Search results for: demand%20response%20managment

Authors: M. Khoshab, M. J. Sedigh

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Dynamic systems, which in mathematical point of view are those governed by differential equations, are much more difficult to study and to predict their behavior in comparison with static systems which are governed by algebraic equations. Economical systems such as market are among complicated dynamic systems. This paper tries to adopt a very simple mathematical model for market and to study effect of supply and demand function on behavior of the market while the supply side experiences a lag due to production restrictions.

Keywords: dynamic system, lag on supply demand, market stability, supply demand model

Procedia PDF Downloads 292

Authors: Saba Arif, Anam Nadeem, Roman Kalvin, Tanzeel Rashid, Burhan Ali, Juntakan Taweekun

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Currently, the energy crisis is taking serious attention. Globally, industries and building are major share takers of energy. 72% of total global energy is consumed by residential houses, markets, and commercial building. Additionally, in appliances air conditioners are major consumer of electricity; about 60% energy is used for cooling purpose in houses due to HVAC units. Energy demand will aid in determining what changes will be needed whether it is the estimation of the required energy for households or instituting conservation measures. Bottom-up model is one of the most famous methods for forecasting. In current research bottom-up model of air conditioners' energy consumption in all income classes in comparison with seasonal variation and hourly consumption is calculated. By comparison of energy consumption of all income classes by usage of air conditioners, total consumption of actual demand and current availability can be seen.

Keywords: air conditioning, bottom up model, income classes, energy demand

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Authors: Meimei Zheng

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Product personalization could not only bring new profits to companies but also provide the direction of long-term development for companies. However, the characteristics of personalized product cause some new problems. This paper investigates how companies make decisions on the supply of personalized products when facing different customer attitudes to personalized product and service, constraints due to limited capacity and updates of personalized demand information. This study will provide optimal decisions for companies to develop personalized markets, resulting in promoting business transformation and improving business competitiveness.

Keywords: demand forecast updating, limited capacity, personalized products, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 259

Authors: P. K. Sarkar, Amit Kumar Jain

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The demand for Urban transportation is characterised by a large scale temporal and spatial variations which causes heavy congestion inside metro trains in peak hours near Centre Business District (CBD) of the city. The conventional approach to address peak hour congestion, metro trains has been to increase the supply by way of introduction of more trains, increasing the length of the trains, optimising the time table to increase the capacity of the system. However, there is a limitation of supply side measures determined by the design capacity of the systems beyond which any addition in the capacity requires huge capital investments. The demand side interventions are essentially required to actually spread the demand across the time and space. In this study, an attempt has been made to identify the potential Transport Demand Management tools applicable to Urban Rail Transportation systems with a special focus on differential pricing. A conceptual price elasticity model has been developed to analyse the effect of various combinations of peak and nonpeak hoursfares on demands. The elasticity values for peak hour, nonpeak hour and cross elasticity have been assumed from the relevant literature available in the field. The conceptual price elasticity model so developed is based on assumptions which need to be validated with actual values of elasticities for different segments of passengers. Once validated, the model can be used to determine the peak and nonpeak hour fares with an objective to increase overall ridership, revenue, demand levelling and optimal utilisation of assets.

Keywords: urban transport, differential fares, congestion, transport demand management, elasticity

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Authors: Salinee Thumronglaohapun

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The proper number and appropriate locations of service centers can save cost, raise revenue and gain more satisfaction from customers. Establishing service centers is high-cost and difficult to relocate. In long-term planning periods, several factors may affect the service. One of the most critical factors is uncertain demand of customers. The opened service centers need to be capable of serving customers and making a profit although the demand in each period is changed. In this work, the capacitated location-allocation problem with stochastic demand is considered. A mathematical model is formulated to determine suitable locations of service centers and their allocation to maximize total profit for multiple planning periods. Two heuristic methods, a local search and genetic algorithm, are used to solve this problem. For the local search, five different chances to choose each type of moves are applied. For the genetic algorithm, three different replacement strategies are considered. The results of applying each method to solve numerical examples are compared. Both methods reach to the same best found solution in most examples but the genetic algorithm provides better solutions in some cases.

Keywords: location-allocation problem, stochastic demand, local search, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Amir Andria Gad Shehata

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Minimizing the inventory cost, optimizing the inventory quantities, and increasing system operational availability are the main motivations to enhance forecasting demand of spare parts in a major power utility company in Medina. This paper reports in an effort made to optimize the orders quantities of spare parts by improving the method of forecasting the demand. The study focuses on equipment that has frequent spare parts purchase orders with uncertain demand. The pattern of the demand considers a lumpy pattern which makes conventional forecasting methods less effective. A comparison was made by benchmarking various methods of forecasting based on experts’ criteria to select the most suitable method for the case study. Three actual data sets were used to make the forecast in this case study. Two neural networks (NN) approaches were utilized and compared, namely long short-term memory (LSTM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP). The results as expected, showed that the NN models gave better results than traditional forecasting method (judgmental method). In addition, the LSTM model had a higher predictive accuracy than the MLP model.

Keywords: spare part, spare part inventory, inventory model, optimization, maintenanceneural network, LSTM, MLP, forecasting demand, inventory management

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Authors: Ghassan Al-Dulaimi

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This paper studied the biochemical parameter (BOD5) and (DO) for the Thames River (Canada-Ontario). Water samples have been collected from Thames River along different points between Chatham to Woodstock and were analysed for various water quality parameters during the low flow season (April). The study involves the application of the stream water quality model QUAL2K model to simulate and predict the dissolved oxygen (DO) and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) profiles for Thames River in a stretch of 251 kilometers. The model output showed that DO in the entire river was within the limit of not less than 4 mg/L. For Carbonaceous Biochemical Oxygen Demand CBOD, the entire river may be divided into two main reaches; the first one is extended from Chatham City (0 km) to London (150 km) and has a CBOD concentration of 2 mg/L, and the second reach has CBOD range (2–4) mg/L in which begins from London city and extend to near Woodstock city (73km).

Keywords: biochemical oxygen demand, dissolved oxygen, Thames river, QUAL2K model

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Authors: Patsara Sirikamonsin

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The purposes of this study were I) to study development guidelines of community product which was basket handicraft-bag of Ang Thong province; II) to study consumer demand for the community of basket handicraft-bag products of Ang Thong province. Data were collected via group interview of the community of basket handicraft-bag and consumer in order to obtain information related to product development guidelines in line with consumer demand. The study revealed that development guidelines of community product which was basket handicraft-bag of Ang Thong province caused by the demand of consumers changed by the era which made community of basket handicraft-bag products of Ang Thong province might develop community products to be novel, stylish and accessible. The consumer demand for the product came from the need to consume goods that are like local symbols. Most of them were foreigners and tourists. The advantage of this research was that it would lead to policy implementation and lead to the development of basket handicraft-bag community products of Ang Thong to meet the needs of consumers.

Keywords: community product, product development, basket handicraft-bag, business research

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Authors: Sanghamitra Roy

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In recent times, India has experienced the phenomenal rise in the number of registered vehicles and vehicular trips, particularly intra-city trips in most of its urban areas. The increase in vehicle ownership and use have increased parking demand immensely and accommodating the same is now a matter of big concern. Most cities do not have adequate off-street parking facilities thus forcing people to park on the streets. This has resulted in decreased carrying capacity, decreased traffic speed, increased congestion, and increased environmental problems. While integrated multi-modal transportation system is the answer to such problems, parking issues will continue to exist. In Kolkata, only 6.4% land is devoted for roads. The consequences of this huge crunch in road spaces coupled with increased parking demand are severe particularly in the CBD and major commercial areas, making the role of off-street parking facilities in Kolkata even more critical. To meaningfully address parking issues, it is important to identify the factors that influence parking demand so that it can be assessed and comprehensive parking policies and plans for the city can be formulated. This paper aims at identifying the factors that contribute towards parking demand for offices in Kolkata and their degree of correlation with parking demand. The study is limited to home-to-work trips located within Kolkata Municipal Corporation (KMC) where parking related issues are most pronounced. The data for the study is collected through personal interviews, questionnaires and direct observations from offices across the wards of KMC. SPSS is used for classification of the data and analyses of the same. The findings of this study will help in re-assessment of the parking requirements specified in The Kolkata Municipal Corporation Building Rules as a step towards alleviating parking related issues in the city.

Keywords: building rules, office spaces, parking demand, urbanization

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Authors: Christo Nicholls

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The National Electricity Grid (NEG) in South Africa has been under strain for the last five years. This overburden of the NEG led Eskom (the State-Owned Entity responsible for the NEG) to implement a blunt methodology to assist them in reducing the maximum demand (MD) on the NEG, when required, called Loadshedding. The challenge of this methodology is that not only does it lead to immense technical issues with the distribution network equipment, e.g., transformers, due to the frequent abrupt off and on switching, it also has a broader negative fiscal impact on the distributors, as their key consumers (commercial & industrial) are now grid defecting due to the lack of Electricity Security Provision (ESP). This paper provides a pragmatic alternative methodology utilizing specific functionalities embedded within direct-connect single and three-phase Advanced Meter Infrastructure (AMI) Solutions deployed within the distribution network, in conjunction with a Multi-Agent Systems Based AI implementation focused on Automated Negotiation Peer-2-Peer trading. The results of this research clearly illustrate, not only does methodology provide a factual percentage contribution towards the NEG MD at the point of consideration, it also allows the distributor to leverage the real-time MD data from key consumers to activate complex, yet impact-measurable Demand Response (DR) programs.

Keywords: AI, AMI, demand response, multi-agent

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Authors: Nitin Singh, Meng Ling, Talha Ahmed, Tianxia Zhao, Reinier van de Pol

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We propose the use of reinforcement learning (RL) as a viable alternative for optimizing supply chain management, particularly in scenarios with stochasticity in product demands. RL’s adaptability to changing conditions and its demonstrated success in diverse fields of sequential decision-making makes it a promising candidate for addressing supply chain problems. We investigate the impact of demand fluctuations in a multi-product supply chain system and develop RL agents with learned generalizable policies. We provide experimentation details for training RL agents and statistical analysis of the results. We study the generalization ability of RL agents for different demand uncertainty scenarios and observe superior performance compared to the agents trained with fixed demand curves. The proposed methodology has the potential to lead to cost reduction and increased profit for companies dealing with frequent inventory movement between supply and demand nodes.

Keywords: inventory management, reinforcement learning, supply chain optimization, uncertainty

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Authors: Raja Kannusamy

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The research focuses on reducing food waste in the restaurant industry. A study has been conducted on the chain of retail restaurant outlets. It has been observed that the food wastages are due to the inefficient inventory management systems practiced in the restaurant outlets. The major food items which are wasted more in quantity are being selected across the retail chain outlets. A moving average forecasting method has been applied for the selected food items so that their future demand could be predicted accurately and food wastage could be avoided. It has been found that the moving average prediction method helps in predicting forecasts accurately. The demand values obtained from the moving average method have been compared to the actual demand values and are found to be similar with minimum variations. The inventory optimization technique helps in reducing food wastage in restaurant supply chain outlets.

Keywords: food wastage, restaurant supply chain, inventory optimisation, demand forecasting

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Authors: Merouane Boudjerda, Bénina Touaibia, Mustapha K Mihoubi

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In Algeria, water resources play a crucial role in economic development. But over the last decades, they are relatively limited and gradually decreasing to the detriment of agriculture. The agricultural irrigation is the primary water consuming sector followed by the domestic and industrial sectors. The research presented in this paper focuses on the optimization of irrigation water demand. Dynamic Programming-Neural Network (DPNN) method is applied to investigate reservoir optimization. The optimal operation rule is formulated to minimize the gap between water release and water irrigation demand. As a case study, Boukerdane dam’s reservoir system in North of Algeria has been selected to examine our proposed optimization model. The application of DPNN method allowed increasing the satisfaction rate (SR) from 34% to 60%. In addition, the operation rule generated showed more reliable and resilience operation for the examined case study.

Keywords: water management, agricultural demand, Boukerdane dam, dynamic programming, artificial neural network

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Authors: E. Neidhardt

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Mobility is not only an aspect of personal freedom, but for many people mobility is also a requirement to be able to satisfy the needs of daily life. They must buy food, get to work, or go to the doctor. Many people are dependent on public transport to satisfy their needs. Especially in rural areas with a low population density this is difficult. In these areas it is often not cost-effective to provide public transport with sufficient coverage and frequency. Therefore, the available public transport is unattractive. As a result, people use their own car, which is not desirable from a sustainable point of view. Children and some elderly people also do not have this option. Sometimes people organize themselves and volunteer transport services are created, which function similarly to the demand-oriented taxis. With a platform for demand-oriented transport, we want to make the available public transport more usable and attractive by linking scheduled transport with voluntary transport services.

Keywords: demand-oriented, HubChain, living lab, public transport

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Authors: Humeyra Bolakar Tosun

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The transport sector has an undisputed place in human life. People need transport access to continuous increase day by day with growing population. The number of rail network, urban transport planning, infrastructure improvements, transportation management and other related areas is a key factor affecting our country made it quite necessary to improve the work of transportation. In this context, it plays an important role in domestic rail freight demand planning. Alternatives that the increase in the transportation field and has made it mandatory requirements such as the demand for improving transport quality. In this study generally is known and used in studies by the definition, rail freight transport, railway line length, population, energy consumption. In this study, Iron Road Load Net Demand was modeled by multiple regression and ANN methods. In this study, model dependent variable (Output) is Iron Road Load Net demand and 6 entries variable was determined. These outcome values extracted from the model using ANN and regression model results. In the regression model, some parameters are considered as determinative parameters, and the coefficients of the determinants give meaningful results. As a result, ANN model has been shown to be more successful than traditional regression model.

Keywords: railway load carrying, neural network, modelling transport, transportation

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Authors: Mehdi Naserian, Mohammad Jooshaki, Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad, Mohammad Hossein Mohammadi Sanjani, Ashknaz Oraee

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In recent years, the development of communication infrastructure and smart meters have facilitated the utilization of demand-side resources which can enhance stability and economic efficiency of power systems. Direct load control programs can play an important role in the utilization of demand-side resources in the residential sector. However, investments required for installing control equipment can be a limiting factor in the development of such demand response programs. Thus, selection of consumers with higher potentials is crucial to the success of a direct load control program. Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which due to the heat capacity of buildings feature relatively high flexibility, make up a major part of household consumption. Considering that the consumption of HVAC systems depends highly on the ambient temperature and bearing in mind the high investments required for control systems enabling direct load control demand response programs, in this paper, a recent solution is presented to uncover consumers with high air conditioner demand among large number of consumers and to measure the demand response potential of such consumers. This can pave the way for estimating the investments needed for the implementation of direct load control programs for residential HVAC systems and for estimating the demand response potentials in a distribution system. In doing so, we first cluster consumers into several groups based on the correlation coefficients between hourly consumption data and hourly temperature data using K-means algorithm. Then, by applying a recent algorithm to the hourly consumption and temperature data, consumers with high air conditioner consumption are identified. Finally, demand response potential of such consumers is estimated based on the equivalent desired temperature setpoint changes.

Keywords: communication infrastructure, smart meters, power systems, HVAC system, residential HVAC systems

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Authors: Dagnew Dessie Mengie

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The purpose of this study was to investigate German tourists' demand for Ethiopian tourism destinations. The author has made every effort to identify the differences in the preferences of German visitors’ demand in Ethiopia comparing with Egypt, Kenya, Tanzania, and South African tourism sectors if they are invited to visit at the same time. However, the demand for international tourism for Ethiopia currently lags behind these African countries. Therefore, to offer demand-driven tourism products, the Ethiopian government and tour and travel operators need to understand the important factors that affect international tourists’ decision to visit Ethiopian tourist destinations. The aim of this study was to analyze German Tourists’ Demand for Ethiopian destinations. The researcher aimed to identify the demand for German tourists’ preference for Ethiopian tourist destinations compared to the above-mentioned African countries. For collecting and analysing data for this study, both quantitative and qualitative methods of research are being used in this study. The most significant data are collected by using the primary data collection method i.e. survey and interviews which are the most and large number of potential responses and feedback from nine German active tourists,12 Ethiopian tourism officials, four African embassies, and four well functioning private tour companies and secondary data collected from books, journals, previous research and electronic websites. Based on the data analysis of the information gathered from interviews and questionnaires, the study disclosed that the majority of German tourists do have not that high demand for Ethiopian Tourist destinations due to the following reasons: (1) Many Germans are fascinated by adventures and safari and simply want to lie on the beach and relax. These interests have leaded them to look for other African countries which have these accesses. (2) Uncomfortable infrastructure and transport problems are attributed to the decreasing number of German tourists in the country. (3) Inadequate marketing operation of the Ethiopian Tourism Authority and its delegates in advertising and clarifying the above irregularities which are raised by the tourists.

Keywords: environmental benefits of tourism, social benefits of tourism, economic benefits of tourism, political factors on tourism

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Authors: Esha Saha, Pradip Kumar Ray

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A hospital inventory comprises of a large number and great variety of items for the proper treatment and care of patients, such as pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, surgical items, etc. Improper management of these items, i.e. stockouts, may lead to delay in treatment or other fatal consequences, even death of the patient. So, generally the hospitals tend to overstock items to avoid the risk of stockout which leads to unnecessary investment of money, difficulty in storing, more expiration and wastage, etc. Thus, in such challenging environment, it is necessary for hospitals to follow an inventory policy considering the stochasticity of demand in a hospital. Statistical analysis captures the correlation of patient condition based on bed occupancy with the patient demand which changes stochastically. Due to the dependency on bed occupancy, the markov model is developed that helps to map the changes in demand of hospital inventory based on the changes in the patient condition represented by the movements of bed occupancy states (acute care state, rehabilitative state and long-care state) during the length-of-stay of patient in a hospital. An inventory policy is developed for a hospital based on the fulfillment of patient demand with the objective of minimizing the frequency and quantity of placement of orders of inventoried items. The analytical structure of the model based on probability calculation is provided to show the optimal inventory-related decisions. A case-study is illustrated in this paper for the development of hospital inventory model based on patient demand for multiple inpatient pharmaceutical items. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the impact of inventory-related parameters on the developed optimal inventory policy. Therefore, the developed model and solution approach may help the hospital managers and pharmacists in managing the hospital inventory in case of stochastic demand of inpatient pharmaceutical items.

Keywords: bed occupancy, hospital inventory, markov model, patient condition, pharmaceutical items

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Authors: Tamara Slišković, Tomislav Sekur

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This manuscript examines factors that affect demand and supply of the housing market in Croatia. The period from the beginning of this century, until 2008, was characterized by a strong expansion of construction, housing and real estate market in general. Demand for residential units was expanding, and this was supported by favorable lending conditions of banks. Indicators on the supply side, such as the number of newly built houses and the construction volume index were also increasing. Rapid growth of demand, along with the somewhat slower supply growth, led to the situation in which new apartments were sold before the completion of residential buildings. This resulted in a rise of housing price which was indication of a clear link between the housing prices with the supply and demand in the housing market. However, after 2008 general economic conditions in Croatia worsened and demand for housing has fallen dramatically, while supply descended at much slower pace. Given that there is a gap between supply and demand, it can be concluded that the housing market in Croatia is in imbalance. Such trend is accompanied by a relatively small decrease in housing price. The final result of such movements is the large number of unsold housing units at relatively high price levels. For this reason, it can be argued that housing prices are sticky and that, consequently, the price level in the aftermath of a crisis does not correspond to the discrepancy between supply and demand on the Croatian housing market. The degree of rigidity of the housing price can be determined by inclusion of the housing price as the explanatory variable in the housing demand function. Other independent variables are demographic variable (e.g. the number of households), the interest rate on housing loans, households' disposable income and rent. The equilibrium price is reached when the demand for housing equals its supply, and the speed of adjustment of actual prices to equilibrium prices reveals the extent to which the prices are rigid. The latter requires inclusion of the housing prices with time lag as an independent variable in estimating demand function. We also observe the supply side of the housing market, in order to explain to what extent housing prices explain the movement of new construction activity, and other variables that describe the supply. In this context, we test whether new construction on the Croatian market is dependent on current prices or prices with a time lag. Number of dwellings is used to approximate new construction (flow variable), while the housing prices (current or lagged), quantity of dwellings in the previous period (stock variable) and a series of costs related to new construction are independent variables. We conclude that the key reason for the imbalance in the Croatian housing market should be sought in the relative relationship of price elasticities of supply and demand.

Keywords: Croatian housing market, economic crisis, housing prices, supply imbalance, demand imbalance

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Authors: Nur Mohammad Ali, Md. Shafiqul Alam, Jayanta Bhusan Deb, Nowrin Sharmin

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The past ten years have seen significant expansion in the aviation sector, which during the previous five years has steadily pushed emerging countries closer to economic independence. It is crucial to accurately forecast the potential demand for air travel to make long-term financial plans. To forecast market demand for low-cost passenger carriers, this study suggests working with low-cost airlines, airports, consultancies, and governmental institutions' strategic planning divisions. The study aims to develop an artificial intelligence-based methods, notably fuzzy inference systems (FIS), to determine the most accurate forecasting technique for domestic low-cost carrier demand in Bangladesh. To give end users real-world applications, the study includes nine variables, two sub-FIS, and one final Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System utilizing a graphical user interface (GUI) made with the app designer tool. The evaluation criteria used in this inquiry included mean square error (MSE), accuracy, precision, sensitivity, and specificity. The effectiveness of the developed air passenger demand prediction FIS is assessed using 240 data sets, and the accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, and MSE values are 90.83%, 91.09%, 90.77%, and 2.09%, respectively.

Keywords: aviation industry, fuzzy inference system, membership function, graphical user interference

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Authors: Juan Bojórquez, Henry E. Reyes, Edén Bojórquez, Alfredo Reyes-Salazar

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This paper addressed the use of Artificial Intelligence to obtain the structural reliability of reinforced concrete buildings. For this purpose, artificial neuronal networks (ANN) are developed to predict seismic demand hazard curves. In order to have enough input-output data to train the ANN, a set of reinforced concrete buildings (low, mid, and high rise) are designed, then a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is made to obtain the seismic demand hazard curves. The results are then used as input-output data to train the ANN in a feedforward backpropagation model. The predicted values of the seismic demand hazard curves found by the ANN are then compared. Finally, it is concluded that the computer time analysis is significantly lower and the predictions obtained from the ANN were accurate in comparison to the values obtained from the conventional methods.

Keywords: structural reliability, seismic design, machine learning, artificial neural network, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, seismic demand hazard curves

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Authors: Zaid Jamal Saeed Almahmoud

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Our increasing reliance on electricity, with inefficient consumption trends, has resulted in several economical and environmental threats. These threats include wasting billions of dollars, draining limited resources, and elevating the impact of climate change. As a solution, the smart grid is emerging as the future power grid, with smart techniques to optimize power consumption and electricity generation. Minimizing the peak power consumption under a fixed delay requirement is a significant problem in the smart grid. In addition, matching demand to supply is a key requirement for the success of the future electricity. In this work, we consider the problem of minimizing the peak demand under appliances constraints by scheduling power jobs with uniform release dates and deadlines. As the problem is known to be NP-Hard, we propose two versions of a heuristic algorithm for solving this problem. Our theoretical analysis and experimental results show that our proposed heuristics outperform existing methods by providing a better approximation to the optimal solution. In addition, we consider dynamic pricing methods to minimize the peak load and match demand to supply in the smart grid. Our contribution is the proposal of generic, as well as customized pricing heuristics to minimize the peak demand and match demand with supply. In addition, we propose optimal pricing algorithms that can be used when the maximum deadline period of the power jobs is relatively small. Finally, we provide theoretical analysis and conduct several experiments to evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithms.

Keywords: heuristics, optimization, smart grid, peak demand, power supply

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Authors: Muhammad Fanseem E. M., Rama Satya Satish Kumar, Indrajeet Bhausaheb Bhavar, Deepak M.

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Keeping the right balance of electricity between the supply and demand sides of the grid is one of the most important objectives of electrical grid operation. Power generation and demand forecasting are the core of power management and generation scheduling. Large, centralized producing units were used in the construction of conventional power systems in the past. A certain level of balance was possible since the generation kept up with the power demand. However, integrating renewable energy sources into power networks has proven to be a difficult challenge due to its intermittent nature. The power imbalance caused by rising demands and peak loads is negatively affecting power quality and dependability. Demand side management and demand response were one of the solutions, keeping generation the same but altering or rescheduling or shedding completely the load or demand. However, shedding the load or rescheduling is not an efficient way. There comes the significance of virtual power plants. The virtual power plant integrates distributed generation, dispatchable load, and distributed energy storage organically by using complementing control approaches and communication technologies. This would eventually increase the utilization rate and financial advantages of distributed energy resources. Most of the writing on virtual power plant models ignored technical limitations, and modeling was done in favor of a financial or commercial viewpoint. Therefore, this paper aims to address the modeling intricacies of VPPs and their technical limitations, shedding light on a holistic understanding of this innovative power management approach.

Keywords: cost optimization, distributed energy resources, dynamic modeling, model quality tests, power system modeling

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Authors: Timothy J. Considine, Edward J. M. Manderson

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This paper develops an econometric forecasting system of energy demand coupled with engineering-economic models of energy supply. The framework is used to quantify the impact of state-level renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) achieved predominately with solar generation on electricity rates, electricity consumption, and environmental quality. We perform the analysis using Arizona’s RPS as a case study. We forecast energy demand in Arizona out to 2035, and find by this time the state will require an additional 35 million MWh of electricity generation. If Arizona implements its RPS when supplying this electricity demand, we find there will be a substantial increase in electricity rates (relative to a business-as-usual scenario of reliance on gas-fired generation). Extending the current regime of tax credits can greatly reduce this increase, at the taxpayers’ expense. We find that by 2025 Arizona’s RPS will implicitly abate carbon dioxide emissions at a cost between $101 and $135 per metric ton, and by 2035 abatement costs are between $64 and $112 per metric ton (depending on the future evolution of nature gas prices).

Keywords: electricity demand, renewable portfolio standard, solar, carbon dioxide

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Authors: Hui Wang

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Traditional collection building approaches are limited in breadth and scope and are not necessarily suitable for multidisciplinary fields development in the institutes of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The increasing of multidisciplinary fields researches require a viable approach to collection development in these libraries. This study uses qualitative and quantitative analysis to assess collection. The quantitative analysis consists of three levels of evaluation, which including realistic demand, potential demand and trend demand analysis. For one institute, three samples were separately selected from the object institute, more than one international top institutes in highly relative research fields and future research hotspots. Each sample contains an appropriate number of papers published in recent five years. Several keywords and the organization names were reasonably combined to search in commercial databases and the institutional repositories. The publishing information and citations in the bibliographies of these papers were selected to build the dataset. One weighted evaluation model and citation analysis were used to calculate the demand intensity index of every journal and book. Principal Investigator selector and database traffic provide a qualitative evidence to describe the demand frequency. The demand intensity, demand frequency and academic committee recommendations were comprehensively considered to recommend collection development. The collection gaps or weaknesses were ascertained by comparing the current collection and the recommend collection. This approach was applied in more than 80 institutes’ libraries in Chinese Academy of Sciences in the past three years. The evaluation results provided an important evidence for collections building in the second year. The latest user survey results showed that the updated collection’s capacity to support research in a multidisciplinary subject area have increased significantly.

Keywords: citation analysis, collection assessment, collection development, quantitative analysis

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Authors: Zaid Jamal Saeed Almahmoud

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Smart grid is emerging as the future power grid, with smart techniques to optimize power consumption and electricity generation. Minimizing peak power consumption under a fixed delay requirement is a significant problem in the smart grid.For this problem, all appliances must be scheduled within a given finite time duration. We consider the problem of minimizing the peak demand under appliances constraints by scheduling power jobs with uniform release dates and deadlines. As the problem is known to be NP-hard, we analyze the performance of a version of the natural greedy heuristic for solving this problem. Our theoretical analysis and experimental results show that the proposed heuristic outperforms existing methods by providing a better approximation to the optimal solution.

Keywords: peak demand scheduling, approximation algorithms, smart grid, heuristics

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Authors: Patsara Sirikamonsin, Sathapath Kilaso

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This research aims to study the media and information demand for public relations in Salaya, Nakhonpathom. The research objectives are: 1. to research on conflicts of communication and seeking solutions and improvements of media information in Salaya, Nakhonpathom; 2. to study about opinions and demand for media information to reach out the improvements of people communications among Salaya, Nakhonpathom; 3. to explore the factors related to relationship and behaviors on obtaining media information for public relations among Salaya, Nakhonpathom. The research is conducted by questionnaire which is interpreted by statistical analysis concluding with analysis, frequency, percentage, average and standard deviations. The research results demonstrate: 1. The conflicts of communications among Salaya, Nakhonpathom are lacking equipment and technological knowledge and public relations. 2. Most people have demand on media improvements for vastly broadcasting public relations in order to nourish the social values. This research intentionally is to create the infographic media which are easily accessible, uncomplicated and popular, in the present.

Keywords: media and information, the public relation printed media, local learning resource

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Authors: Dagnew Dessie Mengie

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to investigate German tourists' demand for Ethiopian tourism destinations. The author has made every effort to identify the differences in the preferences of German visitors’ demand in Ethiopia comparing with Egypt, Kenya, Tanzania, and South African tourism sectors if they are invited to visit at the same time. However, the demand of international tourism for Ethiopia currently lags behind these African countries. Therefore, to offer demand-driven tourism products, the Ethiopian government, Tour & Travel operators need to understand the important factors that affect international tourists’ decision to visit Ethiopian tourist destinations. The aim of this study was intended to analyze German Tourists’ Demand towards Ethiopian destination. The researcher aimed to identify the demand for German tourists’ preference to Ethiopian tourist destinations comparing to the above-mentioned African countries. For collecting and analysing data for this study, both quantitative and qualitative methods of research are being used in this study. The most significant data are collected by using the primary data collection method i.e. survey and interviews which are the most and large number of potential responses and feedback from nine German active tourists,12 Ethiopian tourism officials, four African embassies, and four well functioning private tour companies and secondary data collected from books, journals, previous research and electronic websites. based on the data analysis of the information gathered from interviews and questionnaires, the study disclosed that majority of German tourists have not that much high demand on Ethiopian Tourist destinations due to the following reasons; Many Germans are fascinated by adventures, safari and simply want to lie on the beach and relax. These interests have leaded them to look for other African countries which have these accesses. Uncomfortable infrastructure and transport problems attributed for the decreasing the number of German tourists in the country. Inadequate marketing operation of Ethiopian Tourism Authority and its delegates in advertising and clarifying the above irregularities which are raised by the tourists.

Keywords: environmental benefits of tourism, social benefits of tourism, economical benefits of tourism, political factors in tourism

Procedia PDF Downloads 32

Authors: M. Boudjerda, B. Touaibia, M. K. Mihoubi

Abstract:

In Algeria agricultural irrigation is the primary water consuming sector followed by the domestic and industrial sectors. Economic development in the last decade has weighed heavily on water resources which are relatively limited and gradually decreasing to the detriment of agriculture. The research presented in this paper focuses on the optimization of irrigation water demand. Dynamic Programming-Neural Network (DPNN) method is applied to investigate reservoir optimization. The optimal operation rule is formulated to minimize the gap between water release and water irrigation demand. As a case study, Foum El-Gherza dam’s reservoir system in south of Algeria has been selected to examine our proposed optimization model. The application of DPNN method allowed increasing the satisfaction rate (SR) from 12.32% to 55%. In addition, the operation rule generated showed more reliable and resilience operation for the examined case study.

Keywords: water management, agricultural demand, dam and reservoir operation, Foum el-Gherza dam, dynamic programming, artificial neural network

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Oluwatosin Samuel Adeoye

Abstract:

Ekiti State is an agrarian state located in south western part of Nigeria. The injected power to the Ado-Ekiti and the entire state are 25MW and 37.6 MW respectively. The estimated power demand for Ado Ekiti and Ekiti state were 29.01MW and 224.116MW respectively. The distributed power to the consumers is characterized with shortcomings which include: in-adequate supply, poor voltage regulation, improper usage, illiteracy and wastage. The power generation in Nigeria is presently 1680.60MW which does not match the estimated power demand of 15,000MW with a population of over 170 million citizens. This paper evaluates the energy utilization in Ado Ekiti metropolis, the wastage and its economic implication as well as effective means of its management. The use of direct interviews, administration of questionnaires, measurements of current and voltage with clamp multimeter, and simple mathematical approach were used for the purpose of evaluation. Recommendations were made with the view of reducing energy waste from mean value of 10.84% to 2% in order to reduce the cost implication such that the huge financial waste can be injected to other parts of the economy as well as the management of energy in Ekiti state.

Keywords: consumers, demand, energy, management, power supply, waste

Procedia PDF Downloads 340