Search results for: classical reasoning
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1281

Search results for: classical reasoning

321 Online or Offline: A Pilot Study of Blended Ear-Training Course

Authors: Monika Benedek

Abstract:

This paper intends to present a pilot study of blended ear-training course at a Finnish university. The course ran for ten weeks and included both traditional (offline) group lessons for 90 minutes each week and an online learning platform. Twelve students majored in musicology and music education participated in the course. The aims of pilot research were to develop a new blended ear-training course at university level, to determine the ideal amount of workload in each part of the blended instruction (offline and online) and to develop the course material. The course material was selected from the Classical period in order to develop students’ aural skills together with their stylistic knowledge. Students were asked to provide written feedback of the course content and learning approaches of face-to-face group lessons and online learning platform each week during the course. Therefore, the teaching material is continuously planned for each week. This qualitative data collection and weekly analysis of data are on progress. However, based on the teacher-researcher’s experiences and the students’ feedback already collected, it could be seen that the blended instruction would be an ideal teaching strategy for ear-trainging at the music programmes of universities to develop students’ aural skills and stylistic knowledge. It is also presumed that such blended instruction with less workload would already improve university students’ aural skills and related musicianship skills. The preliminary findings of research also indicated that students generally found those ear-training tasks the most useful to learn online that combined listening, singing, singing and playing an instrument. This paper intends to summarise the final results of the pilot study.

Keywords: blended-learning, ear-training, higher music education, online-learning, pilot study

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320 ADP Approach to Evaluate the Blood Supply Network of Ontario

Authors: Usama Abdulwahab, Mohammed Wahab

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This paper presents the application of uncapacitated facility location problems (UFLP) and 1-median problems to support decision making in blood supply chain networks. A plethora of factors make blood supply-chain networks a complex, yet vital problem for the regional blood bank. These factors are rapidly increasing demand; criticality of the product; strict storage and handling requirements; and the vastness of the theater of operations. As in the UFLP, facilities can be opened at any of $m$ predefined locations with given fixed costs. Clients have to be allocated to the open facilities. In classical location models, the allocation cost is the distance between a client and an open facility. In this model, the costs are the allocation cost, transportation costs, and inventory costs. In order to address this problem the median algorithm is used to analyze inventory, evaluate supply chain status, monitor performance metrics at different levels of granularity, and detect potential problems and opportunities for improvement. The Euclidean distance data for some Ontario cities (demand nodes) are used to test the developed algorithm. Sitation software, lagrangian relaxation algorithm, and branch and bound heuristics are used to solve this model. Computational experiments confirm the efficiency of the proposed approach. Compared to the existing modeling and solution methods, the median algorithm approach not only provides a more general modeling framework but also leads to efficient solution times in general.

Keywords: approximate dynamic programming, facility location, perishable product, inventory model, blood platelet, P-median problem

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319 Methylene Blue Removal Using NiO nanoparticles-Sand Adsorption Packed Bed

Authors: Nedal N. Marei, Nashaat Nassar

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Many treatment techniques have been used to remove the soluble pollutants from wastewater as; dyes and metal ions which could be found in rich amount in the used water of the textile and tanneries industry. The effluents from these industries are complex, containing a wide variety of dyes and other contaminants, such as dispersants, acids, bases, salts, detergents, humectants, oxidants, and others. These techniques can be divided into physical, chemical, and biological methods. Adsorption has been developed as an efficient method for the removal of heavy metals from contaminated water and soil. It is now recognized as an effective method for the removal of both organic and inorganic pollutants from wastewaters. Nanosize materials are new functional materials, which offer high surface area and have come up as effective adsorbents. Nano alumina is one of the most important ceramic materials widely used as an electrical insulator, presenting exceptionally high resistance to chemical agents, as well as giving excellent performance as a catalyst for many chemical reactions, in microelectronic, membrane applications, and water and wastewater treatment. In this study, methylene blue (MB) dye has been used as model dye of textile wastewater in order to synthesize a synthetic MB wastewater. NiO nanoparticles were added in small percentage in the sand packed bed adsorption columns to remove the MB from the synthetic textile wastewater. Moreover, different parameters have been evaluated; flow of the synthetic wastewater, pH, height of the bed, percentage of the NiO to the sand in the packed material. Different mathematical models where employed to find the proper model which describe the experimental data and help to analyze the mechanism of the MB adsorption. This study will provide good understanding of the dyes adsorption using metal oxide nanoparticles in the classical sand bed.

Keywords: adsorption, column, nanoparticles, methylene

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318 Analyzing Use of Figurativeness, Visual Elements, Allegory, Scenic Imagery as Support System in Punjabi Contemporary Theatre for Escaping Censorship

Authors: Shazia Anwer

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This paper has discussed the unusual form of resistance in theatre against censorship board in Pakistan. The atypical approach of dramaturgy created massive space for performers and audiences to integrate and communicate. The social and religious absolutes creates suffocation in Pakistani society, strict control over all Fine and Performing Art has made art political, contemporary dramatics has started an amalgamated theatre to avoid censorship. Contemporary Punjabi theatre techniques are directly dependent on human cognition. The idea of indirect thought processing is not unique but dependent on spectators. The paper has provided an account of these techniques and their specific use for conveying specific messages across the audiences. For the Dramaturge of today, theatre space is an expression representing a linguistic formulation that includes qualities of experimental and non-traditional use of classical theatrical space in the context of fulfilling the concept of open theatre. Paper has explained the transformation of the theatrical experience into an event where the actor and the audience are co-existing and co-experiencing the dramatical experience. The denial of the existence of the 4th -Wall made two-way communication possible. This paper has elaborated that the previously marginalized genres such as naach, jugat, miras, are extensively included to counter the censorship board. Figurativeness, visual elements, allegory, scenic imagery are basic support system for contemporary Punjabi theatre. The body of the actor is used as a source for non-verbal communication, and for an escape from traditional theatrical space which by every means has every element that could be controlled and reprimanded by the controlling authority.

Keywords: communication, Punjabi theatre, figurativeness, censorship

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317 Modeling of Drug Distribution in the Human Vitreous

Authors: Judith Stein, Elfriede Friedmann

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The injection of a drug into the vitreous body for the treatment of retinal diseases like wet aged-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the most common medical intervention worldwide. We develop mathematical models for drug transport in the vitreous body of a human eye to analyse the impact of different rheological models of the vitreous on drug distribution. In addition to the convection diffusion equation characterizing the drug spreading, we use porous media modeling for the healthy vitreous with a dense collagen network and include the steady permeating flow of the aqueous humor described by Darcy's law driven by a pressure drop. Additionally, the vitreous body in a healthy human eye behaves like a viscoelastic gel through the collagen fibers suspended in the network of hyaluronic acid and acts as a drug depot for the treatment of retinal diseases. In a completely liquefied vitreous, we couple the drug diffusion with the classical Navier-Stokes flow equations. We prove the global existence and uniqueness of the weak solution of the developed initial-boundary value problem describing the drug distribution in the healthy vitreous considering the permeating aqueous humor flow in the realistic three-dimensional setting. In particular, for the drug diffusion equation, results from the literature are extended from homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions to our mixed boundary conditions that describe the eye with the Galerkin's method using Cauchy-Schwarz inequality and trace theorem. Because there is only a small effective drug concentration range and higher concentrations may be toxic, the ability to model the drug transport could improve the therapy by considering patient individual differences and give a better understanding of the physiological and pathological processes in the vitreous.

Keywords: coupled PDE systems, drug diffusion, mixed boundary conditions, vitreous body

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316 Nonlinear Aerodynamic Parameter Estimation of a Supersonic Air to Air Missile by Using Artificial Neural Networks

Authors: Tugba Bayoglu

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Aerodynamic parameter estimation is very crucial in missile design phase, since accurate high fidelity aerodynamic model is required for designing high performance and robust control system, developing high fidelity flight simulations and verification of computational and wind tunnel test results. However, in literature, there is not enough missile aerodynamic parameter identification study for three main reasons: (1) most air to air missiles cannot fly with constant speed, (2) missile flight test number and flight duration are much less than that of fixed wing aircraft, (3) variation of the missile aerodynamic parameters with respect to Mach number is higher than that of fixed wing aircraft. In addition to these challenges, identification of aerodynamic parameters for high wind angles by using classical estimation techniques brings another difficulty in the estimation process. The reason for this, most of the estimation techniques require employing polynomials or splines to model the behavior of the aerodynamics. However, for the missiles with a large variation of aerodynamic parameters with respect to flight variables, the order of the proposed model increases, which brings computational burden and complexity. Therefore, in this study, it is aimed to solve nonlinear aerodynamic parameter identification problem for a supersonic air to air missile by using Artificial Neural Networks. The method proposed will be tested by using simulated data which will be generated with a six degree of freedom missile model, involving a nonlinear aerodynamic database. The data will be corrupted by adding noise to the measurement model. Then, by using the flight variables and measurements, the parameters will be estimated. Finally, the prediction accuracy will be investigated.

Keywords: air to air missile, artificial neural networks, open loop simulation, parameter identification

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315 Transition towards a Market Society: Commodification of Public Health in India and Pakistan

Authors: Mayank Mishra

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Market Economy can be broadly defined as economic system where supply and demand regulate the economy and in which decisions pertaining to production, consumption, allocation of resources, price and competition are made by collective actions of individuals or organisations with limited government intervention. On the other hand Market Society is one where instead of the economy being embedded in social relations, social relations are embedded in the economy. A market economy becomes a market society when all of land, labour and capital are commodified. This transition also has effect on people’s attitude and values. Such a transition commence impacting the non-material aspect of life such as public education, public health and the like. The inception of neoliberal policies in non-market norms altered the nature of social goods like public health that raised the following questions. What impact would the transition to a market society make on people in terms of accessibility to public health? Is healthcare a commodity that can be subjected to a competitive market place? What kind of private investments are being made in public health and how do private investments alter the nature of a public good like healthcare? This research problem will employ empirical-analytical approach that includes deductive reasoning which will be using the existing concept of market economy and market society as a foundation for the analytical framework and the hypotheses to be examined. The research also intends to inculcate the naturalistic elements of qualitative methodology which refers to studying of real world situations as they unfold. The research will analyse the existing literature available on the subject. Concomitantly the research intends to access the primary literature which includes reports from the World Bank, World Health Organisation (WHO) and the different departments of respective ministries of the countries for the analysis. This paper endeavours to highlight how the issue of commodification of public health would lead to perpetual increase in its inaccessibility leading to stratification of healthcare services where one can avail the better services depending on the extent of one’s ability to pay. Since the fundamental maxim of private investments is to churn out profits, these kinds of trends would pose a detrimental effect on the society at large perpetuating the lacuna between the have and the have-nots.The increasing private investments, both, domestic and foreign, in public health sector are leading to increasing inaccessibility of public health services. Despite the increase in various public health schemes the quality and impact of government public health services are on a continuous decline.

Keywords: commodity, India and Pakistan, market society, public health

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314 Heritage of the Ancient Greco-Roman Cities and Harbors in the North West Coast of Egypt

Authors: Wessam Fekry Ibrahim Moussa

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The northwest coast of Egypt embraces about 500 km of the Mediterranean coastline. The area covered extends from Alexandria on the East to the village of Sallum at Egypt's border with Libya in the west with an average depth of 20-70 km. When one looks at this long strip of land, one is struck by the fact that, from the archaeological point of view, one knows relatively little about this region during ancient times, its history, villages, inhabitants, and heritage. According to classical writers, in antiquity, the area seemed to be more populated and characterized by its rich buildings and inhabitants. They mentioned several Greco-Roman towns and harbors scattered along the coast nearly 2 thousand years ago. Strabo, for instance, in his book 17, confirmed the existence of about 12 several clusters along the coast, which varied between cities, villages, harbors, and small islands. Claudius Ptolemaeus also enumerated many marina sites as well as some small cities and villages. Unfortunately, nowadays, most of them have been lost either due to the extensive development of the north coast, Natural Disasters, or Erosion Factors. However, recent excavations carried out within the area revealed just a little of these settlements. The aim of this study is to reveal the secrets of the hidden heritage of those ancient sites and shed light on the role they played in the past, as some of them used to be stops on the trade route between Libya and Egypt (Strabo 17) or major centers for some of the international imports. The study will explore the archeological evidence using the analytical methodology to analyze each site and identify its features and significances in order to conclude the importance and role it once played during the past. Findings could be used by authorities and policymakers to utilize these heritage resources to improve cultural tourism within the area and enhance the tourist's experience.

Keywords: Greco Roman, heritage, ancient cities, north west coast

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313 A Histopathological Study on Leech (Hirudo medicinalis) Application in the Management of Vicarcikā (Eczema)

Authors: K. M. Pratap Shankar, Dattatreya Rao, Sai Prasad

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Background: Skin diseases are among the most common health problems worldwide and are associated with a considerable burden. Eczema is such a skin ailment which cause psychological, social and financial burden on the patient and their families. Management of eczema with antibiotics, antihistamines, steroids etc., are available but even after their use relapses, recurrences and other complications are very common. Aim: The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of leech application in the management of vicarcikā (Eczema) with Histopathological study. Methods: For the present study 10 patients having the classical symptoms of Vicarcikā, were randomly selected as per the inclusion and exclusion criteria from O.P.D. & I.P.D. sections of Śalya department, S.V. Āyurvedic Hospital, Tirupati. Minimum 4 sittings of Leech application was carried out with seven days interval. Total duration of treatment was 6 weeks. Biopsy samples were collected from the lesion site before and after treatment. Histopathological examination was done by the pathologist. Results: In eczema (dermatitis) the leech application therapy gives excellent response by reducing the inflammatory component, hyperkeratosis, spongiosis, irregular acanthosis and by evoking a granulation tissue response in the dermis and in most of the cases with complete recovery from the lesion. Most of the cases in the study were chronic dermatitis and sebhoric keratosis, almost all local/focal pigmented lesions is totally relieved by leech therapy especially in cases of sebhoric keratosis. Conclusion: In the present study it was found that, leech application evokes significant changes at histological level specifically in reduction of inflammatory component, hyperkeratosis, spongiosis and irregular acanthosis. It was also found that there was a considerable formation of granulation tissue, which helps in formation of healthy new tissues.

Keywords: acanthosis, eczema, hyperkeratosis, leech application, spongiosis

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312 Parsonage Turner Syndrome PTS, Case Report

Authors: A. M. Bumbea, A. Musetescu, P. Ciurea, A. Bighea

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Objectives: The authors present a Parsonage Turner syndrome, a rare disease characterized by onset in apparently healthy person with shoulder and/or arm pain, sensory deficit, motor deficit. The causes are not established, could be determinate by vaccination, postoperative, immunologic disease, post traumatic etc. Methods: The authors present a woman case, 32 years old, (in 2006), no medical history, with arm pain and no other symptom. The onset was sudden with pain at very high level quantified as 10 to a 0 to 10 scale, with no response to classical analgesic and corticoids. The only drugs which can reduce the intensity of pain were oxycodone hydrochloride, 60 mg daily and pregabalinum150 mg daily. After two weeks the intensity of pain was reduced to 5. The patient started a rehabilitation program. After 6 weeks the patient associated sensory and motor deficit. We performed electromyography for upper limb that showed incomplete denervation with reduced neural transmission speed. The patient receives neurotrophic drugs and painkillers for a long period and physical and kinetic therapy. After 6 months the pain was reduced to level 2 and the patient maintained only 150 mg pregabalinum for another 6 months. Then, the evaluation showed no pain but general amiotrophy in upper limb. Results: At the evaluation in 2009, the patient developed a rheumatoid syndrome with tender and swelling joints, but no positive inflammation test, no antibodies or rheumatoid factor. After two years, in 2011 the patient develops an increase of antinuclear antibodies. This context certifies the diagnosis of lupus and the patient receives the specific therapy. Conclusions: This case is not a typical case of onset of lupus with PTS, but the onset of PTS could include the onset of an immune disease.

Keywords: lupus, arm pain, patient, swelling

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311 Metropolitan Governance in Statutory Plan Making Process

Authors: Vibhore Bakshi

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This research paper is a step towards understanding the role of governance in the plan preparation process. It addresses the complexities of the peri-urban, historical constructions, politics and policies of sustainability, and legislative frameworks. The paper reflects on the Delhi NCT as one of the classical cases that have happened to witness different structural changes in the master plan around 1981, 2001, 2021, and Proposed Draft 2041. The Delhi Landsat imageries for 1989 and 2018 show an increase in the built-up areas around the periphery of NCT. The peri-urbanization has been a result of increasing in-migration to peri–urban areas of Delhi. The built-up extraction for years 1981, 1991, 2001, 2011, and 2018 highlights the growing peri-urbanization on scarce land therefore, it becomes equally important to research the history of the land and its legislative measures. It is interesting to understand the streaks of changes that have occurred in the land of Delhi in accordance with the different master plans and land legislative policies. The process of masterplan process in Delhi has experienced a lot of complexities in juxtaposition to other metropolitan regions of the world. The paper identifies the shortcomings in the current master planning process approach in regard to the stage of the planning process, traditional planning approach, and lagging ICT-based interventions. The metropolitan governance systems across the globe and India depict diversity in the organizational setup and varied dissemination of functions. It addresses the complexity of the peri-urban, historical constructions, politics and policies of sustainability, and legislative frameworks.

Keywords: governance, land provisions, built-up areas, in migration, built up extraction, master planning process, legislative policies, metropolitan governance systems

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310 A Trail of Decoding a Classical Riddle: An Analysis of Russian Military Strategy

Authors: Karin Megheșan, Alexandra Popescu, Teodora Dobre

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In the past few years, the Russian Federation has become a central point on the security agenda of the most important international actors, due to its reloaded aggressiveness of foreign policy. Vladimir Putin, the actual president of the Russian Federation, has proven that Russia can and has the willingness to become the powerful actor that used to be during the Cold War. Russia’s new behavior on the international scene showed that Russia has not only expansionist (where expansionist is not only in terms of territory but also of ideology) intentions, but also the necessary resources, to build an empire that may have the power to counterbalance the influence of the United States and stop the expansion of the North-Atlantic Treaty Organization in an equation understood of multipolar Russian view. But in order to do this, there is necessary to follow a well-established plan or policy. Thus, the aim of the paper is to discuss how has the foreign policy of the Russian Federation evolved under the influence of the military and security strategies of the Russian nation, to briefly examine some of the factors that sculpture Russian foreign policy and behavior, in order to reshape a Russian (Soviet) profile so far considered antiquated. Our approach is an argument in favor of the analyses of the recent evolutions embedded in the course of history. In this context, the paper will include analytical thoughts about the Russian foreign policy and the latest strategic documents (security strategy and military doctrine) adopted by the Putin administration, with the purpose to highlight the main direction of action followed by all these documents together. The paper concludes that the military component is to be found in all these strategic documents, as well as at the core of Russian national interest, aspect that proves that Russia is still the adept of the traditional realist paradigm, reshaped in a Russian theory of the multipolar world.

Keywords: hybrid warfare, military component, military doctrine, Russian foreign policy, security strategy

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309 [Keynote Talk]: Three Dimensional Finite Element Analysis of Functionally Graded Radiation Shielding Nanoengineered Sandwich Composites

Authors: Nasim Abuali Galehdari, Thomas J. Ryan, Ajit D. Kelkar

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In recent years, nanotechnology has played an important role in the design of an efficient radiation shielding polymeric composites. It is well known that, high loading of nanomaterials with radiation absorption properties can enhance the radiation attenuation efficiency of shielding structures. However, due to difficulties in dispersion of nanomaterials into polymer matrices, there has been a limitation in higher loading percentages of nanoparticles in the polymer matrix. Therefore, the objective of the present work is to provide a methodology to fabricate and then to characterize the functionally graded radiation shielding structures, which can provide an efficient radiation absorption property along with good structural integrity. Sandwich structures composed of Ultra High Molecular Weight Polyethylene (UHMWPE) fabric as face sheets and functionally graded epoxy nanocomposite as core material were fabricated. A method to fabricate a functionally graded core panel with controllable gradient dispersion of nanoparticles is discussed. In order to optimize the design of functionally graded sandwich composites and to analyze the stress distribution throughout the sandwich composite thickness, a finite element method was used. The sandwich panels were discretized using 3-Dimensional 8 nodded brick elements. Classical laminate analysis in conjunction with simplified micromechanics equations were used to obtain the properties of the face sheets. The presented finite element model would provide insight into deformation and damage mechanics of the functionally graded sandwich composites from the structural point of view.

Keywords: nanotechnology, functionally graded material, radiation shielding, sandwich composites, finite element method

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308 Tackling Inequalities in Regional Health Care: Accompanying an Inter-Sectoral Cooperation Project between University Medicine and Regional Care Structures

Authors: Susanne Ferschl, Peter Holzmüller, Elisabeth Wacker

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Ageing populations, advances in medical sciences and digitalization, diversity and social disparities, as well as the increasing need for skilled healthcare professionals, are challenging healthcare systems around the globe. To address these challenges, future healthcare systems need to center on human needs taking into account the living environments that shape individuals’ knowledge of and opportunities to access healthcare. Moreover, health should be considered as a common good and an integral part of securing livelihoods for all people. Therefore, the adoption of a systems approach, as well as inter-disciplinary and inter-sectoral cooperation among healthcare providers, are essential. Additionally, the active engagement of target groups in the planning and design of healthcare structures is indispensable to understand and respect individuals’ health and livelihood needs. We will present the research project b4 – identifying needs | building bridges | developing health care in the social space, which is situated within this reasoning and accompanies the cross-sectoral cooperation project Brückenschlag (building bridges) in a Bavarian district. Brückenschlag seeks to explore effective ways of health care linking university medicine (Maximalversorgung | maximum care) with regional inpatient, outpatient, rehabilitative, and preventive care structures (Regionalversorgung | regional care). To create advantages for both (potential) patients and the involved cooperation partners, project b4 qualitatively assesses needs and motivations among professionals, population groups, and political stakeholders at individual and collective levels. Besides providing an overview of the project structure as well as of regional population and healthcare characteristics, the first results of qualitative interviews conducted with different health experts will be presented. Interviewed experts include managers of participating hospitals, nurses, medical specialists working in the hospital and registered doctors operating in practices in rural areas. At the end of the project life and based on the identified factors relevant to the success -and also for failure- of participatory cooperation in health care, the project aims at informing other districts embarking on similar systems-oriented and human-centered healthcare projects. Individuals’ health care needs in dependence on the social space in which they live will guide the development of recommendations.

Keywords: cross-sectoral collaboration in health care, human-centered health care, regional health care, individual and structural health conditions

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307 Obsession Unveiled: A Freud’s Psychoanalytical Analysis of Protagonist Fixations in Nabokov’s Lolita and Pamuk’s The Museum of Innocence

Authors: Kamilya Khamitova

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This study analyzes the overarching theme of obsession as portrayed through the two protagonists, Humbert Humbert and Kemal, in Vladimir Nabokov's Lolita and Orhan Pamuk's The Museum of Innocence through the lens of Freudian psychoanalytical theory of “transference.” Their obsessions are channeled into various forms of artistic expression following the loss of their beloved Lolita and Füsun. Employing psychoanalytical literary criticism, firmly grounded in the classical era of psychoanalysis, as pioneered by Sigmund Freud, this research explores the characters' psyches, revealing the concealed desires, conflicts, and symbolic manifestations within their relentless obsessions. The aim of this study is to unravel the psychological complexities of obsession, shedding light on the motivations and behaviors of Humbert and Kemal within the context of their respective narratives. Methodologically, this research employs close textual analysis of the novels, dissecting the protagonists' thoughts, actions, and artistic expressions. Through the lens of Freud's fundamental concept of “transference,” this analysis uncovers the protagonists' mechanisms of projecting their desires onto unattainable objects of desire—Lolita and Füsun. Humbert's pursuit of Lolita mirrors his unresolved emotional traumas and attempts to recapture the lost object of his childhood. In contrast, Kemal's fixation on Füsun is a desperate desire to fill an existential void, address a sense of inadequacy, and construct a semblance of immortality through the meticulous preservation of his memories with her. By adopting a psychoanalytic lens, this research provides a richer understanding of the characters, themes, and symbolism inherent in their artistic expressions of devotion.

Keywords: artistic expression, psychoanalysis of obsession, Sigmund Freud, transference

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306 Analyses of the Constitutional Identity in Hungary: A Case Study on the Concept of Constitutionalism and Legal Continuity in New Fundamental Law of Hungary

Authors: Zsuzsanna Fejes

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The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the legal history of constitutionalism in Hungary, in focus of the democratic transitions in 1989-1990, describing the historical and political background of the changes and presenting the main and most important features of the new democracy, and institutional and legal orders. In Hungary the evolved political, economic and moral crisis prior to the constitutional years 2010-11 had been such a constitutional moment, which led to an opportune and unavoidable change at the same time. The Hungarian constitutional power intended to adopt a new constitution, which was competent to create a common constitutional identity and to express a national unity. The Hungarian Parliament on 18th April 2011 passed the New Fundamental Law. The new Fundamental Law rich in national values meant a new challenge for the academics, lawyers, and political scientists. Not only the classical political science, but also the constitutional law and theory have to struggle with the interpretation of the new declarations about national constitutional values in the Fundamental Law. The main features and structure of the new Fundamental Law will be analysed, and given a detailed interpretation of the Preamble as a declaration of constitutional values. During the examination of the Preamble shall be cleared up the components of Hungarian statehood and national unity, individual and common human rights, the practical and theoretical demand on national sovereignty, and the content and possibilities for the interpretation of the achievements of the historical Constitution. These scopes of problems will be presented during the examination of the text of National Avowal, as a preamble of the Fundamental Law. It is examined whether the Fundamental Law itself could be suitable and sufficient means to citizens of Hungary to express the ideas therein as their own, it will be analysed how could the national and European common traditions, values and principles stated in the Fundamental Law mean maintenance in Hungary’s participation in the European integration.

Keywords: common constitutional values, constitutionalism, national identity, national sovereignty, national unity, statehood

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305 Fenton Sludge's Catalytic Ability with Synergistic Effects During Reuse for Landfill Leachate Treatment

Authors: Mohd Salim Mahtab, Izharul Haq Farooqi, Anwar Khursheed

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Advanced oxidation processes (AOPs) based on Fenton are versatile options for treating complex wastewaters containing refractory compounds. However, the classical Fenton process (CFP) has limitations, such as high sludge production and reagent dosage, which limit its broad use and result in secondary contamination. As a result, long-term solutions are required for process intensification and the removal of these impediments. This study shows that Fenton sludge could serve as a catalyst in the Fe³⁺/Fe²⁺ reductive pathway, allowing non-regenerated sludge to be reused for complex wastewater treatment, such as landfill leachate treatment, even in the absence of Fenton's reagents. Experiments with and without pH adjustments in stages I and II demonstrated that an acidic pH is desirable. Humic compounds in leachate could improve the cycle of Fe³⁺/Fe²⁺ under optimal conditions, and the chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal efficiency was 22±2% and 62±2%% in stages I and II, respectively. Furthermore, excellent total suspended solids (TSS) removal (> 95%) and color removal (> 80%) were obtained in stage II. The processes underlying synergistic (oxidation/coagulation/adsorption) effects were addressed. The design of the experiment (DOE) is growing increasingly popular and has thus been implemented in the chemical, water, and environmental domains. The relevance of the statistical model for the desired response was validated using the explicitly stated optimal conditions. The operational factors, characteristics of reused sludge, toxicity analysis, cost calculation, and future research objectives were also discussed. Reusing non-regenerated Fenton sludge, according to the study's findings, can minimize hazardous solid toxic emissions and total treatment costs.

Keywords: advanced oxidation processes, catalysis, Fe³⁺/Fe²⁺ cycle, fenton sludge

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304 Mechanical Behavior of Corroded RC Beams Strengthened by NSM CFRP Rods

Authors: Belal Almassri, Amjad Kreit, Firas Al Mahmoud, Raoul François

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Corrosion of steel in reinforced concrete leads to several major defects. Firstly, a reduction in the crosssectional area of the reinforcement and in its ductility results in premature bar failure. Secondly, the expansion of the corrosion products causes concrete cracking and steel–concrete bond deterioration and also affects the bending stiffness of the reinforced concrete members, causing a reduction in the overall load-bearing capacity of the reinforced concrete beams. This paper investigates the validity of a repair technique using Near Surface Mounted (NSM) carbon-fibre-reinforced polymer (CFRP) rods to restore the mechanical performance of corrosion-damaged RC beams. In the NSM technique, the CFRP rods are placed inside pre-cut grooves and are bonded to the concrete with epoxy adhesive. Experimental results were obtained on two beams: a corroded beam that had been exposed to natural corrosion for 25 years and a control beam, (both are 3 m long) repaired in bending only. Each beam was repaired with one 6-mm-diameter NSM CFRP rod. The beams were tested in a three-point bending test up to failure. Overall stiffness and crack maps were studied before and after the repair. Ultimate capacity, ductility and failure mode were also reviewed. Finally some comparisons were made between repaired and non-repaired beams in order to assess the effectiveness of the NSM technique. The experimental results showed that the NSM technique improved the overall characteristics (ultimate load capacity and stiffness) of the control and corroded beams and allowed sufficient ductility to be restored to the repaired corroded elements, thus restoring the safety margin, despite the non-classical mode of failure that occurred in the corroded beam, with the separation of the concrete cover due to corrosion products.

Keywords: carbon fibre, corrosion, strength, mechanical testing

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303 Enhancing Large Language Models' Data Analysis Capability with Planning-and-Execution and Code Generation Agents: A Use Case for Southeast Asia Real Estate Market Analytics

Authors: Kien Vu, Jien Min Soh, Mohamed Jahangir Abubacker, Piyawut Pattamanon, Soojin Lee, Suvro Banerjee

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Recent advances in Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI), in particular Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise to disrupt multiple industries at scale. However, LLMs also present unique challenges, notably, these so-called "hallucination" which is the generation of outputs that are not grounded in the input data that hinders its adoption into production. Common practice to mitigate hallucination problem is utilizing Retrieval Agmented Generation (RAG) system to ground LLMs'response to ground truth. RAG converts the grounding documents into embeddings, retrieve the relevant parts with vector similarity between user's query and documents, then generates a response that is not only based on its pre-trained knowledge but also on the specific information from the retrieved documents. However, the RAG system is not suitable for tabular data and subsequent data analysis tasks due to multiple reasons such as information loss, data format, and retrieval mechanism. In this study, we have explored a novel methodology that combines planning-and-execution and code generation agents to enhance LLMs' data analysis capabilities. The approach enables LLMs to autonomously dissect a complex analytical task into simpler sub-tasks and requirements, then convert them into executable segments of code. In the final step, it generates the complete response from output of the executed code. When deployed beta version on DataSense, the property insight tool of PropertyGuru, the approach yielded promising results, as it was able to provide market insights and data visualization needs with high accuracy and extensive coverage by abstracting the complexities for real-estate agents and developers from non-programming background. In essence, the methodology not only refines the analytical process but also serves as a strategic tool for real estate professionals, aiding in market understanding and enhancement without the need for programming skills. The implication extends beyond immediate analytics, paving the way for a new era in the real estate industry characterized by efficiency and advanced data utilization.

Keywords: large language model, reasoning, planning and execution, code generation, natural language processing, prompt engineering, data analysis, real estate, data sense, PropertyGuru

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302 An Initiative for Improving Pre-Service Teachers’ Pedagogical Content Knowledge in Mathematics

Authors: Taik Kim

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Mathematics anxiety has an important consequence for teacher practices that influence students’ attitudes and achievement. Elementary prospective teachers have the highest levels of mathematics anxiety in comparison with other college majors. In his teaching practice, the researcher developed a highly successful teaching model to reduce pre-service teachers’ higher math anxiety and simultaneously to improve their pedagogical math content knowledge. There were eighty one participants from 2015 to 2018 who took the Mathematics for Elementary Teachers I and II. As the analysis data indicated, elementary prospective teachers’ math anxiety was greatly reduced with improving their math pedagogical knowledge. U.S encounters a critical shortage of well qualified educators. To solve the issue, it is essential to engage students in a long-term commitmentto shape better teachers, who will, in turn, produce k-12 school students that are better-prepared for college students. It is imperative that new instructional strategies are implemented to improve student learning and address declining interest, poor preparedness, a lack of diverse representation, and low persistence of students in mathematics. Many four year college students take math courses from the math department in the College of Arts& Science and then take methodology courses from the College of Education. Before taking pedagogy, many students struggle in learning mathematics and lose their confidence. Since the content course focus on college level math, instead of pre service teachers’ teaching area, per se elementary math, they do not have a chance to improve their teaching skills on topics which eventually they teach. The research, a joint appointment of math and math education, has been involved in teaching content and pedagogy. As the result indicated, participants were able to math content at the same time how to teach. In conclusion, the new initiative to use several teaching strategies was able not only to increase elementary prospective teachers’ mathematical skills and knowledge but also to improve their attitude toward mathematics. We need an innovative teaching strategy which implements evidence-based tactics in redesigning a education and math to improve pre service teachers’math skills and which can improve students’ attitude toward math and students’ logical and reasoning skills. Implementation of these best practices in the local school district is particularly important because K-8 teachers are not generally familiar with lab-based instruction. At the same time, local school teachers will learn a new way how to teach math. This study can be a vital teacher education model expanding throughout the State and nationwide. In summary, this study yields invaluable information how to improve teacher education in the elementary level and, eventually, how to enhance K-8 students’ math achievement.

Keywords: quality of education and improvement method, teacher education, innovative teaching and learning methodologies, math education

Procedia PDF Downloads 98
301 Sensitivity Analysis and Solitary Wave Solutions to the (2+1)-Dimensional Boussinesq Equation in Dispersive Media

Authors: Naila Nasreen, Dianchen Lu

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This paper explores the dynamical behavior of the (2+1)-dimensional Boussinesq equation, which is a nonlinear water wave equation and is used to model wave packets in dispersive media with weak nonlinearity. This equation depicts how long wave made in shallow water propagates due to the influence of gravity. The (2+1)- dimensional Boussinesq equation combines the two-way propagation of the classical Boussinesq equation with the dependence on a second spatial variable, as that occurs in the two-dimensional Kadomstev- Petviashvili equation. This equation provides a description of head- on collision of oblique waves and it possesses some interesting properties. The governing model is discussed by the assistance of Ricatti equation mapping method, a relatively integration tool. The solutions have been extracted in different forms the solitary wave solutions as well as hyperbolic and periodic solutions. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis is demonstrated for the designed dynamical structural system’s wave profiles, where the soliton wave velocity and wave number parameters regulate the water wave singularity. In addition to being helpful for elucidating nonlinear partial differential equations, the method in use gives previously extracted solutions and extracts fresh exact solutions. Assuming the right values for the parameters, various graph in different shapes are sketched to provide information about the visual format of the earned results. This paper’s findings support the efficacy of the approach taken in enhancing nonlinear dynamical behavior. We believe this research will be of interest to a wide variety of engineers that work with engineering models. Findings show the effectiveness simplicity, and generalizability of the chosen computational approach, even when applied to complicated systems in a variety of fields, especially in ocean engineering.

Keywords: (2+1)-dimensional Boussinesq equation, solitary wave solutions, Ricatti equation mapping approach, nonlinear phenomena

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300 An Exponential Field Path Planning Method for Mobile Robots Integrated with Visual Perception

Authors: Magdy Roman, Mostafa Shoeib, Mostafa Rostom

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Global vision, whether provided by overhead fixed cameras, on-board aerial vehicle cameras, or satellite images can always provide detailed information on the environment around mobile robots. In this paper, an intelligent vision-based method of path planning and obstacle avoidance for mobile robots is presented. The method integrates visual perception with a new proposed field-based path-planning method to overcome common path-planning problems such as local minima, unreachable destination and unnecessary lengthy paths around obstacles. The method proposes an exponential angle deviation field around each obstacle that affects the orientation of a close robot. As the robot directs toward, the goal point obstacles are classified into right and left groups, and a deviation angle is exponentially added or subtracted to the orientation of the robot. Exponential field parameters are chosen based on Lyapunov stability criterion to guarantee robot convergence to the destination. The proposed method uses obstacles' shape and location, extracted from global vision system, through a collision prediction mechanism to decide whether to activate or deactivate obstacles field. In addition, a search mechanism is developed in case of robot or goal point is trapped among obstacles to find suitable exit or entrance. The proposed algorithm is validated both in simulation and through experiments. The algorithm shows effectiveness in obstacles' avoidance and destination convergence, overcoming common path planning problems found in classical methods.

Keywords: path planning, collision avoidance, convergence, computer vision, mobile robots

Procedia PDF Downloads 181
299 A Multi-Modal Virtual Walkthrough of the Virtual Past and Present Based on Panoramic View, Crowd Simulation and Acoustic Heritage on Mobile Platform

Authors: Lim Chen Kim, Tan Kian Lam, Chan Yi Chee

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This research presents a multi-modal simulation in the reconstruction of the past and the construction of present in digital cultural heritage on mobile platform. In bringing the present life, the virtual environment is generated through a presented scheme for rapid and efficient construction of 360° panoramic view. Then, acoustical heritage model and crowd model are presented and improvised into the 360° panoramic view. For the reconstruction of past life, the crowd is simulated and rendered in an old trading port. However, the keystone of this research is in a virtual walkthrough that shows the virtual present life in 2D and virtual past life in 3D, both in an environment of virtual heritage sites in George Town through mobile device. Firstly, the 2D crowd is modelled and simulated using OpenGL ES 1.1 on mobile platform. The 2D crowd is used to portray the present life in 360° panoramic view of a virtual heritage environment based on the extension of Newtonian Laws. Secondly, the 2D crowd is animated and rendered into 3D with improved variety and incorporated into the virtual past life using Unity3D Game Engine. The behaviours of the 3D models are then simulated based on the enhancement of the classical model of Boid algorithm. Finally, a demonstration system is developed and integrated with the models, techniques and algorithms of this research. The virtual walkthrough is demonstrated to a group of respondents and is evaluated through the user-centred evaluation by navigating around the demonstration system. The results of the evaluation based on the questionnaires have shown that the presented virtual walkthrough has been successfully deployed through a multi-modal simulation and such a virtual walkthrough would be particularly useful in a virtual tour and virtual museum applications.

Keywords: Boid Algorithm, Crowd Simulation, Mobile Platform, Newtonian Laws, Virtual Heritage

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298 Life Cycle Analysis of the Antibacterial Gel Product Using Iso 14040 and Recipe 2016 Method

Authors: Pablo Andres Flores Siguenza, Noe Rodrigo Guaman Guachichullca

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Sustainable practices have received increasing attention from academics and companies in recent decades due to, among many factors, the market advantages they generate, global commitments, and policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, addressing resource scarcity, and rethinking waste management. The search for ways to promote sustainability leads industries to abandon classical methods and resort to the use of innovative strategies, which in turn are based on quantitative analysis methods and tools such as life cycle analysis (LCA), which is the basis for sustainable production and consumption, since it is a method that analyzes objectively, methodically, systematically, and scientifically the environmental impact caused by a process/product during its entire life cycle. The objective of this study is to develop an LCA of the antibacterial gel product throughout its entire supply chain (SC) under the methodology of ISO 14044 with the help of Gabi software and the Recipe 2016 method. The selection of the case study product was made based on its relevance in the current context of the COVID-19 pandemic and its exponential increase in production. For the development of the LCA, data from a Mexican company are used, and 3 scenarios are defined to obtain the midpoint and endpoint environmental impacts both by phases and globally. As part of the results, the most outstanding environmental impact categories are climate change, fossil fuel depletion, and terrestrial ecotoxicity, and the stage that generates the most pollution in the entire SC is the extraction of raw materials. The study serves as a basis for the development of different sustainability strategies, demonstrates the usefulness of an LCA, and agrees with different authors on the role and importance of this methodology in sustainable development.

Keywords: sustainability, sustainable development, life cycle analysis, environmental impact, antibacterial gel

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297 From Battles to Balance and Back: Document Analysis of EU Copyright in the Digital Era

Authors: Anette Alén

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Intellectual property (IP) regimes have traditionally been designed to integrate various conflicting elements stemming from private entitlement and the public good. In IP laws and regulations, this design takes the form of specific uses of protected subject-matter without the right-holder’s consent, or exhaustion of exclusive rights upon market release, and the like. More recently, the pursuit of ‘balance’ has gained ground in the conceptualization of these conflicting elements both in terms of IP law and related policy. This can be seen, for example, in European Union (EU) copyright regime, where ‘balance’ has become a key element in argumentation, backed up by fundamental rights reasoning. This development also entails an ever-expanding dialogue between the IP regime and the constitutional safeguards for property, free speech, and privacy, among others. This study analyses the concept of ‘balance’ in EU copyright law: the research task is to examine the contents of the concept of ‘balance’ and the way it is operationalized and pursued, thereby producing new knowledge on the role and manifestations of ‘balance’ in recent copyright case law and regulatory instruments in the EU. The study discusses two particular pieces of legislation, the EU Digital Single Market (DSM) Copyright Directive (EU) 2019/790 and the finalized EU Artificial Intelligence (AI) Act, including some of the key preparatory materials, as well as EU Court of Justice (CJEU) case law pertaining to copyright in the digital era. The material is examined by means of document analysis, mapping the ways ‘balance’ is approached and conceptualized in the documents. Similarly, the interaction of fundamental rights as part of the balancing act is also analyzed. Doctrinal study of law is also employed in the analysis of legal sources. This study suggests that the pursuit of balance is, for its part, conducive to new battles, largely due to the advancement of digitalization and more recent developments in artificial intelligence. Indeed, the ‘balancing act’ rather presents itself as a way to bypass or even solidify some of the conflicting interests in a complex global digital economy. Indeed, such a conceptualization, especially when accompanied by non-critical or strategically driven fundamental rights argumentation, runs counter to the genuine acknowledgment of new types of conflicting interests in the copyright regime. Therefore, a more radical approach, including critical analysis of the normative basis and fundamental rights implications of the concept of ‘balance’, is required to readjust copyright law and regulations for the digital era. Notwithstanding the focus on executing the study in the context of the EU copyright regime, the results bear wider significance for the digital economy, especially due to the platform liability regime in the DSM Directive and with the AI Act including objectives of a ‘level playing field’ whereby compliance with EU copyright rules seems to be expected among system providers.

Keywords: balance, copyright, fundamental rights, platform liability, artificial intelligence

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296 Data Mining Spatial: Unsupervised Classification of Geographic Data

Authors: Chahrazed Zouaoui

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In recent years, the volume of geospatial information is increasing due to the evolution of communication technologies and information, this information is presented often by geographic information systems (GIS) and stored on of spatial databases (BDS). The classical data mining revealed a weakness in knowledge extraction at these enormous amounts of data due to the particularity of these spatial entities, which are characterized by the interdependence between them (1st law of geography). This gave rise to spatial data mining. Spatial data mining is a process of analyzing geographic data, which allows the extraction of knowledge and spatial relationships from geospatial data, including methods of this process we distinguish the monothematic and thematic, geo- Clustering is one of the main tasks of spatial data mining, which is registered in the part of the monothematic method. It includes geo-spatial entities similar in the same class and it affects more dissimilar to the different classes. In other words, maximize intra-class similarity and minimize inter similarity classes. Taking account of the particularity of geo-spatial data. Two approaches to geo-clustering exist, the dynamic processing of data involves applying algorithms designed for the direct treatment of spatial data, and the approach based on the spatial data pre-processing, which consists of applying clustering algorithms classic pre-processed data (by integration of spatial relationships). This approach (based on pre-treatment) is quite complex in different cases, so the search for approximate solutions involves the use of approximation algorithms, including the algorithms we are interested in dedicated approaches (clustering methods for partitioning and methods for density) and approaching bees (biomimetic approach), our study is proposed to design very significant to this problem, using different algorithms for automatically detecting geo-spatial neighborhood in order to implement the method of geo- clustering by pre-treatment, and the application of the bees algorithm to this problem for the first time in the field of geo-spatial.

Keywords: mining, GIS, geo-clustering, neighborhood

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295 Exploring the Growth Path under Coupling Relationship between Space and Economy of Mountain Village and Townlets: Case Study of Southwest China

Authors: Runlin Liu, Shilong Li

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China is a mountainous country, with two-thirds of its territory covered by plateaus, hills, and mountains, and nearly half of the cities and towns are distributed in mountainous areas. Compared with the environmental constraints in the development path of cities and towns in the plains, there are heterogeneities in aspects such as spatial characteristics, growth mode, and ecological protection and so on for mountain village and townlets, and the development path of mountain village and townlets has a bidirectional relationship between mountain space and economic growth. Based on classical growth theory, this article explores the two-dimensional coupling relation between space and economy in mountain village and townlets under background of rural rejuvenation. GIS technology is adopted in the study to analyze spatial trends and patterns, economical spatial differentiation characteristics of village and townlets. This powerful tool can also help differentiate and analyze limiting factors and assessment systems in the economic growth of village and townlets under spatial dimension of mountainous space. To make the research more specific, this article selects mountain village and townlets in Southwest China as the object of study; this provides good cases for analyzing parallel coupling mechanism of the duality structure system between economic growth and spatial expansion and discussing the path selection of spatial economic growth of mountain village and towns with multiple constraints. The research results can provide quantitative references for the spatial and economic development paths of mountain villages and towns, which is helpful in realizing efficient and high-quality development mode with equal emphasis on spatial and economic benefits for these type of towns.

Keywords: coupling mechanism, geographic information technology, mountainous town, synergetic development, spatial economy

Procedia PDF Downloads 139
294 Technology, Ethics and Experience: Understanding Interactions as Ethical Practice

Authors: Joan Casas-Roma

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Technology has become one of the main channels through which people engage in most of their everyday activities; from working to learning, or even when socializing, technology often acts as both an enabler and a mediator of such activities. Moreover, the affordances and interactions created by those technological tools determine the way in which the users interact with one another, as well as how they relate to the relevant environment, thus favoring certain kinds of actions and behaviors while discouraging others. In this regard, virtue ethics theories place a strong focus on a person's daily practice (understood as their decisions, actions, and behaviors) as the means to develop and enhance their habits and ethical competences --such as their awareness and sensitivity towards certain ethically-desirable principles. Under this understanding of ethics, this set of technologically-enabled affordances and interactions can be seen as the possibility space where the daily practice of their users takes place in a wide plethora of contexts and situations. At this point, the following question pops into mind: could these affordances and interactions be shaped in a way that would promote behaviors and habits basedonethically-desirable principles into their users? In the field of game design, the MDA framework (which stands for Mechanics, Dynamics, Aesthetics) explores how the interactions enabled within the possibility space of a game can lead to creating certain experiences and provoking specific reactions to the players. In this sense, these interactions can be shaped in ways thatcreate experiences to raise the players' awareness and sensitivity towards certain topics or principles. This research brings together the notions of technological affordances, the notions of practice and practical wisdom from virtue ethics, and the MDA framework from game design in order to explore how the possibility space created by technological interactions can be shaped in ways that enable and promote actions and behaviors supporting certain ethically-desirable principles. When shaped accordingly, interactions supporting certain ethically-desirable principlescould allow their users to carry out the kind of practice that, according to virtue ethics theories, provides the grounds to develop and enhance their awareness, sensitivity, and ethical reasoning capabilities. Moreover, and because ethical practice can happen collaterally in almost every context, decision, and action, this additional layer could potentially be applied in a wide variety of technological tools, contexts, and functionalities. This work explores the theoretical background, as well as the initial considerations and steps that would be needed in order to harness the potential ethically-desirable benefits that technology can bring, once it is understood as the space where most of their users' daily practice takes place.

Keywords: ethics, design methodology, human-computer interaction, philosophy of technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 149
293 Effect of Chemical Mutagen on Seeds Germination of Lima Bean

Authors: G. Ultanbekova, Zh. Suleimenova, Zh. Rakhmetova, G. Mombekova, S. Mantieva

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Plant Growth Promoting Rhizobacteria (PGPR) are a group of free-living bacteria that colonize the rhizosphere, enhance plant growth of many cereals and other important agricultural crops and protect plants from disease and abiotic stresses through a wide variety of mechanisms. The use of PGPR has been proven to be an environmentally sound way of increasing crop yields by facilitating plant growth. In the present study, strain improvement of PGPR isolates were carried out by chemical mutagenesis for the improvement of growth and yield of lima bean. Induced mutagenesis is widely used for the selection of microorganisms producing biologically active substances and further improving their activities. Strain improvement is usually done by classical mutagenesis which involves exposing the microbes to chemical or physical mutagens. The strains of Pseudomonas putida 4/1, Azotobacter chroococcum Р-29 and Bacillus subtilis were subjected to mutation process for strain improvement by treatment with a chemical agent (sodium nitrite) to cause mutation and were observed for its consequent action on the seeds germination and plant growth of lima bean (Phaseolus lunatus). Bacterial mutant strains of Pseudomonas putida M-1, Azotobacter chroococcum M-1 and Bacillus subtilis M-1, treated with sodium nitrite in the concentration of 5 mg/ml for 120 min, were found effective to enhance the germination of lima bean seeds compared to parent strains. Moreover, treatment of the lima bean seeds with a mutant strain of Bacillus subtilis M-1 had a significant stimulation effect on plant growth. The length of the stems and roots of lima bean treated with Bacillus subtilis M-1 increased significantly in comparison with parent strain in 1.6 and 1.3 times, respectively.

Keywords: chemical mutagenesis, germination, kidney bean, plant growth promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR)

Procedia PDF Downloads 188
292 A Trend Based Forecasting Framework of the ATA Method and Its Performance on the M3-Competition Data

Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

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It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

Procedia PDF Downloads 169