Search results for: prototype willingness model

Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad

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In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).

Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates

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Authors: Keerthi S. Shetty, Annappa Basava

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In recent years, modelling of biological systems represented by biochemical reactions has become increasingly important in Systems Biology. Biological systems represented by biochemical reactions are highly stochastic in nature. Probabilistic model is often used to describe such systems. One of the main challenges in Systems biology is to combine absolute experimental data into probabilistic model. This challenge arises because (1) some molecules may be present in relatively small quantities, (2) there is a switching between individual elements present in the system, and (3) the process is inherently stochastic on the level at which observations are made. In this paper, we describe a novel idea of combining absolute experimental data into probabilistic model using tool R2. Through a case study of the Transcription Process in Prokaryotes we explain how biological systems can be written as probabilistic program to combine experimental data into the model. The model developed is then analysed in terms of intrinsic noise and exact sampling of switching times between individual elements in the system. We have mainly concentrated on inferring number of genes in ON and OFF states from experimental data.

Keywords: systems biology, probabilistic model, inference, biology, model

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Authors: Elena Puica

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This paper aims to investigate the impact of Supply Chain Management (SCM) on the environment by applying a Machine Learning model while pointing out the efficiency of the technology used. The Machine Learning model was used to derive the efficiency and optimization of technology used in SCM and the environmental impact of SCM processes. The model applied is a predictive classification model and was trained firstly to determine which stage of the SCM has more outputs and secondly to demonstrate the efficiency of using advanced technology in SCM instead of recuring to traditional SCM. The outputs are the emissions generated in the environment, the consumption from different steps in the life cycle, the resulting pollutants/wastes emitted, and all the releases to air, land, and water. This manuscript presents an innovative approach to applying advanced technology in SCM and simultaneously studies the efficiency of technology and the SCM's impact on the environment. Identifying the conceptual relationships between SCM practices and their impact on the environment is a new contribution to the research. The authors can take a forward step in developing recent studies in SCM and its effects on the environment by applying technology.

Keywords: machine-learning model in SCM, SCM processes, SCM and the environmental impact, technology in SCM

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Authors: Ana Rahma Yuniarti, Ki Moo Lim

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Slowed myocardial conduction velocity (CV) and shortened action potential duration (APD) due to some reason are associated with an increased risk of re-entrant excitation, predisposing to cardiac arrhythmia. That is because both of CV reduction and APD shortening induces shortening of wavelength. In this study, we investigated quantitatively the cardiac mechanical responses under various CV and APD using multi-scale computational model of the heart. The model consisted of electrical model coupled with the mechanical contraction model together with a lumped model of the circulatory system. The electrical model consisted of 149.344 numbers of nodes and 183.993 numbers of elements of tetrahedral mesh, whereas the mechanical model consisted of 356 numbers of nodes and 172 numbers of elements of hexahedral mesh with hermite basis. We performed the electrical simulation with two scenarios: 1) by varying the CV values with constant APD and 2) by varying the APD values with constant CV. Then, we compared the electrical and mechanical responses for both scenarios. Our simulation showed that faster CV and longer APD induced largest resultants wavelength and generated better cardiac pumping efficacy by increasing the cardiac output and consuming less energy. This is due to the long wave propagation and faster conduction generated more synchronous contraction of whole ventricle.

Keywords: conduction velocity, action potential duration, mechanical contraction model, circulatory model

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Authors: Yungtai Lo

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The current study follows an educational intervention on bottle-weaning to simultaneously evaluate the effect of the bottle-weaning intervention on reducing bottle use, daily milk intake from bottles, and daily energy intake in toddlers aged 11 to 13 months. A shared parameter model and a random effects model are used to jointly model bottle use, daily milk intake from bottles, and daily energy intake. We show in the two joint models that the bottle-weaning intervention promotes bottleweaning, and reduces daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers not off bottles and daily energy intake. We also show that the odds of drinking from a bottle were positively associated with the amount of milk intake from bottles and increased daily milk intake from bottles was associated with increased daily energy intake. The effect of bottle use on daily energy intake is through its effect on increasing daily milk intake from bottles that in turn increases daily energy intake.

Keywords: two-part model, semi-continuous variable, joint model, gamma regression, shared parameter model, random effects model

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Authors: Norbayah Mohd Suki, Norazah Mohd Suki

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This study aims to examine relationships between attitude, self-efficacy, and subjective norm with students’ behavioural intention to use public computing facilities at a library. Data was collected from 200 undergraduate students enrolled at a higher learning institution in the Federal Territory of Labuan, Malaysia via a structured questionnaire comprising closed-ended questions. Data was analyzed using multiple regression analysis. The results show that students’ behavioural intention to use public computing facilities at the library is widely affected by subjective norm factor i.e. influence of the support of family members, friends and neighbours. The findings of this study provide a better understanding of factors likely to influence students’ behavioural intention to use public computing facilities at a library. It also offers valuable insights into factors which university librarians need to focus on to improve students’ behavioural intention to actively use public computing facilities at a library for quality information retrieval. Direction for future research is also presented.

Keywords: attitude, self-efficacy, subjective norm, behavioural intention

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Authors: T. M. Ismail, M. A. El-Salam

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A mathematical model study was carried out to investigate gasification of biomass fuels using high-temperature air and steam as a gasifying agent using high-temperature air up to 1000°C. In this study, a 2D computational fluid dynamics model was developed to study the gasification process in an updraft gasifier, considering drying, pyrolysis, combustion, and gasification reactions. The gas and solid phases were resolved using a Euler−Euler multiphase approach, with exchange terms for the momentum, mass, and energy. The standard k−ε turbulence model was used in the gas phase, and the particle phase was modeled using the kinetic theory of granular flow. The results show that the present model giving a promising way in its capability and sensitivity for the parameter effects that influence the gasification process.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, gasification, biomass fuel, fixed bed gasifier

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Authors: Dheyaa Wajid Abbood, Hanan Hussien Abood

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Stepped cascade has been utilized as a hydraulic structure for years. It has proven to be the least costly aeration system in replenishing dissolved oxygen. Numerical modeling of stepped cascade with end sill is very complicated and challenging because of the high roughness and velocity re circulation regions. Volume of fluid multiphase flow model (VOF) is used .The realizable k-ξ model is chosen to simulate turbulence. The computational results are compared with lab-scale stepped cascade data. The lab –scale model was constructed in the hydraulic laboratory, Al-Mustansiriya University, Iraq. The stepped cascade was 0.23 m wide and consisted of 3 steps each 0.2m high and 0.6 m long with variable end sill. The discharge was varied from 1 to 4 l/s. ANSYS has been employed to simulate the experimental data and their related results. This study shows that ANSYS is able to predict results almost the same as experimental findings in some regions of the structure.

Keywords: stepped cascade weir, aeration, multiphase flow model, ansys

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Authors: R. Monteiro, A. Abarca

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Large scale seismic risk assessment has become increasingly popular to evaluate the physical vulnerability of a given region to seismic events, by putting together hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. This study, developed within the scope of the EU-funded project ITERATE (Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria), explains the steps and expected results for the development of an integrated seismic risk model for assessment of the vulnerability of residential buildings in Northern Algeria. For this purpose, the model foresees the consideration of an updated seismic hazard model, as well as ad-hoc exposure and physical vulnerability models for local residential buildings. The first results of this endeavor, such as the hazard model and a specific taxonomy to be used for the exposure and fragility components of the model are presented, using as starting point the province of Blida, in Algeria. Specific remarks and conclusions regarding the characteristics of the Northern Algerian in-built are then made based on these results.

Keywords: Northern Algeria, risk, seismic hazard, vulnerability

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Authors: Thitaporn Thoopputra, Tipaporn Pongmesa, Shuchuen Li

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Aims: To evaluate the application of non-invasive diabetes risk assessment tool in community pharmacy setting. Methods: Thai diabetes risk score was applied to assess individuals at risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Interactive computer-based risk screening (IT) and paper-based risk screening (PT) tools were applied. Participants aged over 25 years with no known diabetes were recruited in six participating pharmacies. Results: A total of 187 clients, mean aged (+SD) was 48.6 (+10.9) years. 35% were at high risk. The mean value of willingness-to-pay for the service fee in IT group was significantly higher than PT group (p=0.013). No significant difference observed for the satisfaction between groups. Conclusions: Non-invasive risk assessment tool, whether paper-based or computerized-based can be applied in community pharmacy to support the enhancing role of pharmacists in chronic disease management. Long term follow up is needed to determine the impact of its application in clinical, humanistic and economic outcomes.

Keywords: community pharmacy, intervention, prevention, risk assessment, type 2 diabetes

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Authors: M. Kharazmi, M. Zakeri, M. Packirisamy, J. Faraji

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Micro/Nanorobotics or manipulation of nanoparticles by Atomic Force Microscopic (AFM) is one of the most important solutions for controlling the movement of atoms, particles and micro/nano metrics components and assembling of them to design micro/nano-meter tools. Accurate modelling of manipulation requires identification of forces and mechanical knowledge in the Nanoscale which are different from macro world. Due to the importance of the adhesion forces and the interaction of surfaces at the nanoscale several friction models were presented. In this research, friction and normal forces that are applied on the AFM by using of the dynamic bending-torsion model of AFM are obtained based on Hurtado-Kim friction model (HK), Johnson-Kendall-Robert contact model (JKR) and Greenwood-Williamson roughness model (GW). Finally, the effect of standard deviation of asperities height on the normal load, friction force and friction coefficient are studied.

Keywords: atomic force microscopy, contact model, friction coefficient, Greenwood-Williamson model

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Authors: Pouya Molana, Zeinab Alimohammadi

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Determining wind wave characteristics is essential for implementing projects related to Coastal and Marine engineering such as designing coastal and marine structures, estimating sediment transport rates and coastal erosion rates in order to predict significant wave height (H_s), this study applies the third generation spectral wave model, Mike 21 SW, along with CEM model. For SW model calibration and verification, two data sets of meteorology and wave spectroscopy are used. The model was exposed to time-varying wind power and the results showed that difference ratio mean, standard deviation of difference ratio and correlation coefficient in SW model for H_s parameter are 1.102, 0.279 and 0.983, respectively. Whereas, the difference ratio mean, standard deviation and correlation coefficient in The Choice Experiment Method (CEM) for the same parameter are 0.869, 1.317 and 0.8359, respectively. Comparing these expected results it is revealed that the Choice Experiment Method CEM has more errors in comparison to MIKE 21 SW third generation spectral wave model and higher correlation coefficient does not necessarily mean higher accuracy.

Keywords: MIKE 21 SW, CEM method, significant wave height, difference ratio

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Authors: Sibel Celik, Hüseyin Ergin

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The paper aims to find the best volatility forecasting model for stock markets in Turkey. For this purpose, we compare performance of different volatility models-both traditional GARCH model and high frequency based volatility models- and conclude that both in pre-crisis and crisis period, the performance of high frequency based volatility models are better than traditional GARCH model. The findings of paper are important for policy makers, financial institutions and investors.

Keywords: volatility, GARCH model, realized volatility, high frequency data

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Authors: Ashley Wei-Ting Wang, Wen-Yau Hsu

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Objectives: The current study applies and expands the Tripartite Model to elaborate the link between non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) and suicidal behavior. We propose a structural model of NSSI and suicidal risk, in which negative affect (NA) predicts both anxiety and depression, positive affect (PA) predicts depression only, anxiety is linked to NSSI, and depression is linked to suicidal risk. Method: Four hundreds and eighty seven undergraduates participated. Data were collected by administering self-report questionnaires. We performed hierarchical regression and structural equation modeling to test the proposed structural model. Results: The results largely support the proposed structural model, with one exception: anxiety was strongly associated with NSSI and to a lesser extent with suicidal risk. Conclusions: We conclude that the co-occurrence of NSSI and suicidal risk is due to NA and anxiety, and suicidal risk can be differentiated by depression. Further theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Keywords: non-suicidal self-injury, suicidal risk, anxiety, depression, the tripartite model, hierarchical relationship

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Authors: Un-Hwan Park, Jun-Hyeok Heo, In-Sung Lee, Tae-Hyeon Oh, Dae-Gyu Park

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Nonwoven fabric such as an automobile interior material becomes consists of several material layers required for the sound-absorbing function. Because several material layers, many experimental tuning is required to achieve the target of sound absorption. Therefore, a lot of time and money is spent in the development of the car interior materials. In this study, we present the method to predict the sound-absorbing performance of the various layers with physical properties of each material. and we will verify it with the measured value of a prototype. If the sound absorption can be estimated, it can be optimized without a number of tuning tests of the interiors. So, it can reduce the development cost and time during development

Keywords: automotive interior material, sound absorbing, optimization design, nonwoven fabric

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Authors: Shih-Kuei Lin

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The characterization of the arbitrage-free dynamics of interest rates is developed in this study under the presence of Markov jump risks, when the term structure of the interest rates is modeled through simple forward rates. We consider Markov jump risks by allowing randomness in jump sizes, independence between jump sizes and jump times. The Markov jump diffusion model is used to capture empirical phenomena and to accurately describe interest jump risks in a financial market. We derive the arbitrage-free model of simple forward rates under the spot measure. Moreover, the analytical pricing formulas for a cap and a floor are derived under the forward measure when the jump size follows a lognormal distribution. In our empirical analysis, we find that the LIBOR market model with Markov jump risk better accounts for changes from/to different states and different rates.

Keywords: arbitrage-free, cap and floor, Markov jump diffusion model, simple forward rate model, volatility smile, EM algorithm

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Authors: Christopher Godwin Udomboso, Angela Unna Chukwu, Isaac Kwame Dontwi

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In selecting a Statistical Neural Network model, the Network Information Criterion (NIC) has been observed to be sample biased, because it does not account for sample sizes. The selection of a model from a set of fitted candidate models requires objective data-driven criteria. In this paper, we derived and investigated the Adjusted Network Information Criterion (ANIC), based on Kullback’s symmetric divergence, which has been designed to be an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the expected Kullback-Leibler information of a fitted model. The analyses show that on a general note, the ANIC improves model selection in more sample sizes than does the NIC.

Keywords: statistical neural network, network information criterion, adjusted network, information criterion, transfer function

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Authors: J. Fernandez, N. Aguilar, R. Fernandez de Canete, J. C. Ramos-Diaz

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In this paper, a simulation model of the glucose-insulin system for a patient undergoing diabetes Type 1 is developed by using a causal modeling approach under system dynamics. The OpenModelica simulation environment has been employed to build the so called causal model, while the glucose-insulin model parameters were adjusted to fit recorded mean data of a diabetic patient database. Model results under different conditions of a three-meal glucose and exogenous insulin ingestion patterns have been obtained. This simulation model can be useful to evaluate glucose-insulin performance in several circumstances, including insulin infusion algorithms in open-loop and decision support systems in closed-loop.

Keywords: causal modeling, diabetes, glucose-insulin system, diabetes, causal modeling, OpenModelica software

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Authors: Viktorija Voidogaitė

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Catholic education is based on the belief that every human being is created in the image and likeness of God. It is also influenced by the idea that the Kingdom of Heaven belongs to the humble and vulnerable. These principles emphasize the importance of serving the most vulnerable members of the Church community and promoting inclusivity without discrimination. This perspective emphasizes the need to protect the weakest members with compassion. However, realizing such an ideal in practice proves challenging, as the shortcomings and errors prevalent in any society often stem from the actions of Christians within that society. The evolution of these connections is observed throughout the historical development of Catholic education. In some European countries, Catholic education has become elitist, with limited room for inclusivity. This creates a conspicuous gap between the principles of the Evangelical community and elite Catholic schools and gymnasiums. Some schools appear to be most inclined to educate only those students who best align with their profile, leaving those needing assistance on the margins. As we advance into the third decade of the 21st century, there emerges a fundamental consideration: whether individuals who can assist the underprivileged and the infirm are being emphasized. Yet, it remains an open question whether these individuals will also possess the willingness and capability to construct a community or society that is inclusive and accessible to all.

Keywords: inclusion, Catholic education, inclusive education, becoming

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Authors: Tareq Oshan

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Facility location and size decisions are important to any company because they affect profitability and success. However, warehouses are exposed to various risks of failure that affect their activity. This paper presents a mixed-integer non-linear mathematical model that can be used to determine optimal warehouse locations and sizes, which warehouses to fortify, and which branches should be assigned to specific warehouses when there is a risk of warehouse failure. Every branch is assigned to a fortified primary warehouse or a nonfortified primary warehouse and a fortified backup warehouse. The standard method and an introduced method, based on the average probabilities, for linearizing this mathematical model were used. A Canadian case study was used to demonstrate the developed mathematical model, followed by some sensitivity analysis.

Keywords: supply chain network design, fortified warehouse, mixed-integer mathematical model, warehouse failure risk

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Authors: Ahmed A.D. Sarhan, Chong Feng Duan, Mum Wai Yip, M. Sayuti

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Rapid Prototyping (RP) technologies enable physical parts to be produced from various materials without depending on the conventional tooling. Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM) is one of the famous RP processes used at present. Tensile strength and compressive strength resistance will be identified for different sample structures and different layer orientations of ABS rapid prototype solid models. The samples will be fabricated by a FDM rapid prototyping machine in different layer orientations with variations in internal geometrical structure. The 0° orientation where layers were deposited along the length of the samples displayed superior strength and impact resistance over all the other orientations. The anisotropic properties were probably caused by weak interlayer bonding and interlayer porosity.

Keywords: building orientation, compression strength, rapid prototyping, tensile strength

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Authors: K. M. Anusha, R. Krishnaveni

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Crossing a decade of the 21st century, the paradigm of human resources can be seen evolving with the strategic gene induced into it. There seems to be a radical shift descending as the corporate sector calls on its HR team to become strategic rather than administrative. This transferal eventually requires the metrics employed by these HR teams not to be just operationally reactive but to be aligned to an evidence-based strategic thinking. Realizing the growing need for a prescriptive metric model for effective HR analytics, this study has designed a conceptual framework for a basic metric model that can assist IT-HRM professionals to transition to a practice of evidence-based decision-making to enhance organizational performance.

Keywords: metric model, evidence based HR, HR analytics, strategic HR practices, IT sector

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Authors: Nikolaos Reppas, Yilin Gui

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A dual-porosity finite element-code will be presented for the stability analysis of the wellbore during CO₂ injection. An elastoplastic damage response will be considered to the model. The Finite Element Method (FEM) will be validated using experimental results from literature or from experiments that are planned to be undertaken at Newcastle University. The main target of the research paper is to present a constitutive model that can help industries to safely store CO₂ in geological rock formations and forecast any changes on the surrounding rock of the wellbore. The fully coupled elastoplastic damage Thermo-Hydraulic-Mechanical (THM) model will determine the pressure and temperature of the injected CO₂ as well as the size of the radius of the wellbore that can make the Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) procedure more efficient.

Keywords: carbon capture and storage, Wellbore stability, elastoplastic damage response for rock, constitutive THM model, fully coupled thermo-hydraulic-mechanical model

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Authors: N. Guo, C. Xu, Z. C. Yang

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In order to ensure the high reliability of an aircraft, the accurate structural dynamics analysis has become an indispensable part in the design of an aircraft structure. Therefore, the structural finite element model which can be used to accurately calculate the structural dynamics and their transfer relations is the prerequisite in structural dynamic design. A dynamic finite element model updating method is presented to correct the uncertain parameters of the finite element model of a structure using measured modal parameters. The coordinate modal assurance criterion is used to evaluate the correlation level at each coordinate over the experimental and the analytical mode shapes. Then, the weighted summation of the natural frequency residual and the coordinate modal assurance criterion residual is used as the objective function. Moreover, the hybrid pattern search (HPS) optimization technique, which synthesizes the advantages of pattern search (PS) optimization technique and genetic algorithm (GA), is introduced to solve the dynamic FE model updating problem. A numerical simulation and a model updating experiment for GARTEUR aircraft model are performed to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the present dynamic model updating method, respectively. The updated results show that the proposed method can be successfully used to modify the incorrect parameters with good robustness.

Keywords: model updating, modal parameter, coordinate modal assurance criterion, hybrid genetic/pattern search

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Authors: Jin Sung Kim, Hoon Huh

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The material properties of OFHC copper film was investigated with the High-Speed Material Micro Testing Machine (HSMMTM) at the high strain rates. The rate-dependent stress-strain curves from the experiment and the Johnson-Cook curve fitting showed large discrepancies as the plastic strain increases since the constitutive model implies no rate-dependent strain hardening effect. A new constitutive model was proposed in consideration of rate-dependent strain hardening effect. The strain rate hardening term in the new constitutive model consists of the strain rate sensitivity coefficients of the yield strength and strain hardening.

Keywords: rate dependent material properties, dynamic constitutive model, OFHC copper film, strain rate

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

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Risk management in banking sector is a key issue linked to financial system stability and its importance has been elevated by technological developments and emergence of new financial instruments. In this paper, we improve the model previously defined for quantifying internal control impact on banking risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA. For this, we defined three equations and a maturity coefficient to obtain a mathematical model which is tested on all banking processes and type of risks. The new model allows an optimal assessment of residual criticality and improves the correlation rate that has become 98%.

Keywords: risk, control, banking, FMECA, criticality

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Authors: Fernando P. Silva, Valter J. S. Leite, Erivelton G. Nepomuceno

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In this paper, a nonlinear controller design for an omnidirectional mobile is presented. The robot controller consists of an inner-loop controller and an outer-loop controller, the first is designed using state feedback (robust allocation) and the second controller is designed based on Robust Multi Inversion (RMI) approach. The objective of RMI controller is rendering the robust inversion of the dynamic, when the model is affected by uncertainties. A model nonlinear MIMO of an omni-directional robot (small-league of Robocup) is used to simulate the RMI approach. The parameters of linear and nonlinear model are varied to cause modelling uncertainties among the model and the real model (real system) generating an error in inner-loop controller signal that must be compensated by RMI controller. The simulation test results show that the RMI is capable of compensating the uncertainties and keep the system stable and controlled under uncertainties.

Keywords: robust multi inversion, omni-directional robot, robocup, nonlinear control

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Authors: Farzad Khajavi, Farzaneh Jalilfar, Faranak Jafari, Leila Shokrani

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Formulation of gliclazide in the form of extended-release tablet in 30 and 60 mg dosage forms was performed using hypromellose (HPMC K4M) as a retarding agent. Drug-release profiles were investigated in comparison with references Diamicron MR 30 and 60 mg tablets. The effect of size of powder particles, the amount of hypromellose in formulation, hardness of tablets, and also the effect of halving the tablets were investigated on drug release profile. A mathematical model which describes hypromellose behavior in initial times of drug release was proposed for the estimation of hypromellose content in modified-release gliclazide 60 mg tablet. This model is based on erosion of hypromellose in dissolution media. The model is applicable to describe release profiles of insoluble drugs. Therefore, by using dissolved amount of drug in initial times of dissolution and the model, the amount of hypromellose in formulation can be predictable. The model was used to predict the HPMC K4M content in modified-release gliclazide 30 mg and extended-release quetiapine 200 mg tablets.

Keywords: Gliclazide, hypromellose, drug release, modified-release tablet, mathematical model

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Authors: Rafael Muñoz, Juan Melchor, Alicia Valera, Laura Peralta, Guillermo Rus

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A torsional piezoelectric ultrasonic transducer design is proposed to measure shear moduli in soft tissue with direct access availability, using shear wave elastography technique. The measurement of shear moduli of tissues is a challenging problem, mainly derived from a) the difficulty of isolating a pure shear wave, given the interference of multiple waves of different types (P, S, even guided) emitted by the transducers and reflected in geometric boundaries, and b) the highly attenuating nature of soft tissular materials. An immediate application, overcoming these drawbacks, is the measurement of changes in cervix stiffness to estimate the gestational age at delivery. The design has been optimized using a finite element model (FEM) and a semi-analytical estimator of the probability of detection (POD) to determine a suitable geometry, materials and generated waves. The technique is based on the time of flight measurement between emitter and receiver, to infer shear wave velocity. Current research is centered in prototype testing and validation. The geometric optimization of the transducer was able to annihilate the compressional wave emission, generating a quite pure shear torsional wave. Currently, mechanical and electromagnetic coupling between emitter and receiver signals are being the research focus. Conclusions: the design overcomes the main described problems. The almost pure shear torsional wave along with the short time of flight avoids the possibility of multiple wave interference. This short propagation distance reduce the effect of attenuation, and allow the emission of very low energies assuring a good biological security for human use.

Keywords: cervix ripening, preterm birth, shear modulus, shear wave elastography, soft tissue, torsional wave

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Authors: Salima Kerai, Muhammad Islam, Uzma Khan, Nargis Asad, Junaid Razzak, Omrana Pasha

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Background: Pre-hospital care providers are exposed to various kinds of stressors. Their daily exposure to diverse critical and traumatic incidents can lead to stress reactions like Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). Consequences of PTSD in terms of work loss can be catastrophic because of its compound effect on families, which affect them economically, socially and emotionally. Therefore, it is critical to assess the association between PTSD and Work performance in Emergency Medical Service (EMS) if exist any. Methods: This prospective observational study was carried out at AMAN EMS in Karachi, Pakistan. EMS personnel were screened for potential PTSD using impact of event scale-revised (IES-R). Work performance was assessed on basis of five variables; number of late arrivals to work, number of days absent, number of days sick, adherence to protocol and patient satisfaction survey over the period of 3 months. In order to model outcomes like number of late arrivals to work, days absent and days late; negative binomial regression was used whereas logistic regression was applied for adherence to protocol and linear for patient satisfaction scores. Results: Out of 536 EMS personnel, 525 were found to be eligible, of them 518 consented. However data on 507 were included because 7 left the job during study period. The mean score of PTSD was found to be 24.0 ± 12.2. However, weak and insignificant association was found between PTSD and work performance measures: number of late arrivals (RRadj 0.99; 95% CI 0.98-1.00), days absent (RRadj 0.98; 95% CI 0.96-0.99), days sick (Rradj 0.99; 95% CI 0.98 to 1.00), adherence to protocol (ORadj 1.01: 95% CI 0.99 to 1.04) and patient satisfaction (0.001% score; 95% CI -0.03% to 0.03%). Conclusion: No association was found between PTSD and Work performance in the selected EMS population in Karachi Pakistan. Further studies are needed to explore the phenomenon of resiliency in these populations. Moreover, qualitative work is required to explore perceptions and feelings like willingness to go to work, readiness to carry out job responsibilities.

Keywords: trauma, emergency medical service, stress, pakistan

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