Search results for: smooth baseline hazard
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2079

Search results for: smooth baseline hazard

1209 Planning Strategies for Urban Flood Mitigation through Different Case Studies of Best Practices across the World

Authors: Bismina Akbar, Smitha M. V.

Abstract:

Flooding is a global phenomenon that causes widespread devastation, economic damage, and loss of human lives. In the past twenty years, the number of reported flood events has increased significantly. Millions of people around the globe are at risk of flooding from coastal, dam breaks, groundwater, and urban surface water and wastewater sources. Climate change is one of the important causes for them since it affects, directly and indirectly, the river network. Although the contribution of climate change is undeniable, human contributions are there to increase the frequency of floods. There are different types of floods, such as Flash floods, Coastal floods, Urban floods, River (or fluvial) floods, and Ponding (or pluvial flooding). This study focuses on formulating mitigation strategies for urban flood risk reduction through analysis of different best practice case studies, including China, Japan, Indonesia, and Brazil. The mitigation measures suggest that apart from the structural and non-structural measures, environmental considerations like blue-green solutions are beneficial for flood risk reduction. And also, Risk-Informed Master plans are essential nowadays to take risk-based decision processes that enable more sustainability and resilience.

Keywords: hazard, mitigation, risk reduction, urban flood

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1208 Tribologycal Design by Molecular Dynamics Simulation- The Influence of Porous Surfaces on Wall Slip and Bulk Shear

Authors: Seyedmajid Mehrnia, Maximilan Kuhr, Peter F. Pelz

Abstract:

Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulation is a proven method to inspect behaviours of lubricant oils in nano-scale gaps. However, most MD simulations on tribology have been performed with atomically smooth walls to determine wall slip and friction properties. This study will investigate the effect of porosity, specifically nano-porous walls, on wall slip properties of hydrocarbon oils confined between two walls in a Couette flow. Different pore geometries will be modelled to investigate the effect on wall slip and bulk shear. In this paper, the Polyalphaolefin (PAO) molecules are confined to a stationary and a moving wall. A hybrid force field consisting of different potential energy functions was employed in this MD simulation. Newton’s law defines how those forces will influence the atoms' movements. The interactions among surface atoms were simulated with an Embedded Atom Method (EAM) potential function which can represent the characteristics of metallic arrangements very strongly. We implemented NERD forcefield for intramolecular potential energy function. Also, Lennard-Jones potential was employed for nonbonded intermolecular interaction.

Keywords: slip length, molecular dynamics, critical shear rate, Couette flow

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1207 Predictors and Prevention of Sports’ Injuries among Male Professional Footballers in Nigeria

Authors: Timothy A. Oloyede

Abstract:

The study assessed the influence of playing field, climatic conditions, rate of exposure to matches, skill level and competition level on the occurrence and severity of football injuries. The prospective outline of the study was as follows: after a baseline examination and measurements were performed ascertaining possible predictors of injury, all players were followed up weekly for one year to register subsequent injuries and complaints. Four hundred and thirty-five out of 455 subjects completed the weekly follow-ups over one year. Multiple regression analysis was employed to analyse the data collected. Results showed that playing field, climatic conditions, rate of exposure to matches skill level and competition level were predictors of injuries among the professional footballer. Playing on natural grass, acclimatization, reduction of physical overload, among others, were strategies postulated for preventing injuries.

Keywords: sports’ injuries, predictors of sports’ injuries, intrinsic risk factors, extrinsic risk factors, injury mechanism, professional footballer

Procedia PDF Downloads 248
1206 Integrated Environmental Management System and Environmental Impact Assessment in Evaluation of Environmental Protective Action

Authors: Moustafa Osman

Abstract:

The paper describes and analyses different good practice examples of protective levels, and initiatives actions (“framework conditions”) and encourages the uptake of environmental management systems (EMSs) to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Most of industries tend to take EMS as tools leading towards sustainability planning. The application of these tools has numerous environmental obligations that neither suggests decision nor recommends what a company should achieve ultimately. These set up clearly defined criteria to evaluate environmental protective action (EEPA) into sustainability indicators. The physical integration will evaluate how to incorporate traditional knowledge into baseline information, preparing impact prediction, and planning mitigation measures in monitoring conditions. Thereby efforts between the government, industry and community led protective action to concern with present needs for future generations, meeting the goal of sustainable development. The paper discusses how to set out distinct aspects of sustainable indicators and reflects inputs, outputs, and modes of impact on the environment.

Keywords: environmental management, sustainability, indicators, protective action

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1205 Evaluation of Expected Annual Loss Probabilities of RC Moment Resisting Frames

Authors: Saemee Jun, Dong-Hyeon Shin, Tae-Sang Ahn, Hyung-Joon Kim

Abstract:

Building loss estimation methodologies which have been advanced considerably in recent decades are usually used to estimate socio and economic impacts resulting from seismic structural damage. In accordance with these methods, this paper presents the evaluation of an annual loss probability of a reinforced concrete moment resisting frame designed according to Korean Building Code. The annual loss probability is defined by (1) a fragility curve obtained from a capacity spectrum method which is similar to a method adopted from HAZUS, and (2) a seismic hazard curve derived from annual frequencies of exceedance per peak ground acceleration. Seismic fragilities are computed to calculate the annual loss probability of a certain structure using functions depending on structural capacity, seismic demand, structural response and the probability of exceeding damage state thresholds. This study carried out a nonlinear static analysis to obtain the capacity of a RC moment resisting frame selected as a prototype building. The analysis results show that the probability of being extensive structural damage in the prototype building is expected to 0.004% in a year.

Keywords: expected annual loss, loss estimation, RC structure, fragility analysis

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1204 Migrant Women’s Rights “with Chinese Characteristics: The State of Migrant Women in the People’s Republic of China

Authors: Leigha C. Crout

Abstract:

This paper will investigate the categorical disregard of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in establishing and maintaining a baseline standard of civil guarantees for economic migrant women and their dependents. In light of the relative forward strides in terms of policy facilitating the ascension of female workers in China, this oft-invisible subgroup of women remains neglected from the modern-day “iron rice bowl” of the self-identified communist state. This study is being undertaken to rectify the absence of data on this subject and provide a baseline for future studies on the matter, as the human rights of migrants has become an established facet of transnational dialogue and debate. The basic methodology of this research will consist of the evaluation of China’s compliance with its own national guidelines, and the eight international human rights law treaties it has ratified. Data will be extracted and cross-checked from a number of relevant sources to monitor the extent of compliance, including but by no means limited to the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) Universal Periodic Review (UPR) reports and responses, submissions and responses of international human rights treaty bodies, local and international nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and their annual reports, and articles and commentaries authored by specialists on the modern state and implementation of Chinese law. Together, these data will illuminate the vast network of compliance that has forced many migrant women to work within situations of extreme economic precarity. The structure will proceed as follows: first, an outline of the current status of migrant workers and the enforcement of stipulated protections will be provided; next, the analysis of the oft-debated regulations directing and the outline of mandatory services guaranteed to external and internal migrants; and finally, a conclusion incorporating various recommendations to improve transparency and gradually decrease the amount of migrant work turned forced labor that typifies the economic migrant experience, especially in the case of women. The internal and international migrant workers in China are bound by different and uncomplimentary systems. The first, which governs Chinese citizens moving to different regions or provinces to find more sustainable employment (internal migrants), is called the hukou (or huji) residency system. This law enforces strict regulation of the movement of peoples, while ensuring that residents of urban areas receive preferential benefits to those received by their so-called “agricultural” resident counterparts. Given the overwhelming presence of the Communist Party of China throughout the vast state, the management of internal migrants and the disregard for foreign domestic workers is, at minimum, a surprising oversight. This paper endeavors to provide a much-needed foundation for future commentary and discussion on the treatment of female migrant workers and their families in the People’s Republic of China.

Keywords: female migrant worker’s rights, the People’s Republic of China, forced labor, Hukou residency system

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1203 Probabilistic Model for Evaluating Seismic Soil Liquefaction Based on Energy Approach

Authors: Hamid Rostami, Ali Fallah Yeznabad, Mohammad H. Baziar

Abstract:

The energy-based method for evaluating seismic soil liquefaction has two main sections. First is the demand energy, which is dissipated energy of earthquake at a site, and second is the capacity energy as a representation of soil resistance against liquefaction hazard. In this study, using a statistical analysis of recorded data by 14 down-hole array sites in California, an empirical equation was developed to estimate the demand energy at sites. Because determination of capacity energy at a site needs to calculate several site calibration factors, which are obtained by experimental tests, in this study the standard penetration test (SPT) N-value was assumed as an alternative to the capacity energy at a site. Based on this assumption, the empirical equation was employed to calculate the demand energy for 193 liquefied and no-liquefied sites and then these amounts were plotted versus the corresponding SPT numbers for all sites. Subsequently, a discrimination analysis was employed to determine the equations of several boundary curves for various liquefaction likelihoods. Finally, a comparison was made between the probabilistic model and the commonly used stress method. As a conclusion, the results clearly showed that energy-based method can be more reliable than conventional stress-based method in evaluation of liquefaction occurrence.

Keywords: energy demand, liquefaction, probabilistic analysis, SPT number

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1202 Risk Reduction of Household Refuse, a Case Study of Shagari Low-Cost, Mubi North (LGA) Adamawa State, Nigeria

Authors: Maryam Tijjani Kolo

Abstract:

Lack of refuse dumping points has made the residents of Shagari low-cost well armed with some health and environmental related hazards. These studies investigate the effect of household refuse on the resident of Shagari low-cost. A well structured questionnaire was administered to elicit views of the respondent in the study area through adopting cluster sampling method. A total of 100 questionnaires were selected and divided into 50, each to both sections of the study area. Interview was conducted to each household head. Data obtained were analyzed using simple parentages to determine the major hazard in the area. Result showed that majority of the household are civil servant and traders, earning reasonable monthly income. 68% of the respondent has experienced the effect of living close to waste dumping areas, which include unpleasant smell and polluted smoke when refuse is burnt, which causes eye and respiratory induction, human injury from broken bottles or sharp objects as well as water, insect and air borne diseases. Hence, the need to urgently address these menace before it overwhelms the capacities of the community becomes paramount. Thus, the community should be given more enlightenment and refuse dumping sites should be created by the local government area.

Keywords: household, refuse, refuse dumping points, Shagari low-cost

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1201 Increased Nitrogen Removal in Cold Deammonification Biofilm Reactor (9-15°C) by Smooth Temperature Decreasing

Authors: Ivar Zekker, Ergo Rikmann, Anni Mandel, Markus Raudkivi, Kristel Kroon, Liis Loorits, Andrus Seiman, Hannu Fritze, Priit Vabamäe, Toomas Tenno, Taavo Tenno

Abstract:

The anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox) and nitritation-anammox (deammonification) processes are widely used for N-rich wastewater treatment nowadays. A deammonification moving bed biofilm reactor (MBBR) with a high maximum total nitrogen removal rate (TNRR) of 1.5 g N m-2 d-1 was started up and similarly high TNRR was sustained at low temperature of 15°C. During biofilm cultivation, temperature in MBBR was lowered by 0.5° C week-1 sustaining the high TNRR. To study the short-term effect of temperature on the TNRR, a series of batch-scale experiments performed showed sufficient TNRRs even at 9-15° C (4.3-5.4 mg N L-1 h-1, respectively). After biomass was adapted to lower temperature (15°C), the TNRR increase at lower temperature (15°C) was relatively higher (15-20%) than with biomass adapted to higher temperatures (17-18°C). Anammox qPCR showed increase of Candidatus Brocadia quantities from 5×103 to 1×107 anammox gene copies g-1 TSS despite temperature lowered to 15°C. Modeling confirmed causes of stable and unstable periods in the reactor and in batch test high Arrhenius constant of 29.7 kJ mol-1 of the process as high as at 100 mg NO2--N L-1 were determined. 

Keywords: deammonification, reject water, intermittent aeration, nitrite inhibition

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1200 Treatment and Characterization of Cadmium Metal From Textile Factory Wastewater by Electrochemical Process Using Aluminum Plate Electrode

Authors: Dessie Tibebe, Yeshifana Ayenew, Marye Mulugeta, Yezbie Kassa, Zerubabel Moges, Dereje Yenealem, Tarekegn Fentie, Agmas Amare, Hailu Sheferaw Ayele

Abstract:

Electrochemical treatment technology is a technique used for wastewater treatment due to its ability to eliminate impurities that are not easily removed by chemical processes. The objective of the study is the treatment and characterization of textile wastewater by an electrochemical process. The results obtained at various operational parameters indicated that at 20 minutes of electrochemical process at ( pH =7), initial concentration 10 mg/L, current density 37.5 mA/cm², voltage 9 v and temperature 25⁰C the highest removal efficiency was achieved. The kinetics of removal of selected metal by electrochemical treatment has been successfully described by the first-order rate equation. The results of microscopic techniques using SEM for the scarified electrode before treatment were uniform and smooth, but after the electrochemical process, the morphology was completely changed. This is due to the detection of the adsorbed aluminum hydroxide coming from adsorption of the conducting electrolyte, chemicals used in the experiments, alloying and the scrap impurities of the anode and cathode. The FTIR spectroscopic analysis broad bands at 3450 cm-¹ representing O-H functional groups, while the presence of H-O-H and Al-H groups are indicated by the bands at 2850-2750 cm-¹ and 1099 representing C-H functional groups.

Keywords: electrochemical, treatment, textile wastewater, kinetics, removal efficiency

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1199 Development of Potato Starch Based Active Packaging Films Loaded with Antioxidants and Its Effect on Shelf Life of Beef

Authors: Bilal Ahmad Ashwar, Inam u nisa, Asima Shah, Adil Gani, Farooq Ahmad Masoodi

Abstract:

The effects of 5% BHT and green tea extracts (GTE) on the physical, barrier, mechanical, thermal and antioxidant properties of potato starch films were investigated. Results showed both BHT and GTE significantly lowered solubility of films. Addition of BHT significantly decreased water vapour transmission rate. Both BHT and GTE promoted significant increase in the elastic modulus but a decrease in % EAB, however BHT was more effective in increasing elastic modulus. Increase in glass transition temperature (Tg) and enthalpy of transition (ΔH) of films was observed with the incorporation of GTE and BHT. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) revealed smooth surface of the films. The DPPH radical scavenging ability of both BHT and GTE films were stronger in fatty food stimulant (95% ethanol. The GTE and BHT films were individually applied to fresh beef samples and were stored at 4 0C and room temperature for 10 days. Metmyoglobin formation and lipid oxidation (TBARS) were monitored periodically. The addition of GTE extracts and BHT resulted in decreases in metmyoglobin and TBARS values. We conclude that extracts of GTE and BHT have potential as preservatives for fresh beef.

Keywords: starch film, WVTR, tensile properties, SEM, thermal analysis, DPPH scavenging activity, TBARS, metmyoglobin

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1198 Experiment Study on the Influence of Tool Materials on the Drilling of Thick Stacked Plate of 2219 Aluminum Alloy

Authors: G. H. Li, M. Liu, H. J. Qi, Q. Zhu, W. Z. He

Abstract:

The drilling and riveting processes are widely used in the assembly of carrier rocket, which makes the efficiency and quality of drilling become the important factor affecting the assembly process. According to the problem existing in the drilling of thick stacked plate (thickness larger than 10mm) of carrier rocket, such as drill break, large noise and burr etc., experimental study of the influence of tool material on the drilling was carried out. The cutting force was measured by a piezoelectric dynamometer, the aperture was measured with an outline projector, and the burr is observed and measured by a digital stereo microscope. Through the measurement, the effects of tool material on the drilling were analyzed from the aspects of drilling force, diameter, and burr. The results show that, compared with carbide drill and coated carbide one, the drilling force of high speed steel is larger. But, the application of high speed steel also has some advantages, e.g. a higher number of hole can be obtained, the height of burr is small, the exit is smooth and the slim burr is less, and the tool experiences wear but not fracture. Therefore, the high speed steel tool is suitable for the drilling of thick stacked plate of 2219 Aluminum alloy.

Keywords: 2219 aluminum alloy, thick stacked plate, drilling, tool material

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1197 A Pole Radius Varying Notch Filter with Transient Suppression for Electrocardiogram

Authors: Ramesh Rajagopalan, Adam Dahlstrom

Abstract:

Noise removal techniques play a vital role in the performance of electrocardiographic (ECG) signal processing systems. ECG signals can be corrupted by various kinds of noise such as baseline wander noise, electromyographic interference, and power-line interference. One of the significant challenges in ECG signal processing is the degradation caused by additive 50 or 60 Hz power-line interference. This work investigates the removal of power line interference and suppression of transient response for filtering noise corrupted ECG signals. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Infinite Impulse Response (IIR) notch filter with time varying pole radius for improving the transient behavior. The temporary change in the pole radius of the filter diminishes the transient behavior. Simulation results show that the proposed IIR filter with time varying pole radius outperforms traditional IIR notch filters in terms of mean square error and transient suppression.

Keywords: notch filter, ECG, transient, pole radius

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1196 Dissecting Big Trajectory Data to Analyse Road Network Travel Efficiency

Authors: Rania Alshikhe, Vinita Jindal

Abstract:

Digital innovation has played a crucial role in managing smart transportation. For this, big trajectory data collected from traveling vehicles, such as taxis through installed global positioning system (GPS)-enabled devices can be utilized. It offers an unprecedented opportunity to trace the movements of vehicles in fine spatiotemporal granularity. This paper aims to explore big trajectory data to measure the travel efficiency of road networks using the proposed statistical travel efficiency measure (STEM) across an entire city. Further, it identifies the cause of low travel efficiency by proposed least square approximation network-based causality exploration (LANCE). Finally, the resulting data analysis reveals the causes of low travel efficiency, along with the road segments that need to be optimized to improve the traffic conditions and thus minimize the average travel time from given point A to point B in the road network. Obtained results show that our proposed approach outperforms the baseline algorithms for measuring the travel efficiency of the road network.

Keywords: GPS trajectory, road network, taxi trips, digital map, big data, STEM, LANCE

Procedia PDF Downloads 154
1195 Comprehensive Regional Drought Assessment Index

Authors: A. Zeynolabedin, M. A. Olyaei, B. Ghiasi

Abstract:

Drought is an inevitable part of the earth’s climate. It occurs regularly with no clear warning and without recognizing borders. In addition, its impact is cumulative and not immediately discernible. Iran is located in a semi-arid region where droughts occur periodically as natural hazard. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI), and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) are three well-known indices which describe drought severity; each has its own advantages and disadvantages and can be used for specific types of drought. These indices take into account some factors such as precipitation, reservoir storage and discharge, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration in determining drought severity. In this paper, first all three indices are calculated in Aharchay river watershed located in northwestern part of Iran in East Azarbaijan province. Next, based on two other important parameters which are groundwater level and solar radiation, two new indices are defined. Finally, considering all five aforementioned indices, a combined drought index (CDI) is presented and calculated for the region. This combined index is based on all the meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural features of the region. The results show that the most severe drought condition in Aharchay watershed happened in Jun, 2004. The result of this study can be used for monitoring drought and prepare for the drought mitigation planning.

Keywords: drought, GIS, intensity index, regional assessment, variation maps

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1194 Parameters Adjustment of the Modified UBCSand Constitutive Model for the Potentially Liquefiable Sands of Santiago de Cali-Colombia

Authors: Daniel Rosero, Johan S. Arana, Sebastian Arango, Alejandro Cruz, Isabel Gomez-Gutierrez, Peter Thomson

Abstract:

Santiago de Cali is located in the southwestern Colombia in a high seismic hazard zone. About 50% of the city is on the banks of the Cauca River, which is the second most important hydric affluent in the country and whose alluvial deposits contain potentially liquefiable sands. Among the methods used to study a site's liquefaction potential is the finite elements method which use constitutive models to simulate the soil response for different load types. Among the different constitutive models, the Modified UBCSand stands out to study the seismic behavior of sands, and especially the liquefaction phenomenon. In this paper, the dynamic behavior of a potentially liquefiable sand of Santiago de Cali is studied by cyclic triaxial and CPTu tests. Subsequently, the behavior of the sand is simulated using the Modified UBCSand constitutive model, whose parameters are calibrated using the results of cyclic triaxial and CPTu tests. The above with the aim of analyze the constitutive model applicability for studying the geotechnical problems associated to liquefaction in the city.

Keywords: constitutive model, cyclic triaxial test, dynamic behavior, liquefiable sand, modified ubcsand

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1193 Reclamation of Molding Sand: A Chemical Approach to Recycle Waste Foundry Sand

Authors: Mohd Moiz Khan, S. M. Mahajani, G. N. Jadhav

Abstract:

Waste foundry sand (total clay content 15%) contains toxic heavy metals and particulate matter which make dumping of waste sand an environmental and health hazard. Disposal of waste foundry sand (WFS) remains one of the substantial challenges faced by Indian foundries nowadays. To cope up with this issue, the chemical method was used to reclaim WFS. A stirrer tank reactor was used for chemical reclamation. Experiments were performed to reduce the total clay content from 15% to as low as 0.9% in chemical reclamation. This method, although found to be effective for WFS reclamation, it may face a challenge due to the possibly high operating cost. Reclaimed sand was found to be satisfactory in terms of sand qualities such as total clay (0.9%), active clay (0.3%), acid demand value (ADV) (2.6%), loss on igniting (LOI) (3 %), grain fineness number (GFN) (56), and compressive strength (60 kPa). The experimental data generated on chemical reactor under different conditions is further used to optimize the design and operating parameters (rotation speed, sand to acidic solution ratio, acid concentration, temperature and time) for the best performance. The use of reclaimed sand within the foundry would improve the economics and efficiency of the process and reduce environmental concerns.

Keywords: chemical reclamation, clay content, environmental concerns, recycle, waste foundry sand

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1192 Enhance Biogas Production by Enzymatic Pre-Treatment from Palm Oil Mill Effluent (POME)

Authors: M. S. Tajul Islam, Md. Zahangir Alam

Abstract:

To enhance biogas production through anaerobic digestion, the application of various type of pre-treatment method has some limitations in terms of sustainable environmental management. Many studies on pretreatments especially chemical and physical processes are carried out to evaluate the anaerobic digestion for enhanced biogas production. Among the pretreatment methods acid and alkali pre-treatments gained the highest importance. Previous studies have showed that although acid and alkali pretreatment has significant effect on degradation of biomass, these methods have some negative impact on environment due to their hazard in nature while enzymatic pre-treatment is environmentally friendly. One of the constrains to use of enzyme in pretreatment process for biogas production is high cost which is currently focused to reduce cost through fermentation of waste-based media. As such palm oil mill effluent (POME) as an abundant resource generated during palm oil processing at mill is being used a potential fermentation media for enzyme production. This low cost of enzyme could be an alternative to biogas pretreatment process. This review is to focus direct application of enzyme as enzymatic pre-treatment on POME to enhanced production of biogas.

Keywords: POME, enzymatic pre-treatment, biogas, lignocellulosic biomass, anaerobic digestion

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1191 Modular Harmonic Cancellation in a Multiplier High Voltage Direct Current Generator

Authors: Ahmad Zahran, Ahmed Herzallah, Ahmad Ahmad, Mahran Quraan

Abstract:

Generation of high DC voltages is necessary for testing the insulation material of high voltage AC transmission lines with long lengths. The harmonic and ripple contents of the output DC voltage supplied by high voltage DC circuits require the use of costly capacitors to smooth the output voltage after rectification. This paper proposes a new modular multiplier high voltage DC generator with embedded Cockcroft-Walton circuits that achieve a negligible harmonic and ripple contents of the output DC voltage without the need for costly filters to produce a nearly constant output voltage. In this new topology, Cockcroft-Walton modules are connected in series to produce a high DC output voltage. The modules are supplied by low input AC voltage sources that have the same magnitude and frequency and shifted from each other by a certain angle to eliminate the harmonics from the output voltage. The small ripple factor is provided by the smoothing column capacitors and the phase shifted input voltages of the cascaded modules. The constituent harmonics within each module are determined using Fourier analysis. The viability of the proposed DC generator for testing purposes and the effectiveness of the cascaded connection are confirmed by numerical simulations using MATLAB/Simulink.

Keywords: Cockcroft-Walton circuit, harmonics, ripple factor, HVDC generator

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1190 Seismic Hazard Prediction Using Seismic Bumps: Artificial Neural Network Technique

Authors: Belkacem Selma, Boumediene Selma, Tourkia Guerzou, Abbes Labdelli

Abstract:

Natural disasters have occurred and will continue to cause human and material damage. Therefore, the idea of "preventing" natural disasters will never be possible. However, their prediction is possible with the advancement of technology. Even if natural disasters are effectively inevitable, their consequences may be partly controlled. The rapid growth and progress of artificial intelligence (AI) had a major impact on the prediction of natural disasters and risk assessment which are necessary for effective disaster reduction. The Earthquakes prediction to prevent the loss of human lives and even property damage is an important factor; that is why it is crucial to develop techniques for predicting this natural disaster. This present study aims to analyze the ability of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict earthquakes that occur in a given area. The used data describe the problem of high energy (higher than 10^4J) seismic bumps forecasting in a coal mine using two long walls as an example. For this purpose, seismic bumps data obtained from mines has been analyzed. The results obtained show that the ANN with high accuracy was able to predict earthquake parameters; the classification accuracy through neural networks is more than 94%, and that the models developed are efficient and robust and depend only weakly on the initial database.

Keywords: earthquake prediction, ANN, seismic bumps

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1189 Postural Orthostatic Tachycardia Syndrome: A Case Study and Discussion of Its Epidemiology, Pathophysiology, Diagnosis, and Management

Authors: Zayd Parekh, Amish Prasad, Baraa Souman

Abstract:

Postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) is characterized by orthostatic intolerance due to an exaggerated tachycardia in response to standing upright. This exaggerated orthostatic tachycardia is defined as the heart rate (HR) rising 30 beats above a baseline value while supine or seated within ten minutes. The tachycardia can lead to symptoms of orthostatic intolerance such as palpitations, lightheadedness, exercise intolerance, fatigue, and anxiety. POTS can go undiagnosed for many years due to its similarities with other cardiac and psychiatric conditions and nonspecific presentation, making it crucial to raise awareness for it in the medical field. The following case study discusses a 30-year-old female who was evaluated in the emergency room several times before being referred to the clinic for POTS. An overview of what tests are performed with this patient is also provided, highlighting the diagnostic work-up for POTS and the process of ruling out other differentials being considered. Finally, the epidemiology, the various theories regarding its pathophysiology, the diagnostic process, and pharmacological and non-pharmacological management for POTS are reviewed.

Keywords: orthostatic intolerance, postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, syncope, tachycardia

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1188 Analysis and Prediction of Fine Particulate Matter in the Air Environment for 2007-2020 in Bangkok Thailand

Authors: Phawichsak Prapassornpitaya, Wanida Jinsart

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Daily monitoring PM₁₀ and PM₂.₅ data from 2007 to 2017 were analyzed to provide baseline data for prediction of the air pollution in Bangkok in the period of 2018 -2020. Two statistical models, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA) were used to evaluate the trends of pollutions. The prediction concentrations were tested by root means square error (RMSE) and index of agreement (IOA). This evaluation of the traffic PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ were studied in association with the regulatory control and emission standard changes. The emission factors of particulate matter from diesel vehicles were decreased when applied higher number of euro standard. The trends of ambient air pollutions were expected to decrease. However, the Bangkok smog episode in February 2018 with temperature inversion caused high concentration of PM₂.₅ in the air environment of Bangkok. The impact of traffic pollutants was depended upon the emission sources, temperature variations, and metrological conditions.

Keywords: fine particulate matter, ARIMA, RMSE, Bangkok

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1187 Reliability and Probability Weighted Moment Estimation for Three Parameter Mukherjee-Islam Failure Model

Authors: Ariful Islam, Showkat Ahmad Lone

Abstract:

The Mukherjee-Islam Model is commonly used as a simple life time distribution to assess system reliability. The model exhibits a better fit for failure information and provides more appropriate information about hazard rate and other reliability measures as shown by various authors. It is possible to introduce a location parameter at a time (i.e., a time before which failure cannot occur) which makes it a more useful failure distribution than the existing ones. Even after shifting the location of the distribution, it represents a decreasing, constant and increasing failure rate. It has been shown to represent the appropriate lower tail of the distribution of random variables having fixed lower bound. This study presents the reliability computations and probability weighted moment estimation of three parameter model. A comparative analysis is carried out between three parameters finite range model and some existing bathtub shaped curve fitting models. Since probability weighted moment method is used, the results obtained can also be applied on small sample cases. Maximum likelihood estimation method is also applied in this study.

Keywords: comparative analysis, maximum likelihood estimation, Mukherjee-Islam failure model, probability weighted moment estimation, reliability

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1186 Thermal Decontamination of Soils Polluted by Polychlorinated Biphenyls and Microplastics

Authors: Roya Biabani, Mentore Vaccari, Piero Ferrari

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Accumulated microplastic (MPLs) in soil pose the risk of adsorbing and transporting polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) into the food chain or bodies. PCBs belong to a class of man-made hydrophobic organic chemicals (HOCs) that are classified as probable human carcinogens and a hazard to biota. Therefore, to take effective action and not aggravate the already recognized problems, the knowledge of PCB remediation in the presence of MPLs needs to be complete. Due to the high efficiency and little secondary pollution production, thermal desorption (TD) has been widely used for processing a variety of pollutants, especially for removing volatile and semi-volatile organic matter from contaminated solids and sediment. This study investigates the fate of PCB compounds during the thermal remediation method. For this, the PCB-contaminated soil was collected from the earth-canal downstream Caffaro S.p.A. chemical factory, which produced PCBs and PCB mixtures between 1930 and 1984. For MPL analysis, MPLs were separated by density separation and oxidation of organic matter. An operational range for the key parameters of thermal desorption processes was experimentally evaluated. Moreover, the temperature treatment characteristics of the PCBs-contaminated soil under anaerobic and aerobic conditions were studied using the Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA).

Keywords: contaminated soils, microplastics, polychlorinated biphenyls, thermal desorption

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1185 Development and in vitro Characterization of Loteprednol Etabonate-Loaded Polymeric Nanoparticles for Ocular Delivery

Authors: Abhishek Kumar Sah, Preeti K. Suresh

Abstract:

Effective drug delivery to the eye is a massive challenge, due to complicated physiological ocular barriers, rapid washout by tear and nasolachrymal drainage. Thus, most of the conventional ophthalmic formulations face the problem of low ocular bioavailability. Ophthalmic drug therapy can be improved by enhancing the precorneal drug retention along with improved drug penetration. The aim of the present investigation was to develop and evaluate a biodegradable polymer poly (D, L-lactide-co-glycolide) (PLGA) coated nanoparticulate carrier of loteprednol etabonate. PLGA nanoparticles were prepared by modified emulsification/solvent diffusion method using high-speed homogenizer followed by sonication. The nanoparticles were characterized for various parameters such as particle size, zeta potential, polydispersity index, X-ray powder diffraction (XRD), Transmission electron microscopy (TEM), in vitro drug release profile and stability. The prepared nanocarriers displayed mean particle size in the range of 271.7 to 424.4 nm, with zeta potential less than –10 mV. In vitro release in simulated tear fluid (STF) nanocarrier showed an extended release profile of loteprednol etabonate. TEM confirmed the spherical morphology and smooth surface of the particles. All the prepared formulations were found to be stable at varying temperatures.

Keywords: drug delivery, ocular delivery, polymeric nanoparticles, loteprednol etabonate

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1184 Lower Risk of Ischemic Stroke in Hormone Therapy Users with Use of Chinese Herbal Medicine

Authors: Shu-Hui Wen, Wei-Chuan Chang, Hsien-Chang Wu

Abstract:

Background: Little is known about the benefits and risks of use of Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) in conditions related to hormone therapy (HT) use on the risk of ischemic stroke (IS). The aim of this study is to explore the risk of IS in menopausal women treated with HT and CHM. Materials and methods: A total of 32,441 menopausal women without surgical menopause aged 40- 65 years were selected from 2003 to 2010 using the 2-million random samples of the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan. According to the medication usage of HT and CHM, we divided the current and recent users into two groups: an HT use-only group (n = 4,989) and an HT/CHM group (n = 9,265). Propensity-score matching samples (4,079 pairs) were further created to deal with confounding by indication. The adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of IS during HT or CHM treatment were estimated by the robust Cox proportional hazards model. Results: The incidence rate of IS in the HT/CHM group was significantly lower than in the HT group (4.5 vs. 12.8 per 1000 person-year, p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis results indicated that additional CHM use was significant with a lower risk of IS (HR = 0.3; 95% confidence interval, 0.21-0.43). Further subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses had similar findings. Conclusion: We found that combined use of HT and CHM was associated with a lower risk for IS than HT use only. Further study is needed to examine possible mechanism underlying this association.

Keywords: Chinese herbal medicine, hormone therapy, ischemic stroke, menopause

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1183 Application of Italian Guidelines for Existing Bridge Management

Authors: Giovanni Menichini, Salvatore Giacomo Morano, Gloria Terenzi, Luca Salvatori, Maurizio Orlando

Abstract:

The “Guidelines for Risk Classification, Safety Assessment, and Structural Health Monitoring of Existing Bridges” were recently approved by the Italian Government to define technical standards for managing the national network of existing bridges. These guidelines provide a framework for risk mitigation and safety assessment of bridges, which are essential elements of the built environment and form the basis for the operation of transport systems. Within the guideline framework, a workflow based on three main points was proposed: (1) risk-based, i.e., based on typical parameters of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure; (2) multi-level, i.e., including six assessment levels of increasing complexity; and (3) multirisk, i.e., assessing structural/foundational, seismic, hydrological, and landslide risks. The paper focuses on applying the Italian Guidelines to specific case studies, aiming to identify the parameters that predominantly influence the determination of the “class of attention”. The significance of each parameter is determined via sensitivity analysis. Additionally, recommendations for enhancing the process of assigning the class of attention are proposed.

Keywords: bridge safety assessment, Italian guidelines implementation, risk classification, structural health monitoring

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1182 Exploration of Abuse of Position for Sexual Gain by UK Police

Authors: Terri Cole, Fay Sweeting

Abstract:

Abuse of position for sexual gain by police is defined as behavior involving individuals taking advantage of their role to pursue a sexual or improper relationship. Previous research has considered whether it involves ‘bad apples’ - individuals with poor moral ethos or ‘bad barrels’ – broader organizational flaws which may unconsciously allow, minimize, or do not effectively deal with such behavior. Low level sexual misconduct (e.g., consensual sex on duty) is more common than more serious offences (e.g., rape), yet the impact of such behavior can have severe implications not only for those involved but can also negatively undermine public confidence in the police. This ongoing, collaborative research project has identified variables from 514 historic case files from 35 UK police forces in order to identify potential risk indicators which may lead to such behavior. Quantitative analysis using logistic regression and the Cox proportion hazard model has resulted in the identification of specific risk factors of significance in prediction. Factors relating to both perpetrator background such as a history of intimate partner violence, debt, and substance misuse coupled with in work behavior such as misusing police systems increase the risk. Findings are able to provide pragmatic recommendations for those tasked with identifying potential or investigating suspected perpetrators of misconduct.

Keywords: abuse of position, forensic psychology, misconduct, sexual abuse

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1181 Urban Resilince and Its Prioritised Components: Analysis of Industrial Township Greater Noida

Authors: N. Mehrotra, V. Ahuja, N. Sridharan

Abstract:

Resilience is an all hazard and a proactive approach, require a multidisciplinary input in the inter related variables of the city system. This research based to identify and operationalize indicators for assessment in domain of institutions, infrastructure and knowledge, all three operating in task oriented community networks. This paper gives a brief account of the methodology developed for assessment of Urban Resilience and its prioritized components for a target population within a newly planned urban complex integrating Surajpur and Kasna village as nodes. People’s perception of Urban Resilience has been examined by conducting questionnaire survey among the target population of Greater Noida. As defined by experts, Urban Resilience of a place is considered to be both a product and process of operation to regain normalcy after an event of disturbance of certain level. Based on this methodology, six indicators are identified that contribute to perception of urban resilience both as in the process of evolution and as an outcome. The relative significance of 6 R’ has also been identified. The dependency factor of various resilience indicators have been explored in this paper, which helps in generating new perspective for future research in disaster management. Based on the stated factors this methodology can be applied to assess urban resilience requirements of a well planned town, which is not an end in itself, but calls for new beginnings.

Keywords: disaster, resilience, system, urban

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1180 A Generic Middleware to Instantly Sync Intensive Writes of Heterogeneous Massive Data via Internet

Authors: Haitao Yang, Zhenjiang Ruan, Fei Xu, Lanting Xia

Abstract:

Industry data centers often need to sync data changes reliably and instantly from a large-scale of heterogeneous autonomous relational databases accessed via the not-so-reliable Internet, for which a practical universal sync middle of low maintenance and operation costs is most wanted, but developing such a product and adapting it for various scenarios are a very sophisticated and continuous practice. The authors have been devising, applying, and optimizing a generic sync middleware system, named GSMS since 2006, holding the principles or advantages that the middleware must be SyncML-compliant and transparent to data application layer logic, need not refer to implementation details of databases synced, does not rely on host computer operating systems deployed, and its construction is light weighted and hence, of low cost. A series of ultimate experiments with GSMS sync performance were conducted for a persuasive example of a source relational database that underwent a broad range of write loads, say, from one thousand to one million intensive writes within a few minutes. The tests proved that GSMS has achieved an instant sync level of well below a fraction of millisecond per record sync, and GSMS’ smooth performances under ultimate write loads also showed it is feasible and competent.

Keywords: heterogeneous massive data, instantly sync intensive writes, Internet generic middleware design, optimization

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