Search results for: conditional proportional reversed hazard rate model

Authors: Shahid Hussain Abro, F. Mufadi, A. Boodi

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Microstructural study and phase transformation in steels is a basic and important step during the design of structural steel. There are huge efforts and study has been done so far on phase transformations, due to so many steel grades available commercially the phase development in steel has different consequences. In the present work an effort has been made to study the effect of heating rate on microstructural features of cold heading quality steel. The SEM, optical microscopy, and heat treatment techniques have been applied to observe the microstructural features in the experimental steel. It was observed that heating rate has the strong influence on phase transformation of CHQ steel under investigation. Heating rate increases the austenite formation kinetics with respect to holding time, and this austenite has been transformed to martensite upon cooling. Heating rate also plays a vital role on nucleation sites of austenite formation in the experimental steel.

Keywords: CHQ steel, austenite formation, heating rate, nucleation

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Authors: Hossain A., Chowdhury S. I.

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Introduction: The use of a gamma camera is a standard procedure in nuclear medicine facilities or hospitals to diagnose chronic kidney disease (CKD), but the gamma camera does not precisely stage the disease. The authors sought to determine whether they could use an artificial neural network to determine whether CKD was in normal or abnormal stages based on GFR values (ANN). Method: The 250 kidney patients (Training 188, Testing 62) who underwent an ultrasonography test to diagnose a renal test in our nuclear medical center were scanned using a gamma camera. Before the scanning procedure, the patients received an injection of ⁹⁹ᵐTc-DTPA. The gamma camera computes the pre- and post-syringe radioactive counts after the injection has been pushed into the patient's vein. The artificial neural network uses the softmax function with cross-entropy loss to determine whether CKD is normal or abnormal based on the GFR value in the output layer. Results: The proposed ANN model had a 99.20 % accuracy according to K-fold cross-validation. The sensitivity and specificity were 99.10 and 99.20 %, respectively. AUC was 0.994. Conclusion: The proposed model can distinguish between normal and abnormal stages of CKD by using an artificial neural network. The gamma camera could be upgraded to diagnose normal or abnormal stages of CKD with an appropriate GFR value following the clinical application of the proposed model.

Keywords: artificial neural network, glomerular filtration rate, stages of the kidney, gamma camera

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Authors: Jan Henrik Wosnitza

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The logistic regression has developed into a standard approach for estimating conditional probabilities in a wide range of applications including credit risk prediction. The article at hand contributes to the current literature on logistic regression fourfold: First, it is demonstrated that the binary logistic regression automatically meets its model assumptions under very general conditions. This result explains, at least in part, the logistic regression's popularity. Second, the requirement of homoscedasticity in the context of binary logistic regression is theoretically substantiated. The variances among the groups of defaulted and non-defaulted obligors have to be the same across the level of the aggregated default indicators in order to achieve linear logits. Third, this article sheds some light on the question why nonlinear logits might be superior to linear logits in case of a small amount of data. Fourth, an innovative methodology for estimating correlations between obligor-specific log-odds is proposed. In order to crystallize the key ideas, this paper focuses on the example of credit risk prediction. However, the results presented in this paper can easily be transferred to any other field of application.

Keywords: correlation, credit risk estimation, default correlation, homoscedasticity, logistic regression, nonlinear logistic regression

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Authors: Santosh Kumar Suman, Vinod Kumar Giri

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The goal of this paper is to outline a speed controller of a DC motor by choice of a PID parameters utilizing genetic algorithms (GAs), the DC motor is extensively utilized as a part of numerous applications such as steel plants, electric trains, cranes and a great deal more. DC motor could be represented by a nonlinear model when nonlinearities such as attractive dissemination are considered. To provide effective control, nonlinearities and uncertainties in the model must be taken into account in the control design. The DC motor is considered as third order system. Objective of this paper three type of tuning techniques for PID parameter. In this paper, an independently energized DC motor utilizing MATLAB displaying, has been outlined whose velocity might be examined utilizing the Proportional, Integral, Derivative (KP, KI , KD) addition of the PID controller. Since, established controllers PID are neglecting to control the drive when weight parameters be likewise changed. The principle point of this paper is to dissect the execution of optimization techniques viz. The Genetic Algorithm (GA) for improve PID controllers parameters for velocity control of DC motor and list their points of interest over the traditional tuning strategies. The outcomes got from GA calculations were contrasted and that got from traditional technique. It was found that the optimization techniques beat customary tuning practices of ordinary PID controllers.

Keywords: DC motor, PID controller, optimization techniques, genetic algorithm (GA), objective function, IAE

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Authors: Herng-Sheng Lee, Chi-Yi Chen, Wan-Ting Huang, Li-Jen Chang, Solomon Chih-Cheng Chen, Hsin-Yi Yang

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A variety of gastrointestinal disorders, such as Crohn’s disease, ulcerative colitis, and coeliac disease, are recognized as risk factors for osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures. One recent study suggests that individuals with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) might also be at increased risk of osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures. Up to now, the association between IBS and the risk of fractures at different anatomic sites occurrences is not completely clear. We conducted a population-based cohort analysis to investigate the fracture risk of IBS in comparison with non-IBS group. We identified 29,505 adults aged ≥ 20 years with newly diagnosed IBS using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database in 2000-2012. A comparison group was constructed of patients without IBS who were matched according to gender and age. The occurrence of fracture was monitored until the end of 2013. We analyzed the risk of fracture events to occur in IBS by using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Patients with IBS had a higher incidence of osteoporotic fractures compared with non-IBS group (12.34 versus 9.45 per 1,000 person-years) and an increased risk of osteoporotic fractures (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.27, 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 1.20 – 1.35). Site specific analysis showed that the IBS group had a higher risk of fractures for spine, forearm, hip and hand than did the non-IBS group. With further stratification for gender and age, a higher aHR value for osteoporotic fractures in IBS group was seen across all age groups in males, but seen in elderly females. In addition, female, elderly, low income, hypertension, coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, and depressive disorders as independent osteoporotic fracture risk factors in IBS patients. The IBS is considered as a risk factor for osteoporotic fractures, particularly in female individuals and fracture sites located at the spine, forearm, hip and hand.

Keywords: irritable bowel syndrome, fracture, gender difference, longitudinal health insurance database, public health

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Authors: Kshitij Sawke, Pradnyavant Kamble, Shrikant Patil

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The study investigates the effect on wear rate of laser clad of cast iron with silicon carbide. Metal components fail their desired use because they wear, which causes them to lose their functionality. The laser has been used as a heating source to create a melt pool over the surface of cast iron, and then a layer of hard silicon carbide is deposited. Various combinations of power and feed rate of laser have experimented. A suitable range of laser processing parameters was identified. Wear resistance and wear rate properties were evaluated and the result showed that the wear resistance of the laser treated samples was exceptional to that of the untreated samples.

Keywords: laser clad, processing parameters, wear rate, wear resistance

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Authors: S. Jursová, P. Pustějovská, S. Brožová, J. Bilík

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The paper deals with possibilities of interpretation of iron ore reducibility tests. It presents a mathematical model developed at Centre ENET, VŠB–Technical University of Ostrava, Czech Republic for an evaluation of metallurgical material of blast furnace feedstock such as iron ore, sinter or pellets. According to the data from the test, the model predicts its usage in blast furnace technology and its effects on production parameters of shaft aggregate. At the beginning, the paper sums up the general concept and experience in mathematical modelling of iron ore reduction. It presents basic equation for the calculation and the main parts of the developed model. In the experimental part, there is an example of usage of the mathematical model. The paper describes the usage of data for some predictive calculation. There are presented material, method of carried test of iron ore reducibility. Then there are graphically interpreted effects of used material on carbon consumption, rate of direct reduction and the whole reduction process.

Keywords: blast furnace technology, iron ore reduction, mathematical model, prediction of iron ore reduction

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Authors: Aleksandra Dudkowska, Gabriela Gic-Grusza

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Wind wave-induced sediment transport is an important multidimensional and multiscale dynamic process affecting coastal seabed changes and coastline evolution. The knowledge about sediment transport rate is important to solve many environmental and geotechnical issues. There are many types of sediment transport models but none of them is widely accepted. It is bacause the process is not fully defined. Another problem is a lack of sufficient measurment data to verify proposed hypothesis. There are different types of models for longshore sediment transport (LST, which is discussed in this work) and cross-shore transport which is related to different time and space scales of the processes. There are models describing bed-load transport (discussed in this work), suspended and total sediment transport. LST models use among the others the information about (i) the flow velocity near the bottom, which in case of wave-currents interaction in coastal zone is a separate problem (ii) critical bed shear stress that strongly depends on the type of sediment and complicates in the case of heterogeneous sediment. Moreover, LST rate is strongly dependant on the local environmental conditions. To organize existing knowledge a series of sediment transport models intercomparisons was carried out as a part of the project “Development of a predictive model of morphodynamic changes in the coastal zone”. Four classical one-grid-point models were studied and intercompared over wide range of bottom shear stress conditions, corresponding with wind-waves conditions appropriate for coastal zone in polish marine areas. The set of models comprises classical theories that assume simplified influence of turbulence on the sediment transport (Du Boys, Meyer-Peter & Muller, Ribberink, Engelund & Hansen). It turned out that the values of estimated longshore instantaneous mass sediment transport are in general in agreement with earlier studies and measurements conducted in the area of interest. However, none of the formulas really stands out from the rest as being particularly suitable for the test location over the whole analyzed flow velocity range. Therefore, based on the models discussed a new unified formula for longshore sediment transport rate estimation is introduced, which constitutes the main original result of this study. Sediment transport rate is calculated based on the bed shear stress and critical bed shear stress. The dependence of environmental conditions is expressed by one coefficient (in a form of constant or function) thus the model presented can be quite easily adjusted to the local conditions. The discussion of the importance of each model parameter for specific velocity ranges is carried out. Moreover, it is shown that the value of near-bottom flow velocity is the main determinant of longshore bed-load in storm conditions. Thus, the accuracy of the results depends less on the sediment transport model itself and more on the appropriate modeling of the near-bottom velocities.

Keywords: bedload transport, longshore sediment transport, sediment transport models, coastal zone

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Authors: Sungjun Hong, Youah Lee, Jongwook Kim

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In the last COP21 held in Paris on 2015, Korean government announced that Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) was 37% based on BAU by 2030. The GHG reduction rate of the transportation sector is the strongest among all sectors by 2020. In order to cope with Korean INDC, Korean government established that 3rd eco-friendly car deployment national plans at the end of 2015. In this study, we make the energy system model for estimating GHG emissions using LEAP model.

Keywords: INDC, greenhouse gas, LEAP, transportation

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Authors: Hesham Abdin, Mohamed Zakaria, Talaat Abd-Elmonaem, Alaa El-Din Sayed Hafez

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Kalman filter algorithm is an estimator known as the workhorse of estimation. It has an important application in missile guidance, especially in lack of accurate data of the target due to noise or uncertainty. In this paper, a Kalman filter is used as a tracking filter in a simulated target-interceptor scenario with noise. It estimates the position, velocity, and acceleration of the target in the presence of noise. These estimations are needed for both proportional navigation and differential geometry guidance laws. A Kalman filter has a good performance at low noise, but a large noise causes considerable errors leads to performance degradation. Therefore, a new technique is required to overcome this defect using tuning factors to tune a Kalman filter to adapt increasing of noise. The values of the tuning factors are between 0.8 and 1.2, they have a specific value for the first half of range and a different value for the second half. they are multiplied by the estimated values. These factors have its optimum values and are altered with the change of the target heading. A genetic algorithm updates these selections to increase the maximum effective range which was previously reduced by noise. The results show that the selected factors have other benefits such as decreasing the minimum effective range that was increased earlier due to noise. In addition to, the selected factors decrease the miss distance for all ranges of this direction of the target, and expand the effective range which leads to increase probability of kill.

Keywords: proportional navigation, differential geometry, Kalman filter, genetic algorithm

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Authors: G. Cinelli, T. Tollefsen, P. Bossew, V. Gruber, R. Braga, M. A. Hernández-Ceballos, M. De Cort

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In 2006, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission started the project of the 'European Atlas of Natural Radiation'. The Atlas aims at preparing a collection of maps of Europe displaying the levels of natural radioactivity caused by different sources (indoor and outdoor radon, cosmic radiation, terrestrial radionuclides, terrestrial gamma radiation, etc). The overall goal of the project is to estimate, in geographical resolution, the annual dose that the public may receive from natural radioactivity, combining all the information from the different radiation components. The first map which has been developed is the European map of indoor radon (Rn) since in most cases Rn is the most important contribution to exposure. New versions of the map are realised when new countries join the project or when already participating countries send new data. We show the latest status of this map which currently includes 25 European countries. Second, the JRC has undertaken to map a variable which measures 'what earth delivers' in terms of Rn. The corresponding quantity is called geogenic radon potential (RP). Due to the heterogeneity of data sources across the Europe there is need to develop a harmonized quantity which at the one hand adequately measures or classifies the RP, and on the other hand is suited to accommodate the variety of input data used to estimate this target quantity. Candidates for input quantities which may serve as predictors of the RP, and for which data are available across Europe, to different extent, are Uranium (U) concentration in rocks and soils, soil gas radon and soil permeability, terrestrial gamma dose rate, geological information and indoor data from ground floor. The European Geogenic Radon Map gives the possibility to characterize areas, on European geographical scale, for radon hazard where indoor radon measurements are not available. Parallel to ongoing work on the European Indoor Radon, Geogenic Radon and Cosmic Radiation Maps, we made progress in the development of maps of terrestrial gamma radiation and U, Th and K concentrations in soil and bedrock. We show the first, preliminary map of the terrestrial gamma dose rate, estimated using the data of ambient dose equivalent rate available from the EURDEP system (about 5000 fixed monitoring stations across Europe). Also, the first maps of U, Th, and K concentrations in soil and bedrock are shown in the present work.

Keywords: Europe, natural radiation, mapping, indoor radon

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Authors: D. Srinivasacharya, G. Madhava Rao

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In this article, the pulsatile flow of blood flow in bifurcated artery with mild stenosis is investigated. Blood is treated to be a micropolar fluid with constant density. The arteries forming bifurcation are assumed to be symmetric about its axes and straight cylinders of restricted length. As the geometry of the stenosed bifurcated artery is irregular, it is changed to regular geometry utilizing the appropriate transformations. The numerical solutions, using the finite difference method, are computed for the flow rate, the shear stress, and the impedance. The influence of time, coupling number, half of the bifurcated angle and Womersley number on shear stress, flow rate and impedance (resistance to the flow) on both sides of the flow divider is shown graphically. It has been observed that the shear stress and flow rate are increasing with increase in the values of Womersley number and bifurcation angle on both sides of the apex. The shear stress is increasing along the inner wall and decreasing along the outer wall of the daughter artery with an increase in the value of coupling number. Further, it has been noticed that the shear stress, flow rate, and impedance are perturbed largely near to the apex in the parent artery due to the presence of backflow near the apex.

Keywords: micropolar fluid, bifurcated artery, stenosis, back flow, secondary flow, pulsatile flow, Womersley number

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Authors: Raymond K. Dziwornu

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Lending rate of agriculture loan has persistently been high and attributed to risk in the sector. This study examined how food inflation and agriculture lending rate react to each other in Ghana using vector autoregressive approach. Quarterly data from 2006 to 2018 was obtained from the Bank of Ghana quarterly bulletin and the Ghana Statistical Service reports. The study found that a positive standard deviation shock to food inflation causes lending rate of agriculture loan to react negatively in the short run, but positively and steadily in the long run. This suggests the need to direct appropriate policy measures to reduce food inflation and consequently, the cost of credit to the agricultural sector for its growth.

Keywords: food inflation, agriculture, lending rate, vector autoregressive, Ghana

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Authors: Azam Salimi, Majid Delshad

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This paper presents a modified design of a sliding mode controller based on fuzzy logic for a New ZVThigh step up DC-DC Converter . Here a proportional - integral (PI)-type current mode control is employed and a sliding mode controller is designed utilizing fuzzy algorithm. Sliding mode controller guarantees robustness against all variations and fuzzy logic helps to reduce chattering phenomenon due to sliding controller, in that way efficiency increases and error, voltage and current ripples decreases. The proposed system is simulated using MATLAB / SIMULINK. This model is tested under variations of input and reference voltages and it was found that in comparison with conventional sliding mode controllers they perform better.

Keywords: switching mode power supplies, DC-DC converters, sliding mode control, robustness, fuzzy control, current mode control, non-linear behavior

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Authors: Murray L. Ireland, Kevin J. Worrall, Rebecca Mackenzie, Thaleia Flessa, Euan McGookin, Douglas Thomson

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Robotic rovers which are designed to work in extra-terrestrial environments present a unique challenge in terms of the reliability and availability of systems throughout the mission. Should some fault occur, with the nearest human potentially millions of kilometres away, detection and identification of the fault must be performed solely by the robot and its subsystems. Faults in the system sensors are relatively straightforward to detect, through the residuals produced by comparison of the system output with that of a simple model. However, faults in the input, that is, the actuators of the system, are harder to detect. A step change in the input signal, caused potentially by the loss of an actuator, can propagate through the system, resulting in complex residuals in multiple outputs. These residuals can be difficult to isolate or distinguish from residuals caused by environmental disturbances. While a more complex fault detection method or additional sensors could be used to solve these issues, an alternative is presented here. Using inverse simulation (InvSim), the inputs and outputs of the mathematical model of the rover system are reversed. Thus, for a desired trajectory, the corresponding actuator inputs are obtained. A step fault near the input then manifests itself as a step change in the residual between the system inputs and the input trajectory obtained through inverse simulation. This approach avoids the need for additional hardware on a mass- and power-critical system such as the rover. The InvSim fault detection method is applied to a simple four-wheeled rover in simulation. Additive system faults and an external disturbance force and are applied to the vehicle in turn, such that the dynamic response and sensor output of the rover are impacted. Basic model-based fault detection is then employed to provide output residuals which may be analysed to provide information on the fault/disturbance. InvSim-based fault detection is then employed, similarly providing input residuals which provide further information on the fault/disturbance. The input residuals are shown to provide clearer information on the location and magnitude of an input fault than the output residuals. Additionally, they can allow faults to be more clearly discriminated from environmental disturbances.

Keywords: fault detection, ground robot, inverse simulation, rover

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Authors: Xiaodong Gao, Pingchuan Dong, Qichao Gao

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There has been lots of published work focused on asphaltene deposited on the smooth pipe under steady conditions, while particle deposition on the blockage wellbores under transient conditions has not been well elucidated. This work attempts to predict the deposition rate of asphaltene particles in blockage tube through CFD simulation. The Euler-Lagrange equation has been applied during the flow of crude oil and asphaltene particles. The net gravitational force, virtual mass, pressure gradient, saffman lift, and drag forces are incorporated in the simulations process. Validation of CFD simulation results is compared to the benchmark experiments from the previous literature. Furthermore, the effect of blockage location, blockage length, and blockage thickness on deposition rate are also analyzed. The simulation results indicate that the maximum deposition rate of asphaltene occurs in the blocked tube section, and the greater the deposition thickness, the greater the deposition rate. Moreover, the deposition amount and maximum deposition rate along the length of the tube have the same trend. Results of this study are in the ability to better understand the deposition of asphaltene particles in production and help achieve to deal with the asphaltene challenges.

Keywords: asphaltene deposition rate, blockage length, blockage thickness, blockage diameter, transient condition

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Authors: Fasil Wagnew, Kerri Viney, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Matthew Kelly, Darren Gray

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Background: Undernutrition is a risk factor for tuberculosis (TB), including poor treatment outcomes. However, evidence regarding the effect of undernutrition on TB treatment outcomes is not well understood. We aimed to evaluate the effect of undernutrition on sputum culture conversion and treatment outcomes among people with multi-drug resistance (MDR)-TB. Methods: We searched for publications in the Medline, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science databases without restrictions on geography or year of publication. We conducted a random-effect meta-analysis to estimate the effects of undernutrition on sputum culture conversion and treatment outcomes. Two reviewers independently assessed the study eligibility, extracted the necessary information, and assessed the risk of bias. Depending on the nature of the data, odds ratio (OR) and hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to summarize the effect estimates. Potential publication bias was checked using funnel plots and Egger’s tests. Results: Of 2358 records screened, 59 studies comprising a total of 31,254 people with MDR-TB were included. Undernutrition was significantly associated with a lower sputum culture conversion rate (HR 0·7, 95% CI 0·6–0·9, I2=67·1%) and a higher rate of mortality (OR 2·9, 95%CI 2·1–3·8, I2=23·7%) and unfavourable treatment outcomes (OR 1·8, 95%CI 1·5–2·0, I2=72·7%). There was no statistically significant publication bias in the included studies. Three studies were low, forty-two studies were moderate, and fourteen studies were high quality. Interpretations: Undernutrition was significantly associated with unfavourable treatment outcomes, including mortality and lower sputum culture conversion among people with MDR-TB. These findings have implications for supporting targeted nutritional interventions alongside standardised second-line TB drugs.

Keywords: undernutrition, MDR-TB, sputum culture conversion, treatment outcomes, meta-analysis

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Authors: Ahmed Elwaleed, Huiho Jeong, Ali H. Abdelbagi, Nguyen Thi Quynh, Koji Arizono, Yasuhiro Ishibashi

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Artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) poses substantial risks to both human health and the environment, particularly through contamination of soil, water, and air. Prolonged exposure to ASGM-contaminated soils can lead to acute or chronic mercury toxicity. This study assesses the human health risks associated with mercury-contaminated soils and tailings in the Alebediah mining community in Sudan. Soil samples were collected from various locations within Alebediah, including ASGM areas, farmlands, and residential areas, along with tailings samples commonly found within ASGM sites. The evaluation of potential health risks to humans included the computation of the estimated daily intake (AvDI), the hazard quotient (HQ), and the hazard index (HI) for both adults and children. The primary exposure route identified as potentially posing a significant health risk was the volatilization of mercury from tailings samples, where mercury concentrations reached up to 25.5 mg/kg. In contrast, other samples within the ASGM area showed elevated mercury levels but did not present significant health risks, with HI values below 1. However, all areas indicated HI values above 1 for the remaining exposure routes. The study observed a decrease in mercury concentration with increasing distance from the ASGM community. Additionally, soil samples revealed elevated mercury levels exceeding background values, prompting an assessment of contamination levels using the enrichment factor (EF). The findings indicated that farmlands and residential areas exhibited depleted EF, while areas surrounding the ASGM community showed none to moderate pollution. In contrast, ASGM areas exhibited significant to extreme pollution. A GIS map was generated to visually depict the extent of mercury pollution, facilitating communication with stakeholders and decision-makers.

Keywords: mercury pollution, artisanal and small-scale gold mining, health risk assessment, hazard index, soil and tailings, enrichment factor

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Authors: S. P. Sharma, Som Nath Saha

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This paper deals with the analytical investigation of thermal and thermohydraulic performance of double flow solar air heaters with corrugated and flat plate absorber. A mathematical model of double flow solar air heater has been presented, and a computer program in C⁺⁺ language is developed to estimate the outlet temperature of air for the evaluation of thermal and thermohydraulic efficiency by solving the governing equations numerically using relevant correlations for heat transfer coefficients. The results obtained from the mathematical model is compared with the available experimental results and it is found to be reasonably good. The results show that the double flow solar air heaters have higher efficiency than conventional solar air heater, although the double flow corrugated absorber is superior to that of flat plate double flow solar air heater. It is also observed that the thermal efficiency increases with increase in mass flow rate; however, thermohydraulic efficiency increases with increase in mass flow rate up to a certain limit, attains the maximum value, then thereafter decreases sharply.

Keywords: corrugated absorber, double flow, solar air heater, thermos-hydraulic efficiency

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Authors: Vitus Onyebuchim Onyemailu, Olive Obianuju Okalibe

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The study tried to examine relationship between exchange rate variations on the balance of payments in Nigeria from 1970 to 2012. Using time series on econometric measures such as Granger causality and ordinary least square (OLS), the study found that exchange rate movements especially the depreciation of naira has not contributed significantly on the balance of payments under the year of the study. The granger result conform the Marshall-Lerner short and long run prepositions that exchange rate devaluation enhances balance of payments. On disaggregation exchange rate granger causes current and capital account balances give the Nigeria data from 1970 to 2012. Overall in the long run OLS regression analysis, exchange rate on semi log functional form, exchange rate variation did not record significant effect on balance of payment equation. This height was also maintained in the current or trade balance which does not match the Marshall-Lerner. The capital account balance in reverse reported a significant impact of exchange rate variability on the capital account balance. Finally, on exchange rate determination equation, where many fundamentals were considered including lagged of exchange rate. Thus, the lagged of exchange rate recorded a positive and significant influence on the present exchange rate. This means that players in the financial markets usually out plays authority’s policy’s stances through their speculative tendencies. The work therefore, recommend that effort should be made by the authorities to providing enabling environment for production of goods and services to triumph in order to take advantages of steady devaluation of its currency. This is done by providing infrastructure, provision of science and technology. Thus, when this is done Nigeria would be able to have competitive power against the rest of the world.

Keywords: exchange rate variation, balance of payments, current account, capital account, Marshall-Lerner hypothesis

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Authors: Bayu Rizky Pratama, Hardiansyah Nur Sahaya

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Riau Province is the worst emitter for forest burning which causes the huge scale of externality such as declining of forest habitat, health disease, and climate change impact. Indonesia forum of budget transparency for Riau Province (FITRA) reported the length of forest burning reached about 186.069 hectares which is 7,13% of total national forest burning disaster, consisted of 107.000 hectares of peatland and the rest 79.069 hectares of mineral land. Anti-fire group, a voluntary group next to the forest, to help in protecting the forest burning and heavily smoke residual has been established but unfortunately the implementation still far from expectation. This research will emphasize on (1) how the anti-fire group contribute to fire hazard tackling; (2) the identification of SWOT analysis to enhance the group benefit; and (3) government policy implication to maximize the role of Anti-fire group and reduce the case of forest burning as well as heavily smoke which can raise climate change impact. As the observation found some weakness from SWOT identification such as (1) lack of education and training; (2) facility in extinguishing the fire damage; (3) law for economic incentive; (4) communication and field experience; (5) also the reporting the fire case.

Keywords: anti-fire group, forest burning impact, SWOT, climate change mitigation

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Authors: Hicham Gourgue, Ahmed Aharoune, Ahmed Ihlal

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We present in this work our model of road traffic emissions (line sources) and dispersion of these emissions, named DISPOLSPEM (Dispersion of Poly Sources and Pollutants Emission Model). In its emission part, this model was designed to keep the consistent bottom-up and top-down approaches. It also allows to generate emission inventories from reduced input parameters being adapted to existing conditions in Morocco and in the other developing countries. While several simplifications are made, all the performance of the model results are kept. A further important advantage of the model is that it allows the uncertainty calculation and emission rate uncertainty according to each of the input parameters. In the dispersion part of the model, an improved line source model has been developed, implemented and tested against a reference solution. It provides improvement in accuracy over previous formulas of line source Gaussian plume model, without being too demanding in terms of computational resources. In the case study presented here, the biggest errors were associated with the ends of line source sections; these errors will be canceled by adjacent sections of line sources during the simulation of a road network. In cases where the wind is parallel to the source line, the use of the combination discretized source and analytical line source formulas minimizes remarkably the error. Because this combination is applied only for a small number of wind directions, it should not excessively increase the calculation time.

Keywords: air pollution, dispersion, emissions, line sources, road traffic, urban transport

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Authors: Habila Nuhu

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Natural radionuclides in the environment can significantly contribute to human exposure to ionizing radiation. The knowledge of their levels in an environment can help the radiological protection agencies in policymaking. Measurement of natural radioactivity in major soils in the tin mining state of Perak Malaysia has been conducted using an HPGe detector. Seventy (70) soil samples were collected at widely distributed locations in the state. Six major soil types were sampled, and thirteen districts around the state were covered. The following were the results of the 226Ra (238U), 228Ra (232Th), and 40K activity in the soil samples: 226Ra (238U) has a mean activity concentration of 191.83 Bq kg⁻¹, more than five times the UNSCEAR reference limits of 35 Bq kg⁻¹. The mean activity concentration of 228Ra (232Th) with a value of 232.41 Bq kg⁻¹ is over seven times the UNSCEAR reference values of 30 Bq kg⁻¹. The average concentration of 40K activity was 275.24 Bq kg⁻¹, which was less than the UNSCEAR reference limit of 400 Bq Kg⁻¹. The range of external hazards index (Hₑₓ) values was from 1.03 to 2.05, while the internal hazards index (Hin) was from 1.48 to 3.08. The Hex and Hin should be less than one for minimal external and internal radiation threats as well as secure use of soil material for building construction. The Hₑₓ and Hin results generally indicate that while using the soil types and their derivatives as building materials in the study area, care must be taken.

Keywords: activity concentration, hazard index, soil samples, tin mining

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Authors: Xiang Zheng, Zhaoping Zhong

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In this study, Aspen Plus was used to simulate the whole process of biomass conversion to liquid fuel in different ways, and the main results of material and energy flow were obtained. The process optimization and evaluation were carried out on the four routes of cellulosic biomass pyrolysis gasification low-carbon olefin synthesis olefin oligomerization, biomass water pyrolysis and polymerization to jet fuel, biomass fermentation to ethanol, and biomass pyrolysis to liquid fuel. The environmental impacts of three biomass species (poplar wood, corn stover, and rice husk) were compared by the gasification synthesis pathway. The global warming potential, acidification potential, and eutrophication potential of the three biomasses were the same as those of rice husk > poplar wood > corn stover. In terms of human health hazard potential and solid waste potential, the results were poplar > rice husk > corn stover. In the popular pathway, 100 kg of poplar biomass was input to obtain 11.9 kg of aviation coal fraction and 6.3 kg of gasoline fraction. The energy conversion rate of the system was 31.6% when the output product energy included only the aviation coal product. In the basic process of hydrothermal depolymerization process, 14.41 kg aviation kerosene was produced per 100 kg biomass. The energy conversion rate of the basic process was 33.09%, which can be increased to 38.47% after the optimal utilization of lignin gasification and steam reforming for hydrogen production. The total exergy efficiency of the system increased from 30.48% to 34.43% after optimization, and the exergy loss mainly came from the concentration of precursor dilute solution. Global warming potential in environmental impact is mostly affected by the production process. Poplar wood was used as raw material in the process of ethanol production from cellulosic biomass. The simulation results showed that 827.4 kg of pretreatment mixture, 450.6 kg of fermentation broth, and 24.8 kg of ethanol were produced per 100 kg of biomass. The power output of boiler combustion reached 94.1 MJ, the unit power consumption in the process was 174.9 MJ, and the energy conversion rate was 33.5%. The environmental impact was mainly concentrated in the production process and agricultural processes. On the basis of the original biomass pyrolysis to liquid fuel, the enzymatic hydrolysis lignin residue produced by cellulose fermentation to produce ethanol was used as the pyrolysis raw material, and the fermentation and pyrolysis processes were coupled. In the coupled process, 24.8 kg ethanol and 4.78 kg upgraded liquid fuel were produced per 100 kg biomass with an energy conversion rate of 35.13%.

Keywords: biomass conversion, biofuel, process optimization, life cycle assessment

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Authors: H. Shokouhmand, H. Sobhani, B. Sajadi, M. Degheh

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In recent years, experimental and numerical investigation of water UV reactors has increased significantly. The main drawback of experimental methods is confined and expensive survey of UV reactors features. In this study, a CFD model utilizing the eulerian-lagrangian framework is applied to analysis the disinfection performance of a closed conduit reactor which contains four UV lamps perpendicular to the flow. A discrete ordinates (DO) model was employed to evaluate the UV irradiance field. To investigate the importance of each of lamps on the inactivation performance, in addition to the reference model (with 4 bright lamps), several models with one or two bright lamps in various arrangements were considered. All results were reported in three inactivation kinetics. The results showed that the log inactivation of the two central bright lamps model was between 88-99 percent, close to the reference model results. Also, whatever the lamps are closer to the main flow region, they have more effect on microbial inactivation. The effect of some operational parameters such as water flow rate, inlet water temperature, and lamps power were also studied.

Keywords: Eulerian-Lagrangian framework, inactivation kinetics, log inactivation, water UV reactor

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Authors: Mechlouch Ridha Fethi

Abstract:

This paper presents a recent mathematical model in political sciences concerning democracy. The model is represented by a logarithmic equation linking the Relative Index of Democracy (RID) to Participation Ratio (PR). Firstly the meanings of the different parameters of the model were presented; and the variation curve of the RID according to PR with different critical areas was discussed. Secondly, the model was applied to a virtual group where we show that the model can be applied depending on the gender. Thirdly, it was observed that the model can be extended to different language models of democracy and that little use to assess the state of democracy for some International organizations like UNO.

Keywords: democracy, mathematic, modelization, quantification

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Authors: Elias Kodjo Kekesi

Abstract:

This study seeks to investigate a critical but neglected area in disaster and emergency management in Ghana. It explores aspects of work within one of the safety-critical work environments that expose workers to psychological, social and physical harm. With much attention to crises’ survivors, deceased and their families, this research attempts to answer a key question: ‘What happens to the rescuer’? Emergency response is associated with immense and unprecedented pressure that puts responders’ physical, mental and social well-being at risk. Despite the negative psychological outcomes, scholars argue that being in a traumatic situation may trigger positive outcomes for some people. Thus, the study also focuses on the positive impact of working in a risky crisis environment. Additionally, people’s interpretation of negative experiences or exposure to adverse conditions differ owing to their personal resources which explains why some people may be negatively affected whiles others are positively impacted. To examine these complex nuances, an exploratory sequential mixed method design is adopted. This paper will highlight the findings of study one, which explores the underlying themes emerging from the Ghanaian disaster and emergency response environment regarding psychosocial hazard exposures and the corresponding outcomes.

Keywords: psychosocial hazards, organisational outcomes, qualitative research, Ghana

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Authors: Amirreza Niktash, B. P. Huynh

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A windcatcher is a structure fitted on the roof of a building for providing natural ventilation by using wind power; it exhausts the inside stale air to the outside and supplies the outside fresh air into the interior space of the building working by pressure difference between outside and inside of the building and using ventilation principles of passive stacks and wind tower, respectively. In this paper, the effect of different heights of inlet/outlets’ ducts of a two-sided windcatcher on the flow rate, flow velocity and flow pattern through a three-dimensional room fitted with the windcatcher are investigated and analysed by using RANS CFD technique and applying standard K-ε turbulence model via a commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software package. The achieved results show that the inlet/outlet ducts height strongly affects flow rate, flow velocity and flow pattern especially in the living area of the room when the wind velocity is not too low. The results are confirmed by the experimental test for constructed scaled model in the laboratory and it develops the two-sided windcatcher’s performance in ventilation applications.

Keywords: CFD, RANS, ventilation, windcatcher

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Authors: Leon Pan

Abstract:

The first programming course within post-secondary education has long been recognized as a challenging endeavor for both educators and students alike. Historically, these courses have exhibited high failure rates and a notable number of dropouts. Instructors often lament students' lack of effort in their coursework, and students often express frustration that the teaching methods employed are not effective. Drawing inspiration from the successful principles of Extreme Programming, this study introduces an approach—the Extremes-based teaching model — aimed at enhancing the teaching of introductory programming courses. To empirically determine the effectiveness of the model, a comparison was made between a section taught using the extreme-based model and another utilizing traditional teaching methods. Notably, the extreme-based teaching class required students to work collaboratively on projects while also demanding continuous assessment and performance enhancement within groups. This paper details the application of the extreme-based model within the post-secondary online classroom context and presents the compelling results that emphasize its effectiveness in advancing the teaching and learning experiences. The extreme-based model led to a significant increase of 13.46 points in the weighted total average and a commendable 10% reduction in the failure rate.

Keywords: extreme-based teaching model, innovative pedagogical methods, project-based learning, team-based learning

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Authors: Dong-Ho Kim, Zheng-Xun Jin, Yong-Woon Cha, Su-Sang Lim, Sang-Won Han, Chang-Taek Hyun

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As construction is a labor-intensive industry, it is important to identify and manage labor quantities for accurate progress management of the construction project. However, the progress management that focuses on construction cost calculated based on materials rather than labor quantities has led to a difference in the implementation of cost and progress of the actual construction. In addition, since it is not easy to predict accurate labor quantities in the estimation of labor quantity-based progress rate, there have been limited researches into the progress rate estimation based on labor quantity. Accordingly, this study proposed a process for labor quantity-based progress rate estimation using a standard of estimate to predict accurate progress rate of the construction project in Republic Korea. It is expected that the utilization of the proposed process will help to identify the progress rate closer to that of the actual site management and adjust the workforce in each construction type, thereby contributing to improving construction efficiency.

Keywords: labor based, labor cost, progress management, progress rate, progress payment

Procedia PDF Downloads 336