Search results for: flood modelling

Authors: Shilpa K. Nandwani, Mousumi Chakraborty, Smita Gupta

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When selecting surfactants for surfactant flooding during enhanced oil recovery, the most important criteria is that the surfactant system should reduce the interfacial tension between water and oil to ultralow values. In the present study, a mixture of ionic liquid surfactant and commercially available binding agent sodium tosylate has been used as a surfactant mixture. Presence of wormlike micelles indicates the possibility of achieving ultralow interfacial tension. Surface tension measurements of the mixed surfactant system have been studied. The emulsion size distribution of the mixed surfactant system at varying salinities has been studied. It has been found that at high salinities the viscoelastic surfactant system loses their efficacy and degenerate. Hence the given system may find application in low salinity reservoirs, providing good mobility to the flood during tertiary oil recovery process.

Keywords: ionic liquis, interfacial tension, Na-tosylate, viscoelastic surfactants

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Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

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Today, the need for water sources is swiftly increasing due to population growth. At the same time, it is known that some regions will face with shortage of water and drought because of the global warming and climate change. In this context, evaluation and analysis of hydrological data such as the observed trends, drought and flood prediction of short term flow has great deal of importance. The most accurate selection probability distribution is important to describe the low flow statistics for the studies related to drought analysis. As in many basins In Turkey, Gediz River basin will be affected enough by the drought and will decrease the amount of used water. The aim of this study is to derive appropriate probability distributions for frequency analysis of annual minimum flows at 6 gauging stations of the Gediz Basin. After applying 10 different probability distributions, six different parameter estimation methods and 3 fitness test, the Pearson 3 distribution and general extreme values distributions were found to give optimal results.

Keywords: Gediz Basin, goodness-of-fit tests, minimum flows, probability distribution

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Authors: Chiang Wei, Hui-Chung Yeh, Yen-Chang Chen

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The objective of this study is to estimate the rainfall using the new generation Himawari-8 meteorological satellite with multi-band, high-bit format, and high spatiotemporal resolution, ground rainfall data at the Chen-Yu-Lan watershed of Joushuei River Basin (443.6 square kilometers) in Central Taiwan. Accurate and fine-scale rainfall information is essential for rugged terrain with high local variation for early warning of flood, landslide, and debris flow disasters. 10-minute and 2 km pixel-based rainfall of Typhoon Megi of 2016 and meiyu on June 1-4 of 2017 were tested to demonstrate the new generation Himawari-8 meteorological satellite can capture rainfall variation in the rugged mountainous area both at fine-scale and watershed scale. The results provide the valuable rainfall information for early warning of future disasters.

Keywords: estimation, Himawari-8, rainfall, satellite imagery

Procedia PDF Downloads 186

Authors: Igor Vishnevskyi

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Introduction: The urinary bladder undergoes repeated strain during its working cycle, suggesting the presence of an efficient support system, force transmission, and mechanical amplification. The concept of a "hydrostatic skeleton" (HS) could contribute to our understanding of the functional relationships among bladder constituents. Methods: A multidisciplinary literature review was conducted to identify key features of the HS and to gather evidence supporting its applicability in urinary bladder biomechanics. The collected evidence was synthesized to propose a framework for understanding the potential hydrostatic properties of the urinary bladder based on existing knowledge and HS principles. Results: Our analysis revealed similarities in biomechanical features between living fluid-filled structures and the urinary bladder. These similarities include the geodesic arrangement of fibres, the role of enclosed fluid (urine) in force transmission, prestress as a determinant of stiffness, and the ability to maintain shape integrity during various activities. From a biomechanical perspective, urine may be considered an essential component of the bladder. The hydrostatic skeleton, with its autonomy and flexibility, may provide insights for researchers involved in bladder engineering. Discussion: The concept of a hydrostatic skeleton offers a holistic perspective for understanding bladder function by considering multiple mechanical factors as a single structure with emergent properties. Incorporating viewpoints from various fields on HS can help identify how this concept applies to live fluid-filled structures or organs and reveal its broader relevance to biological systems, both natural and artificial. Conclusion: The hydrostatic skeleton (HS) design principle can be applied to the urinary bladder. Understanding the bladder as a structure with HS can be instrumental in biomechanical modelling and engineering. Further research is required to fully elucidate the cellular and molecular mechanisms underlying HS in the bladder.

Keywords: hydrostatic skeleton, urinary bladder morphology, shape integrity, prestress, biomechanical modelling

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Authors: Anthony Quansah, Tresor Ntaryamira, Shula Mushota

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Models for geotechnical centrifuge testing are usually made from re-formed soil, allowing for comparisons with naturally occurring soil deposits. However, there is a fundamental omission in this process because the natural soil is deposited in layers creating a unique structure. Nonlinear dynamics of clay material deposit is an essential part of changing the attributes of ground movements when subjected to solid seismic loading, particularly when diverse intensification conduct of speeding up and relocation are considered. The paper portrays a review of axis shaking table tests and numerical recreations to explore the offshore clay deposits subjected to seismic loadings. These perceptions are accurately reenacted by DEEPSOIL with appropriate soil models and parameters reviewed from noteworthy centrifuge modeling researches. At that point, precise 1-D site reaction investigations are performed on both time and recurrence spaces. The outcomes uncover that for profound delicate clay is subjected to expansive quakes, noteworthy increasing speed lessening may happen close to the highest point of store because of soil nonlinearity and even neighborhood shear disappointment; nonetheless, huge enhancement of removal at low frequencies are normal in any case the forces of base movements, which proposes that for dislodging touchy seaward establishments and structures, such intensified low-recurrence relocation reaction will assume an essential part in seismic outline. This research shows centrifuge as a tool for creating a layered sample important for modelling true soil behaviour (such as permeability) which is not identical in all directions. Currently, there are limited methods for creating layered soil samples.

Keywords: seismic analysis, layered modeling, terotechnology, finite element modeling

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Authors: İsmail Şimşekoğlu, Serkan Yılmaz

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There have been great improvements in technology that caused epoch-making changes in aviation. Thus, we can control air vehicles from ground without pilots in them: The UAVs. Due to UAV’s lack of need of pilots and their small size make them have crucial importance for us. UAVs have variety of usage area, especially in military. However, as soldiers we believe that we can use UAVs for better purposes. In this essay we indicate the usage of UAVs for the sake of saving nature from destruction of disasters by expressing what happened in the past and what can possibly happen in the future, especially in firefighting, preventing avalanches and decreasing the effects of floods. These three disasters cause hazardous consequences to the nature. Wildfires endanger so many lives by burning and destroying what comes in their paths. The numbers of avalanches are increased with the global warming. The changes of seasons triggered floods all over the world that threaten the city life. Besides all of these people may lose their lives in order to intrude these disasters. Drones will do the job without involving people lives. Thus it will diminish the risks so drones will be used for the sake of nature and people.

Keywords: unmanned air vehicles, nature, firefighting, avalanche, flood

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Authors: C. W. F. Che Wan Putra, M. Alshawi, M. S. Al Ahbabi, M. Jabakhanji

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The construction industry is a multi-disciplinary and multi-national industry, which has an important role to play within the overall economy of any country. There are major challenges to an improved performance within the industry. Particularly lacking is, the ability to capture the large amounts of information generated during the life-cycle of projects and to make these available, in the right format, so that professionals can then evaluate alternative solutions based on life-cycle analysis. The fragmented nature of the industry is the main reason behind the unavailability and ill utilisation of project information. The lack of adequately engaging clients and managing their requirements contributes adversely to construction budget and schedule overruns. This is a difficult task to achieve, particularly if clients are not continuously and formally involved in the design and construction process, which means that the design intent is left to designers that may not always satisfy clients’ requirements. Client lead is strongly recognised in bringing change through better collaboration between project stakeholders. However, one of the major challenges is that collaboration is operated under conventional procurement methods, which hugely limit the stakeholders’ roles and responsibilities to bring about the required level of collaboration. A research has been conducted with a typical project in the UAE. A qualitative research work was conducted including semi-structured interviews with project partners to discover the real reasons behind this delay. The case study also investigated the real causes of the problems and if they can be adequately addressed by BIM and IPD. Special focus was also placed on the Client leadership and the role the Client can play to eliminate/minimize these problems. It was found that part of the ‘key elements’ from which the problems exist can be attributed to the client leadership and the collaborative environment and BIM.

Keywords: client leadership, building information modelling (BIM), integrated project delivery (IPD), case study

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Authors: Evy Van Puymbroeck, Wim Nagy, Ken Schotte, Heng Fang, Hans De Backer

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The knowledge of residual stresses for welded bridge components is essential to determine the effect of the residual stresses on the fatigue life behavior. The residual stresses of an orthotropic bridge deck are determined by simulating the welding process with finite element modelling. The stiffener is placed on top of the deck plate before welding. A chained thermal-mechanical analysis is set up to determine the distribution of residual stresses for the bridge deck. First, a thermal analysis is used to determine the temperatures of the orthotropic deck for different time steps during the welding process. Twin wire submerged arc welding is used to construct the orthotropic plate. A double ellipsoidal volume heat source model is used to describe the heat flow through a material for a moving heat source. The heat input is used to determine the heat flux which is applied as a thermal load during the thermal analysis. The heat flux for each element is calculated for different time steps to simulate the passage of the welding torch with the considered welding speed. This results in a time dependent heat flux that is applied as a thermal loading. Thermal material behavior is specified by assigning the properties of the material in function of the high temperatures during welding. Isotropic hardening behavior is included in the model. The thermal analysis simulates the heat introduced in the two plates of the orthotropic deck and calculates the temperatures during the welding process. After the calculation of the temperatures introduced during the welding process in the thermal analysis, a subsequent mechanical analysis is performed. For the boundary conditions of the mechanical analysis, the actual welding conditions are considered. Before welding, the stiffener is connected to the deck plate by using tack welds. These tack welds are implemented in the model. The deck plate is allowed to expand freely in an upwards direction while it rests on a firm and flat surface. This behavior is modelled by using grounded springs. Furthermore, symmetry points and lines are used to prevent the model to move freely in other directions. In the thermal analysis, a mechanical material model is used. The calculated temperatures during the thermal analysis are introduced during the mechanical analysis as a time dependent load. The connection of the elements of the two plates in the fusion zone is realized with a glued connection which is activated when the welding temperature is reached. The mechanical analysis results in a distribution of the residual stresses. The distribution of the residual stresses of the orthotropic bridge deck is compared with results from literature. Literature proposes uniform tensile yield stresses in the weld while the finite element modelling showed tensile yield stresses at a short distance from the weld root or the weld toe. The chained thermal-mechanical analysis results in a distribution of residual weld stresses for an orthotropic bridge deck. In future research, the effect of these residual stresses on the fatigue life behavior of welded bridge components can be studied.

Keywords: finite element modelling, residual stresses, thermal-mechanical analysis, welding simulation

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Authors: Louis Denis Kevin Catherine, Raja Aziz Raja Ma’arof, Azrina Arshad, Sangeeth Suresh

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Machining parameters are very important in determining the surface quality of any material. In the past decade, some new engineering materials were developed for the manufacturing industry which created a need to conduct an investigation on the impact of the said parameters on their surface roughness. The polyurethane (PU) block is widely used in the automotive industry to manufacture parts such as checking fixtures that are used to verify the dimensional accuracy of automotive parts. In this paper, the design of experiment (DOE) was used to investigate the effect of the milling parameters on the PU block. Furthermore, an analysis of the machined surface chemical composition was done using scanning electron microscope (SEM). It was found that the surface roughness of the PU block is severely affected when PU undergoes a flood machining process instead of a dry condition. In addition, the step over and the silicon content were found to be the most significant parameters that influence the surface quality of the PU block.

Keywords: polyurethane (PU), design of experiment (DOE), scanning electron microscope (SEM), surface roughness

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Authors: Giovanna Grosso, Martien A. Hulsen, Arash Sarhangi Fard, Andrew Overend, Patrick. D. Anderson

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In many industrial applications and, in particular in polymer industry, the quality of mixing between different materials is fundamental to guarantee the desired properties of finished products. However, properly modelling and understanding polymer mixing often presents noticeable difficulties, because of the variety and complexity of the physical phenomena involved. This is the case of the Cavity Transfer Mixer (CTM), for which a clear understanding of mixing mechanisms is still missing, as well as clear guidelines for the system optimization. This device, invented and patented by Gale at Rapra Technology Limited, is an add-on to be mounted downstream of existing extruders, in order to improve distributive mixing. It consists of two concentric cylinders, the rotor and stator, both provided with staggered rows of hemispherical cavities. The inner cylinder (rotor) rotates, while the outer (stator) remains still. At the same time, the pressure load imposed upstream, pushes the fluid through the CTM. Mixing processes are driven by the flow field generated by the complex interaction between the moving geometry, the imposed pressure load and the rheology of the fluid. In such a context, the present work proposes a complete and accurate three dimensional modelling of the CTM and results of a broad range of simulations assessing the impact on mixing of several geometrical and functioning parameters. Among them, we find: the number of cavities per row, the number of rows, the size of the mixer, the rheology of the fluid and the ratio between the rotation speed and the fluid throughput. The model is composed of a flow part and a mixing part: a finite element solver computes the transient velocity field, which is used in the mapping method implementation in order to simulate the concentration field evolution. Results of simulations are summarized in guidelines for the device optimization.

Keywords: Mixing, non-Newtonian fluids, polymers, rheology.

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Authors: Kita R. Ashman, Anthony R. Rendall, Matthew R. E. Symonds, Desley A. Whisson

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Forest cover is decreasing globally, chiefly due to the conversion of forest to agricultural landscapes. In contrast, the area under plantation forestry is increasing significantly. For wildlife occupying landscapes where native forest is the dominant land cover, plantations generally represent a lower value habitat; however, plantations established on land formerly used for pasture may benefit wildlife by providing temporary forest habitat and increasing connectivity. This study investigates the influence of landscape, site, and climatic factors on koala population density in far south-west Victoria where there has been extensive plantation establishment. We conducted koala surveys and habitat characteristic assessments at 72 sites across three habitat types: plantation, native vegetation blocks, and native vegetation strips. We employed a hierarchical modeling framework for estimating abundance and constructed candidate multinomial N-mixture models to identify factors influencing the abundance of koalas. We detected higher mean koala density in plantation sites (0.85 per ha) than in either native block (0.68 per ha) or native strip sites (0.66 per ha). We found five covariates of koala density and using these variables, we spatially modeled koala abundance and discuss factors that are key in determining large-scale distribution and density of koala populations. We provide a distribution map that can be used to identify high priority areas for population management as well as the habitat of high conservation significance for koalas. This information facilitates the linkage of ecological theory with the on-ground implementation of management actions and may guide conservation planning and resource management actions to consider overall landscape configuration as well as the spatial arrangement of plantations adjacent to the remnant forest.

Keywords: abundance modelling, arboreal mammals plantations, wildlife conservation

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Authors: Juhi Sah

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Habitat is characterized by the inter-dependency of environmental elements. Anthropocentric development approach is increasing our vulnerability towards natural hazards. Hence, manmade interventions should have a higher level of sensitivity towards the natural settings. Sensitivity towards the environment can be assessed by the behavior of the stakeholders involved. This led to the establishment of a hypothesis: there exists a legitimate relationship between the behavioral sciences, land use evolution and environment conservation, in the planning process. An attempt has been made to establish this relationship by reviewing the existing set of knowledge and case examples pertaining to the three disciplines under inquiry. Understanding the scarce & deteriorating nature of fresh-water reserves of earth and experimenting the above concept, a case study of a growing urban center's river flood plain is selected, in a developing economy, India. Cases of urban flooding in Chennai, Delhi and other mega cities of India, imposes a high risk on the unauthorized settlement, on the floodplains of the rivers. The issue addressed here is the encroachment of floodplains, through psychological enlightenment and modification through knowledge building. The reaction of an individual or society can be compared to a cognitive process. This study documents all the stakeholders' behavior and perception for their immediate natural environment (water body), and produce various land uses suitable along a river in an urban settlement as per different stakeholder's perceptions. To assess and induce morally responsible behavior in a community (small scale or large scale), tools of psychological inquiry is used for qualitative analysis. The analysis will deal with varied data sets from two sectors namely: River and its geology, Land use planning and regulation. Identification of a distinctive pattern in the built up growth, river ecology degradation, and human behavior, by handling large quantum of data from the diverse sector and comments on the availability of relevant data and its implications, has been done. Along the whole river stretch, condition and usage of its bank vary, hence stakeholder specific survey questionnaires have been prepared to accurately map the responses and habits of the rational inhabitants. A conceptual framework has been designed to move forward with the empirical analysis. The classical principle of virtues says "virtue of a human depends on its character" but another concept defines that the behavior or response is a derivative of situations and to bring about a behavioral change one needs to introduce a disruption in the situation/environment. Owing to the present trends, blindly following the results of data analytics and using it to construct policy, is not proving to be in favor of planned development and natural resource conservation. Thus behavioral assessment of the rational inhabitants of the planet is also required, as their activities and interests have a large impact on the earth's pre-set systems and its sustenance.

Keywords: behavioral assessment, flood plain encroachment, land use planning, river sustenance

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Authors: Malay K. Pramanik

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In recent years, climate change has become a major threat and has been widely documented in the geographic distribution of many plant species. However, the impacts of climate change on the distribution of ecologically vulnerable medicinal species remain largely unknown. The identification of a suitable habitat for a species under climate change scenario is a significant step towards the mitigation of biodiversity decline. The study, therefore, aims to predict the impact of current, and future climatic scenarios on the distribution of the threatened Garcinia indica across the northern Western Ghats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. The future projections were made for the year 2050 and 2070 with all Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenario (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) using 56 species occurrence data, and 19 bioclimatic predictors from the BCC-CSM1.1 model of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s (IPCC) 5th assessment. The bioclimatic variables were minimised to a smaller number of variables after a multicollinearity test, and their contributions were assessed using jackknife test. The AUC value of 0.956 ± 0.023 indicates that the model performs with excellent accuracy. The study identified that temperature seasonality (39.5 ± 3.1%), isothermality (19.2 ± 1.6%), and annual precipitation (12.7 ± 1.7%) would be the major influencing variables in the current and future distribution. The model predicted 10.5% (19318.7 sq. km) of the study area as moderately to very highly suitable, while 82.60% (151904 sq. km) of the study area was identified as ‘unsuitable’ or ‘very low suitable’. Our predictions of climate change impact on habitat suitability suggest that there will be a drastic reduction in the suitability by 5.29% and 5.69% under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070, respectively. Finally, the results signify that the model might be an effective tool for biodiversity protection, ecosystem management, and species re-habitation planning under future climate change scenarios.

Keywords: Garcinia Indica, maximum entropy modelling, climate change, MaxEnt, Western Ghats, medicinal plants

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Authors: Lokesh Harshe

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The building construction sector is using 36% of global energy consumption with 39% of CO₂ emission. Professionals in the Built Environment Sector have long been aware of the industry’s contribution towards CO₂ emissions and are now moving towards more sustainable practices. As a result of this, many organizations have introduced rating systems to address the issue of global warming in the construction sector by ranking construction projects based on sustainability parameters. The pre-construction phase of any building project is the most essential time to make decisions for addressing the sustainability aspects. Traditionally, it is very difficult to collect data from different stakeholders and bring it together to form a decision based on factual data to perform sustainability analyses in the pre-construction phase. Building Information Modelling (BIM) is the solution where one single model is the result of the collaborative approach of BIM processes where all the information is shared, extracted, communicated, and stored on a single platform that everyone can access and make decisions based on real-time data. The focus of this research is on the Indian Green Rating System IGBC® with the objective of understanding IGBC® requirements and developing a framework to create the relationship between the rating processes and BIM. A Hypothetical (Architectural) model of a hostel building is developed using AutoCAD 2019 & Revit Arch. 2019, where the framework is applied to generate results on sustainability analysis using Green Building Studio (GBS) and Revit Add-ins. The results of any sustainability analysis are generated within a fraction of a minute, which is very quick in comparison with traditional sustainability analysis. This may save a considerable amount of time as well as cost. The future scope is to integrate Architectural, Structural, and MEP Models to perform accurate sustainability analyses with inputs from industry professionals working on real-life Green BIM projects.

Keywords: sustainability analyses, BIM, green rating systems, IGBC®, LEED

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Authors: Oussama Derdous, Lakhdar Djemili, Hamza Bouchahed

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The consequences of a dam breach can be devastating; both in terms of lives lost and damaged infrastructure and property. Hydraulic modeling provides a clear picture of the possible consequences of partial or complete failure of a dam, which is the key to carry out emergency planning and conduct reliable risk assessments. In this paper, the MIKE11 model developed by the Danish Hydrologic Institute (DHI) was used to simulate the flood wave propagation associated with a potential failure analysis failure of Zardezas dam located in the city of Skikda in the North East of Algeria. MIKE11 results including inundation maps and the representative channel/valley cross-sections depicting flow depth and maximal flow velocities showed that Zardezas reservoir presents a significant risk to downstream areas in the event of a dam failure. These results can be used as the basis of the development of an Emergency Action Plan (EAP).The main objective of this plan is to predict the appropriate steps to avoid or at least decrease the consequences of unexpected failure of Zardezas dam.

Keywords: MIKE11, dam break, inundation maps, emergency action plan

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Authors: Mohsina Aktar, Bishawjit Mallick

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Bangladesh faces the multidimensional manifestations of climate change e.g. flood, cyclone, sea level rise, drainage congestion, salinity, etc. This study aimed at to find out the community’s perception of the perceived impact of climate change on their wetland resource based livelihood, to analyze their present livelihood scenario and to find out required institutional setup to strengthen present livelihood scenario. Therefore, this study required both quantitative analysis like quantification of wetland resources, occupation, etc. and also exploratory information like policy and institutional reform. For quantitative information 200 questionnaire survey and in some cases observation survey and for socially shareable qualitative and quantitative issues case study and focus group discussion were conducted. In-Depth interview was conducted for socially non-shareable qualitative issues. The overall findings of this study have been presented maintaining a sequence- perception about climate change effect, livelihood scenario and required institutional support of the wetland community. Flood has been ranked where cyclone effect is comparatively less disastrous in this area. Heavy rainfall comes after the cyclone. Female members responded almost same about the ranking and effects of frequently occurred and devastating effects of climate change. People are much more aware of the impact of climate change. Training of Care in RVCC project helps to increase their knowledge level. If the level of education can be increased, people can fight against calamity and poverty with more confidence. People seem to overcome the problems of water logging and thus besides involving in Hydroponics (33.3%) as prime occupation in monsoon; they are also engaged in other business related activities. January to May is the low-income season for the farmers. But some people don’t want to change their traditional occupation and their age is above 45. The young earning member wants to utilize their lean income period by alternative occupation. People who do not have own land and performing water transportation or other types of occupation are now interested about Hydroponics. People who give their land on rent are now thinking about renting their land in monsoon as through that they can earn a sound amount rather than get nothing. What they require is just seed, training, and capital. Present marketing system faces the problem of communication. So this sector needed to be developed. Involvement of women in income earning activity is very low (5.1%), and 100% women are housewives. They became inferior due to their educational level and dominance of their husband. Only one NGO named BCAS (Bangladesh Center for Advanced Studies) has been found engage training facilities and advocacy for this purpose. Upazilla agricultural extension office like other GO remains inactive to give support the community for extension and improvement of Hydroponics agriculture. If the community gets proper support and inspiration, they can fight against crisis of low-income and climate change, with the Hydroponics cultivation system successfully.

Keywords: wetland community, hydroponics, climate change adaptation, livelihood

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Authors: Mohammad Ayobi

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Afghans have been immigrating to Iran for many years; The re-establishment of the Taliban in Afghanistan caused a flood of Afghan immigrants to Iran. One of the important issues related to the arrival of Afghan immigrants is the view that Afghan immigrants have toward Iranians. In this research, we seek to identify the schema of Afghan immigrants living in Iran about Iranians. A schema is a set of data or generalized knowledge that is formed in connection with a particular group or a particular person, or even a particular nationality to identify a person with pre-determined judgments about certain matters. The schemata between certain nationalities have a direct impact on the formation of interactions between them and can be effective in establishing or not establishing proper communication between the Afghan immigrant nationality and Iranians. For the scientific understanding of research, we use the theory of “schemata.” The method of this study is qualitative, and its data will be collected through semi-structured deep interviews, and data will be analyzed by thematic analysis. The expected findings in this study are that the schemata of Afghan immigrants are more negative than Iranians because Iranians are self-centered and fanatical about Afghans, and Afghans are only workers to them.

Keywords: schema study, Afghan immigrants, Iranians, in-depth interview

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Authors: Marcel Meinhardt, Manfred Keuser, Thomas Braml

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Cracking of reinforced concrete is a complex phenomenon induced by direct loads or restraints affecting reinforced concrete structures as soon as the tensile strength of the concrete is exceeded. Hence it is important to predict where cracks will be located and how they will propagate. The bond theory and the crack formulas in the actual design codes, for example, DIN EN 1992-1-1, are all based on the assumption that the reinforcement bars are embedded in homogeneous concrete without taking into account the influence of transverse reinforcement and the real stress situation. However, it can often be observed that real structures such as walls, slabs or beams show a crack spacing that is orientated to the transverse reinforcement bars or to the stirrups. In most Finite Element Analysis studies, the smeared crack approach is used for crack prediction. The disadvantage of this model is that the typical strain localization of a crack on element level can’t be seen. The crack propagation in concrete is a discontinuous process characterized by different factors such as the initial random distribution of defects or the scatter of material properties. Such behavior presupposes the elaboration of adequate models and methods of simulation because traditional mechanical approaches deal mainly with average material parameters. This paper concerned with the modelling of the initiation and the propagation of cracks in reinforced concrete structures considering the influence of transverse reinforcement and the real stress distribution in reinforced concrete (R/C) beams/plates in bending action. Therefore, a parameter study was carried out to investigate: (I) the influence of the transversal reinforcement to the stress distribution in concrete in bending mode and (II) the crack initiation in dependence of the diameter and distance of the transversal reinforcement to each other. The numerical investigations on the crack initiation and propagation were carried out with a 2D reinforced concrete structure subjected to quasi static loading and given boundary conditions. To model the uncertainty in the tensile strength of concrete in the Finite Element Analysis correlated normally and lognormally distributed random filed with different correlation lengths were generated. The paper also presents and discuss different methods to generate random fields, e.g. the Covariance Matrix Decomposition Method. For all computations, a plastic constitutive law with softening was used to model the crack initiation and the damage of the concrete in tension. It was found that the distributions of crack spacing and crack widths are highly dependent of the used random field. These distributions are validated to experimental studies on R/C panels which were carried out at the Laboratory for Structural Engineering at the University of the German Armed Forces in Munich. Also, a recommendation for parameters of the random field for realistic modelling the uncertainty of the tensile strength is given. The aim of this research was to show a method in which the localization of strains and cracks as well as the influence of transverse reinforcement on the crack initiation and propagation in Finite Element Analysis can be seen.

Keywords: crack initiation, crack modelling, crack propagation, cracks, numerical simulation, random fields, reinforced concrete, stochastic

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Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin

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Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

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Authors: Arnold M. Brener, Lesbek Tashimov, Ablakim S. Muratov

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The paper deals with the special model for coagulation kernels which represents new control parameters in the Smoluchowski equation for binary aggregation. On the base of the model the new approach to evaluating aggregative stability of disperse systems has been submitted. With the help of this approach the simple estimates for aggregative stability of various types of hydrophilic nano-suspensions have been obtained.

Keywords: aggregative stability, coagulation kernels, disperse systems, mathematical model

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Authors: Aimen Saleh

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The Silurian Lower Acacus sandstone is one of the main reservoirs in North West Libya. Our aim in this study is to grasp a robust understanding of the hydrocarbon potential and distribution in the area. To date, the depositional environment of the Lower Acacus reservoir still open to discussion and contradiction. Henceforth, building three dimensional (3D) property modelling is one way to support the analysis and description of the reservoir, its properties and characterizations, so this will be of great value in this project. The 3D model integrates different data set, these incorporates well logs data, petrophysical reservoir properties and seismic data as well. The finalized depositional environment model of the Lower Acacus concludes that the area is located in a deltaic transitional depositional setting, which ranges from a wave dominated delta into tide dominated delta type. This interpretation carried out through a series of steps of model generation, core description and Formation Microresistivity Image tool (FMI) interpretation. After the analysis of the core data, the Lower Acacus layers shows a strong effect of tidal energy. Whereas these traces found imprinted in different types of sedimentary structures, for examples; presence of some crossbedding, such as herringbones structures, wavy and flaser cross beddings. In spite of recognition of some minor marine transgression events in the area, on the contrary, the coarsening upward cycles of sand and shale layers in the Lower Acacus demonstrate presence of a major regressive phase of the sea level. However, consequently, we produced a final package of this model in a complemented set of facies distribution, porosity and oil presence. And also it shows the record of the petroleum system, and the procedure of Hydrocarbon migration and accumulation. Finally, this model suggests that the area can be outlined into three main segments of hydrocarbon potential, which can be a textbook guide for future exploration and production strategies in the area.

Keywords: Acacus, Ghadames , Libya, Silurian

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Alondra Balbuena Medina, Carlos Diaz Delgado, Aleida Yadira Vilchis Fránces

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In Mexico, each year news is disseminated about the ravages of floods, such as the total loss of housing, damage to the fields; the increase of the costs of the food, derived from the losses of the harvests, coupled with health problems such as skin infection, etc. In addition to social problems such as delinquency, damage in education institutions and the population in general. The flooding is a consequence of heavy rains, tropical storms and or hurricanes that generate excess water in drainage systems that exceed its capacity. In urban areas, heavy rains can be one of the main factors in causing flooding, in addition to excessive precipitation, dam breakage, and human activities, for example, excessive garbage in the strainers. In agricultural areas, these can hardly achieve large areas of cultivation. It should be mentioned that for both areas, one of the significant impacts of floods is that they can permanently affect the livelihoods of many families, cause damage, for example in their workplaces such as farmlands, commercial or industry areas and where services are provided. In recent years, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) have had an accelerated development, being reflected in the growth and the exponential evolution of the innovation giving; as a result, the daily generation of new technologies, updates, and applications. Innovation in the development of Information Technology applications has impacted on all areas of human activity. They influence all the orders of life of individuals, reconfiguring the way of perceiving and analyzing the world such as, for instance, interrelating with people as individuals and as a society, in the economic, political, social, cultural, educational, environmental, etc. Therefore the present work describes the creation of a system of calculation of flood costs for housing areas, retail establishments and agricultural areas from the Mexican Republic, based on the use and application of geotechnical tools being able to be useful for the benefit of the sectors of public, education and private. To generate analysis of hydrometereologic affections and with the obtained results to realize the Geoinformatics tool was constructed from two different points of view: the geoinformatic (design and development of GIS software) and the methodology of flood damage validation in order to integrate a tool that provides the user the monetary estimate of the effects caused by the floods. With information from the period 2000-2014, the functionality of the application was corroborated. For the years 2000 to 2009 only the analysis of the agricultural and housing areas was carried out, incorporating for the commercial establishment's information of the period 2010 - 2014. The method proposed for the resolution of this research project is a fundamental contribution to society, in addition to the tool itself. Therefore, it can be summarized that the problems that are in the physical-geographical environment, conceiving them from the point of view of the spatial analysis, allow to offer different alternatives of solution and also to open up slopes towards academia and research.

Keywords: floods, technological innovation, monetary estimation, spatial analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 219

Authors: Rita Sassine, Yassine Hassani, Mohamad Al Omari, Stéphanie Guibert

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Building Information Modelling (BIM) is the process of creating, managing, and centralizing information during the building lifecycle. BIM can be used all over a construction project, from the initiation phase to the planning and execution phases to the maintenance and lifecycle management phase. For existing buildings, BIM can be used for specific applications such as lifecycle management. However, most of the existing buildings don’t have a BIM model. Creating a compatible BIM for existing buildings is very challenging. It requires special equipment for data capturing and efforts to convert these data into a BIM model. The main difficulties for such projects are to define the data needed, the level of development (LOD), and the methodology to be adopted. In addition to managing information for an existing building, studying the impact of the built environment is a challenging topic. So, integrating the existing terrain that surrounds buildings into the digital model is essential to be able to make several simulations as flood simulation, energy simulation, etc. Making a replication of the physical model and updating its information in real-time to make its Digital Twin (DT) is very important. The Digital Terrain Model (DTM) represents the ground surface of the terrain by a set of discrete points with unique height values over 2D points based on reference surface (e.g., mean sea level, geoid, and ellipsoid). In addition, information related to the type of pavement materials, types of vegetation and heights and damaged surfaces can be integrated. Our aim in this study is to define the methodology to be used in order to provide a 3D BIM model for the site and the existing building based on the case study of “Ecole Spéciale des Travaux Publiques (ESTP Paris)” school of engineering campus. The property is located on a hilly site of 5 hectares and is composed of more than 20 buildings with a total area of 32 000 square meters and a height between 50 and 68 meters. In this work, the campus precise levelling grid according to the NGF-IGN69 altimetric system and the grid control points are computed according to (Réseau Gédésique Français) RGF93 – Lambert 93 french system with different methods: (i) Land topographic surveying methods using robotic total station, (ii) GNSS (Global Network Satellite sytem) levelling grid with NRTK (Network Real Time Kinematic) mode, (iii) Point clouds generated by laser scanning. These technologies allow the computation of multiple building parameters such as boundary limits, the number of floors, the floors georeferencing, the georeferencing of the 4 base corners of each building, etc. Once the entry data are identified, the digital model of each building is done. The DTM is also modeled. The process of altimetric determination is complex and requires efforts in order to collect and analyze multiple data formats. Since many technologies can be used to produce digital models, different file formats such as DraWinG (DWG), LASer (LAS), Comma-separated values (CSV), Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) and ReViT (RVT) will be generated. Checking the interoperability between BIM models is very important. In this work, all models are linked together and shared on 3DEXPERIENCE collaborative platform.

Keywords: building information modeling, digital terrain model, existing buildings, interoperability

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Bashar Mahmoud, Lee Mortimer, Michael Fairweather

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New methods have recently been introduced to improve the thermal property values of molten nitrate salts (a binary mixture of NaNO3:KNO3in 60:40 wt. %), by doping them with minute concentration of nanoparticles in the range of 0.5 to 1.5 wt. % to form the so-called: Nano-heat-transfer-fluid, apt for thermal energy transfer and storage applications. The present study aims to assess the stability of these nanofluids using the advanced computational modelling technique, Lagrangian particle tracking. A multi-phase solid-liquid model is used, where the motion of embedded nanoparticles in the suspended fluid is treated by an Euler-Lagrange hybrid scheme with fixed time stepping. This technique enables measurements of various multi-scale forces whose characteristic (length and timescales) are quite different. Two systems are considered, both consisting of 50 nm Al2O3 ceramic nanoparticles suspended in fluids of different density ratios. This includes both water (5 to 95 °C) and molten nitrate salt (220 to 500 °C) at various volume fractions ranging between 1% to 5%. Dynamic properties of both phases are coupled to the ambient temperature of the fluid suspension. The three-dimensional computational region consists of a 1μm cube and particles are homogeneously distributed across the domain. Periodic boundary conditions are enforced. The particle equations of motion are integrated using the fourth order Runge-Kutta algorithm with a very small time-step, Δts, set at 10-11 s. The implemented technique demonstrates the key dynamics of aggregated nanoparticles and this involves: Brownian motion, soft-sphere particle-particle collisions, and Derjaguin, Landau, Vervey, and Overbeek (DLVO) forces. These mechanisms are responsible for the predictive model of aggregation of nano-suspensions. An energy transport-based method of predicting the thermal conductivity of the nanofluids is also used to determine thermal properties of the suspension. The simulation results confirms the effectiveness of the technique. The values are in excellent agreement with the theoretical and experimental data obtained from similar studies. The predictions indicates the role of Brownian motion and DLVO force (represented by both the repulsive electric double layer and an attractive Van der Waals) and its influence in the level of nanoparticles agglomeration. As to the nano-aggregates formed that was found to play a key role in governing the thermal behavior of nanofluids at various particle concentration. The presentation will include a quantitative assessment of these forces and mechanisms, which would lead to conclusions about nanofluids, heat transfer performance and thermal characteristics and its potential application in solar thermal energy plants.

Keywords: thermal energy storage, molten salt, nano-fluids, multi-scale computational modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Adedayo Jeremiah Adeyekun, Samuel Oluwagbemiga Ishola

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This research paper focuses on the study of the master plan of rural Farrukhnagar, a town in Gurugram with an aim to proffer solutions to the problems associated with the planning of the town. The commercial zone has been selected for the case study. The findings from the case studies will reveal problems that will require a proposed design of a new ultra-modern market to position traders selling along the road in well-deserved stalls, waste disposal/incinerator system for proper management of waste and cleanliness within the market square, design of stormwater drainage to avoid flood during the rainy season and the design of car/auto – tricycle parks to create more space in the existing market cycle and thereby avoiding congestion. The research proposes urban and architectural solutions to improve the rural commercial service settings in Farrukhnagar which is a study area in Gurugram, Haryana, India.

Keywords: management, commercial, service, planning, congestion

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Authors: Hossein Afzali

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Increasingly, decision analytic models are used to inform decisions about whether or not to publicly fund new health technologies. It is well noted that the accuracy of model predictions is strongly influenced by the appropriateness of model structuring. However, there is relatively inadequate methodological guidance surrounding this issue in guidelines developed by national funding bodies such as the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC) and The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in the UK. This presentation aims to discuss issues around model structuring within decision making with a focus on (1) the need for a transparent and evidence-based model structuring process to inform the most appropriate set of structural aspects as the base case analysis; (2) the need to characterise structural uncertainty (If there exist alternative plausible structural assumptions (or judgements), there is a need to appropriately characterise the related structural uncertainty). The presentation will provide an opportunity to share ideas and experiences on how the guidelines developed by national funding bodies address the above issues and identify areas for further improvements. First, a review and analysis of the literature and guidelines developed by PBAC and NICE will be provided. Then, it will be discussed how the issues around model structuring (including structural uncertainty) are not handled and justified in a systematic way within the decision-making process, its potential impact on the quality of public funding decisions, and how it should be presented in submissions to national funding bodies. This presentation represents a contribution to the good modelling practice within the decision-making process. Although the presentation focuses on the PBAC and NICE guidelines, the discussion can be applied more widely to many other national funding bodies that use economic evaluation to inform funding decisions but do not transparently address model structuring issues e.g. the Medical Services Advisory Committee (MSAC) in Australia or the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health.

Keywords: decision-making process, economic evaluation, good modelling practice, structural uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 176

Authors: Oh Hyeon Jeon, WooYoung Jung

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In this study, seepage analysis was performed by the level difference between upstream and downstream of weir structure for safety evaluation of weir structure against flooding. Monte Carlo Simulation method was employed by considering the probability distribution of the adjacent ground parameter, i.e., permeability coefficient of weir structure. Moreover, by using a commercially available finite element program (ABAQUS), modeling of the weir structure is carried out. Based on this model, the characteristic of water seepage during flooding was determined at each water level with consideration of the uncertainty of their corresponding permeability coefficient. Subsequently, fragility function could be constructed based on this response from numerical analysis; this fragility function results could be used to determine the weakness of weir structure subjected to flooding disaster. They can also be used as a reference data that can comprehensively predict the probability of failur,e and the degree of damage of a weir structure.

Keywords: weir structure, seepage, flood disaster fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, Monte-Carlo simulation, permeability coefficient

Procedia PDF Downloads 342

Authors: B. Lee, B. H. Choi

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The loss of safety for reservoirs brought about by climate change and facility aging leads to reservoir failures, which results in the loss of lives and property damage in downstream areas. Therefore, it is necessary to provide a reservoir failure alert system for downstream residents to detect the early signs of failure (with sensors) in real-time and perform safety management to prevent and minimize possible damage. 10 case studies were carried out to verify the water level management criteria of four levels (attention, caution, alert, serious). Peak changes in water level data were analysed. The results showed that ‘Caution’ and ‘Alert’ were closed to 33% and 66% of difference in level between flood water level and full water level. Therefore, it is adequate to use initial water level management criteria of reservoir failure alert system for the first year. Acknowledgment: This research was supported by a grant (2017-MPSS31-002) from 'Supporting Technology Development Program for Disaster Management' funded by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety(MOIS)

Keywords: alert system, management criteria, reservoir failure, sensor

Procedia PDF Downloads 194

Authors: Leon Mishnaevsky Jr., Gaoming Dai

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3D numerical simulations of fatigue damage of multiscale fiber reinforced polymer composites with secondary nanoclay reinforcement are carried out. Macro-micro FE models of the multiscale composites are generated automatically using Python based software. The effect of the nanoclay reinforcement (localized in the fiber/matrix interface (fiber sizing) and distributed throughout the matrix) on the crack path, damage mechanisms and fatigue behavior is investigated in numerical experiments.

Keywords: computational mechanics, fatigue, nanocomposites, composites

Procedia PDF Downloads 601

Authors: Majid Aldalbahi

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In 2009, over 3.4 billion people in the world resided in urban areas as a result of rapid urban growth. This figure is estimated to increase to 6.5 billion by 2050. This urban growth phenomenon has raised challenges for many countries in both the developing and developed worlds. Urban growth is a complicated process involving the spatiotemporal changes of all socio-economic and physical components at different scales. The socio-economic components of urban growth are related to urban population growth and economic growth, while physical components of urban growth and economic growth are related to spatial expansion, land cover change and land use change which are the focus of this research. The interactions between these components are complex and no-linear. Several factors and forces cause these complex interactions including transportation and communication, internal and international migrations, public policies, high natural growth rates of urban populations and public policies. Urban growth has positive and negative consequences. The positive effects relates to planned and orderly urban growth, while negative effects relate to unplanned and scattered growth, which is called sprawl. Although urban growth is considered as necessary for sustainable urbanization, uncontrolled and rapid growth cause various problems including consumption of precious rural land resources at urban fringe, landscape alteration, traffic congestion, infrastructure pressure, and neighborhood conflicts. Traditional urban planning approaches in fast growing cities cannot accommodate the negative consequences of rapid urban growth. Microsimulation programme, and modelling techniques are effective means to provide new urban development, management and planning methods and approaches. This paper aims to use these techniques to understand and analyse the complex interactions for the case study of Riyadh city, a fast growing city in Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: policy implications, urban planning, traffic congestion, urban growth, Suadi Arabia, Riyadh

Procedia PDF Downloads 479