Search results for: Kuwait stock exchange (KSE)
1549 Resale Housing Development Board Price Prediction Considering Covid-19 through Sentiment Analysis
Authors: Srinaath Anbu Durai, Wang Zhaoxia
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Twitter sentiment has been used as a predictor to predict price values or trends in both the stock market and housing market. The pioneering works in this stream of research drew upon works in behavioural economics to show that sentiment or emotions impact economic decisions. Latest works in this stream focus on the algorithm used as opposed to the data used. A literature review of works in this stream through the lens of data used shows that there is a paucity of work that considers the impact of sentiments caused due to an external factor on either the stock or the housing market. This is despite an abundance of works in behavioural economics that show that sentiment or emotions caused due to an external factor impact economic decisions. To address this gap, this research studies the impact of Twitter sentiment pertaining to the Covid-19 pandemic on resale Housing Development Board (HDB) apartment prices in Singapore. It leverages SNSCRAPE to collect tweets pertaining to Covid-19 for sentiment analysis, lexicon based tools VADER and TextBlob are used for sentiment analysis, Granger Causality is used to examine the relationship between Covid-19 cases and the sentiment score, and neural networks are leveraged as prediction models. Twitter sentiment pertaining to Covid-19 as a predictor of HDB price in Singapore is studied in comparison with the traditional predictors of housing prices i.e., the structural and neighbourhood characteristics. The results indicate that using Twitter sentiment pertaining to Covid19 leads to better prediction than using only the traditional predictors and performs better as a predictor compared to two of the traditional predictors. Hence, Twitter sentiment pertaining to an external factor should be considered as important as traditional predictors. This paper demonstrates the real world economic applications of sentiment analysis of Twitter data.Keywords: sentiment analysis, Covid-19, housing price prediction, tweets, social media, Singapore HDB, behavioral economics, neural networks
Procedia PDF Downloads 1181548 Numerical Analysis of Charge Exchange in an Opposed-Piston Engine
Authors: Zbigniew Czyż, Adam Majczak, Lukasz Grabowski
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The paper presents a description of geometric models, computational algorithms, and results of numerical analyses of charge exchange in a two-stroke opposed-piston engine. The research engine was a newly designed internal Diesel engine. The unit is characterized by three cylinders in which three pairs of opposed-pistons operate. The engine will generate a power output equal to 100 kW at a crankshaft rotation speed of 3800-4000 rpm. The numerical investigations were carried out using ANSYS FLUENT solver. Numerical research, in contrast to experimental research, allows us to validate project assumptions and avoid costly prototype preparation for experimental tests. This makes it possible to optimize the geometrical model in countless variants with no production costs. The geometrical model includes an intake manifold, a cylinder, and an outlet manifold. The study was conducted for a series of modifications of manifolds and intake and exhaust ports to optimize the charge exchange process in the engine. The calculations specified a swirl coefficient obtained under stationary conditions for a full opening of intake and exhaust ports as well as a CA value of 280° for all cylinders. In addition, mass flow rates were identified separately in all of the intake and exhaust ports to achieve the best possible uniformity of flow in the individual cylinders. For the models under consideration, velocity, pressure and streamline contours were generated in important cross sections. The developed models are designed primarily to minimize the flow drag through the intake and exhaust ports while the mass flow rate increases. Firstly, in order to calculate the swirl ratio [-], tangential velocity v [m/s] and then angular velocity ω [rad / s] with respect to the charge as the mean of each element were calculated. The paper contains comparative analyses of all the intake and exhaust manifolds of the designed engine. Acknowledgement: This work has been realized in the cooperation with The Construction Office of WSK "PZL-KALISZ" S.A." and is part of Grant Agreement No. POIR.01.02.00-00-0002/15 financed by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development.Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, engine swirl, fluid mechanics, mass flow rates, numerical analysis, opposed-piston engine
Procedia PDF Downloads 1991547 Quantification of the Non-Registered Electrical and Electronic Equipment for Domestic Consumption and Enhancing E-Waste Estimation: A Case Study on TVs in Vietnam
Authors: Ha Phuong Tran, Feng Wang, Jo Dewulf, Hai Trung Huynh, Thomas Schaubroeck
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The fast increase and complex components have made waste of electrical and electronic equipment (or e-waste) one of the most problematic waste streams worldwide. Precise information on its size on national, regional and global level has therefore been highlighted as prerequisite to obtain a proper management system. However, this is a very challenging task, especially in developing countries where both formal e-waste management system and necessary statistical data for e-waste estimation, i.e. data on the production, sale and trade of electrical and electronic equipment (EEE), are often lacking. Moreover, there is an inflow of non-registered electronic and electric equipment, which ‘invisibly’ enters the EEE domestic market and then is used for domestic consumption. The non-registration/invisibility and (in most of the case) illicit nature of this flow make it difficult or even impossible to be captured in any statistical system. The e-waste generated from it is thus often uncounted in current e-waste estimation based on statistical market data. Therefore, this study focuses on enhancing e-waste estimation in developing countries and proposing a calculation pathway to quantify the magnitude of the non-registered EEE inflow. An advanced Input-Out Analysis model (i.e. the Sale–Stock–Lifespan model) has been integrated in the calculation procedure. In general, Sale-Stock-Lifespan model assists to improve the quality of input data for modeling (i.e. perform data consolidation to create more accurate lifespan profile, model dynamic lifespan to take into account its changes over time), via which the quality of e-waste estimation can be improved. To demonstrate the above objectives, a case study on televisions (TVs) in Vietnam has been employed. The results show that the amount of waste TVs in Vietnam has increased four times since 2000 till now. This upward trend is expected to continue in the future. In 2035, a total of 9.51 million TVs are predicted to be discarded. Moreover, estimation of non-registered TV inflow shows that it might on average contribute about 15% to the total TVs sold on the Vietnamese market during the whole period of 2002 to 2013. To tackle potential uncertainties associated with estimation models and input data, sensitivity analysis has been applied. The results show that both estimations of waste and non-registered inflow depend on two parameters i.e. number of TVs used in household and the lifespan. Particularly, with a 1% increase in the TV in-use rate, the average market share of non-register inflow in the period 2002-2013 increases 0.95%. However, it decreases from 27% to 15% when the constant unadjusted lifespan is replaced by the dynamic adjusted lifespan. The effect of these two parameters on the amount of waste TV generation for each year is more complex and non-linear over time. To conclude, despite of remaining uncertainty, this study is the first attempt to apply the Sale-Stock-Lifespan model to improve the e-waste estimation in developing countries and to quantify the non-registered EEE inflow to domestic consumption. It therefore can be further improved in future with more knowledge and data.Keywords: e-waste, non-registered electrical and electronic equipment, TVs, Vietnam
Procedia PDF Downloads 2481546 Carbon Pool Assessment in Two Community Forest in Nepal
Authors: Khemnath Kharel
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Forest itself is a factory as well as product. It supplies tangible and intangible goods and services. It supplies timber, fuel wood, fodder, grass leaf litter as well as non timber edible goods and medicinal and aromatic products additionally provides environmental services. These environmental services are of local, national, or even global importance. In Nepal more than 19 thousands community forests are providing environmental service in less economic benefit than actual efficiency. There is a risk of cost of management of those forest exceeds benefits and forests get converted to open access resources in future. Most of the environmental goods and services don’t have markets which mean no prices at which they are available to the consumers therefore the valuation of these services goods and services establishment of paying mechanism for such services and insure the benefit to community is more relevant in local as well as global scale. There are few examples of carbon trading in domestic level to meet the country wide emission goal. In this contest the study aims to explore the public attitude towards carbon offsetting and their responsibility over service providers. This study helps in promotion of environment service awareness among general people and service provider; community forest. The research helps to unveil the carbon pool scenario in community forest and willingness to pay for carbon offsetting of people who are consuming more energy than general people and emitting relatively more carbon in atmosphere. The study has assessed the carbon pool status in two community forest. In the study in two community forests carbon pools were assessed following the guideline “Forest Carbon Inventory Guideline 2010” prescribed by Ministry of Forest and soil Conservation, Nepal. Final out comes of analysis in intensively managed area of Hokse CF recorded as 103.58 tons C /ha with 6173.30 tons carbon stock. Similarly in Hariyali CF carbon density was recorded 251.72 mg C /ha. The total carbon stock of intensively managed blocks in Hariyali CF is 35839.62 tons carbon.Keywords: carbon, offsetting, sequestration, valuation
Procedia PDF Downloads 3231545 Development, Characterization and Performance Evaluation of a Weak Cation Exchange Hydrogel Using Ultrasonic Technique
Authors: Mohamed H. Sorour, Hayam F. Shaalan, Heba A. Hani, Eman S. Sayed, Amany A. El-Mansoup
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Heavy metals (HMs) present an increasing threat to aquatic and soil environment. Thus, techniques should be developed for the removal and/or recovery of those HMs from point sources in the generating industries. This paper reports our endeavors concerning the development of in-house developed weak cation exchange polyacrylate hydrogel kaolin composites for heavy metals removal. This type of composite enables desirable characteristics and functions including mechanical strength, bed porosity and cost advantages. This paper emphasizes the effect of varying crosslinker (methylenebis(acrylamide)) concentration. The prepared cation exchanger has been subjected to intensive characterization using X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray fluorescence (XRF) and Brunauer Emmett and Teller (BET) method. Moreover, the performance was investigated using synthetic and real wastewater for an industrial complex east of Cairo. Simulated and real wastewater compositions addressed; Cr, Co, Ni, and Pb are in the range of (92-115), (91-103), (86-88) and (99-125), respectively. Adsorption experiments have been conducted in both batch and column modes. In general, batch tests revealed enhanced cation exchange capacities of 70, 72, 78.2 and 99.9 mg/g from single synthetic wastes while, removal efficiencies of 82.2, 86.4, 44.4 and 96% were obtained for Cr, Co, Ni and Pb, respectively from mixed synthetic wastes. It is concluded that the mixed synthetic and real wastewaters have lower adsorption capacities than single solutions. It is worth mentioned that Pb attained higher adsorption capacities with comparable results in all tested concentrations of synthetic and real wastewaters. Pilot scale experiments were also conducted for mixed synthetic waste in a fluidized bed column for 48 hour cycle time which revealed 86.4%, 58.5%, 66.8% and 96.9% removal efficiency for Cr, Co, Ni, and Pb, respectively with maximum regeneration was also conducted using saline and acid regenerants. Maximum regeneration efficiencies for the column studies higher than the batch ones about by about 30% to 60%. Studies are currently under way to enhance the regeneration efficiency to enable successful scaling up of the adsorption column.Keywords: polyacrylate hydrogel kaolin, ultrasonic irradiation, heavy metals, adsorption and regeneration
Procedia PDF Downloads 1231544 Detection of Change Points in Earthquakes Data: A Bayesian Approach
Authors: F. A. Al-Awadhi, D. Al-Hulail
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In this study, we applied the Bayesian hierarchical model to detect single and multiple change points for daily earthquake body wave magnitude. The change point analysis is used in both backward (off-line) and forward (on-line) statistical research. In this study, it is used with the backward approach. Different types of change parameters are considered (mean, variance or both). The posterior model and the conditional distributions for single and multiple change points are derived and implemented using BUGS software. The model is applicable for any set of data. The sensitivity of the model is tested using different prior and likelihood functions. Using Mb data, we concluded that during January 2002 and December 2003, three changes occurred in the mean magnitude of Mb in Kuwait and its vicinity.Keywords: multiple change points, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, earthquake magnitude, hierarchical Bayesian mode
Procedia PDF Downloads 4581543 The Impact of Environmental Corporate Social Responsibility (ECSR) and the Perceived Moral Intensity on the Intention of Ethical Investment
Authors: Chiung-Yao Huang, Yu-Cheng Lin, Chiung-Hui Chen
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This study seeks to examine perceived environmental corporate social responsibility (ECSR) with a focus on negative environmental questions, related to intention of ethical investment intention after a environmental failure recovery. An empirical test was employed to test the hypotheses. We manipulated the information on negative ECSR activities of a hypothetical firm in a experimental design with a failure recovery treatment. The company’s negative ECSR recovery was depicted in a positive perspective (depicting a follow-up strong social action), whereas in the negative ECSR treatment it was described in a negative perspective (depicting a follow-up non social action). In both treatments, information about other key characteristics of the focal company were kept constant. Investors’ intentions to invest in the company’s stock were evaluated by multi-item scales. Results indicate that positive ECSR recovery information about a firm enhances investors’ intentions to invest in the company’s stock. In addition, perceived moral intensity has a significant impact on the intention of ethical investment and that perceived moral intensity also serves as a key moderating variable in the relationship between negative ECSR and the intention of ethical investment. Finally, theoretical and managerial implications of the findings are discussed. Practical implications: The results suggest that managers may need to be aware of perceived moral intensity as a key variable in restoring the intention of ethical investment. The results further suggest that perceived moral intensity has a direct, and it also has an moderating influence between ECSR and the intention of ethical investment. Originality/value: In an attempt to deepen the understanding of how investors perceptions of firm environmental CSR are connected with other investor‐related outcomes through ECSR recovery, the present research proposes a comprehensive model which encompasses ECSR and other key relationship constructs after a ECSR failure and recovery.Keywords: ethical investment, Environmental Corporate Social Responsibility(ECSR), ECSR recovery, moral intensity
Procedia PDF Downloads 3521542 The Impact of Corporate Social Responsibilities on Employees’ Green Behavior: The Moderating Role of Organizational Trust
Authors: Zubair Ahmad
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Drawing from social exchange theory, this study proposes to explore the association between corporate social responsibility as external CSR and Internal CSR with employees' green behavior. Furthermore, the author also analyzed the moderating role of organizational trust among the aforementioned associations. The target respondents for this descriptive study were employees working hotel industry of Pakistan. An online questionnaire link was sent to hotel managers and is requested to share the questionnaire link with employees. The respondents for this study were selected through the convenience sampling technique. The collected data from participants is analyzed through AMOS and SPSS. The findings show that both internal corporate social responsibility and external corporate social responsibility exert a positive and significant influence on employees' green behavior. Thus it is concluded that the key driver behind the green behavior of hotel employees is the social setting of their workplace. Findings also revealed that organizational trust plays a positive role in enhancing the green behavior of hotel employees. This study extends the literature on corporate social responsibility by exploring the boundary role of organizational trust between internal and external corporate social responsibility and employees' green behavior in hotels. Moreover, CSR activities should be performed for attaining a competitive edge and maintaining a balance between progress and sustainability of the environment.Keywords: corporate social responsibility, internal corporate social responsibility, external corporate social responsibility, social exchange theory, employee green behavior, organizational trust
Procedia PDF Downloads 1071541 Dividend Policy in Family Controlling Firms from a Governance Perspective: Empirical Evidence in Thailand
Authors: Tanapond S.
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Typically, most of the controlling firms are relate to family firms which are widespread and important for economic growth particularly in Asian Pacific region. The unique characteristics of the controlling families tend to play an important role in determining the corporate policies such as dividend policy. Given the complexity of the family business phenomenon, the empirical evidence has been unclear on how the families behind business groups influence dividend policy in Asian markets with the prevalent existence of cross-shareholdings and pyramidal structure. Dividend policy as one of an important determinant of firm value could also be implemented in order to examine the effect of the controlling families behind business groups on strategic decisions-making in terms of a governance perspective and agency problems. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of ownership structure and concentration which are influential internal corporate governance mechanisms in family firms on dividend decision-making. Using panel data and constructing a unique dataset of family ownership and control through hand-collecting information from the nonfinancial companies listed in Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) between 2000 and 2015, the study finds that family firms with large stakes distribute higher dividends than family firms with small stakes. Family ownership can mitigate the agency problems and the expropriation of minority investors in family firms. To provide insight into the distinguish between ownership rights and control rights, this study examines specific firm characteristics including the degrees of concentration of controlling shareholders by classifying family ownership in different categories. The results show that controlling families with large deviation between voting rights and cash flow rights have more power and affect lower dividend payment. These situations become worse when second blockholders are families. To the best knowledge of the researcher, this study is the first to examine the association between family firms’ characteristics and dividend policy from the corporate governance perspectives in Thailand with weak investor protection environment and high ownership concentration. This research also underscores the importance of family control especially in a context in which family business groups and pyramidal structure are prevalent. As a result, academics and policy makers can develop markets and corporate policies to eliminate agency problem.Keywords: agency theory, dividend policy, family control, Thailand
Procedia PDF Downloads 2921540 Optimization of Hepatitis B Surface Antigen Purifications to Improving the Production of Hepatitis B Vaccines on Pichia pastoris
Authors: Rizky Kusuma Cahyani
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Hepatitis B is a liver inflammatory disease caused by hepatitis B virus (HBV). This infection can be prevented by vaccination which contains HBV surface protein (sHBsAg). However, vaccine supply is limited. Several attempts have been conducted to produce local sHBsAg. However, the purity degree and protein yield are still inadequate. Therefore optimization of HBsAg purification steps is required to obtain high yield with better purification fold. In this study, optimization of purification was done in 2 steps, precipitation using variation of NaCl concentration (0,3 M; 0,5 M; 0,7 M) and PEG (3%, 5%, 7%); ion exchange chromatography (IEC) using NaCl 300-500 mM elution buffer concentration.To determine HBsAg protein, bicinchoninic acid assay (BCA) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used in this study. Visualization of HBsAg protein was done by SDS-PAGE analysis. Based on quantitative analysis, optimal condition at precipitation step was given 0,3 M NaCl and PEG 3%, while in ion exchange chromatography step, the optimum condition when protein eluted with NaCl 500 mM. Sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) analysis indicates that the presence of protein HBsAg with a molecular weight of 25 kDa (monomer) and 50 kDa (dimer). The optimum condition for purification of sHBsAg produced in Pichia pastoris gave a yield of 47% and purification fold 17x so that it would increase the production of hepatitis B vaccine to be more optimal.Keywords: hepatitis B virus, HBsAg, hepatitis B surface antigen, Pichia pastoris, purification
Procedia PDF Downloads 1521539 Dynamic Modeling of the Green Building Movement in the U.S.: Strategies to Reduce Carbon Footprint of Residential Building Stock
Authors: Nuri Onat, Omer Tatari, Gokhan Egilmez
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The U.S. buildings consume significant amount of energy and natural resources and they are responsible for approximately 40 % of the greenhouse gases emitted in the United States. Awareness of these environmental impacts paved the way for the adoption of green building movement. The green building movement is a rapidly increasing trend. Green Construction market has generated $173 billion dollars in GDP, supported over 2.4 million jobs, and provided $123 billion dollars in labor earnings. The number of LEED certified buildings is projected to be almost half of the all new, nonresidential buildings by 2015. National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) aims to increase number of net-zero energy buildings (NZB). The ultimate goal is to have all commercial NZB by 2050 in the US (NSTC 2008). Green Building Initiative (GBI) became the first green building organization that is accredited by American National Standards Institute (ANSI), which will also boost number of green buildings certified by Green Globes. However, there is much less focus on greening the residential buildings, although the environmental impacts of existing residential buildings are more than that of commercial buildings. In this regard, current research aims to model the residential green building movement with a dynamic model approach and assess the possible strategies to stabilize the carbon footprint of the U.S. residential building stock. Three aspects of sustainable development are considered in policy making, namely: high performance green building (HPGB) construction, NZB construction and building retrofitting. 19 different policy options are proposed and analyzed. Results of this study explored that increasing the construction rate of HPGBs or NZBs is not a sufficient policy to stabilize the carbon footprint of the residential buildings. Energy efficient building retrofitting options are found to be more effective strategies then increasing HPGBs and NZBs construction. Also, significance of shifting to renewable energy sources for electricity generation is stressed.Keywords: green building movement, residential buildings, carbon footprint, system dynamics
Procedia PDF Downloads 4281538 Northern Nigeria Vaccine Direct Delivery System
Authors: Evelyn Castle, Adam Thompson
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Background: In 2013, the Kano State Primary Health Care Management Board redesigned its Routine immunization supply chain from diffused pull to direct delivery push. It addressed issues around stockouts and reduced time spent by health facility staff collecting, and reporting on vaccine usage. The health care board sought the help of a 3PL for twice-monthly deliveries from its cold store to 484 facilities across 44 local governments. eHA’s Health Delivery Systems group formed a 3PL to serve 326 of these new facilities in partnership with the State. We focused on designing and implementing a technology system throughout. Basic methodologies: GIS Mapping: - Planning the delivery of vaccines to hundreds of health facilities requires detailed route planning for delivery vehicles. Mapping the road networks across Kano and Bauchi with a custom routing tool provided information for the optimization of deliveries. Reducing the number of kilometers driven each round by 20%, - reducing cost and delivery time. Direct Delivery Information System: - Vaccine Direct Deliveries are facilitated through pre-round planning (driven by health facility database, extensive GIS, and inventory workflow rules), manager and driver control panel customizing delivery routines and reporting, progress dashboard, schedules/routes, packing lists, delivery reports, and driver data collection applications. Move: Last Mile Logistics Management System: - MOVE has improved vaccine supply information management to be timely, accurate and actionable. Provides stock management workflow support, alerts management for cold chain exceptions/stock outs, and on-device analytics for health and supply chain staff. Software was built to be offline-first with user-validated interface and experience. Deployed to hundreds of vaccine storage site the improved information tools helps facilitate the process of system redesign and change management. Findings: - Stock-outs reduced from 90% to 33% - Redesigned current health systems and managing vaccine supply for 68% of Kano’s wards. - Near real time reporting and data availability to track stock. - Paperwork burdens of health staff have been dramatically reduced. - Medicine available when the community needs it. - Consistent vaccination dates for children under one to prevent polio, yellow fever, tetanus. - Higher immunization rates = Lower infection rates. - Hundreds of millions of Naira worth of vaccines successfully transported. - Fortnightly service to 326 facilities in 326 wards across 30 Local Government areas. - 6,031 cumulative deliveries. - Over 3.44 million doses transported. - Minimum travel distance covered in a round of delivery is 2000 kms & maximum of 6297 kms. - 153,409 kms travelled by 6 drivers. - 500 facilities in 326 wards. - Data captured and synchronized for the first time. - Data driven decision making now possible. Conclusion: eHA’s Vaccine Direct delivery has met challenges in Kano and Bauchi State and provided a reliable delivery service of vaccinations that ensure t health facilities can run vaccination clinics for children under one. eHA uses innovative technology that delivers vaccines from Northern Nigerian zonal stores straight to healthcare facilities. Helped healthcare workers spend less time managing supplies and more time delivering care, and will be rolled out nationally across Nigeria.Keywords: direct delivery information system, health delivery system, GIS mapping, Northern Nigeria, vaccines
Procedia PDF Downloads 3741537 Chemotactic Behaviour of Human Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Response to Silicate Substituted Hydroxyapatite
Authors: Dinara Ikramova, Karin A. Hing, Simon C. F. Rawlinson
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Silicate-substituted hydroxyapatite (SiHA) has been shown to enhance bone regeneration in vivo compared with phase pure stoichiometric hydroxyapatite. Evidence suggests that substrate chemistry dependent formation of a permissive protein layer on the surface of synthetic bone graft substitute materials is key for bioactivity and cell attachment. However, little information is available on whether the substrate chemistry may affect cell migration and recruitment. The aim of this study is to investigate whether or not human Mesenchymal Stem Cells (hMSCs) exhibit a chemotactic response to SiHA porous granules and if it can be linked to either the ion exchange or protein sequestering and enrichment on the surface of the material. 150mg of SiHA granules with 80% total porosity and 20% strut porosity were incubated in 1ml of either Serum Free Media (SFM) or 10% Serum Containing Media (SCM) under static cell culture conditions (37°C, 5% CO2) in absence of cells. Protein sequestering and exchange of calcium, phosphate and silicate ions were analysed at 0.5, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and 24 hours with n=12 per time point. Migration of hMSCs in the presence of 150mg of SiHA granules was assessed over 24 hours using a modified transwell migration system in either SFM or SCM (n=6) with 30% serum containing media acting as a positive control. At 24 hours protein sequestering and ionic exchange were analysed, and the number of cells was quantified using a high throughput confocal microscope (IN Cell Analyser 6000). In acellular condition, both calcium and phosphate ion concentrations in media showed a decrease at 24 hours which was greater in SFM than in SCM. This suggests possible formation and precipitation of a bone like apatite on the surface of SiHA. Reduction in this activity observed in SCM indicates that the presence of serum proteins is interfering with the ion exchange at the material and media interface. Adsorbed protein levels showed fluctuation over time followed by sharp decrease at 24 hours, suggesting a possible protein rearrangement on the surface of the material. The ion analysis performed on SFM and SCM after 24-hour incubation with cells in the presence of granules showed a greater reduction in phosphate concentration in both SFM and SCM compared to phosphate levels in acellular condition. Silicate concentration in SCM increased from 1.6mM (absence of cells) to 5.1mM (presence of cells). This indicates that the cells are promoting the uptake of phosphate and release of silicate ions. No significant change was seen in levels of adsorbed proteins in the presence and absence of cells. Further analysis is required to determine whether the species of these proteins change over time. The analysis of cell migration after 24-hour incubation showed more cells migrating towards the granules, 12.7% in SFM and 8.3% in SCM, than in positive control, 4.5% in SFM and 3.6% in SCM respectively. These results suggest that SiHA has a chemotactic activity independent of serum proteins. A property which has not previously been demonstrated for a synthetic bone graft material.Keywords: cell migration, hMSCs, SiHA, transwell migration system
Procedia PDF Downloads 1321536 Adoption of Electronic Logistics Management Information System for Life-Saving Maternal, Neonatal and Child Health Medicines: A Bangladesh Perspective
Authors: Mohammad Julhas Sujan, Md. Ferdous Alam
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Maternal, neonatal, and child health (MNCH) holds one of the prime focuses in Bangladesh’s national healthcare system. To save the lives of mothers and children, knowing the stock of MNCH medicines in different healthcare facilities and when to replenish them are essential. A robust information system not only facilitates efficient management of the essential MNCH medicines but also helps effective allocation of scarce resources. In Bangladesh, Supply chain management of the 25-essential life-saving medicines are currently tracked and monitored via an electronic logistics management information system (eLMIS). Our aim was to conduct a cross-sectional study with a year (2020) worth of data from 24 districts of Bangladesh to evaluate how eLMIS is helping the Government and other stakeholders in efficient supply chain management. Data were collected from 4711 healthcare facilities ranging from primary to secondary levels within a district. About 90% (4143) are community clinics which are considered primary health care facilities in Bangladesh. After eLMIS implementation, the average reporting rate across the districts has been increased (> 97%). The month of stock (MOS) of zinc is an average 6 months compared to Inj. Magnesium Sulphate which will take 2.5 years to consume according to the current average monthly consumption (AMC). Due to first approaching expiry, Tab. Misoprostol, 7.1% Chlorhexidine and Inj. Oxytocin may become unusable. Moreover, Inj. Oxytocin is temperature sensitive and may reduce its efficacy if it is stocked for a longer period. In contrast, Zinc should be sufficiently stocked to prevent sporadic stockouts. To understand how data are collected, transmitted, processed, and aggregated for MNCH medicines in a faster and timely manner, an electronic logistics management information system (eLMIS) is necessary. We recommend the use of such a system in developing countries like Bangladesh for efficient supply chain management of essential MNCH medicines.Keywords: adaption, eLMIS, MNCH, live-saving medicines
Procedia PDF Downloads 1621535 The Network Effect on Green Information on Taiwan Social Network Sites
Authors: Pi Hsia Liang
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The rise of Facebook, Twitter, and other social networks significantly changes in interconnections between people, enhancing the process of information dissemination and amplify the influence of that information. Therefore, to develop informational efficiency or signaling equilibrium type of information environment among social networks, without adverse selection effects, becomes an important issue. Thus, someone may post a piece of intentional information in relation to personal interest for trying to create marginal influence. Therefore, economists are seeking to establish theories of informational efficiency under social network environment in order to resolve adverse selection issues. Reputation could be one of the important factors in the process of creating informational efficiency. Additionally, investors how to process green information, or information of corporate social responsibility is a very important study. This study essentially employs experimental study for examining how investors use stock relevant green information in Facebook and various Taiwan local networks. Facebook, and blogs of Money DJ, Technews and cnYES, respectively, are the primary sites for this examination that also allow to differentiate effects between Facebook and other local social networks. Questionnaire is developed for such an experimental testing. Note that questionnaire allows this study to group, for example, decision frequency and length of time duration focusing on social networks that are used for discriminating investor type and competence of informed investor. This study selects 500 investors that can be separated into two respective 250 samples as the control group and 250 samples in such an experimental. The quantity of sample investor sufficiently results in statistic significance of this experimental study. The empirical results of this study can be used for explaining how financial information in relation to corporate social responsibility would be disseminated in social websites. Therefore, we can lead to better interpretation of price/earnings relationship type of study and empirical studies of green information usefulness or informational efficiency Note that the above mentioned empirical studies did not exist any social network and annual report of corporate social responsibility. This study expects to find the results that both network degree and network cluster significantly affected green information dissemination frequency. In other words, investors with more connections and with high clustered connections might exert a greater influence on their green information dissemination process. The preferred users of financial social networks could make better stock decision that could amplify effects of green information. In addition, Facebook would be more influential than other local Taiwan financial social networks, although Facebook is not a specialized financial social network. In other words, the popularity and reputation effects of Facebook significantly contribute to usefulness of green information and influence of green information. Third, it has a better chance to find rumor or cheating information in local Taiwan financial social networks than Facebook. In other words, Facebook possesses reputation effect, or a better informational efficiency. Or, even though Taiwan local financial social networks have marginal informational effects on stock price, because of shortage of informational efficiency or monitoring system, information could be a tool for those whom owning superior information.Keywords: network effect on financial services, informational efficiency theory, social networks, social websites
Procedia PDF Downloads 2481534 Impact of Organic Farming on Soil Fertility and Microbial Activity
Authors: Menuka Maharjan
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In the name of food security, agriculture intensification through conventional farming is being implemented in Nepal. Government focus on increasing agriculture production completely ignores soil as well human health. This leads to create serious soil degradation, i.e., reduction of soil fertility and microbial activity and health hazard in the country. On this note, organic farming is sustainable agriculture approach which can address challenge of sustaining food security while protecting the environment. This creates a win-win situation both for people and the environment. However, people have limited knowledge on significance of organic farming for environment conservation and food security especially developing countries like Nepal. Thus, the objective of the study was to assess the impacts of organic farming on soil fertility and microbial activity compared to conventional farming and forest in Chitwan, Nepal. Total soil organic carbon (C) was highest in organic farming (24 mg C g⁻¹ soil) followed by conventional farming (15 mg C g⁻¹ soil) and forest (9 mg C g⁻¹ soil) in the topsoil layer (0-10 cm depth). A similar trend was found for total nitrogen (N) content in all three land uses with organic farming soil possessing the highest total N content in both 0-10 cm and 10-20 cm depth. Microbial biomass C and N were also highest under organic farming, especially in the topsoil layer (350 and 46 mg g⁻¹ soil, respectively). Similarly, microbial biomass phosphorus (P) was higher (3.6 and 1.0 mg P kg⁻¹ at 0-10 and 10-20 cm depth, respectively) in organic farming compared to conventional farming and forest at both depths. However, conventional farming and forest soils had similar microbial biomass (C, N, and P) content. After conversion of forest, the P stock significantly increased by 373% and 170% in soil under organic farming at 0-10 and 10-20 cm depth, respectively. In conventional farming, the P stock increased by 64% and 36% at 0-10 cm and 10-20 cm depth, respectively, compared to forest. Overall, organic farming practices, i.e., crop rotation, residue input and farmyard manure application, significantly alters soil fertility and microbial activity. Organic farming system is emerging as a sustainable land use system which can address the issues of food security and environment conservation by increasing sustainable agriculture production and carbon sequestration, respectively, supporting to achieve goals of sustainable development.Keywords: organic farming, soil fertility, micobial biomas, food security
Procedia PDF Downloads 1781533 The Emerging Multi-Species Trap Fishery in the Red Sea Waters of Saudi Arabia
Authors: Nabeel M. Alikunhi, Zenon B. Batang, Aymen Charef, Abdulaziz M. Al-Suwailem
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Saudi Arabia has a long history of using traps as a traditional fishing gear for catching commercially important demersal, mainly coral reef-associated fish species. Fish traps constitute the dominant small-scale fisheries in Saudi waters of Arabian Gulf (eastern seaboard of Saudi Arabia). Recently, however, traps have been increasingly used along the Saudi Red Sea coast (western seaboard), with a coastline of 1800 km (71%) compared to only 720 km (29%) in the Saudi Gulf region. The production trend for traps indicates a recent increase in catches and percent contribution to traditional fishery landings, thus ascertaining the rapid proliferation of trap fishing along the Saudi Red Sea coast. Reef-associated fish species, mainly groupers (Serranidae), emperors (Lethrinidae), parrotfishes (Scaridae), scads and trevallies (Carangidae), and snappers (Lutjanidae), dominate the trap catches, reflecting the reef-dominated shelf zone in the Red Sea. This ongoing investigation covers following major objectives (i) Baseline studies to characterize trap fishery through landing site visit and interview surveys (ii) Stock assessment by fisheries and biological data obtained through monthly landing site monitoring using fishery operational model by FLBEIA, (iii) Operational impacts, derelict traps assessment and by-catch analysis through bottom-mounted video camera and onboard monitoring (iv) Elucidation of fishing grounds and derelict traps impacts by onboard monitoring, Remotely Operated underwater Vehicle and Autonomous Underwater Vehicle surveys; and (v) Analysis of gear design and operations which covers colonization and deterioration experiments. The progress of this investigation on the impacts of the trap fishery on fish stocks and the marine environment in the Saudi Red Sea region is presented.Keywords: red sea, Saudi Arabia, fish trap, stock assessment, environmental impacts
Procedia PDF Downloads 3501532 Comparative Study of Vertical and Horizontal Triplex Tube Latent Heat Storage Units
Authors: Hamid El Qarnia
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This study investigates the impact of the eccentricity of the central tube on the thermal and fluid characteristics of a triplex tube used in latent heat energy storage technologies. Two triplex tube orientations are considered in the proposed study: vertical and horizontal. The energy storage material, which is a phase change material (PCM), is placed in the space between the inside and outside tubes. During the thermal energy storage period, a heat transfer fluid (HTF) flows inside the two tubes, transmitting the heat to the PCM through two heat exchange surfaces instead of one heat exchange surface as it is the case for double tube heat storage systems. A CFD model is developed and validated against experimental data available in the literature. The mesh independency study is carried out to select the appropriate mesh. In addition, different time steps are examined to determine a time step ensuring accuracy of the numerical results and reduction in the computational time. The numerical model is then used to conduct numerical investigations of the thermal behavior and thermal performance of the storage unit. The effects of eccentricity of the central tube and HTF mass flow rate on thermal characteristics and performance indicators are examined for two flow arrangements: co-current and counter current flows. The results are given in terms of isotherm plots, streamlines, melting time and thermal energy storage efficiency.Keywords: energy storage, heat transfer, melting, solidification
Procedia PDF Downloads 561531 Reducing Inventory Costs by Reducing Inventory Levels: Kuwait Flour Mills and Bakeries Company
Authors: Dana Al-Qattan, Faiza Goodarzi, Heba Al-Resheedan, Kawther Shehab, Shoug Al-Ansari
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This project involves working with different types of forecasting methods and facility planning tools to help the company we have chosen to improve and reduce its inventory, increase its sales, and decrease its wastes and losses. The methods that have been used by the company have shown no improvement in decreasing the annual losses. The research made in the company has shown that no interest has been made in exploring different techniques to help the company. In this report, we introduce several methods and techniques that will help the company make more accurate forecasts and use of the available space efficiently. We expect our approach to reduce costs without affecting the quality of the product, and hence making production more viable.Keywords: production planning, inventory management, inventory control, simulation, facility planning and design, engineering economy and costs
Procedia PDF Downloads 5701530 The Role of Disturbed Dry Afromontane Forest of Ethiopia for Biodiversity Conservation and Carbon Storage
Authors: Mindaye Teshome, Nesibu Yahya, Carlos Moreira Miquelino Eleto Torres, Pedro Manuel Villaa, Mehari Alebachew
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Arbagugu forest is one of the remnant dry Afromontane forests under severe anthropogenic disturbances in central Ethiopia. Despite this fact, up-to-date information is lacking about the status of the forest and its role in climate change mitigation. In this study, we evaluated the woody species composition, structure, biomass, and carbon stock in this forest. We employed a systematic random sampling design and established fifty-three sample plots (20 × 100 m) to collect the vegetation data. A total of 37 woody species belonging to 25 families were recorded. The density of seedlings, saplings, and matured trees were 1174, 101, and 84 stems ha-1, respectively. The total basal area of trees with DBH (diameter at breast height) ≥ 2 cm was 21.3 m2 ha-1. The characteristic trees of dry Afromontane Forest such as Podocarpus falcatus, Juniperus procera, and Olea europaea subsp. cuspidata exhibited a fair regeneration status. On the contrary, the least abundant species Lepidotrichilia volkensii, Canthium oligocarpum, Dovyalis verrucosa, Calpurnia aurea, and Maesa lanceolata exhibited good regeneration status. Some tree species such as Polyscias fulva, Schefflera abyssinica, Erythrina brucei, and Apodytes dimidiata lack regeneration. The total carbon stored in the forest ranged between 6.3 Mg C ha-1 and 835.6 Mg C ha-1. This value is equivalent to 639.6 Mg C ha-1. The forest had a very low number of woody species composition and diversity. The regeneration study also revealed that a significant number of tree species had unsatisfactory regeneration status. Besides, the forest had a lower carbon stock density compared with other dry Afromontane forests. This implies the urgent need for forest conservation and restoration activities by the local government, conservation practitioners, and other concerned bodies to maintain the forest and sustain the various ecosystem goods and services provided by the Arbagugu forest.Keywords: aboveground biomass, forest regeneration, climate change, biodiversity conservation, restoration
Procedia PDF Downloads 1101529 Physicochemical Characterization of MFI–Ceramic Hollow Fibres Membranes for CO2 Separation with Alkali Metal Cation
Authors: A. Alshebani, Y. Swesi, S. Mrayed, F. Altaher
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This paper present some preliminary work on the preparation and physicochemical caracterization of nanocomposite MFI-alumina structures based on alumina hollow fibres. The fibers are manufactured by a wet spinning process. α-alumina particles were dispersed in a solution of polysulfone in NMP. The resulting slurry is pressed through the annular gap of a spinneret into a precipitation bath. The resulting green fibres are sintered. The mechanical strength of the alumina hollow fibres is determined by a three-point-bending test while the pore size is characterized by bubble-point testing. The bending strength is in the range of 110 MPa while the average pore size is 450 nm for an internal diameter of 1 mm and external diameter of 1.7 mm. To characterize the MFI membranes various techniques were used for physicochemical characterization of MFI–ceramic hollow fibres membranes: The nitrogen adsorption, X-ray diffractometry, scanning electron microscopy combined with X emission microanalysis. Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Energy Dispersive Microanalysis by the X-ray were used to observe the morphology of the hollow fibre membranes (thickness, infiltration into the carrier, defects, homogeneity). No surface film, has been obtained, as observed by SEM and EDX analysis and confirmed by high temperature variation of N2 and CO2 gas permeances before cation exchange. Local analysis and characterise (SEM and EDX) and overall (by ICP elemental analysis) were conducted on two samples exchanged to determine the quantity and distribution of the cation of cesium on the cross section fibre of the zeolite between the cavities.Keywords: physicochemical characterization of MFI, ceramic hollow fibre, CO2, ion-exchange
Procedia PDF Downloads 3511528 Combining a Continuum of Hidden Regimes and a Heteroskedastic Three-Factor Model in Option Pricing
Authors: Rachid Belhachemi, Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan
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This paper develops a discrete-time option pricing model for index options. The model consists of two key ingredients. First, daily stock return innovations are driven by a continuous hidden threshold mixed skew-normal (HTSN) distribution which generates conditional non-normality that is needed to fit daily index return. The most important feature of the HTSN is the inclusion of a latent state variable with a continuum of states, unlike the traditional mixture distributions where the state variable is discrete with little number of states. The HTSN distribution belongs to the class of univariate probability distributions where parameters of the distribution capture the dependence between the variable of interest and the continuous latent state variable (the regime). The distribution has an interpretation in terms of a mixture distribution with time-varying mixing probabilities. It has been shown empirically that this distribution outperforms its main competitor, the mixed normal (MN) distribution, in terms of capturing the stylized facts known for stock returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence. Second, heteroscedasticity in the model is captured by a threeexogenous-factor GARCH model (GARCHX), where the factors are taken from the principal components analysis of various world indices and presents an application to option pricing. The factors of the GARCHX model are extracted from a matrix of world indices applying principal component analysis (PCA). The empirically determined factors are uncorrelated and represent truly different common components driving the returns. Both factors and the eight parameters inherent to the HTSN distribution aim at capturing the impact of the state of the economy on price levels since distribution parameters have economic interpretations in terms of conditional volatilities and correlations of the returns with the hidden continuous state. The PCA identifies statistically independent factors affecting the random evolution of a given pool of assets -in our paper a pool of international stock indices- and sorting them by order of relative importance. The PCA computes a historical cross asset covariance matrix and identifies principal components representing independent factors. In our paper, factors are used to calibrate the HTSN-GARCHX model and are ultimately responsible for the nature of the distribution of random variables being generated. We benchmark our model to the MN-GARCHX model following the same PCA methodology and the standard Black-Scholes model. We show that our model outperforms the benchmark in terms of RMSE in dollar losses for put and call options, which in turn outperforms the analytical Black-Scholes by capturing the stylized facts known for index returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence.Keywords: continuous hidden threshold, factor models, GARCHX models, option pricing, risk-premium
Procedia PDF Downloads 2971527 Factors Related to Employee Adherence to Rules in Kuwait Business Organizations
Authors: Ali Muhammad
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The purpose of this study is to develop a theoretical framework which demonstrates the effect of four personal factors on employees rule following behavior in Kuwaiti business organizations. The model suggested in this study includes organizational citizenship behavior, affective organizational commitment, organizational trust, and procedural justice as possible predictors of rule following behavior. The study also attempts to compare the effects of the suggested factors on employees rule following behavior. The new model will, hopefully, extend previous research by adding new variables to the models used to explain employees rule following behavior. A discussion of issues related to rule-following behavior is presented, as well as recommendations for future research.Keywords: employee adherence to rules, organizational justice, organizational commitment, organizational citizenship behavior
Procedia PDF Downloads 4581526 Trust: The Enabler of Knowledge-Sharing Culture in an Informal Setting
Authors: Emmanuel Ukpe, S. M. F. D. Syed Mustapha
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Trust in an organization has been perceived as one of the key factors behind knowledge sharing, mainly in an unstructured work environment. In an informal working environment, to instill trust among individuals is a challenge and even more in the virtual environment. The study has contributed in developing the framework for building trust in an unstructured organization in performing knowledge sharing in a virtual environment. The artifact called KAPE (Knowledge Acquisition, Processing, and Exchange) was developed for knowledge sharing for the informal organization where the framework was incorporated. It applies to Cassava farmers to facilitate knowledge sharing using web-based platform. A survey was conducted; data were collected from 382 farmers from 21 farm communities. Multiple regression technique, Cronbach’s Alpha reliability test; Tukey’s Honestly significant difference (HSD) analysis; one way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), and all trust acceptable measures (TAM) were used to test the hypothesis and to determine noteworthy relationships. The results show a significant difference when there is a trust in knowledge sharing between farmers, the ones who have high in trust acceptable factors found in the model (M = 3.66 SD = .93) and the ones who have low on trust acceptable factors (M = 2.08 SD = .28), (t (48) = 5.69, p = .00). Furthermore, when applying Cognitive Expectancy Theory, the farmers with cognitive-consonance show higher level of trust and satisfaction with knowledge and information from KAPE, as compared with a low level of cognitive-dissonance. These results imply that the adopted trust model KAPE positively improved knowledge sharing activities in an informal environment amongst rural farmers.Keywords: trust, knowledge, sharing, knowledge acquisition, processing and exchange, KAPE
Procedia PDF Downloads 1211525 The Influence of Moisture Conditioning on Hamburg Wheel Tracking Test Results
Authors: Hussain Al-Baghli
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The Hamburg Wheel Tracking Test (HWTT) was conducted to evaluate the resistance to moisture damage of two asphalt mixtures: an optimized rubberized asphalt mixture and an HMA mix with anti-stripping additives. The mixtures were subjected to varying numbers of moisture conditioning cycles and then tested for rutting depth. The results showed that the optimized rubberized asphalt mixture met the requirements for medium to heavy traffic in accordance with Kuwait's Ministry of Public Works specification. The number of moisture conditioning cycles did not significantly impact rutting development for the rubberized asphalt. The HMA asphalt samples showed a significant reduction in strength and did not satisfy the HWTT criteria after the moisture conditioning cycles.Keywords: rubberized asphalt, Hamburg wheel tracking, antistripping, moisture conditioning
Procedia PDF Downloads 791524 Wood Diversity and Carbon Stock in Evergreen Forests in Cameroon: Case of the Ngambe-Ndom-Nyanon Communal Forest
Authors: Maffo Maffo Nicole Liliane, Mounmemi Kpoumie Hubert, Libalah Moses, Ouandji Angele, Zapfack Louis
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Forest degradation causes biodiversity and carbon loss and thus indirectly contributes to climate change. In order to assess the contribution of forests to climate change mitigation, the present study was conducted in the Ngambe-Ndom-Nyanon Communal Forest with the main objective of assessing the floristic diversity and estimating the carbon stock in the different reservoirs of the said forest. Nine plots of 2000 m² each were installed in 3 TOSs of the forest (young secondary forests, gallery forests and fallow lands) with a total area of 18,000 m² or 1,8 ha. All trees with a Diameter at Breast Height (DBH) ≥ 5 cm were inventoried at 1.30 m from the ground in each plot. Species richness, floristic diversity indices, and structural parameters were studied. 1542 trees divided into 162 species, 122 genera and 44 families were identified. The most important families were listed: Myristicaceae (30.22%), Apocynaceae (25.20%), Fabaceae (24.41%), Euphorbiaceae (22.91%) and Phyllanthaceae (20.23%). The richest genera are: Cola, Macaranga, Oncoba (4 species each); the genera Diospyros, Trichilia, Vitex and Zanthoxylum (3 species each). The ecologically important species within the forest studied are: Funtumia africana (26.14%), Coelocaryon preussii (18.46%), Pycnanthus angolensis (15.57%), Tabernaemontana crassa (14.85%) and Olax subscorpioidea (13.04%). Assessment of carbon stocks in the six forest reservoirs studied (living trees and roots, understorey, dead wood, litter and rootlets) shows that they vary according to the land-use types. It is 119.41 t.C.ha-¹ in gallery forest, 115.2 t.C.ha-¹ in young secondary forest and 90.56 t.C.ha-¹ in fallow. The Wilcoxon statistical test shows that the carbon in the young secondary forest is identical to that in the fallow, which is identical to the carbon in the gallery forest. At the individual species level, the largest diameter class [25-35[ sequesters the most carbon (232.94 tC/ha). This work shows that the quantity of carbon sequestered by a biotope is a function of the age of the stand.Keywords: floristic diversity, carbon stocks, evergreen forests, communal forest, Ngambé-Ndom-Nyanon
Procedia PDF Downloads 541523 Integrated Farming Barns as a Strategy for National Food Security
Authors: Ilma Ulfatul Janah, Ibnu Rizky Briwantara, Muhammad Afif
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The agricultural sector is one of the sectors that contribute to national development. The benefit of the agricultural sector can be felt directly by the majority of Indonesian people. Indonesia is one of the agricultural countries and most of the people working in the agricultural sector. Hence, the agricultural sector’s become the second sector which has contributed greatly to the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) after the manufacture sector. Based on the National Medium Term Development Plan (RPJMN) from 2015 to 2019, one of the targets to be achieved by the Indonesian government is rice’s self-sufficient. Rice is the main food commodities which as most people in Indonesia, and it is making Indonesian government attempt self-sufficient in rice. Indonesia as an agricultural country becomes one of the countries that have a lower percentage of food security than other ASEAN countries. Rice self-sufficiency can be created through agricultural productivity and the availability of a market for the output. There are some problems still to be faced by the farmers such as farmer exchange rate is low. The low exchange rate of farmers showed that the level of the welfare’s Indonesian farmers is still low. The aims of this paper are to resolve problems related to food security and improve the welfare of the national rice farmers. The method by using materials obtained from the analysis of secondary data with the descriptive approach and conceptual framework. Integrated Farmers barn raising rice production is integrated and managed by the government coupled with the implementation of technology in the form of systems connected and accessible to farmers, namely 'SIBUNGTAN'.Keywords: agriculture, self-sufficiency, technology, productivity
Procedia PDF Downloads 2531522 In and Out-Of-Sample Performance of Non Simmetric Models in International Price Differential Forecasting in a Commodity Country Framework
Authors: Nicola Rubino
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This paper presents an analysis of a group of commodity exporting countries' nominal exchange rate movements in relationship to the US dollar. Using a series of Unrestricted Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive models (SETAR), we model and evaluate sixteen national CPI price differentials relative to the US dollar CPI. Out-of-sample forecast accuracy is evaluated through calculation of mean absolute error measures on the basis of two-hundred and fifty-three months rolling window forecasts and extended to three additional models, namely a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTAR), an additive non linear autoregressive model (AAR) and a simple linear Neural Network model (NNET). Our preliminary results confirm presence of some form of TAR non linearity in the majority of the countries analyzed, with a relatively higher goodness of fit, with respect to the linear AR(1) benchmark, in five countries out of sixteen considered. Although no model appears to statistically prevail over the other, our final out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that SETAR models tend to have quite poor relative forecasting performance, especially when compared to alternative non-linear specifications. Finally, by analyzing the implied half-lives of the > coefficients, our results confirms the presence, in the spirit of arbitrage band adjustment, of band convergence with an inner unit root behaviour in five of the sixteen countries analyzed.Keywords: transition regression model, real exchange rate, nonlinearities, price differentials, PPP, commodity points
Procedia PDF Downloads 2801521 Identifying the Traditional Color Scheme in Decorative Patterns Used by the Bahnar Ethnic Group in the Central Highlands of Vietnam
Authors: Nguyen Viet Tan
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The Bahnar is one of 11 indigenous groups living in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. It is one among the four most popular groups in this area, including the Mnong who speak the same language of Mon Khmer family, while both groups of the Jrai and the Rhade belong to the Malayo-Polynesian language family. These groups once captured fertile plateaus, left their cultural and artistic heritage which affected the remaining small groups. Despite the difference in ethnic origins, these groups seem to share similar beliefs, customs and related folk arts after a very long time living beside each other. However, through an in-depth study, this paper points out the fact that the decorative patterns used by the Bahnar are different from the other ethnic groups, especially in color. Based on historical materials from the local museums and some studies in 1980s when all of the ethnic groups in this area had still lived in self-sufficient condition, this paper characterizes the traditional color scheme used by the Bahnar and identifies the difference in decorative motifs of this group compared to the others by pointing out they do not use green in their usual decorative patterns. Moreover, combined with some field surveys recently, through comparative analysis, it also discovers stylistic variations of these patterns in the process of cultural exchange with the other ethnic groups, both in and out of the region, in modern living conditions. This study helps to preserve and promote the traditional values and cultural identity of the Bahnar people in the Central Highlands of Vietnam, avoiding the fusion of styles among groups during the cultural exchange.Keywords: Bahnar ethnic group, decorative patterns, the central highlands of Vietnam, the traditional color scheme
Procedia PDF Downloads 1251520 Diasporic Literature
Authors: Shamsher Singh
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The Diaspora Literature involves a concept of native land, from where the displacement occurs and a record of harsh journeys undertaken on account of economic compulsions. Basically, Diaspora is a splintered community living in eviction. The scattering (initially) signifies the location of a fluid human autonomous space involving a complex set of negotiations and exchange between the nostalgia and desire for the native land and the making of a new home, adapting to the relationships between the minority and majority, being spokes persons for minority rights and their people back native place and significantly transacting the Contact Zone - a space changed with the possibility of multiple challenges. They write in the background of the sublime qualities of their homeland and, at the same time, try to fit themselves into the traditions and cultural values of other strange communities or land. It also serves as an interconnection of the various cultures involved, and it is used to understand the customs of different cultures and countries; it is also a source of inspiration globally. Although diasporic literature originated back in the 20th century, it spread to other countries like Britain, Canada, America, Denmark, Netherland, Australia, Kenya, Sweden, Kuwait and different parts of Europe. Meaning of Diaspora is the combination of two words which means the movement of people away from their own country or motherland. From a historical point of view, the ‘Diaspora’ is often associated with Jewish bigotry. At the moment, the Diaspora is used for the dispersal of social or cultural groups. This group will be living in two different streams of cultures at the same time. One who left behind his culture and the other has to adapt himself to new cultural situations. The diasporic mind hangs between his birth land and place of work at the same time. A person’s mental state, living in dual existence, gives birth to Dysphoria sensation. Litterateurs had different experiences in this type of sensation e.g., social, universal, political, economic and experiences from the strange land. The struggle of these experiences is seen in diasporic literature. When a person moves to different land or country to fulfill his dreams, the discrimination of language, work and other difficulties with strangers make his relationship more emotional and deeper into his past. These past memories and relations create more difficulties in settling in a foreign land. He lives there physically, but his mental state is in his past constantly, and he ends up his life in those background memories. A person living in Diaspora is actually a dual visionary man. Although this double vision expands his global consciousness, due to this vision, he gains judgemental qualities to understand others. At the same time, he weighs his respect for his native land and the situations of foreign land he experiences, and he finds it difficult to survive in those conditions. It can be said that diaspora literature indicates a person or social organization who lives dual life inquisition structure which becomes the cause of diasporic literature.Keywords: homeland sickness, language problem, quest for identity, materialistic desire
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