Search results for: Naive Bayesian

Authors: Rady A., Elsheshai A., Eltawel M.

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Introduction and Aim of work: Literature suggest that antipsychotic medications may decrease cortisol level, an effect that seems to be more present with second generation antipsychotic. Our study aims at assessing effect of long term use of antipsychotics on cortisol level Subjects and Methods: 30 chronic schizophrenic patients on antipsychotics compared to 20 drug naive schizophrenic patients as regards serum cortisol level Results: Cortisol level was significantly lower in chronic schizophrenic patients receiving antipsychotics compared to drug naive patients (P=0.002 <0.05) Conclusion: Antipsychotic medications seem to have the potential to decrease cortisol level in blood. Among hypothesis proposed in literature is the good control of pseudo stress due to psychotic features.

Keywords: schizophrenia, antipsychotic, cortisol, HPA

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Authors: Kumar Shashvat, Amol P. Bhondekar

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In the midst of the five senses, odor is the most reminiscent and least understood. Odor testing has been mysterious and odor data fabled to most practitioners. The delinquent of recognition and classification of odor is important to achieve. The facility to smell and predict whether the artifact is of further use or it has become undesirable for consumption; the imitation of this problem hooked on a model is of consideration. The general industrial standard for this classification is color based anyhow; odor can be improved classifier than color based classification and if incorporated in machine will be awfully constructive. For cataloging of odor for peas, trees and cashews various discriminative approaches have been used Discriminative approaches offer good prognostic performance and have been widely used in many applications but are incapable to make effectual use of the unlabeled information. In such scenarios, generative approaches have better applicability, as they are able to knob glitches, such as in set-ups where variability in the series of possible input vectors is enormous. Generative models are integrated in machine learning for either modeling data directly or as a transitional step to form an indeterminate probability density function. The algorithms or models Linear Discriminant Analysis and Naive Bayes Classifier have been used for classification of the odor of cashews. Linear Discriminant Analysis is a method used in data classification, pattern recognition, and machine learning to discover a linear combination of features that typifies or divides two or more classes of objects or procedures. The Naive Bayes algorithm is a classification approach base on Bayes rule and a set of qualified independence theory. Naive Bayes classifiers are highly scalable, requiring a number of restraints linear in the number of variables (features/predictors) in a learning predicament. The main recompenses of using the generative models are generally a Generative Models make stronger assumptions about the data, specifically, about the distribution of predictors given the response variables. The Electronic instrument which is used for artificial odor sensing and classification is an electronic nose. This device is designed to imitate the anthropological sense of odor by providing an analysis of individual chemicals or chemical mixtures. The experimental results have been evaluated in the form of the performance measures i.e. are accuracy, precision and recall. The investigational results have proven that the overall performance of the Linear Discriminant Analysis was better in assessment to the Naive Bayes Classifier on cashew dataset.

Keywords: odor classification, generative models, naive bayes, linear discriminant analysis

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Authors: Ana Staneva, Vessela Stoimenova

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A parametric estimation of the MBP with Power Series offspring distribution family is considered in this paper. The MLE for the parameters is obtained in the case when the observable data are incomplete and consist only with the generation sizes of the family tree of MBP. The parameter estimation is calculated by using the Monte Carlo EM algorithm. The estimation for the posterior distribution and for the offspring distribution parameters are calculated by using the Bayesian approach and the Gibbs sampler. The article proposes various examples with bivariate branching processes together with computational results, simulation and an implementation using R.

Keywords: Bayesian, branching processes, EM algorithm, Gibbs sampler, Monte Carlo methods, statistical estimation

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Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat

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The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.

Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC

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Authors: Jefferson Hernandez, Juan Padilla

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Estimation of price elasticity of demand is a valuable tool for the task of price settling. Given its relevance, it is an active field for microeconomic and statistical research. Price elasticity in the industry of oil and gas, in particular for fuels sold in gas stations, has shown to be a challenging topic given the market and state restrictions, and underlying correlations structures between the types of fuels sold by the same gas station. This paper explores the Lotka-Volterra model for the problem for price elasticity estimation in the context of fuels; in addition, it is introduced multivariate random effects with the purpose of dealing with errors, e.g., measurement or missing data errors. In order to model the underlying correlation structures, the Inverse-Wishart, Hierarchical Half-t and LKJ distributions are studied. Here, the Bayesian paradigm through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for model estimation is considered. Simulation studies covering a wide range of situations were performed in order to evaluate parameter recovery for the proposed models and algorithms. Results revealed that the proposed algorithms recovered quite well all model parameters. Also, a real data set analysis was performed in order to illustrate the proposed approach.

Keywords: price elasticity, volume, correlation structures, Bayesian models

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Authors: Xiping Wang，Shuran Yao, Liqin Dai

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Many studies report the winter is getting warmer and the minimum air temperature is obviously rising as the important climate warming evidences. The exacerbated air temperature fluctuation tending to bring more severe weather variation is another important consequence of recent climate change which induced more disasters to crop growth in quite a certain regions. Hebei Province is an important winter wheat growing province in North of China that recently endures more winter freezing injury influencing the local winter wheat crop management. A winter wheat freezing injury assessment Bayesian Network framework was established for the objectives of estimating, assessing and predicting winter wheat freezing disasters in Hebei Province. In this framework, the freezing disasters was classified as three severity degrees (SI) among all the three types of freezing, i.e., freezing caused by severe cold in anytime in the winter, long extremely cold duration in the winter and freeze-after-thaw in early season after winter. The factors influencing winter wheat freezing SI include time of freezing occurrence, growth status of seedlings, soil moisture, winter wheat variety, the longitude of target region and, the most variable climate factors. The climate factors included in this framework are daily mean and range of air temperature, extreme minimum temperature and number of days during a severe cold weather process, the number of days with the temperature lower than the critical temperature values, accumulated negative temperature in a potential freezing event. The Bayesian Network model was evaluated using actual weather data and crop records at selected sites in Hebei Province using real data. With the multi-stage influences from the various factors, the forecast and assessment of the event-based target variables, freezing injury occurrence and its damage to winter wheat production, were shown better scoped by Bayesian Network model.

Keywords: bayesian networks, climatic change, freezing Injury, winter wheat

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Authors: Rashi Bhalla, Russel Pears, M. Asif Naeem

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In this 'Information Explosion Era' analyzing data 'a critical commodity' and mining knowledge from vertically distributed data stream incurs huge communication cost. However, an effort to decrease the communication in the distributed environment has an adverse influence on the classification accuracy; therefore, a research challenge lies in maintaining a balance between transmission cost and accuracy. This paper proposes a method based on Bayesian inference to reduce the communication volume in a heterogeneous distributed environment while retaining prediction accuracy. Our experimental evaluation reveals that a significant reduction in communication can be achieved across a diverse range of dataset types.

Keywords: big data, bayesian inference, distributed data stream mining, heterogeneous-distributed data

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Authors: Yayun Hsu, Henry Horng-Shing Lu

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This paper proposes a data-driven, biology-inspired neural segmentation method of 3D drosophila Brainbow images. We use Bayesian Sequential Partitioning algorithm for probabilistic modeling, which can be used to detect somas and to eliminate cross talk effects. This work attempts to develop an automatic methodology for neuron image segmentation, which nowadays still lacks a complete solution due to the complexity of the image. The proposed method does not need any predetermined, risk-prone thresholds since biological information is inherently included in the image processing procedure. Therefore, it is less sensitive to variations in neuron morphology; meanwhile, its flexibility would be beneficial for tracing the intertwining structure of neurons.

Keywords: brainbow, 3D imaging, image segmentation, neuron morphology, biological data mining, non-parametric learning

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Authors: Rohini Hariharan, Yazhini R., Blessy Maria Mathew

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The task of detecting email spam is a very important one in the era of digital technology that needs effective ways of curbing unwanted messages. This paper presents an approach aimed at making email spam categorization algorithms transparent, reliable and more trustworthy by incorporating Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME). Our technique assists in providing interpretable explanations for specific classifications of emails to help users understand the decision-making process by the model. In this study, we developed a complete pipeline that incorporates LIME into the spam classification framework and allows creating simplified, interpretable models tailored to individual emails. LIME identifies influential terms, pointing out key elements that drive classification results, thus reducing opacity inherent in conventional machine learning models. Additionally, we suggest a visualization scheme for displaying keywords that will improve understanding of categorization decisions by users. We test our method on a diverse email dataset and compare its performance with various baseline models, such as Gaussian Naive Bayes, Multinomial Naive Bayes, Bernoulli Naive Bayes, Support Vector Classifier, K-Nearest Neighbors, Decision Tree, and Logistic Regression. Our testing results show that our model surpasses all other models, achieving an accuracy of 96.59% and a precision of 99.12%.

Keywords: text classification, LIME (local interpretable model-agnostic explanations), stemming, tokenization, logistic regression.

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Authors: Yohei Saika

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On the basis of Bayesian inference using the maximizer of the posterior marginal estimate, we carry out phase unwrapping using multiple interferograms via generalized mean-field theory. Numerical calculations for a typical wave-front in remote sensing using the synthetic aperture radar interferometry, phase diagram in hyper-parameter space clarifies that the present method succeeds in phase unwrapping perfectly under the constraint of surface- consistency condition, if the interferograms are not corrupted by any noises. Also, we find that prior is useful for extending a phase in which phase unwrapping under the constraint of the surface-consistency condition. These results are quantitatively confirmed by the Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, generalized mean-field theory, phase unwrapping, multiple interferograms, statistical mechanics

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Authors: Zeytu G. Asfaw, Serkalem K. Abrha, Demisew G. Degefu

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Background: HIV/AIDS remains a major public health problem in Ethiopia and heavily affecting people of productive and reproductive age. We aimed to compare the performance of Parametric Survival Analysis and Bayesian Survival Analysis using simulations and in a real dataset application focused on determining predictors of HIV patient survival. Methods: A Parametric Survival Models - Exponential, Weibull, Log-normal, Log-logistic, Gompertz and Generalized gamma distributions were considered. Simulation study was carried out with two different algorithms that were informative and noninformative priors. A retrospective cohort study was implemented for HIV infected patients under Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in Alamata General Hospital, North Ethiopia. Results: A total of 320 HIV patients were included in the study where 52.19% females and 47.81% males. According to Kaplan-Meier survival estimates for the two sex groups, females has shown better survival time in comparison with their male counterparts. The median survival time of HIV patients was 79 months. During the follow-up period 89 (27.81%) deaths and 231 (72.19%) censored individuals registered. The average baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells count for HIV/AIDS patients were 126.01 but after a three-year antiretroviral therapy follow-up the average cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells counts were 305.74, which was quite encouraging. Age, functional status, tuberculosis screen, past opportunistic infection, baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells, World Health Organization clinical stage, sex, marital status, employment status, occupation type, baseline weight were found statistically significant factors for longer survival of HIV patients. The standard error of all covariate in Bayesian log-normal survival model is less than the classical one. Hence, Bayesian survival analysis showed better performance than classical parametric survival analysis, when subjective data analysis was performed by considering expert opinions and historical knowledge about the parameters. Conclusions: Thus, HIV/AIDS patient mortality rate could be reduced through timely antiretroviral therapy with special care on the potential factors. Moreover, Bayesian log-normal survival model was preferable than the classical log-normal survival model for determining predictors of HIV patients survival.

Keywords: antiretroviral therapy (ART), Bayesian analysis, HIV, log-normal, parametric survival models

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Authors: Ahmed O. Babaleye, Rafet E. Kurt

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The global oil and gas industry is beginning to witness an increase in the number of installations moving towards decommissioning. Decommissioning of offshore installations is a complex, costly and hazardous activity, making safety one of the major concerns. Among existing removal options, complete and partial removal options pose the highest risks. Therefore, a dynamic risk model of the accidents from the two options is important to assess the risks on an overall basis. In this study, a risk-based safety model is developed to conduct quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for jacket structure systems failure. Firstly, bow-tie (BT) technique is utilised to model the causal relationship between the system failure and potential accident scenarios. Subsequently, to relax the shortcomings of BT, Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) were established to dynamically assess associated uncertainties and conditional dependencies. The BBN is developed through a similitude mapping of the developed bow-tie. The BBN is used to update the failure probabilities of the contributing elements through diagnostic analysis, thus, providing a case-specific and realistic safety analysis method when compared to a bow-tie. This paper presents the application of dynamic safety analysis to guide the allocation of risk control measures and consequently, drive down the avoidable cost of remediation.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network, offshore decommissioning, dynamic safety model, quantitative risk analysis

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Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

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This paper discusses the effects of using progressive Type-I right censoring on the design of the Simple Step Accelerated Life testing using Bayesian approach for Weibull life products under the assumption of cumulative exposure model. The optimization criterion used in this paper is to minimize the expected pre-posterior variance of the PTH percentile time of failures. The model variables are the stress changing time and the stress value for the first step. A comparison between the conventional and the progressive Type-I right censoring is provided. The results have shown that the progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of testing on the expense of the test precision when the sample size is small. Moreover, the results have shown that using strong priors or large sample size reduces the sensitivity of the test precision to the censoring proportion. Hence, the progressive Type-I right censoring is recommended in these cases as progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of the test and doesn't affect the precision of the test a lot. Moreover, the results have shown that using direct or indirect priors affects the precision of the test.

Keywords: reliability, accelerated life testing, cumulative exposure model, Bayesian estimation, progressive type-I censoring, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Nurullah Buker, Ezgi Karagoz, Yesim Salik Sengul, Sevay Alsen Guney, Gokhan Yoyler, Aylin Ozbek

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Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is one of the most common neurodevelopmental disorders with heterogeneous clinical features such as inattention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity. Many different types of exercise interventions were employed for children with ADHD. However, previous studies have usually examined the effects of non-specific exercise programs or short-term effects of exercise. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of the Neurocognitive Exercise Program (NEP), which is a structured exercise program derived from Life Kinetik, and a relatively new for children with ADHD, on symptoms, attention, and dynamic balance in medication-naïve children with ADHD. Fourteen medication-naive children (7-12 years) with ADHD were included in the intervention group. NEP was performed once a week for ten weeks. The intervention group also performed a structured home exercise program for another six days, for ten weeks. The children in the intervention group were assessed at baseline, in the third month, in the sixth month, and in the twelfth month regarding ADHD-related symptoms, attention, and dynamic balance. Fifteen age-matched typically developing children were assessed once for establishing normative values. Hyperactivity-Impulsivity score and dynamic balance were found to improve after NEP in the ADHD group in the 3rd month (p<0.05). In addition, these results were similar for both groups after NEP and at the end of the 12th month (p>0.05). The NEP may provide beneficial effects on hyperactivity-impulsivity, oppositional defiant, and dynamic balance in children with ADHD, and the improvements may be maintained in the long term.

Keywords: ADHD, attention problems, dynamic balance, neurocognitive exercise

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Authors: Vahid Bayrami Rad

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In this research, common methods and techniques have been investigated with a focus on intelligent fault finding and monitoring systems in the oil industry. In fact, remote and intelligent control methods are considered a necessity for implementing various operations in the oil industry, but benefiting from the knowledge extracted from countless data generated with the help of data mining algorithms. It is a avoid way to speed up the operational process for monitoring and troubleshooting in today's big oil companies. Therefore, by comparing data mining algorithms and checking the efficiency and structure and how these algorithms respond in different conditions, The proposed (Bayesian) algorithm using data clustering and their analysis and data evaluation using a colored Petri net has provided an applicable and dynamic model from the point of view of reliability and response time. Therefore, by using this method, it is possible to achieve a dynamic and consistent model of the remote control system and prevent the occurrence of leakage in oil pipelines and refineries and reduce costs and human and financial errors. Statistical data The data obtained from the evaluation process shows an increase in reliability, availability and high speed compared to other previous methods in this proposed method.

Keywords: wireless sensors, petroleum equipment troubleshooting, Bayesian algorithm, colored Petri net, rapid miner, data mining-reliability

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Authors: Venkat S. Somayajula

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Ground surface temperature history prediction model plays a vital role in determining standards for international nuclear waste management. International standards for borehole based nuclear waste disposal require paleoclimate cycle predictions on scale of a million forward years for the place of waste disposal. This research focuses on developing a paleoclimate cycle prediction model using Bayesian long-short term memory (LSTM) neural architecture operated on accumulated borehole temperature history data. Bayesian models have been previously used for paleoclimate cycle prediction based on Monte-Carlo weight method, but due to limitations pertaining model coupling with certain other prediction networks, Bayesian models in past couldn’t accommodate prediction cycle’s over 1000 years. LSTM has provided frontier to couple developed models with other prediction networks with ease. Paleoclimate cycle developed using this process will be trained on existing borehole data and then will be coupled to surface temperature history prediction networks which give endpoints for backpropagation of LSTM network and optimize the cycle of prediction for larger prediction time scales. Trained LSTM will be tested on past data for validation and then propagated for forward prediction of temperatures at borehole locations. This research will be beneficial for study pertaining to nuclear waste management, anthropological cycle predictions and geophysical features

Keywords: Bayesian long-short term memory neural network, borehole temperature, ground surface temperature history, paleoclimate cycle

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Authors: Kong Ngai Pei

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The argument scheme approach to argumentation has two components. One is to identify the recurrent patterns of inferences used in everyday discourse. The second is to devise critical questions to evaluate the inferences in these patterns. Although this approach is intuitive and contains many insightful ideas, it has been noted to be not free of problems. One is that due to its disavowing the probability calculus, it cannot give the exact strength of an inference. In order to tackle this problem, thereby paving the way to a more complete normative account of argument strength, it has been proposed, the most promising way is to combine the scheme-based approach with Bayesian networks (BNs). This paper pursues this line of thought, attempting to combine three common schemes, Appeal to Ignorance, Composition, and Division, with BNs. In the first part, it is argued that most (if not all) formulations of the critical questions corresponding to these schemes in the current argumentation literature are incomplete and not very informative. To remedy these flaws, more thorough and precise formulations of these questions are provided. In the second part, how to use graphical idioms (e.g. measurement and synthesis idioms) to translate the schemes as well as their corresponding critical questions to graphical structure of BNs, and how to define probability tables of the nodes using functions of various sorts are shown. In the final part, it is argued that many misuses of these schemes, traditionally called fallacies with the same names as the schemes, can indeed be adequately accounted for by the BN models proposed in this paper.

Keywords: appeal to ignorance, argument schemes, Bayesian networks, composition, division

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Authors: Ana Corberan-Vallet, Karen C. Florez, Ingrid C. Marino, Jose D. Bermudez

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In 2016, the Region of the Americas was declared free of measles, a viral disease that can cause severe health problems. However, since 2017, measles has reemerged in Venezuela and has subsequently reached neighboring countries. In 2018, twelve American countries reported confirmed cases of measles. Governmental and health authorities in Colombia, a country that shares the longest land boundary with Venezuela, are aware of the need for a strong response to restrict the expanse of the epidemic. In this work, we apply a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model with an underlying cluster structure to describe disease incidence in Colombia. Concretely, the proposed methodology provides relative risk estimates at the department level and identifies clusters of disease, which facilitates the implementation of targeted public health interventions. Socio-demographic factors, such as the percentage of migrants, gross domestic product, and entry routes, are included in the model to better describe the incidence of disease. Since the model does not impose any spatial correlation at any level of the model hierarchy, it avoids the spatial confounding problem and provides a suitable framework to estimate the fixed-effect coefficients associated with spatially-structured covariates.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis, cluster identification, disease mapping, risk estimation

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Authors: Ebru Acuner, Gulgun Kayakutlu, M. Ozgur Kayalica, Sermin Onaygil

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In Turkey, emigration, especially from Syria, has been continuously increasing together with rapid urbanization. In parallel to this, total energy consumption has been growing, rapidly. Unfortunately, domestic energy sources could not meet this energy demand. Hence, there is a need for reliable predictions. For this reason, before making a survey study for the migrated people, an informative questionnaire was prepared to take the opinions of the experts on the main drivers that shape the energy consumption behavior of the migrated people. Totally, 17 experts were answered, and they were analyzed by means of Netica program considering Bayesian belief analysis method. In the analysis, factors affecting energy consumption behaviors as well as strategies, institutions, tools and financing methods to change these behaviors towards efficient consumption were investigated. On the basis of the results, it can be concluded that changing the energy consumption behavior of the migrated people is crucial. In order to be successful, electricity and natural gas prices and tariffs in the market should be arranged considering energy efficiency. In addition, support mechanisms by not only the government but also municipalities should be taken into account while preparing related policies. Also, electric appliance producers should develop and implement strategies and action in favor of the usage of more efficient appliances. Last but not least, non-governmental organizations should support the migrated people to improve their awareness on the efficient consumption for the sustainable future.

Keywords: Bayesian belief, behavior, energy consumption, energy efficiency, migrated people

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Authors: Ratun Rahman, Rafid Islam, Akin Ahmed, Kamrul Hasan, Hasan Mahmud

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Malware is becoming more prevalent, and several threat categories have risen dramatically in recent years. This paper provides a bird's-eye view of the world of malware analysis. The efficiency of five different machine learning methods (Naive Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbor, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and TensorFlow Decision Forest) combined with features picked from the retrieval of Android permissions to categorize applications as harmful or benign is investigated in this study. The test set consists of 1,168 samples (among these android applications, 602 are malware and 566 are benign applications), each consisting of 948 features (permissions). Using the permission-based dataset, the machine learning algorithms then produce accuracy rates above 80%, except the Naive Bayes Algorithm with 65% accuracy. Of the considered algorithms TensorFlow Decision Forest performed the best with an accuracy of 90%.

Keywords: android malware detection, machine learning, malware, malware analysis

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Authors: G. S. Thyagaraju, U. P. Kulkarni

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Context-aware computing refers to a general class of computing systems that can sense their physical environment, and adapt their behaviour accordingly. Context aware computing makes systems aware of situations of interest, enhances services to users, automates systems and personalizes applications. Context-aware services have been introduced into mobile devices, such as PDA and mobile phones. In this paper we are presenting a novel approaches used to realize the context aware mobile. The context aware mobile phone (CAMP) proposed in this paper senses the users situation automatically and provides user context required services. The proposed system is developed by using artificial intelligence techniques like Bayesian Network, fuzzy logic and rough sets theory based decision table. Bayesian Network to classify the incoming call (high priority call, low priority call and unknown calls), fuzzy linguistic variables and membership degrees to define the context situations, the decision table based rules for service recommendation. To exemplify and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods, the context aware mobile phone is tested for college campus scenario including different locations like library, class room, meeting room, administrative building and college canteen.

Keywords: context aware mobile, fuzzy logic, decision table, Bayesian probability

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Authors: Sahar Dehghan, Yeganeh Mousavi Jahromi, Ghahraman Abdoli

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Since tax revenues are one of the most important sources of government revenue, it is essential to consider increasing taxpayers' compliance. One of the factors that can affect the taxpayers' compliance is the structure of the crimes and incentives envisaged in the tax law. In this research, by using the 'prospect theory', the effects of changes in the rate of crimes and the tax incentive in the direct tax law on the taxpayer’s compliance behavior have been investigated. To determine the preferences and preferences of taxpayer’s in the business sector and their degree of sensitivity to fines and incentives, a questionnaire with mixed gamble structure is designed. Estimated results using the Hierarchical Bayesian method indicate that the taxpayer’s that have been tested in this study are more sensitive to the incentives in the direct tax law, and the tax administration can use this to increase the level of collected tax and increase the level of compliance.

Keywords: tax compliance, prospect theory, value function, mixed gamble

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Authors: Akalu Banbeta, Emmanuel Lesaffre, Reynaldo Martina, Joost Van Rosmalen

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Including data from previous studies (historical data) in the analysis of the current study may reduce the sample size requirement and/or increase the power of analysis. The most common example is incorporating historical control data in the analysis of a current clinical trial. However, this only applies when the historical control dataare similar enough to the current control data. Recently, several Bayesian approaches for incorporating historical data have been proposed, such as the meta-analytic-predictive (MAP) prior and the modified power prior (MPP) both for single control as well as for multiple historical control arms. Here, we examine the performance of the MAP and the MPP approaches for the analysis of (over-dispersed) count data. To this end, we propose a computational method for the MPP approach for the Poisson and the negative binomial models. We conducted an extensive simulation study to assess the performance of Bayesian approaches. Additionally, we illustrate our approaches on an overactive bladder data set. For similar data across the control arms, the MPP approach outperformed the MAP approach with respect to thestatistical power. When the means across the control arms are different, the MPP yielded a slightly inflated type I error (TIE) rate, whereas the MAP did not. In contrast, when the dispersion parameters are different, the MAP gave an inflated TIE rate, whereas the MPP did not.We conclude that the MPP approach is more promising than the MAP approach for incorporating historical count data.

Keywords: count data, meta-analytic prior, negative binomial, poisson

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Authors: G. Medkour Ishak-Boushaki, A. Taibi, M. Allab

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Quantitative environmental radioactivity measurements are needed to determine the level of exposure of a population to ionizing radiations and for the assessment of the associated risks. Gamma spectrometry remains a very powerful tool for the analysis of radionuclides present in an environmental sample but the basic problem in such measurements is the low rate of detected events. Using large environmental samples could help to get around this difficulty but, unfortunately, new issues are raised by gamma rays attenuation and self-absorption. Recently, a new method has been suggested, to detect and identify without quantification, in a short time, a gamma ray of a low count source. This method does not require, as usually adopted in gamma spectrometry measurements, a pulse height spectrum acquisition. It is based on a chronological record of each detected photon by simultaneous measurements of its energy ε and its arrival time τ on the detector, the pair parameters [ε,τ] defining an event mode sequence (EMS). The EMS serials are analyzed sequentially by a Bayesian approach to detect the presence of a given radioactive source. The main object of the present work is to test the applicability of this sequential approach in radioactive environmental materials detection. Moreover, for an appropriate health oversight of the public and of the concerned workers, the analysis has been extended to get a reliable quantification of the radionuclides present in environmental samples. For illustration, we consider as an example, the problem of detection and quantification of 238U. Monte Carlo simulated experience is carried out consisting in the detection, by a Ge(Hp) semiconductor junction, of gamma rays of 63 keV emitted by 234Th (progeny of 238U). The generated EMS serials are analyzed by a Bayesian inference. The application of the sequential Bayesian approach, in environmental radioactivity analysis, offers the possibility of reducing the measurements time without requiring large environmental samples and consequently avoids the attached inconvenient. The work is still in progress.

Keywords: Bayesian approach, event mode sequence, gamma spectrometry, Monte Carlo method

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Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

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In this paper, we describe how to achieve knowledge understanding and prediction (Situation Awareness (SA)) for multiple-agents conducting searching activity using Bayesian inferential reasoning and learning. Bayesian Belief Network was used to monitor agents' knowledge about their environment, and cases are recorded for the network training using expectation-maximisation or gradient descent algorithm. The well trained network will be used for decision making and environmental situation prediction. Forest fire searching by multiple UAVs was the use case. UAVs are tasked to explore a forest and find a fire for urgent actions by the fire wardens. The paper focused on two problems: (i) effective agents’ path planning strategy and (ii) knowledge understanding and prediction (SA). The path planning problem by inspiring animal mode of foraging using Lévy distribution augmented with Bayesian reasoning was fully described in this paper. Results proof that the Lévy flight strategy performs better than the previous fixed-pattern (e.g., parallel sweeps) approaches in terms of energy and time utilisation. We also introduced a waypoint assessment strategy called k-previous waypoints assessment. It improves the performance of the ordinary levy flight by saving agent’s resources and mission time through redundant search avoidance. The agents (UAVs) are to report their mission knowledge at the central server for interpretation and prediction purposes. Bayesian reasoning and learning were used for the SA and results proof effectiveness in different environments scenario in terms of prediction and effective knowledge representation. The prediction accuracy was measured using learning error rate, logarithm loss, and Brier score and the result proves that little agents mission that can be used for prediction within the same or different environment. Finally, we described a situation-based knowledge visualization and prediction technique for heterogeneous multi-UAV mission. While this paper proves linkage of Bayesian reasoning and learning with SA and effective searching strategy, future works is focusing on simplifying the architecture.

Keywords: Levy flight, distributed constraint optimization problem, multi-agent system, multi-robot coordination, autonomous system, swarm intelligence

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Authors: Heiko Jessen, Laura Tanus, Slobodan Ruzicic

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Objectives: The efficacy of Stribild®, an integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) -based STR, has been evaluated in randomized clinical trials and it has demonstrated durable capability in terms of achieving sustained suppression of HIV-1 RNA-levels. However, differences in monitoring frequency, existing selection bias and profile of patients enrolled in the trials, may all result in divergent efficacy of this regimen in routine clinical settings. The aim of this study was to assess the virologic outcomes, safety and tolerability profile of Stribild® in a routine clinical setting. Methods: This was a retrospective monocentric analysis on HIV-1-infected patients, who started with or were switched to Stribild®. Virological failure (VF) was defined as confirmed HIV-RNA>50 copies/ml. The minimum time of follow-up was 24 weeks. The percentage of patients remaining free of therapeutic failure was estimated using the time-to-loss-of-virologic-response (TLOVR) algorithm, by intent-to-treat analysis. Results: We analyzed the data of 197 patients (56 ART-naïve and 141 treatment-experienced patients), who fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Majority (95.9%) of patients were male. The median time of HIV-infection at baseline was 2 months in treatment-naïve and 70 months in treatment-experienced patients. Median time [IQR] under ART in treatment-experienced patients was 37 months. Among the treatment-experienced patients 27.0% had already been treated with a regimen consisting of two NRTIs and one INSTI, whereas 18.4% of them experienced a VF. The median time [IQR] of virological suppression prior to therapy with Stribild® in the treatment-experienced patients was 10 months [0-27]. At the end of follow-up (median 33 months), 87.3% (95% CI, 83.5-91.2) of treatment-naïve and 80.3% (95% CI, 75.8-84.8) of treatment-experienced patients remained free of therapeutic failure. Considering only treatment-experienced patients with baseline VL<50 copies/ml, 83.0% (95% CI, 78.5-87.5) remained free of therapeutic failure. A total of 17 patients stopped treatment with Stribild®, 5.4% (3/56) of them were treatment-naïve and 9.9% (14/141) were treatment-experienced patients. The Stribild® therapy was discontinued in 2 (1.0%) because of VF, loss to follow-up in 4 (2.0%), and drug-drug interactions in 2 (1.0%) patients. Adverse events were in 7 (3.6%) patients the reason to switch from therapy with Stribild® and further 2 (1.0%) patients decided personally to switch. The most frequently observed adverse events were gastrointestinal side effects (20.0%), headache (8%), rash events (7%) and dizziness (6%). In two patients we observed an emergence of novel resistances in integrase-gene. The N155H evolved in one patient and resulted in VF. In another patient S119R evolved either during or shortly upon switch from therapy with Stribild®. In one further patient with VF two novel mutations in the RT-gene were observed when compared to historical genotypic test result (V106I/M and M184V), whereby it is not clear whether they evolved during or already before the switch to Stribild®. Conclusions: Effectiveness of Stribild® for treatment-naïve patients was consistent with data obtained in clinical trials. The safety and tolerability profile as well as resistance development confirmed clinical efficacy of Stribild® in a daily practice setting.

Keywords: ART, HIV, integrase inhibitor, stribild

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Authors: Muthukumarasamy Govindarajan

Abstract:

Detection of unwanted, unsolicited mails called spam from email is an interesting area of research. It is necessary to evaluate the performance of any new spam classifier using standard data sets. Recently, ensemble-based classifiers have gained popularity in this domain. In this research work, an efficient email filtering approach based on ensemble methods is addressed for developing an accurate and sensitive spam classifier. The proposed approach employs Naive Bayes (NB), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) as base classifiers along with different ensemble methods. The experimental results show that the ensemble classifier was performing with accuracy greater than individual classifiers, and also hybrid model results are found to be better than the combined models for the e-mail dataset. The proposed ensemble-based classifiers turn out to be good in terms of classification accuracy, which is considered to be an important criterion for building a robust spam classifier.

Keywords: accuracy, arcing, bagging, genetic algorithm, Naive Bayes, sentiment mining, support vector machine

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Authors: Muhammad Farooq, Ahtasham Gul

Abstract:

To meet the desired standard, it is important to monitor and analyze different engineering processes to get desired output. The bivariate distributions got a lot of attention in recent years to describe the randomness of natural as well as artificial mechanisms. In this article, a bivariate model is constructed using two independent models developed by the nesting approach to study the effect of each component on reliability for better understanding. Further, the Bayes analysis of system availability is studied by considering prior parametric variations in the failure time and repair time distributions. Basic statistical characteristics of marginal distribution, like mean median and quantile function, are discussed. We use inverse Gamma prior to study its frequentist properties by conducting Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) sampling scheme.

Keywords: reliability, system availability Weibull, inverse Lomax, Monte Carlo Markov Chain, Bayesian

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Authors: Li Qiang, Yang Ze-Ming, Liu Bao-Xu, Jiang Zheng-Wei

Abstract:

With the increasing complexity of cyberspace security, the cyber-attack attribution has become an important challenge of the security protection systems. The difficult points of cyber-attack attribution were forced on the problems of huge data handling and key data missing. According to this situation, this paper presented a reasoning method of cyber-attack attribution based on threat intelligence. The method utilizes the intrusion kill chain model and Bayesian network to build attack chain and evidence chain of cyber-attack on threat intelligence platform through data calculation, analysis and reasoning. Then, we used a number of cyber-attack events which we have observed and analyzed to test the reasoning method and demo system, the result of testing indicates that the reasoning method can provide certain help in cyber-attack attribution.

Keywords: reasoning, Bayesian networks, cyber-attack attribution, Kill Chain, threat intelligence

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Authors: Chalachew Gashu, Yoseph Kassa, Habtamu Geremew, Mengestie Mulugeta

Abstract:

Background and Aims: Severe acute malnutrition remains a significant health challenge, particularly in low‐ and middle‐income countries. The aim of this study was to determine the survival time of under‐five children with severe acute malnutrition. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted at a hospital, focusing on under‐five children with severe acute malnutrition. The study included 322 inpatients admitted to the Chiro hospital in Chiro, Ethiopia, between September 2019 and August 2020, whose data was obtained from medical records. Survival functions were analyzed using Kaplan‒Meier plots and log‐rank tests. The survival time of severe acute malnutrition was further analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards model and Bayesian parametric survival models, employing integrated nested Laplace approximation methods. Results: Among the 322 patients, 118 (36.6%) died as a result of severe acute malnutrition. The estimated median survival time for inpatients was found to be 2 weeks. Model selection criteria favored the Bayesian Weibull accelerated failure time model, which demonstrated that age, body temperature, pulse rate, nasogastric (NG) tube usage, hypoglycemia, anemia, diarrhea, dehydration, malaria, and pneumonia significantly influenced the survival time of severe acute malnutrition. Conclusions: This study revealed that children below 24 months, those with altered body temperature and pulse rate, NG tube usage, hypoglycemia, and comorbidities such as anemia, diarrhea, dehydration, malaria, and pneumonia had a shorter survival time when affected by severe acute malnutrition under the age of five. To reduce the death rate of children under 5 years of age, it is necessary to design community management for acute malnutrition to ensure early detection and improve access to and coverage for children who are malnourished.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis, severe acute malnutrition, survival data analysis, survival time

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