Search results for: causal estimation

Authors: Zeinab Yazdanfar, Dilan Robert, Daniel Lester, S. Setunge

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Scour has been identified as the most common threat to bridge stability worldwide. Traditionally, scour around bridge piers is calculated using the empirical approaches that have considerable limitations and are difficult to generalize. The multi-physic nature of scouring which involves turbulent flow, soil mechanics and solid-fluid interactions cannot be captured by simple empirical equations developed based on limited laboratory data. These limitations can be overcome by direct numerical modeling of coupled hydro-mechanical scour process that provides a robust prediction of bridge scour and valuable insights into the scour process. Several numerical models have been proposed in the literature for bridge scour estimation including Eulerian flow models and coupled Euler-Lagrange models incorporating an empirical sediment transport description. However, the contact forces between particles and the flow-particle interaction haven’t been taken into consideration. Incorporating collisional and frictional forces between soil particles as well as the effect of flow-driven forces on particles will facilitate accurate modeling of the complex nature of scour. In this study, a coupled Computational Fluid Dynamics and Discrete Element Model (CFD-DEM) has been developed to simulate the scour process that directly models the hydro-mechanical interactions between the sediment particles and the flowing water. This approach obviates the need for an empirical description as the fundamental fluid-particle, and particle-particle interactions are fully resolved. The sediment bed is simulated as a dense pack of particles and the frictional and collisional forces between particles are calculated, whilst the turbulent fluid flow is modeled using a Reynolds Averaged Navier Stocks (RANS) approach. The CFD-DEM model is validated against experimental data in order to assess the reliability of the CFD-DEM model. The modeling results reveal the criticality of particle impact on the assessment of scour depth which, to the authors’ best knowledge, hasn’t been considered in previous studies. The results of this study open new perspectives to the scour depth and time assessment which is the key to manage the failure risk of bridge infrastructures.

Keywords: bridge scour, discrete element method, CFD-DEM model, multi-phase model

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Authors: Calvin Chiu, Samar Saade Needham

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The factors associated with the development of major depressive disorder (MDD) have been an ongoing area of concern within the field of psychopathology. Among parents, the rise in stress factors for individuals receiving less social support contributes to an increase in MDD cases. Understanding the causal aspects of MDD through the interworking of stress development within social support disparities provides critical insights into preventive measures for depressive symptoms. The present study seeks to assess the impact of social support on stress formation within MDD. Such that single parents lacking social support prompt an increase in stress formation, which proliferates the progression of MDD. Participants in this study were 450 ethnic minority mothers and fathers experiencing health inequities during pregnancy and early childhood. Perceived stress, social support, and depression are assessed by multi-item questionnaires that produce score ranges for general findings. Results indicated that lower social support scores resulted in higher depression scores, and higher perceived stress scores produced higher depression scores. Furthermore, single parents reported higher depression scores. These findings overlap with studies on paternal depression and suggest that MDD is a product of stress accumulation due to declining social support systems. Future studies may specify effective social support systems for decreasing stress accumulation in MDD formation in preventive strategies.

Keywords: major depressive disorder, stress formation, cognitive-behavioral outcomes, deficit-based behaviors

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Authors: Moh'd Alodat

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In this paper, we discuss the power function distribution and derive the maximum likelihood estimator of its parameter as well as the reliability parameter. We derive the large sample properties of the estimators based on the selective order statistic scheme. We conduct simulation studies to investigate the significance of the selective order statistic scheme in our setup and to compare the efficiency of the new proposed estimators.

Keywords: fisher information, maximum likelihood estimator, power function distribution, ranked set sampling, selective order statistics sampling

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Authors: Ahmet Y. Arabul, Ibrahim Senol, Fatma Keskin Arabul, Mustafa G. Aydeniz, Yasemin Oner, Gokhan Kalkan

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In the standards of IEC 60076-2 and IEC 60076-7, three different hot-spot temperature estimation methods are suggested. In this study, the algorithms which used in hot-spot temperature calculations are analyzed by comparing the algorithms with the results of an experimental set-up made by a Transformer Monitoring System (TMS) in use. In tested system, TMS uses only top oil temperature and load ratio for hot-spot temperature calculation. And also, it uses some constants from standards which are on agreed statements tables. During the tests, it came out that hot-spot temperature calculation method is just making a simple calculation and not uses significant all other variables that could affect the hot-spot temperature.

Keywords: Hot-spot temperature, monitoring system, power transformer, smart grid

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Authors: Qian Zhao, Shi-Qi Liu, Bo Guo, Zhi-Jun Cheng, Xiao-Yue Wu

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Cold standby redundancy is considered to be an effective mechanism for improving system reliability and is widely used in industrial engineering. However, because of the complexity of the reliability structure, there is little literature studying on the residual life of cold standby system consisting of complex components. In this paper, a simulation method is presented to predict the residual life of k-out-of-n cold standby system. In practical cases, failure information of a system is either unknown, partly unknown or completely known. Our proposed method is designed to deal with the three scenarios, respectively. Differences between the procedures are analyzed. Finally, numerical examples are used to validate the proposed simulation method.

Keywords: cold standby system, k-out-of-n, residual life, simulation sampling

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Authors: Priti S. Tidke, Chandragouda R. Patil

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The present study was designed to investigate the effect of Magnesia phosphorica, a biochemical medicine on urine screeing, biochemical, histopathological, and electron microscopic images in ethylene glycol induced nepholithiasis in rats.Male Wistar albino rats were divided into six groups and were orally administered saline once daily (IR-sham and IR-control) or Magnesia phosphorica 100 mg/kg twice daily for 24 days.The effect of various dilutions of biochemical Mag phos3x, 6x, 30x was determined on urine output by comparing the urine volume collected by keeping individual animals in metabolic cages. Calcium oxalate urolithiasis and hyperoxaluria in male Wistar rats was induced by oral administration of 0.75% Ethylene glycol p.o. daily for 24 days. Simultaneous administration of biochemical 3x, 6x, 30xMag phos (100mg/kg p.o. twice a day) along with ethylene glycol significantly decreased calcium oxalate, urea, creatinine, Calcium, Magnesium, Chloride, Phosphorus, Albumin, Alkaline Phosphatase content in urine compared with vehicle-treated control group.After the completion of treatment period animals were sacrificed, kidneys were removed and subjected to microscopic examination for possible stone formation. Histological estimation of kidney treated with biochemical Mag phos (3x, 6x, 30xMag phos 100 mg/kg, p.o.) along with ethylene glycol inhibited the growth of calculi and reduced the number of stones in kidney compared with control group. Biochemical Mag phos of 3x dilution and its crude equivalent also showed potent diuretic and antiurolithiatic activity in ethylene glycol induced urolithiasis. A significant decrease in the weight of stones was observed after treatment in animals which received biochemical Mag phos of 3x dilution and its crude equivalent in comparison with control groups. From this study, it can be proposed that the 3x dilution of biochemical Mag phos exhibits a significant inhibitory effect on crystal growth, with the improvement of kidney function and substantiates claims on the biological activity of twelve tissue remedies which can be proved scientifically through laboratory animal studies.

Keywords: Mag phos, Magnesia phosphorica, ciochemic medicine, urolithiasis, kidney stone, ethylene glycol

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Authors: Larry Audet

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Creativity is suddenly and fortunately a new educational focus in the United Arab Emirates and around the world. Yet still today many leaders of creativity are not sure how to introduce it to their teachers. It is impossible to simultaneously introduce every aspect of creativity into a work climate and reach any degree of organizational coherence. The number of alternatives to explore is so great; the information teachers need to learn is so vast, that even an approximation to including every concept and theory of creativity into the school organization is hard to conceive. Effective leaders of creativity need evidence-based and practical guidance for introducing and stimulating creativity in others. Machine learning models reveal new findings from KEYS Survey© data about teacher perceptions of stimulants and barriers to their individual and collective creativity. Findings from predictive and causal models provide leaders with a rational for decision-making when introducing creativity into their organization. Leaders should focus on management practices first. Analyses reveal that creative outcomes are more likely to occur when teachers perceive supportive management practices: providing teachers with challenging work that calls for their best efforts; allowing freedom and autonomy in their practice of work; allowing teachers to form creative work-groups; and, recognizing them for their efforts. Once management practices are in place, leaders should focus their efforts on modeling risk-taking, providing optimal amounts of preparation time, and evaluating teachers fairly.

Keywords: creativity, leadership, KEYS survey, teaching, work climate

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Authors: Mohammed Murtuza Soofi

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Purpose: Marketers and Researchers alike have simultaneously, yet in mutually exclusive instances, promote the use of humour by brands in their communication and gendering of brands, as both enhance brand equity and can generate positive attitudinal responses from customers. However, the gendering of brands comes with associated gendered stereotypical expectations. The current paper consolidates the long standing literature on gender role/stereotype theory and brand gender theories establishing a theoretical framework for understanding how gender-based stereotypes about humour can influence consumers’ attitudinal responses towards brands. Design/methodology/approach: Using parallel constrain satisfaction theory as domain theory to explain the highhandedness of stereotypes and gender stereotype theories (particularly around feminine use of humour), we explain why gender based stereotypes could constrain brand behaviors, and in turn, feminine brands get penalised for using witty, aggressive and self-enhancing humor. Findings: Extension of gender stereotypes to anthropomorphised brands will lead consumers to judge the use of negative humour by a feminine brand as less appropriate, which will trigger the causal chain of reduced sense of communal appropriateness and brand warmth which will result in a negative attitude towards the brand. Originality/value: Brand gendering being susceptible to gender based stereotypes, has very little attention in the literature and hence use of negative humour (stereotypical male behaviour), has never been studied in the context of gendered brands. It also helps understand to what extent stereotypes will impact attitudinal responses to the brand. Our work can help understand when heavily gendered brands can optimise the use of humour and when they can avoid it.

Keywords: brand femininity, brand gender, gender stereotypes, humour

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Authors: Somveer Singh, Vineet Kumar Singh

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We present a new model based on viscoelasticity for the Non-Newtonian fluids.We use a matrix formulated algorithm to approximate solutions of a class of partial integro-differential equations with the given initial and boundary conditions. Some numerical results are presented to simplify application of operational matrix formulation and reduce the computational cost. Convergence analysis, error estimation and numerical stability of the method are also investigated. Finally, some test examples are given to demonstrate accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method.

Keywords: Legendre Wavelets, operational matrices, partial integro-differential equation, viscoelasticity

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Authors: Nayera E. Hassan, Sahar A. El-Masry, Mones M. Abu Shady, Rokia A. El Banna, Muhammad Al-Tohamy, Mehrevan M. Abd El-Moniem, Mona Anwar

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Circulating oxidized LDL (ox-LDL) is associated with obesity, insulin resistance (HOMA), metabolic syndrome, and cardiovascular disease in adults. Little is known about relations in children. Aim: To assess association of ox-LDL with fat distribution and insulin resistance in a group of obese Egyptian children. Methods: Study is cross-sectional consisting of 68 obese children, with a mean age of 9.96 ± 1.32. Each underwent a complete physical examination; blood pressure (SBP, DBP) and anthropometric measurements (weight, height, BMI; waist, hip circumferences, waist/hip ratio), biochemical tests of fasting blood glucose (FBS), insulin levels; lipid profile (TC, LDL,HDL, TG) and ox-LDL; calculated HOMA. Sample was classified according to waist/hip ratio into: group I with and group II without central obesity. Results: ox-LDL showed significant positive correlation with LDL and TC in all groups of obesity. After adjustment for age and sex, significant positive correlation was detected between ox-LDL with SBP, DBP, TC, LDL, insulin, and HOMA in group II and with TC and FBS in group I. Insignificant association was detected between ox-LDL and other anthropometric parameters including BMI in any group of obese children (p > 0.05). Conclusions: ox-LDL, as a marker of oxidative stress is not correlated with BMI among all studied obese children (aged 6-12 years). Increased oxidative stress has causal effects on insulin resistance in obese children without central obesity and on fasting blood sugar in those with central obesity. These findings emphasize the importance of obesity during childhood and suggest that the metabolic complications of obesity and body fat distribution are detectable early in life.

Keywords: ox-LDL, obesity, insulin resistance, children

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Authors: Esmaeil Zabihi, Seyed Hossein Alavi

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The purpose of this study is a comparison of movement and physical fitness in athlete's male students in altitude and sea-level. The samples consist of 450 subjects in altitude and sea-level in Iran in years of 2013 which were selected randomly from the population. We investigated the effect of high altitude on the tests activity profile of youth high altitude and sea level residents. Methods 450 Sea Level (Mahmood Abad) and 450 Altitude-resident (Shahre-Kord) athlete students tests of physical fitness near sea level (-5 m) and in Altitude (2100 m). This study is Descriptive Research (causal-comparative research). The tests of physical fitness include pull-ups test, sit-ups test, agility test(4 9), 45 sprint test, 1600 m running, long jump, and flexibility test. For determining of different between the physical fitness of altitude and sea-level students was used t-test (P ≤ 0.05). The result of this study show that there is no significant difference between the average of pull-ups test, flexibility, 45 sprints, and agility (4 9) test of students in sea-level and altitude. But there is a significant difference between the average of sit-ups, 1600 m running and long jump in altitude. The students of altitude have higher power rather than sea-level. But the students of sea-level have stronger abdominal muscles and cardio-respiratory endurance rather than altitude. High altitude reduces the distance covered by youth athlete students during tests. Neither acclimatisation nor lifelong residence at high altitude protects against detrimental effects of altitude on tests activity profile.

Keywords: physical fitness, sea level, altitude areas, AAHPERD test

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Authors: Chechen Liao, Pui-Lai To, Yi-Hui Wang

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Recently location-based augmented reality games (LBS+AR) have become increasingly popular as a major form of entertainment. Location-based augmented reality games have provided a lot of opportunities for face-to-face interaction among players. Prior studies also indicate that the social side of location-based augmented reality games are one of the major reasons for players to engage in the games. However, the impact of the usage of location-based augmented reality games has not been well explored. The study examines how interpersonal interaction affects social capital and health through playing location-based augmented reality games. The study also investigates how social capital mediates the relationships between interpersonal interaction and health. The study uses survey method to collect data. Six-hundred forty-seven questionnaires are collected. Structural equation modeling is used to investigate the relationships among variables. The causal relationships between variables in the research model are tested. The results of the study indicated that four interpersonal attraction attributes, including ability, proximity, similarity, and familiarity, are identified by ways of factor analysis. Interpersonal attraction is important for location-based augmented reality game-players to develop bonding and bridging social capital. Bonding and bridging social capital have a positive impact on the mental and social health of game-players. The results of the study provide academic and practical implications for future growth of location-based augmented reality games.

Keywords: health, interpersonal interaction, location-based augmented reality games, social capital

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Authors: K. M. Shahunja, Peter D. Sly, Tahmina Begum, Tuhin Biswas, Abdullah Mamun

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Background: Various associations between different environmental exposures and asthma have been reported in different countries and populations. We aimed to investigate the associations between family, neighbourhood, and psychosocial environmental factors and asthma in Australia by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods: We analysed the primary research studies conducted in Australia across multiple databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, and Scopus, and published between 2000 and 2020. The reviews and analyses focused on the overall association of different environmental exposures with the development or exacerbation of asthma symptoms or asthma-related hospital visits. Quality-effect meta-analysis was done to estimate the pooled odds ratio for different environmental exposures for asthma symptoms. Findings: Among the 4,799 unique published articles found, 46 were included here for systematic review and 28 for meta-analysis. Our review found that psychosocial factors, including low socioeconomic condition, maternal depression, mental stress, ethnicity, and discrimination, are associated with asthma symptoms. Pooled analysis was conducted on family and neighbourhood environmental factors and revealed that environmental tobacco smoking (ETS) (OR 1·69, 95% CI 1·19–2.38), synthetic bedding (OR 1·91, 95% CI 1·48–2·47) and gas heaters (OR 1·40, 95% CI 1·12–1·76) had significant overall associations with asthma-symptoms in Australia. Conclusion: Although the studies were heterogeneous, both systematic review and meta-analysis found several psychosocial and family environmental exposures to be significantly associated with asthma symptoms. Further study to identify their causal relationship and modification may reduce asthma symptoms in the Australian population.

Keywords: asthma, Australia, environment, systematic review

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Authors: Neveen AlQasas, Daniel Johnson

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Membranes for water treatment are an established technology that attracts great attention due to its simplicity and cost effectiveness. However, membranes in operation suffer from the adverse effect of membrane fouling. Bio-fouling is a phenomenon that occurs at the water-membrane interface, and is a dynamic process that is initiated by the adsorption of dissolved organic material, including biomacromolecules, on the membrane surface. After initiation, attachment of microorganisms occurs, followed by biofilm growth. The biofilm blocks the pores of the membrane and consequently results in reducing the water flux. Moreover, the presence of a fouling layer can have a substantial impact on the membrane separation properties. Understanding the mechanism of the initiation phase of biofouling is a key point in eliminating the biofouling on membrane surfaces. The adhesion and attachment of different fouling materials is affected by the surface properties of the membrane materials. Therefore, surface properties of different polymeric materials had been studied in terms of their surface energies and Hansen solubility parameters (HSP). The difference between the combined HSP parameters (HSP distance) allows prediction of the affinity of two materials to each other. The possibilities of measuring the HSP of different polymer films via surface measurements, such as contact angle has been thoroughly investigated. Knowing the HSP of a membrane material and the HSP of a specific foulant, facilitate the estimation of the HSP distance between the two, and therefore the strength of attachment to the surface. Contact angle measurements using fourteen different solvents on five different polymeric films were carried out using the sessile drop method. Solvents were ranked as good or bad solvents using different ranking method and ranking was used to calculate the HSP of each polymeric film. Results clearly indicate the absence of a direct relation between contact angle values of each film and the HSP distance between each polymer film and the solvents used. Therefore, estimating HSP via contact angle alone is not sufficient. However, it was found if the surface tensions and viscosities of the used solvents are taken in to the account in the analysis of the contact angle values, a prediction of the HSP from contact angle measurements is possible. This was carried out via training of a neural network model. The trained neural network model has three inputs, contact angle value, surface tension and viscosity of solvent used. The model is able to predict the HSP distance between the used solvent and the tested polymer (material). The HSP distance prediction is further used to estimate the total and individual HSP parameters of each tested material. The results showed an accuracy of about 90% for all the five studied films

Keywords: surface characterization, hansen solubility parameter estimation, contact angle measurements, artificial neural network model, surface measurements

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Authors: Rui Teixeira, Alan O’Connor, Maria Nogal

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The statistical theory of extreme events is progressively a topic of growing interest in all the fields of science and engineering. The changes currently experienced by the world, economic and environmental, emphasized the importance of dealing with extreme occurrences with improved accuracy. When it comes to the design of offshore structures, particularly offshore wind turbines, the importance of efficiently characterizing extreme events is of major relevance. Extreme events are commonly characterized by extreme values theory. As an alternative, the accurate modeling of the tails of statistical distributions and the characterization of the low occurrence events can be achieved with the application of the Peak-Over-Threshold (POT) methodology. The POT methodology allows for a more refined fit of the statistical distribution by truncating the data with a minimum value of a predefined threshold u. For mathematically approximating the tail of the empirical statistical distribution the Generalised Pareto is widely used. Although, in the case of the exceedances of significant wave data (H_s) the 2 parameters Weibull and the Exponential distribution, which is a specific case of the Generalised Pareto distribution, are frequently used as an alternative. The Generalized Pareto, despite the existence of practical cases where it is applied, is not completely recognized as the adequate solution to model exceedances over a certain threshold u. References that set the Generalised Pareto distribution as a secondary solution in the case of significant wave data can be identified in the literature. In this framework, the current study intends to tackle the discussion of the application of statistical models to characterize exceedances of wave data. Comparison of the application of the Generalised Pareto, the 2 parameters Weibull and the Exponential distribution are presented for different values of the threshold u. Real wave data obtained in four buoys along the Irish coast was used in the comparative analysis. Results show that the application of the statistical distributions to characterize significant wave data needs to be addressed carefully and in each particular case one of the statistical models mentioned fits better the data than the others. Depending on the value of the threshold u different results are obtained. Other variables of the fit, as the number of points and the estimation of the model parameters, are analyzed and the respective conclusions were drawn. Some guidelines on the application of the POT method are presented. Modeling the tail of the distributions shows to be, for the present case, a highly non-linear task and, due to its growing importance, should be addressed carefully for an efficient estimation of very low occurrence events.

Keywords: extreme events, offshore structures, peak-over-threshold, significant wave data

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Authors: Sadam Alwadi

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Outlier values become a problem that frequently occurs in the data observation or recording process. Thus, the need for data imputation has become an essential matter. In this work, it will make use of the methods described in the prior work to detect the outlier values based on a collection of stock market data. In order to implement the detection and find some solutions that maybe helpful for investors, real closed price data were obtained from the Amman Stock Exchange (ASE). Tukey and Maximum Overlapping Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT) methods will be used to impute the detect the outlier values.

Keywords: outlier values, imputation, stock market data, detecting, estimation

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Authors: Amir Ikram, Faisal Ijaz, Qin Su

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The empirical study was undertaken to explore the determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) sector held by the commercial banks. Primary data was collected through well-structured survey questionnaire from credit analysts/bankers of 42 branches of 9 commercial banks, operating in the district of Lahore (Pakistan), for 2014-2015. Selective descriptive analysis and Pearson chi-square technique were used to illustrate and evaluate the significance of different variables affecting NPLs. Branch age, duration of the loan, and credit policy were found to be significant determinants of NPLs. The study proposes that bank-specific and SME-specific microeconomic variables directly influence NPLs, while macroeconomic factors act as intermediary variables. Framework exhibiting causal nexus of NPLs was also drawn on the basis of empirical findings. The results elaborate various origins of NPLs and suggest that they are primarily instigated by the loan sanctioning procedure of the financial institution. The paper also underlines the risk management practices adopted by the bank at branch level to averse the risk of loan default. Empirical investigation of bank-specific microeconomic factors of NPLs with respect to Pakistan’s economy is the novelty of the study. Broader strategic policy implications are provided for credit analysts and entrepreneurs.

Keywords: commercial banks, microeconomic factors, non-performing loans, small and medium enterprises

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Authors: Garry A. Einicke, Langford B. White

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This paper describes an optimum filter and smoother for recovering a Markov process message from noisy measurements. The developments follow from an equivalence between a state space model and a hidden Markov chain. The ensuing filter and smoother employ transition probability matrices and approximate probability distribution vectors. The properties of the optimum solutions are retained, namely, the estimates are unbiased and minimize the variance of the output estimation error, provided that the assumed parameter set are correct. Methods for estimating unknown parameters from noisy measurements are discussed. Signal recovery examples are described in which performance benefits are demonstrated at an increased calculation cost.

Keywords: optimal filtering, smoothing, Markov chains

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Authors: Bo Liu, Chi-Man Pun

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A novel technique for digital forgery detection by signal noise inconsistency is proposed in this paper. The forged area spliced from the other picture contains some features which may be inconsistent with the rest part of the image. Noise pattern and the level is a possible factor to reveal such inconsistency. To detect such noise discrepancies, the test picture is initially segmented into small pieces. The noise pattern and level of each segment are then estimated by using various filters. The noise features constructed in this step are utilized in energy-based graph cut to expose forged area in the final step. Experimental results show that our method provides a good illustration of regions with noise inconsistency in various scenarios.

Keywords: forgery detection, splicing forgery, noise estimation, noise

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Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

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This paper presents a study about a nonparametric regression model consisting of a smoothing spline method and a penalized spline regression method. We also compare the techniques used for estimation and prediction of nonparametric regression model. We tried both methods with crude oil prices in dollars per barrel and the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index. According to the results, it is concluded that smoothing spline method performs better than that of penalized spline regression method.

Keywords: nonparametric regression model, penalized spline regression method, smoothing spline method, Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)

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Authors: Aadita Chaudhury

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Since at least the early 2000s, DNA profiling has achieved a preeminent status in forensic investigations into criminal acts. While the criminal justice system has a long history of using forensic evidence and testing them through establish technoscientific means, the primacy of DNA in establishing 'truth' or reconstructing a series of events is unparalleled in the history of forensic science. This paper seeks to elucidate the ways in which DNA profiling has become the most authoritative instrument of 'truth' in criminal investigations, and how it is used in the legal process to ascertain culpability, create the notion of infallible evidence, and advance the search for justice. It is argued that DNA profiling has created a paradigm shift in how the legal system and the general public understands crime and culpability, but not without limitations. There are indications that even trace amounts of DNA evidence can point to causal links in a criminal investigation, however, there still remains many rooms to create confusion and doubt from empirical evidence within the narrative of crimes. Many of the shortcomings of DNA-based forensic investigations are explored and evaluated with regards to claims of the authority of biological evidence and implications for the public understanding of the elusive concepts of truth and justice in the present era. Public misinformation about the forensic analysis processes could produce doubt or faith in the judgements rooted in them, depending on other variables presented at the trial. A positivist understanding of forensic science that is shared by the majority of the population does not take into consideration that DNA evidence is far from definitive, and can be used to support any theories of culpability, to create doubt and to deflect blame.

Keywords: DNA profiling, epistemology of forensic science, philosophy of forensic science, sociology of scientific knowledge

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Authors: Kurniawan Adha, Wan Ismail Wan Yusoff, Luluan Almanna Lubis

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Preventing hazardous events during oil and gas operation is an important contribution of accurate pore pressure data. The availability of pore pressure data also contribute in reducing the operation cost. Suggested methods in pore pressure estimation were mostly complex by the many assumptions and hypothesis used. Basic properties which may have significant impact on estimation model are somehow being neglected. To date, most of pore pressure determinations are estimated by data model analysis and rarely include laboratory analysis, stratigraphy study or core check measurement. Basically, this study developed a model that might be applied to investigate the changes of pore pressure and effective stress due to hydrocarbon production. In general, this paper focused velocity model effect of pore pressure and effective stress changes due to hydrocarbon production with illustrated by changes in saturation. The core samples from Miri field from Sarawak Malaysia ware used in this study, where the formation consists of sandstone reservoir. The study area is divided into sixteen (16) layers and encompassed six facies (A-F) from the outcrop that is used for stratigraphy sequence model. The experimental work was firstly involving data collection through field study and developing stratigraphy sequence model based on outcrop study. Porosity and permeability measurements were then performed after samples were cut into 1.5 inch diameter core samples. Next, velocity was analyzed using SONIC OYO and AutoLab 500. Three (3) scenarios of saturation were also conducted to exhibit the production history of the samples used. Results from this study show the alterations of velocity for different saturation with different actions of effective stress and pore pressure. It was observed that sample with water saturation has the highest velocity while dry sample has the lowest value. In comparison with oil to samples with oil saturation, water saturated sample still leads with the highest value since water has higher fluid density than oil. Furthermore, water saturated sample exhibits velocity derived parameters, such as poisson’s ratio and P-wave velocity over S-wave velocity (Vp/Vs) The result shows that pore pressure value ware reduced due to the decreasing of fluid content. The decreasing of pore pressure result may soften the elastic mineral frame and have tendency to possess high velocity. The alteration of pore pressure by the changes in fluid content or saturation resulted in alteration of velocity value that has proportionate trend with the effective stress.

Keywords: pore pressure, effective stress, production, miri formation

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Authors: A. Brahma

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Analysis of deferred deformations of concrete under sustained load shows that the creep has a leading role on deferred deformations of concrete structures. Knowledge of the creep characteristics of concrete is a Necessary starting point in the design of structures for crack control. Such knowledge will enable the designer to estimate the probable deformation in pre-stressed concrete or reinforced and the appropriate steps can be taken in design to accommodate this movement. In this study, we propose a prediction model that involves the acting principal parameters on the deferred behaviour of concrete structures. For the estimation of the model parameters Levenberg-Marquardt method has proven very satisfactory. A confrontation between the experimental results and the predictions of models designed shows that it is well suited to describe the evolution of the creep of concrete structures.

Keywords: concrete structure, creep, modelling, prediction

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Authors: Arlett A. Rosado-Torres, Ismael Marino-Tapia

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Changes in benthic cover of coral dominated systems to macroalgae dominance are widely studied worldwide. Watershed pollutants are potentially as important as overfishing causing phase shift. In certain regions of the world most of the continental inputs are through submarine groundwater discharges (SGD), which can play a significant ecological role because the concentration of its nutrients is usually greater that the one found in surface seawater. These stressors have adversely affected coral reefs, particularly in the Caribbean. Measurements of benthic cover (with video tracing, through a Go Pro camera), reef roughness (acoustic estimates with an Acoustic Doppler Current Velocity profiler and a differential GPS), thermohaline conditions (conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) instrument) and nutrient measurements were taken in different sites in the reef lagoon of Puerto Morelos, Q. Roo, Mexico including those with influence of SGD and without it. The results suggest a link between SGD, macroalgae cover and structural complexity. Punctual water samples and data series from a CTD Diver confirm the presence of the SGD. On the site where the SGD is, the macroalgae cover is larger than in the other sites. To establish a causal link between this phase shift and SGD, the DELFT 3D hydrodynamic model (FLOW and WAVE modules) was performed under different environmental conditions and discharge magnitudes. The model was validated using measurements of oceanographic instruments anchored in the lagoon and forereef. The SGD is consistently favoring macroalgae populations and affecting structural complexity of the reef.

Keywords: hydrodynamic model, macroalgae, nutrients, phase shift

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Authors: Wanida Suwunniponth

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This research paper aimed to developing a causal relationship model of success factors of customer relationship management of tourism in Thailand and to investigating relationships among the potential factors that facilitate the success of customer relationship management (CRM). The research was conducted in both quantitative and qualitative methods, by utilizing both questionnaire and in-depth interview. The questionnaire was used in collecting the data from 250 management staff in the hotels located within Bangkok area. Sampling techniques used in this research included cluster sampling according to the service quality and simple random sampling. The data input was analyzed by use of descriptive analysis and System Equation Model (SEM). The research findings demonstrated important factors accentuated by most respondents towards the success of CRM, which were organization, people, information technology and the process of CRM. Moreover, the customer relationship management of tourism business in Thailand was found to be successful at a very significant level. The hypothesis testing showed that the hypothesis was accepted, as the factors concerning with organization, people and information technology played an influence on the process and the success of customer relationship management, whereas the process of customer relationship management factor manipulated its success. The findings suggested that tourism business in Thailand with the implementation of customer relationship management should opt in improvement approach in terms of managerial structure, corporate culture building with customer- centralized approach accentuated, and investment of information technology and customer analysis, in order to capacitate higher efficiency of customer relationship management process that would result in customer satisfaction and retention of service.

Keywords: customer relationship management, casual relationship model, tourism, Thailand

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Authors: Jessica Lynne Hicksted

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Disability discrimination is a long-standing issue that, despite protections, continues to result in unemployment, underemployment, and lack of advancement for disabled persons. Visible stigma is researched substantially; however, less is known about the impact of stigma associated with identities that can be concealed. Although researchers have investigated this issue, currently there is no tool to measure this phenomenon. The purpose of this quantitative study was to create and validate a new tool to measure stigma associated with invisible disabilities. The study is grounded by Roberts’ conceptual model of professional image construction integrating social identity, impression management, and organizational behavior; Meisenbach’s stigma management communication theory addressing the vulnerabilities and resilience to stigma communication by focusing on how individuals encounter and react to perceived stigmas; and Kelley and Michela’s causal attribution theory. Participants included 1,412 adults in the United States 18 years or older currently employed or who have been employed within the last 5 years. Confirmatory factor analysis of the new Workplace Invisible Disabilities Experience scale showed excellent fit of the factor structure to the data, X₂/df = 1.855, CFI = .955, RMSEA = .045, p = .0001. The scale has three subscales, Ableism, Advocacy, and Acceptance, with excellent internal consistency reliability. Total score, Advocacy, and Acceptance were associated with intention to disclose. Implications for positive social change include helping organizations to understand the extent of invisible disability stigma that can help improve workplace performance and satisfaction.

Keywords: invisible disabilities, accommodations, acceptance, social change, workplace inclusion

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Authors: Meriem Taleb, Ghania Tail, Fatma Zohra Kara, Brahim Djedouani, T. Moussa

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Forensic entomology has grown immensely as a discipline in the past thirty years. The main purpose of forensic entomology is to establish the post mortem interval or PMI. Three days after the death, insect evidence is often the most accurate and sometimes the only method of determining elapsed time since death. This work presents the estimation of the PMI in an experiment to test the reliability of the accumulated degree days (ADD) method and the application of this method in a real case. The study was conducted at the Laboratory of Entomology at the National Institute for Criminalistics and Criminology of the National Gendarmerie, Algeria. The domestic rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus L. was selected as the animal model. On 08th July 2012, the animal was killed. Larvae were collected and raised to adulthood. Estimation of oviposition time was calculated by summing up average daily temperatures minus minimum development temperature (also specific to each species). When the sum is reached, it corresponds to the oviposition day. Weather data were obtained from the nearest meteorological station. After rearing was accomplished, three species emerged: Lucilia sericata, Chrysomya albiceps, and Sarcophaga africa. For Chrysomya albiceps species, a cumulation of 186°C is necessary. The emergence of adults occured on 22nd July 2012. A value of 193.4°C is reached on 9th August 2012. Lucilia sericata species require a cumulation of 207°C. The emergence of adults occurred on 23rd, July 2012. A value of 211.35°C is reached on 9th August 2012. We should also consider that oviposition may occur more than 12 hours after death. Thus, the obtained PMI is in agreement with the actual time of death. We illustrate the use of this method during the investigation of a case of a decaying human body found on 03rd March 2015 in Bechar, South West of Algerian desert. Maggots were collected and sent to the Laboratory of Entomology. Lucilia sericata adults were identified on 24th March 2015 after emergence. A sum of 211.6°C was reached on 1st March 2015 which corresponds to the estimated day of oviposition. Therefore, the estimated date of death is 1st March 2015 ± 24 hours. The estimated PMI by accumulated degree days (ADD) method seems to be very precise. Entomological evidence should always be used in homicide investigations when the time of death cannot be determined by other methods.

Keywords: forensic entomology, accumulated degree days, postmortem interval, diptera, Algeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 278

Authors: Muhammad Abdullah, Salman Iqbal, Mamoona Rasheed

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Social identity among people is an important source of pride and self-esteem, consequently, people struggle to preserve a positive perception of their groups and collectives. The purpose of this paper is to explain the process of social identification and to highlight the underlying causal factors of social identity among employees. There is a little research about how the social identity of employees is shaped in Pakistan’s organizational culture. This study is based on social identity theory. This study uses Systems’ approach as a research methodology. The feedback loop approach is applied to explain the underlying key elements of employee behavior that collectively form social identity among social groups in corporate arena. The findings of this study reveal that effective, evaluative and cognitive components of an individual’s personality are associated with the social identification. The system dynamic feedback loop approach has revealed the underlying structure that is associated with social identity, social group formation, and effective component proved to be the most associated factor. This may also enable to understand how social groups become stable and individuals act according to the group requirements. The value of this paper lies in the understanding gained about the underlying key factors that play a crucial role in social group formation in organizations. It may help to understand the rationale behind how employees socially categorize themselves within organizations. It may also help to design effective and more cohesive teams for better operations and long-term results. This may help to share knowledge among employees as well. The underlying structure behind the social identification is highlighted with the help of system modeling.

Keywords: affective commitment, cognitive commitment, evaluated commitment, system thinking

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Oksana Domkina

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According to the modern economic theory, human capital became one of the main production factors and the most promising direction of investment, as such investment provides opportunity of obtaining high and long-term economic and social effects. Informational technology (IT) sector is the representative of this new economy which is most dependent on human capital as the main competitive factor. So the question for this sector is not whether investment in development of personal should be made, but what are the most effective ways of executing it and who has to pay for the education: Worker, company or government. In this paper we examine the IT sector, describe the labor market of IT workers and its development, and analyze the risks that IT companies may face if they invest in the development of their workers and what factors influence it. The main problem and difficulty of quantitative estimation of risk of investment in human capital of a company and its forecasting is human factor. Human behavior is often unpredictable and complex, so it requires specific approaches and methods of assessment. To build a comprehensive method of estimation of the risk of investment in human capital of a company considering human factor, we decided to use the method of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), that initially was created and developed. We separated three main group of factors: Risks related to the worker, related to the company, and external factors. To receive data for our research, we conducted a survey among the HR departments of Ukrainian IT companies used them as experts for the AHP method. Received results showed that IT companies mostly invest in the development of their workers, although several hire only already qualified personnel. According to the results, the most significant risks are the risk of ineffective training and the risk of non-investment that are both related to the firm. The analysis of risk factors related to the employee showed that, the factors of personal reasons, motivation, and work performance have almost the same weights of importance. Regarding internal factors of the company, there is a high role of the factor of compensation and benefits, factors of interesting projects, team, and career opportunities. As for the external environment, one of the most dangerous factor of risk is competitor activities, meanwhile the political and economical situation factor also has a relatively high weight, which is easy to explain by the influence of severe crisis in Ukraine during 2014-2015. The presented method allows to take into consideration all main factors that affect the risk of investment in human capital of a company. This gives a base for further research in this field and allows for a creation of a practical framework for making decisions regarding the personnel development strategy and specific employees' development plans for the HR departments.

Keywords: risks, personnel development, investment in development, factors of risk, risk of investment in development, IT, analytic hierarchy process, AHP

Procedia PDF Downloads 286

Authors: Daniil Karzanov

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This paper studies the effect of quarterly earnings reports on the stock price. The profitability of the stock is modeled by geometric Brownian diffusion and the Constant Elasticity of Variance model. We fit several variations of stochastic differential equations to the pre-and after-report period using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Grid Search of parameters method. By examining the change in the model parameters after reports’ publication, the study reveals that the reports have enough evidence to be a structural breakpoint, meaning that all the forecast models exploited are not applicable for forecasting and should be refitted shortly.

Keywords: stock market, earnings reports, financial time series, structural breaks, stochastic differential equations

Procedia PDF Downloads 183