Search results for: scientific models

Authors: Sh. Hamada

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The current work aims to study the rainbow like-structure observed in the elastic scattering of alpha particles on both ¹²C and ¹⁶O nuclei. We reanalyzed the experimental elastic scattering angular distributions data for α+¹²C and α+¹⁶O nuclear systems at different energies using both optical model and double folding potential of different interaction models such as: CDM3Y1, DDM3Y1, CDM3Y6 and BDM3Y1. Potential created by BDM3Y1 interaction model has the shallowest depth which reflects the necessity to use higher renormalization factor (N_r). Both optical model and double folding potential of different interaction models fairly reproduce the experimental data.

Keywords: density distribution, double folding, elastic scattering, nuclear rainbow, optical model

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Authors: Farzad Danaei, Yilmaz Akkaya

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In many civil engineering applications, especially in the construction of large concrete structures, the early age behavior of concrete has shown to be a crucial problem. The uneven rise in temperature within the concrete in these constructions is the fundamental issue for quality control. Therefore, developing accurate and fast temperature prediction models is essential. The thermal properties of concrete fluctuate over time as it hardens, but taking into account all of these fluctuations makes numerical models more complex. Experimental measurement of the thermal properties at the laboratory conditions also can not accurately predict the variance of these properties at site conditions. Therefore, specific heat capacity and the heat conductivity coefficient are two variables that are considered constant values in many of the models previously recommended. The proposed equations demonstrate that these two quantities are linearly decreasing as cement hydrates, and their value are related to the degree of hydration. The effects of changing the thermal conductivity and specific heat capacity values on the maximum temperature and the time it takes for concrete to reach that temperature are examined in this study using numerical sensibility analysis, and the results are compared to models that take a fixed value for these two thermal properties. The current study is conducted in 7 different mix designs of concrete with varying amounts of supplementary cementitious materials (fly ash and ground granulated blast furnace slag). It is concluded that the maximum temperature will not change as a result of the constant conductivity coefficient, but variable specific heat capacity must be taken into account, also about duration when a concrete's central node reaches its max value again variable specific heat capacity can have a considerable effect on the final result. Also, the usage of GGBFS has more influence compared to fly ash.

Keywords: early-age concrete, mass concrete, specific heat capacity, thermal conductivity coefficient

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Authors: Suhani Srivastava

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This research delves into the classification of orbital debris through machine learning (ML): it will categorize the intensity of the threat orbital debris poses through multiple ML models to gain an insight into effectively estimating the danger specific orbital debris can pose to future space missions. As the space industry expands, orbital debris becomes a growing concern in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because it can potentially obfuscate space missions due to the increased orbital debris pollution. Moreover, detecting orbital debris and identifying its characteristics has become a major concern in Space Situational Awareness (SSA), and prior methods of solely utilizing physics can become inconvenient in the face of the growing issue. Thus, this research focuses on approaching orbital debris concerns through machine learning, an efficient and more convenient alternative, in detecting the potential threat certain orbital debris pose. Our findings found that the Logistic regression machine worked the best with a 98% accuracy and this research has provided insight into the accuracies of specific machine learning models when classifying orbital debris. Our work would help provide space shuttle manufacturers with guidelines about mitigating risks, and it would help in providing Aerospace Engineers facilities to identify the kinds of protection that should be incorporated into objects traveling in the LEO through the predictions our models provide.

Keywords: aerospace, orbital debris, machine learning, space, space situational awareness, nasa

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Authors: Sheena Christabel Pravin, M. Palanivelan

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Speech disfluencies are common in spontaneous speech. The primary purpose of this study was to distinguish linguistic disfluencies from stuttering disfluencies in bilingual Tamil–English (TE) speaking children. The secondary purpose was to determine whether their disfluencies are mediated by native language dominance and/or on an early onset of developmental stuttering at childhood. A detailed study was carried out to identify the prosodic and acoustic features that uniquely represent the disfluent regions of speech. This paper focuses on statistical modeling of repetitions, prolongations, pauses and interjections in the speech corpus encompassing bilingual spontaneous utterances from school going children – English and Tamil. Two classifiers including Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and the Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), which is a class of feed-forward artificial neural network, were compared in the classification of disfluencies. The results of the classifiers document the patterns of disfluency in spontaneous speech samples of school-aged children to distinguish between Children Who Stutter (CWS) and Children with Language Impairment CLI). The ability of the models in classifying the disfluencies was measured in terms of F-measure, Recall, and Precision.

Keywords: bi-lingual, children who stutter, children with language impairment, hidden markov models, multi-layer perceptron, linguistic disfluencies, stuttering disfluencies

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Authors: Isabella Lima Leite de Freitas

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The importance of astronomy for humanity is unquestionable. Despite being a robust science, capable of bringing new discoveries every day and quickly increasing the ability of researchers to understand the universe more deeply, scientific research in this area can also help in various applications outside the domain of astronomy. The objective of this study was to review and conduct a descriptive analysis of published studies that presented the importance of astronomy in the area of education. A narrative review of the literature has been performed, considering the articles published in the last five years. As astronomy involves the study of physics, chemistry, biology, mathematics and technology, one of the studies evaluated presented astronomy as the gateway to science, demonstrating the presence of astronomy in 52 school curricula in 37 countries, with celestial movement the dominant content area. Another intervention study, evaluating individuals aged 4-5 years, demonstrated that the attribution of personal characteristics to cosmic bodies, in addition to the use of comprehensive astronomy concepts, favored the learning of science in preschool-age children, considering the use of practical activities of accompaniment and free drawing. Aiming to measure scientific literacy, another study developed in Turkey, motivated the authorities of this country to change the teaching materials and curriculum of secondary schools after the term “astronomy” appeared as one of the most attractive subjects for young people aged 15 to 24. There are also reports in the literature of the use of pedagogical tools, such as the representation of the Solar System on a human scale, where students can walk along the orbits of the planets while studying the laws of dynamics. The use of this tool favored the teaching of the relationship between distance, duration and speed over the period of the planets, in addition to improving the motivation and well-being of students aged 14-16. An important impact of astronomy on education was demonstrated in the study that evaluated the participation of high school students in the Astronomical Olympiads and the International Astronomy Olympiad. The study concluded that these Olympics have considerable influence on students who pursue a career in teaching or research later on, many of whom are in the area of astronomy itself. In addition, the literature indicates that the teaching of astronomy in the digital age has facilitated the availability of data for researchers, but also for the general population. This fact can increase even more the curiosity that the astronomy area has always instilled in people and promote the dissemination of knowledge on an expanded scale. Currently, astronomy has been considered an important ally in strengthening the school curricula of children, adolescents and young adults. This has been used as teaching tools, in addition to being extremely useful for scientific literacy, being increasingly used in the area of education.

Keywords: astronomy, education area, teaching, review

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Authors: M. Zareh, H. Mohammadi, B. Naser

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Atherosclerotic plaque rupture is the main trigger of heart attack and brain stroke which are the leading cause of death in developed countries. Better understanding of rupture-prone plaque can help clinicians detect vulnerable plaques- rupture prone or instable plaques- and apply immediate medical treatment to prevent these life-threatening cardiovascular events. Therefore, there are plenty of studies addressing disclosure of vulnerable plaques properties. Necrotic core and fibrous tissue are two major tissues constituting atherosclerotic plaque; using histopathological and numerical approaches, many studies have demonstrated that plaque rupture is strongly associated with a large necrotic core and a thin fibrous cap, two morphological characteristic which can be acquired by two-dimensional imaging of atherosclerotic plaque present in coronary and carotid arteries. Plaque rupture is widely considered as a mechanical failure inside plaque tissue; this failure occurs when the stress within plaque excesses the strength of tissue material; hence, finite element method, a strong numerical approach, has been extensively applied to estimate stress distribution within plaques with different compositions which is then used for assessment of various vulnerability characteristics including plaque morphology, material properties and blood pressure. This study aims to evaluate significance of three-dimensional morphology on vulnerability degree of atherosclerotic plaque. To reach this end, different two-dimensional geometrical models of atherosclerotic plaques are considered based on available data and named Main 2D Models (M2M). Then, for each of these M2Ms, two three-dimensional idealistic models are created. These two 3D models represent two possible three-dimensional morphologies which might exist for a plaque with similar 2D morphology to one of M2Ms. Finite element method is employed to estimate stress, von-Mises stress, within each 3D models. Results indicate that for each M2Ms stress can significantly varies due to possible 3D morphological changes in that plaque. Also, our results show that an atherosclerotic plaque with thick cap may experience rupture if it has a critical 3D morphology. This study highlights the effect of 3D geometry of plaque on its instability degree and suggests that 3D morphology of plaque might be necessary to more effectively and accurately assess atherosclerotic plaque vulnerability.

Keywords: atherosclerotic plaque, plaque rupture, finite element method, 3D model

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Authors: Nandini Mohan, Thiruvengadam R. B.

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Mahatma Gandhi advocated that the true indicator of modern India lay in the development of its villages. This has been proven with the recent outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic and the surfacing predicament of our urban centers. Developed on the Industrialization model, the current state of the metropolis is of rampant overcrowding, high rates of unemployment, inadequate infrastructure, and resources to cater to the growing population. A majority of each city’s strength composes of the migrant population, demonstrated through the migrant crisis, a direct repercussion of COVID-19. This paper explores the ideology of how rural development can act as a tactic to counter the high rates of rural-urban migration. It establishes the need for a rural push, as India is predominantly an agrarian economy, with a vast disparity between the urban and rural centers due to its urban bias. It seeks to define development in holistic terms. It studies the models of ‘cluster’ as conceptualized by V.K.R.V. Rao, and detailed by Architect Charles Correa in his book, The New Landscape. The paper reexamines the theory of cluster development through existing models proposed by the government of India. Namely, PURA (Provision of Urban Amenities in Rural Areas), DRI (Deendayal Research Institute), and Rurban under Shyama Prasad Mukharjee Rurban Mission. It analyses the models, their strengths, weaknesses, and reasons for their failure and success to derive parameters for the ideation of an archetype model. A model of rural development that talks of the simultaneous development of existing adjacent villages, by the introduction of set unique functions, that may turn into self-sustaining clusters or agglomerations in the future, which could serve as the next step for Indian village development based on the cluster ideology.

Keywords: counter migration, models of rural development, cluster development theory, India

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Authors: O. I. Nkwonta, B. Dzwairo, J. Adeyemo, A. Jaiyola, N. Sawyerr, F. Otieno

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The effective management of water resources is of great importance to ensure the supply of water resources to support changing water requirements over a selected planning horizon and in a sustainable and cost-effective way. Essentially, the purpose of the water resources planning process is to balance the available water resources in a system with the water requirements and losses to which the system is subjected. In such situations, Water resources yield and planning model can be used to solve those difficulties. It has an advantage over other models by managing model runs, developing a representative system network, modelling incremental sub-catchments, creating a variety of standard system features, special modelling features, and run result output options.

Keywords: complex, water resources, planning, cost effective and management

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Authors: Tarek M. Alguhane, Ayman H. Khalil, M. N. Fayed, Ayman M. Ismail

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This paper deals with different modeling aspects of masonry infill: no infill model, Layered shell infill model, and strut infill model. These models consider the complicated behavior of the in-filled plane frames under lateral load similar to an earthquake load. Three strut infill models are used: NBCC (2005) strut infill model, ASCE/SEI 41-06 strut infill model and proposed strut infill model based on modification to Canadian, NBCC (2005) strut infill model. Pushover and modal analyses of a masonry infill concrete frame with a single storey and an existing 5-storey RC building have been carried out by using different models for masonry infill. The corresponding hinge status, the value of base shear at target displacement as well as their dynamic characteristics have been determined and compared. A validation of the structural numerical models for the existing 5-storey RC building has been achieved by comparing the experimentally measured and the analytically estimated natural frequencies and their mode shapes. This study shows that ASCE/SEI 41-06 equation underestimates the values for the equivalent properties of the diagonal strut while Canadian, NBCC (2005) equation gives realistic values for the equivalent properties. The results indicate that both ASCE/SEI 41-06 and Canadian, NBCC (2005) equations for strut infill model give over estimated values for dynamic characteristic of the building. Proposed modification to Canadian, NBCC (2005) equation shows that the fundamental dynamic characteristic values of the building are nearly similar to the corresponding values using layered shell elements as well as measured field results.

Keywords: masonry infill, framed structures, RC buildings, non-structural elements

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Authors: Fisseha Shiferie (Bpharm, Mpharm)

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Diarrhea is a common gastrointestinal disorder characterized by an increase in stool frequency and a change in stool consistency. Inspite of the availability of many drugs as antidiarrheal agents, the search for a drug with affordable cost and better efficacy is essential to overcome diarrheal problems. The root extract of Echinops kebericho, is used by traditional practitioners for the treatment of diarrhea. However, the scientific basis for this usage has not been yet established. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the antidiarrheal and spasmolytic activities of the aqueous extract of the roots of E. kebericho in rodents and isolated guinea-pig ileum preparations. In the castor oil induced intestinal transit test, E. kebericho produced a significant (p < 0.01) dose dependent decrease in propulsion with peristaltic index values of 45.05±3.3, 42.71±2.25 and 33.17±3.3%, respectively at doses of 100, 200 and 400 mg/kg compared with 63.43±7.3% for control. In the castor oil-induced diarrhea test, the mean defecation was reduced from 1.81±0.18 to 0.99 ± 0.21 compared with 2.59 ±0.81 for control. The extract (at doses stated above) significantly decreased the volume of intestinal fluid secretion induced by castor oil (2.31±0.1 to 2.01±0.2) in relation to 3.28±0.3 for control. When tested on a guinea-pig ileum, root extract of Echinops kebericho exhibited a dose dependent spasmolytic effect, 23.07 % being its highest inhibitory effect. The results obtained in this study give some scientific support to the use of Echinops kebericho as an antidiarrheal agent due to its inhibitory effects on the different diarrheal parameters used in this study.

Keywords: antidiarrheal activity, E. kebericho, traditional medicine, diarrhea, enteropooling, and intestinal transit

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Authors: Danilo Habermann, Aleksander Medella, Carla Cremon, Yusef Caceres

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This paper aims to analyze the ability of 2d point clouds features to classify different models of helicopters using radars. This method does not need to estimate the blade length, the number of blades of helicopters, and the period of their micro-Doppler signatures. It is also not necessary to generate spectrograms (or any other image based on time and frequency domain). This work transforms a radar return signal into a 2D point cloud and extracts features of it. Three classifiers are used to distinguish 9 different helicopter models in order to analyze the performance of the features used in this work. The high accuracy obtained with each of the classifiers demonstrates that the 2D point clouds features are very useful for classifying helicopters from radar signal.

Keywords: helicopter classification, point clouds features, radar, supervised classifiers

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Authors: Jiangxia Han, Liang Xue, Keda Chen

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Despite the significant progress over the last decades in reservoir simulation using numerical discretization, meshing is complex. Moreover, the high degree of freedom of the space-time flow field makes the solution process very time-consuming. Therefore, we present Physics-Informed Convolutional Neural Networks(PICNN) as a hybrid scientific theory and data method for reservoir modeling. Besides labeled data, the model is driven by the scientific theories of the underlying problem, such as governing equations, boundary conditions, and initial conditions. PICNN integrates governing equations and boundary conditions into the network architecture in the form of a customized convolution kernel. The loss function is composed of data matching, initial conditions, and other measurable prior knowledge. By customizing the convolution kernel and minimizing the loss function, the neural network parameters not only fit the data but also honor the governing equation. The PICNN provides a methodology to model and history-match flow and transport problems in porous media. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed PICNN can provide an accurate physical solution from a limited dataset. We show how this method can be applied in the context of a forward simulation for continuous problems. Furthermore, several complex scenarios are tested, including the existence of data noise, different work schedules, and different good patterns.

Keywords: convolutional neural networks, deep learning, flow and transport in porous media, physics-informed neural networks, reservoir simulation

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Authors: Surajit Chakrabarty, Piyush Chauhan, Subhasis Panda, Sujoy Bhattacharya

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A large proportion of roads in India are not well maintained as per the laid down public safety guidelines leading to loss of direction control and fatal accidents. We propose a technique to detect speed breakers and potholes using mobile sensor data captured from multiple vehicles and provide a profile of the road. This would, in turn, help in monitoring roads and revolutionize digital maps. Incorporating randomness in the model formulation for detection of speed breakers and potholes is crucial due to substantial heterogeneity observed in data obtained using a mobile application from multiple vehicles driven by different drivers. This is accomplished with Hidden Markov Models, whose hidden state sequence is found for each time step given the observables sequence, and are then fed as input to LSTM network with peephole connections. A precision score of 0.96 and 0.63 is obtained for classifying bumps and potholes, respectively, a significant improvement from the machine learning based models. Further visualization of bumps/potholes is done by converting time series to images using Markov Transition Fields where a significant demarcation among bump/potholes is observed.

Keywords: deep learning, hidden Markov model, pothole, speed breaker

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Authors: T. Alghamdi, G. Alaghband

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In this paper we develop a model that couples Two Concurrent Convolution Neural Network with different filters (TC*CNN) for face recognition and compare its performance to an existing sequential CNN (base model). We also test and compare the quality and performance of the models on three datasets with various levels of complexity (easy, moderate, and difficult) and show that for the most complex datasets, edges will produce the most accurate and efficient results. We further show that in such cases while Support Vector Machine (SVM) models are fast, they do not produce accurate results.

Keywords: Convolution Neural Network, Edges, Face Recognition , Support Vector Machine.

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Authors: Lukas Reznak, Maria Reznakova

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Recession of an economy has a profound negative effect on all involved stakeholders. It follows that timely prediction of recessions has been of utmost interest both in the theoretical research and in practical macroeconomic modelling. Current mainstream of recession prediction is based on standard OLS models of continuous GDP using macroeconomic data. This approach is not suitable for two reasons: the standard continuous models are proving to be obsolete and the macroeconomic data are unreliable, often revised many years retroactively. The aim of the paper is to explore a different branch of recession forecasting research theory and verify the findings on real data of the Czech Republic and Germany. In the paper, the authors present a family of discrete choice probit models with parameters estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. In the basic form, the probits model a univariate series of recessions and expansions in the economic cycle for a given country. The majority of the paper deals with more complex model structures, namely dynamic and bivariate extensions. The dynamic structure models the autoregressive nature of recessions, taking into consideration previous economic activity to predict the development in subsequent periods. Bivariate extensions utilize information from a foreign economy by incorporating correlation of error terms and thus modelling the dependencies of the two countries. Bivariate models predict a bivariate time series of economic states in both economies and thus enhance the predictive performance. A vital enabler of timely and successful recession forecasting are reliable and readily available data. Leading indicators, namely the yield curve and the stock market indices, represent an ideal data base, as the pieces of information is available in advance and do not undergo any retroactive revisions. As importantly, the combination of yield curve and stock market indices reflect a range of macroeconomic and financial market investors’ trends which influence the economic cycle. These theoretical approaches are applied on real data of Czech Republic and Germany. Two models for each country were identified – each for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive purposes. All four followed a bivariate structure, while three contained a dynamic component.

Keywords: bivariate probit, leading indicators, recession forecasting, Czech Republic, Germany

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Authors: Beverley Gallimore

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The Individuals with Disabilities Education Act of 2004 (IDEA) has helped to improve outcomes for students with special education needs. Through IDEA, students with Special Education Needs (SEN) have opportunities for more equitable education within the General Education classroom. However, students with disabilities lack access to instructions that can help them to maximize their fullest learning potential. Recently, educational stakeholders have emphasized Integrated Co-teaching as a tool to increase engagement and learning outcomes for students with disabilities in general education classrooms. As a result of this new approach, general and special education teachers are working collaboratively to teach students with disabilities. However, co-teaching models are not properly designed and structured to effectively benefit students with disabilities. Teachers must be oriented correctly in the co-teaching models if it is to be beneficial for students.

Keywords: CO-teaching, differentiation, equitable, collaborative

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Authors: Iftikhar A. Tayubi, Tabrej Khan, Mansoor M. Alsubei, Fahad A. Alsaferi

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LIZTOXD provides a single source of high-quality information about proteinaceous lizard toxins that will be an invaluable resource for pharmacologists, neuroscientists, toxicologists, medicinal chemists, ion channel scientists, clinicians, and structural biologists. We will provide an intuitive, well-organized and user-friendly web interface that allows users to explore the detail information of Lizard and toxin proteins. It includes common name, scientific name, entry id, entry name, protein name and length of the protein sequence. The utility of this database is that it can provide a user-friendly interface for users to retrieve the information about Lizard, toxin and toxin protein of different Lizard species. These interfaces created in this database will satisfy the demands of the scientific community by providing in-depth knowledge about Lizard and its toxin. In the next phase of our project we will adopt methodology and by using A MySQL and Hypertext Preprocessor (PHP) which and for designing Smart Draw. A database is a wonderful piece of equipment for storing large quantities of data efficiently. The users can thus navigate from one section to another, depending on the field of interest of the user. This database contains a wealth of information on species, toxins, toxins, clinical data etc. LIZTOXD resource that provides comprehensive information about protein toxins from lizard toxins. The combination of specific classification schemes and a rich user interface allows researchers to easily locate and view information on the sequence, structure, and biological activity of these toxins. This manually curated database will be a valuable resource for both basic researchers as well as those interested in potential pharmaceutical and agricultural applications of lizard toxins.

Keywords: LIZTOXD, MySQL, PHP, smart draw

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Authors: Habib Khodaverdiloo, Fatemeh Afrasiabi, Farrokh Asadzadeh, Martinus Th. Van Genuchten

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The soil particle-size distribution (PSD) is known to affect a broad range of soil physical, mechanical and hydraulic properties. Complete descriptions of a PSD curve should provide more information about these properties as opposed to having only information about soil textural class or the soil sand, silt and clay (SSC) fractions. We compared the accuracy of 19 different models of the cumulative PSD in terms of fitting observed data from a large number of Iranian soils. Parameters of the six most promising models were correlated with measured values of the field saturated hydraulic conductivity (Kfs), the mean weight diameter of soil aggregates (MWD), bulk density (ρb), and porosity (∅). These same soil properties were correlated also with conventional PSD parameters (SSC fractions), selected geometric PSD parameters (notably the mean diameter dg and its standard deviation σg), and several other PSD parameters (D50 and D60). The objective was to find the best predictions of several soil physical quality indices and the soil hydraulic properties. Neither SSC nor dg, σg, D50 and D60 were found to have a significant correlation with both Kfs or logKfs, However, the parameters of several cumulative PSD models showed statistically significant correlation with Kfs and/or logKfs (|r| = 0.42 to 0.65; p ≤ 0.05). The correlation between MWD and the model parameters was generally also higher than either with SSC fraction and dg, or with D50 and D60. Porosity (∅) and the bulk density (ρb) also showed significant correlation with several PSD model parameters, with ρb additionally correlating significantly with various geometric (dg), mechanical (D50 and D60), and agronomic (clay and sand) representations of the PSD. The fitted parameters of selected PSD models furthermore showed statistically significant correlations with Kfs,, MWD and soil porosity, which may be viewed as soil quality indices. Results of this study are promising for developing more accurate pedotransfer functions.

Keywords: particle size distribution, soil texture, hydraulic conductivity, pedotransfer functions

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Authors: Joel Podgorski, Manouchehr Amini, Annette Johnson, Michael Berg

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One-third of the world’s population relies on groundwater for its drinking water. Natural geogenic arsenic and fluoride contaminate ~10% of wells. Prolonged exposure to high levels of arsenic can result in various internal cancers, while high levels of fluoride are responsible for the development of dental and crippling skeletal fluorosis. In poor urban and rural settings, the provision of drinking water free of geogenic contamination can be a major challenge. In order to efficiently apply limited resources in the testing of wells, water resource managers need to know where geogenically contaminated groundwater is likely to occur. The Groundwater Assessment Platform (GAP) fulfills this need by providing state-of-the-art global arsenic and fluoride contamination hazard maps as well as enabling users to create their own groundwater quality models. The global risk models were produced by logistic regression of arsenic and fluoride measurements using predictor variables of various soil, geological and climate parameters. The maps display the probability of encountering concentrations of arsenic or fluoride exceeding the World Health Organization’s (WHO) stipulated concentration limits of 10 µg/L or 1.5 mg/L, respectively. In addition to a reconsideration of the relevant geochemical settings, these second-generation maps represent a great improvement over the previous risk maps due to a significant increase in data quantity and resolution. For example, there is a 10-fold increase in the number of measured data points, and the resolution of predictor variables is generally 60 times greater. These same predictor variable datasets are available on the GAP platform for visualization as well as for use with a modeling tool. The latter requires that users upload their own concentration measurements and select the predictor variables that they wish to incorporate in their models. In addition, users can upload additional predictor variable datasets either as features or coverages. Such models can represent an improvement over the global models already supplied, since (a) users may be able to use their own, more detailed datasets of measured concentrations and (b) the various processes leading to arsenic and fluoride groundwater contamination can be isolated more effectively on a smaller scale, thereby resulting in a more accurate model. All maps, including user-created risk models, can be downloaded as PDFs. There is also the option to share data in a secure environment as well as the possibility to collaborate in a secure environment through the creation of communities. In summary, GAP provides users with the means to reliably and efficiently produce models specific to their region of interest by making available the latest datasets of predictor variables along with the necessary modeling infrastructure.

Keywords: arsenic, fluoride, groundwater contamination, logistic regression

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Authors: Mohd Sabri Minhat, Nurul Adilla Mohd Subha

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The PUSPATI TRIGA Reactor (RTP), Malaysia reached its first criticality on June 28, 1982, with power capacity 1MW thermal. The Feedback Control Algorithm (FCA) which is conventional Proportional-Integral (PI) controller, was used for present power control method to control fission process in RTP. It is important to ensure the core power always stable and follows load tracking within acceptable steady-state error and minimum settling time to reach steady-state power. At this time, the system could be considered not well-posed with power tracking performance. However, there is still potential to improve current performance by developing next generation of a novel design nuclear core power control. In this paper, the dual-mode predictions which are proposed in modelling Optimal Model Predictive Control (OMPC), is presented in a state-space model to control the core power. The model for core power control was based on mathematical models of the reactor core, OMPC, and control rods selection algorithm. The mathematical models of the reactor core were based on neutronic models, thermal hydraulic models, and reactivity models. The dual-mode prediction in OMPC for transient and terminal modes was based on the implementation of a Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) in designing the core power control. The combination of dual-mode prediction and Lyapunov which deal with summations in cost function over an infinite horizon is intended to eliminate some of the fundamental weaknesses related to MPC. This paper shows the behaviour of OMPC to deal with tracking, regulation problem, disturbance rejection and caters for parameter uncertainty. The comparison of both tracking and regulating performance is analysed between the conventional controller and OMPC by numerical simulations. In conclusion, the proposed OMPC has shown significant performance in load tracking and regulating core power for nuclear reactor with guarantee stabilising in the closed-loop.

Keywords: core power control, dual-mode prediction, load tracking, optimal model predictive control

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Authors: Zheng Yi

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Among the attempts made worldwide to foster urban and transport sustainability, transit-oriented development certainly is one of the most successful. Residents' travel behavior is a concern in the researches about the impacts of transit-oriented development. The study takes 620 English journal papers in the core collection database of Web of Science as the study objects; the paper tries to map out the scientific knowledge mapping in the field and draw the basic conditions by co-citation analysis, co-word analysis, a total of citation network analysis and visualization techniques. This study teases out the research hotspots and evolution of the relationship between urban rail transit and resident's travel behavior from 1999 to 2019. According to the results of the analysis of the time-zone view and burst-detection, the paper discusses the trend of the next stage of international study. The results show that in the past 20 years, the research focuses on these keywords: land use, behavior, model, built environment, impact, travel behavior, walking, physical activity, smart card, big data, simulation, perception. According to different research contents, the key literature is further divided into these topics: the attributes of the built environment, land use, transportation network, transportation policies. The results of this paper can help to understand the related researches and achievements systematically. These results can also provide a reference for identifying the main challenges that relevant researches need to address in the future.

Keywords: urban rail transit, travel behavior, knowledge map, evolution of researches

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Authors: Ali Safdari-Vaighani

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Pricing financial contracts on several underlying assets received more and more interest as a demand for complex derivatives. The option pricing under asset price involving jump diffusion processes leads to the partial integral differential equation (PIDEs), which is an extension of the Black-Scholes PDE with a new integral term. The aim of this paper is to show how basket option prices in the jump diffusion models, mainly on the Merton model, can be computed using RBF based approximation methods. For a test problem, the RBF-PU method is applied for numerical solution of partial integral differential equation arising from the two-asset European vanilla put options. The numerical result shows the accuracy and efficiency of the presented method.

Keywords: basket option, jump diffusion, ‎radial basis function, RBF-PUM

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Authors: Asim Majeed, Rehan Bhana, Mak Sharma, Rebecca Goode, Nizam Bolia, Mike Lloyd-Williams

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This study aims to investigate and explore the underlying causes of security concerns of customers emerged when WHSmith transformed its physical system to virtualized business model through NetSuite. NetSuite is essentially fully integrated software which helps transforming the physical system to virtualized business model. Modern organisations are moving away from traditional business models to cloud based models and consequently it is expected to have a better, secure and innovative environment for customers. The vital issue of the modern age race is the security when transforming virtualized through cloud based models and designers of interactive systems often misunderstand privacy and even often ignore it, thus causing concerns for users. The content analysis approach is being used to collect the qualitative data from 120 online bloggers including TRUSTPILOT. The results and finding provide useful new insights into the nature and form of security concerns of online users after they have used the WHSmith services offered online through their website. Findings have theoretical as well as practical implications for the successful adoption of cloud computing Business-to-Business model and similar systems.

Keywords: innovation, virtualization, cloud computing, organizational flexibility

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Authors: Elisa Pautasso, Matteo Castagno, Michele Osella

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In the last decade, the emergence of new social needs as an effect of the economic crisis has stimulated the flourishing of business endeavours characterised by explicit social goals. Social start-ups, social enterprises or Corporate Social Responsibility operations carried out by traditional companies are quintessential examples in this regard. This paper analyses these kinds of initiatives in order to discover the main characteristics of social business models and to provide insights to social entrepreneurs for developing or improving their strategies. The research is conducted through the integration of literature review and case study analysis and, thanks to the recognition of the importance of both profits and social impacts as the key success factors for a social business model, proposes a framework for identifying indicators suitable for measuring the social impacts generated.

Keywords: business model, case study, impacts, social business

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Authors: Souad Romdhane, Lotfi Belkacem

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When referring to actuarial analysis of lifetime, only models accounting for observable risk factors have been developed. Within this context, Cox proportional hazards model (CPH model) is commonly used to assess the effects of observable covariates as gender, age, smoking habits, on the hazard rates. These covariates may fail to fully account for the true lifetime interval. This may be due to the existence of another random variable (frailty) that is still being ignored. The aim of this paper is to examine the shared frailty issue in the Cox proportional hazard model by including two different parametric forms of frailty into the hazard function. Four estimated methods are used to fit them. The performance of the parameter estimates is assessed and compared between the classical Cox model and these frailty models through a real-life data set from the Quebec Pension Plan and then using a more general simulation study. This performance is investigated in terms of the bias of point estimates and their empirical standard errors in both fixed and random effect parts. Both the simulation and the real dataset studies showed differences between classical Cox model and shared frailty model.

Keywords: life insurance-pension plan, survival analysis, risk factors, cox proportional hazards model, multivariate failure-time data, shared frailty, simulations study

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Authors: Achim Kampker, Peter Burggräf, Moritz Krunke, Hanno Voet

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As a reaction to current challenges in factory planning, many companies think about introducing factory standards to lower planning times and decrease planning costs. If these factory standards are set-up with a high level of modularity, they are defined as modular factory systems. This paper deals with the main current problems in the application of modular factory systems in practice and presents a solution approach with its basic models. The methodology is based on methods from factory planning but also uses the tools of other disciplines like product development or technology management to deal with the high complexity, which the development of modular factory systems implies. The four basic models that such a methodology has to contain are introduced and pointed out.

Keywords: factory planning, modular factory systems, factory standards, cost-benefit analysis

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Authors: Al. I. Diwedar, Moheb Iskander, Mohamed Yossef, Ahmed ElKut, Noha Fouad, Radwa Fathy, Mustafa M. Almaghraby, Amira Samir, Ahmed Romya, Nourhan Hassan, Asmaa Abo Zed, Bas Reijmerink, Julien Groenenboom

Abstract:

Coastal problems are stressing the coastal environment due to its complexity. The dynamic interaction between the sea and the land results in serious problems that threaten coastal areas worldwide, in addition to human interventions and activities. This makes the coastal environment highly vulnerable to natural processes like flooding, erosion, and the impact of human activities as pollution. Protecting and preserving this vulnerable coastal zone with its valuable ecosystems calls for addressing the coastal problems. This, in the end, will support the sustainability of the coastal communities and maintain the current and future generations. Consequently applying suitable management strategies and sustainable development that consider the unique characteristics of the coastal system is a must. The coastal management philosophy aims to solve the conflicts of interest between human development activities and this dynamic nature. Modeling emerges as a successful tool that provides support to decision-makers, engineers, and researchers for better management practices. Modeling tools proved that it is accurate and reliable in prediction. With its capability to integrate data from various sources such as bathymetric surveys, satellite images, and meteorological data, it offers the possibility for engineers and scientists to understand this complex dynamic system and get in-depth into the interaction between both the natural and human-induced factors. This enables decision-makers to make informed choices and develop effective strategies for sustainable development and risk mitigation of the coastal zone. The application of modeling tools supports the evaluation of various scenarios by affording the possibility to simulate and forecast different coastal processes from the hydrodynamic and wave actions and the resulting flooding and erosion. The state-of-the-art application of modeling tools in coastal management allows for better understanding and predicting coastal processes, optimizing infrastructure planning and design, supporting ecosystem-based approaches, assessing climate change impacts, managing hazards, and finally facilitating stakeholder engagement. This paper emphasizes the role of hydraulic models in enhancing the management of coastal problems by discussing the diverse applications of modeling in coastal management. It highlights the modelling role in understanding complex coastal processes, and predicting outcomes. The importance of informing decision-makers with modeling results which gives technical and scientific support to achieve sustainable coastal development and protection.

Keywords: coastal problems, coastal management, hydraulic model, numerical model, physical model

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Authors: L. Joseph, B. Farid, F. Ravelet

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Fundamental studies were performed on bifurcation, instabilities and turbulence in Taylor-Couette flow and applied to many engineering applications like astrophysics models in the accretion disks, shrouded fans, and electric motors. Such rotating machinery performances need to have a better understanding of the fluid flow distribution to quantify the power losses and the heat transfer distribution. The present investigation is focused on high gap ratio of Taylor-Couette flow with high rotational speeds, for smooth and grooved surfaces. So far, few works has been done in a very narrow gap and with very high rotation rates and, to the best of our knowledge, not with this combination with grooved surface. We study numerically the turbulent flow between two coaxial cylinders where R1 and R2 are the inner and outer radii respectively, where only the inner is rotating. The gap between the rotor and the stator varies between 0.5 and 2 mm, which corresponds to a radius ratio η = R1/R2 between 0.96 and 0.99 and an aspect ratio Γ= L/d between 50 and 200, where L is the length of the rotor and d being the gap between the two cylinders. The scaling of the torque with the Reynolds number is determined at different gaps for different smooth and grooved surfaces (and also with different number of grooves). The fluid in the gap is air. Re varies between 8000 and 30000. Another dimensionless parameter that plays an important role in the distinction of the regime of the flow is the Taylor number that corresponds to the ratio between the centrifugal forces and the viscous forces (from 6.7 X 105 to 4.2 X 107). The torque will be first evaluated with RANS and U-RANS models, and compared to empirical models and experimental results. A mesh convergence study has been done for each rotor-stator combination. The results of the torque are compared to different meshes in 2D dimensions. For the smooth surfaces, the models used overestimate the torque compared to the empirical equations that exist in the bibliography. The closest models to the empirical models are those solving the equations near to the wall. The greatest torque achieved with grooved surface. The tangential velocity in the gap was always higher in between the rotor and the stator and not on the wall of rotor. Also the greater one was in the groove in the recirculation zones. In order to avoid endwall effects, long cylinders are used in our setup (100 mm), torque is measured by a co-rotating torquemeter. The rotor is driven by an air turbine of an automotive turbo-compressor for high angular velocities. The results of the experimental measurements are at rotational speed of up to 50 000 rpm. The first experimental results are in agreement with numerical ones. Currently, quantitative study is performed on grooved surface, to determine the effect of number of grooves on the torque, experimentally and numerically.

Keywords: Taylor-Couette flow, high gap ratio, grooved surface, high speed

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Authors: Dimitra Marini, Konstantinos Bakogiannis, Spyros Polychronopoulos, Georgios Kouroupetroglou

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Archaemusicology cannot entirely depend on the study of the excavated ancient musical instruments as most of the time their condition is not ideal (i.e., missing/eroded parts) and moreover, because of the concern damaging the originals during the experiments. Researchers, in order to overcome the above obstacles, build replicas. This technique is still the most popular one, although it is rather expensive and time-consuming. Throughout the last decades, the development of physical modeling techniques has provided tools that enable the study of musical instruments through their digitally simulated models. This is not only a more cost and time-efficient technique but also provides additional flexibility as the user can easily modify parameters such as their geometrical features and materials. This paper thoroughly describes the steps to create a physical model of a woodwind ancient Greek instrument, Plagiaulos. This instrument could be considered as the ancestor of the modern flute due to the common geometry and air-jet excitation mechanism. Plagiaulos is comprised of a single resonator with an open end and a number of tone holes. The combination of closed and open tone holes produces the pitch variations. In this work, the effects of all the instrument’s components are described by means of physics and then simulated based on digital waveguides. The synthesized sound of the proposed model complies with the theory, highlighting its validity. Further, the synthesized sound of the model simulating the Plagiaulos of Koile (2nd century BCE) was compared with its replica build in our laboratory by following the scientific methodologies of archeomusicology. The aforementioned results verify that robust dynamic digital tools can be introduced in the field of computational, experimental archaemusicology.

Keywords: archaeomusicology, digital waveguides, musical acoustics, physical modeling

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Authors: Cheng-yu Hsieh, Bo Zhang, Ahmed Hambaba

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Stock market prediction has long been an area of interest for both expert analysts and investors, driven by its complexity and the noisy, volatile conditions it operates under. This research examines the efficacy of combining the Patch Time Series Transformer (PatchTST) with wavelet transforms, specifically focusing on Haar and Daubechies wavelets, in forecasting the adjusted closing price of the S&P 500 index for the following day. By comparing the performance of the augmented PatchTST models with traditional predictive models such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and Transformers, this study highlights significant enhancements in prediction accuracy. The integration of the Daubechies wavelet with PatchTST notably excels, surpassing other configurations and conventional models in terms of Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE). The success of the PatchTST model paired with Daubechies wavelet is attributed to its superior capability in extracting detailed signal information and eliminating irrelevant noise, thus proving to be an effective approach for financial time series forecasting.

Keywords: deep learning, financial forecasting, stock market prediction, patch time series transformer, wavelet transform

Procedia PDF Downloads 50