Search results for: failure probability

Authors: Elham Vojoudi, Marzieh Mehrafza, Ahmad Hosseini, Azadeh Raofi, Maryam Najafi

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Premature ovarian failure (POF) has become one of the main causes of infertility in women of childbearing age and the incidence of this disorder is increasing year by year. In these patients, poor ovarian response (POR) to gonadotropins reflects a diminished ovarian reserve (DOR) that gives place to few follicles despite aggressive stimulation. Up to now, egg donation is the only way to resolve infertility problems in POF patients. Therefore, some novel aspects such as activating (Akt signaling pathway) and inhibiting (Hippo-signaling) elements have been identified as IVA procedure that promotes primordial follicle activation. In this study, we used the newly developed technique (combination of in vitro activation of dormant follicles (IVA) and stem cell therapy) to promote ovarian follicle growth much more efficiently than the natural, in vivo process for women with POF. Transplantation of Warton Jelly-MSCs to the ovaries of POF patients rescued overall ovarian function. Participants (10 patients) were followed up monthly for a period of six months by hormonal (AMH, FSH, LH and E2), clinical (resuming menstruation), and US (folliculometry) outcomes after a laparoscopic operation. In summary, IVA/WJ-MSC transplantation may provide an effective treatment for POF.

Keywords: POF, in vitro activation, stem cell therapy, infertility

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Authors: Edokpa Idemudia Waziri, Salisu S. Umar

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The Hotellng’s T^2 is a well-known statistic for detecting a shift in the mean vector of a multivariate normal distribution. Control charts based on T have been widely used in statistical process control for monitoring a multivariate process. Although it is a powerful tool, the T statistic is deficient when the shift to be detected in the mean vector of a multivariate process is small and consistent. The Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (MEWMA) control chart is one of the control statistics used to overcome the drawback of the Hotellng’s T statistic. In this paper, the probability distribution of the Average Run Length (ARL) of the MEWMA control chart when the quality characteristics exhibit substantial cross correlation and when the process is in-control and out-of-control was derived using the Markov Chain algorithm. The derivation of the probability functions and the moments of the run length distribution were also obtained and they were consistent with some existing results for the in-control and out-of-control situation. By simulation process, the procedure identified a class of ARL for the MEWMA control when the process is in-control and out-of-control. From our study, it was observed that the MEWMA scheme is quite adequate for detecting a small shift and a good way to improve the quality of goods and services in a multivariate situation. It was also observed that as the in-control average run length ARL0¬ or the number of variables (p) increases, the optimum value of the ARL0pt increases asymptotically and as the magnitude of the shift σ increases, the optimal ARLopt decreases. Finally, we use the example from the literature to illustrate our method and demonstrate its efficiency.

Keywords: average run length, markov chain, multivariate exponentially weighted moving average, optimal smoothing parameter

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Authors: Jamal Abdi

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This paper is largely a response/critique of Samuel P. Huntington´s Clash of Civilizations thesis. The overriding argument is that Huntington´s thesis is characterized by failure to distinguish between ´groups´ and ´categories´. Multinational civilizations overcoming their internal collective action problems, which would enable them to pursue a unified strategy vis-à-vis the West, is a rather foundational assumption in his theory. Without assigning sufficient intellectual attention to the processes through which multinational civilizations may gain capacity for concerted action i.e. become a group, he contended that the post-cold-war world would be shaped in large measure by interactions among seven or eight major civilizations. Thus, failure in providing a convincing analysis of multi-national civilizations´ transition from categories to groups is a significant weakness in Huntington´s clash theory. It is also suggested that so-called Islamic terrorism and the war on terror is not to be taken as an expression of presence of clash between a Western and an Islamic civilization, as terrorist organizations would be superfluous in a world characterized by clash of civilizations. Consequences of multinational civilizations becoming a group are discussed in relation to contemporary Western superiority.

Keywords: categories, civilizations, clash, groups, groupness

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Authors: Yue Wang

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Five years passed since the newest English curriculum reform policy was published in China, hand-wringing spread among teachers who accused that this is another 'Wearing New Shoes to Walk the Old Road' policy. This paper provides a thoroughly philosophical policy analysis of serious efforts that had been made to support this reform and reveals the hindrances that bridled the reform to yield the desired effect. Blame could be easily put on teachers for their insufficient pedagogical content knowledge, conservative resistance, and the handicaps of large class sizes and limited teaching times, and so on. However, the underlying causes for this implementation failure are the interrelated factors in the NCEE-centred education system, such as the reluctant from students, the lack of school and education bureau support, and insufficient teacher training. A further discussion of 2017 to 2020’s NCEE reform on English prompt new possibilities for the authentic pedagogical approach reform in secondary English classes. In all, the pedagogical approach reform at the secondary level is heading towards a brighter future with the initiation of new NCEE reform.

Keywords: English curriculum, failure, NCEE, new possibilities, pedagogical, policy analysis, reform

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Authors: Japinder Wadhawan, Pradeep Rajan, Alok K. Saran, Navdeep S. Sidhu, Daanvir K. Dhir

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Currently, research focus in the development of agricultural equipment and tractor parts in India is innovation and use of alternate materials like austempered ductile iron (ADI). Three-point linkage mechanism of the tractor is susceptible to unpredictable load conditions in the field, and one of the critical components vulnerable to failure is lift arm. Conventionally, lift arm is manufactured either by forging or casting (SG Iron) and main objective of the present work is to reduce the failure occurrences in the lift arm, which is achieved by changing the manufacturing material, i.e ADI, without changing existing design. Effect of four pertinent variables of manufacturing ADI, viz. austenitizing temperature, austenitizing time, austempering temperature, austempering time, was investigated using Taguchi method for design of experiments. To analyze the effect of parameters on the mechanical properties, mean average and signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio was calculated based on the design of experiments with L9 orthogonal array and the linear graph. The best combination for achieving the desired mechanical properties of lift arm is austenitization at 860°C for 90 minutes and austempering at 350°C for 60 minutes. Results showed that the developed component is having 925 MPA tensile strength, 7.8 per cent elongation and 120 joules toughness making it more suitable material for lift arm manufacturing. The confirmatory experiment has been performed and found a good agreement between predicted and experimental value. Also, the CAD model of the existing design was developed in computer aided design software, and structural loading calculations were performed by a commercial finite element analysis package. An optimized shape of the lift arm has also been proposed resulting in light weight and cheaper product than the existing design, which can withstand the same loading conditions effectively.

Keywords: austempered ductile iron, design of experiment, finite element analysis, lift arm

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Authors: Mohammed Traeq Shukri

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Scour is a natural phenomenon caused by the erosive action of flowing stream on alluvial beds, which removes the sediment around or near structures located in flowing water. It means the lowering of the riverbed level by water erosions such that there is a tendency to expose the foundations of a structure. It is the result of the erosive action of flowing water, excavating and carrying away material from the bed and banks of streams and from around the piers of bridges. The failure of bridges due to excessive local scour during floods poses a challenging problem to hydraulic engineers. The failure of bridges piers is due to many reasons such as localized scour combined with general riverbed degradation. In this paper, we try to estimate the temporal variation of scour depth at non-uniform cylindrical bridge pier, by experimental work in civil engineering hydraulic laboratories of Gaziantep University on a channel have dimensions of 8.3m length, 0.8m width and 0.9m depth. The experiments will be carried on 20 cm depth of sediment layer having d50=0.4 mm. Three bridge pier shapes having different scaled models will be constructed in a 1.5m of test section in the channel.

Keywords: scour, local scour, bridge piers, scour depth, vortex, horseshoe vortex

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Authors: Hounyèmè Romuald, Mama Daouda, Argillier Christine

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The present study focused on the use of benthic macrofauna to define the reference state of an anthropized lagoon (Nokoué-Benin) from the responses of relevant metrics to proxies. The approach used is a combination of a joint species distribution model and Bayesian networks. The joint species distribution model was used to select the relevant metrics and generate posterior probabilities that were then converted into posterior response probabilities for each of the quality classes (pressure levels), which will constitute the conditional probability tables allowing the establishment of the probabilistic graph representing the different causal relationships between metrics and pressure proxies. For the definition of the reference thresholds, the predicted responses for low-pressure levels were read via probability density diagrams. Observations collected during high and low water periods spanning 03 consecutive years (2004-2006), sampling 33 macroinvertebrate taxa present at all seasons and sampling points, and measurements of 14 environmental parameters were used as application data. The study demonstrated reliable inferences, selection of 07 relevant metrics and definition of quality thresholds for each environmental parameter. The relevance of the metrics as well as the reference thresholds for ecological assessment despite the small sample size, suggests the potential for wider applicability of the approach for aquatic ecosystem monitoring and assessment programs in developing countries generally characterized by a lack of monitoring data.

Keywords: pressure proxies, bayesian inference, bioindicators, acadjas, functional traits

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Authors: Z. Ansari, M. R. M. Rejab, D. Bachtiar, J. P. Siregar

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This study focus on the compression and tensile properties of new and recycle square honeycombs structure from sugar palm fibre (SPF) and polylactic acid (PLA) composite. The end data will determine the failure strength and energy absorption for both new and recycle composite. The control SPF specimens were fabricated from short fibre co-mingled with PLA by using a bra-blender set at 180°C and 50 rpm consecutively. The mixture of 30% fibre and 70% PLA were later on the hot press at 180°C into sheets with thickness 3mm consecutively before being assembled into a sandwich honeycomb structure. An INSTRON tensile machine and Abaqus 6.13 software were used for mechanical test and finite element simulation. The percentage of error from the simulation and experiment data was 9.20% and 9.17% for both new and recycled product. The small error of percentages was acceptable due to the nature of the simulation model to be assumed as a perfect model with no imperfect geometries. The energy absorption value from new to recycled product decrease from 312.86kJ to 282.10kJ. With this small decrements, it is still possible to implement a recycle SPF/PLA composite into everyday usages such as a car's interior or a small size furniture.

Keywords: failure modes, numerical modelling, polylactic acid, sugar palm fibres

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Authors: Idris Garba, Aisha Rabiu Abdullahi, Mansur Yahuza, Akintade Dare

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Background: CT urography (CTU) is efficient radiological examination for the evaluation of the urinary system disorders. However, patients are exposed to a significant radiation dose which is in a way associated with increased cancer risks. Objectives: To determine Computed Tomography Dose Index following CTU, and to evaluate organs equivalent doses. Materials and Methods: A prospective cohort study was carried at a tertiary institution located in Kano northwestern. Ethical clearance was sought and obtained from the research ethics board of the institution. Demographic, scan parameters and CT radiation dose data were obtained from patients that had CTU procedure. Effective dose, organ equivalent doses, and cancer risks were estimated using SPSS statistical software version 16 and CT dose calculator software. Result: A total of 56 patients were included in the study, consisting of 29 males and 27 females. The common indication for CTU examination was found to be renal cyst seen commonly among young adults (15-44yrs). CT radiation dose values in DLP, CTDI and effective dose for CTU were 2320 mGy cm, CTDIw 9.67 mGy and 35.04 mSv respectively. The probability of cancer risks was estimated to be 600 per a million CTU examinations. Conclusion: In this study, the radiation dose for CTU is considered significantly high, with increase in cancer risks probability. Wide radiation dose variations between patient doses suggest that optimization is not fulfilled yet. Patient radiation dose estimate should be taken into consideration when imaging protocols are established for CT urography.

Keywords: CT urography, cancer risks, effective dose, radiation exposure

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Authors: Anthony Coogan

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Born’s probability interpretation of wave functions would have led to nearly identical results had he chosen a frequency interpretation instead. Logically, Born may have assumed that only one electron was under consideration, making it nonsensical to propose a frequency wave. Author’s suggestion: the actual experimental results were not of a single electron; rather, they were groups of reflected x-ray photons. The vertical waveform used by Scrhödinger in his Particle in the Box Theory makes sense if it was intended to represent a quantum leap. The author extended the single vertical panel to form a bar chart: separate panels would represent different energy levels. The proposed bar chart would be populated by reflected photons. Expansion of basic ideas: Part of Scrhödinger’s ‘Particle in the Box’ theory may be valid despite negative criticism. The waveform used in the diagram is vertical, which may seem absurd because real waves decay at a measurable rate, rather than instantaneously. However, there may be one notable exception. Supposedly, following from the theory, the Uncertainty Principle was derived – may a Quantum Leap not be represented as an instantaneous waveform? The great Scrhödinger must have had some reason to suggest a vertical waveform if the prevalent belief was that they did not exist. Complex wave forms representing a particle are usually assumed to be continuous. The actual observations made were x-ray photons, some of which had struck an electron, been reflected, and then moved toward a detector. From Born’s perspective, doing similar work the years in question 1926-7, he would also have considered a single electron – leading him to choose a probability distribution. Probability Distributions appear very similar to Frequency Distributions, but the former are considered to represent the likelihood of future events. Born’s interpretation of the results of quantum experiments led (or perhaps misled) many researchers into claiming that humans can influence events just by looking at them, e.g. collapsing complex wave functions by 'looking at the electron to see which slit it emerged from', while in reality light reflected from the electron moved in the observer’s direction after the electron had moved away. Astronomers may say that they 'look out into the universe' but are actually using logic opposed to the views of Newton and Hooke and many observers such as Romer, in that light carries information from a source or reflector to an observer, rather the reverse. Conclusion: Due to the controversial nature of these ideas, especially its implications about the nature of complex numbers used in applications in science and engineering, some time may pass before any consensus is reached.

Keywords: complex wave functions not necessary, frequency distributions instead of wave functions, information carried by light, sketch graph of uncertainty principle

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Authors: Atrin Barzegar, Yas Barzegar, Stefano Marrone, Francesco Bellini, Laura Verde

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The aim of this research is to develop an intelligent system to analyze the risk level of wheat flour product manufacturing system. The model consists of five Fuzzy Inference Systems in two different layers to analyse the risk of a wheat flour product manufacturing system. The first layer of the model consists of four Fuzzy Inference Systems with three criteria. The output of each one of the Physical, Chemical, Biological and Environmental Failures will be the input of the final manufacturing systems. The proposed model based on Mamdani Fuzzy Inference Systems gives a performance ranking of wheat flour products manufacturing systems. The first step is obtaining data to identify the failure modes from expert’s opinions. The second step is the fuzzification process to convert crisp input to a fuzzy set., then the IF-then fuzzy rule applied through inference engine, and in the final step, the defuzzification process is applied to convert the fuzzy output into real numbers.

Keywords: failure modes, fuzzy rules, fuzzy inference system, risk assessment

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Authors: Dipti Chand, Riya Saboo

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OBJECTIVES: Early and correct diagnosis may present a significant clinical challenge in diagnosis of patients presenting to Emergency Department with Acute Dyspnoea. The common cause of acute dyspnoea and respiratory distress in Emergency Department are Decompensated Heart Failure (HF), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), Asthma, Pneumonia, Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS), Pulmonary Embolism (PE), and other causes like anaemia. The aim of the study was to measure NT-pro Brain Natriuretic Peptide (BNP) and exhaled End-Tidal Carbon dioxide (ETCO2) in patients presenting with dyspnoea. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This prospective, cross-sectional and observational study was performed at the Government Medical College and Hospital, Nagpur, between October 2019 and October 2021 in patients admitted to the Medicine Intensive Care Unit. Three groups of patients were compared: (1) HFrelated acute dyspnoea group (n = 52), (2) pulmonary (COPD/PE)-related acute dyspnoea group (n = 31) and (3) sepsis with ARDS-related dyspnoea group (n = 13). All patients underwent initial clinical examination with a recording of initial vital parameters along with on-admission ETCO2 measurement, NT-proBNP testing, arterial blood gas analysis, lung ultrasound examination, 2D echocardiography, chest X-rays, and other relevant diagnostic laboratory testing. RESULTS: 96 patients were included in the study. Median NT-proBNP was found to be high for the Heart Failure group (11,480 pg/ml), followed by the sepsis group (780 pg/ml), and pulmonary group had an Nt ProBNP of 231 pg/ml. The mean ETCO2 value was maximum in the pulmonary group (48.610 mmHg) followed by Heart Failure (31.51 mmHg) and the sepsis group (19.46 mmHg). The results were found to be statistically significant (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: NT-proBNP has high diagnostic accuracy in differentiating acute HF-related dyspnoea from pulmonary (COPD and ARDS)-related acute dyspnoea. The higher levels of ETCO2 help in diagnosing patients with COPD.

Keywords: NT PRO BNP, ETCO2, dyspnoea, lung USG

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Authors: SeyedKeivan Nateghi, Jan Kaczmarczyk

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People nowadays spend most of their time in buildings. Accordingly, maintaining a good quality of indoor air is very important. New universal matters related to the prevalence of Covid-19 also highlight the importance of indoor air conditioning in reducing the risk of virus infection. Cooling and Heating of a house will provide a suitable zone of air temperature for residents. One of the significant factors in energy demand is energy consumption in the building. In general, building divisions compose more than 30% of the world's fundamental energy requirement. As energy demand increased, greenhouse effects emerged that caused global warming. Regardless of the environmental damage to the ecosystem, it can spread infectious diseases such as malaria, cholera, or dengue to many other parts of the world. With the advent of the Covid-19 phenomenon, the previous instructions to reduce energy consumption are no longer responsive because they increase the risk of virus infection among people in the room. Two problems of high energy consumption and coronavirus infection are opposite. A classroom with 30 students and one teacher in Katowice, Poland, considered controlling two objectives simultaneal. The probability of transmission of the disease is calculated from the carbon dioxide concentration of people. Also, in a certain period, the amount of energy consumption is estimated by EnergyPlus. The effect of three parameters of number, angle, and time or schedule of opening windows on the probability of infection transmission and energy consumption of the class were investigated. Parameters were examined widely to determine the best possible condition for simultaneous control of infection spread and energy consumption. The number of opening windows is discrete (0,3), and two other parameters are continuous (0,180) and (8 AM, 2 PM). Preliminary results show that changes in the number, angle, and timing of window openings significantly impact the likelihood of virus transmission and class energy consumption. The greater the number, tilt, and timing of window openings, the less likely the student will transmit the virus. But energy consumption is increasing. When all the windows were closed at all hours of the class, the energy consumption for the first day of January was only 0.2 megajoules. In comparison, the probability of transmitting the virus per person in the classroom is more than 45%. But when all windows were open at maximum angles during class, the chance of transmitting the infection was reduced to 0.35%. But the energy consumption will be 36 megajoules. Therefore, school classrooms need an optimal schedule to control both functions. In this article, we will present a suitable plan for the classroom with natural ventilation through windows to control energy consumption and the possibility of infection transmission at the same time.

Keywords: Covid-19, energy consumption, building, carbon dioxide, energyplus

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Authors: R. B. Adegbola, K. F. Oyedele, L. Adeoti

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We present a method that utilizes Multi-channel Analysis of Surface Waves, which was used to measure shear wave velocities with a view to establishing the probable causes of road failure, subsidence and weakening of structures in some Local Government Area, Lagos, Nigeria. Multi channel Analysis of Surface waves (MASW) data were acquired using 24-channel seismograph. The acquired data were processed and transformed into two-dimensional (2-D) structure reflective of depth and surface wave velocity distribution within a depth of 0–15m beneath the surface using SURFSEIS software. The shear wave velocity data were compared with other geophysical/borehole data that were acquired along the same profile. The comparison and correlation illustrates the accuracy and consistency of MASW derived-shear wave velocity profiles. Rigidity modulus and N-value were also generated. The study showed that the low velocity/very low velocity are reflective of organic clay/peat materials and thus likely responsible for the failed, subsidence/weakening of structures within the study areas.

Keywords: seismograph, road failure, rigidity modulus, N-value, subsidence

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Authors: Amit Kumar Haldar, Mark Simms, Ian McDevitt, Anthony Comer

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Interface properties of fiber metal laminates (FML) affects the integrity and deformation failure modes. In this paper, the mechanical behaviours of Ti/GFRP/Ti laminates were experimentally investigated through low-velocity impact tests. Two different surface treatments of Titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy sheets were prepared to obtain the composite interface properties based on annealing and sandblast surface treatment processes. The deformation failure modes, impact load sustaining ability and energy absorption capacity of FMLs were analysed. The impact load and modulus were shown to be dependent on the surface treatments of Titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy sheets. It was demonstrated that the impact load performance was enhanced when titanium surfaces were annealed and sandblasted. It has also been shown that the values of the strength and energy absorption were slightly higher when the tests conducted at relatively higher loading rate, as a result of the rate-sensitive effects on the damage resistance of the FML.

Keywords: fiber metal laminates, metal composite interface, indentation, low velocity impact

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Authors: Jairo A. Muñoz, Alexander Komissarov, Alexander Gromov

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In this investigation, a hypoeutectic AlSi11Cu alloy was printed. This alloy was obtained in powder form with an average particle size of 40 µm. Bars 20 mm in diameter and 100 mm in length were printed with the building direction parallel to the bars' longitudinal direction. The microstructural characterization demonstrated an Al matrix surrounded by a Si network forming a coral-like pattern. The microstructure of the alloy showed a heterogeneous behavior with a mixture of columnar and equiaxed grains. Likewise, the texture indicated that the columnar grains were preferentially oriented towards the building direction, while the equiaxed followed a texture dominated by the cube component. On the other hand, the as-printed material strength showed higher values than those obtained in the same alloy using conventional processes such as casting. In addition, strength and ductility differences were found in the printed material, depending on the measurement direction. The highest values were obtained in the radial direction (565 MPa maximum strength and 4.8% elongation to failure). The lowest values corresponded to the transverse direction (508 MPa maximum strength and 3.2 elongation to failure), which corroborate the material anisotropy.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, aluminium alloy, melting pools, tensile test

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Authors: Prateek Guleria, Shubham Sharma, Rakesh Kumar Shukla, Harshit Sharma

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Performance measurement of small and medium-sized businesses is the primary need for all companies to survive and thrive in a dynamic global company. A structured and systematic, integrated organization increases employee reliability, sustainability, and loyalty. This paper is a case study of a gear manufacturing industry that was facing the problem of rejection due to dents and damages in gear. The DMAIC cycle, along with different tools used in the research work includes SIPOC (Supply, Input, Process, Output, Control) Pareto analysis, Root & Cause analysis, and FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis). The six-sigma level was improved from 4.06 to 3.46, and the rejection rate was reduced from 7.44% to 1.56%. These findings highlighted the influence of a Lean Six Sigma module in the gear manufacturing unit, which has already increased operational quality and continuity to increase market success and meet customer expectations. According to the findings, applying lean six sigma tools will result in increased productivity. The results could assist businesses in deciding the quality tools that were likely to improve efficiency, competitiveness, and expense.

Keywords: six sigma, DMAIC, SIPOC, failure mode, effect analysis

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Authors: Jayaletchumi T. Sambantha Moorthy, Suhaimi bin Ibrahim, Mohd Naz’ri Mahrin

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Most quality models have defined usability as a significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability, increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also financially benefiting companies. Usability is also the best factor that acts as a balance for both the technical and human aspects of a software product, which is an important aspect in defining quality during software development process. A usability risk can be defined as a potential usability risk factor that a chosen action or activity may lead to a possible loss or an undesirable outcome. This could impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to negative user experiences and causing a possible software product failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in the software development process itself. By managing possible involved usability risks in software development process, failure of software product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi method to identify mitigation plans to reduce potential usability risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the field of risk management and software development.

Keywords: usability, usability risk, risk management, risk mitigation, delphi study

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Authors: H. J. Kim, K. H. Kim, N. H. Park, K. T. Nam, Y. H. Jung, T. H. Kim, J. H. Shin

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Underground excavations in an urban area can cause various geotechnical problems such as ground loss and lowering of groundwater level. When the ground loss becomes uncontrollably large, sinkholes can be developed to the ground surface. A sinkhole is commonly known as the natural phenomenon associated with lime rock areas. However, sinkholes in urban areas due to pressurized sewers and/or tunneling are also frequently reported. In this study, mechanism of a sinkhole developed at the site ‘A’ where a tunneling work underwent is investigated. The sinkhole occurred in the sand strata with the high level of groundwater when excavating a tunnel of which diameter is 3.6 m. The sinkhole was progressed in two steps. The first step began with the local failure around the tunnel face followed by tons of groundwater inflow, and the second step was triggered by the TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine) chamber opening which led to the progressive general failure. The possibility of the sinkhole was evaluated by using Limit Equilibrium Method (LEM), and critical height was evaluated by the empirical stability chart. It is found that the lowering of the face pressure and inflow of groundwater into the tunnel face turned to be the main reason for the sinkhole.

Keywords: limit equilibrium method, sinkhole, stability chart, tunneling

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Authors: Tsafi Timor

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The research focuses on the exploration of the unique journey that novice teachers experience in their first year of teaching, among graduates of re-training programs into teaching. The study explores the experiences of success and failure and the factors that underpin positive experiences, as well as the journey (process) of this year with reference to the comparison between novice teachers and new immigrants. The content analysis that was adopted in the study was conducted on texts that were written by the teachers and detailed their first year of teaching. The findings indicate that experiences of success are featured by personal satisfaction, constant need of feedback, high motivation in challenging situations, and emotions. Failure experiences are featured by frustration, helplessness, sense of humiliation, feeling of rejection, and lack of efficacy. Factors that promote and inhibit positive experiences relate to personal, personality, professional and organizational levels. Most teachers reported feeling like new immigrants, and demonstrated different models of the process of the first year of teaching. Further research is recommended on the factors that promote and inhibit positive experiences, and on 'The Missing Link' of the relationship between Teacher Education Programs and the practices in schools.

Keywords: first-year teaching, novice teachers, school practice, teacher education programs

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Authors: Bo-wen Zhu, Bin Wu, Feng Chen

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It has become a common measure among governments to support green development of enterprises through Green Credit policies. In China, the Central Bank of China and other authorities even put forward corresponding assessment requirements for proportion of green credit in commercial banks. Policy changes might raise concerns about commercial banks turning a blind eye to greenwashing behavior by enterprises. The lack of effective regulation may lead to a diffusion of such behavior, and eventually result in the phenomenon of “bad money driving out good money”, which could dampen the incentive effect of Green Credit policies. This paper employs a complex network model based on an evolutionary game analysis framework involving enterprises, banks, and regulatory authorities to investigate inhibitory effect of the Green Credit regulation on enterprises’ greenwashing behavior, banks’ opportunistic and collusive behaviors. The findings are as follows: (1) Banking opportunism rises with Green Credit evaluation criteria and requirements for the proportion of credit balance. Restrictive regulation against violating banks is necessary as there is an increasing trend of banks adopting opportunistic strategy. (2) Raising penalties and probability of regulatory inspections can effectively suppress banks’ opportunistic behavior, however, it cannot entirely eradicate the opportunistic behavior on the bank side. (3) Although maintaining a certain inspection probability can inhibit enterprises from adopting greenwashing behavior, enterprises choose a catering production strategy instead. (4) One-time rewards from local government have limited effects on the equilibrium state and diffusion trend of bank regulatory decision-making.

Keywords: green credit, greenwashing behavior, regulation, diffusion effect

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Authors: Shima Taheri, Simon Clark

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Concrete is an essential building material used in the majority of structures. Degradation of concrete over time increases the life-cycle cost of an asset with an estimated annual cost of billions of dollars to national economies. Most of the concrete failure occurs due to cracks, which propagate through a structure and cause weakening leading to failure. Stopping crack propagation is thus the key to protecting concrete structures from failure and is the best way to prevent inconveniences and catastrophes. Furthermore, the majority of cracks occur deep within the concrete in inaccessible areas and are invisible to normal inspection. Few materials intrinsically possess self-healing ability, but one that does is concrete. However, self-healing in concrete is limited to small dormant cracks in a moist environment and is difficult to control. In this project, we developed a method for self-healing of nascent fractures in concrete components through the automatic release of self-curing healing agents encapsulated in breakable nano- and micro-structures. The Poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) based two-part adhesive is encapsulated in core-shell structures with brittle/weak inert shell, synthesized via miniemulsion/solvent evaporation polymerization. Stress fields associated with propagating cracks can break these capsules releasing the healing agents at the point where they are needed. The shell thickness is playing an important role in preserving the content until the final setting of concrete. The capsules can also be surface functionalized with carboxyl groups to overcome the homogenous mixing issues. Currently, this formulated self-healing system can replace up to 1% of cement in a concrete formulation. Increasing this amount to 5-7% in the concrete formulation without compromising compression strength and shrinkage properties, is still under investigation. This self-healing system will not only increase the durability of structures by stopping crack propagation but also allow the use of less cement in concrete construction, thereby adding to the global effort for CO2 emission reduction.

Keywords: self-healing concrete, concrete crack, concrete deterioration, durability

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Authors: Michael Smalenberger

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Intelligent tutoring systems (ITS) are computer-based platforms which can incorporate artificial intelligence to provide step-by-step guidance as students practice problem-solving skills. ITS can replicate and even exceed some benefits of one-on-one tutoring, foster transactivity in collaborative environments, and lead to substantial learning gains when used to supplement the instruction of a teacher or when used as the sole method of instruction. A common facet of many ITS is their use of Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) to estimate parameters necessary for the implementation of the artificial intelligence component, and for the probability of mastery of a knowledge component relevant to the ITS. While various techniques exist to estimate these parameters and probability of mastery, none directly and reliably ask the user to self-assess these. In this study, 111 undergraduate students used an ITS in a college-level introductory statistics course for which detailed transaction-level observations were recorded, and users were also routinely asked direct questions that would lead to such a self-assessment. Comparisons were made between these self-assessed values and those obtained using commonly used estimation techniques. Our findings show that such self-assessments are particularly relevant at the early stages of ITS usage while transaction level data are scant. Once a user’s transaction level data become available after sufficient ITS usage, these can replace the self-assessments in order to eliminate the identifiability problem in BKT. We discuss how these findings are relevant to the number of exercises necessary to lead to mastery of a knowledge component, the associated implications on learning curves, and its relevance to instruction time.

Keywords: Bayesian Knowledge Tracing, Intelligent Tutoring System, in vivo study, parameter estimation

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Authors: Ren Moses, Emmanuel Kidando, Eren Ozguven, Yassir Abdelrazig

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Although older drivers (defined as those of age 65 and above) are less involved with speeding, alcohol use as well as night driving, they are more vulnerable to severe crashes. The major contributing factors for severe crashes include frailty and medical complications. Several studies have evaluated the contributing factors on severity of crashes. However, few studies have established the impact of travel time reliability (TTR) on road safety. In particular, the impact of TTR on senior adults who face several challenges including hearing difficulties, decreasing of the processing skills and cognitive problems in driving is not well established. Therefore, this study focuses on determining possible impacts of TTR on the traffic safety with focus on elderly drivers. Historical travel speed data from freeway links in the study area were used to calculate travel time and the associated TTR metrics that is, planning time index, the buffer index, the standard deviation of the travel time and the probability of congestion. Four-year information on crashes occurring on these freeway links was acquired. The binary logit model estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling technique was used to evaluate variables that could be influencing elderly crash severity. Preliminary results of the analysis suggest that TTR is statistically significant in affecting the severity of a crash involving an elderly driver. The result suggests that one unit increase in the probability of congestion reduces the likelihood of the elderly severe crash by nearly 22%. These findings will enhance the understanding of TTR and its impact on the elderly crash severity.

Keywords: highway safety, travel time reliability, elderly drivers, traffic modeling

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Authors: Panarat Saengpanya

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There were five objectives in this study including the study of housing type with water environment, the physical and mechanical properties of the buoy material, the mechanical properties of the buoy models, the floating of the buoy models and the relationship between the civil engineering parameters and the floating of the buoy. The buoy examples made from Expanded Polystyrene (EPS) covered by 5 mm thickness of mortar with the equal thickness on each side. Specimens are 0.05 m cubes tested at a displacement rate of 0.005 m/min. The existing test method used to assess the parameters relationship is ASTM C 109 to provide comparative results. The results found that the three type of housing with water environment were Stilt Houses, Boat House, and Floating House. EPS is a lightweight material that has been used in engineering applications since at least the 1950s. Its density is about a hundredth of that of mortar, while the mortar strength was found 72 times of EPS. One of the advantage of composite is that two or more materials could be combined to take advantage of the good characteristics of each of the material. The strength of the buoy influenced by mortar while the floating influenced by EPS. Results showed the buoy example compressed under loading. The Stress-Strain curve showed the high secant modulus before reached the peak value. The failure occurred within 10% strain then the strength reduces while the strain was continuing. It was observed that the failure strength reduced by increasing the total volume of examples. For the buoy examples with same area, an increase of the failure strength is found when the high dimension is increased. The results showed the relationship between five parameters including the floating level, the bearing capacity, the volume, the high dimension and the unit weight. The study found increases in high of buoy lead to corresponding decreases in both modulus and compressive strength. The total volume and the unit weight had relationship with the bearing capacity of the buoy.

Keywords: floating house, buoy, floating structure, EPS

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Authors: Ralene Sim, Stefan Mueller, N. Gopalakrishna Iyer, Ngian Chye Tan, Khee Chee Soo, R. Shetty Mahalakshmi, Hiang Khoon Tan

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Background: Regional failure in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is managed by salvage treatment in the form of neck dissection. Radical neck dissection (RND) is preferred over modified radical neck dissection (MRND) since it is traditionally believed to offer better long-term disease control. However, with the advent of more advanced imaging modalities like high-resolution Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Computed Tomography, and Positron Emission Tomography-CT scans, earlier detection is achieved. Additionally, concurrent chemotherapy also contributes to reduced tumour burden. Hence, there may be a lesser need for an RND and a greater role for MRND. With this retrospective study, the primary aim is to ascertain whether MRND, as opposed to RND, has similar outcomes and hence, whether there would be more grounds to offer a less aggressive procedure to achieve lower patient morbidity. Methods: This is a retrospective study of 66 NPC patients treated at Singapore General Hospital between 1994 to 2016 for histologically proven regional recurrence, of which 41 patients underwent RND and 25 who underwent MRND, based on surgeon preference. The type of ND performed, primary treatment mode, adjuvant treatment, and pattern of recurrence were reviewed. Overall survival (OS) was calculated using Kaplan-Meier estimate and compared. Results: Overall, the disease parameters such as nodal involvement and extranodal extension were comparable between the two groups. Comparing MRND and RND, the median (IQR) OS is 1.76 (0.58 to 3.49) and 2.41 (0.78 to 4.11) respectively. However, the p-value found is 0.5301 and hence not statistically significant. Conclusion: RND is more aggressive and has been associated with greater morbidity. Hence, with similar outcomes, MRND could be an alternative salvage procedure for regional failure in selected NPC patients, allowing similar salvage rates with lesser mortality and morbidity.

Keywords: nasopharyngeal carcinoma, neck dissection, modified neck dissection, radical neck dissection

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Authors: Antoaneta Stefanova, Rositsa Gencheva, Pavlin Groudev

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This paper presents the modeling approach in SBO sequence for VVER 1000 reactors and describes the reactor core behavior at late in-vessel phase in case of late reflooding by HPIS and gives preliminary results for the ASTECv2 validation. The work is focused on investigation of plant behavior during total loss of power and the operator actions. The main goal of these analyses is to assess the phenomena arising during the Station blackout (SBO) followed by primary side high pressure injection system (HPIS) reflooding of already damaged reactor core at very late ‘in-vessel’ phase. The purpose of the analysis is to define how the later HPIS switching on can delay the time of vessel failure or possibly avoid vessel failure. For this purpose has been simulated an SBO scenario with injection of cold water by a high pressure pump (HPP) in cold leg at different stages of core degradation. The times for HPP injection were chosen based on previously performed investigations.

Keywords: VVER, operator action validation, reflooding of overheated reactor core, ASTEC computer code

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Authors: Paul Han, Jun-Geol Baek

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In the flat panel display industry, the scheduler and dispatching system to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production are the major production management system which controls each facility production order and distribution of WIP (Work in Process). In dispatching system, delivery time is a key factor for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors and a forecasting model of delivery time. Of survival analysis techniques to select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the Mean Square Error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the existing prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing a delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.

Keywords: delivery time, survival analysis, Cox PH model, accelerated failure time model

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Authors: Gebrekiros Welegebriel Asfaw

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The management of the fragile, unique and irreplaceable cultural heritage from different perspectives is becoming a major challenge as important elements of culture are vanishing throughout the globe. The major purpose of this study is to assess how the cultural heritages of Aksum are managed for their future sustainability from heritage conservation and interpretation perspectives. Descriptive type of research design inculcating both quantitative and qualitative research methods is employed. Primary quantitative data was collected from 189 respondents (19 professionals, 88 tourism service providers and 82 tourists) and interview was conducted with 33 targeted informants from heritage and related professions, security employees, local community, service providers and church representatives by applying probability and non probability sampling methods. Findings of the study reveal that the overall sustainable management status of the cultural heritage of Aksum is below average. It is found that the sustainability of cultural heritage management in Aksum is facing a lot of unfavorable factors like lack of long term planning, incompatible system of heritage administration, limited capacity and number of professionals, scant attention to community based heritage and tourism development, dirtiness and drainage problems, problems with stakeholder involvement and cooperation, lack of organized interpretation and presentation systems and others. So, re-organization of the management system, creating platform for coordination among stakeholders and developing appropriate interpretation system can be good remedies. Introducing community based heritage and tourism development concept is also recommendable for a long term win-win success in Aksum.

Keywords: Aksum, conservation, interpretation, Sustainable Cultural Heritage Management

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Authors: Anna Siuda-Bak

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This paper adopts a comparative approach to examining the determinants of international mobility of German, Italian and British researchers who completed their doctoral education in the UK. Structured sampling and data collection techniques have been developed in order to retrieve information on participants from publicly available sources. This systematically collected data was supplemented with an on-line survey which captures participants’ job trajectories, including movements between positions, institutions and countries. In total, data on 949 German, Italian and British PhDs was collected. Logistic regression was employed to identify factors associated with one’s probability of moving outside the UK after his or her graduation. The predictor variables included factors associated with one’s PhD (field of study, ranking of the university which awarded the PhD degree) and family factors (having a child, nationality of the partner). Then, 9 constrained models were estimated to test the effect each variable has on probability of going to a specific destination, being English-speaking country, non-English speaking country or returning to the home country. The results show that females, arts and humanities graduates, and respondents with a partner from the UK are less mobile than their counterparts. The effect of the ranking of the university differed in two groups. The UK graduates from higher ranked universities were more likely to move abroad than to stay in the UK after their graduation. In contrast, non-UK natives from the same universities were less likely to be internationally mobile than non-UK natives from lower ranked universities. The nationality of the partner was the most important predictor of the specific destination choices. Graduates with partner from the home county were more likely to return home and those with a partner from the third country least likely to return.

Keywords: doctoral graduates, international mobility, nationality, UK

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