Using ANN in Emergency Reconstruction Projects Post Disaster

Authors: Rasha Waheeb, Bjorn Andersen, Rafa Shakir

Abstract:

Purpose The purpose of this study is to avoid delays that occur in emergency reconstruction projects especially in post disaster circumstances whether if they were natural or manmade due to their particular national and humanitarian importance. We presented a theoretical and practical concepts for projects management in the field of construction industry that deal with a range of global and local trails. This study aimed to identify the factors of effective delay in construction projects in Iraq that affect the time and the specific quality cost, and find the best solutions to address delays and solve the problem by setting parameters to restore balance in this study. 30 projects were selected in different areas of construction were selected as a sample for this study. Design/methodology/approach This study discusses the reconstruction strategies and delay in time and cost caused by different delay factors in some selected projects in Iraq (Baghdad as a case study).A case study approach was adopted, with thirty construction projects selected from the Baghdad region, of different types and sizes. Project participants from the case projects provided data about the projects through a data collection instrument distributed through a survey. Mixed approach and methods were applied in this study. Mathematical data analysis was used to construct models to predict delay in time and cost of projects before they started. The artificial neural networks analysis was selected as a mathematical approach. These models were mainly to help decision makers in construction project to find solutions to these delays before they cause any inefficiency in the project being implemented and to strike the obstacles thoroughly to develop this industry in Iraq. This approach was practiced using the data collected through survey and questionnaire data collection as information form. Findings The most important delay factors identified leading to schedule overruns were contractor failure, redesigning of designs/plans and change orders, security issues, selection of low-price bids, weather factors, and owner failures. Some of these are quite in line with findings from similar studies in other countries/regions, but some are unique to the Iraqi project sample, such as security issues and low-price bid selection. Originality/value we selected ANN’s analysis first because ANN’s was rarely used in project management , and never been used in Iraq to finding solutions for problems in construction industry. Also, this methodology can be used in complicated problems when there is no interpretation or solution for a problem. In some cases statistical analysis was conducted and in some cases the problem is not following a linear equation or there was a weak correlation, thus we suggested using the ANN’s because it is used for nonlinear problems to find the relationship between input and output data and that was really supportive.

Keywords: construction projects, delay factors, emergency reconstruction, innovation ANN, post disasters, project management