Search results for: structural failure risk

Authors: Seyedmohammad Mousavian, Hanlu Fan, Quingliang Tang

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Climate change is emerging as a severe threat to our society, so businesses are expected to take actions to mitigate carbon emissions. However, the actions to be taken depend on managers’ perceptions of climate change risks. Yet, there is scant research on this issue, and understanding of the determinants of corporate perceptions of climate change is extremely limited. The purpose of this study is to close this gap by examining the relationship between perceptions of climate risk and firm-level and country-level factors. In this study, climate change risk captures physical, regulatory, and other risks, and we use data from European companies that participated in CDP from 2010 to 2017. This study reveals those perceptions of climate change risk are significantly positively associated with the environmental, social, and governance score, firm size, and membership in a carbon-intensive sector. In addition, we find that managers in firms operating in a geographic area that is sensitive to the consequences of global warming are more likely to perceive and formally recognize carbon-related risks in their CDP reports.

Keywords: carbon actions, CDP, climate change risk, risk perception

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Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

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In this paper, a model is proposed to determine the life distribution parameters of the useful life region for the PV system utilizing a combination of non-parametric and linear regression analysis for the failure data of these systems. Results showed that this method is dependable for analyzing failure time data for such reliable systems when the data is scarce.

Keywords: masking, bathtub model, reliability, non-parametric analysis, useful life

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Authors: S. U. Kunya, S. A. Mohammad

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Construction projects in Nigeria are characterized with risks emanating from delays and accompanying cost-overruns. The aim of the study was to identify and assess factors constraining the utilization of risk management strategies in the execution of public construction project in North-East Nigeria. Data was collected with the aid of a well-structured questionnaire administered to three identified projects in the North-east. Data collected were analysed using the severity index. Findings revealed political involvement, selection of inexperienced contractors and lack of coordinated public sector strategy as the most severe factors constraining the utilization of risk management strategies. The study recommended that: formulation of laws to prevent negative political meddling in construction projects; selection of experienced, risk-informed contractors; and comprehensive risk assessment and planning on all public construction projects.

Keywords: factors, Nigeria, north-east, public projects, risk management, strategies, utilization

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Authors: Inuwa Abdu Ibrahim

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The research assessed representative democracy as an administrative system in Nigeria, by highlighting the failure of the state. It also looked at some components of direct democracy in Switzerland. Therefore, the paper focused on direct democracy, using secondary sources of data. In conclusion, the research offers direct democracy as a solution to the failure of the Nigerian administrative system especially as it affects participation, developmental programmes and institutionalized corruption.

Keywords: corruption, direct democracy, national development, Nigeria, participation

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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The majority of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on the rationale that the design, construction, operation, and financing of a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a single contractual framework. PPP project risks normally include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation for decades. Undoubtedly the most serious consequences of risks during the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are amongst the most broadly used scenarios in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change over the life cycle of a PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector normally has to cover all price distress from these risks. At least there is plenty evidence to suggest that price distress is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of construction risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies, and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: Public Private Partnership (PPP), Risk, Risk Pricing, System Dynamics (SD), construction price

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Authors: Montserrat Guillen, Stephania Mosquera-Lopez, Jorge Uribe

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An empirical study of market risk transmission between electricity prices in the Nord Pool interconnected market is done. Crucially, it is differentiated between risk propagation in the two tails of the price variation distribution. Thus, the downside risk from upside risk spillovers is distinguished. The results found document an asymmetric nature of risk and risk propagation in the two tails of the electricity price log variations. Risk spillovers following price increments in the market are transmitted to a larger extent than those after price reductions. Also, asymmetries related to both, the size of the transaction area and related to whether a given area behaves as a net-exporter or net-importer of electricity, are documented. For instance, on the one hand, the bigger the area of the transaction, the smaller the size of the volatility shocks that it receives. On the other hand, exporters of electricity, alongside countries with a significant dependence on renewable sources, tend to be net-transmitters of volatility to the rest of the system. Additionally, insights on the predictive power of positive and negative semivariances for future market volatility are provided. It is shown that depending on the forecasting horizon, downside and upside shocks to the market are featured by a distinctive persistence, and that upside volatility impacts more on net-importers of electricity, while the opposite holds for net-exporters.

Keywords: electricity prices, realized volatility, semivariances, volatility spillovers

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Authors: Sohair Hassan, Olfat Hammam, Sahar Hussein, Wessam Magdi

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Objective: Acute liver failure (ALF) is a clinical condition with an unclear history of pathophysiology, making it a challenging task for scientists to reverse the disease in its initial phase and to help the liver re-function customary: this study aimed to estimate the hepatoprotective effects of Punica granatum Lpeel and Pistacia atlantica leaves as a multi-rich antioxidants ingredients either in their normal and/or in their nanoforms against thioacetamide induced acute liver failure in a rodent model. Method: Male Wistar rats (n=60) were divided into six equal groups, the first group employed as a control; The second group administered a dose of 350 mg /Kg/ b.w of thioacetamide (TAA)-IP, from the third to the sixth group received TAA + [2mls / 100 g b.w/d] of aqueous extracts of Punica granatum L and Pistacia atlantica either in their normal and/or Nano forms consecutively for (14 days) Results: Recorded significant elevation in liver enzymes, lipid profiles, LPO (p= 0.05) and NO with a marked significant decrease in GSH and SOD accompanied by an elevation in inflammatory cytokine (IL6, TNF-α, and AFP) in addition to a noticeable increase in HSP70 level & degradation in DNA respectively in TAA challenged group. However significant and subsequent amelioration of most of the impaired markers was observed with ip nano treatment of both extracts. Conclusion: The current results highlighted the high performance of both plant nano extracts and their hepatoprotective impact and their possible therapeutic role in the amelioration of TAA induced acute liver failure in experimental animals.

Keywords: acute liver failure HPLC, IL6, nano extracts, thioacetamide, TNF-α

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Authors: Zidane Abderrezzaq

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In contrast to recent successful developments in macro monetary policies, the modelling, measurement and management of systemic financial stability has remained problematical. Indeed, the focus of most effort has been on improving individual, rather than systemic, bank risk management; the Basel II objective has been to bring regulatory bank capital into line with the (sophisticated) banks’ assessment of their own economic capital. Even at the individual bank level there are concerns over appropriate diversification allowances, differing objectives of banks and regulators, the need for a buffer over regulatory minima, and the distinction between expected and unexpected losses (EL and UL). At the systemic level the quite complex and prescriptive content of Basel II raises dangers of ‘endogenous risk’ and procyclicality. Simulations suggest that this latter could be a serious problem. In an extension to the main analysis we study how liquidity effects interact with banking structure to produce a greater chance of systemic breakdown. We finally consider how the risk of contagion might depend on the degree of asymmetry (tiering) inherent in the structure of the banking system. A number of our results have important implications for public policy, which this paper also draws out.

Keywords: systemic stability, financial regulation, credit risk, systemic risk

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Authors: Wassamon Kun-Amornpong

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When a financial crisis occurs, there will be a law and regulatory reform in order to manage the turmoil and prevent a future crisis. One of the most important regulatory efforts to help cope with systemic risk and a financial crisis is the third version of the Basel Accord. Basel III has introduced some measures and tools (e.g., systemic risk buffer, countercyclical buffer, capital conservation buffer and liquidity risk) in order to mitigate systemic risk. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of these measures in Basel III in adequately addressing the problem of contagious runs that can quickly spread throughout the financial system is questionable. This paper seeks to contribute to the knowledge regarding the role of the Basel Accords in mitigating systemic risk. The research question is to what extent the Basel Accords can help control systemic risk in the financial markets? The paper tackles this question by analysing the concept of systemic risk. It will then examine the weaknesses of the Basel Accords before and after the Global financial crisis in 2008. Finally, it will suggest some possible solutions in order to improve the Basel Accord. The rationale of the study is the fact that academic works on systemic risk and financial crises are largely studied from economic or financial perspective. There is comparatively little research from the legal and regulatory perspective. The finding of the paper is that there are some problems in all of the three pillars of the Basel Accords. With regards to Pillar I, the risk model is excessively complex while the benefits of its complexity are doubtful. Concerning Pillar II, the effectiveness of the risk-based supervision in preventing systemic risk still depends largely upon its design and implementation. Factors such as organizational culture of the regulator and the political context within which the risk-based supervision operates might be a barrier against the success of Pillar II. Meanwhile, Pillar III could not provide adequate market discipline as market participants do not always act in a rational way. In addition, the too-big-to-fail perception reduced the incentives of the market participants to monitor risks. There has been some development in resolution measure (e.g. TLAC and MREL) which might potentially help strengthen the incentive of the market participants to monitor risks. However, those measures have some weaknesses. The paper argues that if the weaknesses in the three pillars are resolved, it can be expected that the Basel Accord could contribute to the mitigation of systemic risk in a more significant way in the future.

Keywords: Basel accords, financial regulation, risk-based supervision, systemic risk

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Authors: Athina Thanou, Eirini Eleni Tsiropoulou, Symeon Papavassiliou

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The problem of museum visitor experience and congestion management – in various forms - has come increasingly under the spotlight over the last few years, since overcrowding can significantly decrease the quality of visitors’ experience. Evidence suggests that on busy days the amount of time a visitor spends inside a crowded house museum can fall by up to 60% compared to a quiet mid-week day. In this paper we consider the aforementioned problem, by treating museums as evolving social systems that induce constraints. However, in a cultural heritage space, as opposed to the majority of social environments, the momentum of the experience is primarily controlled by the visitor himself. Visitors typically behave selfishly regarding the maximization of their own Quality of Experience (QoE) - commonly expressed through a utility function that takes several parameters into consideration, with crowd density and waiting/visiting time being among the key ones. In such a setting, congestion occurs when either the utility of one visitor decreases due to the behavior of other persons, or when costs of undertaking an activity rise due to the presence of other persons. We initially investigate how visitors’ behavioral risk attitudes, as captured and represented by prospect theory, affect their decisions in resource sharing settings, where visitors’ decisions and experiences are strongly interdependent. Different from the majority of existing studies and literature, we highlight that visitors are not risk neutral utility maximizers, but they demonstrate risk-aware behavior according to their personal risk characteristics. In our work, exhibits are organized into two groups: a) “safe exhibits” that correspond to less congested ones, where the visitors receive guaranteed satisfaction in accordance with the visiting time invested, and b) common pool of resources (CPR) exhibits, which are the most popular exhibits with possibly increased congestion and uncertain outcome in terms of visitor satisfaction. A key difference is that the visitor satisfaction due to CPR strongly depends not only on the invested time decision of a specific visitor, but also on that of the rest of the visitors. In the latter case, the over-investment in time, or equivalently the increased congestion potentially leads to “exhibit failure”, interpreted as the visitors gain no satisfaction from their observation of this exhibit due to high congestion. We present a framework where each visitor in a distributed manner determines his time investment in safe or CPR exhibits to optimize his QoE. Based on this framework, we analyze and evaluate how visitors, acting as prospect-theoretic decision-makers, respond and react to the various pricing policies imposed by the museum curators. Based on detailed evaluation results and experiments, we present interesting observations, regarding the impact of several parameters and characteristics such as visitor heterogeneity and use of alternative pricing policies, on scalability, user satisfaction, museum capacity, resource fragility, and operation point stability. Furthermore, we study and present the effectiveness of alternative pricing mechanisms, when used as implicit tools, to deal with the congestion management problem in the museums, and potentially decrease the exhibit failure probability (fragility), while considering the visitor risk preferences.

Keywords: museum resource and visitor management, congestion management, propsect theory, cyber physical social systems

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Authors: Mohammad Raihan Mukhlis, M. Abdur Rahman Bhuiyan

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Bangladesh is a developing country in which a lot of multi-span simply/continuous supported flyovers are being constructed in its major cities. Being situated in a seismically active region, seismic safety evaluation of flyovers is essential for seismic risk reduction. Effects of site amplification on seismic safety evaluation of flyover piers are the main concern of this study. In this regard, failure mode, lateral strength and displacement ductility of piers of a typical multi-span simply supported flyover have been evaluated by Japan Road Association (JRA) recommended guidelines, with and without considering site amplification. Ultimate flexural strengths of piers have been computed using the pushover analysis results. Shear capacity of piers has been calculated using the guidelines of JRA. Lateral strengths have been determined depending on the failure modes of the piers. Displacement ductility of piers has been computed using yield and ultimate displacements of the piers obtained from the pushover analysis results. Selected earthquake time history is used in seismic safety evaluation of the flyover piers. Finally, the ductility design method is used to conduct the seismic safety evaluation of the piers with and without considering site amplification. From the numerical results, it has been revealed that the effects of site amplification on seismic safety evaluation of bridge structures should be carefully taken into account.

Keywords: displacement ductility, flyover pier, lateral strength, safety evaluation, site amplification

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Authors: Hamad Aljassmi, Sangwon Han

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Various solutions for preventing construction defects have been suggested. However, a construction company may have difficulties adopting all these suggestions due to financial and practical constraints. Based on this recognition, this paper aims to identify the most significant defect causes and formulate their defect generation mechanism in order to help a construction company to set priorities of its defect prevention strategies. For this goal, we conducted a questionnaire survey of 106 industry professionals and identified five most significant causes including: (1) organizational culture, (2) time pressure and constraints, (3) workplace quality system, (4) financial constraints upon operational expenses and (5) inadequate employee training or learning opportunities.

Keywords: defect, quality, failure, risk

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Authors: Amir Kavousifard, Lan Lin

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The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of the detailing in the seismic design of reinforced concrete (RC) bridge columns on the blast load resistance. A generic two-span continuous RC bridge located in Victoria, British Columbia, which represents the highest seismicity in Canada, was examined in the study. The bridge superstructure consists of a single cell box girder while the substructure consists of two circular columns. The bridge was designed according to the 2006 Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code. More specifically, response spectrum analysis was performed to determine the seismic demands using CSI Bridge. The 3D blast load analysis is carried out in the platform of LS-DYNA. Two charge heights, i.e., one at the mid-height of the column and the other at the bottom of the column, are considered. For each height, three cases are analyzed in order to investigate the effects of standoff and charge weight on the structural response. The blast load resistance of the column is assessed in terms of the concrete failure mechanism, steel stress distribution, and column lateral displacement. The results from the study indicate that a column designed in accordance with the code requirements could survive during the blast attack. Spiral columns perform much better than tied columns. The results also show that the charge weight has more impact on the structural response than the standoff. These results are beneficial for the development of the Canadian standards for the design of bridges under blast loads.

Keywords: blast, bridge, charge, height, seismic, standoff

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Authors: Zakiullah Kalwar, Shabeer Abbassi

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This research encompasses the study of structural styles and evaluation of the hydrocarbon potential of Kotrum and Drigri anticlines located in Rajanpur Area, Midddle Indus Basin of Pakistan with the approach of geophysical data integration. The study area is situated between the Sulaiman Foldbelt on the west and Indus River in the east. It is an anticlinal fold, located to the southeast of Sakhi Sarwar anticline and separated from a prominent syncline. The structure has a narrow elongated crest, with the axis running in SSW-NNE direction. In the east, the structure is bounded by a gentle syncline. Structural Styles are trending East-West and perpendicular to tectonic transport and stress direction and the base of the structures gradually dipping Eastward beneath the deformation frontal part in Eastern Sulaiman Fold Belt. Middle Indus Basin can be divided into Foreland, Sulaiman fold belt and a broad foredeep. Sulaiman represents a blind thrust front, which suggests that all frontal folds of the fold belt are cored by blind thrust. The deformation of frontal part of Sulaiman Lobe represents the passive roof duplex stacked beneath the frontal passive roof thrust. The passive roof thrust, which has a back thrust sense of motion and extends into the interior of Fold belt. Left lateral Kingri Fault separates Eastern and Central Sulaiman fold belt. In Central Sulaiman fold belt the deformation front moved further towards fore deep as compared to Eastern Sulaiman. Two wells (Kotrum-01, Drigri-01) have been drilled in the study area with the objective to determine the potential of oil and gas in Habib Rahi Limestone of Eocene age, Dunghan Limestone of Paleocene age and Pab Sandstone of cretaceous age and role of structural styles in hydrocarbon potential of study area. Kotrum-01 well was drilled to its T.D of 4798m. Besides fishing and side tracking, tight whole conditions, high pressure, and losses of circulation were also encountered. During production, testing Pab sandstone were tested but abandoned found. Drigri-01 well was drilled to its T.D 3250 m. RFT was carried out at different points, but all points showed no pressure / seal failure and the well was plugged and declared abandoned.

Keywords: hydrocarbon potential, structural style, reserve calculation, enhance production

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Authors: Hasan Husnu Korkmaz, Serra Zerrin Korkmaz

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The reinforced concrete (RC) framed structures composed of beams, columns, shear walls and the slabs. The other members are assumed to be nonstructural. Especially the brick infill walls which are used to separate the rooms or spaces are just handled as dead loads. On the other hand, if these infills are constructed within the frame bays, they also have higher shear and compression capacities. It is a well-known fact that, brick infills increase the lateral rigidity of the structure and thought to be a reserve capacity in the design. But, brick infills can create unfavorable failure or damage modes in the earthquake action such as soft story or short columns. The increase in the lateral rigidity also causes an over estimation of natural period of the structure and the corresponding earthquake loads in the design are less than the actual ones. In order to obtain accurate and realistic design results, the infills must be modelled in the structural design and their capacities must be included. Unfortunately, in Turkish Earthquake Code, there is no design methodology for the engineers. In this paper, finite element modelling of infilled reinforced concrete structures are studied. The proposed or used method is compared with the experimental results of a previous study. The effect of infills on the structural response is expressed within the paper.

Keywords: seismic loading, brick infills, finite element analysis, reinforced concrete, earthquake code

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Authors: Ghada M. R. Koura, Ahmed M. F. El Shiwi

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Background: structural scoliosis is a twisting deformity in the curve of vertebral column to the lateral side with simultaneous rotation of the vertebrae, which occurs during the growing years from 10 years to the puberty. Purpose: Studies investigating balance problems specific to scoliotic patients showed that those patients reveal variable balance abnormalities. In this study we evaluated the difference in postural stability responses between female patients (students, office worker and shish weapon players) with structural scoliosis and normal subjects. Methods: sixty subjects participated in this study. Thirty female patients with structural scoliosis with a mean age of (19.5 ± 3.26) years, with Cobb's angle ranged from 20º to 40° in the major curves, and thirty healthy female subjects with a mean age of (19.36 ± 2.41) years. Postural stability of both groups were evaluated by the Biodex Stability System. Results: There was no significant difference between both groups in dynamic balance test. Interpretation/Conclusion: As there was no significant difference between both groups in balance response, it is not recommended to add balance training as an extra physical therapy program for AIS female patients.

Keywords: structural scoliosis, postural stability, female patients, evaluation

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Authors: D. V. S. Praneeth, V. R. Sankar Cheela, Brajesh Dubey

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Coal Combustion (CC) residues are the major by-products from thermal power plants. The disposal of ash on to land creates havoc to environment and humans. The leaching of the constituent elements pollutes ground water. Beneficiary use of coal combustion residues in structural components is being investigated as a part of this study. This application reduces stress on the convention materials in the construction industry. The present study involves determination of leaching parameters of the CC residues. Batch and column studies are performed based on Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) protocol. The column studies are conducted to simulate the real time percolation conditions in the field. The structural and environmental studies are performed to determine the usability of CC residues as bricks. The physical, chemical, geo environmental and mechanical properties of the alternate materials are investigated. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-Ray Diffraction analysis (XRD), X-ray fluorescence (XRF) and Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy tests were conducted to determine the characteristics of CC residue ash and bricks.

Keywords: coal combustion residues, LEAF, leaching, SEM

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Authors: Sharaf S. Omar

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In the current study, level and prevalence of deoxynivalenol (DON), aflatoxin B1 AFB1), zearalenone (ZEN), and ochratoxin A (OTA) in fried poultry eggs in Jordan was investigated. Poultry egg samples (n = 250) were collected. The level of DON, AFB1, ZEN and OTA in the white and yolk of poultry eggs was measured using LC-MS-MS. The health risk assessment was calculated using Margin of Exposures (MOEs) for AFB1 and OTA and hazard index (HI) for ZEN and DON. The highest prevalence in yolk and white of eggs was related to ZEN (96.56%) and OTA (97.44%), respectively. Also, the highest level in white and yolk was related to DON (1.07µg/kg) and DON (1.65 µg/kg), respectively. Level of DON in the yolk of eggs was significantly higher than white of eggs (P-value < 0.05). Risk assessment indicated that exposed population are at high risk of AFB1 (MOEs < 10,000) in fried poultry eggs.

Keywords: mycotoxins 2, aflatoxin b1, risk assessment, poultry egg

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Authors: Charuvan Kasemsap

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This research was studied in Bangnampriao District, Chachernsao Province, Thailand. The primary data relating to flooding, drought, and saline intrusion problem on agriculture were collected by surveying, focus group, and in-depth interview with agricultural officers, technical officers of irrigation department, and local government leader of Bangnampriao District. The likelihood and consequence of risk were determined the risk index by risk assessment matrix. In addition, the risk index and the total coping capacity scores were investigated the vulnerability index by vulnerability matrix. It was found that the high-risk drought and saline intrusion was dramatically along Bang Pakong River owing to the end destination of Chao Phraya Irrigation system of Central Thailand. This leads yearly the damage of rice paddy, mango tree, orchard, and fish pond. Therefore, some agriculture avoids rice growing during January to May, and also pumps fresh water from a canal into individual storage pond. However, Bangnampriao District will be strongly affected by the impacts of climate change. Monthly precipitations are expected to decrease in number; dry seasons are expected to be more in number and longer in duration. Thus, the risk and vulnerability of agriculture are also increasing. Adaptation strategies need to be put in place in order to enhance the resilience of the agriculture.

Keywords: agriculture, bangnampriao, climate change, risk assessment

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Authors: Qisheng Hu, Jianglei Han, Yue Yang, My Hoa Ha

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When a company is considering purchasing software for commercial use, contract risk assessment is critical to identify risks to mitigate the potential adverse business impact, e.g., security, financial and regulatory risks. Contract risk assessment requires reviewers with specialized knowledge and time to evaluate the legal documents manually. Specifically, validating contracts for a software vendor requires the following steps: manual screening, interpreting legal documents, and extracting risk-prone segments. To automate the process, we proposed a framework to assist legal contract document risk identification, leveraging pre-trained deep learning models and natural language processing techniques. Given a set of pre-defined risk evaluation problems, our framework utilizes the pre-trained transformer-based models for question-answering to identify risk-prone sections in a contract. Furthermore, the question-answering model encodes the concatenated question-contract text and predicts the start and end position for clause extraction. Due to the limited labelled dataset for training, we leveraged transfer learning by fine-tuning the models with the CUAD dataset to enhance the model. On a dataset comprising 287 contract documents and 2000 labelled samples, our best model achieved an F1 score of 0.687.

Keywords: contract risk assessment, NLP, transfer learning, question answering

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Authors: Manoel Pereira, Alvaro Veiga, Camila Epprecht, Renato Costa

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This paper introduces an empirical version of the Esscher transform for risk-neutral option pricing. Traditional parametric methods require the formulation of an explicit risk-neutral model and are operational only for a few probability distributions for the returns of the underlying. In our proposal, we make only mild assumptions on the pricing kernel and there is no need for the formulation of the risk-neutral model for the returns. First, we simulate sample paths for the returns under the physical distribution. Then, based on the empirical Esscher transform, the sample is reweighted, giving rise to a risk-neutralized sample from which derivative prices can be obtained by a weighted sum of the options pay-offs in each path. We compare our proposal with some traditional parametric pricing methods in four experiments with artificial and real data.

Keywords: esscher transform, generalized autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH), nonparametric option pricing

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Authors: Iulia Crisan

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Objective: The present study investigates the cross-cultural validity of three North-American performance validity indicators (PVTs) by comparing base rates of failure (BRF) in Romanian and Canadian disability applicants. Methods: Three PVTs (Test of Memory Malingering Trial 1 [TOMM-1], Rey Fifteen Item Test free recall [Rey-15 FR], and Rey FR+Recognition [Rey COMB]) were administered to a heterogeneous Romanian clinical sample (N Ro =54) and a similar Canadian sample (N Can = 52). Patients were referred for assessment to determine the severity of their cognitive deficits. Results: We compared the BRF in both samples at various cutoffs. BRF on TOMM-1 at ≤ 43 was similar (Ro = 33.3% vs. Can = 40.4%); at ≤40, Ro = 22.2% vs. Can = 25.0%. Likewise, comparable BRF were observed on Rey-15 FR at ≤ 8 (Ro = 7.4% vs. Can = 11.5%) and ≤ 11 (Ro = 27.8% vs. Can = 23.1%). However, the Romanian sample produced significantly higher failure rates on the Rey COMB at variable cutoffs (p <.05), possibly because Romanian patients were significantly older than the Canadian sample. Conclusion: Our findings offer proof of concept for the cross-cultural validity of the TOMM and Rey-15 FR. At the same time, they serve as a reminder that the generalizability of PVT cutoffs to different populations should not be assumed but verified empirically. Employing the TOMM as a criterion measure for newly developed PVTs is discussed.

Keywords: performance validity indicators, cross-cultural validity, failure base rates, clinical samples, cognitive dysfunction, TOMM-1, Rey-15, Rey COMB

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Authors: Majid Saaly, Shahriar Tavousi Tafreshi, Mehdi Nazari Afshar

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Most reinforced concrete structures are designed only under heavy loads have large transverse reinforcement spacing values, and therefore suffer severe failure after intense ground movements. The main goal of this paper is to compare the shear- and axial failure of concrete bending frames available in Tehran using incremental dynamic analysis under near- and far-field records. For this purpose, IDA analyses of 5, 10, and 15-story concrete structures were done under seven far-fault records and five near-faults records. The results show that in two-dimensional models of short-rise, mid-rise and high-rise reinforced concrete frames located on Type-3 soil, increasing the distance of the transverse reinforcement can increase the maximum inter-story drift ratio values up to 37%. According to the existing results on 5, 10, and 15-story reinforced concrete models located on Type-3 soil, records with characteristics such as fling-step and directivity create maximum drift values between floors more than far-fault earthquakes. The results indicated that in the case of seismic excitation modes under earthquake encompassing directivity or fling-step, the probability values of failure and failure possibility increasing rate values are much smaller than the corresponding values of far-fault earthquakes. However, in near-fault frame records, the probability of exceedance occurs at lower seismic intensities compared to far-fault records.

Keywords: IDA, failure curve, directivity, maximum floor drift, fling step, evaluating probable bending of frames, near-field and far-field earthquake records

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Authors: Madhav Khadilkar

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Construction of a large standby reservoir was required to provide secure water supply. The new reservoir was required to be constructed at the same location of an abandoned old open pond due to space constraints. Some investigations were carried out earlier to improvise and re-commission the existing pond. But due to a lack of quantified risk of settlement from voids in the underlying limestone, the shallow foundations were not found feasible. Since the reservoir was resting on hard strata for about three-quarter of plan area and one quarter was resting on soil underlying with limestone and considerably low subgrade modulus. Further investigations were carried out to ascertain the locations and extent of voids within the limestone. It was concluded that the risk due to lime dissolution was acceptably low, and the site was found geotechnically feasible. The hazard posed by limestone dissolution was addressed through the integrated structural and geotechnical analysis and design approach. Finite Element Analysis was carried out to quantify the stresses and differential settlement due to various probable loads and soil-structure interaction. Walls behaving as cantilever under operational loads were found undergoing in-plane bending and tensile forces due to soil-structure interaction. Sensitivity analysis for varying soil subgrade modulus was carried out to check the variation in the response of the structure and magnitude of stresses developed. The base slab was additionally checked for the loss of soil contact due to lime pocket formations at random locations. The expansion and contraction joints were planned to receive minimal additional forces due to differential settlement. The reservoir was designed to sustain the actions corresponding to allowable deformation limits per code, and geotechnical measures were proposed to achieve the soil parameters set in structural analysis.

Keywords: differential settlement, limestone dissolution, reservoir, soil structure interaction

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Authors: Hannes Koester

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Driven by difficult market conditions and increasing regulations, many banks are making the strategic decision to restructure their portfolio by divesting several business segments. Using a unique dataset of 727 portfolio restructuring announcements by 161 international listed banks over the period 1999 to 2015, we investigate the impact of restructuring measurements on the stock performance as well as on the banks’ profitability and risk. Employing the event study methodology, we detect positive stock market reactions on the announcement of restructuring measurements. These positive stock market reactions indicate that shareholders reward banks’ specialization activities. However, the results of the system GMM regressions show a negative relation between restructuring measurements and banks’ return on assets and a positive relation towards the individual and systemic risk of banks. These empirical results indicate that there is no guarantee that portfolio restructurings will result in a more profitable and less risky institution.

Keywords: bank performance, bank risk, divestiture, restructuring, systemic risk

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Authors: Shaya Alshahrani

Abstract:

Perceived risks play a major role in consumer intentions, behaviors, attitudes, and decisions about online shopping in the KSA. This paper investigates the influence of six perceived risk dimensions on Saudi consumers: product risk, information risk, financial risk, privacy and security risk, delivery risk, and terms and conditions risk empirically. To ensure the success of this study, a random survey was distributed to reflect the consumers’ perceived risk and to enable the generalization of the results. Data were collected from 323 respondents in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA): 50 who had never shopped online and 273 who had done so. The results indicated that all six risks influenced the respondents’ perceptions of online shopping. The non-online shoppers perceived financial and delivery risks as the most significant barriers to online shopping. This was followed closely by performance, information, and privacy and security risks. Terms and conditions were perceived as less significant. The online consumers considered delivery and performance risks to be the most significant influences on internet shopping. This was followed closely by information and terms and conditions. Financial and privacy and security risks were perceived as less significant. This paper argues that introducing adequate legal solutions to addressing related problems arising from this study is an urgent need. This may enhance consumer trust in the KSA online market, increase consumers’ intentions regarding online shopping, and improve consumer protection.

Keywords: perceived risk, online contracts, Saudi Arabia, consumer protection

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Authors: Mai A. Aljaberi

Abstract:

The anchorage of fibre-reinforced polymer (FRP) sheets is the most effective solution to prevent or delay debonding failure; this system has proven to get better levels of FRP utilization. Unfortunately, the related design information is still unclear. This shortcoming limits the widespread use of the anchorage system. In order to minimize the knowledge gap about the design of U-wrap anchors, this paper reports the results of tested beams which were strengthened with carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP) sheets at their tension sides and secured with U-wrap anchors at each end of the longitudinal CFRP. The beams were tested under four-point loading until failure. The parameters examined include the compressive strength of the concrete and the number of longitudinal CFRP. It is concluded that these parameters have a considerable effect on the debonding of the strain. The greatest improvement in the strain was 55.8% over the control beam.

Keywords: CFRP, concrete strengthening, debonding failure, debonding strain, U-wrap anchor

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Authors: Jo Angouri, Charlotte Kennedy, Shawnea Ting, David Rawlinson, Matthew Booker, Nigel Rees

Abstract:

Ambulance services need to balance the large volume of emergency (999 in the UK) calls they receive (e.g., West Midlands Ambulance Service reports per day about 4,000 999 calls; about 679,000 calls per year are received in Wales), with dispatching limited resource for on-site intervention to the most critical cases. The process by which Emergency Medical Dispatch (EMD) decisions are made is related to risk assessment and involves the caller and call-taker as well as clinical teams negotiating risk levels on a case-by-case basis. Medical Priority Dispatch System (MPDS – also referred to as Advanced Medical Priority Dispatch System AMPDS) are used in the UK by NHS Trusts (e.,g WAST) to process and prioritise 999 calls. MPDS / AMPDS provide structured protocols for call prioritisation and call management. Protocols/policy frameworks have not been examined before in the way we propose in our project. In more detail, the risk factors that play a role in the EMD negotiation between the caller and call-taker have been analysed in both medical and social science research. Research has focused on the structural, morphological and phonological aspects that could improve, and train, human-to-human interaction or automate risk detection, as well as the medical factors that need to be captured from the caller to inform the dispatch decision. There are two significant gaps in our knowledge that we address in our work: 1. the role of backstage clinical teams in translating the caller/call-taker interaction in their internal risk negotiation and, 2. the role of policy frameworks, protocols and regulations in the framing of institutional priorities and resource allocation. We take a multi method approach and combine the analysis of 999 calls with the analysis of policy documents. We draw on interaction analysis, corpus methodologies and thematic analysis. In this paper, we report on our preliminary findings and focus in particular on the risk factors we have identified and the relationship with the regulations that create the frame within which teams operate. We close the paper with implications of our study for providing evidence-based policy intervention and recommendations for further research.

Keywords: emergency (999) call, interaction analysis, discourse analysis, ambulance dispatch, medical discourse

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Authors: Gurbir Kaur, Surinder Pal Singh

Abstract:

The present study is a part of the research work on the effect of limestone powder (LP), silica fume (SF) and metakaolin (MK), on the flexural fatigue performance of steel fibre reinforced concrete (SFRC). Corrugated rectangular steel fibres of size 0.6x2.0x35 mm at a constant volume fraction of 1.0% have been incorporated in all mix combinations as the reinforcing material. Three mix combinations were prepared by replacing 30% of ordinary Portland cement (OPC) by weight with these cement additives in binary and ternary fashion to demonstrate their contribution. An experimental programme was conducted to obtain the fatigue lives of all mix combinations at various stress levels. The fatigue life data have been analysed as an attempt to determine the relationship between stress level ‘S’, number of cycles to failure ‘N’ and probability of failure ‘Pf’ for all mix combinations. The experimental coefficients of the fatigue equation have also been obtained from the fatigue data to represent the S-N-Pf curves analytically.

Keywords: cement additives, fatigue life, probability of failure, steel fibre reinforced concrete

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Authors: A. A. Omonori, K. T. Alade, A. F. Lawal

Abstract:

This research was conducted to identify the causes of project abandonment in Nigeria and the effect it has on the host community. The aim of the research was to identify the causes and effects of project failure and abandonment. Project abandonment is a major course of concern in the country as different projects fail and are abandoned at various levels. These projects do not fulfill the purpose for which they were initiated. This is the absolute definition of failure and hence the selection of the Ajaokuta Steel Project as an interesting case study and a typical example of project failure and abandonment. This has been done by conducting field study through the administration of questionnaires. This study was carried out on the Ajaokuta Steel Project to investigate the causes of the abandonment of the project and the effects it has had on the people of Ajaokuta community. Qualitative method of data analysis was used to analyze the findings through frequency tables and ranking. This study brought to light the major factors that led to the abandonment of the Ajaokuta Steel Project. The effects the abandonment of the project has had on the immediate community were identified and recommendations made to prevent the menace of Project abandonment.

Keywords: abandonment, case-study, Nigeria, project

Procedia PDF Downloads 361