Search results for: comprehensive model

Authors: T. M. Ismail, M. A. El-Salam

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A mathematical model study was carried out to investigate gasification of biomass fuels using high-temperature air and steam as a gasifying agent using high-temperature air up to 1000°C. In this study, a 2D computational fluid dynamics model was developed to study the gasification process in an updraft gasifier, considering drying, pyrolysis, combustion, and gasification reactions. The gas and solid phases were resolved using a Euler−Euler multiphase approach, with exchange terms for the momentum, mass, and energy. The standard k−ε turbulence model was used in the gas phase, and the particle phase was modeled using the kinetic theory of granular flow. The results show that the present model giving a promising way in its capability and sensitivity for the parameter effects that influence the gasification process.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, gasification, biomass fuel, fixed bed gasifier

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Authors: Dheyaa Wajid Abbood, Hanan Hussien Abood

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Stepped cascade has been utilized as a hydraulic structure for years. It has proven to be the least costly aeration system in replenishing dissolved oxygen. Numerical modeling of stepped cascade with end sill is very complicated and challenging because of the high roughness and velocity re circulation regions. Volume of fluid multiphase flow model (VOF) is used .The realizable k-ξ model is chosen to simulate turbulence. The computational results are compared with lab-scale stepped cascade data. The lab –scale model was constructed in the hydraulic laboratory, Al-Mustansiriya University, Iraq. The stepped cascade was 0.23 m wide and consisted of 3 steps each 0.2m high and 0.6 m long with variable end sill. The discharge was varied from 1 to 4 l/s. ANSYS has been employed to simulate the experimental data and their related results. This study shows that ANSYS is able to predict results almost the same as experimental findings in some regions of the structure.

Keywords: stepped cascade weir, aeration, multiphase flow model, ansys

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Authors: R. Monteiro, A. Abarca

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Large scale seismic risk assessment has become increasingly popular to evaluate the physical vulnerability of a given region to seismic events, by putting together hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. This study, developed within the scope of the EU-funded project ITERATE (Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria), explains the steps and expected results for the development of an integrated seismic risk model for assessment of the vulnerability of residential buildings in Northern Algeria. For this purpose, the model foresees the consideration of an updated seismic hazard model, as well as ad-hoc exposure and physical vulnerability models for local residential buildings. The first results of this endeavor, such as the hazard model and a specific taxonomy to be used for the exposure and fragility components of the model are presented, using as starting point the province of Blida, in Algeria. Specific remarks and conclusions regarding the characteristics of the Northern Algerian in-built are then made based on these results.

Keywords: Northern Algeria, risk, seismic hazard, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 197

Authors: M. Kharazmi, M. Zakeri, M. Packirisamy, J. Faraji

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Micro/Nanorobotics or manipulation of nanoparticles by Atomic Force Microscopic (AFM) is one of the most important solutions for controlling the movement of atoms, particles and micro/nano metrics components and assembling of them to design micro/nano-meter tools. Accurate modelling of manipulation requires identification of forces and mechanical knowledge in the Nanoscale which are different from macro world. Due to the importance of the adhesion forces and the interaction of surfaces at the nanoscale several friction models were presented. In this research, friction and normal forces that are applied on the AFM by using of the dynamic bending-torsion model of AFM are obtained based on Hurtado-Kim friction model (HK), Johnson-Kendall-Robert contact model (JKR) and Greenwood-Williamson roughness model (GW). Finally, the effect of standard deviation of asperities height on the normal load, friction force and friction coefficient are studied.

Keywords: atomic force microscopy, contact model, friction coefficient, Greenwood-Williamson model

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Authors: Pouya Molana, Zeinab Alimohammadi

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Determining wind wave characteristics is essential for implementing projects related to Coastal and Marine engineering such as designing coastal and marine structures, estimating sediment transport rates and coastal erosion rates in order to predict significant wave height (H_s), this study applies the third generation spectral wave model, Mike 21 SW, along with CEM model. For SW model calibration and verification, two data sets of meteorology and wave spectroscopy are used. The model was exposed to time-varying wind power and the results showed that difference ratio mean, standard deviation of difference ratio and correlation coefficient in SW model for H_s parameter are 1.102, 0.279 and 0.983, respectively. Whereas, the difference ratio mean, standard deviation and correlation coefficient in The Choice Experiment Method (CEM) for the same parameter are 0.869, 1.317 and 0.8359, respectively. Comparing these expected results it is revealed that the Choice Experiment Method CEM has more errors in comparison to MIKE 21 SW third generation spectral wave model and higher correlation coefficient does not necessarily mean higher accuracy.

Keywords: MIKE 21 SW, CEM method, significant wave height, difference ratio

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Authors: Sibel Celik, Hüseyin Ergin

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The paper aims to find the best volatility forecasting model for stock markets in Turkey. For this purpose, we compare performance of different volatility models-both traditional GARCH model and high frequency based volatility models- and conclude that both in pre-crisis and crisis period, the performance of high frequency based volatility models are better than traditional GARCH model. The findings of paper are important for policy makers, financial institutions and investors.

Keywords: volatility, GARCH model, realized volatility, high frequency data

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Authors: Ashley Wei-Ting Wang, Wen-Yau Hsu

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Objectives: The current study applies and expands the Tripartite Model to elaborate the link between non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) and suicidal behavior. We propose a structural model of NSSI and suicidal risk, in which negative affect (NA) predicts both anxiety and depression, positive affect (PA) predicts depression only, anxiety is linked to NSSI, and depression is linked to suicidal risk. Method: Four hundreds and eighty seven undergraduates participated. Data were collected by administering self-report questionnaires. We performed hierarchical regression and structural equation modeling to test the proposed structural model. Results: The results largely support the proposed structural model, with one exception: anxiety was strongly associated with NSSI and to a lesser extent with suicidal risk. Conclusions: We conclude that the co-occurrence of NSSI and suicidal risk is due to NA and anxiety, and suicidal risk can be differentiated by depression. Further theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Keywords: non-suicidal self-injury, suicidal risk, anxiety, depression, the tripartite model, hierarchical relationship

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Authors: M. Rahimi, F. Corman

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This paper study the travel behavior of passengers in a public transport disruption under information provision strategies. We develop a within-day approach for multi-agent simulation to evaluate the behavior of the agents, under comprehensive scenarios through various information exposure, equilibrium, and non-equilibrium scenarios. In particular, we quantify the effects of information strategies in disruption situation on passengers’ satisfaction, number of involved agents, and the caused delay. An agent-based micro-simulation model (MATSim) is applied for the city of Zürich, Switzerland, for the purpose of activity-based simulation in a multimodal network. Statistic outcome is analysed for all the agents who may be involved in the disruption. Agents’ movement in the public transport network illustrates agents’ adaptations to available information about the disruption. Agents’ delays and utility reveal that information significantly affects agents’ satisfaction and delay in public transport disruption. Besides, while the earlier availability of the information causes the fewer consequent delay for the involved agents, however, it also leads to more amount of affected agents.

Keywords: agent-based simulation, disruption management, passengers’ behavior simulation, public transport

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Authors: Shih-Kuei Lin

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The characterization of the arbitrage-free dynamics of interest rates is developed in this study under the presence of Markov jump risks, when the term structure of the interest rates is modeled through simple forward rates. We consider Markov jump risks by allowing randomness in jump sizes, independence between jump sizes and jump times. The Markov jump diffusion model is used to capture empirical phenomena and to accurately describe interest jump risks in a financial market. We derive the arbitrage-free model of simple forward rates under the spot measure. Moreover, the analytical pricing formulas for a cap and a floor are derived under the forward measure when the jump size follows a lognormal distribution. In our empirical analysis, we find that the LIBOR market model with Markov jump risk better accounts for changes from/to different states and different rates.

Keywords: arbitrage-free, cap and floor, Markov jump diffusion model, simple forward rate model, volatility smile, EM algorithm

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Authors: Christopher Godwin Udomboso, Angela Unna Chukwu, Isaac Kwame Dontwi

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In selecting a Statistical Neural Network model, the Network Information Criterion (NIC) has been observed to be sample biased, because it does not account for sample sizes. The selection of a model from a set of fitted candidate models requires objective data-driven criteria. In this paper, we derived and investigated the Adjusted Network Information Criterion (ANIC), based on Kullback’s symmetric divergence, which has been designed to be an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the expected Kullback-Leibler information of a fitted model. The analyses show that on a general note, the ANIC improves model selection in more sample sizes than does the NIC.

Keywords: statistical neural network, network information criterion, adjusted network, information criterion, transfer function

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Authors: J. Fernandez, N. Aguilar, R. Fernandez de Canete, J. C. Ramos-Diaz

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In this paper, a simulation model of the glucose-insulin system for a patient undergoing diabetes Type 1 is developed by using a causal modeling approach under system dynamics. The OpenModelica simulation environment has been employed to build the so called causal model, while the glucose-insulin model parameters were adjusted to fit recorded mean data of a diabetic patient database. Model results under different conditions of a three-meal glucose and exogenous insulin ingestion patterns have been obtained. This simulation model can be useful to evaluate glucose-insulin performance in several circumstances, including insulin infusion algorithms in open-loop and decision support systems in closed-loop.

Keywords: causal modeling, diabetes, glucose-insulin system, diabetes, causal modeling, OpenModelica software

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Authors: Tareq Oshan

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Facility location and size decisions are important to any company because they affect profitability and success. However, warehouses are exposed to various risks of failure that affect their activity. This paper presents a mixed-integer non-linear mathematical model that can be used to determine optimal warehouse locations and sizes, which warehouses to fortify, and which branches should be assigned to specific warehouses when there is a risk of warehouse failure. Every branch is assigned to a fortified primary warehouse or a nonfortified primary warehouse and a fortified backup warehouse. The standard method and an introduced method, based on the average probabilities, for linearizing this mathematical model were used. A Canadian case study was used to demonstrate the developed mathematical model, followed by some sensitivity analysis.

Keywords: supply chain network design, fortified warehouse, mixed-integer mathematical model, warehouse failure risk

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Authors: K. S. Sivakumaran, T. Thanga, B. Halabieh

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The end panels of a large rectangular industrial duct, which experience significant internal pressures, also experience considerable transverse shear due to transfer of gravity loads to the supports. The current design practice of such thin plate panels for shear load is based on methods used for the design of plate girder webs. The structural arrangements, the loadings and the resulting behavior associated with the industrial duct end panels are, however, significantly different than those of the web of a plate girder. The large aspect ratio of the end panels gives rise to multiple bands of tension fields, whereas the plate girder web design is based on one tension field. In addition to shear, the industrial end panels are subjected to internal pressure which in turn produces significant membrane action. This paper reports a study which was undertaken to review the current industrial analysis and design methods and to propose a comprehensive method of designing industrial duct end panels for shear resistance. In this investigation, a nonlinear finite element model was developed to simulate the behavior of industrial duct end panel subjected to transverse shear and internal pressures. The model considered the geometric imperfections and constitutive relations for steels. Six scale independent dimensionless parameters that govern the behavior of such end panel were identified and were then used in an extensive parametric study. It was concluded that the plate slenderness dominates the shear strength of stockier end panels, and whereas, the aspect ratio and plate slenderness influence the shear strength of slender end panels. Based on these studies, this paper proposes design aids for estimating the shear strength of rectangular duct end panels.

Keywords: thin plate, transverse shear, tension field, finite element analysis, parametric study, design

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Authors: K. M. Anusha, R. Krishnaveni

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Crossing a decade of the 21st century, the paradigm of human resources can be seen evolving with the strategic gene induced into it. There seems to be a radical shift descending as the corporate sector calls on its HR team to become strategic rather than administrative. This transferal eventually requires the metrics employed by these HR teams not to be just operationally reactive but to be aligned to an evidence-based strategic thinking. Realizing the growing need for a prescriptive metric model for effective HR analytics, this study has designed a conceptual framework for a basic metric model that can assist IT-HRM professionals to transition to a practice of evidence-based decision-making to enhance organizational performance.

Keywords: metric model, evidence based HR, HR analytics, strategic HR practices, IT sector

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Authors: Nikolaos Reppas, Yilin Gui

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A dual-porosity finite element-code will be presented for the stability analysis of the wellbore during CO₂ injection. An elastoplastic damage response will be considered to the model. The Finite Element Method (FEM) will be validated using experimental results from literature or from experiments that are planned to be undertaken at Newcastle University. The main target of the research paper is to present a constitutive model that can help industries to safely store CO₂ in geological rock formations and forecast any changes on the surrounding rock of the wellbore. The fully coupled elastoplastic damage Thermo-Hydraulic-Mechanical (THM) model will determine the pressure and temperature of the injected CO₂ as well as the size of the radius of the wellbore that can make the Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) procedure more efficient.

Keywords: carbon capture and storage, Wellbore stability, elastoplastic damage response for rock, constitutive THM model, fully coupled thermo-hydraulic-mechanical model

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Authors: Helen Pluut, Remus Ilies, Nikos Dimotakis, Maral Darouei

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This study aims to examine recovery from work as an important daily activity with implications for workplace behavior. Building on affective events theory and the stressor-detachment model as frameworks, this paper proposes and tests a comprehensive within-individual model that uncovers the role of recovery processes at home in linking workplace demands (e.g., workload) and stressors (e.g., workplace incivility) to next-day organizational citizenship behaviors (OCBs). Our sample consisted of 126 full-time employees in a large Midwestern University. For a period of 16 working days, these employees were asked to fill out 3 electronic surveys while at work. The first survey (sent out in the morning) measured self-reported sleep quality, recovery experiences the previous day at home, and momentary effect. The second survey (sent out close to the end of the workday) measured job demands and stressors as well as OCBs, while the third survey in the evening assessed job strain. Data were analyzed using Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM). Results indicated that job demands and stressors at work made it difficult to unwind properly at home and have a good night’s sleep, which had repercussions for next day’s morning effect, which, in turn, influenced OCBs. It can be concluded that processes of recovery are vital to an individual’s daily effective functioning and behavior at work, but recovery may become impaired after a hard day’s work. Thus, our study sheds light on the potentially persistent nature of strain experienced as a result of work and points to the importance of recovery processes to enable individuals to avoid such cross-day spillover. Our paper will discuss this implication for theory and practice as well as potential directions for future research.

Keywords: affect, job demands, organizational citizenship behavior, recovery, strain

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Authors: N. Guo, C. Xu, Z. C. Yang

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In order to ensure the high reliability of an aircraft, the accurate structural dynamics analysis has become an indispensable part in the design of an aircraft structure. Therefore, the structural finite element model which can be used to accurately calculate the structural dynamics and their transfer relations is the prerequisite in structural dynamic design. A dynamic finite element model updating method is presented to correct the uncertain parameters of the finite element model of a structure using measured modal parameters. The coordinate modal assurance criterion is used to evaluate the correlation level at each coordinate over the experimental and the analytical mode shapes. Then, the weighted summation of the natural frequency residual and the coordinate modal assurance criterion residual is used as the objective function. Moreover, the hybrid pattern search (HPS) optimization technique, which synthesizes the advantages of pattern search (PS) optimization technique and genetic algorithm (GA), is introduced to solve the dynamic FE model updating problem. A numerical simulation and a model updating experiment for GARTEUR aircraft model are performed to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the present dynamic model updating method, respectively. The updated results show that the proposed method can be successfully used to modify the incorrect parameters with good robustness.

Keywords: model updating, modal parameter, coordinate modal assurance criterion, hybrid genetic/pattern search

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Authors: Jin Sung Kim, Hoon Huh

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The material properties of OFHC copper film was investigated with the High-Speed Material Micro Testing Machine (HSMMTM) at the high strain rates. The rate-dependent stress-strain curves from the experiment and the Johnson-Cook curve fitting showed large discrepancies as the plastic strain increases since the constitutive model implies no rate-dependent strain hardening effect. A new constitutive model was proposed in consideration of rate-dependent strain hardening effect. The strain rate hardening term in the new constitutive model consists of the strain rate sensitivity coefficients of the yield strength and strain hardening.

Keywords: rate dependent material properties, dynamic constitutive model, OFHC copper film, strain rate

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

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Risk management in banking sector is a key issue linked to financial system stability and its importance has been elevated by technological developments and emergence of new financial instruments. In this paper, we improve the model previously defined for quantifying internal control impact on banking risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA. For this, we defined three equations and a maturity coefficient to obtain a mathematical model which is tested on all banking processes and type of risks. The new model allows an optimal assessment of residual criticality and improves the correlation rate that has become 98%.

Keywords: risk, control, banking, FMECA, criticality

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Authors: Fernando P. Silva, Valter J. S. Leite, Erivelton G. Nepomuceno

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In this paper, a nonlinear controller design for an omnidirectional mobile is presented. The robot controller consists of an inner-loop controller and an outer-loop controller, the first is designed using state feedback (robust allocation) and the second controller is designed based on Robust Multi Inversion (RMI) approach. The objective of RMI controller is rendering the robust inversion of the dynamic, when the model is affected by uncertainties. A model nonlinear MIMO of an omni-directional robot (small-league of Robocup) is used to simulate the RMI approach. The parameters of linear and nonlinear model are varied to cause modelling uncertainties among the model and the real model (real system) generating an error in inner-loop controller signal that must be compensated by RMI controller. The simulation test results show that the RMI is capable of compensating the uncertainties and keep the system stable and controlled under uncertainties.

Keywords: robust multi inversion, omni-directional robot, robocup, nonlinear control

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Authors: Farzad Khajavi, Farzaneh Jalilfar, Faranak Jafari, Leila Shokrani

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Formulation of gliclazide in the form of extended-release tablet in 30 and 60 mg dosage forms was performed using hypromellose (HPMC K4M) as a retarding agent. Drug-release profiles were investigated in comparison with references Diamicron MR 30 and 60 mg tablets. The effect of size of powder particles, the amount of hypromellose in formulation, hardness of tablets, and also the effect of halving the tablets were investigated on drug release profile. A mathematical model which describes hypromellose behavior in initial times of drug release was proposed for the estimation of hypromellose content in modified-release gliclazide 60 mg tablet. This model is based on erosion of hypromellose in dissolution media. The model is applicable to describe release profiles of insoluble drugs. Therefore, by using dissolved amount of drug in initial times of dissolution and the model, the amount of hypromellose in formulation can be predictable. The model was used to predict the HPMC K4M content in modified-release gliclazide 30 mg and extended-release quetiapine 200 mg tablets.

Keywords: Gliclazide, hypromellose, drug release, modified-release tablet, mathematical model

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Authors: Yasmeen A. S. Essawy, Khaled Nassar

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With the rapid increase of complexity in the building industry, professionals in the A/E/C industry were forced to adopt Building Information Modeling (BIM) in order to enhance the communication between the different project stakeholders throughout the project life cycle and create a semantic object-oriented building model that can support geometric-topological analysis of building elements during design and construction. This paper presents a model that extracts topological relationships and geometrical properties of building elements from an existing fully designed BIM, and maps this information into a directed acyclic Elemental Graph Data Model (EGDM). The model incorporates BIM-based search algorithms for automatic deduction of geometrical data and topological relationships for each building element type. Using graph search algorithms, such as Depth First Search (DFS) and topological sortings, all possible construction sequences can be generated and compared against production and construction rules to generate an optimized construction sequence and its associated schedule. The model is implemented in a C# platform.

Keywords: building information modeling (BIM), elemental graph data model (EGDM), geometric and topological data models, graph theory

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Authors: Masato Nishi, Tetsushi Kaburagi, Masashi Kurose, Tei Hirashima, Tetsusei Kurasiki

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The process of thermoforming a carbon fiber reinforced thermoplastic (CFRTP) has increased its presence in the automotive industry for its wide applicability to the mass production car. A non-isothermal forming for CFRTP can shorten its cycle time to less than 1 minute. In this paper, the textile reinforcement FE model which the authors proposed in a previous work is extended to the CFRTP model for non-isothermal forming simulation. The effect of thermoplastic is given by adding shell elements which consider thermal effect to the textile reinforcement model. By applying Reuss model to the stress calculation of thermoplastic, the proposed model can accurately predict in-plane shear behavior, which is the key deformation mode during forming, in the range of the process temperature. Using the proposed model, thermoforming simulation was conducted and the results are in good agreement with the experimental results.

Keywords: carbon fiber reinforced thermoplastic, finite element analysis, pre-impregnated textile composite, non-isothermal forming

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Authors: Lauren Provost

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The digital world remains increasingly vulnerable, making the development of effective cybersecurity approaches even more critical in supporting the success of the digital economy and national security. Although approaches to cybersecurity have shifted and improved in the last decade with new models, especially with cloud computing and mobility, a record number of high severity vulnerabilities were recorded in the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), and its National Vulnerability Database (NVD) in 2020. This is due, in part, to the increasing complexity of cyber ecosystems. Security must be approached with a more comprehensive, multi-tool strategy that addresses the complexity of cyber ecosystems, including the human factor. Ethical hacking has emerged as such an approach: a more effective, multi-strategy, comprehensive approach to cyber security's most pressing needs, especially understanding the human factor. Research on ethical hacking, however, is limited in scope. The two main objectives of this work are to (1) provide highlights of case studies in ethical hacking, (2) provide a conceptual framework for research in ethical hacking that embraces and addresses both technical and nontechnical security measures. Recommendations include an improved conceptual framework for research centered on ethical hacking that addresses many factors and attributes of significant attacks that threaten computer security; a more robust, integrative multi-layered framework embracing the complexity of cybersecurity ecosystems.

Keywords: ethical hacking, literature review, penetration testing, social engineering

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Authors: Alexey Abilov

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Sociological research in the form of a questionnaire survey of the population in the last decade has become an essential part of a comprehensive assessment of the territory in the practice of urban planning in Kazakhstan. This method was successfully used for developing master plans of settlements, urban agglomerations, and projects of detailed planning of individual sections of the urban environment. Also, it greatly contributes to the objectification of design solutions, since in addition to the traditional expert multifactorial assessment of urban development territories by professional designers, they provide an opportunity to consider existing urban development problems at the local level from the inside, through the eyes of the living population. A comparison of two areas of assessment of the territory -expert and social- allows us to give a more balanced final assessment, which can serve as a strong basis for making correct design decisions. The author of the article shows this by the example of the social assessment of the territory of the Almaty urban agglomeration in the form of a questionnaire survey of the population conducted in order to assess the quality of the living environment of the population, preferences in place and forms of recreation, as well as to delimitation the boundaries of the agglomeration. At the same time, the author's methodology of qualitative and quantitative assessment of the territory divided into polling stations is used, based on a comparison of the percentage of respondents' responses to various questionnaire questions with the total number of respondents.

Keywords: social assessment of territory, comprehensive assessment, urban agglomeration, correct design decisions

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Authors: Davies Obaromi, Qin Yongsong, James Ndege, Azeez Adeboye, Akinwumi Odeyemi

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The basic model usually used in disease mapping, is the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model and which combines the spatially structured and spatially unstructured priors as random effects. Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model is a disease mapping method that is commonly used for smoothening the relative risk of any disease as used in the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model. This model (CAR), which is also usually assigned as a prior to one of the spatial random effects in the BYM model, successfully uses information from adjacent sites to improve estimates for individual sites. To our knowledge, there are some unrealistic or counter-intuitive consequences on the posterior covariance matrix of the CAR prior for the spatial random effects. In the conventional BYM (Besag, York and Mollie) model, the spatially structured and the unstructured random components cannot be seen independently, and which challenges the prior definitions for the hyperparameters of the two random effects. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to construct and utilize an extended Bayesian spatial CAR model for studying tuberculosis patterns in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, and then compare for flexibility with some existing CAR models. The results of the study revealed the flexibility and robustness of this alternative extended CAR to the commonly used CAR models by comparison, using the deviance information criteria. The extended Bayesian spatial CAR model is proved to be a useful and robust tool for disease modeling and as a prior for the structured spatial random effects because of the inclusion of an extra hyperparameter.

Keywords: Besag2, CAR models, disease mapping, INLA, spatial models

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Authors: H. Ahmed, A. Schlenkhoff

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Recently, permeable breakwaters have been suggested to overcome the disadvantages of fully protection breakwaters. These protection structures have minor impacts on the coastal environment and neighboring beaches where they provide a more economical protection from waves and currents. For regular waves, a numerical model is used (FLOW-3D, VOF) to investigate the hydraulic performance of a permeable breakwater. The model of permeable breakwater consists of a pair of identical vertical slotted walls with an impermeable upper and lower part, where the draft is a decimal multiple of the total depth. The middle part is permeable with a porosity of 50%. The second barrier is located at distant of 0.5 and 1.5 of the water depth from the first one. The numerical model is validated by comparisons with previous laboratory data and semi-analytical results of the same model. A good agreement between the numerical results and both laboratory data and semi-analytical results has been shown and the results indicate the applicability of the numerical model to reproduce most of the important features of the interaction. Through the numerical investigation, the friction factor of the model is carefully discussed.

Keywords: coastal structures, permeable breakwater, slotted wall, numerical model, energy dissipation coefficient

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Authors: Maryam Maleki, Esther Mead, Mohammad Arani, Nitin Agarwal

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The proliferation of social media platforms like Twitter has heightened the consequences of the spread of misinformation. To understand and model the spread of misinformation, in this paper, we leveraged the SEIZ (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Skeptics) epidemiological model to describe the underlying process that delineates the spread of misinformation on Twitter. Compared to the other epidemiological models, this model produces broader results because it includes the additional Skeptics (Z) compartment, wherein a user may be Exposed to an item of misinformation but not engage in any reaction to it, and the additional Exposed (E) compartment, wherein the user may need some time before deciding to spread a misinformation item. We analyzed misinformation regarding the unrest in Washington, D.C. in the month of March 2020, which was propagated by the use of the #DCblackout hashtag by different users across the U.S. on Twitter. Our analysis shows that misinformation can be modeled using the concept of epidemiology. To the best of our knowledge, this research is the first to attempt to apply the SEIZ epidemiological model to the spread of a specific item of misinformation, which is a category distinct from that of rumor and hoax on online social media platforms. Applying a mathematical model can help to understand the trends and dynamics of the spread of misinformation on Twitter and ultimately help to develop techniques to quickly identify and control it.

Keywords: Black Lives Matter, epidemiological model, mathematical modeling, misinformation, SEIZ model, Twitter

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Authors: M. G. Shilina

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The interstate economic interaction phenomenon is complex. ‘Economic integration’, as one of its types, can be explored through the prism of international law, the theories of the world economy, politics and international relations. The most objective study of the phenomenon requires a comprehensive multifactoral approach. In new geopolitical realities, the problems of coexistence and possible interconnection of various mechanisms of interstate economic interaction are actively discussed. Currently, the Eurasian continent states support the direction to economic integration. At the same time, the existing international economic law fragmentation in Eurasia is seen as the important problem. The Eurasian space is characterized by a various types of interstate relations: international agreements (multilateral and bilateral), and a large number of cooperation formats (from discussion platforms to organizations aimed at deep integration). For their harmonization, it is necessary to have a clear vision to the phased international economic relations regulation options. In the conditions of rapid development of international economic relations, the modeling (including prognostic) can be optimally used as the main scientific method for presenting the phenomenon. On the basis of this method, it is possible to form the current situation vision and the best options for further action. In order to determine the most objective version of the integration development, the combination of several approaches were used. The normative legal approach- the descriptive method of legal modeling- was taken as the basis for the analysis. A set of legal methods was supplemented by the international relations science prognostic methods. The key elements of the model are the international economic organizations and states' associations existing in the Eurasian space (the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the European Union (EU), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Chinese project ‘One belt-one road’ (OBOR), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), BRICS, etc.). A general term for the elements of the model is proposed - the interstate interaction mechanisms (IIM). The aim of building a model of current and future Eurasian economic integration is to show optimal options for joint economic development of the states and IIMs. The long-term goal of this development is the new economic and political space, so-called the ‘Great Eurasian Community’. The process of achievement this long-term goal consists of successive steps. Modeling the integration architecture and dividing the interaction into stages led us to the following conclusion: the SCO is able to transform Eurasia into a single economic space. Gradual implementation of the complex phased model, in which the SCO+ plays a key role, will allow building an effective economic integration for all its participants, to create an economically strong community. The model can have practical value for politicians, lawyers, economists and other participants involved in the economic integration process. A clear, systematic structure can serve as a basis for further governmental action.

Keywords: economic integration, The Eurasian Economic Union, The European Union, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, The Silk Road Economic Belt

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Authors: Masood Beheshtirad

Abstract:

Identification of regions having potential for landslide occurrence is one of the basic measures in natural resources management. Different landslide hazard mapping models are proposed based on the environmental condition and goals. In this research landslide hazard map using multiple regression model were provided and applicability of this model is investigated in Baghdasht watershed. Dependent variable is landslide inventory map and independent variables consist of information layers as Geology, slope, aspect, distance from river, distance from road, fault and land use. For doing this, existing landslides have been identified and an inventory map made. The landslide hazard map is based on the multiple regression provided. The level of similarity potential hazard classes and figures of this model were compared with the landslide inventory map in the SPSS environments. Results of research showed that there is a significant correlation between the potential hazard classes and figures with area of the landslides. The multiple regression model is suitable for application in the Baghdasht Watershed.

Keywords: landslide, mapping, multiple model, regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 321