Search results for: operational risk

Authors: Frederic Jumelle, Kelvin So, Didan Deng

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A method and system for neuropsychological performance test, comprising a mobile terminal, used to interact with a cloud server which stores user information and is logged into by the user through the terminal device; the user information is directly accessed through the terminal device and is processed by artificial neural network, and the user information comprises user facial emotions information, performance test answers information and user chronometrics. This assessment is used to evaluate the cognitive performance and emotional response of the subject to a series of dichotomous questions describing various situations of daily life and challenging the users' knowledge, values, ethics, and principles. In industrial applications, the timing of this assessment will depend on the users' need to obtain a service from a provider, such as opening a bank account, getting a mortgage or an insurance policy, authenticating clearance at work, or securing online payments.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, neurofinance, neuropsychology, risk management

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Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara

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This paper using standard GARCH, EGARCH, and TARCH models on day of the week return series (of 246 days) from the Nigerian Stock market estimated the model variants’ VaR. An asymmetric return distribution and fat-tail phenomenon in financial time series were considered by estimating the models with normal, student t and generalized error distributions. The analysis based on Akaike Information Criterion suggests that the EGARCH model with student t innovation distribution can furnish more accurate estimate of VaR. In the light of this, we apply the likelihood ratio tests of proportional failure rates to VaR derived from EGARCH model in order to determine the short and long positions VaR performances. The result shows that as alpha ranges from 0.05 to 0.005 for short positions, the failure rate significantly exceeds the prescribed quintiles while it however shows no significant difference between the failure rate and the prescribed quantiles for long positions. This suggests that investors and portfolio managers in the Nigeria stock market have long trading position or can buy assets with concern on when the asset prices will fall. Precisely, the VaR estimates for the long position range from -4.7% for 95 percent confidence level to -10.3% for 99.5 percent confidence level.

Keywords: downside risk, value-at-risk, failure rate, kupiec LR tests, GARCH models

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Authors: Dongju Kim, Youngjoo Suh, Hyojin Kim, Gyeongyeong Kim

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Acoustic Emission Testing (AET) is widely used to test the structural integrity of an operational hydrogen storage container, and clustering algorithms are frequently used in pattern recognition methods to interpret AET results. However, the interpretation of AET results can vary from user to user as the tuning of the relevant parameters relies on the user's experience and knowledge of AET. Therefore, it is necessary to use a deep learning model to identify patterns in acoustic emission (AE) signal data that can be used to classify defects instead. In this paper, a deep learning-based model for classifying the types of defects in hydrogen storage tanks, using AE sensor waveforms, is proposed. As hydrogen storage tanks are commonly constructed using carbon fiber reinforced polymer composite (CFRP), a defect classification dataset is collected through a tensile test on a specimen of CFRP with an AE sensor attached. The performance of the classification model, using one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1-D CNN) and synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) data augmentation, achieved 91.09% accuracy for each defect. It is expected that the deep learning classification model in this paper, used with AET, will help in evaluating the operational safety of hydrogen storage containers.

Keywords: acoustic emission testing, carbon fiber reinforced polymer composite, one-dimensional convolutional neural network, smote data augmentation

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Authors: Muhammad Saleem

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Background: Inattentive food choices and engagement in excessive physical activities by male athletes can potentially lead to adverse health consequences. Objective: The aim was to ascertain the occurrence of risk factors associated with the Male Athlete Triad among young elite athletes in Pakistan. Methodology: In 2018, a cross-sectional study based on questionnaires was conducted at the Pakistan Sports Board. The study aimed to explore the risk factors related to the Male Athlete Triad in young elite athletes who were part of national training camps in major metropolitan areas. The study included proficient male elite athletes aged 18 to 25 years, capable of understanding the English questionnaire. The athletes completed a survey encompassing aspects like demographic information, educational background, Body Mass Index (BMI), sports involvement, and hours of participation. Additionally, they filled out the Eating Attitude Test-26 (EAT-26) and questionnaires assessing risks of amenorrhea and low bone mineral density. The prevalence of risk factors for each of the three components was individually evaluated. The collected data underwent analysis using SPSS-20, with descriptive statistics being applied. Results: The study comprised a sample of 90 elite athletes (mean age: 23.57 ± 2.37 years, mean BMI: 21.97 ± 1.90) engaged in various sports. The EAT-26 results indicated that 50% of athletes were at risk of developing an eating disorder. Moreover, 83.3% exhibited disordered eating behaviors that necessitated referral. Risks for amenorrhea were observed in 15% of the participants, and regarding low bone mineral density, notable risks were absent except for the consumption of caffeinated beverages, which was noted in 51.7% of participants. Conclusion: The study identified a significant prevalence of disordered eating risk among male elite athletes in Pakistan. However, the risks associated with amenorrhea and low bone mineral density were not a major concern in this particular group.

Keywords: Pakistan, osteoporosis, female athlete triad, bone mineral density, athlete, amenorrhea, eating disorders

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Authors: Muhammad Saleem Ullah Khan Sumbal, Eric Tsui, Ricky Cheong, Eric See To

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Organizations are posed to a threat of valuable knowledge loss when employees leave either due to retirement, resignation, job change or because of disabilities e.g. death, etc. Due to changing economic conditions, globalization, and aging workforce, organizations are facing challenges regarding retention of valuable knowledge. On the one hand, large number of employees are going to retire in the organizations whereas on the other hand, younger generation does not want to work in a company for a long time and there is an increasing trend of frequent job change among the new generation. Because of these factors, organizations need to make sure that they capture the knowledge of employee before (s)he walks out of the door. The first step in this process is to know what type of knowledge employee possesses and whether this knowledge is important for the organization. Researchers reveal in the literature that despite the serious consequences of knowledge loss in terms of organizational productivity and competitive advantage, there has not been much work done in the area of knowledge loss assessment of departing employees. An important step in the knowledge retention process is to determine the critical ‘at risk’ knowledge. Thus, knowledge loss risk assessment is a process by which organizations can gauge the importance of knowledge of the departing employee. The purpose of this study is to explore this topic of knowledge loss risk assessment by conducting a qualitative study in oil and gas sector. By engaging in dialogues with managers and executives of the organizations through in-depth interviews and adopting a grounded methodology approach, the research will explore; i) Are there any measures adopted by organizations to assess the risk of knowledge loss from departing employees? ii) Which factors are crucial for knowledge loss assessment in the organizations? iii) How can we prioritize the employees for knowledge retention according to their criticality? Grounded theory approach is used when there is not much knowledge available in the area under research and thus new knowledge is generated about the topic through an in-depth exploration of the topic by using methods such as interviews and using a systematic approach to analyze the data. The outcome of the study will generate a model for the risk of knowledge loss through factors such as the likelihood of knowledge loss, the consequence/impact of knowledge loss and quality of the knowledge loss of departing employees. Initial results show that knowledge loss assessment is quite crucial for the organizations and it helps in determining what types of knowledge employees possess e.g. organizations knowledge, subject matter expertise or relationships knowledge. Based on that, it can be assessed which employee is more important for the organizations and how to prioritize the knowledge retention process for departing employees.

Keywords: knowledge loss, risk assessment, departing employees, Hong Kong organizations

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Authors: Raquel Balon Quintana

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This study aims to help the Students-At-Risk of Dropping Out to finish their studies in their grade/year level category for this school year by finding out students’ behavior in and out the school, community involvement in the learning process and the causes or reasons behind drop-out rate that affect the performance level of the school. This study also looked for the intervention measures to reduce the drop-out rate of the school. The Normative Survey Method of research was used to achieve its purpose and objective of conducting interview with students and their parents, subject teachers, classmates and friends; undertaking observation and monitoring to find out the whereabouts of SARDO’s on and off classes hours; using questionnaires; and conducting home visitation to be able to link the community involvement into dropping-out of student. Results of the study revealed that out of 32 Students-At-Risk of Dropping Out, 50% were over age for high school (16 years old to 21 years old) while the other 50% came from the regular high school students. These 16 students came from the 41 students who dropped-out from their classes last school year. All Students-At-Risk of Dropping-Out are single and seventy-eight percent of them are male. Top five (5) among the factors that affect their school performance were peer pressure, self-drive, malnutrition, family problem/support and truancy. The five (5) least factors that affect their schooling were problems within their community, school-administration factor, harassment, teacher factor and distance from the school.

Keywords: students-at-risk of dropping-out, drop-out rate, Leocadio Alejo Entienza High School, Philippines

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Authors: V. Sulakatko, F. U. Vogdt, I. Lill

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Construction technology and on-site construction activities have a direct influence on the life cycle costs of energy efficiently renovated apartment buildings. The systematic inadequacies of the External Thermal Insulation Composite System (ETICS) which occur during the construction phase increase the risk for all stakeholders, reduce mechanical durability and increase the life cycle costs of the building. The economic effect of these shortcomings can be minimised if the risk of the most significant on-site activities is recognised. The objective of the presented ETICS economic assessment concept is to evaluate the economic influence of on-site shortcomings and reveal their significance to the foreseeable future repair costs. The model assembles repair techniques, discusses their direct cost calculation methods, argues over the proper usage of net present value over the life cycle of the building, and proposes a simulation tool to evaluate the risk of on-site activities. As the technique is dependent on the selected real interest rate, a sensitivity analysis is anticipated to determine the validity of the recommendations. After the verification of the model on the sample buildings by the industry, it is expected to increase economic rationality of resource allocation and reduce high-risk systematic shortcomings during the construction process of ETICS.

Keywords: activity-based cost estimating, cost estimation, ETICS, life cycle costing

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Authors: Bassey Odiong Akan

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In recent decades potentially significant changes have taken place in the world of work and these have led to the emergence of new challenges in occupational safety and health. The working environment is now not only wroth with concerns about physical, biological and chemical risks but also emerging risks which are completely new risks that have never been seen before or previously known risks that are evolving in unexpected ways with unanticipated consequences. Psychosocial risk factors and its attendant hazards happen to be one of them and can impact health directly or indirectly, mediated by work-related stress. These risks are related to the way work is designed, organised and managed, as well as the economic and social contexts of work. It has become necessary to identify, explore and anticipate the dynamics of these risks factors and hazards with regards to how it affects women. This presentation is a review of information gathered from books of distinguished authors, research work and scientific/professional journals on the psychosocial work environment intended as a guide to stimulate discussion, raise awareness and encourage research and action at different levels.

Keywords: emerging risks, psychosocial hazards, psychosocial risk factors, work related stress

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Authors: Ran Etgar, Yuval Cohen, Erel Avineri

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One of the major challenges of transportation in medium sized inner-cities (such as Tel-Aviv) is the last-mile solution. Personal rapid transit (PRT) seems like an applicable candidate for this, as it combines the benefits of personal (car) travel with the operational benefits of transit. However, the investment required for large area PRT grid is significant and there is a need to economically justify such investment by correctly evaluating the grid capacity. PRT main elements are small automated vehicles (sometimes referred to as podcars) operating on a network of specially built guideways. The research is looking at a specific concept of elevated PRT system. Literature review has revealed the drawbacks PRT modelling and simulation approaches, mainly due to the lack of consideration of technical and operational features of the system (such as headways, acceleration, safety issues); the detailed design of infrastructure (guideways, stations, and docks); the stochastic and sessional characteristics of demand; and safety regulations – all of them have a strong effect on the system performance. A highly detailed model of the system, developed in this research, is applying a discrete event simulation combined with an agent-based approach, to represent the system elements and the podecars movement logic. Applying a case study approach, the simulation model is used to study the capacity of the system, the expected throughput of the system, the utilization, and the level of service (journey time, waiting time, etc.).

Keywords: capacity, productivity measurement, PRT, simulation, transportation

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Authors: Retno A. Vinarti, Lucy M. Hederman

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This research describes a knowledge model for a system which give personalized alert to users about infectious disease risks in the context of weather, location and time. The knowledge model is based on established epidemiological concepts augmented by information gleaned from infection-related data repositories. The existing disease risk prediction research has more focuses on utilizing raw historical data and yield seasonal patterns of infectious disease risk emergence. This research incorporates both data and epidemiological concepts gathered from Atlas of Human Infectious Disease (AHID) and Centre of Disease Control (CDC) as basic reasoning of infectious disease risk prediction. Using CommonKADS methodology, the disease risk prediction task is an assignment synthetic task, starting from knowledge identification through specification, refinement to implementation. First, knowledge is gathered from AHID primarily from the epidemiology and risk group chapters for each infectious disease. The result of this stage is five major elements (Person, Infectious Disease, Weather, Location and Time) and their properties. At the knowledge specification stage, the initial tree model of each element and detailed relationships are produced. This research also includes a validation step as part of knowledge refinement: on the basis that the best model is formed using the most common features, Frequency-based Selection (FBS) is applied. The portion of the Infectious Disease risk model relating to Person comes out strongest, with Location next, and Weather weaker. For Person attribute, Age is the strongest, Activity and Habits are moderate, and Blood type is weakest. At the Location attribute, General category (e.g. continents, region, country, and island) results much stronger than Specific category (i.e. terrain feature). For Weather attribute, Less Precise category (i.e. season) comes out stronger than Precise category (i.e. exact temperature or humidity interval). However, given that some infectious diseases are significantly more serious than others, a frequency based metric may not be appropriate. Future work will incorporate epidemiological measurements of disease seriousness (e.g. odds ratio, hazard ratio and fatality rate) into the validation metrics. This research is limited to modelling existing knowledge about epidemiology and chain of infection concepts. Further step, verification in knowledge refinement stage, might cause some minor changes on the shape of tree.

Keywords: epidemiology, knowledge modelling, infectious disease, prediction, risk

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Authors: Amalka Nawarathna, Nirodha Fernando, Zaid Alwan

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Global carbon reduction is not merely a responsibility of environmentally advanced developed countries, but also a responsibility of developing countries regardless of their less impact on global carbon emissions. In recognition of that, Sri Lanka as a developing country has initiated promoting green building construction as one reduction strategy. However, notwithstanding the increasing attention on Embodied Carbon (EC) reduction in the global building sector, they still mostly focus on Operational Carbon (OC) reduction (through improving operational energy). An adequate attention has not yet been given on EC estimation and reduction. Therefore, this study aims to identify the reasons for the slow uptake of EC estimation in the Sri Lankan building sector. To achieve this aim, 16 numbers of global barriers to estimate EC were identified through existing literature. They were then subjected to a pilot survey to identify the significant reasons for the slow uptake of EC estimation in the Sri Lankan building sector. A questionnaire with a three-point Likert scale was used to this end. The collected data were analysed using descriptive statistics. The findings revealed that 11 out of 16 challenges/ barriers are highly relevant as reasons for the slow uptake in estimating EC in buildings in Sri Lanka while the other five challenges/ barriers remain as moderately relevant reasons. Further, the findings revealed that there are no low relevant reasons. Eventually, the paper concluded that all the known reasons are significant to the Sri Lankan building sector and it is necessary to address them in order to upturn the attention on EC reduction.

Keywords: embodied carbon emissions, embodied carbon estimation, global carbon reduction, Sri Lankan building sector

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Authors: Mohamed Amine Bouraoui

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The aim of this paper is to realize the importance of a CRM approach, to detect the degree of awareness of Tunisian managers of this importance and analyse the degree of integration of CRM in the Tunisian companies. Initially, we focus on the definition and components of CRM, then we focus on the level of integration of CRM within Tunisian enterprises.

Keywords: CRM, operational tools, analytical tools, Tunisian company

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Authors: Jingwen Shi, Qi Wu

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We study the role played interest rate risk in carry trade return in order to understand the forward premium puzzle. In this study, our goal is to investigate to what extent carry trade return is indeed due to compensation for risk taking and, more important, to reveal the nature of these risks. Using option data not only on exchange rates but also on interest rate swaps (swaptions), our first finding is that, besides the consensus currency risks, interest rate risks also contribute a non-negligible portion to the carry trade return. What strikes us is our second finding. We find that large downside risks of future exchange rate movements are, in fact, priced significantly in option market on interest rates. The role played by interest rate risk differs structurally from the currency risk. There is a unique premium associated with interest rate risk, though seemingly small in size, which compensates the tail risks, the left tail to be precise. On the technical front, our study relies on accurately retrieving implied distributions from currency options and interest rate swaptions simultaneously, especially the tail components of the two. For this purpose, our major modeling work is to build a new international asset pricing model where we use an orthogonal setup for pricing kernels and specify non-Gaussian dynamics in order to capture three sets of option skew accurately and consistently across currency options and interest rate swaptions, domestic and foreign, within one model. Our results open a door for studying forward premium anomaly through implied information from interest rate derivative market.

Keywords: carry trade, forward premium anomaly, FX option, interest rate swaption, implied volatility skew, uncovered interest rate parity

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Authors: Daniella Hirwa

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Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is associated with several risk-taking behaviors, including drug use and smoking. Such risk-taking behaviors are often a result of an attempt to self-manage symptoms associated with ADHD. The present review investigates the effects of nicotine on symptoms associated with ADHD. This systematic literature review was conducted for 2017-2024 using keywords associated with ADHD, smoking, and nicotine. The results indicate that individuals with ADHD start smoking earlier than those without ADHD, and it is believed that this prevalence and the higher rates of smoking are due to improvements in cognitive and executive function, attention, and impulsivity due to the effect that nicotine has on dopamine release. Longitudinal studies with larger sample sizes and comprehensive health history and cognitive testing are required to gain more insight into the ways that nicotine affects ADHD symptoms and the context by which smoking is used as a method of self-treatment to help aid the development of nicotine-based treatment options that do not pose the same health risks as smoking.

Keywords: ADHD, nicotine, risk-taking behaviors, smoking

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Authors: Rayleigh Dada Abu, Halilu Ahmad Shaba

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Siltation is a serious problem that affects public water supply infrastructures such as dams and reservoirs. It is a major problem which threatens the performance and sustainability of dams and reservoirs. It reduces the dam capacity for flood control, potable water supply, changes water stage, reduces water quality and recreational benefits. The focus of this study is the Lower Usuma reservoir. At completion the reservoir had a gross storage capacity of 100 × 106 m3 (100 million cubic metres), a maximum operational level of 587.440 m a.s.l., with a maximum depth of 49 m and a catchment area of 241 km2 at dam site with a daily designed production capacity of 10,000 cubic metres per hour. The reservoir is 1,300 m long and feeds the treatment plant mainly by gravity. The reservoir became operational in 1986 and no survey has been conducted to determine its current storage capacity and rate of siltation. Hydrographic survey of the reservoir by integrated acoustic echo-sounding technique was conducted in November 2012 to determine the level and rate of siltation. The result obtained shows that the reservoir has lost 12.0 meters depth to siltation in 26 years of its operation; indicating 24.5% loss in installed storage capacity. The present bathymetric survey provides baseline information for future work on siltation depth and annual rates of storage capacity loss for the Lower Usuma reservoir.

Keywords: sedimentation, lower Usuma reservoir, acoustic echo sounder, bathymetric survey

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Authors: Hosein Faramarzpour

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This work presents the optimum operational conditions for a hydrogen-based micro-scale power source, using a verified mathematical model including fluid dynamics and reaction kinetics. Thereafter the stable operational flame regime is pursued as a key factor in optimizing the design of micro-combustors. The results show that with increasing velocities, four H2 flame regimes develop in the micro-combustor, namely: 1) periodic ignition-extinction regime, 2) steady symmetric regime, 3) pulsating asymmetric regime, and 4) steady asymmetric regime. The first regime that appears in 0.8 m/s inlet velocity is a periodic ignition-extinction regime which is characterized by counter flows and tulip-shape flames. For flow velocity above 0.2 m/s, the flame shifts downstream, and the combustion regime switches to a steady symmetric flame where temperature increases considerably due to the increased rate of incoming energy. Further elevation in flow velocity up to 1 m/s leads to the pulsating asymmetric flame formation, which is associated with pulses in various flame properties such as temperature and species concentration. Further elevation in flow velocity up to 1 m/s leads to the pulsating asymmetric flame formation, which is associated with pulses in various flame properties such as temperature and species concentration. Ultimately, when the inlet velocity reached 1.2 m/s, the last regime was observed, and a steady asymmetric regime appeared.

Keywords: thermophotovoltaic generator, micro combustor, micro power generator, combustion regimes, flame dynamic

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Authors: Kartik Thakore, Anna-Roza Tamas, Adam Cole

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The world health organization (WHO) reports that by 2030 more than 23.7 million deaths annually will be caused by Cardiovascular Diseases (CVDs); with a 2008 economic impact of $3.76 T. Metabolic syndrome is a disorder of multiple metabolic risk factors strongly indicated in the development of cardiovascular diseases. Guided lifestyle intervention driven by live coaching has been shown to have a positive impact on metabolic risk factors. Individuals’ path to improved (decreased) metabolic risk factors are driven by personal motivation and personalized messages delivered by coaches and augmented by technology. Using interactions captured between 400 individuals and 3 coaches over a program period of 500 days, a preliminary model was designed. A novel real time event tracking system was created to track and classify clients based on their genetic profile, baseline questionnaires and usage of a mobile application with live coaching sessions. Classification of clients and coaches was done using a support vector machines application build on Apache Spark, Stanford Natural Language Processing Library (SNLPL) and decision-modeling.

Keywords: guided lifestyle intervention, metabolic risk factors, personal coaching, support vector machines application, Apache Spark, natural language processing

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Authors: J. K. Visser, H. T. Malan

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A need exists to identify the sources of risks associated with the process automation systems within petrochemical companies or similar energy related industries. These companies use many different process automation technologies in its value chain. A crucial part of the process automation system is the information technology component featuring in the supervisory control layer. The ever-changing technology within the process automation layers and the rate at which it advances pose a risk to safe and predictable automation system performance. The age of the automation equipment also provides challenges to the operations and maintenance managers of the plant due to obsolescence and unavailability of spare parts. The main objective of this research was to determine the risk sources associated with the equipment that is part of the process automation systems. A secondary objective was to establish whether technology managers and technicians were aware of the risks and share the same viewpoint on the importance of the risks associated with automation systems. A conceptual model for risk sources of automation systems was formulated from models and frameworks in literature. This model comprised six categories of risk which forms the basis for identifying specific risks. This model was used to develop a questionnaire that was sent to 172 instrument technicians and technology managers in the company to obtain primary data. 75 completed and useful responses were received. These responses were analyzed statistically to determine the highest risk sources and to determine whether there was difference in opinion between technology managers and technicians. The most important risks that were revealed in this study are: 1) the lack of skilled technicians, 2) integration capability of third-party system software, 3) reliability of the process automation hardware, 4) excessive costs pertaining to performing maintenance and migrations on process automation systems, and 5) requirements of having third-party communication interfacing compatibility as well as real-time communication networks.

Keywords: distributed control system, identification of risks, information technology, process automation system

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Authors: Kathryn McMillan

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A recent study of 8500 adult Australians aged 16 and over revealed 62% had experienced childhood maltreatment. In response to multiple recommendations by bodies such as the Australian Law Reform Commission, parliamentary reports and stakeholder input, a number of key initiatives have been developed to grapple with the difficulties of a federal-state system and to screen and triage high-risk families navigating their way through the court system. The Lighthouse Project (LHP) is a world-first initiative of the Federal Circuit and Family Courts in Australia (FCFOCA) to screen family law litigants for major risk factors, including family violence, child abuse, alcohol or substance abuse and mental ill-health at the point of filing in all applications that seek parenting orders. It commenced on 7 December 2020 on a pilot basis but has now been expanded to 15 registries across the country. A specialist risk screen, Family DOORS, Triage has been developed – focused on improving the safety and wellbeing of families involved in the family law system safety planning and service referral, and ¬ differentiated case management based on risk level, with the Evatt List specifically designed to manage the highest risk cases. Early signs are that this approach is meeting the needs of families with multiple risks moving through the Court system. Before the LHP, there was no data available about the prevalence of risk factors experienced by litigants entering the family courts and it was often assumed that it was the litigation process that was fueling family violence and other risks such as suicidality. Data from the 2022 FCFCOA annual report indicated that in parenting proceedings, 70% alleged a child had been or was at risk of abuse, 80% alleged a party had experienced Family Violence, 74 % of children had been exposed to Family Violence, 53% alleged through substance misuse by party children had caused or was at risk of causing harm to children and 58% of matters allege mental health issues of a party had caused or placed a child at risk of harm. Those figures reveal the significant overlap between child protection and family violence, both of which are under the responsibility of state and territory governments. Since 2020, a further key initiative has been the co-location of child protection and police officials amongst a number of registries of the FCFOCA. The ability to access in a time-effective way details of family violence or child protection orders, weapons licenses, criminal convictions or proceedings is key to managing issues across the state and federal divide. It ensures a more cohesive and effective response to family law, family violence and child protection systems.

Keywords: child protection, family violence, parenting, risk screening, triage.

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Authors: Maggie Hui

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Risk management is not a new concept; however, it is an uncharted area as applied to the translation process and translator training. Serving as one of the self-discovery activities in their practicum course, a two-cycle experiment was carried out with a class of 13 MA translation students with an attempt to explore their risk management while translating in a simulated setting that involves translator-client relations. To test the effects of the main variable of translators’ interaction with the simulated clients, the researcher employed control-group translators and two experiment groups (with Group A being the translator in Cycle 1 and the client in Cycle 2, and Group B on the client position in Cycle 1 and the translator position in Cycle 2). Experiment cycle 1 aims to explore if there would be any behavioral difference in risk management between translators with interaction with the simulated clients, i.e. experiment group A, and their counterparts without such interaction, i.e. control group. Design of Cycle 2 concerns the order of playing different roles of the translator and client in the experiment, and provides information to compare behavior of translators of the two experiment groups. Since this is process-oriented research, it is necessary to hypothesize what was happening in the translators’ minds. The researcher made use of a user-friendly screen-voice recording freeware to record subjects’ screen activities, including every word the translator typed and every change they made to the rendition, the websites they browsed and the reference tools they used, in addition to the verbalization of their thoughts throughout the process. The research observes the translation procedures subjects considered and finally adopted, and looks into the justifications for their procedures, in order to interpret their risk management. The qualitative and quantitative results of this study have some implications for translator training: (a) the experience of being a client seems to reinforce the translator’s risk aversion; (b) the use of role-playing simulation can empower students’ learning by enhancing their attitudinal or psycho-physiological competence, interpersonal competence and strategic competence; and (c) the screen-voice recordings serve as a helpful tool for learners to reflect on their rendition processes, i.e. what they performed satisfactorily and unsatisfactorily while translating and what they could do for improvement in future translation tasks.

Keywords: risk management, screen-voice recordings, simulated translator-client relations, translation pedagogy, translation process-oriented research

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Authors: Michael Ajide Oyinloye

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The natural environment is made up of air, water and soil. The release of emission of industrial waste into anyone of the components of the environment causes pollution. Industrial pollution significantly threatens the inherent right of people, to the enjoyment of a safe and secure environment. The aim of this paper is to assess the effect of environmental pollution and health risks of residents living near Ewekoro Cement factory. The research made use of IKONOS imagery for Geographical Information System (GIS) to buffer and extract buildings that are less than 1 km to the plant, within 1 km to 5 km and above 5 km to the factory. Also, a questionnaire was used to elicit information on the socio-economic factors, the effect of environmental pollution on residents and measures adopted to control industrial pollution on the residents. Findings show that most buildings that between less than 1 km and 1 km to 5 km to the factory have high health risk in the study area. The study recommended total relocation for the residents of the study area to reduce risk health problems.

Keywords: environmental pollution, health risk, GIS, satellite imagery, ewekoro

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Authors: Nevila Bardhi, Joanna Magda, Kolapo Alex-Oni, Slavenka Sedlar, Paromita Hore

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The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (NYC DOHMH) receives blood lead test results for NYC residents and conducts lead poisoning case investigations for individuals with elevated blood lead levels exposed to lead occupationally and non-occupationally. To (1) improve participant engagement, (2) aid the identification of potential lead sources, and (3) better tailor recommendations to reduce lead exposure, Motivational Interviewing (MI) techniques were incorporated during risk assessment interviews of non-pregnant adults by DOHMH’s Adult Lead Poisoning Prevention (ALP) Program. MI is an evidence-based counselling method used in clinical settings that have been effective in promoting behavior change by resolving ambivalence and enhancing motivation in treating both physiological and psychological health conditions. The incorporation of MI techniques in the ALP risk assessment interview was effective in improving the identification of lead sources for non-pregnant adult cases, thus, allowing for the opportunity to better tailor lead poisoning prevention recommendations. The embedding of MI cues in the ALP risk assessment interview also significantly increased engagement in the interview process, resulting in approximately 50 more interviews conducted per year and a decrease in interview refusals during case investigations. Additionally, the pre-MI interview completion rate was 57%, while the post-MI Interview completion rate was 68%. We recommend MI techniques to be used by other lead poisoning prevention programs during lead poisoning investigations in similar diverse populations.

Keywords: lead poisoning prevention, motivational interviewing, behavior change, lead poisoning risk factors, self-efficacy

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Authors: Ram Sharan Mehta, Dina Khanal, Pushpa Parajuli, Gayanand Mandal, Bijaya Bartuala

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Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death worldwide. Adequate awareness of risk factors of CVD is the first step towards effective preventive strategies to combat the CVD burden in diabetes patients.This study aims to assess the awareness on risk factors of CVD among patients with diabetes mellitus attending diabetic clinic of BPKIHS and to find the association between awareness with their selected socio demographic variables. Methods and Material: A descriptive cross sectional study was conducted among 112 patients with diabetes in diabetic clinic of BPKIHS. Convenient sampling technique was used for data collection over duration of one month using interview schedule by HDFQ II tool. Data were analyzed by using descriptive and inferential statistics. (Chi square). Results: The mean age of respondents was 55.4±12.13 years. That mean HDFQ score was 14.31± 5.08. Only 33% of the respondents had adequate level of awareness whereas majority of the respondents (67%) had inadequate level of awareness. Majority of the respondent (83.9%) were aware about smoking, (78.6%) physical activity, (75%) increasing age, (75.9%) high blood pressure, (71.4%) overweight respectively. Whereas most of the respondents were not aware of high cholesterol, fatty diet, preventive strategies and association of diabetes with CVD. Awareness was statistically significant with (p=0.043) educational status, (p=0.025) monthly income, (p=0.05) residence, (p=0.006) CVD information received and (p=0.022) co morbid condition as a heart disease. Conclusion: The findings of this study concluded most of the respondents had an inadequate level of awareness on risk factors of CVD. So Effective education and appropriate preventive strategies of CVD are indeed important to reduce CVD burden in diabetes patients.

Keywords: cardiovascular disease, awareness, diabetes patients, risk

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Authors: Ehsan Ahmed Yahia

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Introduction: The nursing role in nutrition screening and assessing hospitalized patients is important. Malnutrition is a common and costly problem, particularly among hospitalized patients, and can have an adverse effect on the healing process. The study's goal is to assess the prevalence of malnutrition among adult hospitalized orthopedic patients and to detect the barriers to the nutrition screening process. Aim of the study: This study aimed to (a) assess the prevalence of malnutrition in hospitalized orthopedic patients and (b) evaluate the relationship between malnutrition and selected clinical outcomes. Material and Methods: This prospective field study was conducted for three months between 03/2022 and 06/2022 in the selected orthopedic departments in a teaching hospital affiliated withCairo University, Egypt. with a total number of one hundred twenty (120) patients. Patients' assessment included checking for malnutrition using the Nutritional Risk Screening Questionnaire. Patients at risk for malnourishment were defined as NRS score ≥ 3. Clinical outcomes under consideration included 1) length of hospitalization, 2) mobilization after surgery and conservative treatment, and 3) rate of adverse events. Results: This study found that malnutrition is a significant problem among patients hospitalized in an orthopedic ward. The prevalence of malnutrition was the highest in patients with lumbar spine and pelvis fractures, followed by the proximal femur and proximal humerus fractures. Patients at risk for malnutrition had significantly prolonged hospitalization, delayed postoperative mobilization, and increased incidence of adverse events.27.8% of the study sample were at risk for malnutrition. The highest prevalence of malnourishment was found in Septic Surgery with 32%, followed by Traumatology with 19.6% and Arthroplasty with 15.3%. A higher prevalence of malnutrition was detected among patients with typical fractures, such as lumbar spine and pelvis (46.7%), proximal femur (34.4%), and proximal humeral (23.7%) fractures. Additionally, patients at risk for malnutrition showed prolonged hospitalization (14.7 ± 11.1 vs. 21.2 ± 11.7 days), delayed postoperative mobilization (2.3 ± 2.9 vs. 4.1 ± 4.9 days), and delayed to mobilize after conservative treatment (1.1 ± 2.7 vs. 1.8 ± 1.9 days). A significant statistical correlation of NRS with individual parameters (Spearman's rank correlation, p < 0.05) was observed. The rate of adverse incidents in patients at risk for malnutrition was significantly higher than that of patients with a regular nutritional status (37.2% vs. 21.1%, p < 0.001). Conclusions: Our results indicate that the prevalence of malnutrition in surgical patients is significant. The nutritional status of patients with typical fractures is especially at risk. Prolonged hospitalization, delayed postoperative mobilization, and delayed mobilization after conservative treatment is significantly associated with malnutrition. In addition, the incidence of adverse events in patients at risk for malnutrition is significantly higher.

Keywords: malnutrition, nutritional risk screening, surgery, nursing, orthopedic nurse

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Authors: Nyashadzashe Chiraga, Anthony Walker, Glen Bright

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The manufacturing industry is currently experiencing a paradigm shift into the Fourth Industrial Revolution in which customers are increasingly at the epicentre of production. The high degree of production customization and personalization requires a flexible manufacturing system that will rapidly respond to the dynamic and volatile changes driven by the market. They are a gap in technology that allows for the optimal flow of information and optimal manufacturing operations on the shop floor regardless of the rapid changes in the fixture and part demands. Information is the reduction of uncertainty; it gives meaning and context on the state of each cell. The amount of information needed to describe cellular manufacturing systems is investigated by two measures: the structural entropy and the operational entropy. Structural entropy is the expected amount of information needed to describe scheduled states of a manufacturing system. While operational entropy is the amount of information that describes the scheduled states of a manufacturing system, which occur during the actual manufacturing operation. Using Anylogic simulator a typical manufacturing job shop was set-up with a cellular manufacturing configuration. The cellular make-up of the configuration included; a Material handling cell, 3D Printer cell, Assembly cell, manufacturing cell and Quality control cell. The factory shop provides manufactured parts to a number of clients, and there are substantial variations in the part configurations, new part designs are continually being introduced to the system. Based on the normal expected production schedule, the schedule adherence was calculated from the structural entropy and operation entropy of varying the amounts of information communicated in simulated runs. The structural entropy denotes a system that is in control; the necessary real-time information is readily available to the decision maker at any point in time. For contractive analysis, different out of control scenarios were run, in which changes in the manufacturing environment were not effectively communicated resulting in deviations in the original predetermined schedule. The operational entropy was calculated from the actual operations. From the results obtained in the empirical study, it was seen that increasing, the efficiency of a factory communication system increases the degree of adherence of a job to the expected schedule. The performance of downstream production flow fed from the parallel upstream flow of information on the factory state was increased.

Keywords: information entropy, communication in manufacturing, mass customisation, scheduling

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Authors: Muhammad Ali, Aamir Sohail, Umair Malik

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Research in entrepreneurship has gained much attention in current academic environment. Youngsters are taking interest to start their own business in spite of risk matter. The objective of the study is to explain how various personality traits (personal attitude, locus of control, instrumental readiness and perceived behavioral control) are affecting entrepreneurial intention of students. The theory of planned behavior supports out study which explains that personal attractiveness, social norms and feasibility are the main factors that affect intentions of an individual. The sample data of 120 is collected from graduating batch of three reputed universities of Islamabad through questionnaires. Our results support the hypothesis that personality traits positively influence the entrepreneurial intention. We conclude from the study that many graduating students are willing to start a new venture, but most of them are likely to do a job in their respective fields. Risk factor also exists in their minds because in our country most people are risk-averse and they do not want to lose their money in case of loss.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, instrumental readiness, locus of control, personal attitude

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Authors: Shuwen Hu, Yuancheng Lou, Dongxu Ji

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Photovoltaic (PV) power generation, as one of the most commercialized methods to utilize solar power, can only convert a limited range of solar spectrum into electricity, whereas the majority of the solar energy is dissipated as heat. To address this problem, thermoelectric (TE) module is often integrated with the concentrated PV module for waste heat recovery and regeneration. In this research, a feasibility analysis is conducted for the tandem concentrated photovoltaic-thermoelectric (CPV-TE) hybrid system considering various operational parameters as well as TE material properties. Furthermore, the power output density of the CPV-TE hybrid system is maximized by selecting the optimal TE material with application of a systematic assessment methodology. In the feasibility analysis, CPV-TE is found to be more advantageous than sole CPV system except under high optical concentration ratio with low cold side convective coefficient. It is also shown that the effects of the TE material properties, including Seebeck coefficient, thermal conductivity, and electrical resistivity, on the feasibility of CPV-TE are interacted with each other and might have opposite effect on the system performance under different operational conditions. In addition, the optimal TE material selected by the proposed assessment methodology can improve the system power output density by 227 W/m2 under highly concentrated solar irradiance hence broaden the feasible range of CPV-TE considering optical concentration ratio.

Keywords: feasibility analysis, material assessment methodology, photovoltaic waste heat recovery, tandem photovoltaic-thermoelectric

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Authors: Chia-Chun Wu, Yu-Hsien Sung

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This study aims to examine the consistency between students’ predictions and their actual observations on the bullying prevalence rate among different types of high-risk victims, thereby clarifying the reliability of students’ reports on the identification of bullying. A total of 1,732 Taiwanese students (734 males and 998 females) participated in this study. A Rasch model was adopted for data analysis. The results showed that students with “personality or behavioral issues” are more likely to be bullied in schools, based on both students’ predictions and actual observations. Moreover, the results differed significantly between genders and between various educational levels in students’ predictions and their actual observations on the bullying prevalence rate of different types of high-risk victims. To summarize, this study not only suggests that students’ reports on the identification of bullying are accurate and could be a valuable reference in terms of recognizing a bullying incident, but it also argues that more attention should be paid to students’ gender and educational level when taking their perspectives into consideration when it comes to identifying bullying behaviors.

Keywords: school bullying, student, bullying recognition, high-risk victims

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Authors: Mengdan Guo, Zongmin Wang, Haibo Yang

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Drought is one of the most complex and destructive natural disasters, with a huge impact on both nature and society. In recent years, adverse climate conditions and uncontrolled human activities have exacerbated the occurrence of global droughts, among which socio-economic droughts are closely related to human survival. The study of socio-economic drought risk assessment is crucial for sustainable social development. Therefore, this study comprehensively considered the risk of disaster causing factors, the exposure level of the disaster-prone environment, and the vulnerability of the disaster bearing body to construct a socio-economic drought risk assessment model for Chuxiong Prefecture in Yunnan Province. Firstly, a threedimensional frequency analysis of intensity area duration drought was conducted, followed by a statistical analysis of the drought risk of the socio-economic system. Secondly, a grid analysis model was constructed to assess the exposure levels of different agents and study the effects of drought on regional crop growth, industrial economic growth, and human consumption thresholds. Thirdly, an agricultural vulnerability model for different irrigation levels was established by using the DSSAT crop model. Industrial economic vulnerability and domestic water vulnerability under the impact of drought were investigated by constructing a standardized socio-economic drought index and coupling water loss. Finally, the socio-economic drought risk was assessed by combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The results show that the frequency of drought occurrence in Chuxiong Prefecture, Yunnan Province is relatively high, with high population and economic exposure concentrated in urban areas of various counties and districts, and high agricultural exposure concentrated in mountainous and rural areas. Irrigation can effectively reduce agricultural vulnerability in Chuxiong, and the yield loss rate under the 20mm winter irrigation scenario decreased by 10.7% compared to the rain fed scenario. From the perspective of comprehensive risk, the distribution of long-term socio-economic drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is relatively consistent, with the more severe areas mainly concentrated in Chuxiong City and Lufeng County, followed by counties such as Yao'an, Mouding and Yuanmou. Shuangbai County has the lowest socio-economic drought risk, which is basically consistent with the economic distribution trend of Chuxiong Prefecture. And in June, July, and August, the drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is generally high. These results can provide constructive suggestions for the allocation of water resources and the construction of water conservancy facilities in Chuxiong Prefecture, and provide scientific basis for more effective drought prevention and control. Future research is in the areas of data quality and availability, climate change impacts, human activity impacts, and countermeasures for a more comprehensive understanding and effective response to drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture.

Keywords: DSSAT model, risk assessment, socio-economic drought, standardized socio-economic drought index

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Authors: Tolga Barisik, Ali Fuat Guneri, K. Dastan

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Major industrial facilities have a high potential for fire risk. In particular, the indices used for the detection of hidden fire are used very effectively in order to prevent the fire from becoming dangerous in the initial stage. These indices provide the opportunity to prevent or intervene early by determining the stage of the fire, the potential for hazard, and the type of the combustion agent with the percentage values of the ambient air components. In this system, artificial neural network will be modeled with the input data determined using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, which is a multi-layer sensor (CAA) (teacher-learning) type, before modeling the modeling methods in the literature. The actual values produced by the indices will be compared with the outputs produced by the network. Using the neural network and the curves to be created from the resulting values, the feasibility of performance determination will be investigated.

Keywords: artifical neural networks, fire, Graham Index, levenberg-marquardt algoritm, oxygen decrease percentage index, risk assessment, Trickett Index

Procedia PDF Downloads 137