Search results for: bagging ensemble methods

Authors: Bruk Gebregziabher

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The safe and efficient operation of Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMRs) in complex environments, such as manufacturing, logistics, and agriculture, necessitates accurate multiobject tracking and predictive collision avoidance. This paper presents algorithms and techniques for addressing these challenges using Lidar sensor data, emphasizing ensemble Kalman filter. The developed predictive collision avoidance algorithm employs the data provided by lidar sensors to track multiple objects and predict their velocities and future positions, enabling the AMR to navigate safely and effectively. A modification to the dynamic windowing approach is introduced to enhance the performance of the collision avoidance system. The overall system architecture encompasses object detection, multi-object tracking, and predictive collision avoidance control. The experimental results, obtained from both simulation and real-world data, demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods in various scenarios, which lays the foundation for future research on global planners, other controllers, and the integration of additional sensors. This thesis contributes to the ongoing development of safe and efficient autonomous systems in complex and dynamic environments.

Keywords: autonomous mobile robots, multi-object tracking, predictive collision avoidance, ensemble Kalman filter, lidar sensors

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Authors: Kamalpreet Kaur, Renu Dhir

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Climate prediction is an essential component of climate research, which helps evaluate possible effects on economies, communities, and ecosystems. Climate prediction involves short-term weather prediction, seasonal prediction, and long-term climate change prediction. Climate prediction can use the information gathered from satellites, ground-based stations, and ocean buoys, among other sources. The paper's four architectures, such as ResNet50, VGG19, Inception-v3, and Xception, have been combined using an ensemble approach for overall performance and robustness. An ensemble of different models makes a prediction, and the majority vote determines the final prediction. The various architectures such as ResNet50, VGG19, Inception-v3, and Xception efficiently classify the dataset RSI-CB256, which contains satellite images into cloudy and non-cloudy. The generated ensembled S-E model (Sar-ensembled model) provides an accuracy of 99.25%.

Keywords: climate, satellite images, prediction, classification

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Authors: Rodolfo Lorbieski, Silvia Modesto Nassar

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Many supervised machine learning tasks require decision making across numerous different classes. Multi-class classification has several applications, such as face recognition, text recognition and medical diagnostics. The objective of this article is to analyze an adapted method of Stacking in multi-class problems, which combines ensembles within the ensemble itself. For this purpose, a training similar to Stacking was used, but with three levels, where the final decision-maker (level 2) performs its training by combining outputs from the tree-based pair of meta-classifiers (level 1) from Bayesian families. These are in turn trained by pairs of base classifiers (level 0) of the same family. This strategy seeks to promote diversity among the ensembles forming the meta-classifier level 2. Three performance measures were used: (1) accuracy, (2) area under the ROC curve, and (3) time for three factors: (a) datasets, (b) experiments and (c) levels. To compare the factors, ANOVA three-way test was executed for each performance measure, considering 5 datasets by 25 experiments by 3 levels. A triple interaction between factors was observed only in time. The accuracy and area under the ROC curve presented similar results, showing a double interaction between level and experiment, as well as for the dataset factor. It was concluded that level 2 had an average performance above the other levels and that the proposed method is especially efficient for multi-class problems when compared to binary problems.

Keywords: stacking, multi-layers, ensemble, multi-class

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Authors: Tatsuya Yamazaki, Kazuya Miyakawa, Tomohiko Sugiyama, Toshitaka Iwatani

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The introduction of sensor technologies into agriculture is a necessary step to realize Precision Agriculture. Although sensing methodologies themselves have been prevailing owing to miniaturization and reduction in costs of sensors, there are some difficulties to analyze and understand the sensing data. Targeting at pears ’Le Lectier’, which is particular to Niigata in Japan, cultivation environmental data have been collected at pear fields by eight sorts of sensors: field temperature, field humidity, rain gauge, soil water potential, soil temperature, soil moisture, inner-bag temperature, and inner-bag humidity sensors. With regard to the inner-bag temperature and humidity sensors, they are used to measure the environment inside the fruit bag used for pre-harvest bagging of pears. In this experiment, three kinds of fruit bags were used for the pre-harvest bagging. After over 100 days continuous measurement, volumes of sensing data have been collected. Firstly, correlation analysis among sensing data measured by respective sensors reveals that one sensor can replace another sensor so that more efficient and cost-saving sensing systems can be proposed to pear farmers. Secondly, differences in characteristic and performance of the three kinds of fruit bags are clarified by the measurement results by the inner-bag environmental sensing. It is found that characteristic and performance of the inner-bags significantly differ from each other by statistical analysis. Lastly, a relational model between the sensing data and the pear outlook quality is established by use of Structural Equation Model (SEM). Here, the pear outlook quality is related with existence of stain, blob, scratch, and so on caused by physiological impair or diseases. Conceptually SEM is a combination of exploratory factor analysis and multiple regression. By using SEM, a model is constructed to connect independent and dependent variables. The proposed SEM model relates the measured sensing data and the pear outlook quality determined on the basis of farmer judgement. In particularly, it is found that the inner-bag humidity variable relatively affects the pear outlook quality. Therefore, inner-bag humidity sensing might help the farmers to control the pear outlook quality. These results are supported by a large quantity of inner-bag humidity data measured over the years 2014, 2015, and 2016. The experimental and analytical results in this research contribute to spreading Precision Agriculture technologies among the farmers growing ’Le Lectier’.

Keywords: precision agriculture, pre-harvest bagging, sensor fusion, structural equation model

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Authors: Oluwafunmibi Omotayo Fasanya, Augustine Kena Adjei

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Diabetic nephropathy (DN) is a major complication of diabetes, with fibrosis and propionate metabolism playing critical roles in its progression. Identifying biomarkers linked to these pathways may provide novel insights into DN diagnosis and treatment. This study aims to identify biomarkers associated with fibrosis and propionate metabolism in DN. Analyze the biological pathways and regulatory mechanisms of these biomarkers. Develop a machine learning model to predict DN-related biomarkers and validate their functional roles. Publicly available transcriptome datasets related to DN (GSE96804 and GSE104948) were obtained from the GEO database (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/gds), and 924 propionate metabolism-related genes (PMRGs) and 656 fibrosis-related genes (FRGs) were identified. The analysis began with the extraction of DN-differentially expressed genes (DN-DEGs) and propionate metabolism-related DEGs (PM-DEGs), followed by the intersection of these with fibrosis-related genes to identify key intersected genes. Instead of relying on traditional models, we employed a combination of deep neural networks (DNNs) and ensemble methods such as Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM) and XGBoost to enhance feature selection and biomarker discovery. Recursive feature elimination (RFE) was coupled with these advanced algorithms to refine the selection of the most critical biomarkers. Functional validation was conducted using convolutional neural networks (CNN) for gene set enrichment and immunoinfiltration analysis, revealing seven significant biomarkers—SLC37A4, ACOX2, GPD1, ACE2, SLC9A3, AGT, and PLG. These biomarkers are involved in critical biological processes such as fatty acid metabolism and glomerular development, providing a mechanistic link to DN progression. Furthermore, a TF–miRNA–mRNA regulatory network was constructed using natural language processing models to identify 8 transcription factors and 60 miRNAs that regulate these biomarkers, while a drug–gene interaction network revealed potential therapeutic targets such as UROKINASE–PLG and ATENOLOL–AGT. This integrative approach, leveraging deep learning and ensemble models, not only enhances the accuracy of biomarker discovery but also offers new perspectives on DN diagnosis and treatment, specifically targeting fibrosis and propionate metabolism pathways.

Keywords: diabetic nephropathy, deep neural networks, gradient boosting machines (GBM), XGBoost

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Authors: Loai Abdallah, Malik Yousef

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A domain space for the data should reflect the actual similarity between objects. Since objects belonging to the same cluster usually share some common traits even though their geometric distance might be relatively large. In general, the Euclidean distance of data points that represented by large number of features is not capturing the actual relation between those points. In this study, we propose a new method to construct a different space that is based on clustering to form a new distance metric. The new distance space is based on ensemble clustering (EC). The EC distance space is defined by tracking the membership of the points over multiple runs of clustering algorithm metric. Over this distance, we train the decision trees classifier (DT-EC). The results obtained by applying DT-EC on 10 datasets confirm our hypotheses that embedding the EC space as a distance metric would improve the performance.

Keywords: ensemble clustering, decision trees, classification, K nearest neighbors

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Authors: Swati Bhomia, C. M. Kishtawal, Neeru Jaiswal

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Traditionally, monsoon forecasts have encountered many difficulties that stem from numerous issues such as lack of adequate upper air observations, mesoscale nature of convection, proper resolution, radiative interactions, planetary boundary layer physics, mesoscale air-sea fluxes, representation of orography, etc. Uncertainties in any of these areas lead to large systematic errors. Global circulation models (GCMs), which are developed independently at different institutes, each of which carries somewhat different representation of the above processes, can be combined to reduce the collective local biases in space, time, and for different variables from different models. This is the basic concept behind the multi-model superensemble and comprises of a training and a forecast phase. The training phase learns from the recent past performances of models and is used to determine statistical weights from a least square minimization via a simple multiple regression. These weights are then used in the forecast phase. The superensemble forecasts carry the highest skill compared to simple ensemble mean, bias corrected ensemble mean and the best model out of the participating member models. This approach is a powerful post-processing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing the direct model output errors. Although it can be applied successfully to the continuous parameters like temperature, humidity, wind speed, mean sea level pressure etc., in this paper, this approach is applied to rainfall, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods, due to its high temporal and spatial variability. The present study aims at the development of advanced superensemble schemes comprising of 1-5 day daily precipitation forecasts from five state-of-the-art global circulation models (GCMs), i.e., European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (Europe), National Center for Environmental Prediction (USA), China Meteorological Administration (China), Canadian Meteorological Centre (Canada) and U.K. Meteorological Office (U.K.) obtained from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), which is one of the most complete data set available. The novel approaches include the dynamical model selection approach in which the selection of the superior models from the participating member models at each grid and for each forecast step in the training period is carried out. Multi-model superensemble based on the training using similar conditions is also discussed in the present study, which is based on the assumption that training with the similar type of conditions may provide the better forecasts in spite of the sequential training which is being used in the conventional multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches. Further, a variety of methods that incorporate a 'neighborhood' around each grid point which is available in literature to allow for spatial error or uncertainty, have also been experimented with the above mentioned approaches. The comparison of these schemes with respect to the observations verifies that the newly developed approaches provide more unified and skillful prediction of the summer monsoon (viz. June to September) rainfall compared to the conventional multi-model approach and the member models.

Keywords: multi-model superensemble, dynamical model selection, similarity criteria, neighborhood technique, rainfall prediction

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Authors: Aishwarya Ravindra Fursule, Shruti Kshirsagar

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In the intersection of artificial intelligence and human-centered computing, this paper delves into speech emotion recognition (SER). It presents a comparative analysis of machine learning models such as K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN),logistic regression, support vector machines (SVM), decision trees, ensemble classifiers, and random forests, applied to SER. The research employs four datasets: Crema D, SAVEE, TESS, and RAVDESS. It focuses on extracting salient audio signal features like Zero Crossing Rate (ZCR), Chroma_stft, Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC), root mean square (RMS) value, and MelSpectogram. These features are used to train and evaluate the models’ ability to recognize eight types of emotions from speech: happy, sad, neutral, angry, calm, disgust, fear, and surprise. Among the models, the Random Forest algorithm demonstrated superior performance, achieving approximately 79% accuracy. This suggests its suitability for SER within the parameters of this study. The research contributes to SER by showcasing the effectiveness of various machine learning algorithms and feature extraction techniques. The findings hold promise for the development of more precise emotion recognition systems in the future. This abstract provides a succinct overview of the paper’s content, methods, and results.

Keywords: comparison, ML classifiers, KNN, decision tree, SVM, random forest, logistic regression, ensemble classifiers

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Authors: Rosa Tsegaye Aga, Xuan Jiang, Pavel Vazquez Faci, Siqing Liu, Simon Rayner, Endalkachew Alemu, Markos Abebe

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Tuberculosis (TB) is a major cause of disease globally. In most cases, TB is treatable and curable, but only with the proper treatment. There is a time when drug-resistant TB occurs when bacteria become resistant to the drugs that are used to treat TB. Current strategies to identify drug-resistant TB bacteria are laboratory-based, and it takes a longer time to identify the drug-resistant bacteria and treat the patient accordingly. But machine learning (ML) and data science approaches can offer new approaches to the problem. In this study, we propose to develop an ML-based model to predict the antibiotic resistance phenotypes of TB isolates in minutes and give the right treatment to the patient immediately. The study has been using the whole genome sequence (WGS) of TB isolates as training data that have been extracted from the NCBI repository and contain different countries’ samples to build the ML models. The reason that different countries’ samples have been included is to generalize the large group of TB isolates from different regions in the world. This supports the model to train different behaviors of the TB bacteria and makes the model robust. The model training has been considering three pieces of information that have been extracted from the WGS data to train the model. These are all variants that have been found within the candidate genes (F1), predetermined resistance-associated variants (F2), and only resistance-associated gene information for the particular drug. Two major datasets have been constructed using these three information. F1 and F2 information have been considered as two independent datasets, and the third information is used as a class to label the two datasets. Five machine learning algorithms have been considered to train the model. These are Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random forest (RF), Logistic regression (LR), Gradient Boosting, and Ada boost algorithms. The models have been trained on the datasets F1, F2, and F1F2 that is the F1 and the F2 dataset merged. Additionally, an ensemble approach has been used to train the model. The ensemble approach has been considered to run F1 and F2 datasets on gradient boosting algorithm and use the output as one dataset that is called F1F2 ensemble dataset and train a model using this dataset on the five algorithms. As the experiment shows, the ensemble approach model that has been trained on the Gradient Boosting algorithm outperformed the rest of the models. In conclusion, this study suggests the ensemble approach, that is, the RF + Gradient boosting model, to predict the antibiotic resistance phenotypes of TB isolates by outperforming the rest of the models.

Keywords: machine learning, MTB, WGS, drug resistant TB

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Authors: Saad Al-Baddai, Karema Al-Subari, Elmar Lang, Bernd Ludwig

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Empirical mode decomposition (EMD), a new data-driven of time-series decomposition, has the advantage of supposing that a time series is non-linear or non-stationary, as is implicitly achieved in Fourier decomposition. However, the EMD suffers of mode mixing problem in some cases. The aim of this paper is to present a solution for a common type of signals causing of EMD mode mixing problem, in case a signal suffers of an intermittency. By an artificial example, the solution shows superior performance in terms of cope EMD mode mixing problem comparing with the conventional EMD and Ensemble Empirical Mode decomposition (EEMD). Furthermore, the over-sifting problem is also completely avoided; and computation load is reduced roughly six times compared with EEMD, an ensemble number of 50.

Keywords: empirical mode decomposition (EMD), mode mixing, sifting process, over-sifting

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Authors: Vishal Das, Tianyi Mao, Zhicheng Geng, Carmen Flores, Diego Pelloso, Fang Wang

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Accurate sell-in and sell-out forecasting is a ubiquitous problem in the retail industry. It is an important element of any demand planning activity. As a global food and beverage company, Nestlé has hundreds of products in each geographical location that they operate in. Each product has its sell-in and sell-out time series data, which are forecasted on a weekly and monthly scale for demand and financial planning. To address this challenge, Nestlé Chilein collaboration with Amazon Machine Learning Solutions Labhas developed their in-house solution of using machine learning models for forecasting. Similar products are combined together such that there is one model for each product category. In this way, the models learn from a larger set of data, and there are fewer models to maintain. The solution is scalable to all product categories and is developed to be flexible enough to include any new product or eliminate any existing product in a product category based on requirements. We show how we can use the machine learning development environment on Amazon Web Services (AWS) to explore a set of forecasting models and create business intelligence dashboards that can be used with the existing demand planning tools in Nestlé. We explored recent deep learning networks (DNN), which show promising results for a variety of time series forecasting problems. Specifically, we used a DeepAR autoregressive model that can group similar time series together and provide robust predictions. To further enhance the accuracy of the predictions and include domain-specific knowledge, we designed an ensemble approach using DeepAR and XGBoost regression model. As part of the ensemble approach, we interlinked the sell-out and sell-in information to ensure that a future sell-out influences the current sell-in predictions. Our approach outperforms the benchmark statistical models by more than 50%. The machine learning (ML) pipeline implemented in the cloud is currently being extended for other product categories and is getting adopted by other geomarkets.

Keywords: sell-in and sell-out forecasting, demand planning, DeepAR, retail, ensemble machine learning, time-series

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Authors: Rajvir Kaur, Jeewani Anupama Ginige

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With recent trends in Big Data and advancements in Information and Communication Technologies, the healthcare industry is at the stage of its transition from clinician oriented to technology oriented. Many people around the world die of cancer because the diagnosis of disease was not done at an early stage. Nowadays, the computational methods in the form of Machine Learning (ML) are used to develop automated decision support systems that can diagnose cancer with high confidence in a timely manner. This paper aims to carry out the comparative evaluation of a selected set of ML classifiers on two existing datasets: breast cancer and cervical cancer. The ML classifiers compared in this study are Decision Tree (DT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN), Logistic Regression, Ensemble (Bagged Tree) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The evaluation is carried out based on standard evaluation metrics Precision (P), Recall (R), F1-score and Accuracy. The experimental results based on the evaluation metrics show that ANN showed the highest-level accuracy (99.4%) when tested with breast cancer dataset. On the other hand, when these ML classifiers are tested with the cervical cancer dataset, Ensemble (Bagged Tree) technique gave better accuracy (93.1%) in comparison to other classifiers.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, breast cancer, classifiers, cervical cancer, f-score, machine learning, precision, recall

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Authors: Abdullah Bal

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This paper presents a one-class classification (OCC) technique based on Fukunaga-Koontz Transform (FKT) for binary classification problems. The FKT is originally a powerful tool to feature selection and ordering for two-class problems. To utilize the standard FKT for data domain description problem (i.e., one-class classification), in this paper, a set of non-class samples which exist outside of positive class (target class) describing boundary formed with limited training data has been constructed synthetically. The tunnel-like decision boundary around upper and lower border of target class samples has been designed using statistical properties of feature vectors belonging to the training data. To capture higher order of statistics of data and increase discrimination ability, the proposed method, termed one-class FKT (OC-FKT), has been extended to its nonlinear version via kernel machines and referred as OC-KFKT for short. Multiple kernel learning (MKL) is a favorable family of machine learning such that tries to find an optimal combination of a set of sub-kernels to achieve a better result. However, the discriminative ability of some of the base kernels may be low and the OC-KFKT designed by this type of kernels leads to unsatisfactory classification performance. To address this problem, the quality of sub-kernels should be evaluated, and the weak kernels must be discarded before the final decision making process. MKL/OC-FKT and selective MKL/OC-FKT frameworks have been designed stimulated by ensemble learning (EL) to weight and then select the sub-classifiers using the discriminability and diversities measured by eigenvalue ratios. The eigenvalue ratios have been assessed based on their regions on the FKT subspaces. The comparative experiments, performed on various low and high dimensional data, against state-of-the-art algorithms confirm the effectiveness of our techniques, especially in case of small sample size (SSS) conditions.

Keywords: ensemble methods, fukunaga-koontz transform, kernel-based methods, multiple kernel learning, one-class classification

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Authors: Zachary Blanks, Solomon Sonya

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Poaching presents a serious threat to endangered animal species, environment conservations, and human life. Additionally, some poaching activity has even been linked to supplying funds to support terrorist networks elsewhere around the world. Consequently, agencies dedicated to protecting wildlife habitats have a near intractable task of adequately patrolling an entire area (spanning several thousand kilometers) given limited resources, funds, and personnel at their disposal. Thus, agencies need predictive tools that are both high-performing and easily implementable by the user to help in learning how the significant features (e.g. animal population densities, topography, behavior patterns of the criminals within the area, etc) interact with each other in hopes of abating poaching. This research develops a classification model using machine learning algorithms to aid in forecasting future attacks that is both easy to train and performs well when compared to other models. In this research, we demonstrate how data imputation methods (specifically predictive mean matching, gradient boosting, and random forest multiple imputation) can be applied to analyze data and create significant predictions across a varied data set. Specifically, we apply these methods to improve the accuracy of adopted prediction models (Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, etc). Finally, we assess the performance of the model and the accuracy of our data imputation methods by learning on a real-world data set constituting four years of imputed data and testing on one year of non-imputed data. This paper provides three main contributions. First, we extend work done by the Teamcore and CREATE (Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events) research group at the University of Southern California (USC) working in conjunction with the Department of Homeland Security to apply game theory and machine learning algorithms to develop more efficient ways of reducing poaching. This research introduces ensemble methods (Random Forests and Stochastic Gradient Boosting) and applies it to real-world poaching data gathered from the Ugandan rain forest park rangers. Next, we consider the effect of data imputation on both the performance of various algorithms and the general accuracy of the method itself when applied to a dependent variable where a large number of observations are missing. Third, we provide an alternate approach to predict the probability of observing poaching both by season and by month. The results from this research are very promising. We conclude that by using Stochastic Gradient Boosting to predict observations for non-commercial poaching by season, we are able to produce statistically equivalent results while being orders of magnitude faster in computation time and complexity. Additionally, when predicting potential poaching incidents by individual month vice entire seasons, boosting techniques produce a mean area under the curve increase of approximately 3% relative to previous prediction schedules by entire seasons.

Keywords: ensemble methods, imputation, machine learning, random forests, statistical analysis, stochastic gradient boosting, wildlife protection

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Authors: Bhekisipho Twala, Mantepu Masetshaba, Ramapulana Nkoana

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Multiple classifier systems combine several individual classifiers to deliver a final classification decision. However, an increasingly controversial question is whether such systems can outperform the single best classifier, and if so, what form of multiple classifiers system yields the most significant benefit. Also, multi-target tracking detection using multiple sensors is an important research field in mobile techniques and military applications. In this paper, several multiple classifiers systems are evaluated in terms of their ability to predict a system’s failure or success for multi-sensor target tracking tasks. The Bristol Eden project dataset is utilised for this task. Experimental and simulation results show that the human activity identification system can fulfill requirements of target tracking due to improved sensors classification performances with multiple classifier systems constructed using boosting achieving higher accuracy rates.

Keywords: single classifier, ensemble learning, multi-target tracking, multiple classifiers

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Authors: Sejin Jung, Dongho Kang, Byungsik Kim

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Assessing the impact of climate change requires the use of a multi-model ensemble (MME) to quantify uncertainties between scenarios and produce downscaled outlines for simulation of climate under the influence of different factors, including topography. This study decreases climate change scenarios from the 13 global climate models (GCMs) to assess the impacts of future climate change. Unlike South Korea, North Korea lacks in studies using climate change scenarios of the CoupledModelIntercomparisonProject (CMIP5), and only recently did the country start the projection of extreme precipitation episodes. One of the main purposes of this study is to predict changes in the average climatic conditions of North Korea in the future. The result of comparing downscaled climate change scenarios with observation data for a reference period indicates high applicability of the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME). Furthermore, the study classifies climatic zones by applying the Köppen-Geiger climate classification system to the MME, which is validated for future precipitation and temperature. The result suggests that the continental climate (D) that covers the inland area for the reference climate is expected to shift into the temperate climate (C). The coefficient of variation (CVs) in the temperature ensemble is particularly low for the southern coast of the Korean peninsula, and accordingly, a high possibility of the shifting climatic zone of the coast is predicted. This research was supported by a grant (MOIS-DP-2015-05) of Disaster Prediction and Mitigation Technology Development Program funded by Ministry of Interior and Safety (MOIS, Korea).

Keywords: MME, North Korea, Koppen–Geiger, climatic zones, coefficient of variation, CV

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Authors: Flavio Cannavo

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Continuous evaluation of the status of potentially hazardous volcanos plays a key role for civil protection purposes. The importance of monitoring volcanic activity, especially for energetic paroxysms that usually come with tephra emissions, is crucial not only for exposures to the local population but also for airline traffic. Presently, real-time surveillance of most volcanoes worldwide is essentially delegated to one or more human experts in volcanology, who interpret data coming from different kind of monitoring networks. Unfavorably, the high nonlinearity of the complex and coupled volcanic dynamics leads to a large variety of different volcanic behaviors. Moreover, continuously measured parameters (e.g. seismic, deformation, infrasonic and geochemical signals) are often not able to fully explain the ongoing phenomenon, thus making the fast volcano state assessment a very puzzling task for the personnel on duty at the control rooms. With the aim of aiding the personnel on duty in volcano surveillance, here we introduce a system based on an ensemble of data-driven classifiers to infer automatically the ongoing volcano status from all the available different kind of measurements. The system consists of a heterogeneous set of independent classifiers, each one built with its own data and algorithm. Each classifier gives an output about the volcanic status. The ensemble technique allows weighting the single classifier output to combine all the classifications into a single status that maximizes the performance. We tested the model on the Mt. Etna (Italy) case study by considering a long record of multivariate data from 2011 to 2015 and cross-validated it. Results indicate that the proposed model is effective and of great power for decision-making purposes.

Keywords: Bayesian networks, expert system, mount Etna, volcano monitoring

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Authors: Hamed K. Esfahani, Bithin Datta

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Transport of reactive chemical contaminant species in groundwater aquifers is a complex and highly non-linear physical and geochemical process especially for real life scenarios. Simulating this transport process involves solving complex nonlinear equations and generally requires huge computational time for a given aquifer study area. Development of optimal remediation strategies in aquifers may require repeated solution of such complex numerical simulation models. To overcome this computational limitation and improve the computational feasibility of large number of repeated simulations, Genetic Programming based trained surrogate models are developed to approximately simulate such complex transport processes. Transport process of acid mine drainage, a hazardous pollutant is first simulated using a numerical simulated model: HYDROGEOCHEM 5.0 for a contaminated aquifer in a historic mine site. Simulation model solution results for an illustrative contaminated aquifer site is then approximated by training and testing a Genetic Programming (GP) based surrogate model. Performance evaluation of the ensemble GP models as surrogate models for the reactive species transport in groundwater demonstrates the feasibility of its use and the associated computational advantages. The results show the efficiency and feasibility of using ensemble GP surrogate models as approximate simulators of complex hydrogeologic and geochemical processes in a contaminated groundwater aquifer incorporating uncertainties in historic mine site.

Keywords: geochemical transport simulation, acid mine drainage, surrogate models, ensemble genetic programming, contaminated aquifers, mine sites

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Authors: David F. Nettleton, Christian Wasiak, Jonas Dorissen, David Gillen, Alexandr Tretyak, Elodie Bugnicourt, Alejandro Rosales

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In this work, preliminary results are given for the modeling and calibration of two inline processes, pultrusion, and laser ablation, using machine learning techniques. The end product of the processes is the core of a medical guidewire, manufactured to comply with a user specification of diameter and flexibility. An ensemble approach is followed which requires training several models. Two state of the art machine learning algorithms are benchmarked: Kernel Recursive Least Squares (KRLS) and Support Vector Regression (SVR). The final objective is to build a precise digital model of the pultrusion and laser ablation process in order to calibrate the resulting diameter and flexibility of a medical guidewire, which is the end product while taking into account the friction on the forming die. The result is an ensemble of models, whose output is within a strict required tolerance and which covers the required range of diameter and flexibility of the guidewire end product. The modeling and automatic calibration of complex in-line industrial processes is a key aspect of the Industry 4.0 movement for cyber-physical systems.

Keywords: calibration, data modeling, industrial processes, machine learning

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Authors: Shivam Dwivedi, Sumit Prakash Gupta, Durga Toshniwal

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It is a challenging task in today’s date to keep defence forces in the highest state of combat readiness with budgetary constraints. A huge amount of time and money is squandered in the unnecessary and expensive traditional maintenance activities. To overcome this limitation Defence Intelligent Mission Readiness and Maintenance Scheduling System has been proposed, which ameliorates the maintenance system by diagnosing the condition and predicting the maintenance requirements. Based on new data mining algorithms, this system intelligently optimises mission readiness for imminent operations and maintenance scheduling in repair echelons. With modified data mining algorithms such as Weighted Feature Ranking Genetic Algorithm and SVM-Random Forest Linear ensemble, it improves the reliability, availability and safety, alongside reducing maintenance cost and Equipment Out of Action (EOA) time. The results clearly conclude that the introduced algorithms have an edge over the conventional data mining algorithms. The system utilizing the intelligent condition-based maintenance approach improves the operational and maintenance decision strategy of the defence force.

Keywords: condition based maintenance, data mining, defence maintenance, ensemble, genetic algorithms, maintenance scheduling, mission capability

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Authors: Mina Adel Shokry Fahim, Jūratė Sužiedelytė Visockienė

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With the growing concern over air pollution (AP), it is clear that this has gained more prominence than ever before. The level of consciousness has increased and a sense of knowledge now has to be forwarded as a duty by those enlightened enough to disseminate it to others. This realisation often comes after an understanding of how poor air quality indices (AQI) damage human health. The study focuses on assessing air pollution prediction models specifically for Lithuania, addressing a substantial need for empirical research within the region. Concentrating on Vilnius, it specifically examines particulate matter concentrations 10 micrometers or less in diameter (PM10). Utilizing Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Regression Tree Ensemble, and Regression Tree methodologies, predictive forecasting models are validated and tested using hourly data from January 2020 to December 2022. The study explores the classification of AP data into anthropogenic and natural sources, the impact of AP on human health, and its connection to cardiovascular diseases. The study revealed varying levels of accuracy among the models, with GPR achieving the highest accuracy, indicated by an RMSE of 4.14 in validation and 3.89 in testing.

Keywords: air pollution, anthropogenic and natural sources, machine learning, Gaussian process regression, tree ensemble, forecasting models, particulate matter

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Authors: Pauliina Haustein

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Improvisation was part of Western classical concert culture and performers’ skill sets until early 20th century. Historical accounts, as well as recent studies, indicate that improvisatory elements in the programme may contribute specifically towards the audiences’ experience of enhanced emotional engagement during the concert. This paper presents findings from the author’s artistic practice research, which explored re-introducing improvisation to Western classical performance practice as a musician (cellist and ensemble partner/leader). In an investigation of four concert cycles, the performer-researcher sought to gain solo and chamber music improvisation techniques (both related to and independent of repertoire), conduct ensemble improvisation rehearsals, design concerts with an improvisatory approach, and reflect on interactions with audiences after each concert. Data was collected through use of reflective diary, video recordings, measurement of sound parameters, questionnaires, a focus group, and interviews. The performer’s empirical experiences and findings from audience research components were juxtaposed and interrogated to better understand the (1) rehearsal and planning processes that enable improvisatory elements to return to Western classical concert experience and (2) the emotional experience and type of engagement that occur throughout the concert experience for both performer and audience members. This informed the development of a concert model, in which a programme of solo and chamber music repertoire and improvisations were combined according to historically evidenced performance practice (including free formal solo and ensemble improvisations based on audience suggestions). Inspired by historical concert culture, where elements of risk-taking, spontaneity, and audience involvement (such as proposing themes for fantasies) were customary, this concert model invited musicians to contribute to the process personally and creatively at all stages, from programme planning, and throughout the live concert. The type of democratic, personal, creative, and empathetic collaboration that emerged, as a result, appears unique in Western classical contexts, rather finding resonance in jazz ensemble, drama, or interdisciplinary settings. The research identified features of ensemble improvisation, such as empathy, emergence, mutual engagement, and collaborative creativity, that became mirrored in audience’s responses, generating higher levels of emotional engagement, empathy, inclusivity, and a participatory, co-creative experience. It appears that duringimprovisatory moments in the concert programme, audience members started feeling more like active participants in za\\a creative, collaborative exchange and became stakeholders in a deeper phenomenon of meaning-making and narrativization. Examining interactions between all involved during the concert revealed that performer-audience impulse exchange occurred on multiple levels of awareness and seemed to build upon each other, resulting in particularly strong experiences of both performer and audience’s engagement. This impact appeared especially meaningful for audience members who were seldom concertgoers and reported little familiarity with classical music. The study found that re-introducing improvisatory elements to Western classical concert programmes has strong potential in increasing audience’s emotional engagement with the musical performance, enabling audience members to connect more personally with the individual performers, and in reaching new-to-classical-music audiences.

Keywords: artistic research, audience engagement, audience experience, classical improvisation, ensemble improvisation, emotional engagement, improvisation, improvisatory approach, musical performance, practice research

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Authors: Farhad Alizadeh, Alireza Faregh Gharamaleki, Mojtaba Jalilzadeh, Houshang Gholami, Ali Akhoundzadeh

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This study presented hybrid pre-processing approach along with a conceptual model to enhance the accuracy of river discharge prediction. In order to achieve this goal, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition algorithm (EEMD), Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and Mutual Information (MI) were employed as a hybrid pre-processing approach conjugated to Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM). A conceptual strategy namely multi-station model was developed to forecast the Souris River discharge more accurately. The strategy used herein was capable of covering uncertainties and complexities of river discharge modeling. DWT and EEMD was coupled, and the feature selection was performed for decomposed sub-series using MI to be employed in multi-station model. In the proposed feature selection method, some useless sub-series were omitted to achieve better performance. Results approved efficiency of the proposed DWT-EEMD-MI approach to improve accuracy of multi-station modeling strategies.

Keywords: river stage-discharge process, LSSVM, discrete wavelet transform, Ensemble Empirical Decomposition Mode, multi-station modeling

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Authors: Charles Lee

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The Principal Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) technique has been used as a model reduction tool for many applications in engineering and science. In principle, one begins with an ensemble of data, called snapshots, collected from an experiment or laboratory results. The beauty of the POD technique is that when applied, the entire data set can be represented by the smallest number of orthogonal basis elements. It is the such capability that allows us to reduce the complexity and dimensions of many physical applications. Mathematical formulations and numerical schemes for the POD method will be discussed along with applications in NASA’s Deep Space Large Antenna Arrays, Satellite Image Reconstruction, Cancer Detection with DNA Microarray Data, Maximizing Stock Return, and Medical Imaging.

Keywords: reduced-order methods, principal component analysis, cancer detection, image reconstruction, stock portfolios

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Authors: Ashok Kalagura

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This paper presents a data-mining model for fault-zone identification of flexible AC transmission systems (FACTS)-based transmission line including a thyristor-controlled series compensator (TCSC) and unified power-flow controller (UPFC), using ensemble decision trees. Given the randomness in the ensemble of decision trees stacked inside the random forests model, it provides an effective decision on the fault-zone identification. Half-cycle post-fault current and voltage samples from the fault inception are used as an input vector against target output ‘1’ for the fault after TCSC/UPFC and ‘1’ for the fault before TCSC/UPFC for fault-zone identification. The algorithm is tested on simulated fault data with wide variations in operating parameters of the power system network, including noisy environment providing a reliability measure of 99% with faster response time (3/4th cycle from fault inception). The results of the presented approach using the RF model indicate the reliable identification of the fault zone in FACTS-based transmission lines.

Keywords: distance relaying, fault-zone identification, random forests, RFs, support vector machine, SVM, thyristor-controlled series compensator, TCSC, unified power-flow controller, UPFC

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Authors: Johanna Gamboa-Kroesen

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School connectedness, or the sense of belonging at school, is a critical factor in adolescent health, academic achievement, and socioemotional well-being. In educational research, the construct of the psychological sense of school membership is often referred to as school engagement, school bonding, or school attachment. While current research recognizes school connectedness as integral to a child’s mental health and academic success, many schools have yet to develop adequate interventions to promote a child’s overall sense of belonging at school. However, prior researches in music education indicates that, among other benefits, music classrooms may provide an environment where students feel they belong. While studies indicates that music learning environments, specifically performing ensemble learning environments, instill a sense of school connectedness and, more broadly, contribute to a student’s socio-emotional development, there has been inadequate research on how the actions of music teachers contribute to this phenomenon. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between school connectedness and music learning environments with middle school music students enrolled in a school-based music ensemble. In addition, the study aimed to provide a descriptive analysis of the instructional practices that music teachers use to promote an inclusive environment in their classrooms and an overall sense of belonging in their students. Using 191 student surveys of school membership, student reflective writings, 5 teacher interviews, and 10 classroom observations, this study examined the relationship between 7th and 8th-grade student-reported levels of connectedness within their school-based music ensemble and teacher instructional practice. The study found that students reported high levels of positive school membership within their music classes. Students who participate in school-based orchestra ensembles reported a positive change in emotional state during music instruction. In addition, evidence in this study found that music teachers use instructional practices to build connectedness through de-emphasizing competition and strengthening a student’s sense of relational value within their music learning experience. The findings offer implications for future music teacher instruction to create environments of inclusion, strengthen student-teacher relationships, and promote strategies that enhance student connection to school.

Keywords: music education, belonging, instructional practice, school connectedness

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Authors: Chien-Kuo Chang, Yu-Hsiang Lin, Yi-Yun Tang, Min-Chiu Wu

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With the trend of technological advancement, the harm caused by power outages is substantial, mostly due to problems in the power grid. This highlights the necessity for further improvement in the reliability of the power system. In the power system, gas-insulated switches (GIS) and power cables play a crucial role. Long-term operation under high voltage can cause insulation materials in the equipment to crack, potentially leading to partial discharges. If these partial discharges (PD) can be analyzed, preventative maintenance and replacement of equipment can be carried out, there by improving the reliability of the power grid. This research will diagnose defects by identifying three different defects in GIS and three different defects in straight cable joints, for a total of six types of defects. The partial discharge data measured will be converted through phase analysis diagrams and pulse sequence analysis. Discharge features will be extracted using convolutional image processing, and three different deep learning models, CNN, ResNet18, and MobileNet, will be used for training and evaluation. Class Activation Mapping will be utilized to interpret the black-box problem of deep learning models, with each model achieving an accuracy rate of over 95%. Lastly, the overall model performance will be enhanced through an ensemble learning voting method.

Keywords: partial discharge, gas-insulated switches, straight cable joint, defect identification, deep learning, ensemble learning

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Authors: Jing Zhao, Dayong Liu, Shihao Wang, Xinghua Zhu, Delong Li

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Uhumanned Underwater Vehicles generally operate in the deep sea, which has its own unique working conditions. Lithium-ion power batteries should have the necessary stability and endurance for use as an underwater vehicle’s power source. Therefore, it is essential to accurately forecast how long lithium-ion batteries will last in order to maintain the system’s reliability and safety. In order to model and forecast lithium battery Remaining Useful Life (RUL), this research suggests a model based on Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive noise-Temporal Convolutional Net (CEEMDAN-TCN). In this study, two datasets, NASA and CALCE, which have a specific gap in capacity data fluctuation, are used to verify the model and examine the experimental results in order to demonstrate the generalizability of the concept. The experiments demonstrate the network structure’s strong universality and ability to achieve good fitting outcomes on the test set for various battery dataset types. The evaluation metrics reveal that the CEEMDAN-TCN prediction performance of TCN is 25% to 35% better than that of a single neural network, proving that feature expansion and modal decomposition can both enhance the model’s generalizability and be extremely useful in industrial settings.

Keywords: lithium-ion battery, remaining useful life, complete EEMD with adaptive noise, temporal convolutional net

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Authors: Andres M. Tuates Jr., Ofero A. Caparino

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Plastics have achieved a dominant position in agriculture because of their transparency, lightness in weight, impermeability to water and their resistance to microbial attack. However, this generates a higher quantity of wastes that are difficult to dispose of by farmers. To address these problems, the project aim to develop and evaluate the biodegradable film for mango fruit bag during development. The PBS and starch were melt-blended in a twin-screw extruder and then blown into film extrusion machine. The physic-chemical-mechanical properties of biodegradable fruit bag were done following standard methods of test. Field testing of fruit bag was also conducted to evaluate its durability and efficiency field condition. The PHilMech-FiC fruit bag is made of biodegradable material measuring 6 x 8 inches with a thickness of 150 microns. The tensile strength is within the range of LDPE while the elongation is within the range of HDPE. It is projected that after thirty-six (36) weeks, the film will be totally degraded. Results of field testing show that the quality of harvested fruits using PHilMech-FiC biodegradable fruit bag in terms of percent marketable, non-marketable and export, peel color at the ripe stage, flesh color, TSS, oBrix, percent edible portion is comparable with the existing bagging materials such as Chinese brown paper bag and old newspaper.

Keywords: cassava starch, PBS, biodegradable, chemical, mechanical properties

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Authors: Habtamu Ayenew Asegie

Abstract:

Wealth, as opposed to income or consumption, implies a more stable and permanent status. Due to natural and human-made difficulties, households' economies will be diminished, and their well-being will fall into trouble. Hence, governments and humanitarian agencies offer considerable resources for poverty and malnutrition reduction efforts. One key factor in the effectiveness of such efforts is the accuracy with which low-income or poor populations can be identified. As a result, this study aims to predict a household’s wealth status using ensemble Machine learning (ML) algorithms. In this study, design science research methodology (DSRM) is employed, and four ML algorithms, Random Forest (RF), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Light Gradient Boosted Machine (LightGBM), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), have been used to train models. The Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) dataset is accessed for this purpose from the Central Statistical Agency (CSA)'s database. Various data pre-processing techniques were employed, and the model training has been conducted using the scikit learn Python library functions. Model evaluation is executed using various metrics like Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1-score, area under curve-the receiver operating characteristics (AUC-ROC), and subjective evaluations of domain experts. An optimal subset of hyper-parameters for the algorithms was selected through the grid search function for the best prediction. The RF model has performed better than the rest of the algorithms by achieving an accuracy of 96.06% and is better suited as a solution model for our purpose. Following RF, LightGBM, XGBoost, and AdaBoost algorithms have an accuracy of 91.53%, 88.44%, and 58.55%, respectively. The findings suggest that some of the features like ‘Age of household head’, ‘Total children ever born’ in a family, ‘Main roof material’ of their house, ‘Region’ they lived in, whether a household uses ‘Electricity’ or not, and ‘Type of toilet facility’ of a household are determinant factors to be a focal point for economic policymakers. The determinant risk factors, extracted rules, and designed artifact achieved 82.28% of the domain expert’s evaluation. Overall, the study shows ML techniques are effective in predicting the wealth status of households.

Keywords: ensemble machine learning, households wealth status, predictive model, wealth status prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 38