Search results for: time series generation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 22466

Search results for: time series generation

21746 Data Augmentation for Automatic Graphical User Interface Generation Based on Generative Adversarial Network

Authors: Xulu Yao, Moi Hoon Yap, Yanlong Zhang

Abstract:

As a branch of artificial neural network, deep learning is widely used in the field of image recognition, but the lack of its dataset leads to imperfect model learning. By analysing the data scale requirements of deep learning and aiming at the application in GUI generation, it is found that the collection of GUI dataset is a time-consuming and labor-consuming project, which is difficult to meet the needs of current deep learning network. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a semi-supervised deep learning model that relies on the original small-scale datasets to produce a large number of reliable data sets. By combining the cyclic neural network with the generated countermeasure network, the cyclic neural network can learn the sequence relationship and characteristics of data, make the generated countermeasure network generate reasonable data, and then expand the Rico dataset. Relying on the network structure, the characteristics of collected data can be well analysed, and a large number of reasonable data can be generated according to these characteristics. After data processing, a reliable dataset for model training can be formed, which alleviates the problem of dataset shortage in deep learning.

Keywords: GUI, deep learning, GAN, data augmentation

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21745 A Method to Compute Efficient 3D Helicopters Flight Trajectories Based On a Motion Polymorph-Primitives Algorithm

Authors: Konstanca Nikolajevic, Nicolas Belanger, David Duvivier, Rabie Ben Atitallah, Abdelhakim Artiba

Abstract:

Finding the optimal 3D path of an aerial vehicle under flight mechanics constraints is a major challenge, especially when the algorithm has to produce real-time results in flight. Kinematics models and Pythagorian Hodograph curves have been widely used in mobile robotics to solve this problematic. The level of difficulty is mainly driven by the number of constraints to be saturated at the same time while minimizing the total length of the path. In this paper, we suggest a pragmatic algorithm capable of saturating at the same time most of dimensioning helicopter 3D trajectories’ constraints like: curvature, curvature derivative, torsion, torsion derivative, climb angle, climb angle derivative, positions. The trajectories generation algorithm is able to generate versatile complex 3D motion primitives feasible by a helicopter with parameterization of the curvature and the climb angle. An upper ”motion primitives’ concatenation” algorithm is presented based. In this article we introduce a new way of designing three-dimensional trajectories based on what we call the ”Dubins gliding symmetry conjecture”. This extremely performing algorithm will be soon integrated to a real-time decisional system dealing with inflight safety issues.

Keywords: robotics, aerial robots, motion primitives, helicopter

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21744 Study the Effect of Roughness on the Higher Order Moment to Extract Information about the Turbulent Flow Structure in an Open Channel Flow

Authors: Md Abdullah Al Faruque, Ram Balachandar

Abstract:

The present study was carried out to understand the extent of effect of roughness and Reynolds number in open channel flow (OCF). To this extent, four different types of bed surface conditions consisting smooth, distributed roughness, continuous roughness, natural sand bed and two different Reynolds number for each bed surfaces were adopted in this study. Particular attention was given on mean velocity, turbulence intensity, Reynolds shear stress, correlation, higher order moments and quadrant analysis. Further, the extent of influence of roughness and Reynolds number in the depth-wise direction also studied. Increasing Reynolds shear stress near rough beds are noticed due to arrays of discrete roughness elements and flow over these elements generating a series of wakes which contributes to the generation of significantly higher Reynolds shear stress.

Keywords: bed roughness, ejection and sweep, open channel flow, Reynolds shear stress, turbulent boundary layer, velocity triple product

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21743 Apply Commitment Method in Power System to Minimize the Fuel Cost

Authors: Mohamed Shaban, Adel Yahya

Abstract:

The goal of this paper study is to schedule the power generation units to minimize fuel consumption cost based on a model that solves unit commitment problems. This can be done by utilizing forward dynamic programming method to determine the most economic scheduling of generating units. The model was applied to a power station, which consists of four generating units. The obtained results show that the applications of forward dynamic programming method offer a substantial reduction in fuel consumption cost. The fuel consumption cost has been reduced from $116,326 to $102,181 within a 24-hour period. This means saving about 12.16 % of fuel consumption cost. The study emphasizes the importance of applying modeling schedule programs to the operation of power generation units. As a consequence less consumption of fuel, less loss of power and less pollution

Keywords: unit commitment, forward dynamic, fuel cost, programming, generation scheduling, operation cost, power system, generating units

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21742 A Comparative Study of Regional Climate Models and Global Coupled Models over Uttarakhand

Authors: Sudip Kumar Kundu, Charu Singh

Abstract:

As a great physiographic divide, the Himalayas affecting a large system of water and air circulation which helps to determine the climatic condition in the Indian subcontinent to the south and mid-Asian highlands to the north. It creates obstacles by defending chill continental air from north side into India in winter and also defends rain-bearing southwesterly monsoon to give up maximum precipitation in that area in monsoon season. Nowadays extreme weather conditions such as heavy precipitation, cloudburst, flash flood, landslide and extreme avalanches are the regular happening incidents in the region of North Western Himalayan (NWH). The present study has been planned to investigate the suitable model(s) to find out the rainfall pattern over that region. For this investigation, selected models from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) has been utilized in a consistent framework for the period of 1976 to 2000 (historical). The ability of these driving models from CORDEX domain and CMIP5 has been examined according to their capability of the spatial distribution as well as time series plot of rainfall over NWH in the rainy season and compared with the ground-based Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data set. It is noted from the analysis that the models like MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR from the both CORDEX and CMIP5 provide the best spatial distribution of rainfall over NWH region. But the driving models from CORDEX underestimates the daily rainfall amount as compared to CMIP5 driving models as it is unable to capture daily rainfall data properly when it has been plotted for time series (TS) individually for the state of Uttarakhand (UK) and Himachal Pradesh (HP). So finally it can be said that the driving models from CMIP5 are better than CORDEX domain models to investigate the rainfall pattern over NWH region.

Keywords: global warming, rainfall, CMIP5, CORDEX, NWH

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21741 Solid Waste Characterization and Recycling Potential in Hawassa University, Ethiopia

Authors: Hunachew Beyene Mengesha, Biruck Desalegn Yirsaw

Abstract:

Owing to the dramatic expansion of universities in Ethiopia, understanding the composition and nature of solid waste at the source of generation plays an important role in designing a program for an integrated waste management program. In this study, we report the quantity, quality and recycling potential of the waste generated in the three campuses of the Hawassa University, Southern Ethiopia. A total of 3.5 tons of waste was generated per day in the three campuses of the university. More than 95% of the waste constituents were with potential to be recovered. It was a lesson from the study that there was no source reduction, recycling, composting, proper land filling or incineration practices in-place. The considerably high waste generation associated with the expansion of educational programs in the university appears worthwhile requiring implementation of programs for an integrated solid waste management to minimize health risk to humans and reduce environmental implications as a result of improper handling and disposal of wastes.

Keywords: Hawassa University, integrated solid waste management, solid waste generation, energy management, waste management

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21740 Economical Transformer Selection Implementing Service Lifetime Cost

Authors: Bonginkosi A. Thango, Jacobus A. Jordaan, Agha F. Nnachi

Abstract:

In this day and age, there is a proliferate concern from all governments across the globe to barricade the environment from greenhouse gases, which absorb infrared radiation. As a result, solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity has been an expeditiously growing renewable energy source and will eventually undertake a prominent role in the global energy generation. The selection and purchasing of energy-efficient transformers that meet the operational requirements of the solar photovoltaic energy generation plants then become a part of the Independent Power Producers (IPP’s) investment plan of action. Taking these into account, this paper proposes a procedure that put into effect the intricate financial analysis necessitated to precisely evaluate the transformer service lifetime no-load and load loss factors. This procedure correctly set forth the transformer service lifetime loss factors as a result of a solar PV plant’s sporadic generation profile and related levelized costs of electricity into the computation of the transformer’s total ownership cost. The results are then critically compared with the conventional transformer total ownership cost unaccompanied by the emission costs, and demonstrate the significance of the sporadic energy generation nature of the solar PV plant on the total ownership cost. The findings indicate that the latter play a crucial role for developers and Independent Power Producers (IPP’s) in making the purchase decision during a tender bid where competing offers from different transformer manufactures are evaluated. Additionally, the susceptibility analysis of different factors engrossed in the transformer service lifetime cost is carried out; factors including the levelized cost of electricity, solar PV plant’s generation modes, and the loading profile are examined.

Keywords: solar photovoltaic plant, transformer, total ownership cost, loss factors

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21739 Manufacturing Anomaly Detection Using a Combination of Gated Recurrent Unit Network and Random Forest Algorithm

Authors: Atinkut Atinafu Yilma, Eyob Messele Sefene

Abstract:

Anomaly detection is one of the essential mechanisms to control and reduce production loss, especially in today's smart manufacturing. Quick anomaly detection aids in reducing the cost of production by minimizing the possibility of producing defective products. However, developing an anomaly detection model that can rapidly detect a production change is challenging. This paper proposes Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) combined with Random Forest (RF) to detect anomalies in the production process in real-time quickly. The GRU is used as a feature detector, and RF as a classifier using the input features from GRU. The model was tested using various synthesis and real-world datasets against benchmark methods. The results show that the proposed GRU-RF outperforms the benchmark methods with the shortest time taken to detect anomalies in the production process. Based on the investigation from the study, this proposed model can eliminate or reduce unnecessary production costs and bring a competitive advantage to manufacturing industries.

Keywords: anomaly detection, multivariate time series data, smart manufacturing, gated recurrent unit network, random forest

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21738 FPGA Implementation of a Marginalized Particle Filter for Delineation of P and T Waves of ECG Signal

Authors: Jugal Bhandari, K. Hari Priya

Abstract:

The ECG signal provides important clinical information which could be used to pretend the diseases related to heart. Accordingly, delineation of ECG signal is an important task. Whereas delineation of P and T waves is a complex task. This paper deals with the Study of ECG signal and analysis of signal by means of Verilog Design of efficient filters and MATLAB tool effectively. It includes generation and simulation of ECG signal, by means of real time ECG data, ECG signal filtering and processing by analysis of different algorithms and techniques. In this paper, we design a basic particle filter which generates a dynamic model depending on the present and past input samples and then produces the desired output. Afterwards, the output will be processed by MATLAB to get the actual shape and accurate values of the ranges of P-wave and T-wave of ECG signal. In this paper, Questasim is a tool of mentor graphics which is being used for simulation and functional verification. The same design is again verified using Xilinx ISE which will be also used for synthesis, mapping and bit file generation. Xilinx FPGA board will be used for implementation of system. The final results of FPGA shall be verified with ChipScope Pro where the output data can be observed.

Keywords: ECG, MATLAB, Bayesian filtering, particle filter, Verilog hardware descriptive language

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21737 Quality of Education in Dilla Zone

Authors: Gezahegn Bekele Welldgiyorgise

Abstract:

It is obvious that the economics, politics and social conditions of a country are determined by the quality and standard of its education. Indeed, education plays a vital role in changing the consciousness and awareness of society and transforming it on a large scale. Moreover, education contributes a lot to the advancement of science and technology, information and communication, and above all, it speeds up its progress in no time if it focuses mainly on the qualitative approach to education. Education brings about universal change and transformation and lightens mankind in all dimensions. It creates an educated, enlightened and brightened generation in society. The generation will be sharped, sharpened and well-oriented if it gets modern, sophisticated and standardized education in its field of study. The main goal of education is to produce well-qualified, well-trained and disciplined young offers in a given community. If the youth is well trained and well-mannered, he will certainly be enlightened, problem solvers and solution seekers, researchers, and innovators. In this respect, we have to provide the youth with modern education, a teaching-learning process led by active learning and a participatory approach with a new curriculum preparation for the age of children supported by modern facilities (ICT).In addition to that, the curriculum should have to give attention to mathematics and science lessons that include international experience in a comfortable school and classrooms. Therefore, the generation that will be created through such kinds of the guided education system will make the students active participants, self-confident, researchers and problem solvers, besides that result in changed life standards and a developed country. Similarly, our country, Ethiopia, has aimed to get such change in youth (generation) through modern education, designing a new educational policy and curriculum which was implemented for many years, although the goal of education has not reached the required level. To get the main idea of the article, I should have answered the question of why our country's educational goal had not reached the desired level because it is necessary to lay the foundation for research in finding out problems seen through students learning performance, the first task is selecting primary-school as a sample. Therefore, we selected “Dilla primary school (5-8)” which is a workplace for a teacher and gives me a chance to recognize students’ learning performance to recognize their learning grades (internal and external) and measure performance (achievement) of students easily’.

Keywords: curriculum, performance, innovation, learning

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21736 Downside Risk Analysis of the Nigerian Stock Market: A Value at Risk Approach

Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara

Abstract:

This paper using standard GARCH, EGARCH, and TARCH models on day of the week return series (of 246 days) from the Nigerian Stock market estimated the model variants’ VaR. An asymmetric return distribution and fat-tail phenomenon in financial time series were considered by estimating the models with normal, student t and generalized error distributions. The analysis based on Akaike Information Criterion suggests that the EGARCH model with student t innovation distribution can furnish more accurate estimate of VaR. In the light of this, we apply the likelihood ratio tests of proportional failure rates to VaR derived from EGARCH model in order to determine the short and long positions VaR performances. The result shows that as alpha ranges from 0.05 to 0.005 for short positions, the failure rate significantly exceeds the prescribed quintiles while it however shows no significant difference between the failure rate and the prescribed quantiles for long positions. This suggests that investors and portfolio managers in the Nigeria stock market have long trading position or can buy assets with concern on when the asset prices will fall. Precisely, the VaR estimates for the long position range from -4.7% for 95 percent confidence level to -10.3% for 99.5 percent confidence level.

Keywords: downside risk, value-at-risk, failure rate, kupiec LR tests, GARCH models

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21735 A Mathematical Model of Blood Perfusion Dependent Temperature Distribution in Transient Case in Human Dermal Region

Authors: Yogesh Shukla

Abstract:

Many attempts have been made to study temperature distribution problem in human tissues under normal environmental and physiological conditions at constant arterial blood temperature. But very few attempts have been made to investigate temperature distribution in human tissues under different arterial blood temperature. In view of above, a finite element model has been developed to unsteady temperature distribution in dermal region in human body. The model has been developed for one dimension unsteady state case. The variation in parameters like thermal conductivity, blood mass flow and metabolic activity with respect to position and time has been incorporated in the model. Appropriate boundary conditions have been framed. The central difference approach has been used in space variable and trapezoidal rule has been employed a long time variable. Numerical results have been obtained to study relationship among temperature and time.

Keywords: rate of metabolism, blood mass flow rate, thermal conductivity, heat generation, finite element method

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21734 A Conceptual Study for Investigating the Creation of Energy and Understanding the Properties of Nothing

Authors: Mahmoud Reza Hosseini

Abstract:

The universe is in a continuous expansion process, resulting in the reduction of its density and temperature. Also, by extrapolating back from its current state, the universe at its early times is studied, known as the big bang theory. According to this theory, moments after creation, the universe was an extremely hot and dense environment. However, its rapid expansion due to nuclear fusion led to a reduction in its temperature and density. This is evidenced through the cosmic microwave background and the universe structure at a large scale. However, extrapolating back further from this early state reaches singularity, which cannot be explained by modern physics, and the big bang theory is no longer valid. In addition, one can expect a nonuniform energy distribution across the universe from a sudden expansion. However, highly accurate measurements reveal an equal temperature mapping across the universe, which is contradictory to the big bang principles. To resolve this issue, it is believed that cosmic inflation occurred at the very early stages of the birth of the universe. According to the cosmic inflation theory, the elements which formed the universe underwent a phase of exponential growth due to the existence of a large cosmological constant. The inflation phase allows the uniform distribution of energy so that an equal maximum temperature can be achieved across the early universe. Also, the evidence of quantum fluctuations of this stage provides a means for studying the types of imperfections the universe would begin with. Although well-established theories such as cosmic inflation and the big bang together provide a comprehensive picture of the early universe and how it evolved into its current state, they are unable to address the singularity paradox at the time of universe creation. Therefore, a practical model capable of describing how the universe was initiated is needed. This research series aims at addressing the singularity issue by introducing a state of energy called a "neutral state," possessing an energy level that is referred to as the "base energy." The governing principles of base energy are discussed in detail in our second paper in the series "A Conceptual Study for Addressing the Singularity of the Emerging Universe," which is discussed in detail. To establish a complete picture, the origin of the base energy should be identified and studied. In this research paper, the mechanism which led to the emergence of this natural state and its corresponding base energy is proposed. In addition, the effect of the base energy in the space-time fabric is discussed. Finally, the possible role of the base energy in quantization and energy exchange is investigated. Therefore, the proposed concept in this research series provides a road map for enhancing our understating of the universe's creation from nothing and its evolution and discusses the possibility of base energy as one of the main building blocks of this universe.

Keywords: big bang, cosmic inflation, birth of universe, energy creation, universe evolution

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21733 Double Fourier Series Applied to Supraharmonic Determination: The Specific Cases of a Boost and an Interleaved Boost Converter Used as Active Power Factor Correctors

Authors: Erzen Muharemi, Emmanuel De Jaeger, Jos Knockaert

Abstract:

The work presented here investigates the modeling of power electronics converters in terms of their harmonic production. Specifically, it addresses high-frequency emissions in the range of 2-150 kHz, referred to as supraharmonics. This paper models a conventional converter, namely the boost converter used as an active power factor corrector (APFC). Furthermore, the modeling is extended to the case of the interleaved boost converter, which offers advantages such as halving the emissions. Finally, a comparison between the theoretical, numerical, and experimental results will be provided.

Keywords: APFC, boost converter, converter modeling, double fourier series, supraharmonics

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21732 Real-Time Observation of Concentration Distribution for Mix Liquids including Water in Micro Fluid Channel with Near-Infrared Spectroscopic Imaging Method

Authors: Hiroki Takiguchi, Masahiro Furuya, Takahiro Arai

Abstract:

In order to quantitatively comprehend thermal flow for some industrial applications such as nuclear and chemical reactors, detailed measurements for temperature and abundance (concentration) of materials at high temporal and spatial resolution are required. Additionally, rigorous evaluation of the size effect is also important for practical realization. This paper introduces a real-time spectroscopic imaging method in micro scale field, which visualizes temperature and concentration distribution of a liquid or mix liquids with near-infrared (NIR) wavelength region. This imaging principle is based on absorption of pre-selected narrow band from absorption spectrum peak or its dependence property of target liquid in NIR region. For example, water has a positive temperature sensitivity in the wavelength at 1905 nm, therefore the temperature of water can be measured using the wavelength band. In the experiment, the real-time imaging observation of concentration distribution in micro channel was demonstrated to investigate the applicability of micro-scale diffusion coefficient and temperature measurement technique using this proposed method. The effect of thermal diffusion and binary mutual diffusion was evaluated with the time-series visualizations of concentration distribution.

Keywords: near-infrared spectroscopic imaging, micro fluid channel, concentration distribution, diffusion phenomenon

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21731 Starting Order Eight Method Accurately for the Solution of First Order Initial Value Problems of Ordinary Differential Equations

Authors: James Adewale, Joshua Sunday

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In this paper, we developed a linear multistep method, which is implemented in predictor corrector-method. The corrector is developed by method of collocation and interpretation of power series approximate solutions at some selected grid points, to give a continuous linear multistep method, which is evaluated at some selected grid points to give a discrete linear multistep method. The predictors were also developed by method of collocation and interpolation of power series approximate solution, to give a continuous linear multistep method. The continuous linear multistep method is then solved for the independent solution to give a continuous block formula, which is evaluated at some selected grid point to give discrete block method. Basic properties of the corrector were investigated and found to be zero stable, consistent and convergent. The efficiency of the method was tested on some linear, non-learn, oscillatory and stiff problems of first order, initial value problems of ordinary differential equations. The results were found to be better in terms of computer time and error bound when compared with the existing methods.

Keywords: predictor, corrector, collocation, interpolation, approximate solution, independent solution, zero stable, consistent, convergent

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21730 Increasing System Adequacy Using Integration of Pumped Storage: Renewable Energy to Reduce Thermal Power Generations Towards RE100 Target, Thailand

Authors: Mathuravech Thanaphon, Thephasit Nat

Abstract:

The Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) is focusing on expanding its pumped storage hydropower (PSH) capacity to increase the reliability of the system during peak demand and allow for greater integration of renewables. To achieve this requirement, Thailand will have to double its current renewable electricity production. To address the challenges of balancing supply and demand in the grid with increasing levels of RE penetration, as well as rising peak demand, EGAT has already been studying the potential for additional PSH capacity for several years to enable an increased share of RE and replace existing fossil fuel-fired generation. In addition, the role that pumped-storage hydropower would play in fulfilling multiple grid functions and renewable integration. The proposed sites for new PSH would help increase the reliability of power generation in Thailand. However, most of the electricity generation will come from RE, chiefly wind and photovoltaic, and significant additional Energy Storage capacity will be needed. In this paper, the impact of integrating the PSH system on the adequacy of renewable rich power generating systems to reduce the thermal power generating units is investigated. The variations of system adequacy indices are analyzed for different PSH-renewables capacities and storage levels. Power Development Plan 2018 rev.1 (PDP2018 rev.1), which is modified by integrating a six-new PSH system and RE planning and development aftermath in 2030, is the very challenge. The system adequacy indices through power generation are obtained using Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA) Optimization. MOGA is a probabilistic heuristic and stochastic algorithm that is able to find the global minima, which have the advantage that the fitness function does not necessarily require the gradient. In this sense, the method is more flexible in solving reliability optimization problems for a composite power system. The optimization with hourly time step takes years of planning horizon much larger than the weekly horizon that usually sets the scheduling studies. The objective function is to be optimized to maximize RE energy generation, minimize energy imbalances, and minimize thermal power generation using MATLAB. The PDP2018 rev.1 was set to be simulated based on its planned capacity stepping into 2030 and 2050. Therefore, the four main scenario analyses are conducted as the target of renewables share: 1) Business-As-Usual (BAU), 2) National Targets (30% RE in 2030), 3) Carbon Neutrality Targets (50% RE in 2050), and 5) 100% RE or full-decarbonization. According to the results, the generating system adequacy is significantly affected by both PSH-RE and Thermal units. When a PSH is integrated, it can provide hourly capacity to the power system as well as better allocate renewable energy generation to reduce thermal generations and improve system reliability. These results show that a significant level of reliability improvement can be obtained by PSH, especially in renewable-rich power systems.

Keywords: pumped storage hydropower, renewable energy integration, system adequacy, power development planning, RE100, multi-objective genetic algorithm

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21729 Solution of Some Boundary Value Problems of the Generalized Theory of Thermo-Piezoelectricity

Authors: Manana Chumburidze

Abstract:

We have considered a non-classical model of dynamical problems for a conjugated system of differential equations arising in thermo-piezoelectricity, which was formulated by Toupin – Mindlin. The basic concepts and the general theory of solvability for isotropic homogeneous elastic media is considered. They are worked by using the methods the Laplace integral transform, potential method and singular integral equations. Approximate solutions of mixed boundary value problems for finite domain, bounded by the some closed surface are constructed. They are solved in explicitly by using the generalized Fourier's series method.

Keywords: thermo-piezoelectricity, boundary value problems, Fourier's series, isotropic homogeneous elastic media

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21728 Nonstationary Modeling of Extreme Precipitation in the Wei River Basin, China

Authors: Yiyuan Tao

Abstract:

Under the impact of global warming together with the intensification of human activities, the hydrological regimes may be altered, and the traditional stationary assumption was no longer satisfied. However, most of the current design standards of water infrastructures were still based on the hypothesis of stationarity, which may inevitably result in severe biases. Many critical impacts of climate on ecosystems, society, and the economy are controlled by extreme events rather than mean values. Therefore, it is of great significance to identify the non-stationarity of precipitation extremes and model the precipitation extremes in a nonstationary framework. The Wei River Basin (WRB), located in a continental monsoon climate zone in China, is selected as a case study in this study. Six extreme precipitation indices were employed to investigate the changing patterns and stationarity of precipitation extremes in the WRB. To identify if precipitation extremes are stationary, the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Pettitt test, which is used to examine the occurrence of abrupt changes are adopted in this study. Extreme precipitation indices series are fitted with non-stationary distributions that selected from six widely used distribution functions: Gumbel, lognormal, Weibull, gamma, generalized gamma and exponential distributions by means of the time-varying moments model generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS), where the distribution parameters are defined as a function of time. The results indicate that: (1) the trends were not significant for the whole WRB, but significant positive/negative trends were still observed in some stations, abrupt changes for consecutive wet days (CWD) mainly occurred in 1985, and the assumption of stationarity is invalid for some stations; (2) for these nonstationary extreme precipitation indices series with significant positive/negative trends, the GAMLSS models are able to capture well the temporal variations of the indices, and perform better than the stationary model. Finally, the differences between the quantiles of nonstationary and stationary models are analyzed, which highlight the importance of nonstationary modeling of precipitation extremes in the WRB.

Keywords: extreme precipitation, GAMLSSS, non-stationary, Wei River Basin

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21727 A Comparative Study of the Techno-Economic Performance of the Linear Fresnel Reflector Using Direct and Indirect Steam Generation: A Case Study under High Direct Normal Irradiance

Authors: Ahmed Aljudaya, Derek Ingham, Lin Ma, Kevin Hughes, Mohammed Pourkashanian

Abstract:

Researchers, power companies, and state politicians have given concentrated solar power (CSP) much attention due to its capacity to generate large amounts of electricity whereas overcoming the intermittent nature of solar resources. The Linear Fresnel Reflector (LFR) is a well-known CSP technology type for being inexpensive, having a low land use factor, and suffering from low optical efficiency. The LFR was considered a cost-effective alternative option to the Parabolic Trough Collector (PTC) because of its simplistic design, and this often outweighs its lower efficiency. The LFR has been found to be a promising option for directly producing steam to a thermal cycle in order to generate low-cost electricity, but also it has been shown to be promising for indirect steam generation. The purpose of this important analysis is to compare the annual performance of the Direct Steam Generation (DSG) and Indirect Steam Generation (ISG) of LFR power plants using molten salt and other different Heat Transfer Fluids (HTF) to investigate their technical and economic effects. A 50 MWe solar-only system is examined as a case study for both steam production methods in extreme weather conditions. In addition, a parametric analysis is carried out to determine the optimal solar field size that provides the lowest Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) while achieving the highest technical performance. As a result of optimizing the optimum solar field size, the solar multiple (SM) is found to be between 1.2 – 1.5 in order to achieve as low as 9 Cent/KWh for the direct steam generation of the linear Fresnel reflector. In addition, the power plant is capable of producing around 141 GWh annually and up to 36% of the capacity factor, whereas the ISG produces less energy at a higher cost. The optimization results show that the DSG’s performance overcomes the ISG in producing around 3% more annual energy, 2% lower LCOE, and 28% less capital cost.

Keywords: concentrated solar power, levelized cost of electricity, linear Fresnel reflectors, steam generation

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21726 Software Quality Assurance in 5G Technology-Redefining Wireless Communication: A Comprehensive Survey

Authors: Sumbal Riaz, Sardar-un-Nisa, Mehreen Sirshar

Abstract:

5G - The 5th generation of mobile phone and data communication standards is the next edge of innovation for whole mobile industry. 5G is Real Wireless World System and it will provide a totally wireless communication system all over the world without limitations. 5G uses many 4g technologies and it will hit the market in 2020. This research is the comprehensive survey on the quality parameters of 5G technology.5G provide High performance, Interoperability, easy roaming, fully converged services, friendly interface and scalability at low cost. To meet the traffic demands in future fifth generation wireless communications systems will include i) higher densification of heterogeneous networks with massive deployment of small base stations supporting various Radio Access Technologies (RATs), ii) use of massive Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO) arrays, iii) use of millimetre Wave spectrum where larger wider frequency bands are available, iv) direct device to device (D2D) communication, v) simultaneous transmission and reception, vi) cognitive radio technology.

Keywords: 5G, 5th generation, innovation, standard, wireless communication

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21725 Leadership and Whether It Stems from Innate Abilities or from Situation

Authors: Salwa Abdelbaki

Abstract:

This research investigated how leaders develop, asking whether they have been leaders due to their innate abilities or they gain leadership characteristics through interactions based on requirements of a situation. If the first is true, then a leader should be successful in any situation. Otherwise, a leader may succeed only in a specific situation. A series of experiments were carried out on three groups including of males and females. First; a group of 148 students with different specializations had to select a leader. Another group of 51 students had to recall their previous experiences and their knowledge of each other to identify who were leaders in different situations. Then a series of analytic tools were applied to the identified leaders and to the whole groups to find out how leaders were developed. A group of 40 young children was also experimented with to find young leaders among them and to analyze their characteristics.

Keywords: leadership, innate characteristics, situation, leadership theories

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21724 Strabismus Management in Retinoblastoma Survivors

Authors: Babak Masoomian, Masoud Khorrami Nejad, Hamid Riazi Esfahani

Abstract:

Purpose: To report the result of strabismus surgery in eye-salvaged retinoblastoma (Rb) patients. Methods: A retrospective case series including 18 patients with Rb and strabismus who underwent strabismus surgery after completing tumor treatment by a single pediatric ophthalmologist. Results: A total of 18 patients (10 females and 8 males) were included with a mean age of 13.3 ± 3.0 (range, 2-39) months at the time tumor presentation and 6.0 ± 1.5 (range, 4-9) years at the time of strabismus surgery. Ten (56%) patients had unilateral, and 8(44%) had bilateral involvement, and the most common worse eye tumor’s group was D (n=11), C (n=4), B (n=2) and E (n=1). Macula was involved by the tumors in 12 (67%) patients. The tumors were managed by intravenous chemotherapy (n=8, 47%), intra-arterial chemotherapy (n=7, 41%) and both (n=3, 17%). After complete treatment, the average time to strabismus surgery was 29.9 ± 20.5 (range, 12-84) months. Except for one, visual acuity was equal or less than 1.0 logMAR (≤ 20/200) in the affected eye. Seven (39%) patients had exotropia, 11(61%) had esotropia (P=0.346) and vertical deviation was found in 8 (48%) cases. The angle of deviation was 42.0 ± 10.4 (range, 30-60) prism diopter (PD) for esotropic and 35.7± 7.9 (range, 25-50) PD for exotropic patients (P=0.32) that after surgery significantly decreased to 8.5 ± 5.3 PD in esotropic cases and 5.9±6.7 PD in exotropic cases (P<0.001). The mean follow-up after surgery was 15.2 ± 2.0 (range, 10-24) months, in which 3 (17%) patients needed a second surgery. Conclusion: Strabismus surgery in treated Rb is safe, and results of the surgeries are acceptable and close to the general population. There was not associated with tumor recurrence or metastasis.

Keywords: retinoblastoma, strabismus, chemotherapy, surgery

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21723 Review on Future Economic Potential Stems from Global Electronic Waste Generation and Sustainable Recycling Practices.

Authors: Shamim Ahsan

Abstract:

Abstract Global digital advances associated with consumer’s strong inclination for the state of art digital technologies is causing overwhelming social and environmental challenges for global community. During recent years not only economic advances of electronic industries has taken place at steadfast rate, also the generation of e-waste outshined the growth of any other types of wastes. The estimated global e-waste volume is expected to reach 65.4 million tons annually by 2017. Formal recycling practices in developed countries are stemming economic liability, opening paths for illegal trafficking to developing countries. Informal crude management of large volume of e-waste is transforming into an emergent environmental and health challenge in. Contrariwise, in several studies formal and informal recycling of e-waste has also exhibited potentials for economic returns both in developed and developing countries. Some research on China illustrated that from large volume of e-wastes generation there are recycling potential in evolving from ∼16 (10−22) billion US$ in 2010, to an anticipated ∼73.4 (44.5−103.4) billion US$ by 2030. While in another study, researcher found from an economic analysis of 14 common categories of waste electric and electronic equipment (WEEE) the overall worth is calculated as €2.15 billion to European markets, with a potential rise to €3.67 billion as volumes increase. These economic returns and environmental protection approaches are feasible only when sustainable policy options are embraced with stricter regulatory mechanism. This study will critically review current researches to stipulate how global e-waste generation and sustainable e-waste recycling practices demonstrate future economic development potential in terms of both quantity and processing capacity, also triggering complex some environmental challenges.

Keywords: E-Waste, , Generation, , Economic Potential, Recycling

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21722 Voltage Stability Margin-Based Approach for Placement of Distributed Generators in Power Systems

Authors: Oludamilare Bode Adewuyi, Yanxia Sun, Isaiah Gbadegesin Adebayo

Abstract:

Voltage stability analysis is crucial to the reliable and economic operation of power systems. The power system of developing nations is more susceptible to failures due to the continuously increasing load demand, which is not matched with generation increase and efficient transmission infrastructures. Thus, most power systems are heavily stressed, and the planning of extra generation from distributed generation sources needs to be efficiently done so as to ensure the security of the power system. Some voltage stability index-based approach for DG siting has been reported in the literature. However, most of the existing voltage stability indices, though sufficient, are found to be inaccurate, especially for overloaded power systems. In this paper, the performance of a relatively different approach using a line voltage stability margin indicator, which has proven to have better accuracy, has been presented and compared with a conventional line voltage stability index for DG siting using the Nigerian 28 bus system. Critical boundary index (CBI) for voltage stability margin estimation was deployed to identify suitable locations for DG placement, and the performance was compared with DG placement using the Novel Line Stability Index (NLSI) approach. From the simulation results, both CBI and NLSI agreed greatly on suitable locations for DG on the test system; while CBI identified bus 18 as the most suitable at system overload, NLSI identified bus 8 to be the most suitable. Considering the effect of the DG placement at the selected buses on the voltage magnitude profile, the result shows that the DG placed on bus 18 identified by CBI improved the performance of the power system better.

Keywords: voltage stability analysis, voltage collapse, voltage stability index, distributed generation

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21721 Epistemic Uncertainty Analysis of Queue with Vacations

Authors: Baya Takhedmit, Karim Abbas, Sofiane Ouazine

Abstract:

The vacations queues are often employed to model many real situations such as computer systems, communication networks, manufacturing and production systems, transportation systems and so forth. These queueing models are solved at fixed parameters values. However, the parameter values themselves are determined from a finite number of observations and hence have uncertainty associated with them (epistemic uncertainty). In this paper, we consider the M/G/1/N queue with server vacation and exhaustive discipline where we assume that the vacation parameter values have uncertainty. We use the Taylor series expansions approach to estimate the expectation and variance of model output, due to epistemic uncertainties in the model input parameters.

Keywords: epistemic uncertainty, M/G/1/N queue with vacations, non-parametric sensitivity analysis, Taylor series expansion

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21720 Application of Monitoring of Power Generation through GPRS Network in Rural Residênias Cabo Frio/Rj

Authors: Robson C. Santos, David D. Oliveira, Matheus M. Reis, Gerson G. Cunha, Marcos A. C. Moreira

Abstract:

The project demonstrates the construction of a solar power generation, integrated inverter equipment to a "Grid-Tie" by converting direct current generated by solar panels, into alternating current, the same parameters of frequency and voltage concessionaire distribution network. The energy generated is quantified by smart metering module that transmits the information in specified periods of time to a microcontroller via GSM modem. The modem provides the measured data on the internet, using networks and cellular antennas. The monitoring, fault detection and maintenance are performed by a supervisory station. Employed board types, best inverter selection and studies about control equipment and devices have been described. The article covers and explores the global trend of implementing smart distribution electrical energy networks and the incentive to use solar renewable energy. There is the possibility of the excess energy produced by the system be purchased by the local power utility. This project was implemented in residences in the rural community of the municipality of Cabo Frio/RJ. Data could be seen through daily measurements during the month of November 2013.

Keywords: rural residence, supervisory, smart grid, solar energy

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21719 Investigation of Ground Disturbance Caused by Pile Driving: Case Study

Authors: Thayalan Nall, Harry Poulos

Abstract:

Piling is the most widely used foundation method for heavy structures in poor soil conditions. The geotechnical engineer can choose among a variety of piling methods, but in most cases, driving piles by impact hammer is the most cost-effective alternative. Under unfavourable conditions, driving piles can cause environmental problems, such as noise, ground movements and vibrations, with the risk of ground disturbance leading to potential damage to proposed structures. In one of the project sites in which the authors were involved, three offshore container terminals, namely CT1, CT2 and CT3, were constructed over thick compressible marine mud. The seabed was around 6m deep and the soft clay thickness within the project site varied between 9m and 20m. CT2 and CT3 were connected together and rectangular in shape and were 2600mx800m in size. CT1 was 400m x 800m in size and was located on south opposite of CT2 towards its eastern end. CT1 was constructed first and due to time and environmental limitations, it was supported on a “forest” of large diameter driven piles. CT2 and CT3 are now under construction and are being carried out using a traditional dredging and reclamation approach with ground improvement by surcharging with vertical drains. A few months after the installation of the CT1 piles, a 2600m long sand bund to 2m above mean sea level was constructed along the southern perimeter of CT2 and CT3 to contain the dredged mud that was expected to be pumped. The sand bund was constructed by sand spraying and pumping using a dredging vessel. About 2000m length of the sand bund in the west section was constructed without any major stability issues or any noticeable distress. However, as the sand bund approached the section parallel to CT1, it underwent a series of deep seated failures leading the displaced soft clay materials to heave above the standing water level. The crest of the sand bund was about 100m away from the last row of piles. There were no plausible geological reasons to conclude that the marine mud only across the CT1 region was weaker than over the rest of the site. Hence it was suspected that the pile driving by impact hammer may have caused ground movements and vibrations, leading to generation of excess pore pressures and cyclic softening of the marine mud. This paper investigates the probable cause of failure by reviewing: (1) All ground investigation data within the region; (2) Soil displacement caused by pile driving, using theories similar to spherical cavity expansion; (3) Transfer of stresses and vibrations through the entire system, including vibrations transmitted from the hammer to the pile, and the dynamic properties of the soil; and (4) Generation of excess pore pressure due to ground vibration and resulting cyclic softening. The evidence suggests that the problems encountered at the site were primarily caused by the “side effects” of the pile driving operations.

Keywords: pile driving, ground vibration, excess pore pressure, cyclic softening

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21718 Temperature Fields in a Channel Partially-Filled by Porous Material with Internal Heat Generations: On Exact Solution

Authors: Yasser Mahmoudi, Nader Karimi

Abstract:

The present work examines analytically the effect internal heat generation on temperature fields in a channel partially-filled with a porous under local thermal non-equilibrium condition. The Darcy-Brinkman model is used to represent the fluid transport through the porous material. Two fundamental models (models A and B) represent the thermal boundary conditions at the interface between the porous medium and the clear region. The governing equations of the problem are manipulated, and for each interface model, exact solutions for the solid and fluid temperature fields are developed. These solutions incorporate the porous material thickness, Biot number, fluid to solid thermal conductivity ratio Darcy number, as the non-dimensional energy terms in fluid and solid as parameters. Results show that considering any of the two models and under zero or negative heat generation (heat sink) and for any Darcy number, an increase in the porous thickness increases the amount of heat flux transferred to the porous region. The obtained results are applicable to the analysis of complex porous media incorporating internal heat generation, such as heat transfer enhancement (THE), tumor ablation in biological tissues and porous radiant burners (PRBs).

Keywords: porous media, local thermal non-equilibrium, forced convection, heat transfer, exact solution, internal heat generation

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21717 Load Forecasting in Microgrid Systems with R and Cortana Intelligence Suite

Authors: F. Lazzeri, I. Reiter

Abstract:

Energy production optimization has been traditionally very important for utilities in order to improve resource consumption. However, load forecasting is a challenging task, as there are a large number of relevant variables that must be considered, and several strategies have been used to deal with this complex problem. This is especially true also in microgrids where many elements have to adjust their performance depending on the future generation and consumption conditions. The goal of this paper is to present a solution for short-term load forecasting in microgrids, based on three machine learning experiments developed in R and web services built and deployed with different components of Cortana Intelligence Suite: Azure Machine Learning, a fully managed cloud service that enables to easily build, deploy, and share predictive analytics solutions; SQL database, a Microsoft database service for app developers; and PowerBI, a suite of business analytics tools to analyze data and share insights. Our results show that Boosted Decision Tree and Fast Forest Quantile regression methods can be very useful to predict hourly short-term consumption in microgrids; moreover, we found that for these types of forecasting models, weather data (temperature, wind, humidity and dew point) can play a crucial role in improving the accuracy of the forecasting solution. Data cleaning and feature engineering methods performed in R and different types of machine learning algorithms (Boosted Decision Tree, Fast Forest Quantile and ARIMA) will be presented, and results and performance metrics discussed.

Keywords: time-series, features engineering methods for forecasting, energy demand forecasting, Azure Machine Learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 302