Search results for: FDM modelling

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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This talk presents a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. We establish that the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters and future values is well defined. The associated MCMC algorithm for parameter estimation and forecasting converges to the posterior distribution quickly. We also present a combining forecasts technique to produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts by using a weighted sequence of fitted QAR models. A moving window method to check the quality of the estimated conditional quantiles is developed. We verify our methodology using simulation studies and then apply it to currency exchange rate data. An application of the method to the USD to GBP daily currency exchange rates will also be discussed. The results obtained show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, quantile modelling, quantile forecasting, predictive density functions

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Authors: Sinan Yapici, Hayrettin Eroglu

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The discharge of the aqueous radionuclides wastes used for the diagnoses of diseases and treatments of patients in nuclear medicine can cause fatal health problems when the radionuclides and its stable daughter component mix with underground water. Tl-201, which is one of the radionuclides commonly used in the nuclear medicine, is a toxic substance and is converted to its stable daughter component Hg-201, which is also a poisonous heavy metal: Tl201 → Hg201 + Gamma Ray [135-167 Kev (12%)] + X Ray [69-83 Kev (88%)]; t1/2 = 73,1 h. The purpose of the present work was to remove Tl-201 radionuclides from aqueous solution by biosorption on the solid bio wastes of food and cosmetic industry as bio sorbents of prina from an olive oil plant, rose residue from a rose oil plant and tea residue from a tea plant, and to make a comparison of the biosorption efficiencies. The effects of the biosorption temperature, initial pH of the aqueous solution, bio sorbent dose, particle size and stirring speed on the biosorption yield were investigated in a batch process. It was observed that the biosorption is a rapid process with an equilibrium time less than 10 minutes for all the bio sorbents. The efficiencies were found to be close to each other and measured maximum efficiencies were 93,30 percent for rose residue, 94,1 for prina and 98,4 for tea residue. In a temperature range of 283 and 313 K, the adsorption decreased with increasing temperature almost in a similar way. In a pH range of 2-10, increasing pH enhanced biosorption efficiency up to pH=7 and then the efficiency remained constant in a similar path for all the biosorbents. Increasing stirring speed from 360 to 720 rpm enhanced slightly the biosorption efficiency almost at the same ratio for all bio sorbents. Increasing particle size decreased the efficiency for all biosorbent; however the most negatively effected biosorbent was prina with a decrease in biosorption efficiency from about 84 percent to 40 with an increase in the nominal particle size 0,181 mm to 1,05 while the least effected one, tea residue, went down from about 97 percent to 87,5. The biosorption efficiencies of all the bio sorbents increased with increasing biosorbent dose in the range of 1,5 to 15,0 g/L in a similar manner. The fit of the experimental results to the adsorption isotherms proved that the biosorption process for all the bio sorbents can be represented best by Freundlich model. The kinetic analysis showed that all the processes fit very well to pseudo second order rate model. The thermodynamics calculations gave ∆G values between -8636 J mol-1 and -5378 for tea residue, -5313 and -3343 for rose residue, and -5701 and -3642 for prina with a ∆H values of -39516 J mol-1, -23660 and -26190, and ∆S values of -108.8 J mol-1 K-1, -64,0, -72,0 respectively, showing spontaneous and exothermic character of the processes. An empirical biosorption model in the following form was derived for each biosorbent as function of the parameters and time, taking into account the form of kinetic model, with regression coefficients over 0.9990 where At is biosorbtion efficiency at any time and Ae is the equilibrium efficiency, t is adsorption period as s, ko a constant, pH the initial acidity of biosorption medium, w the stirring speed as s-1, S the biosorbent dose as g L-1, D the particle size as m, and a, b, c, and e are the powers of the parameters, respectively, E a constant containing activation energy and T the temperature as K.

Keywords: radiation, diosorption, thallium, empirical modelling

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Authors: Diteboho Xaba, Kolentino Mpeta, Tlotliso Qejoe

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This paper assesses the in-sample forecasting of the South African exchange rates comparing a linear ARIMA model and a SETAR model. The study uses a monthly adjusted data of South African exchange rates with 420 observations. Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Schwarz information criteria (SIC) are used for model selection. Mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are error metrics used to evaluate forecast capability of the models. The Diebold –Mariano (DM) test is employed in the study to check forecast accuracy in order to distinguish the forecasting performance between the two models (ARIMA and SETAR). The results indicate that both models perform well when modelling and forecasting the exchange rates, but SETAR seemed to outperform ARIMA.

Keywords: ARIMA, error metrices, model selection, SETAR

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Authors: Thomas Chinwe Urama, Patrick Oseloka Ezepue, Peters Chimezie Nnanwa

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This paper investigates the universal financial dynamics in two dominant stock markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, through an in-depth analysis of the cross-correlation matrix of price returns in Nigerian Stock Market (NSM) and Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), for the period 2009 to 2013. The strength of correlations between stocks is known to be higher in JSE than that of the NSM. Particularly important for modelling Nigerian derivatives in the future, the interactions of other stocks with the oil sector are weak, whereas the banking sector has strong positive interactions with the other sectors in the stock exchange. For the JSE, it is the oil sector and beverages that have greater sectorial correlations, instead of the banks which have the weaker correlation with other sectors in the stock exchange.

Keywords: random matrix theory, cross-correlations, emerging markets, option pricing, eigenvalues eigenvectors, inverse participation ratios and implied volatility

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Authors: Benjamin Castillo, Luis Pastenes, Fernando Cordova

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The pathogen growth in animal source foods is a common problem in the food industry, causing monetary losses due to the spoiling of products or food intoxication outbreaks in the community. In this sense, the quality of the product is reflected by the population of deteriorating agents present in it, which are mainly bacteria. The factors which are likely associated with freshness in animal source foods are temperature and processing, storage, and transport times. However, the level of deterioration of products depends, in turn, on the characteristics of the bacterial population, causing the decomposition or spoiling, such as pH level and toxins. Knowing the growth dynamics of the agents that are involved in product contamination allows the monitoring for more efficient processing. This means better quality and reasonable costs, along with a better estimation of necessary time and temperature intervals for transport and storage in order to preserve product quality. The objective of this project is to design a secondary model that allows measuring the impact on temperature bacterial growth and the competition for pH adequacy and release of bacteriocins in order to describe such phenomenon and, thus, estimate food product half-life with the least possible risk of deterioration or spoiling. In order to achieve this objective, the authors propose an analysis of a three-dimensional ordinary differential which includes; logistic bacterial growth extended by the inhibitory action of bacteriocins including the effect of the medium pH; change in the medium pH levels through an adaptation of the Luedeking-Piret kinetic model; Bacteriocin concentration modeled similarly to pH levels. These three dimensions are being influenced by the temperature at all times. Then, this differential system is expanded, taking into consideration the variable temperature and the concentration of pulsed bacteriocins, which represent characteristics inherent of the modeling, such as transport and storage, as well as the incorporation of substances that inhibit bacterial growth. The main results lead to the fact that temperature changes in an early stage of transport increased the bacterial population significantly more than if it had increased during the final stage. On the other hand, the incorporation of bacteriocins, as in other investigations, proved to be efficient in the short and medium-term since, although the population of bacteria decreased, once the bacteriocins were depleted or degraded over time, the bacteria eventually returned to their regular growth rate. The efficacy of the bacteriocins at low temperatures decreased slightly, which equates with the fact that their natural degradation rate also decreased. In summary, the implementation of the mathematical model allowed the simulation of a set of possible bacteria present in animal based products, along with their properties, in various transport and storage situations, which led us to state that for inhibiting bacterial growth, the optimum is complementary low constant temperatures and the initial use of bacteriocins.

Keywords: bacterial growth, bacteriocins, mathematical modelling, temperature

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Authors: James Moir

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The mainstay of Big Data is prediction in that it allows practitioners, researchers, and policy analysts to predict trends based upon the analysis of large and varied sources of data. These can range from changing social and political opinions, patterns in crimes, and consumer behaviour. Big Data has therefore shifted the criterion of success in science from causal explanations to predictive modelling and simulation. The 19th-century science sought to capture phenomena and seek to show the appearance of it through causal mechanisms while 20th-century science attempted to save the appearance and relinquish causal explanations. Now 21st-century science in the form of Big Data is concerned with the prediction of appearances and nothing more. However, this pulls social science back in the direction of a more rule- or law-governed reality model of science and away from a consideration of the internal nature of rules in relation to various practices. In effect Big Data offers us no more than a world of surface appearance and in doing so it makes disappear any context-specific conceptual sensitivity.

Keywords: big data, appearance, disappearance, surface, epistemology

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Authors: A. Nusrath Unissa, Sameer Hassan, Luke Elizabeth Hanna

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Altered drug binding may be an important factor in isoniazid (INH) resistance, rather than major changes in the enzyme’s activity as a catalase or peroxidase (KatG). The identification of structural or functional defects in the mutant KatGs responsible for INH resistance remains as an area to be explored. In this connection, the differences in the binding affinity between wild-type (WT) and mutants of KatG were investigated, through the generation of three mutants of KatG, Ser315Thr [S315T], Ser315Asn [S315N], Ser315Arg [S315R] and a WT [S315]) with the help of software-MODELLER. The mutants were docked with INH using the software-GOLD. The affinity is lower for WT than mutant, suggesting the tight binding of INH with the mutant protein compared to WT type. These models provide the in silico evidence for the binding interaction of KatG with INH and implicate the basis for rationalization of INH resistance in naturally occurring KatG mutant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

Keywords: Mycobacterium tuberculosis, KatG, INH resistance, mutants, modelling, docking

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Authors: Elvira Mustikawati P.H., Iis Dewi Ratih, Dita Amelia

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Bojonegoro has proclaimed a policy of zero malnutrition. Therefore, as an effort to solve the cases of malnutrition children in Bojonegoro, this study used the approach geographically Mixed Weighted Regression (MGWR) to determine the factors that influence the percentage of malnourished children under five in which factors can be divided into locally influential factor in each district and global factors that influence throughout the district. Based on the test of goodness of fit models, R2 and AIC values in GWR models are better than MGWR models. R2 and AIC values in MGWR models are 84.37% and 14.28, while the GWR models respectively are 91.04% and -62.04. Based on the analysis with GWR models, District Sekar, Bubulan, Gondang, and Dander is a district with three predictor variables (percentage of vitamin A, the percentage of births assisted health personnel, and the percentage of clean water) that significantly influence the percentage of malnourished children under five.

Keywords: GWR, MGWR, R2, AIC

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Authors: Samir Zeghlache, Abderrahmen Bouguerra, Kamel Kara, Djamel Saigaa

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The control of the trirotor helicopter includes nonlinearities, uncertainties and external perturbations that should be considered in the design of control laws. This paper presents a control strategy for an underactuated six degrees of freedom (6 DOF) trirotor helicopter, based on the coupling of the fuzzy logic control and sliding mode control (SMC). The main purpose of this work is to eliminate the chattering phenomenon. To achieve our purpose we have used a fuzzy logic control to generate the hitting control signal, also the non linear observer is then synthesized in order to estimate the unmeasured states. Finally simulation results are included to indicate the trirotor UAV with the proposed controller can greatly alleviate the chattering effect and remain robust to the external disturbances.

Keywords: fuzzy sliding mode control, trirotor helicopter, dynamic modelling, underactuated systems

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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Earthquakes pose significant risks to human life and infrastructure, highlighting the importance of effective earthquake mitigation strategies. Traditional earthquake modelling and mitigation efforts have largely focused on the primary fault segments and their slip behaviour. However, earthquakes can exhibit complex rupture dynamics, including out-of-sequence thrust (OOST) events, which occur on secondary or subsidiary faults. This abstract examines the impact of OOST dynamics on earthquake mitigation strategies and their implications for hazard assessment and disaster planning. OOST events challenge conventional seismic hazard assessments by introducing additional fault segments and potential rupture scenarios that were previously unrecognized or underestimated. Consequently, these events may increase the overall seismic hazard in affected regions. The study reviews recent case studies and research findings that illustrate the occurrence and characteristics of OOST events. It explores the factors contributing to OOST dynamics, such as stress interactions between fault segments, fault geometry, and mechanical properties of fault materials. Moreover, it investigates the potential triggers and precursory signals associated with OOST events to enhance early warning systems and emergency response preparedness. The abstract also highlights the significance of incorporating OOST dynamics into seismic hazard assessment methodologies. It discusses the challenges associated with accurately modelling OOST events, including the need for improved understanding of fault interactions, stress transfer mechanisms, and rupture propagation patterns. Additionally, the abstract explores the potential for advanced geophysical techniques, such as high-resolution imaging and seismic monitoring networks, to detect and characterize OOST events. Furthermore, the abstract emphasizes the practical implications of OOST dynamics for earthquake mitigation strategies and urban planning. It addresses the need for revising building codes, land-use regulations, and infrastructure designs to account for the increased seismic hazard associated with OOST events. It also underscores the importance of public awareness campaigns to educate communities about the potential risks and safety measures specific to OOST-induced earthquakes. This sheds light on the impact of out-of-sequence thrust dynamics in earthquake mitigation. By recognizing and understanding OOST events, researchers, engineers, and policymakers can improve hazard assessment methodologies, enhance early warning systems, and implement effective mitigation measures. By integrating knowledge of OOST dynamics into urban planning and infrastructure development, societies can strive for greater resilience in the face of earthquakes, ultimately minimizing the potential for loss of life and infrastructure damage.

Keywords: earthquake mitigation, out-of-sequence thrust, seismic, satellite imagery

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Authors: A. Boateng, La Gil-Alana, M. Lesaoana; Hj. Siweya, A. Belete

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This study examines long memory or long-range dependence in the CPI inflation rates of Ghana and South Africa using Whittle methods and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Standard I(0)/I(1) methods such as Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Philips-Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) tests were also employed. Our findings indicate that long memory exists in the CPI inflation rates of both countries. After processing fractional differencing and determining the short memory components, the models were specified as ARFIMA (4,0.35,2) and ARFIMA (3,0.49,3) respectively for Ghana and South Africa. Consequently, the CPI inflation rates of both countries are fractionally integrated and mean reverting. The implication of this result will assist in policy formulation and identification of inflationary pressures in an economy.

Keywords: Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rates, Whittle method, long memory, ARFIMA model

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Authors: Xinyi Gao, Xiaoyun Feng, Ruijie Liu, Yumin Xia, Min Shao, Xinqing Wang

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This paper outlines the travel challenges, the absence of society, and studies around disabled women and chooses the Chongqing area as a case study to explore how terrain characteristics and city construction influence our subject's travel choice. It also highlights future transport options and the necessity of addressing the difficult travel position of women with disabilities. This study focuses on the travel demands of women with disabilities, illustrating what their ideal method of travel would be. An analysis of related smart cities like Hong Kong illustrates the aspects to consider in the reconstruction of Chongqing. Finally, relying on current smart city modelling approaches, several design ideas for assistive tools are suggested for the safety of women with disabilities during travel.

Keywords: future smart city, disabled women, Chongqing, inclusive design, human-computer interaction

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Authors: Nasser Mohamed Ramli, Mohamad Syafiq Mohamad

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Many types of controllers were applied on the continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) unit to control the temperature. In this research paper, Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) controller are compared with Fuzzy Logic controller for temperature control of CSTR. The control system for temperature non-isothermal of a CSTR will produce a stable response curve to its set point temperature. A mathematical model of a CSTR using the most general operating condition was developed through a set of differential equations into S-function using MATLAB. The reactor model and S-function are developed using m.file. After developing the S-function of CSTR model, User-Defined functions are used to link to SIMULINK file. Results that are obtained from simulation and temperature control were better when using Fuzzy logic control compared to PID control.

Keywords: CSTR, temperature, PID, fuzzy logic

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Authors: Gennady M. Kulikov, Svetlana V. Plotnikova

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This paper focuses on implementation of the sampling surfaces (SaS) method for the three-dimensional (3D) stress analysis of functionally graded (FG) laminated elastic and piezoelectric shells. The SaS formulation is based on choosing inside the nth layer In not equally spaced SaS parallel to the middle surface of the shell in order to introduce the electric potentials and displacements of these surfaces as basic shell variables. Such choice of unknowns permits the presentation of the proposed FG piezoelectric shell formulation in a very compact form. The SaS are located inside each layer at Chebyshev polynomial nodes that improves the convergence of the SaS method significantly. As a result, the SaS formulation can be applied efficiently to 3D solutions for FG piezoelectric laminated shells, which asymptotically approach the exact solutions of piezoelectricity as the number of SaS In goes to infinity.

Keywords: electroelasticity, functionally graded material, laminated piezoelectric shell, sampling surfaces method

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Authors: Jamilatuzzahro, Rezzy Eko Caraka

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The yield curve is the plot of the yield to maturity of zero-coupon bonds against maturity. In practice, the yield curve is not observed but must be extracted from observed bond prices for a set of (usually) incomplete maturities. There exist many methodologies and theory to analyze of yield curve. We use two methods (the Nelson-Siegel Method, the Svensson Method, and the SVR method) in order to construct and compare our zero-coupon yield curves. The objectives of this research were: (i) to study the adequacy of NSS model and SVR to Indonesian government bonds data, (ii) to choose the best optimization or estimation method for NSS model and SVR. To obtain that objective, this research was done by the following steps: data preparation, cleaning or filtering data, modeling, and model evaluation.

Keywords: support vector regression, Nelson-Siegel-Svensson, yield curve, Indonesian government

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Authors: Johnson Joseph Kwabina Arhinful, Owusu-Ansah Emmanuel Degraft Johnson, Okyere Gabrial Asare, Adebanji Atinuke Olusola

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This paper proposes a model to describe the blood types distribution of new Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases using the Bayesian Poisson - Hidden Markov Model (BP-HMM). With the help of the Gibbs sampler algorithm, using OpenBugs, the study first identifies the number of hidden states fitting European (EU) and African (AF) data sets of COVID-19 cases by blood type frequency. The study then compares the state-dependent mean of infection within and across the two geographical areas. The study findings show that the number of hidden states and infection rates within and across the two geographical areas differ according to blood type.

Keywords: BP-HMM, COVID-19, blood types, GIBBS sampler

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Authors: Maria V. Mishatkina

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The modelling of dialogical environment is an essential feature of modern education. The dialogue of cultures is a foundation and an important prerequisite for a formation of a human’s main moral qualities such as an ability to understand another person, which is manifested in such values as tolerance, respect, mutual assistance and mercy. A formation of a modern expert occurs in an educational environment that is significantly different from what we had several years ago. Nowadays university education has qualitatively new characteristics. They may be observed in Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), a top Russian higher education institution which unites representatives of more than 150 countries. The content of its educational strategies is not an adapted cultural experience but material between science and innovation. Besides, RUDN University’s profiles and specialization are not equal to the professional structures. People study not a profession in a strict sense but a basic scientific foundation of an activity in different socio-cultural areas (science, business and education). RUDN University also provides a considerable unit of professional education components. They are foreign languages skills, economic, political, ethnic, communication and computer culture, theory of information and basic management skills. Moreover, there is a rich social life (festive multicultural events, theme parties, journeys) and prospects concerning the inclusive approach to education (for example, a special course ‘Social Pedagogy: Issues of Tolerance’). In our research, we use such methods as analysis of modern and contemporary scientific literature, opinion poll (involving students, teachers and research workers) and comparative data analysis. We came to the conclusion that knowledge transfer of RUDN student in the activity happens through making goals, problems, issues, tasks and situations which simulate future innovative ambiguous environment that potentially prepares him/her to dialogical way of life. However, all these factors may not take effect if there is no ‘personal inspiration’ of students by communicative and dialogic values, their participation in a system of meanings and tools of learning activity that is represented by cooperation within the framework of scientific and pedagogical schools dialogue. We also found out that dominating strategies of ensuring the quality of education are those that put students in the position of the subject of their own education. Today these strategies and approaches should involve such approaches and methods as task, contextual, modelling, specialized, game-imitating and dialogical approaches, the method of practical situations, etc. Therefore, University in the modern sense is not only an educational institution, but also a generator of innovation, cooperation among nations and cultural progress. RUDN University has been performing exactly this mission for many decades.

Keywords: dialogical developing situation, dialogue of cultures, readiness for dialogue, university graduate

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Authors: Boudemagh Naime

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Automatic radar detection requires some methods of adapting to variations in the background clutter in order to control their false alarm rate. The problem becomes more complicated in non-Gaussian environment. In fact, the conventional approach in real time applications requires a complex statistical modeling and much computational operations. To overcome these constraints, we propose another approach based on artificial neural network (ANN-CMLD-CFAR) using a Back Propagation (BP) training algorithm. The considered environment follows a log-normal distribution in the presence of multiple Rayleigh-targets. To evaluate the performances of the considered detector, several situations, such as scale parameter and the number of interferes targets, have been investigated. The simulation results show that the ANN-CMLD-CFAR processor outperforms the conventional statistical one.

Keywords: radat detection, ANN-CMLD-CFAR, log-normal clutter, statistical modelling

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Authors: Karen K. Perez-Ramirez, Genevieve Dupont, Virginia Gonzalez-Velez

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Pancreatic alpha-cells participate on glucose regulation together with beta cells. They release glucagon hormone when glucose level is low to stimulate gluconeogenesis from the liver. As other excitable cells, alpha cells generate Ca2+ and metabolic oscillations when they are stimulated. It is known that the glucose level can trigger or silence this activity although it is not clear how this occurs in normal and diabetic people. In this work, we propose an electric-metabolic mathematical model implemented in Matlab to study the effect of different glucose levels on the electrical response and Ca2+ oscillations of an alpha cell. Our results show that Ca2+ oscillations appear in opposite phase with metabolic oscillations in a window of glucose values. The model also predicts a direct relationship between the level of glucose and the intracellular adenine nucleotides showing a self-regulating pathway for the alpha cell.

Keywords: Ca2+ oscillations, mathematical model, metabolic oscillations, pancreatic alpha cell

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Authors: Fida Isam Abdulhafiz

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Traditional vernacular architecture in the United Arab Emirates constituted namely of adobe houses with a limited number of openings in their facades. The thick mud and rubble walls and wooden window screens protected its inhabitants from the harsh desert climate and provided them with privacy and fulfilled their comfort zone needs to an extent. However, with the rise of the immediate post petroleum era reinforced concrete villas with glass and steel technology has replaced traditional vernacular dwellings. And more load was put on the mechanical cooling systems to ensure the satisfaction of today’s more demanding doweling inhabitants. However, In the early 21at century professionals started to pay more attention to the carbon footprint caused by the built constructions. In addition, many studies and innovative approaches are now dedicated to lower the impact of the existing operating buildings on their surrounding environments. The UAE government agencies started to regulate that aim to revive sustainable and environmental design through Local and international building codes and urban design policies such as Estidama and LEED. The focus in this paper is on the reduction of the emissions resulting from the use of energy sources in the cooling and heating systems, and that would be through using innovative screen designs and façade solutions to provide a green footprint and aesthetic architectural icons. Screens are one of the popular innovative techniques that can be added in the design process or used in existing building as a renovation techniques to develop a passive green buildings. Preparing future architects to understand the importance of environmental design was attempted through physical modelling of window screens as an educational means to combine theory with a hands on teaching approach. Designing screens proved to be a popular technique that helped them understand the importance of sustainable design and passive cooling. After creating models of prototype screens, several tests were conducted to calculate the amount of Sun, light and wind that goes through the screens affecting the heat load and light entering the building. Theory further explored concepts of green buildings and material that produce low carbon emissions. This paper highlights the importance of hands on experience for student architects and how physical modelling helped rise eco awareness in Design studio. The paper will study different types of façade screens and shading devices developed by Architecture students and explains the production of diverse patterns for traditional screens by student architects based on sustainable design concept that works properly with the climate requirements in the Middle East region.

Keywords: building’s screens modeling, façade design, sustainable architecture, sustainable dwellings, sustainable education

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Authors: Tomáš Ludík, Jiří Barta, Josef Navrátil

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Natural or human made disasters have a significant negative impact on the environment. At the same time there is an extensive effort to support management and decision making in emergency situations by information technologies. Therefore the purpose of the paper is to propose a design patterns applicable in emergency management, enabling better analysis and design of emergency management processes and therefore easier development and deployment of information systems in the field of emergency management. It will be achieved by detailed analysis of existing emergency management legislation, contingency plans, and information systems. The result is a set of design patterns focused at emergency management processes that enable easier design of emergency plans or development of new information system. These results will have a major impact on the development of new information systems as well as to more effective and faster solving of emergencies.

Keywords: analysis and design, Business Process Modelling Notation, contingency plans, design patterns, emergency management

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Authors: Bryan Low

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In the coming decades, the global maritime industry will face a most formidable environmental challenge -achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. To meet this target, the Maritime Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) has worked to establish green shipping and digital corridors with ports of several other countries around the world where ships will use low-carbon alternative fuels such as ammonia for power generation. While this paradigm shift to the bunkering of greener fuels is encouraging, fuels like ammonia will also introduce a new and unique type of environmental risk in the unlikely scenario of a spill. While numerous modelling studies have been conducted for oil spills and their associated environmental impact on coastal and marine ecosystems, ammonia spills are comparatively less well understood. For example, there is a knowledge gap regarding how the complex hydrodynamic conditions of the Singapore Straits may influence the dispersion of a hypothetical ammonia plume, which has different physical and chemical properties compared to an oil slick. Chemically, ammonia can be absorbed by phytoplankton, thus altering the balance of the marine nitrogen cycle. Biologically, ammonia generally serves the role of a nutrient in coastal ecosystems at lower concentrations. However, at higher concentrations, it has been found to be toxic to many local species. It may also have the potential to trigger eutrophication and harmful algal blooms (HABs) in coastal waters, depending on local hydrodynamic conditions. Thus, the key objective of this research paper is to support the development of a model-based forecasting system that can predict ammonia plume behaviour in coastal waters, given prevailing hydrodynamic conditions and their environmental impact. This will be essential as ammonia bunkering becomes more commonplace in Singapore’s ports and around the world. Specifically, this system must be able to assess the HAB-triggering potential of an ammonia plume, as well as its lethal and sub-lethal toxic effects on local species. This will allow the relevant authorities to better plan risk mitigation measures or choose a time window with the ideal hydrodynamic conditions to conduct ammonia bunkering operations with minimal risk. In this paper, we present the first part of such a forecasting system: a jointly coupled hydrodynamic-water quality model that can capture how advection-diffusion processes driven by ocean currents influence plume behaviour and how the plume interacts with the marine nitrogen cycle. The model is then applied to various ammonia spill scenarios where the results are discussed in the context of current ammonia toxicity guidelines, impact on local ecosystems, and mitigation measures for future bunkering operations conducted in the Singapore Straits.

Keywords: ammonia bunkering, forecasting, harmful algal blooms, hydrodynamics, marine nitrogen cycle, oceanography, water quality modeling

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Authors: Nader Al-Rashidi, David Greenhalgh

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Mathematical modelling techniques are now being used by health organizations worldwide to help understand the likely impact that intervention strategies treatment options and combinations of these have on the prevalence and incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the people who inject drugs (PWID) population. In this poster, we develop a deterministic, compartmental mathematical model to approximate the spread of the HCV in a PWID population that has been divided into two groups by time since onset of injection. The model assumes that after injection needles adopt the most infectious state of their previous state or that of the PWID who last injected with them. Using analytical techniques, we find that the model behaviour is determined by the basic reproductive number R₀, where R₀ = 1 is a critical threshold separating two different outcomes. The disease-free equilibrium is globally stable if R₀ ≤ 1 and unstable if R₀ > 1. Additionally, we make some simulations where have confirmed that the model tends to this endemic equilibrium value with realistic parameter values giving an HCV prevalence.

Keywords: hepatitis C, people who inject drugs, HCV, PWID

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Authors: A. S. Zgalei, B. T. Al-Mabrouk

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With a particularly significant growth rate observed in the Libyan commercial and residential buildings coupled with a growth in energy demand, solar desiccant evaporative cooling offers energy savings and promises a good sharing for sustainable buildings where the availability of solar radiation matches with the cooling load demand. The paper presents a short introduction for the desiccant systems. A mathematical model of a selected system has been developed and a simulation has been performed in order to investigate the system performance at different working conditions and an optimum design of the system structure is established. The results showed a technical feasibility of the system working under the Libyan climatic conditions with a reasonable COP at temperatures that can be obtained through the solar reactivation system. Discussion of the results and the recommendations for future work are proposed.

Keywords: computer program, solar desiccant wheel cooling, system modelling, simulation, technical feasibility

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Authors: Salma El Aimani

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Freshwater is an essential material in our daily life; its availability is on the decline due to population growth and climate change. To meet the demand for fresh water in regions where reserves are insufficient, several countries have adopted seawater desalination. Several physical methods allow the production of fresh water from seawater; among these methods are distillation and reverse osmosis, and there is great potential to use renewable energy sources such as solar Photovoltaics. The work presented in this paper consists of three parts. First, the generalities of desalination technologies will be presented. The second part is devoted to the presentation of different water desalination systems combined with renewable energy and their benefits and drawbacks on different sides. In the third part, we will perform a modeling of a PV water desalination system under Matlab Simulink software. Then, according to the obtained simulation results, we conclude this paper with the prospects of the presented work.

Keywords: reverse-osmosis, desalination, modelling, ‎irradiation, Matlab

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Authors: Sanja O. Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Z. Kovačević, Lidija R. Jevrić, Stela Jokić

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The subject of this paper is to correlate antibacterial behavior of benzimidazole derivatives with their molecular characteristics using chemometric QSAR (Quantitative Structure–Activity Relationships) approach. QSAR analysis has been carried out on the inhibitory activity of benzimidazole derivatives against Staphylococcus aureus. The data were processed by linear least squares (LLS) and artificial neural network (ANN) procedures. The LLS mathematical models have been developed as a calibration models for prediction of the inhibitory activity. The quality of the models was validated by leave one out (LOO) technique and by using external data set. High agreement between experimental and predicted inhibitory acivities indicated the good quality of the derived models. These results are part of the CMST COST Action No. CM1306 "Understanding Movement and Mechanism in Molecular Machines".

Keywords: Antibacterial, benzimidazoles, chemometric, QSAR.

Procedia PDF Downloads 296

Authors: A. Bouchakour, L. Zaghba, M. Brahami, A. Borni

Abstract:

The work presented in this paper present the design and the simulation of a centrifugal pump coupled to a photovoltaic (PV) generator via a MPPT controller. The PV system operating is just done in sunny period by using water storage instead of electric energy storage. The process concerns the modelling, identification and simulation of a photovoltaic pumping system, the centrifugal pump is driven by an asynchronous three-phase voltage inverter sine triangle PWM motor through. Two configurations were simulated. For the first, it is about the alimentation of the motor pump group from electrical power supply. For the second, the pump unit is connected directly to the photovoltaic panels by integration of a MPPT control. A code of simulation of the solar pumping system was initiated under the Matlab-Simulink environment. Very convivial and flexible graphic interfaces allow an easy use of the code and knowledge of the effects of change of the sunning and temperature on the pumping system.

Keywords: photovoltaic generator, chopper, electrical motor, centrifugal pump

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Authors: Zhao Pengcheng, Yin Siyuan

Abstract:

Fintech is the new hot topic of the 21st century, a discipline that combines financial theory with computer modelling. It can provide both digital analysis methods for investment banks and investment decisions for users. Given the variety of services available, it is necessary to provide a superior method of requirements elicitation to ensure that users' needs are addressed in the software development process. The accuracy of traditional software requirements elicitation methods is not sufficient, so this study attempts to use a multi-perspective based requirements heuristic framework. Methods such as interview and questionnaire combination, card sorting, and model driven are proposed. The collection results from PCA show that the new methods can better help with requirements elicitation. However, the method has some limitations and, there are some efficiency issues. However, the research in this paper provides a good theoretical extension that can provide researchers with some new research methods and perspectives viewpoints.

Keywords: requirement elicitation, FinTech, mobile application, survey, interview, model-driven

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Li̇zan Mahmood Khorsheed Zangana

Abstract:

Experimental and numerical investigations have been carried out to study the mechanism of separation energy and flow phenomena in the counter-flow vortex tube. This manuscript presents a complete comparison between the experimental investigation and CFD analysis. The experimental model tested under different inlet pressures. Three-dimensional numerical modelling using the k-ε model. The results show any increase in both cold mass fraction and inlet pressure caused to increase ΔTc, and the maximum ΔTc value occurs at P = 6 bar. The coefficient of performance (COP) of two important factors in the vortex tube have been evaluated, which ranged from 0.25 to 0.74. The maximum axial velocity is 93, where it occurs at the tube axis close the inlet exit (Z/L=0.2). The results showed a good agreement for experimental and numerical analysis.

Keywords: counter flow, vortex tube, computational fluid dynamics analysis, energy separation, experimental study

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Authors: Fabrizio Ascione, Martina Borrelli, Rosa Francesca De Masi, Silvia Ruggiero, Giuseppe Peter Vanoli

Abstract:

The Directive 2010/31/EC 'Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council of 19 may 2010 on the energy performance of buildings' moved the targets of the previous version toward more ambitious targets, for instance by establishing that, by 31 December 2020, all new buildings should demand nearly zero-energy. Moreover, the demonstrative role of public buildings is strongly affirmed so that also the target nearly zero-energy buildings is anticipated, in January 2019. On the other hand, given the very low turn-over rate of buildings (in Europe, it ranges between 1-3%/yearly), each policy that does not consider the renovation of the existing building stock cannot be effective in the short and medium periods. According to this proposal, the study provides a novel, holistic approach to design the refurbishment of educational buildings in colder cities of Mediterranean regions enabling stakeholders to understand the uncertainty to use numerical modelling and the real environmental and economic impacts of adopting some energy efficiency technologies. The case study is a university building of Molise region in the centre of Italy. The proposed approach is based on the application of the cost-optimal methodology as it is shown in the Delegate Regulation 244/2012 and Guidelines of the European Commission, for evaluating the cost-optimal level of energy performance with a macroeconomic approach. This means that the refurbishment scenario should correspond to the configuration that leads to lowest global cost during the estimated economic life-cycle, taking into account not only the investment cost but also the operational costs, linked to energy consumption and polluting emissions. The definition of the reference building has been supported by various in-situ surveys, investigations, evaluations of the indoor comfort. Data collection can be divided into five categories: 1) geometrical features; 2) building envelope audit; 3) technical system and equipment characterization; 4) building use and thermal zones definition; 5) energy building data. For each category, the required measures have been indicated with some suggestions for the identifications of spatial distribution and timing of the measurements. With reference to the case study, the collected data, together with a comparison with energy bills, allowed a proper calibration of a numerical model suitable for the hourly energy simulation by means of EnergyPlus. Around 30 measures/packages of energy, efficiency measure has been taken into account both on the envelope than regarding plant systems. Starting from results, two-point will be examined exhaustively: (i) the importance to use validated models to simulate the present performance of building under investigation; (ii) the environmental benefits and the economic implications of a deep energy refurbishment of the educational building in cold climates.

Keywords: energy simulation, modelling calibration, cost-optimal retrofit, university building

Procedia PDF Downloads 161