectedness relative to the size of the economy which ultimate risk belong to, taking to account the concentration ratio of the banking industry within the whole economy. The nature of the systemic risk depends on the interplay of the network topology with the nature of financial transactions over the network, assets and buffer stemming from bank size, correlations, and the nature of the shocks to the financial system. The study’s results illustrate the contribution of banks’ size, size of economy and concentration of counterparty exposures to a given country’s banks in explaining its systemic importance, how much the banking network depends on a few traditional hubs activities and the changes of this dependencies over the last 9 years. The role of few of traditional hubs such as Swiss banks and British Banks and also Irish banks- where the financial sector is fairly new and grew strongly between 1990s till 2008- take the fourth position on 2014 reducing the relative size since 2006 where they had the first position. In-degree concentration index analysis in the study shows concentration index of banking network was not changed since financial crisis 2007-8. In-degree concentration index on first quarter of 2014 indicates that US, UK and Germany together, getting over 70% of the network exposures. The result of comparing the in-degree concentration index with 2007-4Q, shows the same group having over 70% of the network exposure, however the UK getting more important role in the hub and the market share of US and Germany are slightly diminished.

Keywords: systemic risk, counterparty risk, financial stability, interconnectedness, banking concentration, european banks risk, network effect on systemic risk, concentration risk

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Authors: Ignatius Madu

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The study aims at assessing the environmental and socioeconomic determinants of climate change resilience in rural Nigeria. This is necessary because researches and development efforts on building climate change resilience of rural areas in developing countries are usually made without the knowledge of the impacts of the inherent rural characteristics that determine resilient capacities of the households. This has, in many cases, led to costly mistakes, delayed responses, inaccurate outcomes, and other difficulties. Consequently, this assessment becomes crucial not only to policymakers and people living in risk-prone environments in rural areas but also to fill the research gap. To achieve the aim, secondary data were obtained from the Annual Abstract of Statistics 2017, LSMS-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture and General Household Survey Panel 2015/2016, and National Agriculture Sample Survey (NASS), 2010/2011.Resilience was calculated by weighting and adding the adaptive, absorptive and anticipatory measures of households variables aggregated at state levels and then regressed against rural environmental and socioeconomic characteristics influencing it. From the regression, the coefficients of the variables were used to compute the impacts of the variables using the Stochastic Regression of Impacts on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) Model. The results showed that the northern States are generally low in resilient indices and are impacted less by the development indicators. The major determining factors are percentage of non-poor, environmental protection, road transport development, landholding, agricultural input, population density, dependency ratio (inverse), household asserts, education and maternal care. The paper concludes that any effort to a successful resilient building in rural areas of the country should first address these key factors that enhance rural development and wellbeing since it is better to take action before shocks take place.

Keywords: climate change resilience; spatial impacts; STIRPAT model; Nigeria

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Authors: Mohamed M. Mashaly, Ahmed M. F. El Shiwi

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Background: Shoulder impingement syndrome is an encroachment of subacromial tissues, rotator cuff, subacromial bursa, and the long head of the biceps tendon, as a result of narrowing of the subacromial space. Activities requiring repetitive or sustained use of the arms over head often predispose the rotator cuff tendon to injury. Purpose: To compare between Combined effect therapeutic exercises and Shockwave therapy versus therapeutic exercises and phonophoresis in the treatment of shoulder impingement syndrome. Methods: Thirty patients diagnosed as shoulder impingement syndrome stage II Neer classification due to mechanical causes. Patients were randomly distributed into two equal groups. The first group consisted of 15 patients with a mean age of (45.46+8.64) received therapeutic exercises (stretching exercise of posterior shoulder capsule and strengthening exercises of shoulder muscles) and shockwave therapy (6000 shocks, 2000/session, 3 sessions, 2 weeks apart, 0.22mJ/mm^2) years. The second group consisted of 15 patients with a mean age of 46.26 (+ 8.05) received same therapeutic exercises and phonophoresis (3 times per week, each other day, for 4 consecutive weeks). Patients were evaluated pretreatment and post treatment for shoulder pain severity, shoulder functional disability, shoulder flexion, abduction and internal rotation motions. Results: Patients of both groups showed significant improvement in all the measured variables. In between groups difference the shock wave group showed a significant improvement in all measured variables than phonophoresis group. Interpretation/Conclusion: Combined effect of therapeutic exercises and shock wave were more effective than therapeutic exercises and phonophoresis on decreasing shoulder pain severity, shoulder functional disability, increasing in shoulder flexion, abduction, internal rotation in patients with shoulder impingement syndrome.

Keywords: shoulder impingement syndrome, therapeutic exercises, shockwave, phonophoresis

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Authors: Alan Lai, Wilson Yik

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With rapid urbanization, there has been a dramatic increase in global urban population in Asia and over half of population in Asia will live in urban regions in the near future. Facing with increasing exposure to climate-related stresses and shocks, most of the Asian cities will very likely to experience more frequent heat waves and flooding with rising sea levels, particularly the coastal cities will grapple for intense typhoons and storm surges. These climate changes have severe impacts in urban areas at the costs of infrastructure and population, for example, human health, wellbeing and high risks of dengue fever, malaria and diarrheal disease. With the increasing prominence of adaptation to climate changes, there have been changes in corresponding policies. Smaller cities have greater potentials for integrating the concept of resilience into their infrastructure as well as keeping pace with their rapid growths in population. It is therefore important to explore the potentials of Asian cities adapting to climate change and the opportunities of building climate resilience in urban planning and building design. Furthermore, previous studies have mainly attempted at exploiting the potential of resilience on a macro-level within urban planning rather than that on micro-level within the context of individual building. The resilience of individual building as a research field has not yet been much explored. Nonetheless, recent studies define that the resilience of an individual building is the one which is able to respond to physical damage and recover from such damage in a quickly and cost-effectively manner, while maintain its primary functions. There is also a need to develop an assessment tool to evaluate the resilience on building scale which is still largely uninvestigated as it should be regarded as a basic function of a building. Due to the lack of literature reporting metric for assessing building resilience with sustainability, the research will be designed as a case study to provide insight into the issue. The aim of this research project is to encourage and assist in developing neighborhood climate resilience design strategies for Hong Kong so as to bridge the gap between difference scales and that between theory and practice.

Keywords: resilience cities, building resilience, resilient buildings and infrastructure, climate resilience, hot and humid southeast area, high-density cities

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Authors: Mirzet SeHo, Alaa Alaabed, Mansur Masih

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In theory, risk-sharing-based financing (RSF) is considered a corner stone of Islamic finance. It is argued to render Islamic banks more resilient to shocks. In practice, however, this feature of Islamic financial products is almost negligible. Instead, debt-based instruments, with conventional like features, have overwhelmed the nascent industry. In addition, the framework of present-day economic, regulatory and financial reality inevitably exposes Islamic banks in dual banking systems to problems of conventional banks. This includes, but is not limited to, interest rate risk. Empirical evidence has, thus far, confirmed such exposures, despite Islamic banks’ interest-free operations. This study applies system GMM in modeling the determinants of RSF, and finds that RSF is insensitive to changes in interest rates. Hence, our results provide support to the “stability” view of risk-sharing-based financing. This suggests RSF as the way forward for risk management at Islamic banks, in the absence of widely acceptable Shariah compliant hedging instruments. Further support to the stability view is given by evidence of counter-cyclicality. Unlike debt-based lending that inflates artificial asset bubbles through credit expansion during the upswing of business cycles, RSF is negatively related to GDP growth. Our results also imply a significantly strong relationship between risk-sharing deposits and RSF. However, the pass-through of these deposits to RSF is economically low. Only about 40% of risk-sharing deposits are channeled to risk-sharing financing. This raises questions on the validity of the industry’s claim that depositors accustomed to conventional banking shun away from risk sharing and signals potential for better balance sheet management at Islamic banks. Overall, our findings suggest that, on the one hand, Islamic banks can gain ‘independence’ from conventional banks and interest rates through risk-sharing products, the potential for which is enormous. On the other hand, RSF could enable policy makers to improve systemic stability and restrain excessive credit expansion through its countercyclical features.

Keywords: Islamic banks, risk-sharing, financing, interest rate, dynamic system GMM

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Authors: Victor O. Abegunde, Melusi Sibanda

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There is need for a great deal of attention on small-scale agriculture for livelihood and food security because of the expanding global population. Small-scale agriculture has been identified as a major driving force of agricultural and rural development. However, the high dependence of the sector on natural and climatic resources has made small-scale farmers highly vulnerable to the adverse impact of climatic change thereby necessitating the need for embracing practices or concepts that will help absorb shocks from changes in climatic condition. This study examines the strategic position of small-scale farming in South African agriculture and in ensuring food security in the country, the vulnerability of small-scale agriculture to climate change and the potential of the concept of climate-smart agriculture to tackle the challenge of climate change. The study carried out a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature touching small-scale agriculture, climate change, food security and climate-smart agriculture, employing the realist review method. Findings revealed that increased productivity in the small-scale agricultural sector has a great potential of improving the food security of households in South Africa and reducing dependence on food purchase in a context of high food price inflation. Findings, however, also revealed that climate change affects small-scale subsistence farmers in terms of productivity, food security and family income, categorizing the impact on smallholder livelihoods into three major groups; biological processes, environmental and physical processes and impact on health. Analysis of the literature consistently showed that climate-smart agriculture integrates the benefits of adaptation and resilience to climate change, mitigation, and food security. As a result, farming households adopting climate-smart agriculture will be better off than their counterparts who do not. This study concludes that climate-smart agriculture could be a very good bridge linking small-scale agricultural sector and agricultural productivity and development which could bring about the much needed food security.

Keywords: climate change, climate-smart agriculture, food security, small-scale

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Authors: Emmanuel Dele Balogun

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This paper analyzes, using descriptive statistics and econometrics data which span the period 1981 to 2014 to gauge the effects of trade policy incentives on economic growth in Nigeria. It argues that the provided incentives penalize economic growth during pre-trade liberalization eras, but stimulated a rapid increase in total factor productivity during the post-liberalization period of 2000 to 2014. The trend analysis shows that Nigeria maintained high tariff walls in economic regulation eras which became low in post liberalization era. The protections were in favor of infant industries, which were mainly appendages of multinationals but against imports of competing food and finished consumer products. The trade openness index confirms the undue exposure of Nigeria’s economy to the vagaries of international market shocks; while banking sector recapitalization and new listing of telecommunications companies deepened the financial markets in post-liberalization era. The structure of economic incentives was biased in favor of construction, trade and services, but against the real sector despite protectionist policies. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) estimates show that the Nigerian economy suffered stagnation in pre-liberalization eras, but experienced rapid growth rates in post-liberalization eras. The regression results relating trade policy incentives to TFP growth rate yielded a significant but negative intercept suggesting that a non-interventionist policy could be detrimental to economic progress, while protective tariff which limits imports of competing products could spur productivity gains in domestic import substitutes beyond factor growth with market liberalization. The main constraint to the effectiveness of trade policy incentives is the failure of benefiting industries to leverage on the domestic factor endowments of the nation. This paper concludes that there is the need to review the current economic transformation strategies urgently with a view to provide policymakers with a better understanding of the most viable options that could make for rapid success.

Keywords: economic growth, macroeconomic incentives, total factor productivity, trade policies

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Authors: E. Syngelaki, C. C. F. Schinkel, S. Klatt, E. Hörandl

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Environmental influence can alter the conditions for plant development and can trigger changes in epigenetic variation. Thus, the exposure to abiotic environmental stress can lead to different DNA methylation profiles and may have evolutionary consequences for adaptation. Epigenetic control mechanisms may further influence mode of reproduction. The alpine species R. kuepferi has diploid and tetraploid cytotypes, that are mostly sexual and facultative apomicts, respectively. Hence, it is a suitable model system for studying the correlations of mode of reproduction, ploidy, and environmental stress. Diploid and tetraploid individuals were placed in two climate chambers and treated with low (+7°C day/+2°C night, -1°C cold shocks for three nights per week) and warm (control) temperatures (+15°C day/+10°C night). Subsequently, methylation sensitive-Amplified Fragment-Length Polymorphism (AFPL) markers were used to screen genome-wide methylation alterations triggered by stress treatments. The dataset was analyzed for four groups regarding treatment (cold/warm) and ploidy level (diploid/tetraploid), and also separately for full methylated, hemi-methylated and unmethylated sites. Patterns of epigenetic variation suggested that diploids differed significantly in their profiles from tetraploids independent from treatment, while treatments did not differ significantly within cytotypes. Furthermore, diploids are more differentiated than the tetraploids in overall methylation profiles of both treatments. This observation is in accordance with the increased frequency of apomictic seed formation in diploids and maintenance of facultative apomixis in tetraploids during the experiment. Global analysis of molecular variance showed higher epigenetic variation within groups than among them, while locus-by-locus analysis of molecular variance showed a high number (54.7%) of significantly differentiated un-methylated loci. To summarise, epigenetic variation seems to depend on ploidy level, and in diploids may be correlated to changes in mode of reproduction. However, further studies are needed to elucidate the mechanism and possible functional significance of these correlations.

Keywords: apomixis, cold stress, DNA methylation, Ranunculus kuepferi

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Authors: Laura Rodríguez Amaya

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The impact of natural disasters on food security can be devastating, especially in rural settings where livelihoods are closely tied to their productive assets. In hazards studies, absorptive capacity is seen as a threshold that impacts the degree of people’s recovery after a natural disaster. Increasing our understanding of households’ capacity to absorb natural disaster shocks can provide the international community with viable measurements for assessing at-risk communities’ resilience to food insecurities. The purpose of this study is to identify the most important factors in determining a household’s capacity to absorb the impact of a natural disaster. This is an empirical study conducted in six communities in Costa Rica affected by earthquakes. The Earthquake Impact Index was developed for the selection of the communities in this study. The households coded as total loss in the selected communities constituted the sampling frame from which the sample population was drawn. Because of the study area geographically dispersion over a large surface, the stratified clustered sampling hybrid technique was selected. Of the 302 households identified as total loss in the six communities, a total of 126 households were surveyed, constituting 42 percent of the sampling frame. A list of indicators compiled based on theoretical and exploratory grounds for the absorptive capacity construct served to guide the survey development. These indicators were included in the following variables: (1) use of informal safety nets, (2) Coping Strategy, (3) Physical Connectivity, and (4) Infrastructure Damage. A multivariate data analysis was conducted using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). The results show that informal safety nets such as family and friends assistance exerted the greatest influence on the ability of households to absorb the impact of earthquakes. In conclusion, communities that experienced the highest environmental impact and human loss got disconnected from the social networks needed to absorb the shock’s impact. This resulted in higher levels of household food insecurity.

Keywords: absorptive capacity, earthquake, food security, rural

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Authors: Gauri Sreekumar, Sabuj Kumar Mandal

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Contributing about 18% to India’s Gross Domestic Product, the agricultural sector plays a significant role in the Indian rural economy. Despite being the primary source of livelihood for more than half of India’s population, most of them are marginal and small farmers facing several challenges due to agro-climatic shocks. Climate change is expected to increase the risk in the regions that are highly agriculture dependent. With systematic and scientific evidence of changes in rainfall, temperature and other extreme climate events, migration started to emerge as a survival strategy for the farm households. In this backdrop, our present study aims to combine the two strands of literature and attempts to explore whether migration is the only adaptation strategy for the farmers once they experience crop failures due adverse climatic condition. Combining the temperature and rainfall information from the weather data provided by the Indian Meteorological Department with the household level panel data on Indian states belonging to the Eastern and Semi-Arid Tropics regions from the Village Dynamics in South Asia (VDSA) collected by the International Crop Research Institute for the Semi-arid Tropics, we form a rich panel data for the years 2010-2014. A Recursive Econometric Model is used to establish the three-way nexus between climate change-yield-migration while addressing the role of irrigation and local non-farm income diversification. Using Three Stage Least Squares Estimation method, we find that climate change induced yield loss is a major driver of farmers’ migration. However, irrigation and local level non-farm income diversification are found to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change on migration. Based on our empirical results, we suggest for enhancing irrigation facilities and making local non-farm income diversification opportunities available to increase farm productivity and thereby reduce farmers’ migration.

Keywords: climate change, migration, adaptation, mitigation

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Authors: Tanja Ecken, Laura Fricke, Anika Wehling, Maren M. Michaelsen, Tobias Esch

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Studies and applied experiences evidence severe and traumatic accidents not only require physical rehabilitation and recovery but also necessitate a psychological adaption and reorganization to the changed living conditions. Neurobiological models underpinning the experience of happiness and satisfaction postulate life shocks to potentially enhance the experience of happiness and life satisfaction, i.e., posttraumatic growth (PTG). This present study aims to provide an in-depth understanding of the underlying psychological processes of PTG and to outline its consequences on subjective happiness and life satisfaction. To explore the aforementioned, Esch’s ABC Model was used as guidance for the development of a questionnaire assessing changes in happiness and life satisfaction and for a schematic model postulating the development of PTG in the context of paraplegia. Two-stage qualitative interview procedures explored participants’ experiences of paraplegia. Specifically, narrative, semi-structured interviews (N=28) focused on the time before and after the accident, the availability of supportive resources, and potential changes in the perception of happiness and life satisfaction. Qualitative analysis (Grounded Theory) indicated an initial phase of reorganization was followed by a gradual psychological adaption to novel, albeit reduced, opportunities in life. Participants reportedly experienced a ‘compelled’ slowing down and elements of mindfulness, subsequently instilling a sense of gratitude and joy in relation to life’s presumed trivialities. Despite physical limitations and difficulties, participants reported an enhanced ability to relate to oneself and others and a reduction of perceived everyday nuisances. Concluding, PTG can be experienced in response to severe, traumatic life events and has the potential to enrich the lives of affected persons in numerous, unexpected and yet challenging ways. PTG appears to be a spectrum comprised of an interplay of internal and external resources underpinned by neurobiological processes. Participants experienced PTG irrelevant of age, gender, marital status, income or level of education.

Keywords: post traumatic growth, happiness, life satisfaction, traumatic life events, paraplegia, ABC model, trauma

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Authors: Tanja Ecken, Laura Fricke, Anika Steger, Maren M. Michaelsen, Tobias Esch

Abstract:

Studies and applied experiences evidence severe and traumatic accidents to not only require physical rehabilitation and recovery but also to necessitate a psychological adaption and reorganization to the changed living conditions. Neurobiological models underpinning the experience of happiness and satisfaction postulate life shocks to potentially enhance the experience of happiness and life satisfaction, i.e., posttraumatic growth (PTG). This present study aims to provide an in-depth understanding of the underlying psychological processes of PTG and to outline its consequences on subjective happiness and life satisfaction. To explore the aforementioned, Esch’s (2022) ABC Model was used as guidance for the development of a questionnaire assessing changes in happiness and life satisfaction and for a schematic model postulating the development of PTG in the context of paraplegia. Two-stage qualitative interview procedures explored participants’ experiences of paraplegia. Specifically, narrative, semi-structured interviews (N=28) focused on the time before and after the accident, the availability of supportive resources, and potential changes in the perception of happiness and life satisfaction. Qualitative analysis (Grounded Theory) indicated an initial phase of reorganization was followed by a gradual psychological adaption to novel, albeit reduced, opportunities in life. Participants reportedly experienced a ‘compelled’ slowing down and elements of mindfulness, subsequently instilling a sense of gratitude and joy in relation to life’s presumed trivialities. Despite physical limitations and difficulties, participants reported an enhanced ability to relate to oneself and others and a reduction of perceived every day nuisances. Concluding, PTG can be experienced in response to severe, traumatic life events and has the potential to enrich the lives of affected persons in numerous, unexpected and yet challenging ways. PTG appears to be spectrum comprised of an interplay of internal and external resources underpinned by neurobiological processes. Participants experienced PTG irrelevant of age, gender, marital status, income or level of education.

Keywords: inhibition theory, posttraumatic growth, trauma, stress, life satisfaction, subjective happiness, traumatic life events, paraplegia

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Authors: Arega Shumetie Ademe, Belay Kassa, Degye Goshu, Majaliwa Mwanjalolo

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Currently the world economy is suffering from one critical problem, climate change. Some studies done before identified that impact of the problem is region specific means in some part of the world (temperate zone) there is improvement in agricultural performance but in some others like in the tropics there is drastic reduction in crop production and crop income. Climate variability is becoming dominant cause of short-term fluctuation in rain-fed agricultural production and income of developing countries. The purely rain-fed Ethiopian agriculture is the most vulnerable sector to the risks and impacts of climate variability. Thus, this study tried to identify impact of climate variability on crop income of smallholders in Ethiopia. The research used eight rounded unbalanced panel data from 1994- 2014 collected from six villages in the study area. After having all diagnostic tests the research used fixed effect method of regression. Based on the regression result rainfall and temperature deviation from their respective long term averages have negative and significant effect on crop income. Other extreme devastating shocks like flood, storm and frost, which are sourced from climate variability, have significant and negative effect on crop income of households’. Parameters that notify rainfall inconsistency like late start, variation in availability at growing season, and early cessation are critical problems for crop income of smallholder households as to the model result. Given this, impact of climate variability is not consistent in different agro-ecologies of the country. Rainfall variability has similar impact on crop income in different agro-ecology, but variation in temperature affects cold agro-ecology villages negatively and significantly, while it has positive effect in warm villages. Parameters that represent rainfall inconsistency have similar impact in both agro-ecologies and the aggregate model regression. This implies climate variability sourced from rainfall inconsistency is the main problem of Ethiopian agriculture especially the crop production sub-sector of smallholder households.

Keywords: climate variability, crop income, household, rainfall, temperature

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Authors: Ali Kadivar, Kaveh Niayesh

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This work simulates the voltage drop and resistance of the explosion of copper wires of diameters 25, 40, and 100 µm surrounded by 1 bar nitrogen exposed to a 150 A current and before plasma formation. The absorption of electrical energy in an exploding wire is greatly diminished when the plasma is formed. This study shows the importance of considering radiation and heat conductivity in the accuracy of the circuit simulations. The radiation of the dense plasma formed on the wire surface is modeled with the Net Emission Coefficient (NEC) and is mixed with heat conductivity through PLASIMO® software. A time-transient code for analyzing wire explosions driven by a slow current rise rate is developed. It solves a circuit equation coupled with one-dimensional (1D) equations for the copper electrical conductivity as a function of its physical state and Net Emission Coefficient (NEC) radiation. At first, an initial voltage drop over the copper wire, current, and temperature distribution at the time of expansion is derived. The experiments have demonstrated that wires remain rather uniform lengthwise during the explosion and can be simulated utilizing 1D simulations. Data from the first stage are then used as the initial conditions of the second stage, in which a simplified 1D model for high-Mach-number flows is adopted to describe the expansion of the core. The current was carried by the vaporized wire material before it was dispersed in nitrogen by the shock wave. In the third stage, using a three-dimensional model of the test bench, the streamer threshold is estimated. Electrical breakdown voltage is calculated without solving a full-blown plasma model by integrating Townsend growth coefficients (TdGC) along electric field lines. BOLSIG⁺ and LAPLACE databases are used to calculate the TdGC at different mixture ratios of nitrogen/copper vapor. The simulations show both radiation and heat conductivity should be considered for an adequate description of wire resistance, and gaseous discharges start at lower voltages than expected due to ultraviolet radiation and the exploding shocks, which may have ionized the nitrogen.

Keywords: exploding wire, Townsend breakdown mechanism, streamer, metal vapor, shock waves

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