Search results for: risk factor prevention paradigm

Authors: Saeed Javaherzadeh, Babak Dindar Safa

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Structure, given its ductility, can depreciate significant amount of seismic energy in the form of hysteresis behavior; the amount of energy depreciation depends on the structure ductility rate. So in seismic guidelines such as ASCE7-10 code, to reduce the number of design forces and using the seismic energy dissipation capacity of structure, when entering non-linear behavior range of the materials, the response modification factor is used. Various parameters such as ductility modification factor, overstrength factor and reliability factor, are effective in determining the value of this factor. Also, gradually, energy dissipation systems, especially added dampers, have become an inseparable part of the seismic design. In this paper, in addition to reviewing of previous studies, using the response modification factor caused by using more added viscoelastic dampers, a new design method has introduced for steel moment-frame with added dampers installed. To do this, in addition to using bilinear behavior models and quick ways such as using the equivalent lateral force method and capacity spectrum method for the proposed design methodology, the results has been controlled with non-linear time history analysis for a number of structural. The analysis is done by Opensees Software.

Keywords: added viscoelastic damper, design base shear, response modification factor, non-linear time history

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Authors: Irena Paramita Pramono

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Islamic bank is a financial industry with huge potential to grow in Indonesia. Profit-sharing agreement in the operations of Islamic banks distinguishes Islamic banks with conventional banks. Profit-sharing agreement allows sharing of benefits and risks between shahibul maal and mudharib in islamic bank. This study aimed to observe the patterns of influence between the risk-sharing agreement, financing risk and Profitability in Islamic banks. This research used several Islamic banks as sample and path analysis method. The empirical results of this research shows that the profit-sharing agreement in deposits structure has no direct significant effect to ROA, but it has indirect effect to ROA through profit-sharing financing. On the other hand, profit-sharing financing has direct and indirect influence to ROA through financing risk. This research shows that profit-sharing financing has a positive significant effect to the financing risk and also to the ROA. The research recommends Islamic banks to continue using and developing profit-sharing agreement in its operational activities, hence to create value.

Keywords: Islamic bank, profit-loss sharing agreement, financing risk, profitability

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Authors: Katalin Bodor, Zsolt Bodor, Robert Szep

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The particulate matter (PM) smaller than 2.5 μm are less studied due to the limited availability of PM₂.₅, and less information is available on the health effects attributable to PM₁₀ in Central-Eastern Europe. The objective of the current study was to assess the human health risk and characterize the spatial and temporal variation of PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ in eight Romanian regions between the 2009-2018 and. The PM concentrations showed high variability over time and spatial distribution. The highest concentration was detected in the Bucharest region in the winter period, and the lowest was detected in West. The relative risk caused by the PM₁₀ for all-cause mortality varied between 1.017 (B) and 1.025 (W), with an average 1.020. The results demonstrate a positive relative risk of cardiopulmonary and lung cancer disease due to exposure to PM₂.₅ on the national average 1.26 ( ± 0.023) and 1.42 ( ± 0.037), respectively.

Keywords: PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, relative risk, health effect

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Authors: Li Long, Thomas Ortlepp

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A theoretical model for the optimization of thermopile sensor performance is developed for thermoelectric-based infrared radiation detection. It is shown that the performance of polycrystalline silicon film thermopile sensor can be optimized according to the thermoelectric quality factor, sensor layer structure factor, and sensor layout geometrical form factor. Based on the properties of electrons, phonons, grain boundaries, and their interactions, the thermoelectric quality factor of polycrystalline silicon is analyzed with the relaxation time approximation of the Boltzmann transport equation. The model includes the effect of grain structure, grain boundary trap properties, and doping concentration. The layer structure factor is analyzed with respect to the infrared absorption coefficient. The optimization of layout design is characterized by the form factor, which is calculated for different sensor designs. A double-layer polycrystalline silicon thermopile infrared sensor on a suspended membrane has been designed and fabricated with a CMOS-compatible process. The theoretical approach is confirmed by measurement results.

Keywords: polycrystalline silicon, relaxation time approximation, specific detectivity, thermal conductivity, thermopile infrared sensor

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Authors: Ifeyinwa Victor-Uadiale, Georgina Pearson, Sophie Witter, D. Reidpath

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Introduction: Smoking, alcohol misuse, unhealthy diet, and physical inactivity are the primary drivers of noncommunicable diseases (NCD), including cardiovascular diseases, cancers, respiratory diseases, and diabetes, worldwide. Collectively, these diseases are the leading cause of all global deaths, most of which are premature, affecting people between 30 and 70 years. Empirical evidence suggests that these risk behaviors can be modified by community-based interventions (CBI). However, there is little insight into the mechanisms and contextual factors of successful community interventions that impact risk behaviours for chronic diseases. This study examined “Under what circumstances, for whom, and how, do community-based interventions modify smoking, alcohol use, unhealthy diet, and physical inactivity among adults”. Adopting the Capability (C), Opportunity (O), Motivation (M), Behavior (B) (COM-B) framework for behaviour change, it sought to: (1) identify the mechanisms through which CBIs could reduce tobacco use and alcohol consumption and increase physical activity and the consumption of healthy diets and (2) examine the contextual factors that trigger the impact of these mechanisms on these risk behaviours among adults. Methods: Pawson’s realist review method was used to examine the literature. Empirical evidence and theoretical understanding were combined to develop a realist program theory that explains how CBIs influence NCD risk behaviours. Documents published between 2002 and 2020 were systematically searched in five electronic databases (CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Medline, ProQuest Central, and PsycINFO). They were included if they reported on community-based interventions aimed at cardiovascular diseases, cancers, respiratory diseases, and diabetes in a global context; and had an outcome targeted at smoking, alcohol, physical activity, and diet. Findings: Twenty-nine scientific documents were retrieved and included in the review. Over half of them (n = 18; 62%) focused on three of the four risk behaviours investigated in this review. The review identified four mechanisms: capability, opportunity, motivation, and social support that are likely to change the dietary and physical activity behaviours in adults given certain contexts. There were weak explanations of how the identified mechanisms could likely change smoking and alcohol consumption habits. In addition, eight contextual factors that may affect how these mechanisms impact physical activity and dietary behaviours were identified: suitability to work and family obligations, risk status awareness, socioeconomic status, literacy level, perceived need, availability and access to resources, culture, and group format. Conclusion: The findings suggest that CBIs are likely to improve the physical activity and dietary habits of adults if the intervention function seeks to educate, incentivize, change the environment, and model the right behaviours. The review applies and advances theory, realist research, and the design and implementation of community-based interventions for NCD prevention.

Keywords: community-based interventions, noncommunicable disease, realist program theory, risk behaviors

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Authors: Naveed Ali

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Under the construct of the ‘traditional family’ set-up (male and female parent) in the United Kingdom, the absence of a male parental figure remains a critical factor associated with an elevated risk of criminal behavior among youths. Empirical evidence suggests that father absence significantly correlates with increased rates of juvenile delinquency and criminality. For instance, data reveals that approximately 63% of young offenders in the United Kingdom originate from single-parent households, predominantly those without a father. Moreover, research displays that boys from father-absent homes are three times more likely to exhibit antisocial behavior compared to their peers from two-parent families. This absence can negatively impact educational attainment, with children from fatherless homes being twice as likely to leave school prematurely, thereby increasing their vulnerability to peer influence and gang affiliation- key pathways into criminal activities. Both legal frameworks and social policies in the United Kingdom acknowledge the pivotal role of family stability in crime prevention. Initiatives including parenting support programs, community-based interventions, and targeted youth services seek to address the challenges faced by single-parent families and mitigate the criminogenic effects of father absence. Despite these efforts, persistent challenges remain, including the need to address the broader socioeconomic determinants of family instability and to refine legal strategies that effectively address the root causes of youth offending linked to the absence of a male parental figure. A nuanced understanding of these dynamics is essential for developing more effective legal and social interventions aimed at reducing juvenile delinquency and supporting at-risk populations within the United Kingdom. This paper will highlight the significant impact of the absence of a male parental figure on youth crime rates in the United Kingdom, underlining the need for enhanced legal and social responses. By examining the interplay between family structure and juvenile offending, the paper will underline the importance of developing more comprehensive interventions that address both familial factors and the wider socioeconomic context. The findings aim to guide policymakers and practitioners in creating more effective strategies to reduce youth crime, ultimately strengthening support systems for vulnerable families and mitigating the adverse effects of father absence on young individuals.

Keywords: criminality, family law, legal framework, the united kingdom perspective

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Authors: Longqing Li

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The paper addresses the inefficiency of the classical model in measuring the Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a normal distribution or a Student’s t distribution. Specifically, the paper focuses on the one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) of major stock market’s daily returns in US, UK, China and Hong Kong in the most recent ten years under 95% confidence level. To improve the predictable power and search for the best performing model, the paper proposes using two leading alternatives, Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and a family of GARCH models, and compares the relative performance. The main contribution could be summarized in two aspects. First, the paper extends the GARCH family model by incorporating EGARCH and TGARCH to shed light on the difference between each in estimating one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR). Second, to account for the non-normality in the distribution of financial markets, the paper applies Generalized Error Distribution (GED), instead of the normal distribution, to govern the innovation term. A dynamic back-testing procedure is employed to assess the performance of each model, a family of GARCH and the conditional EVT. The conclusion is that Exponential GARCH yields the best estimate in out-of-sample one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting. Moreover, the discrepancy of performance between the GARCH and the conditional EVT is indistinguishable.

Keywords: Value-at-Risk, Extreme Value Theory, conditional EVT, backtesting

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Authors: Adel Bessadok

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The theory of values postulates that each human has a set of values, or attractive and trans-situational goals, that drive their actions. The Basic Human Values as an incentive construct that apprehends human's values have been shown to govern a wide range of human behaviors. Individuals within and within societies have very different value preferences that reflect their enculturation, their personal experiences, their social places and their genetic heritage. Using a focus group composed by Islamic religious Preachers and a sample of 800 young students; this ongoing study will establish Moderate Islamic Values parameters. We analyze later, for the same students sample the difference between Moderate Islamic Values and Schwartz’s Basic Human Values. Keywords—Moderate Islamic Values, Basic Human Values, Exploratory Factor Analysis and Confirmatory Factor Analysis.

Keywords: moderate Islamic values, basic human values, exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis

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Authors: Asieh Abbassi Daloii, Ahmad Abdi

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Introduction: Sports information suggests that physical inactivity increases the risk of many diseases, including atherosclerosis. Coronary heart disease, stroke and peripheral vascular disease, atherosclerosis and clinical protests. However, exercise can have beneficial effects on risk factors for atherosclerosis by reducing hyperlipidemia, hypertension, obesity, plaque density, increased insulin sensitivity and glucose tolerance is improved. Despite these findings, there is little information about the molecular mechanisms of interaction between the body and its relation to sport and there arteriosclerosis. The present study aims to investigate the effect of six weeks of progressive aerobic training and aqueous extract of crataegus monogyna on vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) variations and angiopoetin-1/2 (ANG- 1/2) in plasma and heart tissue in male Wistar rats. Methods: 30 male Wistar rats, 4-6 months old, were randomly divided into four groups: control crataegus monogyna (N=8), training crataegus monogyna (N=8), control saline (N=6), and training saline (N=8). The aerobic training program included running on treadmill at the speed of 34 meters per minute for 60 minutes per day. The training was conducted for six weeks, five days a week. Following each training session, both experimental and control subjects of crataegus monogyna groups were orally fed with 0.5 mg crataegus monogyna extract per gram of the body weight. The normal saline group was given the same amount of the normal saline solution (NS). Eventually, 72 hours after the last training session, blood samples were taken from inferior Verna cava. Conclusion: It is likely that crataegus monogyna extract compared with aerobic training and even combination of both training and crataegus monogyna extract is more effective on angiogenesis.

Keywords: angiopoietin 1, 2, vascular endothelial growth factor, aerobic exercise

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Authors: Rahmoune Abdelhaq

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Systemic risk is a key concern for central banks charged with safeguarding overall financial stability. In this work, we investigate how systemic risk is affected by the structure of the financial system. We construct banking systems that are composed of a number of banks that are connected by interbank linkages. We then vary the key parameters that define the structure of the financial system — including its level of capitalization, the degree to which banks are connected, the size of interbank exposures and the degree of concentration of the system — and analyses the influence of these parameters on the likelihood of contagious (knock-on) defaults. First, we find that the better-capitalized banks are, the more resilient is the banking system against contagious defaults and this effect is non-linear. Second, the effect of the degree of connectivity is non-monotonic, that is, initially a small increase in connectivity increases the contagion effect; but after a certain threshold value, connectivity improves the ability of a banking system to absorb shocks. Third, the size of interbank liabilities tends to increase the risk of knock-on default, even if banks hold capital against such exposures. Fourth, more concentrated banking systems are shown to be prone to larger systemic risk, all else equal. In an extension to the main analysis, we study how liquidity effects interact with banking structure to produce a greater chance of systemic breakdown. We finally consider how the risk of contagion might depend on the degree of asymmetry (tier) inherent in the structure of the banking system. A number of our results have important implications for public policy, which this paper also draws out. This paper also discusses why bank risk management is needed to get the optimal one.

Keywords: financial stability, contagion, liquidity risk, optimal risk

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Authors: Ezeabasili Chibuike Patrick

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The complex situation of construction industries in Nigeria and the risk of failures involved includes cost overrun, time overrun, Corruption, Government influence, Subcontractor challenges, Political influence and Instability, Cultural differences, Human resources deficiencies, cash flow Challenges, foreign exchange issues, inadequate design, Safety, low productivity, late payment, Quality control issues, project management issues, Environmental issues, Force majeure Competition amongst others has made the industry prone to risk and failures. Good project management remains effective in improving decision-making, which minimizes these risk events. This study was done to address these project risks and good decision-making to avert them. A mixed-method approach to research was used to do this study. Data collected by questionnaires and interviews on thirty-two (32) construction professionals was used in analyses to aid the knowledge and management of risks that were identified. The study revealed that there is no good risk management expertise in Nigeria. Also, that the economic/political situation and the recent COVID-19 pandemic has added to the risk and poor management strategies. The contingency theory and cost has therefore surfaced to be the most strategic management method used to reduce these risk issues and they seem to be very effective.

Keywords: strategies, risk management, contingency theory, Nigeria

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Authors: E. Erdogan, H. A. Erdogan

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FengShui, an old Chinese discipline, dates back to more than 5000 years, is one of the design principles that aim at creating habitable and sustainable spaces in harmony with nature by systematizing data within its own structure. Having emerged from Chinese mysticism and embodying elements of faith in its principles, FengShui argues that the positive energy in the environment channels human behavior and psychology. This argument is supported with the thesis of quantum physics that ‘everything is made up of energy’ and gains an important place. In spaces where living and working take place with several principles and systematized rules, FengShui promises a happier, more peaceful and comfortable life by influencing human psychology, acts, and soul as well as the professional and social life of the individual. Observing these design properties in houses, workplaces, offices, the environment, and daily life as a design paradigm is significant. In this study, how FengShui, a Central Asian culture emanated from Chinese mysticism, shapes design and how it is used as an element of sustainable design will be explained.

Keywords: Feng Shui, design principle, sustainability, philosophy

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Authors: Franziska Köhler-Dauner, Inka Mayer, Lara Hart, Ute Ziegenhain, Jörg M. Fegert

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Preventive isolation and social distancing strategies during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic have confronted families with a variety of different restrictions and stresses. Especially during this stressful time, children need a stable parental home to avoid developmental disorders. Additional risk factors such as maternal childhood abuse and neglect (CM) experiences may influence mothers' psychosomatic health (pG) and children's physical well-being (kW) during times of increased stress. Our aim was to analyse the interaction between maternal CM, maternal pG and children's kW during the pandemic. Mothers from a well-documented birth cohort to study transgenerational transmission of CM, were included in an online 'pandemic' survey assessing maternal pG and children's physical health during the pandemic. Our mediation analysis showed a significant positive association between the extent of maternal CM experiences, mothers' psychosomatic symptoms and their children's kW. Maternal psychosomatic symptoms significantly mediate the interaction between CM and children's kW; the direct effect remains non-significant when maternal psychosomatic symptoms are included as mediators. Maternal CM appears to be a relevant risk factor for maternal pG and children's kW during the pandemic. Maternal CM experiences seem to influence the way parents cope with stressful situations and increase the risk of suffering from depressive symptoms. The latter also affect their children's kW. Our findings underline the importance of carefully assessing the specific situation of families with children and offering individually adapted help to help families survive the pandemic.

Keywords: pandemic, maternal health, child health, abuse, neglect, maternal experiences

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Authors: Ingrid van der Heijden, Kristen Dunkle, Rachel Jewkes

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Background: Emerging literature on prevalence shows that men with disabilities are four more times likely than men without disabilities to experience sexual violence during their lifetime. However, compared to women with disabilities, men with disabilities still have lesser experiences of violence. While empirical evidence on the prevalence of victimization of men with disabilities is emerging, there is scarcer evidence highlighting disabled men’s perpetration of different forms of violence, particularly intimate partner violence. We can assume that men are likely to be both perpetrators and victims of violence, making more complex the causes and risks of violence. Gender norms and disability stigma play important roles in men’s experiences of violence. Men may be stigmatized because of their inability to attain hegemonic masculine ideals of strength, control over women and sexual conquest, which makes them more susceptible to emotional, physical and sexual abuse. Little to no evidence exists of men with disabilities’ experiences of perpetration of intimate partner violence, family violence or community violence. So far studies on male victimization do not succeed to offer contextual evidence that would highlight why and how men with disabilities perpetrate and/or are victims of sexual or other forms of violence. Objective: The overall aim to highlight men with disabilities’ experiences of both victimization and perpetration, and how living up to normative and hegemonic ideals of masculinity and ‘ability’ shape their experiences. It will include: identifying how gender and impairments intersect and shape their experiences of violence; identifying the contexts of and risks for violence; identifying the impacts and consequences of violence on their lives (including mental health impacts), and identifying obstacles and enablers to support and interventions to prevent violence. Methodology: In-depth qualitative interviews with 20 men with disabilities participating in interventions conducted by the What Works Global Programme for violence prevention (DIFD) in Africa and Asia. Men with a range of disabilities will be invited to share their lifetime experiences of violence. Implications for Practice: The data from this study will be used to start thinking about strategies to include men with disabilities in violence prevention strategies for both men and women. Limitations: Because men will be participating in interventions, it is assumed that they will not have severe impairments that hamper their cognitive or physical ability to participate in the intervention activities - and therefore will be able to participate in the in-depth interviews. Of course, this is a limitation of the study as it does not include those men with severe disabilities – measured by the World Health Organization’s International Classification of Functioning - who may be more vulnerable and at higher risk of experiencing violence, and who are less likely to be able to access services and interventions.

Keywords: gender, men with disabilities, perpetration of violence, victimization

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Authors: Khaled Alkadamani

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Using the simultaneous equations model, this paper examines the impact of capital requirements on bank risk-taking during the recent financial crisis. It also explores the relationship between capital and risk decisions and the impact of economic instability on this relationship. By analyzing the data of 20 Islamic commercial banks between 2004 and 2014 from four Middle East countries, the study concludes a positive effect of regulatory pressure on bank capital in Saudi Arabia and UAE and a negative effect in Jordan and Kuwait. Moreover, the results show a negative impact of regulatory pressure on bank risk taking in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and UAE. The findings reveal also that banks close to the minimum regulatory capital requirements improve their capital adequacy by increasing their capital and decreasing their risk taking. Furthermore, the results show that economic crisis negatively affects bank risk changes, suggesting that banks react to the impact of uncertainty by reducing their risk taking. Finally, the estimations show a negative correlation between banks profitability and capital adequacy ratio (CAR), implying that as more capital is set aside as a buffer for banks safety; it affects the performance of Islamic banks.

Keywords: bank capital, bank regulation, crisis, Islamic banks, risk taking

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Authors: Krzysztof J. Czarnocki, F. Silveira, E. Czarnocka, K. Szaniawska

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Research background: Problems related to the occupational health and decreasing level of safety occur commonly in the construction industry. Important factor in the occupational safety in construction industry is scaffold use. All scaffolds used in construction, renovation, and demolition shall be erected, dismantled and maintained in accordance with safety procedure. Increasing demand for new construction projects unfortunately still is linked to high level of occupational accidents. Therefore, it is crucial to implement concrete actions while dealing with scaffolds and risk assessment in construction industry, the way on doing assessment and liability of assessment is critical for both construction workers and regulatory framework. Unfortunately, professionals, who tend to rely heavily on their own experience and knowledge when taking decisions regarding risk assessment, may show lack of reliability in checking the results of decisions taken. Purpose of the article: The aim was to indicate crucial parameters that could be modeling with Risk Assessment Model (RAM) use for improving both building enterprise productivity and/or developing potential and safety climate. The developed RAM could be a benefit for predicting high-risk construction activities and thus preventing accidents occurred based on a set of historical accident data. Methodology/Methods: A RAM has been developed for assessing risk levels as various construction process stages with various work trades impacting different spheres of enterprise activity. This project includes research carried out by teams of researchers on over 60 construction sites in Poland and Portugal, under which over 450 individual research cycles were carried out. The conducted research trials included variable conditions of employee exposure to harmful physical and chemical factors, variable levels of stress of employees and differences in behaviors and habits of staff. Genetic modeling tool has been used for developing the RAM. Findings and value added: Common types of trades, accidents, and accident causes have been explored, in addition to suitable risk assessment methods and criteria. We have found that the initial worker stress level is more direct predictor for developing the unsafe chain leading to the accident rather than the workload, or concentration of harmful factors at the workplace or even training frequency and management involvement.

Keywords: safety climate, occupational health, civil engineering, productivity

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Authors: J. R. Wang, W. Y. Cheng, J. S. Yeh, S. W. Chen, Y. M. Ferng, J. H. Yang, W. S. Hsu, C. Shih

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To understand the risk for dry storage concrete casks in the cask loading, transfer, and storage phase, the purpose of this research is to establish the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) analysis methodology for dry storage concrete casks by using SAPHIRE 8 code. This analysis methodology is used to perform the study of Taiwan nuclear power plants (NPPs) dry storage system. The process of research has three steps. First, the data of the concrete casks and Taiwan NPPs are collected. Second, the PRA analysis methodology is developed by using SAPHIRE 8. Third, the PRA analysis is performed by using this methodology. According to the analysis results, the maximum risk is the multipurpose canister (MPC) drop case.

Keywords: PRA, dry storage, concrete cask, SAPHIRE

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Authors: Abdessalem Abbassi, Ahlem Dakhlaoui, Lota D. Tamini

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This article analyses management of hydropower dams within two different industrial structures: monopolistic and oligopolistic; when hydroelectricity producers are risk averse and face demand uncertainty. In each type of market structure we determine the water release path in closed-loop equilibrium. We show how a monopoly can manage its hydropower dams by additional pumping or storage depending on the relative abundance of water between different regions to smooth the effect of uncertainty on electricity prices. In the oligopolistic case with symmetric rates of risk aversion, we determine the conditions under which the relative scarcity (abundance) of water in the dam of a hydroelectric operator can favor additional strategic pumping (storage) in its competitor’s dams. When there is asymmetry of the risk aversion coefficient, the firm’s hydroelectricity production increases as its competitor’s risk aversion increases, if and only if the average recharge speed of the competitor’s dam exceeds a certain threshold, which is an increasing function of its average water inflows.

Keywords: asymmetric risk aversion, closed-loop Cournot competition, electricity wholesale market, hydropower dams

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Authors: Mojtaba Sadeghi, Farshid Baniassadi, Hamed Kashani

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One of the challenging issues faced by seismic retrofitting consultants and employers is quick decision-making on the demolition or retrofitting of a structure at the current time or in the future. For this reason, the existing models proposed by researchers have only covered one of the aspects of cost, execution method, and structural vulnerability. Given the effect of each factor on the final decision, it is crucial to devise a new comprehensive model capable of simultaneously covering all the factors. This study attempted to provide an integrated framework that can be utilized to select the most appropriate earthquake risk mitigation solution for buildings. This framework can overcome the limitations of current models by taking into account several factors such as cost, execution method, risk-taking and structural failure. In the newly proposed model, the database and essential information about retrofitting projects are developed based on the historical data on a retrofit project. In the next phase, an analysis is conducted in order to assess the vulnerability of the building under study. Then, artificial neural networks technique is employed to calculate the cost of retrofitting. While calculating the current price of the structure, an economic analysis is conducted to compare demolition versus retrofitting costs. At the next stage, the optimal method is identified. Finally, the implementation of the framework was demonstrated by collecting data concerning 155 previous projects.

Keywords: decision making, demolition, construction management, seismic retrofit

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Authors: Bavneet Kaur Sidhu, Manoj Tiwari

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Global Developmental Delay (GDD) is a common pediatric condition. Etiologies of GDD might, however, differ in developing countries. In the last decade, sporadic families are being reported in various countries. As to the author’s best knowledge, many risk factors and their correlation with the prevalence of GDD have been studied but its statistical correlation has not been done. Thus we propose the present study by targeting the risk factor, prevalence and their statistical correlation with GDD. FMR1 gene was studied to confirm the disease and its penetrance. A complete questionnaire-based performance was designed for the statistical studies having a personal, past and present medical history along with their socio-economic status as well. Methods: We distributed the children’s age in 4 different age groups having 5-year intervals and applied structural equation modeling (SEM) techniques, Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, Karl Pearson correlation coefficient, and chi-square test.Result: A total of 1100 families were enrolled for this study; among them, 330 were clinically and biologically confirmed (radiological studies) for the disease, 204 were males (61.8%), 126 were females (38.18%). We found that 27.87% were genetic and 72.12 were sporadic, out of 72.12 %, 43.277% cases from urban and 56.72% from the rural locality, the mothers' literacy rate was 32.12% and working women numbers were 41.21%. Conclusions: There is a significant association between mothers' age and GDD prevalence, which is also followed by mothers' literacy rate and mothers' occupation, whereas there was no association between fathers' age and GDD.

Keywords: global developmental delay, FMR1 gene, spearman’ rank correlation coefficient, structural equation modeling

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Authors: Sibusiso Buthelezi, Rugira Regis Marie-Modeste, Deliwe Rene Phetlhu

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Introduction: Mother-to-child transmission persists owing to inadequate implementation of prevention of mother-to-child transmission programmes, particularly in rural areas. To achieve a target of zero new HIV infection in children born from women living with HIV, the involvement of mothers and caregivers is undeniable. Therefore, there is a need to explore the views of the mothers because of the role they play in their own right when it comes to preventing their children from contracting HIV by consistently adhering to the guidelines of the prevention of mother-to-child transmission programme. Thus, this study sought to explore and describe the perceptions of mothers on their role in the prevention of HIV to their children exposed to HIV and further explore their perceptions of the childcare received in the healthcare facility. Methods: The study was conducted in November-December 2019 in Ngaka Modiri Molema in North West Province in South Africa. A qualitative exploratory, descriptive research design was used. Purposive sampling was used to select the mothers of children exposed to HIV during the mother`s clinic attendance. Data collection was done through semi-structured individual interviews with mothers of children exposed to HIV. Colaizzi`s method of data analysis was used to analyse data in this study. Results: Seven themes emerged from data analysis, namely: health benefits from coming to the healthcare facility, communication, information needs, attitude of healthcare workers, healthcare administration system, the role of a mother, and disclosure of HIV status. Conclusion: This study revealed systematic gaps that exist in the programme, which hinder the childcare services of children exposed to HIV and socio-economically related hindrances. Mothers’ roles, such as exclusive breastfeeding, taking their own medication, and child follow-up visits, remain inadequate. The study findings show that there is a need to develop a contextual-tailored intervention strategy that would improve the implementation of prevention of mother-to-child transmission in rural areas.

Keywords: children exposed to HIV, mothers’ role to prevent MTCT, mothers’ perceptions on childcare, PMTCT in rural areas

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Authors: B. Sadek, N. Khan, Shreesh K. Ojha, Adel Sadeq, D. Lazewska, K. Kiec-Kononowicz

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The involvement of Histamine H3 receptors (H3Rs) in memory and the potential role of H3R antagonists in pharmacological control of neurodegenerative disorders, e.g., Alzheimer disease (AD) is well established. Therefore, the memory-enhancing effects of the H3R antagonist DL77 on MK801-induced cognitive deficits were evaluated in passive avoidance paradigm (PAP) and novel object recognition (NOR) tasks in adult male rats, applying donepezil (DOZ) as a reference drug. Animals pretreated with acute systemic administration of DL77 (2.5, 5, and 10 mg/kg, i.p.) were significantly ameliorated in regard to MK801-induced memory deficits in PAP. The ameliorative effect of most effective dose of DL77 (5 mg/kg, i.p.) was abrogated when animals were pretreated with a co-injection with the H3R agonist R-(α)-methylhistamine (RAMH, 10 mg/kg, i.p.). Moreover, and in the NOR paradigm, DL77 (5 mg/kg, i.p.) reversed MK801-induced deficits long-term memory (LTM), and the DL77-provided procognitive effect was comparable to that of reference drug DOZ, and was reversed when animals were co-injected with RAMH (10 mg/kg, i.p.). However, DL77(5 mg/kg, i.p.) failed to alter short-term memory (STM) impairment in NOR test. Furthermore, DL77 (5 mg/kg) failed to induce any alterations of anxiety and locomotor behaviors of animals naive to elevated-plus maze (EPM), indicating that the ameliorative effects observed in PAP or NOR tests were not associated to alterations in emotions or in natural locomotion of tested animals. These results reveal the potential contribution of H3Rs in modulating CNS neurotransmission systems associated with neurodegenerative disorders, e.g., AD.

Keywords: histamine H3 receptor, antagonist, learning and memory, Alzheimer's disease, neurodegeneration, passive avoidance paradigm, novel object recognition, behavioral research

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Authors: Guo Rui, Cao Xinhu

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In recent decades, the world has endured severe challenges in light of climate change, epidemics, geopolitics, terrorism, economic uncertainties, as well as regional conflicts and rivalries. The appropriate use of critical infrastructures (Cis) is confronted. Ports, as typical Cis cover more than 80% of the global freight movement. Within this context, even the minimal disruption of port operations could cause malfunction of the holistic supply chain network and substantial economic losses. Hence, it is crucial to evaluate port performance from the perspective of resilience. Research on resilience and risk/safety management has been increasing, however, it needs more attention, as it could prevent potential socio-economic losses and inspire decision-makers to make resilience-based decisions to answer the challenges, such as COVID-19. To facilitate better moves from decision-makers, ports need to identify proper factors influencing port resilience. Inappropriately influenced factor selection could have a cascading effect on undesirable port performances. Thus, a systematic evaluation of factors is essential to stimulate the improvement process of port resilience investigation. This study zooms into container ports considering their critical role in international trade and global supply chains. 440 articles are selected after relevance ranking, and consequently, 62 articles are scrutinized after the title and abstract screening. Forty-one articles are included for bibliographic analysis in the end. It is found that there is no standardized index system to measure port resilience. And most studies evaluate port resilience merely in the recovery phase. Only two articles cover absorption, adaption and recovery state. However, no literature involves the prevention state. Hence, a uniform resilience index system is expected with a clear resilience definition. And port safety and security should also be considered while evaluating port resilience.

Keywords: port resilience, port safety and security, literature review, index system, port performance

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Authors: Mikhail Zimin, Svetlana Zimina, Maxim Zimin

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Without question, the basic method of prevention of human and material losses is the provision for adequate strength of constructions. At the same time, seismic load has a stochastic character. So, at all times, there is little danger of earthquake forces exceeding the selected design load. This risk is very low, but the consequences of such events may be extremely serious. Very dangerous are also occasional mistakes in seismic zoning, soil conditions changing before temblors, and failure to take into account hazardous natural phenomena caused by earthquakes. Besides, it is known that temblors detrimentally affect the environmental situation in regions where they occur, resulting in panic and worsening various disease courses. It may lead to mistakes of personnel of hazardous production facilities like the production and distribution of gas and oil, which may provoke severe accidents. In addition, gas and oil pipelines often have long mileage and cross many perilous zones by contrast with buildings. This situation increases the risk of heavy accidents. In such cases, complex monitoring of potential earthquake localities would be relevant. Even though the number of successful real-time forecasts of earthquakes is not great, it is well in excess, such as may be under random guessing. Experimental performed time-lapse study and analysis consist of searching seismic, biological, meteorological, and light earthquake precursors, processing such data with the help of fuzzy sets, collecting weather information, utilizing a database of terrain, and computing risk of slope processes under the temblor in a given setting. Works were done in a real-time environment and broadly acceptable results took place. Observations from already in-place seismic recording systems are used. Furthermore, a look back study of precursors of known earthquakes is done. Situations before Ashkhabad, Tashkent, and Haicheng seismic events are analyzed. Fairish findings are obtained. Results of earthquake forecasts can be used for predicting dangerous natural phenomena caused by temblors such as avalanches and mudslides. They may also be utilized for prophylaxis of some diseases and their complications. Relevant software is worked out too. It should be emphasized that such control does not require serious financial expenses and can be performed by a small group of professionals. Thus, complex monitoring of potential earthquake localities, including short-term earthquake forecasts and analysis of possible hazardous consequences of temblors, may further the safety of pipeline facilities.

Keywords: risk, earthquake, monitoring, forecast, precursor

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Authors: Jacek Kabzinski, Karolina Przybylowska, Lukasz Dziki, Adam Dziki, Ireneusz Majsterek

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The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing from year to year. Despite intensive research CRC etiology remains unknown. Studies suggest that at the basis of the process of carcinogenesis can lie reduced efficiency of DNA repair mechanisms, often caused by polymorphisms in DNA repair genes. The aim of the study was to determine the relationship between gene polymorphisms Pro242Arg of PolB gene and Arg780His of Lig3 gene and modulation of the risk of colorectal cancer in the Polish population. Determination of the molecular basis of carcinogenesis process and predicting increased risk will allow qualifying patients to increased risk group and including them in preventive program. We used blood collected from 110 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer. The control group consisted of equal number of healthy people. Genotyping was performed by TaqMan method. The obtained results indicate that the genotype 780Arg/His of Lig3 gene is associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer. On the basis of these results, we conclude that Lig3 gene polymorphism Arg780His may be associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer.

Keywords: BER, colorectal cancer, PolB, Lig3, polymorphisms

Procedia PDF Downloads 454

Authors: Muhammad Ashfaq

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Main theme: This prime focus of this study is on the role of digital technology in crime prevention, with special focus on Cellular Forensic Unit, Capital City Police Peshawar-Khyber Pakhtunkhwa-Pakistan. Objective(s) of the study: The prime objective of this study is to provide statistics, strategies and pattern of analysis used for crime prevention in Cellular Forensic Unit of Capital City Police Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa-Pakistan. Research Method and Procedure: Qualitative method of research has been used in the study for obtaining secondary data from research wing and Information Technology (IT) section of Peshawar police. Content analysis was the method used for the conduction of the study. This study is delimited to Capital City Police and Cellular Forensic Unit Peshawar-KP, Pakistan. information technologies. Major finding(s): It is evident that the old traditional approach will never provide solutions for better management in controlling crimes. The best way to control crimes and promotion of proactive policing is to adopt new technologies. The study reveals that technology have transformed police more effective and vigilant as compared to traditional policing. The heinous crimes like abduction, missing of an individual, snatching, burglaries and blind murder cases are now traceable with the help of technology. Recommendation(s): From the analysis of the data, it is reflected that Information Technology (IT) expert should be recruited along with research analyst to timely assist and facilitate operational as well as investigation units of police.A mobile locator should be Provided to Cellular Forensic Unit to timely apprehend the criminals .Latest digital analysis software should be provided to equip the Cellular Forensic Unit.

Keywords: crime prevention, digital technology, pakistan, police

Procedia PDF Downloads 65

Authors: Othmane Zarhali, Cécilia Aubrun, Emmanuel Bacry, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Jean-François Muzy

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The Nested factor model was introduced by Bouchaud and al., where the asset return fluctuations are explained by common factors representing the market economic sectors and residuals (noises) sharing with the factors a common dominant volatility mode in addition to the idiosyncratic mode proper to each residual. This construction infers that the factors-residuals log volatilities are correlated. Here, we consider the case of a single factor where the only dominant common mode is a S-fbm process (introduced by Peng, Bacry and Muzy) with Hurst exponent H around 0.11 and the residuals having in addition to the previous common mode idiosyncratic components with Hurst exponents H around 0. The reason for considering this configuration is twofold: preserve the Nested factor model’s characteristics introduced by Bouchaud and al. and propose a framework through which the stylized fact reported by Peng and al. is reproduced, where it has been observed that the Hurst exponents of stock indices are large as compared to those of individual stocks. In this work, we show that the Log S-fbm Nested factor model’s construction leads to a Hurst exponent of single stocks being the ones of the idiosyncratic volatility modes and the Hurst exponent of the index being the one of the common volatility modes. Furthermore, we propose a statistical procedure to estimate the Hurst factor exponent from the stock returns dynamics together with theoretical guarantees, with good results in the limit where the number of stocks N goes to infinity. Last but not least, we show that the factor can be seen as an index constructed from the single stocks weighted by specific coefficients.

Keywords: hurst exponent, log S-fbm model, nested factor model, small intermittency approximation

Procedia PDF Downloads 49

Authors: Keigh D. Guinto, Ma. Romina M. Santos

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One of the most catastrophic natural disasters in the Philippines is floods. Twelve (12) million people reside in Metro Manila, National Capital Region (NCR), prone to flooding. A flood can cause widespread devastation resulting in damaged properties and infrastructures and loss of life. By using the analytical hierarchy process, six (6) parameters were selected, namely elevation, slope, lithology, distance from the river, river network density, and flow accumulation. Ranking of these parameters demonstrates that distance from the river with 25.31% and river density with 17.30% ranked the highest causative factor to flooding. This is followed by flow accumulation with 16.72%, elevation with 15.33%, slope with 13.53%, and the least flood causative factor is lithology with 11.8%. The generated flood susceptibility map of Mandaluyong has three (3) classes: high susceptibility, moderate susceptibility, and low susceptibility. The flood susceptibility map generated in this study can be used as an aid for planning flood mitigation, land use planning, and general public awareness. This study can also be used for emergency management and can be applied in the disaster risk management of Mandaluyong.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, assessment, flood, geographic information system

Procedia PDF Downloads 200

Authors: Maria C. Proença, Maria T. Rebelo, Maria J. Alves, Sofia Cunha

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Vector-borne diseases are transmitted to humans by mosquitos, sandflies, bugs, ticks, and other vectors. Some are re-transmitted between vectors, if the infected human has a new contact when his levels of infection are high. The vector is infected for lifetime and can transmit infectious diseases not only between humans but also from animals to humans. Some vector borne diseases are very disabling and globally account for more than one million deaths worldwide. The mosquitoes from the complex Culex pipiens sl. are the most abundant in Portugal, and we dispose in this moment of a data set from the surveillance program that has been carried on since 2006 across the country. All mosquitos’ species are included, but the large coverage of Culex pipiens sl. and its importance for public health make this vector an interesting candidate to assess risk of disease amplification. This work focus on ports and airports identified as key areas of high density of vectors. Mosquitoes being ectothermic organisms, the main factor for vector survival and pathogen development is temperature. Minima and maxima local air temperatures for each area of interest are averaged by month from data gathered on a daily basis at the national network of meteorological stations, and interpolated in a geographic information system (GIS). The range of temperatures ideal for several pathogens are known and this work shows how to use it with the meteorological data in each port and airport facility, to focus an efficient implementation of countermeasures and reduce simultaneously risk transmission and mitigation costs. The results show an increased alert with decreasing latitude, which corresponds to higher minimum and maximum temperatures and a lower amplitude range of the daily temperature.

Keywords: human health, risk assessment, risk management, vector-borne diseases

Procedia PDF Downloads 419

Authors: Chia-Yi Wu, Jung-Chen Chang, Wen-Yu Hu, Ming-Been Lee

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In nearly all physical health conditions, suicide risk is increased compared to healthy people even after adjustment for age, gender, mental health, and substance use diagnoses. In order to highlight the importance of suicide risk assessment for the inpatients and early identification and engagement for inpatients’ mental health problems, a study was designed aiming at developing a comprehensive psychosomatic nursing engagement (PSNE) model with standardized operation procedures informing how nurses communicate, assess, and engage with the inpatients with emotional distress. The purpose of the study was to promote the gatekeeping role of clinical nurses in performing brief assessment and interventions to detect depression and anxiety symptoms among the inpatients, particularly in non-psychiatric wards. The study will be carried out in a 2000-bed university hospital in Northern Taiwan in 2019. We will select a ward for trial and develop feasible procedures and in-job training course for the nurses to offer mental health care, which will also be validated through professional consensus meeting. The significance of the study includes the following three points: (1) The study targets at an important but less-researched area of PSNE model in the cultural background of Taiwan, where hospital service is highly accessible, but mental health and suicide risk assessment are hardly provided by non-psychiatric healthcare personnel. (2) The issue of PSNE could be efficient and cost-effective in the identification of suicide risks at an early stage to prevent inpatient suicide or to reduce future suicide risk by early treatment of mental illnesses among the high-risk group of hospitalized patients who are more than three-times lethal to suicide. (3) Utilizing a brief tool with its established APP ('The Five-item Brief Symptom Rating Scale, BSRS-5'), we will invent the standardized procedure of PSNE and referral steps in collaboration with the medical teams across the study hospital. New technological tools nested within nursing assessment/intervention will concurrently be invented to facilitate better care quality. The major outcome measurements will include tools for early identification of common mental distress and suicide risks, i.e., the BSRS-5, revised BSRS-5, and the 9-item Concise Mental Health Checklist (CMHC-9). The main purpose of using the CMHC-9 in clinical suicide risk assessment is mainly to provide care and build-up therapeutic relationship with the client, so it will also be used to nursing training highlighting the skills of supportive care. Through early identification of the inpatients’ depressive symptoms or other mental health care needs such as insomnia, anxiety, or suicide risk, the majority of the nursing clinicians would be able to engage in critical interventions that alleviate the inpatients’ suffering from mental health problems, given a feasible nursing input.

Keywords: mental health care, clinical outcome improvement, clinical nurses, suicide prevention, psychosomatic nursing

Procedia PDF Downloads 108