Search results for: social connectedness
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 9530

Search results for: social connectedness

170 Philippine Site Suitability Analysis for Biomass, Hydro, Solar, and Wind Renewable Energy Development Using Geographic Information System Tools

Authors: Jara Kaye S. Villanueva, M. Rosario Concepcion O. Ang

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For the past few years, Philippines has depended most of its energy source on oil, coal, and fossil fuel. According to the Department of Energy (DOE), the dominance of coal in the energy mix will continue until the year 2020. The expanding energy needs in the country have led to increasing efforts to promote and develop renewable energy. This research is a part of the government initiative in preparation for renewable energy development and expansion in the country. The Philippine Renewable Energy Resource Mapping from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) Surveys is a three-year government project which aims to assess and quantify the renewable energy potential of the country and to put them into usable maps. This study focuses on the site suitability analysis of the four renewable energy sources – biomass (coconut, corn, rice, and sugarcane), hydro, solar, and wind energy. The site assessment is a key component in determining and assessing the most suitable locations for the construction of renewable energy power plants. This method maximizes the use of both the technical methods in resource assessment, as well as taking into account the environmental, social, and accessibility aspect in identifying potential sites by utilizing and integrating two different methods: the Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. For the MCDA, Analytical Hierarchy Processing (AHP) is employed to determine the parameters needed for the suitability analysis. To structure these site suitability parameters, various experts from different fields were consulted – scientists, policy makers, environmentalists, and industrialists. The need to have a well-represented group of people to consult with is relevant to avoid bias in the output parameter of hierarchy levels and weight matrices. AHP pairwise matrix computation is utilized to derive weights per level out of the expert’s gathered feedback. Whereas from the threshold values derived from related literature, international studies, and government laws, the output values were then consulted with energy specialists from the DOE. Geospatial analysis using GIS tools translate this decision support outputs into visual maps. Particularly, this study uses Euclidean distance to compute for the distance values of each parameter, Fuzzy Membership algorithm which normalizes the output from the Euclidean Distance, and the Weighted Overlay tool for the aggregation of the layers. Using the Natural Breaks algorithm, the suitability ratings of each of the map are classified into 5 discrete categories of suitability index: (1) not suitable (2) least suitable, (3) suitable, (4) moderately suitable, and (5) highly suitable. In this method, the classes are grouped based on the best groups similar values wherein each subdivision are set from the rest based on the big difference in boundary values. Results show that in the entire Philippine area of responsibility, biomass has the highest suitability rating with rice as the most suitable at 75.76% suitability percentage, whereas wind has the least suitability percentage with score 10.28%. Solar and Hydro fall in the middle of the two, with suitability values 28.77% and 21.27%.

Keywords: site suitability, biomass energy, hydro energy, solar energy, wind energy, GIS

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169 Varieties of Capitalism and Small Business CSR: A Comparative Overview

Authors: Stéphanie Looser, Walter Wehrmeyer

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Given the limited research on Small and Mediumsized Enterprises’ (SMEs) contribution to Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and even scarcer research on Swiss SMEs, this paper helps to fill these gaps by enabling the identification of supranational SME parameters and to make a contribution to the evolving field of these topics. Thus, the paper investigates the current state of SME practices in Switzerland and across 15 other countries. Combining the degree to which SMEs demonstrate an explicit (or business case) approach or see CSR as an implicit moral activity with the assessment of their attributes for “variety of capitalism” defines the framework of this comparative analysis. According to previous studies, liberal market economies, e.g. in the United States (US) or United Kingdom (UK), are aligned with extrinsic CSR, while coordinated market systems (in Central European or Asian countries) evolve implicit CSR agendas. To outline Swiss small business CSR patterns in particular, 40 SME owner-managers were interviewed. The transcribed interviews were coded utilising MAXQDA for qualitative content analysis. A secondary data analysis of results from different countries (i.e., Australia, Austria, Chile, Cameroon, Catalonia (notably a part of Spain that seeks autonomy), China, Finland, Germany, Hong Kong (a special administrative region of China), Italy, Netherlands, Singapore, Spain, Taiwan, UK, US) lays groundwork for this comparative study on small business CSR. Applying the same coding categories (in MAXQDA) for the interview analysis as well as for the secondary data research while following grounded theory rules to refine and keep track of ideas generated testable hypotheses and comparative power on implicit (and the lower likelihood of explicit) CSR in SMEs retrospectively. The paper identifies Swiss small business CSR as deep, profound, “soul”, and an implicit part of the day-to-day business. Similar to most Central European, Mediterranean, Nordic, and Asian countries, explicit CSR is still very rare in Swiss SMEs. Astonishingly, also UK and US SMEs follow this pattern in spite of their strong and distinct liberal market economies. Though other findings show that nationality matters this research concludes that SME culture and its informal CSR agenda are strongly formative and superseding even forces of market economies, nationally cultural patterns, and language. In a world of “big business”, explicit “business case” CSR, and the mantra that “CSR must pay”, this study points to a distinctly implicit small business CSR model built on trust, physical closeness, and virtues that is largely detached from the bottom line. This pattern holds for different cultural contexts and it is concluded that SME culture is stronger than nationality leading to a supra-national, monolithic SME CSR approach. Hence, classifications of countries by their market system or capitalism, as found in the comparative capitalism literature, do not match the CSR practices in SMEs as they do not mirror the peculiarities of their business. This raises questions on the universality and generalisability of management concepts.

Keywords: CSR, comparative study, cultures of capitalism, small, medium-sized enterprises

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168 Study of the Association between Salivary Microbiological Data, Oral Health Indicators, Behavioral Factors, and Social Determinants among Post-COVID Patients Aged 7 to 12 Years in Tbilisi City

Authors: Lia Mania, Ketevan Nanobashvili

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Background: The coronavirus disease COVID-19 has become the cause of a global health crisis during the current pandemic. This study aims to fill the paucity of epidemiological studies on the impact of COVID-19 on the oral health of pediatric populations. Methods: It was conducted an observational, cross-sectional study in Georgia, in Tbilisi (capital of Georgia), among 7 to 12-year-old PCR or rapid test-confirmed post-Covid populations in all districts of Tbilisi (10 districts in total). 332 beneficiaries who were infected with Covid within one year were included in the study. The population was selected in schools of Tbilisi according to the principle of cluster selection. A simple random selection took place in the selected clusters. According to this principle, an equal number of beneficiaries were selected in all districts of Tbilisi. By July 1, 2022, according to National Center for Disease Control and Public Health data (NCDC.Ge), the number of test-confirmed cases in the population aged 0-18 in Tbilisi was 115137 children (17.7% of all confirmed cases). The number of patients to be examined was determined by the sample size. Oral screening, microbiological examination of saliva, and administration of oral health questionnaires to guardians were performed. Statistical processing of data was done with SPSS-23. Risk factors were estimated by odds ratio and logistic regression with 95% confidence interval. Results: Statistically reliable differences between the averages of oral health indicators in asymptomatic and symptomatic covid-infected groups are: for caries intensity (DMF+def) t=4.468 and p=0.000, for modified gingival index (MGI) t=3.048, p=0.002, for simplified oral hygiene index (S-OHI) t=4.853; p=0.000. Symptomatic covid-infection has a reliable effect on the oral microbiome (Staphylococcus aureus, Candida albicans, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus epidermalis); (n=332; 77.3% vs n=332; 58.0%; OR=2.46, 95%CI: 1.318-4.617). According to the logistic regression, it was found that the severity of the covid infection has a significant effect on the frequency of pathogenic and conditionally pathogenic bacteria in the oral cavity B=0.903 AOR=2.467 (CL 1.318-4.617). Symptomatic covid-infection affects oral health indicators, regardless of the presence of other risk factors, such as parental employment status, tooth brushing behaviors, carbohydrate meal, fruit consumption. (p<0.05). Conclusion: Risk factors (parental employment status, tooth brushing behaviors, carbohydrate consumption) were associated with poorer oral health status in a post-Covid population of 7- to 12-year-old children. However, such a risk factor as symptomatic ongoing covid-infection affected the oral microbiome in terms of the abundant growth of pathogenic and conditionally pathogenic bacteria (Staphylococcus aureus, Candida albicans, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus epidermalis) and further worsened oral health indicators. Thus, a close association was established between symptomatic covid-infection and microbiome changes in the post-covid period; also - between the variables of oral health indicators and the symptomatic course of covid-infection.

Keywords: oral microbiome, COVID-19, population based research, oral health indicators

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167 A Clinico-Bacteriological Study and Their Risk Factors for Diabetic Foot Ulcer with Multidrug-Resistant Microorganisms in Eastern India

Authors: Pampita Chakraborty, Sukumar Mukherjee

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This study was done to determine the bacteriological profile and antibiotic resistance of the isolates and to find out the potential risk factors for infection with multidrug-resistant organisms. Diabetic foot ulcer is a major medical, social, economic problem and a leading cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in the developing countries like India. 25 percent of all diabetic patients develop a foot ulcer at some point in their lives which is highly susceptible to infections and that spreads rapidly, leading to overwhelming tissue destruction and subsequent amputation. Infection with multidrug resistant organisms (MDRO) may increase the cost of management and may cause additional morbidity and mortality. Proper management of these infections requires appropriate antibiotic selection based on culture and antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Early diagnosis of microbial infections is aimed to institute the appropriate antibacterial therapy initiative to avoid further complications. A total of 200 Type 2 Diabetic Mellitus patients with infection were admitted at GD Hospital and Diabetes Institute, Kolkata. 60 of them who developed ulcer during the year 2013 were included in this study. A detailed clinical history and physical examination were carried out for every subject. Specimens for microbiological studies were obtained from ulcer region. Gram-negative bacilli were tested for extended spectrum Beta-lactamase (ESBL) production by double disc diffusion method. Staphylococcal isolates were tested for susceptibility to oxacillin by screen agar method and disc diffusion. Potential risk factors for MDRO-positive samples were explored. Gram-negative aerobes were most frequently isolated, followed by gram-positive aerobes. Males were predominant in the study and majority of the patients were in the age group of 41-60 years. The presence of neuropathy was observed in 80% cases followed by peripheral vascular disease (73%). Proteus spp. (22) was the most common pathogen isolated, followed by E.coli (17). Staphylococcus aureus was predominant amongst the gram-positive isolates. S.aureus showed a high rate of resistance to antibiotic tested (63.6%). Other gram-positive isolates were found to be highly resistant to erythromycin, tetracycline and ciprofloxacin, 40% each. All isolates were found to be sensitive to Vancomycin and Linezolid. ESBL production was noted in Proteus spp and E.coli. Approximately 70 % of the patients were positive for MDRO. MDRO-infected patients had poor glycemic control (HbA1c 11± 2). Infection with MDROs is common in diabetic foot ulcers and is associated with risk factors like inadequate glycemic control, the presence of neuropathy, osteomyelitis, ulcer size and increased the requirement for surgical treatment. There is a need for continuous surveillance of resistant bacteria to provide the basis for empirical therapy and reduce the risk of complications.

Keywords: diabetic foot ulcer, bacterial infection, multidrug-resistant organism, extended spectrum beta-lactamase

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166 Disseminating Positive Psychology Resources Online: Current Research and Future Directions

Authors: Warren Jared, Bekker Jeremy, Salazar Guy, Jackman Katelyn, Linford Lauren

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Introduction: Positive Psychology research has burgeoned in the past 20 years; however, relatively few evidence-based resources to cultivate positive psychology skills are widely available to the general public. The positive psychology resources at www.mybestself101.org were developed to assist individuals in cultivating well-being using a variety of techniques, including gratitude, purpose, mindfulness, self-compassion, savoring, personal growth, and supportive relationships. These resources are empirically based and are built to be accessible to a broad audience. Key Objectives: This presentation highlights results from two recent randomized intervention studies of specific MBS101 learning modules. A key objective of this research is to empirically assess the efficacy and usability of these online resources. Another objective of this research is to encourage the broad dissemination of online positive psychology resources; thus, recommendations for further research and dissemination will be discussed. Methods: In both interventions, we recruited adult participants using social media advertisements. The participants completed several well-being and positive psychology construct-specific measures (savoring and self-compassion measures) at baseline and post-intervention. Participants in the experimental condition were also given a feedback questionnaire to gather qualitative data on how participants viewed the modules. Participants in the self-compassion study were randomly split between an experimental group, who received the treatment, and a control group, who were placed on a waitlist. There was no control group for the savoring study. Participants were instructed to read content on the module and practice savoring or self-compassion strategies listed in the module for a minimum of twenty minutes a day for 21 days. The intervention was semi-structured, as participants were free to choose which module activities they would complete from a menu of research-based strategies. Participants tracked which activities they completed and how long they spent on the modules each day. Results: In the savoring study, participants increased in savoring ability as indicated by multiple measures. In addition, participants increased in well-being from pre- to post-treatment. In the self-compassion study, repeated measures mixed model analyses revealed that compared to waitlist controls, participants who used the MBS101 self-compassion module experienced significant improvements in self-compassion, well-being, and body image with effect sizes ranging from medium to large. Attrition was 10.5% for the self-compassion study and 71% for the savoring study. Overall, participants indicated that the modules were generally helpful, and they particularly appreciated the specific strategy menus. Participants requested more structured course activities, more interactive content, and more practice activities overall. Recommendations: Mybestself101.org is an applied positive psychology research program that shows promise as a model for effectively disseminating evidence-based positive psychology resources that are both engaging and easily accessible. Considerable research is still needed, both to test the efficacy and usability of the modules currently available and to improve them based on participant feedback. Feedback received from participants in the randomized controlled trial led to the development of an expanded, 30-day online course called The Gift of Self-Compassion and an online mindfulness course currently in development called Mindfulness For Humans.

Keywords: positive psychology, intervention, online resources, self-compassion, dissemination, online curriculum

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165 Characterizing the Spatially Distributed Differences in the Operational Performance of Solar Power Plants Considering Input Volatility: Evidence from China

Authors: Bai-Chen Xie, Xian-Peng Chen

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China has become the world's largest energy producer and consumer, and its development of renewable energy is of great significance to global energy governance and the fight against climate change. The rapid growth of solar power in China could help achieve its ambitious carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets early. However, the non-technical costs of solar power in China are much higher than at international levels, meaning that inefficiencies are rooted in poor management and improper policy design and that efficiency distortions have become a serious challenge to the sustainable development of the renewable energy industry. Unlike fossil energy generation technologies, the output of solar power is closely related to the volatile solar resource, and the spatial unevenness of solar resource distribution leads to potential efficiency spatial distribution differences. It is necessary to develop an efficiency evaluation method that considers the volatility of solar resources and explores the mechanism of the influence of natural geography and social environment on the spatially varying characteristics of efficiency distribution to uncover the root causes of managing inefficiencies. The study sets solar resources as stochastic inputs, introduces a chance-constrained data envelopment analysis model combined with the directional distance function, and measures the solar resource utilization efficiency of 222 solar power plants in representative photovoltaic bases in northwestern China. By the meta-frontier analysis, we measured the characteristics of different power plant clusters and compared the differences among groups, discussed the mechanism of environmental factors influencing inefficiencies, and performed statistical tests through the system generalized method of moments. Rational localization of power plants is a systematic project that requires careful consideration of the full utilization of solar resources, low transmission costs, and power consumption guarantee. Suitable temperature, precipitation, and wind speed can improve the working performance of photovoltaic modules, reasonable terrain inclination can reduce land cost, and the proximity to cities strongly guarantees the consumption of electricity. The density of electricity demand and high-tech industries is more important than resource abundance because they trigger the clustering of power plants to result in a good demonstration and competitive effect. To ensure renewable energy consumption, increased support for rural grids and encouraging direct trading between generators and neighboring users will provide solutions. The study will provide proposals for improving the full life-cycle operational activities of solar power plants in China to reduce high non-technical costs and improve competitiveness against fossil energy sources.

Keywords: solar power plants, environmental factors, data envelopment analysis, efficiency evaluation

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164 Populism as a Society Dividing Discourse in Lithuania: The Case of the Elections of Parliament of the Republic of Lithuania of 2024

Authors: Vaicekauskiene G., Nabazaite E.

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This study analyses the rise of global populism in Western democracies, focusing primarily on the populist rhetoric. Populist rhetoric is based on anti-pluralist ideas, opposing a “homogeneous nation” against “dangerous others” who are pushed out of the nation by populists, and can be citizens from both in-groups and out-groups. This study will examine the case of the elections of Parliament of the Republic of Lithuania of 2024. Fifteen candidate lists of parties and coalitions participated in the elections to the Lithuanian Parliament in 2024. Focus group methodology will be used to analyse the narratives of party supporters actively engaged in politics, trying to identify public support/opposition to populism. Liberal democracy is experiencing a crisis in both the US and Western democracies in Europe. The election results of recent years are increasingly announcing populist victories or the creation of new populist parties. Far-right parties lead the governments in three countries – Hungary, Slovakia, and Italy, and they are part of the ruling coalition in Sweden, Finland, and the Netherlands. It will become clear in the USA whether Donald Trump will be re-elected as president in November of this year. Trump’s victory in 2016 was named by political scientists as the apotheosis of populism. Influential politicians consolidate all bad manners and social categorization in the digital era of demagoguery. The research shows that a significant proportion of democratic societies also support this divisive discourse. Citizens, as consumers of information, often approve of populist communication themselves. New parliament elections were held in Lithuania in October 2024. Ideas that polarize society were amplified in the public space, negativism increased, and with it distrust towards the state, its institutions, and democratically elected politicians, “enemies” were sought and conspiracy theories were created. Problem of the Study. This study analyses the global rise of populism from the perspective of Lithuania with various groups of society, trying to understand the relationship of citizens with democracy through believing in populists, approval/disapproval of the expression of populism. Opinions are an important challenge when trying to find the truth in the age of populism, because democratic societies are based on the culture of discussion and the idea of consensus. Methodology. This study will deconstruct the narratives of Lithuanian citizens from the point of view of populism. Fifteen focus group discussions will be held with supporters of the party lists that participated in the Parliament elections of the Republic of Lithuania during November-December 2024. The main unifying criterion for focus group participants is their political activity, while the distinguishing criteria are age, gender and place of residence. Fifteen focus groups were chosen due to the fact that fifteen candidate lists of parties and coalitions participated in the elections and seeking to ensure the variety of participants. This study aims to emphasize populism as a communication phenomenon in Lithuania. Public testimonies and experiences will reveal new meanings about the understanding of populism and support/opposition towards it.

Keywords: democracy, narratives in populist rhetoric, populist rhetoric, populism

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163 Parents’ Perceptions of the Consent Arrangements for Dental Public Health Programmes in North London: A Qualitative Exploration

Authors: Charlotte Jeavons, Charitini Stavropoulous, Nicolas Drey

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Background: Over one-third of five-year-olds and almost half of all eight-year-olds in the UK have obvious caries experience that can be detected by visual screening techniques. School-based caries preventions programs to apply fluoride varnish to young children’s teeth operate in many areas in the UK. Their aim is to reduce dental caries in children. The Department of Health guidance (2009) on consent states information must be provided to parents to enable informed autonomous decision-making prior to any treatment involving their young children. Fluoride varnish schemes delivered in primary schools use letters for this purpose. Parents are expected to return these indicating their consent or refusal. A large proportion of parents do not respond. In the absence of positive consent, these children are excluded from the program. Non-response is more common in deprived areas creating inequality. The reason for this is unknown. The consent process used is underpinned by the ethical theory of deontology that is prevalent in clinical dentistry and widely accepted in bio-ethics. Objective: To investigate parents’ views, understanding and experience of the fluoride varnish program taking place in their child’s school, including their views about the practical consent arrangements. Method: Schools participating in the fluoride varnish scheme operating in Enfield, North London, were asked to take part. Parents with children in nursery, reception, or year one were invited to participate via semi-structured interviews and focus groups. Thematic analysis was conducted. Findings: 40 parents were recruited from eight schools. The global theme of ‘trust’ was identified as the strongest influence on parental responses. Six themes were identified; protecting children from harm is viewed by parents as their role, parents have the capability to decide but lack confidence, sharing responsibility for their child’s oral health with the State is welcomed by a parent, existing relationships within parents’ social networks strongly influences consent decisions, official dental information is not communicated effectively, sending a letter to parents’ and excluding them from meeting dental practitioners is ineffective. The information delivered via a letter was not strongly identified by parents as influencing their response. Conclusions: Personal contact with the person(s) providing information and requesting consent has a greater impact on parental consent responses than written information provided alone. This demonstrates that traditional bio-ethical ideas about rational decision-making where emotions are transcended and interference is not justified unless preventing harm to an unaware person are outdated. Parental decision-making is relational and the consent process should be adapted to reflect this. The current system that has a deontology view of decision making at its core impoverishes parental autonomy and may, ultimately, increase dental inequalities as a result.

Keywords: consent, decision, ethics, fluoride, parents

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162 Centrality and Patent Impact: Coupled Network Analysis of Artificial Intelligence Patents Based on Co-Cited Scientific Papers

Authors: Xingyu Gao, Qiang Wu, Yuanyuan Liu, Yue Yang

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In the era of the knowledge economy, the relationship between scientific knowledge and patents has garnered significant attention. Understanding the intricate interplay between the foundations of science and technological innovation has emerged as a pivotal challenge for both researchers and policymakers. This study establishes a coupled network of artificial intelligence patents based on co-cited scientific papers. Leveraging centrality metrics from network analysis offers a fresh perspective on understanding the influence of information flow and knowledge sharing within the network on patent impact. The study initially obtained patent numbers for 446,890 granted US AI patents from the United States Patent and Trademark Office’s artificial intelligence patent database for the years 2002-2020. Subsequently, specific information regarding these patents was acquired using the Lens patent retrieval platform. Additionally, a search and deduplication process was performed on scientific non-patent references (SNPRs) using the Web of Science database, resulting in the selection of 184,603 patents that cited 37,467 unique SNPRs. Finally, this study constructs a coupled network comprising 59,379 artificial intelligence patents by utilizing scientific papers co-cited in patent backward citations. In this network, nodes represent patents, and if patents reference the same scientific papers, connections are established between them, serving as edges within the network. Nodes and edges collectively constitute the patent coupling network. Structural characteristics such as node degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and closeness centrality are employed to assess the scientific connections between patents, while citation count is utilized as a quantitative metric for patent influence. Finally, a negative binomial model is employed to test the nonlinear relationship between these network structural features and patent influence. The research findings indicate that network structural features such as node degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and closeness centrality exhibit inverted U-shaped relationships with patent influence. Specifically, as these centrality metrics increase, patent influence initially shows an upward trend, but once these features reach a certain threshold, patent influence starts to decline. This discovery suggests that moderate network centrality is beneficial for enhancing patent influence, while excessively high centrality may have a detrimental effect on patent influence. This finding offers crucial insights for policymakers, emphasizing the importance of encouraging moderate knowledge flow and sharing to promote innovation when formulating technology policies. It suggests that in certain situations, data sharing and integration can contribute to innovation. Consequently, policymakers can take measures to promote data-sharing policies, such as open data initiatives, to facilitate the flow of knowledge and the generation of innovation. Additionally, governments and relevant agencies can achieve broader knowledge dissemination by supporting collaborative research projects, adjusting intellectual property policies to enhance flexibility, or nurturing technology entrepreneurship ecosystems.

Keywords: centrality, patent coupling network, patent influence, social network analysis

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161 Understanding Stock-Out of Pharmaceuticals in Timor-Leste: A Case Study in Identifying Factors Impacting on Pharmaceutical Quantification in Timor-Leste

Authors: Lourenco Camnahas, Eileen Willis, Greg Fisher, Jessie Gunson, Pascale Dettwiller, Charlene Thornton

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Stock-out of pharmaceuticals is a common issue at all level of health services in Timor-Leste, a small post-conflict country. This lead to the research questions: what are the current methods used to quantify pharmaceutical supplies; what factors contribute to the on-going pharmaceutical stock-out? The study examined factors that influence the pharmaceutical supply chain system. Methodology: Privett and Goncalvez dependency model has been adopted for the design of the qualitative interviews. The model examines pharmaceutical supply chain management at three management levels: management of individual pharmaceutical items, health facilities, and health systems. The interviews were conducted in order to collect information on inventory management, logistics management information system (LMIS) and the provision of pharmaceuticals. Andersen' behavioural model for healthcare utilization also informed the interview schedule, specifically factors linked to environment (healthcare system and external environment) and the population (enabling factors). Forty health professionals (bureaucrats, clinicians) and six senior officers from a United Nations Agency, a global multilateral agency and a local non-governmental organization were interviewed on their perceptions of factors (healthcare system/supply chain and wider environment) impacting on stock out. Additionally, policy documents for the entire healthcare system, along with population data were collected. Findings: An analysis using Pozzebon’s critical interpretation identified a range of difficulties within the system from poor coordination to failure to adhere to policy guidelines along with major difficulties with inventory management, quantification, forecasting, and budgetary constraints. Weak logistics management information system, lack of capacity in inventory management, monitoring and supervision are additional organizational factors that also contributed to the issue. There were various methods of quantification of pharmaceuticals applied in the government sector, and non-governmental organizations. Lack of reliable data is one of the major problems in the pharmaceutical provision. Global Fund has the best quantification methods fed by consumption data and malaria cases. There are other issues that worsen stock-out: political intervention, work ethic and basic infrastructure such as unreliable internet connectivity. Major issues impacting on pharmaceutical quantification have been identified. However, current data collection identified limitations within the Andersen model; specifically, a failure to take account of predictors in the healthcare system and the environment (culture/politics/social. The next step is to (a) compare models used by three non-governmental agencies with the government model; (b) to run the Andersen explanatory model for pharmaceutical expenditure for 2 to 5 drug items used by these three development partners in order to see how it correlates with the present model in terms of quantification and forecasting the needs; (c) to repeat objectives (a) and (b) using the government model; (d) to draw a conclusion about the strength.

Keywords: inventory management, pharmaceutical forecasting and quantification, pharmaceutical stock-out, pharmaceutical supply chain management

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160 qPCR Method for Detection of Halal Food Adulteration

Authors: Gabriela Borilova, Monika Petrakova, Petr Kralik

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Nowadays, European producers are increasingly interested in the production of halal meat products. Halal meat has been increasingly appearing in the EU's market network and meat products from European producers are being exported to Islamic countries. Halal criteria are mainly related to the origin of muscle used in production, and also to the way products are obtained and processed. Although the EU has legislatively addressed the question of food authenticity, the circumstances of previous years when products with undeclared horse or poultry meat content appeared on EU markets raised the question of the effectiveness of control mechanisms. Replacement of expensive or not-available types of meat for low-priced meat has been on a global scale for a long time. Likewise, halal products may be contaminated (falsified) by pork or food components obtained from pigs. These components include collagen, offal, pork fat, mechanically separated pork, emulsifier, blood, dried blood, dried blood plasma, gelatin, and others. These substances can influence sensory properties of the meat products - color, aroma, flavor, consistency and texture or they are added for preservation and stabilization. Food manufacturers sometimes access these substances mainly due to their dense availability and low prices. However, the use of these substances is not always declared on the product packaging. Verification of the presence of declared ingredients, including the detection of undeclared ingredients, are among the basic control procedures for determining the authenticity of food. Molecular biology methods, based on DNA analysis, offer rapid and sensitive testing. The PCR method and its modification can be successfully used to identify animal species in single- and multi-ingredient raw and processed foods and qPCR is the first choice for food analysis. Like all PCR-based methods, it is simple to implement and its greatest advantage is the absence of post-PCR visualization by electrophoresis. qPCR allows detection of trace amounts of nucleic acids, and by comparing an unknown sample with a calibration curve, it can also provide information on the absolute quantity of individual components in the sample. Our study addresses a problem that is related to the fact that the molecular biological approach of most of the work associated with the identification and quantification of animal species is based on the construction of specific primers amplifying the selected section of the mitochondrial genome. In addition, the sections amplified in conventional PCR are relatively long (hundreds of bp) and unsuitable for use in qPCR, because in DNA fragmentation, amplification of long target sequences is quite limited. Our study focuses on finding a suitable genomic DNA target and optimizing qPCR to reduce variability and distortion of results, which is necessary for the correct interpretation of quantification results. In halal products, the impact of falsification of meat products by the addition of components derived from pigs is all the greater that it is not just about the economic aspect but above all about the religious and social aspect. This work was supported by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Czech Republic (QJ1530107).

Keywords: food fraud, halal food, pork, qPCR

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159 A Qualitative Investigation into Street Art in an Indonesian City

Authors: Michelle Mansfield

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Introduction: This paper uses the work of Deleuze and Guattari to consider the street art practice of youth in the Indonesian city of Yogyakarta, a hub of arts and culture in Central Java. Around the world young people have taken to city streets to populate the new informal exhibition spaces outside the galleries of official art institutions. However, rarely is the focus outside the urban metropolis of the ‘Global North.' This paper looks at these practices in a ‘Global South’ Asian context. Space and place are concepts central to understanding youth cultural expression as it emerges on the streets. Deleuze and Guattari’s notion of assemblage enriches understanding of this complex spatial and creative relationship. Yogyakarta street art combines global patterns and motifs with local meanings, symbolism, and language to express local youth voices that convey a unique sense of place on the world stage. Street art has developed as a global urban youth art movement and is theorised as a way in which marginalised young people reclaim urban space for themselves. Methodologies: This study utilised a variety of qualitative methodologies to collect and analyse data. This project took a multi-method approach to data collection, incorporating the qualitative social research methods of ethnography, nongkrong (deep hanging out), participatory action research, online research, in-depth interviews and focus group discussions. Both interviews and focus groups employed photo-elicitation methodology to stimulate rich data gathering. To analyse collected data, rhizoanalytic approaches incorporating discourse analysis and visual analysis were utilised. Street art practice is a fluid and shifting phenomenon, adding to the complexity of inquiry sites. A qualitative approach to data collection and analysis was the most appropriate way to map the components of the street art assemblage and to draw out complexities of this youth cultural practice in Yogyakarta. Major Findings: The rhizoanalytic approach devised for this study proved a useful way of examining in the street art assemblage. It illustrated the ways in which the street art assemblage is constructed. Especially the interaction of inspiration, materials, creative techniques, audiences, and spaces operate in the creations of artworks. The study also exposed the generational tensions between the senior arts practitioners, the established art world, and the young artists. Conclusion: In summary, within the spatial processes of the city, street art is inextricably linked with its audience, its striving artistic community and everyday life in the smooth rather than the striated worlds of the state and the official art world. In this way, the anarchic rhizomatic art practice of nomadic urban street crews can be described not only as ‘becoming-artist’ but as constituting ‘nomos’, a way of arranging elements which are not dependent on a structured, hierarchical organisation practice. The site, streets, crews, neighbourhood and the passers by can all be examined with the concept of assemblage. The assemblage effectively brings into focus the complexity, dynamism, and flows of desire that is a feature of street art practice by young people in Yogyakarta.

Keywords: assemblage, Indonesia, street art, youth

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158 Improvement of Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule Scores after Comprehensive Intensive Early Interventions in a Clinical Setting

Authors: Nils Haglund, Svenolof Dahlgren, Maria Rastam, Peik Gustafsson, Karin Kalien

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In Sweden, like in most developed countries, there is a substantial increase of children diagnosed with autism and other conditions within the autism spectrum (ASD). The rapid increase of ASD rates stresses the importance of developing care programs to provide support and comprehensive interventions for affected families. The current observational study was conducted in order to evaluate an ongoing Comprehensive Intensive Early Intervention (CIEI) program for children with autism in southern Sweden. The change in autism symptoms among children participating in CIEI (intervention group, n=67) was compared with children who received traditional habilitation services only (comparison group, n=27). Children of parents who accepted the offered CIEI-program, constituted the intervention group, whereas children, whose parents (for some reason) were not interested in the offered CIEI-program, constituted the comparison group. The CIEI-program was individualized to each child by experienced applied behavior analysis (ABA) specialists with different backgrounds as psychologists, speech pathologists or special education teachers, in cooperation with parents and preschool staff. Due to the individualization, the intervention could vary in intensity and techniques. The intensity was calculated to 15-25 hours each week at home and the preschool altogether. Each child was assigned one 'trainer', who was often employed as a preschool teacher but could have another educational background. An agreement between supervisor- parents and preschool staff was reached to confirm the intensity and content of the CIEI- program over an approximately two-year intervention period. Symptom changes were measured as evaluation-ADOS-2-scores, total- and severity-scores, minus the corresponding baseline-scores, divided by the time between baseline and evaluation. The difference between the study-groups regarding change of ADOS-2-scores was estimated using ANCOVA. In the current study, children in the CIEI-group improved their ADOS-2-total scores between baseline and evaluation (-0.8 scores per year; 95%CI: -1.2 to -0.4), whereas no such improvement was detected in the comparison group (+0.1 scores per year; 95%CI: -0.7 to +0.9). The change difference (change in the CIEI-group vs. change in the comparison group) was statistically significant, both crude and after adjusting for possible confounders (-1.1; 95%CI -1.9 to -0.4). Children in the CIEI-group also significantly improved their ADOS-calibrated severity scores, but not significantly differently so from the comparison group. The results from the current study indicate that the CIEI program significantly improves social and communicative skills among children with autism and that children with developmental delay could benefit to a similar degree as other children. The results support earlier studies reporting on the improvement of autism symptoms after early intensive interventions. The results from observational studies are difficult to interpret, but it is nevertheless of uttermost importance to evaluate costly autism intervention programs. Such results may be of immediate importance to healthcare organizations when allocating the already strained resources to different patient groups. Albeit the obvious limitation of the current naturalistic study, the results support previous positive studies and indicate that children with autism benefit from participating in early comprehensive, intensive programs and that investments in these programs may be highly justifiable.

Keywords: autism symptoms, ADOS-scores, evaluation, intervention program

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157 Perception of Health Care Providers on the Use of Modern Contraception by Adolescents in Rwanda

Authors: Jocelyne Uwibambe, Ange Thaina Ndizeye, Dinah Ishimwe, Emmanuel Mugabo Byakagaba

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Background: In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), the use of modern contraceptive methods among women, including adolescents, is still low despite the desire to avoid pregnancy. In addition, countries have set a minimum age for marriage, which is 21 years for most countries, including Rwanda. The Rwandan culture, to a certain extent, and religion, to a greater extent, however, limit the freedom of young women to use contraceptive services because it is wrongly perceived as an encouragement for premarital sexual intercourse. In the end, what doesn’t change is that denying access to contraceptives to either male or female adolescents does not translate into preventing them from sexual activities, hence leading to an ever-increasing number of unwanted pregnancies, possible STIs, HIV, Human Papilloma Virus, and subsequent unsafe abortion followed by avoidable expensive complications. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the perception of healthcare providers regarding contraceptive use among adolescents. Methodology: This was a qualitative study. Interviews were done with different healthcare providers, including doctors, nurses, midwives, and pharmacists, through focused group discussions and in-depth interviews, then the audio was transcribed, translated and thematic coding was done. Results: This study explored the perceptions of healthcare workers regarding the provision of modern contraception to adolescents in Rwanda. The findings revealed that while healthcare providers had a good understanding of family planning and contraception, they were hesitant to provide contraception to adolescents. Sociocultural beliefs played a significant role in shaping their attitudes, as many healthcare workers believed that providing contraception to adolescents would encourage promiscuous behavior and go against cultural norms. Religious beliefs also influenced their reluctance, with some healthcare providers considering premarital sex and contraception as sinful. Lack of knowledge among parents and adolescents themselves was identified as a contributing factor to unwanted pregnancies, as inaccurate information from peers and social media influenced risky sexual behavior. Conditional policies, such as the requirement for parental consent, further hindered adolescents' access to contraception. The study suggested several solutions, including comprehensive sexual and reproductive health education, involving multiple stakeholders, ensuring easy access to contraception, and involving adolescents in policymaking. Overall, this research highlights the need for addressing sociocultural beliefs, improving healthcare providers' knowledge, and revisiting policies to ensure adolescents' reproductive health rights are met in Rwanda. Conclusion: The study highlights the importance of enhancing healthcare provider training, expanding access to modern contraception, implementing community-based interventions, and strengthening policy and programmatic support for adolescent contraception. Addressing these challenges is crucial for improving the provision of family planning services to adolescents in Rwanda and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals related to sexual and reproductive health. Collaborative efforts involving various stakeholders and organizations can contribute to overcoming these barriers and promoting the well-being of adolescents in Rwanda.

Keywords: adolescent, health care providers, contraception, reproductive health

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156 A Corpus-Based Analysis of "MeToo" Discourse in South Korea: Coverage Representation in Korean Newspapers

Authors: Sun-Hee Lee, Amanda Kraley

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The “MeToo” movement is a social movement against sexual abuse and harassment. Though the hashtag went viral in 2017 following different cultural flashpoints in different countries, the initial response was quiet in South Korea. This radically changed in January 2018, when a high-ranking senior prosecutor, Seo Ji-hyun, gave a televised interview discussing being sexually assaulted by a colleague. Acknowledging public anger, particularly among women, on the long-existing problems of sexual harassment and abuse, the South Korean media have focused on several high-profile cases. Analyzing the media representation of these cases is a window into the evolving South Korean discourse around “MeToo.” This study presents a linguistic analysis of “MeToo” discourse in South Korea by utilizing a corpus-based approach. The term corpus (pl. corpora) is used to refer to electronic language data, that is, any collection of recorded instances of spoken or written language. A “MeToo” corpus has been collected by extracting newspaper articles containing the keyword “MeToo” from BIGKinds, big data analysis, and service and Nexis Uni, an online academic database search engine, to conduct this language analysis. The corpus analysis explores how Korean media represent accusers and the accused, victims and perpetrators. The extracted data includes 5,885 articles from four broadsheet newspapers (Chosun, JoongAng, Hangyore, and Kyunghyang) and 88 articles from two Korea-based English newspapers (Korea Times and Korea Herald) between January 2017 and November 2020. The information includes basic data analysis with respect to keyword frequency and network analysis and adds refined examinations of select corpus samples through naming strategies, semantic relations, and pragmatic properties. Along with the exponential increase of the number of articles containing the keyword “MeToo” from 104 articles in 2017 to 3,546 articles in 2018, the network and keyword analysis highlights ‘US,’ ‘Harvey Weinstein’, and ‘Hollywood,’ as keywords for 2017, with articles in 2018 highlighting ‘Seo Ji-Hyun, ‘politics,’ ‘President Moon,’ ‘An Ui-Jeong, ‘Lee Yoon-taek’ (the names of perpetrators), and ‘(Korean) society.’ This outcome demonstrates the shift of media focus from international affairs to domestic cases. Another crucial finding is that word ‘defamation’ is widely distributed in the “MeToo” corpus. This relates to the South Korean legal system, in which a person who defames another by publicly alleging information detrimental to their reputation—factual or fabricated—is punishable by law (Article 307 of the Criminal Act of Korea). If the defamation occurs on the internet, it is subject to aggravated punishment under the Act on Promotion of Information and Communications Network Utilization and Information Protection. These laws, in particular, have been used against accusers who have publicly come forward in the wake of “MeToo” in South Korea, adding an extra dimension of risk. This corpus analysis of “MeToo” newspaper articles contributes to the analysis of the media representation of the “MeToo” movement and sheds light on the shifting landscape of gender relations in the public sphere in South Korea.

Keywords: corpus linguistics, MeToo, newspapers, South Korea

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155 Comparing Community Health Agents, Physicians and Nurses in Brazil's Family Health Strategy

Authors: Rahbel Rahman, Rogério Meireles Pinto, Margareth Santos Zanchetta

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Background: Existing shortcomings of current health-service delivery include poor teamwork, competencies that do not address consumer needs, and episodic rather than continuous care. Brazil’s Sistema Único de Saúde (Unified Health System, UHS) is acknowledged worldwide as a model for delivering community-based care through Estratégia Saúde da Família (FHS; Family Health Strategy) interdisciplinary teams, comprised of Community Health Agents (in Portuguese, Agentes Comunitário de Saude, ACS), nurses, and physicians. FHS teams are mandated to collectively offer clinical care, disease prevention services, vector control, health surveillance and social services. Our study compares medical providers (nurses and physicians) and community-based providers (ACS) on their perceptions of work environment, professional skills, cognitive capacities and job context. Global health administrators and policy makers can leverage on similarities and differences across care providers to develop interprofessional training for community-based primary care. Methods: Cross-sectional data were collected from 168 ACS, 62 nurses and 32 physicians in Brazil. We compared providers’ demographic characteristics (age, race, and gender) and job context variables (caseload, work experience, work proximity to community, the length of commute, and familiarity with the community). Providers perceptions were compared to their work environment (work conditions and work resources), professional skills (consumer-input, interdisciplinary collaboration, efficacy of FHS teams, work-methods and decision-making autonomy), and cognitive capacities (knowledge and skills, skill variety, confidence and perseverance). Descriptive and bi-variate analysis, such as Pearson Chi-square and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) F-tests, were performed to draw comparisons across providers. Results: Majority of participants were ACS (64%); 24% nurses; and 12% physicians. Majority of nurses and ACS identified as mixed races (ACS, n=85; nurses, n=27); most physicians identified as males (n=16; 52%), and white (n=18; 58%). Physicians were less likely to incorporate consumer-input and demonstrated greater decision-making autonomy than nurses and ACS. ACS reported the highest levels of knowledge and skills but the least confidence compared to nurses and physicians. ACS, nurses, and physicians were efficacious that FHS teams improved the quality of health in their catchment areas, though nurses tend to disagree that interdisciplinary collaboration facilitated their work. Conclusion: To our knowledge, there has been no study comparing key demographic and cognitive variables across ACS, nurses and physicians in the context of their work environment and professional training. We suggest that global health systems can leverage upon the diverse perspectives of providers to implement a community-based primary care model grounded in interprofessional training. Our study underscores the need for in-service trainings to instill reflective skills of providers, improve communication skills of medical providers and curative skills of ACS. Greater autonomy needs to be extended to community based providers to offer care integral to addressing consumer and community needs.

Keywords: global health systems, interdisciplinary health teams, community health agents, community-based care

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154 Navigating the Future: Evaluating the Market Potential and Drivers for High-Definition Mapping in the Autonomous Vehicle Era

Authors: Loha Hashimy, Isabella Castillo

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In today's rapidly evolving technological landscape, the importance of precise navigation and mapping systems cannot be understated. As various sectors undergo transformative changes, the market potential for Advanced Mapping and Management Systems (AMMS) emerges as a critical focus area. The Galileo/GNSS-Based Autonomous Mobile Mapping System (GAMMS) project, specifically targeted toward high-definition mapping (HDM), endeavours to provide insights into this market within the broader context of the geomatics and navigation fields. With the growing integration of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) into our transportation systems, the relevance and demand for sophisticated mapping solutions like HDM have become increasingly pertinent. The research employed a meticulous, lean, stepwise, and interconnected methodology to ensure a comprehensive assessment. Beginning with the identification of pivotal project results, the study progressed into a systematic market screening. This was complemented by an exhaustive desk research phase that delved into existing literature, data, and trends. To ensure the holistic validity of the findings, extensive consultations were conducted. Academia and industry experts provided invaluable insights through interviews, questionnaires, and surveys. This multi-faceted approach facilitated a layered analysis, juxtaposing secondary data with primary inputs, ensuring that the conclusions were both accurate and actionable. Our investigation unearthed a plethora of drivers steering the HD maps landscape. These ranged from technological leaps, nuanced market demands, and influential economic factors to overarching socio-political shifts. The meteoric rise of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) and the shift towards app-based transportation solutions, such as Uber, stood out as significant market pull factors. A nuanced PESTEL analysis further enriched our understanding, shedding light on political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal facets influencing the HD maps market trajectory. Simultaneously, potential roadblocks were identified. Notable among these were barriers related to high initial costs, concerns around data quality, and the challenges posed by a fragmented and evolving regulatory landscape. The GAMMS project serves as a beacon, illuminating the vast opportunities that lie ahead for the HD mapping sector. It underscores the indispensable role of HDM in enhancing navigation, ensuring safety, and providing pinpoint, accurate location services. As our world becomes more interconnected and reliant on technology, HD maps emerge as a linchpin, bridging gaps and enabling seamless experiences. The research findings accentuate the imperative for stakeholders across industries to recognize and harness the potential of HD mapping, especially as we stand on the cusp of a transportation revolution heralded by Autonomous Vehicles and advanced geomatic solutions.

Keywords: high-definition mapping (HDM), autonomous vehicles, PESTEL analysis, market drivers

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153 Adaptive Programming for Indigenous Early Learning: The Early Years Model

Authors: Rachel Buchanan, Rebecca LaRiviere

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Context: The ongoing effects of colonialism continue to be experienced through paternalistic policies and funding processes that cause disjuncture between and across Indigenous early childhood programming on-reserve and in urban and Northern settings in Canada. While various educational organizations and social service providers have risen to address these challenges in the short, medium and long term, there continues to be a lack in nation-wide cohesive, culturally grounded, and meaningful early learning programming for Indigenous children in Canada. Indigenous-centered early learning programs tend to face one of two scaling dilemmas: their program goals are too prescriptive to enable the program to be meaningfully replicated in different cultural/ community settings, or their program goals are too broad to be meaningfully adapted to the unique cultural and contextual needs and desires of Indigenous communities (the “franchise approach”). There are over 600 First Nations communities in Canada representing more than 50 Nations and languages. Consequently, Indigenous early learning programming cannot be applied with a universal or “one size fits all” approach. Sustainable and comprehensive programming must be responsive to each community context, building upon existing strengths and assets to avoid program duplication and irrelevance. Thesis: Community-driven and culturally adapted early childhood programming is critical but cannot be achieved on a large scale within traditional program models that are constrained by prescriptive overarching program goals. Principles, rather than goals, are an effective way to navigate and evaluate complex and dynamic systems. Principles guide an intervention to be adaptable, flexible and scalable. The Martin Family Initiative (MFI) ’s Early Years program engages a principles-based approach to programming. As will be discussed in this paper, this approach enables the program to catalyze existing community-based strengths and organizational assets toward bridging gaps across and disjuncture between Indigenous early learning programs, as well as to scale programming in sustainable, context-responsive and dynamic ways. This paper argues that using a principles-driven and adaptive scaling approach, the Early Years model establishes important learnings for culturally adapted Indigenous early learning programming in Canada. Methodology: The Early Years has leveraged this approach to develop an array of programming with partner organizations and communities across the country. The Early Years began as a singular pilot project in one First Nation. In just three years, it has expanded to five different regions and community organizations. In each context, the program supports the partner organization through different means and to different ends, the extent to which is determined in partnership with each community-based organization: in some cases, this means supporting the organization to build home visiting programming from the ground-up; in others, it means offering organization-specific culturally adapted early learning resources to support the programming that already exists in communities. Principles underpin but do not define the practices of the program in each of these relationships. This paper will explore numerous examples of principles-based adaptability with the context of the Early Years, concluding that the program model offers theadaptability and dynamism necessary to respond to unique and ever-evolving community contexts and needs of Indigenous children today.

Keywords: culturally adapted programming, indigenous early learning, principles-based approach, program scaling

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152 A Rapid Assessment of the Impacts of COVID-19 on Overseas Labor Migration: Findings from Bangladesh

Authors: Vaiddehi Bansal, Ridhi Sahai, Kareem Kysia

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Overseas labor migration is currently one of the most important contributors to the economy of Bangladesh and is a highly profitable form of labor for Gulf Cooperative Council (GCC) countries. In 2019, 700,159 migrant workers from Bangladeshtraveled abroad for employment. GCC countries are a major destination for Bangladeshi migrant workers, with Saudi Arabia being the most common destination for Bangladeshi migrant workers since 2016. Despite the high rate of migration between these countries every year, the OLR industry remains complex and often leaves migrants susceptible to human trafficking, forced labor, and modern slavery. While the prevalence of forced labor among Bangladeshi migrants in GCC countries is still unknown, the IOM estimates international migrant workers comprise one fourth of the victims of forced labor. Moreover, the onset of the global COVID-19 pandemic has exposed migrant workers to additional adverse situations, making them even more vulnerable to forced labor and health risks. This paper presents findings from a rapid assessment of the impacts of COVID-19 on OLR in Bangladesh, with an emphasis on the increased risk of forced labor among vulnerable migrant worker populations, particularly women.Rapid reviews are a useful approach to swiftly provide actionable evidence for informed decision-making during emergencies, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The research team conducted semi-structured key information interviews (KIIs) with a range of stakeholders, including government officials, local NGOs, international organizations, migration researchers, and formal and informal recruiting agencies, to obtain insights on the multi-facted impacts of COVID-19 on the OLR sector. The research team also conducted a comprehensive review of available resources, including media articles, blogs, policy briefs, reports, white papers, and other online content, to triangulate findings from the KIIs. After screening for inclusion criteria, a total of 110 grey literature documents were included in the review. A total of 31 KIIs were conducted, data from which was transcribed and translated from Bangla to English, andanalyzed using a detailed codebook. Findings indicate that there was limited reintegration support for returnee migrants. Facing increasing amounts of debt, financial insecurity, and social discrimination, returnee migrants, were extremely vulnerable to forced labor and exploitation. Growing financial debt and limited job opportunities in their home country will likely push migrants to resort to unsafe migration channels. Evidence suggests that women, who are primarily domestic works in GCC countries, were exposed to increased risk of forced labor and workplace violence. Due to stay-at-home measures, women migrant workers were tasked with additional housekeeping working and subjected to longer work hours, wage withholding, and physical abuse. In Bangladesh, returnee women migrant workers also faced an increased risk of domestic violence.

Keywords: forced labor, migration, gender, human trafficking

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151 Emerging Identities: A Transformative ‘Green Zone’

Authors: Alessandra Swiny, Yiorgos Hadjichristou

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There exists an on-going geographical scar creating a division through the Island of Cyprus and its capital, Nicosia. The currently amputated city center is accessed legally by the United Nations convoys, infiltrated only by Turkish and Greek Cypriot army scouts and illegal traders and scavengers. On Christmas day 1963 in Nicosia, Captain M. Hobden of the British Army took a green chinagraph pencil and on a large scale Joint Army-RAF map ‘marked’ the division. From then on this ‘buffer zone’ was called the ‘green line.' This once dividing form, separating the main communities of Greek and Turkish Cypriots from one another, has now been fully reclaimed by an autonomous intruder. It's currently most captivating inhabitant is nature. She keeps taking over, for the past fifty years indigenous and introduced fauna and flora thrive; trees emerge from rooftops and plants, bushes and flowers grow randomly through the once bustling market streets, allowing this ‘no man’s land’ to teem with wildlife. And where are its limits? The idea of fluidity is ever present; it encroaches into the urban and built environment that surrounds it, and notions of ownership and permanence are questioned. Its qualities have contributed significantly in the search for new ‘identities,' expressed in the emergence of new living conditions, be they real or surreal. Without being physically reachable, it can be glimpsed at through punctured peepholes, military bunker windows that act as enticing portals into an emotional and conceptual level of inhabitation. The zone is mystical and simultaneously suspended in time, it triggers people’s imagination, not just that of the two prevailing communities but also of immigrants, refugees, and visitors; it mesmerizes all who come within its proximity. The paper opens a discussion on the issues and the binary questions raised. What is natural and artificial; what is private and public; what is ephemeral and permanent? The ‘green line’ exists in a central fringe condition and can serve in mixing generations and groups of people; mingling functions of living with work and social interaction; merging nature and the human being in a new-found synergy of human hope and survival, allowing thus for new notions of place to be introduced. Questions seek to be answered, such as, “Is the impossibility of dwelling made possible, by interweaving these ‘in-between conditions’ into eloquently traced spaces?” The methodologies pursued are developed through academic research, professional practice projects, and students’ research/design work. Realized projects, case studies and other examples cited both nationally and internationally hold global and local applications. Both paths of the research deal with the explorative understanding of the impossibility of dwelling, testing the limits of its autonomy. The expected outcome of the experience evokes in the user a sense of a new urban landscape, created from human topographies that echo the voice of an emerging identity.

Keywords: urban wildlife, human topographies, buffer zone, no man’s land

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150 Psychological Distress during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Nursing Students: A Mixed-Methods Study

Authors: Mayantoinette F. Watson

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During such an unprecedented time of the largest public health crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, nursing students are of the utmost concern regarding their psychological and physical well-being. Questions are emerging and circulating about what will happen to the nursing students and the long-term effects of the pandemic, especially now that hospitals are being overwhelmed with a significant need for nursing staff. Expectations, demands, change, and the fear of the unknown during this unprecedented time can only contribute to the many stressors that accompany nursing students through laborious clinical and didactic courses in nursing programs. The risk of psychological distress is at a maximum, and its effects can negatively impact not only nursing students but also nursing education and academia. The high exposures to interpersonal, economic, and academic demands contribute to the major health concerns, which include a potential risk for psychological distress. Achievement of educational success among nursing students is directly affected by the high exposure to anxiety and depression from experiences within the program. Working relationships and achieving academic success is imperative to positive student outcomes within the nursing program. The purpose of this study is to identify and establish influences and associations within multilevel factors, including the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on psychological distress in nursing students. Neuman’s Systems Model Theory was used to determine nursing students’ responses to internal and external stressors. The research in this study utilized a mixed-methods, convergent study design. The study population included undergraduate nursing students from Southeastern U.S. The research surveyed a convenience sample of undergraduate nursing students. The quantitative survey was completed by 202 participants, and 11 participants participated in the qualitative follow-up interview surveys. Participants completed the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K6), the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS4), and the Dundee Readiness Educational Environment Scale (DREEM12) to measure psychological distress, perceived stress, and perceived educational environment. Participants also answered open-ended questions regarding their experience during the COVID-19 pandemic. Statistical tests, including bivariate analyses, multiple linear regression analyses, and binary logistics regression analyses were performed in effort to identify and highlight the effects of independent variables on the dependent variable, psychological distress. Coding and qualitative content analysis were performed to identify overarching themes within participants’ interviews. Quantitative data were sufficient in identifying correlations between psychological distress and multilevel factors of coping, marital status, COVID-19 stress, perceived stress, educational environment, and social support in nursing students. Qualitative data were sufficient in identifying common themes of students’ perceptions during COVID-19 and included online learning, workload, finances, experience, breaks, time, unknown, support, encouragement, unchanged, communication, and transmission. The findings are significant, specifically regarding contributing factors to nursing students’ psychological distress, which will help to improve learning in the academic environment.

Keywords: nursing education, nursing students, pandemic, psychological distress

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149 The Role of Temples Redevelopment for Informal Sector Business Development in India

Authors: Prashant Gupta

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Throughout India, temples have served as cultural centers, commerce hubs, art galleries, educational institutions, and social centers in addition to being places of worship since centuries. Across the country, there are over two million temples, which are crucial economic hubs, attracting devotees and tourists worldwide. In India, we have 53 temples per each 100,000 Indians. As per NSSO survey, the temple economy is worth about $40 billion and 2.32 per cent of GDP based on major temple’s survey, which only includes formal sector. It could be much larger as an actual estimation has not been done yet. In India, 43.1% of total economy represents informal sector. Over 10 billion domestic tourists visit to new destinations every year within India. Even 20 per cent of the 90 million foreign tourists visited Madurai and Mahabalipuram temples which became the most visited tourist spot in 2022. Recently the current central government in power have started revitalizing the ancient Indian civilization by reconstructing and beautifying the major temples of India i.e., Kashi Vishwanath Corridor, Mahakaleshwara Temple, Kedarnath, Ayodhya etc. The reason researcher chose Kashi as a case study because it is known as a Spiritual Capital of India, which is also the abode for the spread of Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism and Sikkism, which are core Sanatan Dharmic practices. 17,800 Million INR Amount was spend to redevelop Kashi Vishwanath Corridor since 2019. RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 1. To assess historical contribution of temples in socio economic development and revival of Indic Civilization. 2. To examine the role of temples redevelopment for informal sector businesses. 3. To identify the sub-sectors of informal sector businesses 4. To identify products and services of informal businesses for investigation of marketing strategies and business development. PROPOSED METHODS AND PROCEDURES This study will follow a mixed approach, employing both qualitative and quantitative methods of research. To conduct the study, data will be collected from 500 informal business owners through structured questionnaire and interview instruments. The informal business owners will be selected using a systematic random sampling technique. In addition, documents from government offices of the last 10 years of tax collection will be reviewed to substantiate the study. To analyze the study, descriptive and econometric analysis techniques will be employed. EXPECTED CONTRIBUTION OF THE PROPOSED STUDY By studying the contribution of temple re-development on informal business creation and growth, the study will be beneficial to the informal business owners and the government. For the government, scientific and empirical evidence on the contribution of temple re-development for informal business creation and growth to give evidence the study will give based infrastructural development and boosting tax collection. For informal businesses, the study will give them a detailed insight on the nature of their business and the possible future growth potential of their business, and the alternative products and services supplying to their customers in the future. Studying informal businesses will help to identify the key products and services which are majorly profitable and possess potential to multiply and grow through correct product marketing strategies and business development.

Keywords: business development, informal sector businesses, services and products marketing, temple economics

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148 OASIS: An Alternative Access to Potable Water, Renewable Energy and Organic Food

Authors: Julien G. Chenet, Mario A. Hernandez, U. Leonardo Rodriguez

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The tropical areas are places where there is scarcity of access to potable water and where renewable energies need further development. They also display high undernourishment levels, even though they are one of the resources-richest areas in the world. In these areas, it is common to count on great extension of soils, high solar radiation and raw water from rain, groundwater, surface water or even saltwater. Even though resources are available, access to them is limited, and the low-density habitat makes central solutions expensive and investments not worthy. In response to this lack of investment, rural inhabitants use fossil fuels and timber as an energy source and import agrochemical for soils fertilization, which increase GHG emissions. The OASIS project brings an answer to this situation. It supplies renewable energy, potable water and organic food. The first step is the determination of the needs of the communities in terms of energy, water quantity and quality, food requirements and soil characteristics. Second step is the determination of the available resources, such as solar energy, raw water and organic residues on site. The pilot OASIS project is located in the Vichada department, Colombia, and ensures the sustainable use of natural resources to meet the community needs. The department has roughly 70% of indigenous people. They live in a very scattered landscape, with no access to clean water and energy. They use polluted surface water for direct consumption and diesel for energy purposes. OASIS pilot will ensure basic needs for a 400-students education center. In this case, OASIS will provide 20 kW of solar energy potential and 40 liters per student per day. Water will be treated form groundwater, with two qualities. A conventional one with chlorine, and as the indigenous people are not used to chlorine for direct consumption, second train is with reverse osmosis to bring conservable safe water without taste. OASIS offers a solution to supply basic needs, shifting from fossil fuels, timber, to a no-GHG-emission solution. This solution is part of the mitigation strategy against Climate Change for the communities in low-density areas of the tropics. OASIS is a learning center to teach how to convert natural resources into utilizable ones. It is also a meeting point for the community with high pedagogic impact that promotes the efficient and sustainable use of resources. OASIS system is adaptable to any tropical area and competes technically and economically with any conventional solution, that needs transport of energy, treated water and food. It is a fully automatic, replicable and sustainable solution to sort out the issue of access to basic needs in rural areas. OASIS is also a solution to undernourishment, ensuring a responsible use of resources, to prevent long-term pollution of soils and groundwater. It promotes the closure of the nutrient cycle, and the optimal use of the land whilst ensuring food security in depressed low-density regions of the tropics. OASIS is under optimization to Vichada conditions, and will be available to any other tropical area in the following months.

Keywords: climate change adaptation and mitigation, rural development, sustainable access to clean and renewable resources, social inclusion

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147 A Comparative Analysis on the Impact of the Prevention and Combating of Hate Crimes and Hate Speech Bill of 2016 on the Rights to Human Dignity, Equality, and Freedom in South Africa

Authors: Tholaine Matadi

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South Africa is a democratic country with a historical record of racially-motivated marginalisation and exclusion of the majority. During the apartheid era the country was run along pieces of legislation and policies based on racial segregation. The system held a tight clamp on interracial mixing which forced people to remain in segregated areas. For example, a citizen from the Indian community could not own property in an area allocated to white people. In this way, a great majority of people were denied basic human rights. Now, there is a supreme constitution with an entrenched justiciable Bill of Rights founded on democratic values of social justice, human dignity, equality and the advancement of human rights and freedoms. The Constitution also enshrines the values of non-racialism and non-sexism. The Constitutional Court has the power to declare unconstitutional any law or conduct considered to be inconsistent with it. Now, more than two decades down the line, despite the abolition of apartheid, there is evidence that South Africa still experiences hate crimes which violate the entrenched right of vulnerable groups not to be discriminated against on the basis of race, sexual orientation, gender, national origin, occupation, or disability. To remedy this mischief parliament has responded by drafting the Prevention and Combatting of Hate Crimes and Hate Speech Bill. The Bill has been disseminated for public comment and suggestions. It is intended to combat hate crimes and hate speech based on sheer prejudice. The other purpose of the Bill is to bring South Africa in line with international human rights instruments against racism, racial discrimination, xenophobia and related expressions of intolerance identified in several international instruments. It is against this backdrop that this paper intends to analyse the impact of the Bill on the rights to human dignity, equality, and freedom. This study is significant because the Bill was highly contested and creates a huge debate. This study relies on a qualitative evaluative approach based on desktop and library research. The article recurs to primary and secondary sources. For comparative purpose, the paper compares South Africa with countries such as Australia, Canada, Kenya, Cuba, and United Kingdom which have criminalised hate crimes and hate speech. The finding from this study is that despite the Bill’s expressed positive intentions, this draft legislation is problematic for several reasons. The main reason is that it generates considerable controversy mostly because it is considered to infringe the right to freedom of expression. Though the author suggests that the Bill should not be rejected in its entirety, she notes the brutal psychological effect of hate crimes on their direct victims and the writer emphasises that a legislature can succeed to combat hate-crimes only if it provides for them as a separate stand-alone category of offences. In view of these findings, the study recommended that since hate speech clauses have a negative impact on freedom of expression it can be promulgated, subject to the legislature enacting the Prevention and Combatting of Hate-Crimes Bill as a stand-alone law which criminalises hate crimes.

Keywords: freedom of expression, hate crimes, hate speech, human dignity

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146 Guiding Urban Development in a Traditional Neighbourhood: Case Application of Kolkata

Authors: Nabamita Nath, Sanghamitra Sarkar

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Urban development in traditional neighbourhoods of cities is undergoing a sea change due to imposition of irregular development patterns on a predominantly inclusive urban fabric. In recent times, traditional neighbourhoods of Kolkata have experienced irregular urban development which has resulted in transformation of its immediate urban character. The goal is to study and analyse impact of new urban developments within traditional neighbourhoods of Kolkata and establish development guidelines to balance the old with the new. Various cities predominantly in third world countries are also experiencing similar development patterns in their traditional neighbourhoods. Existing literature surveys of development patterns in such neighbourhoods have established 9 major parameters viz. edge, movement, node, landmark, size-density, pattern-grain-texture, open spaces, urban spaces, urban form and views-vistas of the neighbourhood. To evaluate impact of urban development in traditional neighbourhoods of Kolkata, 3 different areas have been chronologically selected based on their settlement patterns. Parameters established through literature surveys have been applied to the selected areas to study and analyse the existing patterns of development. The main sources of this study included extensive on-site surveys, academic archive, census data, organisational records and informational websites. Applying the established parameters, 5 major conclusions were derived. Firstly, it was found that pedestrian friendly neighbourhoods of the city were becoming more car-centric. This has resulted in loss of interactive and social spaces which defined the cultural heritage of Kolkata. Secondly, the urban pattern which was composed of dense and compact fabric is gradually losing its character due to incorporation of new building typologies. Thirdly, the new building typologies include gated communities with private open spaces which is a stark departure from the existing built typology. However, these open spaces have not contributed in creation of inclusive public places for the community which are a significant part of such heritage neighbourhood precincts. Fourthly, commercial zones that primarily developed along major access routes have now infiltrated within these neighbourhoods. Gated communities do not favour formation of on-street commercial activities generating haphazard development patterns. Lastly, individual residential buildings that reflected Indo-saracenic and Neo-gothic architectural styles are converting into multi-storeyed residential apartments. As a result, the axis that created a definite visual identity for a neighbourhood is progressively following an irregular pattern. Thus, uniformity of the old skyline is gradually becoming inconsistent. The major issue currently is threat caused by irregular urban development to heritage zones and buildings of traditional neighbourhoods. Streets, lanes, courtyards, open spaces and buildings of old neighbourhoods imparted a unique cultural identity to the city that is disappearing with emerging urban development patterns. It has been concluded that specific guidelines for urban development should be regulated primarily based on existing urban form of traditional neighbourhoods. Such neighbourhood development strategies should be formulated for various cities of third world countries to control irregular developments thereby balancing heritage and development.

Keywords: heritage, Kolkata, traditional neighbourhood, urban development

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145 Solar Photovoltaic Driven Air-Conditioning for Commercial Buildings: A Case of Botswana

Authors: Taboka Motlhabane, Pradeep Sahoo

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The global demand for cooling has grown exponentially over the past century to meet economic development and social needs, accounting for approximately 10% of the global electricity consumption. As global temperatures continue to rise, the demand for cooling and heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) equipment is set to rise with it. The increased use of HVAC equipment has significantly contributed to the growth of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which aid the climate crisis- one of the biggest challenges faced by the current generation. The need to address emissions caused directly by HVAC equipment and electricity generated to meet the cooling or heating demand is ever more pressing. Currently, developed countries account for the largest cooling and heating demand, however developing countries are anticipated to experience a huge increase in population growth in 10 years, resulting in a shift in energy demand. Developing countries, which are projected to account for nearly 60% of the world's GDP by 2030, are rapidly building infrastructure and economies to meet their growing needs and meet these projections. Cooling, a very energy-intensive process that can account for 20 % to 75% of a building's energy, depending on the building's use. Solar photovoltaic (PV) driven air-conditioning offers a great cost-effective alternative for adoption in both residential and non-residential buildings to offset grid electricity, particularly in countries with high irradiation, such as Botswana. This research paper explores the potential of a grid-connected solar photovoltaic vapor-compression air-conditioning system for the Peter-Smith herbarium at the Okavango Research Institute (ORI) University of Botswana campus in Maun, Botswana. The herbarium plays a critical role in the collection and preservation of botanical data, dating back over 100 years, with pristine collection from the Okavango Delta, a UNESCO world heritage site and serves as a reference and research site. Due to the herbarium’s specific needs, it operates throughout the day and year in an attempt to maintain a constant herbarium temperature of 16°?. The herbarium model studied simulates a variable-air-volume HVAC system with a system rating of 30 kW. Simulation results show that the HVAC system accounts for 68.9% of the building's total electricity at 296 509.60 kWh annually. To offset the grid electricity, a 175.1 kWp nominal power rated PV system requiring 416 modules to match the required power, covering an area of 928 m2 is used to meet the HVAC system annual needs. An economic assessment using PVsyst found that for an installation priced with average solar PV prices in Botswana totalled to be 787 090.00 BWP, with annual operating costs of 30 500 BWP/year. With self-project financing, the project is estimated to have recouped its initial investment within 6.7 years. At an estimated project lifetime of 20 years, the Net Present Value is projected at 1 565 687.00 BWP with a ROI of 198.9%, with 74 070.67 tons of CO2 saved at the end of the project lifetime. This study investigates the performance of the HVAC system to meet the indoor air comfort requirements, the annual PV system performance, and the building model has been simulated using DesignBuilder Software.

Keywords: vapor compression refrigeration, solar cooling, renewable energy, herbarium

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144 Development of Knowledge Discovery Based Interactive Decision Support System on Web Platform for Maternal and Child Health System Strengthening

Authors: Partha Saha, Uttam Kumar Banerjee

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Maternal and Child Healthcare (MCH) has always been regarded as one of the important issues globally. Reduction of maternal and child mortality rates and increase of healthcare service coverage were declared as one of the targets in Millennium Development Goals till 2015 and thereafter as an important component of the Sustainable Development Goals. Over the last decade, worldwide MCH indicators have improved but could not match the expected levels. Progress of both maternal and child mortality rates have been monitored by several researchers. Each of the studies has stated that only less than 26% of low-income and middle income countries (LMICs) were on track to achieve targets as prescribed by MDG4. Average worldwide annual rate of reduction of under-five mortality rate and maternal mortality rate were 2.2% and 1.9% as on 2011 respectively whereas rates should be minimum 4.4% and 5.5% annually to achieve targets. In spite of having proven healthcare interventions for both mothers and children, those could not be scaled up to the required volume due to fragmented health systems, especially in the developing and under-developed countries. In this research, a knowledge discovery based interactive Decision Support System (DSS) has been developed on web platform which would assist healthcare policy makers to develop evidence-based policies. To achieve desirable results in MCH, efficient resource planning is very much required. In maximum LMICs, resources are big constraint. Knowledge, generated through this system, would help healthcare managers to develop strategic resource planning for combatting with issues like huge inequity and less coverage in MCH. This system would help healthcare managers to accomplish following four tasks. Those are a) comprehending region wise conditions of variables related with MCH, b) identifying relationships within variables, c) segmenting regions based on variables status, and d) finding out segment wise key influential variables which have major impact on healthcare indicators. Whole system development process has been divided into three phases. Those were i) identifying contemporary issues related with MCH services and policy making; ii) development of the system; and iii) verification and validation of the system. More than 90 variables under three categories, such as a) educational, social, and economic parameters; b) MCH interventions; and c) health system building blocks have been included into this web-based DSS and five separate modules have been developed under the system. First module has been designed for analysing current healthcare scenario. Second module would help healthcare managers to understand correlations among variables. Third module would reveal frequently-occurring incidents along with different MCH interventions. Fourth module would segment regions based on previously mentioned three categories and in fifth module, segment-wise key influential interventions will be identified. India has been considered as case study area in this research. Data of 601 districts of India has been used for inspecting effectiveness of those developed modules. This system has been developed by importing different statistical and data mining techniques on Web platform. Policy makers would be able to generate different scenarios from the system before drawing any inference, aided by its interactive capability.

Keywords: maternal and child heathcare, decision support systems, data mining techniques, low and middle income countries

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143 Living by the Maramataka: Mahi Maramataka, Indigenous Environmental Knowledge Systems and Wellbeing

Authors: Ayla Hoeta

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The focus of this research is mahi Maramataka, ‘the practices of Maramataka’ as a traditional and evolving knowledge system and its connection to whaanau oranga (wellbeing) and healing. Centering kaupapa Maaori methods and knowledge this research will explore how Maramataka can be used as a tool for oranga and healing for whaanau to engage with different environments aligned with Maramataka flow and optimal time based on the environment. Maramataka is an ancestral lunar environmental knowledge system rooted within korero tuku iho, Maaori creation stories, dating back to the beginning of time. The significance of Maramataka is the ancient environmental knowledge and the connecting energy flow of mauri (life force) between whenua (land), moana (ocean) and rangi (sky). The lunar component of the Maramataka is widely understood and highlights the different phases of the moon. Each moon phase is named with references to puurakau stories and environmental and ecological information. Marama, meaning moon and taka, meaning cycle, is used as a lunar and environmental calendar. There are lunar phases that are optimal for specific activities, such as the Tangaroa phase, a time of abundance and productivity and ocean-based activities like fishing. Other periods in the Maramataka, such as Rakaunui (full moon), connect the highest tides and highest energy of the lunar cycle, ideal for social, physical activity and particularly planting. Other phases like Tamatea are unpredictable whereas Whiro (new moon/s) is reflective, deep and cautious during the darkest nights. Whaanau, particularly in urban settings have become increasingly disconnected from the natural environment, the Maramataka has become a tool that they can connect to which offers an alternative to dominant perspectives of health and is an approach that is uniquely Maaori. In doing so, this research will raise awareness of oranga or lack of oranga, and lived experience of whaanau in Tamaki Makaurau - Aotearoa, on a journey to revival of Maramataka and healing. The research engages Hautu Waka as a methodology using the methods of ancient kaupapa Māori practises based on wayfinding and attunement with the natural environment. Using ancient ways of being, knowing, seeing and doing the Hautu Waka will centre kaupapa Maaori perspectives to process design, reflection and evaluation. The methods of Hautu Waka consists of five interweaving phases, 1) Te Rapunga (the search) in infinite potential, 2) Te Kitenga (the seeing), observations of and attunement to tohu 3) te whainga (the pursuit) and deeply exploring key tohu 4) te whiwhinga (the acquiring), of knowledge and clearer ideas, 5) Te Rawenga (the celebration), reflection and acknowledgement of the journey and achievements. This research is an expansion from my creative practices across whaanau-centred inquiry, to understand the benefits of Maramataka and how it can be embodied and practised in a modern-day context to support oranga and healing. Thus, the goal is to work with kaupapa Maaori methodologies to authenticate as a Maaori practitioner and researcher and allow an authentic indigenous approach to the exploration of Maramataka and through a kaupapa Maaori lens.

Keywords: maramataka (Maaori calendar), tangata (people), taiao (environment), whenua (land), whaanau (family), hautu waka (navigation framework)

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142 Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain Method for Corn and Soybean Price Forecasting in North Carolina Markets

Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

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141 Red Dawn in the Desert: A World-Systems Analysis of the Maritime Silk Road Initiative

Authors: Toufic Sarieddine

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The current debate on the hegemonic impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is of two opposing strands: Resilient and absolute US hegemony on the one hand and various models of multipolar hegemony such as bifurcation on the other. Bifurcation theories illustrate an unprecedented division of hegemonic functions between China and the US, whereby Beijing becomes the world’s economic hegemon, leaving Washington the world’s military hegemon and security guarantor. While consensus points to China being the main driver of unipolarity’s rupturing, the debate among bifurcationists is on the location of the first rupture. In this regard, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has seen increasing Chinese foreign direct investment in recent years while that to other regions has declined, ranking it second in 2018 as part of the financing for the Maritime Silk Road Initiative (MSRI). China has also become the top trade partner of 11 states in the MENA region, as well as its top source of machine imports, surpassing the US and achieving an overall trade surplus almost double that of Washington’s. These are among other features outlined in world-systems analysis (WSA) literature which correspond with the emergence of a new hegemon. WSA is further utilized to gauge other facets of China’s increasing involvement in MENA and assess whether bifurcation is unfolding therein. These features of hegemony include the adoption of China’s modi operandi, economic dominance in production, trade, and finance, military capacity, cultural hegemony in ideology, education, and language, and the promotion of a general interest around which to rally potential peripheries (MENA states in this case). China’s modi operandi has seen some adoption with regards to support against the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, oil bonds denominated in the yuan, and financial institutions such as the Shanghai Gold Exchange enjoying increasing Arab patronage. However, recent elections in Qatar, as well as liberal reforms in Saudi Arabia, demonstrate Washington’s stronger normative influence. Meanwhile, Washington’s economic dominance is challenged by China’s sizable machine exports, increasing overall imports, and widening trade surplus, but retains some clout via dominant arms and transport exports, as well as free-trade deals across the region. Militarily, Washington bests Beijing’s arms exports, has a dominant and well-established presence in the region, and successfully blocked Beijing’s attempt to penetrate through the UAE. Culturally, Beijing enjoys higher favorability in Arab public opinion, and its broadcast networks have found some resonance with Arab audiences. In education, the West remains MENA students’ preferred destination. Further, while Mandarin has become increasingly available in schools across MENA, its usage and availability still lag far behind English. Finally, Beijing’s general interest in infrastructure provision and prioritizing economic development over social justice and democracy provides an avenue for increased incorporation between Beijing and the MENA region. The overall analysis shows solid progress towards bifurcation in MENA.

Keywords: belt and road initiative, hegemony, Middle East and North Africa, world-systems analysis

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