Search results for: extreme weather
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1531

Search results for: extreme weather

421 Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of One Dimensional Shape Memory Alloy Constitutive Models

Authors: A. B. M. Rezaul Islam, Ernur Karadogan

Abstract:

Shape memory alloys (SMAs) are known for their shape memory effect and pseudoelasticity behavior. Their thermomechanical behaviors are modeled by numerous researchers using microscopic thermodynamic and macroscopic phenomenological point of view. Tanaka, Liang-Rogers and Ivshin-Pence models are some of the most popular SMA macroscopic phenomenological constitutive models. They describe SMA behavior in terms of stress, strain and temperature. These models involve material parameters and they have associated uncertainty present in them. At different operating temperatures, the uncertainty propagates to the output when the material is subjected to loading followed by unloading. The propagation of uncertainty while utilizing these models in real-life application can result in performance discrepancies or failure at extreme conditions. To resolve this, we used probabilistic approach to perform the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of Tanaka, Liang-Rogers, and Ivshin-Pence models. Sobol and extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Testing (eFAST) methods have been used to perform the sensitivity analysis for simulated isothermal loading/unloading at various operating temperatures. As per the results, it is evident that the models vary due to the change in operating temperature and loading condition. The average and stress-dependent sensitivity indices present the most significant parameters at several temperatures. This work highlights the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis results and shows comparison of them at different temperatures and loading conditions for all these models. The analysis presented will aid in designing engineering applications by eliminating the probability of model failure due to the uncertainty in the input parameters. Thus, it is recommended to have a proper understanding of sensitive parameters and the uncertainty propagation at several operating temperatures and loading conditions as per Tanaka, Liang-Rogers, and Ivshin-Pence model.

Keywords: constitutive models, FAST sensitivity analysis, sensitivity analysis, sobol, shape memory alloy, uncertainty analysis

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420 The New Far-Right: The Social Construction of Hatred against the Contemporary Islamic Community in Multicultural Australia

Authors: Angel Adams

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In Australia, the contemporary social construction of hatred against the Islamic community was facilitated through the mainstream media. Australian public figures who have depicted Muslims and Islam not only as potential terrorists but also as incompatible with the country’s values and identities have helped to increase the level of fear against the Islamic community, leading sympathetic far-right movements to shift discussions towards anti-Islamic and anti-Muslim rhetoric. Political opportunities combined with a socially constructed narrative of fear of the ‘other’, introduced during the White Australia Policy of 1901, has allowed extreme and radical far-right movements to justify hate against the contemporary Australian Islamic community. This study aims to answer the following question: How does Australia’s founding provide a fertile environment to the spread of hatred against the contemporary Islamic community? The paper demonstrates that a forged social construct of grievances concerning the Islamic community in Australia has led to a surge in supply of far-right activism to combat what has become a perceived ‘national threat’. In essence, Australia’s history of a fear of the ‘other’ brings challenges to a multicultural society, and can potentially lead to a more unstable socio-political environment where abuse and violence are normalized and more likely to develop. Furthermore, the paper aims to bring a more nuanced understanding of what is considered ‘new far-right’ discourses with shared anti-Islam and anti-Muslim agendas in Australia. The political opportunity structures theory was the mechanism used to determine how new forms of far-right groups have become more mainstream in Australia. Previous studies on far-right groups in Australia have relied on qualitative data, but further empirical research in this area is sorely needed. Above all, this paper clarifies how hatred against minorities can have a negative impact on wider communities and allow a global narrative of ‘us’ versus ‘them’ to erupt from the fringes of society in Australia.

Keywords: Australia, Islamophobia, far-right, nationalism, political opportunity structures, political violence, social construction

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419 Estimating Precipitable Water Vapour Using the Global Positioning System and Radio Occultation over Ethiopian Regions

Authors: Asmamaw Yehun, Tsegaye Gogie, Martin Vermeer, Addisu Hunegnaw

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The Global Positioning System (GPS) is a space-based radio positioning system, which is capable of providing continuous position, velocity, and time information to users anywhere on or near the surface of the Earth. The main objective of this work was to estimate the integrated precipitable water vapour (IPWV) using ground GPS and Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Radio Occultation (RO) to study spatial-temporal variability. For LEO-GPS RO, we used Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) datasets. We estimated the daily and monthly mean of IPWV using six selected ground-based GPS stations over a period of range from 2012 to 2016 (i.e. five-years period). The main perspective for selecting the range period from 2012 to 2016 is that, continuous data were available during these periods at all Ethiopian GPS stations. We studied temporal, seasonal, diurnal, and vertical variations of precipitable water vapour using GPS observables extracted from the precise geodetic GAMIT-GLOBK software package. Finally, we determined the cross-correlation of our GPS-derived IPWV values with those of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-40 Interim reanalysis and of the second generation National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) model ensemble Forecast System Reforecast (GEFS/R) for validation and static comparison. There are higher values of the IPWV range from 30 to 37.5 millimetres (mm) in Gambela and Southern Regions of Ethiopia. Some parts of Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia regions had low IPWV ranges from 8.62 to 15.27 mm. The correlation coefficient between GPS-derived IPWV with ECMWF and GEFS/R exceeds 90%. We conclude that there are highly temporal, seasonal, diurnal, and vertical variations of precipitable water vapour in the study area.

Keywords: GNSS, radio occultation, atmosphere, precipitable water vapour

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418 Performance of AquaCrop Model for Simulating Maize Growth and Yield Under Varying Sowing Dates in Shire Area, North Ethiopia

Authors: Teklay Tesfay, Gebreyesus Brhane Tesfahunegn, Abadi Berhane, Selemawit Girmay

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Adjusting the proper sowing date of a crop at a particular location with a changing climate is an essential management option to maximize crop yield. However, determining the optimum sowing date for rainfed maize production through field experimentation requires repeated trials for many years in different weather conditions and crop management. To avoid such long-term experimentation to determine the optimum sowing date, crop models such as AquaCrop are useful. Therefore, the overall objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of AquaCrop model in simulating maize productivity under varying sowing dates. A field experiment was conducted for two consecutive cropping seasons by deploying four maize seed sowing dates in a randomized complete block design with three replications. Input data required to run this model are stored as climate, crop, soil, and management files in the AquaCrop database and adjusted through the user interface. Observed data from separate field experiments was used to calibrate and validate the model. AquaCrop model was validated for its performance in simulating the green canopy and aboveground biomass of maize for the varying sowing dates based on the calibrated parameters. Results of the present study showed that there was a good agreement (an overall R2 =, Ef= d= RMSE =) between measured and simulated values of the canopy cover and biomass yields. Considering the overall values of the statistical test indicators, the performance of the model to predict maize growth and biomass yield was successful, and so this is a valuable tool help for decision-making. Hence, this calibrated and validated model is suggested to use for determining optimum maize crop sowing date for similar climate and soil conditions to the study area, instead of conducting long-term experimentation.

Keywords: AquaCrop model, calibration, validation, simulation

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417 D-Wave Quantum Computing Ising Model: A Case Study for Forecasting of Heat Waves

Authors: Dmytro Zubov, Francesco Volponi

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In this paper, D-Wave quantum computing Ising model is used for the forecasting of positive extremes of daily mean air temperature. Forecast models are designed with two to five qubits, which represent 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-day historical data respectively. Ising model’s real-valued weights and dimensionless coefficients are calculated using daily mean air temperatures from 119 places around the world, as well as sea level (Aburatsu, Japan). In comparison with current methods, this approach is better suited to predict heat wave values because it does not require the estimation of a probability distribution from scarce observations. Proposed forecast quantum computing algorithm is simulated based on traditional computer architecture and combinatorial optimization of Ising model parameters for the Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport dataset with 1-day lead-time on learning sample (1975-2010 yr). Analysis of the forecast accuracy (ratio of successful predictions to total number of predictions) on the validation sample (2011-2014 yr) shows that Ising model with three qubits has 100 % accuracy, which is quite significant as compared to other methods. However, number of identified heat waves is small (only one out of nineteen in this case). Other models with 2, 4, and 5 qubits have 20 %, 3.8 %, and 3.8 % accuracy respectively. Presented three-qubit forecast model is applied for prediction of heat waves at other five locations: Aurel Vlaicu, Romania – accuracy is 28.6 %; Bratislava, Slovakia – accuracy is 21.7 %; Brussels, Belgium – accuracy is 33.3 %; Sofia, Bulgaria – accuracy is 50 %; Akhisar, Turkey – accuracy is 21.4 %. These predictions are not ideal, but not zeros. They can be used independently or together with other predictions generated by different method(s). The loss of human life, as well as environmental, economic, and material damage, from extreme air temperatures could be reduced if some of heat waves are predicted. Even a small success rate implies a large socio-economic benefit.

Keywords: heat wave, D-wave, forecast, Ising model, quantum computing

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416 Healing the Scars of the Past: The Great Challenge and Failed Attempt of European Union to Create a Supranational Identity

Authors: David Martínez Rico, Juan Pablo Farid Cuéllar Martínez

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After more than half a century that the first treaty of European cooperation was created, the final result of a difficult and long historical process, which is the current European Union, is facing economical and social challenges. The barriers of policies differences and national sovereignties seem to be being defeated in the last and present decades. However, the last crisis of 2008 brought back problems as xenophobia and nationalism. In this ambit of identity, European Union has made many efforts to reinforce a European identity and leave behind the radical nationalisms which generated World Wars. Nevertheless, these social problems are increasing and becoming more present in the life of many Europeans. Even, in the last Euro Parliamentarian Elections of the present year, 2014, the extreme right parties, in favor of xenophobic and anti European ideals, got more seats and are increasing their presence in Euro Parliament. This essay approaches to this controversial topic of European identity. Taking as start point the nationalist divisions that are causing internal divergences in Europe, the authors of this research study the role and contributions of the Memorials of the fallen soldiers and heroes of World Wars, present in many cities as Amsterdam, Brussels and Paris, to the impossibility to reach an European identity, it means that Europeans feel first part of Europe in place to feel first part of a nation. The objective of this essay is to reaffirm the thesis that establishes that the European Union won´t reach the longed supranational identity with just with the current strategies, because yet there are many cultural elements in its member states societies which exalt the heroes and soldiers of the past wars, increasing nationalism feelings. Besides, in it are promoted some interesting ideas that could change the course in this quest of a European social identity.

Keywords: identity, memorials, European identity, nationalism, proposals

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415 Evaluation of Weather Risk Insurance for Agricultural Products Using a 3-Factor Pricing Model

Authors: O. Benabdeljelil, A. Karioun, S. Amami, R. Rouger, M. Hamidine

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A model for preventing the risks related to climate conditions in the agricultural sector is presented. It will determine the yearly optimum premium to be paid by a producer in order to reach his required turnover. The model is based on both climatic stability and 'soft' responses of usually grown species to average climate variations at the same place and inside a safety ball which can be determined from past meteorological data. This allows the use of linear regression expression for dependence of production result in terms of driving meteorological parameters, the main ones of which are daily average sunlight, rainfall and temperature. By simple best parameter fit from the expert table drawn with professionals, optimal representation of yearly production is determined from records of previous years, and yearly payback is evaluated from minimum yearly produced turnover. The model also requires accurate pricing of commodity at N+1. Therefore, a pricing model is developed using 3 state variables, namely the spot price, the difference between the mean-term and the long-term forward price, and the long-term structure of the model. The use of historical data enables to calibrate the parameters of state variables, and allows the pricing of commodity. Application to beet sugar underlines pricer precision. Indeed, the percentage of accuracy between computed result and real world is 99,5%. Optimal premium is then deduced and gives the producer a useful bound for negotiating an offer by insurance companies to effectively protect its harvest. The application to beet production in French Oise department illustrates the reliability of present model with as low as 6% difference between predicted and real data. The model can be adapted to almost any agricultural field by changing state parameters and calibrating their associated coefficients.

Keywords: agriculture, production model, optimal price, meteorological factors, 3-factor model, parameter calibration, forward price

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414 Eosinophilic Granulomatosis with Polyangiitis in Pediatrics Patient: A Case Report

Authors: Saboor Saeed, Chunming Jiang

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Eosinophilic Granulomatosis with polyangiitis (EGPA), formerly known as Churg-Strauss syndrome, is a rare systemic vasculitis of small and medium-sized vessels that primarily develops in middle-aged individuals. It is characterized by asthma, blood eosinophilia, and extra pulmonary manifestations. In childhood, EGPA is extremely rare. Pulmonary and cardiac involvement is predominant in pediatric EGPA, and mortality is substantial. Generally, EGPA will develop in three stages: a) The allergic phase is commonly associated with asthma, allergic rhinitis, and sinusitis, b) the eosinophilic phase, in which the main pathology is related to the infiltration of eosinophilic organs, i.e., lung, heart, and gastrointestinal system, c) vasculitis phase involved purpura, peripheral neuropathy, and some constitutional symptoms. The key to the treatment of EGPA lies in the early diagnosis of the disease. Early application of glucocorticoids and immunosuppressants can improve symptoms and the overall prognosis of EGPA. Case Description: We presented a case of an 8-year-old boy with a history of short asthma, marked eosinophilia, and multi-organ involvement. The extremely high eosinophil level in the blood (72.50%) prompted the examination of eosinophilic leukemia before EGPA diagnosis was made. Subsequently, this disease was successfully treated. This case report shows a typical case of CSS in childhood because of the extreme eosinophilia. It emphasizes the importance of EGPA is a life-threatening cause of children's eosinophilia. Conclusion: EGPA in children has unique clinical, imaging, and histological characteristics different from those of adults. In pediatric patients, the development and diagnosis of systemic symptoms are often delayed, mainly occurring in the eosinophilic phase, which will lead to specific manifestations. At the same time, we cannot detect a genetic relationship related to EGPA.

Keywords: Churg Strauss syndrome, asthma, vasculitis, hypereosinophilia, eosinophilic granulomatosis polyangiitis

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413 Performance and Nutritional Evaluation of Moringa Leaves Dried in a Solar-Assisted Heat Pump Dryer Integrated with Thermal Energy Storage

Authors: Aldé Belgard Tchicaya Loemba, Baraka Kichonge, Thomas Kivevele, Juma Rajabu Selemani

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Plants used for medicinal purposes are extremely perishable, owing to moisture-enhanced enzymatic and microorganism activity, climate change, and improper handling and storage. Experiments have shown that drying the medicinal plant without affecting the active nutrients and controlling the moisture content as much as possible can extend its shelf life. Different traditional and modern drying techniques for preserving medicinal plants have been developed, with some still being improved in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, many of these methods fail to address the most common issues encountered when drying medicinal plants, such as nutrient loss, long drying times, and a limited capacity to dry during the evening or cloudy hours. Heat pump drying is an alternate drying method that results in no nutritional loss. Furthermore, combining a heat pump dryer with a solar energy storage system appears to be a viable option for all-weather drying without affecting the nutritional values of dried products. In this study, a solar-assisted heat pump dryer integrated with thermal energy storage is developed for drying moringa leaves. The study also discusses the performance analysis of the developed dryer as well as the proximate analysis of the dried moringa leaves. All experiments were conducted from 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. to assess the dryer's performance in “daytime mode”. Experiment results show that the drying time was significantly reduced, and the dryer demonstrated high performance in preserving all of the nutrients. In 5 hours of the drying process, the moisture content was reduced from 75.7 to 3.3%. The average COP value was 3.36, confirming the dryer's low energy consumption. The findings also revealed that after drying, the content of protein, carbohydrates, fats, fiber, and ash greatly increased.

Keywords: heat pump dryer, efficiency, moringa leaves, proximate analysis

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412 Microencapsulation for Enhancing the Survival of S. thermophilus and L. bulgaricus during Spray Drying of Sweetened Yoghurt

Authors: Dibyakanta Seth, Hari Niwas Mishra, Sankar Chandra Deka

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Microencapsulation is an established method of protecting bacteria from the adverse conditions. An improved extrusion spraying technique was used to encapsulate mixed bacteria culture of S. thermophilus and L. bulgaricus using sodium alginate as the coating material. The effect of nozzle air pressure (200, 300, 400 and 500 kPa), sodium alginate concentration (1%, 1.5%, 2%, 2.5% and 3% w/v), different concentration of calcium chloride (0.1, 0.2, 1 M) and initial cell loads (10⁷, 10⁸, 10⁹ cfu/ml) on the viability of encapsulated bacteria were investigated. With the increase in air pressure the size of microcapsules decreased, however the effect was non-significant. There was no significant difference (p > 0.05) in the viability of encapsulated cells when the concentration of calcium chloride was increased. Increased level of sodium alginate significantly increased the survival ratio of encapsulated bacteria (P < 0.01). Encapsulation with 3% alginate was treated as optimum since a higher concentration of alginate increased the gel strength of the solution and thus was difficult to spray. Under optimal conditions 3% alginate, 10⁹ cfu/ml cell load, 20 min hardening time in 0.1 M CaCl2 and 400 kPa nozzle air pressure, the viability of bacteria cells was maximum compared to the free cells. The microcapsules made at the optimal condition when mixed with yoghurt and subjected to spray drying at 148°C, the survival ratio was 2.48×10⁻¹ for S. thermophilus and 7.26×10⁻¹ for L. bulgaricus. In contrast, the survival ratio of free cells of S. thermophilus and L. bulgaricus were 2.36×10⁻³ and 8.27×10⁻³, respectively. This study showed a decline in viable cells count of about 0.5 log over a period of 7 weeks while there was a decline of about 1 log in cultures which were incorporated as free cells in yoghurt. Microencapsulation provided better protection at higher acidity compared to free cells. This study demonstrated that microencapsulation of yoghurt culture in sodium alginate is an effective technique of protection against extreme drying conditions.

Keywords: extrusion, microencapsulation, spray drying, sweetened yoghurt

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411 Hydration Matters: Impact on 3 km Running Performance in Trained Male Athletes Under Heat Conditions

Authors: Zhaoqi He

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Research Context: Endurance performance in hot environments is influenced by the interplay of hydration status and physiological responses. This study aims to investigate how dehydration, up to 2.11% body weight loss, affects the 3 km running performance of trained male athletes under conditions mimicking high temperatures. Methodology: In a randomized crossover design, five male athletes participated in two trials – euhydrated (EU) and dehydrated (HYPO). Both trials included a 70-minute preload run at 55-60% VO2max in 32°C and 50% humidity, followed by a 3-kilometer time trial. Fluid intake was restricted in HYPO to induce a 2.11% body weight loss. Physiological metrics, including heart rate, core temperature, and oxygen uptake, were measured, along with perceptual metrics like perceived exertion and thirst sensation. Findings: The 3-kilometer run completion times showed no significant differences between EU and HYPO trials (p=0.944). Physiological indicators, including heart rate, core temperature, and oxygen uptake, did not significantly vary (p>0.05). Thirst sensation was markedly higher in HYPO (p=0.013), confirming successful induction of dehydration. Other perceptual metrics and gastrointestinal comfort remained consistent. Conclusion: Contrary to the hypothesis, the study reveals that dehydration, inducing up to 2.11% body weight loss, does not significantly impair 3 km running performance in trained male athletes under hot conditions. Thirst sensation was notably higher in the dehydrated state, emphasizing the importance of considering perceptual factors in hydration strategies. The findings suggest that trained runners can maintain performance despite moderate dehydration, highlighting the need for nuanced hydration guidelines in hot-weather running.

Keywords: hypohydration, euhydration, hot environment, 3km running time trial, endurance performance, trained athletes, perceptual metrics, dehydration impact, physiological responses, hydration strategies

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410 Analysis of the Factors of Local Acceptance of Wind Power Generation Facilities

Authors: Hyunjoo Park, Taehyun Kim, Taehyun Kim

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The government that declared 'de-nuclearization' pushes up renewable energy policies such as solar power and wind power as an alternative to nuclear power generation. However, local residents who are concerned about the development and natural disasters have been hit by opposition, and related businesses around the country are experiencing difficulties. There is also a voice saying that installing a large wind power generator will cause landslides, low frequencies and noise, which will have a bad influence. Renewal is only a harmful and disgusting facility for the residents. In this way, it is expected that extreme social conflicts will occur in the decision making process related to the locally unwanted land-use (LULU). The government's efforts to solve this problem have been steadily progressing, but the systematic methodology for bringing in active participation and opinion gathering of the residents has not yet been established except for the simple opinion poll or referendum. Therefore, it is time to identify the factors that concern the local residents about the wind power generation facilities, and to find ways to make policy decision-making possible. In this study, we analyze the perception of people about offshore and onshore wind power facilities through questionnaires or interviews, and examine quantitative and qualitative precedent studies to analyze them. In addition, the study evaluates what factors affect the local acceptance of wind power facilities. As a result of the factor analysis of the questionnaire items, factors affecting the residents' acceptance of the wind power facility were extracted from four factors such as environmental, economic, risk, social, and management factor. The study also found that the influence of the determinants of local acceptance on the regional acceptability differs according to the demographic characteristics such as gender and income level. This study will contribute to minimizing the conflict on the installation of wind power facilities through communication among the local residents.

Keywords: factor analysis, local acceptance, locally unwanted land-use, LULU, wind power generation facilities

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409 Cooperative Robot Application in a Never Explored or an Abandoned Sub-Surface Mine

Authors: Michael K. O. Ayomoh, Oyindamola A. Omotuyi

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Autonomous mobile robots deployed to explore or operate in a never explored or an abandoned sub-surface mine requires extreme effectiveness in coordination and communication. In a bid to transmit information from the depth of the mine to the external surface in real-time and amidst diverse physical, chemical and virtual impediments, the concept of unified cooperative robots is seen to be a proficient approach. This paper presents an effective [human → robot → task] coordination framework for effective exploration of an abandoned underground mine. The problem addressed in this research is basically the development of a globalized optimization model premised on time series differentiation and geometrical configurations for effective positioning of the two classes of robots in the cooperation namely the outermost stationary master (OSM) robots and the innermost dynamic task (IDT) robots for effective bi-directional signal transmission. In addition, the synchronization of a vision system and wireless communication system for both categories of robots, fiber optics system for the OSM robots in cases of highly sloppy or vertical mine channels and an autonomous battery recharging capability for the IDT robots further enhanced the proposed concept. The OSM robots are the master robots which are positioned at strategic locations starting from the mine open surface down to its base using a fiber-optic cable or a wireless communication medium all subject to the identified mine geometrical configuration. The OSM robots are usually stationary and function by coordinating the transmission of signals from the IDT robots at the base of the mine to the surface and in a reverse order based on human decisions at the surface control station. The proposed scheme also presents an optimized number of robots required to form the cooperation in a bid to reduce overall operational cost and system complexity.

Keywords: sub-surface mine, wireless communication, outermost stationary master robots, inner-most dynamic robots, fiber optic

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408 Ectoine: A Compatible Solute in Radio-Halophilic Stenotrophomonas sp. WMA-LM19 Strain to Prevent Ultraviolet-Induced Protein Damage

Authors: Wasim Sajjad, Manzoor Ahmad, Sundas Qadir, Muhammad Rafiq, Fariha Hasan, Richard Tehan, Kerry L. McPhail, Aamer Ali Shah

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Aim: This study aims to investigate the possible radiation protective role of a compatible solute in the tolerance of radio-halophilic bacterium against stresses, like desiccation and exposure to ionizing radiation. Methods and Results: Nine different radio-resistant bacteria were isolated from desert soil, where strain WMA-LM19 was chosen for detailed studies on the basis of its high tolerance for ultraviolet radiation among all these isolates. 16S rRNA gene sequencing indicated that the bacterium was closely related to Stenotrophomonas sp. (KT008383). A bacterial milking strategy was applied for extraction of intracellular compatible solutes in 70% (v/v) ethanol, which were purified by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The compound was characterized as ectoine by 1H and 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), and mass spectrometry (MS). Ectoine demonstrated more efficient preventive activity (54.80%) to erythrocyte membranes and also inhibited oxidative damage to proteins and lipids in comparison to the standard ascorbic acid. Furthermore, a high level of ectoine-mediated protection of bovine serum albumin against ionizing radiation (1500-2000 Jm-2) was observed, as indicated by sodium dodecyl sulfate polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) analysis. Conclusion: The results indicated that ectoine can be used as a potential mitigator and radio-protective agent to overcome radiation- and salinity-mediated oxidative damage in extreme environments. Significance and Impact of the Study: This study shows that ectoine from radio-halophiles can be used as a potential source in topical creams as sunscreen. The investigation of ectoine as UV protectant also changes the prospective that radiation resistance is specific only to molecular adaptation.

Keywords: ectoine, anti-oxidant, stenotrophomonas sp., ultraviolet radiation

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407 Prevalence and Effect of Substance Use and Psychological Co-Morbidities in Medical and Dental Students of a Medical University of Nepal

Authors: Nidesh Sapkota, Garima Pudasaini, Dikshya Agrawal, Binav Baral, Umesh Bhagat, Dharanidhar Baral

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Background: Medical and Dental students are vulnerable to higher levels of Psychological distress than other age matched peers. Many studies reveals that there is high prevalence of psychoactive substance use and Psychiatric co-morbidities among them. Objectives: -To study the prevalence of substance use among medical and dental students of a Medical University. -To study the prevalence of depression and anxiety in medical and dental students of a Medical University. Materials and Method: A cross-sectional descriptive study in which simple random sampling was done. Semi-structured questionnaire, AUDIT for alcohol use, Fagerstrom test for Nicotine dependence, Cannabis screening test (CAST), Beck’s Depression Inventory (BDI), Beck’s Anxiety Inventory (BAI) were used for the assessment. Results: Total sample size was 588 in which the mean age of participants was 22±2years. Among them the prevalence of alcohol users was 47.75%(281) in which 32%(90) were harmful users. Among 19.55%(115) nicotine users 56.5%(65), 37.4%(43), 6.1%(7) had low, low to moderate and moderate dependence respectively. The prevalence of cannabis users was 9%(53) with 45.3%(24), 18.9%(10) having low and high addiction respectively. Depressive symptoms were recorded in 25.3%(149) out of which 12.6%(74), 6.5%(38), 5.3%(31), 0.5%(3), 0.5%(3) had mild, borderline, moderate, severe and extreme depressive symptoms respectively. Similarly anxiety was recorded among 7.8%(46) students with 42 having moderate and 4 having severe anxiety symptoms. Among them 6.3%(37) had suicidal thoughts and 4(0.7%) of them had suicide attempt in last one year. Statistically significant association was noted with harmful alcohol users, Depression and suicidal attempts. Similar association was noted between Depression and suicide with moderate use of nicotine. Conclusion: There is high prevalence of Psychoactive substance use and psychiatric co-morbidities noted in the studies sample. Statistically significant association was noted with Psychiatric co-morbidities and substance use.

Keywords: alcohol, cannabis, dependence, depression, medical students

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406 Field Emission Scanning Microscope Image Analysis for Porosity Characterization of Autoclaved Aerated Concrete

Authors: Venuka Kuruwita Arachchige Don, Mohamed Shaheen, Chris Goodier

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Aerated autoclaved concrete (AAC) is known for its lightweight, easy handling, high thermal insulation, and extremely porous structure. Investigation of pore behavior in AAC is crucial for characterizing the material, standardizing design and production techniques, enhancing the mechanical, durability, and thermal performance, studying the effectiveness of protective measures, and analyzing the effects of weather conditions. The significant details of pores are complicated to observe with acknowledged accuracy. The High-resolution Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscope (FESEM) image analysis is a promising technique for investigating the pore behavior and density of AAC, which is adopted in this study. Mercury intrusion porosimeter and gas pycnometer were employed to characterize porosity distribution and density parameters. The analysis considered three different densities of AAC blocks and three layers in the altitude direction within each block. A set of understandings was presented to extract and analyze the details of pore shape, pore size, pore connectivity, and pore percentages from FESEM images of AAC. Average pore behavior outcomes per unit area were presented. Comparison of porosity distribution and density parameters revealed significant variations. FESEM imaging offered unparalleled insights into porosity behavior, surpassing the capabilities of other techniques. The analysis conducted from a multi-staged approach provides porosity percentage occupied by various pore categories, total porosity, variation of pore distribution compared to AAC densities and layers, number of two-dimensional and three-dimensional pores, variation of apparent and matrix densities concerning pore behaviors, variation of pore behavior with respect to aluminum content, and relationship among shape, diameter, connectivity, and percentage in each pore classification.

Keywords: autoclaved aerated concrete, density, imaging technique, microstructure, porosity behavior

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405 A Multi Criteria Approach for Prioritization of Low Volume Rural Roads for Maintenance and Improvement

Authors: L. V. S. S. Phaneendra Bolem, S. Shankar

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Low Volume Rural Roads (LVRRs) constitute an integral component of the road system in all countries. These encompass all aspects of the social and economic development of rural communities. It is known that on a worldwide basis the number of low traffic roads far exceeds the length of high volume roads. Across India, 90% of the roads are LVRRs, and they often form the most important link in terms of providing access to educational, medical, recreational and commercial activities in local and regional areas. In the recent past, Government of India (GoI), with the initiation of the ambitious programme namely 'Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana' (PMGSY) gave greater importance to LVRRs realizing their role in economic development of rural communities. The vast expansion of the road network has brought connectivity to the rural areas of the country. Further, it is noticed that due to increasing axle loads and lack of timely maintenance, is accelerated the process of deterioration of LVRRs. In addition to this due to limited budget for maintenance of these roads systematic and scientific approach in utilizing the available resources has been necessitated. This would enable better prioritization and ranking for the maintenance and make ‘all-weather roads’. Taking this into account the present study has adopted a multi-criteria approach. The multi-criteria approach includes parameters such as social, economic, environmental and pavement condition as the main criterion and some sub-criteria to find the best suitable parameters and their weight. For this purpose the expert’s opinion survey was carried out using Delphi Technique (DT) considering Likert scale, pairwise comparison and ranking methods and entire data was analyzed. Finally, this study developed the maintenance criterion considering the socio-economic, environmental and pavement condition parameters for effective maintenance of low volume roads based on the engineering judgment.

Keywords: Delphi technique, experts opinion survey, low volume rural road maintenance, multi criteria analysis

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404 The Effect of Electromagnetic Stirring during Solidification of Nickel Based Alloys

Authors: Ricardo Paiva, Rui Soares, Felix Harnau, Bruno Fragoso

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Nickel-based alloys are materials well suited for service in extreme environments subjected to pressure and heat. Some industrial applications for Nickel-based alloys are aerospace and jet engines, oil and gas extraction, pollution control and waste processing, automotive and marine industry. It is generally recognized that grain refinement is an effective methodology to improve the quality of casted parts. Conventional grain refinement techniques involve the addition of inoculation substances, the control of solidification conditions, or thermomechanical treatment with recrystallization. However, such methods often lead to non-uniform grain size distribution and the formation of hard phases, which are detrimental to both wear performance and biocompatibility. Stirring of the melt by electromagnetic fields has been widely used in continuous castings with success for grain refinement, solute redistribution, and surface quality improvement. Despite the advantages, much attention has not been paid yet to the use of this approach on functional castings such as investment casting. Furthermore, the effect of electromagnetic stirring (EMS) fields on Nickel-based alloys is not known. In line with the gaps/needs of the state-of-art, the present research work targets to promote new advances in controlling grain size and morphology of investment cast Nickel based alloys. For such a purpose, a set of experimental tests was conducted. A high-frequency induction furnace with vacuum and controlled atmosphere was used to cast the Inconel 718 alloy in ceramic shells. A coil surrounded the casting chamber in order to induce electromagnetic stirring during solidification. Aiming to assess the effect of the electromagnetic stirring on Ni alloys, the samples were subjected to microstructural analysis and mechanical tests. The results show that electromagnetic stirring can be an effective methodology to modify the grain size and mechanical properties of investment-cast parts.

Keywords: investment casting, grain refinement, electromagnetic stirring, nickel alloys

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403 Assessing Overall Thermal Conductance Value of Low-Rise Residential Home Exterior Above-Grade Walls Using Infrared Thermography Methods

Authors: Matthew D. Baffa

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Infrared thermography is a non-destructive test method used to estimate surface temperatures based on the amount of electromagnetic energy radiated by building envelope components. These surface temperatures are indicators of various qualitative building envelope deficiencies such as locations and extent of heat loss, thermal bridging, damaged or missing thermal insulation, air leakage, and moisture presence in roof, floor, and wall assemblies. Although infrared thermography is commonly used for qualitative deficiency detection in buildings, this study assesses its use as a quantitative method to estimate the overall thermal conductance value (U-value) of the exterior above-grade walls of a study home. The overall U-value of exterior above-grade walls in a home provides useful insight into the energy consumption and thermal comfort of a home. Three methodologies from the literature were employed to estimate the overall U-value by equating conductive heat loss through the exterior above-grade walls to the sum of convective and radiant heat losses of the walls. Outdoor infrared thermography field measurements of the exterior above-grade wall surface and reflective temperatures and emissivity values for various components of the exterior above-grade wall assemblies were carried out during winter months at the study home using a basic thermal imager device. The overall U-values estimated from each methodology from the literature using the recorded field measurements were compared to the nominal exterior above-grade wall overall U-value calculated from materials and dimensions detailed in architectural drawings of the study home. The nominal overall U-value was validated through calendarization and weather normalization of utility bills for the study home as well as various estimated heat loss quantities from a HOT2000 computer model of the study home and other methods. Under ideal environmental conditions, the estimated overall U-values deviated from the nominal overall U-value between ±2% to ±33%. This study suggests infrared thermography can estimate the overall U-value of exterior above-grade walls in low-rise residential homes with a fair amount of accuracy.

Keywords: emissivity, heat loss, infrared thermography, thermal conductance

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402 Detection of Flood Prone Areas Using Multi Criteria Evaluation, Geographical Information Systems and Fuzzy Logic. The Ardas Basin Case

Authors: Vasileiou Apostolos, Theodosiou Chrysa, Tsitroulis Ioannis, Maris Fotios

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The severity of extreme phenomena is due to their ability to cause severe damage in a small amount of time. It has been observed that floods affect the greatest number of people and induce the biggest damage when compared to the total of annual natural disasters. The detection of potential flood-prone areas constitutes one of the fundamental components of the European Natural Disaster Management Policy, directly connected to the European Directive 2007/60. The aim of the present paper is to develop a new methodology that combines geographical information, fuzzy logic and multi-criteria evaluation methods so that the most vulnerable areas are defined. Therefore, ten factors related to geophysical, morphological, climatological/meteorological and hydrological characteristics of the basin were selected. Afterwards, two models were created to detect the areas pronest to flooding. The first model defined the gravitas of each factor using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the final map of possible flood spots were created using GIS and Boolean Algebra. The second model made use of the fuzzy logic and GIS combination and a respective map was created. The application area of the aforementioned methodologies was in Ardas basin due to the frequent and important floods that have taken place these last years. Then, the results were compared to the already observed floods. The result analysis shows that both models can detect with great precision possible flood spots. As the fuzzy logic model is less time-consuming, it is considered the ideal model to apply to other areas. The said results are capable of contributing to the delineation of high risk areas and to the creation of successful management plans dealing with floods.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, flood prone areas, fuzzy logic, geographic information system

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401 Autonomous Exploration, Navigation and Mapping Payload Integrated on a Quadruped Robot

Authors: Julian Y. Raheema, Michael R. Hess, Raymond C. Provost, Mark Bilinski

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The world is rapidly moving towards advancing and utilizing artificial intelligence and autonomous robotics. The ground-breaking Boston Dynamics quadruped robot, SPOT, was designed for industrial and commercial tasks requiring limited autonomous navigation. Out of the box, SPOT has route memorization and playback – it can repeat a path that it has been manually piloted through, but it cannot autonomously navigate an area that has not been previously explored. The presented SPOT payload package is built on ROS framework to support autonomous navigation and mapping of an unexplored environment. The package is fully integrated with SPOT to take advantage of motor controls and collision avoidance that comes natively with the robot. The payload runs all computations onboard, takes advantage of visual odometry SLAM and uses an Intel RealSense depth camera and Velodyne LiDAR sensor to generate 2D and 3D maps while in autonomous navigation mode. These maps are fused into the navigation stack to generate a costmap to enable the robot to safely navigate the environment without causing damage to the surroundings or the robot. The operator defines the operational zone and start location and then sends the explore command to have SPOT explore, generate 2D and 3D maps of the environment and return to the start location to await the operator's next command. The benefit of the presented package is that it is much lighter weight and less expensive than previous approaches and, importantly, operates in GPS-denied scenarios, which is ideal for indoor mapping. There are numerous applications that are hazardous to humans for SPOT enhanced with the autonomy payload, including disaster response, nuclear inspection, mine inspection, and so on. Other less extreme uses cases include autonomous 3D and 2D scanning of facilities for inspection, engineering and construction purposes.

Keywords: autonomous, SLAM, quadruped, mapping, exploring, ROS, robotics, navigation

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400 Control of Indoor Carbon through Soft Approaches in Himachal Pradesh, India

Authors: Kopal Verma, Umesh C. Kulshrestha

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The mountainous regions are very crucial for a country because of their importance for weather, water supply, forests, and various other socio-economic benefits. But the increasing population and its demand for energy and infrastructure have contributed very high loadings of air pollution. Various activities such as cooking, heating, manufacturing, transport, etc. contribute various particulate and gaseous pollutants in the atmosphere. This study was focused upon indoor air pollution and was carried out in four rural households of the Baggi village located in the Hamirpur District of the Himachal Pradesh state. The residents of Baggi village use biomass as fuel for cooking on traditional stove (Chullah). The biomass types include wood (mainly Beul, Grewia Optiva), crop residue and dung cakes. This study aimed to determine the organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC), major cations and anions in the indoor air of each household. During non-cooking hours, it was found that the indoor air contained OC and EC as low as 21µg/m³ and 17µg/m³ respectively. But during cooking hours (with biomass burning), the levels of OC and EC were raised significantly by 91.2% and 85.4% respectively. Then the residents were advised to switch over as per our soft approach options. In the first approach change, they were asked to prepare the meal partially on Chullah using biomass and partially with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). By doing this change, a considerable reduction in OC (53.1%) and in EC (41.8%) was noticed. The second change of approach included the cooking of entire meal by using LPG. This resulted in the reduction of OC (84.1%) and EC (73.3%) as compared to the values obtained during cooking entirely with biomass. The carbonaceous aerosol levels were higher in the morning hours than in the evening hours because of more biomass burning activity in the morning. According to a general survey done with the residents, the study provided them an awareness about the air pollution and the harmful effects of biomass burning. Some of them correlated their ailments like weakened eyesight, fatigue and respiratory problems with indoor air pollution. This study demonstrated that by replacing biomass with clean fuel such as LPG, the indoor concentrations of EC and OC can be reduced substantially.

Keywords: biomass burning, carbonaceous aerosol, elemental carbon, organic carbon, LPG

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399 A Plant-Insect Association for Enhancing Survival of an Ecosystem Engineer Termite Species in a Semi-Arid Savanna

Authors: G. Nampa, M. Ndlovu

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Mutualistic relationships amongst organisms drive diversity in terrestrial ecosystems. Yet, few mutual associations have been documented in the semi-arid savannas of Africa. The levels and benefits of association between Carissa bispinosa, a medium-sized evergreen thorny shrub, and Trinervitermes trinervoides, an ecosystem engineer termite species, were studied at a semi-arid savanna setting in Nylsvley nature reserve, South Africa. It was hypothesized that there would be a close plant-insect association since termite mounds provide nutrients for plant growth and, in return, the thorny shrubs protect mounds from predation and also provide a temperature buffer. Comparative plant and mounds measurements were taken from associated and isolated occurrences seasonally. Soil particle size, macro- and micronutrients were also evaluated from mounds and the adjacent topsoil matrix General Additive Mixed Models were used to assess internal mound temperatures in relation to prevailing ambient and plant shade temperatures. Findings revealed that plants growing on mounds were significantly taller with a wider canopy and remained greener in the dry season with more fruits. On the other hand, termite mounds under plants were less prone to be damaged by aardvarks and pangolins and had a significantly wider diameter than exposed mounds. All soil macronutrients except for calcium and phosphorous were enriched in mounds relative to the matrix. Only Manganese was enriched in mounds while the other micronutrients (Cu, Fe, Zn and B) were not. Termite mounds under plants maintained a better constant and higher mean internal temperature during winter compared to exposed mounds. To our best knowledge, the study has revealed a previously undocumented survival mechanism that termites use to escape extreme temperatures and predation in semi-arid savannas.

Keywords: mound, mutualism, soil nutrients, termites, thermoregulation

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398 Road Accident Blackspot Analysis: Development of Decision Criteria for Accident Blackspot Safety Strategies

Authors: Tania Viju, Bimal P., Naseer M. A.

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This study aims to develop a conceptual framework for the decision support system (DSS), that helps the decision-makers to dynamically choose appropriate safety measures for each identified accident blackspot. An accident blackspot is a segment of road where the frequency of accident occurrence is disproportionately greater than other sections on roadways. According to a report by the World Bank, India accounts for the highest, that is, eleven percent of the global death in road accidents with just one percent of the world’s vehicles. Hence in 2015, the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways of India gave prime importance to the rectification of accident blackspots. To enhance road traffic safety and reduce the traffic accident rate, effectively identifying and rectifying accident blackspots is of great importance. This study helps to understand and evaluate the existing methods in accident blackspot identification and prediction that are used around the world and their application in Indian roadways. The decision support system, with the help of IoT, ICT and smart systems, acts as a management and planning tool for the government for employing efficient and cost-effective rectification strategies. In order to develop a decision criterion, several factors in terms of quantitative as well as qualitative data that influence the safety conditions of the road are analyzed. Factors include past accident severity data, occurrence time, light, weather and road conditions, visibility, driver conditions, junction type, land use, road markings and signs, road geometry, etc. The framework conceptualizes decision-making by classifying blackspot stretches based on factors like accident occurrence time, different climatic and road conditions and suggesting mitigation measures based on these identified factors. The decision support system will help the public administration dynamically manage and plan the necessary safety interventions required to enhance the safety of the road network.

Keywords: decision support system, dynamic management, road accident blackspots, road safety

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397 Improving Food Security and Commercial Development through Promotion of High Value Medicinal and Industrial Plants in the Swat Valley of Pakistan

Authors: Hassan Sher

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Agriculture has a pivotal role in Pakistan’s economy, accounting for about one-fourth of the GDP and employing almost half the population. However, the competitiveness, productivity, growth, employment potential, export opportunity, and contribution to GDP of the sector is significantly hampered by agriculture marketing laws/regulations at the provincial level that reward rent seeking behavior, promote monopoly power, artificially reduce farmer incomes while inflating prices to consumers, and act as disincentives to investment. Although of more recent vintage than some other provincial agricultural marketing laws, the NWFP Agricultural and Livestock Produce Markets Act, 2007 is a throwback to a colonial paradigm, where restrictions on agricultural produce marketing and Government control of distribution channels is the norm. The Swat Valley (in which we include its tributary valleys) is an area of Pakistan in which there is poverty is both extreme and pervasive. For many, a significant portion of the family’s income comes from selling plants that are used as herbs, medicines, and perfumes. Earlier studies have shown that the benefit they derive from this work is less than they might because of: Lack of knowledge concerning which plants and which plant parts are valuable, Lack of knowledge concerning optimal preservation and storage of material, illiteracy. Another concern that much of the plant material sold from the valley is collected in the wild, without an appreciation of the negative impact continued collecting has on wild populations. We propose: Creating colored cards to help inhabitants recognize the 25 most valuable plants in their area; Developing and sharing protocols for growing the 25 most valuable plants in a home garden; Developing and sharing efficient mechanisms for drying plants so they do not lose value; Encouraging increased literacy by incorporating numbers and a few words in the handouts.

Keywords: food security, medicinal plants, industrial plants, economic development

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396 Gis-Based Water Pollution Assesment of Buriganga River, Bangladesh

Authors: Nur-E-Jannat Tinu

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Water is absolutely vital not only for the survival of human beings but also for plants, animals, and all other living organisms. Water bodies, such as lakes, rivers, ponds, and estuaries, are the source of water supply in domestic, industrial, agriculture, and aquaculture purposes. The Buriganga River flows through the south and west of Dhaka city. The water quality of this river has become a matter of concern due to anthropogenic intervention of vital pollutants such as industrial effluents, urban sewage, and solid wastes in this area. Buriganga River is at risk to contamination from untreated municipal wastes, industrial discharges, runoff from organic and inorganic fertilizers, pesticides, insecticides, and oil emission around the river. The residential and commercial establishments along the river discharge wastewater either directly into the river or through drains and canals into the river. However, several regulatory measures and policies have been enforced by the Government to protect the river Buriganga from pollution, in most cases to no affect. Water quality assessment reveals that the water is also not appropriate for irrigation purposes. The physical parameters (pH, TDS, EC, Temperature, DO, COD, BOD) indicated that the water is too poor to be useable for agricultural, drinking, or other purposes. Chemical concentrations showed significant seasonal variations with high-level concentrations during the monsoon season, presumably due to extreme seasonal surface runoff. A comparative study of Electrical Conductivity (EC) and Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) indicated a considerable increase over the last five years A change in trend was observed from 2020 June-July, probably due to monsoon and post-monsoon. EC values decreased from 775 to 665 mmho/cm during this period. DO increased significantly from the mid-post-monsoon months to the early monsoon period. The pH value of river water is strongly alkaline, ranging between 6.5 and 7.79. This indicates that ecological organic compounds cause the water to become alkaline after the monsoon and monsoon seasons. As the water pollution level is very high, an effective remediation and pollution control plan should be considered.

Keywords: precipitation, spatial distribution, effluent, remediation

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395 An Exploratory Study to Understand the Economic Opportunities from Climate Change

Authors: Sharvari Parikh

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Climate change has always been looked upon as a threat. Increased use of fossil fuels, depletion of bio diversity, certain human activities, rising levels of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions are the factors that have caused climate change. Climate change is creating new risks and aggravating the existing ones. The paper focuses on breaking the stereotypical perception of climate change and draws attention towards the constructive side of it. Researches around the world have concluded that climate change has provided us with many untapped opportunities. The next 15 years will be crucial, as it is in our hands whether we are able to grab these opportunities or just let the situation get worse. The world stands at a stage where we cannot think of making a choice between averting climate change and promoting growth and development. In fact, the solution to climate change itself has got economic opportunities. The data evidences from the paper show how we can create the opportunity to improve the lives of the world’s population at large through structural change which will promote environment friendly investments. Rising Investment in green energy and increased demand of climate friendly products has got ample of employment opportunities. Old technologies and machinery which are employed today lack efficiency and demand huge maintenance because of which we face high production cost. This can be drastically brought down by adaptation of Green technologies which are more accessible and affordable. Overall GDP of the world has been heavily affected in aggravating the problems arising out of increasing weather problems. Shifting to green economy can not only eliminate these costs but also build a sound economy. Accelerating the economy in direction of low-carbon future can lessen the burdens such as subsidies for fossil fuels, several public debts, unemployment, poverty, reduce healthcare expenses etc. It is clear that the world will be dragged into the ‘Darker phase’ if the current trends of fossil fuels and carbon are being consumed. Switching to Green economy is the only way in which we can lift the world from darker phase. Climate change has opened the gates for ‘Green and Clean economy’. It will also bring countries of the world together in achieving the common goal of Green Economy.

Keywords: climate change, economic opportunities, green economy, green technology

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394 The Lived Experiences of South African Female Offenders and the Possible Links to Recidivism Due to their Exclusion from Educational Rehabilitation Programmes

Authors: Jessica Leigh Thornton

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The South African Constitution outlines provisions for every detainee and sentenced prisoner in relation to the human rights recognized in the country since 1994; but currently, across the country, prisons have yet to meet many of these criteria. Consequently, their day-to-day lives are marked by extreme lack of privacy, high rates of infection, poor nutrition, and deleterious living conditions, which steadily erode prisoners’ mental and physical capacities rather than rehabilitating inmates so that they can effectively reintegrate into society. Even more so, policy reform, advocacy, security, and rehabilitation programs continue to be based on research and theories that were developed to explain the experiences of men, while female offenders are seen as the “special category” of inmates. Yet, the experiences of women and their pathways to incarceration are remarkably different from those of male offenders. Consequently, little is known about the profile, nature and contributing factors and experiences of female offenders which has impeded a comprehensive and integrated understanding of the subject of female criminality. The number of women globally in correctional centers has more than doubled over the past fifteen years (these increases vary from prison to prison and country to country). Yet, female offenders have largely been ignored in research even though the minority status of female offenders is a phenomenon that is not peculiar to South Africa as the number of women incarcerated has increased by 68% within the decade. Within South Africa, there have been minimal studies conducted on the gendered experience of offenders. While some studies have explored the pathways to female offending, gender-sensitive correctional programming for women that respond to their needs has been overlooked. This often leads to a neglect of the needs of female offenders, not only in terms of programs and services delivery to this minority group but also from a research perspective. In response, the aim of the proposed research is twofold: Firstly, the lived experiences and views of rehabilitation and reintegration of female offenders will be explored. Secondly, the various pathways into and out of recidivism amongst female offenders will be investigated regarding their inclusion in educational rehabilitation.

Keywords: female incarceration, educational rehabilitation, exclusion, experiences of female offenders

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393 Estimation of Snow and Ice Melt Contributions to Discharge from the Glacierized Hunza River Basin, Karakoram, Pakistan

Authors: Syed Hammad Ali, Rijan Bhakta Kayastha, Danial Hashmi, Richard Armstrong, Ahuti Shrestha, Iram Bano, Javed Hassan

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This paper presents the results of a semi-distributed modified positive degree-day model (MPDDM) for estimating snow and ice melt contributions to discharge from the glacierized Hunza River basin, Pakistan. The model uses daily temperature data, daily precipitation data, and positive degree day factors for snow and ice melt. The model is calibrated for the period 1995-2001 and validated for 2002-2013, and demonstrates close agreements between observed and simulated discharge with Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.88, respectively. Furthermore, the Weather Research and Forecasting model projected temperature, and precipitation data from 2016-2050 are used for representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and bias correction was done using a statistical approach for future discharge estimation. No drastic changes in future discharge are predicted for the emissions scenarios. The aggregate snow-ice melt contribution is 39% of total discharge in the period 1993-2013. Snow-ice melt contribution ranges from 35% to 63% during the high flow period (May to October), which constitutes 89% of annual discharge; in the low flow period (November to April) it ranges from 0.02% to 17%, which constitutes 11 % of the annual discharge. The snow-ice melt contribution to total discharge will increase gradually in the future and reach up to 45% in 2041-2050. From a sensitivity analysis, it is found that the combination of a 2°C temperature rise and 20% increase in precipitation shows a 10% increase in discharge. The study allows us to evaluate the impact of climate change in such basins and is also useful for the future prediction of discharge to define hydropower potential, inform other water resource management in the area, to understand future changes in snow-ice melt contribution to discharge, and offer a possible evaluation of future water quantity and availability.

Keywords: climate variability, future discharge projection, positive degree day, regional climate model, water resource management

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392 Formation Flying Design Applied for an Aurora Borealis Monitoring Mission

Authors: Thais Cardoso Franco, Caio Nahuel Sousa Fagonde, Willer Gomes dos Santos

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Aurora Borealis is an optical phenomenon composed of luminous events observed in the night skies in the polar regions resulting from disturbances in the magnetosphere due to the impact of solar wind particles with the Earth's upper atmosphere, channeled by the Earth's magnetic field, which causes atmospheric molecules to become excited and emit electromagnetic spectrum, leading to the display of lights in the sky. However, there are still different implications of this phenomenon under study: high intensity auroras are often accompanied by geomagnetic storms that cause blackouts on Earth and impair the transmission of signals from the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Auroras are also known to occur on other planets and exoplanets, so the activity is an indication of active space weather conditions that can aid in learning about the planetary environment. In order to improve understanding of the phenomenon, this research aims to design a satellite formation flying solution for collecting and transmitting data for monitoring aurora borealis in northern hemisphere, an approach that allows studying the event with multipoint data collection in a reduced time interval, in order to allow analysis from the beginning of the phenomenon until its decline. To this end, the ideal number of satellites, the spacing between them, as well as the ideal topology to be used will be analyzed. From an orbital study, approaches from different altitudes, eccentricities and inclinations will also be considered. Given that at large relative distances between satellites in formation, controllers tend to fail, a study on the efficiency of nonlinear adaptive control methods from the point of view of position maintenance and propellant consumption will be carried out. The main orbital perturbations considered in the simulation: non-homogeneity terrestrial, atmospheric drag, gravitational action of the Sun and the Moon, accelerations due to solar radiation pressure and relativistic effects.

Keywords: formation flying, nonlinear adaptive control method, aurora borealis, adaptive SDRE method

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