Search results for: packet loss probability estimation

Authors: Aftab Khan, Ashfaq Khan

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The research paper focuses on an interesting challenge faced in Blind Image Deblurring (BID). It relates to the estimation of arbitrarily shaped or non-parametric Point Spread Functions (PSFs) of motion blur caused by camera handshake. These PSFs exhibit much more complex shapes than their parametric counterparts and deblurring in this case requires intricate ways to estimate the blur and effectively remove it. This research work introduces a novel blind deblurring scheme visualized for deblurring images corrupted by arbitrarily shaped PSFs. It is based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) and utilises the Blind/Reference-less Image Spatial QUality Evaluator (BRISQUE) measure as the fitness function for arbitrarily shaped PSF estimation. The proposed BID scheme has been compared with other single image motion deblurring schemes as benchmark. Validation has been carried out on various blurred images. Results of both benchmark and real images are presented. Non-reference image quality measures were used to quantify the deblurring results. For benchmark images, the proposed BID scheme using BRISQUE converges in close vicinity of the original blurring functions.

Keywords: blind deconvolution, blind image deblurring, genetic algorithm, image restoration, image quality measures

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Authors: N. Yang, R. Linforth, I. Fisk

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The influence of food processing and choice of flavour solvent was investigated using biscuits prepared with vanillin flavour as an example. Powder vanillin either was added directly into the dough or dissolved into flavour solvent then mixed into the dough. The impact of two commonly used flavour solvents on food quality was compared: propylene glycol (PG) or triacetin (TA). The analytical approach for vanillin detection was developed by chromatography (HPLC-PDA), and the standard extraction method for vanillin was also established. The results indicated the impact of solvent choice on vanillin level during biscuit preparation. After baking, TA as a more heat resistant solvent retained more vanillin than PG, so TA is a better solvent for products that undergo a heating process. The results also illustrated the impact of mixing and baking on vanillin stability in the matrices. The average loss of vanillin was 33% during mixing and 13% during baking, which indicated that the binding of vanillin to fat or flour before baking might cause larger loss than evaporation loss during baking.

Keywords: biscuit, flavour stability, food quality, vanillin

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Authors: Mohammad Zare, Mahbubeh Sheikh

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Many of the impact of climate change will material through change in soil erosion which were rarely addressed in Iran. This paper presents an investigation of the impacts of climate change soil erosin for the Kasilian basin. LARS-WG5 was used to downscale the IPCM4 and GFCM21 predictions of the A2 scenarios for the projected periods of 1985-2030 and 2080-2099. This analysis was carried out by means of the dataset the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) of Trieste. Soil loss modeling using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). Results indicate that soil erosion increase or decrease, depending on which climate scenarios are considered. The potential for climate change to increase soil loss rate, soil erosion in future periods was established, whereas considerable decreases in erosion are projected when land use is increased from baseline periods.

Keywords: Kasilian watershed, climatic change, soil erosion, LARS-WG5 Model, RUSLE

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Authors: Rachid Marzoug, Noureddine Lakouari, Beatriz Castillo Téllez, Margarita Castillo Téllez, Gerardo Alberto Mejía Pérez

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This paper developed a two-lane cellular automata model to explain the relationship between car accidents at a signalized intersection and traffic-related parameters. It is found that the increase of the lane-changing probability P?ₕ? increases the risk of accidents, besides, the inflow α and the probability of accidents Pₐ? exhibit a nonlinear relationship. Furthermore, depending on the inflow, Pₐ? exhibits three different phases. The transition from phase I to phase II is of first (second) order when P?ₕ?=0 (P?ₕ?>0). However, the system exhibits a second (first) order transition from phase II to phase III when P?ₕ?=0 (P?ₕ?>0). In addition, when the inflow is not very high, the green light length of one road should be increased to improve road safety. Finally, simulation results show that the traffic at the intersection is safer adopting symmetric lane-changing rules than asymmetric ones.

Keywords: two-lane intersection, accidents, fatality risk, lane-changing, phase transition

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Authors: Mohammad Rahim Rahnama, Amir Ali Kharazmi, Safiye Rokni

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The tourism industry will be the most important unlimited, sustainable source of income after the oil and automotive industries by 2020 and not only countries, but cities are striving to apprehend its various facets. In line with this objective, the present descriptive-analytical study, through survey and using a questionnaire, seeks to evaluate the probability of tourists’ return and their recommendation to their countrymen to travel to Mashhad, Iran. The population under study is a sample of 384 foreign tourists who, in 2016, arrived at Mashhad, the second metropolis in Iran and its biggest religious city. The Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to analyze the data. Twenty-six percent of the tourists are female and 74% are male. On average, each tourist has had 3.02 trips abroad and 2.1 trips to Mashhad. Tourists from 14 different countries have arrived at Mashhad. Kuwait (15.9%), Armenia (15.6%), and Iraq (10.9%) were the countries where most tourists originated. Seventy-six percent of the tourists traveled with family and 90% of the tourists arrived at Mashhad via airplane. Major purposes of tourists’ trip include pilgrimage (27.9%), treatment (22.1%) followed by pilgrimage and treatment combined (35.4%). Major issues for tourists, in the order of priority, include quality of goods and services (30.2%), shopping (18%), and inhabitants’ treatment of foreigners (15.9%). Main tourist attractions, in addition to the Holy Shrine of Imam Reza, include Torqabeh and Shandiz (Torqabeh 40.9% and Shandiz 29.9%), Neyshabour (18.2%) followed by Kalat, 4.4%. The average willingness to return among tourists is 3.13, which is higher than the mean 3, indicating satisfaction with the stay in Mashhad. Similarly, the average for tourists’ recommending to their countrymen to visit Mashhad is 3.42, which is also an indicator of tourists’ satisfaction with their presence in Mashhad. According to the findings of the Kaplan-Meier estimator, an increase in the number of tourists’ trips to Mashhad, and an increase in the number of tourists’ foreign trips, reduces the probability of recommending a trip to Mashhad by tourists. Similarly, willingness to return is higher among those who stayed at a relatives’ home compared with other patterns of residence (hotels, self-catering accommodation, and pilgrim houses). Therefore, addressing the issues raised by tourists is essential for their return and their recommendation to others to travel to Mashhad.

Keywords: international tourist, probability of return, satisfaction, Mashhad

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Authors: Xiaohan Bookman, Xiaoyan Zhu

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The outputs of non-linear feed-forward neural network are positive, which could be treated as probability when they are normalized to one. If we take Entropy-Based Principle into consideration, the outputs for each sample could be represented as the distribution of this sample for different clusters. Entropy-Based Principle is the principle with which we could estimate the unknown distribution under some limited conditions. As this paper defines two processes in Feed-Forward Neural Network, our limited condition is the abstracted features of samples which are worked out in the abstraction process. And the final outputs are the probability distribution for different clusters in the clustering process. As Entropy-Based Principle is considered into the feed-forward neural network, a clustering method is born. We have conducted some experiments on six open UCI data sets, comparing with a few baselines and applied purity as the measurement. The results illustrate that our method outperforms all the other baselines that are most popular clustering methods.

Keywords: feed-forward neural network, clustering, max-entropy principle, probabilistic models

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Authors: A. Flora, A. Di Lascio, D. Cardone, G. Gesualdi, G. Perrone

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This paper considers the seismic assessment and retrofit of a pilotis-type RC frame building, which was designed for gravity loads only, prior to the introduction of seismic design provisions. Pilotis-type RC frame buildings, featuring an uniform infill throughout the height and an open ground floor, were, and still are, quite popular all over the world, as they offer large open areas very suitable for retail space at the ground floor. These architectural advantages, however, are of detriment to the building seismic behavior, as they can determine a soft-storey collapse mechanism. Extensive numerical analyses are carried out to quantify and benchmark the performance of the selected building, both in terms of overall collapse capacity and expected losses. Alternative retrofit strategies are then examined, including: (i) steel jacketing of RC columns and beam-column joints, (ii) steel bracing and (iv) seismic isolation. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) of the selected case-study building, pre- and post-rehabilitation, is evaluated, following a probabilistic approach. The breakeven time of each solution is computed, comparing the initial cost of the retrofit intervention with expected benefit in terms of EAL reduction.

Keywords: expected annual loss, reinforced concrete buildings, seismic loss assessment, seismic retrofit

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Authors: M'Hamed Boulakroune, Mouloud Challal, Hassiba Louazene, Saida Fentiz

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This paper presents a new ultra wideband (UWB) microstrip bandpass filter (BPF) at microwave frequencies. The first one is based on multiple-mode resonator (MMR) and rectangular-shaped defected ground structure (DGS). This filter, which is compact size of 25.2 x 3.8 mm2, provides in the pass band an insertion loss of 0.57 dB and a return loss greater than 12 dB. The second structure is a tunable bandpass filters using planar patch resonators based on diode varactor. This filter is formed by a triple mode circular patch resonator with two pairs of slots, in which the varactors are connected. Indeed, this filter is initially centered at 2.4 GHz, the center frequency of the tunable patch filter could be tuned up to 1.8 GHz simultaneously with the bandwidth, reaching high tuning ranges. Lossless simulations were compared to those considering the substrate dielectric, conductor losses, and the equivalent electrical circuit model of the tuning element in order to assess their effects. Within these variations, simulation results showed insertion loss better than 2 dB and return loss better than 10 dB over the passband. The proposed filters presents good performances and the simulation results are in satisfactory agreement with the experimentation ones reported elsewhere.

Keywords: defected ground structure, diode varactor, microstrip bandpass filter, multiple-mode resonator

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Authors: Divya Vohora, Md. Jamir Anwar

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Antiepileptic drugs (AEDs)-induced adverse consequences on bone are now well recognized. Despite this, there is limited data on the effect of anti-osteoporotic therapies on AEDs-induced bone loss. Both phenytoin (PHT) and sodium valproate (SVP) inhibit human aromatase enzyme and stimulate microsomal catabolism of oestrogens. Estrogen deficiency states are known to reduce the deposition of transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β3), a bone matrix protein, having anti-osteoclastic property. Thus, an attempt was made to investigate the effect of raloxifene, a selective oestrogen receptor modulator, in comparison with CVD supplementation, on PHT and SVP-induced alterations in bone in mice. Further, the effect of raloxifene on seizures and on the antiepileptic efficacy of AEDs was also investigated. Swiss strains of female mice were treated with PHT (35 mg/kg, p.o.) and SVP (300 mg/kg, p.o.) for 120 days to induce bone loss as evidenced by reduced bone mineral density (BMD) and altered bone turnover markers in lumbar bones (alkaline phosphatase, tartarate resistant acid phosphatase, hydroxyproline) and urine (calcium). The bone loss was accompanied by reduced serum estradiol levels and bone TGF-β3 content. Preventive and curative treatment with raloxifene ameliorated bony alterations and was more effective than CVD. Deprived estrogen levels (that in turn reduced lumbar TGF-β3 content) following PHT and SVP, thus, might represent one of the various mechanisms of AEDs-induced bone loss. Raloxifene preserved the bony changes without interfering with their antiepileptic efficacy, and hence raloxifene could be a potential therapeutic option in the management of PHT and SVP-induced bone disease if clinically approved.

Keywords: antiepileptic drugs, osteoporosis, raloxifene, TGF-β3

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Authors: Armand Okende, Benjamin Beaumont

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Introduction: Deforestation is a change in the structure and composition of flora and fauna, which leads to a loss of biodiversity, production of goods and services and an increase in fires. It concerns vast territories in tropical zones particularly; this is the case of the territory of Bolobo in the current province of Maï- Ndombe in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Indeed, through this study between 2001 and 2018, we believe that it was important to show and analyze quantitatively the important forests changes and analyze quantitatively. It’s the overall objective of this study because, in this area, we are witnessing significant deforestation. Methodology: Mapping and quantification are the methodological approaches that we have put forward to assess the deforestation or forest changes through satellite images or raster layers. These satellites data from Global Forest Watch are integrated into the GIS software (GRASS GIS and Quantum GIS) to represent the loss of forest cover that has occurred and the various changes recorded (e.g., forest gain) in the territory of Bolobo. Results: The results obtained show, in terms of quantifying deforestation for the periods 2001-2006, 2007-2012 and 2013-2018, the loss of forest area in hectares each year. The different change maps produced during different study periods mentioned above show that the loss of forest areas is gradually increasing. Conclusion: With this study, knowledge of forest management and protection is a challenge to ensure good management of forest resources. To do this, it is wise to carry out more studies that would optimize the monitoring of forests to guarantee the ecological and economic functions they provide in the Congo Basin, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo. In addition, the cartographic approach, coupled with the geographic information system and remote sensing proposed by Global Forest Watch using raster layers, provides interesting information to explain the loss of forest areas.

Keywords: deforestation, loss year, forest change, remote sensing, drivers of deforestation

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Authors: Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, Tommaso Picciafuoco, Corrado Corradini

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A considerable part of rainfall data to be used in the hydrological practice is available in aggregated form within constant time intervals. This can produce undesirable effects, like the underestimate of the annual maximum rainfall depth, Hd, associated with a given duration, d, that is the basic quantity in the development of rainfall depth-duration-frequency relationships and in determining if climate change is producing effects on extreme event intensities and frequencies. The errors in the evaluation of Hd from data characterized by a coarse temporal aggregation, ta, and a procedure to reduce the non-homogeneity of the Hd series are here investigated. Our results indicate that: 1) in the worst conditions, for d=ta, the estimation of a single Hd value can be affected by an underestimation error up to 50%, while the average underestimation error for a series with at least 15-20 Hd values, is less than or equal to 16.7%; 2) the underestimation error values follow an exponential probability density function; 3) each very long time series of Hd contains many underestimated values; 4) relationships between the non-dimensional ratio ta/d and the average underestimate of Hd, derived from continuous rainfall data observed in many stations of Central Italy, may overcome this issue; 5) these equations should allow to improve the Hd estimates and the associated depth-duration-frequency curves at least in areas with similar climatic conditions.

Keywords: central Italy, extreme events, rainfall data, underestimation errors

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Authors: Gurbir Kaur, Surinder Pal Singh

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The present study is a part of the research work on the effect of limestone powder (LP), silica fume (SF) and metakaolin (MK), on the flexural fatigue performance of steel fibre reinforced concrete (SFRC). Corrugated rectangular steel fibres of size 0.6x2.0x35 mm at a constant volume fraction of 1.0% have been incorporated in all mix combinations as the reinforcing material. Three mix combinations were prepared by replacing 30% of ordinary Portland cement (OPC) by weight with these cement additives in binary and ternary fashion to demonstrate their contribution. An experimental programme was conducted to obtain the fatigue lives of all mix combinations at various stress levels. The fatigue life data have been analysed as an attempt to determine the relationship between stress level ‘S’, number of cycles to failure ‘N’ and probability of failure ‘Pf’ for all mix combinations. The experimental coefficients of the fatigue equation have also been obtained from the fatigue data to represent the S-N-Pf curves analytically.

Keywords: cement additives, fatigue life, probability of failure, steel fibre reinforced concrete

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Authors: Nattachote Rugthaicharoencheep

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This paper presents a feeder reconfiguration problem in distribution systems. The objective is to minimize the system power loss and to improve bus voltage profile. The optimization problem is subjected to system constraints consisting of load-point voltage limits, radial configuration format, no load-point interruption, and feeder capability limits. A method based on genetic algorithm, a search algorithm based on the mechanics of natural selection and natural genetics, is proposed to determine the optimal pattern of configuration. The developed methodology is demonstrated by a 33-bus radial distribution system with distributed generations and feeder capacitors. The study results show that the optimal on/off patterns of the switches can be identified to give the minimum power loss while respecting all the constraints.

Keywords: network reconfiguration, distributed generation capacitor placement, loss reduction, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Shanza Akram, Sameen Toor, Heba Harb Abu Alkass, Zainab Abdulsalam Altaha, Sara Taha Abdulla, Saleem Imran

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Acute pulmonary embolism (PE) is a common disease and can be fatal. The clinical presentation is variable and nonspecific, making accurate diagnosis difficult. Testing patients with suspected acute PE has increased dramatically. However, the overuse of some tests, particularly CT and D-dimer measurement, may not improve care while potentially leading to patient harm and unnecessary expense. CTPA is the investigation of choice for PE. Its easy availability, accuracy and ability to provide alternative diagnosis has lowered the threshold for performing it, resulting in its overuse. Guidelines have recommended the use of clinical pretest probability tools such as ‘Wells score’ to assess risk of suspected PE. Unfortunately, implementation of guidelines in clinical practice is inconsistent. This has led to low risk patients being subjected to unnecessary imaging, exposure to radiation and possible contrast related complications. Aim: To study the diagnostic yield of CT PA, clinical pretest probability of patients according to wells score and to determine whether or not there was an overuse of CTPA in our service. Methods: CT scans done on patients with suspected P.E in our hospital from 1st January 2014 to 31st December 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. Medical records were reviewed to study demographics, clinical presentation, final diagnosis, and to establish if Wells score and D-Dimer were used correctly in predicting the probability of PE and the need for subsequent CTPA. Results: 100 patients (51male) underwent CT PA in the time period. Mean age was 57 years (24-91 years). Majority of patients presented with shortness of breath (52%). Other presenting symptoms included chest pain 34%, palpitations 6%, collapse 5% and haemoptysis 5%. D Dimer test was done in 69%. Overall Wells score was low (<2) in 28 %, moderate (>2 - < 6) in 47% and high (> 6) in 15% of patients. Wells score was documented in medical notes of only 20% patients. PE was confirmed in 12% (8 male) patients. 4 had bilateral PE’s. In high-risk group (Wells > 6) (n=15), there were 5 diagnosed PEs. In moderate risk group (Wells >2 - < 6) (n=47), there were 6 and in low risk group (Wells <2) (n=28), one case of PE was confirmed. CT scans negative for PE showed pleural effusion in 30, Consolidation in 20, atelactasis in 15 and pulmonary nodule in 4 patients. 31 scans were completely normal. Conclusion: Yield of CT for pulmonary embolism was low in our cohort at 12%. A significant number of our patients who underwent CT PA had low Wells score. This suggests that CT PA is over utilized in our institution. Wells score was poorly documented in medical notes. CT-PA was able to detect alternative pulmonary abnormalities explaining the patient's clinical presentation. CT-PA requires concomitant pretest clinical probability assessment to be an effective diagnostic tool for confirming or excluding PE. . Clinicians should use validated clinical prediction rules to estimate pretest probability in patients in whom acute PE is being considered. Combining Wells scores with clinical and laboratory assessment may reduce the need for CTPA.

Keywords: CT PA, D dimer, pulmonary embolism, wells score

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Authors: A. Mansouri, F. Krim

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This paper presents two techniques for DC motor parameters identification. We propose a numerical method using the adaptive extensive recursive least squares (AERLS) algorithm for real time parameters estimation. This algorithm, based on minimization of quadratic criterion, is realized in simulation for parameters identification of DC motor autoregressive moving average with extra inputs (ARMAX). As advanced technique, we use genetic algorithms (GA) identification with biased estimation for high dynamic performance speed regulation. DC motors are extensively used in variable speed drives, for robot and solar panel trajectory control. GA effectiveness is derived through comparison of the two approaches.

Keywords: ARMAX model, DC motor, AERLS, GA, optimization, parameter identification, PID speed regulation

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Authors: Zsolt János Viharos, Krisztián Balázs Kis, Imre Paniti, Gábor Belső, Péter Németh, János Farkas

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The paper presents the results and industrial applications in the production setup period estimation based on industrial data inherited from the field of polymer cutting. The literature of polymer cutting is very limited considering the number of publications. The first polymer cutting machine is known since the second half of the 20th century; however, the production of polymer parts with this kind of technology is still a challenging research topic. The products of the applying industrial partner must met high technical requirements, as they are used in medical, measurement instrumentation and painting industry branches. Typically, 20% of these parts are new work, which means every five years almost the entire product portfolio is replaced in their low series manufacturing environment. Consequently, it requires a flexible production system, where the estimation of the frequent setup periods' lengths is one of the key success factors. In the investigation, several (input) parameters have been studied and grouped to create an adequate training information set for an artificial neural network as a base for the estimation of the individual setup periods. In the first group, product information is collected such as the product name and number of items. The second group contains material data like material type and colour. In the third group, surface quality and tolerance information are collected including the finest surface and tightest (or narrowest) tolerance. The fourth group contains the setup data like machine type and work shift. One source of these parameters is the Manufacturing Execution System (MES) but some data were also collected from Computer Aided Design (CAD) drawings. The number of the applied tools is one of the key factors on which the industrial partners’ estimations were based previously. The artificial neural network model was trained on several thousands of real industrial data. The mean estimation accuracy of the setup periods' lengths was improved by 30%, and in the same time the deviation of the prognosis was also improved by 50%. Furthermore, an investigation on the mentioned parameter groups considering the manufacturing order was also researched. The paper also highlights the manufacturing introduction experiences and further improvements of the proposed methods, both on the shop floor and on the quotation preparation fields. Every week more than 100 real industrial setup events are given and the related data are collected.

Keywords: artificial neural network, low series manufacturing, polymer cutting, setup period estimation

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Authors: Devinder Sharma, Sanjay Sharma, Ajay Goyal, Ashish Kapoor

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The present research paper discussed the durability properties of high strength concrete (HSC) using Foundry Slag(FD) as partial substitute for fine aggregates (FA) and Alccofine (AF) in addition to portland pozzolana (PPC) cement. Specimens of Concrete M100 grade with water/binder ratio 0.239, with Foundry Slag (FD) varying from 0 to 50% and with optimum quantity of AF(15%) were casted and tested for durability properties such as Water absorption, water permeability, resistance to sulphate attack, alkali attack and nitrate attack of HSC at the age of 7, 14, 28, 56 and 90 days. Substitution of fine aggregates (FA) with up to 45% of foundry slag(FD) content and cement with 15% substitution and addition of alccofine showed an excellent resistance against durability properties at all ages but showed a decrease in these properties with 50% of FD contents. Loss of weight in concrete samples due to sulphate attack, alkali attack and nitrate attack of HSC at the age of 365 days was compared with loss in compressive strength. Correlation between loss in weight and loss in compressive strength in all the tests was found to be excellent.

Keywords: alccofine, alkali attack, foundry slag, high strength concrete, nitrate attack, water absorption, water permeability

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Authors: Anna Sikharulidze, Gia Sirbiladze

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For the evaluation of unreliability levels of movement on the closed routes in the vehicle routing problem, the fuzzy operators family is constructed. The interactions between routing factors in extreme conditions on the roads are considered. A multi-criteria decision-making model (MCDM) is constructed. Constructed aggregations are based on the Choquet integral and the associated probability class of a fuzzy measure. Propositions on the correctness of the extension are proved. Connections between the operators and the compositions of dual triangular norms are described. The conjugate connections between the constructed operators are shown. Operators reflect interactions among all the combinations of the factors in the fuzzy MCDM process. Several variants of constructed operators are used in the decision-making problem regarding the assessment of unreliability and possibility levels of movement on closed routes.

Keywords: vehicle routing problem, associated probabilities of a fuzzy measure, choquet integral, fuzzy aggregation operator

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Authors: Ha Phuong Tran, Feng Wang, Jo Dewulf, Hai Trung Huynh, Thomas Schaubroeck

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The fast increase and complex components have made waste of electrical and electronic equipment (or e-waste) one of the most problematic waste streams worldwide. Precise information on its size on national, regional and global level has therefore been highlighted as prerequisite to obtain a proper management system. However, this is a very challenging task, especially in developing countries where both formal e-waste management system and necessary statistical data for e-waste estimation, i.e. data on the production, sale and trade of electrical and electronic equipment (EEE), are often lacking. Moreover, there is an inflow of non-registered electronic and electric equipment, which ‘invisibly’ enters the EEE domestic market and then is used for domestic consumption. The non-registration/invisibility and (in most of the case) illicit nature of this flow make it difficult or even impossible to be captured in any statistical system. The e-waste generated from it is thus often uncounted in current e-waste estimation based on statistical market data. Therefore, this study focuses on enhancing e-waste estimation in developing countries and proposing a calculation pathway to quantify the magnitude of the non-registered EEE inflow. An advanced Input-Out Analysis model (i.e. the Sale–Stock–Lifespan model) has been integrated in the calculation procedure. In general, Sale-Stock-Lifespan model assists to improve the quality of input data for modeling (i.e. perform data consolidation to create more accurate lifespan profile, model dynamic lifespan to take into account its changes over time), via which the quality of e-waste estimation can be improved. To demonstrate the above objectives, a case study on televisions (TVs) in Vietnam has been employed. The results show that the amount of waste TVs in Vietnam has increased four times since 2000 till now. This upward trend is expected to continue in the future. In 2035, a total of 9.51 million TVs are predicted to be discarded. Moreover, estimation of non-registered TV inflow shows that it might on average contribute about 15% to the total TVs sold on the Vietnamese market during the whole period of 2002 to 2013. To tackle potential uncertainties associated with estimation models and input data, sensitivity analysis has been applied. The results show that both estimations of waste and non-registered inflow depend on two parameters i.e. number of TVs used in household and the lifespan. Particularly, with a 1% increase in the TV in-use rate, the average market share of non-register inflow in the period 2002-2013 increases 0.95%. However, it decreases from 27% to 15% when the constant unadjusted lifespan is replaced by the dynamic adjusted lifespan. The effect of these two parameters on the amount of waste TV generation for each year is more complex and non-linear over time. To conclude, despite of remaining uncertainty, this study is the first attempt to apply the Sale-Stock-Lifespan model to improve the e-waste estimation in developing countries and to quantify the non-registered EEE inflow to domestic consumption. It therefore can be further improved in future with more knowledge and data.

Keywords: e-waste, non-registered electrical and electronic equipment, TVs, Vietnam

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Authors: Leslie M. Gutman

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Conduct problems (CP) represent a major dilemma, with wide-ranging and long-lasting individual and societal impacts. Children experience heterogeneous patterns of conduct problems; based on the age of onset, developmental course and related risk factors from around age 3. Early childhood represents a potential window for intervention efforts aimed at changing the trajectory of early starting conduct problems. Using the UK Millennium Cohort Study (n = 17,206 children), this study (a) identifies trajectories of conduct problems from ages 3 to 14 years and (b) assesses the cumulative and interactive effects of individual, family and socioeconomic risk factors from ages 9 months to 14 years. The same factors according to three domains were assessed, including child (i.e., low verbal ability, hyperactivity/inattention, peer problems, emotional problems), family (i.e., single families, parental poor physical and mental health, large family size) and socioeconomic (i.e., low family income, low parental education, unemployment, social housing). A cumulative risk score for the child, family, and socioeconomic domains at each age was calculated. It was then examined how the cumulative risk scores explain variation in the trajectories of conduct problems. Lastly, interactive effects among the different domains of cumulative risk were tested. Using group-based trajectory modeling, four distinct trajectories were found including a ‘low’ problem group and three groups showing childhood-onset conduct problems: ‘school-age onset’; ‘early-onset, desisting’; and ‘early-onset, persisting’. The ‘low’ group (57% of the sample) showed a low probability of conducts problems, close to zero, from 3 to 14 years. The ‘early-onset, desisting’ group (23% of the sample) demonstrated a moderate probability of CP in early childhood, with a decline from 3 to 5 years and a low probability thereafter. The ‘early-onset, persistent’ group (8%) followed a high probability of conduct problems, which declined from 11 years but was close to 70% at 14 years. In the ‘school-age onset’ group, 12% of the sample showed a moderate probability of conduct problems from 3 and 5 years, with a sharp increase by 7 years, increasing to 50% at 14 years. In terms of individual risk, all factors increased the likelihood of being in the childhood-onset groups compared to the ‘low’ group. For cumulative risk, the socioeconomic domain at 9 months and 3 years, the family domain at all ages except 14 years and child domain at all ages were found to differentiate childhood-onset groups from the ‘low’ group. Cumulative risk at 9 months and 3 years did not differentiate between the ‘school-onset’ group and ‘low’ group. Significant interactions were found between the domains for the ‘early-onset, desisting group’ suggesting that low levels of risk in one domain may buffer the effects of high risk in another domain. The implications of these findings for preventive interventions will be highlighted.

Keywords: conduct problems, cumulative risk, developmental trajectories, early childhood, adolescence

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Authors: Xupin Zhang, Maria Caterina Bramati, Enrest Fokoue

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Understanding the career placement of graduates from the university is crucial for both the qualities of education and ultimate satisfaction of students. In this research, we adapt the capabilities of dynamic Bayesian networks to characterize and predict students’ job placement using data from various universities. We also provide elements of the estimation of the indicator (score) of the strength of the network. The research focuses on overall findings as well as specific student groups including international and STEM students and their insight on the career path and what changes need to be made. The derived Bayesian network has the potential to be used as a tool for simulating the career path for students and ultimately helps universities in both academic advising and career counseling.

Keywords: dynamic bayesian networks, indicator estimation, job placement, social networks

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Authors: Zaouche Mohamed, Amini Mohamed, Foughali Khaled, Aitkaid Souhila, Bouchiha Nihad Sarah

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The aerodynamic coefficients are important in the evaluation of an aircraft performance and stability-control characteristics. These coefficients also can be used in the automatic flight control systems and mathematical model of flight simulator. The study of the aerodynamic aspect of flying systems is a reserved domain and inaccessible for the developers. Doing tests in a wind tunnel to extract aerodynamic forces and moments requires a specific and expensive means. Besides, the glaring lack of published documentation in this field of study makes the aerodynamic coefficients determination complicated. This work is devoted to the identification of an aerodynamic model, by using an aircraft in virtual simulated environment. We deal with the identification of the system, we present an environment framework based on Software In the Loop (SIL) methodology and we use Microsoft^TM Flight Simulator (FS-2004) as the environment for plane simulation. We propose The Total Least Squares Estimation technique (TLSE) to identify the aerodynamic parameters, which are unknown, variable, classified and used in the expression of the piloting law. In this paper, we define each aerodynamic coefficient as the mean of its numerical values. All other variations are considered as modeling uncertainties that will be compensated by the robustness of the piloting control.

Keywords: aircraft aerodynamic model, total least squares estimation, piloting the aircraft, robust control, Microsoft Flight Simulator, MQ-1 predator

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Authors: Marcus Walter, Norbert Nitzsche, Dirk Odenthal, Steffen Müller

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This contribution presents a friction estimator for industrial purposes which identifies Coulomb friction in a steering system. The estimator only needs a few, usually known, steering system parameters. Friction occurs on almost every mechanical system and has a negative influence on high-precision position control. This is demonstrated on a steering angle controller for highly automated driving. In this steering system the friction induces limit cycles which cause oscillating vehicle movement when the vehicle follows a given reference trajectory. When compensating the friction with the introduced estimator, limit cycles can be suppressed. This is demonstrated by measurements in a series vehicle.

Keywords: friction estimation, friction compensation, steering system, lateral vehicle guidance

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Authors: Ahmed Rouili

Abstract:

Cantilever L-shaped walls are known to be relatively economical as retaining solution. The design starts by proportioning the wall dimensions for which the stability is checked for. A ratio between the lengths of the base and the stem, falling between 0,5 to 0,7, ensure the stability requirements in most cases. However, the displacement pattern of the wall in terms of rotations and translations, and the lateral pressure profile, do not have the same figure for all wall’s proportioning, as it is usually assumed. In the present work, the results of a numerical analysis are presented, different wall geometries were considered. The results show that the proportioning governs the equilibrium between the instantaneous rotation and the translation of the wall-toe, also, the lateral pressure estimation based on the average value between the at-rest and the active pressure, recommended by most design standards, is found to be not applicable for all walls.

Keywords: cantilever wall, proportioning, numerical analysis, lateral pressure estimation

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Authors: Peng Zhang, Lihui Zheng, Xiangchun Wang, Xiaopan Kou

Abstract:

Quantitative research on the main control factors of lost circulation has few considerations and single data source. Using Unmanned Intervention Algorithm to find the main control factors of lost circulation adopts all measurable parameters. The degree of lost circulation is characterized by the loss rate as the objective function. Geological, engineering and fluid data are used as layers, and 27 factors such as wellhead coordinates and WOB are used as dimensions. Data classification is implemented to determine function independent variables. The mathematical equation of loss rate and 27 influencing factors is established by multiple regression method, and the undetermined coefficient method is used to solve the undetermined coefficient of the equation. Only three factors in t-test are greater than the test value 40, and the F-test value is 96.557%, indicating that the correlation of the model is good. The funnel viscosity, final shear force and drilling time were selected as the main control factors by elimination method, contribution rate method and functional method. The calculated values of the two wells used for verification differ from the actual values by -3.036m3/h and -2.374m3/h, with errors of 7.21% and 6.35%. The influence of engineering factors on the loss rate is greater than that of funnel viscosity and final shear force, and the influence of the three factors is less than that of geological factors. Quantitatively calculate the best combination of funnel viscosity, final shear force and drilling time. The minimum loss rate of lost circulation wells in Shunbei area is 10m3/h. It can be seen that man-made main control factors can only slow down the leakage, but cannot fundamentally eliminate it. This is more in line with the characteristics of karst caves and fractures in Shunbei fault solution oil and gas reservoir.

Keywords: drilling and completion, drilling fluid, lost circulation, loss rate, main controlling factors, unmanned intervention algorithm

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Authors: Hamed Zolfaghari, Mojtaba Kord

Abstract:

After feasibility study the design phase is started and the rest of other phases are highly dependent on this phase. forecasting the duration of design phase could do a miracle and would save a lot of time. This study provides a fast and accurate Machine learning (ML) and optimization framework, which allows a quick duration estimation of project design phase, hence improving operational efficiency and competitiveness of a design construction company. 3 data sets of three years composed of daily time spent for different design projects are used to train and validate the ML models to perform multiple projects. Our study concluded that Artificial Neural Network (ANN) performed an accuracy of 0.94.

Keywords: time estimation, machine learning, Artificial neural network, project design phase

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: Fang Ye, Han Yu, Yibing Li

Abstract:

Radio interference is one of the major concerns in using the global positioning system (GPS) for civilian and military applications. Interference signals are produced not only through all electronic systems but also illegal jammers. Among different types of interferences, continuous wave (CW) interference has strong adverse impacts on the quality of the received signal. In this paper, we make more detailed analysis for CW interference effects on GPS signal quality. Based on the C/A code spectrum lines, the influence of CW interference on the acquisition performance of GPS receivers is further analysed. This influence is supported by simulation results using GPS software receiver. As the most important user parameter of GPS receivers, the mathematical expression of bit error probability is also derived in the presence of CW interference, and the expression is consistent with the Monte Carlo simulation results. The research on CW interference provides some theoretical gist and new thoughts on monitoring the radio noise environment and improving the anti-jamming ability of GPS receivers.

Keywords: GPS, CW interference, acquisition performance, bit error probability, Monte Carlo

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Authors: G. K. S. Prakash, Rao K. Srinivasa

Abstract:

MEMS plays an important role in wide range of applications like biological, automobiles, military and communication engineering. This paper mainly investigates on capacitive shunt RF MEMS switch with low actuation voltage and low insertion losses. To trim the pull-in voltage, a step structure has introduced to trim air gap between the beam and the dielectric layer with that pull in voltage is trim to 2.9 V. The switching time of the proposed switch is 39.1μs, and capacitance ratio is 67. To get more isolation, we have used aluminum nitride as dielectric material instead of silicon nitride (Si₃N₄) and silicon dioxide (SiO₂) because aluminum nitride has high dielectric constant (εᵣ = 9.5) increases the OFF capacitance and eventually increases the isolation of the switch. The results show that the switch is ON state involves return loss (S₁₁) less than -25 dB up to 40 GHz and insertion loss (S₂₁) is more than -1 dB up to 35 GHz. In OFF state switch shows maximum isolation (S₂₁) of -38 dB occurs at a frequency of 25-27 GHz for K band applications.

Keywords: RF MEMS, actuation voltage, isolation loss, switches

Procedia PDF Downloads 362

Authors: André Luís Brasil Cavalcante, Juan Felix Rodriguez Rebolledo, Lucas Parreira de Faria Borges

Abstract:

A methodology for the probabilistic analysis of active earth pressure on retaining wall for c-Φ soil backfill is described in this paper. The Rosenblueth point estimate method is used to measure the failure probability of a gravity retaining wall. The basic principle of this methodology is to use two point estimates, i.e., the standard deviation and the mean value, to examine a variable in the safety analysis. The simplicity of this framework assures to its wide application. For the calculation is required 2ⁿ repetitions during the analysis, since the system is governed by n variables. In this study, a probabilistic model based on the Rosenblueth approach for the computation of the overturning probability of failure of a retaining wall is presented. The obtained results have shown the advantages of this kind of models in comparison with the deterministic solution. In a relatively easy way, the uncertainty on the wall and fill parameters are taken into account, and some practical results can be obtained for the retaining structure design.

Keywords: retaining wall, active earth pressure, backfill, probabilistic analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 418

Authors: Damaris Estrella Castillo, Zacil ha Vilchis Zapata, Leydi Peraza Gómez

Abstract:

Hearing loss is an etiologically heterogeneous condition, where almost 60% is genetic in origin, 20% is due to environmental factors, and 20% have unknown causes. However, it is now known that the gene, GJB2, which encodes the connexin 26 protein, accounts for a large percentage of non-syndromic genetic hearing loss, and variants in this gene have been identified to be a common cause of hereditary hearing loss in many populations. The literature reports that the etiology in deafness helps improve family functioning but low-income countries this is difficult. Therefore, it is difficult to contribute the right of families to know about the genetic risk in future pregnancies as well as determining the certainty of being a carrier or affected. In order to assess the impact of genetic counseling and the functionality, 100 families with at least one child with profound hearing loss, were evaluated by specialists in audiology, clinical genetics and psychology. Targeted mutation analysis for one of the two known large deletions of upstream of GJB2/GJB6 gene (35delG; and including GJB2 regulatory sequences and GJB6) were performed in patients with diagnosis of non-syndromic hearing loss. Genetic counseling was given to all parents and primary caregivers, and APGAR family test was applied before and after the counseling. We analyzed a total of 300 members (children, parents) to determine the presence of the GJB2 gene mutation. Twelve patients (carriers and affected) were positive for the mutation, from 5 different families. The subsequent family APGAR testing and genetic counseling, showed that 14% perceived their families as functional, 62 % and 24 % moderately functional dysfunctional. This shows the importance of genetic counseling in the perception of family function that can directly impact the quality of life of these families.

Keywords: family dynamics, deafness, APGAR, counseling

Procedia PDF Downloads 643