Search results for: quantitative pairwise comparison

Authors: Jana Andzane, Gunta Kunakova, Margarita Baitimirova, Mikelis Marnauza, Floriana Lombardi, Donats Erts

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Bismuth selenide (Bi₂Se₃) is known as a narrow band gap semiconductor with pronounced thermoelectric (TE) and topological insulator (TI) properties. Unique TI properties offer exciting possibilities for fundamental research as observing the exciton condensate and Majorana fermions, as well as practical application in spintronic and quantum information. In turn, TE properties of this material can be applied for wide range of thermoelectric applications, as well as for broadband photodetectors and near-infrared sensors. Nanostructuring of this material results in improvement of TI properties due to suppression of the bulk conductivity, and enhancement of TE properties because of increased phonon scattering at the nanoscale grains and interfaces. Regarding TE properties, crystallographic growth direction, as well as orientation of the nanostructures relative to the growth substrate, play significant role in improvement of TE performance of nanostructured material. For instance, Bi₂Se₃ layers consisting of randomly oriented nanostructures and/or of combination of them with planar nanostructures show significantly enhanced in comparison with bulk and only planar Bi₂Se₃ nanostructures TE properties. In this work, a catalyst-free vapour-solid deposition technique was applied for controlled obtaining of different types of Bi₂Se₃ nanostructures and continuous nanostructured layers for targeted applications. For example, separated Bi₂Se₃ nanoplates, nanobelts and nanowires can be used for investigations of TI properties; consisting from merged planar and/or randomly oriented nanostructures Bi₂Se₃ layers are useful for applications in heat-to-power conversion devices and infrared detectors. The vapour-solid deposition was carried out using quartz tube furnace (MTI Corp), equipped with an inert gas supply and pressure/temperature control system. Bi₂Se₃ nanostructures/nanostructured layers of desired type were obtained by adjustment of synthesis parameters (process temperature, deposition time, pressure, carrier gas flow) and selection of deposition substrate (glass, quartz, mica, indium-tin-oxide, graphene and carbon nanotubes). Morphology, structure and composition of obtained Bi₂Se₃ nanostructures and nanostructured layers were inspected using SEM, AFM, EDX and HRTEM techniques, as well as home-build experimental setup for thermoelectric measurements. It was found that introducing of temporary carrier gas flow into the process tube during the synthesis and deposition substrate choice significantly influence nanostructures formation mechanism. Electrical, thermoelectric, and topological insulator properties of different types of deposited Bi₂Se₃ nanostructures and nanostructured coatings are characterized as a function of thickness and discussed.

Keywords: bismuth seleinde, nanostructures, topological insulator, vapour-solid deposition

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Authors: Idowu R. Akomolafe, Naven Chetty

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Background: The widespread medical application of ionizing radiation has raised public concern about radiation exposure and, thus, associated cancer risk. The production of reactive oxygen species and free radicals as a result of radiation exposure can cause severe damage to deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) of cells, thus leading to biological effect. Radiotherapy is an excellent modality in the treatment of cancerous cells, comes with a few challenges. A significant challenge is the exposure of healthy cells surrounding the tumour to radiation. The last few decades have witnessed lots of attention shifted to plants, herbs, and natural product as an alternative to synthetic compound for radioprotection. Thus, the study investigated the radioprotective efficacy of Costus afer against whole-body radiation-induced haematological, histopathological disorder in mice. Materials and Method: Fifty-four mice were randomly divided into nine groups. Animals were pretreated with the extract of Costus afer by oral gavage for six days before irradiation. Control: 6 mice received feed and water only; 6 mice received feed, water, and 3Gy; 6 mice received feed, water, and 6Gy; experimental: 6 mice received 250 mg/kg extract; 6 mice received 500 mg/kg extract; 6 mice received 250 mg/kg extract and 3Gy; 6 mice received 500 mg/kg extract and 3Gy; 6 mice received 250 mg/kg extract and 6Gy; 6 mice received 500 mg/kg extract and 6Gy in addition to feeding and water. The irradiation was done at the Radiotherapy and Oncology Department of Grey's Hospital using linear accelerator (LINAC). Thirty-six mice were sacrificed by cervical dislocation 48 hours after irradiation, and blood was collected for haematology tests. Also, the liver and kidney of the sacrificed mice were surgically removed for histopathology tests. The remaining eighteen (18) mice were used for mortality and survival studies. Data were analysed by one-way ANOVA, followed by Tukey's multiple comparison test. Results: Prior administration of Costus afer extract decreased the symptoms of radiation sickness and caused a significant delay in the mortality as demonstrated in the experimental mice. The first mortality was recorded on day-5 post irradiation, and this happened to the group E- that is, mice that received 6Gy but no extract. There was significant protection in the experimental mice, as demonstrated in the blood counts against hematopoietic and gastrointestinal damage when compared with the control. The protection was seen in the increase in blood counts of experimental animals and the number of survivor. The protection offered by Costus afer may be due to its ability to scavenge free radicals and restore gastrointestinal and bone marrow damage produced by radiation. Conclusions: The study has demonstrated that exposure of mice to radiation could cause modifications in the haematological and histopathological parameters of irradiated mice. However, the changes were relieved by the methanol extract of Costus afer, probably through its free radical scavenging and antioxidant properties.

Keywords: costus afer, hematological, mortality, radioprotection, radiotherapy

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Authors: Benito Minjarez, Jesse Haramati, Yury Rodriguez-Yanez, Florencio Recendiz-Hurtado, Juan-Pedro Luna-Arias, Salvador Mena-Munguia

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During the last decades, the world has experienced a rapid industrialization and an expanding economy favoring a demographic boom. As a consequence, countries around the world have focused on developing new strategies related to the production of different farm products in order to meet future demands. Consequently, different strategies have been developed seeking to improve the major food products for both humans and livestock. Corn, after wheat and rice, is the third most important crop globally and is the primary food source for both humans and livestock in many regions around the globe. In addition, maize (Zea mays) is an important source of protein accounting for up to 60% of the daily human protein supply. Generally, many of the cereal grains have proteins with relatively low nutritional value, when they are compared with proteins from meat. In the case of corn, much of the protein is found in the endosperm (75 to 85%) and is deficient in two essential amino acids, lysine, and tryptophan. This deficiency results in an imbalance of amino acids and low protein content; normal maize varieties have less than half of the recommended amino acids for human nutrition. In addition, studies have shown that this deficiency has been associated with symptoms of growth impairment, anemia, hypoproteinemia, and fatty liver. Due to the fact that most of the presently available maize varieties do not contain the quality and quantity of proteins necessary for a balanced diet, different countries have focused on the research of quality protein maize (QPM). Researchers have characterized QPM noting that these varieties may contain between 70 to 100% more residues of the amino acids essential for animal and human nutrition, lysine, and tryptophan, than common corn. Several countries in Africa, Latin America, as well as China, have incorporated QPM in their agricultural development plan. Large parts of these countries have chosen a specific QPM variety based on their local needs and climate. Reviews have described the breeding methods of maize and have revealed the lack of studies on genetic and proteomic diversity of proteins in QPM varieties, and their genetic relationships with normal maize varieties. Therefore, molecular marker identification using tools such as mass spectrometry may accelerate the selection of plants that carry the desired proteins with high lysine and tryptophan concentration. To date, QPM maize lines have played a very important role in alleviating the malnutrition, and better characterization of these lines would provide a valuable nutritional enhancement for use in the resource-poor regions of the world. Thus, the objectives of this study were to identify proteins in QPM maize in comparison with a common maize line as a control.

Keywords: corn, mass spectrometry, QPM, tryptophan

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Authors: Rizvi Hasan

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Male factor infertility due to abnormalities in prolactin levels is encountered in a significant proportion. This was a case-control study carried out to determine the effects of prolactin abnormalities in normal males with infertility, recruiting 297 male infertile patients with informed written consent. All underwent a Basic Seminal Fluid Analysis (BSA) and endocrine profiles of FSH, LH, testosterone and prolactin (PRL) hormones using the random access chemiluminescent immunoassay method (normal range 2.5-17ng/ml). Age, weight, and height matched voluntary controls were recruited for comparison. None of the cases had anatomical, medical or surgical disorders related to infertility. Among the controls; mean age 33.2yrs ± 5.2, BMI 21.04 ± 1.39kgm-2, BSA 34×106, a number of children fathered 2±1, PRL 6.78 ± 2.92ng/ml. Of the 297 patients, 28 were hyperprolactinaemic while one was hypoprolactinaemic. All the hyperprolactinaemic patients had oligoasthenospermia, abnormal morphology and decreased viability. The serum testosterone levels were markedly lowered in 26 (92.86%) of the hyperprolactinaemic subjects. In the other 2 hyperprolactinaemic subjects and the single hypoprolactinaemic subject, the serum testosterone levels were normal. FSH and LH were normal in all patients. The 29 male patients with abnormalities in their serum PRL profiles were followed up for 12 months. The 28 patients suffering from hyperprolactinaemia were treated with oral bromocriptine in a dose of 2.5 mg twice daily. The hypoprolactinaemic patient defaulted treatment. From the follow-up, it was evident that 19 (67.86%) of the treated patients responded after 3 months of therapy while 4 (14.29%) showed improvement after approximately 6 months of bromocriptine therapy. One patient responded after 1 year of therapy while 2 patients showed improvements although not up to normal levels within the same period. Response to treatment was assessed by improvement in their BSA parameters. Prolactin abnormalities affect the male reproductive system and semen parameters necessitating further studies to ascertain the exact role of prolactin on the male reproductive tract. A parallel study was carried out incorporating 200 male white rats that were grouped and subjected to variations in their serum PRL levels. At the end of 100 days of treatment, these rats were subjected to morphological studies of their male reproductive tracts.Varying morphological changes depending on the levels of PRL changes induced were evident. Notable changes were arrest of spermatogenesis at the spermatid stage, a reduced testicular cellularity, a reduction in microvilli of the pseudostratified epithelial lining of the epididymis, while measurement of the tubular diameter showed a 30% reduction compared to normal tissue. There were no changes in the vas deferens, seminal vesicles, and the prostate. It is evident that both hyperprolactinaemia and hypoprolactinaemia have a direct effect on the morphology and function of the male reproductive tract. The morphological studies carried out on the groups of rats who were subjected to variations in their PRL levels could be the basis for infertility in male human beings.

Keywords: male factor infertility, morphological studies, prolactin, seminal fluid analysis

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Authors: Deepti Kumari, Upamanyu Hore

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Cities are an example of a human-modified environment with few fragments of urban green spaces, which are widely considered for urban biodiversity. The study aims to address the avifaunal diversity in urban parks based on the park size and their urbanization intensity. Also, understanding the key factors affecting species composition and structure as birds are a good indicator of a healthy ecosystem, and they are sensitive to changes in the environment. A 50 m-long line-transect method is used to survey birds in 39 urban parks in Delhi, India. Habitat variables, including vegetation (percentage of non-native trees, percentage of native trees, top canopy cover, sub-canopy cover, diameter at breast height, ground vegetation cover, shrub height) were measured using the quadrat method along the transect, and disturbance variables (distance from water, distance from road, distance from settlement, park area, visitor rate, and urbanization intensity) were measured using ArcGIS and google earth. We analyzed species data for diversity and richness. We explored the relation of species diversity and richness to habitat variables using the multi-model inference approach. Diversity and richness are found significant in different park sizes and their urbanization intensity. Medium size park supports more diversity, whereas large size park has more richness. However, diversity and richness both declined with increasing urbanization intensity. The result of CCA revealed that species composition in urban parks was positively associated with tree diameter at breast height and distance from the settlement. On the model selection approach, disturbance variables, especially distance from road, urbanization intensity, and visitors are the best predictors for the species richness of birds in urban parks. In comparison, multiple regression analysis between habitat variables and bird diversity suggested that native tree species in the park may explain the diversity pattern of birds in urban parks. Feeding guilds such as insectivores, omnivores, carnivores, granivores, and frugivores showed a significant relation with vegetation variables, while carnivores and scavenger bird species mainly responded with disturbance variables. The study highlights the importance of park size in urban areas and their urbanization intensity. It also indicates that distance from the settlement, distance from the road, urbanization intensity, visitors, diameter at breast height, and native tree species can be important determining factors for bird richness and diversity in urban parks. The study also concludes that the response of feeding guilds to vegetation and disturbance in urban parks varies. Therefore, we recommend that park size and surrounding urban matrix should be considered in order to increase bird diversity and richness in urban areas for designing and planning.

Keywords: diversity, feeding guild, urban park, urbanization intensity

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Authors: Nguyen J. M., Lucas G., Ruan S., Digonnet H., Antonioli D.

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Introduction: Deep Learning (DL) is a very powerful tool for analyzing image data. But for tabular data, it cannot compete with machine learning methods like XGBoost. The research question becomes: can tabular data be transformed into images that can be analyzed by simple CNNs (Convolutional Neuron Networks)? Will DL be the absolute tool for data classification? All current solutions consist in repositioning the variables in a 2x2 matrix using their correlation proximity. In doing so, it obtains an image whose pixels are the variables. We implement a technology, DeepNIC, that offers the possibility of obtaining an image for each variable, which can be analyzed by simple CNNs. Material and method: The 'ROP' (Regression OPtimized) model is a binary and atypical decision tree whose nodes are managed by a new artificial neuron, the Neurop. By positioning an artificial neuron in each node of the decision trees, it is possible to make an adjustment on a theoretically infinite number of variables at each node. From this new decision tree whose nodes are artificial neurons, we created the concept of a 'Random Forest of Perfect Trees' (RFPT), which disobeys Breiman's concepts by assembling very large numbers of small trees with no classification errors. From the results of the RFPT, we developed a family of 10 statistical information criteria, Nguyen Information Criterion (NICs), which evaluates in 3 dimensions the predictive quality of a variable: Performance, Complexity and Multiplicity of solution. A NIC is a probability that can be transformed into a grey level. The value of a NIC depends essentially on 2 super parameters used in Neurops. By varying these 2 super parameters, we obtain a 2x2 matrix of probabilities for each NIC. We can combine these 10 NICs with the functions AND, OR, and XOR. The total number of combinations is greater than 100,000. In total, we obtain for each variable an image of at least 1166x1167 pixels. The intensity of the pixels is proportional to the probability of the associated NIC. The color depends on the associated NIC. This image actually contains considerable information about the ability of the variable to make the prediction of Y, depending on the presence or absence of other variables. A basic CNNs model was trained for supervised classification. Results: The first results are impressive. Using the GSE22513 public data (Omic data set of markers of Taxane Sensitivity in Breast Cancer), DEEPNic outperformed other statistical methods, including XGBoost. We still need to generalize the comparison on several databases. Conclusion: The ability to transform any tabular variable into an image offers the possibility of merging image and tabular information in the same format. This opens up great perspectives in the analysis of metadata.

Keywords: tabular data, CNNs, NICs, DeepNICs, random forest of perfect trees, classification

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Authors: Oksana G. Cherednichenko, Anastasia L. Pilyugina, Sergey N.Lukashenko, Elena G. Gubitskaya

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The estimation of accumulated radiation doses in people professionally exposed to ionizing radiation was performed using methods of biological (chromosomal aberrations frequency in lymphocytes) and physical (radionuclides analysis in urine, whole-body radiation meter, individual thermoluminescent dosimeters) dosimetry. A group of 84 "A" category employees after their work in the territory of former Semipalatinsk test site (Kazakhstan) was investigated. The dose rate in some funnels exceeds 40 μSv/h. After radionuclides determination in urine using radiochemical and WBC methods, it was shown that the total effective dose of personnel internal exposure did not exceed 0.2 mSv/year, while an acceptable dose limit for staff is 20 mSv/year. The range of external radiation doses measured with individual thermo-luminescent dosimeters was 0.3-1.406 µSv. The cytogenetic examination showed that chromosomal aberrations frequency in staff was 4.27±0.22%, which is significantly higher than at the people from non-polluting settlement Tausugur (0.87±0.1%) (р ≤ 0.01) and citizens of Almaty (1.6±0.12%) (р≤ 0.01). Chromosomal type aberrations accounted for 2.32±0.16%, 0.27±0.06% of which were dicentrics and centric rings. The cytogenetic analysis of different types group radiosensitivity among «professionals» (age, sex, ethnic group, epidemiological data) revealed no significant differences between the compared values. Using various techniques by frequency of dicentrics and centric rings, the average cumulative radiation dose for group was calculated, and that was 0.084-0.143 Gy. To perform comparative individual dosimetry using physical and biological methods of dose assessment, calibration curves (including own ones) and regression equations based on general frequency of chromosomal aberrations obtained after irradiation of blood samples by gamma-radiation with the dose rate of 0,1 Gy/min were used. Herewith, on the assumption of individual variation of chromosomal aberrations frequency (1–10%), the accumulated dose of radiation varied 0-0.3 Gy. The main problem in the interpretation of individual dosimetry results is reduced to different reaction of the objects to irradiation - radiosensitivity, which dictates the need of quantitative definition of this individual reaction and its consideration in the calculation of the received radiation dose. The entire examined contingent was assigned to a group based on the received dose and detected cytogenetic aberrations. Radiosensitive individuals, at the lowest received dose in a year, showed the highest frequency of chromosomal aberrations (5.72%). In opposite, radioresistant individuals showed the lowest frequency of chromosomal aberrations (2.8%). The cohort correlation according to the criterion of radio-sensitivity in our research was distributed as follows: radio-sensitive (26.2%) — medium radio-sensitivity (57.1%), radioresistant (16.7%). Herewith, the dispersion for radioresistant individuals is 2.3; for the group with medium radio-sensitivity — 3.3; and for radio-sensitive group — 9. These data indicate the highest variation of characteristic (reactions to radiation effect) in the group of radio-sensitive individuals. People with medium radio-sensitivity show significant long-term correlation (0.66; n=48, β ≥ 0.999) between the values of doses defined according to the results of cytogenetic analysis and dose of external radiation obtained with the help of thermoluminescent dosimeters. Mathematical models based on the type of violation of the radiation dose according to the professionals radiosensitivity level were offered.

Keywords: biodosimetry, chromosomal aberrations, ionizing radiation, radiosensitivity

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Authors: Faidon Kyriakou, William Dempster, David Nash

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Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) is a major life-threatening pathology for which modern approaches reduce the need for open surgery through the use of stenting. The success of stenting though is sometimes jeopardized by the final position of the stent graft inside the human artery which may result in migration, endoleaks or blood flow occlusion. Herein, a finite element (FE) model of the commercial medical device AnacondaTM (Vascutek, Terumo) has been developed and validated in order to create a numerical tool able to provide useful clinical insight before the surgical procedure takes place. The AnacondaTM device consists of a series of NiTi rings sewn onto woven polyester fabric, a structure that despite its column stiffness is flexible enough to be used in very tortuous geometries. For the purposes of this study, a FE model of the device was built in Abaqus® (version 6.13-2) with the combination of beam, shell and surface elements; the choice of these building blocks was made to keep the computational cost to a minimum. The validation of the numerical model was performed by comparing the deployed position of a full stent graft device inside a constructed AAA with a duplicate set-up in Abaqus®. Specifically, an AAA geometry was built in CAD software and included regions of both high and low tortuosity. Subsequently, the CAD model was 3D printed into a transparent aneurysm, and a stent was deployed in the lab following the steps of the clinical procedure. Images on the frontal and sagittal planes of the experiment allowed the comparison with the results of the numerical model. By overlapping the experimental and computational images, the mean and maximum distances between the rings of the two models were measured in the longitudinal, and the transverse direction and, a 5mm upper bound was set as a limit commonly used by clinicians when working with simulations. The two models showed very good agreement of their spatial positioning, especially in the less tortuous regions. As a result, and despite the inherent uncertainties of a surgical procedure, the FE model allows confidence that the final position of the stent graft, when deployed in vivo, can also be predicted with significant accuracy. Moreover, the numerical model run in just a few hours, an encouraging result for applications in the clinical routine. In conclusion, the efficient modelling of a complicated structure which combines thin scaffolding and fabric has been demonstrated to be feasible. Furthermore, the prediction capabilities of the location of each stent ring, as well as the global shape of the graft, has been shown. This can allow surgeons to better plan their procedures and medical device manufacturers to optimize their designs. The current model can further be used as a starting point for patient specific CFD analysis.

Keywords: AAA, efficiency, finite element analysis, stent deployment

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Authors: Carolina N. França, Jônatas B. do Amaral, Maria C.O. Izar, Ighor L. Teixeira, Francisco A. Fonseca

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Introduction: Atherosclerosis is a progressive disease, characterized by lipid and fibrotic element deposition in large-caliber arteries. Conditions related to the development of atherosclerosis, as dyslipidemia, hypertension, diabetes, and smoking are associated with endothelial dysfunction. There is a frequent recurrence of cardiovascular outcomes after acute myocardial infarction and, at this sense, cycles of mobilization of monocyte subtypes (classical, intermediate and nonclassical) secondary to myocardial infarction may determine the colonization of atherosclerotic plaques in different stages of the development, contributing to early recurrence of ischemic events. The recruitment of different monocyte subsets during inflammatory process requires the expression of chemokine receptors CCR2, CCR5, and CX3CR1, to promote the migration of monocytes to the inflammatory site. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of lipid-lowering treatment by six months in the monocyte phenotype and chemokine receptor levels of patients after Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI). Methods: This is a PROBE (prospective, randomized, open-label trial with blinded endpoints) study (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02428374). Adult patients (n=147) of both genders, ageing 18-75 years, were randomized in a 2x2 factorial design for treatment with rosuvastatin 20 mg/day or simvastatin 40 mg/day plus ezetimibe 10 mg/day as well as ticagrelor 90 mg 2x/day and clopidogrel 75 mg, in addition to conventional AMI therapy. Blood samples were collected at baseline, after one month and six months of treatment. Monocyte subtypes (classical - inflammatory, intermediate - phagocytic and nonclassical – anti-inflammatory) were identified, quantified and characterized by flow cytometry, as well as the expressions of the chemokine receptors (CCR2, CCR5 and CX3CR1) were also evaluated in the mononuclear cells. Results: After six months of treatment, there was an increase in the percentage of classical monocytes and reduction in the nonclassical monocytes (p=0.038 and p < 0.0001 Friedman Test), without differences for intermediate monocytes. Besides, classical monocytes had higher expressions of CCR5 and CX3CR1 after treatment, without differences related to CCR2 (p < 0.0001 for CCR5 and CX3CR1; p=0.175 for CCR2). Intermediate monocytes had higher expressions of CCR5 and CX3CR1 and lower expression of CCR2 (p = 0.003; p < 0.0001 and p = 0.011, respectively). Nonclassical monocytes had lower expressions of CCR2 and CCR5, without differences for CX3CR1 (p < 0.0001; p = 0.009 and p = 0.138, respectively). There were no differences after the comparison between the four treatment arms. Conclusion: The data suggest a time-dependent modulation of classical and nonclassical monocytes and chemokine receptor levels. The higher percentage of classical monocytes (inflammatory cells) suggest a residual inflammatory risk, even under preconized treatments to AMI. Indeed, these changes do not seem to be affected by choice of the lipid-lowering strategy.

Keywords: acute myocardial infarction, chemokine receptors, lipid-lowering treatment, monocyte subtypes

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Authors: Amanda Cristina da Silva Reis, Bruno Paulino Venâncio, Cristina Theada Ferreira, Andrea Fialho do Prado, Lucimara Guedes dos Santos, Aline de Souza Gravatá, Larissa Lima Gonçalves, Isabella Aparecida Ferreira Moretto, João Carlos Ferrari Corrêa, Fernanda Ishida Corrêa

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Objective: To compare two protocols of Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS) on quadriceps muscle spasticity in individuals diagnosed with Multiple Sclerosis (MS). Method: Clinical, crossover study, in which six adult individuals diagnosed with MS and spasticity in the lower limbs were randomized to receive one session of high-frequency (≥5Hz) and low-frequency (≤ 1Hz) TMS on motor cortex (M1) hotspot for quadriceps muscle, with a one-week interval between the sessions. To assess the spasticity was applied the Ashworth scale and were analyzed the latency time (ms) of the motor evoked potential (MEP) and the central motor conduction time (CMCT) of the bilateral quadriceps muscle. Assessments were performed before and after each intervention. The difference between groups was analyzed using the Friedman test, with a significance level of 0.05 adopted. Results: All statistical analyzes were performed using the SPSS Statistic version 26 programs, with a significance level established for the analyzes at p<0.05. Shapiro Wilk normality test. Parametric data were represented as mean and standard deviation for non-parametric variables, median and interquartile range, and frequency and percentage for categorical variables. There was no clinical change in quadriceps spasticity assessed using the Ashworth scale for the 1 Hz (p=0.813) and 5 Hz (p= 0.232) protocols for both limbs. Motor Evoked Potential latency time: in the 5hz protocol, there was no significant change for the contralateral side from pre to post-treatment (p>0.05), and for the ipsilateral side, there was a decrease in latency time of 0.07 seconds (p<0.05 ); for the 1Hz protocol there was an increase of 0.04 seconds in the latency time (p<0.05) for the contralateral side to the stimulus, and for the ipsilateral side there was a decrease in the latency time of 0.04 seconds (p=<0.05), with a significant difference between the contralateral (p=0.007) and ipsilateral (p=0.014) groups. Central motor conduction time in the 1Hz protocol, there was no change for the contralateral side (p>0.05) and for the ipsilateral side (p>0.05). In the 5Hz protocol for the contralateral side, there was a small decrease in latency time (p<0.05) and for the ipsilateral side, there was a decrease of 0.6 seconds in the latency time (p<0.05) with a significant difference between groups (p=0.019). Conclusion: A high or low-frequency session does not change spasticity, but it is observed that when the low-frequency protocol was performed, there was an increase in latency time on the stimulated side, and a decrease in latency time on the non-stimulated side, considering then that inhibiting the motor cortex increases cortical excitability on the opposite side.

Keywords: multiple sclerosis, spasticity, motor evoked potential, transcranial magnetic stimulation

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Authors: Athanasia Petropoulou

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While there is a common understanding that a person’s sex, gender, gender identity, and sexual orientation shape every stage of the migration experience, theories of international migration had until recently not been focused on exploring and incorporating a gender perspective in their analysis. In a similar vein, refugee law has long been the object of criticisms for failing to recognize and respond appropriately to women’s and sexual minorities’ experiences of persecution. The present analysis attempts to depict the challenges faced by the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) and U.S. courts when adjudicating in cases involving asylum claims with a gendered perspective. By providing a comparison between adjudicating strategies of international and national jurisdictions, the article aims to identify common or distinctive approaches in addressing gendered based claims. The paper argues that, despite the different nature of the judicial bodies and the different legal instruments applied respectively, judges face similar challenges in this context and often fail to qualify and address the gendered dimensions of asylum claims properly. The ECtHR plays a fundamental role in safeguarding human rights protection in Europe not only for European citizens but also for people fleeing violence, war, and dire living conditions. However, this role becomes more difficult to fulfill, not only because of the obvious institutional constraints but also because cases related to claims of asylum seekers concern a domain closely linked to State sovereignty. Amid the current “refugee crisis,” risk assessment performed by national authorities, like in the process of asylum determination, is shaped by wider geopolitical and economic considerations. The failure to recognize and duly address the gendered dimension of non - refoulement claims, one of the many shortcomings of these processes, is reflected in the decisions of the ECtHR. As regards U.S. case law, the study argues that U.S. courts either fail to apply any connection between asylum claims and their gendered dimension or tend to approach gendered based claims through the lens of the “political opinion” or “membership of a particular social group” reasons of fear of persecution. This exercise becomes even more difficult, taking into account that the U.S. asylum law inappropriately qualifies gendered-based claims. The paper calls for more sociologically informed decision-making practices and for a more contextualized and relational approach in the assessment of the risk of ill-treatment and persecution. Such an approach is essential for unearthing the gendered patterns of persecution and addressing effectively related claims, thus securing the human rights of asylum seekers.

Keywords: asylum, European court of human rights, gender, human rights, U.S. courts

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Authors: Emily Wood, James K. Westphal, Itamar Lerner

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Background: Polysomnography (PSG) recordings are regularly used in research and clinical settings to study sleep and sleep-related disorders. Typical PSG studies are conducted in professional laboratories and performed by qualified researchers. However, the number of sleep labs worldwide is disproportionate to the increasing number of individuals with sleep disorders like sleep apnea and insomnia. Consequently, there is a growing need to supply cheaper yet reliable means to measure sleep, preferably autonomously by subjects in their own home. Over the last decade, a variety of devices for self-monitoring of sleep became available in the market; however, very few have been directly validated against PSG to demonstrate their ability to perform reliable automatic sleep scoring. Two popular mobile EEG-based systems that have published validation results, the DREEM 3 headband and the Z-Machine, have never been directly compared one to the other by independent researchers. The current study aimed to compare the performance of DREEM 3 and the Z-Machine to help investigators and clinicians decide which of these devices may be more suitable for their studies. Methods: 26 participants have completed the study for credit or monetary compensation. Exclusion criteria included any history of sleep, neurological or psychiatric disorders. Eligible participants arrived at the lab in the afternoon and received the two devices. They then spent two consecutive nights monitoring their sleep at home. Participants were also asked to keep a sleep log, indicating the time they fell asleep, woke up, and the number of awakenings occurring during the night. Data from both devices, including detailed sleep hypnograms in 30-second epochs (differentiating Wake, combined N1/N2, N3; and Rapid Eye Movement sleep), were extracted and aligned upon retrieval. For analysis, the number of awakenings each night was defined as four or more consecutive wake epochs between sleep onset and termination. Total sleep time (TST) and the number of awakenings were compared to subjects’ sleep logs to measure consistency with the subjective reports. In addition, the sleep scores from each device were compared epoch-by-epoch to calculate the agreement between the two devices using Cohen’s Kappa. All analysis was performed using Matlab 2021b and SPSS 27. Results/Conclusion: Subjects consistently reported longer times spent asleep than the time reported by each device (M= 448 minutes for sleep logs compared to M= 406 and M= 345 minutes for the DREEM and Z-Machine, respectively; both ps<0.05). Linear correlations between the sleep log and each device were higher for the DREEM than the Z-Machine for both TST and the number of awakenings, and, likewise, the mean absolute bias between the sleep logs and each device was higher for the Z-Machine for both TST (p<0.001) and awakenings (p<0.04). There was some indication that these effects were stronger for the second night compared to the first night. Epoch-by-epoch comparisons showed that the main discrepancies between the devices were for detecting N2 and REM sleep, while N3 had a high agreement. Overall, the DREEM headband seems superior for reliably scoring sleep at home.

Keywords: DREEM, EEG, seep monitoring, Z-machine

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Authors: Rajesh Ranjan, Marimuthu Palaniswami, A. A. Hashmi

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With the changing lifestyle and environment around us, the prevalence of the critical and incurable disease has proliferated. One such condition is the neurological disorder which is rampant among the old age population and is increasing at an unstoppable rate. Most of the neurological disorder patients suffer from some movement disorder affecting the movement of their body parts. Tremor is the most common movement disorder which is prevalent in such patients that infect the upper or lower limbs or both extremities. The tremor symptoms are commonly visible in Parkinson’s disease patient, and it can also be a pure tremor (essential tremor). The patients suffering from tremor face enormous trouble in performing the daily activity, and they always need a caretaker for assistance. In the clinics, the assessment of tremor is done through a manual clinical rating task such as Unified Parkinson’s disease rating scale which is time taking and cumbersome. Neurologists have also affirmed a challenge in differentiating a Parkinsonian tremor with the pure tremor which is essential in providing an accurate diagnosis. Therefore, there is a need to develop a monitoring and assistive tool for the tremor patient that keep on checking their health condition by coordinating them with the clinicians and caretakers for early diagnosis and assistance in performing the daily activity. In our research, we focus on developing a system for automatic classification of tremor which can accurately differentiate the pure tremor from the Parkinsonian tremor using a wearable accelerometer-based device, so that adequate diagnosis can be provided to the correct patient. In this research, a study was conducted in the neuro-clinic to assess the upper wrist movement of the patient suffering from Pure (Essential) tremor and Parkinsonian tremor using a wearable accelerometer-based device. Four tasks were designed in accordance with Unified Parkinson’s disease motor rating scale which is used to assess the rest, postural, intentional and action tremor in such patient. Various features such as time-frequency domain, wavelet-based and fast-Fourier transform based cross-correlation were extracted from the tri-axial signal which was used as input feature vector space for the different supervised and unsupervised learning tools for quantification of severity of tremor. A minimum covariance maximum correlation energy comparison index was also developed which was used as the input feature for various classification tools for distinguishing the PT and ET tremor types. An automatic system for efficient classification of tremor was developed using feature extraction methods, and superior performance was achieved using K-nearest neighbors and Support Vector Machine classifiers respectively.

Keywords: machine learning approach for neurological disorder assessment, automatic classification of tremor types, feature extraction method for tremor classification, neurological movement disorder, parkinsonian tremor, essential tremor

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Authors: Irina P. Starodubtseva, Aleksandr N. Pavlenko

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Quenching is a term generally accepted for the process of rapid cooling of a solid that is overheated above the thermodynamic limit of the liquid superheat. The main objective of many previous studies on quenching is to find a way to reduce the total time of the transient process. Computational experiments were performed to simulate quenching by a falling liquid nitrogen film of an extremely overheated vertical copper plate with a structured capillary-porous coating. The coating was produced by directed plasma spraying. Due to the complexities in physical pattern of quenching from chaotic processes to phase transition, the mechanism of heat transfer during quenching is still not sufficiently understood. To our best knowledge, no information exists on when and how the first stable liquid-solid contact occurs and how the local contact area begins to expand. Here we have more models and hypotheses than authentically established facts. The peculiarities of the quench front dynamics and heat transfer in the transient process are studied. The created numerical model determines the quench front velocity and the temperature fields in the heater, varying in space and time. The dynamic pattern of the running quench front obtained numerically satisfactorily correlates with the pattern observed in experiments. Capillary-porous coatings with straight and reverse orientation of crests are investigated. The results show that the cooling rate is influenced by thermal properties of the coating as well as the structure and geometry of the protrusions. The presence of capillary-porous coating significantly affects the dynamics of quenching and reduces the total quenching time more than threefold. This effect is due to the fact that the initialization of a quench front on a plate with a capillary-porous coating occurs at a temperature significantly higher than the thermodynamic limit of the liquid superheat, when a stable solid-liquid contact is thermodynamically impossible. Waves present on the liquid-vapor interface and protrusions on the complex micro-structured surface cause destabilization of the vapor film and the appearance of local liquid-solid micro-contacts even though the average integral surface temperature is much higher than the liquid superheat limit. The reliability of the results is confirmed by direct comparison with experimental data on the quench front velocity, the quench front geometry, and the surface temperature change over time. Knowledge of the quench front velocity and total time of transition process is required for solving practically important problems of nuclear reactors safety.

Keywords: capillary-porous coating, heat transfer, Leidenfrost phenomenon, numerical simulation, quenching

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Authors: Sajana Suwal, Ganesh R. Nhemafuki

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Evaluation of ground response under earthquake shaking is crucial in geotechnical earthquake engineering. Damage due to seismic excitation is mainly correlated to local geological and geotechnical conditions. It is evident from the past earthquakes (e.g. 1906 San Francisco, USA, 1923 Kanto, Japan) that the local geology has strong influence on amplitude and duration of ground motions. Since then significant studies has been conducted on ground motion amplification revealing the importance of influence of local geology on ground. Observations from the damaging earthquakes (e.g. Nigata and San Francisco, 1964; Irpinia, 1980; Mexico, 1985; Kobe, 1995; L’Aquila, 2009) divulged that non-uniform damage pattern, particularly in soft fluvio-lacustrine deposit is due to the local amplification of seismic ground motion. Non-uniform damage patterns are also observed in Kathmandu Valley during 1934 Bihar Nepal earthquake and recent 2015 Gorkha earthquake seemingly due to the modification of earthquake ground motion parameters. In this study, site effects resulting from amplification of soft soil in Kathmandu are presented. A large amount of subsoil data was collected and used for defining the appropriate subsoil model for the Kathamandu valley. A comparative study of one-dimensional total-stress equivalent linear and non-linear site response is performed using four strong ground motions for six sites of Kathmandu valley. In general, one-dimensional (1D) site-response analysis involves the excitation of a soil profile using the horizontal component and calculating the response at individual soil layers. In the present study, both equivalent linear and non-linear site response analyses were conducted using the computer program DEEPSOIL. The results show that there is no significant deviation between equivalent linear and non-linear site response models until the maximum strain reaches to 0.06-0.1%. Overall, it is clearly observed from the results that non-linear site response model perform better as compared to equivalent linear model. However, the significant deviation between two models is resulted from other influencing factors such as assumptions made in 1D site response, lack of accurate values of shear wave velocity and nonlinear properties of the soil deposit. The results are also presented in terms of amplification factors which are predicted to be around four times more in case of non-linear analysis as compared to equivalent linear analysis. Hence, the nonlinear behavior of soil prevails the urgent need of study of dynamic characteristics of the soft soil deposit that can specifically represent the site-specific design spectra for the Kathmandu valley for building resilient structures from future damaging earthquakes.

Keywords: deep soil, equivalent linear analysis, non-linear analysis, site response

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Authors: Kaaryn Cater

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People vary in how they perceive, process, and react to internal, external, social, and emotional environmental factors; some are more sensitive than others. Compassionate people have a highly reactive nervous system and are more impacted by positive and negative environmental conditions (Differential Susceptibility). Further, some sensitive individuals are disproportionately able to benefit from positive and supportive environments without necessarily suffering negative impacts in less supportive environments (Vantage Sensitivity). Environmental sensitivity is underpinned by physiological, genetic, and personality/temperamental factors, and the phenotypic expression of high sensitivity is Sensory Processing Sensitivity. The hallmarks of Sensory Processing Sensitivity are deep cognitive processing, emotional reactivity, high levels of empathy, noticing environmental subtleties, a tendency to observe new and novel situations, and a propensity to become overwhelmed when over-stimulated. Several educational advantages associated with high sensitivity include creativity, enhanced memory, divergent thinking, giftedness, and metacognitive monitoring. High sensitivity can also lead to some educational challenges, particularly managing multiple conflicting demands and negotiating low sensory thresholds. A mixed methods study was undertaken. In the first quantitative study, participants completed the Perceived Success in Study Survey (PSISS) and the Highly Sensitive Person Scale (HSPS-12). Inclusion criteria were current or previous postsecondary education experience. The survey was presented on social media, and snowball recruitment was employed (n=365). The Excel spreadsheets were uploaded to the statistical package for the social sciences (SPSS)26, and descriptive statistics found normal distribution. T-tests and analysis of variance (ANOVA) calculations found no difference in the responses of demographic groups, and Principal Components Analysis and the posthoc Tukey calculations identified positive associations between high sensitivity and three of the five PSISS factors. Further ANOVA calculations found positive associations between the PSISS and two of the three sensitivity subscales. This study included a response field to register interest in further research. Respondents who scored in the 70th percentile on the HSPS-12 were invited to participate in a semi-structured interview. Thirteen interviews were conducted remotely (12 female). Reflexive inductive thematic analysis was employed to analyse data, and a descriptive approach was employed to present data reflective of participant experience. The results of this study found that compassionate students prioritize work-life balance; employ a range of practical metacognitive study and self-care strategies; value independent learning; connect with learning that is meaningful; and are bothered by aspects of the physical learning environment, including lighting, noise, and indoor environmental pollutants. There is a dearth of research investigating sensitivity in the educational context, and these studies highlight the need to promote widespread education sector awareness of environmental sensitivity, and the need to include sensitivity in sector and institutional diversity and inclusion initiatives.

Keywords: differential susceptibility, highly sensitive person, learning, neurosensitivity, sensory processing sensitivity, vantage sensitivity

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Authors: Juan S. Mantilla, Peter Thomson

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Seismic events may result in discomfort on occupants of the buildings, structural damage or even buildings collapse. Traditional design aims to reduce dynamic response of structures by increasing stiffness, thus increasing the construction costs and the design forces. Structural control systems arise as an alternative to reduce these dynamic responses. A commonly used control systems in buildings are the passive friction dampers, which adds energy dissipation through damping mechanisms induced by sliding friction between their surfaces. Passive friction dampers are usually implemented on the diagonal of braced buildings, but such devices have the disadvantage that are optimal for a range of sliding force and out of that range its efficiency decreases. The above implies that each passive friction damper is designed, built and commercialized for a specific sliding/clamping force, in which the damper shift from a locked state to a slip state, where dissipates energy through friction. The risk of having a variation in the efficiency of the device according to the sliding force is that the dynamic properties of the building can change as result of many factor, even damage caused by a seismic event. In this case the expected forces in the building can change and thus considerably reduce the efficiency of the damper (that is designed for a specific sliding force). It is also evident than when a seismic event occurs the forces in each floor varies in the time what means that the damper's efficiency is not the best at all times. Semi-Active Friction devices adapt its sliding force trying to maintain its motion in the slipping phase as much as possible, because of this, the effectiveness of the device depends on the control strategy used. This paper deals with the development and performance evaluation of a low cost Semiactive Variable Friction Damper (SAVFD) in reduced scale to reduce vibrations of structures subject to earthquakes. The SAVFD consist in a (1) hydraulic brake adapted to (2) a servomotor which is controlled with an (3) Arduino board and acquires accelerations or displacement from (4) sensors in the immediately upper and lower floors and a (5) power supply that can be a pair of common batteries. A test structure, based on a Benchmark structure for structural control, was design and constructed. The SAVFD and the structure are experimentally characterized. A numerical model of the structure and the SAVFD is developed based on the dynamic characterization. Decentralized control algorithms were modeled and later tested experimentally using shaking table test using earthquake and frequency chirp signals. The controlled structure with the SAVFD achieved reductions greater than 80% in relative displacements and accelerations in comparison to the uncontrolled structure.

Keywords: earthquake response, friction damper, semiactive control, shaking table

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Authors: Vladimir Messerle, Alfred Mosse, Alexandr Ustimenko, Oleg Lavrichshev

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Hygiene and sanitary study of typical medical-biological waste made in Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and other countries show that their risk to the environment is much higher than that of most chemical wastes. For example, toxicity of solid waste (SW) containing cytotoxic drugs and antibiotics is comparable to toxicity of radioactive waste of high and medium level activity. This report presents the results of the thermodynamic analysis of thermal processing of SW and experiments at the developed plasma unit for SW processing. Thermodynamic calculations showed that the maximum yield of the synthesis gas at plasma gasification of SW in air and steam mediums is achieved at a temperature of 1600K. At the air plasma gasification of SW high-calorific synthesis gas with a concentration of 82.4% (СO – 31.7%, H2 – 50.7%) can be obtained, and at the steam plasma gasification – with a concentration of 94.5% (СO – 33.6%, H2 – 60.9%). Specific heat of combustion of the synthesis gas produced by air gasification amounts to 14267 kJ/kg, while by steam gasification - 19414 kJ/kg. At the optimal temperature (1600 K), the specific power consumption for air gasification of SW constitutes 1.92 kWh/kg, while for steam gasification - 2.44 kWh/kg. Experimental study was carried out in a plasma reactor. This is device of periodic action. The arc plasma torch of 70 kW electric power is used for SW processing. Consumption of SW was 30 kg/h. Flow of plasma-forming air was 12 kg/h. Under the influence of air plasma flame weight average temperature in the chamber reaches 1800 K. Gaseous products are taken out of the reactor into the flue gas cooling unit, and the condensed products accumulate in the slag formation zone. The cooled gaseous products enter the gas purification unit, after which via gas sampling system is supplied to the analyzer. Ventilation system provides a negative pressure in the reactor up to 10 mm of water column. Condensed products of SW processing are removed from the reactor after its stopping. By the results of experiments on SW plasma gasification the reactor operating conditions were determined, the exhaust gas analysis was performed and the residual carbon content in the slag was determined. Gas analysis showed the following composition of the gas at the exit of gas purification unit, (vol.%): СO – 26.5, H2 – 44.6, N2–28.9. The total concentration of the syngas was 71.1%, which agreed well with the thermodynamic calculations. The discrepancy between experiment and calculation by the yield of the target syngas did not exceed 16%. Specific power consumption for SW gasification in the plasma reactor according to the results of experiments amounted to 2.25 kWh/kg of working substance. No harmful impurities were found in both gas and condensed products of SW plasma gasification. Comparison of experimental results and calculations showed good agreement. Acknowledgement—This work was supported by Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan and Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation (Agreement on grant No. 14.607.21.0118, project RFMEF160715X0118).

Keywords: coal, efficiency, ignition, numerical modeling, plasma-fuel system, plasma generator

Procedia PDF Downloads 252

Authors: Diego F. Camacho, Cristian J. Mejia, Carlos Duque-Daza

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The recent widespread use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) has fueled a renewed interest in efficiency and performance of airfoils, particularly for applications at low and moderate Reynolds numbers, typical of this kind of vehicles. Most of previous efforts in the aeronautical industry, regarding aerodynamic efficiency, had been focused on high Reynolds numbers applications, typical of commercial airliners and large size aircrafts. However, in order to increase the levels of efficiency and to boost the performance of these UAV, it is necessary to explore new alternatives in terms of airfoil design and application of drag reduction techniques. The objective of the present work is to carry out the analysis and comparison of performance levels between a standard NACA0012 profile against another one featuring a wall protuberance or surface perturbation. A computational model, based on the finite volume method, is employed to evaluate the effect of the presence of geometrical distortions on the wall. The performance evaluation is achieved in terms of variations of drag and lift coefficients for the given profile. In particular, the aerodynamic performance of the new design, i.e. the airfoil with a surface perturbation, is examined under conditions of incompressible and subsonic flow in transient state. The perturbation considered is a shaped protrusion prescribed as a small surface deformation on the top wall of the aerodynamic profile. The ultimate goal by including such a controlled smooth artificial roughness was to alter the turbulent boundary layer. It is shown in the present work that such a modification has a dramatic impact on the aerodynamic characteristics of the airfoil, and if properly adjusted, in a positive way. The computational model was implemented using the unstructured, FVM-based open source C++ platform OpenFOAM. A number of numerical experiments were carried out at Reynolds number 5x104, based on the length of the chord and the free-stream velocity, and angles of attack 6° and 12°. A Large Eddy Simulation (LES) approach was used, together with the dynamic Smagorinsky approach as subgrid scale (SGS) model, in order to account for the effect of the small turbulent scales. The impact of the surface perturbation on the performance of the airfoil is judged in terms of changes in the drag and lift coefficients, as well as in terms of alterations of the main characteristics of the turbulent boundary layer on the upper wall. A dramatic change in the whole performance can be appreciated, including an arguably large level of lift-to-drag coefficient ratio increase for all angles and a size reduction of laminar separation bubble (LSB) for a twelve-angle-of-attack.

Keywords: CFD, LES, Lift-to-drag ratio, LSB, NACA 0012 airfoil

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Authors: Sushmita Roy Chowdhury, Steve Holding, Sujoy Khan

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The immunogenic responses of the lung towards the fungus Aspergillus fumigatus may range from invasive aspergillosis in the immunocompromised, fungal ball or infection within a cavity in the lung in those with structural lung lesions, or allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (ABPA). Patients with asthma or cystic fibrosis are particularly predisposed to ABPA. There are consensus guidelines that have established criteria for diagnosis of ABPA, but uncertainty remains on the serologic cut-off values that would increase the diagnostic specificity of ABPA. We retrospectively analyzed 80 patients with severe asthma and evidence of peripheral blood eosinophilia ( > 500) over the last 3 years who underwent all serologic tests to exclude ABPA. Total IgE, specific IgE and specific IgG levels against Aspergillus fumigatus were measured using ImmunoCAP Phadia-100 (Thermo Fisher Scientific, Sweden). The Modified ISHAM working group 2013 criteria (obligate criteria: asthma or cystic fibrosis, total IgE > 1000 IU/ml or > 417 kU/L and positive specific IgE Aspergillus fumigatus or skin test positivity; with ≥ 2 of peripheral eosinophilia, positive specific IgG Aspergillus fumigatus and consistent radiographic opacities) was used in the clinical workup for the final diagnosis of ABPA. Patients were divided into 3 groups - definite, possible, and no evidence of ABPA. Specific IgG Aspergillus fumigatus levels were not used to assign the patients into any of the groups. Of 80 patients (males 48, females 32; mean age 53.9 years ± SD 15.8) selected for the analysis, there were 30 patients who had positive specific IgE against Aspergillus fumigatus (37.5%). 13 patients fulfilled the Modified ISHAM working group 2013 criteria of ABPA (‘definite’), while 15 patients were ‘possible’ ABPA and 52 did not fulfill the criteria (not ABPA). As IgE levels were not normally distributed, median levels were used in the analysis. Median total IgE levels of patients with definite and possible ABPA were 2144 kU/L and 2597 kU/L respectively (non-significant), while median specific IgE Aspergillus fumigatus at 4.35 kUA/L and 1.47 kUA/L respectively were significantly different (comparison of standard deviations F-statistic 3.2267, significance level p=0.040). Mean levels of IgG anti-Aspergillus fumigatus in the three groups (definite, possible and no evidence of ABPA) were compared using ANOVA (Statgraphics Centurion Professional XV, Statpoint Inc). Mean levels of IgG anti-Aspergillus fumigatus (Gm3) in definite ABPA was 125.17 mgA/L ( ± SD 54.84, with 95%CI 92.03-158.32), while mean Gm3 levels in possible and no ABPA were 18.61 mgA/L and 30.05 mgA/L respectively. ANOVA showed a significant difference between the definite group and the other groups (p < 0.001). This was confirmed using multiple range tests (Fisher's least significant difference procedure). There was no significant difference between the possible ABPA and not ABPA groups (p > 0.05). The study showed that a sizeable proportion of patients with asthma are sensitized to Aspergillus fumigatus in this part of India. A higher cut-off value of Gm3 ≥ 80 mgA/L provides a higher serologic specificity towards definite ABPA. Long-term studies would provide us more information if those patients with 'possible' APBA and positive Gm3 later develop clear ABPA, and are different from the Gm3 negative group in this respect. Serologic testing with clear defined cut-offs are a valuable adjunct in the diagnosis of ABPA.

Keywords: allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis, Aspergillus fumigatus, asthma, IgE level

Procedia PDF Downloads 212

Authors: Amna Tariq Shah

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Amid the pandemic, the contemporary landscape has experienced accelerated growth in small business activities and an expanding digital marketplace, further exacerbating the issue of non-compliance among self-employed individuals through aggressive tax planning and evasion. This research seeks to address these challenges by developing strategic tax policies that promote voluntary compliance and improve taxpayer facilitation. The study employs the innovative MINDSPACE framework to examine three psychosocial factors—tax communication, tax literacy, and shaming—to optimize policy responses, address administrative shortcomings, and ensure adequate revenue collection for public goods and services. Preliminary findings suggest that incomprehensible communication from tax authorities drives individuals to seek alternative, potentially biased sources of tax information, thereby exacerbating non-compliance. Furthermore, the study reveals low tax literacy among Australian and Pakistani respondents, with many struggling to navigate complex tax processes and comprehend tax laws. Consequently, policy recommendations include simplifying tax return filing and enhancing pre-populated tax returns. In terms of shaming, the research indicates that Australians, being an individualistic society, may not respond well to shaming techniques due to privacy concerns. In contrast, Pakistanis, as a collectivistic society, may be more receptive to naming and shaming approaches. The study employs a mixed-method approach, utilizing interviews and surveys to analyze the issue in both jurisdictions. The use of mixed methods allows for a more comprehensive understanding of tax compliance behavior, combining the depth of qualitative insights with the generalizability of quantitative data, ultimately leading to more robust and well-informed policy recommendations. By examining evidence from opposite jurisdictions, namely a developed country (Australia) and a developing country (Pakistan), the study's applicability is enhanced, providing perspectives from two disparate contexts that offer insights from opposite ends of the economic, cultural, and social spectra. The non-comparative case study methodology offers valuable insights into human behavior, which can be applied to other jurisdictions as well. The application of the MINDSPACE framework in this research is particularly significant, as it introduces a novel approach to tax compliance behavior analysis. By integrating insights from behavioral economics, the framework enables a comprehensive understanding of the psychological and social factors influencing taxpayer decision-making, facilitating the development of targeted and effective policy interventions. This research carries substantial importance as it addresses critical challenges in tax compliance and administration, with far-reaching implications for revenue collection and the provision of public goods and services. By investigating the psychosocial factors that influence taxpayer behavior and utilizing the MINDSPACE framework, the study contributes invaluable insights to the field of tax policy. These insights can inform policymakers and tax administrators in developing more effective tax policies that enhance taxpayer facilitation, address administrative obstacles, promote a more equitable and efficient tax system, and foster voluntary compliance, ultimately strengthening the financial foundation of governments and communities.

Keywords: individual tax compliance behavior, psychosocial factors, tax non-compliance, tax policy

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Authors: Brooklyn Rushton, Michelle Rutty, Natalie Knowles, Daniel Scott

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As people are increasingly on the search for extraordinary experiences and connections with nature, adventure tourism is experiencing significant growth and providing tourists with life-changing experiences. Unlike built attraction-based tourism, adventure tourism relies entirely on natural heritage, which leaves communities dependent on adventure tourism extremely vulnerable to environmental and climatic changes. A growing body of evidence suggests that global climate change will influence the future of adventure tourism and mountain outdoor recreation opportunities on a global scale. Across Canada, more specifically, climate change is broadly anticipated to present risks for winter-snow sports, while opportunities are anticipated to arise for green season activities. These broad seasonal shifts do not account for the indirect impacts of climate change on adventure tourism, such as the cost of adaptation or the increase of natural hazards and the associated likelihood of accidents. While some research has examined the impact of climate change on natural environments that adventure tourism relies on, a very small body of research has specifically focused on guides’ perspectives or included hard adventure tourism activities. The guiding industry is unique, as guides are trained through an elegant blend of art and science to make decisions based on experience, observation, and intuition. While quantitative research can monitor change in natural environments, guides local knowledge can provide eye-witness accounts and outline what environmental changes mean for the future sustainability of adventure tourism. This research will capture the extensive knowledge of mountain guides to better understand the implications of climate change for mountain adventure and potential adaptive responses for the adventure tourism industry. This study uses a structured online survey with open and close-ended questions that will be administered using Qualtrics (an online survey platform). This survey is disseminated to current members of the Association of Canadian Mountain Guides (ACMG). Participation in this study will be exclusive to members of the ACMG operating in the outdoor guiding streams. The 25 survey questions are organized into four sections: demographic and professional operation (9 questions), physical change (4 questions), climate change perception (6 questions), and climate change adaptation (6 questions). How mountain guides perceive and respond to climate change is important knowledge for the future of the expanding adventure tourism industry. Results from this study are expected to provide important information to mountain destinations on climate change vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Expected results of this study include guides insight into: (1) experience-safety relevant observed physical changes in guided regions (i.e. glacial coverage, permafrost coverage, precipitation, temperature, and slope instability) (2) changes in hazards within the guiding environment (i.e. avalanches, rockfall, icefall, forest fires, flooding, and extreme weather events), (3) existing and potential adaptation strategies, and (4) key information and other barriers for adaptation. By gaining insight from the knowledge of mountain guides, this research can help the tourism industry at large understand climate risk and create adaptation strategies to ensure the resiliency of the adventure tourism industry.

Keywords: adventure tourism, climate change, environmental change, mountain hazards

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Authors: Eva Masson, Andrea Kübler

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Anxiety disorders (AD) are the most prevalent psychological disorders. However, far from most affected individuals are diagnosed and receive treatment. This gap is probably due to the diagnosis criteria, relying on symptoms (according to the DSM-5 definition) with no objective biomarker. Approach-avoidance conflict tasks are one common approach to simulate such disorders in a lab setting, with most of the paradigms focusing on the relationships between behavior and neurophysiology. Approach-avoidance conflict tasks typically place participants in a situation where they have to make a decision that leads to both positive and negative outcomes, thereby sending conflicting signals that trigger the Behavioral Inhibition System (BIS). Furthermore, behavioral validation of such paradigms adds credibility to the tasks – with overt conflict behavior, it is safer to assume that the task actually induced a conflict. Some of those tasks have linked asymmetrical frontal brain activity to induced conflicts and the BIS. However, there is currently no consensus for the direction of the frontal activation. The authors present here a modified version of the T-Maze paradigm, a motivational conflict desktop task, in which behavior is recorded simultaneously to the recording of high-density EEG (HD-EEG). Methods: In this within-subject design, HD-EEG and behavior of 35 healthy participants was recorded. EEG data was collected with a 128 channels sponge-based system. The motivational conflict desktop task consisted of three blocks of repeated trials. Each block was designed to record a slightly different behavioral pattern, to increase the chances of eliciting conflict. This variety of behavioral patterns was however similar enough to allow comparison of the number of trials categorized as ‘overt conflict’ between the blocks. Results: Overt conflict behavior was exhibited in all blocks, but always for under 10% of the trials, in average, in each block. However, changing the order of the paradigms successfully introduced a ‘reset’ of the conflict process, therefore providing more trials for analysis. As for the EEG correlates, the authors expect a different pattern for trials categorized as conflict, compared to the other ones. More specifically, we expect an elevated alpha frequency power in the left frontal electrodes at around 200ms post-cueing, compared to the right one (relative higher right frontal activity), followed by an inversion around 600ms later. Conclusion: With this comprehensive approach of a psychological mechanism, new evidence would be brought to the frontal asymmetry discussion, and its relationship with the BIS. Furthermore, with the present task focusing on a very particular type of motivational approach-avoidance conflict, it would open the door to further variations of the paradigm to introduce different kinds of conflicts involved in AD. Even though its application as a potential biomarker sounds difficult, because of the individual reliability of both the task and peak frequency in the alpha range, we hope to open the discussion for task robustness for neuromodulation and neurofeedback future applications.

Keywords: anxiety, approach-avoidance conflict, behavioral inhibition system, EEG

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Authors: Petnamnueng Dettipponpong, Shuen E. Chen

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Heat stress is known to have negative effects on reproductive functions, such as follicular development and ovulation. This study aimed to investigate the specific effects of heat stress on steroid hormone secretion of ovarian follicle cells, particularly in relation to the expression of Apolipoprotein B (ApoB) and microsomal triglyceride transfer protein (MTP). The aim of the study was to understand the impact of heat stress on steroid hormone secretion in ovarian follicle cells and to explore the role of ApoB and MTP in this process. Primary granulosa and theca cells were collected from follicles and cultured under heat stress conditions (42 °C) for various time periods. Controls were maintained under normal conditions (37.5 °C ). The culture medium was collected at different time points to measure levels of progesterone and estradiol using ELISA kits. ApoB and MTP expression levels were analyzed using homemade antibodies and western blot. Data were assessed by a one-way ANOVA comparison test with Duncan’s new multiple-range test. Results were expressed as mean±S.E. Difference was considered significant at P<0.05. The results showed that heat stress significantly increased progesterone secretion in granulosa cells, with the peak observed after 13 hours of recovery under thermoneutral conditions. Estradiol secretion by theca cells was not affected. Heat stress also had a significant negative effect on granulosa cell viability. Additionally, the expression of ApoB and MTP was found to be differentially regulated by heat stress. ApoB expression in theca cells was transiently promoted, while ApoB expression in granulosa cells was consistently suppressed. MTP expression increased after 5 hours of recovery in both cell types. These findings suggest a mechanism by which chicken follicle cells export cellular lipids as very low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) in response to thermal stress. These contribute to our understanding of the role of ApoB and MTP steroidogenesis and lipid metabolism under heat stress conditions. The study involved the collection of primary granulosa and theca cells, culture under different temperature conditions, and analysis of the culture medium for hormone levels using ELISA kits. ApoB and MTP expression levels were assessed using homemade antibodies and western blot. This study aimed to address the effects of heat stress on steroid hormone secretion in ovarian follicle cells, as well as the role of ApoB and MTP in this process. The study demonstrates that heat stress stimulates steroidogenesis in granulosa cells, affecting progesterone secretion. ApoB and MTP expression were found to be differentially regulated by heat stress, indicating a potential mechanism for the export of cellular lipids in response to thermal stress.

Keywords: heat stress, granulosa cells, theca cells, steroidogenesis, chicken, apolipoprotein B, microsomal triglyceride transfer protein

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Authors: Thanthrige Thiunuwan Priyathilaka, Don Anushka Sandaruwan Elvitigala, Bong-Soo Lim, Hyung-Bok Jeong, Jehee Lee

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Toll like receptors (TLRs) are a phylogeneticaly conserved family of pattern recognition receptors, which participates in the host immune responses against various pathogens and pathogen derived mitogen. TLR21, a non-mammalian type, is almost restricted to the fish species even though those can be identified rarely in avians and amphibians. Herein, this study was carried out to identify and characterize TLR21 from rock bream (Oplegnathus fasciatus) designated as RbTLR21, at transcriptional and genomic level. In this study, the full length cDNA and genomic sequence of RbTLR21 was identified using previously constructed cDNA sequence database and BAC library, respectively. Identified RbTLR21 sequence was characterized using several bioinformatics tools. The quantitative real time PCR (qPCR) experiment was conducted to determine tissue specific expressional distribution of RbTLR21. Further, transcriptional modulation of RbTLR21 upon the stimulation with Streptococcus iniae (S. iniae), rock bream iridovirus (RBIV) and Edwardsiella tarda (E. tarda) was analyzed in spleen tissues. The complete coding sequence of RbTLR21 was 2919 bp in length which can encode a protein consisting of 973 amino acid residues with molecular mass of 112 kDa and theoretical isoelectric point of 8.6. The anticipated protein sequence resembled a typical TLR domain architecture including C-terminal ectodomain with 16 leucine rich repeats, a transmembrane domain, cytoplasmic TIR domain and signal peptide with 23 amino acid residues. Moreover, protein folding pattern prediction of RbTLR21 exhibited well-structured and folded ectodomain, transmembrane domain and cytoplasmc TIR domain. According to the pair wise sequence analysis data, RbTLR21 showed closest homology with orange-spotted grouper (Epinephelus coioides) TLR21with 76.9% amino acid identity. Furthermore, our phylogenetic analysis revealed that RbTLR21 shows a close evolutionary relationship with its ortholog from Danio rerio. Genomic structure of RbTLR21 consisted of single exon similar to its ortholog of zebra fish. Sevaral putative transcription factor binding sites were also identified in 5ʹ flanking region of RbTLR21. The RBTLR 21 was ubiquitously expressed in all the tissues we tested. Relatively, high expression levels were found in spleen, liver and blood tissues. Upon induction with rock bream iridovirus, RbTLR21 expression was upregulated at the early phase of post induction period even though RbTLR21 expression level was fluctuated at the latter phase of post induction period. Post Edwardsiella tarda injection, RbTLR transcripts were upregulated throughout the experiment. Similarly, Streptococcus iniae induction exhibited significant upregulations of RbTLR21 mRNA expression in the spleen tissues. Collectively, our findings suggest that RbTLR21 is indeed a homolog of TLR21 family members and RbTLR21 may be involved in host immune responses against bacterial and DNA viral infections.

Keywords: rock bream, toll like receptor 21 (TLR21), pattern recognition receptor, genomic characterization

Procedia PDF Downloads 543

Authors: Fatemeh Faramarzi, Hosein Mahjoob

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Building dams on rivers for utilization of water resources causes problems in hydrodynamic equilibrium and results in leaving all or part of the sediments carried by water in dam reservoir. This phenomenon has also significant impacts on water and sediment flow regime and in the long term can cause morphological changes in the environment surrounding the river, reducing the useful life of the reservoir which threatens sustainable development through inefficient management of water resources. In the past, empirical methods were used to predict the sedimentation amount in dam reservoirs and to estimate its efficient lifetime. But recently the mathematical and computational models are widely used in sedimentation studies in dam reservoirs as a suitable tool. These models usually solve the equations using finite element method. This study compares the results from tow software packages, GSTARS4 & HEC-6, in the prediction of the sedimentation amount in Dez dam, southern Iran. The model provides a one-dimensional, steady-state simulation of sediment deposition and erosion by solving the equations of momentum, flow and sediment continuity and sediment transport. GSTARS4 (Generalized Sediment Transport Model for Alluvial River Simulation) which is based on a one-dimensional mathematical model that simulates bed changes in both longitudinal and transverse directions by using flow tubes in a quasi-two-dimensional scheme to calibrate a period of 47 years and forecast the next 47 years of sedimentation in Dez Dam, Southern Iran. This dam is among the highest dams all over the world (with its 203 m height), and irrigates more than 125000 square hectares of downstream lands and plays a major role in flood control in the region. The input data including geometry, hydraulic and sedimentary data, starts from 1955 to 2003 on a daily basis. To predict future river discharge, in this research, the time series data were assumed to be repeated after 47 years. Finally, the obtained result was very satisfactory in the delta region so that the output from GSTARS4 was almost identical to the hydrographic profile in 2003. In the Dez dam due to the long (65 km) and a large tank, the vertical currents are dominant causing the calculations by the above-mentioned method to be inaccurate. To solve this problem, we used the empirical reduction method to calculate the sedimentation in the downstream area which led to very good answers. Thus, we demonstrated that by combining these two methods a very suitable model for sedimentation in Dez dam for the study period can be obtained. The present study demonstrated successfully that the outputs of both methods are the same.

Keywords: Dez Dam, prediction, sedimentation, water resources, computational models, finite element method, GSTARS4, HEC-6

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Authors: M. Tammaro, S. Manzo, J. Rimauro, A. Salluzzo, S. Schiavo

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The solar photovoltaic (PV) modules are considered to have a negligible environmental impact compared to the fossil energy. Therefore also the waste management and the corresponding potential environmental hazard needs to be considered. The case of the photovoltaic panel is unique because the time lag from the manufacturing to the decommissioning as waste usually takes 25-30 years. Then the environmental hazard associated with end life of PV panels has been largely related to their metal contents. The principal concern regards the presence of heavy metals as Cd in thin film (TF) modules or Pb and Cr in crystalline silicon (c-Si) panels. At the end of life of PV panels, these dangerous substances could be released in the environment, if special requirements for their disposal are not adopted. Nevertheless, in literature, only a few experimental study about metal emissions from silicon crystalline/thin film panels and the corresponding environmental effect are present. As part of a study funded by the Italian national consortium for the waste collection and recycling (COBAT), the present work was aimed to analyze experimentally the potential release into the environment of hazardous elements, particularly metals, from PV waste. In this paper, for the first time, eighteen releasable metals a large number of photovoltaic panels, by c-Si and TF, manufactured in the last 30 years, together with the environmental effects by a battery of ecotoxicological tests, were investigated. Leaching tests are conducted on the crushed samples of PV module. The test is conducted according to Italian and European Standard procedure for hazard assessment of the granular waste and of the sludge. The sample material is shaken for 24 hours in HDPE bottles with an overhead mixer Rotax 6.8 VELP at indoor temperature and using pure water (18 MΩ resistivity) as leaching solution. The liquid-to-solid ratio was 10 (L/S=10, i.e. 10 liters of water per kg of solid). The ecotoxicological tests were performed in the subsequent 24 hours. A battery of toxicity test with bacteria (Vibrio fisheri), algae (Pseudochirneriella subcapitata) and crustacea (Daphnia magna) was carried out on PV panel leachates obtained as previously described and immediately stored in dark and at 4°C until testing (in the next 24 hours). For understand the actual pollution load, a comparison with the current European and Italian benchmark limits was performed. The trend of leachable metal amount from panels in relation to manufacturing years was then highlighted in order to assess the environmental sustainability of PV technology over time. The experimental results were very heterogeneous and show that the photovoltaic panels could represent an environmental hazard. The experimental results showed that the amounts of some hazardous metals (Pb, Cr, Cd, Ni), for c-Si and TF, exceed the law limits and they are a clear indication of the potential environmental risk of photovoltaic panels "as a waste" without a proper management.

Keywords: photovoltaic panel, environment, ecotoxicity, metals emission

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: Eduardo Cabrera-Rode, Janet Rodriguez, Aimee Alvarez, Ragmila Echevarria, Antonio D. Reyes, Ileana Cubas-Duenas, Silvia E. Turcios, Oscar Diaz-Diaz

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Obex is a nutritional supplement to help weight loss naturally. In addition, this supplement has a satiating effect that helps control the craving to eat between meals. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of Obex in the metabolic syndrome (MS). This was an open label pilot study conducted in 30 patients with MS and ages between 29 and 60 years old. Participants received Obex, at a dose of one sachet before (30 to 45 minutes) the two main meals (lunch and dinner) daily (mean two sachets per day) for 3 months. The content of the sachets was dissolved in a glass of water or fruit juice. Obex ingredients: Açai (Euterpe oleracea Mart.) berry, inulin, Phaseolus vulgaris, Caralluma fimbriata, inositol, choline, arginine, ornitine, zinc sulfate, carnitine fumarate, methionine, calcium pantothenate, pyridoxine and folic acid. In addition to anthropometric measures and blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, total cholesterol, triglycerides and HDL-cholesterol and insulin were determined. Insulin resistance was assessed by HOMA-IR index. Three indirect indexes were used to calculate insulin sensitivity [QUICKI index (Quantitative insulin sensitivity check index), Bennett index and Raynaud index]. Metabolic syndrome was defined according to the Joint Interim Statement (JIS) criteria. The JIS criteria require at least three of the following components: (1) abdominal obesity (waist circumference major or equal major or equal 94 cm for men or 80 cm for women), (2) triglycerides major or equal 1.7 mmol/L, (3) HDL cholesterol minor 1.03 mmol/L for men or minor 1.30 mmol/L for women, (4) systolic/diastolic blood pressure major or equal 130/85mmHg or use antihypertensive drugs, and (5) fasting plasma glucose major or equal 5.6 mmol/L or known treatment for diabetes. This study was approved by the Ethical and Research Committee of the National Institute of Endocrinology, Cuba and conducted according to the Declaration of Helsinki. Obex is registered as a food supplement in the National Institute of Nutrition and Food, Havana, Cuba. Written consent was obtained from all patients before the study. The clinical trial had been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov. After three months of treatment, 43.3% (13/30) of participants decreased the frequency of MS. Compared to baseline, Obex significantly reduced body weight, BMI, waist circumference, and waist/hip ratio and improved HDL-c (p<0.0001) and in addition to lowering blood pressure (p<0.05). After Obex intake, subjects also have shown a reduction in fasting plasma glucose (p<0.0001) and insulin sensitivity was enhanced (p=0.001). No adverse effects were seen in any of the participants during the study. In this pilot study, consumption of Obex decreased the prevalence of MS due to the improved selected components of the metabolic syndrome, indicating that further studies are warranted. Obex emerges as an effective and well tolerated treatment for preventing or delaying MS and therefore potential reduction of cardiovascular risk.

Keywords: nutritional supplement, metabolic syndrome, weight loss, insulin resistance

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Authors: Gadanya, A.M., Ponfa, S., Jibril, M.M., Abubakar, S. M.

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Background: Edible insects such as grasshopper are important sources of food for humans, and have been consumed as traditional foods by many indigenous communities especially in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. These communities have developed their skills and techniques in harvesting, preparing, consuming, and preserving edible insects, widely contributing to the role played by the use of insects in human nutrition. Aim/ objective: This study was aimed at determining the effect of insect enriched sprouted soyabean /millet based food on some gut health markers in albino rats. Methods. Four different formulations of Complementary foods (i.e Complementary Food B (CFB): sprouted millet (SM), Complementary Food C (CFC): sprouted soyabean (SSB), Complementary Food D (CFD): sprouted soybean and millet (SSBM) in a ratio of (50:50) and Complementary Food E (CFE): insect (grasshopper) enriched sprouted soybean and millet (SSBMI) in a ratio of (50:25:25)) were prepared. Proximate composition and short chain fatty acid contents were determined. Thirty albino rats were divided into5 groups of six rats each. Group 1(CDA) were fed with basal diet and served as a control group, while groups 2,3,4 and 5 were fed with the corresponding complimentary foods CFB, CFC, CFD and CFE respectively daily for four weeks. Concentrations of fecal protein, serum total carotenoids and nitric oxide were determined. DNA extraction for molecular isolation and characterization were carried out followed by PCR, the use of mega 11 software and NCBI blast for construction of the phylogenetic tree and organism identification respectively. Results: Significant increase (P<0.05) in percentage ash, fat, protein and moisture contents, as well as short chain fatty acid (acetate, butyrate and propionate) concentrations were recorded in the insect enriched sprouted composite food (CFE) when compared with the CFA, CFB, CFC and CFD composite food. Faecal protein, carotenoid and nitric oxide concentrations were significantly lower (P>0.05) in group 5 in comparison to groups 1to 4. Ruminococcus bromii and Bacteroidetes were molecularly isolated and characterized by 16s rRNA from the sprouted millet/sprouted soybean and the insect enriched sprouted soybean/sprouted millet based food respectively. The presence of these bacterial strains in the feaces of the treated rats is an indication that the gut of the treated rats is colonized by good gut bacteria, hence, an improved gut health. Conclusion: Insect enriched sprouted soya bean/sprouted millet based complementary diet showed a high composition of ash, fat, protein and fiber. Thus, could increase the availability of short chain fatty acids whose role to the host organism cannot be overemphasized. It was also found to have decrease the level of faecal protein, carotenoid and nitric oxide in the serum which is an indication of an improvement in the immune system function.

Keywords: gut-health, insect, millet, soybean, sprouted

Procedia PDF Downloads 72

Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

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Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 311