Search results for: trade flows
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1714

Search results for: trade flows

844 Aggregate Fluctuations and the Global Network of Input-Output Linkages

Authors: Alexander Hempfing

Abstract:

The desire to understand business cycle fluctuations, trade interdependencies and co-movement has a long tradition in economic thinking. From input-output economics to business cycle theory, researchers aimed to find appropriate answers from an empirical as well as a theoretical perspective. This paper empirically analyses how the production structure of the global economy and several states developed over time, what their distributional properties are and if there are network specific metrics that allow identifying structurally important nodes, on a global, national and sectoral scale. For this, the World Input-Output Database was used, and different statistical methods were applied. Empirical evidence is provided that the importance of the Eastern hemisphere in the global production network has increased significantly between 2000 and 2014. Moreover, it was possible to show that the sectoral eigenvector centrality indices on a global level are power-law distributed, providing evidence that specific national sectors exist which are more critical to the world economy than others while serving as a hub within the global production network. However, further findings suggest, that global production cannot be characterized as a scale-free network.

Keywords: economic integration, industrial organization, input-output economics, network economics, production networks

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843 Forecasting the Fluctuation of Currency Exchange Rate Using Random Forest

Authors: Lule Basha, Eralda Gjika

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The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable in one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity, and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021, and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables on the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of the Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.

Keywords: exchange rate, random forest, time series, machine learning, prediction

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842 Effects of Soil Erosion on Vegetation Development

Authors: Josephine Wanja Nyatia

Abstract:

The relationship between vegetation and soil erosion deserves attention due to its scientific importance and practical applications. A great deal of information is available about the mechanisms and benefits of vegetation in the control of soil erosion, but the effects of soil erosion on vegetation development and succession is poorly documented. Research shows that soil erosion is the most important driving force for the degradation of upland and mountain ecosystems. Soil erosion interferes with the process of plant community development and vegetation succession, commencing with seed formation and impacting throughout the whole growth phase and affecting seed availability, dispersal, germination and establishment, plant community structure and spatial distribution. There have been almost no studies on the effects of soil erosion on seed development and availability, of surface flows on seed movement and redistribution, and their influences on soil seed bank and on vegetation establishment and distribution. However, these effects may be the main cause of low vegetation cover in regions of high soil erosion activity, and these issues need to be investigated. Moreover, soil erosion is not only a negative influence on vegetation succession and restoration but also a driving force of plant adaptation and evolution. Consequently, we need to study the effects of soil erosion on ecological processes and on development and regulation of vegetation succession from the points of view of pedology and vegetation, plant and seed ecology, and to establish an integrated theory and technology for deriving practical solutions to soil erosion problems

Keywords: soil erosion, vegetation, development, seed availability

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841 Comparative Analysis of Effect of Capital Structure to Profitability in Manufacturing Sector in Indonesia and Malaysia in 2009 - 2014

Authors: Hatane Semuel, Hartmann H. Ngono, Sautma R. Basana

Abstract:

The effect of capital structure on profitability is often debated by many financial investigators. The application of the trade-off theory and pecking order theory to analyze this relationship may generate different views. Each company has its own strategies to achieve its objectives and the external environment, such as state policy has a broad impact on the relationship with the capital structure of the company's profitability. Malaysia is the country closest to Indonesia that had a similar growth rate of GDP and industrial production with Indonesia, but Malaysia has lower inflation rate than Indonesia. This study was conducted to compare the performance of manufacturing sector between two countries when entering the era of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The samples for this study were 69 companies in Indonesia and 242 companies in Malaysia that engaged in manufacturing sector. The study uses panel data analysis. The study found that the capital structure have positive effect on profitability of manufacturing company in Indonesia, and it turns to negative effect on manufacturing companies in Malaysia. The results also showed that there are significant differences in short-term debt towards profitability of manufacturing companies in the two countries Indonesia and Malaysia.

Keywords: capital structure, Indonesia, Malaysia, manufacturing, profitability

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840 Enhancing Throughput for Wireless Multihop Networks

Authors: K. Kalaiarasan, B. Pandeeswari, A. Arockia John Francis

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Wireless, Multi-hop networks consist of one or more intermediate nodes along the path that receive and forward packets via wireless links. The backpressure algorithm provides throughput optimal routing and scheduling decisions for multi-hop networks with dynamic traffic. Xpress, a cross-layer backpressure architecture was designed to reach the capacity of wireless multi-hop networks and it provides well coordination between layers of network by turning a mesh network into a wireless switch. Transmission over the network is scheduled using a throughput-optimal backpressure algorithm. But this architecture operates much below their capacity due to out-of-order packet delivery and variable packet size. In this paper, we present Xpress-T, a throughput optimal backpressure architecture with TCP support designed to reach maximum throughput of wireless multi-hop networks. Xpress-T operates at the IP layer, and therefore any transport protocol, including TCP, can run on top of Xpress-T. The proposed design not only avoids bottlenecks but also handles out-of-order packet delivery and variable packet size, optimally load-balances traffic across them when needed, improving fairness among competing flows. Our simulation results shows that Xpress-T gives 65% more throughput than Xpress.

Keywords: backpressure scheduling and routing, TCP, congestion control, wireless multihop network

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839 The Effect of Supplementary Cementitious Materials on Fresh and Hardened Properties of Self-Compacting Concretes

Authors: Akram Salah Eddine Belaidi, Said Kenai, El-Hadj Kadri, Benchaâ Benabed, Hamza Soualhi

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Self-compacting concrete (SCC) was developed in the middle of the 1980’s in Japan. SCC flows alone under its dead weight and consolidates itself without any entry of additional compaction energy and without segregation. As an integral part of a SCC, self-compacting mortars (SCM) may serve as a basis for the mix design of concrete since the measurement of the rheological properties of SCCs. This paper discusses the effect of using natural pozzolana (PZ) and marble powder (MP) in two alternative systems ratios PZ/MP = 1 and 1/3 of the performance of the SCC. A total of 11 SCC’s were prepared having a constant water-binder (w/b) ratio of 0.40 and total cementitious materials content of 475 kg/m3. Then, the fresh properties of the mortars were tested for mini-slump flow diameter and mini-V-funnel flow time for SCMs and Slumps flow test, L-Box height ratio, V-Funnel flow time and sieve stability for SCC. Moreover, the development in the compressive strength was determined at 3, 7, 28, 56, and 90 days. Test results have shown that using of ternary blends improved the fresh properties of the mixtures. The compressive strength of SCC at 90 days with 30% of PZ and MP was similar to those of ordinary concrete use in situ.

Keywords: self-compacting mortar, self-compacting concrete, natural pozzolana, marble powder, rheology, compressive strength

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838 The Life-Cycle Theory of Dividends: Evidence from Indonesia

Authors: Vashti Carissa

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The main objective of this study is to examine whether the life-cycle theory of dividends could explain the determinant of an optimal dividend policy in Indonesia. The sample that was used consists of 1,420 non-financial and non-trade, services, investment firms listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange during the period of 2005-2014. According to this finding using logistic regression, firm life-cycle measured by retained earnings as a proportion of total equity (RETE) significantly has a positive effect on the propensity of a firm pays dividend. The higher company’s earned surplus portion in its capital structure could reflect firm maturity level which will increase the likelihood of dividend payment in mature firms. This result provides an additional empirical evidence about the existence of life-cycle theory of dividends for dividend payout phenomenon in Indonesia. It can be known that dividends tend to be paid by mature firms while retention is more dominating in growth firms. From the testing results, it can also be known that majority of sample firms are being in the growth phase which proves the fact about infrequent dividend distribution in Indonesia during the ten years observation period.

Keywords: dividend, dividend policy, life-cycle theory of dividends, mix of earned and contributed capital

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837 Interaction of Non-Gray-Gas Radiation with Opposed Mixed Convection in a Lid-Driven Square Cavity

Authors: Mohammed Cherifi, Abderrahmane Benbrik, Siham Laouar-Meftah, Denis Lemonnier

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The present study was conducted to numerically investigate the interaction of non-gray-gas radiation with opposed mixed convection in a vertical two-sided lid-driven square cavity. The opposing flows are simultaneously generated by the vertical boundary walls which slide at a constant speed and the natural convection due to the gradient temperature of differentially heated cavity. The horizontal walls are thermally insulated and perfectly reflective. The enclosure is filled with air-H2O-CO2 gas mixture, which is considered as a non-gray, absorbing, emitting and not scattering medium. The governing differential equations are solved by a finite-volume method, by adopting the SIMPLER algorithm for pressure–velocity coupling. The radiative transfer equation (RTE) is solved by the discrete ordinates method (DOM). The spectral line weighted sum of gray gases model (SLW) is used to account for non-gray radiation properties. Three cases of the effects of radiation (transparent, gray and non-gray medium) are studied. Comparison is also made with the parametric studies of the effect of the mixed convection parameter, Ri (0.1, 1, 10), on the fluid flow and heat transfer have been performed.

Keywords: opposed mixed convection, non-gray-gas radiation, two-sided lid-driven cavity, discrete ordinate method, SLW model

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836 Design and Experimental Studies of a Centrifugal SWIRL Atomizer

Authors: Hemabushan K., Manikandan

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In a swirl atomizer, fluid undergoes a swirling motion as a result of centrifugal force created by opposed tangential inlets in the swirl chamber. The angular momentum of fluid continually increases as it reaches the exit orifice and forms a hollow sheet. Which disintegrates to form ligaments and droplets respectively as it flows downstream. This type of atomizers used in rocket injectors and oil burner furnaces. In this present investigation a swirl atomizer with two opposed tangential inlets has been designed. Water as working fluid, experiments had been conducted for the fluid injection pressures in regime of 0.033 bar to 0.519 bar. The fluid has been pressured by a 0.5hp pump and regulated by a pressure regulator valve. Injection pressure of fluid has been measured by a U-tube mercury manometer. The spray pattern and the droplets has been captured with a high resolution camera in black background with a high intensity flash highlighting the fluid. The unprocessed images were processed in ImageJ processing software for measuring the droplet diameters and its shape characteristics along the downstream. The parameters such as mean droplet diameter and distribution, wave pattern, rupture distance and spray angle were studied for this atomizer. The above results were compared with theoretical results and also analysed for deviation with design parameters.

Keywords: swirl atomizer, injector, spray, SWIRL

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835 Study and Modeling of Flood Watershed in Arid and Semi Arid Regions of Algeria

Authors: Belagoune Fares, Boutoutaou Djamel

Abstract:

The study on floods in Algeria established by the National Agency of Water Resources (ANRH) shows that the country is confronted with the phenomenon of very destructive floods and floods especially in arid and semiarid regions. Flooding of rivers in these areas is less known. They are characterized by their sudden duration (rain showers, thunderstorm).The duration of the flood is of the order of minutes to hours. The human and material damage caused by these floods were still high. The study area encompasses three watersheds in semi-arid and arid south and Algeria. THERE are pools of Chott-Melghir (68,751 km2), highland Constantine-07 (9578 km2) and El Hodna-05 basin (25,843 km2). The total area of this zone is about 104,500km2.Studies of protection against floods and design studies of hydraulic structures (spillway, storm basin, etc.) require the raw data which is often unknown in several places particularly at ungauged wadis of these areas. This makes it very difficult to schedules and managers working in the field of hydraulic studies. The objective of this study and propose a methodology for determining flows in the absence of observations in the semi-arid and arid south eastern Algeria. The objective of the study is to propose a methodology for these areas of flood calculation for ungauged rivers.

Keywords: flood, watershed, specific flow, coefficient of variation, arid

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834 The Simplicity of the Future: Plain Methods of Setting up a Company under the Freedom of Enterprise

Authors: Renata Hrecska

Abstract:

This research aims to present today's corporate law reforms in the micro, small and medium-sized enterprise sector. The UN Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) currently deals with emerging issues in the sector in its Working Group I that has specifically focused on possible company law simplifications, including the creation of a fully unique company, the UNCITRAL Limited Liability Organization. However, beyond the work at the UN, the different states has also been focusing on simplification efforts and demands in the sphere of commercial law. We can observe that e.g. Slovakia, Serbia, Poland, Croatia, Hungary, Romania and France are undergoing legal reforms aimed at restructuring the sector through simplification of registration or operation. An important objective of the research is to examine where the boundary is for the legal entity to be more transparent and accountable, while the legislator wants to bring the possibility of establishing a company closer to the citizen. The research material presents the advantages and disadvantages of different initiatives with comparative legal instruments and draws conclusions on the possible future vision. The researcher herself attended some of the meetings of the relevant UNCITRAL working group as a national delegated expert, giving her a personal insight into the UNLLO discourse.

Keywords: commercial law, company formation, MSME, UNCITRAL

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833 Identity Conflict between Social and Business Entrepreneurs: The Challenge of Constructing a Novel Social Identity

Authors: Rui G. Serôdio, Carina Martins, Alexandra Serra, José A. Lima, Luísa Catita, Paula Lopes

Abstract:

Building on social identity approach, we tested the impact of social categorization and comparison in the psychosocial process by which social entrepreneurs define their group identity. Specifically, we address how both differentiation and assimilation processes are set of in the context of constructing a novel, distinctive and socially salient – social entrepreneurs. As part of a larger research line, a quasi-experimental study with Social and Business Entrepreneurs, as well as “Lay People” provided evidence consistent with our predictions: (1) Social Entrepreneurs, in contrast with Lay People and Business Entrepreneurs, value more strongly social identity than personal identity, and the later is the only group that values Personal Differentiation; (2) unlike Entrepreneurs, Social Entrepreneurs display an ingroup bias across group evaluations; (3) Lay People, display a self-serving bias, although, overall, they allocate a more positive image to the target groups; (4) combining own vs. others evaluations across all groups, Social Entrepreneurs receive the more positive value. From the standpoint of social identity and self-categorization theories and their approach to group process, we discuss the processes of intergroup comparison and differentiation as core processes in the construction of a positive social identity. We illustrate it within the context of social entrepreneurship, a political and social “wave” that flows across Europe at this time.

Keywords: group processes, social entrepreneurship, social identity, business entrepreneurs

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832 World on the Edge: Migration and Cross Border Crimes in West Africa

Authors: Adeyemi Kamil Hamzah

Abstract:

The contiguity of nations in international system suggests that world is a composite of socio-economic unit with people exploring and exploiting the potentials in the world via migrations. Thus, cross border migration has made positive contributions to social and economic development of individuals and nations by increasing the household incomes of the host countries. However, the cross border migrations in West Africa are becoming part of a dynamic and unstable world migration system. This is due to the nature and consequences of trans-border crimes in West Africa, with both short and long term effects on the socio-economic viability of developing countries like West African States. The paper identified that migration influenced cross-border crimes as well as the high spate of insurgencies in the sub-region. Furthermore, the consequential effect of a global village has imbalanced population flows, making some countries host and parasites to others. Also, stern and deft cross-border rules and regulations, as well as territorial security and protections, ameliorate cross border crimes and migration in West African sub-regions. Therefore, the study concluded that cross border migration is the linchpin of all kinds of criminal activities which affect the security of states in the sub-region.

Keywords: cross-border migration, border crimes, security, West Africa, development, globalisation

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831 An Entropy Stable Three Dimensional Ideal MHD Solver with Guaranteed Positive Pressure

Authors: Andrew R. Winters, Gregor J. Gassner

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A high-order numerical magentohydrodynamics (MHD) solver built upon a non-linear entropy stable numerical flux function that supports eight traveling wave solutions will be described. The method is designed to treat the divergence-free constraint on the magnetic field in a similar fashion to a hyperbolic divergence cleaning technique. The solver is especially well-suited for flows involving strong discontinuities due to its strong stability without the need to enforce artificial low density or energy limits. Furthermore, a new formulation of the numerical algorithm to guarantee positivity of the pressure during the simulation is described and presented. By construction, the solver conserves mass, momentum, and energy and is entropy stable. High spatial order is obtained through the use of a third order limiting technique. High temporal order is achieved by utilizing the family of strong stability preserving (SSP) Runge-Kutta methods. Main attributes of the solver are presented as well as details on an implementation of the new solver into the multi-physics, multi-scale simulation code FLASH. The accuracy, robustness, and computational efficiency is demonstrated with a variety of numerical tests. Comparisons are also made between the new solver and existing methods already present in FLASH framework.

Keywords: entropy stability, finite volume scheme, magnetohydrodynamics, pressure positivity

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830 Lifetime Assessment of Highly Efficient Metal-Based Air-Diffuser through Accelerated Degradation Test

Authors: Jinyoung Choi, Tae-Ho Yoon, Sunmook Lee

Abstract:

Degradation of standard oxygen transfer efficiency (SOTE) with time was observed for the assessment of lifetime of metal-based air-diffuser, which displaced a polymer composite-based air-diffuser in order to attain a longer lifetime in the actual field. The degradation of air-diffuser occurred due to the failure of the formation of small and uniform air bubbles since the patterns formed on the disc of air-diffuser deteriorated and/or changed from their initial shapes while they were continuously exposed to the air blowing condition during the operation in the field. Therefore, the lifetime assessment of metal-based air-diffuser was carried out through an accelerated degradation test by accelerating the air-blowing conditions in 200 L/min, 300 L/min, and 400 L/min and the lifetime of normal operating condition at 120 L/min was predicted. It was found that Weibull distribution was the most proper one for describing the lifetime distribution of metal-based air-diffuser in the present study. The shape and scale parameters indicated that the accelerated blowing conditions were all within the acceleration domain. The lifetime was predicted by adopting inverse power model for a stress-life relationship and estimated to be B10=94,004 hrs with CL=95%. Acknowledgement: This work was financially supported by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (Grant number: N0001475).

Keywords: accelerated degradation test, air-diffuser, lifetime assessment, SOTE

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829 Aerodynamic Design of a Light Long Range Blended Wing Body Unmanned Vehicle

Authors: Halison da Silva Pereira, Ciro Sobrinho Campolina Martins, Vitor Mainenti Leal Lopes

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Long range performance is a goal for aircraft configuration optimization. Blended Wing Body (BWB) is presented in many works of literature as the most aerodynamically efficient design for a fixed-wing aircraft. Because of its high weight to thrust ratio, BWB is the ideal configuration for many Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) missions on geomatics applications. In this work, a BWB aerodynamic design for typical light geomatics payload is presented. Aerodynamic non-dimensional coefficients are predicted using low Reynolds number computational techniques (3D Panel Method) and wing parameters like aspect ratio, taper ratio, wing twist and sweep are optimized for high cruise performance and flight quality. The methodology of this work is a summary of tailless aircraft wing design and its application, with appropriate computational schemes, to light UAV subjected to low Reynolds number flows leads to conclusions like the higher performance and flight quality of thicker airfoils in the airframe body and the benefits of using aerodynamic twist rather than just geometric.

Keywords: blended wing body, low Reynolds number, panel method, UAV

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828 Nonstationary Increments and Casualty in the Aluminum Market

Authors: Andrew Clark

Abstract:

McCauley, Bassler, and Gunaratne show that integration I(d) processes as used in economics and finance do not necessarily produce stationary increments, which are required to determine causality in both the short term and the long term. This paper follows their lead and shows I(d) aluminum cash and futures log prices at daily and weekly intervals do not have stationary increments, which means prior causality studies using I(d) processes need to be re-examined. Wavelets based on undifferenced cash and futures log prices do have stationary increments and are used along with transfer entropy (versus cointegration) to measure causality. Wavelets exhibit causality at most daily time scales out to 1 year, and weekly time scales out to 1 year and more. To determine stationarity, localized stationary wavelets are used. LSWs have the benefit, versus other means of testing for stationarity, of using multiple hypothesis tests to determine stationarity. As informational flows exist between cash and futures at daily and weekly intervals, the aluminum market is efficient. Therefore, hedges used by producers and consumers of aluminum need not have a big concern in terms of the underestimation of hedge ratios. Questions about arbitrage given efficiency are addressed in the paper.

Keywords: transfer entropy, nonstationary increments, wavelets, localized stationary wavelets, localized stationary wavelets

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827 Calculating Collision Risk Exposures and Risk Probabilities at Container Terminals

Authors: Mohammad Ali Hasanzadeh, Thierry Vanelslander, Eddy Van De Voorde

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Nowadays maritime transport is a key element in international trade and global supply chain. Economies of scale in transporting goods are one of the most attractive elements of using ships. Without maritime transport, almost no globalization of economics can be imagined. Within maritime transport, ports are the interface between lands and see. Even though using ships help cargo owners to have a competitive margin but an accident in port during loading or unloading or even moving cargoes within the terminal can diminish such margin. Statistics shows that due to the high-speed notion of activities within ports, collision accidents are the most common type of accidents. To mitigate such accidents, the appropriate risk exposures have to be defined and calculate, later on risk probabilities can be determined for each type of accident, i.e. fatal, severe, moderate and minor ones. Having such risk probabilities help managers to define the effectiveness of each collision risk control option. This research defined travelled distance as main collision risk exposure in container terminals, taking all the related items into consideration, it was calculated for Shahid Rajae container terminals. Following this finding, collision risk probabilities were computed.

Keywords: collision accident, container terminal, maritime transport, risk exposure

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826 Genotoxic and Cytotoxic Effects of Methidathion Pesticide

Authors: Mohammad Y. Alfaifi

Abstract:

Methidathion (MTD) (Trade name Supracide®) is a non-systemic organophosphorus insecticide used intensively worldwide including Saudi Arabia. However, there is a lack in published studies about it's genotoxicity. In this study we evaluated MTD toxicity in rat bone marrow cells (in vivo) and in lymphocytes (in vitro) using different doses based on LD50. MNNCE (Micronucleated normocromatic erythrocytes) and MNPCE (Micronucleated polychromatic erythrocytes), NDI (Nuclear division index) and NDCI (nuclear division cytotoxicity index), necrotic and apoptotic cells were recorded in rat's bone marrow samples. CA, MI (number of cells undergoing mitosis) necrotic, and apoptotic cells recorded in lymphocytes. Results showed that there was a slight increase in the frequency of micronucleated bone marrow cells. However, no structural chromosomal aberrations were detected in vivo or in vitro. On the other hand, the results showed significant increase in necrotic and apoptotic cells following MTD administration in a dose-dependent manner comparing to positive and negative control groups. In light of these results, MTD can be considered highly cytotoxic and moderate genotoxic, and precaution should be taken when using MTD.

Keywords: methidathion, micronucleus, NDI, NDCI, toxicity, chromosomal aberrations

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825 Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulation to Study the Effect of Ambient Temperature on the Ventilation in a Metro Tunnel

Authors: Yousef Almutairi, Yajue Wu

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Various large-scale trends have characterized the current century thus far, including increasing shifts towards urbanization and greater movement. It is predicted that there will be 9.3 billion people on Earth in 2050 and that over two-thirds of this population will be city dwellers. Moreover, in larger cities worldwide, mass transportation systems, including underground systems, have grown to account for the majority of travel in those settings. Underground networks are vulnerable to fires, however, endangering travellers’ safety, with various examples of fire outbreaks in this setting. This study aims to increase knowledge of the impacts of extreme climatic conditions on fires, including the role of the high ambient temperatures experienced in Middle Eastern countries and specifically in Saudi Arabia. This is an element that is not always included when assessments of fire safety are made (considering visibility, temperatures, and flows of smoke). This paper focuses on a tunnel within Riyadh’s underground system as a case study and includes simulations based on computational fluid dynamics using ANSYS Fluent, which investigates the impact of various ventilation systems while identifying smoke density, speed, pressure and temperatures within this tunnel.

Keywords: fire, subway tunnel, CFD, mechanical ventilation, smoke, temperature, harsh weather

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824 A PROMETHEE-BELIEF Approach for Multi-Criteria Decision Making Problems with Incomplete Information

Authors: H. Moalla, A. Frikha

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Multi-criteria decision aid methods consider decision problems where numerous alternatives are evaluated on several criteria. These methods are used to deal with perfect information. However, in practice, it is obvious that this information requirement is too much strict. In fact, the imperfect data provided by more or less reliable decision makers usually affect decision results since any decision is closely linked to the quality and availability of information. In this paper, a PROMETHEE-BELIEF approach is proposed to help multi-criteria decisions based on incomplete information. This approach solves problems with incomplete decision matrix and unknown weights within PROMETHEE method. On the base of belief function theory, our approach first determines the distributions of belief masses based on PROMETHEE’s net flows and then calculates weights. Subsequently, it aggregates the distribution masses associated to each criterion using Murphy’s modified combination rule in order to infer a global belief structure. The final action ranking is obtained via pignistic probability transformation. A case study of real-world application concerning the location of a waste treatment center from healthcare activities with infectious risk in the center of Tunisia is studied to illustrate the detailed process of the BELIEF-PROMETHEE approach.

Keywords: belief function theory, incomplete information, multiple criteria analysis, PROMETHEE method

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823 Heat Transfer from a Cylinder in Cross-Flow of Single and Multiphase Flows

Authors: F. A. Hamad, S. He

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In this paper, the average heat transfer characteristics for a cross flow cylinder of 16 mm diameter in a vertical pipe has been studied for single-phase flow (water/oil) and multicomponent (non-boiling) flow (water-air, water-oil, oil-air and water-oil-air). The cylinder is uniformly heated by electrical heater placed at the centre of the element. The results show that the values of average heat transfer coefficients for water are around four times the values for oil flow. Introducing air as a second phase with water has very little effect on heat transfer rate, while the heat transfer increased by 70% in case of oil. For water–oil flow, the heat transfer coefficient values are reflecting the percentage of water up to 50%, but increasing the water more than 50% leads to a sharp increase in the heat transfer coefficients to become close to the values of pure water. The enhancement of heat transfer by mixing two phases may be attributed to the changes in flow structure near to cylinder surface which lead to thinner boundary layer and higher turbulence. For three-phase flow, the heat transfer coefficients for all cases fall within the limit of single-phase flow of water and oil and are very close to pure water values. The net effect of the turbulence augmentation due to the introduction of air and the attenuation due to the introduction of oil leads to a thinner boundary layer of oil over the cylinder surface covered by a mixture of water and air bubbles.

Keywords: circular cylinder, cross flow, hear transfer, multicomponent multiphase flow

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822 Slip Suppression Sliding Mode Control with Various Chattering Functions

Authors: Shun Horikoshi, Tohru Kawabe

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This study presents performance analysis results of SMC (Sliding mode control) with changing the chattering functions applied to slip suppression problem of electric vehicles (EVs). In SMC, chattering phenomenon always occurs through high frequency switching of the control inputs. It is undesirable phenomenon and degrade the control performance, since it causes the oscillations of the control inputs. Several studies have been conducted on this problem by introducing some general saturation function. However, study about whether saturation function was really best and the performance analysis when using the other functions, weren’t being done so much. Therefore, in this paper, several candidate functions for SMC are selected and control performance of candidate functions is analyzed. In the analysis, evaluation function based on the trade-off between slip suppression performance and chattering reduction performance is proposed. The analyses are conducted in several numerical simulations of slip suppression problem of EVs. Then, we can see that there is no difference of employed candidate functions in chattering reduction performance. On the other hand, in slip suppression performance, the saturation function is excellent overall. So, we conclude the saturation function is most suitable for slip suppression sliding mode control.

Keywords: sliding mode control, chattering function, electric vehicle, slip suppression, performance analysis

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821 Risk Management in an Islamic Framework

Authors: Magid Maatallah

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The problem is, investment management in modern conditions boils down to risk management which is very underdeveloped in Islamic financial theory and practice. Add to this the fact that, in Islamic perception, this is one of the areas of conventional finance in need of drastic reforms. This need was recently underlined by the story of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM ), ( told by Roger Lowenstein in his book, When Genius Failed, Random House, 2000 ). So we face a double challenge, to develop Islamic techniques of risk management and to see that these new techniques are free from the ills with which conventional methods are suffering. This is different from the challenge faced in the middle of twentieth century, to develop a method of financial intermediation free of interest.Risk was always there, especially in business. But industrialization brought risks unknown in trade and agriculture. Industrial production often involves long periods of time .The longer the period of production the more the uncertainty. The scope of the market has expanded to cover the whole world, introducing new kinds of risk. More than a thousand years ago, when Islamic laws were being written, the nature and scope of risk and uncertainty was different. However, something can still be learnt which, in combination with the modern experience, should enable us to realize the Shariah objectives of justice, fairness and efficiency.

Keywords: financial markets, Islamic framework, risk management, investment

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820 The Assessment of Some Biological Parameters With Dynamic Energy Budget of Mussels in Agadir Bay

Authors: Zahra Okba, Hassan El Ouizgani

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Anticipating an individual’s behavior to the environmental factors allows for having relevant ecological forecasts. The Dynamic Energy Budget model facilitates prediction, and it is mechanically dependent on biology to abiotic factors but is generally field verified under relatively stable physical conditions. Dynamic Energy Budget Theory (DEB) is a robust framework that can link the individual state to environmental factors, and in our work, we have tested its ability to account for variability by looking at model predictions in the Agadir Bay, which is characterized by a semi-arid climate and temperature is strongly influenced by the trade winds front and nutritional availability. From previous works in our laboratory, we have collected different biological DEB model parameters of Mytilus galloprovincialis mussel in Agadir Bay. We mathematically formulated the equations that make up the DEB model and then adjusted our analytical functions with the observed biological data of our local species. We also assumed the condition of constant immersion, and then we integrated the details of the tidal cycles to calculate the metabolic depression at low tide. Our results are quite satisfactory concerning the length and shape of the shell in one part and the gonadosomatic index in another part.

Keywords: dynamic energy budget, mussels, mytilus galloprovincialis, agadir bay, DEB model

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819 Feature Extraction and Impact Analysis for Solid Mechanics Using Supervised Finite Element Analysis

Authors: Edward Schwalb, Matthias Dehmer, Michael Schlenkrich, Farzaneh Taslimi, Ketron Mitchell-Wynne, Horen Kuecuekyan

Abstract:

We present a generalized feature extraction approach for supporting Machine Learning (ML) algorithms which perform tasks similar to Finite-Element Analysis (FEA). We report results for estimating the Head Injury Categorization (HIC) of vehicle engine compartments across various impact scenarios. Our experiments demonstrate that models learned using features derived with a simple discretization approach provide a reasonable approximation of a full simulation. We observe that Decision Trees could be as effective as Neural Networks for the HIC task. The simplicity and performance of the learned Decision Trees could offer a trade-off of a multiple order of magnitude increase in speed and cost improvement over full simulation for a reasonable approximation. When used as a complement to full simulation, the approach enables rapid approximate feedback to engineering teams before submission for full analysis. The approach produces mesh independent features and is further agnostic of the assembly structure.

Keywords: mechanical design validation, FEA, supervised decision tree, convolutional neural network.

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818 Experimental on Free and Forced Heat Transfer and Pressure Drop of Copper Oxide-Heat Transfer Oil Nanofluid in Horizontal and Inclined Microfin Tube

Authors: F. Hekmatipour, M. A. Akhavan-Behabadi, B. Sajadi

Abstract:

In this paper, the combined free and forced convection heat transfer of the Copper Oxide-Heat Transfer Oil (CuO-HTO) nanofluid flow in horizontal and inclined microfin tubes is studied experimentally. The flow regime is laminar, and pipe surface temperature is constant. The effect of nanoparticle and microfin tube on the heat transfer rate is investigated with the Richardson number which is between 0.1 and 0.7. The results show an increasing nanoparticle concentration between 0% and 1.5% leads to enhance the combined free and forced convection heat transfer rate. According to the results, five correlations are proposed to provide estimating the free and forced heat transfer rate as the increasing Richardson number from 0.1 to 0.7. The maximum deviation of both correlations is less than 16%. Moreover, four correlations are suggested to assess the Nusselt number based on the Rayleigh number in inclined tubes from 1800000 to 7000000. The maximum deviation of the correlation is almost 16%. The Darcy friction factor of the nanofluid flow has been investigated. Furthermore, CuO-HTO nanofluid flows in inclined microfin tubes.

Keywords: nanofluid, heat transfer oil, mixed convection, inclined tube, laminar flow

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817 Numerical Study of Entropy Generation Due to Hybrid Nano-Fluid Flow through Coaxial Porous Disks

Authors: Muhammad Bilal Ameen, M. Zubair Akbar Qureshi

Abstract:

The current investigation of two-dimensional hybrid nanofluid flows with two coaxial parallel disks has been presented. Consider the hybrid nanofluid has been taken as steady-state. Consider the coaxial disks that have been porous. Consider the heat equation to examine joule heating and viscous dissipation effects. Nonlinear partial differential equations have been solved numerically. For shear stress and heat transfer, results are tabulated. Hybrid nanoparticles and Eckert numbers are increasing for heat transfer. Entropy generation is expanded with radiation parameters Eckert, Reynold, Prandtl, and Peclet numbers. A set of ordinary differential equations is obtained to utilize the capable transformation variables. The numerical solution of the continuity, momentum, energy, and entropy generation equations is obtaining using the command bvp4c of Matlab as a solver. To explore the impact of main parameters like suction/infusion, Prandtl, Reynold, Eckert, Peclet number, and volume fraction parameters, various graphs have been plotted and examined. It is concluded that a convectional nanofluid is highly compared by entropy generation with the boundary layer of hybrid nanofluid.

Keywords: entropy generation, hybrid nano fluid, heat transfer, porous disks

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816 An Application of Content Analysis, SWOT Analysis, and the TOPSIS Method: A Case Study of the 'Tourism Ambassador' Program in Indonesia

Authors: Gilang Maulana Majid

Abstract:

If a government program remains scientifically uncontested for a long time, it is likely that its effects will be far from expected as there is no concrete evaluation of the steps being taken. This article identifies how such a theory aptly describes the case of the 'tourism ambassador' program in Indonesia. Being set out as one of the tourism promotional means of many regional governments in Indonesia, this program is heavily criticized for being ineffective despite a large number of budgets being spent on an annual basis. Taking the program as a case study, this article applies content analysis, SWOT analysis, and TOPSIS as data analysis methods, with a total of 56 tourism ambassadors invited to become coders, respondents, and/or interviewees in this research. The study reveals the SWOT of the program, recognizes four strategies that can be taken to optimize the program's effects and prioritizes a strategy based on the preferences of the involved tourism ambassadors using TOPSIS. It is found that incorporation of technology such as the creation of an online platform is, among others, the most expected approach to be taken to solve the problems concerning tourism ambassador program. However, based on the costs and benefits of each strategy presented in the current study, each alternative appears to have trade-offs between one and another.

Keywords: Indonesia, optimization strategies, 'Tourism Ambassador' program, SWOT-TOPSIS

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815 Muddle Effort for Organized Crime in India: Social Work Concern for Anti Human Trafficking Unit

Authors: Rajkamal Ajmeri, Leena Mehta

Abstract:

Growing magnitude of human trafficking is the indicatory symptom of ill society. Despite of many treaties, legislation and protocols control over human trafficking require additional attention. However, many Anti Human Trafficking Units (AHTU) are working throughout India but it is a fact that incidence pertaining to illegal human trade is not fully under control. Social work as discipline and practice base profession has a lot of concern about situation and the trafficked victims. United state put Indian in tier II watch list because they are not fully complying with the minimum standard of Trafficking Victims Protection laws but they are making a significant effort to bring themselves into compliance with those standards. In order to solve the issue, scientific research of experiences and opinions of government / non government machineries can play an effective role in raising the standard legislation for trafficked victims. Proper study can enhance understanding on various problems faced by government machineries. The study can help in developing the scientific model, which can effectively solve the problem in human trafficking field.

Keywords: human trafficking, legislations, victims, social work, government machinery

Procedia PDF Downloads 287