Search results for: calculating method of cracking probability

Authors: Ahmed Guerine, Ali El Hafidi, Bruno Martin, Philippe Leclaire

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In this paper, we propose a method for the dynamic response of multi-storey structures with uncertain-but-bounded parameters. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by a numerical example of three-storey structures. This equation is integrated numerically using Newmark’s method. The numerical results are obtained by the proposed method. The simulation accounting the interval analysis method results are compared with a probabilistic approach results. The interval analysis method provides a mean curve that is between an upper and lower bound obtained from the probabilistic approach.

Keywords: multi-storey structure, dynamic response, interval analysis method, random parameters

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Authors: Yanshuang Zhang, Byungho Jeong

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There exists some time lag between the consumption of inputs and the production of outputs. This time lag effect should be considered in calculating efficiency of decision making units (DMU). Recently, a couple of DEA models were developed for considering time lag effect in efficiency evaluation of research activities. However, these models can’t discriminate efficient DMUs because of the nature of basic DEA model in which efficiency scores are limited to ‘1’. This problem can be resolved a super-efficiency model. However, a super efficiency model sometimes causes infeasibility problem. This paper suggests an output oriented super-efficiency model for efficiency evaluation under the consideration of time lag effect. A case example using a long term research project is given to compare the suggested model with the MpO model

Keywords: DEA, Super-efficiency, Time Lag, research activities

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Authors: Somaya Adwan, Rasha Majed, Lamya'a Majed, Hamzah Arof

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In order to produce images with whole body parts, X-ray of different portions of the body parts is assembled using image stitching methods. A new method for image stitching that exploits mutually feature based method and direct based method to identify and merge pairs of X-ray medical images is presented in this paper. The performance of the proposed method based on this hybrid approach is investigated in this paper. The ability of the proposed method to stitch and merge the overlapping pairs of images is demonstrated. Our proposed method display comparable if not superior performance to other feature based methods that are mentioned in the literature on the standard databases. These results are promising and demonstrate the potential of the proposed method for further development to tackle more advanced stitching problems.

Keywords: image stitching, direct based method, panoramic image, X-ray

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Authors: Thomas Larm, Anna Wahlsten

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An international literature study has been carried out for comparison of commonly used methods for the dimensioning of transport systems and stormwater facilities for flow detention. The focus of the literature study regarding the calculation of design flow and detention has been the widely used Rational method and its underlying parameters. The impact of chosen design parameters such as return time, rain intensity, runoff coefficient, and climate factor have been studied. The parameters used in the calculations have been analyzed regarding how they can be calculated and within what limits they can be used. Data used within different countries have been specified, e.g., recommended rainfall return times, estimated runoff times, and climate factors used for different cases and time periods. The literature study concluded that the determination of runoff coefficients is the most uncertain parameter that also affects the calculated flow and required detention volume the most. Proposals have been developed for new runoff coefficients, including a new proposed method with equations for calculating runoff coefficients as a function of return time (years) and rain intensity (l/s/ha), respectively. Suggestions have been made that it is recommended not to limit the use of the Rational Method to a specific catchment size, contrary to what many design manuals recommend, with references to this. The proposed relationships between return time or rain intensity and runoff coefficients need further investigation and to include the quantification of uncertainties. Examples of parameters that have not been considered are the influence on the runoff coefficients of different dimensioning rain durations and the degree of water saturation of green areas, which will be investigated further. The influence of climate effects and design rain on the dimensioning of the stormwater facilities grassed ditches and biofilters (bio retention systems) has been studied, focusing on flow detention capacity. We have investigated how the calculated runoff coefficients regarding climate effect and the influence of changed (increased) return time affect the inflow to and dimensioning of the stormwater facilities. We have developed a smart design of ditches and biofilters that results in both high treatment and flow detention effects and compared these with the effect from dry and wet ponds. Studies of biofilters have generally before focused on treatment of pollutants, but their effect on flow volume and how its flow detention capability can improve is only rarely studied. For both the new type of stormwater ditches and biofilters, it is required to be able to simulate their performance in a model under larger design rains and future climate, as these conditions cannot be tested in the field. The stormwater model StormTac Web has been used on case studies. The results showed that the new smart design of ditches and biofilters had similar flow detention capacity as dry and wet ponds for the same facility area.

Keywords: runoff coefficients, flow detention, smart design, biofilter, ditch

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Authors: Constantin Z. Leshan

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Hole Vacuum theory is based on discontinuous spacetime that contains vacuum holes. Vacuum holes can explain gravitation, some laws of quantum mechanics and allow teleportation of matter. All massive bodies emit a flux of holes which curve the spacetime; if we increase the concentration of holes, it leads to length contraction and time dilation because the holes do not have the properties of extension and duration. In the limited case when space consists of holes only, the distance between every two points is equal to zero and time stops - outside of the Universe, the extension and duration properties do not exist. For this reason, the vacuum hole is the only particle in physics capable of describing gravitation using its own properties only. All microscopic particles must 'jump' continually and 'vibrate' due to the appearance of holes (impassable microscopic 'walls' in space), and it is the cause of the quantum behavior. Vacuum holes can explain the entanglement, non-locality, wave properties of matter, tunneling, uncertainty principle and so on. Particles do not have trajectories because spacetime is discontinuous and has impassable microscopic 'walls' due to the simple mechanical motion is impossible at small scale distances; it is impossible to 'trace' a straight line in the discontinuous spacetime because it contains the impassable holes. Spacetime 'boils' continually due to the appearance of the vacuum holes. For teleportation to be possible, we must send a body outside of the Universe by enveloping it with a closed surface consisting of vacuum holes. Since a material body cannot exist outside of the Universe, it reappears instantaneously in a random point of the Universe. Since a body disappears in one volume and reappears in another random volume without traversing the physical space between them, such a transportation method can be called teleportation (or Hole Teleportation). It is shown that Hole Teleportation does not violate causality and special relativity due to its random nature and other properties. Although Hole Teleportation has a random nature, it can be used for colonization of extrasolar planets by the help of the method called 'random jumps': after a large number of random teleportation jumps, there is a probability that the spaceship may appear near a habitable planet. We can create vacuum holes experimentally using the method proposed by Descartes: we must remove a body from the vessel without permitting another body to occupy this volume.

Keywords: border of the Universe, causality violation, perfect isolation, quantum jumps

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Authors: Bolatbek Rysbaiuly, Nazerke Rysbayeva, Aigerim Rysbayeva

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Relevance: Energy saving elevated to public policy in almost all developed countries. One of the areas for energy efficiency is improving and tightening design standards. In the tie with the state standards, make high demands for thermal protection of buildings. Constructive arrangement of layers should ensure normal operation in which the humidity of materials of construction should not exceed a certain level. Elevated levels of moisture in the walls can be attributed to a defective condition, as moisture significantly reduces the physical, mechanical and thermal properties of materials. Absence at the design stage of modeling the processes occurring in the construction and predict the behavior of structures during their work in the real world leads to an increase in heat loss and premature aging structures. Method: To solve this problem, widely used method of mathematical modeling of heat and mass transfer in materials. The mathematical modeling of heat and mass transfer are taken into the equation interconnected layer [1]. In winter, the thermal and hydraulic conductivity characteristics of the materials are nonlinear and depends on the temperature and moisture in the material. In this case, the experimental method of determining the coefficient of the freezing or thawing of the material becomes much more difficult. Therefore, in this paper we propose an approximate method for calculating the thermal conductivity and moisture permeability characteristics of freezing or thawing material. Questions. Following the development of methods for solving the inverse problem of mathematical modeling allows us to answer questions that are closely related to the rational design of fences: Where the zone of condensation in the body of the multi-layer fencing; How and where to apply insulation rationally his place; Any constructive activities necessary to provide for the removal of moisture from the structure; What should be the temperature and humidity conditions for the normal operation of the premises enclosing structure; What is the longevity of the structure in terms of its components frost materials. Tasks: The proposed mathematical model to solve the following problems: To assess the condition of the thermo-physical designed structures at different operating conditions and select appropriate material layers; Calculate the temperature field in a structurally complex multilayer structures; When measuring temperature and moisture in the characteristic points to determine the thermal characteristics of the materials constituting the surveyed construction; Laboratory testing to significantly reduce test time, and eliminates the climatic chamber and expensive instrumentation experiments and research; Allows you to simulate real-life situations that arise in multilayer enclosing structures associated with freezing, thawing, drying and cooling of any layer of the building material.

Keywords: energy saving, inverse problem, heat transfer, multilayer walling

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Authors: M. O. Olayiwola

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Numerical solutions of the generalized Burger-Fisher are obtained using a Modified Variational Iteration Method (MVIM) with minimal computational efforts. The computed results with this technique have been compared with other results. The present method is seen to be a very reliable alternative method to some existing techniques for such nonlinear problems.

Keywords: burger-fisher, modified variational iteration method, lagrange multiplier, Taylor’s series, partial differential equation

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Authors: Ana Breda, Catarina Cruz

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Daily, we face unpredictable events, often attributed to chance, as there is no justification for such an occurrence. Chance, understood as a source of uncertainty, is present in several aspects of human life, such as weather forecasts, dice rolling, and lottery. Surprisingly, humans and some animals can quickly adjust their behavior to handle efficiently doubly stochastic processes (random events with two layers of randomness, like unpredictable weather affecting dice rolling). This adjustment ability suggests that the human brain has built-in mechanisms for perceiving, understanding, and responding to simple probabilities. It also explains why current trends in mathematics education include probability concepts in official curriculum programs, starting from the third year of primary education onwards. In the first years of schooling, children learn to use a certain type of (specific) vocabulary, such as never, always, rarely, perhaps, likely, and unlikely, to help them to perceive and understand the probability of some events. These are keywords of crucial importance for their perception and understanding of probabilities. The development of the probabilistic concepts comes from facts and cause-effect sequences resulting from the subject's actions, as well as the notion of chance and intuitive estimates based on everyday experiences. As part of a junior summer school program, which took place at a Portuguese university, a non-formal learning experiment was carried out with 18 children in the 5th and 6th grades. This experience was designed to be implemented in a dynamic of a serious ice-breaking game, to assess their levels of probabilistic, critical, and creative thinking in understanding impossible, certain, equally probable, likely, and unlikely events, and also to gain insight into how the non-formal learning context influenced their achievements. The criteria used to evaluate probabilistic thinking included the creative ability to conceive events classified in the specified categories, the ability to properly justify the categorization, the ability to critically assess the events classified by other children, and the ability to make predictions based on a given probability. The data analysis employs a qualitative, descriptive, and interpretative-methods approach based on students' written productions, audio recordings, and researchers' field notes. This methodology allowed us to conclude that such an approach is an appropriate and helpful formative assessment tool. The promising results of this initial exploratory study require a future research study with children from these levels of education, from different regions, attending public or private schools, to validate and expand our findings.

Keywords: critical and creative thinking, non-formal mathematics learning, probabilistic thinking, serious game

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Authors: Suparman

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This paper addresses the problem of the signal segmentation within a Bayesian framework by using reversible jump MCMC algorithm. The signal is modelled by piecewise constant Moving-Average (MA) model where the numbers of segments, the position of change-point, the order and the coefficient of the MA model for each segment are unknown. The reversible jump MCMC algorithm is then used to generate samples distributed according to the joint posterior distribution of the unknown parameters. These samples allow calculating some interesting features of the posterior distribution. The performance of the methodology is illustrated via several simulation results.

Keywords: piecewise, moving-average model, reversible jump MCMC, signal segmentation

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Authors: Amylyn F. Labasano

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A significant number of empirical studies are carried out to investigate factors affecting college students’ performance in the academic examination. With a wide-array of literature-and studies-supported findings, this study is limited only on the students’ probability of passing periodical exams which is associated with students’ gender, absences in the class, use of reference book, and hours of study. Binary logistic regression was the technique used in the analysis. The research is based on the students’ record and data collected through survey. The result reveals that gender, use of reference book and hours of study are significant predictors of passing an examination while students’ absenteeism is an insignificant predictor. Females have 45% likelihood of passing the exam than their male classmates. Students who use and read their reference book are 38 times more likely pass the exam than those who do not use and read their reference book. Those who spent more than 3 hours in studying are four (4) times more likely pass the exam than those who spent only 3 hours or less in studying.

Keywords: absences, binary logistic regression, gender, hours of study prediction-causation method, periodical exams, random sampling, reference book

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Authors: Mrinalini Amritkar, Disha Patil, Swapna Kulkarni, Sukratu Barve, Suresh Gosavi

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Micro-mixers play an important role in the lab-on-a-chip applications and micro total analysis systems to acquire the correct level of mixing for any given process. The mixing process can be classified as active or passive according to the use of external energy. Literature of microfluidics reports that most of the work is done on the models of steady laminar flow; however, the study of unsteady laminar flow is an active area of research at present. There are wide applications of this, out of which, we consider nanoparticle synthesis in micro-mixers. In this work, we have developed a model for unsteady flow to study the mixing performance of a passive micro mixer for reactants used for such synthesis. The model is developed in Finite Volume Method (FVM)-based software, OpenFOAM. The model is tested by carrying out the simulations at Re of 0.5. Mixing performance of the micro-mixer is investigated using simulated concentration values of mixed species across the width of the micro-mixer and calculating the variance across a line profile. Experimental validation is done by passing dyes through a Y shape micro-mixer fabricated using polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) polymer and comparing variances with the simulated ones. Gold nanoparticles are later synthesized through the micro-mixer and collected at two different times leading to significantly different size distributions. These times match with the time scales over which reactant concentrations vary as obtained from simulations. Our simulations could thus be used to create design aids for passive micro-mixers used in nanoparticle synthesis.

Keywords: Lab-on-chip, LOC, micro-mixer, OpenFOAM, PDMS

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Authors: Asad Naeem, Mohamed Nour Eldin, Jinkoo Kim

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In this study, the seismic performance and life cycle cost (LCC) are evaluated of the structure retrofitted with the damped cable system (DCS). The DCS is a seismic retrofit system composed of a high-strength steel cable and pressurized viscous dampers. The analysis model of the system is first derived using various link elements in SAP2000, and fragility curves of the structure retrofitted with the DCS and viscous dampers are obtained using incremental dynamic analyses. The analysis results show that the residual displacements of the structure equipped with the DCS are smaller than those of the structure with retrofitted with only conventional viscous dampers, due to the enhanced stiffness/strength and self-centering capability of the damped cable system. The fragility analysis shows that the structure retrofitted with the DCS has the least probability of reaching the specific limit states compared to the bare structure and the structure with viscous damper. It is also observed that the initial cost of the DCS method required for the seismic retrofit is smaller than that of the structure with viscous dampers and that the LCC of the structure equipped with the DCS is smaller than that of the structure with viscous dampers.

Keywords: damped cable system, fragility curve, life cycle cost, seismic retrofit, self-centering

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Authors: Mohammad Ahmad, Dayalan Kasilingam

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In this paper, a spectral domain implementation of the fast multipole method is presented. It is shown that the aggregation, translation, and disaggregation stages of the fast multipole method (FMM) can be performed using the spectral domain (SD) analysis. The spectral domain fast multipole method (SD-FMM) has the advantage of eliminating the near field/far field classification used in conventional FMM formulation. The study focuses on the application of SD-FMM to one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) electric field integral equation (EFIE). The case of perfectly conducting strip, circular and square cylinders are numerically analyzed and compared with the results from the standard method of moments (MoM).

Keywords: electric field integral equation, fast multipole method, method of moments, wave scattering, spectral domain

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Authors: Alkaben Patel

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The proposed RP-HPLC method is easy, rapid, economical, precise and accurate stability indicating RP-HPLC method for simultaneous estimation of Astorvastatin and Methylcobalamine in their combined dosage form has been developed.The separation was achieved by LC-20 AT C18(250mm*4.6mm*2.6mm)Colum and water (pH 3.5): methanol 70:30 as mobile phase, at a flow rate of 1ml/min. wavelength of this dosage form is 215nm.The drug is related to stress condition of hydrolysis, oxidation, photolysis and thermal degradation.

Keywords: RP- HPLC, atorvastatin, methylcobalamine, method, development, validation

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Authors: T. J. Jemi Jeya, V. Sriram, V. Sundar

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Caisson breakwaters are gravity structures resting on the seabed and piercing the free surface sunk in coastal waters to break the energy in the waves and protect the water area behind them by creating tranquil conditions on its lee side for the purpose of berthing of vessels. A number of formula and methodologies have been proposed for calculating the forces on caissons due to waves, most of which being evolved through intensive laboratory and field measurements. The reflection of waves from such breakwaters often generates clapotis, leading to an amplification of waves in its vicinity. This result in increased pressures and forces, forcing researchers to modify its seaside shape as well as placing dissipaters in the form of screens. Apart from the above aspects, this paper also discusses the other important phenomena, like overtopping that dictates the stability of caisson breakwaters.

Keywords: caisson breakwater, Jarlan type breakwater, screens, circular breakwater

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Authors: Muhammad Imran Ahmad, Ruzelita Ngadiran, Mohd Nazrin Md Isa, Nor Ashidi Mat Isa, Mohd ZaizuIlyas, Raja Abdullah Raja Ahmad, Said Amirul Anwar Ab Hamid, Muzammil Jusoh

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This paper presents two technique, local feature extraction using image spectrum and low frequency spectrum modelling using GMM to capture the underlying statistical information to improve the performance of face recognition system. Local spectrum features are extracted using overlap sub block window that are mapping on the face image. For each of this block, spatial domain is transformed to frequency domain using DFT. A low frequency coefficient is preserved by discarding high frequency coefficients by applying rectangular mask on the spectrum of the facial image. Low frequency information is non Gaussian in the feature space and by using combination of several Gaussian function that has different statistical properties, the best feature representation can be model using probability density function. The recognition process is performed using maximum likelihood value computed using pre-calculate GMM components. The method is tested using FERET data sets and is able to achieved 92% recognition rates.

Keywords: local features modelling, face recognition system, Gaussian mixture models, Feret

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Authors: Catalina Albornoz, Giacomo Barbieri

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Crop monitoring has shown to reduce vulnerability to spreading plagues and pathologies in crops. Remote sensing with Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) has made crop monitoring more precise, cost-efficient and accessible. Nowadays, remote monitoring involves calculating maps of vegetation indices by using different software that takes either Truecolor (RGB) or multispectral images as an input. These maps are then used to segment the crop into management zones. Finally, knowing the spectral signature of a crop (the reflected radiation as a function of wavelength) can be used as an input for decision-making and crop characterization. The calculation of vegetation indices using software such as Pix4D has high precision for monoculture plantations. However, this paper shows that using this software on mixed crops may lead to errors resulting in an incorrect segmentation of the field. Within this work, authors propose to filter all the elements different from the main crop before the calculation of vegetation indices and the spectral signature. A filter based on the Sobel method for border detection is used for filtering a coffee crop. Results show that segmentation into management zones changes with respect to the traditional situation in which a filter is not applied. In particular, it is shown how the values of the spectral signature change in up to 17% per spectral band. Future work will quantify the benefits of filtering through the comparison between in situ measurements and the calculated vegetation indices obtained through remote sensing.

Keywords: coffee, filtering, mixed crop, precision agriculture, remote sensing, spectral signature

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Authors: Javad Sadoghi Yazdi, Robb Eric S. Moss

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This paper utilizes a probabilistic liquefaction triggering method for modeling post-liquefaction ground deformation. This cone penetration test CPT-based liquefaction triggering is employed to estimate the factor of safety against liquefaction (FSL) and compute the maximum cyclic shear strain (γmax). The study identifies a maximum PL value of 90% across various relative densities, which challenges the decrease from 90% to 70% as relative density decreases. It reveals that PL ranges from 5% to 50% for volumetric strain (εvol) less than 1%, while for εvol values between 1% and 3.2%, PL spans from 50% to 90%. The application of the CPT-based simplified liquefaction triggering procedures has been employed in previous researches to estimate liquefaction ground-failure indices, such as the Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI) and Liquefaction Severity Number (LSN). However, several studies have been conducted to highlight the variability in liquefaction probability calculations, suggesting a more accurate depiction of liquefaction likelihood. Consequently, the utilization of these simplified methods may not offer practical efficiency. This paper further investigates the efficacy of various established liquefaction vulnerability parameters, including LPI and LSN, in explaining the observed liquefaction-induced damage within residential zones of Christchurch, New Zealand using results from CPT database.

Keywords: cone penetration test (CPT), liquefaction, postliquefaction, ground failure

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Authors: Areej Salaymeh, Loren Schwiebert, Stephen Remias, Jonathan Waddell

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Extracting information from new data sources has emerged as a crucial task in many traffic planning processes, such as identifying traffic patterns, route planning, traffic forecasting, and locating infrastructure improvements. Given the advanced technologies used to collect Global Positioning System (GPS) data from dedicated GPS devices, GPS equipped phones, and navigation tools, intelligent data analysis methodologies are necessary to mine this raw data. In this research, an automatic detection framework is proposed to help identify and classify the locations of stopped GPS waypoints into two main categories: signalized intersections or highway congestion. The Delaunay triangulation is used to perform this assessment in the clustering phase. While most of the existing clustering algorithms need assumptions about the data distribution, the effectiveness of the Delaunay triangulation relies on triangulating geographical data points without such assumptions. Our proposed method starts by cleaning noise from the data and normalizing it. Next, the framework will identify stoppage points by calculating the traveled distance. The last step is to use clustering to form groups of waypoints for signalized traffic and highway congestion. Next, a binary classifier was applied to find distinguish highway congestion from signalized stop points. The binary classifier uses the length of the cluster to find congestion. The proposed framework shows high accuracy for identifying the stop positions and congestion points in around 99.2% of trials. We show that it is possible, using limited GPS data, to distinguish with high accuracy.

Keywords: Delaunay triangulation, clustering, intelligent transportation systems, GPS data

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Authors: Nooraneda Mutalip Laidey

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Computer Crimes Act 1997 (CCA 1997) was conceded by Malaysia’s legislative body in 1997 and the Act was enforced in June 2000. The purpose of CCA 1997 is to provide for offences related to misuse of computers such as hacking, cracking and phishing. CCA 1997 was modelled after United Kingdom’s Computer Misuses Act 1990 as a response to the emerging computer crimes. This legislation is divided into three parts and 12 Sections. The first part outlines preliminary matters that include short title and relevant definitions, second part provides for the offenses related to misuse of computers and specifies penalties for each offences, and the last part deals with ancillary provisions such as jurisdictional and investigational issues of cybercrime. The main objective of this paper is to discuss the development of computer crimes and its deterrence in Malaysia. Specific sections of CCA 1997 will be analysed in details and detail assessment on the prevention and prosecution of computer crimes in Malaysia will be accessed to determine whether CCA 1997 is so far adequate in preventing computer crimes in Malaysia.

Keywords: computer, computer crimes, CCA 1997, circumvention, deterrence

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Authors: T. Zhang, X. Liang, M. Lorin, C. Cheeseman, L. J. Vandeperre

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Cracks were observed when the magnesium silicate hydrate gel cement (prepared by 40% MgO/ 60% silica fume) was dried. This drying cracking is believed to be caused when unbound water evaporates from the binder. The shrinkage upon forced drying to 200 °C of mortars made up from a reactive magnesium oxide, silica fume and sand was measured using dilatometry. The magnitude of the drying shrinkage was found to decrease when more sand or less water was added to the mortars and can be as low as 0.16% for a mortar containing 60 wt% sand and a water to cement ratio of 0.5, which is of a similar order of magnitude as observed in Portland cement based mortars and concretes. A simple geometrical interpretation based on packing of the particles in the mortar can explain the observed drying shrinkages and based on this analysis the drying shrinkage of the hydration products at zero added solid is estimated to be 7.3% after 7 days of curing.

Keywords: magnesium silicate hydrate, shrinkage, dilatometry, gel cements

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Authors: Liang Weichien

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Without adequate information and mitigation plan for natural disaster, the risk to urban populated areas will increase in the future as populations grow, especially in Taiwan. Taiwan is recognized as the world's high-risk areas, where an average of 5.7 times of floods occur per year should seek to strengthen coherence and consensus in how cities can plan for flood and climate change. Therefore, this study aims at understanding the vulnerability to flooding in Taipei city, Taiwan, by creating indicators and calculating the vulnerability of each study units. The indicators were grouped into sensitivity and adaptive capacity based on the definition of vulnerability of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The indicators were weighted by using Principal Component Analysis. However, current researches were based on the assumption that the composition and influence of the indicators were the same in different areas. This disregarded spatial correlation that might result in inaccurate explanation on local vulnerability. The study used Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis by adding geographic weighting matrix as weighting to get the different main flood impact characteristic in different areas. Cross Validation Method and Akaike Information Criterion were used to decide bandwidth and Gaussian Pattern as the bandwidth weight scheme. The ultimate outcome can be used for the reduction of damage potential by integrating the outputs into local mitigation plan and urban planning.

Keywords: flood vulnerability, geographically weighted principal components analysis, GWPCA, highly urbanized area, spatial correlation

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Authors: Sumachaya Harnsukworapanich, Tetsuo Ichimori

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The apportionment method is used by many countries, to calculate the distribution of seats in political bodies. For example, this method is used in the United States (U.S.) to distribute house seats proportionally based on the population of the electoral district. Famous apportionment methods include the divisor methods called the Adams Method, Dean Method, Hill Method, Jefferson Method and Webster Method. Sometimes the results from the implementation of these divisor methods are unfair and include errors. Therefore, it is important to examine the optimization of this method by using a bias measurement to figure out precise and fair results. In this research we investigate the bias of divisor methods in the U.S. Houses of Representatives toward large and small states by applying the Stolarsky Mean Method. We compare the bias of the apportionment method by using two famous bias measurements: The Balinski and Young measurement and the Ernst measurement. Both measurements have a formula for large and small states. The Third measurement however, which was created by the researchers, did not factor in the element of large and small states into the formula. All three measurements are compared and the results show that our measurement produces similar results to the other two famous measurements.

Keywords: apportionment, bias, divisor, fair, measurement

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Authors: Kamran Yazdanbakhsh, Somayeh Mahmoudi

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Three reasons make good use of the decision theory in medicine: 1. Increased medical knowledge and their complexity makes it difficult treatment information effectively without resorting to sophisticated analytical methods, especially when it comes to detecting errors and identify opportunities for treatment from databases of large size. 2. There is a wide geographic variability of medical practice. In a context where medical costs are, at least in part, by the patient, these changes raise doubts about the relevance of the choices made by physicians. These differences are generally attributed to differences in estimates of probabilities of success of treatment involved, and differing assessments of the results on success or failure. Without explicit criteria for decision, it is difficult to identify precisely the sources of these variations in treatment. 3. Beyond the principle of informed consent, patients need to be involved in decision-making. For this, the decision process should be explained and broken down. A decision problem is to select the best option among a set of choices. The problem is what is meant by "best option ", or know what criteria guide the choice. The purpose of decision theory is to answer this question. The systematic use of decision models allows us to better understand the differences in medical practices, and facilitates the search for consensus. About this, there are three types of situations: situations certain, risky situations, and uncertain situations: 1. In certain situations, the consequence of each decision are certain. 2. In risky situations, every decision can have several consequences, the probability of each of these consequences is known. 3. In uncertain situations, each decision can have several consequences, the probability is not known. Our aim in this article is to show how decision theory can usefully be mobilized to meet the needs of physicians. The decision theory can make decisions more transparent: first, by clarifying the data systematically considered the problem and secondly by asking a few basic principles should guide the choice. Once the problem and clarified the decision theory provides operational tools to represent the available information and determine patient preferences, and thus assist the patient and doctor in their choices.

Keywords: decision making, medicine, treatment strategies, patient

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Authors: G. Nitesh

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The shear strength of soils is a crucial parameter instability analysis. Therefore, it is important to determine reliable values for the accuracy of stability analysis. Direct shear tests are mostly performed to determine the shear strength of cohesionless soils. The major limitation of the direct shear test is that the failure takes place through the pre-defined failure plane but the failure is not along pre-defined plane and is along the weakest plane in actual shearing mechanism that goes on in the field. This leads to overestimating the strength parameter; hence, a new apparatus called simple shear is developed and used in this study to determine the shear strength parameter that simulates the field conditions.

Keywords: direct shear, simple shear, angle of shear resistance, cohesionless soils

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Authors: Benhenni Abdellaziz

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Irrigation is a limiting factor for agricultural production and socioeconomic development of many countries in the arid and semi-arid world. However, the sustainability of irrigation systems requires rational management of the water resource, which is becoming increasingly rare in these regions. The objective of this work is to apply a geographic information system (GIS) coupled with a model for calculating crop water requirements (CROPWATER) for the management of irrigation water in irrigated areas and offer managers an effective tool to better manage water resources in these areas. The application area of GIS is the irrigated perimeter of Western Middle Cheliff, which is located in a semi-arid region (Middle Cheliff). The scope in question is considerable agrarian dynamics and an increased need for irrigation of most crops.

Keywords: GIS, CROPWAT, irrigation, water management, middle cheliff

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Authors: Benhenni Abdellaziz

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Irrigation is a limiting factor for agricultural production and socio-economic development of many countries in arid and semiarid in the world. However, the sustainability of irrigation systems requires a rational management of the water resource that is becoming increasingly rare in these regions. The objective of this work is to apply a geographic information system (GIS) coupled to a model for calculating crop water requirements (CROPWATER) for the management of irrigation water in irrigated area and offer managers with an effective tool to better manage water resources in these areas. The application area of GIS is the irrigated perimeter of Western Middle Cheliff which is located in a semi-arid region (Middle Cheliff). The scope in question is a considerable agrarian dynamics and an increased need for irrigation of most crops.

Keywords: geographical information, irrigation, economical, use rational

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Authors: Ainura Tursunalieva, Irene Hudson

Abstract:

Continuous improvement of both the quality and safety of health care is an important goal in Australia and internationally. The intensive care unit (ICU) receives patients with a wide variety of and severity of illnesses. Accurately identifying patients at risk of developing complications or dying is crucial to increasing healthcare efficiency. Thus, it is essential for clinicians and researchers to have a robust framework capable of evaluating the risk profile of a patient. ICU scoring systems provide such a framework. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II are ICU scoring systems frequently used for assessing the severity of acute illness. These scoring systems collect multiple risk factors for each patient including physiological measurements then render the assessment outcomes of individual risk factors into a single numerical value. A higher score is related to a more severe patient condition. Furthermore, the Mortality Probability Model II uses logistic regression based on independent risk factors to predict a patient’s probability of mortality. An important overlooked limitation of SAPS II and MPM II is that they do not, to date, include interaction terms between a patient’s vital signs. This is a prominent oversight as it is likely there is an interplay among vital signs. The co-existence of certain conditions may pose a greater health risk than when these conditions exist independently. One barrier to including such interaction terms in predictive models is the dimensionality issue as it becomes difficult to use variable selection. We propose an innovative scoring system which takes into account a dependence structure among patient’s vital signs, such as systolic and diastolic blood pressures, heart rate, pulse interval, and peripheral oxygen saturation. Copulas will capture the dependence among normally distributed and skewed variables as some of the vital sign distributions are skewed. The estimated dependence parameter will then be incorporated into the traditional scoring systems to adjust the points allocated for the individual vital sign measurements. The same dependence parameter will also be used to create an alternative copula-based model for predicting a patient’s probability of mortality. The new copula-based approach will accommodate not only a patient’s trajectories of vital signs but also the joint dependence probabilities among the vital signs. We hypothesise that this approach will produce more stable assessments and lead to more time efficient and accurate predictions. We will use two data sets: (1) 250 ICU patients admitted once to the Chui Regional Hospital (Kyrgyzstan) and (2) 37 ICU patients’ agitation-sedation profiles collected by the Hunter Medical Research Institute (Australia). Both the traditional scoring approach and our copula-based approach will be evaluated using the Brier score to indicate overall model performance, the concordance (or c) statistic to indicate the discriminative ability (or area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve), and goodness-of-fit statistics for calibration. We will also report discrimination and calibration values and establish visualization of the copulas and high dimensional regions of risk interrelating two or three vital signs in so-called higher dimensional ROCs.

Keywords: copula, intensive unit scoring system, ROC curves, vital sign dependence

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Nino Chikhladze, Tamar Dochviri, Nato Pitskhelauri, Maia Bitskhinashvili

Abstract:

Population aging is a key social and demographic trend of the 21st century. Falls represent a prevalent geriatric syndrome that poses significant risks to the health and independence of older adults. The World Health Organization notes a lack of comprehensive data on falls in low- and middle-income countries, complicating the creation of effective prevention programs. To the authors’ best knowledge, no such studies have been conducted in Georgia. The aim of the study is to explore the epidemiology of falls in the elderly population. The hospitalization database of the National Center for Disease Control and Public Health of Georgia was used for the retrospective study. Falls-related injuries were identified using ICD-10 classifications using the class XIX (S and T codes) and class XX for the type of injury (V-Y codes). Statistical data analyses were done using SPSS software version 23.0. The total number of fall-related hospitalizations for individuals aged 65 and older from 2015 to 2021 was 29,697. The study revealed that falls accounted for an average of 63% (ranging from 59% to 66%) of all hospitalizations and 68% (ranging from 65% to 70%) of injury-related hospitalizations during this period. The 69% of all patients were women and 31%-men (Chi2=4482.1, p<0.001). The highest rate of hospitalization was in the age groups 80-84 and 75-79. The probability of fall-related hospitalization was significantly higher in women (p<0.001) compared to men in all age groups except 65-69 years. In the target age group of 65 years and older, the probability of hospitalization increased significantly with an increase in age (p<0.001). The study's results can be leveraged to create evidence-based awareness programs, design targeted multi-domain interventions addressing specific risk factors, and enhance the quality of geriatric healthcare services in Georgia.

Keywords: elderly population, falls, geriatric patients, hospitalization, injuries

Procedia PDF Downloads 28

Authors: Mei-Jie Xu, Yang Zhong

Abstract:

Based on the symplectic geometry method, the theory of Hamilton system can be applied in the analysis of problem solved using the theory of elasticity and in the solution of elliptic partial differential equations. With this technique, this paper derives the theoretical solution for a thick rectangular plate with four free edges supported on a Winkler foundation by variable separation method. In this method, the governing equation of thick plate was first transformed into state equations in the Hamilton space. The theoretical solution of this problem was next obtained by applying the method of variable separation based on the Hamilton system. Compared with traditional theoretical solutions for rectangular plates, this method has the advantage of not having to assume the form of deflection functions in the solution process. Numerical examples are presented to verify the validity of the proposed solution method.

Keywords: symplectic geometry method, Winkler foundation, thick rectangular plate, variable separation method, Hamilton system

Procedia PDF Downloads 305