Search results for: supply chain maps
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 4348

Search results for: supply chain maps

3328 Removal of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFASs) Contaminants from the Aqueous Phase Using Chitosan Beads

Authors: Rahim Shahrokhi, Junboum Park

Abstract:

Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFASs) are environmentally persistent halogenated hydrocarbons that have been widely used in many industrial and commercial applications. Recently, contaminating the soil and groundwater due to the ubiquity of PFAS in environments has raised great concern. Adsorption technology is one of the most promising methods for PFAS removal. Chitosan is a biopolymer substance with abundant amine and hydroxyl functional groups, which render it a good adsorbent. This study has tried to enhance the adsorption capacity of chitosan by grafting more amine functional groups on its surface for the removal of two long (PFOA and PFOS) and two short-chain (PFBA, PFBS) PFAS substances from the aqueous phase. A series of batch adsorption tests have been performed to evaluate the adsorption capacity of the used sorbent. Also, the sorbent was analyzed by SEM, FT-IR, zeta potential, and XRD tests. The results demonstrated that both chitosan beads have good potential for adsorbing short and long-chain PFAS from the aqueous phase.

Keywords: PFAS, chitosan beads, adsorption, grafted chitosan

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3327 Adsorption Behavior and Mechanism of Illite Surface under the Action of Different Surfactants

Authors: Xiuxia Sun, Yan Jin, Zilong Liu, Shiming Wei

Abstract:

As a critical mineral component of shale, illite is essential in oil exploration and development due to its surface hydration characteristics and action mechanism. This paper, starting from the perspective of the molecular structure of organic matter, uses molecular dynamics simulation technology to deeply explore the interaction mechanism between organic molecules and the illite surface. In the study, we thoroughly considered the forces such as van der Waals force, electrostatic force, and steric hindrance and constructed an illite crystal model covering C8-C18 modifiers. Subsequently, we systematically analyzed surfactants' adsorption behavior and hydration characteristics with different alkyl chain numbers, lengths, and concentrations on the illite surface. The simulation results show that surfactant molecules with shorter alkyl chains present a lateral monolayer or inclined double-layer arrangement on the illite surface, and these two arrangements may coexist under different concentration conditions. In addition, with the increase in the number of alkyl chains, the interlayer spacing of illite increases significantly. In contrast, the change in alkyl chain length has a limited effect on surface properties. It is worth noting that the change in functional group structure has a particularly significant effect on the wettability of the illite surface, and its influence even exceeds the change in the alkyl chain structure. This discovery gives us a new perspective on understanding and regulating the wetting properties. The results obtained are consistent with the XRD analysis and wettability experimental data in this paper, further confirming the reliability of the research conclusions. This study deepened our understanding of illite's hydration characteristics and mechanism. We provided new ideas and directions for the molecular design and application development of oilfield chemicals.

Keywords: illite, surfactant, hydration, wettability, adsorption

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3326 Mechanisms for the Art of Food: Tourism with Thainess and a Multi-Stakeholder Participation Approach

Authors: Jutamas Wisansing, Thanakarn Vongvisitsin, Udom Hongchatikul

Abstract:

Food could be used to open up a dialogue about local heritage. Contributing to the world sustainable consumption mission, this research aims to explore the linkages between agriculture, senses of place and performing arts. Thailand and its destination marketing ‘Discover Thainess’ was selected as a working principle, enabling a case example of how the three elements could be conceptualized. The model offered an integrated institutional arrangement where diverse entities could be formed to design how Thainess (local heritage) could be interpreted and embedded into an art of food. Using case study research approach, three areas (Chiangmai, Samutsongkram and Ban Rai Gong King) representing 3 different scales of tourism development were selected. Based on a theoretical analysis, a working model was formulated. An action research was then designed to experiment how the model could be materialized. Brainstorming elicitation and in-depth interview were employed to reflect on how each element could be integrated. The result of this study offered an innovation on how food tourism could be profoundly interpreted and how tourism development could enhance value creation for agricultural based community. The outcomes of the research present co-creative multi-stakeholder model and the value creation method through the whole supply chain of Thai gastronomy. The findings have been eventually incorporated into ‘gastro-diplomacy’ strategy for Thai tourism.

Keywords: community-based tourism, gastro-diplomacy, gastronomy tourism, sustainable tourism development

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3325 The Effect of Paper Based Concept Mapping on Students' Academic Achievement and Attitude in Science Education

Authors: Orhan Akınoğlu, Arif Çömek, Ersin Elmacı, Tuğba Gündoğdu

Abstract:

The concept map is known to be a powerful tool to organize the ideas and concepts of an individuals’ mind. This tool is a kind of visual map that illustrates the relationships between the concepts of a certain subject. The effect of concept mapping on cognitive and affective qualities is one of the research topics among educational researchers for last decades. We educators want to utilize it both as an instructional tool or an assessment tool in classes. For that reason, this study aimed to determine the effect of concept mapping as a learning strategy in science classes on students’ academic achievement and attitude. The research employed a randomized pre-test post-test control group design. Data collected from 60 sixth grade students participated in the study from a randomly selected primary school in Turkey. Sixth-grade classes of the school were analyzed according to students’ academic achievement, science attitude, gender, mathematics, science courses grades, and their GPAs before the implementation. Two of the classes found to be equivalent (t=0,983, p>0,05) and one of them was defined as experimental and the other one control group randomly. During a 5-weeks period, the experimental group students (N=30) used the paper-based concept mapping method while the control group students (N=30) were taught with the traditional approach according to the science and technology education curriculum for light and sound subject. Both groups were taught by the same teacher who is experienced using concept mapping in science classes. Before the implementation, the teacher explained the theory of the concept maps and showed how to create paper-based concept mapping individually to the experimental group students for two hours. Then for two following hours she asked them to create some concept maps related to their former science subjects and gave them feedback by reviewing their concept maps to be sure that they can create during the implementation. The data were collected by science achievement test, science attitude scale and personal information form. Science achievement test and science attitude scale were implemented as pre-test and post-test while personal information form was implemented just as once. The reliability coefficient of the achievement test was KR20=0,76 and Cronbach’s Alpha of the attitude scale was 0,89. SPSS statistical software was used to analyze the data. According to the results, there was a statistically significant difference between the experimental and control group for academic achievement but not for attitude. The experimental group had significantly greater gains from academic achievement test than the control group (t=0,02, p<0,05). The findings showed that the paper-and-pencil concept mapping can be used as an effective method for students’ academic achievement in science classes. The results have implications for further researches.

Keywords: concept mapping, science education, constructivism, academic achievement, science attitude

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3324 New Estimation in Autoregressive Models with Exponential White Noise by Using Reversible Jump MCMC Algorithm

Authors: Suparman Suparman

Abstract:

A white noise in autoregressive (AR) model is often assumed to be normally distributed. In application, the white noise usually do not follows a normal distribution. This paper aims to estimate a parameter of AR model that has a exponential white noise. A Bayesian method is adopted. A prior distribution of the parameter of AR model is selected and then this prior distribution is combined with a likelihood function of data to get a posterior distribution. Based on this posterior distribution, a Bayesian estimator for the parameter of AR model is estimated. Because the order of AR model is considered a parameter, this Bayesian estimator cannot be explicitly calculated. To resolve this problem, a method of reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is adopted. A result is a estimation of the parameter AR model can be simultaneously calculated.

Keywords: autoregressive (AR) model, exponential white Noise, bayesian, reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)

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3323 Stability Analysis of Green Coffee Export Markets of Ethiopia: Markov-Chain Analysis

Authors: Gabriel Woldu, Maria Sassi

Abstract:

Coffee performs a pivotal role in Ethiopia's GDP, revenue, employment, domestic demand, and export earnings. Ethiopia's coffee production and exports show high variability in the amount of production and export earnings. Despite being the continent's fifth-largest coffee producer, Ethiopia has not developed its ability to shine as a major exporter in the globe's green coffee exports. Ethiopian coffee exports were not stable and had high volume and earnings fluctuations. The main aim of this study was to analyze the dynamics of the export of coffee variation to different importing nations using a first-order Markov Chain model. 14 years of time-series data has been used to examine the direction and structural change in the export of coffee. A compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was used to determine the annual growth rate in the coffee export quantity, value, and per-unit price over the study period. The major export markets for Ethiopian coffee were Germany, Japan, and the USA, which were more stable, while countries such as France, Italy, Belgium, and Saudi Arabia were less stable and had low retention rates for Ethiopian coffee. The study, therefore, recommends that Ethiopia should again revitalize its market to France, Italy, Belgium, and Saudi Arabia, as these countries are the major coffee-consuming countries in the world to boost its export stake to the global coffee markets in the future. In order to further enhance export stability, the Ethiopian Government and other stakeholders in the coffee sector should have to work on reducing the volatility of coffee output and exports in order to improve production and quality efficiency, so that stabilize markets as well as to make the product attractive and price competitive in the importing countries.

Keywords: coffee, CAGR, Markov chain, direction of trade, Ethiopia

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3322 Development of a Framework for Assessing Public Health Risk Due to Pluvial Flooding: A Case Study of Sukhumvit, Bangkok

Authors: Pratima Pokharel

Abstract:

When sewer overflow due to rainfall in urban areas, this leads to public health risks when an individual is exposed to that contaminated floodwater. Nevertheless, it is still unclear the extent to which the infections pose a risk to public health. This study analyzed reported diarrheal cases by month and age in Bangkok, Thailand. The results showed that the cases are reported higher in the wet season than in the dry season. It was also found that in Bangkok, the probability of infection with diarrheal diseases in the wet season is higher for the age group between 15 to 44. However, the probability of infection is highest for kids under 5 years, but they are not influenced by wet weather. Further, this study introduced a vulnerability that leads to health risks from urban flooding. This study has found some vulnerability variables that contribute to health risks from flooding. Thus, for vulnerability analysis, the study has chosen two variables, economic status, and age, that contribute to health risk. Assuming that the people's economic status depends on the types of houses they are living in, the study shows the spatial distribution of economic status in the vulnerability maps. The vulnerability map result shows that people living in Sukhumvit have low vulnerability to health risks with respect to the types of houses they are living in. In addition, from age the probability of infection of diarrhea was analyzed. Moreover, a field survey was carried out to validate the vulnerability of people. It showed that health vulnerability depends on economic status, income level, and education. The result depicts that people with low income and poor living conditions are more vulnerable to health risks. Further, the study also carried out 1D Hydrodynamic Advection-Dispersion modelling with 2-year rainfall events to simulate the dispersion of fecal coliform concentration in the drainage network as well as 1D/2D Hydrodynamic model to simulate the overland flow. The 1D result represents higher concentrations for dry weather flows and a large dilution of concentration on the commencement of a rainfall event, resulting in a drop of the concentration due to runoff generated after rainfall, whereas the model produced flood depth, flood duration, and fecal coliform concentration maps, which were transferred to ArcGIS to produce hazard and risk maps. In addition, the study also simulates the 5-year and 10-year rainfall simulations to show the variation in health hazards and risks. It was found that even though the hazard coverage is very high with a 10-year rainfall events among three rainfall events, the risk was observed to be the same with a 5-year and 10-year rainfall events.

Keywords: urban flooding, risk, hazard, vulnerability, health risk, framework

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3321 Power Supply by Soil Battery and Production of Hydrogen Fuel for Greenhouse and Space Heating

Authors: Mohsen Azarmjoo, Yasaman Azarmjoo, Zahra Alikhani Koopaei

Abstract:

The increasing global population and continued growth in energy consumption underscore the need for renewable and sustainable energy sources more than ever. Soil batteries are a method for generating electrical energy by using recycled materials. Recycled materials include galvanized and copper sheets and recycled tires. Additionally, hydrogen, being a clean and efficient fuel, has the potential to replace fossil fuels. Consequently, hydrogen production from water presents a sustainable solution for energy supply. By utilizing aged materials, hydrogen production becomes more cost-effective and environmentally friendly. This article focuses on energy-deprived agricultural lands, explaining how soil batteries and hydrogen can provide the necessary energy for agricultural equipment, such as irrigation, lighting, greenhouse ventilation, and heating. The article explores the benefits of utilizing this method, emphasizing its potential to reduce environmental pollution through the use of recyclable materials. It is worth mentioning that these technologies face challenges, but their progress toward achieving zero-energy consumer standards positions them as promising future technologies for electricity generation. This article provides detailed insights into emerging technologies using a constructed case study involving soil batteries and a hydrogen fuel production device.

Keywords: electricity generation, soil batteries, tires, hydrogen, heat supply, water, aged materials, recycling, agricultural lands

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3320 The Strategic Gas Aggregator: A Key Legal Intervention in an Evolving Nigerian Natural Gas Sector

Authors: Olanrewaju Aladeitan, Obiageli Phina Anaghara-Uzor

Abstract:

Despite the abundance of natural gas deposits in Nigeria and the immense potential, this presents both for the domestic and export oriented revenue, there exists an imbalance in the preference for export as against the development and optimal utilization of natural gas for the domestic industry. Considerable amounts of gas are still being wasted by flaring in the country to this day. Although the government has set in place initiatives to harness gas at the flare and thereby reduce volumes flared, the gas producers would rather direct the gas produced to the export market whereas gas apportioned to the domestic market is often marred by the low domestic gas price which is often discouraging to the gas producers. The exported fraction of gas production no doubt yields healthy revenues for the government and an encouraging return on investment for the gas producers and for this reason export sales remain enticing and preferable to the domestic sale of gas. This export pull impacts negatively if left unchecked, on the domestic market which is in no position to match the price at the international markets. The issue of gas price remains critical to the optimal development of the domestic gas industry, in that it comprises the basis for investment decisions of the producers on the allocation of their scarce resources and to what project to channel their output in order to maximize profit. In order then to rebalance the domestic industry and streamline the market for gas, the Gas Aggregation Company of Nigeria, also known as the Strategic Aggregator was proposed under the Nigerian Gas Master Plan of 2008 and then established pursuant to the National Gas Supply and Pricing Regulations of 2008 to implement the domestic gas supply obligation which focuses on ramping-up gas volumes for domestic utilization by mandatorily requiring each gas producer to dedicate a portion of its gas production for domestic utilization before having recourse to the export market. The 2008 Regulations further stipulate penalties in the event of non-compliance. This study, in the main, assesses the adequacy of the legal framework for the Nigerian Gas Industry, given that the operational laws are structured more for oil than its gas counterpart; examine the legal basis for the Strategic Aggregator in the light of the Domestic Gas Supply and Pricing Policy 2008 and the National Domestic Gas Supply and Pricing Regulations 2008 and makes a case for a review of the pivotal role of the Aggregator in the Nigerian Gas market. In undertaking this assessment, the doctrinal research methodology was adopted. Findings from research conducted reveal the reawakening of the Federal Government to the immense potential of its gas industry as a critical sector of its economy and the need for a sustainable domestic natural gas market. A case for the review of the ownership structure of the Aggregator to comprise a balanced mix of the Federal Government, gas producers and other key stakeholders in order to ensure the effective implementation of the domestic supply obligations becomes all the more imperative.

Keywords: domestic supply obligations, natural gas, Nigerian gas sector, strategic gas aggregator

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3319 Pressure Relief in Prosthetic Sockets through Hole Implementation Using Different Materials

Authors: Gabi N. Nehme

Abstract:

Below-knee amputees commonly experience asymmetrical gait patterns. It is generally believed that ischemia is related to the formation of pressure sores due to uneven distribution of forces. Micro-vascular responses can reveal local malnutrition. Changes in local skin blood supply under various external loading conditions have been studied for a number of years. Radionuclide clearance, photo-plethysmography, trans-cutaneous oxygen tension along with other studies showed that the blood supply would be influenced by the epidermal forces, and the rate and the amount of blood supply would decrease with increased epidermal loads being shear forces or normal forces. Several cases of socket designs were investigated using Finite Element Model (FEM) and Design of Experiment (DOE) to increase flexibility and minimize the pressure at the limb/socket interface using ultra high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) and polyamide 6 (PA6) or Duraform. The pressure reliefs at designated areas where reducing thickness is involved are seen to be critical in determination of amputees’ comfort and are very important to clinical applications. Implementing a hole between the Patellar Tendon (PT) and Distal Tibia (DT) would decrease stiffness and increase prosthesis range of motion where flexibility is needed. In addition, displacement and prosthetic energy storage increased without compromising mechanical efficiency and prosthetic design integrity.

Keywords: patellar tendon, distal tibia, prosthetic socket relief areas, hole implementation

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3318 Interorganizational Relationships in the Brazilian Milk Production Chain

Authors: Marcelo T. Okano, Oduvaldo Vendrametto, Osmildo S. Santos, Marcelo E. Fernandes, Heide Landi

Abstract:

The literature on the interorganizational relationship between companies and organizations has increased in recent years, but there are still doubts about the various settings. The interorganizational networks are important in economic life, the fact facilitate the complex interdependence between transactional and cooperative organizations. A need identified in the literature is the lack of indicators to measure and identify the types of existing networks. The objective of this research is to examine the interorganizational relationships of two milk chains through indicators proposed by the theories of the four authors, characterizing them as network or not and what the benefits obtained by the chain organization. To achieve the objective of this work was carried out a survey of milk producers in two regions of the state of São Paulo. To collect the information needed for the analysis, exploratory research, qualitative nature was used. The research instrument of this work consists of a roadmap of semistructured interviews with open questions. Some of the answers were directed by the interviewer in the form of performance notes aimed at detecting the degree of importance, according to the perception of intensity to that regard. The results showed that interorganizational relationships are small and largely limited to the sale of milk or dairy cooperatives. These relationships relate only to trade relations between the owner and purchaser of milk. But when the producers are organized in associations or networks, interorganizational relationships and increase benefits for all participants in the network. The various visits and interviews in several dairy farms in the regions of São Pau-lo (indicated that the inter-relationships are small and largely limited to the sale of milk to cooperatives or dairy. These relationships refer only to trade relations between the owner and the purchaser of milk. But when the producers are organized in associations or networks, interorganizational relationships increase and bring benefits to all participants in the network.

Keywords: interorganizational networks, dairy chain, interorganizational system, São Pau-lo

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3317 Supplier Risk Management: A Multivariate Statistical Modelling and Portfolio Optimization Based Approach for Supplier Delivery Performance Development

Authors: Jiahui Yang, John Quigley, Lesley Walls

Abstract:

In this paper, the authors develop a stochastic model regarding the investment in supplier delivery performance development from a buyer’s perspective. The authors propose a multivariate model through a Multinomial-Dirichlet distribution within an Empirical Bayesian inference framework, representing both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in deliveries. A closed form solution is obtained and the lower and upper bound for both optimal investment level and expected profit under uncertainty are derived. The theoretical properties provide decision makers with useful insights regarding supplier delivery performance improvement problems where multiple delivery statuses are involved. The authors also extend the model from a single supplier investment into a supplier portfolio, using a Lagrangian method to obtain a theoretical expression for an optimal investment level and overall expected profit. The model enables a buyer to know how the marginal expected profit/investment level of each supplier changes with respect to the budget and which supplier should be invested in when additional budget is available. An application of this model is illustrated in a simulation study. Overall, the main contribution of this study is to provide an optimal investment decision making framework for supplier development, taking into account multiple delivery statuses as well as multiple projects.

Keywords: decision making, empirical bayesian, portfolio optimization, supplier development, supply chain management

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3316 Simulation of Turboexpander Potential in a City Gate Station under Variations of Feed Characteristic

Authors: Tarannom Parhizkar, Halle Bakhteeyar

Abstract:

This paper presents a feasibility assessment of an expansion system applied to the natural gas transportation process in Iran. Power can be generated from the pressure energy of natural gas along its supply chain at various pressure reduction points by using turboexpanders. This technology is being applied in different countries around the world. The system consists of a turboexpander reducing the natural gas pressure and providing mechanical energy to drive electric generator. Moreover, gas pre-heating, required to prevent hydrate formation, is performed upstream of expansion stage using burner. The city gate station (CGS) has a nominal flow rate in range of 45000 to 270000 cubic meters per hour and a pressure reduction from maximum 62 bar at the upstream to 6 bar. Due to variable feed pressure and temperature in this station sensitivity analysis of generated electricity and required heat is performed. Results show that plant gain is more sensible to pressure variation than temperature changes. Furthermore, using turboexpander to reduce the pressure result in an electrical generation of 2757 to 17574 kW with the value of approximately 4 million US$ per year. Moreover, the required heat range to prevent a hydrate formation is almost 2189 to 14157 kW. To provide this heat, a burner is used with a maximum annual cost of 268,640 $ burner fuel. Therefore, the actual annual benefit of proposed plant modification is approximately over 6,5 million US$.

Keywords: feasibility study, simulation, turboexpander, feed characteristic

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3315 Another Justice: Litigation Masters in Chinese Legal Story

Authors: Lung-Lung Hu

Abstract:

Ronald Dworkin offered a legal theory of ‘chain enterprise’ that all the judges in legal history altogether create a ‘law’ aiming a specific purpose. Those judges are like co-writers of a chain-story who not only create freely but also are constrained by the story made by the judges before them. The law created by Chinese traditional judges is another case, they, compared with the judges mentioned by Ronald Dworkin, have relatively narrower space of making a legal sentence according to their own discretions because the statutes in Chinese traditional law at the very beginning have been designed as panel code that leaves small room to judge’s discretion. Furthermore, because law is a representative of the authority of the government, i.e. the emperor, any misjudges and misuses deviated from the law will be considered as a challenge to the supreme power. However, different from judges as the defenders of law, Chinese litigation masters who want to win legal cases have to be offenders challenging the verdict that does not favor his or his client’s interest. Besides, litigation master as an illegal or non-authorized profession does not belong to any legal system, therefore, they are relatively freer to ‘create’ the law. According to Stanley Fish’s articles that question Ronald Dworkin and Owen Fiss’ ideas about law, he construes that, since law is made of language, law is open to interpretations that cannot be constrained by any rules or any particular legal purposes. Stanley Fish’s idea can also be applied on the analysis about the stories of Chinese litigation masters in traditional Chinese literature. These Chinese litigation masters’ legal opinions in the so-called chain enterprise are like an unexpected episode that tries to revise the fixed story told by law. Although they are not welcome to the officials and also to the society, their existence is still a phenomenon representing another version of justice different from the official’s and can be seen as a de-structural power to the government. Hence, in this present paper the language and strategy applied by Chinese litigation masters in Chinese legal stories will be analysed to see how they refute made legal judgments and challenge the official standard of justice.

Keywords: Chinese legal stories, interdisciplinary, litigation master, post-structuralism

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3314 Forage Production Area Development in Bangkok Metropolitan Region

Authors: Thipayasothorn Pastraporn, Phonpakdee Rachadakorn, Ponpo Sopar

Abstract:

Forage production area development in Bangkok Metropolitan Region with an Agriculture in the city concept. Food chain of city man reduced distance of the food, so the food chain was a good attempt to connect the city’s product with the changes in each area of city. This paper purposed (I) to study the problems of using forage production area development in Bangkok Metropolitan Region, (II) to propose guidelines of forage production area development in Bangkok Metropolitan Region. We collected the data by questionnaire which we got from the agriculture, marketing and city plan sector in Bangkok Metropolitan Region. We analyzed the questionnaire in the way of relationship and guidelines of forage production area development in Bangkok Metropolitan Region. Results from the analyses are that the role of forage area productive plan in Bangkok Metropolitan Region is important to the cities for adapting in changing way of the food transmission. It also enhanced benefits using from cities fringe. Moreover, it managed watercourse and reduced energy consumption in order to sustainable distribute the food into the cities. .

Keywords: city plan, forage production area, urban development, Bangkok Metropolitan Region

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3313 Accessibility of Institutional Credit and Its Impact on Agricultural Output: A Case Study

Authors: Showkat Ahmad Bhat, M. S. Bhatt

Abstract:

The study evaluates the ex-post impact of institutional credit on agricultural output. It first examines the key factors that influence the accessibility of institutional credit by farm households. For quantitative analysis both program participant and non-participant respondents were drawn and cross-sectional survey data were collected from 412 households in Pulwama District of Jammu & Kashmir (India). Propensity Score Matching Method was employed to analyze the impact of the institutional credit on agricultural output. Results show that institutional credit has a positive and significant impact on the agricultural output measured in terms of farm income and crop productivity. To estimate the accessibility of credit, an examination of both demand side and supply side factors were carried out. The demand for credit was measured with respect to respondents who applied for credit. Supply side credit allocation measured in terms of the proportion of ‘credit amount’ farmers obtained. Logit and Two-limit Tobit Regression Models were used to investigate the determinants that influence the accessibility of formal credit for Demand for and supply of credit respectively. The estimated results suggested that the demand for credit is positively and significantly affected by the factors such as: age of the household head, formal education, membership, cash crop grown, farm size and saving account. All the variables were found significantly increasing the household’s likelihood to demand for and supply of credit from banks. However, the impact of these factors varies considerably across the credit markets. Factors which were found negatively and significantly influencing the accessibility of credit were: ‘square of the age’, household assets and rate of interest. The credit constraints analysis suggested that square of the age; household assets and rate of interest were the three most important factors that increased the probability of being constrained. The study finally discusses these results in detail and draws some recommendations.

Keywords: institutional credit, agriculture, propensity score matching logit model, Tobit model

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3312 A Model for Helicopter Routing Problem

Authors: Aydin Sipahioglu, Gokhan Celik

Abstract:

Helicopter routing problem (HRP) is finding good tours for helicopter so as to pick up and deliver personnel or material among specified nodes, mutually. It can be encountered in case of being lots of supply and demand points for different commodities and requiring delivering commodities with helicopter. For instance, to deliver personnel or material from shore to oil rig is a good example. In fact, HRP is a branch of vehicle routing problem with pickup and delivery (VRPPD). However, it has additional constraints such that fuel capacity, performance of helicopter in different altitude and temperature, and the number of maximum takeoff and landing allowed. This kind of pickup and delivery problems can be classified into 3 groups, basically. 1-1 (one to one), M-M (many to many) and 1-M-1 (one to many to one). 1-1 means each commodity has only one supply and one demand point. M-M means there can be more than one supply and demand points for each kind of commodity. 1-M-1 means commodities at depot are delivered to demand points and commodities at customers are delivered to depot. In this case helicopter takes off from its own base, complete its tour and return to its own base. In this study, we define 1-M-M-1 type HRP. That means helicopter takes off from its home base, deliver commodities among the nodes as well as between depot and customers and return to its home base. These problems have NP-hard nature. Therefore, obtaining a good solution in a reasonable time is not easy. In this study, a model is offered for 1-M-M-1 type HRP. It is shown on small scale test instances that the model can find the optimal solution.

Keywords: helicopter routing problem, vehicle routing with pickup and delivery, integer programming

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3311 The Reasons for Food Losses and Waste and the Trends of Their Management in Basic Vegetal Production in Poland

Authors: Krystian Szczepanski, Sylwia Łaba

Abstract:

Production of fruit and vegetables, food cereals or oilseeds affects the natural environment via intake of nutrients being contained in the soil, use of the resources of water, fertilizers and food protection products, and energy. The limitation of the mentioned effects requires the introduction of techniques and methods for cultivation being friendly to the environment and counteracting losses and waste of agricultural raw materials as well as the appropriate management of food waste in every stage of the agri-food supply chain. The link to basic production includes obtaining a vegetal raw material and its storage in agricultural farm and transport to a collecting point. When the plants are ready to be harvested is the initial point; the stage before harvesting is not considered in the system of measuring and monitoring the food losses. The moment at which the raw material enters the stage of processing, i.e., its receipt at the gate of the processing plant, is considered as a final point of basic production. According to the Regulation (EC) No 178/2002 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 28 January 2002, Art. 2, “food” means any substance or product, intended to be, or reasonably expected to be consumed by humans. For the needs of the studies and their analysis, it was determined when raw material is considered as food – the plants (fruit, vegetables, cereals, oilseeds), after being harvested, arrive at storehouses. The aim of the studies was to determine the reasons for loss generation and to analyze the directions of their management in basic vegetal production in Poland in the years 2017 and 2018. The studies on food losses and waste in basic vegetal production were carried out in three sectors – fruit and vegetables, cereals and oilseeds. The studies of the basic production were conducted during the period of March-May 2019 at the territory of the whole country on a representative trail of 250 farms in each sector. The surveys were carried out using the questionnaires by the PAP method; the pollsters conducted the direct questionnaire interviews. From the conducted studies, it is followed that in 19% of the examined farms, any losses were not recorded during preparation, loading, and transport of the raw material to the manufacturing plant. In the farms, where the losses were indicated, the main reason in production of fruit and vegetables was rotting and it constituted more than 20% of the reported reasons, while in the case of cereals and oilseeds’ production, the respondents identified damages, moisture and pests as the most frequent reason. The losses and waste, generated in vegetal production as well as in processing and trade of fruit and vegetables, or cereal products should be appropriately managed or recovered. The respondents indicated composting (more than 60%) as the main direction of waste management in all categories. Animal feed and landfill sites were the other indicated directions of management. Prevention and minimization of loss generation are important in every stage of production as well as in basic production. When possessing the knowledge on the reasons for loss generation, we may introduce the preventive measures, mainly connected with the appropriate conditions and methods of the storage. Production of fruit and vegetables, food cereals or oilseeds affects the natural environment via intake of nutrients being contained in the soil, use of the resources of water, fertilizers and food protection products, and energy. The limitation of the mentioned effects requires the introduction of techniques and methods for cultivation being friendly to the environment and counteracting losses and waste of agricultural raw materials as well as the appropriate management of food waste in every stage of the agri-food supply chain. The link to basic production includes obtaining a vegetal raw material and its storage in agricultural farm and transport to a collecting point. The starting point is when the plants are ready to be harvested; the stage before harvesting is not considered in the system of measuring and monitoring the food losses. The successive stage is the transport of the collected crops to the collecting point or its storage and transport. The moment, at which the raw material enters the stage of processing, i.e. its receipt at the gate of the processing plant, is considered as a final point of basic production. Processing is understood as the change of the raw material into food products. According to the Regulation (EC) No 178/2002 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 28 January 2002, Art. 2, “food” means any substance or product, intended to be, or reasonably expected to be consumed by humans. It was determined (for the needs of the present studies) when raw material is considered as a food; it is the moment when the plants (fruit, vegetables, cereals, oilseeds), after being harvested, arrive at storehouses. The aim of the studies was to determine the reasons for loss generation and to analyze the directions of their management in basic vegetal production in Poland in the years 2017 and 2018. The studies on food losses and waste in basic vegetal production were carried out in three sectors – fruit and vegetables, cereals and oilseeds. The studies of the basic production were conducted during the period of March-May 2019 at the territory of the whole country on a representative trail of 250 farms in each sector. The surveys were carried out using the questionnaires by the PAPI (Paper & Pen Personal Interview) method; the pollsters conducted the direct questionnaire interviews. From the conducted studies, it is followed that in 19% of the examined farms, any losses were not recorded during preparation, loading, and transport of the raw material to the manufacturing plant. In the farms, where the losses were indicated, the main reason in production of fruit and vegetables was rotting and it constituted more than 20% of the reported reasons, while in the case of cereals and oilseeds’ production, the respondents identified damages, moisture, and pests as the most frequent reason. The losses and waste, generated in vegetal production as well as in processing and trade of fruit and vegetables, or cereal products should be appropriately managed or recovered. The respondents indicated composting (more than 60%) as the main direction of waste management in all categories. Animal feed and landfill sites were the other indicated directions of management. Prevention and minimization of loss generation are important in every stage of production as well as in basic production. When possessing the knowledge on the reasons for loss generation, we may introduce the preventive measures, mainly connected with the appropriate conditions and methods of the storage. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The article was prepared within the project: "Development of a waste food monitoring system and an effective program to rationalize losses and reduce food waste", acronym PROM implemented under the STRATEGIC SCIENTIFIC AND LEARNING PROGRAM - GOSPOSTRATEG financed by the National Center for Research and Development in accordance with the provisions of Gospostrateg1 / 385753/1/2018

Keywords: food losses, food waste, PAP method, vegetal production

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3310 Optimizing Agricultural Packaging in Fiji: Strategic Barrier Analysis Using Interpretive Structural Modeling and Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification

Authors: R. Ananthanarayanan, S. B. Nakula, D. R. Seenivasagam, J. Naua, B. Sharma

Abstract:

Product packaging is a critical component of production, trade, and marketing, playing numerous vital roles that often go unnoticed by consumers. Packaging is essential for maintaining the shelf life, quality assurance, and safety of both manufactured and agricultural products. For example, harvested produce or processed foods can quickly lose quality and freshness, making secure packaging crucial for preservation and safety throughout the food supply chain. In Fiji, agricultural packaging has primarily been managed by local companies for international trade, with gradual advancements in these practices. To further enhance the industry’s performance, this study examines the challenges and constraints hindering the optimization of agricultural packaging practices in Fiji. The study utilizes Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) tools, specifically Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) and Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification (MICMAC). ISM analyzes the hierarchical structure of barriers, categorizing them from the least to the most influential, while MICMAC classifies barriers based on their driving and dependence power. This approach helps identify the interrelationships between barriers, providing valuable insights for policymakers and decision-makers to propose innovative solutions for sustainable development in the agricultural packaging sector, ultimately shaping the future of packaging practices in Fiji.

Keywords: agricultural packaging, barriers, ISM, MICMAC

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3309 Assessment of Sustainable Sanitation Systems: Urban Slums

Authors: Ali Hamza, Bertug Akintug

Abstract:

Having an appropriate plan of sanitation systems is one of the critical issues for global urban slums. Poor sanitation systems in urban slums outcomes an enhanced vulnerability of severe diseases, low hygiene and environmental risks within our environment. Mentioning human excreta being one of the most highly risked pollutants among all the other major contributors of sanitation pollutants is increasing public health risks and amounts of pollution loads within the slum environment. Higher population growth, urge of urbanization and illegal status of urban slums makes it impossible to increase the level of performance of sanitation systems in urban slums. According to Sustainable Sanitation Alliance, design parameters for sanitation systems were set up to ensure sustainable environment. This paper reviews the characteristics of human excreta at present, treatment technologies, and procedures of processes that can be adopted feasibly in the urban slums. Keeping these factors as our significant concern of study, assessment of sustainable sanitation systems is done using sanitation chain concept in accordance to the pre-determined sustainability indicators and criteria which reflect the potential and feasible application of waterless sanitation systems bringing sustainable sanitation systems in urban slums.

Keywords: human excreta, sanitation chain, sustainable sanitation systems, urban slums

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3308 Post Covid-19 Landscape of Global Pharmaceutical Industry

Authors: Abu Zafor Sadek

Abstract:

Pharmaceuticals were one of the least impacted business sectors during the corona pandemic as they are the center point of Covid-19 fight. Emergency use authorization, unproven indication of some commonly used drugs, self-medication, research and production capacity of an individual country, capacity of producing vaccine by many countries, Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) related uncertainty, information gap among manufacturer, practitioners and user, export restriction, duration of lock-down, lack of harmony in transportation, disruption in the regulatory approval process, sudden increased demand of hospital items and protective equipment, panic buying, difficulties in in-person product promotion, e-prescription, geo-politics and associated issues added a new dimension to this industry. Although the industry maintains a reasonable growth throughout Covid-19 days; however, it has been characterized by both long- and short-term effects. Short-term effects have already been visible to so many countries, especially those who are import-dependent and have limited research capacity. On the other hand, it will take a few more time to see the long-term effects. Nevertheless, supply chain disruption, changes in strategic planning, new communication model, squeezing of job opportunity, rapid digitalization are the major short-term effects, whereas long-term effects include a shift towards self-sufficiency, growth pattern changes of certain products, special attention towards clinical studies, automation in operations, the increased arena of ethical issues etc. Therefore, this qualitative and exploratory study identifies the post-covid-19 landscape of the global pharmaceutical industry.

Keywords: covid-19, pharmaceutical, businees, landscape

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3307 Modelling the Effect of Biomass Appropriation for Human Use on Global Biodiversity

Authors: Karina Reiter, Stefan Dullinger, Christoph Plutzar, Dietmar Moser

Abstract:

Due to population growth and changing patterns of production and consumption, the demand for natural resources and, as a result, the pressure on Earth’s ecosystems are growing. Biodiversity mapping can be a useful tool for assessing species endangerment or detecting hotspots of extinction risks. This paper explores the benefits of using the change in trophic energy flows as a consequence of the human alteration of the biosphere in biodiversity mapping. To this end, multiple linear regression models were developed to explain species richness in areas where there is no human influence (i.e. wilderness) for three taxonomic groups (birds, mammals, amphibians). The models were then applied to predict (I) potential global species richness using potential natural vegetation (NPPpot) and (II) global ‘actual’ species richness after biomass appropriation using NPP remaining in ecosystems after harvest (NPPeco). By calculating the difference between predicted potential and predicted actual species numbers, maps of estimated species richness loss were generated. Results show that biomass appropriation for human use can indeed be linked to biodiversity loss. Areas for which the models predicted high species loss coincide with areas where species endangerment and extinctions are recorded to be particularly high by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN). Furthermore, the analysis revealed that while the species distribution maps of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species used for this research can determine hotspots of biodiversity loss in large parts of the world, the classification system for threatened and extinct species needs to be revised to better reflect local risks of extinction.

Keywords: biodiversity loss, biomass harvest, human appropriation of net primary production, species richness

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3306 Lactic Acid Solution and Aromatic Vinegar Nebulization to Improve Hunted Wild Boar Carcass Hygiene at Game-Handling Establishment: Preliminary Results

Authors: Rossana Roila, Raffaella Branciari, Lorenzo Cardinali, David Ranucci

Abstract:

The wild boar (Sus scrofa) population has strongly increased across Europe in the last decades, also causing severe fauna management issues. In central Italy, wild boar is the main hunted wild game species, with approximately 40,000 animals killed per year only in the Umbria region. The meat of the game is characterized by high-quality nutritional value as well as peculiar taste and aroma, largely appreciated by consumers. This type of meat and products thereof can meet the current consumers’ demand for higher quality foodstuff, not only from a nutritional and sensory point of view but also in relation to environmental sustainability, the non-use of chemicals, and animal welfare. The game meat production chain is characterized by some gaps from a hygienic point of view: the harvest process is usually conducted in a wild environment where animals can be more easily contaminated during hunting and subsequent practices. The definition and implementation of a certified and controlled supply chain could ensure quality, traceability and safety for the final consumer and therefore promote game meat products. According to European legislation in some animal species, such as bovine, the use of weak acid solutions for carcass decontamination is envisaged in order to ensure the maintenance of optimal hygienic characteristics. A preliminary study was carried out to evaluate the applicability of similar strategies to control the hygienic level of wild boar carcasses. The carcasses, harvested according to the selective method and processed into the game-handling establishment, were treated by nebulization with two different solutions: a 2% food-grade lactic acid solution and aromatic vinegar. Swab samples were performed before treatment and in different moments after-treatment of the carcasses surfaces and subsequently tested for Total Aerobic Mesophilic Load, Total Aerobic Psychrophilic Load, Enterobacteriaceae, Staphylococcus spp. and lactic acid bacteria. The results obtained for the targeted microbial populations showed a positive effect of the application of the lactic acid solution on all the populations investigated, while aromatic vinegar showed a lower effect on bacterial growth. This study could lay the foundations for the optimization of the use of a lactic acid solution to treat wild boar carcasses aiming to guarantee good hygienic level and safety of meat.

Keywords: game meat, food safety, process hygiene criteria, microbial population, microbial growth, food control

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3305 Structural Molecular Dynamics Modelling of FH2 Domain of Formin DAAM

Authors: Rauan Sakenov, Peter Bukovics, Peter Gaszler, Veronika Tokacs-Kollar, Beata Bugyi

Abstract:

FH2 (formin homology-2) domains of several proteins, collectively known as formins, including DAAM, DAAM1 and mDia1, promote G-actin nucleation and elongation. FH2 domains of these formins exist as oligomers. Chain dimerization by ring structure formation serves as a structural basis for actin polymerization function of FH2 domain. Proper single chain configuration and specific interactions between its various regions are necessary for individual chains to form a dimer functional in G-actin nucleation and elongation. FH1 and WH2 domain-containing formins were shown to behave as intrinsically disordered proteins. Thus, the aim of this research was to study structural dynamics of FH2 domain of DAAM. To investigate structural features of FH2 domain of DAAM, molecular dynamics simulation of chain A of FH2 domain of DAAM solvated in water box in 50 mM NaCl was conducted at temperatures from 293.15 to 353.15K, with VMD 1.9.2, NAMD 2.14 and Amber Tools 21 using 2z6e and 1v9d PDB structures of DAAM was obtained on I-TASSER webserver. Calcium and ATP bound G-actin 3hbt PDB structure was used as a reference protein with well-described structural dynamics of denaturation. Topology and parameter information of CHARMM 2012 additive all-atom force fields for proteins, carbohydrate derivatives, water and ions were used in NAMD 2.14 and ff19SB force field for proteins in Amber Tools 21. The systems were energy minimized for the first 1000 steps, equilibrated and produced in NPT ensemble for 1ns using stochastic Langevin dynamics and the particle mesh Ewald method. Our root-mean square deviation (RMSD) analysis of molecular dynamics of chain A of FH2 domains of DAAM revealed similar insignificant changes of total molecular average RMSD values of FH2 domain of these formins at temperatures from 293.15 to 353.15K. In contrast, total molecular average RMSD values of G-actin showed considerable increase at 328K, which corresponds to the denaturation of G-actin molecule at this temperature and its transition from native, ordered, to denatured, disordered, state which is well-described in the literature. RMSD values of lasso and tail regions of chain A of FH2 domain of DAAM exhibited higher than total molecular average RMSD at temperatures from 293.15 to 353.15K. These regions are functional in intra- and interchain interactions and contain highly conserved tryptophan residues of lasso region, highly conserved GNYMN sequence of post region and amino acids of the shell of hydrophobic pocket of the salt bridge between Arg171 and Asp321, which are important for structural stability and ordered state of FH2 domain of DAAM and its functions in FH2 domain dimerization. In conclusion, higher than total molecular average RMSD values of lasso and post regions of chain A of FH2 domain of DAAM may explain disordered state of FH2 domain of DAAM at temperatures from 293.15 to 353.15K. Finally, absence of marked transition, in terms of significant changes in average molecular RMSD values between native and denatured states of FH2 domain of DAAM at temperatures from 293.15 to 353.15K, can make it possible to attribute these formins to the group of intrinsically disordered proteins rather than to the group of intrinsically ordered proteins such as G-actin.

Keywords: FH2 domain, DAAM, formins, molecular modelling, computational biophysics

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3304 Sedimentation and Morphology of the Kura River-Deltaic System in the Southern Caucasus under Anthropogenic and Sea-Level Controls

Authors: Elmira Aliyeva, Dadash Huseynov, Robert Hoogendoorn, Salomon Kroonenberg

Abstract:

The Kura River is the major water artery in the Southern Caucasus; it is a third river in the Caspian Sea basin in terms of length and size of the catchment area, the second in terms of the water budget, and the first in the volume of sediment load. Understanding of major controls on the Kura fluvial- deltaic system is valuable for efficient management of the highly populated river basin and coastal zone. We have studied grain size of sediments accumulated in the river channels and delta and dated by 210Pb method, astrophotographs, old topographic and geological maps, and archive data. At present time sediments are supplied by the Kura River to the Caspian Sea through three distributary channels oriented north-east, south-east, and south-west. The river is dominated by the suspended load - mud, silt, very fine sand. Coarse sediments are accumulated in the distributaries, levees, point bar, and delta front. The annual suspended sediment budget in the time period 1934-1952 before construction of the Mingechavir water reservoir in 1953 in the Kura River midstream area was 36 mln.t/yr. From 1953 to 1964, the suspended load has dropped to 12 mln.t/yr. After regulation of the Kura River discharge the volume of suspended load transported via north-eastern channel reduced from 35% of the total sediment amount to 4%, and through the main south-eastern channel increased from 65% to 96% with further fall to 56% due to creation of new south-western channel in 1964. Between 1967-1976 the annual sediment budget of the Kura River reached 22,5 mln. t/yr. From 1977 to 1986, the sediment load carried by the Kura River dropped to 17,6 mln.t/yr. The historical data show that between 1860 and 1907, during relatively stable Caspian Sea level two channels - N and SE, appear to have distributed an equal amount of sediments as seen from the bilateral geometry of the delta. In the time period 1907-1929, two new channels - E and NE, appeared. The growth of three delta lobes - N, NE, and SE, and rapid progradation of the delta has occurred on the background of the Caspian Sea level rise as a result of very high sediment supply. Since 1929 the Caspian Sea level decline was followed by the progradation of the delta occurring along the SE channel. The eastern and northern channels have been silted up. The slow rate of progradation at its initial stage was caused by the artificial reduction in the sediment budget. However, the continuous sea-level fall has brought to this river bed gradient increase, high erosional rate, increase in the sediment supply, and more rapid progradation. During the subsequent sea-level rise after 1977 accompanied by the decrease in the sediment budget, the southern part of the delta has turned into a complex of small, shallow channels oriented to the south. The data demonstrate that behaviour of the Kura fluvial – deltaic system and variations in the sediment budget besides anthropogenic regulation are strongly governed by the Caspian Sea level very rapid changes.

Keywords: anthropogenic control on sediment budget, Caspian sea-level variations, Kura river sediment load, morphology of the Kura river delta, sedimentation in the Kura river delta

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3303 Feature Analysis of Predictive Maintenance Models

Authors: Zhaoan Wang

Abstract:

Research in predictive maintenance modeling has improved in the recent years to predict failures and needed maintenance with high accuracy, saving cost and improving manufacturing efficiency. However, classic prediction models provide little valuable insight towards the most important features contributing to the failure. By analyzing and quantifying feature importance in predictive maintenance models, cost saving can be optimized based on business goals. First, multiple classifiers are evaluated with cross-validation to predict the multi-class of failures. Second, predictive performance with features provided by different feature selection algorithms are further analyzed. Third, features selected by different algorithms are ranked and combined based on their predictive power. Finally, linear explainer SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) is applied to interpret classifier behavior and provide further insight towards the specific roles of features in both local predictions and global model behavior. The results of the experiments suggest that certain features play dominant roles in predictive models while others have significantly less impact on the overall performance. Moreover, for multi-class prediction of machine failures, the most important features vary with type of machine failures. The results may lead to improved productivity and cost saving by prioritizing sensor deployment, data collection, and data processing of more important features over less importance features.

Keywords: automated supply chain, intelligent manufacturing, predictive maintenance machine learning, feature engineering, model interpretation

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3302 Functional to Business Process Orientation in Business Schools

Authors: Sunitha Thappa

Abstract:

Business environment is a set of complex interdependent dimensions that corporates have to always be vigil in identifying the influential waves. Over the year business environment has evolved into a basket of uncertainties. Every organization strives to counter this dynamic nature of business environment by recurrently evaluating the primary and support activities of its value chain. This has led to companies redesigning their business models, reinvent business processes and operating procedure on unremitting basis. A few specific issues that are placed before the present day managers are breaking down the functional interpretation of any challenge that organizations confronts, reduction in organizational hierarchy and tackling the components of the value chain to retain their competitive advantage. It is how effectively managers detect the changes and swiftly reorient themselves to these changes that define their success or failure. Given the complexity of decision making in this dynamic environment, two important question placed before the B-schools of today. Firstly, are they grooming and nurturing managerial talent proficient enough to thrive in this multifaceted business environment? Secondly, are the management graduates walking through their portals, able to view challenges from a cross-functional perspective with emphasis to customer and process rather than hierarchy and functions. This paper focuses on the need for a process oriented approach to management education.

Keywords: management education, pedagogy, functional, process

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3301 A Longitudinal Study to Develop an Emotional Design Framework for Physical Activity Interventions

Authors: Stephanie Hewitt, Leila Sheldrick, Weston Baxter

Abstract:

Multidisciplinary by nature, design research brings together varying research fields to answer globally significant questions. Emotional design, a field which helps us create products that influence people’s behaviour, and sports psychology, containing a growing field of recent research which focuses on understanding the emotions experienced through sport and the effects this has on our health and wellbeing, are two research fields that can be combined through design research to tackle global physical inactivity. The combination of these research fields presents an opportunity to build new tools and methods that could help designers create new interventions to promote positive behaviour change in the form of physical activity uptake, ultimately improving people’s health and wellbeing. This paper proposes a framework that can be used to develop new products and services that focus on not only improving the uptake and upkeep of physical activity but also helping people have a healthy emotional relationship with exercise. To develop this framework, a set of comprehensive maps exploring the relationship between human emotions and physical activity across a range of factors was created. These maps were then further evolved through in-depth interviews, which analysed the reasons behind the emotions felt, how physical activity fits into the daily routine and how important regular exercise is to people. Finally, to progress these findings into a design framework, a longitudinal study was carried out to explore further the emotional relationship people of varying sporting abilities have overtime with physical activity. This framework can be used to design more successful interventions that help people to not only become more active initially but implement long term changes to ensure they stay active.

Keywords: design research, emotional design, emotions, intervention, physical activity, sport psychology

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3300 Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Economic Performance of Manufacturing Sector: Evidence from Nigeria

Authors: Ifeoma Patricia Osamor, Ayotunde Qudus Saka, Godwin Omoregbee, Hikmat Oreoluwalomo Omolaja

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Persistent fall in the value of Nigeria's currency compared to other foreign currencies, constant fluctuations in the exchange rate, and an increase in the price of goods and services necessitated the examination of the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the economic performance of the manufacturing sector in Nigeria. An ex-post facto research design was adopted. Manufacturing gross domestic product (MGDP) was proxied for performance; Naira/Dollar exchange rate (NDE), Naira/Pounds exchange rate (NPE), Foreign exchange supply (FES) were used for exchange rate fluctuations; and inflation rate (INF) was a control variable. Data were collected from CBN Statistical Bulletin (2020) also World Development Indicators of the World Bank, while data collected were analysed using descriptive analysis, unit root, bounds cointegration test, and ARDL. Findings showed that changes in Naira/Dollar exchange rate (NDE) and Naira/Pound Sterling exchange rate negatively but significantly impact the economic performance of the manufacturing sector, while foreign exchange supply leads to an insignificant positive effect on the economic performance of the manufacturing. The study concludes that exchange rate fluctuations negatively impact the performance of the manufacturing sector in Nigeria and, therefore, recommends that government should encourage export diversification through agriculture, agro-investment, and agro-allied industries that would boost export in order to improve the value of the Naira, thereby stabilizing the exchange rate.

Keywords: exchange rate, economic performance, gross domestic product, inflation rate, foreign exchange supply

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3299 Using Time Series NDVI to Model Land Cover Change: A Case Study in the Berg River Catchment Area, Western Cape, South Africa

Authors: Adesuyi Ayodeji Steve, Zahn Munch

Abstract:

This study investigates the use of MODIS NDVI to identify agricultural land cover change areas on an annual time step (2007 - 2012) and characterize the trend in the study area. An ISODATA classification was performed on the MODIS imagery to select only the agricultural class producing 3 class groups namely: agriculture, agriculture/semi-natural, and semi-natural. NDVI signatures were created for the time series to identify areas dominated by cereals and vineyards with the aid of ancillary, pictometry and field sample data. The NDVI signature curve and training samples aided in creating a decision tree model in WEKA 3.6.9. From the training samples two classification models were built in WEKA using decision tree classifier (J48) algorithm; Model 1 included ISODATA classification and Model 2 without, both having accuracies of 90.7% and 88.3% respectively. The two models were used to classify the whole study area, thus producing two land cover maps with Model 1 and 2 having classification accuracies of 77% and 80% respectively. Model 2 was used to create change detection maps for all the other years. Subtle changes and areas of consistency (unchanged) were observed in the agricultural classes and crop practices over the years as predicted by the land cover classification. 41% of the catchment comprises of cereals with 35% possibly following a crop rotation system. Vineyard largely remained constant over the years, with some conversion to vineyard (1%) from other land cover classes. Some of the changes might be as a result of misclassification and crop rotation system.

Keywords: change detection, land cover, modis, NDVI

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