Search results for: loss distribution approach
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 20286

Search results for: loss distribution approach

10416 Between the ‘Principle of Hope’ and ‘Spiritual Booze’: An Analysis of Religious Themes in the Language Used by the Russian Marxists

Authors: George Bocean

Abstract:

In the mainstream academic spheres of thought, there is a tendency to associate the writings of Russian Marxists as being constantly against the practice of religion itself. Such arguments mainly stem from how the attitude of the Russian Marxists, specifically the Bolsheviks, towards the concept of religion supposedly originates from its own Marxist ideology. Although Marxism is critical of religion as an institution, the approach that Marxism would have on the question of religion is not as clear. Such aspect is specifically observed in the use of language of major leading Russian Marxist figures, such as Lenin and Trotsky, throughout the early 20th century, where the use of religious metaphors was widely used in their philosophical writings and speeches, as well as in propaganda posters of general left-wing movements in Russia as a whole. The methodology of the research will consist of a sociolinguistic and sociology of language approach within a sociohistorical framework of late Tsarist and early Soviet Russia, 1905-1926. The purpose of such approaches are not simply to point out the religious metaphors used in the writings and speeches of Marxists in Russia, but rather in order to analyse how the use of such metaphors represent an important socio-political connection with the context of Russia at the time. In other words, the use of religious metaphors was not only more akin to Russian culture at the time, but this also resonated and was more familiar with the conditions of the working class and peasantry. An example in this study can be observed in the writings of Lenin, where the theme of chudo (miracle) is often mentioned in his writings, and such a word is commonly associated with an idealist philosophy rather than a materialist one, which represents a common theme in Russian culture in regards to the principle of hope for a better life. A further and even more obvious example is Trotsky’s writings about how the revolution of 1905 “would be revived”, which not only resonates with the theme of resurrection, but also prophesises the “second coming” of a future revolution. Such metaphors are important in the writings of such authors, as they simultaneously contain Marxist ideas, as well as religious themes. In doing this research, this paper will demonstrate two aspects. Firstly, the paper will analyse the use of the metaphors by Russian Marxists as a whole in regards to a socio-political and ideological perspectives akin to those of Marxism. Secondly, it will also demonstrate the role that such metaphors have in regards to their impact on the left-wing movements within Russia itself, as well as their relation to the working class and peasantry of Russia within the historical context.

Keywords: language and politics, Marxism, Russian history, social history, sociology of language

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10415 Eating Constitutes Human Dignity: A Metaphysical Anthropology Perspective

Authors: Sri Poedjiastoeti

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One of the traits of living beings is eating. As the living beings, people must provide their life by taking material. They must assimilate for themselves with substances. They grow and develop themselves by changing what they eat and digest into their own substance. This happened in the so-called eating. This article aims to analyze distinction between human beings and other infrahumans when facing and eating food. It uses the analytical description with metaphysical anthropology approach. As a result, to give the expression that eating is not simply to put food in mouth, chew and swallow it. Eating constitutes a sacred ceremonial if it is done in accordance with human dignity. They face food with distance and moderation as well as civilize or make their behaviour better for it. Accordingly, they are being to be human.

Keywords: human beings, behaviour, eating, dignity

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10414 Applying Unmanned Aerial Vehicle on Agricultural Damage: A Case Study of the Meteorological Disaster on Taiwan Paddy Rice

Authors: Chiling Chen, Chiaoying Chou, Siyang Wu

Abstract:

Taiwan locates at the west of Pacific Ocean and intersects between continental and marine climate. Typhoons frequently strike Taiwan and come with meteorological disasters, i.e., heavy flooding, landslides, loss of life and properties, etc. Global climate change brings more extremely meteorological disasters. So, develop techniques to improve disaster prevention and mitigation is needed, to improve rescue processes and rehabilitations is important as well. In this study, UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) are applied to take instant images for improving the disaster investigation and rescue processes. Paddy rice fields in the central Taiwan are the study area. There have been attacked by heavy rain during the monsoon season in June 2016. UAV images provide the high ground resolution (3.5cm) with 3D Point Clouds to develop image discrimination techniques and digital surface model (DSM) on rice lodging. Firstly, image supervised classification with Maximum Likelihood Method (MLD) is used to delineate the area of rice lodging. Secondly, 3D point clouds generated by Pix4D Mapper are used to develop DSM for classifying the lodging levels of paddy rice. As results, discriminate accuracy of rice lodging is 85% by image supervised classification, and the classification accuracy of lodging level is 87% by DSM. Therefore, UAVs not only provide instant images of agricultural damage after the meteorological disaster, but the image discriminations on rice lodging also reach acceptable accuracy (>85%). In the future, technologies of UAVs and image discrimination will be applied to different crop fields. The results of image discrimination will be overlapped with administrative boundaries of paddy rice, to establish GIS-based assist system on agricultural damage discrimination. Therefore, the time and labor would be greatly reduced on damage detection and monitoring.

Keywords: Monsoon, supervised classification, Pix4D, 3D point clouds, discriminate accuracy

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10413 Experimental and Numerical Performance Analysis for Steam Jet Ejectors

Authors: Abdellah Hanafi, G. M. Mostafa, Mohamed Mortada, Ahmed Hamed

Abstract:

The steam ejectors are the heart of most of the desalination systems that employ vacuum. The systems that employ low grade thermal energy sources like solar energy and geothermal energy use the ejector to drive the system instead of high grade electric energy. The jet-ejector is used to create vacuum employing the flow of steam or air and using the severe pressure drop at the outlet of the main nozzle. The present work involves developing a one dimensional mathematical model for designing jet-ejectors and transform it into computer code using Engineering Equation solver (EES) software. The model receives the required operating conditions at the inlets and outlet of the ejector as inputs and produces the corresponding dimensions required to reach these conditions. The one-dimensional model has been validated using an existed model working on Abu-Qir power station. A prototype has been designed according to the one-dimensional model and attached to a special test bench to be tested before using it in the solar desalination pilot plant. The tested ejector will be responsible for the startup evacuation of the system and adjusting the vacuum of the evaporating effects. The tested prototype has shown a good agreement with the results of the code. In addition a numerical analysis has been applied on one of the designed geometry to give an image of the pressure and velocity distribution inside the ejector from a side, and from other side, to show the difference in results between the two-dimensional ideal gas model and real prototype. The commercial edition of ANSYS Fluent v.14 software is used to solve the two-dimensional axisymmetric case.

Keywords: solar energy, jet ejector, vacuum, evaporating effects

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10412 Enhancing Inhibition on Phytopathogens by Complex Using Biogas Slurry

Authors: Fang-Bo Yu, Li-Bo Guan, Sheng-Dao Shan

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Biogas slurry was mixed with six commercial fungicides and screening against 11 phytopathogens was carried out. Results showed that inhibition of biogas slurry was different for the test strains and no significant difference between treatments of Didymella bryoniae, Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. vasinfectum, Aspergillus niger, Rhizoctonia cerealis, F. graminearum and Septoria tritici was observed. However, significant differences were found among Penicillium sp., Botrytis cinerea, Alternaria sonali, F. oxysporum F. sp. melonis and Sclerotinia sclerotiorum. The approach described here presents a promising alternative to current manipulation although some issues still need further examination. This study could contribute to the development of sustainable agriculture and better utilization of biogas slurry.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, biogas slurry, phytopathogen, sustainable agriculture

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10411 The Fabrication and Characterization of a Honeycomb Ceramic Electric Heater with a Conductive Coating

Authors: Siming Wang, Qing Ni, Yu Wu, Ruihai Xu, Hong Ye

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Porous electric heaters, compared to conventional electric heaters, exhibit excellent heating performance due to their large specific surface area. Porous electric heaters employ porous metallic materials or conductive porous ceramics as the heating element. The former attains a low heating power with a fixed current due to the low electrical resistivity of metal. Although the latter can bypass the inherent challenges of porous metallic materials, the fabrication process of the conductive porous ceramics is complicated and high cost. This work proposed a porous ceramic electric heater with dielectric honeycomb ceramic as a substrate and surface conductive coating as a heating element. The conductive coating was prepared by the sol-gel method using silica sol and methyl trimethoxysilane as raw materials and graphite powder as conductive fillers. The conductive mechanism and degradation reason of the conductive coating was studied by electrical resistivity and thermal stability analysis. The heating performance of the proposed heater was experimentally investigated by heating air and deionized water. The results indicate that the electron transfer is achieved by forming the conductive network through the contact of the graphite flakes. With 30 wt% of graphite, the electrical resistivity of the conductive coating can be as low as 0.88 Ω∙cm. The conductive coating exhibits good electrical stability up to 500°C but degrades beyond 600°C due to the formation of many cracks in the coating caused by the weight loss and thermal expansion. The results also show that the working medium has a great influence on the volume power density of the heater. With air under natural convection as the working medium, the volume power density attains 640.85 kW/m3, which can be increased by 5 times when using deionized water as the working medium. The proposed honeycomb ceramic electric heater has the advantages of the simple fabrication method, low cost, and high volume power density, demonstrating great potential in the fluid heating field.

Keywords: conductive coating, honeycomb ceramic electric heater, high specific surface area, high volume power density

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10410 Your First Step to Understanding Research Ethics: Psychoneurolinguistic Approach

Authors: Sadeq Al Yaari, Ayman Al Yaari, Adham Al Yaari, Montaha Al Yaari, Aayah Al Yaari, Sajedah Al Yaari

Abstract:

Objective: This research aims at investigating the research ethics in the field of science. Method: It is an exploratory research wherein the researchers attempted to cover the phenomenon at hand from all specialists’ viewpoints. Results Discussion is based upon the findings resulted from the analysis the researcher undertook. Concerning the results’ prediction, the researcher needs first to seek highly qualified people in the field of research as well as in the field of statistics who share the philosophy of the research. Then s/he should make sure that s/he is adequately trained in the specific techniques, methods and statically programs that are used at the study. S/he should also believe in continually analysis for the data in the most current methods.

Keywords: research ethics, legal, rights, psychoneurolinguistics

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10409 Assessing the Potential of a Waste Material for Cement Replacement and the Effect of Its Fineness in Soft Soil Stabilisation

Authors: Hassnen M. Jafer, W. Atherton, F. Ruddock

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This paper represents the results of experimental work to investigate the suitability of a waste material (WM) for soft soil stabilisation. In addition, the effect of particle size distribution (PSD) of the waste material on its performance as a soil stabiliser was investigated. The WM used in this study is produced from the incineration processes in domestic energy power plant and it is available in two different grades of fineness (coarse waste material (CWM) and fine waste material (FWM)). An intermediate plasticity silty clayey soil with medium organic matter content has been used in this study. The suitability of the CWM and FWM to improve the physical and engineering properties of the selected soil was evaluated dependant on the results obtained from the consistency limits, compaction characteristics (optimum moisture content (OMC) and maximum dry density (MDD)); along with the unconfined compressive strength test (UCS). Different percentages of CWM were added to the soft soil (3, 6, 9, 12 and 15%) to produce various admixtures. Then the UCS test was carried out on specimens under different curing periods (zero, 7, 14, and 28 days) to find the optimum percentage of CWM. The optimum and other two percentages (either side of the optimum content) were used for FWM to evaluate the effect of the fineness of the WM on UCS of the stabilised soil. Results indicated that both types of the WM used in this study improved the physical properties of the soft soil where the index of plasticity (IP) was decreased significantly. IP was decreased from 21 to 13.64 and 13.10 with 12% of CWM and 15% of FWM respectively. The results of the unconfined compressive strength test indicated that 12% of CWM was the optimum and this percentage developed the UCS value from 202kPa to 500kPa for 28 days cured samples, which is equal, approximately 2.5 times the UCS value for untreated soil. Moreover, this percentage provided 1.4 times the value of UCS for stabilized soil-CWA by using FWM which recorded just under 700kPa after 28 days curing.

Keywords: soft soil stabilisation, waste materials, fineness, unconfined compressive strength

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10408 Geophysical Methods of Mapping Groundwater Aquifer System: Perspectives and Inferences From Lisana Area, Western Margin of the Central Main Ethiopian Rift

Authors: Esubalew Yehualaw Melaku, Tigistu Haile Eritro

Abstract:

In this study, two basic geophysical methods are applied for mapping the groundwater aquifer system in the Lisana area along the Guder River, northeast of Hosanna town, near the western margin of the Central Main Ethiopian Rift. The main target of the study is to map the potential aquifer zone and investigate the groundwater potential for current and future development of the resource in the Gode area. The geophysical methods employed in this study include, Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES) and magnetic survey techniques. Electrical sounding was used to examine and map the depth to the potential aquifer zone of the groundwater and its distribution over the area. On the other hand, a magnetic survey was used to delineate contact between lithologic units and geological structures. The 2D magnetic modeling and the geoelectric sections are used for the identification of weak zones, which control the groundwater flow and storage system. The geophysical survey comprises of twelve VES readings collected by using a Schlumberger array along six profile lines and more than four hundred (400) magnetic readings at about 10m station intervals along four profiles and 20m along three random profiles. The study result revealed that the potential aquifer in the area is obtained at a depth range from 45m to 92m. This is the response of the highly weathered/ fractured ignimbrite and pumice layer with sandy soil, which is the main water-bearing horizon. Overall, in the neighborhood of four VES points, VES- 2, VES- 3, VES-10, and VES-11, shows good water-bearing zones in the study area.

Keywords: vertical electrical sounding, magnetic survey, aquifer, groundwater potential

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10407 The Applicability of General Catholic Canon Law during the Ongoing Migration Crisis in Hungary

Authors: Lorand Ujhazi

Abstract:

The vast majority of existing canonical studies about migration are focused on examining the general pastoral and legal regulations of the Catholic Church. The weakness of this approach is that it ignores a number of important factors; like the financial, legal and personal circumstances of a particular church or the canonical position of certain organizations which actually look after the immigrants. This paper is a case study, which analyses the current and historical migration related policies and activities of the Catholic Church in Hungary. To achieve this goal the study uses canon law, historical publications, various instructions and communications issued by church superiors, Hungarian and foreign media reports and the relevant Hungarian legislation. The paper first examines how the Hungarian Catholic Church assisted migrants like Armenians fleeing from the Ottoman Empire, Poles escaping during the Second World War, East German and Romanian citizens in the 1980s and refugees from the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s. These events underline the importance of past historical experience in the development of contemporary pastoral and humanitarian policy of the Catholic Church in Hungary. Then the paper turns to the events of the ongoing crisis by describing the unique challenges faced by churches in transit countries like Hungary. Then the research contrasts these findings with the typical responsibilities of churches in countries which are popular destinations for immigrants. The next part of the case study focuses on the changes to the pre-crisis legal and canonical framework which influenced the actions of hierarchical and charity organizations in Hungary. Afterwards, the paper illustrates the dangers of operating in an unclear legal environment, where some charitable activities of the church like a fundraising campaign may be interpreted as a national security risk by state authorities. Then the paper presents the reactions of Hungarian academics to the current migration crisis and finally it offers some proposals how to improve parts of Canon Law which govern immigration. The conclusion of the paper is that during the formulation of the central refugee policy of the Catholic Church decision makers must take into consideration the peculiar circumstances of its particular churches. This approach may prevent disharmony between the existing central regulations, the policy of the Vatican and the operations of the local church organizations.

Keywords: canon law, Catholic Church, civil law, Hungary, immigration, national security

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10406 Multi-Channel Information Fusion in C-OTDR Monitoring Systems: Various Approaches to Classify of Targeted Events

Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev

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The paper presents new results concerning selection of optimal information fusion formula for ensembles of C-OTDR channels. The goal of information fusion is to create an integral classificator designed for effective classification of seismoacoustic target events. The LPBoost (LP-β and LP-B variants), the Multiple Kernel Learning, and Weighing of Inversely as Lipschitz Constants (WILC) approaches were compared. The WILC is a brand new approach to optimal fusion of Lipschitz Classifiers Ensembles. Results of practical usage are presented.

Keywords: Lipschitz Classifier, classifiers ensembles, LPBoost, C-OTDR systems

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10405 Impact of Unusual Dust Event on Regional Climate in India

Authors: Kanika Taneja, V. K. Soni, Kafeel Ahmad, Shamshad Ahmad

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A severe dust storm generated from a western disturbance over north Pakistan and adjoining Afghanistan affected the north-west region of India between May 28 and 31, 2014, resulting in significant reductions in air quality and visibility. The air quality of the affected region degraded drastically. PM10 concentration peaked at a very high value of around 1018 μgm-3 during dust storm hours of May 30, 2014 at New Delhi. The present study depicts aerosol optical properties monitored during the dust days using ground based multi-wavelength Sky radiometer over the National Capital Region of India. High Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) at 500 nm was observed as 1.356 ± 0.19 at New Delhi while Angstrom exponent (Alpha) dropped to 0.287 on May 30, 2014. The variation in the Single Scattering Albedo (SSA) and real n(λ) and imaginary k(λ) parts of the refractive index indicated that the dust event influences the optical state to be more absorbing. The single scattering albedo, refractive index, volume size distribution and asymmetry parameter (ASY) values suggested that dust aerosols were predominant over the anthropogenic aerosols in the urban environment of New Delhi. The large reduction in the radiative flux at the surface level caused significant cooling at the surface. Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing (DARF) was calculated using a radiative transfer model during the dust period. A consistent increase in surface cooling was evident, ranging from -31 Wm-2 to -82 Wm-2 and an increase in heating of the atmosphere from 15 Wm-2 to 92 Wm-2 and -2 Wm-2 to 10 Wm-2 at top of the atmosphere.

Keywords: aerosol optical properties, dust storm, radiative transfer model, sky radiometer

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10404 An Interactive User-Oriented Approach to Optimizing Public Space Lighting

Authors: Tamar Trop, Boris Portnov

Abstract:

Public Space Lighting (PSL) of outdoor urban areas promotes comfort, defines spaces and neighborhood identities, enhances perceived safety and security, and contributes to residential satisfaction and wellbeing. However, if excessive or misdirected, PSL leads to unnecessary energy waste and increased greenhouse gas emissions, poses a non-negligible threat to the nocturnal environment, and may become a potential health hazard. At present, PSL is designed according to international, regional, and national standards, which consolidate best practice. Yet, knowledge regarding the optimal light characteristics needed for creating a perception of personal comfort and safety in densely populated residential areas, and the factors associated with this perception, is still scarce. The presented study suggests a paradigm shift in designing PSL towards a user-centered approach, which incorporates pedestrians' perspectives into the process. The study is an ongoing joint research project between China and Israel Ministries of Science and Technology. Its main objectives are to reveal inhabitants' perceptions of and preferences for PSL in different densely populated neighborhoods in China and Israel, and to develop a model that links instrumentally measured parameters of PSL (e.g., intensity, spectra and glare) with its perceived comfort and quality, while controlling for three groups of attributes: locational, temporal, and individual. To investigate measured and perceived PSL, the study employed various research methods and data collection tools, developed a location-based mobile application, and used multiple data sources, such as satellite multi-spectral night-time light imagery, census statistics, and detailed planning schemes. One of the study’s preliminary findings is that higher sense of safety in the investigated neighborhoods is not associated with higher levels of light intensity. This implies potential for energy saving in brightly illuminated residential areas. Study findings might contribute to the design of a smart and adaptive PSL strategy that enhances pedestrians’ perceived safety and comfort while reducing light pollution and energy consumption.

Keywords: energy efficiency, light pollution, public space lighting, PSL, safety perceptions

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10403 Causes of Pokir in the Budgeting Process: Case Study in the Province of Jakarta, Indonesia

Authors: Tri Nopiyanto, Rahardhyani Dwiannisa, Arief Ismaryanto

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One main issue for a certain region in order to achieve development is if the government that consists of the executive, legislative and judicial board are able to work together. However, there are certain conditions that these boards are the sources of conflict, especially between the executive and legislative board. One of the example of the conflict is between the Local Government and Legislative Board (DPRD) in the Province of Jakarta in 2015. The cause of this conflict is because of the occurrence of pokir (pokok pikiran or ideas of budgeting). Pokir is driven by a budgeting plan that is arranged by DPRD that is supposed to be sourced from the aspiration of the people and delivered 5 months before the legalization of Local Government Budget (APBD), but the current condition in Jakarta is that pokir is a project by DPRD members itself and delivered just 3 days before the legalization in order to facilitate the interests of the members of the legislative. This paper discusses how pokir happens and what factors caused it. This paper uses political budgeting theory by Andy Norton and Diane Elson to analyze the issue. The method used in this paper is qualitative to collect the data and solve the problem of this research. The methods involved are in depth interview, experimental questionnaire, and literature studies. Results of this research are that Pokir occurs because of the distribution of power among DPRD members, between parties, executive, and legislative board. Beside that, Pokir also occurs because of the lack of the people’s participation in budgeting process and monitoring. Other than that, this paper also found that pokir also happens because of the budgeting system that is not able to provide a clean budgeting process, so it enables the creation of certain slots to add pokir into the budgets. Pokir also affects the development of Jakarta that goes through stagnation. This research recommends the implementation of e-budgeting to prevent the occurrence of pokir itself in the Province of Jakarta.

Keywords: legislative and executive board, Jakarta, political budgeting, Pokir

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10402 The Strategic Importance of Technology in the International Production: Beyond the Global Value Chains Approach

Authors: Marcelo Pereira Introini

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The global value chains (GVC) approach contributes to a better understanding of the international production organization amid globalization’s second unbundling from the 1970s on. Mainly due to the tools that help to understand the importance of critical competences, technological capabilities, and functions performed by each player, GVC research flourished in recent years, rooted in discussing the possibilities of integration and repositioning along regional and global value chains. Regarding this context, part of the literature endorsed a more optimistic view that engaging in fragmented production networks could represent learning opportunities for developing countries’ firms, since the relationship with transnational corporations could allow them build skills and competences. Increasing recognition that GVCs are based on asymmetric power relations provided another sight about benefits, costs, and development possibilities though. Once leading companies tend to restrict the replication of their technologies and capabilities by their suppliers, alternative strategies beyond the functional specialization, seen as a way to integrate value chains, began to be broadly highlighted. This paper organizes a coherent narrative about the shortcomings of the GVC analytical framework, while recognizing its multidimensional contributions and recent developments. We adopt two different and complementary perspectives to explore the idea of integration in the international production. On one hand, we emphasize obstacles beyond production components, analyzing the role played by intangible assets and intellectual property regimes. On the other hand, we consider the importance of domestic production and innovation systems for technological development. In order to provide a deeper understanding of the restrictions on technological learning of developing countries’ firms, we firstly build from the notion of intellectual monopoly to analyze how flagship companies can prevent subordinated firms from improving their positions in fragmented production networks. Based on intellectual property protection regimes we discuss the increasing asymmetries between these players and the decreasing access of part of them to strategic intangible assets. Second, we debate the role of productive-technological ecosystems and of interactive and systemic technological development processes, as concepts of the Innovation Systems approach. Supporting the idea that not only endogenous advantages are important for international competition of developing countries’ firms, but also that the building of these advantages itself can be a source of technological learning, we focus on local efforts as a crucial element, which is not replaceable for technology imported from abroad. Finally, the paper contributes to the discussion about technological development as a two-dimensional dynamic. If GVC analysis tends to underline a company-based perspective, stressing the learning opportunities associated to GVC integration, historical involvement of national States brings up the debate about technology as a central aspect of interstate disputes. In this sense, technology is seen as part of military modernization before being also used in civil contexts, what presupposes its role for national security and productive autonomy strategies. From this outlook, it is important to consider it as an asset that, incorporated in sophisticated machinery, can be the target of state policies besides the protection provided by intellectual property regimes, such as in export controls and inward-investment restrictions.

Keywords: global value chains, innovation systems, intellectual monopoly, technological development

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10401 Structuring Highly Iterative Product Development Projects by Using Agile-Indicators

Authors: Guenther Schuh, Michael Riesener, Frederic Diels

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Nowadays, manufacturing companies are faced with the challenge of meeting heterogeneous customer requirements in short product life cycles with a variety of product functions. So far, some of the functional requirements remain unknown until late stages of the product development. A way to handle these uncertainties is the highly iterative product development (HIP) approach. By structuring the development project as a highly iterative process, this method provides customer oriented and marketable products. There are first approaches for combined, hybrid models comprising deterministic-normative methods like the Stage-Gate process and empirical-adaptive development methods like SCRUM on a project management level. However, almost unconsidered is the question, which development scopes can preferably be realized with either empirical-adaptive or deterministic-normative approaches. In this context, a development scope constitutes a self-contained section of the overall development objective. Therefore, this paper focuses on a methodology that deals with the uncertainty of requirements within the early development stages and the corresponding selection of the most appropriate development approach. For this purpose, internal influencing factors like a company’s technology ability, the prototype manufacturability and the potential solution space as well as external factors like the market accuracy, relevance and volatility will be analyzed and combined into an Agile-Indicator. The Agile-Indicator is derived in three steps. First of all, it is necessary to rate each internal and external factor in terms of the importance for the overall development task. Secondly, each requirement has to be evaluated for every single internal and external factor appropriate to their suitability for empirical-adaptive development. Finally, the total sums of internal and external side are composed in the Agile-Indicator. Thus, the Agile-Indicator constitutes a company-specific and application-related criterion, on which the allocation of empirical-adaptive and deterministic-normative development scopes can be made. In a last step, this indicator will be used for a specific clustering of development scopes by application of the fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering algorithm. The FCM-method determines sub-clusters within functional clusters based on the empirical-adaptive environmental impact of the Agile-Indicator. By means of the methodology presented in this paper, it is possible to classify requirements, which are uncertainly carried out by the market, into empirical-adaptive or deterministic-normative development scopes.

Keywords: agile, highly iterative development, agile-indicator, product development

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10400 Infrastructure Sharing Synergies: Optimal Capacity Oversizing and Pricing

Authors: Robin Molinier

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Industrial symbiosis (I.S) deals with both substitution synergies (exchange of waste materials, fatal energy and utilities as resources for production) and infrastructure/service sharing synergies. The latter is based on the intensification of use of an asset and thus requires to balance capital costs increments with snowball effects (network externalities) for its implementation. Initial investors must specify ex-ante arrangements (cost sharing and pricing schedule) to commit toward investments in capacities and transactions. Our model investigate the decision of 2 actors trying to choose cooperatively a level of infrastructure capacity oversizing to set a plug-and-play offer to a potential entrant whose capacity requirement is randomly distributed while satisficing their own requirements. Capacity cost exhibits sub-additive property so that there is room for profitable overcapacity setting in the first period. The entrant’s willingness-to-pay for the access to the infrastructure is dependent upon its standalone cost and the capacity gap that it must complete in case the available capacity is insufficient ex-post (the complement cost). Since initial capacity choices are driven by ex-ante (expected) yield extractible from the entrant we derive the expected complement cost function which helps us defining the investors’ objective function. We first show that this curve is decreasing and convex in the capacity increments and that it is shaped by the distribution function of the potential entrant’s requirements. We then derive the general form of solutions and solve the model for uniform and triangular distributions. Depending on requirements volumes and cost assumptions different equilibria occurs. We finally analyze the effect of a per-unit subsidy a public actor would apply to foster such sharing synergies.

Keywords: capacity, cooperation, industrial symbiosis, pricing

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10399 Use of Social Media in PR: A Change of Trend

Authors: Tang Mui Joo, Chan Eang Teng

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The use of social media has become more defined. It has been widely used for the purpose of business. More marketers are now using social media as tools to enhance their businesses. Whereas on the other hand, there are more and more people spending their time through mobile apps to be engaged in the social media sites like YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and others. Social media has even become common in Public Relations (PR). It has become number one platform for creating and sharing content. In view to this, social media has changed the rules in PR where it brings new challenges and opportunities to the profession. Although corporate websites, chat-rooms, email customer response facilities and electronic news release distribution are now viewed as standard aspects of PR practice, many PR practitioners are still struggling with the impact of new media though the implementation of social media is potentially reducing the cost of communication. It is to the point that PR practitioners are not fully embracing new media, they are ill-equipped to do so and they have a fear of the technology. Somehow that social media has become a new style of communication that is characterized by conversation and community. It has become a platform that allows individuals to interact with one another and build relationship among each other. Therefore, in the use of business world, consumers are able to interact with those companies that have joined any social media. Based on their experiences with social networking site interactions, they are also exposed to personal interaction while communicating. This paper is to study the impact of social media to PR. This paper discovers the potential changes of PR practices in a developing country like Malaysia. Eventually the study reflects on how PR practitioners are actually using social media in the country. This paper is based on two theories in its development of this research foundation. Media Ecology Theory is to support the impact and changes to PR. Social Penetration Theory is to reflect on how the use of social media is among PRs. This research is using survey with PR practitioners in its data collection. The results have shown that PR professionals value social media more than they actually use it and the way of organizations communicate had been changed due to the transformation of social media.

Keywords: new media, social media, PR, change of trend, communication, digital culture

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10398 Study on the Impact of Power Fluctuation, Hydrogen Utilization, and Fuel Cell Stack Orientation on the Performance Sensitivity of PEM Fuel Cell

Authors: Majid Ali, Xinfang Jin, Victor Eniola, Henning Hoene

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The performance of proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells is sensitive to several factors, including power fluctuations, hydrogen utilization, and the quality orientation of the fuel cell stack. In this study, we investigate the impact of these factors on the performance of a PEM fuel cell. We start by analyzing the power fluctuations that are typical in renewable energy systems and their effects on the 50 Watt fuel cell's performance. Next, we examine the hydrogen utilization rate (0-1000 mL/min) and its impact on the cell's efficiency and durability. Finally, we investigate the quality orientation (three different positions) of the fuel cell stack, which can significantly affect the cell's lifetime and overall performance. The basis of our analysis is the utilization of experimental results, which have been further validated by comparing them with simulations and manufacturer results. Our results indicate that power fluctuations can cause significant variations in the fuel cell's voltage and current, leading to a reduction in its performance. Moreover, we show that increasing the hydrogen utilization rate beyond a certain threshold can lead to a decrease in the fuel cell's efficiency. Finally, our analysis demonstrates that the orientation of the fuel cell stack can affect its performance and lifetime due to non-uniform distribution of reactants and products. In summary, our study highlights the importance of considering power fluctuations, hydrogen utilization, and quality orientation in designing and optimizing PEM fuel cell systems. The findings of this study can be useful for researchers and engineers working on the development of fuel cell systems for various applications, including transportation, stationary power generation, and portable devices.

Keywords: fuel cell, proton exchange membrane, renewable energy, power fluctuation, experimental

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10397 Factors Affecting Special Core Analysis Resistivity Parameters

Authors: Hassan Sbiga

Abstract:

Laboratory measurements methods were undertaken on core samples selected from three different fields (A, B, and C) from the Nubian Sandstone Formation of the central graben reservoirs in Libya. These measurements were conducted in order to determine the factors which affect resistivity parameters, and to investigate the effect of rock heterogeneity and wettability on these parameters. This included determining the saturation exponent (n) in the laboratory at two stages. The first stage was before wettability measurements were conducted on the samples, and the second stage was after the wettability measurements in order to find any effect on the saturation exponent. Another objective of this work was to quantify experimentally pores and porosity types (macro- and micro-porosity), which have an affect on the electrical properties, by integrating capillary pressure curves with other routine and special core analysis. These experiments were made for the first time to obtain a relation between pore size distribution and saturation exponent n. Changes were observed in the formation resistivity factor and cementation exponent due to ambient conditions and changes of overburden pressure. The cementation exponent also decreased from GHE-5 to GHE-8. Changes were also observed in the saturation exponent (n) and water saturation (Sw) before and after wettability measurement. Samples with an oil-wet tendency have higher irreducible brine saturation and higher Archie saturation exponent values than samples with an uniform water-wet surface. The experimental results indicate that there is a good relation between resistivity and pore type depending on the pore size. When oil begins to penetrate micro-pore systems in measurements of resistivity index versus brine saturation (after wettability measurement), a significant change in slope of the resistivity index relationship occurs.

Keywords: part of thesis, cementation, wettability, resistivity

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10396 A Comparative Study of Sampling-Based Uncertainty Propagation with First Order Error Analysis and Percentile-Based Optimization

Authors: M. Gulam Kibria, Shourav Ahmed, Kais Zaman

Abstract:

In system analysis, the information on the uncertain input variables cause uncertainty in the system responses. Different probabilistic approaches for uncertainty representation and propagation in such cases exist in the literature. Different uncertainty representation approaches result in different outputs. Some of the approaches might result in a better estimation of system response than the other approaches. The NASA Langley Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge (MUQC) has posed challenges about uncertainty quantification. Subproblem A, the uncertainty characterization subproblem, of the challenge posed is addressed in this study. In this subproblem, the challenge is to gather knowledge about unknown model inputs which have inherent aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in them with responses (output) of the given computational model. We use two different methodologies to approach the problem. In the first methodology we use sampling-based uncertainty propagation with first order error analysis. In the other approach we place emphasis on the use of Percentile-Based Optimization (PBO). The NASA Langley MUQC’s subproblem A is developed in such a way that both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties need to be managed. The challenge problem classifies each uncertain parameter as belonging to one the following three types: (i) An aleatory uncertainty modeled as a random variable. It has a fixed functional form and known coefficients. This uncertainty cannot be reduced. (ii) An epistemic uncertainty modeled as a fixed but poorly known physical quantity that lies within a given interval. This uncertainty is reducible. (iii) A parameter might be aleatory but sufficient data might not be available to adequately model it as a single random variable. For example, the parameters of a normal variable, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, might not be precisely known but could be assumed to lie within some intervals. It results in a distributional p-box having the physical parameter with an aleatory uncertainty, but the parameters prescribing its mathematical model are subjected to epistemic uncertainties. Each of the parameters of the random variable is an unknown element of a known interval. This uncertainty is reducible. From the study, it is observed that due to practical limitations or computational expense, the sampling is not exhaustive in sampling-based methodology. That is why the sampling-based methodology has high probability of underestimating the output bounds. Therefore, an optimization-based strategy to convert uncertainty described by interval data into a probabilistic framework is necessary. This is achieved in this study by using PBO.

Keywords: aleatory uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, first order error analysis, uncertainty quantification, percentile-based optimization

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10395 Carotenoid Bioaccessibility: Effects of Food Matrix and Excipient Foods

Authors: Birgul Hizlar, Sibel Karakaya

Abstract:

Recently, increasing attention has been given to carotenoid bioaccessibility and bioavailability in the field of nutrition research. As a consequence of their lipophilic nature and their specific localization in plant-based tissues, carotenoid bioaccessibility and bioavailability is generally quite low in raw fruits and vegetables, since carotenoids need to be released from the cellular matrix and incorporated in the lipid fraction during digestion before being absorbed. Today’s approach related to improving the bioaccessibility is to design food matrix. Recently, the newest approach, excipient food, has been introduced to improve the bioavailability of orally administered bioactive compounds. The main idea is combining food and another food (the excipient food) whose composition and/or structure is specifically designed for improving health benefits. In this study, effects of food processing, food matrix and the addition of excipient foods on the carotenoid bioaccessibility of carrots were determined. Different excipient foods (olive oil, lemon juice and whey curd) and different food matrices (grating, boiling and mashing) were used. Total carotenoid contents of the grated, boiled and mashed carrots were 57.23, 51.11 and 62.10 μg/g respectively. No significant differences among these values indicated that these treatments had no effect on the release of carotenoids from the food matrix. Contrary to, changes in the food matrix, especially mashing caused significant increase in the carotenoid bioaccessibility. Although the carotenoid bioaccessibility was 10.76% in grated carrots, this value was 18.19% in mashed carrots (p<0.05). Addition of olive oil and lemon juice as excipients into the grated carrots caused 1.23 times and 1.67 times increase in the carotenoid content and the carotenoid bioaccessibility respectively. However, addition of the excipient foods in the boiled carrot samples did not influence the release of carotenoid from the food matrix. Whereas, up to 1.9 fold increase in the carotenoid bioaccessibility was determined by the addition of the excipient foods into the boiled carrots. The bioaccessibility increased from 14.20% to 27.12% by the addition of olive oil, lemon juice and whey curd. The highest carotenoid content among mashed carrots was found in the mashed carrots incorporated with olive oil and lemon juice. This combination also caused a significant increase in the carotenoid bioaccessibility from 18.19% to 29.94% (p<0.05). When compared the results related with the effect of the treatments on the carotenoid bioaccessibility, mashed carrots containing olive oil, lemon juice and whey curd had the highest carotenoid bioaccessibility. The increase in the bioaccessibility was approximately 81% when compared to grated and mashed samples containing olive oil, lemon juice and whey curd. In conclusion, these results demonstrated that the food matrix and addition of the excipient foods had a significant effect on the carotenoid content and the carotenoid bioaccessibility.

Keywords: carrot, carotenoids, excipient foods, food matrix

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10394 A Numerical Study on Micromechanical Aspects in Short Fiber Composites

Authors: I. Ioannou, I. M. Gitman

Abstract:

This study focused on the contribution of micro-mechanical parameters on the macro-mechanical response of short fiber composites, namely polypropylene matrix reinforced by glass fibers. In the framework of this paper, an attention has been given to the glass fibers length, as micromechanical parameter influences the overall macroscopic material’s behavior. Three dimensional numerical models were developed and analyzed through the concept of a Representative Volume Element (RVE). Results of the RVE-based approach were compared with analytical Halpin-Tsai’s model.

Keywords: effective properties, homogenization, representative volume element, short fiber reinforced composites

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10393 Evaluation of the CRISP-DM Business Understanding Step: An Approach for Assessing the Predictive Power of Regression versus Classification for the Quality Prediction of Hydraulic Test Results

Authors: Christian Neunzig, Simon Fahle, Jürgen Schulz, Matthias Möller, Bernd Kuhlenkötter

Abstract:

Digitalisation in production technology is a driver for the application of machine learning methods. Through the application of predictive quality, the great potential for saving necessary quality control can be exploited through the data-based prediction of product quality and states. However, the serial use of machine learning applications is often prevented by various problems. Fluctuations occur in real production data sets, which are reflected in trends and systematic shifts over time. To counteract these problems, data preprocessing includes rule-based data cleaning, the application of dimensionality reduction techniques, and the identification of comparable data subsets to extract stable features. Successful process control of the target variables aims to centre the measured values around a mean and minimise variance. Competitive leaders claim to have mastered their processes. As a result, much of the real data has a relatively low variance. For the training of prediction models, the highest possible generalisability is required, which is at least made more difficult by this data availability. The implementation of a machine learning application can be interpreted as a production process. The CRoss Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) is a process model with six phases that describes the life cycle of data science. As in any process, the costs to eliminate errors increase significantly with each advancing process phase. For the quality prediction of hydraulic test steps of directional control valves, the question arises in the initial phase whether a regression or a classification is more suitable. In the context of this work, the initial phase of the CRISP-DM, the business understanding, is critically compared for the use case at Bosch Rexroth with regard to regression and classification. The use of cross-process production data along the value chain of hydraulic valves is a promising approach to predict the quality characteristics of workpieces. Suitable methods for leakage volume flow regression and classification for inspection decision are applied. Impressively, classification is clearly superior to regression and achieves promising accuracies.

Keywords: classification, CRISP-DM, machine learning, predictive quality, regression

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10392 IT-Based Global Healthcare Delivery System: An Alternative Global Healthcare Delivery System

Authors: Arvind Aggarwal

Abstract:

We have developed a comprehensive global healthcare delivery System based on information technology. It has medical consultation system where a virtual consultant can give medical consultation to the patients and Doctors at the digital medical centre after reviewing the patient’s EMR file consisting of patient’s history, investigations in the voice, images and data format. The system has the surgical operation system too, where a remote robotic consultant can conduct surgery at the robotic surgical centre. The instant speech and text translation is incorporated in the software where the patient’s speech and text (language) can be translated into the consultant’s language and vice versa. A consultant of any specialty (surgeon or Physician) based in any country can provide instant health care consultation, to any patient in any country without loss of time. Robotic surgeons based in any country in a tertiary care hospital can perform remote robotic surgery, through patient friendly telemedicine and tele-surgical centres. The patient EMR, financial data and data of all the consultants and robotic surgeons shall be stored in cloud. It is a complete comprehensive business model with healthcare medical and surgical delivery system. The whole system is self-financing and can be implemented in any country. The entire system uses paperless, filmless techniques. This eliminates the use of all consumables thereby reduces substantial cost which is incurred by consumables. The consultants receive virtual patients, in the form of EMR, thus the consultant saves time and expense to travel to the hospital to see the patients. The consultant gets electronic file ready for reporting & diagnosis. Hence time spent on the physical examination of the patient is saved, the consultant can, therefore, spend quality time in studying the EMR/virtual patient and give his instant advice. The time consumed per patient is reduced and therefore can see more number of patients, the cost of the consultation per patients is therefore reduced. The additional productivity of the consultants can be channelized to serve rural patients devoid of doctors.

Keywords: e-health, telemedicine, telecare, IT-based healthcare

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10391 Evidence Theory Enabled Quickest Change Detection Using Big Time-Series Data from Internet of Things

Authors: Hossein Jafari, Xiangfang Li, Lijun Qian, Alexander Aved, Timothy Kroecker

Abstract:

Traditionally in sensor networks and recently in the Internet of Things, numerous heterogeneous sensors are deployed in distributed manner to monitor a phenomenon that often can be model by an underlying stochastic process. The big time-series data collected by the sensors must be analyzed to detect change in the stochastic process as quickly as possible with tolerable false alarm rate. However, sensors may have different accuracy and sensitivity range, and they decay along time. As a result, the big time-series data collected by the sensors will contain uncertainties and sometimes they are conflicting. In this study, we present a framework to take advantage of Evidence Theory (a.k.a. Dempster-Shafer and Dezert-Smarandache Theories) capabilities of representing and managing uncertainty and conflict to fast change detection and effectively deal with complementary hypotheses. Specifically, Kullback-Leibler divergence is used as the similarity metric to calculate the distances between the estimated current distribution with the pre- and post-change distributions. Then mass functions are calculated and related combination rules are applied to combine the mass values among all sensors. Furthermore, we applied the method to estimate the minimum number of sensors needed to combine, so computational efficiency could be improved. Cumulative sum test is then applied on the ratio of pignistic probability to detect and declare the change for decision making purpose. Simulation results using both synthetic data and real data from experimental setup demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented schemes.

Keywords: CUSUM, evidence theory, kl divergence, quickest change detection, time series data

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10390 Forest Harvesting Policies and Practices in Tropical Forest of Terengganu, Malaysia: Industry Experiences

Authors: Mohd Zaki Hamzah, Roslan Rani, Ahmad Bazli Razali, Satiful Bahri Mamat, Abdul Hadi Ripin, Mohd Harun Esa

Abstract:

Ever since 1901, forest management and silviculture practices in Malaysia have been frequently reviewed and updated to take into account changes in forest conditions, markets, timber demand/supply and technical advances that can be achieved in industrial processes, logging and forest harvesting, and currently, the forest management system practiced in Peninsular Malaysia is the Selective Management System (SMS) which was introduced in 1978. This system requires the selection of management regime (felling) based on Pre-Felling Forest Inventory (Pre-F) data to ensure economical harvesting and also ensuring adequate standing stands for subsequent rounds of felling, while maintaining ecological balance and environmental quality. SMS regulates forest harvesting through area and volume controls, with the cutting cycle 30 years. Most of the forest management units (FMU) (in Peninsular Malaysia) implementing SMS have been certified by Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) and/or Program for Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC), and one such FMU belongs to Kumpulan Pengurusan Kayu Kayan Terengganu (KPKKT). KPKKT, a timber management subsidiary of Golden Pharos Berhad (GPB), adopts the SMS to manage its 108,900 ha of timber concessionary areas in its role as logs’ supplier for the consumption of three subsidiaries of GPB. KPKKT is also responsible for the sustainable development and management of its concession in accordance with the Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) standards to ensure that it addresses the loss of forest cover and forest degradation, forest-based economic, social and environmental benefits, and ecologically protecting forests while mobilising financial resources for the implementation of sustainable forest management planning, harvesting, monitoring and the marketing of products. This paper will detail out the management and harvesting guidelines imposed by the controlling government agency, and harvesting processes taken by KPKKT to comply with guidelines and eventually supplying timber to the relevant subsidiaries (downstream mills under GPB).

Keywords: sustainable forest management, silviculture, reduce impact logging, forest certification

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10389 In Vivo Investigation of microRNA Expression and Function at the Mammalian Synapse by AGO-APP

Authors: Surbhi Surbhi, Andrea Erni, Gunter Meister, Harold Cremer, Christophe Beclin

Abstract:

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short 20-23 nucleotide long non-coding RNAs; there are 2605 miRNA in humans and 1936 miRNA in mouse in total (miRBase). The nervous system expresses the most abundant miRNA and most diverse. MiRNAs play a role in many steps during neurogenesis, like cell proliferation, differentiation, neural patterning, axon pathfinding, etc. Moreover, in vitro studies suggested a role in the regulation of local translation at the synapse, thus controlling neuronal plasticity. However, due to the specific structure of miRNA molecules, an in-vivo confirmation of the general role of miRNAs in the control of neuronal plasticity is still pending. For example, their small size and their high level of sequence homology make difficult the analysis of their cellular and sub-cellular localization in-vivo by in-situ hybridization. Moreover, it was found that only 40% of the expressed miRNA molecules in a cell are included in RNA-Induced Silencing Complexes (RISC) and, therefore, involved in inhibitory interactions while the rest is silent. Definitively, the development of new tools is needed to have a better understanding of the cellular function of miRNAs, in particular their role in neuronal plasticity. Here we describe a new technique called in-vivo AGO-APP designed to investigate miRNA expression and function in-vivo. This technique is based on the expression of a small peptide derived from the human RISC-complex protein TNRC6B, called T6B, which binds all known Argonaute (Ago) proteins with high affinity allowing the efficient immunoprecipitation of AGO-bound miRNAs. We have generated two transgenic mouse lines conditionally expressing T6B either ubiquitously in the cell or targeted at the synapse. A comparison of the repertoire of miRNAs immuno-precipitated from mature neurons of both mouse lines will provide us with a list of miRNAs showing a specific activity at the synapse. The physiological role of these miRNAs will be subsequently addressed through gain and loss of function experiments.

Keywords: RNA-induced silencing complexes, TNRC6B, miRNA, argonaute, synapse, neuronal plasticity, neurogenesis

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10388 Aggregation of Electric Vehicles for Emergency Frequency Regulation of Two-Area Interconnected Grid

Authors: S. Agheb, G. Ledwich, G.Walker, Z.Tong

Abstract:

Frequency control has become more of concern for reliable operation of interconnected power systems due to the integration of low inertia renewable energy sources to the grid and their volatility. Also, in case of a sudden fault, the system has less time to recover before widespread blackouts. Electric Vehicles (EV)s have the potential to cooperate in the Emergency Frequency Regulation (EFR) by a nonlinear control of the power system in case of large disturbances. The time is not adequate to communicate with each individual EV on emergency cases, and thus, an aggregate model is necessary for a quick response to prevent from much frequency deviation and the occurrence of any blackout. In this work, an aggregate of EVs is modelled as a big virtual battery in each area considering various aspects of uncertainty such as the number of connected EVs and their initial State of Charge (SOC) as stochastic variables. A control law was proposed and applied to the aggregate model using Lyapunov energy function to maximize the rate of reduction of total kinetic energy in a two-area network after the occurrence of a fault. The control methods are primarily based on the charging/ discharging control of available EVs as shunt capacity in the distribution system. Three different cases were studied considering the locational aspect of the model with the virtual EV either in the center of the two areas or in the corners. The simulation results showed that EVs could help the generator lose its kinetic energy in a short time after a contingency. Earlier estimation of possible contributions of EVs can help the supervisory control level to transmit a prompt control signal to the subsystems such as the aggregator agents and the grid. Thus, the percentage of EVs contribution for EFR will be characterized in the future as the goal of this study.

Keywords: emergency frequency regulation, electric vehicle, EV, aggregation, Lyapunov energy function

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10387 Review of Downscaling Methods in Climate Change and Their Role in Hydrological Studies

Authors: Nishi Bhuvandas, P. V. Timbadiya, P. L. Patel, P. D. Porey

Abstract:

Recent perceived climate variability raises concerns with unprecedented hydrological phenomena and extremes. Distribution and circulation of the waters of the Earth become increasingly difficult to determine because of additional uncertainty related to anthropogenic emissions. According to the sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Technical Paper on Climate Change and water, changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle have been related to an increase in the observed temperature over several decades. Although many previous research carried on effect of change in climate on hydrology provides a general picture of possible hydrological global change, new tools and frameworks for modelling hydrological series with nonstationary characteristics at finer scales, are required for assessing climate change impacts. Of the downscaling techniques, dynamic downscaling is usually based on the use of Regional Climate Models (RCMs), which generate finer resolution output based on atmospheric physics over a region using General Circulation Model (GCM) fields as boundary conditions. However, RCMs are not expected to capture the observed spatial precipitation extremes at a fine cell scale or at a basin scale. Statistical downscaling derives a statistical or empirical relationship between the variables simulated by the GCMs, called predictors, and station-scale hydrologic variables, called predictands. The main focus of the paper is on the need for using statistical downscaling techniques for projection of local hydrometeorological variables under climate change scenarios. The projections can be then served as a means of input source to various hydrologic models to obtain streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and other hydrological variables of interest.

Keywords: climate change, downscaling, GCM, RCM

Procedia PDF Downloads 392