Search results for: price forecast

Authors: E. U. Dampage, Ovindi D. Bandara, Vinushi S. Waraketiya, Samitha S. R. De Silva, Yasiru S. Gunarathne

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The knowledge of water inflow figures is paramount in decision making on the allocation for consumption for numerous purposes; irrigation, hydropower, domestic and industrial usage, and flood control. The understanding of how reservoir inflows are affected by different climatic and hydrological conditions is crucial to enable effective water management and downstream flood control. In this research, we propose a method using a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to assist the aforesaid decision-making process. The Kotmale reservoir, which is the uppermost reservoir in the Mahaweli reservoir complex in Sri Lanka, was used as the test bed for this research. The ANN uses the runoff in the Kotmale reservoir catchment area and the effect of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) to make a forecast for seven days ahead. Three types of ANN are tested; Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and LSTM. The extensive field trials and validation endeavors found that the LSTM ANN provides superior performance in the aspects of accuracy and latency.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, CNN, inflow, long short-term memory, LSTM, multi-layer perceptron, MLP, neural network

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Rong-Tsorng Wang

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In this paper, we derive a pricing formula for catastrophe equity put options (or CatEPut) with non-homogeneous loss and approximated compound distributions. We assume that the loss claims arrival process is a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) representing the clustering occurrences of loss claims, the size of loss claims is a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables, and the accumulated loss distribution forms a compound distribution and is approximated by a heavy-tailed distribution. A numerical example is given to calibrate parameters, and we discuss how the value of CatEPut is affected by the changes of parameters in the pricing model we provided.

Keywords: catastrophe equity put options, compound distributions, nonhomogeneous Poisson process, pricing model

Procedia PDF Downloads 163

Authors: Maher Agi, Hardik Soni

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This paper presents a deterministic model for optimized control of the inventory of a perishable product subject to both physical deterioration and degradation of its freshness condition. The demand for the product depends on its current inventory level and freshness condition. Our model allows for any positive amount of end of cycle inventory. Some useful conditions that characterize the optimal solution of the model are derived and an algorithm is presented for finding the optimal values of the price, the inventory cycle, the end of cycle inventory level and the order quantity. Numerical examples are then given. Our work shows how the product freshness in conjunction with the inventory deterioration affects the inventory management decisions.

Keywords: inventory management, lot sizing, perishable products, deteriorating inventory, age-dependent demand, stock-dependent demand

Procedia PDF Downloads 230

Authors: Z. S. Yip, T. K. Tan, C. C. Geh, T. T. Ting

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The mobile phone is an indispensable device in today’s daily living. The arising new brands in the market with different specification are targeting at the different population. The most promising market would be the younger generation who are IT savvy. Therefore, it is beneficial to find out their factors of consideration in purchasing a mobile phone. A survey is carried out in Malaysia to discover the current youngster’s mobile phone buying behavior. This study has found that the most influencing factor of consideration is Price, followed by Feature, and Battery Lifespan. Gender and Income have no relationship with certain factors of consideration. It is important to discover the factors of consideration in order to provide industry insight into the current trend of smartphone in Malaysia.

Keywords: buying behavior, smart phone, mobile brand, mobile operating system, specification, battery lifespan

Procedia PDF Downloads 349

Authors: R. Tlili Yaakoubi, H.Nakouri, O. Blanpain, S. Lallahem

Abstract:

The current tools for real time management of sewer systems are based on two software tools: the software of weather forecast and the software of hydraulic simulation. The use of the first ones is an important cause of imprecision and uncertainty, the use of the second requires temporal important steps of decision because of their need in times of calculation. This way of proceeding fact that the obtained results are generally different from those waited. The major idea of this project is to change the basic paradigm by approaching the problem by the "automatic" face rather than by that "hydrology". The objective is to make possible the realization of a large number of simulations at very short times (a few seconds) allowing to take place weather forecasts by using directly the real time meditative pluviometric data. The aim is to reach a system where the decision-making is realized from reliable data and where the correction of the error is permanent. A first model of control laws was realized and tested with different return-period rainfalls. The gains obtained in rejecting volume vary from 19 to 100 %. The development of a new algorithm was then used to optimize calculation time and thus to overcome the subsequent combinatorial problem in our first approach. Finally, this new algorithm was tested with 16- year-rainfall series. The obtained gains are 40 % of total volume rejected to the natural environment and of 65 % in the number of discharges.

Keywords: automation, optimization, paradigm, RTC

Procedia PDF Downloads 293

Authors: Manel Youssef, Lotfi Belkacem

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This paper employs multivariate long memory GARCH models to simultaneously estimate mean and conditional variance spillover effects between oil prices and different financial markets. Since different financial assets are traded based on these market sector returns, it’s important for financial market participants to understand the volatility transmission mechanism over time and across these series in order to make optimal portfolio allocation decisions. We examine weekly returns from January 1, 2003 to November 30, 2012 and find evidence of significant transmission of shocks and volatilities between oil prices and some of the examined financial markets. The findings support the idea of cross-market hedging and sharing of common information by investors.

Keywords: oil prices, stock indices returns, oil volatility, contagion, DCC-multivariate (FI) GARCH

Procedia PDF Downloads 526

Authors: Olufunke Olufunmilayo Ilemobayo, Barakat. O Abdulazeez

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Profit making among poultry egg farmers has been a challenge to efficient distribution of scarce farm resources over the years, due majorly to low capital base, inefficient management, technical inefficiency, economic inefficiency, thus poultry egg production has moved into an underperformed situation, characterised by low profit margin. Though previous studies focus mainly on broiler production and efficiency of its production, however, paucity of information exist in the areas of profit efficiency in the study area. Hence, determinants of profit efficiency among poultry egg farmers in Ondo State, Nigeria were investigated. A purposive sampling technique was used to obtain primary data from poultry egg farmers in Owo and Akure local government area of Ondo State, through a well-structured questionnaire. socio-economic characteristics such as age, gender, educational level, marital status, household size, access to credit, extension contact, other variables were input and output data like flock size, cost of feeder and drinker, cost of feed, cost of labour, cost of drugs and medications, cost of energy, price of crate of table egg, price of spent layers were variables used in the study. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, budgeting analysis, and stochastic profit function/inefficiency model. Result of the descriptive statistics shows that 52 per cent of the poultry farmers were between 31-40 years, 62 per cent were male, 90 per cent had tertiary education, 66 per cent were primarily poultry farmers, 78 per cent were original poultry farm owners and 55 per cent had more than 5 years’ work experience. Descriptive statistics on cost and returns indicated that 64 per cent of the return were from sales of egg, while the remaining 36 per cent was from sales of spent layers. The cost of feeding take the highest proportion of 69 per cent of cost of production and cost of medication the lowest (7 per cent). A positive gross margin of N5, 518,869.76, net farm income of ₦ 5, 500.446.82 and net return on investment of 0.28 indicated poultry egg production is profitable. Equipment’s cost (22.757), feeding cost (18.3437), labour cost (136.698), flock size (16.209), drug and medication cost (4.509) were factors that affecting profit efficiency, while education (-2.3143), household size (-18.4291), access to credit (-16.027), and experience (-7.277) were determinant of profit efficiency. Education, household size, access to credit and experience in poultry production were the main determinants of profit efficiency of poultry egg production in Ondo State. Other factors that affect profit efficiency were cost of feeding, cost of labour, flock size, cost of drug and medication, they positively and significantly influenced profit efficiency in Ondo State, Nigeria.

Keywords: cost and returns, economic inefficiency, profit margin, technical inefficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: M. Farhaoui, M. Derraz

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In the drinking water treatment processes, the optimization of the treatment is an issue of particular concern. In general, the process consists of many units as settling, coagulation, flocculation, sedimentation, filtration and disinfection. The optimization of the process consists of some measures to decrease the managing and monitoring expenses and improve the quality of the produced water. The objective of this study is to provide water treatment operators with methods and practices that enable to attain the most effective use of the facility and, in consequence, optimize the of the cubic meter price of the treated water. This paper proposes a review on optimization of drinking water treatment process by analyzing all of the water treatment units and gives some solutions in order to maximize the water treatment performances without compromising the water quality standards. Some solutions and methods are performed in the water treatment plant located in the middle of Morocco (Meknes).

Keywords: coagulation process, optimization, turbidity removal, water treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 414

Authors: Nina Miklavčič, Urška Kugovnik, Natalia Galkina, Primož Ribarič, Rudi Vončina

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Today, the need for weather predictions is deeply rooted in the everyday life of people as well as it is in industry. The forecasts influence final decision-making processes in multiple areas, from agriculture and prevention of natural disasters to air traffic regulations and solutions on a national level for health, security, and economic problems. Namely, in Slovenia, alongside other existing forms of application, weather forecasts are adopted for the prognosis of electrical current transmission through powerlines. Meteorological parameters are one of the key factors which need to be considered in estimations of the reliable supply of electrical energy to consumers. And like for any other measured value, the knowledge about measurement uncertainty is also critical for the secure and reliable supply of energy. The estimation of measurement uncertainty grants us a more accurate interpretation of data, a better quality of the end results, and even a possibility of improvement of weather forecast models. In the article, we focused on the estimation of measurement uncertainty of the diagnostic microscale meteorological model CALMET. For the purposes of our research, we used a network of meteorological stations spread in the area of our interest, which enables a side-by-side comparison of measured meteorological values with the values calculated with the help of CALMET and the measurement uncertainty estimation as a final result.

Keywords: uncertancy, meteorological model, meteorological measurment, CALMET

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Authors: N. Sabiyath Fatima, R. K. Shanmugasundaram

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In Mobile Ad-hoc Networks (MANETS), every node performs both as transmitter and receiver. The existing backoff models do not exactly forecast the performance of the wireless network. Also, the existing models experience elevated packet collisions. Every time a collision happens, the station’s contention window (CW) is doubled till it arrives at the utmost value. The main objective of this paper is to diminish collision by means of contention window Multiplicative Increase Decrease Backoff (CWMIDB) scheme. The intention of rising CW is to shrink the collision possibility by distributing the traffic into an outsized point in time. Within wireless Ad hoc networks, the CWMIDB algorithm dynamically controls the contention window of the nodes experiencing collisions. During packet communication, the backoff counter is evenly selected from the given choice of [0, CW-1]. At this point, CW is recognized as contention window and its significance lies on the amount of unsuccessful transmission that had happened for the packet. On the initial transmission endeavour, CW is put to least amount value (C min), if transmission effort fails, subsequently the value gets doubled, and once more the value is set to least amount on victorious broadcast. CWMIDB is simulated inside NS2 environment and its performance is compared with Binary Exponential Backoff Algorithm. The simulation results show improvement in transmission probability compared to that of the existing backoff algorithm.

Keywords: backoff, contention window, CWMIDB, MANET

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Authors: Tzu-Ching Weng, Hsin-Yi Chi

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This study examines the effect of family succession on the cost of bank loans and non-price contractual terms. We use a unique dataset from China and find that lending banks are likely to charge high-interest rates and offer tight contractual terms, such as loan maturity and collateral requirement, for family succession firms. These findings indicate that information and default risks may arise after subsequent family successions. We also find that family succession firms can reduce the cost of bank loans by hiring top-tier auditors to enhance financial reporting credibility. This finding suggests that professional and high-quality auditors can provide extremely valuable services to family succession firms.

Keywords: family succession, cost of bank loans, loan contract terms, top-tier auditor

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Lim Sanny, Felix Christian

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The use of heavy equipment in Indonesia is always increasing. Cost reduction in procurement of spare parts is the aim of the company. The spare parts in this research are focused in the kind of filters. On the early step, the choosing of priority filter will be studied further by using the ABC analysis. To find out future demand of the filter, this research is using demand forecast by utilizing the QM software for windows. And to find out the best method of inventory control for each kind of filter is by comparing the total cost of Economic Order Quantity and Quick response inventory method. For the three kind of filters which are Cartridge, Engine oil – pn : 600-211-123, Element, Transmission – pn : 424-16-11140, and Element, Hydraulic – pn : 07063-01054, the best forecasting method is Linear regression. The best method for inventory control of Cartridge, Engine oil – pn : 600-211-123 and Element, Transmission – pn : 424-16-11140, is Quick Response Inventory, while the best method for Element, Hydraulic – pn : 07063-01054 is Economic Order Quantity.

Keywords: strategy, inventory, ABC analysis, forecasting, economic order quantity, quick response inventory

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Authors: Joseph Ndegwa

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Changes are required if energy systems are to foster long-term growth. The main problems are increasing access to inexpensive, dependable, and sufficient energy supply while addressing environmental implications at all levels. Policies can help to promote sustainable development by providing adequate and inexpensive energy sources to underserved regions, such as liquid and gaseous fuels for cooking and electricity for household and commercial usage. Promoting energy efficiency. Increased utilization of new renewables. Spreading and implementing additional innovative energy technologies. Markets can achieve many of these goals with the correct policies, pricing, and regulations. However, if markets do not work or fail to preserve key public benefits, tailored government policies, programs, and regulations can achieve policy goals. The main strategies for promoting sustainable energy systems are simple. However, they need a broader recognition of the difficulties we confront, as well as a firmer commitment to specific measures. Making markets operate better by minimizing pricing distortions, boosting competition, and removing obstacles to energy efficiency are among the measures. Complementing the reform of the energy industry with policies that promote sustainable energy. Increasing investments in renewable energy. Increasing the rate of technical innovation at each level of the energy innovation chain. Fostering technical leadership in underdeveloped nations by transferring technology and enhancing institutional and human capabilities. promoting more international collaboration. Governments, international organizations, multilateral financial institutions, and civil society—including local communities, business and industry, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and consumers—all have critical enabling roles to play in the problem of sustainable energy. Partnerships based on integrated and cooperative approaches and drawing on real-world experience will be necessary. Setting the required framework conditions and ensuring that public institutions collaborate effectively and efficiently with the rest of society are common themes across all industries and geographical areas in order to achieve sustainable development. Powerful tools for sustainable development include energy. However, significant policy adjustments within the larger enabling framework will be necessary to refocus its influence in order to achieve that aim. Many of the options currently accessible will be lost or the price of their ultimate realization (where viable) will grow significantly if such changes don't take place during the next several decades and aren't started right enough. In any case, it would seriously impair the capacity of future generations to satisfy their demands.

Keywords: sustainable development, reliable, price, policy

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Authors: Mohammad Aldubyan, Fateh Belaid, Anwar Gasim

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This paper aims at linking to link residential energy efficiency to the rebound effect concept, a well-known behavioral phenomenon in which service consumption increases when consumers notice a reduction in monetary spending on energy due to improvements in energy efficiency. It provides insights on into how and why the rebound effect happens when energy efficiency improves and whether this phenomenon is positive or negative. It also shows one technique to estimate the rebound effect on the national residential level. The paper starts with a bird’s eye view of the rebound effect and then dives in in-depth into measuring the rebound effect and evaluating its impact. Finally, the paper estimates the rebound effect in the Saudi residential sector through by linking pre-estimated price elasticities of demand to the Saudi residential building stock.

Keywords: energy efficiency, rebound effect, energy consumption, residential electricity demand

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Ezrah Kipkirui Tonui, George Otieno Orwa

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A survey of 138 farmers was conducted in Rift valley, Kenya, in November and December 2013 in three counties (Uasin-gishu, Elgeyo-marakwet, and Tranzoia) to determine public knowledge and attitude towards genetically modified (GM) maize. Above two third (70%) of the respondents had knowledge of GM maize, mostly those educated and male. Female was found to be having low knowledge on GM maize. Public acknowledged the technology’s potential positive impacts, with more than 90% willing to adopt and more than 98% willing to buy GM seedlings at any given price. A small percentage less than 3% were of a negative opinion about willing to buy and adopt GM seeds. We conclude that GM technology has a role to play in food security in Kenya. However, the public needs more information about the technology, which can be provided through established sources of information and training. Finally, public knowledge and attitude on GM maize should be studied on a regular basis, and the survey population broadened to 47 counties.

Keywords: public, knowledge, attitudes, GM maize, Kenya

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Authors: Trikhun Rotkasem

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This research paper aimed to investigate hotel customers’ attitudes towards the service marketing, service behavior and perceived brand value. The focus of the study was on the Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University’s hotel. It is a small hotel which aims to provide service to mainly university’s guests. A simple random sampling technique was conducted to obtain a sample group that included 200 respondents. The research question was established as follows: What are customers’ attitudes towards the service marketing mix of hotel customers? The findings revealed the respondents’ attitudes towards the service marketing mix indicated high level in the area of product, place or distribution channel, people, and physical evidence, whereas, the respondents’ attitude towards the service marketing mix indicated medium level in the area of price, promotion, and process.

Keywords: marketing mix, perceived brand value, service behavior, hotel customers

Procedia PDF Downloads 433

Authors: C. Fúnez Guerra, B. Nieto Calderón, M. Jaén Caparrós, L. Reyes-Bozo, A. Godoy-Faúndez, E. Vyhmeister

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The global energy system is experiencing a change of scenery. Unstable energy markets, an increasing focus on climate change and its sustainable development is forcing businesses to pursue new solutions in order to ensure future economic growth. This has led to the interest in using hydrogen as an energy carrier in transportation and industrial applications. As an energy carrier, hydrogen is accessible and holds a high gravimetric energy density. Abundant in hydrocarbons, hydrogen can play an important role in the shift towards low-emission fossil value chains. By combining hydrogen production by natural gas reforming with carbon capture and storage, the overall CO2 emissions are significantly reduced. In addition, the flexibility of hydrogen as an energy storage makes it applicable as a stabilizer in the renewable energy mix. The recent development in hydrogen fuel cells is also raising the expectations for a hydrogen powered transportation sector. Hydrogen value chains exist to a large extent in the industry today. The global hydrogen consumption was approximately 50 million tonnes (7.2 EJ) in 2013, where refineries, ammonia, methanol production and metal processing were main consumers. Natural gas reforming produced 48% of this hydrogen, but without carbon capture and storage (CCS). The total emissions from the production reached 500 million tonnes of CO2, hence alternative production methods with lower emissions will be necessary in future value chains. Hydrogen from electrolysis is used for a wide range of industrial chemical reactions for many years. Possibly, the earliest use was for the production of ammonia-based fertilisers by Norsk Hydro, with a test reactor set up in Notodden, Norway, in 1927. This application also claims one of the world’s largest electrolyser installations, at Sable Chemicals in Zimbabwe. Its array of 28 electrolysers consumes 80 MW per hour, producing around 21,000 Nm3/h of hydrogen. These electrolysers can compete if cheap sources of electricity are available and natural gas for steam reforming is relatively expensive. Because electrolysis of water produces oxygen as a by-product, a system of Autothermal Reforming (ATR) utilizing this oxygen has been analyzed. Replacing the air separation unit with electrolysers produces the required amount of oxygen to the ATR as well as additional hydrogen. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the technical and economic potential of large-scale production of hydrogen for oil refining industry. Sensitivity analysis of parameters such as investment costs, plant operating hours, electricity price and sale price of hydrogen and oxygen are performed.

Keywords: autothermal reforming, electrolyser, hydrogen, natural gas, steam methane reforming

Procedia PDF Downloads 207

Authors: Rabaa Tlili Yaakoubi, Hind Nakouri, Olivier Blanpain

Abstract:

The current tools for real time management of sewer systems are based on two software tools: the software of weather forecast and the software of hydraulic simulation. The use of the first ones is an important cause of imprecision and uncertainty, the use of the second requires temporal important steps of decision because of their need in times of calculation. This way of proceeding fact that the obtained results are generally different from those waited. The major idea of the CARDIO project is to change the basic paradigm by approaching the problem by the "automatic" face rather than by that "hydrology". The objective is to make possible the realization of a large number of simulations at very short times (a few seconds) allowing to take place weather forecasts by using directly the real time meditative pluviometric data. The aim is to reach a system where the decision-making is realized from reliable data and where the correction of the error is permanent. A first model of control laws was realized and tested with different return-period rainfalls. The gains obtained in rejecting volume vary from 40 to 100%. The development of a new algorithm was then used to optimize calculation time and thus to overcome the subsequent combinatorial problem in our first approach. Finally, this new algorithm was tested with 16- year-rainfall series. The obtained gains are 60% of total volume rejected to the natural environment and of 80 % in the number of discharges.

Keywords: RTC, paradigm, optimization, automation

Procedia PDF Downloads 278

Authors: Farhad Alizadeh, Alireza Faregh Gharamaleki, Mojtaba Jalilzadeh, Houshang Gholami, Ali Akhoundzadeh

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This study presented hybrid pre-processing approach along with a conceptual model to enhance the accuracy of river discharge prediction. In order to achieve this goal, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition algorithm (EEMD), Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and Mutual Information (MI) were employed as a hybrid pre-processing approach conjugated to Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM). A conceptual strategy namely multi-station model was developed to forecast the Souris River discharge more accurately. The strategy used herein was capable of covering uncertainties and complexities of river discharge modeling. DWT and EEMD was coupled, and the feature selection was performed for decomposed sub-series using MI to be employed in multi-station model. In the proposed feature selection method, some useless sub-series were omitted to achieve better performance. Results approved efficiency of the proposed DWT-EEMD-MI approach to improve accuracy of multi-station modeling strategies.

Keywords: river stage-discharge process, LSSVM, discrete wavelet transform, Ensemble Empirical Decomposition Mode, multi-station modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Anocha Rojanapanich

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This research aimed to identify important factors that effect customer satisfaction in boutique hotels and the important factors effecting customer loyalty in returning to boutique hotels. Furthermore, this study also aimed to study demographics, which effect variable factors. Four hundred questionnaires were completed by customers of the boutique hotels. The descriptive statistics used in this paper were percentages, means, and standard deviation (S.D.), while hypothesis testing was done using T-test, Anova, Correlation and Regression to analyze the relationship among those factors. In terms of the purpose in staying, it was found that the largest respondent was for ‘leisure purposes’. While the frequency indicated that most of the customers who stayed ‘once’in the last two years in the hotels had less concern in the hotel’s image than other groups. For customer’s perceived value and income levels had an influence on customer perceived values in both functional value price and emotional value.

Keywords: boutique hotels, customer attitude, customer satisfaction, customer loyalty

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Authors: Nato Kutaladze, George Mikuchadze, Giorgi Sokhadze

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Precipitation forecasts are one of the most demanding applications in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Georgia, as the whole Caucasian region, is characterized by very complex topography. The country territory is prone to flash floods and mudflows, quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at any leading time are very important for Georgia. In this study, advanced research weather forecasting model’s skill in QPF is investigated over Georgia’s territory. We have analyzed several convection parameterization and microphysical scheme combinations for different rainy episodes and heavy rainy phenomena. We estimate errors and biases in accumulated 6 h precipitation using different spatial resolution during model performance verification for 12-hour and 24-hour lead time against corresponding rain gouge observations and satellite data. Various statistical parameters have been calculated for the 8-month comparison period, and some skills of model simulation have been evaluated. Our focus is on the formation and organization of convective precipitation systems in a low-mountain region. Several problems in connection with QPF have been identified for mountain regions, which include the overestimation and underestimation of precipitation on the windward and lee side of the mountains, respectively, and a phase error in the diurnal cycle of precipitation leading to the onset of convective precipitation in model forecasts several hours too early.

Keywords: extremal dependence index, false alarm, numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecasting

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Authors: Rasha Waheeb, Bjorn Andersen, Rafa Shakir

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Purpose The purpose of this study is to avoid delays that occur in emergency reconstruction projects especially in post disaster circumstances whether if they were natural or manmade due to their particular national and humanitarian importance. We presented a theoretical and practical concepts for projects management in the field of construction industry that deal with a range of global and local trails. This study aimed to identify the factors of effective delay in construction projects in Iraq that affect the time and the specific quality cost, and find the best solutions to address delays and solve the problem by setting parameters to restore balance in this study. 30 projects were selected in different areas of construction were selected as a sample for this study. Design/methodology/approach This study discusses the reconstruction strategies and delay in time and cost caused by different delay factors in some selected projects in Iraq (Baghdad as a case study).A case study approach was adopted, with thirty construction projects selected from the Baghdad region, of different types and sizes. Project participants from the case projects provided data about the projects through a data collection instrument distributed through a survey. Mixed approach and methods were applied in this study. Mathematical data analysis was used to construct models to predict delay in time and cost of projects before they started. The artificial neural networks analysis was selected as a mathematical approach. These models were mainly to help decision makers in construction project to find solutions to these delays before they cause any inefficiency in the project being implemented and to strike the obstacles thoroughly to develop this industry in Iraq. This approach was practiced using the data collected through survey and questionnaire data collection as information form. Findings The most important delay factors identified leading to schedule overruns were contractor failure, redesigning of designs/plans and change orders, security issues, selection of low-price bids, weather factors, and owner failures. Some of these are quite in line with findings from similar studies in other countries/regions, but some are unique to the Iraqi project sample, such as security issues and low-price bid selection. Originality/value we selected ANN’s analysis first because ANN’s was rarely used in project management , and never been used in Iraq to finding solutions for problems in construction industry. Also, this methodology can be used in complicated problems when there is no interpretation or solution for a problem. In some cases statistical analysis was conducted and in some cases the problem is not following a linear equation or there was a weak correlation, thus we suggested using the ANN’s because it is used for nonlinear problems to find the relationship between input and output data and that was really supportive.

Keywords: construction projects, delay factors, emergency reconstruction, innovation ANN, post disasters, project management

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Authors: Hande Begum Bumin Doyduk, Elif Okan Yolbulan

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Innovation is very important for success and competitiveness of countries, as well as business sectors and individuals' firms. In order to have successful and sustainable innovations, the other side of the game, consumers, should be aware of the innovations and appreciate them. In this study, the consumer innovativeness is focused and the relationship between motivated consumer innovativeness and consumer shopping styles is analyzed. Motivated consumer innovativeness scale by (Vandecasteele & Geuens, 2010) and consumer shopping styles scale by (Sproles & Kendall, 1986) is used. Data is analyzed by SPSS 20 program through realibility, factor, and correlation analysis. According to the findings of the study, there are strong positive relationships between hedonic innovativeness and recreational shopping style; social innovativeness and brand consciousness; cognitive innovativeness and price consciousness and functional innovativeness and perfectionistic high-quality conscious shopping styles.

Keywords: consumer innovativeness, consumer decision making, shopping styles, innovativeness

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Authors: A. A. Hussen, I. N. Jleta

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Micro-electromechanical system (MEMS) accelerometers and gyroscopes are suitable for the inertial navigation system (INS) of many applications due to the low price, small dimensions and light weight. The main disadvantage in a comparison with classic sensors is a worse long term stability. The estimation accuracy is mostly affected by the time-dependent growth of inertial sensor errors, especially the stochastic errors. In order to eliminate negative effect of these random errors, they must be accurately modeled. Where the key is the successful implementation that depends on how well the noise statistics of the inertial sensors is selected. In this paper, the Allan variance technique will be used in modeling the stochastic errors of the inertial sensors. By performing a simple operation on the entire length of data, a characteristic curve is obtained whose inspection provides a systematic characterization of various random errors contained in the inertial-sensor output data.

Keywords: Allan variance, accelerometer, gyroscope, stochastic errors

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Authors: Majdi Abid

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During the last few decades, great efforts have been made for the development of innovative materials using vegetal biomass. This strategy is understandable for different reasons including the predictable dwindling of the petrochemical feedstock and their price increase as well as the counterbalancing of the environmental problems. As novel bio-based monomers used in polyesters synthesis, two families, namely 1,4:3,6-dianhydrohexitols and furanics were prepared for saccharidic renewable resources. The present work deals with a detail investigation on the synthesis of poly(ethylene-co-isosorbide terephthalate-co-furoate) (PEITF) by melt polycondensation of dimethylterephtalate (DMT), 5,5’-isopropylidene-bis (ethyl 2-furoate) (DEF) ethan-1,2-diol (ED) and isosorbide (IS). Polycondensationwas achieved in two steps: (i) the formation of a hydroxyethylterminated oligomer by reaction of starting diester mixture with excess ED and, (ii) a polycondensation step with elimination of ED was used to obtain high molar mass copolyesters. Copolymers of various compositions were synthesized and characterized by 1H NMR, SEC, DSC and TGA. The resulting materials are amorphous polymers (Tg = 104–127 °C) with good thermal stability.

Keywords: bio-based monomers, furan, isosrbide, polycondensation

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Authors: Selman Selim Akyüz, Mete Kazaz

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Since The First Gulf War, USA, “Leader of The Free World” has been in trouble with terror. The USA created a complexity in The Middle East and paid the price with terrorist attacks in homeland. USA has made serious mistakes in terms of antiterrorism and fight against its supporters. Democrats have repaired damages caused by the Republican Party's management. Old methods about antiterrorism have been slowly abandoned. Hollywood, too, has played an important part in this war. Sometimes, Hollywood became an unquestioned patriot, sometimes it cried for the death of American Soldiers far away. In this study, messages in The Homeland, broadcast in the USA and a lot of countries around the world, are analyzed in terms of Washington’s foreign policy and position of the CIA in the fight against antiterrorism. The series reflect an orientalist viewpoint and has been criticized for offensive policy against the government. Homeland wanted to offer a perspective for the USA to be the “Leader of The Free World” again but with a liberal-democrat approach, dialogue and rational intelligence methods.

Keywords: antiterrorism, CIA, homeland, USA

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Authors: A.N. Zhilkaidarov, G.K. Iskakova, V.Y. Chernyh

Abstract:

High-qualified and not-expensive products of daily usage have a big demand on food products’ market. Moreover, it is about independent and irreplaceable product as pasta. Pasta is a product, which represents itself the conserved dough from wheat flour made through special milling process. A wide assortment of the product and its pleasant taste properties allow to use pasta products in very different combinations with other food products. Pasta industry of Kazakhstan has large perspectives of development. There are many premises for it, which includes first an importance of pasta as a social product. Due to for its nutritional and energetically value pasta is the part of must have food. Besides that, the pasta production in Kazakhstan has traditional bases, and nowadays the market of this product develops rapidly as in quantity as well as in quality aspects. Moreover, one of the advantages of this branch is an economical aspect – pasta is the product of secondary processing, and therefore price for sailing is much higher as its own costs.

Keywords: pasta, new wheat sorts, domesic sorts of wheat, macaronic flour

Procedia PDF Downloads 521

Authors: Clarinda Vitorino Nhangumbe, Fredericks Ebrahim, Betuel Canhanga

Abstract:

The price of an option weather derivatives can be approximated as a solution of the two-dimensional convection-diffusion dominant partial differential equation derived from the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, where one variable represents the weather dynamics and the other variable represent the underlying weather index. With appropriate financial boundary conditions, the solution of the pricing equation is approximated using a nonstandard finite difference method. It is shown that the proposed numerical scheme preserves positivity as well as stability and consistency. In order to illustrate the accuracy of the method, the numerical results are compared with other methods. The model is tested for real weather data.

Keywords: nonstandard finite differences, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, partial differential equations approach, weather derivatives

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Farzaneh Khorram

Abstract:

This paper endeavors to construct a block model to assess grinding energy consumption (CCE) and pinpoint blocks with the highest potential for energy usage during the grinding process within a specified region. Leveraging geostatistical techniques, particularly joint estimation, or simulation, based on geometallurgical data from various mineral processing stages, our objective is to forecast CCE across the study area. The dataset encompasses variables obtained from 2754 drill samples and a block model comprising 4680 blocks. The initial analysis encompassed exploratory data examination, variography, multivariate analysis, and the delineation of geological and structural units. Subsequent analysis involved the assessment of contacts between these units and the estimation of CCE via cokriging, considering its correlation with SPI. The selection of blocks exhibiting maximum CCE holds paramount importance for cost estimation, production planning, and risk mitigation. The study conducted exploratory data analysis on lithology, rock type, and failure variables, revealing seamless boundaries between geometallurgical units. Simulation methods, such as Plurigaussian and Turning band, demonstrated more realistic outcomes compared to cokriging, owing to the inherent characteristics of geometallurgical data and the limitations of kriging methods.

Keywords: geometallurgy, multivariate analysis, plurigaussian, turning band method, cokriging

Procedia PDF Downloads 56

Authors: Piotr Fiszeder, Marcin Fałdziński, Peter Molnár

Abstract:

The dynamic conditional correlation model of Engle (2002) is one of the most popular multivariate volatility models. However, this model is based solely on closing prices. It has been documented in the literature that the high and low price of the day can be used in an efficient volatility estimation. We, therefore, suggest a model which incorporates high and low prices into the dynamic conditional correlation framework. Empirical evaluation of this model is conducted on three datasets: currencies, stocks, and commodity exchange-traded funds. The utilisation of realized variances and covariances as proxies for true variances and covariances allows us to reach a strong conclusion that our model outperforms not only the standard dynamic conditional correlation model but also a competing range-based dynamic conditional correlation model.

Keywords: volatility, DCC model, high and low prices, range-based models, covariance forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 178