Search results for: earning per share (EPS)
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1396

Search results for: earning per share (EPS)

466 Community, Identity, and Resistance in Minority Literature: Arab American Poets - Samuel Hazo, Nathalie Handal, and Naomi Shihab Nye

Authors: Reem Saad Alqahtani

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Drawing on minority literature, this research highlights the role of three contemporary Arab American writers, considering the significance of the historical and cultural contexts of the brutal attacks of 9/11. The focus of the research is to draw attention to the poetry of Samuel Hazo, Nathalie Handal, and Naomi Shihab Nye as representatives of the identity crisis, whose experiences left them feeling marginalized and alienated in both societies, and reflected as one of the ethnic American minority groups, as demonstrated in their poetry, with a special focus on hybridity, resistance, identity, and empowerment. The study explores the writers’ post-9/11 experience, affected by the United States’ long history of marginalization and discrimination against people of colour, placing Arab American literature with that of other ethnic American groups who share the same experience and contribute to composing literature characterized by the aesthetics of cultural hybridity, cultural complexity, and the politics of minorities to promote solidarity and coalition building. Indeed, the three selected Arab American writers have found a link between their narration and the identity of the exiled by establishing an identity that is a kind of synthesis of diverse identities of Western reality and Eastern nostalgia. The approaches applied in this study will include historical/biographical, postcolonial, and discourse analysis. The first will be used to emphasize the influence of the biographical aspects related to the community, identity, and resistance of the three poets on their poetry. The second is used to investigate the effects of postcolonialism on the poets and their responses to it, while the third understand the sociocultural, political, and historical dimensions of the texts, establishing these poets as representative of the Arab American experience. This study is significant because it will help shed light on the importance of the Arabic hybrid identity in creating resistance to minority communities within American society.

Keywords: Arab American, identity, hybridity, post-9/11

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465 Traumatic Chiasmal Syndrome Following Traumatic Brain Injury

Authors: Jiping Cai, Ningzhi Wangyang, Jun Shao

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Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality that leads to structural and functional damage in several parts of the brain, such as cranial nerves, optic nerve tract or other circuitry involved in vision and occipital lobe, depending on its location and severity. As a result, the function associated with vision processing and perception are significantly affected and cause blurred vision, double vision, decreased peripheral vision and blindness. Here two cases complaining of monocular vision loss (actually temporal hemianopia) due to traumatic chiasmal syndrome after frontal head injury were reported, and were compared the findings with individual case reports published in the literature. Reported cases of traumatic chiasmal syndrome appear to share some common features, such as injury to the frontal bone and fracture of the anterior skull base. The degree of bitemporal hemianopia and visual loss acuity have a variable presentation and was not necessarily related to the severity of the craniocerebral trauma. Chiasmal injury may occur even in the absence bony chip impingement. Isolated bitemporal hemianopia is rare and clinical improvement usually may not occur. Mechanisms of damage to the optic chiasm after trauma include direct tearing, contusion haemorrhage and contusion necrosis, and secondary mechanisms such as cell death, inflammation, edema, neurogenesis impairment and axonal damage associated with TBI. Beside visual field test, MRI evaluation of optic pathways seems to the strong objective evidence to demonstrate the impairment of the integrity of visual systems following TBI. Therefore, traumatic chiasmal syndrome should be considered as a differential diagnosis by both neurosurgeons and ophthalmologists in patients presenting with visual impairment, especially bitemporal hemianopia after head injury causing frontal and anterior skull base fracture.

Keywords: bitemporal hemianopia, brain injury, optic chiasma, traumatic chiasmal syndrome.

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464 Social Media as a Tool for Medication Adherence and Personal Health Management

Authors: Huang Wei-Chi, Li Wei, Yu Tien-Chieh

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Medication adherence is crucial for treatment success. Adherence problem is common in patients with polypharmacy, especially in the geriatric population who are vulnerable to multiple chronic conditions but averagely less knowledgeable about diseases and medications. In order to help patients take medications appropriately and enhance the understanding of diseases or medications, a Line official account named e-Pharmacist was designed. The line is a popular freeware app with the highest penetration rate (95.7%) in Taiwan. The interface of e-Pharmacist is user-friendly for easy-to-read and convenient operating. Differ from other medication adherence apps, users just added e-Pharmacist as a LINE friend without installing any more apps and the drug lists were automatically downloaded from the personal electronic medical records with security permission. Over and above medication reminder, several additional capabilities were set up and engaged in the platform of e-Pharmacist including prescription refill reservation, laboratory examination consultation, medical appointment registration, and “Daily Health Log” where patients can record and track data of blood pressure/blood sugar and daily meals for self-health management as well as can share the important information to clinical professionals when seeking medical help. Additionally, a Line chatbot was utilized to provide tailored medicine information for the individual user. From July 2020 to March 2022, around 3000 patients added e-pharmacist as Line friends. Every day more than 1500 patients receive messages from e-pharmacist to notify them to take medicine. Thanks to the e-pharmacist alert system and Chatbot, the low-compliance patients (defined by Program on Adherence to Medication, PAM) significantly dropped from 36% to 6%, whereas the high-compliance patients dramatically increased from 13% to 77%. The user satisfaction is 98%. In brief, an e-pharmacist is not only a medication reminder but also a tailored personal assistant with value-added service for health management.

Keywords: e-pharmacist, self-health management, medication reminder, value-added service

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463 Circle Work as a Relational Praxis to Facilitate Collaborative Learning within Higher Education: A Decolonial Pedagogical Framework for Teaching and Learning in the Virtual Classroom

Authors: Jennifer Nutton, Gayle Ployer, Ky Scott, Jenny Morgan

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Working in a circle within higher education creates a decolonial space of mutual respect, responsibility, and reciprocity that facilitates collaborative learning and deep connections among learners and instructors. This approach is beyond simply facilitating a group in a circle but opens the door to creating a sacred space connecting each member to the land, to the Indigenous peoples who have taken care of the lands since time immemorial, to one another, and to one’s own positionality. These deep connections not only center human knowledges and relationships but also acknowledges responsibilities to land. Working in a circle as a relational pedagogical praxis also disrupts institutional power dynamics by creating a space of collaborative learning and deep connections in the classroom. Inherent within circle work is to facilitate connections not just academically but emotionally, physically, culturally, and spiritually. Recent literature supports the use of online talking circles, finding that it can offer a more relational and experiential learning environment, which is often absent in the virtual world and has been made more evident and necessary since the pandemic. These deeper experiences of learning and connection, rooted in both knowledge and the land, can then be shared with openness and vulnerability with one another, facilitating growth and change. This process of beginning with the land is critical to ensure we have the grounding to obstruct the ongoing realities of colonialism. The authors, who identify as both Indigenous and non-Indigenous, as both educators and learners, reflect on their teaching and learning experiences in circle. They share a relational pedagogical praxis framework that has been successful in educating future social workers, environmental activists, and leaders in social and human services, health, legal and political fields.

Keywords: circle work, relational pedagogies, decolonization, distance education

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462 Preparing Faculty to Deliver Academic Continuity during and after a Disaster

Authors: Melissa Houston

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Political pressures, financial restraints, and recent legislation has led to administrators’ at academic institutions to rely upon online education as a viable means for delivering education to students anytime and anywhere. Administrators at academic institutions have utilized online education as a way to ensure that academic continuity takes place while campuses are physically closed or are recovering from damages during and after disaster. There is a gap in the research as to how to best train faculty for academic continuity during and after disasters occur. The lack of available research regarding how faculty members at academic institutions prepared themselves prior to a disaster served as a major rationale for this study. The problem that was addressed in this phenomenological study was to identify the training needed by faculty to provide academic continuity during and after times of disaster. The purpose of the phenomenological study was to provide further knowledge and understanding of the training needed by faculty to provide academic continuity after a disaster. Data collection from this study will help human resource professionals as well as administrators of academic institutions to better prepare faculty to provide academic continuity in the future. Participants were recruited on LinkedIn and were qualified as having been faculty who taught traditional courses during or after a disaster. Faculty members were asked a series of open-ended questions to gain understanding of their experiences of how they acquired training for themselves for academic continuity during and after a disaster. The findings from this study showed that faculty members identified assistance needed including professional development in the form of training and support, communication, and technological resources in order to provide academic continuity. The first conclusion from this study was that academic institutions need to support their students, staff and faculty with disaster training and the resources needed to provide academic continuity during and after disasters. The second conclusion from this study is that while disasters and other academic institution incidents are occurring more frequently, limited funding and the push for online education has created limited resources for academic institutions. The need to create partnerships and consortiums with other academic institutions and communities is crucial for the success and sustainability of academic institutions. Through these partnerships and consortiums academic institutions can share resources, knowledge, and training.

Keywords: training, faculty, disaster, academic continuity

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461 Integration of Immigrant Students into Local Education System

Authors: Suheyla Demi̇rkol Orak

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The requirement of inclusive education is one of the utmost important results of both regular and irregular immigration. The matter in the case of Syrian immigrants is even worse than the other immigrants cases in world history since a massive immigration wave has affected all world countries' socio-economic profiles. When Syrians immigrated from Syria all over the world, they aimed to survive and left behind the war, but surviving is not optional occasion without handling language-related problems. Humans exist and preserve their existence with their language. That is a matter of concern for the integration of Syrians into the hosting countries. Many countries are proceeding with various programs to integrate Syrians into the majority groups by either assimilation or adaptation policies. Turkey has got the lion's share of the Syrian immigration apple, and in the same vein with this situation, its language education system should be analyzed severely in order to come up with a perfect match program for the integration of Syrians. It aimed to generate an inclusive education model for catalyzing the integration process of immigrant Syrian students into the majority socio-economic group via overcoming the language barrier. The identity of the immigrants is prioritized. The study follows a narrative literature review, which aims to review and critique relevant literature and offers a new conceptualization derived from the previous literature. The study derives a critical localized bilingual education model. As the outcome of the narrative literature review, a bilingual education model which prioritized the identity of the target community was designed. In the present study, main bilingual education programs and most of the countries' bilingual education policies were reviewed critically and suggestions were listed for the Syrian immigrants dominantly in Turkey and suggested to be benefitted by the other countries through localizing the practices.

Keywords: bi/multilingual education, sheltered education, immigrants, glocalization, submersion program, immersion program

Procedia PDF Downloads 63
460 Dynamic Control Theory: A Behavioral Modeling Approach to Demand Forecasting amongst Office Workers Engaged in a Competition on Energy Shifting

Authors: Akaash Tawade, Manan Khattar, Lucas Spangher, Costas J. Spanos

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Many grids are increasing the share of renewable energy in their generation mix, which is causing the energy generation to become less controllable. Buildings, which consume nearly 33% of all energy, are a key target for demand response: i.e., mechanisms for demand to meet supply. Understanding the behavior of office workers is a start towards developing demand response for one sector of building technology. The literature notes that dynamic computational modeling can be predictive of individual action, especially given that occupant behavior is traditionally abstracted from demand forecasting. Recent work founded on Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) has provided a promising conceptual basis for modeling behavior, personal states, and environment using control theoretic principles. Here, an adapted linear dynamical system of latent states and exogenous inputs is proposed to simulate energy demand amongst office workers engaged in a social energy shifting game. The energy shifting competition is implemented in an office in Singapore that is connected to a minigrid of buildings with a consistent 'price signal.' This signal is translated into a 'points signal' by a reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm to influence participant energy use. The dynamic model functions at the intersection of the points signals, baseline energy consumption trends, and SCT behavioral inputs to simulate future outcomes. This study endeavors to analyze how the dynamic model trains an RL agent and, subsequently, the degree of accuracy to which load deferability can be simulated. The results offer a generalizable behavioral model for energy competitions that provides the framework for further research on transfer learning for RL, and more broadly— transactive control.

Keywords: energy demand forecasting, social cognitive behavioral modeling, social game, transfer learning

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459 Gender-Based Differences in the Social Judgment of Hungarian Politicians' Sex Scandals

Authors: Sara Dalma Galgoczi, Judith Gabriella Kengyel

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Sex scandals are quite an engaging topic to work with, especially with their judgment in society. Most people are interested in other people's lives, specifically in public figures' such as celebrities or politicians, because ordinary people feel like they have the right to know more things about the famous and notorious ones than they would probably willing to share. Intimacy and sexual acts aren't exceptions; moreover, sexuality is one of the central interests of humans ever since. Besides, knowing and having an opinion about any kind of scandal can change even whole social groups or classes estimation of anyone. This study aims to research the social judgment of some Hungarian politicians' sex scandals and asks important questions like diverse public opinions in the light of gender or delegates’ abuse of power. Considering that this study is about collecting and evaluating opinions from the public, and no one before researched and published this exact topic and cases, an online survey was created. In the survey were different sections. We collected data about party-preference, conservativism-liberalism scale; then we used the following questionnaires: from Zero-sum perspective with regard to gender equality (Ruthig, Kehn, Gamblin, Vanderzanden & Jones, 2017), Ambivalent Sexism Inventory (ASI; Glick & Fiske, 1996), Ambivalence Toward Men Inventory (AMI; Glick & Fiske, 1999). Finally, 5 short summaries were presented about five Hungarian politicians' sex scandal cases (3 males, 2 females) from the recent past. These stories were followed by questions about their opinion of the party and attitudes towards the parties' reactions to the cases. We came to the conclusion that people are more permissive with the scandals of men, and benevolent sexism and ambivalence towards men mediate this relation. Men tend to see these cases as part of politicians' private lives more than women. Party preference had a significant effect - people tend to pass a sentence the delegates of the opposing parties, and they rather release the delegates of their preferred party.

Keywords: sex scandal, sexism, social judgement, politician

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458 Training for Digital Manufacturing: A Multilevel Teaching Model

Authors: Luís Rocha, Adam Gąska, Enrico Savio, Michael Marxer, Christoph Battaglia

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The changes observed in the last years in the field of manufacturing and production engineering, popularly known as "Fourth Industry Revolution", utilizes the achievements in the different areas of computer sciences, introducing new solutions at almost every stage of the production process, just to mention such concepts as mass customization, cloud computing, knowledge-based engineering, virtual reality, rapid prototyping, or virtual models of measuring systems. To effectively speed up the production process and make it more flexible, it is necessary to tighten the bonds connecting individual stages of the production process and to raise the awareness and knowledge of employees of individual sectors about the nature and specificity of work in other stages. It is important to discover and develop a suitable education method adapted to the specificities of each stage of the production process, becoming an extremely crucial issue to exploit the potential of the fourth industrial revolution properly. Because of it, the project “Train4Dim” (T4D) intends to develop complex training material for digital manufacturing, including content for design, manufacturing, and quality control, with a focus on coordinate metrology and portable measuring systems. In this paper, the authors present an approach to using an active learning methodology for digital manufacturing. T4D main objective is to develop a multi-degree (apprenticeship up to master’s degree studies) and educational approach that can be adapted to different teaching levels. It’s also described the process of creating the underneath methodology. The paper will share the steps to achieve the aims of the project (training model for digital manufacturing): 1) surveying the stakeholders, 2) Defining the learning aims, 3) producing all contents and curriculum, 4) training for tutors, and 5) Pilot courses test and improvements.

Keywords: learning, Industry 4.0, active learning, digital manufacturing

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457 Is Class Struggle Still Useful for the Street Children Who Are Working and Committing Crimes in the Urban City of Bangladesh?

Authors: Shidratul Moontaha Suha

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Violence is organized and utilized differently in various communities across the globe. The capacity to employ violence in numerous societies is largely limited to the apparatus of the state, like law enforcement officers, and in a small share of contexts, it is controlled within the state institutions as per the rule of law. Contrastingly, in many other societies, a broad array of players, mainly organized criminal gangs, are using violence on a substantial scale to agitate against social ills or attain personal interests. The present paper examined the role of social injustice in driving children living off and on the streets of Dhaka, Bangladesh, into joining organized criminal gangs and committing crimes. The study entailed a comprehensive review of existing literature with theoretical analyses based on three theories: the Marxist’s theory of capitalism and class struggle, the Weberian model of social stratification theory, and the social disorganization theory. The analysis revealed that, in Dhaka, Bangladesh, criminal gangs emerged from social disorganization of communities characterized by absolute poverty, residential mobility, and population heterogeneity, which promote deviance among the youth, and subsequently, led to the rise of organized gangs and delinquency. Although the latter was formed as a response to class struggle, they have been employed by the state and police as the tools of exploitation and oppression to rule the working class. The criminal gangs exploit the vulnerability of street children by using them as sources of cheap labor to peddle drugs, extort, or kill specific individuals who are against their ideals. In retrospect, the street children receive individual, group, and social protection. Therefore, social class struggle plays a central role in the proliferation of organized criminal gangs and the engagement of street children in criminal activities in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Keywords: cheap labor, organized crimes, poverty, social stratification, social children

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456 Determinants of Free Independent Traveler Tourist Expenditures in Israel: Quantile Regression Model

Authors: Shlomit Hon-Snir, Sharon Teitler-Regev, Anabel Lifszyc Friedlander

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Tourism, one of the world's largest and fastest growing industries, exerts a major economic influence. The number of international tourists is growing every year, and the relative portion of independent (FIT) tourists is growing as well. The characteristics of independent tourists differ from those of tourists who travel in organized trips. The purpose of the research is to identify the factors that affect the individual tourist's expenses in Israel: total expenses, expenses per day, expenses per tourist, expenses per day per tourist, accommodation expenses, dining expenses and transportation expenses. Most of the research analyzed the total expenses using OLS regression. The determinants influencing expenses were divided into four groups: budget constraints, socio-demographic data, psychological characteristics and travel-related characteristics. Since the effect of each variable may change over different levels of total expenses the quantile regression (QR) theory will be applied. The current research will use data collected by the Israeli Ministry of Tourism in 2015 from individual independent tourists at the end of their visit to Israel. Preliminary results show that: At lower levels of expense, only income has a (positive) effect on total expenses, while at higher levels of expense, both income and length of stay have (positive) effects. -The effect of income on total expenses is higher for higher levels of expenses than for lower level of expenses. -The number of sites visited during the trip has a (negative) effect on tourist accommodation expenses only for tourists with a high level of total expenses. Due to the increasing share of independent tourism in Israel and around the world and due to the importance of tourism to Israel, it is very important to understand the factors that influence the expenses and behavior of independent tourists. Understanding the factors that affect independent tourists' expenses in Israel can help Israeli policymakers in their promotional efforts to attract tourism to Israel.

Keywords: independent tourist, quantile regression theory, tourism expenses, tourism

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455 Teaching Translation in Brazilian Universities: A Study about the Possible Impacts of Translators’ Comments on the Cyberspace about Translator Education

Authors: Erica Lima

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The objective of this paper is to discuss relevant points about teaching translation in Brazilian universities and the possible impacts of blogs and social networks to translator education today. It is intended to analyze the curricula of Brazilian translation courses, contrasting them to information obtained from two social networking groups of great visibility in the area concerning essential characteristics to become a successful profession. Therefore, research has, as its main corpus, a few undergraduate translation programs’ syllabuses, as well as a few postings on social networks groups that specifically share professional opinions regarding the necessity for a translator to obtain a degree in translation to practice the profession. To a certain extent, such comments and their corresponding responses lead to the propagation of discourses which influence the ideas that aspiring translators and recent graduates end up having towards themselves and their undergraduate courses. The postings also show that many professionals do not have a clear position regarding the translator education; while refuting it, they also encourage “free” courses. It is thus observed that cyberspace constitutes, on the one hand, a place of mobilization of people in defense of similar ideas. However, on the other hand, it embodies a place of tension and conflict, in view of the fact that there are many participants and, as in any other situation of interlocution, disagreements may arise. From the postings, aspects related to professionalism were analyzed (including discussions about regulation), as well as questions about the classic dichotomies: theory/practice; art/technique; self-education/academic training. As partial result, the common interest regarding the valorization of the profession could be mentioned, although there is no consensus on the essential characteristics to be a good translator. It was also possible to observe that the set of socially constructed representations in the group reflects characteristics of the world situation of the translation courses (especially in some European countries and in the United States), which, in the first instance, does not accurately reflect the Brazilian idiosyncrasies of the area.

Keywords: cyberspace, teaching translation, translator education, university

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454 Problem Gambling in the Conceptualization of Health Professionals: A Qualitative Analysis of the Discourses Produced by Psychologists, Psychiatrists and General Practitioners

Authors: T. Marinaci, C. Venuleo

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Different conceptualizations of disease affect patient care. This study aims to address this gap. It explores how health professionals conceptualize gambling problem, addiction and the goals of recovery process. In-depth, semi-structured, open-ended interviews were conducted with Italian psychologists, psychiatrists, general practitioners, and support staff (N= 114), working within health centres for the treatment of addiction (public health services or therapeutic communities) or medical offices. A Lexical Correspondence Analysis (LCA) was applied to the verbatim transcripts. LCA allowed to identify two main factorial dimensions, which organize similarity and dissimilarity in the discourses of the interviewed. The first dimension labelled 'Models of relationship with the problem', concerns two different models of relationship with the health problem: one related to the request for help and the process of taking charge and the other related to the identification of the psychopathology underlying the disorder. The second dimension, labelled 'Organisers of the intervention' reflects the dialectic between two ways to address the problem. On the one hand, they are the gambling dynamics and its immediate life-consequences to organize the intervention (whatever the request of the user is); on the other hand, they are the procedures and the tools which characterize the health service to organize the way the professionals deal with the user’ s problem (whatever it is and despite the specify of the user’s request). The results highlight how, despite the differences, the respondents share a central assumption: understanding gambling problem implies the reference to the gambler’s identity, more than, for instance, to the relational, social, cultural or political context where the gambler lives. A passive stance is attributed to the user, who does not play any role in the definition of the goal of the intervention. The results will be discussed to highlight the relationship between professional models and users’ ways to understand and deal with the problems related to gambling.

Keywords: cultural models, health professionals, intervention models, problem gambling

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453 The Competitive Power of Supply Chain Quality Management in Manufacturing Companies in Cameroon

Authors: Nicodemus Tiendem, Arrey Mbayong Napoleon

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The heightening of competition and the quest for market share has left business persons and research communities re-examining and reinventing their competitive practices. A case in point is Porter’s generic strategy which has received a lot of criticism lately regarding its inability to maintain a company’s competitive power. This is because it focuses more on the organisation and ignores her external partners, who have a strong bearing on the company’s performance. This paper, therefore, sought to examine Porter’s generic strategies alongside supply chain quality management practices in terms of their effectiveness in building the competitive power of manufacturing companies in Cameroon. This was done with the use of primary data captured from a survey study across the supply chains of 20 manufacturing companies in Cameroon using a five-point Likert scale questionnaire. For each company, four 1st tier suppliers and four 1st tier distributors were carefully chosen to participate in the study alongside the companies themselves. In each case, attention was directed to persons involved in the supply chains of the companies. This gave a total of 180 entities comprising the supply chains of the 20 manufacturing companies involved in the study, making a total of 900 participants. The data was analysed using three multiple regression models to assess the effect of Porter’s generic strategy and supply chain quality management on the marketing performance of the companies. The findings proved that in such a competitive atmosphere, supply chain quality management is a better tool for marketing performance over Porter’s generic strategies and hence building the competitive power of the companies at all levels of the study. Although the study made use of convenience sampling, where sample selectivity biases the results, the findings aligned with many other recent developments in line with building the competitive power of manufacturing companies and thereby made the findings suitable for generalisation.

Keywords: supply chain quality management, Porter’s generic strategies, competitive power, marketing performance, manufacturing companies, Cameroon

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452 Creating Complementary Bi-Modal Learning Environments: An Exploratory Study Combining Online and Classroom Techniques

Authors: Justin P. Pool, Haruyo Yoshida

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This research focuses on the effects of creating an English as a foreign language curriculum that combines online learning and classroom teaching in a complementary manner. Through pre- and post-test results, teacher observation, and learner reflection, it will be shown that learners can benefit from online programs focusing on receptive skills if combined with a communicative classroom environment that encourages learners to develop their productive skills. Much research has lamented the fact that many modern mobile assisted language learning apps do not take advantage of the affordances of modern technology by focusing only on receptive skills rather than inviting learners to interact with one another and develop communities of practice. This research takes into account the realities of the state of such apps and focuses on how to best create a curriculum that complements apps which focus on receptive skills. The research involved 15 adult learners working for a business in Japan simultaneously engaging in 1) a commercial online English language learning application that focused on reading, listening, grammar, and vocabulary and 2) a 15-week class focused on communicative language teaching, presentation skills, and mitigation of error aversion tendencies. Participants of the study experienced large gains on a standardized test, increased motivation and willingness to communicate, and asserted that they felt more confident regarding English communication. Moreover, learners continued to study independently at higher rates after the study than they had before the onset of the program. This paper will include the details of the program, reveal the improvement in test scores, share learner reflections, and critically view current evaluation models for mobile assisted language learning applications.

Keywords: adult learners, communicative language teaching, mobile assisted language learning, motivation

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451 On-Farm Research on Organic Fruits Production in the Eastern Thailand

Authors: Sali Chinsathit, Haruthai Kaenla

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Organic agriculture has become a major policy theme for agricultural development in Thailand since October 2005. Organic farming is enlisted as an important national agenda, to promote safe food and national export, and many government authorities have initiated projects and activities centered on organic farming promotion. Currently, Thailand has the market share of about 32 million US$ a year by exporting organic products of rice, vegetables, tea, fruits and a few medicinal herbs. There is high potential in organic crop production as there is the tropical environment promoting crop growth and leader farmer in organic farming. However, organic sector is relatively small (0.2%) comparing with conventional agricultural area, since there are many factors affecting farmers’ adoption and success in organic farming. The objective of this project was to get the organic production technology for at least 3 organic crops. The treatment and method were complied with Thai Organic Standard, and were mainly concerned on increase plant biodiversity and soil improvement by using organic fertilizer and bio-extract from fish, egg, plant and fruits. The bio-logical control, plant-extracts, and cultural practices were used to control insect pests and diseases of 3 crops including mangosteen (Garcinia mangostana L.), longkong (Aglaia dookoo Griff.) and banana (Musa (AA group)). The experiments were carried out at research centers of Department of Agriculture and farmers’ farms in Rayong and Chanthaburi provinces from 2009 to 2013. We found that both locations, plant biodiversity by intercropping mangosteen or longkong with banana and soil improvement with composts and bio-extract from fish could increased yield and farmers’ income by 6,835 US$/ha/year. Farmers got knowledge from these technologies to produce organic crops. The organic products were sold both in domestic and international countries. The organic production technologies were also environmental friendly and could be used as an alternative way for farmers in Thailand.

Keywords: banana, longkong, mangosteen, organic farming

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450 The Use of Additives to Prevent Fouling in Polyethylene and Polypropylene Gas and Slurry Phase Processes

Authors: L. Shafiq, A. Rigby

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All polyethylene processes are highly exothermic, and the safe removal of the heat of reaction is a fundamental issue in the process design. In slurry and gas processes, the velocity of the polymer particles in the reactor and external coolers can be very high, and under certain conditions, this can lead to static charging of these particles. Such static charged polymer particles may start building up on the reactor wall, limiting heat transfer, and ultimately leading to severe reactor fouling and forced reactor shut down. Statsafe™ is an FDA approved anti-fouling additive currently used around the world for polyolefin production as an anti-fouling additive. The unique polymer chemistry aids static discharge, which prevents the build-up of charged polyolefin particles, which could lead to fouling. Statsafe™ is being used and trailed in gas, slurry, and a combination of these technologies around the world. We will share data to demonstrate how the use of Statsafe™ allows more stable operation at higher solids level by eliminating static, which would otherwise prevent closer packing of particles in the hydrocarbon slurry. Because static charge generation depends also on the concentration of polymer particles in the slurry, the maximum slurry concentration can be higher when using Statsafe™, leading to higher production rates. The elimination of fouling also leads to less downtime. Special focus will be made on the impact anti-static additives have on catalyst performance within the polymerization process and how this has been measured. Lab-scale studies have investigated the effect on the activity of Ziegler Natta catalysts when anti-static additives are used at various concentrations in gas and slurry, polyethylene and polypropylene processes. An in-depth gas phase study investigated the effect of additives on the final polyethylene properties such as particle size, morphology, fines, bulk density, melt flow index, gradient density, and melting point.

Keywords: anti-static additives, catalyst performance, FDA approved anti-fouling additive, polymerisation

Procedia PDF Downloads 174
449 Lies and Pretended Fairness of Police Officers in Sharing

Authors: Eitan Elaad

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The current study aimed to examine lying and pretended fairness by police personnel in sharing situations. Forty Israeli police officers and 40 laypeople from the community, all males, self-assessed their lie-telling ability, rated the frequency of their lies, evaluated the acceptability of lying, and indicated using rational and intuitive thinking while lying. Next, according to the ultimatum game procedure, participants were asked to share 100 points with an imagined target, either a male policeman or a male non-policeman. Participants allocated points to the target person bearing in mind that the other person must accept or reject their offer. Participants' goal was to retain as many points as possible, and to this end, they could tell the target person that fewer than 100 points were available for distribution. We defined concealment or lying as the difference between the available 100 points and the sum of points designated for sharing. Results indicated that police officers lied less to their fellow police targets than non-police targets, whereas laypeople lied less to non-police targets than imagined police targets. The ratio between the points offered to the imagined target person and the points endowed by the participant as available for sharing defined pretended fairness.Enhanced pretended fairness indicates higher motivation to display fair sharing even if the fair sharing is fictitious. Police officers presented higher pretended fairness to police targets than laypeople, whereas laypeople set off more fairness to non-police targets than police officers. We discussed the results concerning occupation solidarity and loyalty among police personnel. Specifically, police work involves uncertainty, danger and risk, coercive authority, and the use of force, which isolates the police from the community and dictates strong bonds of solidarity between police personnel. No wonder police officers shared more points (lied less) to fellow police targets than non-police targets. On the other hand, police legitimacy or the belief that the police are acting honestly in the best interest of the citizens constitutes citizens' attitudes toward the police. The relatively low number of points shared for distribution by laypeople to police targets indicates difficulties with the legitimacy of the Israeli police.

Keywords: lying, fairness, police solidarity, police legitimacy, sharing, ultimatum game

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448 Low Pricing Strategy of Forest Products in Community Forestry Program: Subsidy to the Forest Users or Loss of Economy?

Authors: Laxuman Thakuri

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Community-based forest management is often glorified as one of the best forest management alternatives in the developing countries like Nepal. It is also believed that the transfer of forest management authorities to local communities is decisive to take efficient decisions, maximize the forest benefits and improve the people’s livelihood. The community forestry of Nepal also aims to maximize the forest benefits; share them among the user households and improve their livelihood. However, how the local communities fix the price of forest products and local pricing made by the forest user groups affects to equitable forest benefits-sharing among the user households and their livelihood improvement objectives, the answer is largely silent among the researchers and policy-makers alike. This study examines local pricing system of forest products in the lowland community forestry and its effects on equitable benefit-sharing and livelihood improvement objectives. The study discovered that forest user groups fixed the price of forest products based on three criteria: i) costs incur in harvesting, ii) office operation costs, and iii) livelihood improvement costs through community development and income generating activities. Since user households have heterogeneous socio-economic conditions, the forest user groups have been applied low pricing strategy even for high-value forest products that the access of socio-economically worse-off households can be increased. However, the results of forest products distribution showed that as a result of low pricing strategy the access of socio-economically better-off households has been increasing at higher rate than worse-off and an inequality situation has been created. Similarly, the low pricing strategy is also found defective to livelihood improvement objectives. The study suggests for revising the forest products pricing system in community forest management and reforming the community forestry policy as well.

Keywords: community forestry, forest products pricing, equitable benefit-sharing, livelihood improvement, Nepal

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447 Preventing Factors for Innovation: The Case of Swedish Construction Small and Medium-Sized Local Companies towards a One-Stop-Shop Business Concept

Authors: Georgios Pardalis, Krushna Mahapatra, Brijesh Mainali

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Compared to other sectors, the residential and service sector in Sweden is responsible for almost 40% of the national final energy use and faces great challenges towards achieving reduction of energy intensity. The one- and two-family (henceforth 'detached') houses, constituting 60% of the residential floor area and using 32 TWh for space heating and hot water purposes, offers significant opportunities for improved energy efficiency. More than 80% of those houses are more than 35 years of old and a large share of them need major renovations. However, the rate of energy renovations for such houses is significantly low. The renovation market is dominated by small and medium-sized local companies (SMEs), who mostly offer individual solutions. A one-stop-shop business framework, where a single actor collaborates with other actors and coordinates them to offer a full package for holistic renovations, may speed up the rate of renovation. Such models are emerging in some European countries. This paper aims to understand the willingness of the SMEs to adopt a one-stop-shop business framework. Interviews were conducted with 13 SMEs in Kronoberg county in Sweden, a geographic region known for its initiatives towards sustainability and energy efficiency. The examined firms seem reluctant to adopt one-stop-shop for nonce due to the perceived risks they see in such a business move and due to their characteristics, although they agree that such a move will advance their position in the market and their business volume. By using threat-rigidity and prospect theory, we illustrate how this type of companies can move from being reluctant to adopt one-stop-shop framework to its adoption. Additionally, with the use of behavioral theory, we gain deeper knowledge on those exact reasons preventing those firms from adopting the one-stop-shop framework.

Keywords: construction SMEs, innovation adoption, one-stop-shop, perceived risks

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446 Defining Heritage Language Learners of Arabic: Linguistic and Cultural Factors

Authors: Rasha Elhawari

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Heritage language learners (HLL) are part of the linguistic reality in Foreign Language Learning (FLL). These learners present several characteristics that are different from non-heritage language learners. They have a personal connection with the language and their motivation to learn the language is partly because of this personal connection. In Canada there is a large diversity in the foreign language learning classroom; the Arabic language classroom is no exception. The Arabic HLL is unique for more than one reason. First, is the fact that the Arabic language is spoken across twenty-two Arab countries across the Arab World. Across the Arab World there is a standard variation and a local dialect that co-exist side by side, i.e. diaglossia exists in a strong and unique way as a feature of Arabic. Second, Arabic is the language that all Muslims across the Muslim World use for their prayers. This raises a number of points when we consider Arabic as a Heritage Language; namely the role of diaglossia, culture and religion. The fact that there is a group of leaners that can be regarded as HLL who are not of Arabic speaking background but are Muslims and use the language for religious purposes is unique, thus course developers and language instructors need take this into consideration. The paper takes a closer look at this distinction and establishes sub-groups the Arabic HLLs in a language and/or culture specific way related mainly to the Arabic HLL. It looks at the learners at the beginners’ Arabic class at the undergraduate university level over a period of three years in order to define this learner. Learners belong to different groups and backgrounds but they all share common characteristics. The paper presents a detailed look at the learner types present at this class in order to help prepare and develop material for this specific learner group. The paper shows that separate HLL and non-HLL courses, especially at the introductory and intermediate level, is successful in resolving some of the pedagogical problems that occur in the Arabic as a Foreign Language classroom. In conclusion, the paper recommends the development of HLL courses at the early levels of language learning. It calls for a change in the pedagogical practices to overcome some of the challenges learner in the introductory Arabic class can face.

Keywords: Arabic, Heritage Language, langauge learner, teaching

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445 Self-Reported Health Status and Its Consistency: Evidence from India

Authors: Dona Ghosh, Zakir Husain

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In India, the increase in share of aged has generated many social and economic issues, of which health concerns is a major challenge that society must confront in coming years. Self-reported health (SRH) is a popular health measure in this regard but has been questioned in recent years due to its heavy dependence on the socioeconomic status. So, the validity of SRH, as a measure of health status during old age, is needed to be verified. This paper emphasizes on the self-reported health and related inconsistent responses among elderly in India. The objective of the study is bifurcated into two parts: firstly, to identify the socioeconomic determinants of subjective health status and its change over time; and secondly, to analyse the role of the socioeconomic components in providing inconsistent responses regarding the health status of elderly. Inconsistency in response can rise in two ways: positive response bias (if an individual has a health problem but reports his/her health as good) and negative response bias (if bad health is reported even if there is no health problem). However, in the present study, we focus only on the negative response bias of elderly individuals. To measure the inconsistencies in responses, self-reported health is compared with two types of physical health conditions – existence of chronicle ailment and physical immobility. Using NSS dataset of 60th and 71st rounds, the study found that subjective health has worsened over time in both rural and urban areas. Findings suggest that inconsistency in responses, related to chronic ailment, vary across social classes, living environments, geographical regions, age groups and education levels. On the contrary, variation in inconsistent responses regarding physical mobility is quite rare and difficult to explain by socioeconomic characteristics because most of the indicators are found to be insignificant in this regard. The findings indicate that in case of chronicle ailment, inconsistency between objective and subjective health status largely depends on socioeconomic conditions but the importance of such factors disappears for physical immobility.

Keywords: India, aging, self-reported health, inconsistent responses

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444 Examining the Missing Feedback Link in Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis

Authors: Apra Sinha

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The inverted U-shaped Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) demonstrates(pollution-income relationship)that initially the pollution and environmental degradation surpass the level of income per capita; however this trend reverses since at the higher income levels, economic growth initiates environmental upgrading. However, what effect does increased environmental degradation has on growth is the missing feedback link which has not been addressed in the EKC hypothesis. This paper examines the missing feedback link in EKC hypothesis in Indian context by examining the casual association between fossil fuel consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth for India. Fossil fuel consumption here has been taken as a proxy of driver of economic growth. The casual association between the aforementioned variables has been analyzed using five interventions namely 1) urban development for which urbanization has been taken proxy 2) industrial development for which industrial value added has been taken proxy 3) trade liberalization for which sum of exports and imports as a share of GDP has been taken as proxy 4)financial development for which a)domestic credit to private sector and b)net foreign assets has been taken as proxies. The choice of interventions for this study has been done keeping in view the economic liberalization perspective of India. The main aim of the paper is to investigate the missing feedback link for Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis before and after incorporating the intervening variables. The period of study is from 1971 to 2011 as it covers pre and post liberalization era in India. All the data has been taken from World Bank country level indicators. The Johansen and Juselius cointegration testing methodology and Error Correction based Granger causality have been applied on all the variables. The results clearly show that out of five interventions, only in two interventions the missing feedback link is being addressed. This paper can put forward significant policy implications for environment protection and sustainable development.

Keywords: environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, fossil fuel consumption, industrialization, trade liberalization, urbanization

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443 The Effect of Technology on International Marketing Trading Researches and Analysis

Authors: Karim Monir Halim Salib

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The article discusses the use of modern technology to achieve environmental marketing goals in business and customer relations. The purpose of this article is to show the possibilities of the application of modern technology. In B2C relationships, marketing departments face challenges arising from the need to quickly segment customers and share information across multiple systems, which seriously hinders the achievement of marketing objectives. Therefore, the Article states that modern IT solutions are used in the marketing of business activities, taking into account environmental objectives. For this reason, its importance in the economic and social development of developing countries has increased. While traditional companies emphasize profit as the most important business principle, social enterprises have to address social issues at the expense of profit. This mindset gives social enterprises more than traditional businesses to meet the needs of those at the bottom of the pyramid. This also poses a great challenge for social business, as social business works for the public good on the one hand and financial stability on the other. Otherwise, the company cannot be evacuated. Cultures are involved in business communication and research. Using the example of language in international relations, the article poses the problem of cultural discourse in management and linguistic and cultural studies. After reviewing current research on language in international relations, this article presents communication methods in the international economy from a linguistic perspective and attempts to explain communication problems in business from the perspective of linguistic research. A step towards multidisciplinary research combining research in management and linguistics.

Keywords: international marketing, marketing mix, marketing research, small and medium-sized enterprises, strategic marketing, B2B digital marketing strategy, digital marketing, digital marketing maturity model, SWOT analysis consumer behavior, experience, experience marketing, marketing employee organizational performance, internal marketing, internal customer, direct marketing, mobile phones mobile marketing, Sms advertising.

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442 The Core Obstacles of Continuous Improvement Implementation: Some Key Findings from Health and Education Sectors

Authors: Abdullah Alhaqbani

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Purpose: Implementing continuous improvement is a challenge that public sector organisations face in becoming successful. Many obstacles hinder public organisations from successfully implementing continuous improvement. This paper aims to highlight the key core obstacles that face public organisations to implement continuous improvement programmes. Approach: Based on the literature, this paper reviews 66 papers that were published between 2000 and 2013 and that focused on the concept of continuous improvement and improvement methodologies in the context of public sector organisations. The methodologies for continuous improvement covered in these papers include Total Quality Management, Six Sigma, process re-engineering, lean thinking and Kaizen. Findings: Of the 24 obstacles found in the literature, 11 barriers were seen as core barriers that frequently occurred in public sector organisations. The findings indicate that lack of top management commitment; organisational culture and political issues and resistance to change are significant obstacles for improvement programmes. Moreover, this review found that improvement methodologies share some core barriers to successful implementation within public organisations. These barriers as well are common in the different geographic area. For instance lack of top management commitment and training that found in the education sector in Albanian are common barriers of improvement studies in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Spain, UK and US. Practical implications: Understanding these core issues and barriers will help managers of public organisations to improve their strategies with respect to continuous improvement. Thus, this review highlights the core issues that prevent a successful continuous improvement journey within the public sector. Value: Identifying and understanding the common obstacles to successfully implementing continuous improvement in the public sector will help public organisations to learn how to improve in launching and successfully sustaining such programmes. However, this is not the end; rather, it is just the beginning of a longer improvement journey. Thus, it is intended that this review will identify key learning opportunities for public sector organisations in developing nations which will then be tested via further research.

Keywords: continuous improvement, total quality management, obstacles, public sector

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441 Performing Marginality and Contestation of Ethnic Identity: Dynamics of Identity Politics in Assam, India

Authors: Hare Krishna Doley

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Drawing upon empirical data, this paper tries to examine how ethnic groups like Ahom, Moran, Motok, and Chutia creates and recreates ethnic boundaries while making claims for recognition as Scheduled Tribes (STs) under the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution of India, in the state of Assam. Underlying such claim is the distinct identity consciousness amongst these groups as they assert themselves originally as tribe drawing upon primordial elements. For them, tribal identity promises social justice and give credence to their claims of indigeneity while preserving their exclusivity within the multifarious society of Assam. Having complex inter-group relationships, these groups under study displays distinct as well as overlapping identities, which demonstrate fluidity of identities across groups while making claims for recognition. In this process, the binary of ‘us’ and ‘them’ are often constructed amongst these groups, which are in turn difficult to grasp as they share common historical linkages. This paper attempts to grapple with such complex relationships the studied groups and their assertion as distinct cultural entities while making ethnic boundaries on the basis of socio-cultural identities. Such claims also involve frequent negotiation with the Sate as well as with other ethnic groups, which further creates strife among indigenous groups for tribal identity. The paper argues that identity consciousnesses amongst groups have persisted since the introduction of resource distribution on ethnic lines; therefore, issues of exclusive ethnic identity in the state of Assam can be contextualised within the colonial and post-colonial politics of redrawing ethnic and spatial boundaries. Narrative of the ethnic leaders who are in the forefront of struggle for ST status revealed that it is not merely to secure preferential treatment, but it also encompasses entitlement to land and their socio-cultural identity as aboriginal. While noting the genesis of struggle by the ethnic associations for ST status, this paper will also delineate the interactions among ethnic groups and how the identity of tribe is being performed by them to be included in the official categories of ST.

Keywords: ethnic, identity, sixth schedule, tribe

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440 Structural Vulnerability of Banking Network – Systemic Risk Approach

Authors: Farhad Reyazat, Richard Werner

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This paper contributes to the existent literature by developing a framework that explains how to monitor potential threats to banking sector stability. The study explores structural vulnerabilities at the country level, but also look at bilateral exposures within a network context. The study contributes in analysing of the European banking systemic risk at aggregated level, which integrates the characteristics of bank size, and interconnectedness relative to the size of the economy which ultimate risk belong to, taking to account the concentration ratio of the banking industry within the whole economy. The nature of the systemic risk depends on the interplay of the network topology with the nature of financial transactions over the network, assets and buffer stemming from bank size, correlations, and the nature of the shocks to the financial system. The study’s results illustrate the contribution of banks’ size, size of economy and concentration of counterparty exposures to a given country’s banks in explaining its systemic importance, how much the banking network depends on a few traditional hubs activities and the changes of this dependencies over the last 9 years. The role of few of traditional hubs such as Swiss banks and British Banks and also Irish banks- where the financial sector is fairly new and grew strongly between 1990s till 2008- take the fourth position on 2014 reducing the relative size since 2006 where they had the first position. In-degree concentration index analysis in the study shows concentration index of banking network was not changed since financial crisis 2007-8. In-degree concentration index on first quarter of 2014 indicates that US, UK and Germany together, getting over 70% of the network exposures. The result of comparing the in-degree concentration index with 2007-4Q, shows the same group having over 70% of the network exposure, however the UK getting more important role in the hub and the market share of US and Germany are slightly diminished.

Keywords: systemic risk, counterparty risk, financial stability, interconnectedness, banking concentration, european banks risk, network effect on systemic risk, concentration risk

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439 Makerspaces as Centers of Innovation: An Assessment of the Impact of Technology Incubation Centers in Nigeria

Authors: Bisi Olawoyin

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The idea of knowledge sharing facilitated by the internet and complemented by a collaborative offline process in form of shared workshops called Makerspaces has become an attractive economic development agenda worldwide. Towards this end, Nigeria has established a number of Technology Incubation Centers (TICs) across the country with a view to using them as institutional mechanisms for commercializing Research and Development results; thus helping to promote venture creation and economic development. This study thus examines the impact of the nurturing by the TICs, on the performance of selected incubated enterprises that have grown into medium scale businesses in different sectors of the economy. The objective is to determine the extent to which the process of incubation has contributed to their growth in relation to similar businesses that developed outside the TICs. Six enterprises nurtured by TICs and six others outside, these were selected for the study. Data were collected in respect of the twelve enterprises covering their first five years of operation. Performances in terms of annual turnover, market share, and product range were analysed by scatter diagram plotted to show these variables against time and on comparative basis between TIC and non-TIC enterprises. Results showed an initial decline in performance for most of the incubatees in the first two years due to sluggish adjustment to withdrawal of subsidies enjoyed at the TICs. However, four of them were able to catch up with improved performance and surpass their non–TIC counterparts consistently from the third year. Analysis of year on year performance also showed average growth rate of 7% and 5 % respectively for TIC and non–TIC enterprises. The study, therefore, concludes that TICs have great role to play in nurturing new, innovative businesses but sees the need for government to address the provision of critical facilities especially electricity and utilities that constitute critical cost components for businesses. It must also address the issue of investment grants, loans including the development of technology/industrial parks that will serve to boost business survival.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, incubation, innovation, makerspaces

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438 The Role of Religion in the Foundation of State [Pakistan]

Authors: Hafiz Atif Iqbal

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It is a confirmed historical fact that Pakistan is an ideological state, and religion has played a very important and vital role in the establishment of Pakistan. This is the reason why the slogan "What does Pakistan mean is "la ilaha illa Allah" is embedded in the heart of every Muslim. This slogan became so popular in the dimensions of India that Movement of Pakistan and this slogan became inseparable, and that is why Quaid-e-Azam said: "Twenty-five percent share in Movement of Pakistan belongs to the creator of this slogan, Asghar Soudai Sialkoti." This slogan later formed the basis of the two-nation theory, whereby the Hindus and Muslims of the sub-continent were declared to be two separate and complete nations, completely different from each other in terms of their religion, affairs, dress, lifestyle, and values. In this regard, on March 23, 1940, at the historic meeting of the Muslim League in Lahore, in which the Lahore Resolution was passed, Quaid-e-Azam said: Islam and Hinduism are not just religions, but actually two different social systems. Therefore, this desire should be called a dream and a dream that Hindus and Muslims will be able to create a common nationality together. These people do not marry each other, nor do they eat at the same table. I say in a nutshell that they belong to two different civilizations, and these civilizations are based on concepts and facts that contradict each other and are against each other. Quaid-e-Azam, while addressing Peshawar in January 1948, said: "We did not demand Pakistan just to get a separate piece of land, but we wanted to get a laboratory where we can test the principles of Islam. The distinction of the concept of Islamic government should be kept in mind that the authority of obedience and loyalty in it is God Almighty, whose practical means of compliance are the rules and principles of the Holy Quran. Only the rules of the Holy Quran can determine the limits of our freedom and restrictions in the state and society. In other words, the Islamic government is the government of Quranic principles and rules. All these facts make it clear that religion has played a fundamental and important role in the establishment of Pakistan.

Keywords: la ilaha illa allah, asghar soudai sialkoti, lahore resolution, quaid-e-azam

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437 The Cost of Non-Communicable Diseases in the European Union: A Projection towards the Future

Authors: Desiree Vandenberghe, Johan Albrecht

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Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are responsible for the vast majority of deaths in the European Union (EU) and represent a large share of total health care spending. A future increase in this health and financial burden is likely to be driven by population ageing, lifestyle changes and technological advances in medicine. Without adequate prevention measures, this burden can severely threaten population health and economic development. To tackle this challenge, a correct assessment of the current burden of NCDs is required, as well as a projection of potential increases of this burden. The contribution of this paper is to offer perspective on the evolution of the NCD burden towards the future and to give an indication of the potential of prevention policy. A Non-Homogenous, Semi-Markov model for the EU was constructed, which allowed for a projection of the cost burden for the four main NCDs (cancer, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes mellitus) towards 2030 and 2050. This simulation is done based on multiple baseline scenarios that vary in demand and supply factors such as health status, population structure, and technological advances. Finally, in order to assess the potential of preventive measures to curb the cost explosion of NCDs, a simulation is executed which includes increased efforts for preventive health care measures. According to the Markov model, by 2030 and 2050, total costs (direct and indirect costs) in the EU could increase by 30.1% and 44.1% respectively, compared to 2015 levels. An ambitious prevention policy framework for NCDs will be required if the EU wants to meet this challenge of rising costs. To conclude, significant cost increases due to Non-Communicable Diseases are likely to occur due to demographic and lifestyle changes. Nevertheless, an ambitious prevention program throughout the EU can aid in making this cost burden manageable for future generations.

Keywords: non-communicable diseases, preventive health care, health policy, Markov model, scenario analysis

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