Search results for: sales forecasting of innovations

Authors: Iman Shawky, Mohamed Elsayed

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Every hotel works in the hospitality market tends to have its own merit and character in its products marketing in order to maintain both its brand's identity and image among guests. According to the growth of global competition in the hospitality industry; the concept of competitive advantage is becoming increasingly important in hotels' marketing world as it examines reasons for outweighing hotels in their dimensions of strategic and marketing plans. In fact, Egypt is the land of appeared and submerged secrets as a result of its ancient civilization ongoing explorations. Although underwater antiquities represent ambiguous treasures, they have auspicious future in it, particularly in Alexandria. The study aims at examining to what extent underwater antiquities represent a competitive advantage of four and five-star hotels in Alexandria. For achieving this aim, an exploratory study conducted by currying out the investigation and comparison of the closest and most popular landmarks mentioned on both hotels' official websites and on common used reservations' websites. In addition to that, two different questionnaire forms designed; one for both revenue and sales and marketing hotels' managers while the other for their guests. The results indicate that both official hotels' websites and the most common used reservations' websites totally ignore mentioning underwater antiquities as attractive landmarks surrounding Alexandria hotels. Furthermore, most managers expect that underwater antiquities can furnish distinguished competitive advantage to their hotels. Also, they can help exceeding guests' expectations during their accommodation as long as they included on both official hotels' and reservations' websites as the most surrounding famous landmarks. Moreover, most managers foresee that high awareness of underwater antiquities can enhance the guests' accommodation frequencies and improve the financial performance of their hotels.

Keywords: competitive advantage, financial performance, hotels' websites, underwater antiquities

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Authors: Irsanti Hasyim, Christian Wibisono, Angela Teressia

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Social enterprises, as one of the way of doing business are on the rise and emerging from the innovations of decades of social initiatives. In simple way, social enterprises use the business platform to achieve social and/or environmental objectives whilst simultaneously seeking a financial return. In Indonesia, the number of social enterprises rapidly grows and most of them were using social media as their business platform. Social Media are perceived as tools for creating online communities of users who share interests, activities, and objectives. Many companies view the use of online communities in social media as a profitable marketing tool from which they can derive several benefits. Through social media, consumers share experiences with and suggest ideas to others while developing new relationships within their communities. Therefore, this study intends to identify the benefits that participants in online communities seek and examine the relationships between members’ levels of participation, brand trust, and brand commitment. Using convenience sampling method, 236 fully answered questioner was collected and used as a sample of this research. The sample of this research consisted of member or follower in several social media from selected social enterprise in Indonesia. Data collected in this research were process by using Partial Least Square and came up with the result that functional benefit and monetary benefit, are only two from five benefits that proposed were the only variable that has significant result even though from APC, ARS and AARS outcomes show that the model can be claimed to be significant.

Keywords: brand trust, brand commitment, social enterprise, social media

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Authors: Baker Ssekitto, Ambrose Mbogo

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The study reveals that indeed agriculture employs over 70% of Uganda’s population, of which majority are youth and women. The study further reveals that over 70% of the farmers are smallholder farmers based in rural areas, whose operations are greatly affected by; climate change, weak digital skills, limited access to productivity knowledge along value chains, limited access to quality farm inputs, weak logistics systems, limited access to quality extension services, weak business intelligence, limited access to quality markets among others. It finds that the emerging 4th industrial revolution powered by artificial intelligence, 5G and data science will provide possibilities of addressing some of these challenges. Furthermore, the study finds that despite rapid development of ICT4Agric Innovation, their uptake is constrained by a number of factors including; limited awareness of these innovations, low internet and smart phone penetration especially in rural areas, lack of appropriate digital skills, inappropriate programmes implementation models which are project and donor driven, limited articulation of value addition to various stakeholders among others. Majority of farmers and other value chain actors lacked knowledge and skills to harness the power of ICTs, especially their application of ICTs in monitoring and evaluation on quality of service in the extension system and farm level processes.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, productivity, ICT4agriculture, value chain, logistics

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Authors: Shalini Rankawat, Mansi Rankawat, Rahul Dubey, Mazad Zaveri

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Physiological signals such as electrocardiogram (ECG) and arterial blood pressure (ABP) in the intensive care unit (ICU) are often seriously corrupted by noise, artifacts, and missing data, which lead to errors in the estimation of heart rate (HR) and incidences of false alarm from ICU monitors. Clinical support in ICU requires most reliable heart rate estimation. Cardiac activity, because of its relatively high electrical energy, may introduce artifacts in Electroencephalogram (EEG), Electrooculogram (EOG), and Electromyogram (EMG) recordings. This paper presents a robust heart rate estimation method by detection of R-peaks of ECG artifacts in EEG, EMG & EOG signals, using energy-based function and a novel Signal Quality Index (SQI) assessment technique. SQIs of physiological signals (EEG, EMG, & EOG) were obtained by correlation of nonlinear energy operator (teager energy) of these signals with either ECG or ABP signal. HR is estimated from ECG, ABP, EEG, EMG, and EOG signals from separate Kalman filter based upon individual SQIs. Data fusion of each HR estimate was then performed by weighing each estimate by the Kalman filters’ SQI modified innovations. The fused signal HR estimate is more accurate and robust than any of the individual HR estimate. This method was evaluated on MIMIC II data base of PhysioNet from bedside monitors of ICU patients. The method provides an accurate HR estimate even in the presence of noise and artifacts.

Keywords: ECG, ABP, EEG, EMG, EOG, ECG artifacts, Teager-Kaiser energy, heart rate, signal quality index, Kalman filter, data fusion

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Authors: Achim Kampker, Heiner Hans Heimes, Nemanja Sarovic, Jan-Philip Ganser, Saskia Wessel, Christoph Lienemann

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The electrification of the power train is a fundamental technical transition in the automotive industry and poses a major challenge for established car companies. Providing the traction energy, requiring an ever greater amount of space within the car and having a high share of value-add the lithium-ion battery is a central component of the electric power train and a completely new component to car manufacturers at the same time. Being relatively new to the automotive industry, the current design of the product architecture and production process (including manufacturing and assembling processes) of lithium-ion battery modules do not allow for an easy and cost-efficient disassembly or product design change. Yet these two requirements will increase in importance with rising sales volumes of electric cars in the near future and need to be addressed for the electric car to be competitive with conventional power train systems. This paper focuses on the current product architecture and production process of common automotive battery modules from prismatic lithium-ion battery cells to derive impacts for a remanufacturing concept. The information necessary for this purpose were gathered by literature research, patent inquiries, industry expert interviews and first-hand experiences of the authors. On the basis of these results, the underlying causes for the design´s lack of remanufacturability and flexibility with regards to product design changes are examined. In all, this paper gives an extensive and detailed overview of the state of the art of the product architecture and production process of lithium-ion battery modules from prismatic battery cells, identifies its deficiencies and derives improvement measures.

Keywords: battery module, prismatic lithium-ion battery cell, product architecture, production process, remanufacturing, flexibility

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Authors: Evrim Buyukaslan, Simona Jevsnik, Fatma Kalaoglu

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Simulation of fabrics is more difficult than any other simulation due to complex mechanics of fabrics. Most of the virtual garment simulation software use mass-spring model and incorporate fabric mechanics into simulation models. The accuracy and fidelity of these virtual garment simulation software is a question mark. Drape is a subjective phenomenon and evaluation of drape has been studied since 1950’s. On the other hand, fabric and garment simulation is relatively new. Understanding drape perception of subjects when looking at fabric simulations is critical as virtual try-on becomes more of an issue by enhanced online apparel sales. Projected future of online apparel retailing is that users may view their avatars and try-on the garment on their avatars in the virtual environment. It is a well-known fact that users will not be eager to accept this innovative technology unless it is realistic enough. Therefore, it is essential to understand what users see when they are displaying fabrics in a virtual environment. Are they able to distinguish the differences between various fabrics in virtual environment? The purpose of this study is to investigate human perception when looking at a virtual fabric and determine the most visually noticeable drape parameter. To this end, five different fabrics are mechanically tested, and their drape simulations are generated by commercial garment simulation software (Optitex®). The simulation images are processed by an image analysis software to calculate drape parameters namely; drape coefficient, node severity, and peak angles. A questionnaire is developed to evaluate drape properties subjectively in a virtual environment. Drape simulation images are shown to 27 subjects and asked to rank the samples according to their questioned drape property. The answers are compared to the calculated drape parameters. The results show that subjects are quite sensitive to drape coefficient changes while they are not very sensitive to changes in node dimensions and node distributions.

Keywords: drape simulation, drape evaluation, fabric mechanics, virtual fabric

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Authors: Siddhartha Paul, Debabrata Das

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Closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) management focuses on integrating forward and reverse flow of material as well as information to maximize value creation over the entire life-cycle of a product. Bullwhip effect in supply chain management refers to the phenomenon where a small variation in customers’ demand results in larger variation of orders at the upstream levels of supply chain. Since the quality and quantity of products returned to the collection centers (as a part of reverse logistics process) are uncertain, bullwhip effect is inevitable in CLSC. Therefore, in the present study, first, through an extensive literature survey, we identify all the important factors related to forward as well as reverse supply chain which causes bullwhip effect in CLSC. Second, we develop a system dynamics model to study the interrelationship among the factors and their effect on the performance of overall CLSC. Finally, the results of the simulation study suggest that demand forecasting, lead times, information sharing, inventory and work in progress adjustment rate, supply shortages, batch ordering, price variations, erratic human behavior, parameter correcting, delivery time delays, return rate of used products, manufacturing and remanufacturing capacity constraints are the important factors which have a significant influence on system’s performance, specifically on bullwhip effect in a CLSC.

Keywords: bullwhip effect, closed-loop supply chain, system dynamics, variance ratio

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Authors: Maria Luisa Nozawa Ribeiro, Maria Teresa Miceli Kerbauy

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This paper aims to present the theories of public participation in order to understand the context of the public GMO (Genetic Modified Organisms) policies in Brazil, highlighting the characteristics of its configuration and the dialog with the experts. As a controversy subject, the commercialization of GMO provoked manifestation of some popular and environmental representative groups questioning the decisions of policy makers and experts on the matter. Many aspects and consequences of the plantation and consumption of this crops emerged and the safety of this technology was questioned. Environmentalists, Civil Right's movement, representatives of rural workers, farmers and organics producers, etc. demonstrated their point of view, also sustained by some experts of medical, genetical, environmental, agronomical sciences, etc. fields. Despite this movement, the precautionary principle (risk management), implemented in 1987, suggested precaution facing new technologies and innovations in the sustainable development society. This principle influenced many legislation and regulation on GMO around the world, including Brazil, which became a reference among the world regulatory GMO systems. The Brazilian legislation ensures the citizens participation on GMO discussion, characteristic that was important to establish the connection between the subject and the participation theory. These deliberation spaces materialized in Brazil through the "Public Audiences", which are managed by the National Biosafety Technical Commission (CTNBio), the department responsible for controlling the research, production and commercialization of GMOs in Brazil.

Keywords: public engagement, public participation, science and technology studies, transgenic politics

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Authors: Asim Majeed, Anwar Ul Haq, Ayesha Asim, Mike Lloyd-Williams, Arshad Jamal, Usman Butt

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This study aims to investigate the impact of data leak of M&S customers on digital communities. Modern businesses are using digital communities as an important public relations tool for marketing purposes. This form of communication helps companies to build better relationship with their customers which also act as another source of information. The communication between the customers and the organizations is not regulated so users may post positive and negative comments. There are new platforms being developed on a daily basis and it is very crucial for the businesses to not only get themselves familiar with those but also know how to reach their existing and perspective consumers. The driving force of marketing and communication in modern businesses is the digital communities and these are continuously increasing and developing. This phenomenon is changing the way marketing is conducted. The current research has discussed the implications on M&S business performance since the data was exploited on digital communities; users contacted M&S and raised the security concerns. M&S closed down its website for few hours to try to resolve the issue. The next day M&S made a public apology about this incidence. This information was proliferated on various digital communities and it has impacted negatively on M&S brand name, sales and customers. The content analysis approach is being used to collect qualitative data from 100 digital bloggers including social media communities such as Facebook and Twitter. The results and finding provide useful new insights into the nature and form of security concerns of digital users. Findings have theoretical and practical implications. This research will showcase a large corporation utilizing various digital community platforms and can serve as a model for future organizations.

Keywords: Digital, communities, performance, dissemination, implications, data, exploitation

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Authors: Mehrzad Soltani, Pegah Rezaei

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In the endeavor to construct cities that are not only thriving but also environmentally responsible, effective urban planning and architectural design assume paramount significance. The focal point of this pursuit is the harnessing of urban renewable energy. By embracing sustainable practices such as the integration of solar panels into the urban landscape and the establishment of smart grids, cities are poised to confront head-on the dual challenge of surging energy demands and pressing environmental concerns. Urban renewable energy solutions offer a multifaceted approach to these issues. Firstly, they usher in a clean and sustainable source of energy, reducing the cities' ecological footprint while ensuring a continuous power supply. This transition to eco-friendly energy is also intrinsically linked to enhanced spatial utilization, thereby streamlining the efficiency of urban areas. Moreover, it spurs the adoption of sustainable transportation alternatives, diminishing the reliance on fossil fuels and mitigating air pollution. However, the significance of integrating renewable energy solutions transcends the realm of urban sustainability. It embodies a holistic approach towards creating cities that harmoniously coexist with the natural environment while catering to the needs and aspirations of their inhabitants. In essence, prioritizing sustainability in urban planning and architectural design has evolved from a choice to a necessity, one that not only safeguards the cities' well-being but also fosters a better quality of life for their residents. Thus, it is imperative that we acknowledge the transformative potential of these innovations as we pave the way towards the cities of the future.

Keywords: sustainability, smart grids, solar panel, urban planning, environmental concerns

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Authors: Kahlil Fredrick Cui, Marissa Pastor

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Earthquakes are complex phenomena, exhibiting complex correlations in space, time, and magnitude. Recently, the concept of complex networks has been used to shed light on the statistical and dynamical characteristics of regional seismicity. In this work, we study the relationships and interactions of seismic regions in Chile, Japan, and the Philippines through weighted and directed complex network analysis. Geographical areas are digitized into cells of fixed dimensions which in turn become the nodes of the network when an earthquake has occurred therein. Nodes are linked if a correlation exists between them as determined and measured by a correlation metric. The networks are found to be scale-free, exhibiting power-law behavior in the distributions of their different centrality measures: the in- and out-degree and the in- and out-strength. The evidence is also found of preferential interaction between seismically active regions through their degree-degree correlations suggesting that seismicity is dictated by the activity of a few active regions. The importance of a seismic region to the overall seismicity is measured using a generalized centrality metric taken to be an indicator of its activity or passivity. The spatial distribution of earthquake activity indicates the areas where strong earthquakes have occurred in the past while the passivity distribution points toward the likely locations an earthquake would occur whenever another one happens elsewhere. Finally, we propose a method that would project the location of the next possible earthquake using the generalized centralities coupled with correlations calculated between the latest earthquakes and a geographical point in the future.

Keywords: complex networks, correlations, earthquake, hazard assessment

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Authors: Atia Alam

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Growing liberalisation and intense market competition increase firm’s risk exposure and induce corporations to use derivatives extensively as a risk management instrument, which results in decrease in firm’s risk, and increase in value. Present study contributes towards existing literature by providing an in-depth analysis regarding the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value by using panel data models and seemingly unrelated regression technique. New evidence is established in current literature by dividing the sample data based on firm’s Exchange Rate (ER) and Interest Rate (IR) exposure. Analysis is performed for the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value and its variation with respect to the ER and IR exposure. Sample data consists of 166 Pakistani firms listed on Pakistan stock exchange for the period of 2004-2010. Results show that extensive usage of derivative instruments significantly increases firm value and reduces firm’s risk. Furthermore, comprehensive analysis depicts that Pakistani corporations having higher exchange rate exposure, with respect to foreign sales, and higher interest rate exposure, on the basis of industry adjusted leverage, have higher firm value and lower risk. Findings from seemingly unrelated regression also provide robustness to results obtained through panel data analysis. Study also highlights the role of derivative usage as a risk management instrument in high and low ER and IR risk and helps practitioners in understanding how value increasing effect of extent of derivative usage varies with the intensity of firm’s risk exposure.

Keywords: extent of derivative usage, firm value, risk, Pakistan, non-financial firms

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Authors: Bahram Khan, Anderson Rocha Ramos, Rui R. Paulo, Fernando J. Velez

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With the growing demand for a new blend of applications, the users dependency on the internet is increasing day by day. Mobile internet users are giving more attention to their own experiences, especially in terms of communication reliability, high data rates and service stability on move. This increase in the demand is causing saturation of existing radio frequency bands. To address these challenges, researchers are investigating the best approaches, Carrier Aggregation (CA) is one of the newest innovations, which seems to fulfill the demands of the future spectrum, also CA is one the most important feature for Long Term Evolution - Advanced (LTE-Advanced). For this purpose to get the upcoming International Mobile Telecommunication Advanced (IMT-Advanced) mobile requirements (1 Gb/s peak data rate), the CA scheme is presented by 3GPP, which would sustain a high data rate using widespread frequency bandwidth up to 100 MHz. Technical issues such as aggregation structure, its implementations, deployment scenarios, control signal techniques, and challenges for CA technique in LTE-Advanced, with consideration of backward compatibility, are highlighted in this paper. Also, performance evaluation in macro-cellular scenarios through a simulation approach is presented, which shows the benefits of applying CA, low-complexity multi-band schedulers in service quality, system capacity enhancement and concluded that enhanced multi-band scheduler is less complex than the general multi-band scheduler, which performs better for a cell radius longer than 1800 m (and a PLR threshold of 2%).

Keywords: component carrier, carrier aggregation, LTE-advanced, scheduling

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Authors: Tania Vazquez, Aida Huerta

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Way to get our food has changed over the time, and it is a daily necessity. Nowadays we found a lot of problems involved with the economy, environment, and society, which affect the agrifood system. Some problems as construction of big cities and growing population have been increasing demand food directly. Due to the countryside are far away from the city, another alternative systems have come from, such as Urban Agriculture (UA). UA system offers food production into the cities, products with characteristics as quality, healthy and good prices, close to the customers, recycling culture and the promote environmental education. Last years in Mexico City urban gardens have taken strongly in various politic delegations. There are establishment’s public and private initiatives. Moreover, these places have had different issues like low income, many activities, few workers, low production, lack of training and advice, devaluation of your work and low sales, all these shortcomings generate the devaluation of their work. The aim of this paper is to evaluate a business plan in Mexico City´s urban gardens that contribute to ensuring economic, environmental and social sustainability; to adjust business plan for this places so that they reach viability over time. As a part of soft systems methodology developed of Peter Checkland, we interviewed owners of urban gardens and we found that recurring problem was lack planning manager activities and a master plan about their business. We evaluate the business plan based on “Ten principles in sustainable food value chain development” proposed for Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). With this study was possible measure, understand and improve performance of business plan in the three pillars of the sustainability in addition to this it allowed us to fit in with the needs of urban gardens.

Keywords: business plan, Mexico City, urban agriculture, urban gardens

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Authors: Pardhasaradhi Gudla, Imanual A.

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The generated electrical power in offshore needs to be transmitted to grid which is located in onshore by using subsea cables. Long subsea cables produce reactive power, which should be compensated in order to limit transmission losses, to optimize the transmission capacity, and to keep the grid voltage within the safe operational limits. Installation cost of wind farm includes the structure design cost and electrical system cost. India has targeted to achieve 175GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022 including offshore wind power generation. Due to sea depth is more in India, the installation cost will be further high when compared to European countries where offshore wind energy is already generating successfully. So innovations are required to reduce the offshore wind power project cost. This paper presents the optimized techniques to reduce the installation cost of offshore wind firm with respect to electrical transmission systems. This technical paper provides the techniques for increasing the current carrying capacity of subsea cable by decreasing the reactive power generation (capacitance effect) of the subsea cable. There are many methods for reactive power compensation in wind power plants so far in execution. The main reason for the need of reactive power compensation is capacitance effect of subsea cable. So if we diminish the cable capacitance of cable then the requirement of the reactive power compensation will be reduced or optimized by avoiding the intermediate substation at midpoint of the transmission network.

Keywords: offshore wind power, optimized techniques, power system, sub sea cable

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Authors: Özgür Öztürk, Cumhur Sipahi, Hande Yeşil

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Implant retained restorations commonly consist of a metal-framework veneered with ceramic or composite facings. The increasing and expanding use of indirect resin composites in dentistry is a result of innovations in materials and processing techniques. Of special interest to the implant restorative field is the possibility that composites present significantly lower peak vertical and transverse forces transmitted at the peri-implant level compared to metal-ceramic supra structures in implant-supported restorations. A 43-year-old male patient referred to the department of prosthodontics for an implant retained fixed prosthesis. The clinical and radiographic examination of the patient demonstrated the presence of an implant in the right mandibular first molar tooth region. A considerable amount of marginal bone loss around the implant was detected in radiographic examinations combined with a remarkable peri-implant soft tissue deficiency. To minimize the chewing loads transmitted to the implant-bone interface it was decided to fabricate an indirect composite resin veneered single metal crown over a screw-retained abutment. At the end of the treatment, the functional and aesthetic deficiencies were fully compensated. After a 6 months clinical and radiographic follow-up period the not any additional pathologic invasion was detected in the implant-bone interface and implant retained restoration did not reveal any vehement complication.

Keywords: dental implant, fixed partial dentures, indirect composite resin, peri-implant defects

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Authors: Nicolás Clavijo Buriticá, Laura Viviana Triana Sanchez

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This research develops a productive context associated with the aquaculture industry in northern Tolima-Colombia, specifically in the town of Lerida. Strategic aspects of chain of fish Production-Distribution, especially those related to supply network design of an association devoted to cultivating, farming, processing and marketing of fish are addressed. This research is addressed from a special approach of Supply Chain Management (SCM) which guides management objectives to the system sustainability; this approach is called Sustainable Supply Chain Management (SSCM). The network design of fish production-distribution system is obtained for the case study by two mathematical programming models that aims to maximize the economic benefits of the chain and minimize total supply chain costs, taking into account restrictions to protect the environment and its implications on system productivity. The results of the mathematical models validated in the productive situation of the partnership under study, called Asopiscinorte shows the variation in the number of open or closed locations in the supply network that determines the final network configuration. This proposed result generates for the case study an increase of 31.5% in the partial productivity of storage and processing, in addition to possible favorable long-term implications, such as attending an agile or not a consumer area, increase or not the level of sales in several areas, to meet in quantity, time and cost of work in progress and finished goods to various actors in the chain.

Keywords: Sustainable Supply Chain, mathematical programming, aquaculture industry, Supply Chain Design, Supply Chain Configuration

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Authors: Rebecca Oakes

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In the New Zealand public health system, work has been taking place to use electronic systems to convey data from the ‘floor to the board’ that makes patient needs, and therefore nursing work, visible. For nurses, these developments in health information technology puts us in a very new and exciting position of being able to articulate the work of nursing through a language understood at all levels of an organisation, the language of acuity. Nurses increasingly have a considerable stake-hold in patient acuity data. Patient acuity systems, when used well, can assist greatly in demonstrating how much work is required, the type of work, and when it will be required. The New Zealand Safe Staffing Unit is supporting New Zealand nurses to create a culture of shared governance, where nursing data is informing policies, staffing methodologies and forecasting within their organisations. Assisting organisations to understand their acuity data, strengthening user confidence in using electronic patient acuity systems, and ensuring nursing and midwifery workload is accurately reflected is critical to the success of the safe staffing programme. Nurses and midwives have the capacity via an acuity tool to become key informers of organisational planning. Quality patient care, best use of health resources and a quality work environment are essential components of a safe, resilient and well resourced organisation. Nurses are the key informers of this information. In New Zealand a national level approach is paving the way for significant changes to the understanding and use of patient acuity and nursing workload information.

Keywords: nursing workload, patient acuity, safe staffing, New Zealand

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Authors: Aparna Radhakrishnan, Jancy Gupta, R. Dileepkumar

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This paper aims at assessing the Socio Economic Vulnerability (SEV) of dairy farmers to Climate Variability and Change (CVC) in 3 states of Western Ghat region in India. For this purpose, a composite SEV index has been developed on the basis of functional relationships amongst sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity using 30 indicators related to dairy farming underlying the principles of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Fussel framework for nomenclature of vulnerable situation. Household level data were collected through Participatory Rural Appraisal and personal interviews of 540 dairy farmers of nine taluks, three each from a district selected from Kerala, Karnataka and Maharashtra, complemented by thirty years of gridded weather data. The data were normalized and then combined into three indices for sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity, which were then averaged with weights given using principal component analysis, to obtain the overall SEV index. Results indicated that the taluks of Western Ghats are vulnerable to CVC. The dairy farmers of Pulpally taluka were most vulnerable having the SEV score +1.24 and 42.66% farmers under high-level vulnerability category. Even though the taluks are geographically closer, there is wide variation in SEV components. Policies for incentivizing the ‘climate risk adaptation’ costs for small and marginal farmers and livelihood infrastructure for mitigating risks and promoting grass root level innovations are necessary to sustain dairy farming of the region.

Keywords: climate change, dairy, vulnerability, livelihoods, adaptation strategies

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Authors: Anju Batta Sehgal

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Climate change is a major challenge in terms of agriculture, food security and rural livelihood for thousands of people especially the poor in Himachal, which falls in North-Western Himalayas. Agriculture contributes over 45 per cent to net state domestic product. It is the main source of income and employment. Over 93 per cent of population is dependent on agriculture which provides direct employment to 71 percent of its people. Area of operation holding is about 9,79 lakh hectares owned by 9.14 lakh farmers. About 80 per cent area is rain-fed and farmers depend on weather gods for rains. Region is a home of diverse ethnic communities having enormous socio-economic and cultural diversities, gifted with range of farming systems and rich resource wealth, including biodiversity, hot spots and ecosystems sustaining millions of people living in the region. But growing demands of ecosystem goods and services are posing threats to natural resources. Climate change is already making adverse impact on the indigenous people. The rural populace is directly dependent for all its food, shelter and other needs on the climate. Our aim should be to shift the focus to indigenous people as primary actors in terms of global climate change monitoring, adaptations and innovations. Objective of this paper is to identify the climate change related threats and vulnerabilities associated with agriculture as a sector and agriculture as people’s livelihood. Broadly it analyses the connections between the nature and rural consumers the ethnic groups.

Keywords: climate change, agriculture, indigenous people, Himachal Pradesh

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Authors: Oyediran Wasiu Oyeleke

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Melon is a popular economic cucurbit in Southwest, Nigeria. In recent time, many young farmers are shifting from melon to watermelon farming due to poor yield and low monetary returns. Hence, this study was carried out to assess the decline in melon yield and its contribution to young farmers’ diversification into watermelon farming in Oyo state, Nigeria. Purposive sampling technique was used in selecting 75 respondents from five villages in Ibarapa block of the Oyo State Agricultural Development Project (ADP). Data collected were analyzed using descriptive statistics and Pearson Product Moment Correlation (PPMC). Results show that majority of the respondents (77.3%) were between 31-40 years of age and 46.70% had secondary school education. Most of the respondents (80%) cultivated more than 3 ha of land for watermelon. Majority of the respondents (74.7%) intercropped melon with other crops while watermelon was cultivated as a sole crop. None of the respondents either grew improved melon seeds (certified seeds) or applied fertilizers but all respondents cultivated treated watermelon seeds, applied fertilizers, and agro-chemicals. The average yields of melon fell from 376.53kg/ha in 2009 to 280.70kg/ha in 2011. However, the respondents were shifting into watermelon production because of available quality seeds and its early maturity, easy harvest, and high sales. There was a significant relationship between melon output and young farmers’ diversification to watermelon in the study area at p < 0.05. The study concluded that decline in the melon yield discouraged youth to continue melon farming in the study area. It is hereby recommended that certified melon seeds should be made available while extension service providers should provide training support for the young farmers in order to reposition and boost melon production in the study area.

Keywords: decline, melon yield, contribution, watermelon, diversification, young farmers

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Authors: Ada Garus

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This paper presents the outcomes of the sustainability assessment of food delivery with a last-mile delivery service introduced in a real-world case study. The methodology used in the sustainability assessment integrates multi-criteria decision-making analysis, sustainability pillars, and scenario analysis to best reflect the conflicting needs of stakeholders involved in the last mile delivery system. The case study provides an application of the framework to the food delivery system of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission where three alternative solutions were analyzed I) the existent state in which individuals frequent the local cantine or pick up their food, using their preferred mode of transport II) the hypothetical scenario in which individuals can only order their food using the delivery droid system III) a scenario in which the food delivery droid based system is introduced as a supplement to the current system. The environmental indices are calculated using a simulation study in which decision regarding the food delivery is predicted using a multinomial logit model. The vehicle dynamics model is used to predict the fuel consumption of the regular combustion engines vehicles used by the cantine goers and the electricity consumption of the droid. The sustainability assessment allows for the evaluation of the economic, environmental, and social aspects of food delivery, making it an apt input for policymakers. Moreover, the assessment is one of the first studies to investigate automated delivery droids, which could become a frequent addition to the urban landscape in the near future.

Keywords: innovations in transportation technologies, behavioural change and mobility, urban freight logistics, innovative transportation systems

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Authors: Alireza Ansariyar, Safieh Laaly

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Over the last decades, the vehicle industry has shown increased interest in integrating autonomous, connected, and electrical technologies in vehicle design with the primary hope of improving mobility and road safety while reducing transportation’s environmental impact. Using the State of Maryland (M.D.) in the United States as a pilot study, this research investigates CAVs’ fuel consumption and air pollutants (C.O., PM, and NOx) and utilizes meaningful linear regression models to predict CAV’s environmental effects. Maryland transportation network was simulated in VISUM software, and data on a set of variables were collected through a comprehensive survey. The number of pollutants and fuel consumption were obtained for the time interval 2010 to 2021 from the macro simulation. Eventually, four linear regression models were proposed to predict the amount of C.O., NOx, PM pollutants, and fuel consumption in the future. The results highlighted that CAVs’ pollutants and fuel consumption have a significant correlation with the income, age, and race of the CAV customers. Furthermore, the reliability of four statistical models was compared with the reliability of macro simulation model outputs in the year 2030. The error of three pollutants and fuel consumption was obtained at less than 9% by statistical models in SPSS. This study is expected to assist researchers and policymakers with planning decisions to reduce CAV environmental impacts in M.D.

Keywords: connected and autonomous vehicles, statistical model, environmental effects, pollutants and fuel consumption, VISUM, linear regression models

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Authors: B. Elshafei, X. Mao

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The demand for renewable energy is significantly increasing, major investments are being supplied to the wind power generation industry as a leading source of clean energy. The wind energy sector is entirely dependable and driven by the prediction of wind speed, which by the nature of wind is very stochastic and widely random. This s0tudy employs deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression, used to predict wind speeds for medium term time horizons. Data of the RUNE experiment in the west coast of Denmark were provided by the Technical University of Denmark, which represent the wind speed across the study area from the period between December 2015 and March 2016. The study aims to investigate the effect of pre-processing the data by denoising the signal using empirical wavelet transform (EWT) and engaging the vector components of wind speed to increase the number of input data layers for data fusion using deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression (GPR). The outcomes were compared using root mean square error (RMSE) and the results demonstrated a significant increase in the accuracy of predictions which demonstrated that using vector components of the wind speed as additional predictors exhibits more accurate predictions than strategies that ignore them, reflecting the importance of the inclusion of all sub data and pre-processing signals for wind speed forecasting models.

Keywords: data fusion, Gaussian process regression, signal denoise, temporal extrapolation

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Authors: Elsayed Amer, Tarek Essam, Abdullah Hella, Mohammed Al-Ajmi

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Hydrocarbon production decline in mature gas fields is inevitable, and mitigating these circumstances is essential to ensure a longer production period. Production decline is not only influenced by reservoir pressure and wellbore integrity; however, associated liquids in the reservoir rock have a considerable impact on the production process. The associated liquid may result in liquid loading, near wellbore damage, condensate banking, fine sand migration, and wellhead pressure depletion. Consequently, the producing well will suffocate, and the liquid column will seize the well from flowing. A common solution in such circumstances is reducing the surface pressure by opening the well to the atmospheric pressure and flaring the produced liquids. This practice may not be applicable to many cases since the atmospheric pressure is not low enough to create a sufficient driving force to flow the well. In addition, flaring the produced hydrocarbon is solving the issue on account of the environment, which is against the world's efforts to mitigate the impact of climate change. This paper presents a novel approach and a case study that utilizes a multi-phase mobile wellhead gas compression unit (MMWGC) to reduce surface pressure to the sub-atmospheric level and transfer the produced hydrocarbons to the sales line. As a result, the liquid column will unload in a zero-flaring manner, and the life of the producing well will extend considerably. The MMWGC unit was able to successfully kick off a dead well to produce up to 10 MMSCFD after reducing the surface pressure for 3 hours. Applying such novelty on a broader scale will not only extend the life of the producing wells yet will also provide a zero-flaring, economically and environmentally preferred solution.

Keywords: petroleum engineering, zero-flaring, liquid loading, well revival

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: J. P. Panda, K. Sasmal, H. V. Warrior

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Eddy viscosity models in turbulence modeling can be mainly classified as linear and nonlinear models. Linear formulations are simple and require less computational resources but have the disadvantage that they cannot predict actual flow pattern in complex geophysical flows where streamline curvature and swirling motion are predominant. A constitutive equation of Reynolds stress anisotropy is adopted for the formulation of eddy viscosity including all the possible higher order terms quadratic in the mean velocity gradients, and a simplified model is developed for actual oceanic flows where only the vertical velocity gradients are important. The new model is incorporated into the one dimensional General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). Two realistic oceanic test cases (OWS Papa and FLEX' 76) have been investigated. The new model predictions match well with the observational data and are better in comparison to the predictions of the two equation k-epsilon model. The proposed model can be easily incorporated in the three dimensional Princeton Ocean Model (POM) to simulate a wide range of oceanic processes. Practically, this model can be implemented in the coastal regions where trasverse shear induces higher vorticity, and for prediction of flow in estuaries and lakes, where depth is comparatively less. The model predictions of marine turbulence and other related data (e.g. Sea surface temperature, Surface heat flux and vertical temperature profile) can be utilized in short term ocean and climate forecasting and warning systems.

Keywords: Eddy viscosity, turbulence modeling, GOTM, CFD

Procedia PDF Downloads 181

Authors: N. R. Badurally Adam, S. R. Monebhurrun, M. Z. Dauhoo, A. Khoodaruth

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Transport energy demand is vital for the economic growth of any country. Globalisation and better standard of living plays an important role in transport energy demand. Recently, transport energy demand in Mauritius has increased significantly, thus leading to an abuse of natural resources and thereby contributing to global warming. Forecasting the transport energy demand is therefore important for controlling and managing the demand. In this paper, we develop a model to predict the transport energy demand. The model developed is based on a system of five stochastic differential equations (SDEs) consisting of five endogenous variables: fuel price, population, gross domestic product (GDP), number of vehicles and transport energy demand and three exogenous parameters: crude birth rate, crude death rate and labour force. An interval of seven years is used to avoid any falsification of result since Mauritius is a developing country. Data available for Mauritius from year 2003 up to 2009 are used to obtain the values of design variables by applying genetic algorithm. The model is verified and validated for 2010 to 2012 by substituting the values of coefficients obtained by GA in the model and using particle swarm optimisation (PSO) to predict the values of the exogenous parameters. This model will help to control the transport energy demand in Mauritius which will in turn foster Mauritius towards a pollution-free country and decrease our dependence on fossil fuels.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, modeling, particle swarm optimization, stochastic differential equations, transport energy demand

Procedia PDF Downloads 355

Authors: Ali Kazemi

Abstract:

Those within the volatile and interconnected international economic markets, appropriately predicting market trends, hold substantial fees for traders and financial establishments. Traditional device mastering strategies have made full-size strides in forecasting marketplace movements; however, monetary data's complicated and networked nature calls for extra sophisticated processes. This observation offers a groundbreaking method for monetary marketplace prediction that leverages the synergistic capability of Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our suggested algorithm is meticulously designed to forecast the traits of inventory market indices and cryptocurrency costs, utilizing a comprehensive dataset spanning from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2023. This era, marked by sizable volatility and transformation in financial markets, affords a solid basis for schooling and checking out our predictive version. Our algorithm integrates diverse facts to construct a dynamic economic graph that correctly reflects market intricacies. We meticulously collect opening, closing, and high and low costs daily for key inventory marketplace indices (e.g., S&P 500, NASDAQ) and widespread cryptocurrencies (e.g., Bitcoin, Ethereum), ensuring a holistic view of marketplace traits. Daily trading volumes are also incorporated to seize marketplace pastime and liquidity, providing critical insights into the market's shopping for and selling dynamics. Furthermore, recognizing the profound influence of the monetary surroundings on financial markets, we integrate critical macroeconomic signs with hobby fees, inflation rates, GDP increase, and unemployment costs into our model. Our GCN algorithm is adept at learning the relational patterns amongst specific financial devices represented as nodes in a comprehensive market graph. Edges in this graph encapsulate the relationships based totally on co-movement styles and sentiment correlations, enabling our version to grasp the complicated community of influences governing marketplace moves. Complementing this, our LSTM algorithm is trained on sequences of the spatial-temporal illustration discovered through the GCN, enriched with historic fee and extent records. This lets the LSTM seize and expect temporal marketplace developments accurately. Inside the complete assessment of our GCN-LSTM algorithm across the inventory marketplace and cryptocurrency datasets, the version confirmed advanced predictive accuracy and profitability compared to conventional and opportunity machine learning to know benchmarks. Specifically, the model performed a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.85%, indicating high precision in predicting day-by-day charge movements. The RMSE was recorded at 1.2%, underscoring the model's effectiveness in minimizing tremendous prediction mistakes, which is vital in volatile markets. Furthermore, when assessing the model's predictive performance on directional market movements, it achieved an accuracy rate of 78%, significantly outperforming the benchmark models, averaging an accuracy of 65%. This high degree of accuracy is instrumental for techniques that predict the course of price moves. This study showcases the efficacy of mixing graph-based totally and sequential deep learning knowledge in economic marketplace prediction and highlights the fee of a comprehensive, records-pushed evaluation framework. Our findings promise to revolutionize investment techniques and hazard management practices, offering investors and economic analysts a powerful device to navigate the complexities of cutting-edge economic markets.

Keywords: financial market prediction, graph convolutional networks (GCNs), long short-term memory (LSTM), cryptocurrency forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 35

Authors: Youssef R. Hassan, Mohamed S. Hasanin, Reda M. Abdelhameed

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Recently, innovations in packaging security features become more important to see the originality of packaging in industrial application. Luminescent 3d printing materials have been a promising property which can provides a unique opportunity for the design and application of 3D printing. Lack emission of terbium ions, as a source of green emission, in salt form prevent its uses in industrial applications, so searching about stable and highly emitter material become essential. Nowadays, metal organic frameworks (MOFs) play an important role in designing light emitter material. In this work, fluorescent high density polyethylene (FHDPE) composite filament with Tb-benzene 1,3,5-tricarboxylate (Tb-BTC) MOFs for 3D printing have been successfully developed.HDPE pellets were mixed with Tb-BTC and melting extrustion with single screw extruders. It was found that Tb-BTCuniformly dispersed in the HDPE matrix and significantly increased the crystallinity of PE, which not only maintained the good thermal property but also improved the mechanical properties of Tb-BTC@HDPE composites. Notably, the composite filaments emitted ultra-bright green light under UV lamp, and the fluorescence intensity increased as the content of Tb-BTC increased. Finally, several brightly luminescent exquisite articles could be manufactured by fused deposition modeling (FDM) 3D printer with these new fluorescent filaments. In this context, the development of novel fluorescent Tb-BTC@HDPE composites was combined with 3D printing technology to amplified the packaging Security Features.

Keywords: 3D printing, fluorescent, packaging, security

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: Lindiwe Ngcobo

Abstract:

The aim of the study is to describe and understand the benefits and costs of having biogas digesters at both household and society level. On a household level, the purpose is to understand how rural households benefit from the biogas digesters, for example, by converting animal and human waste through biogas digesters, and at what costs the benefits are realized. At a societal level, the purpose is to understand the costs and benefits of biogas digesters relative to the situation of rural communities who do not have flush toilets and have no appropriate waste disposal services while they incur electricity costs. Multiple regression analysis was used to determine the effect of biogas digesters on electricity availability and waste management. The results showed that beneficiaries spent less on electricity using household waste, and also waste disposal costs were eliminated from household expenses. A move to biogas energy production can be beneficial to rural households. It is economically and environmentally friendly. Small-scale farmers need to be introduced to agricultural innovations that can assist them in producing nutritious crops at a low cost. This can be a good opportunity to start an agribusiness that focuses on organic crops. Extensions and training institutions have to play a part in supporting households to develop entrepreneurial skills. Cost-benefit analysis showed that the benefits of biogas exceed the costs of the biogas projects. This implies that this technology should be promoted in rural households. Government financial incentives must be put in place to motivate a generation of organic Agri-prenuers.

Keywords: Agri-prenuers, biogas digester, biogas energy, disposal costs

Procedia PDF Downloads 116