Search results for: stochastic volatility model

Authors: J. Leige Lopes, L. Aparecida Bastos, R. Monteiro da Silva

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The objective of this paper is to study the work of children and adolescents and the vicious circle of poverty from the perspective of Guinar Myrdal’s Theory of Circular Cumulative Causation. The objective is to show that if a person starts working in the juvenile phase of life they will be classified as poor or extremely poor when they are adult, which can to be observed in the case of Brazil, more specifically in the north and northeast. To do this, the methodology used was statistical and econometric analysis by applying a probit model. The main results show that: if people reside in the northeastern region of Brazil, and if they have a low educational level and if they start their professional life before the age 18, they will increase the likelihood that they will be poor or extremely poor. There is a consensus in the literature that one of the causes of the intergenerational transmission of poverty is related to child labor, this because when one starts their professional life while still in the toddler or adolescence stages of life, they end up sacrificing their studies. Because of their low level of education, children or adolescents are forced to perform low-paid functions and abandon school, becoming in the future, people who will be classified as poor or extremely poor. As a result of poverty, parents may be forced to send their children out to work when they are young, so that in the future they will also become poor adults, a process that is characterized as the "vicious circle of poverty."

Keywords: children, adolescents, Gunnar Myrdal, poverty, vicious circle

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Authors: Ismail Cengiz, Faruk Elaldi

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Within the scope of the study presented in this paper, load carrying capacity and buckling behavior of a stiffened aluminum panel designed by adopting current ‘buckle-resistant’ design application and ‘Post –Buckling’ design approach were investigated experimentally and numerically. The test specimen that is stabilized by Z-type stiffeners and manufactured from aluminum 2024 T3 Clad material was test under compression load. Buckling behavior was observed by means of 3 – dimensional digital image correlation (DIC) and strain gauge pairs. The experimental study was followed by developing an efficient and reliable finite element model whose ability to predict behavior of the stiffened panel used for compression test is verified by compering experimental and numerical results in terms of load – shortening curve, strain-load curves and buckling mode shapes. While finite element model was being constructed, non-linear behaviors associated with material and geometry was considered. Finally, applicability of aluminum stiffened panel in airframe design against to composite structures was evaluated thorough the concept of ‘Structural Efficiency’. This study reveals that considerable amount of weight saving could be gained if the concept of ‘post-buckling design’ is preferred to the already conventionally used ‘buckle resistant design’ concept in aircraft industry without scarifying any of structural integrity under load spectrum.

Keywords: post-buckling, stiffened panel, non-linear finite element method, aluminum, structural efficiency

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Authors: Abdallah M. Fayed

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The study area is located in south Darb El Arbaieen, western desert of Egypt. It occupies the area between latitudes 22° 00/ and 22° 30/ North and Longitudes 29° 30/ and 30° 00/ East, from southern border of Egypt to the area north Bir Kuraiym and from the area East of East Owienat to the area west Tushka district, its area about 2750 Km2. The famous features; southern part of Darb El Arbaieen road, G Baraqat El Scab El Qarra, Bir Dibis, Bir El Shab and Bir Kuraiym, Interpretation of soil stratification shows layers that are related to Quaternary and Upper-Lower Cretaceous eras. It is dissected by a series of NE-SW striking faults. The regional groundwater flow direction is in SW-NE direction with a hydraulic gradient is 1m / 2km. Mathematical model program has been applied for evaluation of groundwater potentials in the main Aquifer –Nubian Sandstone- in the area of study and Remote sensing technique is considered powerful, accurate and saving time in this respect. These techniques are widely used for illustrating and analysis different phenomenon such as the new development in the desert (land reclamation), residential development (new communities), urbanization, etc. The major issues concerning water development objective of this work is to determine the new development areas in western desert of Egypt during the period from 2003 to 2015 using remote sensing technique, the impacts of the present and future development have been evaluated by using the two-dimensional numerical groundwater flow Simulation Package (visual modflow 4.2). The package was used to construct and calibrate a numerical model that can be used to simulate the response of the aquifer in the study area under implementing different management alternatives in the form of changes in piezometric levels and salinity. Total period of simulation is 100 years. After steady state calibration, two different scenarios are simulated for groundwater development. 21 production wells are installed at the study area and used in the model, with the total discharge for the two scenarios were 105000 m3/d, 210000 m3/d. The drawdown was 11.8 m and 23.7 m for the two scenarios in the end of 100 year. Contour maps for water heads and drawdown and hydrographs for piezometric head are represented. The drawdown was less than the half of the saturated thickness (the safe yield case).

Keywords: remote sensing, management of aquifer systems, simulation modeling, western desert, South Darb El Arbaieen

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Authors: Lovro Štefan

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The main purpose of the present study was to investigate the associations between the overweight/obesity status and lifestyle factors. In this cross-sectional study, participants were 1950 urban secondary-school students (54.7% of female students) aged 17-18 years old. Dependent variable was body-mass index status derived from self-reported height and weight. The outcome was binarised, where participants with value <25 kg/m2 were collapsed into „normal“, while those ≥25 kg/m2 into „overweight/obesity“ category. Independent variables were gender, type of school, physical activity, sedentary behaviour, self-rated health, self-perceived socioeconomic status and psychological distress. The associations between the dependent and independent variables were analyzed by using multiple logistic regression analysis. In the univariate model, being overweight/obese was significantly associated with being a male student (OR 0.31; 95% CI 0.23 to 0.42), attending a vocational school (OR 1.87; 95% CI 1.42 to 2.48), not meeting the recommendations for moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (OR 0.44; 95% CI 0.22 to 0.88), more time spending in sedentary behaviour (OR 1.53; 95% CI 1.07 to 2.19), poor self-rated health (OR 0.35, 95% CI 0.20 to 0.56) and lower socioeconomic status (OR 0.63; 95% CI 0.48 to 0.84). In the multivariate model, the same associations occured between the dependent and independent variable. In both models, psychological distress was not associated with being overweight/obese. In conclusion, our findings suggest, that lifestyle factors are independently associated with body-mass index

Keywords: body mass index, secondary-school students, Croatia, physical activity, sedentary behaviour, logistic regression

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Authors: Rodolfo Alfonso, David Alonso, Albin Garcia, Jose Luis Alonso

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Recently a new kilovoltage radiotherapy unit model Xstrahl 200 - donated to the INOR´s Department of Radiotherapy (DR-INOR) in the framework of a IAEA's technical cooperation project- has been commissioned. This unit is able to treat shallow and low deep laying lesions, as it provides 8 discrete beam qualities, from 40 to 200 kV. As part of the patient-specific quality assurance program established at DR-INOR for external beam radiotherapy, it has been recommended to implement in vivo dose measurements (IVD), as they allow effectively discovering eventual errors or failures in the radiotherapy process. For that purpose a radio-photoluminescence (RPL) dosimetry system, model XXX, -also donated to DR-INOR by the same IAEA project- has been studied and commissioned. Main dosimetric parameters of the RPL system, such as reproducibility, linearity, and filed size influence were assessed. In a similar way, the response of radiochromic EBT3 type film was investigated for purposes of IVD. Both systems were calibrated in terms of entrance surface dose. Results of the dosimetric commissioning of RPL and EBT3 for IVD, and their pre-clinical implementation through end-to-end test cases are presented. The RPL dosimetry seems more recommendable for hyper-fractionated schemes with larger fields and curved patient contours, as those in chest wall irradiations, where the use of more than one dosimeter could be required. The radiochromic system involves smaller corrections with field size, but it sensibility is lower; hence it is more adequate for hypo-fractionated treatments with smaller fields.

Keywords: glass dosimetry, in vivo dosimetry, kilovotage radiotherapy, radiochromic dosimetry

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Authors: Lourdes Gutierrez, Eric Williams

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Post-occupancy research shows that only 11% of commercial buildings met the ASHRAE thermal comfort standard. Many buildings are too warm in winter and/or too cool in summer, wasting energy and not providing comfort. In this paper, potential energy savings in U.S. offices and restaurants if thermostat settings are calculated according the updated ASHRAE 55-2013 comfort model that accounts for outdoor temperature and clothing choice for different climate zones. eQUEST building models are calibrated to reproduce aggregate energy consumption as reported in the U.S. Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey. Changes in energy consumption due to the new settings are analyzed for 14 cities in different climate zones and then the results are extrapolated to estimate potential national savings. It is found that, depending on the climate zone, each degree increase in the summer saves 0.6 to 1.0% of total building electricity consumption. Each degree the winter setting is lowered saves 1.2% to 8.7% of total building natural gas consumption. With new thermostat settings, national savings are 2.5% of the total consumed in all office buildings and restaurants, summing up to national savings of 69.6 million GJ annually, comparable to all 2015 total solar PV generation in US. The goals of improved comfort and energy/economic savings are thus co-aligned, raising the importance of thermostat management as an energy efficiency strategy.

Keywords: energy savings quantifications, commercial building stocks, dynamic clothing insulation model, operation-focused interventions, energy management, thermal comfort, thermostat settings

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Authors: Boris Barbolyas, Kristina Buckova, Tomas Volensky, Cyril Belavy, Ladislav Dedik

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Background: Based on statokinezigram, the human balance control is often studied. Approach to human postural reaction analysis is based on a combination of stabilometry output signal with retroreflective marker data signal processing, analysis, and understanding, in this study. The study shows another original application of Method of Developed Statokinesigram Trajectory (MDST), too. Methods: In this study, the participants maintained quiet bipedal standing for 10 s on stabilometry platform. Consequently, bilateral vibration stimuli to Achilles tendons in 20 s interval was applied. Vibration stimuli caused that human postural system took the new pseudo-steady state. Vibration frequencies were 20, 60 and 80 Hz. Participant's body segments - head, shoulders, hips, knees, ankles and little fingers were marked by 12 retroreflective markers. Markers positions were scanned by six cameras system BTS SMART DX. Registration of their postural reaction lasted 60 s. Sampling frequency was 100 Hz. For measured data processing were used Method of Developed Statokinesigram Trajectory. Regression analysis of developed statokinesigram trajectory (DST) data and retroreflective marker developed trajectory (DMT) data were used to find out which marker trajectories most correlate with stabilometry platform output signals. Scaling coefficients (λ) between DST and DMT by linear regression analysis were evaluated, too. Results: Scaling coefficients for marker trajectories were identified for all body segments. Head markers trajectories reached maximal value and ankle markers trajectories had a minimal value of scaling coefficient. Hips, knees and ankles markers were approximately symmetrical in the meaning of scaling coefficient. Notable differences of scaling coefficient were detected in head and shoulders markers trajectories which were not symmetrical. The model of postural system behavior was identified by MDST. Conclusion: Value of scaling factor identifies which body segment is predisposed to postural instability. Hypothetically, if statokinesigram represents overall human postural system response to vibration stimuli, then markers data represented particular postural responses. It can be assumed that cumulative sum of particular marker postural responses is equal to statokinesigram.

Keywords: center of pressure (CoP), method of developed statokinesigram trajectory (MDST), model of postural system behavior, retroreflective marker data

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Authors: Najeh Lakhoua

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Introduction: Scientific developments and techniques for the systemic approach generate several names to the systemic approach: systems analysis, systems analysis, structural analysis. The main purpose of these reflections is to find a multi-disciplinary approach which organizes knowledge, creates universal language design and controls complex sets. In fact, system analysis is structured sequentially by steps: the observation of the system by various observers in various aspects, the analysis of interactions and regulatory chains, the modeling that takes into account the evolution of the system, the simulation and the real tests in order to obtain the consensus. Thus the system approach allows two types of analysis according to the structure and the function of the system. The purpose of this paper is to present an application of system analysis of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) components in order to represent the architecture of this system. Method: There are various analysis methods which are proposed, in the literature, in to carry out actions of global analysis and different points of view as SADT method (Structured Analysis and Design Technique), Petri Network. The methodology adopted in order to contribute to the system analysis of an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle has been proposed in this paper and it is based on the use of SADT. In fact, we present a functional analysis based on the SADT method of UAV components Body, power supply and platform, computing, sensors, actuators, software, loop principles, flight controls and communications). Results: In this part, we present the application of SADT method for the functional analysis of the UAV components. This SADT model will be composed exclusively of actigrams. It starts with the main function ‘To analysis of the UAV components’. Then, this function is broken into sub-functions and this process is developed until the last decomposition level has been reached (levels A1, A2, A3 and A4). Recall that SADT techniques are semi-formal; however, for the same subject, different correct models can be built without having to know with certitude which model is the good or, at least, the best. In fact, this kind of model allows users a sufficient freedom in its construction and so the subjective factor introduces a supplementary dimension for its validation. That is why the validation step on the whole necessitates the confrontation of different points of views. Conclusion: In this paper, we presented an application of system analysis of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle components. In fact, this application of system analysis is based on SADT method (Structured Analysis Design Technique). This functional analysis proved the useful use of SADT method and its ability of describing complex dynamic systems.

Keywords: system analysis, unmanned aerial vehicle, functional analysis, architecture

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Authors: Saifalarab A. Mohmmed, Morgana E. Vianna, Jonathan C. Knowles

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The issue of apical periodontitis has received considerable critical attention. Bacteria is integrated into communities, attached to surfaces and consequently form biofilm. The biofilm structure provides bacteria with a series protection skills against, antimicrobial agents and enhances pathogenicity (e.g. apical periodontitis). Sodium hypochlorite (NaOCl) has become the irrigant of choice for elimination of bacteria from the root canal system based on its antimicrobial findings. The aim of the study was to investigate the effect of different agitation techniques on the efficacy of 2.5% NaOCl to eliminate the biofilm from the surface of the lateral canal using the residual biofilm, and removal rate of biofilm as outcome measures. The effect of canal complexity (lateral canal) on the efficacy of the irrigation procedure was also assessed. Forty root canal models (n = 10 per group) were manufactured using 3D printing and resin materials. Each model consisted of two halves of an 18 mm length root canal with apical size 30 and taper 0.06, and a lateral canal of 3 mm length, 0.3 mm diameter located at 3 mm from the apical terminus. E. faecalis biofilms were grown on the apical 3 mm and lateral canal of the models for 10 days in Brain Heart Infusion broth. Biofilms were stained using crystal violet for visualisation. The model halves were reassembled, attached to an apparatus and tested under a fluorescence microscope. Syringe and needle irrigation protocol was performed using 9 mL of 2.5% NaOCl irrigant for 60 seconds. The irrigant was either left stagnant in the canal or activated for 30 seconds using manual (gutta-percha), sonic and ultrasonic methods. Images were then captured every second using an external camera. The percentages of residual biofilm were measured using image analysis software. The data were analysed using generalised linear mixed models. The greatest removal was associated with the ultrasonic group (66.76%) followed by sonic (45.49%), manual (43.97%), and passive irrigation group (control) (38.67%) respectively. No marked reduction in the efficiency of NaOCl to remove biofilm was found between the simple and complex anatomy models (p = 0.098). The removal efficacy of NaOCl on the biofilm was limited to the 1 mm level of the lateral canal. The agitation of NaOCl results in better penetration of the irrigant into the lateral canals. Ultrasonic agitation of NaOCl improved the removal of bacterial biofilm.

Keywords: 3D printing, biofilm, root canal irrigation, sodium hypochlorite

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Authors: Vemula Amalakrishna, S. Pushpavanam

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Change and motion characterize and persistently reshape the world around us, on scales from molecular to global. The subtle interplay between change (Reaction) and motion (Diffusion) gives rise to an astonishing intricate spatial or temporal pattern. These pattern formation in nature has been intellectually appealing for many scientists since antiquity. Periodic precipitation patterns, also known as Liesegang patterns (LP), are one of the stimulating examples of such self-assembling reaction-diffusion (RD) systems. LP formation has a great potential in micro and nanotechnology. So far, the research on LPs has been concentrated mostly on how these patterns are forming, retrieving information to build a universal mathematical model for them. Researchers have developed various theoretical models to comprehensively construct the geometrical diversity of LPs. To the best of our knowledge, simulation studies of LPs assume an arbitrary value of RD parameters to explain experimental observation qualitatively. In this work, existing models were studied to understand the mechanism behind this phenomenon and challenges pertaining to models were understood and explained. These models are not computationally effective due to the presence of discontinuous precipitation rate in RD equations. To overcome the computational challenges, smoothened Heaviside functions have been introduced, which downsizes the computational time as well. Experiments were performed using a conventional LP system (AgNO₃-K₂Cr₂O₇) to understand the effects of different gels and temperatures on formed LPs. The model is extended for real parameter values to compare the simulated results with experimental data for both 1-D (Cartesian test tubes) and 2-D(cylindrical and Petri dish).

Keywords: reaction-diffusion, spatio-temporal patterns, nucleation and growth, supersaturation

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Authors: Anaissia Franca, Julian Fernandez, Curran Crawford, Ned Djilali

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A methodology to estimate the state-of-charge (SOC) of battery electric buses, including degradation effects, for a given driving cycle is presented to support long-term techno-economic analysis integrating electric buses and charging infrastructure. The degradation mechanisms, characterized by both capacity and power fade with time, have been modeled using an electrochemical model for Li-ion batteries. Iterative changes in the negative electrode film resistance and decrease in available lithium as a function of utilization is simulated for every cycle. The cycles are formulated to follow typical transit bus driving patterns. The power and capacity decay resulting from the degradation model are introduced as inputs to a longitudinal chassis dynamic analysis that calculates the power consumption of the bus for a given driving cycle to find the state-of-charge of the battery as a function of time. The method is applied to an in-depot charging scenario, for which the bus is charged exclusively at the depot, overnight and to its full capacity. This scenario is run both with and without including degradation effects over time to illustrate the significant impact of degradation mechanisms on bus performance when doing feasibility studies for a fleet of electric buses. The impact of battery degradation on battery lifetime is also assessed. The modeling tool can be further used to optimize component sizing and charging locations for electric bus deployment projects.

Keywords: battery electric bus, E-bus, in-depot charging, lithium-ion battery, battery degradation, capacity fade, power fade, electric vehicle, SEI, electrochemical models

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Authors: Elsadig Naseraddeen Ahmed Mohamed

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In contrast to the uncertainty and complementary principle, it will be shown in the present paper that the probability of the simultaneous occupation event of any definite values of coordinates by any definite values of momentum and energy at any definite instance of time can be described by a binary definite function equivalent to the difference between their numbers of occupation and evacuation epochs up to that time and also equivalent to the number of exchanges between those occupation and evacuation epochs up to that times modulus two, these binary definite quantities can be defined at all point in the time’s real-line so it form a binary signal represent a complete mechanical description of physical reality, the time of these exchanges represent the boundary of occupation and evacuation epochs from which we can calculate these binary signals using the fact that the time of universe events actually extends in the positive and negative of time’s real-line in one direction of extension when these number of exchanges increase, so there exists noninvertible transformation matrix can be defined as the matrix multiplication of invertible rotation matrix and noninvertible scaling matrix change the direction and magnitude of exchange event vector respectively, these noninvertible transformation will be called actual transformation in contrast to information transformations by which we can navigate the universe’s events transformed by actual transformations backward and forward in time’s real-line, so these information transformations will be derived as an elements of a group can be associated to their corresponded actual transformations. The actual and information model of the universe will be derived by assuming the existence of time instance zero before and at which there is no coordinate occupied by any definite values of momentum and energy, and then after that time, the universe begin its expanding in spacetime, this assumption makes the need for the existence of Laplace’s demon who at one moment can measure the positions and momentums of all constituent particle of the universe and then use the law of classical mechanics to predict all future and past of universe’s events, superfluous, we only need for the establishment of our analog to digital converters to sense the binary signals that determine the boundaries of occupation and evacuation epochs of the definite values of coordinates relative to its origin by the definite values of momentum and energy as present events of the universe from them we can predict approximately in high precision it's past and future events.

Keywords: binary-signal mechanics, actual-information model of the universe, actual-transformation, information-transformation, uncertainty principle, Laplace's demon

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Authors: Imran Aziz Tunio

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Islamkot is an underdeveloped sub-district (Taluka) in the Tharparkar district Sindh province of Pakistan located between latitude 24°25'19.79"N to 24°47'59.92"N and longitude 70° 1'13.95"E to 70°32'15.11"E. The Islamkot has an arid desert climate and the region is generally devoid of perennial rivers, canals, and streams. It is highly dependent on rainfall which is not considered a reliable surface water source and groundwater is the only key source of water for many centuries. To assess groundwater’s potential, an electrical resistivity survey (ERS) was conducted in Islamkot Taluka. Groundwater investigations for 128 Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES) were collected to determine the groundwater potential and obtain qualitatively and quantitatively layered resistivity parameters. The PASI Model 16 GL-N Resistivity Meter was used by employing a Schlumberger electrode configuration, with half current electrode spacing (AB/2) ranging from 1.5 to 100 m and the potential electrode spacing (MN/2) from 0.5 to 10 m. The data was acquired with a maximum current electrode spacing of 200 m. The data processing for the delineation of dune sand aquifers involved the technique of data inversion, and the interpretation of the inversion results was aided by the use of forward modeling. The measured geo-electrical parameters were examined by Interpex IX1D software, and apparent resistivity curves and synthetic model layered parameters were mapped in the ArcGIS environment using the inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation technique. Qualitative interpretation of vertical electrical sounding (VES) data shows the number of geo-electrical layers in the area varies from three to four with different resistivity values detected. Out of 128 VES model curves, 42 nos. are 3 layered, and 86 nos. are 4 layered. The resistivity of the first subsurface layers (Loose surface sand) varied from 16.13 Ωm to 3353.3 Ωm and thickness varied from 0.046 m to 17.52m. The resistivity of the second subsurface layer (Semi-consolidated sand) varied from 1.10 Ωm to 7442.8 Ωm and thickness varied from 0.30 m to 56.27 m. The resistivity of the third subsurface layer (Consolidated sand) varied from 0.00001 Ωm to 3190.8 Ωm and thickness varied from 3.26 m to 86.66 m. The resistivity of the fourth subsurface layer (Silt and Clay) varied from 0.0013 Ωm to 16264 Ωm and thickness varied from 13.50 m to 87.68 m. The Dar Zarrouk parameters, i.e. longitudinal unit conductance S is from 0.00024 to 19.91 mho; transverse unit resistance T from 7.34 to 40080.63 Ωm2; longitudinal resistance RS is from 1.22 to 3137.10 Ωm and transverse resistivity RT from 5.84 to 3138.54 Ωm. ERS data and Dar Zarrouk parameters were mapped which revealed that the study area has groundwater potential in the subsurface.

Keywords: electrical resistivity survey, GIS & RS, groundwater potential, environmental assessment, VES

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Authors: Syed Toqueer Akhter, Muhammad Awais

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Pakistan is a country which is gifted by naturally abundant resources these resources are a pioneer towards a prospect and developed country. Pakistan is the fourth largest exporter of the textile in the world and with the passage of time the competitiveness of these exports is subject to a decline. With a lot of International players in the textile world like China, Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka, Pakistan needs to put up a lot of effort to compete with these countries. This research paper would determine the impact of Foreign Direct Investment upon technological diffusion and that how significantly it may be affecting on export performance of the country. It would also demonstrate that with the increase in Foreign Direct Investment, technological diffusion, strong property rights, and using different policy tools, export competitiveness of the country could be improved. The research has been carried out using time series data from 1995 to 2013 and the results have been estimated by using competing Econometrics modes such as Robust regression and Generalized least squares so that to consolidate the impact of the Foreign Investments and Technological diffusion upon export competitiveness comprehensively. Distributed Lag model has also been used to encompass the lagged effect of policy tools variables used by the government. Model estimates entail that 'FDI' and 'Technological Diffusion' do have a significant impact on the competitiveness of the exports of Pakistan. It may also be inferred that competitiveness of Textile Sector requires integrated policy framework, primarily including the reduction in interest rates, providing subsides, and manufacturing of value added products.

Keywords: high technology export, robust regression, patents, technological diffusion, export competitiveness

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Authors: Mui Joo Tang, Eang Teng Chan

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Advertising is commonly used to foster sales and reputation of an institution. It is at first the growth of print advertising that has increased the population and number of periodicals of newspaper and its circulation. The rise of Internet and online media has somehow blurred the role of media and advertising though the intention is still to reach out to audience and to increase sales. The relationship between advertising and audience on a product purchase through persuasion has been developing from print media to online media. From the changing media environment and audience, it is the concern of this research to study the impact of online advertising to such a relationship cycle. The content of online advertisements is much of text, multimedia, photo, audio and video. The messages of such content format may indeed bring impacts to its audience and its credibility. This study is therefore reflecting the effectiveness of online advertisement and its influences on generation Y in their purchasing behavior. This study uses Media Dependency Theory to analyze the relationship between the impact of online advertisement and media usage pattern of generation Y. Hierarchy of Effectiveness Model is used as a marketing communication model to study the effectiveness of advertising and further to determine the impact of online advertisement on generation Y in their purchasing decision making. This research uses online survey to reach out the sample of generation Y. The results have shown that online advertisements do not affect much on purchase decision making even though generation Y relies much on the media content including online advertisement for its information and believing in its credibility. There are few other external factors that may interrupt the effectiveness of online advertising. The very obvious influence of purchasing behavior is actually derived from the peers.

Keywords: generation Y, purchase decision, print media, online advertising, persuasion

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Authors: Mohammadreza Baradaran, F. Hamzezarghani

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Every year in different points of the world it occurs with different strengths and thousands of people lose their lives because of this natural phenomenon. One of the reasons for destruction of buildings because of earthquake in addition to the passing of time and the effect of environmental conditions and the wearing-out of a building is changing the uses of the building and change the structure and skeleton of the building. A large number of structures that are located in earthquake bearing areas have been designed according to the old quake design regulations which are out dated. In addition, many of the major earthquakes which have occurred in recent years, emphasize retrofitting to decrease the dangers of quakes. Retrofitting structural quakes available is one of the most effective methods for reducing dangers and compensating lack of resistance caused by the weaknesses existing. In this article the foundation of a five-floor steel building with the moment frame system has been evaluated for quakes and the effect of adding a floor to this five-floor steel building has been evaluated and analyzed. The considered building is with a metallic skeleton and a piled roof and clayed block which after addition of a floor has increased to a six-floor foundation of 1416 square meters, and the height of the sixth floor from ground state has increased 18.95 meters. After analysis of the foundation model, the behavior of the soil under the foundation and also the behavior of the body or element of the foundation has been evaluated and the model of the foundation and its type of change in form and the amount of stress of the soil under the foundation for some of the composition has been determined many times in the SAFE software modeling and finally the need for retrofitting of the building's foundation has been determined.

Keywords: seismic, rehabilitation, steel building, foundation

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Authors: Mario Isaza-Ruget, Claudia C. Colmenares-Mejia, Nancy Yomayusa, Camilo A. González, Andres Cely, Jossie Murcia

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Quantification of risks associated with complications development from chronic kidney disease (CKD) through accurate survival models can help with patient management. A retrospective cohort that included patients diagnosed with CKD from a primary care program and followed up between 2013 and 2018 was carried out. Time-dependent and static covariates associated with demographic, clinical, and laboratory factors were included. Deep Learning (DL) survival analyzes were developed for three CKD outcomes: CKD stage progression, >25% decrease in Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR), and Renal Replacement Therapy (RRT). Models were evaluated and compared with Random Survival Forest (RSF) based on concordance index (C-index) metric. 2.143 patients were included. Two models were developed for each outcome, Deep Neural Network (DNN) model reported C-index=0.9867 for CKD stage progression; C-index=0.9905 for reduction in eGFR; C-index=0.9867 for RRT. Regarding the RSF model, C-index=0.6650 was reached for CKD stage progression; decreased eGFR C-index=0.6759; RRT C-index=0.8926. DNN models applied in survival analysis context with considerations of longitudinal covariates at the start of follow-up can predict renal stage progression, a significant decrease in eGFR and RRT. The success of these survival models lies in the appropriate definition of survival times and the analysis of covariates, especially those that vary over time.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, chronic kidney disease, deep neural networks, survival analysis

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Authors: Mohd Tahseen Islam Talukder, Sheikh Adnan Enam, Latifa Akter Lithi, Soebur Rahman

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Composite structures have made significant advances in construction applications during the last few decades. Composite structures are composed of structural steel shapes and reinforced concrete combined with shear connectors, which benefit each material's unique properties. Significant research has been conducted on different types of connectors’ behavior and shear capacity. Moreover, the AISC 360-16 “Specification for Steel Structural Buildings” consists of a formula for channel shear connectors' shear capacity. This research compares the behavior of C type and L type shear connectors using Finite Element Analysis. Experimental results from published literature are used to validate the finite element models. The 3-D Finite Element Model (FEM) was built using ABAQUS 2017 to investigate non-linear capabilities and the ultimate load-carrying potential of the connectors using push-out tests. The changes in connector dimensions were analyzed using this non-linear model in parametric investigations. The parametric study shows that by increasing the length of the shear connector by 10 mm, its shear strength increases by 21%. Shear capacity increased by 13% as the height was increased by 10 mm. The thickness of the specimen was raised by 1 mm, resulting in a 2% increase in shear capacity. However, the shear capacity of channel connectors was reduced by 21% due to an increase of thickness by 2 mm.

Keywords: finite element method, channel shear connector, angle shear connector, ABAQUS, composite structure, shear connector, parametric study, ultimate shear capacity, push-out test

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Authors: Guenther Schuh, Michael Riesener, Jan Kantelberg

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Due to the fugacity of markets and the reduction of product lifecycles, manufacturing companies from high-wage countries are nowadays faced with the challenge to place more innovative products within even shorter development time on the market. At the same time, volatile customer requirements have to be satisfied in order to successfully differentiate from market competitors. One potential approach to address the explained challenges is provided by agile values and principles. These agile values and principles already proofed their success within software development projects in the form of management frameworks like Scrum or concrete procedure models such as Extreme Programming or Crystal Clear. Those models lead to significant improvements regarding quality, costs and development time and are therefore used within most software development projects. Motivated by the success within the software industry, manufacturing companies have tried to transfer agile mechanisms of action to the development of hardware products ever since. Though first empirical studies show similar effects in the agile development of hardware products, no comprehensive procedure model for the design of development iterations has been developed for hardware development yet due to different constraints of the domains. For this reason, this paper focusses on the design of agile product development processes by transferring mechanisms of action used in agile software development towards product development. This is conducted by decomposing the individual systems 'product development' and 'agile software development' into relevant elements and symbiotically composing the elements of both systems in respect of the design of agile product development processes afterwards. In a first step, existing product development processes are described following existing approaches of the system theory. By analyzing existing case studies from industrial companies as well as academic approaches, characteristic objectives, activities and artefacts are identified within a target-, action- and object-system. In partial model two, mechanisms of action are derived from existing procedure models of agile software development. These mechanisms of action are classified in a superior strategy level, in a system level comprising characteristic, domain-independent activities and their cause-effect relationships as well as in an activity-based element level. Within partial model three, the influence of the identified agile mechanism of action towards the characteristic system elements of product development processes is analyzed. For this reason, target-, action- and object-system of the product development are compared with the strategy-, system- and element-level of agile mechanism of action by using the graph theory. Furthermore, the necessity of existence of activities within iteration can be determined by defining activity-specific degrees of freedom. Based on this analysis, agile product development processes are designed in form of different types of iterations within a last step. By defining iteration-differentiating characteristics and their interdependencies, a logic for the configuration of activities, their form of execution as well as relevant artefacts for the specific iteration is developed. Furthermore, characteristic types of iteration for the agile product development are identified.

Keywords: activity-based process model, agile mechanisms of action, agile product development, degrees of freedom

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Authors: Amrit Ladhani

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The cyclic universe theory is a model of cosmic evolution according to which the universe undergoes endless cycles of expansion and cooling, each beginning with a “big bang” and ending in a “big crunch”. In this paper, we propose a unique property of Space-time. This particular and marvelous nature of space shows us that space can stretch, expand, and shrink. This property of space is caused by the size of the universe change over time: growing or shrinking. The observed accelerated expansion, which relates to the stretching of Shrunk space for the new theory, is derived. This theory is based on three underlying notions: First, the Big Bang is not the beginning of Space-time, but rather, at the very beginning fraction of a second, there was an infinite force of infinite Shrunk space in the cosmic singularity that force gave rise to the big bang and caused the rapidly growing of space, and all other forms of energy are transformed into new matter and radiation and a new period of expansion and cooling begins. Second, there was a previous phase leading up to it, with multiple cycles of contraction and expansion that repeat indefinitely. Third, the two principal long-range forces are the gravitational force and the repulsive force generated by shrink space. They are the two most fundamental quantities in the universe that govern cosmic evolution. They may provide the clockwork mechanism that operates our eternal cyclic universe. The universe will not continue to expand forever; no need, however, for dark energy and dark matter. This new model of Space-time and its unique properties enables us to describe a sequence of events from the Big Bang to the Big Crunch.

Keywords: dark matter, dark energy, cosmology, big bang and big crunch

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Authors: Akshay S. Dalvi, Hazim El-Mounayri

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The internal and the external interactions between the complex structural and behavioral characteristics of the complex energy system result in unpredictable emergent behaviors. These emergent behaviors are not well understood, especially when modeled using the traditional top-down systems engineering approach. The intrinsic nature of current complex energy systems has called for an elegant solution that provides an integrated framework in Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE). This paper mainly presents a MBSE driven approach to define and handle the complexity that arises due to emergent behaviors. The approach provides guidelines for developing system architecture that leverages in predicting the complexity index of the system at different levels of abstraction. A framework that integrates indefinite and definite modeling aspects is developed to determine the complexity that arises during the development phase of the system. This framework provides a workflow for modeling complex systems using Systems Modeling Language (SysML) that captures the system’s requirements, behavior, structure, and analytical aspects at both problem definition and solution levels. A system architecture for a district cooling plant is presented, which demonstrates the ability to predict the complexity index. The result suggests that complex energy systems like district cooling plant can be defined in an elegant manner using the unconventional modified MBSE driven approach that helps in estimating development time and cost.

Keywords: district cooling plant, energy systems, framework, MBSE

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Authors: Getachew Mekaa, Bezatu Mengisteb, Tena Alamirewc

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Ashebeka River is the main source of drinking water supply for Assela City and its surrounding inhabitants. Apart from seasonal water reliability disruption, the cost of treating water downstream of the river has been increasing over time due to increased pollutants and suspended sediments. Therefore, this research aimed to identify geo-location and prioritize suspended sediment sources in the Ashebeka River catchment using sediment fingerprinting. We collected 58 composite soil samples and a river water sample for suspended sediment samples from the outlet, which were then filtered using Whatman filter paper. The samples were quantified for geochemical tracers with multi-element capability, and inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). Tracers with significant p-value and that passed the Kruskal-Wallis (KW) test were analyzed for stepwise discriminant function analysis (DFA). The DFA results revealed tracers with good discrimination were subsequently used for the mixed model analysis. The relative significant sediment source contributions from sub-catchments (km2): 3, 4, 1, and 2 were estimated as 49.31% (8), 26.71% (5), 23.65% (5.6), and 0.33% (28.4) respectively. The findings of this study will help the water utilities to prioritize areas of intervention, and the approach used could be followed for catchment prioritization in water safety plan development. Moreover, the findings of this research shed light on the integration of sediment fingerprinting into water safety plans to ensure the reliability of drinking water supplies.

Keywords: disruption of drinking water reliability, ashebeka river catchment, sediment fingerprinting, sediment source contribution, mixed model

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Authors: Itulelo Matiyabu Imaja, Manoj Maharaj, Patrick Ndayizigamiye

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Lack of transparency in public funds management is observed in many African countries. The DR Congo is among the most corrupted countries in Africa, and this is due mainly to lack of transparency and accountability in public funds management. Corruption has a negative effect on the welfare of the country’s citizens and the national economic growth. Public funds collection and allocation are the major areas whereby malpractices such as bribe, extortion, embezzlement, nepotism and other practices related to corruption are prevalent. Hence, there is a need to implement strong mechanisms to enforce transparency in public funds management. Many researchers have suggested some control mechanisms in curbing corruption in public funds management focusing mainly on law enforcement and administrative reforms with little or no insight on the role that ICT can play in preventing and curbing the corrupt behaviour. In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), there are slight indications that the government of the DR Congo is integrating ICT to fight corruption in public funds collection and allocation. However, such government initiatives are at an infancy stage, with no tangible evidence on how ICT could be used effectively to address the issue of corruption in the context of the country. Hence, this research assesses the role that ICT can play for transparency in public funds management and suggest a framework for its adoption in the Democratic Republic of Congo. This research uses the revised Capability model (Capability, Empowerment, Sustainability model) as the guiding theoretical framework. The study uses the exploratory design methodology coupled with a qualitative approach to data collection and purposive sampling as sampling strategy.

Keywords: corruption, DR congo, ICT, management, public funds, transparency

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Authors: Benoît Mary, Thibaut Gras, Gaëtan Fagot, Yvon Goth, Ilyes Mnassri-Cetim

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A Gerotor pump is composed of an external and internal gear with conjugate cycloidal profiles. From suction to delivery ports, the fluid is transported inside cavities formed by teeth and driven by the shaft. From a geometric and conceptional side it is worth to note that the internal gear has one tooth less than the external one. Simcenter Amesim v.16 includes a new submodel for modelling the hydraulic Gerotor pumps behavior (THCDGP0). This submodel considers leakages between teeth tips using Poiseuille and Couette flows contributions. From the 3D CAD model of the studied pump, the “CAD import” tool takes out the main geometrical characteristics and the submodel THCDGP0 computes the evolution of each cavity volume and their relative position according to the suction or delivery areas. This module, based on international publications, presents robust results up to 6 000 rpm for pressure greater than atmospheric level. For higher rotational speeds or lower pressures, oil aeration and cavitation effects are significant and highly drop the pump’s performance. The liquid used in hydraulic systems always contains some gas, which is dissolved in the liquid at high pressure and tends to be released in a free form (i.e. undissolved as bubbles) when pressure drops. In addition to gas release and dissolution, the liquid itself may vaporize due to cavitation. To model the relative density of the equivalent fluid, modified Henry’s law is applied in Simcenter Amesim v.16 to predict the fraction of undissolved gas or vapor. Three parietal pressure sensors have been set up upstream from the pump to estimate the sound speed in the oil. Analytical models have been compared with the experimental sound speed to estimate the occluded gas content. Simcenter Amesim v.16 model was supplied by these previous analyses marks which have successfully improved the simulations results up to 14 000 rpm. This work provides a sound foundation for designing the next Gerotor pump generation reaching high rotation range more than 25 000 rpm. This improved module results will be compared to tests on this new pump demonstrator.

Keywords: gerotor pump, high speed, numerical simulations, aeronautic, aeration, cavitation

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Authors: A. Ascenso, C. Silveira, B. Augusto, S. Rafael, S. Coelho, J. Ferreira, A. Monteiro, P. Roebeling, A. I. Miranda

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Innovative nature-based solutions (NBSs) can provide answers to the challenges that urban areas are currently facing due to urban densification and extreme weather conditions. The effects of NBSs are recognized and include improved quality of life, mental and physical health and improvement of air quality, among others. Part of the work developed in the scope of the UNaLab project, which aims to guide cities in developing and implementing their own co-creative NBSs, intends to assess the impacts of NBSs on air quality, using Eindhoven city as a case study. The state-of-the-art online air quality modelling system WRF-CHEM was applied to simulate meteorological and concentration fields over the study area with a spatial resolution of 1 km2 for the year 2015. The baseline simulation (without NBSs) was validated by comparing the model results with monitored data retrieved from the Eindhoven air quality database, showing an adequate model performance. In addition, land use changes were applied in a set of simulations to assess the effects of different types of NBSs. Finally, these simulations were compared with the baseline scenario and the impacts of the NBSs were assessed. Reductions on pollutant concentrations, namely for NOx and PM, were found after the application of the NBSs in the Eindhoven study area. The present work is particularly important to support public planners and decision makers in understanding the effects of their actions and planning more sustainable cities for the future.

Keywords: air quality, modelling approach, nature based solutions, urban area

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Authors: Md. Soebur Rahman, Mahbuba Begum, Raquib Ahsan

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Composite column is a structural member that uses a combination of structural steel shapes, pipes or tubes with or without reinforcing steel bars and reinforced concrete to provide adequate load carrying capacity to sustain either axial compressive loads alone or a combination of axial loads and bending moments. Composite construction takes the advantages of the speed of construction, light weight and strength of steel, and the higher mass, stiffness, damping properties and economy of reinforced concrete. The most usual types of composite columns are the concrete filled steel tubes and the partially or fully encased steel profiles. Fully encased composite column (FEC) provides compressive strength, stability, stiffness, improved fire proofing and better corrosion protection. This paper reports experimental and numerical investigations of the behaviour of concrete encased steel composite columns subjected to short-term axial load. In this study, eleven short FEC columns with square shaped cross section were constructed and tested to examine the load-deflection behavior. The main variables in the test were considered as concrete compressive strength, cross sectional size and percentage of structural steel. A nonlinear 3-D finite element (FE) model has been developed to analyse the inelastic behaviour of steel, concrete, and longitudinal reinforcement as well as the effect of concrete confinement of the FEC columns. FE models have been validated against the current experimental study conduct in the laboratory and published experimental results under concentric load. It has been observed that FE model is able to predict the experimental behaviour of FEC columns under concentric gravity loads with good accuracy. Good agreement has been achieved between the complete experimental and the numerical load-deflection behaviour in this study. The capacities of each constituent of FEC columns such as structural steel, concrete and rebar's were also determined from the numerical study. Concrete is observed to provide around 57% of the total axial capacity of the column whereas the steel I-sections contributes to the rest of the capacity as well as ductility of the overall system. The nonlinear FE model developed in this study is also used to explore the effect of concrete strength and percentage of structural steel on the behaviour of FEC columns under concentric loads. The axial capacity of FEC columns has been found to increase significantly by increasing the strength of concrete.

Keywords: composite, columns, experimental, finite element, fully encased, strength

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Authors: Qiong He, S. Thomas Ng

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Upgrading the thermal performance of building envelope of existing residential buildings is an effective way to reduce heat gain or heat loss. Overhang device is a common solution for building envelope improvement as it can cut down solar heat gain and thereby can reduce the energy used for space cooling in summer time. Despite that, overhang can increase the demand for indoor heating in winter due to its function of lowering the solar heat gain. Obviously, overhang has different impacts on energy use in different climatic zones which have different energy demand. To evaluate the impact of overhang device on building energy performance under different climates of China, an energy analysis model is built up in a computer-based simulation program known as DesignBuilder based on the data of a typical high-rise residential building. The energy simulation results show that single overhang is able to cut down around 5% of the energy consumption of the case building in the stand-alone situation or about 2% when the building is surrounded by other buildings in regions which predominantly rely on space cooling though it has no contribution to energy reduction in cold region. In regions with cold summer and cold winter, adding overhang over windows can cut down around 4% and 1.8% energy use with and without adjoining buildings, respectively. The results indicate that overhang might not an effective shading device to reduce the energy consumption in the mixed climate or cold regions.

Keywords: overhang, energy analysis, computer-based simulation, design builder, high-rise residential building, climate, BIM model

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Authors: Lukas Reznak, Maria Reznakova

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Recession of an economy has a profound negative effect on all involved stakeholders. It follows that timely prediction of recessions has been of utmost interest both in the theoretical research and in practical macroeconomic modelling. Current mainstream of recession prediction is based on standard OLS models of continuous GDP using macroeconomic data. This approach is not suitable for two reasons: the standard continuous models are proving to be obsolete and the macroeconomic data are unreliable, often revised many years retroactively. The aim of the paper is to explore a different branch of recession forecasting research theory and verify the findings on real data of the Czech Republic and Germany. In the paper, the authors present a family of discrete choice probit models with parameters estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. In the basic form, the probits model a univariate series of recessions and expansions in the economic cycle for a given country. The majority of the paper deals with more complex model structures, namely dynamic and bivariate extensions. The dynamic structure models the autoregressive nature of recessions, taking into consideration previous economic activity to predict the development in subsequent periods. Bivariate extensions utilize information from a foreign economy by incorporating correlation of error terms and thus modelling the dependencies of the two countries. Bivariate models predict a bivariate time series of economic states in both economies and thus enhance the predictive performance. A vital enabler of timely and successful recession forecasting are reliable and readily available data. Leading indicators, namely the yield curve and the stock market indices, represent an ideal data base, as the pieces of information is available in advance and do not undergo any retroactive revisions. As importantly, the combination of yield curve and stock market indices reflect a range of macroeconomic and financial market investors’ trends which influence the economic cycle. These theoretical approaches are applied on real data of Czech Republic and Germany. Two models for each country were identified – each for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive purposes. All four followed a bivariate structure, while three contained a dynamic component.

Keywords: bivariate probit, leading indicators, recession forecasting, Czech Republic, Germany

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Authors: Fajana Sola Isaac

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In the last two decades, we have witnessed an increased interest in exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in developing economies and emerging markets. This is perhaps due to the acknowledged significance of the pattern of exchange rate pass-through as a key instrument in monetary policy design, principally in retort to a shock in exchange rate in literature. This paper analyzed Exchange Rate Pass-Through by A Model of Oil Prices and Asymmetric Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Selected African Countries. The study adopted A Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach using yearly data on Algeria, Burundi, Nigeria and South Africa from 1986 to 2022. The paper found asymmetry in exchange rate pass-through in net oil-importing and net oil-exporting countries in the short run during the period under review. An ERPT exhibited a complete pass-through in the short run in the case of net oil-importing countries but an incomplete pass-through in the case of the net oil-exporting countries that were examined. An extended result revealed a significant impact of oil price shock on exchange rate pass-through to domestic price in the long run only for net oil importing countries. The Wald restriction test also confirms the evidence of asymmetric with the role of oil price acting as an accelerator to exchange rate pass-through to domestic price in the countries examined. The study found the outcome to be very useful for gaining expansive knowledge on the external shock impact on ERPT and could be of critical value for national monetary policy decisions on inflation targeting, especially for countries examined and other developing net oil importers and exporters.

Keywords: pass through, exchange rate, ARDL, monetary policy

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Authors: Valentin Nickolai, Florian Pfeffel, Christian Louis Kühner

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In many industrialized nations, the demand for skilled workers rises, causing the current market for employees to be more candidate-driven than employer-driven. Therefore, losing highly skilled and experienced employees due to early or partial retirement negatively impacts firms. Therefore, finding new ways to incentivize older employees (Silver Workers) to stay longer with the company and in their job can be crucial for the success of a firm. This study analyzes how working remotely can be a valid incentive for experienced Silver Workers to stay in their job and instead work from home with more flexible working hours. An online survey with n = 684 respondents, who are employed in the service sector, has been conducted based on 13 constructs that influence job satisfaction. These have been further categorized into three groups “classic influencing factors,” “influencing factors changed by remote working,” and new remote working influencing factors,” and were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM). Here, Cronbach’s alpha of the individual constructs was shown to be suitable. Furthermore, the construct validity of the constructs was confirmed by face validity, content validity, convergent validity (AVE > 0.5: CR > 0.7), and discriminant validity. Additionally, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) confirmed the model fit for the investigated sample (CMIN/DF: 2.567; CFI: 0.927; RMSEA: 0.048). It was shown in the SEM-analysis that the influencing factor on job satisfaction, “identification with the work,” is the most significant with β = 0.540, followed by “Appreciation” (β = 0.151), “Compensation” (β = 0.124), “Work-Life-Balance” (β = 0.116), and “Communication and Exchange of Information” (β = 0.105). While the significance of each factor can vary depending on the work model, the SEM-analysis also shows that the identification with the work is the most significant factor in all three work models mentioned above and, in the case of the traditional office work model, it is the only significant influencing factor. The study shows that employees between the ages of 56 and 65 years have the highest job satisfaction when working entirely from home or remotely. Furthermore, their job satisfaction score of 5.4 on a scale from 1 (very dissatisfied) to 7 (very satisfied) is the highest amongst all age groups in any of the three work models. Due to the significantly higher job satisfaction, it can be argued that giving Silver Workers the offer to work from home or remotely can incentivize them not to opt for early retirement or partial retirement but to stay in their job full-time Furthermore, these findings can indicate that employees in the Silver Worker age are much more inclined to leave their job for early retirement if they have to entirely work in the office.

Keywords: home office, remote work instead of early or partial retirement, silver worker, structural equation modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 75