Search results for: Statistical Approach

Authors: M. Anji Reddy, R. Uma Devi

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Environmental planning for urban development is very much needed to reduce air pollution through the enhancement of vegetative cover in the cities like Hyderabad. This can be mainly based on the selection of appropriate native plant species as bioindicators to assess the impact of ambient Ozone. In the present study, tolerant species are suggested aimed to reduce the magnitude of ambient ozone concentrations which not only increase eco-friendly vegetation but also moderate air pollution. Hyderabad city is divided into 5 zones based on Land Use/Land Cover category further each zone divided into residential, traffic, industrial, and peri-urban areas. Highest ambient ozone levels are recorded in Industrial areas followed by traffic areas in the entire study area ( > 180 µg/m3). Biomonitoring of selected sixteen local urban plant species with the help of Air Pollution Tolerance Index (APTI) showed its susceptibility to air pollution. Statistical regression models in between the tolerant plant species and ambient ozone levels suggested five plant species namely Azardirachta indica A. Juss which have a high tolerant response to ambient ozone followed by Delonix regia Hook. along with Millingtonia hortensis L.f., Alestonia Scholaries L., and Samania saman Jacq. in the industrial and traffic areas of the study area to mitigate ambient Ozone pollution and also to improve urban greenery.

Keywords: air pollution tolerance index, bio-indicators, eco-friendly vegetation, urban greenery

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Authors: M. Mokhber, J. Hedayati

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From the managerial perspective, it is important to devise an operational plan based on top priorities due to limited resources, diversity of measures and high costs needed to improve safety in infrastructure. Dealing with the high-risk corridors across Iran, this study prioritized the corridors according to statistical data on accidents involving fatalities, injury or damage over three consecutive years. In collaboration with the Iranian Police Department, data were collected and modified. Then, the prioritization criteria were specified based on the expertise opinions and international standards. In this study, the prioritization criteria included accident severity and accident density. Finally, the criteria were standardized and weighted (equal weights) to score each high-risk corridor. The prioritization phase involved the scoring and weighting procedure. The high-risk corridors were divided into twelve groups out of 50. The results of data analysis for a three-year span suggested that the first three groups (150 corridors) along with a quarter of Iranian road network length account for nearly 60% of traffic accidents. In the next step, according to variables including weather conditions particular roads for the purpose of winter safety measures were extracted from the abovementioned categories. According to the results ranking, ‎‏9‏‎ roads with the overall ‎length of about ‎‎‏1000‏‎ Km of high-risk corridors are considered as preferences of ‎safety measures‎.

Keywords: high-risk corridors, HRCs, road safety rating, road scoring, winter safety measures

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Authors: Sakine Sincer

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In today’s world, which takes further steps towards globalization each and every day, societies and cultures are re-shaped while the demands of the changing world are described once more. In this atmosphere, where the speed of change sometimes reaches a terrifying point, it is possible to state that effective leaders are needed more than ever in order to meet the above-stated needs and demands. The question of what effective leadership is keeping its importance on the agenda. Most of the answers to this question has mostly focused on the approach of distributed leadership recently. This study aims at analyzing the applicability of distributed leadership, which is accepted to be an example of effective leadership that can meet the needs of global world, which is changing more and more rapidly nowadays, at higher education institutions in Turkey. Within the framework of this study, first of all, the historical development of distributed leadership is addressed, and then a theoretical framework is drawn for this approach by means of underlying what distributed leadership is and is not. After that, different points of view about the approach are laid out within the borders of opinions expressed by Gronn and Spillane, who are accepted to be the most famous advocators of distributed leadership. Then, exemplar practices of distributed leadership are included in the study before drawing attention to the strengths and weaknesses of this approach. Lastly, the applicability of distributed leadership at higher education institutions in Turkey is analyzed. This study is carried out with the method of literature review by resorting to first- and second-hand sources on distributed leadership.

Keywords: globalization, school leadership, distributed leadership, higher education, management

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Authors: Andrea Bellucci, Martina Tofi

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The aim of paper is to analyze business models of bancassurance in Italy for life business. The life insurance business is very developed in the Italian market and banks branches have 80% of the market share. Given its maturity, the life insurance market needs to consolidate its organizational form to allow for the development of non-life business, which nowadays collects few premiums but represents a great opportunity to enlarge the market share of bancassurance using its strength in the distribution channel while the market share of independent agents is decreasing. Starting with the main business model of bancassurance for life business, this paper will analyze the performances of life companies in the Italian market by balance sheet indicators and by main discriminant variables of business models. The study will observe trends from 2013 to 2015 for the Italian market by exploiting a database managed by Associazione Nazionale delle Imprese di Assicurazione (ANIA). The applied approach is based on a bottom-up analysis starting with variables and indicators to define business models’ classification. The statistical classification algorithm proposed by Ward is employed to design business models’ profiles. Results from the analysis will be a representation of the main business models built by their profile related to indicators. In that way, an unsupervised analysis is developed that has the limit of its judgmental dimension based on research opinion, but it is possible to obtain a design of effective business models.

Keywords: bancassurance, business model, non life bancassurance, insurance business value drivers

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Authors: Sung Yong Kim, Byung Joo Song

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Background: Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels has been considered to be inversely related to breast cancer development, recurrence risk, and mortality. Mean vitamin D levels in Korean population is lower than western countries due to higher incidence of lactose intolerance and lower exposure to sunlight. The purpose of this study was to assess incidence of 25(OH)D deficiency at diagnosis and after adjuvant chemotherapy and to investigate the correlation serum 25(OH)D levels with clinicopathologic features. Methods: From December 2011 to October 2012, 280 breast cancer patients seen at a single tertiary cancer center were enrolled. Serum 25(OH)D was measured at the time of surgery and after completion of adjuvant chemotherapy. Statistical analyses used chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, t-test, and ANOVA. Results: Mean serum 25(OH)D was 18.5 ng/ml. The 25(OH)D levels were deficient (<20 ng/ml) in 190 patients (67.9%), insufficient (20-29 ng/ml) in 51 patients(18.2%), and sufficient (30-150 ng/ml) in 39 patients(13.9%). A notable decrease in 25(OH)D concentration was observed(p<0.001) after chemotherapy but was not related to chemotherapy regimens. It was found significant lower 25(OH)D levels at winter season(from October to March, p=0.030). Subjects with invasive carcinoma (IDC or ILC) had significantly lower circulating levels of 25(OH)D than those with ductal carcinoma in situ(DCIS) (p=0.010). Patients with larger tumor size tends to have lower serum 25(OH)D but there were no statistical significance. Conclusions: Most of the breast cancer patients showed deficient or insufficient serum 25(OH)D concentration. Incidence of vitamin D deficiency was higher in invasive carcinoma than DCIS. Serum 25(OH)D levels were decreased after chemotherapy. Consideration should be given to the supplement of vitamin D to those patients.

Keywords: breast neoplasms, vitamin D, Korean population, breast cancer

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Authors: Ouassila Labbani-Narsis, Christophe Nicolle

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Building formal ontologies remains a complex process for companies. In the literature, this process is based on the technical knowledge and expertise of domain experts, without further details on the used methodologies. Possible problems of disagreements between experts, expression of tacit knowledge related to high level know-how rarely verbalized, qualification of results by using cases, or simply adhesion of the group of experts, remain currently unsolved. This paper proposes a methodological approach based on knowledge elicitation for the conception of formal, consensual, and shared ontologies. The proposed approach is experimentally tested on industrial collaboration projects in the field of manufacturing (associating knowledge sources from multinational companies) and in the field of viticulture (associating explicit knowledge and implicit knowledge acquired through observation).

Keywords: collaborative ontology engineering, knowledge elicitation, knowledge engineering, knowledge management

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Authors: Aldilla Damayanti Purnama Ratri, Hendri Subakti, Buldan Muslim

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Ionosphere’s anomalies as an effect of earthquake activity is a phenomenon that is now being studied in seismo-ionospheric coupling. Generally, variation in the ionosphere caused by earthquake activity is weaker than the interference generated by different source, such as geomagnetic storms. However, disturbances of geomagnetic storms show a more global behavior, while the seismo-ionospheric anomalies occur only locally in the area which is largely determined by magnitude of the earthquake. It show that the earthquake activity is unique and because of its uniqueness it has been much research done thus expected to give clues as early warning before earthquake. One of the research that has been developed at this time is the approach of seismo-ionospheric-coupling. This study related the state in the lithosphere-atmosphere and ionosphere before and when earthquake occur. This paper choose the total electron content in a vertical (VTEC) in the ionosphere as a parameter. Total Electron Content (TEC) is defined as the amount of electron in vertical column (cylinder) with cross-section of 1m2 along GPS signal trajectory in ionosphere at around 350 km of height. Based on the analysis of data obtained from the LAPAN agency to identify abnormal signals by statistical methods, obtained that there are an anomaly in the ionosphere is characterized by decreasing of electron content of the ionosphere at 1 TECU before the earthquake occurred. Decreasing of VTEC is not associated with magnetic storm that is indicated as an earthquake precursor. This is supported by the Dst index showed no magnetic interference.

Keywords: earthquake, DST Index, ionosphere, seismoionospheric coupling, VTEC

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Authors: Christopher Celozzi, Sarah Kochav

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Our research investigates the numerous challenges faced by Chinese ESL university students enrolled in the medical and related healthcare professional fields. The over-arching research question is how gender influences classroom participation and learning. The second research question addressed is 'what instructional strategies may be utilized to promote student participation and language acquisition?'. Participants’ language ability has been assessed and evaluated in order to facilitate the establishment of a statistical baseline for the subsequent intervention. This research delves deeper into each individual’s personal and academic circumstances, in an effort to reveal any held intrinsic gender beliefs and social identities that may influence learning. Also considered is the impact on learning for a homogenized student population within a uniform, highly structured learning environment. Specially, what is the influence of China’s ‘one-child policy’ on individual learning habits? The impact of their millennial identity and reliance on social media is also examined. A qualitative methodology with a case study approach is employed, with interviews conducted among the participants. Student response to the intervention and selected remediation strategies are documented, analyzed and discussed. The findings of the study may serve to inform educator instructional practice, while advancing the student learner in their pursuit of English competency in highly competitive professions.

Keywords: Chinese students, gender, English, language acquisition

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Authors: Lina Lukusa, Ulrike Rivett

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Poor water management can increase the extreme pressure already faced by water scarcity. Unless water management is addressed holistically, water quality and quantity will continue to degrade. A holistic approach to water management named Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) has thus been created to facilitate the effective management of water. Traditionally, water management has employed a linear design approach, while WSUD requires a systematic, cyclical approach. In simple terms, WSUD assumes that everything is connected. Hence, it is critical for different stakeholders involved in WSUD to engage and reach a consensus on a solution. However, many stakeholders in WSUD have conflicting interests. Using the soft system methodology (SSM), developed by Peter Checkland, as a problem-solving method, decision-makers can understand this problematic situation from different world views. The SSM addresses ill and complex challenging situations involving human activities in a complex structured scenario. This paper demonstrates how SSM can be applied to understand the complexity of stakeholder engagement in WSUD. The paper concludes that SSM is an adequate solution to understand a complex problem better and then propose efficient solutions.

Keywords: co-design, ICT platform, soft systems methodology, water sensitive urban design

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Authors: Jocelyn L. Alimondo, Juna O. Sabelo

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This study explored the MTB-MLE implementation practices of teachers in one monolingual elementary school and one multilingual elementary school in Benguet, Philippines. It used phenomenological approach employing participant-observation, focus group discussion and individual interview. Data were gathered using a video camera, an audio recorder, and an FGD guide and were treated through triangulation and coding. From the data collected, varied ways in implementing the MTB-MLE program were noted. These are: Teaching using a hybrid first language, teaching using a foreign LOI, using translation and multilingual instruction, and using L2/L3 to unlock L1. However, these practices come with challenges such as the a conflict between the mandated LOI and what pupils need, lack of proficiency of teachers in the mandated LOI, facing unreceptive parents, stagnation of knowledge resulting from over-familiarity of input, and zero learning resulting from an incomprehensible language input. From the practices and challenges experienced by the teachers, a model of MTB-MLE approach, the 3L-in-one approach, to teaching was created to illustrate the practice which teachers claimed to be the best way to address the challenges besetting them while at the same time satisfying the academic needs of their pupils. From the findings, this paper concludes that despite the challenges besetting the teachers, they still displayed creativity in coming up with relevant teaching practices, the unreceptiveness of some teachers and parents sprung from the fact that they do not understand the real concept of MTB-MLE, greater challenges are being faced by teachers in multilingual school due to the diverse linguistic background of their clients, and the most effective approach in implementing MTB-MLE is the multilingual approach, allowing the use of the pupils’ mother tongue, L2 (Filipino), L3 (English), and other languages familiar to the students.

Keywords: MTB-MLE Philippines, MTB-MLE model, first language, multilingual instruction

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Authors: Azimollah Aleshzadeh, Enver Vural Yavuz

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The main goal of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility maps using different data-driven bivariate statistical approaches; namely, entropy weight method (EWM), evidence belief function (EBF), and information content model (ICM), at Uzundere county, Erzurum province, in the north-eastern part of Turkey. Past landslide occurrences were identified and mapped from an interpretation of high-resolution satellite images, and earlier reports as well as by carrying out field surveys. In total, 42 landslide incidence polygons were mapped using ArcGIS 10.4.1 software and randomly split into a construction dataset 70 % (30 landslide incidences) for building the EWM, EBF, and ICM models and the remaining 30 % (12 landslides incidences) were used for verification purposes. Twelve layers of landslide-predisposing parameters were prepared, including total surface radiation, maximum relief, soil groups, standard curvature, distance to stream/river sites, distance to the road network, surface roughness, land use pattern, engineering geological rock group, topographical elevation, the orientation of slope, and terrain slope gradient. The relationships between the landslide-predisposing parameters and the landslide inventory map were determined using different statistical models (EWM, EBF, and ICM). The model results were validated with landslide incidences, which were not used during the model construction. In addition, receiver operating characteristic curves were applied, and the area under the curve (AUC) was determined for the different susceptibility maps using the success (construction data) and prediction (verification data) rate curves. The results revealed that the AUC for success rates are 0.7055, 0.7221, and 0.7368, while the prediction rates are 0.6811, 0.6997, and 0.7105 for EWM, EBF, and ICM models, respectively. Consequently, landslide susceptibility maps were classified into five susceptibility classes, including very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Additionally, the portion of construction and verification landslides incidences in high and very high landslide susceptibility classes in each map was determined. The results showed that the EWM, EBF, and ICM models produced satisfactory accuracy. The obtained landslide susceptibility maps may be useful for future natural hazard mitigation studies and planning purposes for environmental protection.

Keywords: entropy weight method, evidence belief function, information content model, landslide susceptibility mapping

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Authors: Meshandren Naidoo, Amy Gooden

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Implantable brain-computer interface (BCI) technologies have developed to the point where brain-computer communication is possible. This has great potential in the medical field, as it allows persons who have lost capacities. However, ethicists and regulators call for a strict approach to these technologies due to the impact on personhood. This research demonstrates that the personhood debate is more nuanced and that where an African approach to personhood is used, it may produce results more favorable to the development and use of this technology.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, law, neuroscience, ethics

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Authors: Nisa Özge Önal, Kamil Karaçuha, Göksu Hazar Erdinç, Banu Bahar Karaçuha, Ertuğrul Karaçuha

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The study aims to use a mathematical approach with the fractional calculus which is developed to have the ability to continuously analyze the factors related to the children’s height development. Until now, tracking the development of the child is getting more important and meaningful. Knowing and determining the factors related to the physical development of the child any desired time would provide better, reliable and accurate results for childcare. In this frame, 7 groups for height percentile curve (3th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, and 97th) of Turkey are used. By using discrete height data of 0-18 years old children and the least squares method, a continuous curve is developed valid for any time interval. By doing so, in any desired instant, it is possible to find the percentage and location of the child in Percentage Chart. Here, with the help of the fractional calculus theory, a mathematical model is developed. The outcomes of the proposed approach are quite promising compared to the linear and the polynomial method. The approach also yields to predict the expected values of children in the sense of height.

Keywords: children growth percentile, children physical development, fractional calculus, linear and polynomial model

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Authors: Bezhan Ghvaberidze

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A multiple criteria optimization approach for the solution of the Fuzzy Vehicle Routing Problem (FVRP) is proposed. For the possibility environment the levels of movements between customers are calculated by the constructed simulation interactive algorithm. The first criterion of the bi-criteria optimization problem - minimization of the expectation of total fuzzy travel time on closed routes is constructed for the FVRP. A new, second criterion – maximization of feasibility of movement on the closed routes is constructed by the Choquet finite averaging operator. The FVRP is reduced to the bi-criteria partitioning problem for the so called “promising” routes which were selected from the all admissible closed routes. The convenient selection of the “promising” routes allows us to solve the reduced problem in the real-time computing. For the numerical solution of the bi-criteria partitioning problem the -constraint approach is used. An exact algorithm is implemented based on D. Knuth’s Dancing Links technique and the algorithm DLX. The Main objective was to present the new approach for FVRP, when there are some difficulties while moving on the roads. This approach is called FVRP for extreme conditions (FVRP-EC) on the roads. Also, the aim of this paper was to construct the solving model of the constructed FVRP. Results are illustrated on the numerical example where all Pareto-optimal solutions are found. Also, an approach for more complex model FVRP with time windows was developed. A numerical example is presented in which optimal routes are constructed for extreme conditions on the roads.

Keywords: combinatorial optimization, Fuzzy Vehicle routing problem, multiple objective programming, possibility theory

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Authors: G. Murtaza, H. Faiza, M. Rafiq, S. Gul, F. Raza, Sarwat Anjum

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Our objective was to investigate whether and how extensively there is a correlation between aging in men, gonadotropin hormone regulation, and a decline in sperm parameters and whether it is possible to identify an age limit beyond which the decrease in sperm feature and hormonal regulation reaches statistical significance. A total of one hundred and twenty men (age: 20–50 years) were divided into two groups; each group contained 60 males (Group A with a young age of 20–35 years and Group B with an older age of 36–50 years) who visited the Center for Reproductive Medicine (CRM) in Peshawar General Hospital (PGH) Peshawar, Pakistan. Clinical assessment and sperm analysis were investigated. Hormone testing and semen analysis were carried out in accordance with World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. Hormone tests, sperm morphology, and the total motile spermatozoa count (TMS) were computed. SPSS 20.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA) was used for the statistical analysis. It was observed that the testosterone levels in Group A (mean = 3.770) and Group B (mean = 3.995) were comparable, with a significant P-value <0.005 in both age groups. Furthermore, similar levels are shown by follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) (Group A mean = 19.73, Group B mean = 15.64) and luteinizing hormone (LH) (Group A mean = 12.25, Group B mean = 11.93) in both groups, with a significant P = <0.005. Sperm concentrations were most similar in Group A, with a mean of 4.44, and in Group B, with a mean of 4.42 and a significant P value of 0.005 in both groups. Additionally, it was discovered that sperm motility was higher in Group A, with a mean of 22.40 and a P-value of 0.052, which was non-significant when compared to Group B. Morphological differences were also observed in both age groups. This research found that advancing in male age does not affect sex hormone regulation; in contrast, the fraction of motile and morphologically normal spermatozoa decreases as male age increases, with the strongest evidence being when the age exceeds 40 years. To clarify the causes and clinical implications of these correlations, more research is necessary.

Keywords: gonadotropins, motility, spermatozoa, testosterone

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Authors: Vaishali Joshi, Pallav Joshi

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Environment concern has become an important topic and continues to acquire more popularity in the coming scenario. We all are exposed to messages daily, which encourage us to involve in green behavior. Factors such as Global Warming, Climate change are creating a big buzz amongst the people. Realizing this, many firms/companies are adopting the bright way of making profit along with creating a brand image, by going green. These firms/companies persuade consumers to use purchase eco-friendly products for the benefit of the environment and the society. In such scenario, it becomes very essential for such firms/companies to approach the customers in a better way. In other words, we can say that marketing approach plays a crucial role for such firm/companies. Hence in this research study, we have tried to create a marketing approach for the firms/companies for selling the eco-friendly apparels. We have studied the hypothetical apparel brand who has taken a green initiative of making their products eco-friendly. We have named this hypothetical brand as “Go-Green”. By taking this hypothetical brand we have studied about how this brand can achieve better marketing approach. In particular, we have studied the four types of print advertisements of this brand as follows :(i) print advertisement showing only eco-friendly apparel (ii) print advertisement showing eco-friendly apparel labeled with eco-label (iii) print advertisement showing eco-friendly apparel along with information about the benefit of the featured apparel and (iv) print advertisement showing eco-friendly apparel with both eco-label and information about the benefit of the featured apparel. The conclusion of this research suggest that respondents more positively evaluate the print advertisement of eco-friendly apparel labeled with eco-labels and information about the benefit of the featured apparel, compared by other three print advertisement. Moreover, in this research study, we have studied environment knowledge, as the moderating factor affecting the consumer green purchase behavior.

Keywords: eco-friendly apparel, print advertisement, eco-label, environment knowledge

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Authors: Ligia Florio, João Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia

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Background: Food addiction (FA) emerged in the 1990s as a possible contributor to the increasing prevalence of obesity and overweight, in conjunction with changing food environments and mental health conditions. However, FA is not yet listed as one of the disorders in the DSM-5 and/or the ICD-11. Although there are controversies and debates in the literature about the classification and construct of FA, the most common approach to access it is the use of a research tool - the Yale Food Addiction Scale (YFAS) - which approximates the concept of FA to the concept diagnosis of dependence on psychoactive substances. There is a need to explore the dimensional phenotypes accessed by YFAS in different population groups for a better understanding and scientific support of FA diagnoses. Methods: The primary objective of this project was to investigate the construct validity of the FA concept by mYFAS 2.0 in individuals who underwent bariatric surgery (n = 100) at the Hospital Estadual Mário Covas since 2011. Statistical analyzes were conducted using the STATA software. In this sense, structural or factor validity was the type of construct validity investigated using exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and item response theory (IRT) techniques. Results: EFA showed that the one-dimensional model was the most parsimonious. The IRT showed that all criteria contributed to the latent structure, presenting discrimination values greater than 0.5, with most presenting values greater than 2. Conclusion: This study reinforces a FA dimension in patients who underwent bariatric surgery. Within this dimension, we identified the most severe and discriminating criteria for the diagnosis of FA.

Keywords: obesity, food addiction, bariatric surgery, regain

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Authors: Bita Payami-Shabestari, Dariush Eslami

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The purpose of this paper is to develop a multi-product economic production quantity model under vendor management inventory policy and restrictions including limited warehouse space, budget, and number of orders, average shortage time and maximum permissible shortage. Since the “costs” cannot be predicted with certainty, it is assumed that data behave under uncertain environment. The problem is first formulated into the framework of a bi-objective of multi-product economic production quantity model. Then, the problem is solved with three multi-objective decision-making (MODM) methods. Then following this, three methods had been compared on information on the optimal value of the two objective functions and the central processing unit (CPU) time with the statistical analysis method and the multi-attribute decision-making (MADM). The results are compared with statistical analysis method and the MADM. The results of the study demonstrate that augmented-constraint in terms of optimal value of the two objective functions and the CPU time perform better than global criteria, and goal programming. Sensitivity analysis is done to illustrate the effect of parameter variations on the optimal solution. The contribution of this research is the use of random costs data in developing a multi-product economic production quantity model under vendor management inventory policy with several constraints.

Keywords: economic production quantity, random cost, supply chain management, vendor-managed inventory

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Authors: Abdullah Alotaiq, David Wallom, Malcolm McCulloch

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This study presents an archetype-based approach to designing effective strategies for low-carbon transitions in the power sector. To achieve global energy transition goals, a renewable energy transition is critical, and understanding diverse energy landscapes across different countries is essential to design effective renewable energy policies and strategies. Using a clustering approach, this study identifies 12 energy archetypes based on the electricity mix, socio-economic indicators, and renewable energy contribution potential of 187 UN countries. Each archetype is characterized by distinct challenges and opportunities, ranging from high dependence on fossil fuels to low electricity access, low economic growth, and insufficient contribution potential of renewables. Archetype A, for instance, consists of countries with low electricity access, high poverty rates, and limited power infrastructure, while Archetype J comprises developed countries with high electricity demand and installed renewables. The study findings have significant implications for renewable energy policymaking and investment decisions, with policymakers and investors able to use the archetype approach to identify suitable renewable energy policies and measures and assess renewable energy potential and risks. Overall, the archetype approach provides a comprehensive framework for understanding diverse energy landscapes and accelerating decarbonisation of the power sector.

Keywords: fossil fuels, power plants, energy transition, renewable energy, archetypes

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Authors: Akshay S. Dalvi, Hazim El-Mounayri

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The internal and the external interactions between the complex structural and behavioral characteristics of the complex energy system result in unpredictable emergent behaviors. These emergent behaviors are not well understood, especially when modeled using the traditional top-down systems engineering approach. The intrinsic nature of current complex energy systems has called for an elegant solution that provides an integrated framework in Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE). This paper mainly presents a MBSE driven approach to define and handle the complexity that arises due to emergent behaviors. The approach provides guidelines for developing system architecture that leverages in predicting the complexity index of the system at different levels of abstraction. A framework that integrates indefinite and definite modeling aspects is developed to determine the complexity that arises during the development phase of the system. This framework provides a workflow for modeling complex systems using Systems Modeling Language (SysML) that captures the system’s requirements, behavior, structure, and analytical aspects at both problem definition and solution levels. A system architecture for a district cooling plant is presented, which demonstrates the ability to predict the complexity index. The result suggests that complex energy systems like district cooling plant can be defined in an elegant manner using the unconventional modified MBSE driven approach that helps in estimating development time and cost.

Keywords: district cooling plant, energy systems, framework, MBSE

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Authors: Omar Faruqe Hamim, M. Shamsul Hoque, Rich C. McIlroy, Katherine L. Plant, Neville A. Stanton

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Road safety has become an alarming issue, especially in low-middle income developing countries. The traditional approaches lack the out of the box thinking, making engineers confined to applying usual techniques in making roads safer. A socio-technical approach has recently been introduced in improving road intersections through designing with intent. This Design With Intent (DWI) approach aims to give practitioners a more nuanced approach to design and behavior, working with people, people’s understanding, and the complexities of everyday human experience. It's a collection of design patterns —and a design and research approach— for exploring the interactions between design and people’s behavior across products, services, and environments, both digital and physical. Through this approach, it can be seen that how designing with people in behavior change can be applied to social and environmental problems, as well as commercially. It has a total of 101 cards across eight different lenses, such as architectural, error-proofing, interaction, ludic, perceptual, cognitive, Machiavellian, and security lens each having its own distinct characteristics of extracting ideas from the participant of this approach. For this research purpose, a three-legged accident blackspot intersection of a national highway has been chosen to perform the DWI workshop. Participants from varying fields such as civil engineering, naval architecture and marine engineering, urban and regional planning, and sociology actively participated for a day long workshop. While going through the workshops, the participants were given a preamble of the accident scenario and a brief overview of DWI approach. Design cards of varying lenses were distributed among 10 participants and given an hour and a half for brainstorming and generating ideas to improve the safety of the selected intersection. After the brainstorming session, the participants spontaneously went through roundtable discussions regarding the ideas they have come up with. According to consensus of the forum, ideas were accepted or rejected. These generated ideas were then synthesized and agglomerated to bring about an improvement scheme for the intersection selected in our study. To summarize the improvement ideas from DWI approach, color coding of traffic lanes for separate vehicles, channelizing the existing bare intersection, providing advance warning traffic signs, cautionary signs and educational signs motivating road users to drive safe, using textured surfaces at approach with rumble strips before the approach of intersection were the most significant one. The motive of this approach is to bring about new ideas from the road users and not just depend on traditional schemes to increase the efficiency, safety of roads as well and to ensure the compliance of road users since these features are being generated from the minds of users themselves.

Keywords: design with intent, road safety, human experience, behavior

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Authors: Joanna Kochanska, Dagmara Gornicka, Anna Burduk

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The article examines the process of implementing a new assembly line in a manufacturing enterprise of the household appliances industry area. At the initial stages of the project, a decision was made that one of its foundations should be the concept of lean management. Because of that, eliminating as many errors as possible in the first phases of its functioning was emphasized. During the start-up of the line, there were identified and documented all production losses (from serious machine failures, through any unplanned downtime, to micro-stops and quality defects). During 6 weeks (line start-up period), all errors resulting from problems in various areas were analyzed. These areas were, among the others, production, logistics, quality, and organization. The aim of the work was to analyze the occurrence of production failures during the initial phase of starting up the line and to propose a method for determining their critical level during its full functionality. There was examined the repeatability of the production losses in various areas and at different levels at such an early stage of implementation, by using the methods of statistical process control. Based on the Pareto analysis, there were identified the weakest points in order to focus improvement actions on them. The next step was to examine the effectiveness of the actions undertaken to reduce the level of recorded losses. Based on the obtained results, there was proposed a method for determining the critical failures level in the studied areas. The developed coefficient can be used as an alarm in case of imbalance of the production, which is caused by the increased failures level in production and production support processes in the period of the standardized functioning of the line.

Keywords: production failures, level of production losses, new production line implementation, assembly line, statistical process control

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Authors: Muath Awadalla, Maen Awadallah

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Banking sector covers different activities including lending money to customers. However, it is commonly known that customers pay money they have borrowed including an added amount called interest. Compound interest rate is an approach used in determining the interest to be paid. The instant compounded amount to be paid by a debtor is obtained through a differential equation whose main parameters are the rate and the time. The rate used by banks in a country is often defined by the government of the said country. In Switzerland, for instance, a negative rate was once applied. In this work, a new approach of modeling the compound interest is proposed using Hadamard fractional derivative. As a result, it appears that depending on the fraction value used in derivative the amount to be paid by a debtor might either be higher or lesser than the amount determined using the classical approach.

Keywords: compound interest, fractional differential equation, hadamard fractional derivative, optimization

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Authors: Tiee-Jian Wu, Chih-Yuan Hsu

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Mode estimation is an important task, because it has applications to data from a wide variety of sources. We propose a semi-parametric approach to estimate the mode of an unknown continuous multivariate density function. Our approach is based on a weighted average of a parametric density estimate using the Box-Cox transform and a non-parametric kernel density estimate. Our semi-parametric mode estimate improves both the parametric- and non-parametric- mode estimates. Specifically, our mode estimate solves the non-consistency problem of parametric mode estimates (at large sample sizes) and reduces the variability of non-parametric mode estimates (at small sample sizes). The performance of our method at practical sample sizes is demonstrated by simulation examples and two real examples from the fields of climatology and image recognition.

Keywords: Box-Cox transform, density estimation, mode seeking, semiparametric method

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Authors: Shilpa Avarebeel

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Background: India is one of the seven identified countries in South-East Asia region, regularly reporting dengue infection and may soon transform into a major niche for dengue epidemics. Objective: To study the clinical profile of dengue in our setting with special reference to respiratory complication. Study design: Descriptive and exploratory study, for one year in 2014. All patients confirmed as dengue infection were followed and their clinical profile, along with outcome was determined. Study proforma was designed based on the objective of the study and it was pretested and used after modification. Data was analyzed using statistical software SPSS-Version 16. Data were expressed as mean ±S .D for parametric variables and actual frequencies or percentage for non-parametric data. Comparison between groups was done using students’ t-test for independent groups, Chie square test, one-way ANOVA test, Karl Pearson’s correlation test. Statistical significance is taken at P < 0.05. Results: Study included 134 dengue positive cases. 81% had dengue fever, 18% had dengue hemorrhagic fever, and one had dengue shock syndrome. Most of the cases reported were during the month of June. Maximum number of cases was in the age group of 26-35 years. Average duration of hospital stay was less than seven days. Fever and myalgia was present in all the 134 patients, 16 had bleeding manifestation. 38 had respiratory symptoms, 24 had breathlessness, and 14 had breathlessness and dry cough. On clinical examination of patients with respiratory symptoms, all twenty-eight had hypoxia features, twenty-four had signs of pleural effusion, and four had ARDS features. Chest x-ray confirmed the same. Among the patients with respiratory symptoms, the mean platelet count was 26,537 c/cmm. There was no statistical significant difference in the platelet count in those with ARDS and other dengue complications. Average four units of platelets were transfused to all those who had ARDS in view of bleeding tendency. Mechanical ventilator support was provided for ARDS patients. Those with pleural effusion and pulmonary oedema were given NIV (non-invasive ventilation) support along with supportive care. However, steroids were given to patients with ARDS and 10 patients with signs of respiratory distress. 100%. Mortality was seen in patients with ARDS. Conclusion: Dengue has to be checked for those presenting with fever and breathlessness. Supportive treatments remain the cornerstone of treatment. Platelet transfusion has to be given only by clinical judgment. Steroids have no role except in early ARDS, which is controversial. Early NIV support helps in speedy recovery of dengue patients with respiratory distress.

Keywords: adult respiratory distress syndrome, dengue fever, non-invasive ventilation, pulmonary complication

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Authors: Dhruvit S. Berawala, Jann R. Ursin, Obrad Slijepcevic

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Shale gas is one of the most rapidly growing forms of natural gas. Unconventional natural gas deposits are difficult to characterize overall, but in general are often lower in resource concentration and dispersed over large areas. Moreover, gas is densely packed into the matrix through adsorption which accounts for large volume of gas reserves. Gas production from tight shale deposits are made possible by extensive and deep well fracturing which contacts large fractions of the formation. The conventional reservoir modelling and production forecasting methods, which rely on fluid-flow processes dominated by viscous forces, have proved to be very pessimistic and inaccurate. This paper presents a new approach to forecast shale gas production by detailed modeling of gas desorption, diffusion and non-linear flow mechanisms in combination with statistical representation of these processes. The representation of the model involves a cube as a porous media where free gas is present and a sphere (SiC: Sphere in Cube model) inside it where gas is adsorbed on to the kerogen or organic matter. Further, the sphere is considered consisting of many layers of adsorbed gas in an onion-like structure. With pressure decline, the gas desorbs first from the outer most layer of sphere causing decrease in its molecular concentration. The new available surface area and change in concentration triggers the diffusion of gas from kerogen. The process continues until all the gas present internally diffuses out of the kerogen, gets adsorbs onto available surface area and then desorbs into the nanopores and micro-fractures in the cube. Each SiC idealizes a gas pathway and is characterized by sphere diameter and length of the cube. The diameter allows to model gas storage, diffusion and desorption; the cube length takes into account the pathway for flow in nanopores and micro-fractures. Many of these representative but general cells of the reservoir are put together and linked to a well or hydraulic fracture. The paper quantitatively describes these processes as well as clarifies the geological conditions under which a successful shale gas production could be expected. A numerical model has been derived which is then compiled on FORTRAN to develop a simulator for the production of shale gas by considering the spheres as a source term in each of the grid blocks. By applying SiC to field data, we demonstrate that the model provides an effective way to quickly access gas production rates from shale formations. We also examine the effect of model input properties on gas production.

Keywords: adsorption, diffusion, non-linear flow, shale gas production

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Authors: Adam Jenkins

Abstract:

The Maritime RobotX Challenge provides a platform for postgraduate students conducting research in autonomous robotic systems to participate in an international competition. Although targeted to postgraduate students, the problem domain lends itself to a wide range of different levels of student expertise. In 2022, undergraduate Information Technology students from the University of South Australia undertook the challenge, utilizing a System of the Systems approach to the project's architecture. Each student group produced an independent solution to an identified task, which was then implemented on a Single Board Computer (SBC). A Central Control System then engaged each solution when appropriate, allowing the encapsulated SBC systems to manage each task as it was encountered. This approach facilitated collaboration among the multiple independent student teams over an 18-month period, and the fundamental system-agnostic architecture allowed for both the variance in student solutions and the limitations caused by the global electronics shortage. By adopting this approach, Information Technology teams were able to work independently yet produce an effective solution, leveraging their expertise to develop and construct an autonomous catamaran capable of meeting the competition's demanding requirements while producing a high level of engagement. The System of Systems approach is recommended to other universities interested in competing at this level and engaging students in a real-world problem.

Keywords: case study, robotics, education, programming, system of systems, multi-disciplinary collaboration

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Authors: Sara Mostowfi, Hassan Sadeghinaeini, Sana Behnamasl, Leila Ensaniat, Maryam Mostafaee

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Nowadays, most of product producers, e.g. home appliance, electronic machines and vehicles focus on quality and comfort, and promise consumers ease of use and pleasurable experiences during product using. Consumers make their purchase decisions according to two needs: functional and emotional needs. Functional needs are fulfilled by product functionality, besides emotional needs are related to psychologists’ aspects of production. Emotions are distinctive elements which should be added to products and services to lead them up. In this case, the authors’ survey conducted pleasurable and hedonomic aspects in products of a home appliance company in Iran. In this regard, three samples of home appliance were selected: mixer, rice cooker, iron. Fifteen women (20-60) participated in this study. Every user evaluated each product by questionnaire based on 7 point semantic differential scale. After analyzing the results with statistical methods, results showed that 90% of users aren’t satisfied with hedonic and pleasurable criteria in interaction with these products. They notified that regarding hedonomics and pleasurable criteria’s they will have better ease of use and functionality. Our findings show a significant association between products’ features and user satisfaction. It seems that industrial design has a significant impression on the company’s products and with regard the pleasurable criteria the company sales will be more successful.

Keywords: home appliance, interaction, pleasure, hedonomy, ergonomy

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Authors: Khalaf Khatatneh, Nabeel Al-Milli, Amjad Hudaib, Monther Ali Tarawneh

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Software fault prediction identify potential faults in software modules during the development process. In this paper, we present a novel approach for software fault prediction by combining a feedforward neural network with particle swarm optimization (PSO). The PSO algorithm is employed as a feature selection technique to identify the most relevant metrics as inputs to the neural network. Which enhances the quality of feature selection and subsequently improves the performance of the neural network model. Through comprehensive experiments on software fault prediction datasets, the proposed hybrid approach achieves better results, outperforming traditional classification methods. The integration of PSO-based feature selection with the neural network enables the identification of critical metrics that provide more accurate fault prediction. Results shows the effectiveness of the proposed approach and its potential for reducing development costs and effort by detecting faults early in the software development lifecycle. Further research and validation on diverse datasets will help solidify the practical applicability of the new approach in real-world software engineering scenarios.

Keywords: feature selection, neural network, particle swarm optimization, software fault prediction

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Authors: Abdolmajid Mosleh, Afzal Ghasimi

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The purpose of this research is to investigate and identify effective factors that can improve the quality of personal performance in industrial companies. In the present study, it was assumed that the hidden variables of talent management could be explained by an important part of the variance in improving the quality of employee performance. This research is targeted in terms of applied research. The statistical population of the research is SAIPA automobile company with a number (N=10291); the sample of 380 people was selected based on the Cochran formula in a random sampling method among employed people. The measurement tool in this research was a questionnaire of 33 items with a control questionnaire that included two talent management departments (talent identification and talent exploitation) and improvements in staff performance (enhancement of technical and specialized capabilities, managerial capability, organizational interaction, and communication). The reliability of the internal consistency method was confirmed by the Cronbach's alpha coefficient and the two half-ways. In order to determine the validity of the questionnaire structure, confirmatory factor analysis was used. Based on the results of the data analysis, the effect of talent management on improving the quality of staff performance was confirmed. Based on the results of inferential statistics and structural equations of the proposed model, it had high fitness.

Keywords: employee performance, talent management, performance improvement, SAIPA automobile manufacturing company

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