Search results for: correction factors for axisymmetric models

Authors: Babak Darvish Rouhani, Mohd Nazri Mahrin, Fatemeh Nikpay, Pourya Nikfard, Maryam Khanian Najafabadi

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Enterprise Architecture (EA) is a strategy that is employed by enterprises in order to align their business and Information Technology (IT). EA is managed, developed, and maintained through Enterprise Architecture Implementation Methodology (EAIM). The effectiveness of EA implementation is the degree in which EA helps to achieve the collective goals of the organization. This paper analyzes the results of a survey that aims to explore the factors that affect the effectiveness of EAIM and specifically the relationship between factors and effectiveness of the output and functionality of EA project. The exploratory factor analysis highlights a specific set of five factors: alignment, adaptiveness, support, binding, and innovation. The regression analysis shows that there is a statistically significant and positive relationship between each of the five factors and the effectiveness of EAIM. Consistent with theory and practice, the most prominent factor for developing an effective EAIM is innovation. The findings contribute to the measuring the effectiveness of EA implementation project by providing an indication of the measurement implementation approaches which is used by the Enterprise Architects, and developing an effective EAIM.

Keywords: enterprise architecture, enterprise architecture implementation methodology, implementation methodology, factors, EA, effectiveness

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Authors: Gayatri Ghosh

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In this work, a flavour theory of a neutrino mass model based on A_4 symmetry is considered to explain the phenomenology of neutrino mixing. The spontaneous symmetry breaking of A_4 symmetry in this model leads to tribimaximal mixing in the neutrino sector at a leading order. We consider the effect of Z_2 × Z_2 invariant perturbations in neutrino sector and find the allowed region of correction terms in the perturbation matrix that is consistent with 3σ ranges of the experimental values of the mixing angles. We study the entanglement of this formalism on the other phenomenological observables, such as δ_CP phase, the neutrino oscillation probability P(νµ → νe), the effective Majorana mass |mee| and |meff νe |. A Z_2 × Z_2 invariant perturbations in this model is introduced in the neutrino sector which leads to testable predictions of θ_13 and CP violation. By changing the magnitudes of perturbations in neutrino sector, one can generate viable values of δ_CP and neutrino oscillation parameters. Next we investigate the feasibility of charged lepton flavour violation in type-I seesaw models with leptonic flavour symmetries at high energy that leads to tribimaximal neutrino mixing. We consider an effective theory with an A_4 × Z_2 × Z_2 symmetry, which after spontaneous symmetry breaking at high scale which is much higher than the electroweak scale leads to charged lepton flavour violation processes once the heavy Majorana neutrino mass degeneracy is lifted either by renormalization group effects or by a soft breaking of the A_4 symmetry. In this context the implications for charged lepton flavour violation processes like µ → eγ, τ → eγ, τ → µγ are discussed.

Keywords: Z2 × Z2 invariant perturbations, CLFV, delta CP phase, tribimaximal neutrino mixing

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Authors: L. Grinis

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Turbulent flow in complex geometries receives considerable attention due to its importance in many engineering applications. It has been the subject of interest for many researchers. Some of these interests include the design of storm water channels. The design of these channels requires testing through physical models. The main practical limitation of physical models is the so called “scale effect”, that is, the fact that in many cases only primary physical mechanisms can be correctly represented, while secondary mechanisms are often distorted. These observations form the basis of our study, which centered on problems associated with the design of storm water channels near the Dead Sea, in Israel. To help reach a final design decision we used different physical models. Our research showed good coincidence with the results of laboratory tests and theoretical calculations, and allowed us to study different effects of fluid flow in an open channel. We determined that problems of this nature cannot be solved only by means of theoretical calculation and computer simulation. This study demonstrates the use of physical models to help resolve very complicated problems of fluid flow through baffles and similar structures. The study applies these models and observations to different construction and multiphase water flows, among them, those that include sand and stone particles, a significant attempt to bring to the testing laboratory a closer association with reality.

Keywords: open channel, physical modeling, baffles, turbulent flow

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Authors: L. J. de Bessa Neto, V. S. Filho, J. V. Ferreira Nunes, G. C. Bergamo

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There are many situations in which human activities have significant effects on the environment. Damage to the ozone layer is one of them. The objective of this work is to use the Least Squares Method, considering the linear, exponential, logarithmic, power and polynomial models of the second degree, to analyze through the coefficient of determination (R²), which model best fits the behavior of the chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b) in parts per trillion between 1992 and 2018, as well as estimates of future concentrations between 5 and 10 periods, i.e. the concentration of this pollutant in the years 2023 and 2028 in each of the adjustments. A total of 809 observations of the concentration of HCFC-142b in one of the monitoring stations of gases precursors of the deterioration of the ozone layer during the period of time studied were selected and, using these data, the statistical software Excel was used for make the scatter plots of each of the adjustment models. With the development of the present study, it was observed that the logarithmic fit was the model that best fit the data set, since besides having a significant R² its adjusted curve was compatible with the natural trend curve of the phenomenon.

Keywords: chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b), ozone, least squares method, regression models

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Byeongcheol Kang, Junyi Kim, Hyungsik Jung, Hyungjun Yang, Jaewoo An, Jonggeun Choe

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It is important to figure out reservoir properties for better production management. Due to the limited information, there are geological uncertainties on very heterogeneous or channel reservoir. One of the solutions is to generate multiple equi-probable realizations using geostatistical methods. However, some models have wrong properties, which need to be excluded for simulation efficiency and reliability. We propose a novel method of model selection scheme, based on distance-based clustering for reliable application of production optimization algorithm. Distance is defined as a degree of dissimilarity between the data. We calculate Hausdorff distance to classify the models based on their similarity. Hausdorff distance is useful for shape matching of the reservoir models. We use multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) to describe the models on two dimensional space and group them by K-means clustering. Rather than simulating all models, we choose one representative model from each cluster and find out the best model, which has the similar production rates with the true values. From the process, we can select good reservoir models near the best model with high confidence. We make 100 channel reservoir models using single normal equation simulation (SNESIM). Since oil and gas prefer to flow through the sand facies, it is critical to characterize pattern and connectivity of the channels in the reservoir. After calculating Hausdorff distances and projecting the models by MDS, we can see that the models assemble depending on their channel patterns. These channel distributions affect operation controls of each production well so that the model selection scheme improves management optimization process. We use one of useful global search algorithms, particle swarm optimization (PSO), for our production optimization. PSO is good to find global optimum of objective function, but it takes too much time due to its usage of many particles and iterations. In addition, if we use multiple reservoir models, the simulation time for PSO will be soared. By using the proposed method, we can select good and reliable models that already matches production data. Considering geological uncertainty of the reservoir, we can get well-optimized production controls for maximum net present value. The proposed method shows one of novel solutions to select good cases among the various probabilities. The model selection schemes can be applied to not only production optimization but also history matching or other ensemble-based methods for efficient simulations.

Keywords: distance-based clustering, geological uncertainty, particle swarm optimization (PSO), production optimization

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, predictive density functions, quantile forecasting, quantile modelling

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Authors: Sima Radmanesh, Nahid Radmanesh, Mohsen Yaghmoor

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The presence of large number of active rival gas companies on Persian Gulf border necessitates the adaptation and implementation of effective employee retention strategies as well as implementation of promoting loyalty and belonging strategies of specialized staffs in the South Pars gas company. Hence, this study aims at assessing the amount of organizational loyalty and explaining the effect of institutional justice on organizational justice with regard to the role of mediator variables of spirituality in the work place and organizational trust. Therefore, through reviewing the related literature, the researchers achieve a conceptual model for the effect of these factors on organizational loyalty. To this end, this model was assessed and tested through questionnaires in South Pars gas company. The research method was descriptive and correlation-structural equation modeling. The findings of the study indicated a significant relationship between the concepts addressed in the research and conceptual models were confirmed. Finally, according to the results to improve effectiveness factors affecting organizational loyalty, recommendations are provided.

Keywords: organizational loyalty, organizational trust, organizational justice, organizational spirit, oil and gas company

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Authors: Agnieszka Misztal

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The popularity of the quality management system models continues to grow despite the transitional crisis in 2008. Their development is associated with the demands of the new requirements for entrepreneurs, such as risk analysis projects and more emphasis on supervision of outsourced processes. In parallel appropriate to focus attention on the selection of companies aspiring to quality management system. This is particularly important in the automotive supplier industry, where requirements transferred to the levels in the supply chain should be clear, transparent and fairly satisfied. The author has carried out series of researches aimed at finding the factors that allow for the effective implementation of the quality management system in automotive companies. The research was focused on four groups of companies: 1) manufacturing (parts and assemblies for the purpose of sale or for vehicle manufacturers), 2) service (repair and maintenance of the car), 3) services for the transport of goods or people, 4) commercial (auto parts and vehicles). Identified determinants were divided in two types of criteria into: internal and external, as well as: hard and soft. The article presents hard - technical factors that automotive company must meet in order to achieve the goal of the quality management system implementation.

Keywords: automotive industry, quality management system, automotive technology, automotive company

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Authors: Chokri Slim

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The objective of this research is attempting to respond to this question: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and statistical learning models in predicting credit risk management? A Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model was compared with neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and a Support vector regression (SVR). The population of this study includes 50 listed Banks in Tunis Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2000 to 2016. Firstly, we show the factors that have significant effect on the quality of loan portfolios of banks in Tunisia. Secondly, it attempts to establish that the systematic use of objective techniques and methods designed to apprehend and assess risk when considering applications for granting credit, has a positive effect on the quality of loan portfolios of banks and their future collectability. Finally, we will try to show that the bank governance has an impact on the choice of methods and techniques for analyzing and measuring the risks inherent in the banking business, including the risk of non-repayment. The results of empirical tests confirm our claims.

Keywords: credit risk management, multiple linear regression, principal components analysis, artificial neural networks, support vector machines

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Authors: Markou Vasiliki, Serdaris Panagiotis

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The consumer behavior and decision-making process of consumers is a process that is affected by the factor of uncertainty. The onslaught of the Covid 19 pandemic has changed the consumer decision-making process in many ways. This change can be seen both in the buying process (how and where they shop) but also in the types of goods and services they are looking for. In addition, due to the mainly economic uncertainty that came from this event, but also the effects on both society and the economy in general, new consumer behaviors were created. Traditional forms of shopping are no longer a primary choice, consumers have turned to digital channels such as e-commerce and social media to fulfill needs. The purpose of this particular article is to examine how much the consumer's decision-making process has been affected after the pandemic and if consumer behavior has changed. An online survey was conducted to examine the change in decision making. Essentially, the demographic factors that influence the decision-making process were examined, as well as the social and economic factors. The research is divided into two parts. The first part included a literature review of the research that has been carried out to identify the factors, and the second part where the empirical investigation was carried out using a questionnaire and was done electronically with the help of Google Forms. The questionnaire was divided into several sections. They included questions about consumer behavior, but mainly about how they make decisions today, whether those decisions have changed due to the pandemic, and whether those changes are permanent. Also, for decision-making, goods were divided into essential products, high-tech products, transactions with the state and others. Αbout 500 consumers aged between 18 and 75 participated in the research. The data was processed with both descriptive statistics and econometric models. The results showed that the consumer behavior and decision-making process has changed. Now consumers widely use the internet for shopping, consumer behaviors and consumer patterns have changed. Social and economic factors play an important role. Income, gender and other factors were found to be statistically significant. In addition, it is worth noting that the percentage who made purchases during the pandemic through the internet for the first time was remarkable and related to age. Essentially, the arrival of the pandemic caused uncertainty for individuals, mainly financial, and this affected the decision-making process. In addition, shopping through the internet is now the first choice, especially among young people, and it seems that it is about to become established.

Keywords: consumer behavior, decision making, COVID-19, Greece, behavior change

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Authors: Jefri Draup, Antoine Ambard, Chi-Toan Nguyen

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Zirconium alloys exhibit solid-state phase transformations under thermal loading. These can lead to a significant evolution of the microstructure and associated mechanical properties of materials used in nuclear fuel cladding structures. Therefore, the ability to capture effects of phase transformation on the material constitutive behavior is of interest during conditions of severe transient thermal loading. Whilst typical Avrami, or Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov (JMAK), type models for phase transformations have been shown to have a good correlation with the behavior of Zircaloy-4 under constant heating rates, the effects of variable and fast heating rates are not fully explored. The present study utilises the results of in-situ high energy synchrotron X-ray diffraction (SXRD) measurements in order to validate the phase transformation models for Zircaloy-4 under fast variable heating rates. These models are used to assess the performance of fuel cladding structures under loss of coolant accident (LOCA) scenarios. The results indicate that simple Avrami type models can provide a reasonable indication of the phase distribution in experimental test specimens under variable fast thermal loading. However, the accuracy of these models deteriorates under the faster heating regimes, i.e., 100Cs⁻¹. The studies highlight areas for improvement of simple Avrami type models, such as the inclusion of temperature rate dependence of the JMAK n-exponent.

Keywords: accident, fuel, modelling, zirconium

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Authors: Saif Obaid Alkaabi, Nabil Ayad

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Governments constantly seek to offer faster, more secure, efficient and effective services for their citizens. Recent changes and developments to communication services and technologies, mainly due the Internet, have led to immense improvements in the way governments of advanced countries carry out their interior operations Therefore, advances in e-government services have been broadly adopted and used in various developed countries, as well as being adapted to developing countries. The implementation of advances depends on the utilization of the most innovative structures of data techniques, mainly in web dependent applications, to enhance the main functions of governments. These functions, in turn, have spread to mobile and wireless techniques, generating a new advanced direction called m-government. This paper discusses a selection of available m-government applications and several business modules and frameworks in various fields. Practically, the m-government models, techniques and methods have become the improved version of e-government. M-government offers the potential for applications which will work better, providing citizens with services utilizing mobile communication and data models incorporating several government entities. Developing countries can benefit greatly from this innovation due to the fact that a large percentage of their population is young and can adapt to new technology and to the fact that mobile computing devices are more affordable. The use of models of mobile transactions encourages effective participation through the use of mobile portals by businesses, various organizations, and individual citizens. Although the application of m-government has great potential, it does have major limitations. The limitations include: the implementation of wireless networks and relative communications, the encouragement of mobile diffusion, the administration of complicated tasks concerning the protection of security (including the ability to offer privacy for information), and the management of the legal issues concerning mobile applications and the utilization of services.

Keywords: e-government, m-government, system dependability, system security, trust

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Authors: Yi-Min Lan, Hung-Wen Cheng, Hsuan-Ling Chang, Jou-Ping Yu

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The study applies machine learning models to construct momentum strategies and utilizes the information coefficient as an indicator for selecting stocks with strong and weak momentum characteristics. Through this approach, the study has built investment portfolios capable of generating superior returns and conducted a thorough analysis. Compared to existing research on momentum strategies, machine learning is incorporated to capture non-linear interactions. This approach enhances the conventional stock selection process, which is often impeded by difficulties associated with timeliness, accuracy, and efficiency due to market risk factors. The study finds that implementing bidirectional momentum strategies outperforms unidirectional ones, and momentum factors with longer observation periods exhibit stronger correlations with returns. Optimizing the number of stocks in the portfolio while staying within a certain threshold leads to the highest level of excess returns. The study presents a novel framework for momentum strategies that enhances and improves the operational aspects of asset management. By introducing innovative financial technology applications to traditional investment strategies, this paper can demonstrate significant effectiveness.

Keywords: information coefficient, machine learning, momentum, portfolio, return prediction

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Authors: Yong Bum Shin

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This case focuses on Weighted additive difference, Conjunctive, Disjunctive, and Elimination by aspects methodologies in consumer decision-making models and the Simple additive weighting (SAW) approach in the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) area. Most decision-making models illustrate that the rank reversal phenomenon is unpreventable. This paper presents that rank reversal occurs in popular managerial methods such as Weighted Additive Difference (WAD), Conjunctive Method, Disjunctive Method, Elimination by Aspects (EBA) and MCDM methods as well as such as the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) and finally Unified Commensurate Multiple (UCM) models which successfully addresses these rank reversal problems in most popular MCDM methods in decision-making area.

Keywords: multiple criteria decision making, rank inconsistency, unified commensurate multiple, analytic hierarchy process

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Authors: Maryam Maleki, Esther Mead, Mohammad Arani, Nitin Agarwal

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This study is conducted to examine how opposing viewpoints related to COVID-19 were diffused on Twitter. To accomplish this, six datasets using two epidemiological models, SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) and SEIZ (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Skeptics), were analyzed. The six datasets were chosen because they represent opposing viewpoints on the COVID-19 pandemic. Three of the datasets contain anti-subject hashtags, while the other three contain pro-subject hashtags. The time frame for all datasets is three years, starting from January 2020 to December 2022. The findings revealed that while both models were effective in evaluating the propagation trends of these polarizing viewpoints, the SEIZ model was more accurate with a relatively lower error rate (6.7%) compared to the SIR model (17.3%). Additionally, the relative error for both models was lower for anti-subject hashtags compared to pro-subject hashtags. By leveraging epidemiological models, insights into the propagation trends of polarizing viewpoints on Twitter were gained. This study paves the way for the development of methods to prevent the spread of ideas that lack scientific evidence while promoting the dissemination of scientifically backed ideas.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, epidemiological model, seiz model, sir model, covid-19, twitter, social network analysis, social contagion

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Authors: Areej Al-Hamad, Cheryl Forchuk, Abe Oudshoorn, Gerald Patrick Mckinley

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Syrian refugee women face many obstacles when accessing health services in host countries that are influenced by various cultural, structural, and practical factors. This paper is based on critical ethnographic research undertaken in Canada to explore Syrian refugee women's migration experiences. Also, we aim to critically examine how the intersection of gender, trauma, violence and the political and economic conditions of Syrian refugee women shapes their everyday lives and health. The study also investigates the strategies and practices by which Syrian refugee women are currently addressing their healthcare needs and the models of care that are suggested for meeting their physical and mental health needs. Findings show that these women experienced constant worries, hardship, vulnerability, and intrusion of dignity. These experiences and challenges were aggravated by the structure of the Canadian social and health care system. This study offers a better understanding of the impact of migration and trauma on Syrian refugee women's roles, responsibilities, gender dynamics, and interaction with Ontario's healthcare system to improve interaction and outcomes. Health care models should address these challenges among Syrian refugee families in Canada.

Keywords: Syrian refugee women, intersectionality, critical ethnography, migration

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Authors: Ramona Zharfpeykan, Paul Rouse

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Organizational sustainability is important to both organizations themselves and their stakeholders. Despite its increasing popularity and increasing numbers of organizations reporting sustainability, research on evaluating and comparing the sustainability performance of companies is limited. The aim of this study was to develop models to measure sustainability performance for both cross-sectional and longitudinal comparisons across companies in the same or different industries. A secondary aim was to see if sustainability reports can be used to evaluate sustainability performance. The study used both a content analysis of Australian sustainability reports in mining and metals and financial services for 2011-2014 and a survey of Australian and New Zealand organizations. Two methods ranging from a composite index using uniform weights to data envelopment analysis (DEA) were employed to analyze the data and develop the models. The results show strong statistically significant relationships between the developed models, which suggests that each model provides a consistent, systematic and reasonably robust analysis. The results of the models show that for both industries, companies that had sustainability scores above or below the industry average stayed almost the same during the study period. These indices and models can be used by companies to evaluate their sustainability performance and compare it with previous years, or with other companies in the same or different industries. These methods can also be used by various stakeholders and sustainability ranking companies such as the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI).

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, sustainability, sustainability performance measurement system, sustainability performance index, global reporting initiative

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Authors: Y. Baba, A. Archibong-Eso, H. Yeung

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Experimental study of high viscosity oil-gas flows in horizontal pipelines published in literature has indicated that hydrodynamic slug flow is the dominant flow pattern observed. Investigations have shown that hydrodynamic slugging brings about high instabilities in pressure that can damage production facilities thereby making it inherent to study high viscous slug flow regime so as to improve the understanding of its flow dynamics. Most slug flow models used in the petroleum industry for the design of pipelines together with their closure relationships were formulated based on observations of low viscosity liquid-gas flows. New experimental investigations and data are therefore required to validate these models. In cases where these models underperform, improving upon or building new predictive models and correlations will also depend on the new experimental dataset and further understanding of the flow dynamics in high viscous oil-gas flows. In this study conducted at the Flow laboratory, Oil and Gas Engineering Centre of Cranfield University, slug flow variables such as pressure gradient, mean liquid holdup, frequency and slug length for oil viscosity ranging from 1..0 – 5.5 Pa.s are experimentally investigated and analysed. The study was carried out in a 0.076m ID pipe, two fast sampling gamma densitometer and pressure transducers (differential and point) were used to obtain experimental measurements. Comparison of the measured slug flow parameters to the existing slug flow prediction models available in the literature showed disagreement with high viscosity experimental data thus highlighting the importance of building new predictive models and correlations.

Keywords: gamma densitometer, mean liquid holdup, pressure gradient, slug frequency and slug length

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Authors: Anisa Suraya Ab Razak, Izza Hayat

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Introduction: The diagnosis and management of severe hyponatremia in neuropsychiatric patients present a significant challenge to physicians. Several factors contribute, including diagnostic shadowing and attributing abnormal behavior to intellectual disability or psychiatric conditions. Hyponatraemia is the commonest electrolyte abnormality in the inpatient population, ranging from mild/asymptomatic, moderate to severe levels with life-threatening symptoms such as seizures, coma and death. There are several documented fatal case reports in the literature of severe hyponatremia secondary to psychogenic polydipsia, often diagnosed only in autopsy. This paper presents a case study of acute severe hyponatremia in a neuropsychiatric patient with early diagnosis and admission to intensive care. Case study: A 21-year old Caucasian male with known epilepsy and learning disability was admitted from residential living with generalized tonic-clonic self-terminating seizures after refusing medications for several weeks. Evidence of superficial head injury was detected on physical examination. His laboratory data demonstrated mild hyponatremia (125 mmol/L). Computed tomography imaging of his brain demonstrated no acute bleed or space-occupying lesion. He exhibited abnormal behavior - restlessness, drinking water from bathroom taps, inability to engage, paranoia, and hypersexuality. No collateral history was available to establish his baseline behavior. He was loaded with intravenous sodium valproate and leveritircaetam. Three hours later, he developed vomiting and a generalized tonic-clonic seizure lasting forty seconds. He remained drowsy for several hours and regained minimal recovery of consciousness. A repeat set of blood tests demonstrated profound hyponatremia (117 mmol/L). Outcomes: He was referred to intensive care for peripheral intravenous infusion of 2.7% sodium chloride solution with two-hourly laboratory monitoring of sodium concentration. Laboratory monitoring identified dangerously rapid correction of serum sodium concentration, and hypertonic saline was switched to a 5% dextrose solution to reduce the risk of acute large-volume fluid shifts from the cerebral intracellular compartment to the extracellular compartment. He underwent urethral catheterization and produced 8 liters of urine over 24 hours. Serum sodium concentration remained stable after 24 hours of correction fluids. His GCS recovered to baseline after 48 hours with improvement in behavior -he engaged with healthcare professionals, understood the importance of taking medications, admitted to illicit drug use and drinking massive amounts of water. He was transferred from high-dependency care to ward level and was initiated on multiple trials of anti-epileptics before achieving seizure-free days two weeks after resolution of acute hyponatremia. Conclusion: Psychogenic polydipsia is often found in young patients with intellectual disability or psychiatric disorders. Patients drink large volumes of water daily ranging from ten to forty liters, resulting in acute severe hyponatremia with mortality rates as high as 20%. Poor outcomes are due to challenges faced by physicians in making an early diagnosis and treating acute hyponatremia safely. A low index of suspicion of water intoxication is required in this population, including patients with known epilepsy. Monitoring urine output proved to be clinically effective in aiding diagnosis. Early referral and admission to intensive care should be considered for safe correction of sodium concentration while minimizing risk of fatal complications e.g. central pontine myelinolysis.

Keywords: epilepsy, psychogenic polydipsia, seizure, severe hyponatremia

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Authors: Tetsuji Tanaka, Jin Guo

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The extant literature has not succeeded in uncovering the common determinants of price volatility transmissions of agricultural commodities from international to local markets, and further, has rarely investigated the role of self-sufficiency measures in the context of national food security. We analyzed various factors to determine the degree of price volatility transmissions of wheat, rice, and maize between world and domestic markets using GARCH models with dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) specifications and panel-feasible generalized least square models. We found that the grain autarky system has the potential to diminish volatility pass-throughs for three grain commodities. Furthermore, it was discovered that the substitutive commodity consumption behavior between maize and wheat buffers the volatility transmissions of both, but rice does not function as a transmission-relieving element, either for the volatilities of wheat or maize. The effectiveness of grain consumption substitution to insulate the pass-throughs from global markets is greater than that of cereal self-sufficiency. These implications are extremely beneficial for developing governments to protect their domestic food markets from uncertainty in foreign countries and as such, improves food security.

Keywords: food security, GARCH, grain self-sufficiency, volatility transmission

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Authors: A. Latif Karimi, M. K. Shrimali

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Seismic design is a critical stage in the process of design and construction of a building. It includes strategies for designing earthquake-resistant buildings to ensure health, safety, and security of the building occupants and assets. Hence, it becomes very important to understand the behavior of structural members precisely, for construction of buildings that can yield a better response to seismic forces. This paper investigates the behavior of a typical structure when subjected to ground motion. The corresponding mode shapes and modal frequencies are studied to interpret the response of an actual structure using different fabricated models and 3D visual models. In this study, three different structural configurations are subjected to horizontal ground motion, and the effect of “stiffness eccentricity” and placement of infill walls are checked to determine how each parameter contributes in a building’s response to dynamic forces. The deformation data from lab experiments and the analysis on SAP2000 software are reviewed to obtain the results. This study revealed that seismic response in a building can be improved by introducing higher deformation capacity in the building. Also, proper design of infill walls and maintaining a symmetrical configuration in a building are the key factors in building stability during the earthquake.

Keywords: eccentricity, seismic response, mode shape, building configuration, building dynamics

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Authors: Myungjin Lee, Daegun Han, Jongsung Kim, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim

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Recently, the localized heavy rainfall and typhoons are frequently occurred due to the climate change and the damage is becoming bigger. Therefore, we may need a more accurate prediction of the rainfall and runoff. However, the gauge rainfall has the limited accuracy in space. Radar rainfall is better than gauge rainfall for the explanation of the spatial variability of rainfall but it is mostly underestimated with the uncertainty involved. Therefore, the ensemble of radar rainfall was simulated using error structure to overcome the uncertainty and gauge rainfall. The simulated ensemble was used as the input data of the rainfall-runoff models for obtaining the ensemble of runoff hydrographs. The previous studies discussed about the accuracy of the rainfall-runoff model. Even if the same input data such as rainfall is used for the runoff analysis using the models in the same basin, the models can have different results because of the uncertainty involved in the models. Therefore, we used two models of the SSARR model which is the lumped model, and the Vflo model which is a distributed model and tried to simulate the optimum runoff considering the uncertainty of each rainfall-runoff model. The study basin is located in Han river basin and we obtained one integrated runoff hydrograph which is an optimum runoff hydrograph using the blending methods such as Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Simple Model Average (SMA), Mean Square Error (MSE). From this study, we could confirm the accuracy of rainfall and rainfall-runoff model using ensemble scenario and various rainfall-runoff model and we can use this result to study flood control measure due to climate change. Acknowledgements: This work is supported by the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement(KAIA) grant funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (Grant 18AWMP-B083066-05).

Keywords: radar rainfall ensemble, rainfall-runoff models, blending method, optimum runoff hydrograph

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Authors: Seyed Mohammadbagher Jafari, Izmeera Shiham, Masoud Arianfar

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The increased usage of Social media for different uses in turn makes it important to develop an understanding of users and their attitudes toward these sites, and moreover, the uses of such sites in a broader perspective such as broadcasting. This quantitative study addressed the problem of factors influencing the adoption of social media as a medium of public service broadcasting in the Republic of Maldives. These powerful and increasingly usable tools, accompanied by large public social media datasets, are bringing in a golden age of social science by empowering researchers to measure social behavior on a scale never before possible. This was conducted by exploring social responses on the use of social media. Research model was developed based on the previous models such as TAM, DOI and Trust combined model. It evaluates the influence of perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, trust, complexity, compatibility and relative advantage influence on the adoption of social Media. The model was tested on a sample of 365 Maldivian people using survey method via questionnaire. The result showed that perceived usefulness, trust, relative advantage and complexity would highly influence the adoption of social media.

Keywords: adoption, broadcasting, maldives, social media

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Authors: Viriyavudh Sim, WooYoung Jung

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Damage due to high wind is not limited to load resistance components such as beam and column. The majority of damage is due to breach in the building envelope such as broken roof, window, and door. In this paper, wind fragility of window glass in residential apartment was determined to compare the difference between two window configuration models. Monte Carlo Simulation method had been used to derive damage data and analytical fragilities were constructed. Fragility of window system showed that window located in leeward wall had higher probability of failure, especially those close to the edge of structure. Between the two window models, Model 2 had higher probability of failure, this was due to the number of panel in this configuration.

Keywords: wind fragility, glass window, high rise building, wind disaster

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Authors: Mohammad Matin

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Nowadays, one of the basic problems of higher education is a significant decline in the quality of education and reduction in efficiency of training. These research and studies are aiming to assess affecting factors of the erosion of academic quality, including educational environmental and content, social and economic factors, elements of the training, elements of education, family factors, from the perspective of students. The result of such improper competition, totally, has led to the decline of education quality in higher education centers, and in many aspects. The results showed a significant difference between male and female students' perspective for two areas of social and economic factors.

Keywords: higher education, decline, the quality of education, student

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Authors: Flora Babongo, Valerie Chavez

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Inferring causality from observational data is one of the fundamental subjects, especially in quantitative finance. So far most of the papers analyze additive noise models with either linearity, nonlinearity or Gaussian noise. We fill in the gap by providing a nonlinear and non-gaussian causal multiplicative noise model that aims to distinguish the cause from the effect using a two steps method based on Bayesian additive models for location, scale and shape (BAMLSS) and on causal additive models (CAM). We have tested our method on simulated and real data and we reached an accuracy of 0.86 on average. As real data, we considered the causality between financial indices such as S&P 500, Nasdaq, CAC 40 and Nikkei, and companies' log-returns. Our results can be useful in inferring causality when the data is heteroskedastic or non-injective.

Keywords: causal inference, DAGs, BAMLSS, financial index

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Authors: Tallataf Rasheed, Adnan Rashdi, Ahmad Naeem Akhtar

Abstract:

The accurate spectrum sensing is a fundamental requirement of dynamic spectrum access for deployment of Cognitive Radio Network (CRN). To acheive this requirement a Reliability factors based Fuzzy Logic (RFL) Scheme for Spectrum Sensing has been proposed in this paper. Cognitive Radio User (CRU) predicts the presence or absence of Primary User (PU) using energy detector and calculates the Reliability factors which are SNR of sensing node, threshold of energy detector and decision difference of each node with other nodes in a cooperative spectrum sensing environment. Then the decision of energy detector is combined with Reliability factors of sensing node using Fuzzy Logic. These Reliability Factors used in RFL Scheme describes the reliability of decision made by a CRU to improve the local spectrum sensing. This Fuzzy combining scheme provides the accuracy of decision made by sensornode. The simulation results have shown that the proposed technique provide better PU detection probability than existing Spectrum Sensing Techniques.

Keywords: cognitive radio, spectrum sensing, energy detector, reliability factors, fuzzy logic

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Authors: Jamil Ahmed

Abstract:

Access control models aim to decide whether a user should be denied or granted access to the user‟s requested activity. Various access control models have been established and proposed. The most prominent of these models include role-based, attribute-based, policy based access control models as well as role-centric attribute based access control model. In this paper, a novel access control model is presented called “Role centric Attribute based Policy Driven Access Control (RAPDAC) model”. RAPDAC incorporates the concept of “policy” in the “role centric attribute based access control model”. It leverages the concept of "policy‟ by precisely combining the evaluation of conditions, attributes, permissions and roles in order to allow authorization access. This approach allows capturing the "access control policy‟ of a real time application in a well defined manner. RAPDAC model allows making access decision at much finer granularity as illustrated by the case study of a real time library information system.

Keywords: authorization, access control model, role based access control, attribute based access control

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Authors: Nadarajah I. Ramesh

Abstract:

Much of the research on stochastic point process models for rainfall has focused on Poisson cluster models constructed from either the Neyman-Scott or Bartlett-Lewis processes. The doubly stochastic Poisson process provides a rich class of point process models, especially for fine-scale rainfall modelling. This paper provides an account of recent development on this topic and presents the results based on some of the fine-scale rainfall models constructed from this class of stochastic point processes. Amongst the literature on stochastic models for rainfall, greater emphasis has been placed on modelling rainfall data recorded at hourly or daily aggregation levels. Stochastic models for sub-hourly rainfall are equally important, as there is a need to reproduce rainfall time series at fine temporal resolutions in some hydrological applications. For example, the study of climate change impacts on hydrology and water management initiatives requires the availability of data at fine temporal resolutions. One approach to generating such rainfall data relies on the combination of an hourly stochastic rainfall simulator, together with a disaggregator making use of downscaling techniques. Recent work on this topic adopted a different approach by developing specialist stochastic point process models for fine-scale rainfall aimed at generating synthetic precipitation time series directly from the proposed stochastic model. One strand of this approach focused on developing a class of doubly stochastic Poisson process (DSPP) models for fine-scale rainfall to analyse data collected in the form of rainfall bucket tip time series. In this context, the arrival pattern of rain gauge bucket tip times N(t) is viewed as a DSPP whose rate of occurrence varies according to an unobserved finite state irreducible Markov process X(t). Since the likelihood function of this process can be obtained, by conditioning on the underlying Markov process X(t), the models were fitted with maximum likelihood methods. The proposed models were applied directly to the raw data collected by tipping-bucket rain gauges, thus avoiding the need to convert tip-times to rainfall depths prior to fitting the models. One advantage of this approach was that the use of maximum likelihood methods enables a more straightforward estimation of parameter uncertainty and comparison of sub-models of interest. Another strand of this approach employed the DSPP model for the arrivals of rain cells and attached a pulse or a cluster of pulses to each rain cell. Different mechanisms for the pattern of the pulse process were used to construct variants of this model. We present the results of these models when they were fitted to hourly and sub-hourly rainfall data. The results of our analysis suggest that the proposed class of stochastic models is capable of reproducing the fine-scale structure of the rainfall process, and hence provides a useful tool in hydrological modelling.

Keywords: fine-scale rainfall, maximum likelihood, point process, stochastic model

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Authors: Layan Moussa, Darine Salam, Samir Mustapha

Abstract:

Heavy metal contamination in agricultural soils in Lebanon poses serious environmental and health problems. Intensive efforts are employed to improve existing quantification methods of heavy metals in contaminated environments since conventional detection techniques have shown to be time-consuming, tedious, and costly. The implication of hyperspectral remote sensing in this field is possible and promising. However, factors impacting the efficiency of hyperspectral imaging in detecting and quantifying heavy metals in agricultural soils were not thoroughly studied. This study proposes to assess the use of hyperspectral imaging for the detection of Ni in agricultural clay soil collected from the Bekaa Valley, a major agricultural area in Lebanon, under different contamination levels and soil moisture content. Soil samples were contaminated with Ni, with concentrations ranging from 150 mg/kg to 4000 mg/kg. On the other hand, soil with background contamination was subjected to increased moisture levels varying from 5 to 75%. Hyperspectral imaging was used to detect and quantify Ni contamination in the soil at different contamination levels and moisture content. IBM SPSS statistical software was used to develop models that predict the concentration of Ni and moisture content in agricultural soil. The models were constructed using linear regression algorithms. The spectral curves obtained reflected an inverse correlation between both Ni concentration and moisture content with respect to reflectance. On the other hand, the models developed resulted in high values of predicted R2 of 0.763 for Ni concentration and 0.854 for moisture content. Those predictions stated that Ni presence was well expressed near 2200 nm and that of moisture was at 1900 nm. The results from this study would allow us to define the potential of using the hyperspectral imaging (HSI) technique as a reliable and cost-effective alternative for heavy metal pollution detection in contaminated soils and soil moisture prediction.

Keywords: heavy metals, hyperspectral imaging, moisture content, soil contamination

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