Search results for: autoregressive integrate moving average model selection

Authors: Dong Wu, Michael Grenn

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Managing software projects effectively is crucial for meeting deadlines, ensuring quality, and managing resources well. Traditional methods often struggle with predicting project timelines accurately due to uncertain schedules and complex data. This study addresses these challenges by combining time prediction algorithms with Large Language Models (LLMs). It makes use of real-world software project data to construct and validate a model. The model takes detailed project progress data such as task completion dynamic, team Interaction and development metrics as its input and outputs predictions of project timelines. To evaluate the effectiveness of this model, a comprehensive methodology is employed, involving simulations and practical applications in a variety of real-world software project scenarios. This multifaceted evaluation strategy is designed to validate the model's significant role in enhancing forecast accuracy and elevating overall management efficiency, particularly in complex software project environments. The results indicate that the integration of time prediction algorithms with LLMs has the potential to optimize software project progress management. These quantitative results suggest the effectiveness of the method in practical applications. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that integrating time prediction algorithms with LLMs can significantly improve the predictive accuracy and efficiency of software project management. This offers an advanced project management tool for the industry, with the potential to improve operational efficiency, optimize resource allocation, and ensure timely project completion.

Keywords: software project management, time prediction algorithms, large language models (LLMS), forecast accuracy, project progress prediction

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Authors: Iman Shabanzadeh

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In terms of its geopolitical position, Iran has been one of the main centers of migration movements in the world in recent decades. However, the policy makers' lack of preparation in completing the cycle of social integration of these immigrants, especially the second and third generation, has caused these people to always be prone to leave the country and immigrate to developed and industrialized countries. In this research, the issue of integration of immigrants in Iran from the perspective of four indicators, "Identity Documents", "Access to Banking Services", "Access to Health and Treatment Services" and "Obtaining a Driver's License" will be analyzed. The research method is descriptive-analytical. To collect information, library and document sources in the field of laws and regulations related to immigrants' rights in Iran, semi-structured interviews with experts have been used. The investigations of this study show that none of the residence documents of immigrants in Iran guarantee the full enjoyment of basic citizenship rights for them. In fact, the function of many of these identity documents, such as the census card, educational support card, etc., is only to prevent crossing the border, and none of them guarantee the basic rights of citizenship. Therefore, for many immigrants, the difference between legality and illegality is only in the risk of crossing the border, and this has led to the spread of the habit of illegal presence for them. Despite this, it seems that there is no clear and coherent policy framework around the issue of foreign immigrants in the country. This policy incoherence can be clearly seen in the diversity and plurality of identity and legal documents of the citizens present in the country and the policy maker's lack of planning to integrate and organize the identity of this huge group. Examining the differences and socioeconomic inequalities between immigrants and the native Iranian population shows that immigrants have been poorly integrated into the structures of Iranian society from an economic and social point of view.

Keywords: immigrants, social integration, citizen services, structural inequality

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Authors: Jilbert Novelero, Oliver Mariano

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In a world where technological evolution and competition to create innovative products are at its peak, problems on Electronic Waste (E-Waste) are now becoming a global concern. E-waste is said to be any electrical or electronic devices that have reached the terminal of its useful life. The major issue are the volume and the raw materials used in crafting E-waste which is non-biodegradable and contains hazardous substances that are toxic to human health and the environment. The objective of this study is to gather baseline data in terms of the composition of E-waste in the solid waste stream and to determine the top 5 E-waste categories in a highly urbanized city. Recommendations in managing these wastes for its reduction were provided which may serve as a guide for acceptance and implementation in the locality. Pasig City was the chosen beneficiary of the research output and through the collaboration of the City Government of Pasig and its Solid Waste Management Office (SWMO); the researcher successfully conducted the Electronic Waste Analysis and Characterization Study (E-WACS) to achieve the objectives. E-WACS that was conducted on April 2019 showed that E-waste ranked 4th which comprises the 10.39% of the overall solid waste volume. Out of 345, 127.24kg which is the total daily domestic waste generation in the city, E-waste covers 35,858.72kg. Moreover, an average of 40 grams was determined to be the E-waste generation per person per day. The top 5 E-waste categories were then classified after the analysis. The category which ranked first is the office and telecommunications equipment that contained the 63.18% of the total generated E-waste. Second in ranking was the household appliances category with 21.13% composition. Third was the lighting devices category with 8.17%. Fourth on ranking was the consumer electronics and batteries category which was composed of 5.97% and fifth was the wires and cables category where it comprised the 1.41% of the average generated E-waste samples. One of the recommendations provided in this research is the implementation of the Pasig City Waste Advantage Card. The card can be used as a privilege card and earned points can be converted to avail of and enjoy services such as haircut, massage, dental services, medical check-up, and etc. Another recommendation raised is for the LGU to encourage a communication or dialogue with the technology and electronics manufacturers and distributors and international and local companies to plan the retrieval and disposal of the E-wastes in accordance with the Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) policy where producers are given significant responsibilities for the treatment and disposal of post-consumer products.

Keywords: E-waste, E-WACS, E-waste characterization, electronic waste, electronic waste analysis

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Authors: R. Gounina-Allouane, I. Moussaoui, N. Boukahel

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Bacillus antimicrobial metabolites, especially those of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt), are of great interest for research because of health risks generated by the excessive use of chemical additives as well as the propagation of resistant microbial strains, caused by the massive treatment with antibiotics. The objective of this study was the selection of Bt strains producing antimicrobial peptides (bacteriocins), and the partial purification of the most powerful bacteriocins, then the determination of their spectra of antimicrobial action. A collection of twenty one Bt strains isolated from soil at Boumerdès (northern Algeria) was used for screening strains having an antagonistic activity against phylogenetically closed bacteria. Spectra of antagonistic activity of two selected strains was determined against other Bt strains, Gram positive and Gram negative bacterial strains of clinical origin and others from ATCC collection as well as yeasts isolated in human dermatology. Bacteriocins of these two strains were partially purified and their effect on the kinetics of growth of the most sensitive microbial strains was studied. The bacteriocinogenic strains were biochemically characterized and their sensitivity to antibiotics was studied.

Keywords: antimicrobial peptides, Bacillus thuringiensis, bacteriocin, partial purification

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Authors: Pratiksha Dubey, Praveen Singh, Shantanu Sen Gupta, Anand K. Bachhawat

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5-oxoproline (pyroglutamic acid) is a cyclic lactam of glutamic acid. In the cell, it can be produced by several different pathways and is metabolized into glutamate with the help of the 5-oxoprolinase enzyme (OPLAH or OXP1). The inhibition of 5-oxoprolinase enzyme in mammals was found to result in heart failure and is thought to be a consequence of oxidative stress [1]. To analyze the consequences of 5-oxoproline accumulation more clearly, we are generating models for 5-oxoproline accumulation in yeast. The 5-oxoproline accumulation model in yeast is being developed by two different strategies. The first one is by overexpression of the mouse  -glutamylcyclotransferase enzyme. It degrades -glu-met dipeptide into 5-oxoproline and methionine taken by the cell from the medium. The second strategy is by providing high concentration of 5-oxoproline externally to the yeast cells. The intracellular 5-oxoproline levels in both models are being evaluated. In addition, the metabolic and cellular consequences are being investigated.

Keywords: 5-oxoproline, pyroglutamic acid, yeast, genetics

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Authors: Mahzabin Afroz, Indubhushan Patnaikuni, Srikanth Venkatesan

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It is well-known that fly ash can be used in high volume as a partial replacement of cement to get beneficial effects on concrete. High volume fly ash (HVFA) concrete is currently emerging as a popular option to strengthen by fiber. Although studies have supported the use of fibers with fly ash, a unified model along with the incorporation into finite element software package to estimate the maximum flexural loads need to be developed. In this study, nonlinear finite element analysis of steel fiber reinforced high strength HVFA concrete beam under static loadings was conducted to investigate their failure modes in terms of ultimate load. First of all, the experimental investigation of mechanical properties of high strength HVFA concrete was done and validates with developed numerical model with the appropriate modeling of element size and mesh by ANSYS 16.2. To model the fiber within the concrete, three-dimensional random fiber distribution was simulated by spherical coordinate system. Three types of high strength HVFA concrete beams were analyzed reinforced with 0.5, 1 and 1.5% volume fractions of steel fibers with specific mechanical and physical properties. The result reveals that the use of nonlinear finite element analysis technique and three-dimensional random fiber orientation exhibited fairly good agreement with the experimental results of flexural strength, load deflection and crack propagation mechanism. By utilizing this improved model, it is possible to determine the flexural behavior of different types and proportions of steel fiber reinforced HVFA concrete beam under static load. So, this paper has the originality to predict the flexural properties of steel fiber reinforced high strength HVFA concrete by numerical simulations.

Keywords: finite element analysis, high volume fly ash, steel fibers, spherical coordinate system

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Authors: Emmanuel Uba, Lily Chimuanya, Maryam Tar

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Orthographic engineering is no longer the preserve of the Short Messaging Service (SMS), which is characterised by limited space. Such stylistic creativity or deviation is fast creeping into real-time messaging, popularly known as Instant Messaging (IM), despite the large number of characters allowed. This occurs at various linguistic levels: phonology, morphology, syntax, etc. Nigerians are not immune to this linguistic stylisation. This study investigates the phonological and meta-phonological conventions of the messages sent and received via WhatsApp by Nigerian graduates. This is ontological study of 250 instant messages collected from 98 graduates from different ethnic groups in Nigeria. The selection and analysis of the messages are based on figure and ground principle. The results reveal the use of accent stylisation, phoneme substitution, blending, consonantisation (a specialised form of deletion targeting vowels), numerophony (using a figure/number, usually 1-10, to represent a word or syllable that has the same sound) and phonetic respelling in the IMs sent by Nigerians. The study confirms the existence of linguistic creativity.

Keywords: figure and ground principle, instant messaging, linguistic stylisation, meta-phonology

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Authors: Ganesh Meshram, Gloria Biswal

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In this study, we present the numerical investigation of surface wettability on triangular micropillar surfaces by using a two-dimensional (2D) pseudo-potential multiphase lattice Boltzmann method with a D2Q9 model for various interaction parameters of the range varies from -1.40 to -2.50. Initially, simulation of the equilibrium state of a water droplet on a flat surface is considered for various interaction parameters to examine the accuracy of the present numerical model. We then imposed the microscale pillars on the bottom wall of the surface with different heights of the pillars to form the hydrophobic and superhydrophobic surfaces which enable the higher contact angle. The wettability of surfaces is simulated with water droplets of radius 100 lattice units in the domain of 800x800 lattice units. The present study shows that increasing the interaction parameter of the pillared hydrophobic surfaces dramatically reduces the contact area between water droplets and solid walls due to the momentum redirection phenomenon. Contact angles for different values of interaction strength have been validated qualitatively with the analytical results.

Keywords: contact angle, lattice boltzmann method, d2q9 model, pseudo-potential multiphase method, hydrophobic surfaces, wenzel state, cassie-baxter state, wettability

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Authors: C. M. Mat Isa, H. Mohd Saman, S. R. Mohd Nasir, A. Jaapar

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International market expansion involves a strategic process of market entry decision through which a firm expands its operation from domestic to the international domain. Hence, entry timing choices require the needs to balance the early entry risks and the problems in losing opportunities as a result of late entry into a new market. Questionnaire surveys administered to 115 Malaysian construction firms operating in 51 countries worldwide have resulted in 39.1 percent response rate. Factor analysis was used to determine the most significant factors affecting entry timing choices of the firms to penetrate the international market. A logistic regression analysis used to examine the firms’ entry timing choices, indicates that the model has correctly classified 89.5 per cent of cases as late movers. The findings reveal that the most significant factor influencing the construction firms’ choices as late movers was the firm factor related to the firm’s international experience, resources, competencies and financing capacity. The study also offers valuable information to construction firms with intention to internationalize their businesses.

Keywords: factors, early movers, entry timing choices, late movers, logistic regression model, principal axis factorial analysis, Malaysian construction firms

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Authors: M. Zezou

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This paper focuses on the design of a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) about Content Language Integrated Learning (CLIL) and more specifically about how teachers can use CLIL as an educational approach incorporating technology in their teaching as well. All the four weeks of the MOOC will be presented and a step-by-step analysis of each lesson will be offered. Additionally, the paper includes detailed lesson plans about CLIL lessons with proposed CLIL activities and games in which technology plays a central part. The MOOC is structured based on certain criteria, in order to ensure success, as well as a positive experience that the learners need to have after completing this MOOC. It addresses to all language teachers who would like to implement CLIL into their teaching. In other words, it presents the methodology that needs to be followed so as to successfully carry out a CLIL lesson and achieve the learning objectives set at the beginning of the course. Firstly, in this paper, it is very important to give the definitions of MOOCs and LMOOCs, as well as to explore the difference between a structure-based MOOC (xMOOC) and a connectivist MOOC (cMOOC) and present the criteria of a successful MOOC. Moreover, the notion of CLIL will be explored, as it is necessary to fully understand this concept before moving on to the design of the MOOC. Onwards, the four weeks of the MOOC will be introduced as well as lesson plans will be presented: The type of the activities, the aims of each activity and the methodology that teachers have to follow. Emphasis will be placed on the role of technology in foreign language learning and on the ways in which we can involve technology in teaching a foreign language. Final remarks will be made and a summary of the main points will be offered at the end.

Keywords: CLIL, cMOOC, lesson plan, LMOOC, MOOC criteria, MOOC, technology, xMOOC

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Authors: Juliana C. Salvadori, Jose Carlos Felix

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This paper aims at discussing the role literary translation has played in Brazilian Concrete Poetry Movement – an aesthetic, critical and pedagogical project which conceived translation as poiesis, i.e., as both creative and critic work in which the potency (dynamic) of literary work is unfolded in the interpretive and critic act (energeia) the translating practice demands. We argue that translation, for concrete poets, is conceived within the framework provided by the reinterpretation –or deglutition– of Oswald de Andrade’s anthropophagy – a carefully selected feast from which the poets pick and model their Paideuma. As a case study, we propose to approach and analyze two of Augusto de Campos’s long-term translation projects: the translation of Emily Dickinson’s and E. E. Cummings’s works to Brazilian readers. Augusto de Campos is a renowned poet, translator, critic and one of the founding members of Brazilian Concrete Poetry movement. Since the 1950s he has produced a consistent body of translated poetry from English-speaking poets in which the translator has explored creative translation processes – transcreation, as concrete poets have named it. Campos’s translation project regarding E. E. Cummings’s poetry comprehends a span of forty years: it begins in 1956 with 10 poems and unfolds in 4 works – 20 poem(a)s, 40 poem(a)s, Poem(a)s, re-edited in 2011. His translations of Dickinson’s poetry are published in two works: O Anticrítico (1986), in which he translated 10 poems, and Emily Dickinson Não sou Ninguém (2008), in which the poet-translator added 35 more translated poems. Both projects feature bilingual editions: contrary to common sense, Campos translations aim at being read as such: the target readers, to fully enjoy the experience, must be proficient readers of English and, also, acquainted with the poets in translation – Campos expects us to perform translation criticism, as Antoine Berman has proposed, by assessing the choices he, as both translator and poet, has presented in order to privilege aesthetic information (verse lines, word games, etc.). To readers not proficient in English, his translations play a pedagogycal role of educating and preparing them to read both the target poet works as well as concrete poetry works – the detailed essays and prefaces in which the translator emphasizes the selection of works translated and strategies adopted enlighten his project as translator: for Cummings, it has led to the oblieraton of the more traditional and lyrical/romantic examples of his poetry while highlighting the more experimental aspects and poems; for Dickinson, his project has highligthed the more hermetic traits of her poems. To the domestic canons of both poets in Brazilian literary system, we analyze Campos’ contribution in this work.

Keywords: translation criticism, Augusto de Campos, E. E. Cummings, Emily Dickinson

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Authors: Lizmol Mathew, Divya Thomas, Shiney Rajan

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Educational paradigm all over the globe is undergoing significant reform today. Because of this, so-called flipped classroom model is becoming increasingly popular in higher education. Flipped classroom has proved to be more effective than traditional lecture based model as flipped classroom model promotes active learning by encouraging students to work on in collaborative tasks and peer-led learning during the class-time. However, success of flipped classrooms relies on students’ ability and their attitudes towards collaboration and group work. This paper examines: 1) Students’ attitudes towards collaborative learning; 2) Main challenges to successful collaboration from students’ experience and 3) Students’ perception of criteria for successful team work. 4) Recommendations for enhancing collaborative learning. This study’s methodology involves quantitative analysis of surveys collected from students enrolled in undergraduate Architecture program at Qatar University. Analysis indicates that in general students enrolled in the program do not have positive perceptions or experiences associated with group work. Positive and negative factors that influence collaborative learning in higher education have been identified. Recommendations for improving collaborative work experience have been proposed.

Keywords: architecture, collaborative learning, female, group work, higher education, Middle East, Qatar, student experience

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Authors: Md Imtiaz, Sanchita Dei, Shubham Damke

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In recent years, there has been a rapidly accelerating shift from traditional surface processing operations to subsea processing operation. This shift has been driven by a number of factors including the depletion of shallow fields around the world, technological advances in subsea processing equipment, the need for production from marginal fields, and lower initial upfront investment costs compared to traditional production facilities. Moving production facilities to the seafloor offers a number of advantage, including a reduction in field development costs, increased production rates from subsea wells, reduction in the need for chemical injection, minimization of risks to worker ,reduction in spills due to hurricane damage, and increased in oil production by enabling production from marginal fields. Subsea processing consists of a range of technologies for separation, pumping, compression that enables production from offshore well without the need for surface facilities. At present, there are two primary technologies being used for subsea processing: subsea multiphase pumping and subsea separation. Multiphase pumping is the most basic subsea processing technology. Multiphase pumping involves the use of boosting system to transport the multiphase mixture through pipelines to floating production vessels. The separation system is combined with single phase pumps or water would be removed and either pumped to the surface, re-injected, or discharged to the sea. Subsea processing can allow for an entire topside facility to be decommissioned and the processed fluids to be tied back to a new, more distant, host. This type of application reduces costs and increased both overall facility and integrity and recoverable reserve. In future, full subsea processing could be possible, thereby eliminating the need for surface facilities.

Keywords: FPSO, marginal field, Subsea processing, SWAG

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Authors: Mirza Mohibulla Baig, Imil Hamda Imran, Tri Bagus Susilo, Sami El Ferik

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The paper deals with system identification and control a nonlinear model of semi-autonomous underwater vehicle (UUV). The input-output data is first generated using the experimental values of the model parameters and then this data is used to compute the estimated parameter values. In this study, we use the semi-autonomous UUV LAURS model, which is developed by the Sensors and Actuators Laboratory in University of Sao Paolo. We applied three methods to identify the parameters: integral method, which is a classical least square method, recursive least square, and weighted recursive least square. In this paper, we also apply three different inputs (step input, sine wave input and random input) to each identification method. After the identification stage, we investigate the control performance of yaw motion of nonlinear semi-autonomous Unmanned Underwater Vehicle (UUV) using feedback linearization-based controller. In addition, we compare the performance of the control with an integral and a non-integral part along with state feedback. Finally, disturbance rejection and resilience of the controller is tested. The results demonstrate the ability of the system to recover from such fault.

Keywords: system identification, underwater vehicle, integral method, recursive least square, weighted recursive least square, feedback linearization, integral error

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Authors: Claudia Matassa, Matthias Hohne, Dominic Ormerod, Yamini Satyawali

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Chiral amines integrate the backbone of several active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) used in modern medicine for the treatment of a vast range of diseases. Despite the demand, their synthesis remains challenging. Besides a range of chemicals and enzymatical methods, chiral amine synthesis using transaminases (EC 2.6.1.W) represents a useful alternative to access this important class of compounds. Even though transaminases exhibit excellent stereo and regioselectivity and the potential for high yield, the reaction suffers from a number of challenges, including the thermodynamic equilibrium, product inhibition, and low substrate solubility. In this work, we demonstrate a membrane assisted strategy for addressing these challenges. It involves the use of high molecular weight (HMW) amine donors for the transaminase-catalyzed synthesis of 4-phenyl-2-butylamine in both aqueous and organic solvent media. In contrast to common amine donors such as alanine or isopropylamine, these large molecules, provided in excess for thermodynamic equilibrium shifting, are easily retained by commercial nanofiltration membranes; thus a selective permeation of the desired smaller product amine is possible. The enzymatic transamination in aqueous media, combined with selective product removal shifted the equilibrium enhancing substrate conversion by an additional 25% compared to the control reaction. Along with very efficient amine product removal, there was undesirable loss of ketone substrate and low product concentration was achieved. The system was therefore further improved by performing the reaction in organic solvent (n-heptane). Coupling the reaction system with membrane-assisted product removal resulted in a highly concentrated and relatively pure ( > 97%) product solution. Moreover, a product yield of 60% was reached, compared to 15% without product removal.

Keywords: amine donor, chiral amines, in situ product removal, transamination

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Authors: Sujoy Das, M. M. Ghosh

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The thermal conductivity of a fluid can be significantly enhanced by dispersing nano-sized particles in it, and the resultant fluid is termed as "nanofluid". A theoretical model for estimating the thermal conductivity of a nanofluid has been proposed here. It is based on the mechanism that evenly dispersed nanoparticles within a nanofluid undergo Brownian motion in course of which the nanoparticles repeatedly collide with the heat source. During each collision a rapid heat transfer occurs owing to the solid-solid contact. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation of the collision of nanoparticles with the heat source has shown that there is a pulse-like pick up of heat by the nanoparticles within 20-100 ps, the extent of which depends not only on thermal conductivity of the nanoparticles, but also on the elastic and other physical properties of the nanoparticle. After the collision the nanoparticles undergo Brownian motion in the base fluid and release the excess heat to the surrounding base fluid within 2-10 ms. The Brownian motion and associated temperature variation of the nanoparticles have been modeled by stochastic analysis. Repeated occurrence of these events by the suspended nanoparticles significantly contributes to the characteristic thermal conductivity of the nanofluids, which has been estimated by the present model for a ethylene glycol based nanofluid containing Cu-nanoparticles of size ranging from 8 to 20 nm, with Gaussian size distribution. The prediction of the present model has shown a reasonable agreement with the experimental data available in literature.

Keywords: brownian dynamics, molecular dynamics, nanofluid, thermal conductivity

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Authors: Shuja Alharbi

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Oil and Gas industry has many applications considered as toxic or hazardous, where process fluid leakage is not permitted and leads to health, safety, and environmental impacts. Caustic/Acidic applications, High Benzene Concentrations, Hydrogen sulfide rich oil/gas as well as liquids operating above their auto-ignition temperatures are examples of such liquids that pose as a risk to the industry operation, and for those, special arrangements are in place to allow for the safe operation environment. Pumps in the industry requires special attention, specifically in the interface between the fluid and the environment, where the potential of leakages are foreseen. Mechanical Seals are used to contain the fluid within the equipment, but the prices are ever increasing for such seals, along with maintenance, design, and operating requirements. Several alternatives to seals are being employed nowadays, such as Sealless systems, which is hermitically sealed from the atmosphere and does not require sealing. This technology is considered relatively new and requires more studies to understand the limitations and factors associated from an owner and design perspective. Things like financial factors, maintenance factors, and design limitation should be studies further in order to have a mature and reliable technical solution available to end users.

Keywords: pump, sealless, selection, failure

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Authors: Gashaw Gismu Chakilu

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Climate and land cover change are very important issues in terms of global context and their responses to environmental and socio-economic drivers. The dynamic of these two factors is currently affecting the environment in unbalanced way including watershed hydrology. In this paper individual and combined impacts of climate change and land use land cover change on hydrological processes were evaluated through applying the model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Gumara watershed, Upper Blue Nile basin Ethiopia. The regional climate; temperature and rainfall data of the past 40 years in the study area were prepared and changes were detected by using trend analysis applying Mann-Kendall trend test. The land use land cover data were obtained from land sat image and processed by ERDAS IMAGIN 2010 software. Three land use land cover data; 1973, 1986, and 2013 were prepared and these data were used for base line, model calibration and change study respectively. The effects of these changes on high flow and low flow of the catchment have also been evaluated separately. The high flow of the catchment for these two decades was analyzed by using Annual Maximum (AM) model and the low flow was evaluated by seven day sustained low flow model. Both temperature and rainfall showed increasing trend; and then the extent of changes were evaluated in terms of monthly bases by using two decadal time periods; 1973-1982 was taken as baseline and 2004-2013 was used as change study. The efficiency of the model was determined by Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) and Relative Volume error (RVe) and their values were 0.65 and 0.032 for calibration and 0.62 and 0.0051 for validation respectively. The impact of climate change was higher than that of land use land cover change on stream flow of the catchment; the flow has been increasing by 16.86% and 7.25% due to climate and LULC change respectively, and the combined change effect accounted 22.13% flow increment. The overall results of the study indicated that Climate change is more responsible for high flow than low flow; and reversely the land use land cover change showed more significant effect on low flow than high flow of the catchment. From the result we conclude that the hydrology of the catchment has been altered because of changes of climate and land cover of the study area.

Keywords: climate, LULC, SWAT, Ethiopia

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Authors: Mohammad Namazi, Mohammad Sadeghzadeh Maharluie

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Predicting earnings management is vital for the capital market participants, financial analysts and managers. The aim of this research is attempting to respond to this query: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and neural networks’ models in predicting earnings management, and which one leads to a superior prediction of it? In approaching this question, a Linear Regression (LR) model was compared with two neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN). The population of this study includes 94 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2003 to 2011. After the results of all models were acquired, ANOVA was exerted to test the hypotheses. In general, the summary of statistical results showed that the precision of GRNN did not exhibit a significant difference in comparison with MLP. In addition, the mean square error of the MLP and GRNN showed a significant difference with the multi variable LR model. These findings support the notion of nonlinear behavior of the earnings management. Therefore, it is more appropriate for capital market participants to analyze earnings management based upon neural networks techniques, and not to adopt linear regression models.

Keywords: earnings management, generalized linear regression, neural networks multi-layer perceptron, Tehran stock exchange

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Authors: Faiz Khan Mohammad, Saumya Ray Chaudhari, Raghunathan Rengaswamy, Swagatika Sahoo

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Cholera caused by pathogenic gut bacteria Vibrio Cholerae (VC), is a major health problem in developing countries. Different strains of VC exhibit variable responses subject to different extracellular medium (Nag et al, Infect Immun, 2018). In this study, we present a new approach to model the variable VC responses in mono- and co-cultures, subject to continuously changing growth medium, which is otherwise difficult via simple FBA model. Nine VC strain and seven E. coli (EC) models were assembled and considered. A continuously changing medium is modelled using a new iterative-based controlled medium technique (ITC). The medium is appropriately prefixed with the VC model secretome. As the flux through the bacteria biomass increases secretes certain by-products. These products shall add-on to the medium, either deviating the nutrient potential or block certain metabolic components of the model, effectively forming a controlled feed-back loop. Different VC models were setup as monoculture of VC in glucose enriched medium, and in co-culture with VC strains and EC. Constrained to glucose enriched medium, (i) VC_Classical model resulted in higher flux through acidic secretome suggesting a pH change of the medium, leading to lowering of its biomass. This is in consonance with the literature reports. (ii) When compared for neutral secretome, flux through acetoin exchange was higher in VC_El tor than the classical models, suggesting El tor requires an acidic partner to lower its biomass. (iii) Seven of nine VC models predicted 3-methyl-2-Oxovaleric acid, mysirtic acid, folic acid, and acetate significantly affect corresponding biomass reactions. (iv) V. parhemolyticus and vulnificus were found to be phenotypically similar to VC Classical strain, across the nine VC strains. The work addresses the advantage of the ITC over regular flux balance analysis for modelling varying growth medium. Future expansion to co-cultures, potentiates the identification of novel interacting partners as effective cholera therapeutics.

Keywords: cholera, vibrio cholera El. tor, vibrio cholera classical, acetate

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Authors: Parker Murray, Marci Johnson, Tyson S. Burnham, Alina K. Fong, Mark D. Allen, Bruce McIff

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Purpose: Pathological dysregulation of Neurovascular Coupling (NVC) caused by mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) is the predominant source of chronic post-concussion syndrome (PCS) symptomology. fNCI has the ability to localize dysregulation in NVC by measuring blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) signaling during the performance of fMRI-adapted neuropsychological evaluations. With fNCI, 57 brain areas consistently affected by concussion were identified as PCS neural markers, which were validated on large samples of concussion patients and healthy controls. These neuromarkers provide the basis for a computation of PCS severity which is referred to as the Severity Index Score (SIS). The SIS has proven valuable in making pre-treatment decisions, monitoring treatment efficiency, and assessing long-term stability of outcomes. Methods and Materials: After being scanned while performing various cognitive tasks, 476 concussed patients received an SIS score based on the neural dysregulation of the 57 previously identified brain regions. These scans provide an objective measurement of attentional, subcortical, visual processing, language processing, and executive functioning abilities, which were used as biomarkers for post-concussive neural dysregulation. Initial SIS scores were used to develop individualized therapy incorporating cognitive, occupational, and neuromuscular modalities. These scores were also used to establish pre-treatment benchmarks and measure post-treatment improvement. Results: Changes in SIS were calculated in percent change from pre- to post-treatment. Patients showed a mean improvement of 76.5 percent (σ= 23.3), and 75.7 percent of patients showed at least 60 percent improvement. Longitudinal reassessment of 24 of the patients, measured an average of 7.6 months post-treatment, shows that SIS improvement is maintained and improved, with an average of 90.6 percent improvement from their original scan. Conclusions: fNCI provides a reliable measurement of NVC allowing for identification of concussion pathology. Additionally, fNCI derived SIS scores direct tailored therapy to restore NVC, subsequently resolving chronic PCS resulting from mTBI.

Keywords: concussion, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), neurovascular coupling (NVC), post-concussion syndrome (PCS)

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Authors: Cheong Hyeon Oh, Dongho Nam, Byungsik Kim

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Due to the recent climate change, flood damage caused by local floods and typhoons has frequently occurred, the incidence rate and intensity of wildfires are greatly increased due to increased temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Wildfires cause primary damage, such as loss of forest resources, as well as secondary disasters, such as landslides, floods, and debris flow. In many countries around the world, damage and economic losses from secondary damage are occurring as well as the direct effects of forest fires. Therefore, in this study, the Rainfall-Runoff model(S-RAT) was used for the wildfire affected areas in Gangneung and Goseong, which occurred on April 2019, when the stability of vegetation and soil were destroyed by wildfires. Rainfall data from Typhoon Rusa were used in the S-RAT model, and flood discharge was calculated according to changes in land cover before and after wildfire damage. The results of the calculation showed that flood discharge increased significantly due to changes in land cover, as the increase in flood discharge increases the possibility of the occurrence of the debris flow and the extent of the damage, the debris flow height and range were calculated before and after forest fire using RAMMS. The analysis results showed that the height and extent of damage increased after wildfire, but the result value was underestimated due to the characteristics that using DEM and maximum flood discharge of the RAMMS model. This research was supported by a grant(2017-MOIS31-004) from Fundamental Technology Development Program for Extreme Disaster Response funded by Korean Ministry of Interior and Safety (MOIS). This paper work (or document) was financially supported by Ministry of the Interior and Safety as 'Human resoure development Project in Disaster management'.

Keywords: wildfire, debris flow, land cover, rainfall-runoff meodel S-RAT, RAMMS, height

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Authors: Jose D. Herrera, Mario A. Rios

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This paper deals with the coordinated tuning of the Power System Stabilizer (PSS) controller and Power Oscillation Damping (POD) Controller of Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) in a multi-machine power systems. The coordinated tuning is based on the critical eigenvalues of the power system and a model reduction technique where the Hankel Singular Value method is applied. Through the linearized system model and the parameter-constrained nonlinear optimization algorithm, it can compute the parameters of both controllers. Moreover, the parameters are optimized simultaneously obtaining the gains of both controllers. Then, the nonlinear simulation to observe the time response of the controller is performed.

Keywords: electromechanical oscillations, power system stabilizers, power oscillation damping, hankel singular values

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Authors: Nabilah Filzah Mohd Radzuan, Andi Putra, Zalinda Othman, Azuraliza Abu Bakar, Abdul Razak Hamdan

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Precipitation forecast is important to avoid natural disaster incident which can cause losses in the involved area. This paper reviews three techniques logistic regression, decision tree, and random forest which are used in making precipitation forecast. These combination techniques through the vector auto-regression (VAR) model help in finding the advantages and strengths of each technique in the forecast process. The data-set contains variables of the rain’s domain. Adaptation of artificial intelligence techniques involved in rain domain enables the forecast process to be easier and systematic for precipitation forecast.

Keywords: logistic regression, decisions tree, random forest, VAR model

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Authors: Muhammad Heikal Ismail, Law Chung Lim, Hii Ching Lik

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In maintaining food quality and shelf life, drying is employed in food industry as the most reliable perseverance technique. In this way, heat pump drying and hot air drying of fresh rice noodles was deduced to freeze drying in achieving quality attributes of oil content Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) images, texture, and colour. Soxthlet analysis shows freeze dried noodles contain more than 10 times oil content, distinct pores of SEM images, higher hardness by more than three times, and wider colour changes by average more than two times to both methods to explain the less transparency physical outlook of freeze dried samples.

Keywords: freeze drying, heat pump drying, noodles, Soxthlet

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Authors: I. Dumand, C. Clesse, M. Decker, C. Savini, J. Lighezzolo-Alnot

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In the landscape of French psychiatry, long-term institutionalization of patients with severe and disabling chronics disorders is common. Faced with the failures of classical reinsertion, sometimes these users are hurriedly considered as 'insortables'. However, this representation is often swayed by the current behavior of the patient observed through the clinical observation. Unfortunately, it seems that this way of proceeding can not integrate the potentialities of the institutionalized patients and their possible evolution. Therefore, in order not to make hasty conclusions about the life perspectives of these individuals, it seems essential to associate with clinical observation a psycho social rehabilitation diagnosis. Multidisciplinary, it combine all the aspects that make up the life of the subject (the life aspirations, psycho social determinants, family support, cognitive potential, symptoms ...). In this paper, we will rank these different aspects necessary prerequisites to the realization of a psycho social rehabilitation diagnosis. Then, we will specifically speak of the issue of psychological evaluation. By adopting an integrative approach combining neuro psychological tools (Grober and Buschke, Stroop, WCST, AIPSS, WAIS, Eyes test ...) and projective tools interpreted under a psycho dynamic angle (Rorschach, TAT ..) we think that we can grasp the patient in his globality. Thus, during this process we will justify the interest of combining a cognitive and a psycho affective approach, we will identify the different items assessed and their future implications on the everyday life of the users. Finally, we show that this diagnosis can give a chance to reintegration to 30% of patients considered as ''insortables''. In conclusion, we will highlight the importance of this process dear to the community psychology emphasizing in the same time the interests of this approach in terms of empowerment, recovery and quality of life.

Keywords: assessment, potentiality, psychosocial rehabilitation diagnosis, tools

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Authors: Levent Basayigit, Sinan Demir, Yusuf Ucar, Burhan Kara

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Many research projects require accurate delineation of the different land cover type of the agricultural area. Especially it is critically important for the definition of specific plants like cannabis. However, the complexity of vegetation stands structure, abundant vegetation species, and the smooth transition between different seconder section stages make vegetation classification difficult when using traditional approaches such as the maximum likelihood classifier. Most of the time, classification distinguishes only between trees/annual or grain. It has been difficult to accurately determine the cannabis mixed with other plants. In this paper, a mixed distribution models approach is applied to classify pure and mix cannabis parcels using Worldview-2 imagery in the Lakes region of Turkey. Five different land use types (i.e. sunflower, maize, bare soil, and cannabis) were identified in the image. A constrained Gaussian mixture discriminant analysis (GMDA) was used to unmix the image. In the study, 255 reflectance ratios derived from spectral signatures of seven bands (Blue-Green-Yellow-Red-Rededge-NIR1-NIR2) were randomly arranged as 80% for training and 20% for test data. Gaussian mixed distribution model approach is proved to be an effective and convenient way to combine very high spatial resolution imagery for distinguishing cannabis vegetation. Based on the overall accuracies of the classification, the Gaussian mixed distribution model was found to be very successful to achieve image classification tasks. This approach is sensitive to capture the illegal cannabis planting areas in the large plain. This approach can also be used for monitoring and determination with spectral reflections in illegal cannabis planting areas.

Keywords: Gaussian mixture discriminant analysis, spectral mixture model, Worldview-2, land parcels

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Authors: P. M. Kundu, L. R. Singo, J. O. Odiyo

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Luvuvhu River catchment in South Africa experiences floods resulting from heavy rainfall of intensities exceeding 15 mm per hour associated with the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The generation of runoff is triggered by the rainfall intensity and soil moisture status. In this study, remote sensing and GIS techniques were used to analyze the hydrologic response to land cover changes. Runoff was calculated as a product of the net precipitation and a curve number coefficient. It was then routed using the Muskingum-Cunge method using a diffusive wave transfer model that enabled the calculation of response functions between start and end point. Flood frequency analysis was determined using theoretical probability distributions. Spatial data on land cover was obtained from multi-temporal Landsat images while data on rainfall, soil type, runoff and stream discharges was obtained by direct measurements in the field and from the Department of Water. A digital elevation model was generated from contour maps available at http://www.ngi.gov.za. The results showed that land cover changes had impacted negatively to the hydrology of the catchment. Peak discharges in the whole catchment were noted to have increased by at least 17% over the period while flood volumes were noted to have increased by at least 11% over the same period. The flood time to peak indicated a decreasing trend, in the range of 0.5 to 1 hour within the years. The synergism between remotely sensed digital data and GIS for land surface analysis and modeling was realized, and it was therefore concluded that hydrologic modeling has potential for determining the influence of changes in land cover on the hydrologic response of the catchment.

Keywords: catchment, digital elevation model, hydrological model, routing, runoff

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Authors: Ayodeji Oluleye

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This study used Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Aerosol Index (AI) and reanalysis dataset of thirty years (1983-2012) to investigate the influence of the atmospheric circulation on dust transport during the Harmattan period over WestAfrica using TOMS data. The Harmattan dust mobilization and atmospheric circulation pattern were evaluated using a kernel density estimate which shows the areas where most points are concentrated between the variables. The evolution of the Inter-Tropical Discontinuity (ITD), Sea surface Temperature (SST) over the Gulf of Guinea, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index during the Harmattan period (November-March) was also analyzed and graphs of the average ITD positions, SST and the NAO were observed on daily basis. The Pearson moment correlation analysis was also employed to assess the effect of atmospheric circulation on Harmattan dust transport. The results show that the departure (increased) of TOMS AI values from the long-term mean (1.64) occurred from around 21st of December, which signifies the rich dust days during winter period. Strong TOMS AI signal were observed from January to March with the maximum occurring in the latter months (February and March). The inter-annual variability of TOMSAI revealed that the rich dust years were found between 1984-1985, 1987-1988, 1997-1998, 1999-2000, and 2002-2004. Significantly, poor dust year was found between 2005 and 2006 in all the periods. The study has found strong north-easterly (NE) trade winds were over most of the Sahelianregion of West Africa during the winter months with the maximum wind speed reaching 8.61m/s inJanuary.The strength of NE winds determines the extent of dust transport to the coast of Gulf of Guinea during winter. This study has confirmed that the presence of the Harmattan is strongly dependent on theSST over Atlantic Ocean and ITD position. The locus of the average SST and ITD positions over West Africa could be described by polynomial functions. The study concludes that the evolution of near surface wind field at 925 hpa, and the variations of SST and ITD positions are the major large scale atmospheric circulation systems driving the emission, distribution, and transport of Harmattan dust aerosols over West Africa. However, the influence of NAO was shown to have fewer significance effects on the Harmattan dust transport over the region.

Keywords: atmospheric circulation, dust aerosols, Harmattan, West Africa

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Authors: J. O. Ayinde, S. O. Olatunji

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This study assessed rural youth adoption of cassava production technologies in Southwestern, Nigeria. Specifically, it examine the level of awareness and adoption of cassava production technologies by rural youth, determined the extent of usage of cassava production technologies available to the rural youth, examined constrains to the adoption of cassava production technologies by youth and suggested possible solutions. Multistage sampling procedure was adopted for the study. In the first stage, two states were purposively selected in southwest, Nigeria which are Osun and Oyo states due to high level of cassava production and access to cassava production technology in the areas. In the second stage, purposive sampling technique was used to select two local governments each from the states selected which are Ibarapa central (Igbo-Ora) and Ibarapa East (Eruwa) Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Oyo state; and Ife North (Ipetumodu) and Ede South (Oke Ireesi) LGAs in Osun State. In the third stage, proportionate sampling technique was used to randomly select five, four, six and four communities from the selected LGAs respectively representing 20 percent of the rural communities in them, in all 19 communities were selected. In the fourth stage, Snow ball sampling technique was used to select about 7 rural youths in each community selected to make a total of 133 respondents. Validated structured interview schedule was used to elicit information from the respondents. The data collected were analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics to summarize and test the hypotheses of the study. The results show that the average age of rural youths participating in cassava production in the study area is 29 ± 2.6 years and 60 percent aged between 30 and 35 years. Also, more male (67.4 %) were involved in cassava production than females (32.6 %). The result also reveals that the average size of farm land of the respondents is 2.5 ± 0.3 hectares. Also, more male (67.4 %) were involved in cassava production than females (32.6 %). Also, extent of usage of the technologies (r = 0.363, p ≤ 0.01) shows significant relationship with level of adoption of the technologies. Household size (b = 0.183; P ≤ 0.01) and membership of social organizations were significant at 0.01 (b = 0.331; P ≤ 0.01) while age was significant at 0.10 (b = 0.097; P ≤ 0.05). On the other hand 0.01, years of residence (b = - 0.063; P ≤ 0.01) and income (b = - 0.204; P ≤ 0.01) had negative values and implies that a unit increase in each of these variables would decrease extent of usage of the Cassava production technologies. It was concluded that the extent of usage of the technologies in the communities will affect the rate of adoption positively and this will change the negative perception of youths on cassava production thereby ensure food security in the study area.

Keywords: assessment, rural youths’, Cassava production technologies, agricultural production, food security

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