Search results for: population projection

Authors: Jane N. O'Sullivan

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Although it is widely believed that fertility decline has benefitted economic advancement, particularly in East and South-East Asian countries, the causal mechanisms for this stimulus are contested. Since the turn of this century, demographic dividend theory has been increasingly recognised, hypothesising that higher proportions of working-age people can contribute to economic expansion if conditions are met to employ them productively. Population growth rate, as a systemic condition distinct from age composition, has not been similar attention since the 1970s and has lacked methodology for quantitative assessment. This paper explores conceptual and empirical quantification of the burden of expanding physical capital to accommodate a growing population. In proof-of-concept analyses of Australia and the United Kingdom, actual expenditure on gross fixed capital formation was compiled over four decades and apportioned to maintenance/turnover or expansion to accommodate population growth, based on lifespan of capital assets and population growth rate. In both countries, capital expansion was estimated to cost 6.5-7.0% of GDP per 1% population growth rate. This opportunity cost impedes the improvement of per capita capacity needed to realise the potential of the working-age population. Economic modelling of demographic scenarios have to date omitted this channel of influence; the implications of its inclusion are discussed.

Keywords: age dependency, demographic dividend, infrastructure, population growth rate

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Authors: Alexander E. Hramov, Vadim V. Grubov, Alexey A. Koronovskii, Maria K. Kurovskaуa, Anastasija E. Runnova

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The perception of visual signals in the brain was among the first issues discussed in terms of multistability which has been introduced to provide mechanisms for information processing in biological neural systems. In this work the influence of the cognitive noise on the visual perception of multistable pictures has been investigated. The study includes an experiment with the bistable Necker cube illusion and the theoretical background explaining the obtained experimental results. In our experiments Necker cubes with different wireframe contrast were demonstrated repeatedly to different people and the probability of the choice of one of the cubes projection was calculated for each picture. The Necker cube was placed at the middle of a computer screen as black lines on a white background. The contrast of the three middle lines centered in the left middle corner was used as one of the control parameter. Between two successive demonstrations of Necker cubes another picture was shown to distract attention and to make a perception of next Necker cube more independent from the previous one. Eleven subjects, male and female, of the ages 20 through 45 were studied. The choice of the Necker cube projection was detected with the Electroencephalograph-recorder Encephalan-EEGR-19/26, Medicom MTD. To treat the experimental results we carried out theoretical consideration using the simplest double-well potential model with the presence of noise that led to the Fokker-Planck equation for the probability density of the stochastic process. At the first time an analytical solution for the probability of the selection of one of the Necker cube projection for different values of wireframe contrast have been obtained. Furthermore, having used the results of the experimental measurements with the help of the method of least squares we have calculated the value of the parameter corresponding to the cognitive noise of the person being studied. The range of cognitive noise parameter values for studied subjects turned to be [0.08; 0.55]. It should be noted, that experimental results have a good reproducibility, the same person being studied repeatedly another day produces very similar data with very close levels of cognitive noise. We found an excellent agreement between analytically deduced probability and the results obtained in the experiment. A good qualitative agreement between theoretical and experimental results indicates that even such a simple model allows simulating brain cognitive dynamics and estimating important cognitive characteristic of the brain, such as brain noise.

Keywords: bistability, brain, noise, perception, stochastic processes

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Authors: Chia-Yu Lin, Yu-Hsiang Shen, Cing-Ciao Ke, Chia-Hao Chang, Fan-Pin Tseng, Yu-Ching Ni, Sheng-Pin Tseng

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Tomosynthesis is an imaging system that generates a 3D image by scanning in a limited angular range. It could provide more depth information than traditional 2D X-ray single projection. Radiation dose in tomosynthesis is less than computed tomography (CT). Because of limited angular range scanning, there are many properties depending on scanning direction. Therefore, non-coplanar imaging technique was developed to improve image quality in traditional tomosynthesis. The purpose of this study was to establish the non-coplanar imaging technique of tomosynthesis system and evaluate this technique by the reconstructed image. INER prototype tomosynthesis system contains an X-ray tube, a flat panel detector, and a motion machine. This system could move X-ray tube in multiple directions during the acquisition. In this study, we investigated three different imaging techniques that were 2D X-ray single projection, traditional tomosynthesis, and non-coplanar tomosynthesis. An anthropopathic chest phantom was used to evaluate the image quality. It contained three different size lesions (3 mm, 5 mm and, 8 mm diameter). The traditional tomosynthesis acquired 61 projections over a 30 degrees angular range in one scanning direction. The non-coplanar tomosynthesis acquired 62 projections over 30 degrees angular range in two scanning directions. A 3D image was reconstructed by iterative image reconstruction algorithm (ML-EM). Our qualitative method was to evaluate artifacts in tomosynthesis reconstructed image. The quantitative method was used to calculate a peak-to-valley ratio (PVR) that means the intensity ratio of the lesion to the background. We used PVRs to evaluate the contrast of lesions. The qualitative results showed that in the reconstructed image of non-coplanar scanning, anatomic structures of chest and lesions could be identified clearly and no significant artifacts of scanning direction dependent could be discovered. In 2D X-ray single projection, anatomic structures overlapped and lesions could not be discovered. In traditional tomosynthesis image, anatomic structures and lesions could be identified clearly, but there were many artifacts of scanning direction dependent. The quantitative results of PVRs show that there were no significant differences between non-coplanar tomosynthesis and traditional tomosynthesis. The PVRs of the non-coplanar technique were slightly higher than traditional technique in 5 mm and 8 mm lesions. In non-coplanar tomosynthesis, artifacts of scanning direction dependent could be reduced and PVRs of lesions were not decreased. The reconstructed image was more isotropic uniformity in non-coplanar tomosynthesis than in traditional tomosynthesis. In the future, scan strategy and scan time will be the challenges of non-coplanar imaging technique.

Keywords: image reconstruction, non-coplanar imaging technique, tomosynthesis, X-ray imaging

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Authors: Masahiro Takimoto

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The present study explored how the metaphor awareness-raising approach affects the involvement of the right hemisphere in developing EFL learners’ knowledge regarding the different degrees of politeness embedded within different request expressions. The present study was motivated by theoretical considerations regarding the conceptual projection and the metaphorical idea of politeness is distance, as proposed; this study applied these considerations to develop Japanese learners’ knowledge regarding the different politeness degrees and to explore the connection between the metaphorical concept projection and right-hemisphere dominance. Japanese EFL learners do not know certain language strategies (e.g., English requests can be mitigated with biclausal downgraders, including the if-clause with past-tense modal verbs) and have difficulty adjusting the politeness degrees attached to request expressions according to situations. The present study used a pre/post-test design to reaffirm the efficacy of the cognitive technique and its connection to right-hemisphere involvement by mouth asymmetry technique. Mouth asymmetry measurement has been utilized because speech articulation, normally controlled mainly by one side of the brain, causes muscles on the opposite side of the mouth to move more during speech production. The present research did not administer the delayed post-test because it emphasized determining whether metaphor awareness-raising approaches for developing EFL learners’ pragmatic proficiency entailed right-hemisphere activation. Each test contained an acceptability judgment test (AJT) along with a speaking test in the post-test. The study results show that the metaphor awareness-raising group performed significantly better than the control group with regard to acceptability judgment and speaking tests post-test. These data revealed that the metaphor awareness-raising approach could promote L2 learning because it aided input enhancement and concept projection; through these aspects, the participants were able to comprehend an abstract concept: the degree of politeness in terms of the spatial concept of distance. Accordingly, the proximal-distal metaphor enabled the study participants to connect the newly spatio-visualized concept of distance to the different politeness degrees attached to different request expressions; furthermore, they could recall them with the left side of the mouth being wider than the right. This supported certain findings from previous studies that indicated the possible involvement of the brain's right hemisphere in metaphor processing.

Keywords: metaphor awareness-raising, right hemisphere, L2 politeness, mouth asymmetry

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Authors: Aleena Rena Onozuka, Patompong Satapornpong

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Introduction: In a Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA)’s immune response, HLA alleles (HLA class I and class II) play a crucial role in fighting against pathogens. HLA-B*15:01 allele had a significant association with asymptomatic COVID-19 infection (p-value = 5.67 x 10-5 ; OR = 2.40 and 95% CI = 1.54 - 3.64). There was also a notable linkage between HLA-B*51:01 allele and critically ill patients with COVID-19 (p-value = 0.007 and OR = 3.38). This study has described the distribution of HLA marker alleles in Thais and sub-groups. Objective: We want to investigate the prevalence of HLA-B*15:01 and HLA-B*51:01 alleles in the Thai population. Materials and Methods: 200 healthy Thai population were included in this study from the College of Pharmacy, Rangsit University. HLA-B alleles were genotyped using the sequence-specific oligonucleotides process (PCR-SSOs). Results: We found out that HLA-B*46:01 (12.00%), HLA-B*15:02 (9.25%), HLA-B*40:01 (6.50%), HLA-B*13:01 (6.25%), and HLA-B* 38:02 (5.50%) alleles were more common than other alleles in Thai population. HLA-B*46:01 and HLA-B*15:02 were the most common allele found across four regions. Moreover, the frequency of HLA-B*15:01 and HLA-B*51:01 alleles were similarly distributed in Thai population (0.50, 5.25 %) and (p-value > 0.05), respectively. The frequencies of HLA-B*15:01 and HLA-B*51:01 alleles were not significantly different from other populations compared to the Thai population. Conclusions: We can screen for HLA-B*15:01 and HLA-B*51:01 alleles to determine the symptoms of COVID-19 since they are universal HLA-B markers. Importantly, the database of HLA markers indicates the association between HLA frequency and populations. However, we need further research on larger numbers of COVID-19 patients and in different populations.

Keywords: HLA-B*15:01, HLA-B*51:01, COVID-19, HLA-B alleles

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Authors: Ashim Sattar, Ajanta Goswami, Anil V. Kulkarni

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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) highly contributes to mountain hazards in the Himalaya. Over the past decade, high altitude lakes in the Himalaya has been showing notable growth in their size and number. The key reason is rapid retreat of its glacier front. Hydrodynamic modeling GLOF using shallow water equations (SWE) would result in understanding its impact in the downstream region. The present study incorporates remote sensing based ice thickness modeling to determine the future extent of the Dhauliganga Lake to map the over deepening extent around the highest lake in the Dhauliganga basin. The maximum future volume of the lake calculated using area-volume scaling is used to model a GLOF event. The GLOF hydrograph is routed along the channel using one dimensional and two dimensional model to understand the flood wave propagation till it reaches the 1st hydropower station located 72 km downstream of the lake. The present extent of the lake calculated using SENTINEL 2 images is 0.13 km². The maximum future extent of the lake, mapped by investigating the glacier bed has a calculated scaled volume of 3.48 x 106 m³. The GLOF modeling releasing the future volume of the lake resulted in a breach hydrograph with a peak flood of 4995 m³/s at just downstream of the lake. Hydraulic routing

Keywords: GLOF, glacial lake outburst floods, mountain hazard, Central Himalaya, future projection

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Authors: Watchawin Ekphinitphithaya, Patompong Satapornpong

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Introduction: Carbamazepine (CBZ) is one of the most prescribed antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) by neurologists and non-neurologist worldwide. CBZ is usually prescribed along with other drugs, leading to the possibility of severe cutaneous adverse drug reactions (SCARs). The HLA-B*15:02 is strongly associated with CBZ-induced Stevens-Johnson syndrome and toxic epidermal necrolysis (SJS–TEN) in the Han Chinese and other Asian populations but not in European populations, while HLA-A*31:01 allele has been reported to be associated with CBZ-induced SCARs in European population and Japanese. Objective: The aim of this study is to investigate the distribution of pharmacogenetics HLA-A*31:01 marker in a healthy Thai population associated with Carbamazepine-induced SCARs. Materials and Methods: Prospective study, 350 unrelated healthy Thais were recruited in this study. Human leukocyte antigen-A alleles were genotyped using PCR-sequence specific oligonucleotides (PCR-SSOs). Results: The frequency of HLA-A alleles were HLA-A*11:01 (190 alleles, 27.14%), HLA-A*24:02 (82 alleles, 11.71%), HLA-A*02:03 (80 alleles, 11.43%), HLA-A*33:03 (76 alleles, 10.86%), HLA-A*02:07 (58 alleles, 8.29%), HLA-A*02:01 (35 alleles, 5.00%), HLA-A*24:07 (29 alleles, 4.14%), HLA-A*02:06 – HLA-A*30:01 (15 alleles, 2.14%), and HLA-A*01:01 (14 alleles, 2.00%). Particularly, the number of HLA-A*31:01 alleles was 6 of 700 (0.86%) in the healthy Thai population. Many research presented varying distributions of HLA-A*31:01 in Asians, including 2% of Han Chinese, 9% of Japanese and 5% of Koreans. In addition, this allele was found approximately 2-5% in the Caucasian population. Conclusions: Thus, the pharmacogenetics database is vital to support in many populations, especially in Thais, for screening HLA-A*31:01 allele to avoid CBZ-induced SCARs before initiating treatments in each population.

Keywords: Carbamazepine, HLA-A*31:01, Thai population, pharmacogenetics

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Authors: Mohamed Hamed Mohamed Ahmed Alameer

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Population studies, essentially deals with the size, growth, and distribution of the population in a given area. Size, growth, and distribution are determined by three major factors, which are fertility mortality, and migration. Of these factors, fertility- as a number of live births a woman has actually had- is a potent socio-demographic force in vital process of population growth. So, fertility is a major component of population growth. It is one of the main determinants of population growth and has crucial role in population dynamic, because it measures the rate at which a population increased. In fact the levels of fertility are vary widely among nations, countries, geographic regions, ethnic, socio- economic groups, and religious groups. Fertility differential by religion have been empirically documented in a large numbers of countries. For instance, many researchers in developing and developed countries investigated the differential of fertility among Muslims and Non- Muslims. Most of them have found that fertility of Muslims is higher than fertility of non Muslims. And Muslims have a tendency for large families comparing to non- Muslims population. On the basis of this; Islam by it itself could play an important role in shaping attitudes and values of fertility, such as: sustainability of human kind, developmental reasons, religious Motivations, socioeconomic Motivations, and Psychological Motivation. Therefore, this paper investigates socio-economic values of fertility in Islam and compare it to Malthusian and neo Malthusian functionalists and conflict perspectives.

Keywords: islam, fertility, socioeconomic values, social sciences

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Authors: Alireza Akbari, Gelareh Babaee Khou

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Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) is an important nondestructive remote sensing tool that has been used in both military and civilian fields. Recently, GPR imaging has attracted lots of attention in detection of subsurface shallow small targets such as landmines and unexploded ordnance and also imaging behind the wall for security applications. For the monostatic arrangement in the space-time GPR image, a single point target appears as a hyperbolic curve because of the different trip times of the EM wave when the radar moves along a synthetic aperture and collects reflectivity of the subsurface targets. With this hyperbolic curve, the resolution along the synthetic aperture direction shows undesired low resolution features owing to the tails of hyperbola. However, highly accurate information about the size, electromagnetic (EM) reflectivity, and depth of the buried objects is essential in most GPR applications. Therefore hyperbolic curve behavior in the space-time GPR image is often willing to be transformed to a focused pattern showing the object's true location and size together with its EM scattering. The common goal in a typical GPR image is to display the information of the spatial location and the reflectivity of an underground object. Therefore, the main challenge of GPR imaging technique is to devise an image reconstruction algorithm that provides high resolution and good suppression of strong artifacts and noise. In this paper, at first, the standard back-projection (BP) algorithm that was adapted to GPR imaging applications used for the image reconstruction. The standard BP algorithm was limited with against strong noise and a lot of artifacts, which have adverse effects on the following work like detection targets. Thus, an improved BP is based on cross-correlation between the receiving signals proposed for decreasing noises and suppression artifacts. To improve the quality of the results of proposed BP imaging algorithm, a weight factor was designed for each point in region imaging. Compared to a standard BP algorithm scheme, the improved algorithm produces images of higher quality and resolution. This proposed improved BP algorithm was applied on the simulation and the real GPR data and the results showed that the proposed improved BP imaging algorithm has a superior suppression artifacts and produces images with high quality and resolution. In order to quantitatively describe the imaging results on the effect of artifact suppression, focusing parameter was evaluated.

Keywords: algorithm, back-projection, GPR, remote sensing

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Authors: Mahtsente Tadese, Lalit Kumar, Richard Koech

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The aim of this study was to project and analyze climate change in the Awash River Basin (ARB) using bias-corrected Global and Regional Climate Model simulations. The analysis included a baseline period from 1986-2005 and two future scenarios (the 2050s and 2070s) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Bias correction methods were evaluated using graphical and statistical methods. Following the evaluation of bias correction methods, the Distribution Mapping (DM) and Power Transformation (PT) were used for temperature and precipitation projection, respectively. The 2050s and 2070s RCP4 simulations showed an increase in precipitation during half of the months with 32 and 10%, respectively. Moreover, the 2050s and 2070s RCP8.5 simulation indicated a decrease in precipitation with 18 and 26%, respectively. The 2050s and 2070s RCP8.5 simulation indicated a significant decrease in precipitation in four of the months (February/March to May) with the highest decreasing rate of 34.7%. The 2050s and 2070s RCP4.5 simulation showed an increase of 0.48-2.6 °C in maximum temperature. In the case of RCP8.5, the increase rate reached 3.4 °C and 4.1 °C in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. The changes in precipitation and temperature might worsen the water stress, flood, and drought in ARB. Moreover, the critical focus should be given to mitigation strategies and management options to reduce the negative impact. The findings of this study provide valuable information on future precipitation and temperature change in ARB, which will help in the planning and design of sustainable mitigation approaches in the basin.

Keywords: variability, climate change, Awash River Basin, precipitation

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Authors: W. T. Hsu, H. L. Tsai

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The rapid aging of the population is a common trend in the world. However, the progress of modern medical technology has increased the average life expectancy. The global population structure has changed dramatically, and the elderly population has risen rapidly. In the face of rapid population growth, it must be noted issues of the aging population must face up to, which are the physiological, psychological, and social problems associated with aging. This study aims to investigate how insurance agents are actively dealing with an aging society, their own aging anxiety, and their exercise habits. Purposive sampling was the sampling method of this study, a total of 204 respondents were surveyed and 204 valid surveys were returned. The returned valid ratio was 100%. Statistical method included descriptive statistics, t-test, and one-way ANOVA. The results of the study found that the insurance agent’s age, seniority, exercise habits to aging anxiety are significantly different.

Keywords: insurance practitioners, aging anxiety, exercise habits, elderly

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Authors: Chen Zhang, Nan Chen

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High-dimensional process monitoring becomes increasingly important in many application domains, where usually the process distribution is unknown and much more complicated than the normal distribution, and the between-stream correlation can not be neglected. However, since the process dimension is generally much bigger than the reference sample size, most traditional nonparametric multivariate control charts fail in high-dimensional cases due to the curse of dimensionality. Furthermore, when the process goes out of control, the influenced variables are quite sparse compared with the whole dimension, which increases the detection difficulty. Targeting at these issues, this paper proposes a new nonparametric monitoring scheme for high-dimensional processes. This scheme first projects the high-dimensional process into several subprocesses using random projections for dimension reduction. Then, for every subprocess with the dimension much smaller than the reference sample size, a local nonparametric control chart is constructed based on the spatial rank test to detect changes in this subprocess. Finally, the results of all the local charts are fused together for decision. Furthermore, after an out-of-control (OC) alarm is triggered, a diagnostic framework is proposed. using the square-root LASSO. Numerical studies demonstrate that the chart has satisfactory detection power for sparse OC changes and robust performance for non-normally distributed data, The diagnostic framework is also effective to identify truly changed variables. Finally, a real-data example is presented to demonstrate the application of the proposed method.

Keywords: random projection, high-dimensional process control, spatial rank, sequential change detection

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Authors: Rajat Kapoor

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India is a developing country and has experienced a rapid and tumultuous urban growth in the 20th century. The total urban population of the city increased ten-fold between 1901 and 2001. The share of urban population to the total population increased from less than 11 percent to over 28 percent in the same period. Except few examples, most of the Indian cities have grown in a haphazard manner; concentration of population followed by the planning exercises. In this era of global competitiveness and rapid urbanization there is no scope for malpractices in development strategies. It is expected that the Indian cities shall be planned comprehensively and holistically. The study reveals the land transformations the city of Faridabad is witnessing due to development which is largely boosted by the virtue of its location in the Delhi NCR.

Keywords: Delhi NCR, Faridabad, urban growth patterns, India

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Authors: Rada Somkhuean, Sa-aat Niwitpong, Suparat Niwitpong

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This paper presents the generalized p-values for testing the difference between two future population means when the variances are unknown, in both cases for when the variances are equal and unequal. We also derive a closed form expression of the upper bound of the proposed generalized p-value.

Keywords: generalized p-value, two future population means, upper bound, variances

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Authors: Saba Riaz, Syed A. Hussain

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This paper is addressing the estimation method of the unknown population variance of the variable of interest. A new generalized class of estimators of the finite population variance has been suggested using the auxiliary information. To improve the precision of the proposed class, known population variance of the auxiliary variable has been used. Mathematical expressions for the biases and the asymptotic variances of the suggested class are derived under large sample approximation. Theoretical and numerical comparisons are made to investigate the performances of the proposed class of estimators. The empirical study reveals that the suggested class of estimators performs better than the usual estimator, classical ratio estimator, classical product estimator and classical linear regression estimator. It has also been found that the suggested class of estimators is also more efficient than some recently published estimators.

Keywords: study variable, auxiliary variable, finite population variance, bias, asymptotic variance, percent relative efficiency

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Authors: Benaissa Fatima, Alkama Rezak, Annesi-Maesano Isabella

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To assess the health impact of the air pollution on the population of Béjaia, we carried out a descriptive epidemiologic inquiry near the medical establishments of three areas. From the registers of hospital admissions, we collected data on the hospital mortality and admissions relating to the various cardiorespiratory pathologies generated by this type of pollution. In parallel, data on the automobile fleet of Bejaia and other measurements were exploited to show that the concentrations of the pollutants are strongly correlated with the concentration the urban traffic. This study revealed that the whole of the population is touched, but the sensitivity to pollution can show variations according to the age, the sex and the place of residence. So the under population of the town of Bejaia marked the most raised death and morbidity rates, followed that of Kherrata. Weak rates are recorded for under rural population of Feraoun. This approach enables us to conclude that the population of Béjaia could not escape the urban pollution generated by her old automobile fleet. To install a monitoring and measuring site of the air pollution in this city could provide a beneficial tool to protect its inhabitants by them informing on quality from the air that they breathe and measurements to follow to minimize the impacts on their health and by alerting the authorities during the critical situations.

Keywords: air, urban pollution, health, impacts

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Authors: Asharaf Abdul Salam

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Arabian Gulf countries have norms and rules different from others: having an exodus of male immigrant labor contract holders of age 20-60 years as a floating population. Such a demographic scenario camouflages population ageing. However, it is observed on examining vigilantly, not only in the native population but also in the general population. This research on population ageing in the Arabian Gulf examines ageing scenario and concerns through analyses of international databases (US Census Bureau and United Nations) and national level databases (Censuses and Surveys) apart from a review of published research. Transitions in demography and epidemiology lead to gains in life expectancy and thereby reductions in fertility, leading to ageing of the population in the region. Even after bringing adult immigrants, indices and age pyramids show an increasing ageing trend in the total population, demonstrating an ageing workforce. Besides, the exclusive native population analysis reveals a trend of expansive pyramids (pre-transitional stage) turning to constrictive (transition stage) and cylindrical (post-transition stage) shapes. Age-based indices such as the index of ageing, age dependency ratio, and median age confirm this trend. While the feminine nature of ageing is vivid, gains in life expectancy and causes of death in old age, indicating co-morbidity compression, are concerns to ageing. Preparations are in demand to cope with ageing from different dimensions, as explained in the United Nations Plans of Action. A strategy of strengthening informal care with supportive semi-formal and supplementary formal care networks would alleviate this crisis associated with population ageing.

Keywords: total versus native population, indices of ageing, age pyramids, feminine nature, comorbidity compression, strategic interventions

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Authors: Phayong Thepaksorn

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The objective of this study was to assess whether living in proximity to a roofing fiber cement factory in southern Thailand was associated with physical, mental, social, and spiritual health domains measured in a self-reported health risk assessment (HRA) questionnaire. A cross-sectional study was conducted among community members divided into two groups: near population (living within 0-2 km of factory) and far population (living within 2-5 km of factory)(N=198). A greater proportion of those living far from the factory (65.34%) reported physical health problems than the near group (51.04 %)(p=0.032). This study has demonstrated that the near population group had higher proportion of participants with positive ratings on mental assessment (30.34%) and social health impacts (28.42%) than far population group (10.59% and 16.67 %, respectively) (p<0.001). The near population group (29.79%) had similar proportion of participants with positive ratings in spiritual health impacts compared with far population group (27.08%). Among females, but not males, this study demonstrated that a higher proportion of the near population had a positive summative score for the self-HRA, which included all four health domain, compared to the far population (p <0.001 for females; p=0.154 for males). In conclusion, this self-HRA of physical, mental, social, and spiritual health domains reflected the risk perceptions of populations living in the vicinity of the roofing fiber cement factory. This type of tool can bring attention to population concerns and complaints in the factory’s surrounding community. Our findings may contribute to future development of self-HRA for HIA development procedure in Thailand.

Keywords: cement dust, health impact assessment, risk assessment, walk-though survey

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Authors: Miroslava Marković, Renata Gagić, Serdar, Aleksandar Lučić, Ljubinko Rakonjac

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Forest dieback that comes in waves since the early 20th century has lately grown into an epidemic, in particular in oak stands. For this reason, research was conducted of the population dynamics of early oak defoliators, which represent a grave danger in oak stands due to their gradogenic attributes. The research was carried out over a 5-year period in oak forests in the area of forest administrations Kragujevac and Gornji Milanovac. The samples used in the research were collected from bottom branches, where Geometridae were found in the largest numbers, as well as from the mid and upper parts of the crowns, where other species were found. Population levels of these pests were presented in laboratory conditions on winter branch samples and in newly foliated stands on site, depending on the basic parameters of the climatic conditions. The greatest deviation of the population level of early oak defoliators was noted in 2018 on all 6 presented localities through the analysis of winter branches and the analysis of their presence in newly foliated stands on site, and it was followed by the highest average air temperature.

Keywords: defoliators, oak, population level, population dynamics

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Authors: Temur Chilachava

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In work the new nonlinear mathematical model describing assimilation of the people (population) with some less widespread language by two states with two various widespread languages, taking into account demographic factor is offered. In model three subjects are considered: the population and government institutions with the widespread first language, influencing by means of state and administrative resources on the third population with some less widespread language for the purpose of their assimilation; the population and government institutions with the widespread second language, influencing by means of state and administrative resources on the third population with some less widespread language for the purpose of their assimilation; the third population (probably small state formation, an autonomy), exposed to bilateral assimilation from two rather powerful states. Earlier by us it was shown that in case of zero demographic factor of all three subjects, the population with less widespread language completely assimilates the states with two various widespread languages, and the result of assimilation (redistribution of the assimilated population) is connected with initial quantities, technological and economic capabilities of the assimilating states. In considered model taking into account demographic factor natural decrease in the population of the assimilating states and a natural increase of the population which has undergone bilateral assimilation is supposed. At some ratios between coefficients of natural change of the population of the assimilating states, and also assimilation coefficients, for nonlinear system of three differential equations are received the two first integral. Cases of two powerful states assimilating the population of small state formation (autonomy), with different number of the population, both with identical and with various economic and technological capabilities are considered. It is shown that in the first case the problem is actually reduced to nonlinear system of two differential equations describing the classical model "predator - the victim", thus, naturally a role of the victim plays the population which has undergone assimilation, and a predator role the population of one of the assimilating states. The population of the second assimilating state in the first case changes in proportion (the coefficient of proportionality is equal to the relation of the population of assimilators in an initial time point) to the population of the first assimilator. In the second case the problem is actually reduced to nonlinear system of two differential equations describing type model "a predator – the victim", with the closed integrated curves on the phase plane. In both cases there is no full assimilation of the population to less widespread language. Intervals of change of number of the population of all three objects of model are found. The considered mathematical models which in some approach can model real situations, with the real assimilating countries and the state formations (an autonomy or formation with the unrecognized status), undergone to bilateral assimilation, show that for them the only possibility to avoid from assimilation is the natural demographic increase in population and hope for natural decrease in the population of the assimilating states.

Keywords: nonlinear mathematical model, bilateral assimilation, demographic factor, first integrals, result of assimilation, intervals of change of number of the population

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Authors: Jan M. Mari

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Safflower is a renowned drought tolerant oil seed crop. Previously its flowers were used for cooking and herbal medicines in China and it was cultivated by small growers for his personal needs of oil. A field study was conducted at experimental field, faculty of crop protection, Sindh Agricultural University Tandojam, during winter, 2012-13, to observe ecological effect on aphid population in safflower crop. Aphid population gradually increased with the growth of safflower. It developed with maximum aphid per leaf on 3rd week of February and it decreased in March as crop matured. A non-significant interaction was found with temperature of aphid, zigzag and hoverfly, respectively and a highly significant interaction with temperature was found with 7-spotted, lacewing, 9-spotted, and Brumus, respectively. The data revealed the overall mean population of zigzag was highest, followed by 9-spotted, 7-spotted, lace wing, hover fly and Brumus, respectively. In initial time the predator and prey ratio indicated that there was not a big difference between predator and prey ratio. After January 1st, the population of aphid increased suddenly until 18th February and it established a significant difference between predator prey ratios. After that aphid population started decreasing and it affected ratio between pest and predators. It is concluded that biotic factors, 7-spotted, zigzag, 9-spotted Brumus and lacewing exhibited a strong and positive correlation with aphid population. It is suggested that aphid pest should be monitored regularly and before reaching economic threshold level augmentation of natural enemies may be managed.

Keywords: aphid, ecology, population, safflower

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Authors: Tzu-Jung Tseng, Pei-Hsuen Han, Tsung-Hsueh Lu

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Background: Ensuring patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) access to hospitals that could perform percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in time is an important concern of healthcare managers. One commonly used the method to assess the coverage of population access to PCI hospital is the use GIS-estimated linear distance (crow's fly distance) between the district centroid and the nearest PCI hospital. If the distance is within a given distance (such as 20 km), the entire population of that district is considered to have appropriate access to PCI. The premise of using district centroid to estimate the coverage of population resident in that district is that the people live in the district are evenly distributed. In reality, the population density is not evenly distributed within the administrative district, especially in rural districts. Fortunately, the Taiwan government released basic statistical area (on average 450 population within the area) recently, which provide us an opportunity to estimate the coverage of population access to PCI services more accurate. Objectives: We aimed in this study to compare the population covered by a give PCI hospital according to traditional administrative district versus basic statistical area. We further examined if the differences between two geographic units used would be larger in a rural area than in urban area. Method: We selected two hospitals in Tainan City for this analysis. Hospital A is in urban area, hospital B is in rural area. The population in each traditional administrative district and basic statistical area are obtained from Taiwan National Geographic Information System, Ministry of Internal Affairs. Results: Estimated population live within 20 km of hospital A and B was 1,515,846 and 323,472 according to traditional administrative district and was 1,506,325 and 428,556 according to basic statistical area. Conclusion: In urban area, the estimated access population to PCI services was similar between two geographic units. However, in rural areas, the access population would be overestimated.

Keywords: accessibility, basic statistical area, modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP), percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI)

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Authors: D. K. Rao, M. G. M. Khan, K. G. Reddy

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The focus of this paper is to develop a technique of solving a combined problem of determining Optimum Strata Boundaries (OSB) and Optimum Sample Size (OSS) of each stratum, when the population understudy is skewed and the study variable has a Pareto frequency distribution. The problem of determining the OSB is formulated as a Mathematical Programming Problem (MPP) which is then solved by dynamic programming technique. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the computational details of the proposed method. The proposed technique is useful to obtain OSB and OSS for a Pareto type skewed population, which minimizes the variance of the estimate of population mean.

Keywords: stratified sampling, optimum strata boundaries, optimum sample size, pareto distribution, mathematical programming problem, dynamic programming technique

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Authors: Ruan Yi-Chen, Li Wang-Ming, Fang Yuan

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With the rapid growth of urbanization in China in recent years, public services are in short supply because of expanding population and limitation of financial support, which makes delicate configuration of public service facilities to become a trend in urban planning. Besides, the facility configuration standard implemented in China is equal to the whole the urban area without considering internal differences in it. Therefore, this article focuses on population Spatial disparities analysis in order to optimize facility configuration in communities of main city district. The used data, including population of 93 communities during 2010 to 2015, comes from GongShu district, Hangzhou city, PRC. Through the analysis of population data, especially the age structure of those communities, the communities finally divided into 3 types. Obviously, urban public service facilities allocation situation directly affect the quality of residents common lives, which turns out that deferent kinds of communities with deferent groups of citizens will have divergences in facility demanding. So in the end of the article, strategies of facility configuration will be proposed based on the population analysis in order to optimize the quantity and location of facilities with delicacy.

Keywords: delicacy, facility configuration, population spatial disparities, urban area

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Authors: Hamid Mustafa, Huson J. Heather, Kim Eiusoo, McClure Matt, Khalid Javed, Talat Nasser Pasha, Afzal Ali1, Adeela Ajmal, Tad Sonstegard

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Genetic differences associated with speciation, breed formation or local adaptation can help to preserve and effective utilization of animals in selection programs. Analyses of population structure and breed diversity have provided insight into the origin and evolution of cattle. In this study, we used a high-density panel of SNP markers to examine population structure and diversity among ten Pakistani indigenous cattle breeds. In total, 25 individuals from three cattle populations, including Achi (n=08), Bhagnari (n=04) and Cholistani (n=13) were genotyped for 777, 962 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. Population structure was examined using the linkage model in the program STRUCTURE. After characterizing SNP polymorphism in the different populations, we performed a detailed analysis of genetic structure at both the individual and population levels. The whole-genome SNP panel identified several levels of population substructure in the set of examined cattle breeds. We further searched for spatial patterns of genetic diversity among these breeds under the recently developed spatial principal component analysis framework. Overall, such high throughput genotyping data confirmed a clear partitioning of the cattle genetic diversity into distinct breeds. The resulting complex historical origins associated with both natural and artificial selection have led to the differentiation of numerous different cattle breeds displaying a broad phenotypic variety over a short period of time.

Keywords: Pakistan, cattle, genetic diversity, population structure

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Authors: P. G. Romeo

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A Lie group is a highly sophisticated structure which is a smooth manifold whose underlying set of elements is equipped with the structure of a group such that the group multiplication and inverse-assigning functions are smooth. This structure was introduced by the Norwegian mathematician So- phus Lie who founded the theory of continuous groups. The Lie groups are well developed and have wide applications in areas including Mathematical Physics. There are several advances and generalizations for Lie groups and Lie groupoids is one such which is termed as a "many-object generalization" of Lie groups. A groupoid is a category whose morphisms are all invertible, obviously, every group is a groupoid but not conversely. Definition 1. A Lie groupoid G ⇒ M is a groupoid G on a base M together with smooth structures on G and M such that the maps α, β: G → M are surjective submertions, the object inclusion map x '→ 1x, M → G is smooth, and the partial multiplication G ∗ G → G is smooth. A bundle is a triple (E, p, B) where E, B are topological spaces p: E → B is a map. Space B is called the base space and space E is called total space and map p is the projection of the bundle. For each b ∈ B, the space p−1(b) is called the fibre of the bundle over b ∈ B. Intuitively a bundle is regarded as a union of fibres p−1(b) for b ∈ B parametrized by B and ’glued together’ by the topology of the space E. A cross-section of a bundle (E, p, B) is a map s: B → E such that ps = 1B. Example 1. Given any space B, a product bundle over B with fibre F is (B × F, p, B) where p is the projection on the first factor. Definition 2. A principal bundle P (M, G, π) consists of a manifold P, a Lie group G, and a free right action of G on P denoted (u, g) '→ ug, such that the orbits of the action coincide with the fibres of the surjective submersion π : P → M, and such that M is covered by the domains of local sections σ: U → P, U ⊆ M, of π. Definition 3. A Lie group bundle, or LGB, is a smooth fibre bundle (K, q, M ) in which each fibre (Km = q−1(m), and the fibre type G, has a Lie group structure, and for which there is an atlas {ψi: Ui × G → KUi } such that each {ψi,m : G → Km}, is an isomorphism of Lie groups. A morphism of LGB from (K, q, M ) to (K′, q′, M′) is a morphism (F, f ) of fibre bundles such that each Fm: Km → K′ is a morphism of Lie groups. In this paper, we will be discussing the Lie groupoid bundles. Here it is seen that to a Lie groupoid Ω on base B there is associated a collection of principal bundles Ωx(B, Ωx), all of which are mutually isomorphic and conversely, associated to any principal bundle P (B, G, p) there is a groupoid called the Ehresmann groupoid which is easily seen to be Lie. Further, some interesting properties of the category of Lie groupoids and bundles will be explored.

Keywords: groupoid, lie group, lie groupoid, bundle

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Authors: Parvin Abedi, Poorandokht Afshari

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Introduction: In 2022, the Youth Law of the Population was notified to all organizations, including the Iranian Ministry of Health. Some of the articles of this law are about the role of midwives in health and treatment to promote childbearing. In this regard, articles number 45, 48, 49, and 50 are related to midwifery work that will be reviewed in this article. Methods: In this review, the law of population youth was reviewed. In this regard, the statistics of midwives working in the treatment and health sector were collected and analyzed according to the population youth law. Results: Nearly 47 000 midwives are working in the public and private sectors of the country and in the healthcare sector; according to Article 49, which states that there should be one midwife for every two parturient women, about 12,000 midwives are needed in the treatment department and about 8,000 midwives are needed in the health department. In Article 50 it is mentioned to modify tariffs and efficiency in order to increase natural childbirth, and in this field, insurance organizations should have sufficient cooperation with payments. The tariff for midwifery services has been increased, but it is not enough for the stressful job of midwifery. The labor incentive for delivery by midwives is also low. Conclusion: Midwives are one of the fundamental pillars of the law of the population, and without increasing the motivation of midwives, it is not possible to increase the rate of natural childbirth and make childbirth pleasant.

Keywords: law of the population, midwife, motivation, childbearing

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Authors: Karlygash Tulendieva

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Presently vaccination is the most effective method of prevention of flu and its complications. The purpose of this study was to analyze the impact of the increase of coverage of the population of South Kazakhstan region with flu vaccination and decrease of the ARVI morbidity. The analysis was performed on the data of flu vaccination of risk groups, including children under one year and pregnant women. Data on ARVI morbidity during 2010-2015 and data on vaccination were taken from the reports of the Epidemiological Surveillance Unit of Department of Consumers’ Rights Protection of South Kazakhstan region. Coverage with flu vaccination of the risk groups was annually increasing and in 2015 it reached 16% (450,000/2,800,682) from the total population. The ARVI morbidity rate in the entire population in 2010 was 2,010.4 per 100,000 of the population and decreased 3.2 times to 609.9 per 100,000 of the population in 2015. Annual growth was observed from 2010 to 2015 of specific weight of the vaccinated main risk groups: healthcare workers by 51% (from 17,331 in 2010 to 33,538 in 2015), children with chronic pulmonary and cardio-vascular diseases, immune deficiency, weak and sickly children above six months by 39% (from 63,122 in 2010 to 158,023 in 2015), adults with chronic co-morbidities by 27% (from 44,271 in 2010 to 162,595 in 2015), persons above 65 by 17% (from 10,276 in 2010 to 57,875 in 2015), and annual coverage of pregnant women on second or third trimester from 34,443 in 2010 to 37,969 in 2015. Starting from 2013 and until 2015 vaccination was performed in the region with coverage of at least 90% of children from 6 months to one year. The ARVI morbidity in this age group decreased 3.3 times from 8,687.8 per 100,000 of the population in 2010 to 2,585.8 per 100,000 of the population in 2015. Vaccination of pregnant women on 2-3 trimester was started in the region in 2012. Annual increase of vaccination coverage of pregnant women from 86.1% (34,443/40,000) in 2012 to 95% (37,969/40,000) in 2015 decreased the morbidity 1.5 times from 4,828.8 per 100,000 of population in 2012 to 3,022.7 per 100,000 of population in 2015. Following the increase of vaccination coverage of the population in South Kazakhstan region, the trend was observed of decrease of ARVI morbidity rates among the population and main risk groups, among pregnant women and children under one year.

Keywords: acute respiratory viral infections, flu, risk groups, vaccination

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Authors: Nikolaos Simantiris, Markos Avlonitis

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This work builds a simulation platform, modeling the spatial diffusion of the invasive species Callinectes sapidus (blue crab) as a random walk, incorporating also generation, fatality, and fishing rates modeling the time evolution of its population. Antinioti lagoon in West Greece was used as a testbed for applying the simulation model. Field measurements from June 2020 to June 2021 on the lagoon’s setting, bathymetry, and blue crab juveniles provided the initial population simulation of blue crabs, as well as biological parameters from the current literature were used to calibrate simulation parameters. The scope of this study is to render the authors able to predict the evolution of the blue crab population in confined environments of the Ionian Islands region in West Greece. The first result of the simulation experiments shows the possibility for a robust prediction for blue crab population evolution in the Antinioti lagoon.

Keywords: antinioti lagoon, blue crab, stochastic simulation, random walk

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Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

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From a theoretical point of view, the relationship between the risk associated with an investment and the expected value are directly proportional, in the sense that the market allows a greater result to those who are willing to take a greater risk. However, empirical evidence proves that this relationship is distorted in the minds of investors and is perceived exactly the opposite. To deepen and understand the discrepancy between the actual actions of the investor and the theoretical predictions, this paper analyzes the essential parameters used for the valuation of financial assets with greater attention to two elements: probability and the passage of time. Although these may seem at first glance to be two distinct elements, they are closely related. In particular, the error in the theoretical description of the relationship between risk and return lies in the failure to consider the impatience that is generated in the decision-maker when events that have not yet happened occur in the decision-making context. In this context, probability loses its objective meaning and in relation to the psychological aspects of the investor, it can only be understood as the degree of confidence that the investor has in the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event. Moreover, the concept of objective probability does not consider the inter-temporality that characterizes financial activities and does not consider the condition of limited cognitive capacity of the decision maker. Cognitive psychology has made it possible to understand that the mind acts with a compromise between quality and effort when faced with very complex choices. To evaluate an event that has not yet happened, it is necessary to imagine that it happens in your head. This projection into the future requires a cognitive effort and is what differentiates choices under conditions of risk and choices under conditions of uncertainty. In fact, since the receipt of the outcome in choices under risk conditions is imminent, the mechanism of self-projection into the future is not necessary to imagine the consequence of the choice and the decision makers dwell on the objective analysis of possibilities. Financial activities, on the other hand, develop over time and the objective probability is too static to consider the anticipatory emotions that the self-projection mechanism generates in the investor. Assuming that uncertainty is inherent in valuations of events that have not yet occurred, the focus must shift from risk management to uncertainty management. Only in this way the intertemporal dimension of the decision-making environment and the haste generated by the financial market can be cautioned and considered. The work considers an extension of the prospectus theory with the temporal component with the aim of providing a description of the attitude towards risk with respect to the passage of time.

Keywords: impatience, risk aversion, subjective probability, uncertainty

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