Search results for: predicting judgements

Authors: Ismail Bile Hassan, Masrah Azrifah Azmi Murad

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This study discovers a novel framework of individual level technology adoption known as I-P (Individual- Privacy) towards Smart National Identity Card health information application. Many countries introduced smart national identity card (SNIC) with various applications such as health information application embedded inside it. However, the degree to which citizens accept and use some of the embedded applications in smart national identity remains unknown to many governments and application providers as well. Moreover, the previous studies revealed that the factors of trust, perceived risk, privacy concern and perceived credibility need to be incorporated into more comprehensive models such as extended Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology known as UTAUT2. UTAUT2 is a mainly widespread and leading theory existing in the information system literature up to now. This research identifies factors affecting the citizens’ behavioural intention to use health information application embedded in SNIC and extends better understanding on the relevant factors that the government and the application providers would need to consider in predicting citizens’ new technology acceptance in the future. We propose a conceptual framework by combining the UTAUT2 and Privacy Calculus Model constructs and also adding perceived credibility as a new variable. The proposed framework may provide assistance to any government planning, decision, and policy makers involving e-government projects. The empirical study may be conducted in the future to provide proof and empirically validate this I-P framework.

Keywords: unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT) model, UTAUT2 model, smart national identity card (SNIC), health information application, privacy calculus model (PCM)

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Authors: M. Gil, R. Montalvo

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Business Intelligence (BI) has become a major source of competitive advantages for firms around the world. BI has been defined as the process of data visualization and reporting for understanding what happened and what is happening. Moreover, BI has been studied for its predictive capabilities in the context of trade and financial transactions. The current literature has identified that BI permits managers to identify market trends, understand customer relations, and predict demand for their products and services. This last capability of BI has been of special concern to academics. Specifically, due to its power to build predictive models adaptable to specific time horizons and geographical regions. However, the current literature of BI focuses on predicting specific markets and industries because the impact of such predictive models was relevant to specific industries or organizations. Currently, the existing literature has not developed a predictive model of BI that takes into consideration the whole economy of a geographical area. This paper seeks to create a predictive model of BI that would show the bigger picture of a geographical area. This paper uses a data set from the Secretary of Economic Development of the state of Jalisco, Mexico. Such data set includes data from all the commercial transactions that occurred in the state in the last years. By analyzing such data set, it will be possible to generate a BI model that predicts supply and demand from specific industries around the state of Jalisco. This research has at least three contributions. Firstly, a methodological contribution to the BI literature by generating the predictive supply and demand model. Secondly, a theoretical contribution to BI current understanding. The model presented in this paper incorporates the whole picture of the economic field instead of focusing on a specific industry. Lastly, a practical contribution might be relevant to local governments that seek to improve their economic performance by implementing BI in their policy planning.

Keywords: business intelligence, predictive model, supply and demand, Mexico

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Authors: Lola T. Alimkhodjaeva, Lola T. Zakirova, Soniya S. Ziyavidenova

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Background: Breast cancer occupies the first place among the cancer in women in the world. It is urgent today to study the role of molecular markers which are capable of predicting the dynamics and outcome of the disease. The aim of this study is to define the prognostic value of the content of estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PgR), and amplification of HER-2 / neu oncoprotein by studying 3 and 5-year overall and relapse-free survival in 470 patients with primary operable and 280 patients with locally–advanced breast cancer. Materials and methods: Study results of 3 and 5-year overall and relapse-free survival, depending on the content of RE, PgR in primary operable patients showed that ER positive (+) and PgR (+) survival was 100 (96.2%) and 97.3 (94.6%), for ER negative (-) and PgR (-) - 69.2 (60.3%) and 65.4 (57.7%), for ER positive (+) and negative PgR (-) 87.4 (80.1%) and 81.5 (79.3%), for ER negative (-) and positive PgR (+) - 97.4 (93.4%) and 90.4 (88.5%), respectively. Survival results depended also on the level of HER-2 / neu expression. In patients with HER-2 / neu negative the survival rates were as follows: 98.6 (94.7%) and 96.2 (92.3%). In group of patients with the level of HER-2 / neu (2+) expression these figures were: 45.3 (44.3%) and 45.1 (40.2%), and in group of patients with the level of HER-2 / neu (3+) expression - 41.2 (33.1%) and 34.3 (29.4%). The combination of ER negative (-), PgR (-), HER-2 / neu (-) they were 27.2 (25.4%) and 19.5 (15.3%), respectively. In patients with locally-advanced breast cancer the results of 3 and 5-year OS and RFS for ER (+) and PgR (+) were 76.3 (69.3%) and 62.2 (61.4%), for ER (-) and RP (-) 29.1 (23.7%) and 18.3 (12.6%), for ER (+) and PgR (-) 61.2 (47.2%) and 39.4 (25.6%), for ER (-) and PgR (+) 54.3 (43.1%) and 41.3 (18.3%), respectively. The level of HER-2 / neu expression also affected the survival results. Therefore, in HER-2/ neu negative patients the survival rate was 74.1 (67.6%) and 65.1 (57.3%), with the level of expression (2+) 20.4 (14.2%) and 8.6 (6.4%), with the level of expression (3+) 6.2 (3.1%) and 1.2 (1.5%), respectively. The combination for ER, PgR, HER-2 / neu negative was 22.1 (14.3%) and 8.4 (1.2%). Conclusion: Thus, the presence of steroid hormone receptors in breast tumor tissues at primary operable and locally- advanced process as the lack of HER-2/neu oncoprotein correlates with the highest rates of 3- and 5-year overall and relapse-free survival. The absence of steroid hormone receptors as well as of HER-2/neu overexpression in malignant breast tissues significantly degrades the 3- and 5-year overall and relapse-free survival. Tumors with ER, PgR and HER-2/neu negative have the most unfavorable prognostics.

Keywords: breast cancer, estrogen receptor, oncoprotein, progesterone receptor

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Authors: Y. H. Mugahed Amran, Raizal S. M. Rashid, Farzad Hejazi, Nor Azizi Safiee, A. A. Abang Ali

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Experimental and analytical studies were accomplished to examine the structural behavior of precast foamed concrete sandwich panel (PFCSP) under vertical in-plane shear load. PFCSP full-scale specimens with total number of six were developed with varying heights to study an important parameter slenderness ratio (H/t). The production technique of PFCSP and the procedure of test setup were described. The results obtained from the experimental tests were analysed in the context of in-plane shear strength capacity, load-deflection profile, load-strain relationship, slenderness ratio, shear cracking patterns and mode of failure. Analytical study of finite element analysis was implemented and the theoretical calculations of the ultimate in-plane shear strengths using the adopted ACI318 equation for reinforced concrete wall were determined aimed at predicting the in-plane shear strength of PFCSP. The decrease in slenderness ratio from 24 to 14 showed an increase of 26.51% and 21.91% on the ultimate in-plane shear strength capacity as obtained experimentally and in FEA models, respectively. The experimental test results, FEA models data and theoretical calculation values were compared and provided a significant agreement with high degree of accuracy. Therefore, on the basis of the results obtained, PFCSP wall has the potential use as an alternative to the conventional load-bearing wall system.

Keywords: deflection curves, foamed concrete (FC), load-strain relationships, precast foamed concrete sandwich panel (PFCSP), slenderness ratio, vertical in-plane shear strength capacity

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Authors: M. Ezzat, Y. Zaghloul, T. Sorour, A. Hefny, M. Eid

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Ultimate capacity of large diameter bored piles is usually determined from pile loading tests as recommended by several international codes and foundation design standards. However, loading of this type of piles till achieving apparent failure is practically seldom. In this paper, numerical analyses are carried out to simulate load test of a large diameter bored pile performed at the location of Alzey highway bridge project (Germany). Test results of pile load settlement relationship till failure as well as results of the base and shaft resistances are available. Apparent failure was indicated in this test by the significant increase of the induced settlement during the last load increment applied on the pile head. Measurements of this pile load test are used to assess the quality of the numerical models investigated. Three different material soil models are implemented in the analyses: Mohr coulomb (MC), Soft soil (SS), and Modified Mohr coulomb (MMC). Very good agreement is obtained between the field measured settlement and the calculated settlement using the MMC model. Results of analysis showed also that the MMC constitutive model is superior to MC, and SS models in predicting the ultimate base and shaft resistances of the large diameter bored pile. After calibrating the numerical model, behavior of large diameter bored piles under axial loads is discussed and the formation of the plastic zone around the pile is explored. Results obtained showed that the plastic zone below the base of the pile at failure extended laterally to about four times the pile diameter and vertically to about three times the pile diameter.

Keywords: ultimate capacity, large diameter bored piles, plastic zone, failure, pile load test

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Authors: Machimontorn Promtong, Sherman C. P. Cheung, Guan H. Yeoh, Sara Vahaji, Jiyuan Tu

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The wide range of industrial applications involved with boiling flows promotes the necessity of establishing fundamental knowledge in boiling flow phenomena. For this purpose, a number of experimental and numerical researches have been performed to elucidate the underlying physics of this flow. In this paper, the improved wall boiling models, implemented on ANSYS CFX 14.5, were introduced to study subcooled boiling flow at elevated pressure. At the heated wall boundary, the Fractal model, Force balance approach and Mechanistic frequency model are given for predicting the nucleation site density, bubble departure diameter, and bubble departure frequency. The presented wall heat flux partitioning closures were modified to consider the influence of bubble sliding along the wall before the lift-off, which usually happens in the flow boiling. The simulation was performed based on the Two-fluid model, where the standard k-ω SST model was selected for turbulence modelling. Existing experimental data at around 5 bars were chosen to evaluate the accuracy of the presented mechanistic approach. The void fraction and Interfacial Area Concentration (IAC) are in good agreement with the experimental data. However, the predicted bubble velocity and Sauter Mean Diameter (SMD) are over-predicted. This over-prediction may be caused by consideration of only dispersed and spherical bubbles in the simulations. In the future work, the important physical mechanisms of bubbles, such as merging and shrinking during sliding on the heated wall will be incorporated into this mechanistic model to enhance its capability for a wider range of flow prediction.

Keywords: subcooled boiling flow, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), mechanistic approach, two-fluid model

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Authors: Elfatih M. Abdel-Rahman, Tobias Landmann, Richard Kyalo, George Ong’amo, Bruno Le Ru

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Maize (Zea mays L.) is a major staple food crop in Africa, particularly in the eastern region of the continent. The maize growing area in Africa spans over 25 million ha and 84% of rural households in Africa cultivate maize mainly as a means to generate food and income. Average maize yields in Sub Saharan Africa are 1.4 t/ha as compared to global average of 2.5–3.9 t/ha due to biotic and abiotic constraints. Amongst the biotic production constraints in Africa, stem borers are the most injurious. In East Africa, yield losses due to stem borers are currently estimated between 12% to 40% of the total production. The objective of the present study was therefore to predict stem borer larvae density in maize fields using RapidEye reflectance data and generalized linear models (GLMs). RapidEye images were captured for a test site in Kenya (Machakos) in January and in February 2015. Stem borer larva numbers were modeled using GLMs assuming Poisson (Po) and negative binomial (NB) distributions with error with log arithmetic link. Root mean square error (RMSE) and ratio prediction to deviation (RPD) statistics were employed to assess the models performance using a leave one-out cross-validation approach. Results showed that NB models outperformed Po ones in all study sites. RMSE and RPD ranged between 0.95 and 2.70, and between 2.39 and 6.81, respectively. Overall, all models performed similar when used the January and the February image data. We conclude that reflectance data from RapidEye data can be used to estimate stem borer larvae density. The developed models could to improve decision making regarding controlling maize stem borers using various integrated pest management (IPM) protocols.

Keywords: maize, stem borers, density, RapidEye, GLM

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Authors: Adrian Hang Yue Siu, Matthew Holyland, Sharon Carey, Daniel Steffens, Nabila Ansari, Cherry E. Koh

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Introduction: Peritoneal malignancies are challenging cancers to manage. While cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS and HIPEC) may offer a cure, it’s considered radical and morbid. Pre-emptive identification of deconditioned patients for optimization may mitigate the risks of surgery. However, the difficulty lies in the scarcity of validated predictive tools to identify high-risk patients. In recent times, there has been growing interest in sarcopenia, which can occur as a result of malnutrition and malignancies. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the utility of sarcopenia in predicting post-operative outcomes. Methods: A single quaternary-center retrospective study of CRS and HIPEC patients between 2017-2020 was conducted to determine the association between pre-operative sarcopenia and post-operative outcomes. Lumbar CT images were analyzed using Slice-o-matic® to measure sarcopenia. Results : Cohort (n=94) analysis found that 40% had sarcopenia, with a majority being female (53.2%) and a mean age of 55 years. Sarcopenia was statistically associated with decreased weight compared to non-sarcopenia patients, 72.7kg vs. 82.2kg (p=0.014) and shorter overall survival, 1.4 years vs. 2.1 years (p=0.032). Post-operatively, patients with sarcopenia experienced more post-operative complications (p=0.001). Conclusion: Complex procedures often require optimization to prevent complications and improve survival. While patient biomarkers – BMI and weight – are used for optimization, this research advocates for the identification of sarcopenia status for pre-operative planning. Sarcopenia may be an indicator of advanced disease requiring further treatment and is an emerging area of research. Larger studies are required to confirm these findings and to assess the reversibility of sarcopenia after surgery.

Keywords: sarcopaenia, cytoreductive surgery, hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy, surgical oncology

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Authors: Mohd Ritzman Abdul Karim, Zhaohui Huang

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A current focus in seismic engineering practice is the development of seismic design approach that focuses on the performance-based design. Performance-based design aims to design the structures to achieve specified performance based on the damage limit states. This damage limit is more restrictive limit than life safety and needs to be carefully estimated to avoid damage in piers due to failure in transverse reinforcement. In this paper, a different perspective of damage limit states has been explored by integrating two damage control material limit state, concrete and reinforcement by introduced parameters such as expected yield stress of transverse reinforcement where peak tension strain prior to bar buckling is introduced in a recent study. The different perspective of damage limit states with modified yield displacement and the modified plastic-hinge length is used in order to predict damage-control target displacement for reinforced concreate (RC) bridge pier. Three-dimensional (3D) finite element (FE) model has been developed for estimating damage target displacement to validate proposed damage limit states. The result from 3D FE analysis was validated with experimental study found in the literature. The validated model then was applied to predict the damage target displacement for RC bridge pier and to validate the proposed study. The tensile strain on reinforcement and compression on concrete were used to determine the predicted damage target displacement and compared with the proposed study. The result shows that the proposed damage limit states were efficient in predicting damage-control target displacement consistent with FE simulations.

Keywords: damage-control target displacement, damage limit states, reinforced concrete bridge pier, yield displacement

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Authors: S. Vignesh, N. Vishnu, S. Vigneshwaran, M. Vishnu Anand, Dinesh Kumar Babu, V. R. Sanal Kumar

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The study of the primary flow velocity and the self impinging secondary jet flow mixing is important from both the fundamental research and the application point of view. Real industrial configurations are more complex than simple shear layers present in idealized numerical thrust-vectoring models due to the presence of combustion, swirl and confinement. Predicting the flow features of self impinging secondary jets in a supersonic primary flow is complex owing to the fact that there are a large number of parameters involved. Earlier studies have been highlighted several key features of self impinging jets, but an extensive characterization in terms of jet interaction between supersonic flow and self impinging secondary sonic jets is still an active research topic. In this paper numerical studies have been carried out using a validated two-dimensional k-omega standard turbulence model for the design optimization of a thrust vector control system using shock induced self impinging secondary flow sonic jets using non-reacting flows. Efforts have been taken for examining the flow features of TVC system with various secondary jets at different divergent locations and jet impinging angles with the same inlet jet pressure and mass flow ratio. The results from the parametric studies reveal that in addition to the primary to the secondary mass flow ratio the characteristics of the self impinging secondary jets having bearing on an efficient thrust vectoring. We concluded that the self impinging secondary jet nozzles are better than single jet nozzle with the same secondary mass flow rate owing to the fact fixing of the self impinging secondary jet nozzles with proper jet angle could facilitate better thrust vectoring for any supersonic aerospace vehicle.

Keywords: fluidic thrust vectoring, rocket steering, supersonic to sonic jet interaction, TVC in aerospace vehicles

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Authors: Meng Qing Feng, Otsile Morake

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Background: Successful implementation of the COVID-19 vaccination ensures the prevention of virus infection. Postponement and refusal of the vaccination will threaten public health, which is now common among the general public across the world. In addition, an acceptance of the COVID-19 vaccine appears as a decisive factor in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. Purpose: This study's objective is to explore the factors influencing the public intention to be vaccinated (ITBV). Design/methodology/approach: The web-based survey included socio-demographics and questions related to the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and the health belief model (HBM). An online survey was administered using Google Form to collect data from participants of Botswana. The sample included 339 participants, half-half of the participants were female. Data analysis was run using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). Findings: The study results highlight that perceived severity, perceived barriers, health motivation, and attitude have a positive and significant effect on ITBV, while perceived susceptibility, benefits, subjective norms, and perceived behavior control do not affect ITBV. Among all of the predictors, perceived barriers have the most significant influence on ITBV. Conclusion: Theoretically, this research stated that both HBM and TPB are effective in predicting and explaining the general public ITBV. Practically, this study offers insights to the government and health departments to arrange and launch health awareness programs and provide a better guide to vaccination so that doubts about vaccine confidence and the level of uncertainty can be decreased.

Keywords: COVID-19, Omicron, intention to be COVID-19 vaccine, health behavior model, theory of planned behavior, Botswana

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Authors: Van-Thanh Ho, Jaiyoung Ryu

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In soft robotics, the optimization of fluid dynamics through pneumatic methods plays a pivotal role in enhancing operational efficiency and reducing energy loss. This is particularly crucial when replacing conventional techniques such as cable-driven electromechanical systems. The pneumatic model employed in this study represents a sophisticated framework designed to efficiently channel pressure from a high-pressure reservoir to various muscle locations on the robot's body. This intricate network involves a branching system of tubes. The study introduces a comprehensive pneumatic model, encompassing the components of a reservoir, tubes, and Pneumatically Actuated Muscles (PAM). The development of this model is rooted in the principles of shock tube theory. Notably, the study leverages experimental data to enhance the understanding of the interplay between the PAM structure and the surrounding fluid. This improved interactive approach involves the use of morphing motion, guided by a contraction function. The study's findings demonstrate a high degree of accuracy in predicting pressure distribution within the PAM. The model's predictive capabilities ensure that the error in comparison to experimental data remains below a threshold of 10%. Additionally, the research employs a machine learning model, specifically a surrogate model based on the Kriging method, to assess and quantify uncertainty factors related to the initial reservoir pressure and tube diameter. This comprehensive approach enhances our understanding of pneumatic soft robotics and its potential for improved operational efficiency.

Keywords: pneumatic artificial muscles, pressure drop, morhing motion, branched network, surrogate model

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Authors: Thilini Hathurusinghe, Uthpalie Siriwardhana, W. M. Ediri Arachchi, Ranga Thudugala, Indeewari Herath, Gayani Senanayake

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The foramen magnum is more prone to protect than other skeletal remains during high impact and severe disruptive injuries. Therefore, it is worthwhile to explore whether these measurements can be used to determine the human gender which is vital in forensic and anthropological studies. The idea was to find out the ability to use quantitative measurements of foramen magnum as an anatomical indicator for human gender estimation and to evaluate the gender-dependent variations of foramen magnum using quantitative measurements. Randomly selected 113 subjects who underwent CT head scans at Sri Jayawardhanapura General Hospital of Sri Lanka within a period of six months, were included in the study. The sample contained 58 males (48.76 ± 14.7 years old) and 55 females (47.04 ±15.9 years old). Maximum length of the foramen magnum (LFM), maximum width of the foramen magnum (WFM), minimum distance between occipital condyles (MnD) and maximum interior distance between occipital condyles (MxID) were measured. Further, AreaT and AreaR were also calculated. The gender was estimated using binomial logistic regression. The mean values of all explanatory variables (LFM, WFM, MnD, MxID, AreaT, and AreaR) were greater among male than female. All explanatory variables except MnD (p=0.669) were statistically significant (p < 0.05). Significant bivariate correlations were demonstrated by AreaT and AreaR with the explanatory variables. The results evidenced that WFM and MxID were the best measurements in predicting gender according to binomial logistic regression. The estimated model was: log (p/1-p) =10.391-0.136×MxID-0.231×WFM, where p is the probability of being a female. The classification accuracy given by the above model was 65.5%. The quantitative measurements of foramen magnum can be used as a reliable anatomical marker for human gender estimation in the Sri Lankan context.

Keywords: foramen magnum, forensic and anthropological studies, gender estimation, logistic regression

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Authors: R. Bakr, M. Elmeligy, A. Ibrahim

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When the building loads are relatively small, challenges are often facing the foundation design especially when inappropriate soil conditions exist. These may be represented in the existence of soft soil in the upper layers of soil while sandy soil or firm cohesive soil exist in the deeper layers. In such cases, the design becomes infeasible if the piles are extended to the deeper layers, especially when there are sandy layers existing at shallower depths underlain by stiff clayey soil. In this research, models of piles terminated in sand underlain by clay soils are numerically simulated by different modelling theories. Finite element software, Plaxis 3-D Foundation was used to evaluate the pile behavior under different loading scenarios. The standard static load test according to ASTM D-1143 was simulated and compared with the real-life loading scenario. The results showed that the pile behavior obtained from the current static load test do not realistically represent that obtained from real-life loading. Attempts were carried out to capture the proper numerical loading scenario that simulates the pile behavior in real-life loading including the long-term effect. A modified method based on this research findings is proposed for the static pile loading tests. Field loading tests were carried out to validate the new method. Results obtained from both numerical and field tests by using the modified method prove that this method is more accurate in predicting the pile behavior in sand soil underlain by clay more than the current standard static load.

Keywords: numerical simulation, static load test, pile behavior, sand underlain with clay, creep

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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In construction projects, predicting project performance metrics accurately is essential for effective management and successful delivery. However, conventional methods often depend on fixed baseline plans, disregarding the evolving nature of project progress and external influences. To address this issue, we introduce a distinct approach based on machine learning to forecast key performance indicators, such as cost variance and earned value, for each Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) category within an urban road reconstruction project. Our proposed model leverages time series forecasting techniques, namely Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, to predict future performance by analyzing historical data and project progress. Additionally, the model incorporates external factors, including weather patterns and resource availability, as features to improve forecast accuracy. By harnessing the predictive capabilities of machine learning, our performance forecasting model enables project managers to proactively identify potential deviations from the baseline plan and take timely corrective measures. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, we conduct a case study on an urban road reconstruction project, comparing the model's predictions with actual project performance data. The outcomes of this research contribute to the advancement of project management practices in the construction industry by providing a data-driven solution for enhancing project performance monitoring and control.

Keywords: project performance forecasting, machine learning, time series forecasting, cost variance, schedule variance, earned value management

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Authors: Masoud Ghaemi, Mohammadjafar Hedayati, Faezeh Yousefzadeh, Hoseinali Heydarzadeh

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Careful monitoring in the earth dams to measure deformation caused by settlement and movement has always been a concern for engineers in the field. In order to measure settlement and deformation of earth dams, usually, the precision instruments of settlement set and combined Inclinometer that is commonly referred to IS instrument will be used. In some dams, because the thickness of alluvium is high and there is no possibility of alluvium removal (technically and economically and in terms of performance), there is no possibility of placing the end of IS instrument (precision instruments of Inclinometer-settlement set) in the rock foundation. Inevitably, have to accept installing pipes in the weak and deformable alluvial foundation that leads to errors in the calculation of the actual settlement (absolute settlement) in different parts of the dam body. The purpose of this paper is to present new and refine criteria for predicting settlement and deformation in earth dams. The study is based on conditions in three dams with a deformation quite alluvial (Agh Chai, Narmashir and Gilan-e Gharb) to provide settlement criteria affected by the alluvial foundation. To achieve this goal, the settlement of dams was simulated by using the finite difference method with FLAC3D software, and then the modeling results were compared with the reading IS instrument. In the end, the caliber of the model and validate the results, by using regression analysis techniques and scrutinized modeling parameters with real situations and then by using MATLAB software and CURVE FITTING toolbox, new criteria for the settlement based on elasticity modulus, cohesion, friction angle, the density of earth dam and the alluvial foundation was obtained. The results of these studies show that, by using the new criteria measures, the amount of settlement and deformation for the dams with alluvial foundation can be corrected after instrument readings, and the error rate in reading IS instrument can be greatly reduced.

Keywords: earth-fill dam, foundation, settlement, finite difference, MATLAB, curve fitting

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Authors: Lubena Achmad, Herman Kristanto, Julian Dewantiningrum

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Background: The Bishop score is a standard method used to predict the success of induction. This examination tends to be subjective with high inter and intraobserver variability, so it was presumed to have a low predictive value in terms of the outcome of labor induction. Cervical length measurement using transvaginal ultrasound is considered to be more objective to assess the cervical length. Meanwhile, this examination is not a complicated procedure and less invasive than vaginal touché. Objective: To compare transvaginal ultrasound and Bishop score in predicting successful induction. Methods: This study was a prospective cohort study. One hundred and twenty women with singleton pregnancies undergoing induction of labor at 37 – 42 weeks and met inclusion and exclusion criteria were enrolled in this study. Cervical assessment by both transvaginal ultrasound and Bishop score were conducted prior induction. The success of labor induction was defined as an ability to achieve active phase ≤ 12 hours after induction. To figure out the best cut-off point of cervical length and Bishop score, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine which factors best-predicted induction success. Results: This study showed significant differences in terms of age, premature rupture of the membrane, the Bishop score, cervical length and funneling as significant predictors of successful induction. Using ROC curves found that the best cut-off point for prediction of successful induction was 25.45 mm for cervical length and 3 for Bishop score. Logistic regression was performed and showed only premature rupture of membranes and cervical length ≤ 25.45 that significantly predicted the success of labor induction. By excluding premature rupture of the membrane as the indication of induction, cervical length less than 25.3 mm was a better predictor of successful induction. Conclusion: Compared to Bishop score, cervical length using transvaginal ultrasound was a better predictor of successful induction.

Keywords: Bishop Score, cervical length, induction, successful induction, transvaginal sonography

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Authors: Abeer A. Aljohani

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COVID-19 virus spread has been one of the extreme pandemics across the globe. It is also referred to as coronavirus, which is a contagious disease that continuously mutates into numerous variants. Currently, the B.1.1.529 variant labeled as omicron is detected in South Africa. The huge spread of COVID-19 disease has affected several lives and has surged exceptional pressure on the healthcare systems worldwide. Also, everyday life and the global economy have been at stake. This research aims to predict COVID-19 disease in its initial stage to reduce the death count. Machine learning (ML) is nowadays used in almost every area. Numerous COVID-19 cases have produced a huge burden on the hospitals as well as health workers. To reduce this burden, this paper predicts COVID-19 disease is based on the symptoms and medical history of the patient. This research presents a unique architecture for COVID-19 detection using ML techniques integrated with feature dimensionality reduction. This paper uses a standard UCI dataset for predicting COVID-19 disease. This dataset comprises symptoms of 5434 patients. This paper also compares several supervised ML techniques to the presented architecture. The architecture has also utilized 10-fold cross validation process for generalization and the principal component analysis (PCA) technique for feature reduction. Standard parameters are used to evaluate the proposed architecture including F1-Score, precision, accuracy, recall, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and area under curve (AUC). The results depict that decision tree, random forest, and neural networks outperform all other state-of-the-art ML techniques. This achieved result can help effectively in identifying COVID-19 infection cases.

Keywords: supervised machine learning, COVID-19 prediction, healthcare analytics, random forest, neural network

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Authors: Syed Asif Hassan, Syed Atif Hassan

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Multidrug-resistant Tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is an infection caused by the resistant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis that do not respond either to isoniazid or rifampicin, which are the most important anti-TB drugs. The increase in the occurrence of a drug-resistance strain of MTB calls for an intensive search of novel target-based therapeutics. In this context LprG (Rv1411c) a lipoprotein from MTB plays a pivotal role in the immune evasion of Mtb leading to survival and propagation of the bacterium within the host cell. Therefore, a machine learning method will be developed for generating a computational model that could predict for a potential anti LprG activity of the novel antituberculosis compound. The present study will utilize dataset from PubChem database maintained by National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI). The dataset involves compounds screened against MTB were categorized as active and inactive based upon PubChem activity score. PowerMV, a molecular descriptor generator, and visualization tool will be used to generate the 2D molecular descriptors for the actives and inactive compounds present in the dataset. The 2D molecular descriptors generated from PowerMV will be used as features. We feed these features into three different classifiers, namely, random forest, a deep neural network, and a recurring neural network, to build separate predictive models and choosing the best performing model based on the accuracy of predicting novel antituberculosis compound with an anti LprG activity. Additionally, the efficacy of predicted active compounds will be screened using SMARTS filter to choose molecule with drug-like features.

Keywords: antituberculosis drug, classifier, machine learning, molecular descriptors, prediction

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Authors: Thomas A. Fuller

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Over the past fifteen years, virtual schooling has been introduced and implemented in varying degrees throughout the public education system in the United States. It is possible in some states for students to voluntarily take all of their course load online, without ever having to step in a classroom. Experts foresee a dramatic rise in the number of courses taken online by public school students in the United States, with some predicting that by 2019 as many as 50% of public high school courses will be delivered online. This electronic delivery of public education offers tremendous potential to the scientific community because it calls for innovation and is funded by public school revenue. Public accountability provides a ready supply of statistical data for measuring the progress of virtual schools as they are implemented into the public school arena. This allows for a survey of the current use of virtual schooling through examination of past statistical data, as well as forecasting forward for future years based upon this past data. Virtual schooling is on the rise in the United States, but its growth has been tempered by practical problems of implementation. The greatest and best use of virtual schooling thus far has been to supplement the courses offered by public schools (e.g., offering unique language courses, elective courses, and games-based math and science courses). The weaknesses of virtual schooling lay in the problematic accountability in allowing students to take courses online at home and the lack of supportive infrastructure in the public school arena. Virtual schooling holds great promise for the public school education system in the United States, as well as the scientific community. Online courses allow students access to a much greater catalog of courses than is offered through classroom instruction in their local public school. This promising sector needs assistance from the scientific community in implementing new pedagogical methodologies.

Keywords: virtual schools, online classroom, electronic delivery, technological innovation

Procedia PDF Downloads 362

Authors: Jacky Liu

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This paper develops a team sports outcome prediction system with potential for wide-ranging applications across various disciplines. Despite significant advancements in predictive analytics, existing studies in sports outcome predictions possess considerable limitations, including insufficient feature engineering and underutilization of advanced machine learning techniques, among others. To address these issues, we extend the Sports Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (SRP-CRISP-DM) framework and propose a unique, comprehensive predictive system, using National Basketball Association (NBA) data as an example to test this extended framework. Our approach follows a holistic methodology in feature engineering, employing both Time Series and Non-Time Series Data, as well as conducting Explanatory Data Analysis and Feature Selection. Furthermore, we contribute to the discourse on target variable choice in team sports outcome prediction, asserting that point spread prediction yields higher profits as opposed to game-winner predictions. Using machine learning algorithms, particularly XGBoost, results in a significant improvement in predictive accuracy of team sports outcomes. Applied to point spread betting strategies, it offers an astounding annual return of approximately 900% on an initial investment of $100. Our findings not only contribute to academic literature, but have critical practical implications for sports betting. Our study advances the understanding of team sports outcome prediction a burgeoning are in complex system predictions and pave the way for potential profitability and more informed decision making in sports betting markets.

Keywords: machine learning, team sports, game outcome prediction, sports betting, profits simulation

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Authors: Mehdi Habibagahi, Shami Nejadi, Ata Aminfar

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A significant degradation factor that impacts the durability of concrete structures is the alkali-silica reaction. Engineers are frequently charged with the challenges of conducting a thorough safety assessment of concrete structures that have been impacted by ASR. The alkali-silica reaction has a major influence on the structural capacities of structures. In most cases, the reduction in compressive strength, tensile strength, and modulus of elasticity is expressed as a function of free expansion and crack widths. Predicting the effect of ASR on flexural strength is also relevant. In this paper, a nonlinear three-dimensional (3D) finite-element model was proposed to describe the flexural strength degradation induced byASR.Initial strains, initial stresses, initial cracks, and deterioration of material characteristics were all considered ASR factors in this model. The effects of ASR on structural performance were evaluated by focusing on initial flexural stiffness, force–deformation curve, and load-carrying capacity. Degradation of concrete mechanical properties was correlated with ASR growth using material test data conducted at Tech Lab, UTS, and implemented into the FEM for various expansions. The finite element study revealed a better understanding of the ASR-affected RC beam's failure mechanism and capacity reduction as a function of ASR expansion. Furthermore, in this study, decreasing of the residual mechanical properties due to ASRisreviewed, using as input data for the FEM model. Finally, analysis techniques and a comparison of the analysis and the experiment results are discussed. Verification is also provided through analyses of reinforced concrete beams with behavior governed by either flexural or shear mechanisms.

Keywords: alkali-silica reaction, analysis, assessment, finite element, nonlinear analysis, reinforced concrete

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: Gerald Gwamba, Bo Zhou, Yajun Song, Dong Changyin

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The challenges that sand production presents to the oil and gas industry, particularly while working in poorly consolidated reservoirs, cannot be overstated. From restricting production to blocking production tubing, sand production increases the costs associated with production as it elevates the cost of servicing production equipment over time. Production in reservoirs that present with high viscosities, flow rate, cementation, clay content as well as fine sand contents is even more complex and challenging. As opposed to the one-factor at a-time testing, investigating the interactive effects arising from a combination of several factors offers increased reliability of results as well as representation of actual field conditions. It is thus paramount to investigate the conditions leading to the onset of sanding during production to ensure the future sustainability of hydrocarbon production operations under viscous conditions. We adopt the Design of Experiments (DOE) to analyse, using Taguchi factorial designs, the most significant interactive effects of sanding. We propose an optimized regression model to predict the drawdown time at sand production. The results obtained underscore that reservoirs characterized by varying (high and low) levels of viscosity, flow rate, cementation, clay, and fine sand content have a resulting impact on sand production. The only significant interactive effect recorded arises from the interaction between BD (fine sand content and flow rate), while the main effects included fluid viscosity and cementation, with percentage significances recorded as 31.3%, 37.76%, and 30.94%, respectively. The drawdown time model presented could be useful for predicting the time to reach the maximum drawdown pressure under viscous conditions during the onset of sand production.

Keywords: factorial designs, DOE optimization, sand production prediction, drawdown time, regression model

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Isaac Kofi Mensah

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The manual system of voting has been the most widely used system of electing representatives around the globe, particularly in Africa. Due to the known numerous problems and challenges associated with the manual system of voting, many countries are migrating to the electronic voting system as a suitable and credible means of electing representatives over the manual paper-based system. This research paper therefore investigated the factors influencing adoption and use of an electronic voting system in Ghana. A total of 400 Questionnaire Instruments (QI) were administered to potential respondents in Ghana, of which 387 responded representing a response rate of 96.75%. The Technology Acceptance Model was used as the theoretical framework for the study. The research model was tested using a simple linear regression analysis with SPSS. A little of over 71.1% of the respondents recommended the Electoral Commission (EC) of Ghana to adopt an electronic voting system in the conduct of public elections in Ghana. The results indicated that all the six predictors such as perceived usefulness (PU), perceived ease of use (PEOU), perceived free and fair elections (PFFF), perceived credible elections (PCE), perceived system integrity (PSI) and citizens trust in the election management body (CTEM) were all positively significant in predicting the readiness of citizens to adopt and use an electronic voting system in Ghana. However, jointly, the hypotheses tested revealed that apart from Perceived Free and Fair Elections and Perceived Credible and Transparent Elections, all the other factors such as PU, Perceived System Integrity and Security and Citizen Trust in the Election Management Body were found to be significant predictors of the Willingness of Ghanaians to use an electronic voting system. All the six factors considered in this study jointly account for about 53.1% of the reasons determining the readiness to adopt and use an electronic voting system in Ghana. The implications of this research finding on elections in Ghana are discussed.

Keywords: credible elections, Election Management Body (EMB), electronic voting, Ghana, Technology Acceptance Model (TAM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 373

Authors: Behzad Behnia, Noah LaRussa-Trott

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In recent years, fibers have been successfully used as an additive to reinforce asphalt concrete materials and to enhance the sustainability and resiliency of transportation infrastructure. Roads covered with fiber-reinforced asphalt concrete (FRAC) require less frequent maintenance and tend to have a longer lifespan. The present work investigates the application of sasobit-coated aramid fibers in asphalt pavements and employs machine learning to develop prediction models to evaluate the cracking performance of FRAC materials. For the experimental part of the study, the effects of several important parameters such as fiber content, fiber length, and testing temperature on fracture characteristics of FRAC mixtures were thoroughly investigated. Two mechanical performance tests, i.e., the disk-shaped compact tension [DC(T)] and indirect tensile [ID(T)] strength tests, as well as the non-destructive acoustic emission test, were utilized to experimentally measure the cracking behavior of the FRAC material in both macro and micro level, respectively. The experimental results were used to train the supervised machine learning approach in order to establish prediction models for fracture performance of the FRAC mixtures in the field. Experimental results demonstrated that adding fibers improved the overall fracture performance of asphalt concrete materials by increasing their fracture energy, tensile strength and lowering their 'embrittlement temperature'. FRAC mixtures containing long-size fibers exhibited better cracking performance than regular-size fiber mixtures. The developed prediction models of this study could be easily employed by pavement engineers in the assessment of the FRAC pavements.

Keywords: fiber reinforced asphalt concrete, machine learning, cracking performance tests, prediction model

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: Racha El Kadiri, Mohamed Sultan, Henrique Momm, Zachary Blair, Rachel Schultz, Tamer Al-Bayoumi

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The Mediterranean Basin is a very diverse region of nationalities and climate zones, with a strong dependence on agricultural activities. Predicting long term (with a lead of 1 to 12 months) rainfall, and future droughts could contribute in a sustainable management of water resources and economical activities. In this study, an integrated approach was adopted to construct predictive tools with lead times of 0 to 12 months to forecast rainfall amounts over nine subzones of the Mediterranean Basin region. The following steps were conducted: (1) acquire, assess and intercorrelate temporal remote sensing-based rainfall products (e.g. The CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation [CMAP]) throughout the investigation period (1979 to 2016), (2) acquire and assess monthly values for all of the climatic indices influencing the regional and global climatic patterns (e.g., Northern Atlantic Oscillation [NOI], Southern Oscillation Index [SOI], and Tropical North Atlantic Index [TNA]); (3) delineate homogenous climatic regions and select nine pilot study zones, (4) apply data mining methods (e.g. neural networks, principal component analyses) to extract relationships between the observed rainfall and the controlling factors (i.e. climatic indices with multiple lead-time periods) and (5) use the constructed predictive tools to forecast monthly rainfall and dry and wet periods. Preliminary results indicate that rainfall and dry/wet periods were successfully predicted with lead zones of 0 to 12 months using the adopted methodology, and that the approach is more accurately applicable in the southern Mediterranean region.

Keywords: rainfall, neural networks, climatic indices, Mediterranean

Procedia PDF Downloads 289

Authors: Hadjer Sadoune, Liza Lamini, Scherazade Krim, Amel Djouadi, Rachida Rihani

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Deep neural networks are highly regarded for their accuracy in predicting intricate fermentation processes. Their ability to learn from a large amount of datasets through artificial intelligence makes them particularly effective models. The primary obstacle in improving the performance of these models is to carefully choose the suitable hyperparameters, including the neural network architecture (number of hidden layers and hidden units), activation function, optimizer, learning rate, and other relevant factors. This study predicts biogas production from real wastewater treatment plant data using a sophisticated approach: hybrid Bayesian optimization with a tree-structured Parzen estimator (BO-TPE) for an optimised deep neural network (DNN) model. The plant utilizes an Upflow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket (UASB) digester that treats industrial wastewater from soft drinks and breweries. The digester has a working volume of 1574 m3 and a total volume of 1914 m3. Its internal diameter and height were 19 and 7.14 m, respectively. The data preprocessing was conducted with meticulous attention to preserving data quality while avoiding data reduction. Three normalization techniques were applied to the pre-processed data (MinMaxScaler, RobustScaler and StandardScaler) and compared with the Non-Normalized data. The RobustScaler approach has strong predictive ability for estimating the volume of biogas produced. The highest predicted biogas volume was 2236.105 Nm³/d, with coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE) values of 0.712, 164.610, and 223.429, respectively.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, biogas production, deep neural network, hybrid bo-tpe, hyperparameters tuning

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Authors: Nindyo Cahyo Kresnanto, Muhamad Willdan, Wika Harisa Putri

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Gunungkidul is one of the emerging tourism industry areas in Yogyakarta Province, Indonesia. This article describes how GIS can predict the development of tourism potential in Gunungkidul. The tourism sector in Gunungkidul Regency contributes 3.34% of the total gross regional domestic product and is the economic sector with the highest growth with a percentage of 18.37% in the post-Covid-19 period. This contribution makes researchers consider that several tourist sites need to be explored more to increase regional economic development gradually. This research starts by collecting spatial data from tourist locations tourists want to visit in Gunungkidul Regency based on survey data from 571 respondents. Then the data is visualized with ArcGIS software. This research shows an overview of tourist destinations interested in travellers depicted from the lowest to the highest from the data visualization. Based on the data visualization results, specific tourist locations potentially developed to influence the surrounding economy positively. The visualization of the data displayed is also in the form of a desire line map that shows tourist travel patterns from the origin of the tourist to the destination of the tourist location of interest. From the desire line, the prediction of the path of tourist sites with a high frequency of transportation activity can figure out. Predictions regarding specific tourist location routes that high transportation activities can burden can consider which routes will be chosen. The route also needs to be improved in terms of capacity and quality. The goal is to provide a sense of security and comfort for tourists who drive and positively impact the tourist sites traversed by the route.

Keywords: tourism development, GIS and survey, transportation, potential desire line

Procedia PDF Downloads 50

Authors: Dafna Knani, Sarit S. Sivan

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Aggrecan, one of the main components of the intervertebral disc (IVD), belongs to the family of proteoglycans (PGs) that are composed of glycosaminoglycan (GAG) chains covalently attached to a core protein. Its primary function is to maintain tissue hydration and hence disc height under the high loads imposed by muscle activity and body weight. Significant PG loss is one of the first indications of disc degeneration. A possible solution to recover disc functions is by injecting a synthetic hydrogel into the joint cavity, hence mimicking the role of PGs. One of the hydrogels proposed is GAG-analogues, based on sulfate-containing polymers, which are responsible for hydration in disc tissue. In the present work, we used molecular dynamics (MD) to study the effect of the hydrogel crosslinking (type and degree) on the swelling behavior of the suggested GAG-analogue biomimetics by calculation of cohesive energy density (CED), solubility parameter, enthalpy of mixing (ΔEmix) and the interactions between the molecules at the pure form and as a mixture with water. The simulation results showed that hydrophobicity plays an important role in the swelling of the hydrogel, as indicated by the linear correlation observed between solubility parameter values of the copolymers and crosslinker weight ratio (w/w); this correlation was found useful in predicting the amount of PEGDA needed for the desirable hydration behavior of (CS)₄-peptide. Enthalpy of mixing calculations showed that all the GAG analogs, (CS)₄ and (CS)₄-peptide are water-soluble; radial distribution function analysis revealed that they form interactions with water molecules, which is important for the hydration process. To conclude, our simulation results, beyond supporting the experimental data, can be used as a useful predictive tool in the future development of biomaterials, such as disc replacement.

Keywords: molecular dynamics, proteoglycans, enthalpy of mixing, swelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 52

Authors: Atefeh Abedini, Fatemeh Razavi, Mihan Pourabdollah Toutkaboni, Hossein Mehravaran, Arda Kiani

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In countries with the highest prevalence of tuberculosis, such as Iran, the differentiation of malignant tumors from non-malignant is very important. In this study, which was conducted for the first time among the Iranian population, the utility of the ultrasonographic morphological characteristics in patients undergoing EBUS was used to distinguish the non-malignant versus malignant lymph nodes. The morphological characteristics of lymph nodes, which consist of size, shape, vascular pattern, echogenicity, margin, coagulation necrosis sign, calcification, and central hilar structure, were obtained during Endobronchial Ultrasound-Guided Trans-Bronchial Needle Aspiration and were compared with the final pathology results. During this study period, a total of 253 lymph nodes were evaluated in 93 cases. Round shape, non-hilar vascular pattern, heterogeneous echogenicity, hyperechogenicity, distinct margin, and the presence of necrosis sign were significantly higher in malignant nodes. On the other hand, the presence of calcification and also central hilar structure were significantly higher in the benign nodes (p-value ˂ 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression showed that size>1 cm, heterogeneous echogenicity, hyperechogenicity, the presence of necrosis signs and, the absence of central hilar structure are independent predictive factors for malignancy. The accuracy of each of the aforementioned factors is 42.29 %, 71.54 %, 71.90 %, 73.51 %, and 65.61 %, respectively. Of 74 malignant lymph nodes, 100% had at least one of these independent factors. According to our results, the morphological characteristics of lymph nodes based on Endobronchial Ultrasound-Guided Trans-Bronchial Needle Aspiration can play a role in the prediction of malignancy.

Keywords: EBUS-TBNA, malignancy, nodal characteristics, pathology

Procedia PDF Downloads 116