Search results for: community-based flood risk management

Authors: Olga Biedova, Victoria Steblovskaya, Kai Wallbaum

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In the current capital market environment, investors constantly face the challenge of finding a successful and stable investment mechanism. Highly volatile equity markets and extremely low bond returns bring about the demand for sophisticated yet reliable risk management strategies. Investors are looking for risk management solutions to efficiently protect their investments. This study compares a classic Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) strategy to a Volatility Target portfolio insurance (VTPI). VTPI is an extension of the well-known Option Based Portfolio Insurance (OBPI) to the case where an embedded option is linked not to a pure risky asset such as e.g., S&P 500, but to a Volatility Target (VolTarget) portfolio. VolTarget strategy is a recently emerged rule-based dynamic asset allocation mechanism where the portfolio’s volatility is kept under control. As a result, a typical VTPI strategy allows higher participation rates in the market due to reduced embedded option prices. In addition, controlled volatility levels eliminate the volatility spread in option pricing, one of the frequently cited reasons for OBPI strategy fall behind CPPI. The strategies are compared within the framework of the stochastic dominance theory based on numerical simulations, rather than on the restrictive assumption of the Black-Scholes type dynamics of the underlying asset. An extended comparative quantitative analysis of performances of the above investment strategies in various market scenarios and within a range of input parameter values is presented.

Keywords: CPPI, portfolio insurance, stochastic dominance, volatility target

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Authors: Kwame Amoah

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Artificial intelligence (AI) has the prospect of transforming project management, significantly improving efficiency and accuracy. By automating specific tasks with defined guidelines, AI can assist project managers in making better decisions and allocating resources efficiently, with possible risk mitigation. This study explores how AI is already impacting project management and likely future AI's impact on the field. The AI's reaction has been a divided opinion; while others picture it as a destroyer of jobs, some welcome it as an innovation advocate. Both sides agree that AI will be disruptive and revolutionize PM's functions. If current research is to go by, AI or some form will replace one-third of all learning graduate PM jobs by as early as 2030. A recent survey indicates AI spending will reach $97.9 billion by the end of 2023. Considering such a profound impact, the project management profession will also see a paradigm shift driven by AI. The study examines what the project management profession will look like in the next 5-10 years after this technological disruption. The research methods incorporate existing literature, develop trend analysis, and conduct structured interviews with project management stakeholders from North America to gauge the trend. PM professionals can harness the power of AI, ensuring a smooth transition and positive outcomes. AI adoption will maximize benefits, minimize adverse consequences, and uphold ethical standards, leading to improved project performance.

Keywords: project management, disruptive teacnologies, project management function, AL applications, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Iqbal Pramukti, Mamat Lukman, Hasniatisari Harun, Kusman Ibrahim

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Introduction: People living with HIV had a higher risk of osteoporotic fracture than the general population. The purpose of this study was to predict the 10-year risk of fracture among people living with HIV (PLWH) using FRAX™ and to identify characteristics related to the fracture risk. Methodology: This study consisted of 75 subjects. The ten-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and hip fractures was assessed using the FRAX™ algorithm. A cross-tabulation was used to identify the participant’s characteristics related to fracture risk. Results: The overall mean 10-year probability of fracture was 2.4% (1.7) for MOF and 0.4% (0.3) for hip fractures. For MOF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use showed a higher MOF score than those who were not (3.1 vs. 2.5; 4.6 vs 2.5; and 3.4 vs 2.5, respectively). For HF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use also showed a higher HF score than those who were not (0.5 vs. 0.3; 0.8 vs. 0.3; and 0.5 vs. 0.3, respectively). Conclusions: The 10-year risk of fracture was higher among PLWH with several factors, including the parent’s hip. Fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid used. Further analysis on determining factors using multivariate regression analysis with a larger sample size is required to confirm the factors associated with the high fracture risk.

Keywords: HIV, PLWH, osteoporotic fractures, hip fractures, 10-year risk of fracture, FRAX

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Authors: Jen Wang, Wei-Chia Hsu, Zih-Sin Wang, Ching-Ping Chu, Bo-Shiou Guo

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In the late 19th century, the Jinguashi ore deposit in northern Taiwan was discovered, and accompanied with flourishing mining activities. However, tons of contaminants including heavy metals, sulfur dioxide, and total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) were released to surroundings and caused environmental problems. Site T was one of copper smelter located on the coastal hill near Jinguashi ore deposit. In over ten years of operation, variety contaminants were emitted that it polluted the surrounding soil and groundwater quality. In order to exhaust fumes produced from smelting process, three stacks were built along the hill behind the factory. The sediment inside the stacks contains high concentration of heavy metals such as arsenic, lead, copper, etc. Moreover, soil around the discarded stacks suffered a serious contamination when deposition leached from the ruptures of stacks. Consequently, Site T (including the factory and its surroundings) was declared as a pollution remediation site that visiting the site and land-use activities on it are forbidden. However, the natural landscape and cultural attractions of Site T are spectacular that it attracts a lot of visitors annually. Moreover, land resources are extremely precious in Taiwan. In addition, Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (EPA) is actively promoting the contaminated land revitalization policy. Therefore, this study took Site T as case study for brownfield revitalization planning to the limits of activate and remediate the natural resources. Land-use suitability analysis and risk mapping were applied in this study to make appropriate risk management measures and redevelopment plan for the site. In land-use suitability analysis, surrounding factors into consideration such as environmentally sensitive areas, biological resources, land use, contamination, culture, and landscapes were collected to assess the development of each area; health risk mapping was introduced to show the image of risk assessments results based on the site contamination investigation. According to land-use suitability analysis, the site was divided into four zones: priority area (for high-efficiency development), secondary area (for co-development with priority area), conditional area (for reusing existing building) and limited area (for Eco-tourism and education). According to the investigation, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB), heavy metals and TPH were considered as target contaminants while oral, inhalation and dermal would be the major exposure pathways in health risk assessment. In accordance with health risk map, the highest risk was found in the southwest and eastern side. Based on the results, the development plan focused on zoning and land use. Site T was recommended be divides to public facility zone, public architectonic art zone, viewing zone, existing building preservation zone, historic building zone, and cultural landscape zone for various purpose. In addition, risk management measures including sustained remediation, extinguish exposure and administration management are applied to ensure particular places are suitable for visiting and protect the visitors’ health. The consolidated results are corroborated available by analyzing aspects of law, land acquired method, maintenance and management and public participation. Therefore, this study has a certain reference value to promote the contaminated land revitalization policy in Taiwan.

Keywords: brownfield revitalization, land-use suitability analysis, health risk map, risk management

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Authors: Frederic Jumelle, Kelvin So, Didan Deng

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A method and system for neuropsychological performance test, comprising a mobile terminal, used to interact with a cloud server which stores user information and is logged into by the user through the terminal device; the user information is directly accessed through the terminal device and is processed by artificial neural network, and the user information comprises user facial emotions information, performance test answers information and user chronometrics. This assessment is used to evaluate the cognitive performance and emotional response of the subject to a series of dichotomous questions describing various situations of daily life and challenging the users' knowledge, values, ethics, and principles. In industrial applications, the timing of this assessment will depend on the users' need to obtain a service from a provider, such as opening a bank account, getting a mortgage or an insurance policy, authenticating clearance at work, or securing online payments.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, neurofinance, neuropsychology, risk management

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Authors: Pitsanu Tongkhow, Pichet Jiraprasertwong

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This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.

Keywords: defective autoparts products, Bayesian framework, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), risk factors

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Authors: Jorge M. Uribe

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We propose a methodology for setting the price of an insurance contract targeted to manage the risk associated with weather conditions that affect variable renewable energy generation. The methodology relies on conditional quantile regressions to estimate the weather risk of a solar panel. It is illustrated using real daily radiation and weather data for three cities in Spain (Valencia, Barcelona and Madrid) from February 2/2004 to January 22/2019. We also adapt the concepts of value at risk and expected short fall from finance to this context, to provide a complete panorama of what we label as weather risk. The methodology is easy to implement and can be used by insurance companies to price a contract with the aforementioned characteristics when data about similar projects and accurate cash flow projections are lacking. Our methodology assigns a higher price to an insurance product with the stated characteristics in Madrid, compared to Valencia and Barcelona. This is consistent with Madrid showing the largest interquartile range of operational deficits and it is unrelated to the average value deficit, which illustrates the importance of our proposal.

Keywords: insurance, weather, vre, risk

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Authors: Seung Hun Lee, Sang Yeoup Lee

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Objectives: To investigate associations between degrees of obesity using correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors. Methods: BMI, waist circumference (WC), fasting insulin, fasting glucose, lipids, and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) area using computed tomographic images were measured in 113 obese female without cardiovascular disease (CVD). Correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors were analyzed in obese subgroups defined using sequential obesity indices. Results: Mean BMI and WC were 29.6 kg/m2 and 92.8 cm. BMI showed significant correlations with all five cardiometabolic risk factors until the BMI cut-off point reached 27 kg/m2, but when it exceeded 30 kg/m2, correlations no longer existed. WC was significantly correlated with all five cardiometabolic risk factors up to a value of 85 cm, but when WC exceeded 90 cm, correlations no longer existed. Conclusions: Our data suggest that moderate weight-loss goals may not be enough to ameliorate cardiometabolic markers in severely obese patients. Therefore, individualized weight-loss goals should be recommended to such patients to improve health benefits.

Keywords: correlation, cardiovascular disease, risk factors, obesity

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Authors: Hamid Goharnejad, Milad Sadeghpoor Moalem, Mahmood Zakeri Niri, Leili Sadeghi Khalegh Abadi

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While there are many benefits to using reservoir dams, their break leads to destructive effects. From the viewpoint of International Committee of Large Dams (ICOLD), dam break means the collapse of whole or some parts of a dam; thereby the dam will be unable to hold water. Therefore, studying dam break phenomenon and prediction of its behavior and effects reduces losses and damages of the mentioned phenomenon. One of the most common types of reservoir dams is embankment dam. Overtopping in embankment dams occurs because of flood discharge system inability in release inflows to reservoir. One of the most important issues among managers and engineers to evaluate the performance of the reservoir dam rim when sliding into the storage, creating waves is large and long. In this study, the effects of floods which caused the overtopping of the dam have been investigated. It was assumed that spillway is unable to release the inflow. To determine outflow hydrograph resulting from dam break, numerical model using Flow-3D software and empirical equations was used. Results of numerical models and their comparison with empirical equations show that numerical model and empirical equations can be used to study the flood resulting from dam break.

Keywords: embankment dam break, empirical equations, Taleghan dam, Flow-3D numerical model

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Authors: Pubudu K. Hitigala Kaluarachchilage, Champike Attanayake, Sasith Rajasooriya, Chris P. Tsokos

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Operating system (OS) security is a key component of computer security. Assessing and improving OSs strength to resist against vulnerabilities and attacks is a mandatory requirement given the rate of new vulnerabilities discovered and attacks occurring. Frequency and the number of different kinds of vulnerabilities found in an OS can be considered an index of its information security level. In the present study five mostly used OSs, Microsoft Windows (windows 7, windows 8 and windows 10), Apple’s Mac and Linux are assessed for their discovered vulnerabilities and the risk associated with each. Each discovered and reported vulnerability has an exploitability score assigned in CVSS score of the national vulnerability database. In this study the risk from vulnerabilities in each of the five Operating Systems is compared. Risk Indexes used are developed based on the Markov model to evaluate the risk of each vulnerability. Statistical methodology and underlying mathematical approach is described. Initially, parametric procedures are conducted and measured. There were, however, violations of some statistical assumptions observed. Therefore the need for non-parametric approaches was recognized. 6838 vulnerabilities recorded were considered in the analysis. According to the risk associated with all the vulnerabilities considered, it was found that there is a statistically significant difference among average risk levels for some operating systems, indicating that according to our method some operating systems have been more risk vulnerable than others given the assumptions and limitations. Relevant test results revealing a statistically significant difference in the Risk levels of different OSs are presented.

Keywords: cybersecurity, Markov chain, non-parametric analysis, vulnerability, operating system

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Authors: Fares Laouacheria, Said Kechida, Moncef Chabi

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The objective of the study was based on the hydrological routing modelling for the continuous monitoring of the hydrological situation in the Moudjar river catchment, especially during floods with Hydrologic Engineering Center–Hydrologic Modelling Systems (HEC-HMS). The HEC-GeoHMS was used to transform data from geographic information system (GIS) to HEC-HMS for delineating and modelling the catchment river in order to estimate the runoff volume, which is used as inputs to the hydrological routing model. Two hydrological routing models were used, namely Muskingum and Muskingum routing models, for conducting this study. In this study, a comparison between the parameters of the Muskingum and Muskingum-Cunge routing models in HEC-HMS was used for modelling flood routing in the Moudjar river catchment and determining the relationship between these parameters and the physical characteristics of the river. The results indicate that the effects of input parameters such as the weighting factor "X" and travel time "K" on the output results are more significant, where the Muskingum routing model was more sensitive to input parameters than the Muskingum-Cunge routing model. This study can contribute to understand and improve the knowledge of the mechanisms of river floods, especially in ungauged river catchments.

Keywords: HEC-HMS, hydrological modelling, Muskingum routing model, Muskingum-Cunge routing model

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Authors: Maryam Ghavam Sadri, Kimia Moiniafshari

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Objectives: Autism is a neuro-developmental disorder that has negative effects on verbal, mental and behavioral development. Studies have shown the role of a maternal dietary pattern before and during pregnancy. The relation of exerting of nutritional management programs in prevention of Autism has been approved. This review article has been made to investigate the role of nutritional management strategies before and during pregnancy in the prevention of Autism. Methods: This review study was accomplished by using the keywords related to the topic, 67 articles were found (2000-2015) and finally 20 article with criteria such as including maternal lifestyle, nutritional deficiencies and Autism prevention were selected. Results: Maternal dietary pattern and health before and during pregnancy have important roles in the incidence of Autism. Studies have suggested that high dietary fat intake and obesity can increase the risk of Autism in offspring. Maternal metabolic condition specially gestational diabetes (GDM) (p-value < 0.04) and folate deficiency (p-value = 0.04) is associated with risk of Autism. Studies have shown that folate intake in mothers with autistic children is less than mothers who have typically developing children (TYP) (p-value<0.01). As folate is an essential micronutrient for fetus mental development, consumption of average 600 mcg/day especially in P1 phase of pregnancy results in significant reduction in incidence of Autism (OR:1.53, 95%CI=0.42-0.92, p-value = 0.02). furthermore, essential fatty acid deficiency especially omega-3 fatty acid increases the rate of Autism and consumption of supplements and food sources of omega-3 can decrease the risk of Autism up to 34% (RR=1.53, 95%CI=1-2.32). Conclusion: regards to nutritional deficiency and maternal metabolic condition before and during pregnancy in prevalence of Autism, carrying out the appropriate nutritional strategies such as well-timed folate supplementation before pregnancy and healthy lifestyle adherence for prevention of metabolic syndrome (GDM) seems to help Autism prevention.

Keywords: autism, autism prevention, dietary inadequacy, maternal lifestyle

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Authors: Marc S. Paolella, Pawel Polak

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The paper proposes a framework for large-scale portfolio optimization which accounts for all the major stylized facts of multivariate financial returns, including volatility clustering, dynamics in the dependency structure, asymmetry, heavy tails, and non-ellipticity. It introduces a so-called risk fear portfolio strategy which combines portfolio optimization with active risk monitoring. The former selects optimal portfolio weights. The latter, independently, initiates market exit in case of excessive risks. The strategy agrees with the stylized fact of stock market major sell-offs during the initial stage of market downturns. The advantages of the new framework are illustrated with an extensive empirical study. It leads to superior multivariate density and Value-at-Risk forecasting, and better portfolio performance. The proposed risk fear portfolio strategy outperforms various competing types of optimal portfolios, even in the presence of conservative transaction costs and frequent rebalancing. The risk monitoring of the optimal portfolio can serve as an early warning system against large market risks. In particular, the new strategy avoids all the losses during the 2008 financial crisis, and it profits from the subsequent market recovery.

Keywords: comfort, financial crises, portfolio optimization, risk monitoring

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Authors: Wlodzimierz Ogryczak, Michal Przyluski, Tomasz Sliwinski

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In problems of portfolio selection, the reward-risk ratio criterion is optimized to search for a risky portfolio with the maximum increase of the mean return in proportion to the risk measure increase when compared to the risk-free investments. In the classical model, following Markowitz, the risk is measured by the variance thus representing the Sharpe ratio optimization and leading to the quadratic optimization problems. Several Linear Programming (LP) computable risk measures have been introduced and applied in portfolio optimization. In particular, the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) measure has been widely recognized. The reward-risk ratio optimization with the MAD measure can be transformed into the LP formulation with the number of constraints proportional to the number of scenarios and the number of variables proportional to the total of the number of scenarios and the number of instruments. This may lead to the LP models with huge number of variables and constraints in the case of real-life financial decisions based on several thousands scenarios, thus decreasing their computational efficiency and making them hardly solvable by general LP tools. We show that the computational efficiency can be then dramatically improved by an alternative model based on the inverse risk-reward ratio minimization and by taking advantages of the LP duality. In the introduced LP model the number of structural constraints is proportional to the number of instruments thus not affecting seriously the simplex method efficiency by the number of scenarios and therefore guaranteeing easy solvability. Moreover, we show that under natural restriction on the target value the MAD risk-reward ratio optimization is consistent with the second order stochastic dominance rules.

Keywords: portfolio optimization, reward-risk ratio, mean absolute deviation, linear programming

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Authors: Lungile Maliba, O. I. Nkwonta, E Onyari

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Water resources development and management are regarded as crucial for poverty reduction in many developing countries and sustainable economic growth such as South Africa. The contribution of large hydraulic infrastructure and management of it, particularly reservoirs, to development remains controversial. This controversy stems from the fact that from a historical point of view construction of reservoirs has brought fewer benefits than envisaged and has resulted in significant environmental and social costs. A further complexity in reservoir management is the variety of stakeholders involved, all with different objectives, including domestic and industrial water use, flood control, irrigation and hydropower generation. The objective was to evaluate technical adaptation options for kleinfontein Dam’s current operating rule curves. To achieve this objective, the current operating rules curves being used in the sub-basin were analysed. An objective methodology was implemented in other to get the operating rules with regards to the target storage curves. These were derived using the Water Resources Yield/Planning Model (WRY/PM), with the aim of maximising of releases to demand zones. The result showed that the system is over allocated and in addition the demands exceed the long-term yield that is available for the system. It was concluded that the current operating rules in the system do not produce the optimum operation such as target storage curves to avoid supply failures in the system.

Keywords: infrastructure, Kleinfontein dam, operating rule curve, water resources yield and planning model

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Authors: Babak Mohajeri, Sen Bao, Timo Nyberg

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Customer experience is increasingly the differentiator between successful companies and those who struggle. Currently, customer experiences become more dynamic; and they advance with each interaction between the company and a customer. Every customer conversation and any effort to evolve these conversations would be beneficial and should ultimately result in a positive customer experience. The aim of this paper is to analyze the evolving customer experience management landscape and the relevant challenges and opportunities. A case study on the “paper machine” companies is chosen. Hence, this paper analyzes the challenges and opportunities in customer experience management of paper machine companies for the case of “road to steel”. Road to steel shows the journey of steel from raw material to end product (i.e. paper machine in this paper). ALPHA (Steel company) and BETA (paper machine company), are chosen and their efforts to evolve the customer experiences are investigated. Semi-structured interviews are conducted with experts in those companies to identify the challenges and opportunities of the evolving customer experience management from their point of view. The findings of this paper contribute to the theory and business practices in the realm of the evolving customer experience management landscape.

Keywords: Customer Experience Management, Paper Machine , Value Chain Management, Risk Analysis

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Authors: Jeffrey Tzu-Hao Tsai, Yi-Shan Wong

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This article proposes a cohort-age-period (CAP) model to characterize multi-population mortality processes using cohort, age, and period variables. Distinct from the factor-based Lee-Carter-type decomposition mortality model, this approach is empirically based and includes the age, period, and cohort variables into the equation system. The model not only provides a fruitful intuition for explaining multivariate mortality change rates but also has a better performance in forecasting future patterns. Using the US and the UK mortality data and performing ten-year out-of-sample tests, our approach shows smaller mean square errors in both countries compared to the models in the literature.

Keywords: longevity risk, stochastic mortality model, multivariate mortality rate, risk management

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Authors: Ljiljana Seric, Vladimir Divic, Marin Bugaric

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This paper presents methodology for spatial analysis of GIS data that is used for assessing the microlocation risk index from potential damages of high winds. The analysis is performed on freely available GIS data comprising information about wind load, terrain cover and topography of the area. The methodology utilizes the legislation of Eurocode norms for determination of wind load of buildings and constructions. The core of the methodology is adoption of the wind load parameters related to location on geographical spatial grid. Presented work is a part of the Wind Risk Project, supported by the European Commission under the Civil Protection Financial Instrument of the European Union (ECHO). The partners involved in Wind Risk project performed Wind Risk assessment and proposed action plan for three European countries – Slovenia, Croatia and Germany. The proposed method is implemented in GRASS GIS open source GIS software and demonstrated for Case study area of wider area of Split, Croatia. Obtained Wind Risk Index is visualized and correlated with critical infrastructures like buildings, roads and power lines. The results show good correlation between high Wind Risk Index with recent incidents related to wind.

Keywords: Eurocode norms, GIS, spatial analysis, wind distribution, wind risk

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Authors: Sunita Patel

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Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of morbidity as well as mortality in India. Objective of this study is to examine CVDs prevalence and identify their behavioral and cultural risk factors with the help of SAGE-2007 data conducted on 6th states in India. Findings reveal that 18.3% of people diagnosed with CVDs in India. Higher disease occurs in an increasing rate between ages of 30-39 having OR 2.45 (CI: 1.66-3.63) and 70+ age OR 7.45 (CI: 4.82-11.49) times higher compare to 18-29 age group respectively. Wealth quintile higher CVD occurs as 3rd in 60% (CI: 1.16-2.21) and in richest 5th quintile 58% (CI: 1.13-2.21) contrast to lowest quintile. Relative risk depicted that 22.4% in moderate and 44% in vigorous activity have less chance of diseases compare to who performed no work and those who consumed alcohol. Results reveal that policy prospect should be recommended and that it would be beneficial for awareness of people and their future.

Keywords: behavioral risk, cultural risk, cardio-vascular diseases, wealth quintile

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Authors: George Mariano Soriano

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In this study, a Rapid Earthquake Risk Ranking Criteria was formulated by integrating various existing maps and databases by the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) and Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Utilizing Geographic Information System (GIS) software, the above-mentioned maps and databases were used in extracting seismic hazard parameters and bridge vulnerability characteristics in order to rank the seismic damage risk rating of bridges in the National Capital Region.

Keywords: bridge, earthquake, GIS, hazard, risk, vulnerability

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Authors: Molly Gerrish

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This work explores the physical, emotional, social, and cognitive risks and benefits related to nature-based teaching and highlights the importance of promoting a sustainable workforce within early childhood programs. Assessing and managing risks can help programs reimagine their approach to teaching, learning, recruitment, family connectivity, and staff motivation. The importance of staff sustainability and motivation/engagement related to social justice and the environment will be discussed. We will explore ways to manage fears and limitations faced by early childhood programs regarding nature experiences and risky play in a variety of locations using a lens of place-based learning. We will also examine the alignment of sustainability and social-emotional development, mental health supports, social awareness, and risk assessment. The work will discuss the varied perceptions of risk in diverse areas and the impact on the early childhood workforce. Motivational theory and compassion resiliency are hallmarks of both recruiting and retaining high-quality early childhood educators; the work will discuss how to balance programmatic constraints and healthy motivation for students and teachers while empowering individuals to advocate for their mental health and well-being. Finally, the work will highlight the positive impact of nature-based teaching practices and the overall benefit to young children and their educators.

Keywords: child’s rights, inclusion, nature-based education, risk assessment

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Authors: Mohamed Fairooz Abdul Khir

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The linkage between liability for risk and legitimacy of reward is a governing principle that must be fully observed in financial transactions. It is the cornerstone of any Islamic business or financial deal. The absence of risk taking principle may give rise to numerous prohibited elements such as ribā, gharar and gambling that violate the objectives of financial transactions. However, fiqhī domains from which it emanates have not been clearly spelled out by the scholars. In addition, the concept of risk taking in relation to contemporary risks associated with financial contracts, such as credit risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and market risk, needs further scrutiny as regard their Sharīʿah bases. Hence, this study is imperatively significant to prove that absence of risk taking concept in Islamic financial instruments give rise to prohibited elements particularly ribā. This study is primarily intended to clarify the concept of risk in Islamic financial transactions from the fiqhī perspective and evaluate analytically the selected issues involving risk taking based on the established concept of risk taking from fiqhī viewpoint. The selected issues are amongst others charging cost of fund on defaulting customers, holding the lessee liable for total loss of leased asset under ijārah thumma al-bayʿ and capital guarantee under mushārakah based instruments. This is a library research in which data has been collected from various materials such as classical fiqh books, regulators’ policy guidelines and journal articles. This study employed deductive and inductive methods to analyze the data critically in search for conclusive findings. It suggests that business risks have to be evaluated based on their subjects namely (i) property (māl) and (ii) work (ʿamal) to ensure that Islamic financial instruments structured based on certain Sharīʿah principles are not diverted from the risk taking concept embedded in them. Analysis of the above selected cases substantiates that when risk taking principle is breached, the prohibited elements such as ribā, gharar and maysir do arise and that they impede the realization of the maqāṣid al-Sharīʿah intended from Islamic financial contracts.

Keywords: Islamic finance, ownership risk, ribā, risk taking

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Authors: Nael Y. Zabel, Maged E. Georgy, Moheeb E. Ibrahim

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A knowledge-based expert system with the acronym RASPE is developed as an application tool to help decision makers in construction companies make informed decisions about managing risks in pipeline construction projects. Choosing to use expert systems from all available artificial intelligence techniques is due to the fact that an expert system is more suited to representing a domain’s knowledge and the reasoning behind domain-specific decisions. The knowledge-based expert system can capture the knowledge in the form of conditional rules which represent various project scenarios and potential risk mitigation/response actions. The built knowledge in RASPE is utilized through the underlying inference engine that allows the firing of rules relevant to a project scenario into consideration. This paper provides an overview of the knowledge acquisition process and goes about describing the knowledge structure which is divided up into four major modules. The paper shows one module in full detail for illustration purposes and concludes with insightful remarks.

Keywords: expert system, knowledge management, pipeline projects, risk mismanagement

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Authors: Babak Mirbaha, Mahmoud Saffarzadeh, Atieh Asgari Toorzani

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Pedestrians are the most vulnerable road users since they do not have a protective shell. One of the most common collisions for them is pedestrian-vehicle at intersections. In order to develop appropriate countermeasures to improve safety for them, researches have to be conducted to identify the factors that affect the risk of getting involved in such collisions. More specifically, this study investigates factors such as the influence of walking alone or having a baby while crossing the street, the observable age of pedestrian, the speed of pedestrians and the speed of approaching vehicles on risk perception of pedestrians. A nested logit model was used for modeling the behavioral structure of pedestrians. The results show that the presence of more lanes at intersections and not being alone especially having a baby while crossing, decrease the probability of taking a risk among pedestrians. Also, it seems that teenagers show more risky behaviors in crossing the street in comparison to other age groups. Also, the speed of approaching vehicles was considered significant. The probability of risk taking among pedestrians decreases by increasing the speed of approaching vehicle in both the first and the second lanes of crossings.

Keywords: pedestrians, intersection, nested logit, risk

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Authors: Ezri Coda, Kris Justine Miparanum, Relvin Jay Sale

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The study dealt on suicide risk level of college students in UM Tagum College. The primary goal of the study was to assess the level of suicide risk among students at the UM Tagum College in terms of perceived burdensomeness, low belongingness/social alienation and acquired ability to enact lethal self-injury utilizing quantitative non- experimental study with 380 students in UM Tagum College as respondents of the study. Mean was the statistical tools used for the data treatment. Moreover, the study aims to determine the mean of the level of the suicide risk assessment in terms of program, type of student, age, year level, civil status and gender, and lastly, to design an intervention program for those identified students with high suicide risk. Results showed a low level of suicide risk in terms of perceived burdensomeness, low belongingness/social alienation and acquired ability to enact lethal self-injury.

Keywords: suicide risk, perceived burdensomeness, low belongingness/social alienation, acquired ability to enact lethal self-injury, UM Tagum College, Philippines

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Authors: Mohamed Chabi

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The project of helping students at risk started at the Math department in the new foundation program at Qatar University in the fall 2012 semester. The purpose was to find ways to help students who were struggling with their math courses Elementary algebra or Precalculus course due to many factors. Department had formed the Committee “students at Risk” at the start of 12-13 to assist struggling students in our math courses to get their studies on track. A mechanism was developed to support students who are at risk using a developed E-Monitoring system. E-Monitoring system was developed to manage automatically all transactions relevant to the students’ attendance, Students ‘‘warning Students’’ grading, etc. E-Monitoring System produce various statistics such as, Overall course statistics, Performance, Students at Risk… to help department to develop a higher quality of education in the Foundation Program at Math department. The mechanism was studies and evaluated. Whatever the cause, the sooner we identify students who are not performing well academically, the sooner we can provide, or direct them to the resources that are available to them. In this paper, we outline the mechanism and its effect on students’ performance. The collected data from various exams shows that students had benefited from the mechanism.

Keywords: students at risk, e-monitoring system, warning students, performance

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Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan, Inga A. Koryagina, Eugenia V. Klicheva

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In modern conditions, scientific judgment of problems in developing mechanisms of value creation and risk management acquires special relevance. Formation of economic knowledge has resulted in the constant analysis of consumer behavior for all players from national and world markets. Effective mechanisms development of the demand analysis, crucial for consumer's characteristics of future production, and the risks connected with the development of this production are the main objectives of control systems in modern conditions. The modern period of economic development is characterized by a high level of globalization of business and rigidity of competition. At the same time, the considerable share of new products and services costs has a non-material intellectual nature. The most successful in Russia is the contemporary development of small innovative firms. Such firms, through their unique technologies and new approaches to process management, which form the basis of their intellectual capital, can show flexibility and succeed in the market. As a rule, such enterprises should have very variable structure excluding the tough scheme of submission and demanding essentially new incentives for inclusion of personnel in innovative activity. Realization of similar structures, as well as a new approach to management, can be constructed based on value-oriented management which is directed to gradual change of consciousness of personnel and formation from groups of adherents included in the solution of the general innovative tasks. At the same time, valuable changes can gradually capture not only innovative firm staff, but also the structure of its corporate partners. Introduction of new technologies is the significant factor contributing to the development of new valuable imperatives and acceleration of the changing values systems of the organization. It relates to the fact that new technologies change the internal environment of the organization in a way that the old system of values becomes inefficient in new conditions. Introduction of new technologies often demands change in the structure of employee’s interaction and training in their new principles of work. During the introduction of new technologies and the accompanying change in the value system, the structure of the management of the values of the organization is changing. This is due to the need to attract more staff to justify and consolidate the new value system and bring their view into the motivational potential of the new value system of the organization.

Keywords: value, risk, creation, problems, organization

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Authors: Samuel Owoade, Zainab Idowu, Idris Ajibade, Abel Uzoka

Abstract:

Cloud computing adoption continues to soar, with 83% of enterprise workloads estimated to be in the cloud by 2022. However, this rapid migration raises security concerns, needing strong security management solutions to safeguard sensitive data and essential applications. This paper investigates the critical role of technical project managers in orchestrating security management initiatives for cloud environments, evaluating their responsibilities, challenges, and best practices for assuring the resilience and integrity of cloud infrastructures. Drawing from a comprehensive review of industry reports and interviews with cloud security experts, this research highlights the multifaceted landscape of security management in cloud environments. Despite the rapid adoption of cloud services, only 25% of organizations have matured their cloud security practices, indicating a pressing need for effective management strategies. This paper proposes a strategy framework adapted to the demands of technical project managers, outlining the important components of effective cloud security management. Notably, 76% of firms identify misconfiguration as a major source of cloud security incidents, underlining the significance of proactive risk assessment and constant monitoring. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the importance of technical project managers in facilitating cross-functional collaboration, bridging the gap between cybersecurity professionals, cloud architects, compliance officers, and IT operations teams. With 68% of firms seeing difficulties integrating security policies into their cloud systems, effective communication and collaboration are critical to success. Case studies from industry leaders illustrate the practical use of security management projects in cloud settings. These examples demonstrate the importance of technical project managers in using their expertise to address obstacles and generate meaningful outcomes, with 92% of firms reporting improved security practices after implementing proactive security management tactics. In conclusion, this research underscores the critical role of technical project managers in safeguarding cloud environments against evolving threats. By embracing their role as guardians of the cloud realm, project managers can mitigate risks, optimize resource utilization, and uphold the trust and integrity of cloud infrastructures in an era of digital transformation.

Keywords: cloud security, security management, technical project management, cybersecurity, cloud infrastructure, risk management, compliance

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Authors: Muhammad Afzal, Shahbaz Mushtaq, Duc-Anh-An-Vo, Kathryn Reardon Smith, Thanh Ma

Abstract:

Climate change has become one of the most challenging environmental issues in the 21st century. Climate change-induced natural disasters, especially floods, are the major factors of livelihood vulnerability, impacting millions of individuals worldwide. Evaluating and mitigating the effects of floods requires an in-depth understanding of the relationship between vulnerability and livelihood capital assets. Using an integrated approach, sustainable livelihood framework, and system thinking approach, the study developed a conceptual model of a generalized livelihood system in District Rajanpur, Pakistan. The model visualizes the livelihood vulnerability system as a whole and identifies the key feedback loops likely to influence the livelihood vulnerability. The study suggests that such conceptual models provide effective communication and understanding tools to stakeholders and decision-makers to anticipate the problem and design appropriate policies. It can also serve as an evaluation technique for rural livelihood policy and identify key systematic interventions. The key finding of the study reveals that household income, health, and education are the major factors behind the livelihood vulnerability of the rural poor of District Rajanpur. The Pakistani government tried to reduce the livelihood vulnerability of the region through different income, health, and education programs, but still, many changes are required to make these programs more effective especially during the flood times. The government provided only cash to vulnerable and marginalized families through income support programs, but this study suggests that along with the cash, the government must provide seed storage facilities and access to crop insurance to the farmers. Similarly, the government should establish basic health units in villages and frequent visits of medical mobile vans should be arranged with advanced medical lab facilities during and after the flood.

Keywords: livelihood vulnerability, rural communities, flood, sustainable livelihood framework, system dynamics, Pakistan

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Authors: Oyuntsetseg Sandag, Lkhagvadorj Khosbayar, Naidansuren Tsendeekhuu, Densenbal Dansran, Bandi Solongo

Abstract:

Introduction: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common disorder affecting at least 2% to 4% of the adult population. It is estimated that nearly 80% of men and 93% of women with moderate to severe sleep apnea are undiagnosed. A number of screening questionnaires and clinical screening models have been developed to help identify patients with OSA, also it’s indeed to clinical practice. Purpose of study: Determine dependence of obstructive sleep apnea between for severe risk and risk factor. Material and Methods: A cross-sectional study included 114 patients presenting from theCentral state 3th hospital and Central state 1th hospital. Patients who had obstructive sleep apnea (OSA)selected in this study. Standard StopBang questionnaire was obtained from all patients.According to the patients’ response to the StopBang questionnaire was divided into low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk.Descriptive statistics were presented mean ± standard deviation (SD). Each questionnaire was compared on the likelihood ratio for a positive result, the likelihood ratio for a negative test result of regression. Statistical analyses were performed utilizing SPSS 16. Results: 114 patients were obtained (mean age 48 ± 16, male 57)that divided to low risk 54 (47.4%), intermediate risk 33 (28.9%), high risk 27 (23.7%). Result of risk factor showed significantly increasing that mean age (38 ± 13vs. 54 ± 14 vs. 59 ± 10, p<0.05), blood pressure (115 ± 18vs. 133 ± 19vs. 142 ± 21, p<0.05), BMI(24 IQR 22; 26 vs. 24 IQR 22; 29 vs. 28 IQR 25; 34, p<0.001), neck circumference (35 ± 3.4 vs. 38 ± 4.7 vs. 41 ± 4.4, p<0.05)were increased. Results from multiple logistic regressions showed that age is significantly independently factor for OSA (odds ratio 1.07, 95% CI 1.02-1.23, p<0.01). Predictive value of age was significantly higher factor for OSA (AUC=0.833, 95% CI 0.758-0.909, p<0.001). Our study showing that risk of OSA is beginning 47 years old (sensitivity 78.3%, specifity74.1%). Conclusions: According to most of all patients’ response had intermediate risk and high risk. Also, age, blood pressure, neck circumference and BMI were increased such as risk factor was increased for OSA. Especially age is independently factor and highest significance for OSA. Patients’ age one year is increased likelihood risk factor 1.1 times is increased.

Keywords: obstructive sleep apnea, Stop-Bang, BMI (Body Mass Index), blood pressure

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