Search results for: complement of probability
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1475

Search results for: complement of probability

485 Design of Demand Pacemaker Using an Embedded Controller

Authors: C. Bala Prashanth Reddy, B. Abhinay, C. Sreekar, D. V. Shobhana Priscilla

Abstract:

The project aims in designing an emergency pacemaker which is capable of giving shocks to a human heart which has stopped working suddenly. A pacemaker is a machine commonly used by cardiologists. This machine is used in order to shock a human’s heart back into usage. The way the heart works is that there are small cells called pacemakers sending electrical pulses to cardiac muscles that tell the heart when to pump blood. When these electrical pulses stop, the heart stops beating. When this happens, a pacemaker is used to shock the heart muscles and the pacemakers back into action. The way this is achieved is by rubbing the two panels of the pacemaker together to create an adequate electrical current, and then the heart gets back to the normal state. The project aims in designing a system which is capable of continuously displaying the heart beat and blood pressure of a person on LCD. The concerned doctor gets the heart beat and also the blood pressure details continuously through the GSM Modem in the form of SMS alerts. In case of abnormal condition, the doctor sends message format regarding the amount of electric shock needed. Automatically the microcontroller gives the input to the pacemaker which in turn gives the shock to the patient. Heart beat monitor and display system is a portable and a best replacement for the old model stethoscope which is less efficient. The heart beat rate is calculated manually using stethoscope where the probability of error is high because the heart beat rate lies in the range of 70 to 90 per minute whose occurrence is less than 1 sec, so this device can be considered as a very good alternative instead of a stethoscope.

Keywords: missing R wave, PWM, demand pacemaker, heart

Procedia PDF Downloads 455
484 Diagnostic Value of Different Noninvasive Criteria of Latent Myocarditis in Comparison with Myocardial Biopsy

Authors: Olga Blagova, Yuliya Osipova, Evgeniya Kogan, Alexander Nedostup

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Purpose: to quantify the value of various clinical, laboratory and instrumental signs in the diagnosis of myocarditis in comparison with morphological studies of the myocardium. Methods: in 100 patients (65 men, 44.7±12.5 years) with «idiopathic» arrhythmias (n = 20) and dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM, n = 80) were performed 71 endomyocardial biopsy (EMB), 13 intraoperative biopsy, 5 study of explanted hearts, 11 autopsy with virus investigation (real-time PCR) of the blood and myocardium. Anti-heart antibodies (AHA) were also measured as well as cardiac CT (n = 45), MRI (n = 25), coronary angiography (n = 47). The comparison group included of 50 patients (25 men, 53.7±11.7 years) with non-inflammatory heart diseases who underwent open heart surgery. Results. Active/borderline myocarditis was diagnosed in 76.0% of the study group and in 21.6% of patients of the comparison group (p < 0.001). The myocardial viral genome was observed more frequently in patients of comparison group than in study group (group (65.0% and 40.2%; p < 0.01. Evaluated the diagnostic value of noninvasive markers of myocarditis. The panel of anti-heart antibodies had the greatest importance to identify myocarditis: sensitivity was 81.5%, positive and negative predictive value was 75.0 and 60.5%. It is defined diagnostic value of non-invasive markers of myocarditis and diagnostic algorithm providing an individual assessment of the likelihood of myocarditis is developed. Conclusion. The greatest significance in the diagnosis of latent myocarditis in patients with 'idiopathic' arrhythmias and DCM have AHA. The use of complex of noninvasive criteria allows estimate the probability of myocarditis and determine the indications for EMB.

Keywords: myocarditis, "idiopathic" arrhythmias, dilated cardiomyopathy, endomyocardial biopsy, viral genome, anti-heart antibodies

Procedia PDF Downloads 160
483 The Long-Term Impact of Health Conditions on Social Mobility Outcomes: A Modelling Study

Authors: Lise Retat, Maria Carmen Huerta, Laura Webber, Franco Sassi

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Background: Intra-generational social mobility (ISM) can be defined as the extent to which individuals change their socio-economic position over a period of time or during their entire life course. The relationship between poor health and ISM is established. Therefore, quantifying the impact that potential health policies have on ISM now and into the future would provide evidence for how social inequality could be reduced. This paper takes the condition of overweight and obesity as an example and estimates the mean earning change per individual if the UK were to introduce policies to effectively reduce overweight and obesity. Methods: The HealthLumen individual-based model was used to estimate the impact of obesity on social mobility measures, such as earnings, occupation, and wealth. The HL tool models each individual's probability of experiencing downward ISM as a result of their overweight and obesity status. For example, one outcome of interest was the cumulative mean earning per person of implementing a policy which would reduce adult overweight and obesity by 1% each year between 2020 and 2030 in the UK. Results: Preliminary analysis showed that by reducing adult overweight and obesity by 1% each year between 2020 and 2030, the cumulative additional mean earnings would be ~1,000 Euro per adult by 2030. Additional analysis will include other social mobility indicators. Conclusions: These projections are important for illustrating the role of health in social mobility and for providing evidence for how health policy can make a difference to social mobility outcomes and, in turn, help to reduce inequality.

Keywords: modelling, social mobility, obesity, health

Procedia PDF Downloads 109
482 The Confiscation of Ill-Gotten Gains in Pollution: The Taiwan Experience and the Interaction between Economic Analysis of Law and Environmental Economics Perspectives

Authors: Chiang-Lead Woo

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In reply to serious environmental problems, the Taiwan government quickly adjusted some articles to suit the needs of environmental protection recently, such as the amendment to article 190-1 of the Taiwan Criminal Code. The transfer of legislation comes as an improvement which canceled the limitation of ‘endangering public safety’. At the same time, the article 190-1 goes from accumulative concrete offense to abstract crime of danger. Thus, the public looks forward to whether environmental crime following the imposition of fines or penalties works efficiently in anti-pollution by the deterrent effects. However, according to the addition to article 38-2 of the Taiwan Criminal Code, the confiscation system seems controversial legislation to restrain ill-gotten gains. Most prior studies focused on comparisons with the Administrative Penalty Law and the Criminal Code in environmental issue in Taiwan; recently, more and more studies emphasize calculations on ill-gotten gains. Hence, this paper try to examine the deterrent effect in environmental crime by economic analysis of law and environmental economics perspective. This analysis shows that only if there is an extremely high probability (equal to 100 percent) of an environmental crime case being prosecuted criminally by Taiwan Environmental Protection Agency, the deterrent effects will work. Therefore, this paper suggests deliberating the confiscation system from supplementing the System of Environmental and Economic Accounting, reasonable deterrent fines, input management, real-time system for detection of pollution, and whistleblower system, environmental education, and modernization of law.

Keywords: confiscation, ecosystem services, environmental crime, ill-gotten gains, the deterrent effect, the system of environmental and economic accounting

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481 Assessing Effects of an Intervention on Bottle-Weaning and Reducing Daily Milk Intake from Bottles in Toddlers Using Two-Part Random Effects Models

Authors: Yungtai Lo

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Two-part random effects models have been used to fit semi-continuous longitudinal data where the response variable has a point mass at 0 and a continuous right-skewed distribution for positive values. We review methods proposed in the literature for analyzing data with excess zeros. A two-part logit-log-normal random effects model, a two-part logit-truncated normal random effects model, a two-part logit-gamma random effects model, and a two-part logit-skew normal random effects model were used to examine effects of a bottle-weaning intervention on reducing bottle use and daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers aged 11 to 13 months in a randomized controlled trial. We show in all four two-part models that the intervention promoted bottle-weaning and reduced daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers drinking from a bottle. We also show that there are no differences in model fit using either the logit link function or the probit link function for modeling the probability of bottle-weaning in all four models. Furthermore, prediction accuracy of the logit or probit link function is not sensitive to the distribution assumption on daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers not off bottles.

Keywords: two-part model, semi-continuous variable, truncated normal, gamma regression, skew normal, Pearson residual, receiver operating characteristic curve

Procedia PDF Downloads 334
480 CSR Communication Strategies: Stakeholder and Institutional Theories Perspective

Authors: Stephanie Gracelyn Rahaman, Chew Yin Teng, Manjit Singh Sandhu

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Corporate scandals have made stakeholders apprehensive of large companies and expect greater transparency in CSR matters. However, companies find it challenging to strategically communicate CSR to intended stakeholders and in the process may fall short on maximizing on CSR efforts. Given that stakeholders have the ability to either reward good companies or take legal action or boycott against corporate brands who do not act socially responsible, companies must create shared understanding of their CSR activities. As a result, communication has become a strategy for many companies to demonstrate CSR engagement and to minimize stakeholder skepticism. The main objective of this research is to examine the types of CSR communication strategies and predictors that guide CSR communication strategies. Employing Morsing & Schultz’s guide on CSR communication strategies, the study integrates stakeholder and institutional theory to develop a conceptual framework. The conceptual framework hypothesized that stakeholder (instrumental and normative) and institutional (regulatory environment, nature of business, mimetic intention, CSR focus and corporate objectives) dimensions would drive CSR communication strategies. Preliminary findings from semi-structured interviews in Malaysia are consistent with the conceptual model in that stakeholder and institutional expectations guide CSR communication strategies. Findings show that most companies use two-way communication strategies. Companies that identified employees, the public or customers as key stakeholders have started to embrace social media to be in-sync with new trends of communication. This is especially with the Gen Y which is their priority. Some companies creatively use multiple communication channels because they recognize different stakeholders favor different communication channels. Therefore, it appears that companies use two-way communication strategies to complement the perceived limitation of one-way communication strategies as some companies prefer a more interactive platform to strategically engage stakeholders in CSR communication. In addition to stakeholders, institutional expectations also play a vital role in influencing CSR communication. Due to industry peer pressures, corporate objectives (attract international investors and customers), companies may be more driven to excel in social performance. For these reasons companies tend to go beyond the basic mandatory requirement, excel in CSR activities and be known as companies that champion CSR. In conclusion, companies use more two-way than one-way communication and companies use a combination of one and two-way communication to target different stakeholders resulting from stakeholder and institutional dimensions. Finally, in order to find out if the conceptual framework actually fits the Malaysian context, companies’ responses for expected organizational outcomes from communicating CSR were gathered from the interview transcripts. Thereafter, findings are presented to show some of the key organizational outcomes (visibility and brand recognition, portray responsible image, attract prospective employees, positive word-of-mouth, etc.) that companies in Malaysia expect from CSR communication. Based on these findings the conceptual framework has been refined to show the new identified organizational outcomes.

Keywords: CSR communication, CSR communication strategies, stakeholder theory, institutional theory, conceptual framework, Malaysia

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479 Identification of Flooding Attack (Zero Day Attack) at Application Layer Using Mathematical Model and Detection Using Correlations

Authors: Hamsini Pulugurtha, V.S. Lakshmi Jagadmaba Paluri

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Distributed denial of service attack (DDoS) is one altogether the top-rated cyber threats presently. It runs down the victim server resources like a system of measurement and buffer size by obstructing the server to supply resources to legitimate shoppers. Throughout this text, we tend to tend to propose a mathematical model of DDoS attack; we discuss its relevancy to the choices like inter-arrival time or rate of arrival of the assault customers accessing the server. We tend to tend to further analyze the attack model in context to the exhausting system of measurement and buffer size of the victim server. The projected technique uses an associate in nursing unattended learning technique, self-organizing map, to make the clusters of identical choices. Lastly, the abstract applies mathematical correlation and so the standard likelihood distribution on the clusters and analyses their behaviors to look at a DDoS attack. These systems not exclusively interconnect very little devices exchanging personal data, but to boot essential infrastructures news standing of nuclear facilities. Although this interconnection brings many edges and blessings, it to boot creates new vulnerabilities and threats which might be conversant in mount attacks. In such sophisticated interconnected systems, the power to look at attacks as early as accomplishable is of paramount importance.

Keywords: application attack, bandwidth, buffer correlation, DDoS distribution flooding intrusion layer, normal prevention probability size

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478 Presenting a Model in the Analysis of Supply Chain Management Components by Using Statistical Distribution Functions

Authors: Ramin Rostamkhani, Thurasamy Ramayah

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One of the most important topics of today’s industrial organizations is the challenging issue of supply chain management. In this field, scientists and researchers have published numerous practical articles and models, especially in the last decade. In this research, to our best knowledge, the discussion of data modeling of supply chain management components using well-known statistical distribution functions has been considered. The world of science owns mathematics, and showing the behavior of supply chain data based on the characteristics of statistical distribution functions is innovative research that has not been published anywhere until the moment of doing this research. In an analytical process, describing different aspects of functions including probability density, cumulative distribution, reliability, and failure function can reach the suitable statistical distribution function for each of the components of the supply chain management. It can be applied to predict the behavior data of the relevant component in the future. Providing a model to adapt the best statistical distribution function in the supply chain management components will be a big revolution in the field of the behavior of the supply chain management elements in today's industrial organizations. Demonstrating the final results of the proposed model by introducing the process capability indices before and after implementing it alongside verifying the approach through the relevant assessment as an acceptable verification is a final step. The introduced approach can save the required time and cost to achieve the organizational goals. Moreover, it can increase added value in the organization.

Keywords: analyzing, process capability indices, statistical distribution functions, supply chain management components

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477 Comparison of Bone Mineral Density of Lumbar Spines between High Level Cyclists and Sedentary

Authors: Mohammad Shabani

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The physical activities depending on the nature of the mechanical stresses they induce on bone sometimes have brought about different results. The purpose of this study was to compare bone mineral density (BMD) of the lumbar spine between the high-level cyclists and sedentary. Materials and Methods: In the present study, 73 cyclists senior (age: 25.81 ± 4.35 years; height: 179.66 ± 6.31 cm; weight: 71.55 ± 6.31 kg) and 32 sedentary subjects (age: 28.28 ± 4.52 years; height: 176.56 ± 6.2 cm; weight: 74.47 ± 8.35 kg) participated voluntarily. All cyclists belonged to the different teams from the International Cycling Union and they trained competitively for 10 years. BMD of the lumbar spine of the subjects was measured using DXA X-ray (Lunar). Descriptive statistics calculations were performed using computer software data processing (Statview 5, SAS Institute Inc. USA). The comparison of two independent distributions (BMD high level cyclists and sedentary) was made by the Student T Test standard. Probability 0.05 (p≤0 / 05) was adopted as significance. Results: The result of this study showed that the BMD values of the lumbar spine of sedentary subjects were significantly higher for all measured segments. Conclusion and Discussion: Cycling is firstly a common sport and on the other hand endurance sport. It is now accepted that weight bearing exercises have an osteogenic effect compared to non-weight bearing exercises. Thus, endurance sports such as cycling, compared to the activities imposing intense force in short time, seem not to really be osteogenic. Therefore, it can be concluded that cycling provides low stimulates osteogenic because of specific biomechanical forces of the sport and its lack of impact.

Keywords: BMD, lumbar spine, high level cyclist, cycling

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476 Photoluminescence and Spectroscopic Studies of Tm3+ Ions Doped Lead Tungsten Tellurite Glasses for Visible Red and Near-Ir Laser Applications

Authors: M. Venkateswarlu, Srinivasa Rao Allam, S. K. Mahamuda, K. Swapna, G. Vijaya Prakash

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Lead Tungsten Tellurite (LTT) glasses doped with different concentrations of Tm3+ ions were prepared by using melt quenching technique and characterized through optical absorption, photoluminescence and decay spectral studies to know the feasibility of using these glasses as luminescent devices in visible Red and NIR regions. By using optical absorption spectral data, the energy band gaps for all the glasses were evaluated and were found to be in the range of 2.34-2.59 eV; which is very useful for the construction of optical devices. Judd-Ofelt (J-O)theory has been applied to the optical absorption spectral profiles to calculate the J-O intensity parameters Ωλ (λ=2, 4 and 6) and consecutively used to evaluate various radiative properties such as radiative transition probability (AR), radiative lifetimes (τ_R) and branching ratios (β_R) for the prominent luminescent levels. The luminescence spectra for all the LTT glass samples have shown two intense peaks in bright red and Near Infrared regions at 650 nm (1G4→3F4) and 800 nm (3H4→3H6) respectively for which effective bandwidths (〖Δλ〗_P), experimental branching ratios (β_exp) and stimulated emission cross-sections (σ_se) are evaluated. The decay profiles for all the glasses were also recorded to measure the quantum efficiency of the prepared LTT glasses by coupling the radiative and experimental lifetimes. From the measured emission cross-sections, quantum efficiency and CIE chromaticity coordinates, it was found that 0.5 mol% of Tm3+ ions doped LTT glass is most suitable for generating bright visible red and NIR lasers to operate at 650 and 800 nm respectively.

Keywords: glasses, JO parameters, optical materials, thullium

Procedia PDF Downloads 232
475 Monitoring and Evaluation of Web-Services Quality and Medium-Term Impact on E-Government Agencies' Efficiency

Authors: A. F. Huseynov, N. T. Mardanov, J. Y. Nakhchivanski

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This practical research is aimed to improve the management quality and efficiency of public administration agencies providing e-services. The monitoring system developed will provide continuous review of the websites compliance with the selected indicators, their evaluation based on the selected indicators and ranking of services according to the quality criteria. The responsible departments in the government agencies were surveyed; the questionnaire includes issues of management and feedback, e-services provided, and the application of information systems. By analyzing the main affecting factors and barriers, the recommendations will be given that lead to the relevant decisions to strengthen the state agencies competencies for the management and the provision of their services. Component 1. E-services monitoring system. Three separate monitoring activities are proposed to be executed in parallel: Continuous tracing of e-government sites using built-in web-monitoring program; this program generates several quantitative values which are basically related to the technical characteristics and the performance of websites. The expert assessment of e-government sites in accordance with the two general criteria. Criterion 1. Technical quality of the site. Criterion 2. Usability/accessibility (load, see, use). Each high-level criterion is in turn subdivided into several sub-criteria, such as: the fonts and the color of the background (Is it readable?), W3C coding standards, availability of the Robots.txt and the site map, the search engine, the feedback/contact and the security mechanisms. The on-line survey of the users/citizens – a small group of questions embedded in the e-service websites. The questionnaires comprise of the information concerning navigation, users’ experience with the website (whether it was positive or negative), etc. Automated monitoring of web-sites by its own could not capture the whole evaluation process, and should therefore be seen as a complement to expert’s manual web evaluations. All of the separate results were integrated to provide the complete evaluation picture. Component 2. Assessment of the agencies/departments efficiency in providing e-government services. - the relevant indicators to evaluate the efficiency and the effectiveness of e-services were identified; - the survey was conducted in all the governmental organizations (ministries, committees and agencies) that provide electronic services for the citizens or the businesses; - the quantitative and qualitative measures are covering the following sections of activities: e-governance, e-services, the feedback from the users, the information systems at the agencies’ disposal. Main results: 1. The software program and the set of indicators for internet sites evaluation has been developed and the results of pilot monitoring have been presented. 2. The evaluation of the (internal) efficiency of the e-government agencies based on the survey results with the practical recommendations related to the human potential, the information systems used and e-services provided.

Keywords: e-government, web-sites monitoring, survey, internal efficiency

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474 Integration of Gravity and Seismic Methods in the Geometric Characterization of a Dune Reservoir: Case of the Zouaraa Basin, NW Tunisia

Authors: Marwa Djebbi, Hakim Gabtni

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Gravity is a continuously advancing method that has become a mature technology for geological studies. Increasingly, it has been used to complement and constrain traditional seismic data and even used as the only tool to get information of the sub-surface. In fact, in some regions the seismic data, if available, are of poor quality and hard to be interpreted. Such is the case for the current study area. The Nefza zone is part of the Tellian fold and thrust belt domain in the north west of Tunisia. It is essentially made of a pile of allochthonous units resulting from a major Neogene tectonic event. Its tectonic and stratigraphic developments have always been subject of controversies. Considering the geological and hydrogeological importance of this area, a detailed interdisciplinary study has been conducted integrating geology, seismic and gravity techniques. The interpretation of Gravity data allowed the delimitation of the dune reservoir and the identification of the regional lineaments contouring the area. It revealed the presence of three gravity lows that correspond to the dune of Zouara and Ouchtata separated along with a positive gravity axis espousing the Ain Allega_Aroub Er Roumane axe. The Bouguer gravity map illustrated the compartmentalization of the Zouara dune into two depressions separated by a NW-SE anomaly trend. This constitution was confirmed by the vertical derivative map which showed the individualization of two depressions with slightly different anomaly values. The horizontal gravity gradient magnitude was performed in order to determine the different geological features present in the studied area. The latest indicated the presence of NE-SW parallel folds according to the major Atlasic direction. Also, NW-SE and EW trends were identified. The maxima tracing confirmed this direction by the presence of NE-SW faults, mainly the Ghardimaou_Cap Serrat accident. The quality of the available seismic sections and the absence of borehole data in the region, except few hydraulic wells that been drilled and showing the heterogeneity of the substratum of the dune, required the process of gravity modeling of this challenging area that necessitates to be modeled for the geometrical characterization of the dune reservoir and determine the different stratigraphic series underneath these deposits. For more detailed and accurate results, the scale of study will be reduced in coming research. A more concise method will be elaborated; the 4D microgravity survey. This approach is considered as an expansion of gravity method and its fourth dimension is time. It will allow a continuous and repeated monitoring of fluid movement in the subsurface according to the micro gal (μgall) scale. The gravity effect is a result of a monthly variation of the dynamic groundwater level which correlates with rainfall during different periods.

Keywords: 3D gravity modeling, dune reservoir, heterogeneous substratum, seismic interpretation

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473 Promoting Class Cooperation-Competition (Coo-Petition) and Empowerment to Graduating Architecture Students through a Holistic Planning Approach in Their Thesis Proposals

Authors: Felicisimo Azagra Tejuco Jr.

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Mentoring architecture thesis students is a very critical and exhausting task for both the adviser and advisee. It poses the challenges of resource and time management for the candidate while the best professional guidance from the mentor. The University of Santo Tomas (Manila, Philippines) is Asia's oldest university. Among its notable program is its Architecture curriculum. Presently, the five-year Architecture program requires ten semesters of academic coursework. The last three semesters are relevant to each Architecture graduating student's thesis proposal and defense. The thesis proposal is developed and submitted for approval in the subject Research Methods for Architecture (RMA). Data gathering and initial schemes are conducted in Architectural Design (AD), 9, and are finalized and defended in AD 10. In recent years, their graduating students have maintained an average of 300 candidates before the pandemic. They are encouraged to explore any topic of interest or relevance. Since 2019-2020, one thesis class has used a community planning approach in mentoring the class. Compared to other sections, the first meeting of RMA has been allocated for a visioning exercise and assessment of the class's strengths-weaknesses and opportunities-threats (SWOT). Here, the work activities of the group have been finetuned to address some identified concerns while still being aligned with the academic calendar. Occasional peer critics complement class lectures. The course will end with the approval of the student's proposal. The final year or last two semesters of the graduating class will be focused on the approved proposal. Compared to the other class, the 18 weeks of the first semester consist of regular consultations, complemented by lectures from the adviser or guest speakers. Through remote peer consultations, the mentor maximized each meeting in groups of three to five, encouraging constructive criticism among the class. At the end of the first semester, mock presentations to the external jury are conducted to check the design outputs for improvement. The final semester is spent more on the finalization of the plans. Feedback from the previous semester is expected to be integrated into the final outputs. Before the final deliberations, at least two technical rehearsals were conducted per group. Regardless of the outcome, an assessment of each student's performance is held as a class. Personal realizations and observations are encouraged. Through Online surveys, Interviews, and Focused Group Discussions with the former students, the effectiveness of the mentoring strategies was reviewed and evaluated. Initial feedback highlighted the relevance of setting a positive tone for the course, constructive criticisms from peers & experts, and consciousness of deadlines as essential elements for a practical semester.

Keywords: cooperation, competition, student empowerment, class vision

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472 Effects of Dietary Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids and Beta Glucan on Maturity, Immunity, and Fry Quality of Pabdah Catfish, Ompok pabda

Authors: Zakir Hossain, Saddam Hossain

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A nutritionally balanced diet and selection of appropriate species are important criteria in aquaculture. The present study was conducted to evaluate the effects of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) and beta glucan-containing diets on growth performance, feed utilization, maturation, immunity, early embryonic and larval development of endangered Pabdah catfish, Ompok pabda. In this study, squid extracted lipids and mushroom powder were used as the source of PUFAs and beta-glucan, respectively, and formulated two isonitrogenous diets such as a basal or control (CON) diet and a treated (PBG) diet with maintaining 30% protein levels. During the study period, similar physicochemical conditions of water such as temperature, pH, and dissolved oxygen (DO) were 26.5±2 °C, 7.4±0.2, and 6.7±0.5 ppm, respectively, in each cistern. The results showed that final mean body weight, final mean length gain, food conversion ratio (FCR), specific growth rate (SGR), food conversion efficiency (%), hepato somatic index (HSI), kidney index (KI), and viscerosomatic index (VSI) were significantly (P<0.01 and P<0.05) higher in fish fed the PBG diet than that of fish fed the CON diet. The length-weight relationship and relative condition factor (K) of O. pabda were significantly (P<0.05) affected by the PBG diet. The gonadosomatic index (GSI), sperm viability, blood serum calcium ion concentrations (Ca²⁺), and vitellogenin level were significantly (P<0.05) higher in fish fed the PBG diet than that of fish fed the CON diet; which was used to the indication of fish maturation. During the spawning season, lipid granules and normal morphological structure were observed in the treated fish liver, whereas fewer lipid granules of liver were observed in the control group. Based on the immunity and stress resistance-related parameters such as hematological indices, antioxidant activity, lysozyme level, respiratory burst activity, blood reactive oxygen species (ROS), complement activity (ACH50 assay), specific IgM, brain AChE, plasma PGOT, and PGPT enzyme activity were significantly (P<0.01 and P<0.05) higher in fish fed the PBG diet than that of fish fed the CON diet. The fecundity, fertilization rate (92.23±2.69%), hatching rate (87.43±2.17 %), and survival (76.62±0.82%) of offspring were significantly higher (P˂0.05) in the PBG diet than in control. Consequently, early embryonic and larval development was better in PBG treated group than in control. Therefore, the present study showed that the polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) and beta-glucan enriched experimental diet were more effective and achieved better growth, feed utilization, maturation, immunity, and spawning performances of O. pabda.

Keywords: lipids, beta-glucan, fish maturity, fish immunity

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471 Power Production Performance of Different Wave Energy Converters in the Southwestern Black Sea

Authors: Ajab G. Majidi, Bilal Bingölbali, Adem Akpınar

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This study aims to investigate the amount of energy (economic wave energy potential) that can be obtained from the existing wave energy converters in the high wave energy potential region of the Black Sea in terms of wave energy potential and their performance at different depths in the region. The data needed for this purpose were obtained using the calibrated nested layered SWAN wave modeling program version 41.01AB, which was forced with Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) winds from 1979 to 2009. The wave dataset at a time interval of 2 hours was accumulated for a sub-grid domain for around Karaburun beach in Arnavutkoy, a district of Istanbul city. The annual sea state characteristic matrices for the five different depths along with a vertical line to the coastline were calculated for 31 years. According to the power matrices of different wave energy converter systems and characteristic matrices for each possible installation depth, the probability distribution tables of the specified mean wave period or wave energy period and significant wave height were calculated. Then, by using the relationship between these distribution tables, according to the present wave climate, the energy that the wave energy converter systems at each depth can produce was determined. Thus, the economically feasible potential of the relevant coastal zone was revealed, and the effect of different depths on energy converter systems is presented. The Oceantic at 50, 75 and 100 m depths and Oyster at 5 and 25 m depths presents the best performance. In the 31-year long period 1998 the most and 1989 is the least dynamic year.

Keywords: annual power production, Black Sea, efficiency, power production performance, wave energy converter

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470 Study of Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices of Menstrual Hygiene of Adolescent Girls Aged 12 to 19 Years Old in Secondary School

Authors: Jean Marie Vianney Ininahazwe, Patrick Bitangumutwenzi

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Context: The issue of menstrual hygiene is an entry point for demonstrating the gender-specific nature of the needs of women and adolescent girls. Women and girls around the world face many challenges in managing their periods. They may be deprived of certain basic human rights, including those relating to education, work and health. This work describes the Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices of menstrual hygiene among adolescent girls from 12 to 19 years at Lake Tanganyika Secondary School. Method: This is a descriptive cross-sectional study among 384 adolescent girls from Lake Tanganyika secondary school over a period of 2 weeks from September 13 to September 27 and with a purely general objective of describing the Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices of menstrual hygiene in secondary schools. The study was conducted using a non-probability method and the sampling technique was for convenience. The data collection technique used was the survey by questionnaire and the exploitation of the documentary. The data collection tool used was the questionnaire. Microsoft Word 2013, Microsoft Excel 2.13 and EPI INFO7 software were used for this purpose. Results: We noticed that 55.47% of the participants knew that menstruation is a physiological process; 57.55% of the teenage girls surveyed get their information about menstrual hygiene from their mothers; 75.72% use sanitary napkins and 24.02% use fabrics as protective material; 35.16% of respondents have already lacked sanitary napkins since their menarche; 37.29% are absent from classes due to lack of sanitary napkins; 23.82% use soap and other products to wash.

Keywords: knowledge, attitudes, practices, menstrual hygiene

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469 Energy Use and Econometric Models of Soybean Production in Mazandaran Province of Iran

Authors: Majid AghaAlikhani, Mostafa Hojati, Saeid Satari-Yuzbashkandi

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This paper studies energy use patterns and relationship between energy input and yield for soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merrill) in Mazandaran province of Iran. In this study, data were collected by administering a questionnaire in face-to-face interviews. Results revealed that the highest share of energy consumption belongs to chemical fertilizers (29.29%) followed by diesel (23.42%) and electricity (22.80%). Our investigations showed that a total energy input of 23404.1 MJ.ha-1 was consumed for soybean production. The energy productivity, specific energy, and net energy values were estimated as 0.12 kg MJ-1, 8.03 MJ kg-1, and 49412.71 MJ.ha-1, respectively. The ratio of energy outputs to energy inputs was 3.11. Obtained results indicated that direct, indirect, renewable and non-renewable energies were (56.83%), (43.17%), (15.78%) and (84.22%), respectively. Three econometric models were also developed to estimate the impact of energy inputs on yield. The results of econometric models revealed that impact of chemical, fertilizer, and water on yield were significant at 1% probability level. Also, direct and non-renewable energies were found to be rather high. Cost analysis revealed that total cost of soybean production per ha was around 518.43$. Accordingly, the benefit-cost ratio was estimated as 2.58. The energy use efficiency in soybean production was found as 3.11. This reveals that the inputs used in soybean production are used efficiently. However, due to higher rate of nitrogen fertilizer consumption, sustainable agriculture should be extended and extension staff could be proposed substitution of chemical fertilizer by biological fertilizer or green manure.

Keywords: Cobbe Douglas function, economical analysis, energy efficiency, energy use patterns, soybean

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468 Seismic Activity and Groundwater Behavior at Kalabsha Area, Aswan, Egypt

Authors: S. M. Moustafa, A. Ezzat, Y. S. Taha, G. H. Hassib, S. Hamada

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After the occurrence of 14, Nov, 1981 earthquake (M = 5.3), on Kalabska fault, south of Egypt, seismic stations distributed in and around the Kalabsha area, in order to monitoring, recording and studying the seismic activity in the area. In addition of that, from 1989 a number of piezometer wells drilled in the same area, distribed on at the both side of the active faults area and in different water bearing formations, in order to measuring the groundwater parameters (level, temperature, ph, and conductivity) to monitoring the relationship between those parameters and the seismic activity at Kalabsha area. The behavior of groundwater due to seismic activity over the world studied by several scientists i.e. H. Wakita (1979) on Izu-Oshima earthquake (M= 7.0) at Japan, M. E. Contadakis & G.asteriadis (1972), and Evans (1966), they found an anomalies on groundwater measurements prior, co, and post the occurrence of bigger earthquakes, referring to the probability of precursory evidence of impending earthquakes. In Kalabsha area south of Egypt, this study has been done using recorded seismic data, and the measurements of underground water parameters. same phenomena of anomalies founded on groundwater measurements pre, co. and post the occurrence of earthquakes with magnitude bigger than 3, and no systematic regularity exists for epicenter distance, duration of anomalies or time lag between anomalies appear and occurrence of events. Also the results found present strong relation between the groundwater in the upper unconfined aquifer Nubian Sandstone formation, and Kalabsha seismic activity, otherwise no relation between the seismic activities in the area with the deep groundwater in the lower confined aquifer Sandstone.

Keywords: seismicity, groundwater, Aswan, Egypt

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467 Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices of Menstrual Hygiene of Adolescent Girls Aged 12 to 19 Years Old at Lake Tanganyika Lycee

Authors: Yvette Nsabimana, Nadine Misago, Minani Methode

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Context: the issue of menstrual hygiene is an entry point for demonstrating the gender-specific nature of the needs of women and adolescent girls. Women and girls around the world face many challenges in managing their periods. They may be deprived of certain basic human rights, including those relating to education, work and health. This work describes the Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices of menstrual hygiene among adolescent girls from 12 to 19 years of Lake Tanganyika Secondary School. Method: This is a descriptive cross-sectional study among 384 adolescent girls from Lake Tanganyika secondary school over a period of 2 weeks from September 13 to September 27 and with a purely general objective of describing the Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices of menstrual hygiene in secondary schools. The study was conducted using a non-probability method and the sampling technique was for convenience. The data collection technique used was the survey by questionnaire and the exploitation of the documentary. The data collection tool used was the questionnaire. Microsoft Word 2013, Microsoft Excel 2.13 and EPI INFO7 software were used for this purpose. Results: We noticed that 55.47% of the participants knew that menstruation is a physiological process; 57.55% of the teenage girls surveyed get their information about menstrual hygiene from their mothers; 75.72% use sanitary napkins and 24.02% use fabrics as protective material; 35.16% of respondents have already lacked sanitary napkins since their menarche; 37.29% are absent from classes due to lack of sanitary napkins; 23.82% use soap and other products to wash.

Keywords: knowledge, attitudes, practices, menstrual hygiene

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466 Development of Printed Media for Public Relations of Community Products in Bang Khonthi District, Samut Songkram Province

Authors: Kathaleeya Chanda

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The objectives of the research on the development of printed media for public relations of community products in Bang Khonthi District, Samut Songkram Province were to; 1) develop printed media for public relations of community products in Bang Khonthi District, Samut Songkram Province and 2) study the satisfaction towards the printed media for public relations of community products in Bang Khonthi District, Samut Songkram Province. The study was on the satisfaction focused on content, illustration, design, and quality. The sampling group of this study included 30 local community producers selected by probability sampling and simple random sampling. The research procedure consisted of 4 phases; 1) problem and situation study, 2) the development of printed media for public relations, 3) research tool development, and 4) data collection. Questionnaires to evaluate the satisfaction of local community producers towards the printed media for public relation were used to collect data which were analysed to find percentage, arithmetic means, and standard deviation. The results showed that the informants reported their satisfaction on 4 aspects as follows: 1) very high satisfaction on the content, 2) high satisfaction on the illustration, 3) very high satisfaction on the design, and 4) very high satisfaction on the product quality. This can be concluded that the developed printed media for public relations of community products can be used effectively with high satisfaction.

Keywords: printed media, public relations, community products in Bang Khonthi district, Samut Songkram Province

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465 A Survey of Digital Health Companies: Opportunities and Business Model Challenges

Authors: Iris Xiaohong Quan

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The global digital health market reached 175 billion U.S. dollars in 2019, and is expected to grow at about 25% CAGR to over 650 billion USD by 2025. Different terms such as digital health, e-health, mHealth, telehealth have been used in the field, which can sometimes cause confusion. The term digital health was originally introduced to refer specifically to the use of interactive media, tools, platforms, applications, and solutions that are connected to the Internet to address health concerns of providers as well as consumers. While mHealth emphasizes the use of mobile phones in healthcare, telehealth means using technology to remotely deliver clinical health services to patients. According to FDA, “the broad scope of digital health includes categories such as mobile health (mHealth), health information technology (IT), wearable devices, telehealth and telemedicine, and personalized medicine.” Some researchers believe that digital health is nothing else but the cultural transformation healthcare has been going through in the 21st century because of digital health technologies that provide data to both patients and medical professionals. As digital health is burgeoning, but research in the area is still inadequate, our paper aims to clear the definition confusion and provide an overall picture of digital health companies. We further investigate how business models are designed and differentiated in the emerging digital health sector. Both quantitative and qualitative methods are adopted in the research. For the quantitative analysis, our research data came from two databases Crunchbase and CBInsights, which are well-recognized information sources for researchers, entrepreneurs, managers, and investors. We searched a few keywords in the Crunchbase database based on companies’ self-description: digital health, e-health, and telehealth. A search of “digital health” returned 941 unique results, “e-health” returned 167 companies, while “telehealth” 427. We also searched the CBInsights database for similar information. After merging and removing duplicate ones and cleaning up the database, we came up with a list of 1464 companies as digital health companies. A qualitative method will be used to complement the quantitative analysis. We will do an in-depth case analysis of three successful unicorn digital health companies to understand how business models evolve and discuss the challenges faced in this sector. Our research returned some interesting findings. For instance, we found that 86% of the digital health startups were founded in the recent decade since 2010. 75% of the digital health companies have less than 50 employees, and almost 50% with less than 10 employees. This shows that digital health companies are relatively young and small in scale. On the business model analysis, while traditional healthcare businesses emphasize the so-called “3P”—patient, physicians, and payer, digital health companies extend to “5p” by adding patents, which is the result of technology requirements (such as the development of artificial intelligence models), and platform, which is an effective value creation approach to bring the stakeholders together. Our case analysis will detail the 5p framework and contribute to the extant knowledge on business models in the healthcare industry.

Keywords: digital health, business models, entrepreneurship opportunities, healthcare

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464 Application of Interferometric Techniques for Quality Control Oils Used in the Food Industry

Authors: Andres Piña, Amy Meléndez, Pablo Cano, Tomas Cahuich

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The purpose of this project is to propose a quick and environmentally friendly alternative to measure the quality of oils used in food industry. There is evidence that repeated and indiscriminate use of oils in food processing cause physicochemical changes with formation of potentially toxic compounds that can affect the health of consumers and cause organoleptic changes. In order to assess the quality of oils, non-destructive optical techniques such as Interferometry offer a rapid alternative to the use of reagents, using only the interaction of light on the oil. Through this project, we used interferograms of samples of oil placed under different heating conditions to establish the changes in their quality. These interferograms were obtained by means of a Mach-Zehnder Interferometer using a beam of light from a HeNe laser of 10mW at 632.8nm. Each interferogram was captured, analyzed and measured full width at half-maximum (FWHM) using the software from Amcap and ImageJ. The total of FWHMs was organized in three groups. It was observed that the average obtained from each of the FWHMs of group A shows a behavior that is almost linear, therefore it is probable that the exposure time is not relevant when the oil is kept under constant temperature. Group B exhibits a slight exponential model when temperature raises between 373 K and 393 K. Results of the t-Student show a probability of 95% (0.05) of the existence of variation in the molecular composition of both samples. Furthermore, we found a correlation between the Iodine Indexes (Physicochemical Analysis) and the Interferograms (Optical Analysis) of group C. Based on these results, this project highlights the importance of the quality of the oils used in food industry and shows how Interferometry can be a useful tool for this purpose.

Keywords: food industry, interferometric, oils, quality control

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463 Regional Dynamics of Innovation and Entrepreneurship in the Optics and Photonics Industry

Authors: Mustafa İlhan Akbaş, Özlem Garibay, Ivan Garibay

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The economic entities in innovation ecosystems form various industry clusters, in which they compete and cooperate to survive and grow. Within a successful and stable industry cluster, the entities acquire different roles that complement each other in the system. The universities and research centers have been accepted to have a critical role in these systems for the creation and development of innovations. However, the real effect of research institutions on regional economic growth is difficult to assess. In this paper, we present our approach for the identification of the impact of research activities on the regional entrepreneurship for a specific high-tech industry: optics and photonics. The optics and photonics has been defined as an enabling industry, which combines the high-tech photonics technology with the developing optics industry. The recent literature suggests that the growth of optics and photonics firms depends on three important factors: the embedded regional specializations in the labor market, the research and development infrastructure, and a dynamic small firm network capable of absorbing new technologies, products and processes. Therefore, the role of each factor and the dynamics among them must be understood to identify the requirements of the entrepreneurship activities in optics and photonics industry. There are three main contributions of our approach. The recent studies show that the innovation in optics and photonics industry is mostly located around metropolitan areas. There are also studies mentioning the importance of research center locations and universities in the regional development of optics and photonics industry. These studies are mostly limited with the number of patents received within a short period of time or some limited survey results. Therefore the first contribution of our approach is conducting a comprehensive analysis for the state and recent history of the photonics and optics research in the US. For this purpose, both the research centers specialized in optics and photonics and the related research groups in various departments of institutions (e.g. Electrical Engineering, Materials Science) are identified and a geographical study of their locations is presented. The second contribution of the paper is the analysis of regional entrepreneurship activities in optics and photonics in recent years. We use the membership data of the International Society for Optics and Photonics (SPIE) and the regional photonics clusters to identify the optics and photonics companies in the US. Then the profiles and activities of these companies are gathered by extracting and integrating the related data from the National Establishment Time Series (NETS) database, ES-202 database and the data sets from the regional photonics clusters. The number of start-ups, their employee numbers and sales are some examples of the extracted data for the industry. Our third contribution is the utilization of collected data to investigate the impact of research institutions on the regional optics and photonics industry growth and entrepreneurship. In this analysis, the regional and periodical conditions of the overall market are taken into consideration while discovering and quantifying the statistical correlations.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, industrial clusters, optics, photonics, emerging industries, research centers

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462 Behavior of Epoxy Insulator with Surface Defect under HVDC Stress

Authors: Qingying Liu, S. Liu, L. Hao, B. Zhang, J. D. Yan

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HVDC technology is becoming increasingly popular due to its simplicity in topology and less power loss over long distance of power transmission, in comparison with HVAC technology. However, the dielectric behavior of insulators in the long term under HVDC stress is completely different from that under HVAC stress as a result of charge accumulation in a constant electric field. Insulators used in practical systems are never perfect in their structural conditions. Over time shallow cracks may develop on their surface. The presence of defects can lead to drastic change in their dielectric behaviour and thus increase the probability of surface flashover. In this contribution, experimental investigations have been carried out on the charge accumulation phenomenon on the surface of a rod insulator made of epoxy that is placed between two disk shaped electrodes at different voltage levels and in different gases (SF6, CO2 and N2). Many results obtained, such as, the two-dimensional electrostatic potential distribution along the insulator surface after the removal of the power source following a pre-defined period of application. The probe has been carefully calibrated before each test. Results show that surface charge distribution near the two disk shaped electrodes is not uniform in the circumferential direction, possibly due to the imperfect electrical connections between the embeded conductor in the insulator and the disk shaped electrodes. The axial length of this non-uniform region is experimentally determined, which provides useful information for shielding design. A charge transport model is also used to explain the formation of the long term electrostatic potential distribution under a constant applied voltage.

Keywords: HVDC, power systems, dielectric behavior, insulation, charge accumulation

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461 Infrastructure Change Monitoring Using Multitemporal Multispectral Satellite Images

Authors: U. Datta

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The main objective of this study is to find a suitable approach to monitor the land infrastructure growth over a period of time using multispectral satellite images. Bi-temporal change detection method is unable to indicate the continuous change occurring over a long period of time. To achieve this objective, the approach used here estimates a statistical model from series of multispectral image data over a long period of time, assuming there is no considerable change during that time period and then compare it with the multispectral image data obtained at a later time. The change is estimated pixel-wise. Statistical composite hypothesis technique is used for estimating pixel based change detection in a defined region. The generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) is used to detect the changed pixel from probabilistic estimated model of the corresponding pixel. The changed pixel is detected assuming that the images have been co-registered prior to estimation. To minimize error due to co-registration, 8-neighborhood pixels around the pixel under test are also considered. The multispectral images from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 from 2015 to 2018 are used for this purpose. There are different challenges in this method. First and foremost challenge is to get quite a large number of datasets for multivariate distribution modelling. A large number of images are always discarded due to cloud coverage. Due to imperfect modelling there will be high probability of false alarm. Overall conclusion that can be drawn from this work is that the probabilistic method described in this paper has given some promising results, which need to be pursued further.

Keywords: co-registration, GLRT, infrastructure growth, multispectral, multitemporal, pixel-based change detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 119
460 Mitigating Denial of Service Attacks in Information Centric Networking

Authors: Bander Alzahrani

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Information-centric networking (ICN) using architectures such as Publish-Subscribe Internet Routing Paradigm (PSIRP) is one of the promising candidates for a future Internet, has recently been under the spotlight by the research community to investigate the possibility of redesigning the current Internet architecture to solve many issues such as routing scalability, security, and quality of services issues.. The Bloom filter-based forwarding is a source-routing approach that is used in the PSIRP architecture. This mechanism is vulnerable to brute force attacks which may lead to denial-of-service (DoS) attacks. In this work, we present a new forwarding approach that keeps the advantages of Bloom filter-based forwarding while mitigates attacks on the forwarding mechanism. In practice, we introduce a special type of forwarding nodes called Edge-FW to be placed at the edge of the network. The role of these node is to add an extra security layer by validating and inspecting packets at the edge of the network against brute-force attacks and check whether the packet contains a legitimate forwarding identifier (FId) or not. We leverage Certificateless Aggregate Signature (CLAS) scheme with a small size of 64-bit which is used to sign the FId. Hence, this signature becomes bound to a specific FId. Therefore, malicious nodes that inject packets with random FIds will be easily detected and dropped at the Edge-FW node when the signature verification fails. Our preliminary security analysis suggests that with the proposed approach, the forwarding plane is able to resist attacks such as DoS with very high probability.

Keywords: bloom filter, certificateless aggregate signature, denial-of-service, information centric network

Procedia PDF Downloads 189
459 Comparison of GIS-Based Soil Erosion Susceptibility Models Using Support Vector Machine, Binary Logistic Regression and Artificial Neural Network in the Southwest Amazon Region

Authors: Elaine Lima Da Fonseca, Eliomar Pereira Da Silva Filho

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The modeling of areas susceptible to soil loss by hydro erosive processes consists of a simplified instrument of reality with the purpose of predicting future behaviors from the observation and interaction of a set of geoenvironmental factors. The models of potential areas for soil loss will be obtained through binary logistic regression, artificial neural networks, and support vector machines. The choice of the municipality of Colorado do Oeste in the south of the western Amazon is due to soil degradation due to anthropogenic activities, such as agriculture, road construction, overgrazing, deforestation, and environmental and socioeconomic configurations. Initially, a soil erosion inventory map constructed through various field investigations will be designed, including the use of remotely piloted aircraft, orbital imagery, and the PLANAFLORO/RO database. 100 sampling units with the presence of erosion will be selected based on the assumptions indicated in the literature, and, to complement the dichotomous analysis, 100 units with no erosion will be randomly designated. The next step will be the selection of the predictive parameters that exert, jointly, directly, or indirectly, some influence on the mechanism of occurrence of soil erosion events. The chosen predictors are altitude, declivity, aspect or orientation of the slope, curvature of the slope, composite topographic index, flow power index, lineament density, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, lithology, soil type, erosivity, and ground surface temperature. After evaluating the relative contribution of each predictor variable, the erosion susceptibility model will be applied to the municipality of Colorado do Oeste - Rondônia through the SPSS Statistic 26 software. Evaluation of the model will occur through the determination of the values of the R² of Cox & Snell and the R² of Nagelkerke, Hosmer and Lemeshow Test, Log Likelihood Value, and Wald Test, in addition to analysis of the Confounding Matrix, ROC Curve and Accumulated Gain according to the model specification. The validation of the synthesis map resulting from both models of the potential risk of soil erosion will occur by means of Kappa indices, accuracy, and sensitivity, as well as by field verification of the classes of susceptibility to erosion using drone photogrammetry. Thus, it is expected to obtain the mapping of the following classes of susceptibility to erosion very low, low, moderate, very high, and high, which may constitute a screening tool to identify areas where more detailed investigations need to be carried out, applying more efficient social resources.

Keywords: modeling, susceptibility to erosion, artificial intelligence, Amazon

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458 Effect of Genuine Missing Data Imputation on Prediction of Urinary Incontinence

Authors: Suzan Arslanturk, Mohammad-Reza Siadat, Theophilus Ogunyemi, Ananias Diokno

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Missing data is a common challenge in statistical analyses of most clinical survey datasets. A variety of methods have been developed to enable analysis of survey data to deal with missing values. Imputation is the most commonly used among the above methods. However, in order to minimize the bias introduced due to imputation, one must choose the right imputation technique and apply it to the correct type of missing data. In this paper, we have identified different types of missing values: missing data due to skip pattern (SPMD), undetermined missing data (UMD), and genuine missing data (GMD) and applied rough set imputation on only the GMD portion of the missing data. We have used rough set imputation to evaluate the effect of such imputation on prediction by generating several simulation datasets based on an existing epidemiological dataset (MESA). To measure how well each dataset lends itself to the prediction model (logistic regression), we have used p-values from the Wald test. To evaluate the accuracy of the prediction, we have considered the width of 95% confidence interval for the probability of incontinence. Both imputed and non-imputed simulation datasets were fit to the prediction model, and they both turned out to be significant (p-value < 0.05). However, the Wald score shows a better fit for the imputed compared to non-imputed datasets (28.7 vs. 23.4). The average confidence interval width was decreased by 10.4% when the imputed dataset was used, meaning higher precision. The results show that using the rough set method for missing data imputation on GMD data improve the predictive capability of the logistic regression. Further studies are required to generalize this conclusion to other clinical survey datasets.

Keywords: rough set, imputation, clinical survey data simulation, genuine missing data, predictive index

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457 The Impact of Hospital Strikes on Patient Care: Evidence from 135 Strikes in the Portuguese National Health System

Authors: Eduardo Costa

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Hospital strikes in the Portuguese National Health Service (NHS) are becoming increasingly frequent, raising concerns in what respects patient safety. In fact, data shows that mortality rates for patients admitted during strikes are up to 30% higher than for patients admitted in other days. This paper analyses the effects of hospital strikes on patients’ outcomes. Specifically, it analyzes the impact of different strikes (physicians, nurses and other health professionals), on in-hospital mortality rates, readmission rates and length of stay. The paper uses patient-level data containing all NHS hospital admissions in mainland Portugal from 2012 to 2017, together with a comprehensive strike dataset comprising over 250 strike days (19 physicians-strike days, 150 nurses-strike days and 50 other health professionals-strike days) from 135 different strikes. The paper uses a linear probability model and controls for hospital and regional characteristics, time trends, and changes in patients’ composition and diagnoses. Preliminary results suggest a 6-7% increase in in-hospital mortality rates for patients exposed to physicians’ strikes. The effect is smaller for patients exposed to nurses’ strikes (2-5%). Patients exposed to nurses strikes during their stay have, on average, higher 30-days urgent readmission rates (4%). Length of stay also seems to increase for patients exposed to any strike. Results – conditional on further testing, namely on non-linear models - suggest that hospital operations and service levels are partially disrupted during strikes.

Keywords: health sector strikes, in-hospital mortality rate, length of stay, readmission rate

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456 An Evaluation of the Effectiveness of the Juvenile Justice in Rehabilitating the Youth in South Africa

Authors: Leah Gwatimba, Nanga Raymond Raselekoane

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The incidences of youth who engage in unlawful or criminal activities are of great concern for the criminal justice system and government in South Africa. In terms of the juvenile justice system in South Africa, under-age youth who have been found guilty and sentenced to serve a jail term cannot be sent to the same detention facility as adults. The juvenile justice system is meant to protect young offenders from physical, emotional and mental exploitation by adult prisoners. Under-age young offenders should be assisted and exposed to educational, entrepreneurial and behavioral programmes that can equip them with the much needed skills that will turn them into law-abiding and economically productive citizens. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the justice system in South Africa in the rehabilitation young offenders. A qualitative method was used. The study used the non-probability purposive sampling to select the respondents. In-depth interviews, focus groups, observation and thematic coding were used to collect and analyse the data respectively. The study population consisted of social workers and offending youth. The sample comprised of 16 respondents (i.e. 4 social workers and twelve offending youth (6 males and 6 females). The study indicated that there is worrying recurrence of the anti-social behavior by some of the young offenders. According to this study, the effectiveness of the juvenile justice system in the rehabilitation of the offending youth can be achieved by paying serious attention to follow-up services, participation of families of the offending youth in the diversion programmes and by improving the socio-economic conditions in the homes and communities of the offending youth.

Keywords: juvenile delinquent, juvenile justice system, diversion programmes, rehabilitation, restorative justice

Procedia PDF Downloads 306