Search results for: Lithuania market outputs
3742 Financial Portfolio Optimization in Electricity Markets: Evaluation via Sharpe Ratio
Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca
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Electricity plays an indispensable role in human life and the economy. It is a unique product or service that must be balanced instantaneously, as electricity is not stored, generation and consumption should be proportional. Effective and efficient use of electricity is very important not only for society, but also for the environment. A competitive electricity market is one of the best ways to provide a suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. On the other hand, it carries some risks that should be carefully managed by the market players. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Markowitz’s Mean-variance, Down-side and Semi-variance methods for a case study. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and the optimal portfolio solutions are improved. Two years of historical weekdays’ price data of the Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.Keywords: electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management in electricity market, sharpe ratio
Procedia PDF Downloads 3513741 Immigration and Gender Equality – An Analysis of the Labor Market Characteristics of Turkish Migrants Living in Germany
Authors: C. Asarkaya, S. Z. Siretioglu Girgin
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Turkish migrants constitute the largest group among people with migration background living in Germany. Turkish women’s labor market participation is of significant importance for their social and economic integration to the German society. This paper thus aims to investigate their labor market positions. Turkish migrant women participate less in the labor market compared to men, and are responsible for most of the housework, child care, and elderly care. This is due to their traditional roles in the family, educational level, insufficient knowledge of German language, and insufficient professional experience. We strongly recommend that wide-reaching integration policies for women are formulated, so as to encourage participation of not only migrant women but also their husbands, fathers and/or brothers, and natives.Keywords: empowerment, Germany, labor market, migration, Turkish, women
Procedia PDF Downloads 4833740 Internal Capital Market Efficiency Study Based on Improved Cash Flow Sensitivity Coefficient - Take Tomorrow Group as an Example
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Because of the difficulty of financing from the external capital market, the reorganization and merger of private enterprises have formed a family group, seeking the help of the internal capital market to alleviate the capital demand. However, the inefficiency of the internal capital market can damage the effect it should have played, and even hinder the development of enterprises. This paper takes the "Tomorrow Group" as the research object to carry on the case analysis. After using the improved cash flow sensitivity coefficient to measure the efficiency of the internal capital market of Tomorrow Group, the inefficiency phenomenon is found. Then the analysis reveals that the reasons for its inefficiency include that the pyramidal equity structure is conducive to control, the separation of cash flow rights and control rights, the concentration of equity leads to poor balance, the abandonment of real industries and information asymmetry.Keywords: tomorrow group, internal capital market, related-party transactions, Baotou tomorrow technology Co., LTD
Procedia PDF Downloads 1233739 Valuing Social Sustainability in Agriculture: An Approach Based on Social Outputs’ Shadow Prices
Authors: Amer Ait Sidhoum
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Interest in sustainability has gained ground among practitioners, academics and policy-makers due to growing stakeholders’ awareness of environmental and social concerns. This is particularly true for agriculture. However, relatively little research has been conducted on the quantification of social sustainability and the contribution of social issues to the agricultural production efficiency. This research's main objective is to propose a method for evaluating prices of social outputs, more precisely shadow prices, by allowing for the stochastic nature of agricultural production that is to say for production uncertainty. In this article, the assessment of social outputs’ shadow prices is conducted within the methodological framework of nonparametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). An output-oriented directional distance function (DDF) is implemented to represent the technology of a sample of Catalan arable crop farms and derive the efficiency scores the overall production technology of our sample is assumed to be the intersection of two different sub-technologies. The first sub-technology models the production of random desirable agricultural outputs, while the second sub-technology reflects the social outcomes from agricultural activities. Once a nonparametric production technology has been represented, the DDF primal approach can be used for efficiency measurement, while shadow prices are drawn from the dual representation of the DDF. Computing shadow prices is a method to assign an economic value to non-marketed social outcomes. Our research uses cross sectional, farm-level data collected in 2015 from a sample of 180 Catalan arable crop farms specialized in the production of cereals, oilseeds and protein (COP) crops. Our results suggest that our sample farms show high performance scores, from 85% for the bad state of nature to 88% for the normal and ideal crop growing conditions. This suggests that farm performance is increasing with an improvement in crop growth conditions. Results also show that average shadow prices of desirable state-contingent output and social outcomes for efficient and inefficient farms are positive, suggesting that the production of desirable marketable outputs and of non-marketable outputs makes a positive contribution to the farm production efficiency. Results also indicate that social outputs’ shadow prices are contingent upon the growing conditions. The shadow prices follow an upward trend as crop-growing conditions improve. This finding suggests that these efficient farms prefer to allocate more resources in the production of desirable outputs than of social outcomes. To our knowledge, this study represents the first attempt to compute shadow prices of social outcomes while accounting for the stochastic nature of the production technology. Our findings suggest that the decision-making process of the efficient farms in dealing with social issues are stochastic and strongly dependent on the growth conditions. This implies that policy-makers should adjust their instruments according to the stochastic environmental conditions. An optimal redistribution of rural development support, by increasing the public payment with the improvement in crop growth conditions, would likely enhance the effectiveness of public policies.Keywords: data envelopment analysis, shadow prices, social sustainability, sustainable farming
Procedia PDF Downloads 1143738 Estimating the Volatilite of Stock Markets in Case of Financial Crisis
Authors: Gultekin Gurcay
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In this paper, effects and responses of stock were analyzed. This analysis was done periodically. The dimensions of the financial crisis impact on the stock market were investigated by GARCH model. In this context, S&P 500 stock market is modeled with DAX, NIKKEI and BIST100. In this way, The effects of the changing in S&P 500 stock market were examined on European and Asian stock markets. Conditional variance coefficient will be calculated through garch model. The scope of the crisis period, the conditional covariance coefficient will be analyzed comparatively.Keywords: conditional variance coefficient, financial crisis, garch model, stock market
Procedia PDF Downloads 2863737 On the Importance of Quality, Liquidity Level and Liquidity Risk: A Markov-Switching Regime Approach
Authors: Tarik Bazgour, Cedric Heuchenne, Danielle Sougne
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We examine time variation in the market beta of portfolios sorted on quality, liquidity level and liquidity beta characteristics across stock market phases. Using US stock market data for the period 1970-2010, we find, first, the US stock market was driven by four regimes. Second, during the crisis regime, low (high) quality, high (low) liquidity beta and illiquid (liquid) stocks exhibit an increase (a decrease) in their market betas. This finding is consistent with the flight-to-quality and liquidity phenomena. Third, we document the same pattern across stocks when the market volatility is low. We argue that, during low volatility times, investors shift their portfolios towards low quality and illiquid stocks to seek portfolio gains. The pattern observed in the tranquil regime can be, therefore, explained by a flight-to-low-quality and to illiquidity. Finally, our results reveal that liquidity level is more important than liquidity beta during the crisis regime.Keywords: financial crises, quality, liquidity, liquidity risk, regime-switching models
Procedia PDF Downloads 3933736 Fama French Four Factor Model: A Study of Nifty Fifty Companies
Authors: Deeksha Arora
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The study aims to explore the applicability of the widely used asset pricing models, namely, Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Fama-French Four Factor Model in the Indian equity market. The study will be based on the companies that form part of the Nifty Fifty Index for a period of five years: 2011 to 2016. The asset pricing model is examined by forming portfolios on the basis of three variables – market capitalization (size effect), book-to-market equity ratio (value effect) and profitability. The study provides a basis to test the presence of the Fama-French Four factor model in Indian stock market. This study may provide a basis for future research in the generalized asset pricing model comprising of multiple risk factors.Keywords: book to market equity, Fama French four factor model, market capitalization, profitability, size effect, value effect
Procedia PDF Downloads 2513735 Legal Disputes of Disclosure and Transparency under Kuwaiti Capital Market Authority Law
Authors: Mohammad A. R. S. Almutairi
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This study will provide the introduction that constitutes the problem cornerstone of legal disputes of disclosure and transparency under Kuwaiti Capital market authority Law No. 7 of 2010. It also will discuss the reasons for the emergence of corporate governance and its purposes in the Capital Market Authority Law in Kuwait. In addition, it will show the legal disputes resulting from the unclear concept of disclosure and interest and will discuss the main reasons in support of the possible solution. In addition, this study will argue why the Capital Market Authority Law in Kuwait needs a clear concept and a straight structure of disclosure under section 100. This study will demonstrate why a clear disclosure is led to a better application of the law. This study will demonstrate the fairness in applying the law regarding the punishment against individual, companies and securities market. Furthermore, it will discuss added confidence between investors and the stock market with a clear concept under section 100. Finally, it will summarize arises problem and possible solution.Keywords: corporate governors, disclosure, transparency, fairness
Procedia PDF Downloads 1313734 Performance of Environmental Efficiency of Energy Consumption in OPEC Countries
Authors: Bahram Fathi, Mahdi Khodaparast Mashhadi, Masuod Homayounifar
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Global awareness on energy security and climate change has created much interest in assessing energy efficiency performance. A number of previous studies have contributed to evaluate energy efficiency performance using different analytical techniques among which data envelopment analysis (DEA) has recently received increasing attention. Most of DEA-related energy efficiency studies do not consider undesirable outputs such as CO2 emissions in their modeling framework, which may lead to biased energy efficiency values. Within a joint production frame work of desirable and undesirable outputs, in this paper we construct energy efficiency performance index for measuring energy efficiency performance by using environmental DEA model with CO2 emissions. We finally apply the index proposed to assess the energy efficiency performance in OPEC over time.Keywords: energy efficiency, environmental, OPEC, data envelopment analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 3783733 The Impact of Bitcoin on Stock Market Performance
Authors: Oliver Takawira, Thembi Hope
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This study will analyse the relationship between Bitcoin price movements and the Johannesburg stock exchange (JSE). The aim is to determine whether Bitcoin price movements affect the stock market performance. As crypto currencies continue to gain prominence as a safe asset during periods of economic distress, this raises the question of whether Bitcoin’s prosperity could affect investment in the stock market. To identify the existence of a short run and long run linear relationship, the study will apply the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) bounds test and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) after testing the data for unit roots and cointegration using the Augmented Dicker Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP). The Non-Linear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) will then be used to check if there is a non-linear relationship between bitcoin prices and stock market prices.Keywords: bitcoin, stock market, interest rates, ARDL
Procedia PDF Downloads 943732 Combined Effect of Heat Stimulation and Delay Addition of Superplasticizer with Slag on Fresh and Hardened Property of Mortar
Authors: Antoni Wibowo, Harry Pujianto, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro
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The stock market can provide huge profits in a relatively short time in financial sector; however, it also has a high risk for investors and traders if they are not careful to look the factors that affect the stock market. Therefore, they should give attention to the dynamic fluctuations and movements of the stock market to optimize profits from their investment. In this paper, we present a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) to predict the movements of stock market; especially, the movements of the closing price index. As case study, we consider to predict the movement of the closing price in Indonesia composite index (IHSG) and choose the best structures of NARX for IHSG’s prediction.Keywords: NARX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Model), prediction, stock market, time series
Procedia PDF Downloads 2353731 Untapped Market of Islamic Pension Fund: Muslim Attitude and Expectation
Authors: Yunice Karina Tumewang
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As we have seen, the number of Muslim and their awareness toward financial products and services that conform to Islamic principles are growing rapidly today. Thus, it makes the market environment potentially beneficial for Shari-compliant funds with the expanding prospective client base. However, over the last decade, only small portion of this huge potential market has been covered by the established Islamic asset management firms. This study aims to examine the factors of this untapped market particularly in the demand side. This study will use the qualitative method with primary data through a questionnaire distributed to 500 samples of Muslim population. It will shed light on Muslim attitudes and expectations toward Sharia-compliant retirement planning and pensions. It will also help to raise the awareness of market players to see Islamic pension fund as a promising industry in the foreseeable future.Keywords: Islamic marketing, Islamic finance, Islamic asset management, Islamic pension fund
Procedia PDF Downloads 3323730 Wheat Production and Market in Afghanistan
Authors: Fayiz Saifurahman, Noori Fida Mohammad
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Afghanistan produces the highest rate of wheat, it is the first source of food, and food security in Afghanistan is dependent on the availability of wheat. Although Afghanistan is the main producer of wheat, on the other hand, Afghanistan is the largest importers of flour. The objective of this study is to assess the structure and dynamics of the wheat market in Afghanistan, can compute with foreign markets, and increase the level of production. To complete this, a broad series of secondary data was complied with, group discussions and interviews with farmers, agricultural and market experts. The research findings propose that; the government should adopt different policies to support the local market. The government should distribute the seed, support financially and technically to increase wheat production.Keywords: Afghanistan, wheat, production , import
Procedia PDF Downloads 1533729 Structural Breaks, Asymmetric Effects and Long Memory in the Volatility of Turkey Stock Market
Authors: Serpil Türkyılmaz, Mesut Balıbey
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In this study, long memory properties in volatility of Turkey Stock Market are being examined through the FIGARCH, FIEGARCH and FIAPARCH models under different distribution assumptions as normal and skewed student-t distributions. Furthermore, structural changes in volatility of Turkey Stock Market are investigated. The results display long memory property and the presence of asymmetric effects of shocks in volatility of Turkey Stock Market.Keywords: FIAPARCH model, FIEGARCH model, FIGARCH model, structural break
Procedia PDF Downloads 2873728 Crude Oil and Stocks Markets: Prices and Uncertainty Transmission Analysis
Authors: Kamel Malik Bensafta, Gervasio Semedo
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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between oil prices and socks markets. The empirical analysis in this paper is conducted within the context of Multivariate GARCH models, using a transform version of the so-called BEKK parameterization. We show that mean and uncertainty of US market are transmitted to oil market and European market. We also identify an important transmission from WTI prices to Brent Prices.Keywords: oil volatility, stock markets, MGARCH, transmission, structural break
Procedia PDF Downloads 5123727 Parabolic Impact Law of High Frequency Exchanges on Price Formation in Commodities Market
Authors: L. Maiza, A. Cantagrel, M. Forestier, G. Laucoin, T. Regali
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Evaluation of High Frequency Trading (HFT) impact on financial markets is very important for traders who use market analysis to detect winning transaction opportunity. Analysis of HFT data on tobacco commodity market is discussed here and interesting linear relationship has been shown between trading frequency and difference between averaged trading prices above and below considered trading frequency. This may open new perspectives on markets data understanding and could provide possible interpretation of Adam Smith invisible hand.Keywords: financial market, high frequency trading, analysis, impacts, Adam Smith invisible hand
Procedia PDF Downloads 3483726 Application of Benford's Law in Analysis of Frankfurt Stock Exchange Index (DAX) Percentage Changes
Authors: Mario Zgela
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Application of Benford’s Law is very rarely covered in the field of stock market analysis, especially in percentage change of stock market indices. Deutscher Aktien IndeX (DAX) is very important stock market index of Frankfurt Deutsche Börse which serves as underlying basis for large number of financial instruments. It is calculated for selected 30 German blue chips stocks. In this paper, Benford's Law first digit test is applied on 10 year DAX daily percentage changes in order to check compliance. Deviations of 10 year DAX percentage changes set as well as distortions of certain subsets from Benford's Law distribution are detected. It is possible that deviations are the outcome of speculations; and psychological influence should not be eliminated.Keywords: Benford's Law, DAX, index percentage changes, stock market
Procedia PDF Downloads 2793725 A Study of Tourists Satisfaction and Behavior Strategies Case Study: International Tourists in Chatuchak Weekend Market
Authors: Weera Weerasophon
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The purpose of this research was to study Tourists’s satisfaction strategies case of Tourists who attended and shopped in Chatuchak weekend market (Bangkok) in order to improve service operation of Chatuchak weekend market to serve tourists’ need to impress them. The researcher used the marketing mix as a main factor that affect to tourist satisfaction. This research was emphasized as quantitative research as 400 of questionnaires were used for collecting the data from international tourists around Chatuchak weekend market that questionnaires divided in to 3 parts as a personal information part, satisfaction of marketing/services and facilities and suggestion part. After collecting all the data that would be processed in statistic program of SPSS to use for analyze the data later on. The result is described that most of international tourists satisfied Chatuchak weekend market in the level of 4 as more satisfaction for example friendly staff, Chatuchak information, price of product, facilities and service by the way, the environment of Chatuchak weekend market is the most satisfaction level.Keywords: Chatuchak, satisfaction, Thailand tourism, marketing mix, tourists
Procedia PDF Downloads 3523724 The Relationship between Employee Commitment, Job Satisfaction and External Market Orientation in Vietnamese Joint-Stock Commercial Banks
Authors: Nguyen Ngoc Que Tran
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Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between internal market orientation, external market orientation, employee commitment and job satisfaction. Design/methodology/approach: This study collected data through a survey and utilized simple linear regression and multiple regression analysis to determine if there was any support for the research hypotheses as presented in the previous chapter. Findings: Using data from 256 employees of four leading joint stock banks in Vietnam, the empirical results indicates that employee commitment is positively related with external market orientation, job satisfaction is positively related to employee commitment, and employee commitment and job satisfaction are positively related to external market orientation. However, job satisfaction has no significant positive effect on external market orientation. Theoretical contribution: The primary contribution to marketing theory arising from this study is the integration of job satisfaction, employee commitment, and external market orientation in a single research model. Practical implications: The major contribution to practice is an external market oriented bank has to respond rapidly to the future needs and preferences of its customers. This could result in high levels of commitment to the service process and in doing so provide Vietnamese joint-stock commercial banks with a competitive advantage. The finding is important for the banking service sector in general and the Vietnamese banking industry in particular.Keywords: employee commitment, job satisfaction and external market orientation, vietnam, bank
Procedia PDF Downloads 4013723 Artificial Intelligence Methods for Returns Expectations in Financial Markets
Authors: Yosra Mefteh Rekik, Younes Boujelbene
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We introduce in this paper a new conceptual model representing the stock market dynamics. This model is essentially based on cognitive behavior of the intelligence investors. In order to validate our model, we build an artificial stock market simulation based on agent-oriented methodologies. The proposed simulator is composed of market supervisor agent essentially responsible for executing transactions via an order book and various kinds of investor agents depending to their profile. The purpose of this simulation is to understand the influence of psychological character of an investor and its neighborhood on its decision-making and their impact on the market in terms of price fluctuations. Therefore, the difficulty of the prediction is due to several features: the complexity, the non-linearity and the dynamism of the financial market system, as well as the investor psychology. The Artificial Neural Networks learning mechanism take on the role of traders, who from their futures return expectations and place orders based on their expectations. The results of intensive analysis indicate that the existence of agents having heterogeneous beliefs and preferences has provided a better understanding of price dynamics in the financial market.Keywords: artificial intelligence methods, artificial stock market, behavioral modeling, multi-agent based simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 4363722 Evaluation of Turbulence Prediction over Washington, D.C.: Comparison of DCNet Observations and North American Mesoscale Model Outputs
Authors: Nebila Lichiheb, LaToya Myles, William Pendergrass, Bruce Hicks, Dawson Cagle
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Atmospheric transport of hazardous materials in urban areas is increasingly under investigation due to the potential impact on human health and the environment. In response to health and safety concerns, several dispersion models have been developed to analyze and predict the dispersion of hazardous contaminants. The models of interest usually rely on meteorological information obtained from the meteorological models of NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS). However, due to the complexity of the urban environment, NWS forecasts provide an inadequate basis for dispersion computation in urban areas. A dense meteorological network in Washington, DC, called DCNet, has been operated by NOAA since 2003 to support the development of urban monitoring methodologies and provide the driving meteorological observations for atmospheric transport and dispersion models. This study focuses on the comparison of wind observations from the DCNet station on the U.S. Department of Commerce Herbert C. Hoover Building against the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model outputs for the period 2017-2019. The goal is to develop a simple methodology for modifying NAM outputs so that the dispersion requirements of the city and its urban area can be satisfied. This methodology will allow us to quantify the prediction errors of the NAM model and propose adjustments of key variables controlling dispersion model calculation.Keywords: meteorological data, Washington D.C., DCNet data, NAM model
Procedia PDF Downloads 2233721 Market Chain Analysis of Onion: The Case of Northern Ethiopia
Authors: Belayneh Yohannes
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In Ethiopia, onion production is increasing from time to time mainly due to its high profitability per unit area. Onion has a significant contribution to generating cash income for farmers in the Raya Azebo district. Therefore, enhancing onion producers’ access to the market and improving market linkage is an essential issue. Hence, this study aimed to analyze structure-conduct-performance of onion market and identifying factors affecting the market supply of onion producers. Data were collected from both primary and secondary sources. Primary data were collected from 150 farm households and 20 traders. Four onion marketing channels were identified in the study area. The highest total gross margin is 27.6 in channel IV. The highest gross marketing margin of producers of the onion market is 88% in channel II. The result from the analysis of market concentration indicated that the onion market is characterized by a strong oligopolistic market structure, with the buyers’ concentration ratio of 88.7 in Maichew town and 82.7 in Mekelle town. Lack of capital, licensing problems, and seasonal supply was identified as the major entry barrier to onion marketing. Market conduct shows that the price of onion is set by traders while producers are price takers. Multiple linear regression model results indicated that family size in adult equivalent, irrigated land size, access to information, frequency of extension contact, and ownership of transport significantly determined the quantity of onion supplied to the market. It is recommended that strengthening and diversifying extension services in information, marketing, post-harvest handling, irrigation application, and water harvest technology is highly important.Keywords: oligopoly, onion, market chain, multiple linear regression
Procedia PDF Downloads 1233720 Accessibility of the Labor Market in Indonesian Cities
Authors: Hananto Prakoso, Jean-Pierre Orfeuil
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The relationship between city size, urban transport efficiency (speed), employment proximity (distance) and accessibility of labour market is rarely examined especially in developing countries. This paper reveals the relationship using 2 points of views (active population and company). Then the analysis is divided according to 3 transport modes (car, public transport and motorcycle) and takes into account the vehicle ownership rate. We employ data across 111 districts in 4 big cities of Indonesia. In our result, speed indicator contributed positively to accessibility of labour market while distance elasticity is negative. In absolute value, elasticity of speed indicator is higher than that of distance.Keywords: labour market, travel time, travel cost threshold, transportation
Procedia PDF Downloads 3643719 Training a Neural Network to Segment, Detect and Recognize Numbers
Authors: Abhisek Dash
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This study had three neural networks, one for number segmentation, one for number detection and one for number recognition all of which are coupled to one another. All networks were trained on the MNIST dataset and were convolutional. It was assumed that the images had lighter background and darker foreground. The segmentation network took 28x28 images as input and had sixteen outputs. Segmentation training starts when a dark pixel is encountered. Taking a window(7x7) over that pixel as focus, the eight neighborhood of the focus was checked for further dark pixels. The segmentation network was then trained to move in those directions which had dark pixels. To this end the segmentation network had 16 outputs. They were arranged as “go east”, ”don’t go east ”, “go south east”, “don’t go south east”, “go south”, “don’t go south” and so on w.r.t focus window. The focus window was resized into a 28x28 image and the network was trained to consider those neighborhoods which had dark pixels. The neighborhoods which had dark pixels were pushed into a queue in a particular order. The neighborhoods were then popped one at a time stitched to the existing partial image of the number one at a time and trained on which neighborhoods to consider when the new partial image was presented. The above process was repeated until the image was fully covered by the 7x7 neighborhoods and there were no more uncovered black pixels. During testing the network scans and looks for the first dark pixel. From here on the network predicts which neighborhoods to consider and segments the image. After this step the group of neighborhoods are passed into the detection network. The detection network took 28x28 images as input and had two outputs denoting whether a number was detected or not. Since the ground truth of the bounds of a number was known during training the detection network outputted in favor of number not found until the bounds were not met and vice versa. The recognition network was a standard CNN that also took 28x28 images and had 10 outputs for recognition of numbers from 0 to 9. This network was activated only when the detection network votes in favor of number detected. The above methodology could segment connected and overlapping numbers. Additionally the recognition unit was only invoked when a number was detected which minimized false positives. It also eliminated the need for rules of thumb as segmentation is learned. The strategy can also be extended to other characters as well.Keywords: convolutional neural networks, OCR, text detection, text segmentation
Procedia PDF Downloads 1473718 Seeking Safe Haven: An Analysis of Gold Performance during Periods of High Volatility
Authors: Gerald Abdesaken, Thomas O. Miller
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This paper analyzes the performance of gold as a safe-haven investment. Assuming high market volatility as an impetus to seek a safe haven in gold, the return of gold relative to the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, is tracked. Using the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) volatility index (VIX) as a measure of stock market volatility, various criteria are established for when an investor would seek a safe haven to avoid high levels of risk. The results show that in a vast majority of cases, the S&P 500 outperforms gold during these periods of high volatility and suggests investors who seek safe haven are underperforming the market.Keywords: gold, portfolio management, safe haven, VIX
Procedia PDF Downloads 1533717 Urban Catalyst through Traditional Market Revitalization towards the MICE Tourism in Surakarta
Authors: Istijabatul Aliyah, Bambang Setioko, Rara Sugiarti
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Surakarta is one of the cities which are formed with the concept of Javanese cosmology. As a traditional town of Java, Surakarta is known as ‘the paradise’ of traditional markets. Since its establishment, Surakarta is formed with Catur Gatra Tunggal or Four Single-Slot concept (palace, square, mosques, and markets). Current development in Surakarta downtown today indicates that traditional markets have improved themselves in both physical and non-physical aspects. The efforts start from the market façade revitalization, restoration and the overall development of market; up to social activities, competition between traders or large celebrations in the neighbourhood market. This research was conducted in Surakarta, which is aimed at: identifying the role of traditional market revitalization efforts in the development of a city. This study employs several methods of analysis, namely: 1) Spatial analysis for mapping the distribution of traditional markets in the city constellation, 2) Category-Based Analysis (CBA) to classify the revitalization of traditional markets that has an influence in the development of the city, and 3) Interactive Method of Analysis. The results of this research indicate that the presence of a constellation of traditional markets in Surakarta is dominated by the presence of Gede Market, not only as the oldest traditional market, but also as a center of economic and socio-cultural activities of the community. The role of traditional market revitalization in the development of a town is as an Urban Catalyst towards a MICE city in the sense that the revitalization effort, even done in a relatively short time and not yet covering the overall objects, is able to establish brand image of Surakarta as a city of culture which is friendly and ready to be MICE tourism city.Keywords: traditional market revitalization, urban catalyst, MICE tourism, Surakarta
Procedia PDF Downloads 3773716 Detection Efficient Enterprises via Data Envelopment Analysis
Authors: S. Turkan
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In this paper, the Turkey’s Top 500 Industrial Enterprises data in 2014 were analyzed by data envelopment analysis. Data envelopment analysis is used to detect efficient decision-making units such as universities, hospitals, schools etc. by using inputs and outputs. The decision-making units in this study are enterprises. To detect efficient enterprises, some financial ratios are determined as inputs and outputs. For this reason, financial indicators related to productivity of enterprises are considered. The efficient foreign weighted owned capital enterprises are detected via super efficiency model. According to the results, it is said that Mercedes-Benz is the most efficient foreign weighted owned capital enterprise in Turkey.Keywords: data envelopment analysis, super efficiency, logistic regression, financial ratios
Procedia PDF Downloads 3183715 AI-Driven Forecasting Models for Anticipating Oil Market Trends and Demand
Authors: Gaurav Kumar Sinha
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The volatility of the oil market, influenced by geopolitical, economic, and environmental factors, presents significant challenges for stakeholders in predicting trends and demand. This article explores the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in developing robust forecasting models to anticipate changes in the oil market more accurately. We delve into various AI techniques, including machine learning, deep learning, and time series analysis, that have been adapted to analyze historical data and current market conditions to forecast future trends. The study evaluates the effectiveness of these models in capturing complex patterns and dependencies in market data, which traditional forecasting methods often miss. Additionally, the paper discusses the integration of external variables such as political events, economic policies, and technological advancements that influence oil prices and demand. By leveraging AI, stakeholders can achieve a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics, enabling better strategic planning and risk management. The article concludes with a discussion on the potential of AI-driven models in enhancing the predictive accuracy of oil market forecasts and their implications for global economic planning and strategic resource allocation.Keywords: AI forecasting, oil market trends, machine learning, deep learning, time series analysis, predictive analytics, economic factors, geopolitical influence, technological advancements, strategic planning
Procedia PDF Downloads 263714 Long-Run Relationship among Tehran Stock Exchange and the GCC Countries Financial Markets, Before and After 2007/2008 Financial Crisis
Authors: Mohammad Hossein Ranjbar, Mahdi Bagheri, B. Shivaraj
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This study attempts to investigate the relationship between stock market of Iran and GCC countries stock exchanges. Eight markets were included: the stock market of Iran, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Oman. Daily country market indices were collected from January 2005 to December 2010. The potential time-varying behaviors of long-run stock market relationship among selected markets are tested applying correlation test, Augmented Dick Fuller test (ADF), Bilateral and Multilateral Cointegration (Johansen), and the Granger Causality test. The findings suggest that stock market of Iran is negatively correlated with most of the selected markets in the whole duration. But contemporaneous correlations among the eight selected markets are increased positively in period of financial crises. Bilateral Cointegration between selected markets suggests that there is no integration between Tehran stock exchange and other selected markets. Among other markets, except the stock market of Dubai and Abu Dhabi as a one pair, are not cointegrated in whole, but in duration of financial crises integration between selected markets are increased. Finally, investigation of the casual relationship among eight financial markets suggests there are unidirectional and bidirectional causal relationship among some of stock market indices.Keywords: financial crises, Middle East, stock market integration, Granger Causality test, ARDL test
Procedia PDF Downloads 3833713 The Effect of COVID-19 Transmission, Lockdown Measures, and Vaccination on Stock Market Returns
Authors: Belhouchet Selma, Ben Amar Anis
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We examine the impact of COVID-19 transmission, containment measures, and vaccination growth on daily stock market returns for the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) from January 22, 2020, to August 31, 2021, more than a year and a half after COVID-19. For this objective, we use panel pooled ordinary least squares regressions. Our findings indicate that the spread of the pandemic has a negative impact on the daily performance of the world's seven main stock markets. Government measures to improve stock market returns are no longer successful. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that immunization efforts in G7 nations do not increase stock market performance in these countries. A variety of robustness tests back up our conclusions. Our findings have far-reaching implications for investors, governments, and regulators not only in the G7 countries but also in all developed countries and all countries globally.Keywords: COVID-19, G7 stock market, containment measures, vaccination
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