Search results for: climate mitigation

Authors: Muhammed Ashiq Villanthenkodath, Shreya Pal

Abstract:

Purpose: This study scrutinizes the impact of economic globalization on ecological footprint while endogenizing economic growth and energy consumption from 1990 to 2018 in India. Design/methodology/approach: The standard unit root test has been employed for time series analysis to unveil the integration order. Then, the cointegration was confirmed using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) analysis. Further, the study executed the dynamic ARDL simulation model to estimate long-run and short-run results along with simulation and robotic prediction. Findings: The cointegration analysis confirms the existence of a long-run association among variables. Further, economic globalization reduces the ecological footprint in the long run. Similarly, energy consumption decreases the ecological footprint. In contrast, economic growth spurs the ecological footprint in India. Originality/value: This study contributes to the literature in many ways. First, unlike studies that employ CO2 emissions and globalization nexus, this study employs ecological footprint for measuring environmental quality; since it is the broader measure of environmental quality, it can offer a wide range of climate change mitigation policies for India. Second, the study executes a multivariate framework with updated series from 1990 to 2018 in India to explore the link between EF, economic globalization, energy consumption, and economic growth. Third, the dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model has been used to explore the short and long-run association between the series. Finally, to our limited knowledge, this is the first study that uses economic globalization in the EF function of India amid facing a trade-off between sustainable economic growth and the environment in the era of globalization.

Keywords: economic globalization, ecological footprint, India, dynamic ARDL simulation model

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: H. K. Ramaraju

Abstract:

World is in deep trouble and deeper denial. Worse, the denial is now entirely on the side of action. It is well accepted that climate change is a reality. Scientists say we need to cap temperature increases at 2°C to avoid catastrophe, which means capping emissions at 450 ppm .We know global average temperatures have already increased by 0.8°C and there is enough green house gas in the atmosphere to lead to another 0.8°C increase. There is still a window of opportunity, a tiny one, to tackle the crisis. But where is the action? In the 1990’s, when the world did even not understand, let alone accept, the crises, it was more willing to move to tackle climate change. Today we are in reverse in gear. The rich world has realized it is easy to talk big, but tough to take steps to actually reduce emissions. The agreement was that these countries would reduce so that the developing World could increase. Instead, between 1990 and 2006, their carbon dioxide emissions increased by a whopping 14.5 percent, even green countries of Europe are unable to match words with action. Stop deforestation and take a 20 percent advantage in our carbon balance sheet, with out doing anything at home called REDD (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) and push for carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. There are warning signs elsewhere and they need to be read correctly and acted up on , if not the cases like flood –act of nature or manmade disaster. The full length paper orient in proper understanding of the issues and identifying the most appropriate course of action.

Keywords: catastrophe, deforestation, emissions, waste water

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Nguyen Thi Thu Trang

Abstract:

Climate change and sea level rise is one of the greatest challenges facing human beings in the 21st century. Because of sea level rise, several low-lying coastal areas around the globe are at risk of being completely submerged, disappearing under water. Particularly in Viet Nam, the rise in sea level is predicted to result in more frequent and even permanently inundated coastal plains. As a result, land reserving fund of coastal cities is going to be narrowed in near future, while construction ground is becoming increasingly limited due to a rapid growth in population. Faced with this reality, the solutions are being discussed not only in tradition view such as accommodation is raised or moved to higher areas, or “living with the water”, but also forwards to “living on the water”. Therefore, the concept of a sustainable floating community with floating houses based on the precious value of long term historical tradition of water dwellings in Viet Nam would be a sustainable solution for adaptation of climate change and sea level rise in the coastal areas. The sustainable floating community is comprised of sustainability in four components: architecture, environment, socio-economic and living quality. This research paper is focused on sustainability in architectural component of floating community. Through detailed architectural analysis of current floating houses and floating communities in Viet Nam, this research not only accumulates precious values of traditional architecture that need to be preserved and developed in the proposed concept, but also illustrates its weaknesses that need to address for optimal design of the future sustainable floating communities. Based on these studies the research would provide guidelines with appropriate architectural solutions for the concept of sustainable floating community with floating housing units that are adapted to climate change and sea level rise in Viet Nam.

Keywords: guidelines, sustainable floating community, floating houses, Vietnam

Procedia PDF Downloads 518

Authors: Faheemah N. Mustafaa, Tamarie Macon, Tabbye Chavous

Abstract:

A major concern of university leaders worldwide is how to create environments where students from diverse racial/ethnic, national, and cultural backgrounds can thrive. Over the past decade or so in the United States, African American women have done exceedingly well in terms of college enrollment, academic performance, and completion. However, the relative academic successes of African American women in higher education has in some ways overshadowed social challenges many Black women continue to encounter on college campuses in the United States. Within predominantly White institutions (PWIs) in particular, there is consistent evidence that many Black students experience racially hostile climates. However, research studies on racial climates within PWIs have mostly focused on cross-sectional comparisons of minority and majority group experiences, and few studies have examined campus racial climate in relation to short- and longer-term well-being. One longitudinal study reported that African American women’s psychological well-being was positively related to their comfort in cross-racial interactions (a concept closely related to campus climate). Thus, our primary research question was: Do African American women’s perceptions of campus climate (tension and positive association) during their freshman year predict their reports of psychological distress and well-being (self-acceptance) during their sophomore year? Participants were part of a longitudinal survey examining African American college students’ academic identity development, particularly in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) fields. The final subsample included 134 self-identified African American/Black women enrolled in PWIs. Accounting for background characteristics (mother’s education, family income, interracial contact, and prior levels of outcomes), we employed hierarchical regression to examine relationships between campus racial climate during freshman year and psychological adjustment one year later. Both regression models significantly predicted African American women’s psychological outcomes (for distress, F(7,91)= 4.34, p < .001; and for self-acceptance, F(7,90)= 4.92, p < .001). Although none of the controls were significant predictors, perceptions of racial tension on campus were associated with both distress and self-acceptance. More perceptions of tension were related to African American women’s greater psychological distress the following year (B= 0.22, p= .01). Additionally, racial tension predicted later self-acceptance in the expected direction: Higher first-year reports of racial tension were related to less positive attitudes toward the self during the sophomore year (B= -0.16, p= .04). However, perceptions that it was normative for Black and White students to socialize on campus (or positive association scores) were unrelated to psychological distress or self-acceptance. Findings highlight the relevance of examining multiple facets of campus racial climate in relation to psychological adjustment, with possible emphasis on the import of racial tension on African American women’s psychological adjustment. Results suggest that negative dimensions of campus racial climate may have lingering effects on psychological well-being, over and above more positive aspects of climate. Thus, programs targeted toward improving student relations on campus should consider addressing cross-racial tensions.

Keywords: higher education, psychological adjustment, university climate, university students

Procedia PDF Downloads 385

Authors: Fitih Ademe, Kibebew Kibret, Sheleme Beyene, Mezgebu Getnet, Gashaw Meteke

Abstract:

Soil moisture and nutrient availability are the two key edaphic factors that affect crop yields and are directly or indirectly affected by climate variability and change. The study examined climate-induced yield level, yield variability and gap of maize during 1981-2010 main growing season in the Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia. Pearson correlation test was employed to see the relationship between climate variables and yield. The coefficient of variation (CV) was used to analyze annual yield variability. Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer cropping system model (DSSAT-CSM) was used to simulate the growth and yield of maize for the study period. The result indicated that maize grain yield was strongly (P<0.01) and positively correlated with seasonal rainfall (r=0.67 at Melkassa and r = 0.69 at Ziway) in the CRV while day temperature affected grain yield negatively (r= -0.44) at Ziway (P<0.05) during the simulation period. Variations in total seasonal rainfall at Melkassa and Ziway explained 44.9 and 48.5% of the variation in yield, respectively, under optimum nutrition. Following variation in rainfall, high yield variability (CV=23.5%, Melkassa and CV=25.3%, Ziway) was observed for optimum nutrient simulation than the corresponding nutrient limited simulation (CV=16%, Melkassa and 24.1%, Ziway) in the study period. The observed farmers’ yield was 72, 52 and 43% of the researcher-managed, water-limited and potential yield of the crop, respectively, indicating a wide maize yield gap in the region. The study revealed rainfed crop production in the CRV is prone to yield variabilities due to its high dependence on seasonal rainfall and nutrient level. Moreover, the high coefficient of variation in the yield gap for the 30-year period also foretells the need for dependable water supply at both locations. Given the wide yield gap especially during lower rainfall years across the simulation periods, it signifies the requirement for a more dependable application of irrigation water and a potential shift to irrigated agriculture; hence, adopting options that can improve water availability and nutrient use efficiency would be crucial for crop production in the area.

Keywords: climate variability, crop model, water availability, yield gap, yield variability

Procedia PDF Downloads 72

Authors: Megha Jain, K. K. Pathak

Abstract:

In sub-tropical humid climates, it is estimated most of the urban peak load of energy consumption is used to satisfy air-conditioning or air-coolers cooling demand in summer time. As the urbanization rate in developing nation – like the case in India is rising rapidly, the pressure placed on energy resources to satisfy inhabitants’ indoor comfort requirements is consequently increasing too. This paper introduces passive cooling through roof as a means of reducing energy cooling loads for satisfying human comfort requirements in a sub-tropical climate. Experiments were performed by applying different insulators which are locally available solar reflective materials to insulate the roofs of five rooms of 4 case buildings; three rooms having RCC (Reinforced Cement Concrete) roof and two having Asbestos sheet roof of existing buildings. The results are verified by computer simulation using Computational Fluid Dynamics tools with FLUENT software. The result of using solar reflective paint with high albedo coating shows a fall of 4.8⁰C in peak hours and saves 303 kWh considering energy load with air conditioner during the summer season in comparison to non insulated flat roof energy load of residential buildings in Bhopal. An optimum solution of insulator for both types of roofs is presented. It is recommended that the selected cool roof solution be combined with insulation on other elements of envelope, to increase the indoor thermal comfort. The application is intended for low cost residential buildings in composite and warm climate like Bhopal.

Keywords: cool roof, computational fluid dynamics, energy loads, insulators, passive cooling, subtropical climate, thermal performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 170

Authors: Santosh Kumar Ketham

Abstract:

Climate change creating most dramatic and destructive consequences, the result is global warming and sea-level rise, flooding coastal cities around the world forming vulnerable situations affecting in multiple ways: environment, economy, social and political. The aim and goal of the research is to develop cities on water. Taking the problem as an opportunity to bring science, engineering, policies and design together to make a resilient and sustainable floating community on water considering existing/new technologies of floating. The quest is to make sustainable habitat on water to live, work, learn and play.  To make sustainable energy generation and storage alongside maintaining balance of land and marine to conserve Ecosystem. The research would serve as a model for sustainable neighbourhoods designed in a modular way and thus can easily extend or re-arranged, to adapt for future socioeconomic realities.  This research paper studies primarily on climate change problems, effects, risks and opportunities. It does so, through analysing existing case studies, books and writings published on coastal cities and understanding its various aspects for making sustainable habitat.

Keywords: floating cities, flexible modular typologies, rising sea levels, sustainable architecture and urbanism

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Sina Abadzadesahraei, Stephen Déry, John Rex

Abstract:

Climate research has repeatedly identified strong associations between anthropogenic emissions of ‘greenhouses gases’ and observed increases of global mean surface air temperature over the past century. Studies have also demonstrated that the degree of warming varies regionally. Canada is not exempt from this situation, and evidence is mounting that climate change is beginning to cause diverse impacts in both environmental and socio-economic spheres of interest. For example, northeastern British Columbia (BC), whose climate is controlled by a combination of maritime, continental and arctic influences, is warming at a greater rate than the remainder of the province. There are indications that these changing conditions are already leading to shifting patterns in the region’s hydrological cycle, and thus its available water resources. Coincident with these changes, northeastern BC is undergoing rapid development for oil and gas extraction: This depends largely on subsurface hydraulic fracturing (‘fracking’), which uses enormous amounts of freshwater. While this industrial activity has made substantial contributions to regional and provincial economies, it is important to ensure that sufficient and sustainable water supplies are available for all those dependent on the resource, including ecological systems. In this turn demands a comprehensive understanding of how water in all its forms interacts with landscapes, the atmosphere, and of the potential impacts of changing climatic conditions on these processes. The aim of this study is therefore to characterize and quantify all components of the water budget in the small watershed of Coles Lake (141.8 km², 100 km north of Fort Nelson, BC), through a combination of field observations and numerical modelling. Baseline information will aid the assessment of the sustainability of current and future plans for freshwater extraction by the oil and gas industry, and will help to maintain the precarious balance between economic and environmental well-being. This project is a perfect example of interdisciplinary research, in that it not only examines the hydrology of the region but also investigates how natural gas operations and growth can affect water resources. Therefore, a fruitful collaboration between academia, government and industry has been established to fulfill the objectives of this research in a meaningful manner. This project aims to provide numerous benefits to BC communities. Further, the outcome and detailed information of this research can be a huge asset to researchers examining the effect of climate change on water resources worldwide.

Keywords: northeastern British Columbia, water resources, climate change, oil and gas extraction

Procedia PDF Downloads 264

Authors: Iliya Bitrus Abaje

Abstract:

This study examines the evidence of climate change scenario in Kaduna State from the analysis of temperature and rainfall data (1976-2015) from three meteorological stations along a geographic transect from the southern part to the northern part of the State. Different statistical methods were used in determining the changes in both the temperature and rainfall series. The result of the linear trend lines revealed a mean increase in average temperature of 0.73oC for the 40 years period of study in the State. The plotted standard deviation for the temperature anomalies generally revealed that years of temperatures above the mean standard deviation (hotter than the normal conditions) in the last two decades (1996-2005 and 2006-2015) were more than those below (colder than the normal condition). The Cramer’s test and student’s t-test generally revealed an increasing temperature trend in the recent decades. The increased in temperature is an evidence that the earth’s atmosphere is getting warmer in recent years. The linear trend line equation of the annual rainfall for the period of study showed a mean increase of 316.25 mm for the State. Findings also revealed that the plotted standard deviation for the rainfall anomalies, and the 10-year non-overlapping and 30-year overlapping sub-periods analysis in all the three stations generally showed an increasing trend from the beginning of the data to the recent years. This is an evidence that the study area is now experiencing wetter conditions in recent years and hence climate change. The study recommends diversification of the economic base of the populace with emphasis on moving away from activities that are sensitive to temperature and rainfall extremes Also, appropriate strategies to ameliorate the scourge of climate change at all levels/sectors should always take into account the recent changes in temperature and rainfall amount in the area.

Keywords: anomalies, linear trend, rainfall, temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 319

Authors: Hernández Marieta, Aguayo Mauricio, Pedreros María, Llompart Ovidio

Abstract:

The hydrological cycle is influenced by multiple factors, including climate change, land use changes, and anthropogenic activities, all of which threaten water availability and quality worldwide. In recent decades, numerous investigations have used landscape metrics and hydrological modeling to demonstrate the influence of landscape patterns on the hydrological cycle components' natural dynamics. Many of these investigations have determined the repercussions on the quality and availability of water, sedimentation, and erosion regime, mainly in Asian basins. In fact, there is progress in this branch of science, but there are still unanswered questions for our region. This study examines the hydrological response in Chilean basins under various land use change scenarios (LUCC) and the influence of climate change. The components of the water cycle were modeled using a physically distributed type hydrological and hydraulic simulation model based on and oriented to mountain basins TETIS model. Future climate data were derived from Chilean regional simulations using the WRF-MIROC5 model, forced with the RCP 8.5 scenario, at a 25 km resolution for the periods 2030-2060 and 2061-2091. LUCC scenarios were designed based on nature-based solutions, landscape pattern influences, current national and international water conservation legislation, and extreme scenarios of non-preservation and conservation of native forests. The scenarios that demonstrate greater water availability, even under climate change, are those promoting the restoration of native forests in over 30% of the basins, even alongside agricultural activities. Current legislation promoting the restoration of native forests only in riparian zones (30-60 m or 200 m in steeper areas) will not be resilient enough to address future water shortages. Evapotranspiration, direct runoff, and water availability at basin outlets showed the greatest variations due to LUCC. The relationship between hydrological modeling and landscape configuration is an effective tool for establishing future territorial planning that prioritizes water resource protection.

Keywords: TETIS, landscape pattern, hydrological process, water availability, Chilean basins

Procedia PDF Downloads 36

Authors: Shree Kumar Maharjan

Abstract:

Climate change has varied impacts on diverse livelihood sectors, which is more prominent at the community level. The stakeholders and local institutions have been supporting the communities either by building adaptive capacities and resilience or minimizing the impacts of different adaptation interventions. Some of these interventions are effective, whereas others need further dynamisms and exertions considering the complexity of the risks and vulnerabilities. Hence, consolidated efforts of concerned stakeholders are required to minimize and adapt the present and future impacts. This study digs out and analyses the perceptions of local stakeholders in climate change adaptation in Madi and Deukhuri valleys of Nepal through a questionnaire survey. The study has categorized the local stakeholders into 5 groups in the study sites – Farmers groups and cooperatives, Government, I/NGOs, Development banks and education and other organizations. The local stakeholders revealed flood, drought, cold wave and riverbank erosion as the major climatic risks and hazards found in the sites eventually impacting on the loss of agricultural production, loss of agricultural land and properties, loss of livestock, the emergence of diseases and pest. The stakeholders believed that most of the farmers dealing with these impacts based on their traditional knowledge and practices, followed by with the support of NGOs and with the help of neighbors and community. The major supports of the stakeholders to deal with these impacts were on training and awareness, risk analysis and minimization, livelihood improvement, financial support, coordination and networking and facilitation in policy formulation. The stakeholders emphasized primarily on capacity building, appropriate technologies, community-based planning and monitoring, prioritization to the poor and the marginalized and establishment of community fund respectively for building adaptive capacities.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, local stakeholders, Madi, Deukhuri, Nepal

Procedia PDF Downloads 179

Authors: Abdulah Hamads Alatiah

Abstract:

The green architecture represents the essence of the sustainability process and the fundamental rule in the desert areas' reconstruction seeking to maintain the environmental balance. This study is based on the analytical descriptive approach, to extract the objectives of green architecture in the desert areas, and reveal the most important principles that contribute to highlight its economic, social, and environmental importance, in addition to standing on the most important technical standards that can be relied upon to deal with its environmental problems. The green architecture aims: making use of the alternative energy, reducing the conventional energy consumption, addressing its negative effects, adapting to the climate, innovation in design, providing the individuals' welfare and rationalizing the use of the available resources to maintain its environmental sustainability.

Keywords: green architecture, the warm-dry climate, natural lighting, environmental quality, renewable energy, weather changes

Procedia PDF Downloads 324

Authors: Evelyn Bilias-Lolis, Emily Louise Winter

Abstract:

Schools have a responsibility to implement school-wide frameworks that actively prevent, detect, and support all aspects of child development and learning. Such efforts can range from individual or classroom-level supports to school-wide primary prevention practices for the school’s infrastructure or climate. This study assessed the perceptions of educators across a variety of disciplines in Connecticut (i.e., elementary and secondary education, special education, school psychology, and school social work) on the perceived impact of their beliefs, language, and behavior about food and body consciousness on student self-image and school climate. Participants (N=50) completed a short electronic questionnaire measuring perceptions of how their behavior can influence their students’ opinions about themselves, their emerging self-image, and the overall climate of the school community. Secondly, the beliefs that were directly assessed in the first portion of the survey were further measured through the use of applied social vignettes involving students directly or as bystanders. Preliminary findings are intriguing. When asked directly, 100% of the respondents reported that what they say to students directly could influence student opinions about themselves and 98% of participants further agreed that their behavior both to and in front of students could impact a student’s developing self-image. Likewise, 82% of the sample agreed that their personal language and behavior affect the overall climate of a school building. However, when the above beliefs were assessed via applied social vignettes depicting routine social exchanges, results were significantly more widespread (i.e., results were evenly dispersed among levels of agreement and disagreement across participants in all areas). These preliminary findings offer humble but critical implications for informing integrated school wellness frameworks that aim to create body-sensitive school communities. Research indicates that perceptions about body image, attitudes about eating, and the onset of disordered eating practices surface in school-aged years. Schools provide a natural setting for instilling foundations for child wellness as a natural extension of existing school climate reform efforts. These measures do not always need to be expansive or extreme. Rather, educators have a ripe opportunity to become champions for health and wellness through increased self-awareness and subtle shifts in language and behavior. Future psychological research needs to continue to explore this line of inquiry using larger and more varied samples of educators in order to identify needs in teacher training and development that can yield positive and preventative health outcomes for children.

Keywords: body-sensitive schools, integrated school health, school climate reform, teacher awareness

Procedia PDF Downloads 158

Authors: Casta Guillaume, Robert Jagers, Deborah Rivas-Drake

Abstract:

Civically engaged youth are critical to maintaining and/or improving the functioning of local, national and global communities and their institutions. The present study investigated how school climate and academic beliefs (academic self-efficacy and school belonging) may inform emergent civic behaviors (emergent citizenship) among self-identified middle school youth of color (African American, Multiracial or Mixed, Latino, Asian American or Pacific Islander, Native American, and other). Study aims: 1) Understand whether and how school climate is associated with civic engagement behaviors, directly and indirectly, by fostering a positive sense of connection to the school and/or engendering feelings of self-efficacy in the academic domain. Accordingly, we examined 2) The association of youths’ sense of school connection and academic self-efficacy with their personally responsible and participatory civic behaviors in school and community contexts—both concurrently and longitudinally. Data from two subsamples of a larger study of social/emotional development among middle school students were used for longitudinal and cross sectional analysis. The cross-sectional sample included 324 6th-8th grade students, of which 43% identified as African American, 20% identified as Multiracial or Mixed, 18% identified as Latino, 12% identified as Asian American or Pacific Islander, 6% identified as Other, and 1% identified as Native American. The age of the sample ranged from 11 – 15 (M = 12.33, SD = .97). For the longitudinal test of our mediation model, we drew on data from the 6th and 7th grade cohorts only (n =232); the ethnic and racial diversity of this longitudinal subsample was virtually identical to that of the cross-sectional sample. For both the cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, full information maximum likelihood was used to deal with missing data. Fit indices were inspected to determine if they met the recommended thresholds of RMSEA below .05 and CFI and TLI values of at least .90. To determine if particular mediation pathways were significant, the bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals for each indirect pathway were inspected. Fit indices for the latent variable mediation model using the cross-sectional data suggest that the hypothesized model fit the observed data well (CFI = .93; TLI =. 92; RMSEA = .05, 90% CI = [.04, .06]). In the model, students’ perceptions of school climate were significantly and positively associated with greater feelings of school connectedness, which were in turn significantly and positively associated with civic engagement. In addition, school climate was significantly and positively associated with greater academic self-efficacy, but academic self-efficacy was not significantly associated with civic engagement. Tests of mediation indicated there was one significant indirect pathway between school climate and civic engagement behavior. There was an indirect association between school climate and civic engagement via its association with sense of school connectedness, indirect association estimate = .17 [95% CI: .08, .32]. The aforementioned indirect association via school connectedness accounted for 50% (.17/.34) of the total effect. Partial support was found for the prediction that students’ perceptions of a positive school climate are linked to civic engagement in part through their role in students’ sense of connection to school.

Keywords: civic engagement, early adolescence, school climate, school belonging, developmental niche

Procedia PDF Downloads 370

Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

Abstract:

The Chaura Thrust, located in Himachal Pradesh, India, is a prominent geological feature that exhibits characteristics of an out-of-sequence thrust fault. This paper explores the geological setting of Himachal Pradesh, focusing on the Chaura Thrust's unique characteristics, its classification as an out-of-sequence thrust, and the implications of its presence in the region. The introduction provides background information on thrust faults and out-of-sequence thrusts, emphasizing their significance in understanding the tectonic history and deformation patterns of an area. It also outlines the objectives of the paper, which include examining the Chaura Thrust's geological features, discussing its classification as an out-of-sequence thrust, and assessing its implications for the region. The paper delves into the geological setting of Himachal Pradesh, describing the tectonic framework and providing insights into the formation of thrust faults in the region. Special attention is given to the Chaura Thrust, including its location, extent, and geometry, along with an overview of the associated rock formations and structural characteristics. The concept of out-of-sequence thrusts is introduced, defining their distinctive behavior and highlighting their importance in the understanding of geological processes. The Chaura Thrust is then analyzed in the context of an out-of-sequence thrust, examining the evidence and characteristics that support this classification. Factors contributing to the out-of-sequence behavior of the Chaura Thrust, such as stress interactions and fault interactions, are discussed. The geological implications and significance of the Chaura Thrust are explored, addressing its impact on the regional geology, tectonic evolution, and seismic hazard assessment. The paper also discusses the potential geological hazards associated with the Chaura Thrust and the need for effective mitigation strategies in the region. Future research directions and recommendations are provided, highlighting areas that warrant further investigation, such as detailed structural analyses, geodetic measurements, and geophysical surveys. The importance of continued research in understanding and managing geological hazards related to the Chaura Thrust is emphasized. In conclusion, the Chaura Thrust in Himachal Pradesh represents an out-of-sequence thrust fault that has significant implications for the region's geology and tectonic evolution. By studying the unique characteristics and behavior of the Chaura Thrust, researchers can gain valuable insights into the geological processes occurring in Himachal Pradesh and contribute to a better understanding and mitigation of seismic hazards in the area.

Keywords: chaura thrust, out-of-sequence thrust, himachal pradesh, geological setting, tectonic framework, rock formations, structural characteristics, stress interactions, fault interactions, geological implications, seismic hazard assessment, geological hazards, future research, mitigation strategies.

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: A. A. Azemati, H. Hosseini

Abstract:

By using an adequate paint in buildings, energy consumption can be decreased. In this research, a range of wall paints in different climatic conditions has been investigated to observe its effect on energy consumption. In the current study, the researchers have investigated the effect of different parameters including climatic condition, absorption coefficient, and thermal loads on paint coating. In order to study these effects, heating and cooling loads of a typical building with different color paints have been calculated. The effect of building paint in different climatic condition was studied and a comparison was drawn between paints and painting coats with inorganic micro particles in temperate climate to obtain optimized energy consumption.

Keywords: climate, energy consumption, inorganic, painting coats

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Muhammad Azhar, Arshad Hussain

Abstract:

Vehicular emissions have increased in recent years due to rapid growth in world traffic resulting in an increase in associated problems such as air pollution and climate change, therefore it’s necessary to control vehicle emissions. This study looks at the effect of road maintenance on vehicle emissions. The Highway Development and Management Tool (HDM-4) was used to find the effect of road maintenance on vehicle emissions. Key data collected were traffic volume and composition, vehicle characteristics, pavement characteristics and climate data of the study area. Two options were analysed using the HDM-4 software; the base case or do nothing while the second is overlay maintenance. The study also showed a strong correlation between average roughness and yearly emission levels in both the alternatives. Finally, the study showed that proper maintenance reduces the roughness and emissions.

Keywords: vehicle emissions, road roughness, IRI, maintenance, HDM-4, CO2

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Shih-Fang Lo, Tzu-Wei Guo, Chih-Hsuan Lee

Abstract:

Tropical fisheries are vulnerable to the physical and biogeochemical oceanic changes associated with climate change. Warmer temperatures and extreme weather have beendamaging the abundance and growth patterns of aquatic organisms. In recent year, the shrinking of fish stock and labor shortage have increased the threat to global aquacultural production. Thus, building a climate-resilient and sustainable mechanism becomes an urgent, important task for global citizens. To tackle the problem, Taiwanese fishermen applies the artificial intelligence (AI) technology. In brief, the AI system (1) measures real-time water quality and chemical parameters infish ponds; (2) monitors fish stock through segmentation, detection, and classification; and (3) implements fishermen’sprevious experiences, perceptions, and real-life practices. Applying this system can stabilize the aquacultural production and potentially increase the labor force. Furthermore, this AI technology can build up a more resilient and sustainable system for the fishermen so that they can mitigate the influence of extreme weather while maintaining or even increasing their aquacultural production. In the future, when the AI system collected and analyzed more and more data, it can be applied to different regions of the world or even adapt to the future technological or societal changes, continuously providing the most relevant and useful information for fishermen in the world.

Keywords: aquaculture, artificial intelligence (AI), real-time system, sustainable fishery

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Sikander Nawaz Khan

Abstract:

Natural disasters like flood, earthquake, cyclone, volcanic eruption and others are causing immense losses to the property and lives every year. Current status and actual loss information of natural hazards can be determined and also prediction for next probable disasters can be made using different remote sensing and mapping technologies. Global Positioning System (GPS) calculates the exact position of damage. It can also communicate with wireless sensor nodes embedded in potentially dangerous places. GPS provide precise and accurate locations and other related information like speed, track, direction and distance of target object to emergency responders. Remote Sensing facilitates to map damages without having physical contact with target area. Now with the addition of more remote sensing satellites and other advancements, early warning system is used very efficiently. Remote sensing is being used both at local and global scale. High Resolution Satellite Imagery (HRSI), airborne remote sensing and space-borne remote sensing is playing vital role in disaster management. Early on Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to collect, arrange, and map the spatial information but now it has capability to analyze spatial data. This analytical ability of GIS is the main cause of its adaption by different emergency services providers like police and ambulance service. Full potential of these so called 3S technologies cannot be used in alone. Integration of GPS and other remote sensing techniques with GIS has pointed new horizons in modeling of earth science activities. Many remote sensing cases including Asian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, Mount Mangart landslides and Pakistan-India earthquake in 2005 are described in this paper.

Keywords: disaster mitigation, GIS, GPS, remote sensing

Procedia PDF Downloads 481

Authors: Nato Asatiani

Abstract:

The research underscores the critical role of a positive school climate in combating bullying. The results can be generalized and assumed that bullying behavior occurs when there is a victim, and the environment allows the realization of aggression; school culture is a strong predictor of bullying behavior; the probability of becoming a victim (victimhood) is high among those teenagers who experience high levels of stress in the environment; when a teenager experiences a sense of threat, such physical, psychological, or social symptoms are developed that makes teenagers vulnerable to bullying; the school culture that is oriented to adherence to the rules of communication and mutual respect in the group reduces the likelihood of a teenager to become a victim; consequently, when a teenager has a sense of wellness even in combination with aggression, this sense reduces the likelihood of a teenager to become a victim.

Keywords: bullying, adolescence, aggression, school climate

Procedia PDF Downloads 30

Authors: Mohammad Borhani, Ahmad Jamshidzaei, Mehdi Koohsari

Abstract:

The study of climate has captivated human interest throughout history. In response to this fascination, individuals historically organized their daily activities in alignment with prevailing climatic conditions and seasonal variations. Understanding the elements and specific climatic parameters of each region, such as precipitation, which directly impacts human life, is essential because, in recent years, there has been a significant increase in heavy rainfall in various parts of the world attributed to the effects of climate change. Climate prediction models suggest a future scenario characterized by an increase in severe precipitation events and related floods on a global scale. This is a result of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions causing changes in the natural precipitation patterns. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported global warming in 2001. The average global temperature has shown an increasing trend since 1861. In the 20th century, this increase has been between (0/2 ± 0/6) °C. The present study focused on examining the trend of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation in Sistan and Baluchestan provinces. The study employed data obtained from 13 precipitation measurement stations managed by the Iran Water Resources Management Company, encompassing daily precipitation records spanning the period from 1997 to 2016. The results indicated that the total monthly precipitation at the studied stations in Sistan and Baluchestan province follows a sinusoidal trend. The highest intense precipitation was observed in January, February, and March, while the lowest occurred in September, October, and then November. The investigation of the trend of seasonal precipitation in this province showed that precipitation follows an upward trend in the autumn season, reaching its peak in winter, and then shows a decreasing trend in spring and summer. Also, the examination of average precipitation indicated that the highest yearly precipitation occurred in 1997 and then in 2004, while the lowest annual precipitation took place between 1999 and 2001. The analysis of the annual precipitation trend demonstrates a decrease in precipitation from 1997 to 2016 in Sistan and Baluchestan province.

Keywords: climate change, extreme precipitation, greenhouse gas, trend analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 67

Authors: Charuvan Kasemsap

Abstract:

This research was studied in Bangnampriao District, Chachernsao Province, Thailand. The primary data relating to flooding, drought, and saline intrusion problem on agriculture were collected by surveying, focus group, and in-depth interview with agricultural officers, technical officers of irrigation department, and local government leader of Bangnampriao District. The likelihood and consequence of risk were determined the risk index by risk assessment matrix. In addition, the risk index and the total coping capacity scores were investigated the vulnerability index by vulnerability matrix. It was found that the high-risk drought and saline intrusion was dramatically along Bang Pakong River owing to the end destination of Chao Phraya Irrigation system of Central Thailand. This leads yearly the damage of rice paddy, mango tree, orchard, and fish pond. Therefore, some agriculture avoids rice growing during January to May, and also pumps fresh water from a canal into individual storage pond. However, Bangnampriao District will be strongly affected by the impacts of climate change. Monthly precipitations are expected to decrease in number; dry seasons are expected to be more in number and longer in duration. Thus, the risk and vulnerability of agriculture are also increasing. Adaptation strategies need to be put in place in order to enhance the resilience of the agriculture.

Keywords: agriculture, bangnampriao, climate change, risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 430

Authors: Manon Ghislain, Timothée Bonnet, Olivier Gimenez, Olivier Dehorter, Pierre-Yves Henry

Abstract:

Climatic fluctuations affect the demography of animal populations, generating changes in population size, phenology, distribution and community assemblages. However, very few studies have identified the underlying demographic processes. For short-lived species, like common passerine birds, are these changes generated by changes in adult survival or in fecundity and recruitment? This study tests for an effect of annual climatic conditions (spring and winter) on annual, local adult survival at very large spatial (a country, 252 sites), temporal (25 years) and biological (25 species) scales. The Constant Effort Site ringing has allowed the collection of capture - mark - recapture data for 100 000 adult individuals since 1989, over metropolitan France, thus documenting annual, local survival rates of the most common passerine birds. We specifically developed a set of multi-year, multi-species, multi-site Bayesian models describing variations in local survival and recapture probabilities. This method allows for a statistically powerful hierarchical assessment (global versus species-specific) of the effects of climate variables on survival. A major part of between-year variations in survival rate was common to all species (74% of between-year variance), whereas only 26% of temporal variation was species-specific. Although changing spring climate is commonly invoked as a cause of population size fluctuations, spring climatic anomalies (mean precipitation or temperature for March-August) do not impact adult survival: only 1% of between-year variation of species survival is explained by spring climatic anomalies. However, for sedentary birds, winter climatic anomalies (North Atlantic Oscillation) had a significant, quadratic effect on adult survival, birds surviving less during intermediate years than during more extreme years. For migratory birds, we do not detect an effect of winter climatic anomalies (Sahel Rainfall). We will analyze the life history traits (migration, habitat, thermal range) that could explain a different sensitivity of species to winter climate anomalies. Overall, we conclude that changes in population sizes for passerine birds are unlikely to be the consequences of climate-driven mortality (or emigration) in spring but could be induced by other demographic parameters, like fecundity.

Keywords: Bayesian approach, capture-recapture, climate anomaly, constant effort sites scheme, passerine, seasons, survival

Procedia PDF Downloads 303

Authors: Etika Sukma Adiyanti, H. N. Nurul Huda Putu Ekapraja, Gugun Gunawan

Abstract:

Global warming causes climate change and sea level rise. This is a threat for coastal regions, especially for coastal settlements with activities that are influenced by this natural phenomenon. Consequences are damage of houses, humid house environment, sustainability of the houses, obstructed economic activities and domestic works, disruption of sanitation facilities, lack of electricity, failure of transport system, psychological issues and other. Icons Tambak Lorok as 'Fisherman Village' is not something familiar to residents of the city of Semarang. Especially for the housewife who every day have to buy the ingredients high in protein and omega fish auction which is adjacent to the main street market in the village of Tambak Lorok. However, there are major problems that are being experienced by this small neighborhood. In fact, this issue includes seven infrastructure that should spoil the fishermen in activity with marine life. With this research, we will investigate water urbanism and climate change resiliency in Semarang, specifically the traditional fisher community of Tambak Lorok. We intend to find out how the local people in the fisher settlement Tambak Lorok deal with water urbanism, proverty and living with floods. So, we have a good solution for this problem, Floating Stage. We think that Tambak Lorok needs a new design for the common future. With this, One Building at A Time for Tambak Lorok, will be a good solution.

Keywords: fisher community, environment, climate change, settlement

Procedia PDF Downloads 215

Authors: Syed Towseef Ahmad, Fatima Amin, Pritha Acharya, Anil K. Gupta, Pervez Ahmad

Abstract:

Glaciers being the sentinels of climate change, are the most visible evidence of global warming. Given the unavailability of observed field-based data, this study has focussed on the use of geospatial techniques to obtain information about the glaciers of Pir-Panjal (PPJ) and the Great Himalayan Regions of Jhelum Basin (GHR). These glaciers need to be monitored in line with the variations in climatic conditions because they significantly contribute to various sectors in the region. The main aim of this study is to map the glaciers in the two adjacent regions (PPJ and GHR) in the north-western Himalayas with different topographies and compare the changes in various glacial attributes during two different time periods (1990-2020). During the last three decades, both PPJ as well as GHR regions have observed deglaciation of around 36 and 26 percent, respectively. The mean elevation of GHR glaciers has increased from 4312 to 4390 masl, while the same for PPJ glaciers has increased from 4085 to 4124 masl during the observation period. Using accumulation area ratio (AAR) method, mean mass balance of -34.52 and -37.6 cm.w.e was recorded for the glaciers of GHR and PPJ, respectively. The difference in areal and mass loss of glaciers in these regions may be due to (i) the smaller size of PPJ glaciers which are all smaller than 1 km² and are thus more responsive to climate change (ii) Higher mean elevation of GHR glaciers (iii) local variations in climatic variables in these glaciated regions. Time series analysis of climate variables indicates that both the mean maximum and minimum temperatures of Qazigund station (Tmax= 19.2, Tmin= 6.4) are comparatively higher than the Pahalgam station (Tmax= 18.8, Tmin= 3.2). Except for precipitation in Qazigund (Slope= - 0.3 mm a⁻¹), each climatic parameter has shown an increasing trend during these three decades, and with the slope of 0.04 and 0.03°c a⁻¹, the positive trend in Tmin (pahalgam) and Tmax (qazigund) are observed to be statistically significant (p≤0.05).

Keywords: glaciers, climate change, Pir-Panjal, greater Himalayas, mass balance

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Vinko Lešić, Mario Vašak, Anita Martinčević, Marko Gulin, Antonio Starčić, Hrvoje Novak

Abstract:

With 40% of total world energy consumption, building systems are developing into technically complex large energy consumers suitable for application of sophisticated power management approaches to largely increase the energy efficiency and even make them active energy market participants. Centralized control system of building heating and cooling managed by economically-optimal model predictive control shows promising results with estimated 30% of energy efficiency increase. The research is focused on implementation of such a method on a case study performed on two floors of our faculty building with corresponding sensors wireless data acquisition, remote heating/cooling units and central climate controller. Building walls are mathematically modeled with corresponding material types, surface shapes and sizes. Models are then exploited to predict thermal characteristics and changes in different building zones. Exterior influences such as environmental conditions and weather forecast, people behavior and comfort demands are all taken into account for deriving price-optimal climate control. Finally, a DC microgrid with photovoltaics, wind turbine, supercapacitor, batteries and fuel cell stacks is added to make the building a unit capable of active participation in a price-varying energy market. Computational burden of applying model predictive control on such a complex system is relaxed through a hierarchical decomposition of the microgrid and climate control, where the former is designed as higher hierarchical level with pre-calculated price-optimal power flows control, and latter is designed as lower level control responsible to ensure thermal comfort and exploit the optimal supply conditions enabled by microgrid energy flows management. Such an approach is expected to enable the inclusion of more complex building subsystems into consideration in order to further increase the energy efficiency.

Keywords: price-optimal building climate control, Microgrid power flow optimisation, hierarchical model predictive control, energy efficient buildings, energy market participation

Procedia PDF Downloads 465

Authors: Abdulmalik Altuwayjiri, Milad Pirhadi, Sina Taghvaee, Constantinos Sioutas

Abstract:

A significant portion of PM₂.₅ mass concentration is carbonaceous matter (CM), which majorly exists in the form of organic carbon (OC). Ambient OC originates from a multitude of sources and plays an important role in global climate effects, visibility degradation, and human health. In this study, positive matrix factorization (PMF) was utilized to identify and quantify the long-term contribution of PM₂.₅ sources to total OC mass concentration in central Los Angeles (CELA) and Riverside (i.e., receptor site), using the chemical speciation network (CSN) database between 2005 and 2015, a period during which several state and local regulations on tailpipe emissions were implemented in the area. Our PMF resolved five different factors, including tailpipe emissions, non-tailpipe emissions, biomass burning, secondary organic aerosol (SOA), and local industrial activities for both sampling sites. The contribution of vehicular exhaust emissions to the OC mass concentrations significantly decreased from 3.5 µg/m³ in 2005 to 1.5 µg/m³ in 2015 (by about 58%) at CELA, and from 3.3 µg/m³ in 2005 to 1.2 µg/m³ in 2015 (by nearly 62%) at Riverside. Additionally, SOA contribution to the total OC mass, showing higher levels at the receptor site, increased from 23% in 2005 to 33% and 29% in 2010 and 2015, respectively, in Riverside, whereas the corresponding contribution at the CELA site was 16%, 21% and 19% during the same period. The biomass burning maintained an almost constant relative contribution over the whole period. Moreover, while the adopted regulations and policies were very effective at reducing the contribution of tailpipe emissions, they have led to an overall increase in the fractional contributions of non-tailpipe emissions to total OC in CELA (about 14%, 28%, and 28% in 2005, 2010 and 2015, respectively) and Riverside (22%, 27% and 26% in 2005, 2010 and 2015), underscoring the necessity to develop equally effective mitigation policies targeting non-tailpipe PM emissions.

Keywords: PM₂.₅, organic carbon, Los Angeles megacity, PMF, source apportionment, non-tailpipe emissions

Procedia PDF Downloads 198

Authors: Antonis Skouloudis, Georgios Deligiannakis, Panagiotis Vouros, Konstantinos Evangelinos, Loannis Nikolaou

Abstract:

On November 15th, 2017, a catastrophic flash flood devastated the city of Mandra in Central Greece, resulting in 24 fatalities and extensive damages to the built environment and infrastructure. It was Greece's deadliest and most destructive flood event for the past 40 years. In this paper, we examine the consequences of this event too small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) operating in Mandra during the flood event, which were affected by the floodwaters to varying extents. In this context, we conducted semi-structured interviews with business owners-managers of 45 SMEs located in flood inundated areas and are still active nowadays, based on an interview guide that spanned 27 topics. The topics pertained to the disaster experience of the business and business owners-managers, knowledge and attitudes towards climate change and extreme weather, aspects of disaster preparedness and related assistance needs. Our findings reveal that the vast majority of the affected businesses experienced heavy damages in equipment and infrastructure or total destruction, which resulted in business interruption from several weeks up to several months. Assistance from relatives or friends helped for the damage repairs and business recovery, while state compensations were deemed insufficient compared to the extent of the damages. Most interviewees pinpoint flooding as one of the most critical risks, and many connect it with the climate crisis. However, they are either not willing or unable to apply property-level prevention measures in their businesses due to cost considerations or complex and cumbersome bureaucratic processes. In all cases, the business owners are fully aware of the flood hazard implications, and since the recovery from the event, they have engaged in basic mitigation measures and contingency plans in case of future flood events. Such plans include insurance contracts whenever possible (as the vast majority of the affected SMEs were uninsured at the time of the 2017 event) as well as simple relocations of critical equipment within their property. The study offers fruitful insights on latent drivers and barriers of SMEs' resilience capacity to flash flooding. In this respect, findings such as ours, highlighting tensions that underpin behavioral responses and experiences, can feed into a) bottom-up approaches for devising actionable and practical guidelines, manuals and/or standards on business preparedness to flooding, and, ultimately, b) policy-making for an enabling environment towards a flood-resilient SME sector.

Keywords: flash flood, small and medium-sized enterprises, organizational resilience capacity, disaster preparedness, qualitative study

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: Gideon Nyuimbe Gasu

Abstract:

Sub Saharan Africa is at a critical point, experiencing rapid population growth, particularly in urban areas and young growing force. At the same time, the growing risk of catastrophic global climate change threatens to weaken food production system, increase intensity and frequency of drought, flood, and fires and undermine gains on development and poverty reduction. Although the region has the lowest per capital greenhouse gas emission level in the world, it will need to join global efforts to address climate change, including action to avoid significant increases and to encourage a green economy. Thus, there is a need for the concept of 'greening the economy' as was prescribed at Rio Summit of 1992. Renewable energy is one of the criterions to achieve this laudable goal of maintaining a green economy. There is need to address climate change while facilitating continued economic growth and social progress as energy today is critical to economic growth. Fossil fuels remain the major contributor of greenhouse gas emission. Thus, cleaner technologies such as carbon capture storage, renewable energy have emerged to be commercially competitive. This paper sets out to examine how to achieve a low carbon economy with minimal emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases which is one of the outcomes of implementing a green economy. Also, the paper examines the different renewable energy sources such as nuclear, wind, hydro, biofuel, and solar voltaic as a panacea to the looming climate change menace. Finally, the paper assesses the different renewable energy and energy efficiency as a propeller to generating new sources of income and jobs and in turn reduces carbon emission. The research shall engage qualitative, evaluative and comparative methods. The research will employ both primary and secondary sources of information. The primary sources of information shall be drawn from the sub Saharan African region and the global environmental organizations, energy legislation, policies and related industries and the judicial processes. The secondary sources will be made up of some books, journal articles, commentaries, discussions, observations, explanations, expositions, suggestions, prescriptions and other material sourced from the internet on renewable energy as a panacea to climate change. All information obtained from these sources will be subject to content analysis. The research result will show that the entire planet is warming as a result of the activities of mankind which is clear evidence that the current development is fundamentally unsustainable. Equally, the study will reveal that a low carbon development pathway in the sub Saharan African region should be embraced to minimize emission of greenhouse gases such as using renewable energy rather than coal, oil, and gas. The study concludes that until adequate strategies are devised towards the use of renewable energy the region will continue to add and worsen the current climate change menace and other adverse environmental conditions.

Keywords: carbon dioxide, climate change, legislation/law, renewable energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 227

Authors: Aliaksandr Volchak, Мaryna Barushka

Abstract:

The territory of Belarus is studied quite well in terms of hydrology but runoff fluctuations over time require more detailed research in order to forecast changes in rivers runoff in future. Generally, river runoff is shaped by natural climatic factors, but man-induced impact has become so big lately that it can be compared to natural processes in forming runoffs. In Belarus, a heavy man load on the environment was caused by large-scale land reclamation in the 1960s. Lands of southern Belarus were reclaimed most, which contributed to changes in runoff. Besides, global warming influences runoff. Today we observe increase in air temperature, decrease in precipitation, changes in wind velocity and direction. These result from cyclic climate fluctuations and, to some extent, the growth of concentration of greenhouse gases in the air. Climate change affects Belarus’s water resources in different ways: in hydropower industry, other water-consuming industries, water transportation, agriculture, risks of floods. In this research we have done an assessment of river runoff according to the scenarios of climate change and global climate forecast presented in the 4th and 5th Assessment Reports conducted by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and later specified and adjusted by experts from Vilnius Gediminas Technical University with the use of a regional climatic model. In order to forecast changes in climate and runoff, we analyzed their changes from 1962 up to now. This period is divided into two: from 1986 up to now in comparison with the changes observed from 1961 to 1985. Such a division is a common world-wide practice. The assessment has revealed that, on the average, changes in runoff are insignificant all over the country, even with its irrelevant increase by 0.5 – 4.0% in the catchments of the Western Dvina River and north-eastern part of the Dnieper River. However, changes in runoff have become more irregular both in terms of the catchment area and inter-annual distribution over seasons and river lengths. Rivers in southern Belarus (the Pripyat, the Western Bug, the Dnieper, the Neman) experience reduction of runoff all year round, except for winter, when their runoff increases. The Western Bug catchment is an exception because its runoff reduces all year round. Significant changes are observed in spring. Runoff of spring floods reduces but the flood comes much earlier. There are different trends in runoff changes in spring, summer, and autumn. Particularly in summer, we observe runoff reduction in the south and west of Belarus, with its growth in the north and north-east. Our forecast of runoff up to 2035 confirms the trend revealed in 1961 – 2015. According to it, in the future, there will be a strong difference between northern and southern Belarus, between small and big rivers. Although we predict irrelevant changes in runoff, it is quite possible that they will be uneven in terms of seasons or particular months. Especially, runoff can change in summer, but decrease in the rest seasons in the south of Belarus, whereas in the northern part the runoff is predicted to change insignificantly.

Keywords: assessment, climate fluctuation, forecast, river runoff

Procedia PDF Downloads 121